Establishment economics hits a new low

We live under the tyranny of the Bank of England and OBR. Politicians have given powers away to these so called independent bodies, only to discover they are unable to make accurate forecasts whilst recommending policies which lurch us from high inflation to no growth. Many of the electorate take the more traditional view that Ministers are elected to sift the advice and make good decisions. If inflation is too high or growth is too low voters blame the government. As we approach the next election voters face the problem that the main Opposition party thinks the problems of inflation and growth require more powers to be surrendered to the very bodies that have caused much of the bad outcomes so far. Why take more of the same medicine when it has proved to be harmful so far?

Over my time as an MP to date  the record of the Bank of England has been poor for much of that period. The Bank along with the Treasury, the CBI and the Labour party nagged the Conservative government of the 1980s into the European Exchange Rate Mechanism. All the time I was Margaret Thatcher’s economic adviser we stayed out of this system, which was obviously going to be destabilising and damaging as I set out in a booklet before the event. When they had their way it gave us first a rapid inflation as the Bank created money to try to keep the exchange rate down to the limits of the scheme, and then caused a deep recession when they had to arrest the inflation with an intense money squeeze to try to save the pound. That wrote off the period 1988- 94 and ended the Conservative government.

In the period 2005-8 the Bank allowed a massive expansion of credit as the Treasury went for an increase of spending and borrowing at the same time. The Conservative Opposition warned the government that this was dangerous and inflationary. So it proved. Then the Bank did the opposite and squeezed money and credit too hard, threatening the solvency of the banks. I warned against such an extreme lurch, but they were determined. Only when some of  the largest banks in  the land were teetering on the edge of collapse did they relent. They had to undertake a very expensive bail out of leading banks brought on by their own folly. As Gordon Brown was an important influence on the thinking behind decisions he ultimately had to take it was fitting Labour were thrown out of office for the big crash of 2008.

In the response to the covid lockdowns the Bank understandably made a  large amount of money available to prop bond markets and offset some of the damaging economic consequences of widespread closures. Unfortunately the Bank continued with this policy throughout 2021, recovery year, in a way that was bound to be inflationary. So it proved. Now they are trying to overcorrect by taking large losses on bonds they paid too much for and reducing  the money supply.

What a pity the experts of the Bank have not yet learned from these dreadful boom/bust swings that creating too much money or allowing too much credit is inflationary, and allowing too little brings on a  recession. This is a clear case where expertise needs to be challenged, and experts with better forecasting records should be listened to more.

125 Comments

  1. Mark B
    January 7, 2024

    Good morning.

    The Bank along with the Treasury, the CBI and the Labour party nagged the Conservative government of the 1980s into the European Exchange Rate Mechanism.

    Begging your pardon, Sir John but that is not how I remember it.

    I seem to remember that one side of your party was, and the other not. Labour’s position changed from one that was anti-ECC/ EU to pro but only after the fall of Michael Foot, and even then they sat mostly on the fence pointing out the divisions in your party.

    After 14 long years on office it is a bit too late to be blaming others, whether it be in part or in whole, for the problems we now face.

    No mention of the ‘Schoolboy errors’ which led to mass fraud during the SCAMDEMIC which your party leader is directly responsible for. No mention of the numerous promises made and never kept. All these were within your parties purview.

    I am sorry, Sir John but, even if everything you write were indeed 100% correct you and your party are the ones wielding the power. The fact that you never wielded it to our benefit is what will condemn you.

    1. Hope
      January 7, 2024

      Cameron was going to have a bonfire of quangos and no one in public sector to earn more than PM. How are these policies coming along after 14 years JR?

      Has your party even tried to reverse Blaire’s policies? How about reversing the politicising of civil service, reverse equality rot that is in fact the opposite, reverse left/Marxist education?, deliver Brexit?

      Come on JR, start blaming your PMs, ministers and MPs.

      1. hefner
        January 7, 2024

        And look what Sir John is doing again: in his first sentence he puts together the BoE and the OBR, then nowhere else does he talk about the OBR. Isn’t that dishonesty, specially when the OBR was a Conservative creation in 2010?
        Then talking about the origin of the 2007-2008 banking crisis: nothing about the US subprime mortgages, all because of Brown?
        And who spent hours and days trying to fix the mess? Redwood. No way. Brown, Darling and people in the Treasury.
        Isn’t it easy to be Il Commendatore and comment safely from the side of the Cornerstore Group, the Common Sense Group or whatever is the latest name of the group of well-past-their-sell-by-date MPs.

        Reply You have commented on other posts which have pointed out big errors by OBR. I have offered alternative ways forward in advance of each wrong lurch.m

        1. A-tracy
          January 7, 2024

          Hefner, I believe the subprime mortgage crisis stemmed from an earlier expansion of mortgage credit, including to borrowers who previously would have had difficulty getting mortgages, I knew a young man who became a mortgage arranger with no qualifications, helping people to get 100% and sometimes 110% mortgages even with unsteady credit ratings which the Labour government facilitated copying the Clinton era in the States, I remember their favourite banks were Northern Rock and RBS. This sort of lending contributed to rapidly rising home prices and people unable to pay down the mortgages.

          I wonder could we get this again with a labour government wanting to build loads of substandard homes cheap, I keep hearing them talking about the number of homes built after the war but a lot of those flats have had to be floored, a lot of the homes have had to virtually be rebuilt and all the tin houses can’t get mortgages.

          Our interest rates have followed Americas patterns our under 2% bank rates followed the pattern in America, just how much control does the British government have, we just seem to fall in line with 25% corp tax of the G7 group, social taxes of Europe. Both UK parties just seem to be the opposing cheeks of the same backside.

          1. Hope
            January 7, 2024

            I thought Clinton abandoning Steagle and Glass led to the bank problems after Roservelt imposed restrictions to prevent banks making such errors previously. Brown and Blaire followed Clinton and led to sub prime disaster. Clinton made banking changes to get black vote.

      2. glen cullen
        January 7, 2024

        What bonfire ….they’ve increased the number of quangos, even the number of peers ….and they still haven’t repealed any EU laws

    2. Sir Joe Soap
      January 7, 2024

      Final sentence is spot on.
      By your actions etc.
      Also to point out that despite Sir John pleading the case, the only reason so much money had to be made available in 2020 was due to the stupidity of keeping healthy under 40 year olds from working or spending. All the while Downing Street was partying, so they knew that this total lockdown was a scam.All totally unnecessary once an initial uncertainty period of about 8 weeks had passed. Also to pay for daft PPE and tracking schemes.

      1. A-tracy
        January 7, 2024

        Sir Joe, did you not hear the clammer for more and more PPE, go and look at google at all the newspaper reports from April when hospital staff were telling us they were in bin bags and had no PPE and it was killing them, pressure was on to buy it in quickly, normal suppliers couldn’t get the supplies in time, there was stock missing from NHS procurement (that isn’t government that is NHS management failure).

