The last government held a multi year spending review setting out spending plans for the 3 years 2022-3 to 2024-5. They would have held another this autumn to set 2025-6 to 2027-8. The absence of plans from next year means the new government can set out new plans without needing to amend old ones.
The government has decided it cannot deliver a 3 year spending plan this year, delaying it until spring 2025. Budget 2024 therefore needs to set out a one year spending plan for 2025-6 pending the longer term plan. The budget as always will also review progress with this year’s spending against plan, a plan set by the outgoing government.
The government has chosen to have a row about the adequacy of provision for this year. Their alleged £22 bn overrun of spending includes £11 bn of extra pay largely brought on by their choice to put pay up by much more than inflation which the original estimates allowed for. The second big item is more than £6 bn extra for migrants, in part the result of illegal crossings going up this summer as the new government scrapped Rwanda and struggled to control numbers. The original overall budget did include a contingency fund as there are often overspends in year.
Press reports say Cabinet Ministers are angry that Treasury Ministers are asking them to consider reductions in spending to offset increases they wish to make. This is a normal process undertaken by past Labour as well as Conservative governments. It is important Treasury challenges spending streams. Total public spending has surged from £852 bn in 2018-19 to £1226 bn this year, a rise well ahead of inflation. Any budget for next year needs to start by reviewing what all that money is spent on, why public service productivity has fallen and whether some of it like Bank and railway losses is avoidable.
Too many Labour Ministers think increasing public spending is a good. Delivering more and better public service in NHS and schools is a good. Doing it more efficiently at lower cost is better. When I go into a shop I do not want to know they have just spent more on running the shop. I want great products at good prices.
October 19, 2024
This Labour government have arrived at the table totally unprepard. The first 100 days have been marked by Starmers nose being discovered in the trough, paying off their union supporters, class envy, and empty promises on immigration. In fact their solution to resolving illegal immigration, a crime no less, is to vet them into legality or just ignore them. The coming budget will be indicative of how long they can stay in power.
Your analysis treats them as a normal government, not in the historical context of Labour governments of old. Their financial competence has always been flawed by too many vested interests to pay off. The irony is that an equally incompetent reign of a so called conservative government put them in power. I suspect you want goverrnment played to a set of eternal rules like golf. Too many players are cheating, effectively destroying the game. We need the great reset that Kimi Badanoch hinted at, but that only Reform are likely to give the UK. More of is no answer.
October 19, 2024
Ref, ‘Infrastructure Spending’, or in accounting terms, Capital Spending. From the Guardian:
‘Rachel Reeves is pushing ahead with plans to borrow billions of pounds extra for infrastructure investment, the Guardian has learned, despite concerns about the rising cost of UK government debt.
The chancellor told the cabinet on Tuesday she wanted to change how the Treasury accounted for capital spending to reflect its benefits, as allies say she intends to finalise her debt rule in the coming days.’
So, if this comes to pass then 2 things happen; the opportunity to throw huge amounts of Net Zero, and other vanity non productive spending, into a new account that has no limit. Second, it relieves the pressure on ‘day to day’ spending limits to allow large increases in pay for unions and mates. The fact that repayment and interest still comes from general taxation doesn’t seem to factor, and therefore COMBINED total borrowing and debt service will shoot up. Will the OBR object? Where is the pushback?
Labour sending ‘socialist dreamers’ to help the Democratic Party win in the US elections smacks of the naivety of the 1950’s Communist movement. Lets hope they don’t get visas.
We have running this county a group who think the communist ideal is achievable and viable; a strong common sense opposition in our Parliament is needed urgently.
October 19, 2024
+1
October 19, 2024
Spot on !
Which I would imagine why the Little Usurper chose to go for an early election. He saw what was coming ahead and decided to let them, Labour, take it on.
October 19, 2024
“Total public spending has surged from £852 bn in 2018-19 to £1226 bn this year, a rise well ahead of inflation” – so much for austerity then (as you have shown hitherto).
