The forces of Ukraine face a larger enemy and need plenty of help from NATO with weapons, ammunition and financial support.
So far the leading money Ā donors, the EU and US, and the leading provider of military items, the USA have given enough to Ukraine to be able to largely halt and in some places reverse Russian advances, but not enough to give them victory. There are strict controls and rules over use, stopping Ukraine using NATO weapons outside Ukraine. A lot of the weapons given have been older ones from stocks.
I have no wish to see a NATO/Russia war. NATO has a large superiority to win a conventional war against Russia but victory could impose a high price in losses before achieved. NATO rightly claims to be a defensive alliance so it should continue to avoid provoking Ā war with Russia. Russia Ā has not invaded a NATO country which is the trigger wire. War would of course follow were Russia to attack a NATO member.
NATO led by the dominant US power needs to be clearer about its plans for Ukraine. It is not good for Ukraine to be able to largely hold the line but be unable to win. Clearly if the EU and US do will a Ukrainian Ā victory as they say they do they need to expand weapons supplies greatly to show Russia the West can win any battle of ammunition and weapons production. Putin has turned to a new Defence Minister said to be good at cranking up Russian war production. This is no time for the EU and USA to be reducing their commitments if they both want a Ukraine win. The Ukraine war has shown NATO weapons stocks were low and has led to more investment in weapons manufacture and more orders for the armourers.
At some point there will need to be negotiations and a ceasefire. It is strange how Ā current debates and US policy are dominated Ā by the Ā imperative of a ceasefire in Gaza to end civilian deaths whilst preoccupied with continuing and intensifying the war in Ukraine where civilians and reluctant conscripts are also being killed.
.
May 19, 2024
We should not be supporting conflict in either Ukraine or Gaza.
May 19, 2024
Peter,
I find it difficult to accept your conclusion as Ukraine is the first domino in a threat to Western Europe, and Gaza is a direct threat to the only democracy, Israel, in the Middle East. There is a history of fault on the part of Ukraine and Israel, but remember it was their enemies that kicked it off in the first instance.
May 19, 2024
@ agricola “Ukraine is the first domino “ – a very doubtful notion. Recall Robert MacNamara disavowed the original domino theory, albeit thirty years late when confessing “We were wrong, terribly wrong” about Vietnam.
May 19, 2024
It is almost laughable that KR writes this blogs when his party has secured the UK to third world status, no longer able to make quality steel, paying farmers not to grow food and become reliant on hostile EU for energy! Yet JR thinks Russia will take UK seriously when the UK is reliant on US for weaponry, technology and our place in the world!
The UK becoming the welfare immigration capital of the world!
Heaton- Harris standing down, horay!
Reply The blog is about NATO and the EU, not about the UK
May 19, 2024
Reply to reply,
JR,
We cannot fight a war with any country, individually or part of a group, if we are broke and unable to manufacture our own weapons rather than being reliant on other countries or dictated by others what we might or might not want to do. Undoubtedly the EU would want control of our foreign policy by the EU defence pact, PESCO etc. The two are synonymous are they not? I seem to recall you argued this point before?
I submit discussing NATO is discussing the UK if we are members. I accept your point about Heaton-Harris, to a degree, but he was part of the Windsor EU sell out to make our country a vassal state of the EU.
May 19, 2024
I disagree. Western Europe used to end in the middle of Berlin. If anyone now feels a threat it is Russia.
Israel ‘the only democracy in the Middle East’ is a very tired excuse nowadays. People can see what has been going on for a very long time.
May 19, 2024
What has been ‘going on’ Peter?
May 19, 2024
Clearly not true or NATO would already be in there.
May 19, 2024
If Russia is victorious un Ukraine it will continue its march Westwood
Now the civilian infrastructure has been hollowed out, Putin needs a war to sustain the economy. We are in very dangerous times. Now is not the time to blink.
May 19, 2024
There is no proof of that, it is just the opinion of those who support the Ukraine proxy war.
NATO, we’re told, is a defensive organisation and members are obliged to go to the defence of any fellow member who is attacked. By interfering in Ukraine, which is not a NATO member, we are simply proving Putin’s point for him ….. that NATO is a threat to Russia.
May 19, 2024
Oh you will not blink. You eyes will be closed forever. Britain is launching the Storm Shadows – if we target Russia, they will retaliate – Putin has said so. We canāt stop their hypersonics. Do you know that? The west is āhoping to have hypersonics by 2030!
Reply The US and UK have hypersonic technology, used in the Trident nuclear missiles. The missile defensive shields can also detect and respond to incoming fast missiles.
May 19, 2024
The Tory govt./UK failed to stand up to the EU over N.Ireland and our fishing waters! Does anyone think Russia would fear run away call me Dave! What did the Tory Govt. do when Russia poisoned citizens on our soil? Nothing.
Obama let Syria cross their red lines by use of chemical weapons, Trump made clear it was a red line, Russia threatened him, but he retorted they are fast, shiny and coming! He responded despite threats for crossing a red line.
May 20, 2024
Reply to reply – which missile defensive shield in the UK? We have no defense against these missiles, and we are only, belatedly trying to engage in modern hypersonic missile development!
zorro
May 20, 2024
The cast iron Cameron dome defense?
May 19, 2024
I know I may be boring you John but I hope you’re making your infantile colleagues aware that for the past 2 weeks there’s been hardly any wind and the useless windmills are generating at 5% or less of their rated output
Today 2.0gw and we’re Importing 30% of our electricity.
Last year we spent Ā£117 billion on power imports which is unsustainable
May 20, 2024
Russia’s ‘civilian infrastructure’ has not been hollowed out.Quite the opposite.You would know this if you bothered to do a few minutes research.
May 19, 2024
“Supporting conflict”? Well perhaps the best way not to support conflict is to be so powerful and determined so as to deter any attack. If under attack you have the choice of fighting back or surendering.