        The tracking scheme was mainly testing, people queued up in their millions for their free test kits, their drive in test centres, walk in test centres, they wanted the free tests to continue months longer than they needed to be some were testing daily!! When they were being phased out people were moaning but now moan money was spent on it. People have short memories, tracking failed because people lied about who they had been near to, they didn’t have full lists because to have full lists they’d have to admit they were breaching rules and those in workplaces didn’t want to stop all their colleagues from their liberty unless they tested positive.

      2. Donna
        January 9, 2024

        Correct. The Government – on the advice of its Scientists – officially downgraded Covid from a High Consequence Infectious Disease five days before the first lockdown was imposed. The justification was the availability of more data and the knowledge that it would have low rates of mortality.

        It would have taken at least 3 weeks for the process of downgrading to be completed from the initial assessments of severity/mortality, through scrutiny of the results, possible challenges from other scientists and Ministers, to agreement – and then drafting and agreeing the Comms and finally publishing it.

        They KNEW it wasn’t the crisis they subsequently claimed – yet went ahead with the lockdown, wrecked our economy and ruined millions of lives. Not once have I heard the so-called Public Inquiry KC question any of the so-called witnesses about these FACTS.

        I think NATO members and the Five Eye countries were effectively ordered to lock down. It’s noticeable that at that time Sweden, which didn’t lock down, was not in NATO.

    3. Mickey Taking
      January 7, 2024

      wielding power? The most indecisive, unclear, contrary, lying, confused, divisional , weather vane swinging bunch of hopeless misfits for the role of MP that I can ever remember.

      1. glen cullen
        January 7, 2024

        Can only agree

    4. Lynn Atkinson
      January 8, 2024

      You are wrong. The Labour Party had a wholehearted EU wing and allowed Michael Foot, an anti-Common Marketeer to ‘write the longest suicide note in history’. Unfortunately he took the issue he was right about down with the ship that sunk under the weight of all the rest of the rubbish. The Labour Globalists were ecstatic. They had destroyed the anti-EU wing of their party and full steam ahead.

  2. Iain gill
    January 7, 2024

    The FCA and Financial Ombudsman Service are just as bad, if not worse, at their roles.
    Hotbeds of diversity hires, and active discrimination against white males. But case studies in how not to deliver your core service with anything like acceptable quality. Together with fraudulent complaints process which just hides their own mistakes.

    1. Bloke
      January 7, 2024

      Those who are paid for responsibility should be charged for the damage their failure causes, just as a manufacturer is liable and has to pay for selling a product that fails. Even a 100% rebate or imprisonment would be more suited than awarding the idiots seats in the House of Lords as if they had done something helpful.

    2. Peter
      January 7, 2024

      ‘Establishment economics hits a new low’ ?

      Meanwhile, former Conservative David Gauke, the darling of ‘Conservative Home’ now has not one but two articles in the current edition of the ‘New Statesman’ – both of them advising the ‘Tory Right’.

      So a new style of ‘broad church’ politician holds sway for whom electoral failure is just a minor setback.

  3. Lynn Atkinson
    January 7, 2024

    Yes, it’s pretty easy to pick the experts to depend on, you look at their record of prediction against what actually happened.
    The electorates problem is that any MP with the wit to point this strategy out is barred from power by the Party establishments. That is how they ‘hide’ the idiocy of their chosen majority.
    What do we do when there is no electoral fix? Now that is the question that puts ‘to be or not to be’ into the no-brainier category.
    The political and state (civil service) class is defying the electorate on every front. The position is existential.
    What is the fix?

    1. RDM
      January 7, 2024

      @Lynn Atkinson

      Well Said!

      I would go further. You would need to explain how much influence (Strings, control) members of the HoL have over the marjority of MP’s! I would explain it by accepting that MP’s have become ‘EcoYes Men!’, and that should tell you who is Pulling the Strings the hardest, though senior members of the HoL!

      What do we do? Start by Reforming the HoL!
      Reform Monarchy (Move to a completely symbolic King Harry).
      Remove the independence of the BoE?
      Treasury Orthodoxy, and Establisment alignment with the ECB/EU!
      Back under the chancellor (But, we would end up back to where we were, with a very short term decision period, <= 5 years)?
      ?

    2. Original Richard
      January 7, 2024

      Lynn Atkinson : “What is the fix?”

      Do not vote for any of the uniparty candidates at the next GE.

      Einstein’s definition of insanity wea to to do the same thing over and over again expecting a different result.

      1. Narrow Shoulders
        January 7, 2024

        Spoil your paper and encourage single issue parties to rise in the next election.

        If everyone who didn’t bother to vote plus others spoiled their paper then none of the above would be the biggest party.

        That would drive change and they would have to give us things to vote for rather than against

        1. Mickey Taking
          January 7, 2024

          spoil your paper means bothering to go out and vote, ask yourself why bother?
          Spoiled papers will be counted in dozens, possibly hundreds, lowest ever turnout will be counted in thousands.

          1. Original Richard
            January 7, 2024

            MT : “spoil your paper means bothering to go out and vote.”

            That’s why spoiling the ballot paper is so much more effective than simply not voting.

            Adding a note to the ballot paper also assists.

            If a large number of voters spoiled their ballot papers our politicians would have to take notice whilst non-voters they can simply ignore.

            Hence I will bother to vote and will spoil my ballot paper with a suitable message if I do not have the option to vote for a candidate who does not support Net Zero and does not support mass immigration.

          2. Mickey Taking
            January 7, 2024

            O.Richard – only the ballot paper counters see what you wrote and probably never read it anyway.

          3. Original Richard
            January 8, 2024

            MT :

            They couldn’t ignore it if the number of spoilt ballot papers were in the thousands, or even hundreds.

        2. glen cullen
          January 7, 2024

          Vote with conviction ….however every ballot paper should include a ‘none of the above’ tick
          Isn’t it surprising that either Labour or Tory have ever argued for that inclusion on the ballot

          Reply The aim is to choose the best of those running.Get involved with a local party and seek to put someone else up if you dont like the choices. People who really do want to be negative about all candidates can write that on the ballot paper if they must

          1. Mickey Taking
            January 7, 2024

            reply to reply….But prospective candidates are sifted at local level, right class, right schools, right views…..Then having voted from whatever shortlist, our dear old Central Office take over and overrule if required to meet the diversity quota, the friend of friends tests etc

            I very much doubt any of us outspoken types on here would get past the ‘right stuff’ required!
            Except maybe Reform.

          2. Original Richard
            January 7, 2024

            Reply to Reply :

            Unfortunately, we hear all the time of candidates being “parachuted” in from head office ahead of locally selected candidates.

            The reason is obvious. Hence the need to spoil the ballot paper as not voting at all is a terrible idea.

          3. glen cullen
            January 7, 2024

            Reply
            Spoiling the ballot paper can be deemed and recorded as a mistake or error, while ticking ‘none of the above’ is a positive choice and decision that one doesn’t like the proposed candidates ….the voting public don’t like ‘’spoiling’’ the only political choice they own, can’t you see that ?
            Even in parliament, during a vote, you’re allowed to abstain, which is recorded as a positive decision and not a mistake ….shouldn’t we be allowed that same privilege

          4. Al
            January 8, 2024

            Reply to Mickey Taking: “I very much doubt any of us outspoken types on here would get past the ‘right stuff’ required! Except maybe Reform.”