Yet another opportunity for Mr. Sunak to make a devasting critique in his budget reply.
October 19, 2024
Well Sunak was one of the worst Chancellors we have had with his vast waste on net harm lockdowns, net harm vaccines, vast QE, vast increases in borrowing, net zero lunacy and all wasted. Even worse the ERM Major, 98% income tax Denis Healey, sell the gold, rob the pensions Gordon Brown…
He then even lies (unless he is a complete moron) to parliament that the Covid Vaccines were safe.
See “Proof, DNA contamination report” Dr John Campbell.
October 19, 2024
Rather clever of Sunak to put the blame for all his gross and serial incompetence as Chancellor onto Liz Truss though – and to replace her – having already managed to bury Boris.
October 19, 2024
He CAN do it.
He literally predicted this mess very forcefully ( if you vote Labour this, this and this will happen. It has!)
Just does not get televised/reported.
Swept under the carpet.
He needs a bit of good PR.
Someone should drag him onto GB News.
Or better still do a Grand Tour?
October 19, 2024
The Conservative Party should make their own PR statements releases, that has been part of the problem for the last 14 years no real sensible Communication with anybody.
October 19, 2024
The Tories can hardly challenge Labour for continuing their policy of government incompetence.
October 19, 2024
Agree!
But they could at least…at the very least considering the mess we are now in…
They could at least have a go!
October 19, 2024
But didn’t he cause much of it with his wasteful lockdown subsidies for corporate giants and fraudsters?
That doesn’t give him much of a leg to stand on…
October 19, 2024
I want great products, good prices, convenience indeed. But above all freedom and choice and a level playing field so I can go elsewhere should other offer better.
But what we have been offered by the Con Socialist Tories like Gove for 14 years (see his first tedious article as Spectator Editor) and now even worse from Labour is a Government knows best system. A rigged energy market, transport market (trains and buses hugely subsidised cars hugely over taxed and drivers mugged), car market rigged, education market rigged, healthcare rigged, housing rigged, restricted planning, soft university loans for largely worthless degrees…
If this rigged market is such idea why not tax people even more then give them half price groceries, fashion items and other product at state run shops. That should go well. All to have electric Trabant cars with a range of say 10 miles between charges after a 15 year wait – unless Starmer thinks you are “extreme right” in which case you walk.
The policy of VAT on private school fees is exactly the reverse of what is needed. Nearly all schools should be privately run and give people vouchers and tax breaks and freedom of choice. The same for the NHS. The more who go privately the better for the tax payer education and healthcare.
October 19, 2024
Let’s say we all ‘go private’ for health. Who is going to train doctors and nurses?
October 19, 2024
The same people as do now. But there will be more demand and better pay so more will train, & more will stay rather than going to work overseas at now. Plus they will be better managed and do more operations per week.
October 19, 2024
I hope you know that the private medical sector does not deal with emergencies. The private doctors will do a great job for a price if you need a new hip, knee or some spinal treatment. They will not take you if you have a heart attack or a traffic accident.
October 19, 2024
Well yes. That is because we have a free NHS emergency service so how can the private sector compete with free? Albeit one with extremely long waiting times such that you might well die before the ambulance arrives or you get seen by anyone at A&E.
October 19, 2024
Mike
How do other Countries cope ?
October 19, 2024
According to a famous historian, way back in the early 20s, the leading tories were handed copies of “The Master’s” memoirs with the words…
“This is the way to govern”
Oh and the PM actually declared that the tories would henceforward welcome liberals!
Of course people should have the choice of private provision.
We have had socialism by stealth since the 50s…stoked by media ramped-up politics of envy.
And the only aim is to reduce us all to poverty.
Still the whole shebang is taking on a somewhat comic note. Rats in a sack?
October 19, 2024
Well said, Lifelogic.
I’m afraid Gove gave the game away when he “embraced” the Eco Goblin and subsequently ensure that the Covid Tyranny would be imposed on us.