The world is rather depressing currently as is the prospect of Labour or 20-15 years. But I certainly cannot support the current unequivocal socialist liars of Sunak and Hunt.
A good interview by Joe Rogan of Dr Aseem Malhotra. Even the trial data suggests the Covid Vaccines did net harm and should never have been used. Follow the big Pharma funding to see why it was coerced into millions. Hunt in the Sunday times says the Blood Contamination Scandal is the largest in his lifetime. Sure mate the Covid Vaccine are about 40 times worse. Yet Sunak still claims they are unequivocally safe. So is he a blatant liar or a damn fool. Must surely be the former.
May 19, 2024
Rod Liddle today āNearly half our universities are going to the wall thatās good but two thirds would be better.ā If you are not in the top 15% or so in school exams you should probably train as an apprentice or get a job or resit you A levels. Certainly you should not get student loans for university degrees in Grievance Studies or similar.
The Sunday Times Rich List asks where have all the billionaires have gone? Well why would they stay after 14 years or Tory Socialism and 10-15 years more of even worse to come. If you are about to be hugely mugged by Labour why hang around? No shortage of options usually rather warmer too.
May 19, 2024
I now have yet another jabbed friend diagnosed with an aggressive and advanced cancer. Surgery and chemotherapy planned. She doesn’t know yet if it will be terminal.
May 19, 2024
Would be interesting to know the stats but government seem reluctant to release them. How many new cancer cases, blood clots or cardio vascular problem – broken down by age and Covid vaccine status and type of vaccines. Then we could see how much higher (or not) the cases are in the vaccinated. They have the figures but the government choose not to release them (surely rather damning evidence).
There is not doubt at all that heart problems are very significantly up post the Covid vaccines.
May 19, 2024
I don’t think we know anybody who has not been jabbed.
So do we scream ‘jabs did it’ for hearing loss, sight loss, weight loss, weight gain, joint aches, hips/knees wearing out’?
The latest jabs are better than the AZ one which saved millions but had a tiny downside (like all remedies) which were tragedies for those affected. Now the evolved virus needs a different basis for treatment.
May 19, 2024
There is no real solid evidence that Covid vaccines saved net lives. The virus just evolved to be less dangerous and treatments become better. Far more evidence that they did net harm in fact. Even in the trials the data is dubious.
May 20, 2024
There is no proof whatsoever that any of the jabs “saved millions.” These claims are all based on dodgy computer models created by people who are desperate to justify the tyranny.
Prof Angus Dalgleish (cancer expert) and many other cancer experts around the world have provided evidence that multiple jabs with these products are linked to a sudden increase in aggressive cancers.
May 19, 2024
Ā£10 billion promised by Hunt for the blood contamination scandal victims. So that will be over Ā£400 billion needed for the “unequivocally safe” Covid Vaccine victims in the UK. Circa Ā£1,500 per household. But even this is cheaper than the lunacy of net zero which will cost more like Ā£60,000 per household (& with zero benefit for all this expenditure).
May 19, 2024
Negotiations are far better than generating more weaponry to allow each side to destroy the other. The more Russia loses, the more it appears to be forming agreements with China for assistance, creating the prospect of worse.
May 19, 2024
Well yet but you can only negotiate if the opposition wish to do so. They are usually more willing to this if you have military strength and weaponry.
May 19, 2024
Negotiations with Putin are of no value when he is full of deceit. The only response he respects is force.
May 19, 2024
Alas this is the case and very often is the case with such dictators.
May 19, 2024
š¤Æ
May 19, 2024
You started oit on the wrong side of the Covid debate too. We canāt wait for you to catch up this time. or an has declared the end of the western world.
Get those blinkers off if you want to save the U.K.!
May 19, 2024
Orban – of Hungary.
May 20, 2024
Well he is a ‘dictator’ who has been elected in accordance with their law and is clearly the popular choice of Russians. We need to interact like grown ups. It must be nice to have a popular and elected PM.
zorro
May 20, 2024
This is ridiculous – where is he ‘full of deceit’? He has been very clear for years on what would happen if NATO encroached more aggressivley eastwards. He would argue that the West has been deceitful (Minsk 1/2 – Merkel/Holland) and when it says that it has no plans to dismember Russia or regime change it when it clearly does and always has had since mid 1800s (UK for sure). All this nonsense about not speaking to Putin is dangerous – you should always keep your lines off communication open. THis has been the greatest Western intelligence disaster since at least Suez if not before
May 19, 2024
As with Russia in Afgahnistan, Russia must be made to feel the cost of their invasion of Ukraine. Better Ukraine fights a largely defensive war against Russia in which the russians experience the cost in their loses and in the political damage throughout Russia. As with WW2 it will be technical prowess and overwhelming production capacity that will cause Russia to realise there is nothing to be gained.
Whether NATO wholely realises it or not, it is a war that threatens them. Go back to Hitler and recall his domino toppling until Poland, in which Russia conived, to understand the weakness and result of appeasement. Let Russia batter itself against superior defensive weaponry until the truth dawns on Putin or the russian people say enough is enough that results in a forced withdrawal or a negotiation.
May 19, 2024
The problem with that plan is, if reports are correct, Ukraine is also running out of people to fight. Either we have to send munitions that removes large numbers of combatants from risk, or we send our own.
The last big issue, who knows what a second President Trump will do. Nobody wants to be killed or injured in the last days of war before capitulation.
Difficult times.
May 19, 2024
Tbe first President Trump did not start any wars. His MO was jaw jaw as I recall.
May 19, 2024
Jaw jaw yes but from a position of strength.
May 19, 2024
If Ukraine runs out of men, it will need to send in women as well to the fight. Better that than the rape and pillage of a victorious Russian army.
Trump might be able to achieve something. His advantage is his unpredictability, unlike Biden whose administration the Russians can calculate.
May 19, 2024
Women are already fighting, and invalidates.
