The UK needs to close a deal with President Trump now he has given the UK an opening with talks and the lowest rate of tariff. He recognises that UK trade with the US is a lot fairer than EU trade and judges it on tariffs, bans, regulations and taxes imposed. He also sees it in the wider context of the overall US/UK relationship.
President Biden always made clear he did not want a trade deal with the UK. Donald Trump would be happy to have one. Biden’s people imposed maximum pressure on PM Sunak to sign up to the bad Windsor Agreement, a one sided deal wanted by the EU and the Republic of Ireland. President Trump is extremely critical of the EU and welcomes being able to deal direct with an independent UK. The UK has already taken EU style tariffs off one fifth of product lines and should remove more.
PM Starmer should keep the Chagos islands, saving us money and reassuring the US about their crucial naval base, He should not impose any retaliatory tariffs. These are taxes on overtaxed UK consumers. The US would retaliate and hike their tariffs against us . That would lose us the advantage we currently have that our goods into the US will be 10% cheaper than EU goods and 14% cheaper than Japanese on proposed tariff levels.
The UK should remove the digital tax which does hit mainly US companies. We should let in US beef and chicken with suitable labels and let consumers decide. We should offer a zero tariff trade deal.
April 4, 2025
You should ask Canada whether trusting Trump to comply with a trade deal makes sense
April 4, 2025
Ask Canada what changed for them when Biden lived in the White House.
Canada is in the hands of full on Globalists. Poor Canada, their only hope is 51st State status.
April 5, 2025
That’s the last thing Canada needs. Trump has united Canadians against him. Their new PM is a shining example of how to deal with narcissists like Trump.
Reply Carney was a politicised bad Governor of the Bank of England. He has yet to show he can lift the tariff threat to his country or can police the borders to a good standard.
April 5, 2025
But Sir John, Carney is now the acclaimed leader of the Free World!
April 4, 2025
Has there been “a fundamental change of circumstances” to justify departure from the trade deal?
https://legal.un.org/ilc/texts/instruments/english/conventions/1_2_1986.pdf
Article 62:
“1. A fundamental change of circumstances which has occurred with regard to those existing at the time of the conclusion of a treaty, and which was not foreseen by the parties, may not be invoked as a ground for terminating or withdrawing from the treaty unless … “
April 4, 2025
Yes. Canada is channelling a killer drug and illegal immigrants over the border. An aggressive action.
Now let’s think about the U.K. and the EU …
April 5, 2025
What is the USA doing about the Iron River which flows south (the flow of guns and ammo from the USA to Mexico which forms the main source of weaponry for the Mexican drug cartels)?
The lack of action on this shows the utter hypocrisy of the current US administration. Fentanyl from Canada or Mexico is Canada/Mexico’s fault, but guns from the USA are not the USA’s fault. Trump, as always, wants it both ways.
April 5, 2025
Seems the Mexican weaponry is coming direct from Ukraine. They know because all these armaments are numbered etc.
April 4, 2025
Good morning.
Which this government would welcome as they can blame President Trump.
This government also wishes to align itself more closely with the EU so, I do not expect it to act in our interests. The Political Class and the Establishment, along with the EU, still view BREXIT as a mistake.
April 4, 2025
@Mark B +1. Yes, our government and EU ones will use Trump Derangement Syndrome (and Russia DS) to hoodwink their populations into welcoming the self-destructive WEF agenda to which they are addicted. The threat to our nations and way of life is from our own leaders, not external ones.
April 4, 2025
I see Germany is following France and introducing legislation to ban AfD. The left are really running scared as their failure is becoming obvious to the general public.
Everywhere immigration is destroying the fabric of society and non of it sanctioned by the voters.
April 4, 2025
Banning political opponents, but they will STILL claim to be democracies. It looks like their “democracies” are going to be as democratic as the former German Democratic Republic complete with a Stasi and informer-citizens.
April 4, 2025
‘Going to be’?
April 4, 2025
The CSU/CDU and the SPD really are giving the Germans the full uniparty experience.
April 4, 2025
@Mark B +1
They are frighted to do their job make decisions they need a foreign unelected unaccountable power to dictate direction and orders.