We are being deliberately “levelled down” to deliver the UN 2030 Agenda.
October 19, 2024
+1
October 19, 2024
The government is spending £1.2 trillion, this is a disgrace because it’s over 50% of GDP
We really need s collapse of confidence in government borrowing so it is forced to drastically reduce spending. I would bet at least 25% of this expenditure is waste and could be slashed
To start with the civil service could be halved and their golden pensions culled.
I find it obscene that a train driver gets an inflation busting pay rise paid for by taxing my pension and cancelling my WFA.
Reform are ahead in the polls
Maybe we can soon read the last rites of the uniparty.
October 19, 2024
More like 70% is wasted and about 40% is surely spend doing positive harm as I list above. Net Zero the largest insanity. 31months in jail for a foolish tweet for example or the Lucy Letby injustice and the sick jokes of the Letby and Covid inquiries, the net harm vaccines, net harm lockdowns, the bonkers energy policy…
October 19, 2024
The Golden Pensions culled? Unlikely as MPs get even more golden pensions linked to the usually higher CPI. Starmer even has his own act of parliament still we are all in it together as they like to lie.
Still our King of climate hypocrisy (and deluded climate alarmism) did take a scheduled flight to Australia it seems. First class I assume & so using about 3 times as much CO2 and energy as an economy seat still it is a start I suppose – not that CO2 is a problem. How many staff went too I wonder?
October 19, 2024
Over 25% is a disgrace and so little of any value delivered in return.
October 19, 2024
Cancelling your WFA won’t pay for the pay rises. It also needs more borrowing and forcing the next generation into servitude with more National Debt.
October 19, 2024
Public spending is budgeted in advance. So under the last five years of the Conservatives in office, public spending rose by nearly 50% to this year. If that was OK with the party now in opposition, why would the party now in power do any different?
Reply It wasn’t OK and they lost!
October 19, 2024
I suppose they called this 50% increase in public spending “investment”? All the money wasted on net harm Covid measures was an “investment” I suppose Labour will do the same. To Governments Investment meant “piss down the drain” or better still hose into the pockets of friends, crony capitalists or political donors, supporters or givers of free concert tickets.
October 19, 2024
Following its review by Jacob Rees-Mogg the other evening I purchased a copy of Return To Growth by Jon Moynihan. In it he convincingly demonstrates why economies, like the UK’s, with high public spending, high taxation and high national debt will fail catastrophically unless someone comes along and succeeds in the painful process of reversing course. The Labour government clearly will accelerate the onset of national financial catastrophe. Everything they say, do and signal will ensure this outcome. The only question is how long will it take?
October 19, 2024
Sir John, you have forgotten the Labour policy of job creation. More jobs and better jobs is one of their fixed policies, no doubt driven home at every party conference by the union pay masters.
Now as the unions are now based almost entirely within the Public Sector, it should come as no surprise when Labour refuse to consider efficiency. Most of us consider efficiency is the measure of achieving more outcome for less, Labour consider efficiency as creating more jobs for less outcome, thus feeding union dues and consolidating state controls.
Labour want more state authority more nationalisation more business control and more recently more legal powers to micro manage society.
With those standard Labour policies in mind, we shuld not be surprised when taxes are increased and freedoms are reduced. It is a socialist thing.
October 19, 2024
The government is right to not set out a spending plan – there’s little to gain by announcing in advance for years and then having to row back – under preeent difficult conditions govt needs tme and the flexibility – it especially needs time to reign in overspend and waste – it needs time to see ‘how it goes’ – a twelve months wait will tell a lot – I would say that that’s prudent and responsible – and the best way to say goodbye to populism.