May 19, 2024
Who is buying Russian oil, gas and coal! Please be serious.
May 19, 2024
We are. USD 2.4 Billion in the last year. Luckily Putin still sells to us or the lights would have been out.
May 19, 2024
Very true
May 19, 2024
War is shocking and destructive of places and people. It is only our direct absence from it since 1945 that allows us to think it is anything less. As to the availability of men in Ukraine it rather depends on what destructive power you arm them with when judging their effectiveness. Its a case of spades against JCBs, should we choose to give them the latter, and I am in no position to know what might be available short of nuclear.
May 19, 2024
According to the US channel that counts AFU obituaries, as of today, the number reached 463400.
The are many (tens of thousands at least) not identified and listed as āmissingā.
May 20, 2024
Is that the only bit of history you know – 1938? Every event for the next 4000 years cross references to 1938… Nonsense. Domino toppling eh? There is not a shred of evidence or intelligence that this is Russia’s intention. It is a psychological issue with the ruling class in the West.
Superior defensive weaponry LOL – you are dreaming Leopard 11 or Challenger 2. Thw underwaffen have been duds and the truth is coming home to roost
zorro
May 19, 2024
Sir John,
Both conflicts were always going to result in a right mess.
You may be correct that NATO could defeat Russia but, could NATO defeat a combined Russia China Iran and North Korea? That would be my fear.
The current war on Europe’s doorstep will indeed need a negotiated settlement to solve it but, is there the political will to do so? I am not sure there is because, I cannot see either presidents Putin nor Zeblensky agreeing to give up anything in a compromise.
We should be concentrating on defence of the UK and not acting as a worldwide policeman.
During the last major global conflict, we held those of German, Italian and Japanese origin in prison camps. In light of recent protests and demonstration, do you really think we could do the same with the make up of our current population, especially if by way of escalation. Iran started an all out attack on Israel?
May 19, 2024
Zelensky has legislated against Ukraine being able to negotiate.
Before there could be any discussions (what is the Swiss meeting for?) he has to reverse that law. And he has until 21st May because after that he is no longer the legitimate elected President of Ukraine.
May 19, 2024
Under the current constitution of Ukraine, Presidential elections are suspended during a war, a war which Ukraine instigated against the Russians in South Eastern Ukraine when the latter decided to leave Ukraine and become independent. The current borders of Ukraine were created by the Bolsheviks after their coup d’etat in 1917, supplemented by Crimea as a gift from Khruschev. The Russians who live in Ukraine are now supported by Russia and opposed by NATO which is a defensive alliance according to JR: tell that to the people of Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria. It is not; it is the basis for the USA trying to become and remain the World’s hegemon, something which the Tory government is spending vast amounts of our wealth promoting. Why?
May 20, 2024
poodle although my apolgies to poodles for the image
May 19, 2024
The Ukrainian compromise means many Ukrainians being put under Russian rule whether they like it or not. Perhaps they would rather remain Ukrainian where their vote counts, rather than Russian with rigged elections and the elimination of Putin political opponents.
May 19, 2024
So you donāt mind the cancelled presidential election, the banning of opposition parties and the jailing of opposition leaders in Ukraine? š¤
Surely you also refute the internationally scrutinised elections held in Russia and in Novorussiya?
Some democrat you are.
May 20, 2024
100%
May 19, 2024
“The forces of Ukraine face a larger enemy and need plenty of help from NATO with weapons, ammunition and financial support.”
Why? Ukraine is not in NATO. Members of NATO have no obligation to Ukraine whatsoever.
I do not support the UK transferring large sums of (borrowed) money or munitions to “the most corrupt country in Europe – Ukraine.”
Reply Why? US led NATO has decided to support Ukraine
May 19, 2024
NATO’s support for Ukraine is self interest. A case of who would be next. An initial elastoplast to prevent a gushing wound.
May 19, 2024
Reply to reply.
It is a proxy war to remove Putin. US supports EU to expand NATO. It has taken over former USSR countries when it was accepted it would not do so. Ukrainian was a buffer between east and west, this was established when USSR fell and nuclear weapons removed. Ukraine is of no strategic value to UK. Of course UK pays a price for being reliant on US weapons and technology, junior partner Cameron called it. Another massive price is the utter cowardice of Uni Party politicians not to stand up for UK national interest. Even Wilson stood up against helping Vietnam war! What did Blaire and Cameron doā¦. Vanity of war at no cost to them holding the skirt of the US- tossers..
May 19, 2024
Kaya Kellie has just broadcast another video calling for the balkanisation of Russia. Released today. One in a series.
May 19, 2024
Reply to reply.
The USA leads NATO and may have decided to wage a proxy war in Ukraine. But fellow NATO members (unless I am very much mistaken) are not obliged to participate in American overseas military adventures. They are required to participate when a fellow NATO member is attacked. Ukraine is not in NATO.
Reply True, but the EU members of NATO are keener on the Ukraine war than Biden
May 19, 2024
We’re not in the EU. And we are not obliged to support America’s proxy war. We should keep out of it …. as Wilson did with Vietnam.
May 19, 2024
We voted to leave the EU and do not want the organisation to control our foreign policy or troops! You and other leavers used to advocate that. Your govt cannot protect us from channel invaders!
May 19, 2024
@Donna. Good point. Also, though widely repeated that “when one NATO member is attacked, the others must respond” it doesn’t necessitate them being belligerent in the conflict. They can do what they like, up to and including getting into direct military involvement. But equally they could simply send some bandages and a “hope you have peace soon card” if they so wished. Obviously in reality the US might tell them to react differently…
May 20, 2024
Reply to reply – that’s a really underwhelming answer JR, But about the only one.
zorro
May 19, 2024
NATO was a defensive alliance but ceased to be so when the Cold War ended. It is now a military arm of an aggressive US imperial foreign policy. It should have been dissolved after the Cold War.