They refuse to be what we pay them to be the UK’s Legislators, life is cosy when as a ‘free-loader’ you just take orders
April 4, 2025
Donald Trump had 4 years to plan and prepare his Tariff strategy, with help from skilled supporters. It’s as powerful of working out 30 moves ahead in a chess game, but if his plan backfires he can revert to a reverse move at any moment.
Causing all trading countries to react at about the same time enables him scope to readjust any part of the whole pattern in manipulating any awkward reacting nation toward better terms for the US. Embracing even uninhabited islands in his Tariff rules demonstrates the detail of how much preparatory effort has gone in to blocking loopholes.
Starmer is taking what he regards as a cool, considered response, but his rush to compose ‘a 400-page revenge hitlist’ shows what a flap he is in by not thinking ahead. He wouldn’t even acknowledge the protection Brexit allowed us from what is currently distressing the EU, attributing the lowish 10% to the ‘special’ relationship.
April 5, 2025
We will continue to pay for our ‘special relationship’ and be grateful. Others know they have taken advantage but hoped the day would never come when the ‘protection racket’ would be prepared to walk away or have pay the full price.
April 4, 2025
Well Trump certainly isn’t acting in our interests either slapping us with 10%. He hasn’t shafted us as bad as he has the EU. But he’s certainly still shafted us.
April 4, 2025
They never viewed Brexit as a mistake. Just not what they wanted.
April 4, 2025
It is said that the way the new Trump tariffs are calculated for a country is by the formula:
“The value of US exports to a country divided by the value of a country’s exports to the USA times 100, then divided by 2, with a lower limit of 10%.”
It has nothing to do with calculations actually based on actual tariffs, non tariff barriers, currency manipulation, subsidies and other factors, real or imagined. These were quoted to provide a smokescreen to cover the way the new tariffs were calculated. It is irrational nonsense. If pursued and implemented it will destroy the basis of the last 70 years of international trade and cause a global depression. The government is right to stay calm. It should look for grown ups in the room among members of Congress who have the power to do something about it; there are signs that there are at least a few about who are speaking out, such as Rand Paul.
April 4, 2025
That’s not quite the calculation used. The calculation was “the size of the US trade deficit with a country divided by the value of a country’s exports to the USA, then divide by 2”. If that comes to less than 10% or if the US actually has a trade surplus with a particular country, set a minimum of 10%.
You are entirely correct that it has nothing to do with actual tariffs or non-tariff barriers.
Meanwhile the markets have given their verdict.
April 4, 2025
Meanwhile the markets have given their verdict.
Chicken Little mixed with profit taking. Next week it is time to be greedy
April 4, 2025
The ‘value’ of an export may be worth more than its monetary level. Some things cost next to nothing but save lives.
April 4, 2025
Thanks for the correction – a momentary brain fade by me.
April 4, 2025
But Oldtimer he has a point, China Japan and particularly the EU have been hiding behind a protectionist barrier for years. The EU is squealing particularly loud as it’s been one of the worst culprits. You may not like Teump but he makes a valid point.
April 4, 2025
It is true that non tariff barriers and the like have contributed to the huge US trade imbalances and their is good reason for the USA to do something about it. But the measures imposed will not achieve Trump’s objectives.
April 4, 2025
Yes they will. They already are. Hundreds of billions being invested in manufacturing within the USA from Taiwan etc.
April 4, 2025
Trump Tariffs are described as ‘protectionist’.
Maybe they do protect, but if applying only half of the tariff each trading nation applies protects, then in contrast those countries’ original levels show up like a heavy ATTACK.
April 4, 2025
+1
And not just tariff barriers, regulatory ones as well.
April 4, 2025
Except Trump doesn’t have a point. The weighted (by trade volume) average tariff for goods imported into the EU is 1.39%, for the USA it is 1.47%.
April 4, 2025
Correct. The EU has always been one of the greatest forces in favour of free trade globally. We need its leadership
Reply The opposite is true. It is a high tariff high barrier customs Union. It would not offer to reduce enough barriers to get a free trade agreement either with TPP or with US. We have been able to join TPP on leaving EU and could now do a US deal if we will remove sufficient of our EU left over barriers. EU is planning a big and wide ranging higher tariff hit with its bad carbon border tax.