October 19, 2024
Rein not reign
October 19, 2024
The surge in spending from 2018/19 is surely an indicator that the population figures are fictional. The water companies seem to think that the sewage output increase shows this to be the case. With all the illegals disappearing into the ether, people who will never fill in a census form, I am convinced the population is north of 70 million, purely by the unscientific but everyday experience of the roads, the doctors appointments, the NHS overwhelmed, etc. I just don’t trust government figures anymore, especially since they refuse to provide statistics on who is committing crime etc. and either don’t collect the figures or more likely keep them hidden from the public view. I am fast losing interest in politics as it seems most politicians are charlatans and will support anything their bosses order – the recent vote on the Winter Fuel Allowance is proof positive – I just don’t believe they all in their hearts agree with killing off pensioners as Labour said would happen a few years ago when the Tories proposed it. Our politics is self serving and without honour now.
October 19, 2024
Graham
As I have said before, the most accurate figures can be gained by measuring the percentage increase in human waste treatment (sewerage)
This is how Slough found out that they had approximately 9,000 more people living in their area than official figures showed.
On getting this information a drone scan of the area showed a huge number of previously unknown shanty town type extensions and garage conversions in back gardens, and houses with huge multiple occupations.
I think the Uk has probably got a population nearer to 75 million than the official 68 million suggested.
October 19, 2024
I always believed that “grown ups” were wise, kind and generous … that they maintained solidarity in the face of adversity…and always had a sound plan…
Oh well….
October 19, 2024
and then you fell to earth in a fireball!
October 19, 2024
More like in a cold, wet fog…but yes the realisation was painful.
A ball of fire falling from the sky is probably an asteroid.
An asteroid named Apophis, after the Egyptian god of chaos Apep, is expected to pass close to Earth in 2029. So that suits very well indeed.
Chaos. That’s all they can offer us!
October 19, 2024
There is still a mentality in government that demands throwing money at problems.
This has never worked out. Effective management is the answer, but that seems to have become extinct at all levels, especially at cabinet level.
When is the public going to get value for money?
Why is parliament so keen to spend our money without proper budgeting?
When will we see responsible spending done for the benefit of the whole of the UK?
Why is so much dogma and irrational ideology allowed to enter into the economic discussion?
October 19, 2024
Its easy to spend large sums of money, where is the reform & greater productivity
I don’t have a good feeling about our new government
October 19, 2024
So far £12bn for climate aid, £20bn for carbon capture and storage ( with the possibility of £40bn coming through for Drax), £9bn for the GBE quango, the continuing £12.5bn for interruptibles and the rapid cessation on North Sea oil gas taxation. And that is just one government department. Gas will go up with the addition of taxation moved from electricity, so that 75 % of the country will have heating bills increasing significantly. All this for the belief of the cult net zero. I despair.
October 19, 2024
In the news the Chancellor is going to shove billions more into the NHS to sort out waiting lists.
My colleague’s elderly father had to go into hospital recently. Despite needing urgent care, he had to wait his turn behind a clinic full of drunks. He’s a Yorkshireman, so not given to complaining.
Time the NHS was relieved of the responsibility of treating lifestyle diseases. That would free up resources for genuine need.
October 19, 2024
Makes you want to cry at the level thinking and total incompetence of our politicians both past and present, that so much money taken from those who work and invest, is simply wasted and spent inefficiently, year after year, after year.
Why do they not realise that the more they take from the people, the less the people have to spend, so the economy shrinks !.
The Government produces nothing but heartache for those who are trying to survive and better themselves.
October 19, 2024
I see empolyment going up as more people come into the UK and unempolyment going up at the same time as people already here cannot find a job, while disability claimsgo through the roof.
I like the idea of 10 billion a month which is recorded as spending going to the BOE to keep GDP up.
October 19, 2024
“You can’t taper a ponzi scheme”
October 19, 2024
“Total public spending has surged from £852 bn in 2018-19 to £1226 bn this year, a rise well ahead of inflation. ”
Caused by:
1. The Covid Tyranny
2. The Net Zero lunacy, which Johnson put on steroids
3. The importation of close to 4 million poor, low-wage, low-skill immigrants, both legal and illegal. 85% of the legal immigrants the last Not-a-Conservative-Government imported were either students, their dependants or low-wage … meaning they immediately required provision via the welfare system (at best Tax Credits, at worse a great deal more). If you import poverty, then the welfare bill – as well as the cost of public services – inevitably rises.