            There’s always Monster Raving Loony. Sadly, nowadays, some of their policies seem sane…

          5. Lynn Atkinson
            January 8, 2024

            Redwood is absolutely right. Surely we are past ‘protest’? Surely we want a fix? The fix is to SELECT a candidate for whom you can not only vote but campaign.
            For 30 years people have voted for UKIP in protest, HAS NOT WORKED! Incidentally I have NEVER voted for UKIP in any election. I face the fact that if I want the Tory out I’m putting the socialist in and vote that way. If you can’t make that decision – because that’s the choice, you have to stick with the Tory.

          6. Original Richard
            January 8, 2024

            gc :

            I don’t recall ever seeing a box “none of the above”.

            Does it exist and I have always missed it?

      2. Lynn Atkinson
        January 8, 2024

        You have never been at a count. Spoiled ballot papers are an irrelevance but you have voted so turnout figures look good.

      3. Lynn Atkinson
        January 8, 2024

        Agreed – now see UKIP since 1993 – why do the same thing again? Madness!

      4. Donna
        January 9, 2024

        Correct. When you want to initiate change, you first have to change your own behaviour. If you vote for the Uni-Party, you are voting to continue with the failed policies.

  4. Lemming
    January 7, 2024

    Happy New Year, and here we go again. “Establishment economics”? The banks do not run this country. The Conservatives do, and have done for 13 years. If things are going badly – and they are – the buck stops with the Conservatives, no one else

    1. oldwulf
      January 7, 2024

      @ Lemming

      Sadly, MPs do not “run” this country.
      They never have.

      As Mark Twain said “If voting made any difference they wouldn’t let us do it.”

      1. glen cullen
        January 7, 2024

        Wise Words

  5. Lynn Atkinson
    January 7, 2024

    So Sunak promises to fund tax cuts by reducing ‘benefits’. Benefits to whom – asylum seekers, foreign countries, foreign combatants?
    In addition he promises ‘tax cuts after the election’ 🤬what sort of fools does he think we are?
    He needs to implement the painless state reduction and spending reductions JR recites on this blog ad infinitum and he needs to get his skates on because the must ALL be implemented BEFORE the election with time for us all to see the increase in our finances.
    Then he has a minor chance of not being whitewashed!
    Else it’s curtains.

    1. Hope
      January 7, 2024

      LA,
      Who would believe a serial liar and back stabber? Particularly to those who tried to help him! If he said good morning to me I would look to the sky to check it was morning.

      1. Lynn Atkinson
        January 8, 2024

        I don’t ‘believe’ anyone. That’s what I am advocating – he’s over a barrel and only he seems unaware of the fact.

    2. Peter Wood
      January 7, 2024

      Tax cuts funded by reduced benefits… hard to make this nonsense up! First that should be cut are the virtue signalling nonsense policies, Net Zero, Foreign aid, illegal immigrants, and of course the grossly overweight Civil Service. This government is simply a vested interests ATM machine. It is a disgrace.

      1. Hope
        January 7, 2024

        Two weeks ago Snake gave welfare claimants an additional £299 for Christmas!! That is two weeks ago! Who gave welfare claimants extra this that and the other, a large proportion of who are……. Immigrants! Snake now wants us to believe sometime after he is elected he will cut taxes by reducing welfare! Why did this not occur over the last year to being down debt ie one of his five pledges! Snake and Hunt stopped the cut in civil service by 90,000. Again, if he wanted to being down debt that would be one of his first moves. I know he is going to cut NHS waiting lists by 8mporting 3.5 million people, 5% of our population- mass immigration being against the last manifesto he stated he would implement then abandoned!

      2. Iain gill
        January 7, 2024

        Correct no moral compass at all. No understanding of what the country does well, what it does badly, what can really be done about it. No understanding of how we pay our way in the world, or how that could be improved. No joined up vision, with interlinking and reinforcing of sensible policies. No integrity, no honesty, no delivery ability whatsoever. Shocking really that things have got so bad. The entire cabinet and shadow cabinet should be laughed out of office.

    3. Dave Andrews
      January 7, 2024

      Benefits includes the state pension. No mention so far as I can tell on ending the triple lock policy.
      This is a downright irresponsible announcement. There are many people in genuine need who depend on the goodwill of their fellow citizens for their welfare. Now they are going to be thrown into more anxiety that their poor lot is going to get worse.
      If they are going to reduce welfare and benefits by clamping down on fraud, that’s a good thing, but it isn’t exactly the signal of a change in policy.

      1. Christine
        January 7, 2024

        This Government is reaching out to foreigners and ex-pats who lived in the UK for only a few years encouraging them to purchase added years towards a UK state pension, even repeatedly extending the deadline to buy these credits. For as little as £3.45 a week, they can build up a sizable pension on top of the one from the country where they now live. Yet we hear that the triple lock is unaffordable. The only thing that is unaffordable in this country is the incompetence of our Government which puts foreigners and themselves ahead of the British people.

        1. Hope
          January 7, 2024

          Well said. Snake forgets what he promised less than a year ago. He also stated he would serve with I greatly and implement the 2019 manifesto knowing when he said it that he was acting against the manifesto with his mass immigration- the highest on record ie 3.5 million gross low paid dross from around the world. Any wonder why Hint claims tax cuts are not possible!!

      2. graham1946
        January 7, 2024

        1) Pensions are not a benefit. The government regards them as a benefit, so I once wrote to a Chancellor and said that as benefits are not taxed could I have all the tax I have paid on my ‘benefit’ back. Of course no reply came. Pensions are paid for. What the governments did with the money is not our fault.
        2) The triple lock was introduced because the pension is so poor that pensioners could not accept the inflation the government causes. It is still the lowest pension in the civilised world and does not even come up to half the notional average wage. If they downgrade the triple lock, they are toast and I cannot see any party doing it. It must be kept in line with inflation, which does not actually increase its value and with incomes or pensioners will be left behind again. We still remember a year or two ago when they washed out the triple lock promise and I for one cannot wait to get into the voting booth to punish them for that and all the other things they have done to us. There is plenty of fat to be trimmed elsewhere. If some pensioners are wealthy they can be dealt with in the tax system There are millions of pensioners who are not wealthy and its a disgrace, whilst the politicians sail on with big increases in their already high pay unconcerned.

      3. Narrow Shoulders
        January 7, 2024

        Benefits should not be a lifestyle. If you are nit supporting yourself then life should be tough

      4. Iain gill
        January 7, 2024

        Many people are on benefits because of state policies, forcing them to live in jobless areas, displacing them from the workforce with immigrants, discouraging enterprise and work in many many ways.
        The conservatives are unelectable, and rightly so. I fear what labour will do. We need a complete reset.