April 4, 2025
Reply to reply: where is the Redwood who was talking up globalisation, free trade, comparative advantage, … What a decrepitude to be crawling before DJT.
As for the UK joining the CPTPP given that we already had FTAs with most countries, how much have Brunei and Malaysia increased in GDP? How many zeroes after the dot?
Reply Not crawling and not pro tariffs! Use this as chance of an FTA with US
April 4, 2025
“Correct. The EU has always been one of the greatest forces in favour of free trade globally. We need its leadership”
My goodness – Try telling that to African coffee bean producers…
April 5, 2025
The EU policy on Africa seems to have been to shut it out of all trade with Europe while taking its raw materials at rock bottom prices and then get GB to give copious aid in compensation.
April 4, 2025
Thanks for that, and good luck if you think that people here will understand your point, PeterP.
April 4, 2025
Just because we don’t agree with your point doesn’t mean we don’t understand it – a common mistake made by groupthink lefties. Trump’s trade protectionism is in fact very similar to that advocated by Corbyn and the Green Party.
April 4, 2025
Corbyn and the Green Party, for what I remember, were not aiming at destroying the 70 year agreement on international trade. Maybe you should read John Bolton, not a groupthink leftie, in this month Prospect.
April 4, 2025
That’s a very partial statistic Peter hiding
much higher tariffs on US imports into the EU on pecific things like 10% for automotive.
Four times the US tariff.
There are a lot of zero rated US imports but there are some hugh tariff targeted items which is why the average looks low.
April 4, 2025
Correct. And I suppose Trump also likes tariffs because he doesn’t need Congressional approval for them whereas other measures which massively increased taxes on US consumers would.
Anyway, UK should do nothing at all to retaliate but should assess all our existing tariffs on all other countries to decide if they are in UK’s interest and remove them if not. For example, why did the Conservatives leave a 10% tariff on import of oranges ? Why are we still trying to protect Spanish growers ? (I assume our FTA with the EU has 0% tariff for them).
The position of Northern Ireland is interesting – could the EU funnel exports to USA through there to benefit from the lower UK tariff ?
April 4, 2025
Trump has implemented 10% on Great Britain, not on the United Kingdom. I believe NI is in the 20% EU bracket.
Reply I think Ni as part of the UK exports to US at 10%. Ni faces imposing high retaliatory tariffs on imports if the EU presses ahead with those.
April 4, 2025
BTW your formula is correct except the first term is the US trade in good deficit with a country.
April 4, 2025
Yes, all forms of the US media are enjoying a great deal of gallows humour over the methodology. However, there are many more variables yet to play. What of China’s rare minerals, will ‘groceries’ costs (Trumps new found word) suddenly jump and cause inflation to jump and civil unrest, will the EU ratchet up tariffs and cause a major political rift. Will the ‘Tech-Bros’ scream terror and say they need to import their product from low cost manufacturers.
The last issue we also know, Trump is prone to change his mind on a whim, this could all look very different in a week’s time.
April 4, 2025
Last night Channel 4 News dredged up a clip of Real Estate Developer Donald Trump being interviewed in 1987 and saying the same as he is saying now about the US being ripped off and in exactly the same words. That was when Reagan was still President and long before Clinton agreed to China joining the WTO with the special status of a developing country, to which advantageous status China still clings to the justifiable indignation of Trump.
https://www.iatp.org/sites/default/files/Full_Text_of_Clintons_Speech_on_China_Trade_Bi.htm
March 9, 2000 – “Full Text of Clinton’s Speech on China Trade Bill”
April 4, 2025
The total trade available in the world will not change. Markets will just shift. The free global market has not been beneficial to the UK or to the US.
We need less tat but better, more expensive product.
April 5, 2025
A thinly veiled comment on Chinese goods?
April 5, 2025
Russians are complaining of the inferior quality of Chinese products. They have more of those now because Russia is the most sanctioned country ever.
They are still winning the war though.
April 4, 2025
PP is correct in how the tariff levels are worked out.
Trump’s argument isn’t really with other countries, but large American corporations that have shut down US manufacture in favour of lower cost manufacture in the developing world, putting Americans out of jobs.