A NATO/Russia war would see the use of tactical nuclear weapons by Russia if it was losing, no doubt with tactical nuclear retaliation by NATO. Europe, the battleground, would become a smoking ruin.
The use of strategic nuclear weapons is unlikely. As de Gaulle correctly said no US President will risk New York for the sake of Lyons. Indeed Article 5 of the NATO Treaty does not oblige any member to do other than consider what action it should take if another member is attacked.
Britain should not be involved in the Ukraine fiasco, from which it gains no benefit whatsoever.
May 20, 2024
Where is Harold Wilson when we need him….
zorro
May 19, 2024
I thought we were one of the biggest donors of money and military items to Ukraine. Rishi Sunak seems to be as adept as Boris Johnson at finding billions down the back of the sofa to support Ukraine while the entire taxpayer-funded infrastructure of the UK collapses around our ears. I would be interested to know just how much the EU has provided to Ukraine in money and military items and, in particular, whether the UK – despite having apparentlly left the EU – if one of the donors of that largesse, too.
Reply USA/EU have paid more than ten tines as much as Uk. We are a large individual country donor leaving aside the much much larger Us contribution.
May 19, 2024
JR, you have not explained or justified why we are paying a penny of our taxes for corrupt Ukraine. None. Why should UK support the expansion of EU to the Urals? Why should EU take over former USSR countries? Tell us.
After the disasters of Iraq, Libya and Afghanistan there ought to be national referenda for all and any war conflict. Your Uni party is totally untrustworthy to make such decisions.
May 19, 2024
+1
May 20, 2024
Answer came there none.
zorro
May 19, 2024
I certainly wish for a cease fire in Ukraine. But what is Putin actually trying to gain? Does he want to absorb the whole of Ukraine. Is he looking for a buffer zone between Ukraine and Russia. I don’t know and I’m not sure anyone knows beyond Putin himself.
May 19, 2024
Why not listen to what Putin said he wanted, OA? Demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine. He seems to be on target with the first one, as Kiev’s army is gradually attrited away. The second one will follow with the collapse of the Kiev regime’s military as the Banderite russophobes currently in charge scuttle to take refuge abroad. I expect Russia will then agree to a neutral Ukraine without NATO links, and that will be that. Grieving relatives will be left to mourn the dead, and the country will have to come to terms with the appalling wrong direction it took in 2014, just as Germans had to come to terms with what went wrong for them 1933-1945. I expect NATO will just move on, not talk about Ukraine anymore, and look elsewhere, as it did after Afghanistan.
May 19, 2024
@Old Albian – Kyiv or Kiev was the Capital of Russia until its move to Moscow. That was prior to Soviet Russia. Putin appears to want to recreate Russia as it was in his interpretation of History.
Its a bit similar to People’s Republic of China (PRC) claiming from the Republic of China (ROC) – ‘Taiwan’. When they have never been there.
May 19, 2024
Or maybe the U.K. claiming Northern Ireland and Scotland because the Northern Irish and Scots (who used to live in Northern Ireland, have always voted to remain in the U.K.?
Scandalous!
Now imagine if the Republic of Ireland legislated for no English to be spoken in Northern Ireland, cut off the water supply completely and taught about how evenly the U.K. and British are ā¦.
May 20, 2024
Good idea to read his speeches/interviews which are freely available on the internet.
zorro
May 19, 2024
An impressive and accurate analysis from Sir John, that succinctly sums up the situation.
It is the British Government’s policy that we continue to support Ukraine with as much weaponry. armaments and money as we can afford. So far the UK has pledged Ā£12.5 billion in support to Ukraine since February 2022, of which Ā£7.6 billion is for military assistance, including Ā£3 billion for military assistance in 2024/25
(source; https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9477/ )
Putin is banking on two things. Firstly, he is praying that Trump wins the November presidential election and secondly, he believes that the EU and ourselves will tire of the expense of supporting Ukraine – and force Zelenskyi to accept a peace deal involving appeasement with captured Ukraine land in return for a cessation of hostilities.
NATO is a powerful defensive alliance that Russia could not hope to defeat. If we want to end this war quickly, the American administration should rapidly reinforce Western Europe with troops and the USAF. European members should mobilise their forces and move them into place in Germany, Poland and the Baltic states. Ukraine should then, formally, be invited to join NATO. Putin should be told to end the fighting, withdraw to the pre 2014 border – or face the consequences.
Brinkmanship has its place in geopolitics. Unfortunately, the elderly pacifist Biden and the Putin admirer Trump are not the politicians to lead such a strategy. And so, the killing will go on.
May 19, 2024
But NATO “is not at war with Russia” – Jens Stoltenberg, NATO secretary general. So why have we as a NATO country given Ā£7.5bn in weaponry to fight a war against Russia with? I think that money would have been better spent elsewhere. Many of our schools are literally crumbling, and we have have the highest homelessness rate in the developed world. Time to get our priorities right, and with a GE coming up, there will be no better time.
May 19, 2024
There are so many subjects we SHOULD spend the Ā£billions on. But what will the bill become when Putin starts on the Scandinavians?
May 19, 2024
MT: What would the Scandinavians have done to Russian speakers to make Putin even bother with those countries?
May 19, 2024
He will,not – unless they attack Russia – that includes Kaliningrad.
May 19, 2024
The total is way over USD 300 Billion from NATO.
May 19, 2024
Following the Covid Tyranny, we’re Ā£2.25 trillion in debt and taxes are the highest since the end of WW2.
We can’t afford to shovel Ā£12.5 billion of borrowed money at Ukraine …. or to replace the military equipment we have given “the most corrupt country in Europe.”
May 19, 2024
@Donna – especially that with the new political speak that UK defence spending, as in ensuring the UK has a capability to defend its self, has now come to mean what we give to Ukraine. This is at the expense of what we have available to spend at home. The Political spin is money to Ukraine is providing for a defence of the UK, so the magic % of GDP on defence is the sum including what is sent to the Ukraine. The Conservative Government robbing Peter to pay Paul. The UK’s defence is reduced even further, leaving us further exposed.