        1. A-tracy
          January 7, 2024

          I agree Iain, when you live in those Labour areas you can see more clearly, even when they were in power 13 years your area gets left out, taken for granted and wrecked. I fear what is coming next too for younger entrepreneurs and business people up to their neck in business loans and debts. I suspect even more of the French social taxes on the sitting duck paye employees, and their employers, the French are raising the cap on their equivalent NI, however, at least the French still get to retire 62-64 if they’ve contributed 43 years. I know business people trying to sell up and get out this year and they can’t, people stuck with unused commercial property. The changes proposed from day one as Angela promised on employment rights is going to cause a rise in vexatious claims again, hiring people will be worse than getting married at least you can get divorced, ending zero-hours relief work is going to put lots of retired people back surviving on just their pensions and private business will start to slow except for the State connected ones.

    4. A-tracy
      January 7, 2024

      Lynn, even when they did put the threshold on NI up by 27% in July 2022 no ones seems to have noticed or acknowledged it, all day yesterday I read how NI thresholds were frozen so the drop from 12% to 10% won’t be worth anything, lazy journalism and no kick back from government, Sunak’s message even got an incorrect community note on it.

      If people don’t acknowledge any concessions then the left will think we don’t need to bother, they’re not bothered about paying more NI. National insurance pay outs are all considered ‘benefits’.

      Before pensioners moan, “NI reductions don’t affect us”, you have had the best of the State pension system, you haven’t been paying employees NI (employers NI continued) from the age of 65 even if you continued working, now all people men and women are facing 66-70 years of age before their State pension kicks in and thats if it ever starts. We are in total danger of losing the national ‘insurance’ connection, with suggestions of tax just getting lumped together as one income tax, we need to resist, we should instead have forced them to separate out healthcare and pension and instead of a sneaky 5% extra workplace pension we should be told what % of our national insurance contribution is specifically for the State pension system, is it 6%, Healthcare 7% or now 5% and 5% as it is reduced to 10%. The employer pays 13.8% that was supposed to be an element into the workers pension 6% – so 12% per employee going in, 7% into healthcare, 0.8% into unemployment, otherwise why are employers being charged for hiring people?

      That 5% workplace pension contribution everyone has been encouraged into over 39 years won’t buy you anything like the current State pension return (no siree there will be a lot of disappointed people).

      Basically we are getting French social security aligned but without their earlier retirement ages. When I started work at 16 I was told my retirement age was 60, then we were told we had to equalise because of the EU and now its 67 because we’re all living too long, even though excess deaths have never been so high as those in the last five years.

    5. Original Richard
      January 7, 2024

      Lynn Atkinson ; “So Sunak promises to fund tax cuts by reducing ‘benefits’. Benefits to whom – asylum seekers, foreign countries, foreign combatants?”

      Now that the hotels are full the Establishment are buying up new properties for them. I would not be surprised to learn next that each new asylum seeker will receive a new bev in order to boost the Establisment’s bev sales figutres.

  6. DOM
    January 7, 2024

    Hit the proverbial nail on the head with a crunching whack.

    Osborne’s cowardice in creating the Europhile OBR was an act of appalling political Blairite treachery.

    The QUANGO obsession is destroying and is meant to destroy democratic accountability while handing huge power to unelected lefty grifters

    We need a party in government with the BIGGEST balls to destroy the authoritarian Blair woke legacy in all its various manifestations before it ‘eats’ us all alive

  7. Ian Wraggg
    January 7, 2024

    You ask why non of these experts ever learn. Well it’s pretty obvious because they don’t work for Britain bur follow the trends of external bodies luke the UN and WEF and Eu
    It’s a disgrace that what is obvious to the taxpayer is 180 degrees from what the establishment does. Immigration and net zero being the most obvious.

    1. Hope
      January 7, 2024

      IW,
      They do not need to learn. MPs/govt take back control from BOE scrap useless quangos and act on what they are elected to do. Novel idea, but that is democracy. JR highlights, once again, they are a scape goat for poor governance by his party and JR uses them them frequently as the xcuse for his govt/party failings!

    2. Lynn Atkinson
      January 7, 2024

      They pay no personal price for being wrong. That’s why they never learn.

    3. Original Richard
      January 7, 2024

      IW :

      Correct, which is why the current Government needs to not only lose the next GE but to be decimated at the next GE to remove all the Establishment MPs and, more importantly, to teach the Establishment that not carrying out the promises made at election time carries a very heavy penalty.

  8. Lifelogic
    January 7, 2024

    Well these incompetent organisations are not really “independent”. Osborne appointed the incompetent lefty, green loon, PPE Grad, Mark Carney and Sunak appointed the Andrew Bailey, a man who gave us all one size for all circs 40% personal overdraft rates while at the FCA. Economic lunacy and market rigging. It is largely governments amd ministers to blame. They after all wasted £ billions on lockdowns, HS2, test and trace, net zero, net harm vaccines, PPE procurement, incompetent defence procurement…Almost all MPs idiotically still support net zero and the climate change act/religion.

    So Rachael Reeves struggles on £86k plus (very generous expenses) PA it seems and I assume she has no student debt but in London you do due to vast tax levels, green crap energy costs & housing costs. Meanwhile junior doctors start on just £30k and many have over £100k of student debt and £7k PA of interest on it. Note this student interest is paid from post tax and NI income too.

    But Labour have not said they will restore junior doctors pay with a 35% increase.

    1. Lynn Atkinson
      January 7, 2024

      Any increase needs to be funded by scrapping waste in the NHS! Including ‘diversity managers’ etc.

    2. A-tracy
      January 7, 2024

      What do you mean by “this student interest is paid from post tax and NI income?”

      Student loan repayments are 9% of gross income over the personal allowance dependent on which plan you are on. Those on the older plan 1 started paying down their loan from £16,000 (now £22,015) at 9%
      Plan 2 loans (those English students studying from 2012) £27,295.
      Plan 5 loans (those English students studying from 2023) £25,000.

      There are other students who do five and six year degrees, music students for example, PhD scientists, actuaries do fellowship examinations, lawyers do extra training, scientists, vets etc.
      https://www.medicineanswered.com/why-are-some-medical-courses-4-5-6-years-in-length

      It seems one university can do a medical course in 4.5 years so perhaps we need to start to look at how they do that. Year 5 seems to be a clinical year when training continues in teaching hospitals. (Are tuition fees for that year paid by the NHS for the student or not? Are tuition fees paid by the NHS then linked to a buy out clause?)

      If your newly qualified doctor is earning £30,000 his student loan repayment = will be £243.45 per year (or £20 per month).

      The plan 2 loan was designed to be unable to pay it off so the graduate pays 9% tax over the threshold for 30 years, contrary to what is often said many people did pay off plan 1 already and are on their way to doing so because they started paying back from much lower earnings.

      1. Lifelogic
        January 7, 2024

        What the repayment arrangement is is not really the main point. The interest still accrues so if you do not pay the interest then the debt keeps increasing. To repay 100k of student debt takes about £20K of you salary for ten years. The debt mean you often cannot borrow for mortgages too due to affordability rules.

      2. Lifelogic
        January 7, 2024

        “What do you mean by “this student interest is paid from post tax and NI income?””

        Well I mean exactly what I said. The 9% over x is just the minimum payment demanded. Interest still accrues and unless you take career breaks will likely have to be paid off.