April 4, 2025
They went in search of low manufacturing costs in response to the prevailing US government policy of free trade and “the rules based order”. My criticism of US corporates is their use of share buy backs to boost eps returns artificially. A recent study found that share buybacks in the USA have totalled over $5 trillion since 2000, dwarfing all all other transactions and is estimated to have inflated US stock markets by c40%. That is cash that could have been returned as cash to shareholders, reinvested in R&D and capital investment; instead it was spent in inflating share prices. During the 2008/9 financial crisis the NASDAQ 100 price to sales ratio has risen from 1.0 to over 6.0, before the recent sell off. Trump`s complaints about the US hollowing out its manufacturing capacity have a foundation but I do not think his tariffs will give him the answer he wants.
April 4, 2025
Dave Andrew’s comment is a gem.
April 4, 2025
@Oldtimer92 – its a sledge hammer to crack a nut, brought about by endless talks about reciprocal arrangements that have been going on for years certainly since the last time Trump was POTUS. Always kicked into the long grass in hope it would go away.
The EU has antagonised more than most with not just tariff but with artificial trade barriers. The WTO classify China as a 3rd World Country and has to protect itself from foreign trade while being given unfettered access to World markets.
There can be reasons to protect markets, but everything done should be reciprocal and not false(probably impossible to achieve). The UK and the EU charge the US 400% more in tariffs on vehicle imports than in the other direction. It should be consumer choice, not State sponsored protection.
April 4, 2025
+1
April 4, 2025
However you need to understand that there are means other than tariffs, by which countries keep you out of their markets. We should know having been kicked around by the EU whilst subjugated to the organisation.
If the trade imbalance – for instance the one between China and the USA is so badly skewed but not by tariffs, how do you put that right?
I think Trumps formula is pretty fair.
April 4, 2025
@Lynn Atkinson +1
And as we see people just don’t get, Globalist Socialism(WEF) is not about Democracies working together but democracies being held back. The benefit of the few for the persecution of the many.
The World needs Trump, it needs disrupting so that the undemocratic, unaccountable mandarines the bureaucracy produces can get put back in their boxes. Its the person in the mirror that gets things done suppressing them hurts everyone.
April 4, 2025
Lynn, If you think DJT’s approach is fair, how do you justify the 0.5 factor he put on the final result of his sophisticated calculation?
April 4, 2025
You are concentrating your thoughts on the calculation formula and the percentage level hefner.
I think the President simply wants to set a level which provokes a reaction.
Perhaps now, those nations who currently enjoy a low level of tariff on their imports into USA whilst setting higher level tariffs on imports into their countries from USA will have to alter that position.
April 4, 2025
By “kicked around” I think you mean “participated in the biggest and best free trade bloc the world’s ever seen”. What did the EU ever do for us, except guarantee us a 5% uptick in GDP year in, year out
Reply 1 We never hit 5% growth in EU. 2. It is a highly over regulated Customs Union, not a free trade area.
April 4, 2025
According to Michel Barnier in 2012 the EU Single Market gave the EU member states a one-off uptick of about 2% in their collective GDP. To be perfectly clear that this was a one-off not a recurrent uptick, he reported that their collective GDP was about 2% higher than it would have been if the Single Market had not been created. That was the average across the member states, but the gain was below average for the UK at about 1% of GDP. As for the Customs Union, we get some idea of its value to the UK from the EU assessment that Boris Johnson’s zero tariff zero quota deal was worth about 0.75% of GDP to us, while by the same analysis they claimed we had sacrificed about 2% of GDP by no longer being in the Single Market. That matched Michel Barnier’s number, but once again it is probably an overestimate.
April 4, 2025
I suggest you watch and listen to Paul Rand’s speech on the subject here:
https://youtu.be/LeZdMCTIckQ?si=BEoa9JXv5cXiOmbZ
April 4, 2025
Rand Paul I believe you mean. He is not a political economist or even a businessman. Why do you think China should have ‘developing nation’ status with a protected home market and free access to our markets?
April 5, 2025
the answer being ensure you can make what is wanted and not importing!
Short term cheap (and nasty?) – long term expensive.
April 4, 2025
So, when supposedly representing and defending the interests of the UK, Sunak couldn’t even stand up to Senile Joe. What a pathetic squirt he was.