Keir-Ching! and his bunch of Socialist Students are making all three of these poverty generators worse, along with adding a few of their own such as:
1. deliberately driving entrepreneurs and the wealthy out of the country
2. increasing both the salaries (and therefore overly generous pensions) of Public Sector workers
3. increasing the cost of governance with imposed regional devolution of England
And the only visible Opposition in Parliament is coming from the 5 MPs representing Reform. His Majesty’s Official Opposition is naval-gazing and keeping schtum, presumably hoping we’ll forget that they are significantly responsible for the destruction of our economy.
October 19, 2024
Donna :
Agreed.
But how does it happen that we have a Uniparty Parliament and a set of institutions determined to destroy our economy with Net Zero and who continue to invite an invasion of unidentified men of fighting age coming from hostile nations with alien, misogynistic cultures and practices with offers of free 4 star hotel accommodation, healthcare, £40/week pocket money and the freedom to roam the streets and take up black market jobs displacing the indigenous population? You would think that at the very least these illegal immigrants would be ankle tagged.
But more importantly, how do we stop it?
October 19, 2024
Haha!
When ideology smashes into reality!
😂
October 19, 2024
Quite apart from any other reason for cutting public spending (and there are many) one crucial reason that ought to concentrate government ministers’ minds is that if taxes are massively raised without equally severe cuts in public spending, the bond hawks will force an increase in interest rates, and that plus the large wage increases the Labour government has gleefully ‘awarded’ their supporters will very likely trigger an inflationary death-spiral and the intervention of the IMF. Just when will the Labour hive-mind grow up?
October 20, 2024
Perhaps this is the plan with Starmer crawling on his knees back to the EU etc etc
It seems one can give away British territory at a whim and at a cost!!! So its only one step further to give away GB.
October 19, 2024
The SoS for DESNZ and Chris Stark of Mission Control have written a formal letter to NESO requesting practical advice on achieving clean power by 2030 :
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/66cda5c1e39a8536eac0532e/sos-chris-stark-letter-clean-power-2030.pdf
This letter includes the request for the “high-level assessment of costs and benefits, opportunities and challenges, and risks.”
If NESO are honest in their reply then sums like “£22bn” and “£6bn” will be totally insignificant when compared to the cost to decarbonise our electricity by 2030. The cost will be akin to building HS2 every year for the next 5 years if we are to be left with an electricity supply which is at least reliable if not affordable.
October 19, 2024
Chris Stark seems to have some sort of half law degree from Glasgow and zero understanding of energy, energy economics, physics, entropy, climate… rather like Gummer (History) and it seems almost everyone in the Energy and Climate Departments. Wiki describes him as a “climate expert”!
The then Energy Security Secretary Claire Coutinho (who has a half maths degree Oxon and should know better) credited his leadership of the Committee with many advances, including helping the UK become “the first major economy to put our net zero commitments into law, with the UK becoming the first country in the G20 to halve its carbon emissions.”
They did this by exporting many jobs and industries so the CO2 was emitted elsewhere, moving to gas, false accounting for burning young coal (wood) at Drax and other economic and environmental insanities.
Yet mad zealot & Secretary of State Ed Miliband PPE appoints Chris Stark sort of law degree to head new Mission Control tasked with turbocharging UK to clean power by 2030. Total insanity from the mad government.
Plus since when was CO2 the gas of life dirty?
October 19, 2024
Look at this idiotic letter one gets the impression “across the pathways” that the two signatories are totally moronic and seem to think they are puppet actors in Stingray or Thunderbirds!
Someone tell these damn fools that CO2 is not “dirty” and is vital for trees, plants, crops, humans and all life on earth.
October 19, 2024
The whole letter is meaningless drivel this is a good example.
“the development of a Strategic Spatial Energy Plan (SSEP).