The PM has ‘promised’ if you vote for him this time around and then the next election after that, he will if circumstance allow let more money go towards defending the UK.
May 19, 2024
was that higher % or just more money…(natural inflation).? Typical weasel words from a politician.
May 19, 2024
@ Sakara Gold “Putin should be told to end the fighting, withdraw to the pre 2014 border ā or face the consequences” – those consequences would presumably very like include nuclear warfare on a large scale given Putin’s oft enunciated pledge to resort to same if Russia itself were attacked by the West? So for the sake of preserving an meretricious Ukrainian regime you would risk all out nuclear war? Did you overdose on orchid sniffing recently perhaps?
May 19, 2024
No good will come of UK involvement in this US proxy war with Russia.
When there was a chance of a ceasefire and negotiations our then PM stopped it in its tracks!
May 19, 2024
Two years of this war apparently haven’t been long enough for some people. More slaughter please seems to be the programme. They have to justify this somehow, so they imagine it is a replay of WW II with plucky little Ukraine standing up to the invaders, and ‘we’ must defend Ukraine because if we don’t the 21st century Hitler will roll over all of Europe. This concocted excuse for supporting war ignores the facts. Russia reached an agreement with Ukraine in March 2022, and withdrew from much of Ukrainian territory. NATO did not want a peace agreement, even though it left Ukraine intact, with autonomy granted to Russian-speaking areas, and still with a sizable military force. So Johnson went in to kill the deal. The result has been hundreds of thousands more deaths, and the likelihood that when Ukraine finally has to submit, it gets a much worse deal. Who has benefited?
May 20, 2024
Exactly
zorro
May 19, 2024
Specifically on your last paragraph. In a sympathetic arab world countries like Egypt would offer sanctuary to the people of Gaza even on a temporary basis, but ask yourself why not. As with the attitude, historically, of Jordan to Palastinians of the West Bank, they see them and their government in Gaza, Hamas as a direct threat. Radical militant islam backed by Iran is seen as a direct threat to all countries in the Middle East, hence no sanctuary.
After Israel’s appalling experience of 7th October 2023, the devastating destruction in Gaza is a consequence of their elimination of Hamas while minimising their own casualties. I suspect in time, study of their techniques will become De rigeur at West Point, Sandhurst and our senior war colleges.
Additionally do not delude yourself into thinking that our weekly pro palastinian marches and university encampments are the sole work of a few concerned students. They are not. They are the fifth column of militant islam working on behalf of Hamas to legitamise the 7th October pre genocidal attack on israelis and Israel. An alert UK government would deal with the threat.
May 19, 2024
@agricola – in today’s media it has been suggested that these marches and protest have been orchestrated by China & Russia.
The UK Conservative Government refuses to protect our freedoms, our democracy, asking it to be alert on external threats is like asking it to listen to the UK Citizen, hear them and work with them. They practice the opposite on all counts – fighting society is their brief
May 19, 2024
Agricola, ++++. Excellent analysis and comment, thank you
May 19, 2024
Agree
May 20, 2024
Really? – I get the impression that it is their desire to drive out all Palestinians from Gaza as suggested immediately post 7/10. The Israeli government is extreme and wants ‘from the River to the Sea’ to be Israel and nothing else. Netanyahu held up a map in the UN – REMEMBER? Their tactics are an outrage and totally unnecessary
May 19, 2024
I suggest you look at a YT channel called Candid with Lubna, where she is documenting the frauds on the benefits system committed by immigrants from her own country. Itās a must watch for anybody interested in politics.
May 19, 2024
Talk of winning wars in this day and age is scary stuff, as it inevitably translates into terrible destruction.
Countries like Ukraine and Russia, with so much shared history, should not be at war – there needs to be an understanding of the geopolitical psyche in the historical context, to understand how to treat a major player like Russia, which involves mutual understanding – this is not appeasement. Trump is the type of politician who seems to understand this, and is perhaps why he is so hated by the ‘professionals’.
The situation is Israel is of another dimension altogether, because of the unfathomable nature of antisemitism, and its deep revelatory significance. Little is known about those Arabs who love the Jews, and why. Only when the world understands this will a lasting peace be possible. The Bible prophets assure us it will indeed happen, and through whom it will do so – quite soon, too, so there is hope.
May 19, 2024
The preoccupation with civilian deaths in Gaza is not the only distortion. The Islamist threat to the West, allied with the Woke Left, is a far more damaging, insistent and determined threat to the West than Putin.
Europe should be capable of defending itself against Russia but neither Europe nor the UK seem capable of defending themselves against Islamism. That is where the political effort is most needed and faces the greatest difficulty, because the enemy is already inside the gates and advancing. It is not about territory but civilisation. That is what Westminster needs to wake up to.
Russia is easier to deal with: politicians only have to send for the Chief of the Defence Staff and say, ‘Go’. But the Russian threat provides a useful distraction from their failure to deal with the clear and present danger of Islamism.
May 19, 2024
+1 correct.
Instead of shovelling money at Ukraine to fund additional slaughter, I’d prefer the Not-a-Conservative-Party took some effective action to stop the regular demonstrations by HAMAS terrorist-supporters in central London. THAT wouldn’t cost us Ā£12.5 billion either.
May 20, 2024
How about properly policing the UK border? Oh no, that’s far too hard….
zorro
May 19, 2024
Exactly. The real enemy is WITHIN AND WITHOUT
May 19, 2024
P. G. +++++. In a very short time weāll be seeing the crows come home to roost (rather late already, in truth) and the ineffectual and deluded (or pretending to be) politicians will have to take positions on this issue of internal and implacable Islamism which will totally dwarf the distractions of the present.