        1. A-tracy
          January 7, 2024

          Have you worked out a doctors 9% contribution estimate from gross income over 30 years or ‘past tax income’?

          I have three children with these loans I know exactly how they work, my eldest has paid his off because he was plan 1 and was paying 9% from £16k, the other two will be stuck with 9% grad tax for 30 years, unless they earn over the inflation busting interest added every year.

          The 7.5% compounded interest is disgusting, I also don’t believe that was explained properly and that with interest rates being held down for 13 years the massive increase for English grads was unexpected. Thats why I see plan 2 loans as a 9% grad tax for 30 years, I believe thats why Osborne stuffed English kids with his new plan I can’t believe the Tories rewarded their electorate with hit, and probably why our kids won’t vote for them. You’ve got to be earning over £100k to cut the capital because the interest started from day 1 of the loan whilst studying. Hopefully the interest rate on student loans will drop now inflation has dropped. It should have been a fixed interest for the 30 years you can get better mortgage deals but then again you don’t have a repayment free threshold.

          Have you ever worked out what the point of earnings would be to make it worth paying the loan of? They should make that possible from gross income to get the student loan debt down but they want to stuff the clever kids who are doing well.

          1. Lifelogic
            January 7, 2024

            To pay of a £100k debt at 7% interest over 10 years from net income after tax and ni deductions takes over £20K of extra salary PA for ten years.

            More still if you pay it back more slowly or less in the first few years.

          2. Lifelogic
            January 7, 2024

            Over thirty years, £100k of debt at 7% interest with tax at 40% and NI takes about £16k of your gross salary for 30 years to repay.

          3. hefner
            January 8, 2024

            a-tracy, you’re right and as so often LL is wrong. To start with, his 40% tax rate does not apply to the full income, first the personal allowance of £12,570 is taken off, then the next £37,700 are taxed at 20%, and only the rest above £50,270 is tax at 40%. Which obviously when everything is accounted for does not mean a 40% tax rate.
            So assuming a junior doctor’s average salary of £55,329 (CT3, ST3-5) their income tax would be £9,563.60 ( = 0.2 * 37,700 + 0.4 * 5,059), given a final income tax rate of 9,563.60 / 55,329 = 0.173 that is 17.3%.
            Does LL know those things (or even worse does he know how to handle these basic calculations)? One can wonder giving the amount of BS he regularly produces on this blog.

    3. Ed M
      January 7, 2024

      Instead we have had PMs such as Boris Johnson. Boris proposing things like Bridge to Ireland or something (sure, if the country is flowing with excess money that type of thing is fine – but we’re not – we’re seriously in debt).

      The MP who has come to the best idea I’ve come across so far is Gove with his proposition to helping to build up Cambridge as the world’s second Silicon Valley. That’s exactly how someone such as Michael O’Leary would be thinking if he were PM. How to build up our High Tech Economy instead of just relying on our Financial Sector (great as that is) and other sectors. High Tech is HUGE. It provides GREAT jobs – high skills, high wages, brands that workers can get excited about, varied skills (from creation of tech brands to marketing these brands), high exports and this industry feeding into and building up other industries (including the Finance Sector!).

      Problem is that our economy is still too focused on the policies of a bunch of Old Etonians and others, after WW2, figuring out how to rebuild the economy and to preserver their capital (and I am not critical of them, support them to a degree, and they didn’t do a bad job) but we have to move on from this fixed economic vision and become more entrepreneurial by helping to build up the High Tech sector more (like the Germans supporting their great car brands). And we would also have less eggs in the basket (look at what happened when the banks crashed and had to be bailed out – that’s partly because we were depending too much on our Financial Sector).

      1. James Freeman
        January 7, 2024

        While I agree with you about a high-tech industrial strategy, I do not think you’re right about the bridge to Ireland. Boris only promised a feasibility study, which was delivered. The result was it needed to be more viable, and he stopped the idea.

        The strategic development of the national transport network is a nationalised state function. I prefer to hand it back to the private sector, but we are where we are. To do this properly, a wide variety of ideas need researching, even if most result in no-go decisions—however, the increased knowledge results in better ideas and ultimately better ideas for the network.

        1. Ed M
          January 7, 2024

          Hi,

          ‘Boris only promised a feasibility study, which was delivered’ – but it only takes a few seconds to figure out that it would cost a few billion … and that that money would be much better spent helping to develop Cambridge as the world’s second valley by investing money in transport etc (like fast train from London to Cambridge or something – do a ‘feasibility study’ on that if you don’t agree with me: that would be fair enough) and better connection between Cambridge and Oxford etc).

      2. Lifelogic
        January 7, 2024

        Takes them 10 years plus for a bridge over a railway!

      3. A-tracy
        January 7, 2024

        Wasn’t the bridge to Ireland just a continuation of the European rail network plans to connect all of Europe with high speed lines.

        1. Lifelogic
          January 7, 2024

          He likes bridges – wanted to and did piss money down the drain on the never started London Garden Bridge too. At least that was cheaper!

          1. Ed M
            January 7, 2024

            Hi. The website alone for the London Garden Bridge project cost: £161,000! (What a joke ..).
            I would have gladly done it with my own money, and created the website myself, for the government, spending £100 on a Wix website that looks really professional – and not forgetting that this project was ditched.

            If the project had gone ahead, there’ no way you’d need to spend over £10K.

            (I once got various quotes from website companies to create a little software widget for my website. One company quoted £15K. Some quoted £5K. Most quoted around £2 K to £1K. I ended up finding – from an internet search – a student from Sheffield University who did it for £200! And he did a brilliant job – was a charming guy and very quick and professional. £15K versus £200 …).

          2. Ed M
            January 7, 2024

            So from my experience it’s terrifying how a Tory like Boris (let-a-lone a Labour politician) can p-ss money up the wall like that (London Garden Bridge project). This is why I like listening to lifelogic. He talks a lot of sense (even though I don’t agree with him about everything).

          3. a-tracy
            January 8, 2024

            Yes, EdM well done using a student, but eventually, that student will need to earn a proper income, pay his taxes, buy a house and will need to charge the proper rates to earn a living from the skill he has chosen to study.

          4. Ed M
            January 9, 2024

            ‘Yes, EdM well done using a student, but eventually, that student will need to earn a proper income, pay his taxes, buy a house and will need to charge the proper rates to earn a living from the skill he has chosen to study’ – I hired him ’cause it was a new project – investment money as opposed to surplus earnings. That’s perfectly reasonable (keeping the costs down to a minimum when setting up a business and then being generous with the winnings). Also, I approached the guy in the free market. He was free to see ‘no’ (plus I treated him well / let him do it in how own time / didn’t badger him – and it was an interesting project).

          5. Ed M
            January 9, 2024

            ‘Yes, EdM well done using a student, but eventually, that student will need to earn a proper income, pay his taxes, buy a house and will need to charge the proper rates to earn a living from the skill he has chosen to study’ – also the guy was clever. It probably took him about x 5 or x 10 quicker to figure out how to solve the problem. My point here is that government has to work harder to find good value for money as I do when setting up a new business. And that the rates between a fair price and not can be frighteningly large.