As you know, Government has established a new ‘Mission Control’
, with responsibility for accelerating delivery of a clean GB power system by 2030. “
“A power system” it is surely an energy and a reliable energy delivery system that is needed – and electricity is only circa 25% UK energy. The letter suggests we have moronic children in charge.
October 19, 2024
“Mission Control.”
Straight out of Thunderbirds, or was it Stingray?
That’s the level of intelligence on display.
October 19, 2024
LL :
It’s quite clear that SoS’s, Ministers and senior Civil Servants for departments such as DESNZ, DSIT and Mission Control need to attend (re-)education courses in basic physics.
Do barristers practice without a law degree? Are judges expected to know the law? Do our Parliamentarians expect to be operated upon by a team of surgeons and anaesthetists who have passed medical exams?
October 19, 2024
PS :
It was Carl Sagan, an American astronomer, planetary scientist and science communicator who said that giving control of a country that is highly dependent upon science and technology to a group who have no understanding of science, technology or engineering is a certain recipe for disaster.
October 19, 2024
647 criminals arrived in the UK yesterday from the safe country of France …..we’ll need to up the spending & tax
October 20, 2024
Keep up Glen, Starmer and crew have said they’re not criminals arriving illegally without paperwork and that they can stay!
October 19, 2024
I’m puzzled today to read an article in the Independent – headed: ” Staggering cost of Britain’s Brexit divorce revealed – and there’s billions more to pay EU” It states a figure paid as £23.8bn with a further £6.4bn still to pay…..
…. staggering figure as chancellor tries to raise funds to plug the £22bn “black hole” in Britain’s finances…..
Campaigners reacted with fury …. a campaign chief states ” It’s encouraging to see more data being shared about the cost of the UK’s exit from the EU …..” Really ? Just what is this & why the level of surprise and fury ? Is it or is it not part of the long ago announced estimate that was agreed & which is well known about / that we were due to pay, of £39 billion if my memory serves, or am I missing something ?
October 19, 2024
Diane
If I remember correctly Mrs May offered the Eu a settlement of £40 billion over a number of years, so no surprise at the cost at all, those figures suggest we have got away with a few £Billion.
Whilst it looked very expensive at the time, it now looks cheap by comparison to what is presently being wasted.
October 20, 2024
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-57778667
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/51110096
It should have been coming to an end other than the pension pay off from last September. Just what has been agreed to now?!
If the Tories aren’t willing to fight this, then this is fertile territory for Reform.
October 19, 2024
It’s clear Rwanda did have an effect on some of the potential illegal immigrants. Many arrived here and moved on to Dublin to ensure they were not going to be removed!
And Dublin had the cheek to tell us they would be returned! No matter their fellow EU members refuse us from doing the same!
Our country has had a problem with OTT immigration for decades exacerbated by Blair and his open-door philosophy to “Run diversity in the noses of the right”. A time when thousands were allowed in with no forethought on what was to be done with them and to our infrastructure to accommodate the new arrivals. Such is the way of socialists and their socialism. Nothing good is going to come from more of the same disasters.
October 19, 2024
Ref public spending on net-zero
Today I received a pamphlet posted by SP Energy Networks (scottish power), delivered by the postman, something my parents might have recognised in the early 70’s …..the pamphlet was entitled ”Preparing for a power cut”
What have our politcians brought us to !
October 20, 2024
Yes, my parents got one and have just bought a lamp, candles and are worried about how they’ll keep warm. America is catching returning rockets in mid-air and Britains government is taking us back in time. 🕰️
October 21, 2024
Devastating critique from DieterHelm which all policy makers should read
https://dieterhelm.co.uk/economics/the-uks-unsustainable-economy-not-enough-production-too-much-consumption-too-little-savings-and-too-much-debt/
October 26, 2024
The £6 billion saving from dealing with illegal immigration is the easiest area in which to cut expenditures. Votes will be gained from eliminating this cost – quite the opposite for nearly all other fund raising/cost cutting measures.