May 19, 2024
We still welcome the largest concept Trojan Horse ever imagined into the UK, if not into Europe.
May 19, 2024
+1 P G
I think many people are now, belatedly, waking up to the threat.
Thrust upon us by uncaring polititians who do not have ours or the countries best interests at heart.
May 19, 2024
Really? I donāt know about āthe Westā, but we canāt make our own steel anymore – thanks to YOUR government and its literally insane energy policy.
May 20, 2024
Yes, that comment was hilarious – we would not last two weeks conventionally against Russia – assuming that our soldiers didn’t misgender each other and have a crisis!
zorro
May 19, 2024
Indeed, and very pertinent
The West has had several opportunities to negotiate a halt to the killing, but it seems that the interests of the USA have not been satisfied yet. Why would we continue to supply arms to a lost cause?
We already know that the USA had several illegal labs in Ukraine. Is the intention to see Ukraine destroyed so that no evidence remains, or are the USA after more?
The USA already has nuclear facilities close to Russia’s borders in different areas. Completing this ring of fire in the disputed parts of Ukraine would certainly be a major threat to Russia.
May 19, 2024
Where will a supposed threat by USA against Russia show itself?
This ‘ring of fire’ is a vivid imagination.
May 19, 2024
@MT -99
The ring of fire is all too real.
By escalating this war the USA would bring on WW3 – that’s why they want NATO involved.
May 20, 2024
I feel that Mr Biden is far too ‘invested’ in many ways in Ukraine, and is worried about what will be revealed if they lose! I suppose that he can always plays the befuddled grandad defence.
zorro
May 19, 2024
Sir John your position – “The forces of Ukraine face a larger enemy and need plenty of help from NATO with weapons, ammunition and financial support.”
You appear to be an MP who supports this war with Russia and not bothered will lead to WWIII.
The rest of your piece tries to water down your position with a highly biased view of NATO and its purpose.
We need MP’s whose first position is to look for peace not war.
NATO and the EU started this war with Russia in 2014.
Their problem – No Russia as an enemy No need for NATO
Reply I have set out both sides. I have not yet given a view on what the UK should do. I have been critical of some EU actions.
May 19, 2024
NATO is not superior to Russia. NATO would suffer a catastropic defeat in the case of all out war and is already defeated in Ukraine. The delusions our so called leaders suffer from with kill us all for no possible benefit whatsoever. Wars are started by politicians for the benefit of bankers, we need to be rid of the ruling elite who are a threat to our liberty and our lives.
May 20, 2024
That is the view of most independent military analysts too.
May 19, 2024
“At some point there will need to be negotiations and a ceasefire” The flaw with that would be similar to the West contriving with Russia to hand over the Crimea to create a previous ceasefire. So once more territory is handed over and Russia come back for more, what then?
May 19, 2024
āNegotiation and ceasefireā is a line from the UN textbook, wars need to be concluded and won convincingly ā¦.ceasefire prolongs conflict and suffering
May 19, 2024
Europe needs to step up, always relying on the US to be the prime giver of defence and the Worlds police force is ridiculous. The USA contrive(Russia & China in unison) or otherwise has its defence stretched on its western side with China being belligerent to its neighbours.
Europe is a larger by far population than the US it wouldn’t been unreasonable for the funding and commitments to be proportional
May 19, 2024
My view on the Ukraine conflict is simple: if NATO is not prepared to fight, and in that, it is entirely right, it has no business prolonging the conflict between two almost equally horrible and corrupt nations. Wars must be about national interest, and not about democracy versus all other forms of government: some suit one, and some suit others.
The problems in the Middle East were increased immeasurably by the toppling of Saddam Hussein. Before that, a balance of power existed between Iraq and Iran, as they fought each other, which though it did little to keep peace between Israel and the Palestinians, did serve to keep Iran more or less in check in a global context.
May 19, 2024
We all know this isn’t a real war in the true sense, a proxy writ large. We need Trump in the WH to smash the Globalists and the warmongers both in the west, in Beijing and in Moscow
And someone tell Cameron he ain’t no Kissinger, he’s an embarrassment to our nation
May 20, 2024
I agree with you.
May 19, 2024
I am really shocked by this article. If JR has no idea that NATO has been beaten in itās proxy war with Russia, still labours under the illusion that āNATO would beat Russiaā no wonder we are in such danger.
The will be no cease fire. There will be unconditional surrender.
There is no Ukrainian Army left – they are killed, that is what a war of Attrition is all about. Now they can take territory will minimum loss which is how Russia has conducted this war. Careful of the lives of its servicemen.
The west has been de-militarised. Why do you think they are trying to buy shells in the world market to give to Ukraine. Ukraine has burned through 25% of British military armaments and infrastructure – and of course its worse than that because now the Russians also know how to jam all of our equipment.
God help us all. JR is by a military mile the brightest in Parliament, and heās lost!
Reply NATO has not committed troops or its best weapons to this conflict. Ukraine has pushed Russia well back from its original objective of taking the capital and putting in a different government, though is now losing some ground in bitter fighting. NATO has far more firepower than Russia but is rightly not using it nor declaring war on Russia. 16 aircraft carrier forces to Russia’s one, etc. I post many of your pieces putting the Russian view, but it would be helpful if you were more selective about which bits of Russian statements you use and believe. So far neither side has been able to defeat the other and both have shown determination and commitment to the fight. There have been all too many deaths on both sides.
May 19, 2024
āWithOUT a gun to his head ā¦.
May 20, 2024
JR – there are two kinds of vessels in the navy – submarines and targets.
zorro
May 19, 2024
I note you avoided expressing your view on whether Ukraine should be part of NATO or not, Sir John?
Reply I agree with present policy that all the time Ukraine is at war with Russia it cannot be a member. It would be wrong to settle a policy over post war membership as that will in part depend on the peace treaty conclusions.