  9. Hat man
    January 7, 2024

    The British economy contracted sharply in 2020 thanks to the impact of lockdowns, here and abroad. That meant there were fewer transactions being paid for. Yet at the same time the financial authorities massively increased the supply of money – an obvious recipe for inflation. Much of this went into the furlough scheme, which continued for most of 2021. Then there was £37bn spent on NHS Test-and Trace, which did not end till early 2022. Add on a further £14bn on PPE still being paid for in financial year 2021/22.

    The government was creating money long after the 2020 Covid emergency was over – according to official figures, a total of over £5,000 for each adult in the country. Money well spent? I don’t think so. The whole thing was a boondoggle.

  10. Iain Moore
    January 7, 2024

    “Politicians have given powers away to these so called independent bodies,”

    And keep doing so . We, the electorate, struggled to restore our democracy against the wishes of the political establishment with Brexit, yet our political class rush to give it away again, with May tying our hands with the Migration compact, now with Sunak and co trying to empower the WHO. I struggle to figure out what the solution is. Make it an act of Treason to give away our Sovereignty? Make all these agreements fall at the end of a Government , so it is a clean sheet for the incoming Government , and Parliament has to vote these things back on the books? Perhaps everytime MP’s vote to reduce their responsibilities, it comes with a cut in pay?

    1. Original Richard
      January 7, 2024

      IM :

      Agreed

  11. agricola
    January 7, 2024

    If economics is a valid mathmatical type subject, its practisioners at the highest level, BOE & OBR, have trashed it. Ironically at other end of the scale the great british housewife seems generally capable of making the right decisions within the family budget.

    Government are complicit in the trashing. They quite deliberately overspend in their controlling tendencies and vanity projects. Much of what they spend is to compensate the population for their bad decision making in the first place. An energy business plan resultant in UK users paying an extortionate premium for their own gas and oil, that forces government to subsidise those they deem to be at the lower end of the financial scale. High level inside information tells me that it is down to an agreement between HMG and a fearful EU who did not want cheap energy advantaging the UK economy. I have touched on this in the past but our host has failed to pick up on it with a full explanation. Why does it persist now we are out of the EU.
    Current growing cancerous vanity project being HS2, except for political purposes uncosted and lacking value analysis in its operation. Its only hope is that AI replaces the RMT and ASLEF. No worries the taxpayer will pay even if he cannot afford to travel on it.
    My solution is that HMG should contract markedly from their involvement in our lives. What they do should be covered by tax alone. No more PPI or Bond magicing of money, whose end result is inflation, recession and perpetual high levels of taxation. Getting rid of the definable swamp is the first step to cure. I would aim at creating an off EU shore Singapore and enjoy the Brussels squealing, but not possible while the swamp exists.

  12. Paul
    January 7, 2024

    Central banks exist for the real owners of the world to control politicians and to fund awful policies with money printing. Without that money printing wars would be much more difficult, social security would have to be run on a sustainable basis not a ponzi scheme and governments would be much smaller and less intrusive. If you want to do away with boom/ bust cycles get rid of central banks. Mind you your bosses would be very cross.

  13. Ed M
    January 7, 2024

    A strong leader defies the Establishment. He has a vision and works hard to implement that.

    So the ultimate problem in Parliament is lack of leadership (same can be said for other countries too). It’s like those in Ryanair before O’Leary’s arrival saying, ‘how can we get the best quality leader for our company?’ If they had been apathetic about this, then they would have attracted someone mediocre to their company and Rynair might still just be limited to flights within Ireland and maybe a few to the UK type thing.

    It’s all about the leader (and to a degree, strong people working under him). So we have to at least try to figure out how to attract higher quality MPs to Tory Party – MPs with good, strong, entrepreneurial, leadership business experience and skills.

    1. Timaction
      January 7, 2024

      Bit late now as the One Nation Section of Liberals inside the Tory Party outnumber the conservatives! Thank Cameron and all leaders since for doing nothing about it.
      Then blame 13.5 years of Tory Party rule for EVERYTHING ELSE.
      Highest taxes ever, highest immigration both legal and illegal ever, highest national debt and rising, highest percentage of acceptance of illegals in Europe (think amnesty to encourage more), highest number of people on welfare, 5.6 million with no time limit, net zero drive to remove our industry abroad whilst importing dirtier products back, banning our cars and boilers, think lack of energy policy (interconnectors not the answer), think woke everywhere and anti English tax paying men policies on recruitment, think sex education laws to teach our children everything LGBTXYZ is good/normal! Think Windsor Agreement and fishing rights to foreign vessel’s for nothing in return, think £35 billion to EU for NOTHING. It’s ok Hunt has reduced National Insurance but frozen income tax thresholds to pay for his welfare state! Importing low wage workers and their families expecting English men to pay for them whilst discriminating against them EVERYWHERE. Just go Tory’s. We need a Conservative Government and REFORM!

      1. A-tracy
        January 7, 2024

        ‘Highest taxes ever’ for which pay bracket?

        The lower paid have the highest tax + NI personal allowance as a proportion of their pay ever. Tax and NI combined of 30% when was that last lower than that on all income over £12,570.

        VAT isn’t charged on their biggest spending, rent, most healthy food and drink, they should have taken vat off their energy as promised, children’s clothes.

        On the other side of the equation Universal credit kicks in, the old working tax credits, child tax credits for lower earners.

        I wonder what point of earnings for a family this switch to highest taxes ever begins.

    2. agricola
      January 8, 2024

      ED M,
      Why encumber strong leadership with a cadaver like the Tory or for that matter Labour party. The first action would be to sidline them in the naughty corner, much as has been done to our host and perhaps fifty or so other true Conservatives. The Tory parrot is dead, they just have to realise it.

  14. Keith from Leeds
    January 7, 2024

    Good article and I agree with it. But you forgot the solution, sack the people who keep getting it wrong. Personally I would have sacked Andrew Bailey some time ago and simply closed the OBR, another useless money pit.
    Sadly this Government not only tolerates mediocrity, it encourages it!

    1. Ian B
      January 7, 2024

      @Keith from Leeds – any right minded Government would have sacked him for his failures at the FCA. Then look, this Conservative Government has form, the disgraced David Cameron awarded with a top job that Parliament is not allowed to question about – he has by Rishi been made beyond Democratic Scrutiny. Then we get the PO CEO being made a CBE, also getting a massive bonus(paid by the taxpayer), now works for the NHS and advises the Cabinet Office?
      Any proof of jobs-for-the-boys, corruption and reinforcing the notion of Lies emanating from the Conservative Government is ‘writ’ large daily

    2. Original Richard
      January 7, 2024

      Keith from Leeds :

      Andrew Bailey has not been sacked because the Government agrees with his policies and actions and the OBR has not been closed because it produces the data, charts and predictions the Government wants to see.

      Don’t be confused by what the Government says, look at what it does.

  15. Dave Andrews
    January 7, 2024

    I don’t blame the labour party for the 2008 crash, caused by contagion from the US sub-prime mortgage failures and the policy of banks to expose themselves to it.
    I do blame the labour party for loading the country with poor PFI contract liabilities, and using good economic times as leverage to borrow yet more.