May 19, 2024
As an aside. The media reporting in the west of Fico’s attempted assassination has been nothing less than disturbing, almost gleeful but then one looks at his politics in relation to the EU and immigration and it all makes sense.
We really do live in dangerous times and that danger is being deliberately manufactured
May 20, 2024
Yes, I saw Professor Michael Clarke on Sky News going through this – I thought that his commets were very unedifying and illjudged, but worth a view.
zorro
May 19, 2024
In both Ukraine and Gaza the U.S., despite distinctions of approach, seems keen to avoid any spread to a wider conflict.
Given the expectation of peace talks over Ukraine, what is NATO awaiting before encouraging same? Why should U.K. peace and security be jeopardized waiting for others to finish gaining whatever it is they achieve from continuation of the war?
May 19, 2024
It would not seem sane for the EU (and here I include the UK) to pursue the twin policies of aggressive eastwards expansion leading to meddling in Ukrainian politics to the annoyance of Russia and Net Zero, a policy designed to de-industrialise and hence destroy our economies and our energy and, importantly, military security. Even to the extent of halting our production of cheap, reliable hydrocarbon fuels ā coal, gas and oil and instead relying on supplies from Russia. Even today gas and nuclear fuel is still being imported from Russia.
The reason for both these dangerous, damaging and impoverishing policies is because both are driven by the fifth column Communists who have infiltrated our Parliament, Civil Service and institutions.
There is no climate emergency caused by burning hydrocarbon fuels as increasing CO2 results in negligible additional warming because of IR saturation as shown by Happer & Wijngaarden. Basically there is already sufficient atmospheric CO2 to absorb all the IR radiation available to it as defined by its main IR band and the Earthās IR Planck distribution curve. Even the captured Royal Society admits that IR saturation exists for its main IR band.
May 19, 2024
The real situation at times of conflict is that the first thing to take a walk is the truth.
May 19, 2024
and the wrong people die.
May 19, 2024
Part of the problem Ukraine has is in its limitation to respond in attacking sites in Russia . The weaponry it receives comes with restrictions of use – an embargo imposed by NATO suppliers . If the war was extended significantly into Russian territory it would be justified but , inevitably , it would lead to further international mayhem . Everything points to a negotiation from both the 2 warring sides and a deal struck over some Ukraine territory . We , and other concerned countries , can only stand by and keep our fingers crossed .
May 19, 2024
Russian isn’t looking to gain a little territory. The object of the Putin regime is to install a puppet government in Kiev and make Ukraine like Belarus.
May 19, 2024
More serious is the War being fought by those that are pretending to be Government they are fighting the UK and its People. Seemingly they are the emery within. Causing disruption and working to aid Russian and Chinese aspirations of causing bankruptcy of the UK at every level.
OT – From the Telegraph, āSeveral One Nation Tories āin talks with Labour about defectionsā
How the Tory Leadership and its policemen the CCHQ encouraged Socialists anti-Conservative MPs to take the schilling and invade the party beggarās belief. They were never āone nationā anything just lost disciples of Socialism.
The Conservative Party needs to get back to being Conservatives, remove the big prolific spenders, the ever-higher taxers done to hide their own incompetence, all WOKE Socialist. Reinforce democracy and freedoms, work with the majority of society, listen to them, hear them. Under this leadership there is of course āno-chanceā.
This Conservative Government is daily writing its own obituary and the Conservative Party is endorsing it ā collectively they have disenfranchised the voter, the real supporters of the UK.
Real support for the Ukraine? or just tokenism paid out of the Defence of the UK budget to aid the electioneering of those seeking a ‘virtue-signal’ to polish their personal self-esteem
May 20, 2024
I’m sure we can all surmise who these Socialist-CONs considering defecting are: top of my list is Tobias Elwood, currently looking to be kicked out of his Bournemouth seat in the GE.
May 19, 2024
Donald Trump is often maligned and thought to be stupid mainly in essence for not being a conventional politician. Biden by contrast is conventional, a conventional lefty. Biden has therefore (after Boris Johnson was brave enough to initiate the aid to Ukraine process, circumventing Putin’s dire threats over it) provided aid but not the unrestricted aid and high enough quality aid to enable Ukraine to quickly win the war and consequently probably end Putin’s awful regime. Trump by contrast advocated an ultimatum to both sides that they must either agree peace on compromise terms (pretty much dictated by Trump) or else he would put the party not agreeing to it in an impossible position. If Ukraine refused he would supply them with no equipment nor help; if Russia refused he would have immediately supplied Ukraine with the most sophisticated weapons America has to enable it to win quickly. Although I personally would have skipped the compromise agreement proposal and just supplied Ukraine with the most sophisticated equipment immediately, Trump’s idea is far more intelligent and in the end less costly and far less damaging than the conventional thinking. Even if Trump is not the nicest of people he is the most intelligent person around in American politics and it is time that was recognised not least by the commentariat, the unintelligent commentariat here in Britain.
May 20, 2024
100% agree with you.
May 19, 2024
In 1991, Ukraine became the third largest nuclear power in the world and held about one third of the former Soviet nuclear weapons, delivery system, and significant knowledge of its design and production. Ukraine inherited about 130 UR-100N intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) with six warheads each, 46 RT-23 Molodets ICBMs with ten warheads apiece, as well as 33 heavy bombers, totaling approximately 1,700 nuclear warheads remained on Ukrainian territory.
Budapest Memorandum
On December 5, 1994 the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, United Kingdom, and the United States signed a memorandum to provide Ukraine with security assurances in connection with its accession to the NPT as a non-nuclear weapon state. The four parties signed the memorandum, containing a preamble and six paragraphs. The memorandum reads as follows:
Confirm the following:
1. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine.
2. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defence or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations.
And so on……..
Another Internation Agreement/law? that no one abides by….
May 19, 2024
20 years later – 2014 saw Russia invade the Ukraine and annexed the Crimea. “to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine.” ?