    1. graham1946
      January 7, 2024

      Yes Labour did do that, but it was Johnny Major who brought it in. On the other hand, my local hospital was refurbished on it and it is very good. Had it not been introduced we would still be in run down Victorian buildings and we still have some in our county. Not just the Tories, but NO politician can be trusted with the NHS and it needs separating from the crazies in the HoC who use it to experiment with and as a political plaything. Get polticians out of it, put in proper commercial management and we might, just might, get somewhere, although it would take many years after the Horlicks this lot have made of it with the Lansley reorganisation of 2012.

    2. Lifelogic
      January 7, 2024

      I do blame Labour and Brown piss poor and kisdirected bank regulation and a dire rescue plan.

  16. Ed M
    January 7, 2024

    (I’m not judging Donald Trump personally but as a political leader – and why we should not support him. Biden also is nightmare, I agree. But our focus shouldn’t be to support either of these candidates but to figure out how we improve our own culture and elect our leaders out of this).

  17. Bloke
    January 7, 2024

    An expert would have strong knowledge and skill. The bozos making so many errors are not experts but reckless idiots causing damage at public expense.

    1. Ian B
      January 7, 2024

      @Bloke – an expert? Ex as in has been, spurt(spert) as in a drip under pressure, seems to sum them up.

  18. Original Richard
    January 7, 2024

    Politicians have given powers away to these so called independent bodies……..Why take more of the same medicine when it has proved to be harmful so far?”

    The Establishment are the fifth column communists and the reason our Parliament has given away these powers is because a majority of current MPs agree with the policies of these so called independent bodies but dare not admit it to the voters and find it very convenient to hide behind these bodies.

    Hence the wish to sign binding and detrimental international treaties with the UN, EU and ECHR etc. so that these bodies determine our future policies.

    Hence also the unelected CCC has been set up to determine our energy policies, the unelected officials at the Treasury and OBR to determine our fiscal policies and the unelected officials at the “not for purpose” Home Office to control our immigration policies.

    Whilst our elected politicians keep telling us “Not me Gov, but can I have your vote?”

  19. Ian B
    January 7, 2024

    “Politicians have given powers away” If that was 100% true, why are our Politicians giving these entities money, they should be 100% self-financing. Even then with independence should come competition, there should be responsibility and accountability. We have a, taxpayer funded Quango the Monopolies Commission.
    Add it all up and you see our Politicians are the ones trying to evade their responsibility to their electorate. It is our Politicians that are trying to evade their own personal accountability. Yet it is our Politicians that we have empowered and actually pay to do precisely that. The message our Politicians send out is it is they that are the waste of money and space.
    Nothing that happens in a free Democratic Country should be 100% beyond political accountability. Nothing that relies on the Taxpayer for its existence, its bailouts or even subsidies should be beyond Political Control. No one entity permitted to make Laws, Rules and Regulations that affect ones right to go about their daily business exclusively should be beyond Political Control
    In these instances, I refer to Political Control as being our Democratically elected Parliament, our representatives to ensure a level working framework.

  20. Ian B
    January 7, 2024

    I am now of a mind that what is referred to as AI could replace all these stray bodies. AI is not about new ideas and though but just sifting through what’s been done before and acting on that – what’s the difference?

  21. Bert+Young
    January 7, 2024

    The points made by Sir John about the management of the economy are right . Why is it that he has not had more influence in the state of affairs that have existed under Conservative direction ?. The reason is ego . We have the wrong people at the top . The persona of the Sunak / Hunt team and the capability of the whole of the present Cabinet are a lost cause . The Labour Party also do not offer a credible experienced alternative , so , what is likely to happen ?.

  22. Ian B
    January 7, 2024

    Knowing how this Conservative Government has destroyed lives by its refusal to manage nothing seems out of line with the daily corruption it nurtures.
    My former Local Councilor, a Conservative Councilor ran our local Post Office and Shop for more years than I can remember. A lovely Lady a real Conservative, I always enjoyed talking politics with her. She is still around, now just walking her dog. She was hounded by the corrupt PO for debts that were nothing to do with her, they didn’t exist, she was hounded out of her home that was the Post Office for reasons the PO wouldn’t explain.
    Now what do we see this Conservative Government awarding the person that caused this misery, a big bonus, a CBE, a job in the NHS and is/was an advisor to the Cabinet Office. This was just but 1 misery out of 700 one corruption overseen by this Conservative Government out of how many?
    This Conservative Government awards failure, encourages corruption, destroys democracy and the UK. The logic is that all these Conservative Government arranges positions, posts, quangos etc to be a hot bed of corruption for them to massage.
    There is now no way back – they have to GO

    1. forthurst
      January 7, 2024

      The ex-CEO of the Post Office is typical example of the genus generalist. These people often go to a prestigious university but study nothing useful. This qualifies them to run organisations in fields in which they have no expertise or experience whilst flitting throughout their career from one top job to another. Needless to say, the consequences of their activities are usually highly negative for all those whose lives they affect. However, since politics and the civil service is full of these people, the system is unlikely to change.

  23. Ukretired123
    January 7, 2024

    “Politicians have given powers away to these so called independent bodies”….
    This trendy habit of governments delegation to “experts” has really meant offloading your responsibilities by stealth. It has allowed average career politicians to become wealthy Teflon coated passengers looking and talking big on TV gaining media coverage and publicity whilst legally untouchable when It goes awry. They need to take back ownership, control and responsibility.
    It goes back to joining the so-called Common Market in the 1970s and got out of hand.
    There are too few sadly who have a conscience like Sir John.

  24. William
    January 7, 2024

    This is certainly not the first time that you have expressed your deep concerns about the B o E and it’s approach to monetary issues, but what has the Government done in response to these justifiable concerns; nothing. So why then should the Electorate put their faith into a Party who ignore sound economic advice and continue to allow the B o E to lead us into such difficulties?

  25. Mickey Taking
    January 7, 2024

    …and another thing:
    These virtuous NHS nurses might be going to another Trust on strike days-
    Junior doctors were last year encouraged by the British Medical Association (BMA) to make back the salary they would lose from striking with locum shifts around the industrial action dates.
    A Department of Health and Social Care spokesman said: ‘There are rules about what locum work can and cannot be carried out during industrial action and they must be adhered to.
    ‘Hospitals are under huge pressure from these strikes during one of the busiest times of the year for the NHS, and if there is rule-breaking on locum work during the strikes that is clearly wrong.’
    The spokesman added: ‘It’s time the BMA junior doctors committee calls off the strike and comes back to the negotiating table.’
    ….the BMA worse than railway unions.

  26. Lindsay+McDougall
    January 7, 2024

    Interesting history, with implications for the present:
    – Sack Andrew Bailey and reduce Base Rate to 4% PDQ
    – Scrap the OBR
    – Return responsibilities to the Treasury
    – Ban the BoE from selling bonds at a loss
    – Get independent forecasts from Universities and Consultants
    – Withdraw from the IMF

    1. glen cullen
      January 7, 2024

      Gets my vote …apart from the universties & consultants, if the treasury can’t do a forecast, sack them and employ people that can

  27. Ian B
    January 7, 2024

    “Rishi Sunak interview: Every vote for Farage is a vote for Starmer”
    Every vote for me is a vote for more of the same, promises and failure.
    So, it confirmed once more its not about a Conservative MP, a good local MP representing their voters, it’s about confirming support for the failed many times over Sunak/Hunt WEF Socialist Government.
    Could a Starmer labour Government controlled by the Unions ‘actually’ be worse? WEF or WEF you choose. One with a proven track record of failure and one that would be a fudge.
    Or maybe Farge would be a breath of fresh air.
    It is still a plague on all their house, I guess we all want democracy, politicians in Parliament that take charge and manage on behalf. Not the stooges we have now that say its someone else, that say others have the powers, you the Taxpayer just pay for our mistakes.
    How low can this PM take the Country both morally and economically?

    1. Donna
      January 9, 2024

      FPTP voting makes the majority vote AGAINST the Party/Leader they fear the most.

      I find it a bit ironic that Sunak is now trying to claim that voting for “Farage” (ie Reform) isn’t a vote AGAINST the Not-a-Conservative-Party/Sunak.

      It won’t make a scrap of difference if it’s WEF-Sunak or WEF-Starmer in No.10. I’ll be voting AGAINST both of them.

  28. Ralph Corderoy
    January 7, 2024

    The Conservatives could open a gap with Labour before the General Election if they were to take back powers from the Bank of England and scrap the ONS’s control. This would alert the listening public to the issues, apportion some blame, and make Labour state a position. But the international bodies wouldn’t like it and would probably bring down another Prime Minister.

    The Government of the day is walking into a debt spiral. The BoE and HM Treasury’s solution seem to be to print more as they have in the past. Bail outs, ahoy! A central-bank digital currency which allows significant negative interest rates to force spending is too small an effect. Ditto a shift to policies for a higher GDP and higher tax receipts.

    The world’s fiat-currency experiment has been running too long. As debt-to-GDP grew so interest rates shrunk to support it. Money as a store of value has become things other than fiat currency: art, S&P500, property, … The rich just use fiat money now as leverage to borrow and buy assets which will appreciate as the debt is eroded. The poor are stuck with the pound in their pocket. The experiment will end as all previous fiat monies have ended.

  29. agricola
    January 7, 2024

    I am in the process of watching ” Mr Bates versus the Post Office”. I am only into episode one and find it so gut wrenching and now known to be accurate that the perpetrators of this evil must not go uninvestigated or unpunished where guilt is proven. Such investigation must include the creators of “Horrizon”, the post office management that oversaw its introduction and management in daily use, and most of all the most senior management at the head of the post office.
    All sub postmasters and their families who have been affected by this grotesque assault on their integrity must be at least minimum double compensated for this calumny inflicted upon the innocent. Those who created “Horrizon” who call themselves “Fujitsu” and those within the post office reponsible for it must be criminally investigated and where considered responsible must be prosecuted. I want to see the whole of Parliament including the PM getting behind the correction in full of this evil.

    1. IanB
      January 7, 2024

      @agricola – those that created the flawed software didn’t bring in the criminalisation of innocence victims. Those who’s duty was to ensure there was proof included the PO CEO, the Post Office Minister and the Prosecution Service, they where individually and collectively responsible and accountable for thier own actions. Anyone of them could have asked the question but chose not to. They were not fit for purpose. Now ask the same question about the BoE, OBR and all the other self styled Quangos each everyone one relies on this Conservative Government to steal money from the Taxpayer to keep their thiefdoms going. In a nutshell this Conservative Government was/is empowered and paid by us to manage where the money they collect from us goes and what we get in return. 14 years of ruined lives and destruction of the Country stops with the pretend Conservative Government, they are not Conservatives, they have to be held to account

      1. agricola
        January 8, 2024

        Ian B
        They did by creating the flawed weapon, and defending its correctness with which innocent sub postmasters were beaten. The rest was said if you care to read it.

  30. Mickey Taking
    January 7, 2024

    I read that a forecast for the H of C becoming the most diverse ever in the next GE has surprised me.
    I will be pleased if the existing 95% sheep & chickens, replaces some with stroppy goats, difficult bulls, cunning foxes and other smart animals.
    I won’t hold my breath.

  31. Derek
    January 7, 2024

    There was once a popular Conservative Party that actually represented the aspirations of the British people. Oh those were the days – the good old days.
    Since we lost Mrs Thatcher to the self-serving Europhiles within her Cabinet, our country has slipped down the slimy slope of socialism. And that’s another fine mess they’ve gotten us plebs into.
    Whoever you vote for, Lib, Lab, or Con you’ll now just get a different strain of rotten socialism, where the State takes over our lives a la EU and emulating the beginnings of the USSR. A place where high taxes and big Government rules us and elections become a farce. Is that what we would wish our offspring?

  32. paul cuthbertson
    January 7, 2024

    ALL part of the Globalist UK NWO Establishment plan. The Slow creep of CONTROL.

  33. XY
    January 7, 2024

    Reported that Liz Truss is starting a new Conservative group, the “Popular Conservatism” group.

    She seems to think that helping Sunak develop a manifesto of the policies people want is going to change anything. Who would believe it? They had all tehse years to sort it out and now they would exepct us to believe that another 5 years would be any different?

    They already ripped up their last manifesto, so don’t expect anyone to believe the next one – not worth the pixels it’s displayed on.

    Not only does the Conservative HoC rabble need yet another group like another hole in their collective head (their “broad church” is more than broad enough) but Truss as a leader of a group is a non-starter. Her bolt has been shot with her time as PM so why would anyone see her as a force that can make a difference.

    Note: I think she was badly served by her traitorous MPs (and her policies were right) but that’s not how it will be perceived.

    Can the Tories not see that they need to actually implement their supposedly-current manifesto under a new leader to stand any chance. Get the flights off to Rwanda, leave the ECHR, repeal EU regs, repeal woke legislation – then get someone worthwhile (Frost at the next by-election?) as leader… then just maybe.

    1. Mickey Taking
      January 8, 2024

      The Tories have been stuck in a maelstrom but moving nearer and nearer the plunge over the high waterfall.
      Nothing can stop it.

  34. hefner
    January 8, 2024

    ‘Senior Tories ‘trying to escape reality’ over attacks on OBR forecasts’, FT.com, 07/01/2023.
    The relaunched ‘Conservative Way Forward’ (don’t burst laughing please) criticizes OBR forecasts that, compared to similar forecasts run by various City and non-City forecasters, are very much middle-of-the-road.
    So the question is: why are the Patels, (Duncan) Smiths, Rees-Moggs and others so keen on killing another independent economic forecaster. Were they p1$$ed off by the mess that their beloved Truss-Kwarteng made in October 2022? Aren’t all those ‘free-marketers’ who now cannot stand when the markets did not go their way?

    1. Sam
      January 8, 2024

      You fail to accept the the OBR got numerous forecasts wrong hefner.

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