May 19, 2024
By that time, Ian, NATO and the EU had engineered the Maidan coup and were unrolling their plan to arm Kiev for a war on Russian-speaking provinces in the east of Ukraine. People that Russia saw as fascists were in charge in Ukraine, and posing a threat to the Russian minority in the Donbass and in Crimea. The situation had changed from 1994. In 2014 Russia was using the R2P (Right to Protect) doctrine, as NATO did in Kosovo and Libya. Sauce for the goose…?
May 19, 2024
Update, the US is pulling away from war in Ukraine, old plan to divide Russia into 12 new countries, to which they already made 12 new flags is off the table.
The US is moving to a position of supplying arms and satellite only and will all have to be paid for by EU and UK.
John, you sould keep up with the latest brain waves coming out of Washington.
May 19, 2024
-The “Empire of lies”!
– Brexit – we will see?
-Ukraine has no army left. Even with conscription and press gangs.
– It lost the war, before the war started.
-Putin does not want the problems of Ukraine. Russia wants a secure border and peaceful business relations. Who does not? Other Russian leaders may have ended this conflict a lot more quickly and brutally.
This will all end post the “US election” if not earlier by Ukraine collapse. The lies will all be exposed. Assuming we don’t go nuclear.
The US cannot pay its debt pile . An extra trillion $ every 100 days. Maybe its the “$ DEBT is the war problem”
We are nothing more than a plaything of the globalists. Being steadily diluted and replaced.
UK- self sufficiency we are not allowed to even run our own country properly.
Base load surplus to export power or heavy goods to our allies?
You cant print win or virtue signal out of reality.
May 19, 2024
The people of Ukraine in the West will end this civil war between the Russian Ukrainian in the East, moves in that direction with lorry drives in Odesa not working and if spreads, then it over.
May 19, 2024
The problem in Ukraine is that the US, UK and EU are providing weapons that can only be used in Ukraine. You cannot fight and win a defensive war. Russia has a huge manpower advantage and is always prepared to throw bodies at opposing forces until they are worn down.
Ukraine must be given weapons to target Russian Oil, Power and Water facilities, as Russia is targeting Ukraines’.
This war is a wake-up call for all Western Nations, and what they do or don’t do will send a clear message to Putin, Xi of China and other dictators that we either are or are not prepared to defend our freedoms and way of life.
May 19, 2024
Of what freedom do you speak? Biden has asked America yesterday to āgive up democracy to protect freedomā.
Iām assuming he is speaking of his and his sonās freedom for jail.
May 19, 2024
103 illegal aliens /boat people arrived yesterday from the safe country of France
May 19, 2024
Any flights to Rwanda yet ? Did Sunak said spring or summer ?
May 19, 2024
Your last paragraph says it all John. NATO (the Americans) wants Russia to be an enemy to justify its existence.
May 19, 2024
So you want the ATACMS missiles that are regularly being shot down over Crimea to be fired at pre-2014 Russia, where they are just as likely to be shot down? What for? In its own interests, I think NATO has to drop this pointlesss war and take a few years’ furlough to digest lessons learnt, improve its military technology, and let the Military-Industrial Complex catch up with Russia. Moscow has been preparing for high-tech war for years, has put high-volume superior military production facilities in place, and has successfully roadtested its military against what NATO can offer. It’s winning, and NATO’s top people know that, even if they won’t admit it yet to the voters. To my mind, you’re right about the wake-up call, Keith, but waking up to the truth doesn’t mean carrying on with this futile war. NATO should be looking ahead 5, 10 or 15 years to the position it wants to be in then. Especially as regards the Far East. From that perspective, Ukraine will have been just a badly handled sideshow.
May 19, 2024
“NATO rightly claims to be a defensive alliance” – so how to explain NATO’s wars of aggression against Serbia and Afghanistan?
“At some point there will need to be negotiations and a ceasefire” – so why did Boris Johnson intervene to prevent implementation of the agreement hammered out in Istanbul two years ago?
We should stop deluding ourselves – Just one example; Russia has fired about 7,500 missiles into Ukraine each year. The US makes around 600 Patriot interceptors per year. Typically two interceptors are fired at each incoming target. Russia has shown a far greater capacity to ramp up production than have Lockheed Martin and Raytheon who make Patriot interceptors. Moreover, Israel has has call on such interceptors.
May 20, 2024
Sir, the fundamental issue is that the war should never have happened.
Russia would not have had to go in to safeguard people of the Donbass region etc had NATO allies recognised the provocation their actions and rhetoric were creating. Ukraine’s actions from 2014 onwards towards the people in the eastern regions were abhorrent.
All parties concerned refused to negotiate with him in a meaningful (honest) vein, so Putin was left with no choice but to invade and by only sending in some 100,000+ troops it was clear his intent was not to annex the whole of Ukraine. Outside interference, once again, is the cause of this conflict.
A negotiated agreement would have prevented this “war”, and clearly is the only way to end it now. Sending more money and arms will just prolong the debacle.
May 20, 2024
If you had written this piece a year or two ago, Sir John, it would have been timely and apposite. Now, talking of how NATO could help Ukraine ‘win’ is just wistful irrelevance. The issue is by how much it will lose, and how much NATO can save face. With massive Western help, Ukraine tried last year to break through Russia’s defensive lines on the Zaporozhia front, so as to reach Crimea. It failed. Now it is trying to hold the Russians off from advancing on Kharkov. Again, it is failing – the defensive works paid for with Western taxpayers’ money hadn’t been built, such is the corruption there. A more relevant article from you now would be headed ‘What future for Ukraine?’ Assuming there is one, of course. Yes, there will be peace negotiations, as you say. What matters is what sort of deal is still achievable for Ukraine in those negotiations. A neutral country with its Eastern border on the Dniepr might be the best outcome it can still get, perhaps if NATO threatened further escalation if Moscow did not accept that.