Two-Tier is desperate to snuggle up even closer to the sclerotic EU, whose economy is going to be hammered by Trump’s perfectly reasonable tariffs. He can’t do that AND negotiate a decent, comprehensive trade treaty with Trump. He will have to choose. I expect him to make the wrong choice.
Just as he will over the Chagos lunacy.
April 4, 2025
This is the end of the EU.
Trump vying with Putin for the Man of the Century title.
April 5, 2025
Will they share the Nobel Peace Prize?
April 4, 2025
Thank you for the correction. My recollection of precisely how the calculation was made was faulty.
April 4, 2025
I see no advantage at all in allowing American chlorinated chicken or American hormone and antibiotic fed beef into our domestic market. The reason American chicken is chlorinated is because the cruel conditions under which it is produced means that it’s contaminated with antibiotic-resistant Salmonella and E coli. They spray it with chorine in an attempt to clean these dangerous bacteria off.
This will further reduce our food security and damage our farmers. Trump’s imposition of global tariffs have caused a huge market sell-off, market participants know that the tariffs will cause inflation and a global recession. Nobody will benefit from Trumps tariffs, let alone the American people
April 4, 2025
… and chlorinated UK water in our taps? chlorinated washed salad leaves on UK supermarket shelves?
UK food security and damage to our farmers is what UK Governments do without much encouragement.
April 4, 2025
Ever considered the concentration of chlorine in drinking water vs its concentration in poultry washing water? 0.5 mgCl2/l for drinking water vs.118-177ml of NaClO per litre of PWW. Given the 10-12% chlorine content of NaClO that’s (from what I can understand) a dose around 20 times higher in poultry washing water.
Figures from various sources: dwi.gov.uk (‘Drinking Water Inspectorate: Chlorine’), thepoultrysite.com (01/04/2009, 25/09/2019), nationalchickencouncil.org (30/05/2013)
Reply What nonsense. You do not drink the washing water, it is washed off and dries.
April 5, 2025
All our meat, poultry, and fish used to be chlorine washed. You could smell it from outside the shops. Our bags of salad and some veg still are. This hysteria is an EU non tariff barrier.
April 4, 2025
+1. Not to mention Organo Phosphates run down the spines of our cattle and sheep on EU Orders. How cruel can you get? It’s a nerve agent, it causes them to lose control of their legs. Then we eat it! Wonder why orir kids are so ill?
April 4, 2025
If you object to the conditions under which some chickens are kept in the US then say that you will accept chicken from the US provided that the supplier can show that the birds were being treated humanely. Don’t try to dupe people into believing that US chicken meat is unsafe to eat because the carcasses are treated with disinfectant.
April 5, 2025
I will just add here that the fact that US poultry producers routinely treat chicken carcasses with disinfectant does not necessarily imply that animal health standards are lower in the US, it could equally well be that human health standards are higher. In which case the US would have grounds to exclude chicken meat from EU/UK producers because they do NOT routinely wash their chicken carcasses with disinfectant. This could cut both ways.
April 4, 2025
Was it Buffet who said “If you like Hamburgers, do you want the price of minced beef to go up or down?”
If you are not selling SG then there’s no need to panic (just yet) 🙂
April 4, 2025
I’ve been to America and while I was there I ate chicken ! Very bold of me I know but luckily I survived.
April 4, 2025
Indeed Roy
If hefner has proof that USA chickens have adversely affected the health over 300 million USA citizens over many decades then he should tell us.
April 4, 2025
Think of the market the meat eating USA presents for our beef, lamb, pork, fish, chicken, geese, ….
April 4, 2025
Also last night on Channel 4 News they had Labour MP Liam Byrne probably over-estimating the negative impact of Trump’s tariffs on our economy as maybe a one-off loss of 0.6% of GDP, and adding that this loss would be about half of the economic growth that had been expected for this year. He could have usefully enlarged on that by explaining that our trend growth rate is already less than half of what it was for six decades before 2008 when Labour was previously in power:
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2025/04/02/tariff-day/#comment-1506975
“Just a reminder that whatever happens with Trump’s tariffs the negative impact on the UK economy will be far smaller than the cumulative lost growth since 2008 due to the reduced trend growth rate for the past 16 years … ”
Liam Byrne is the one who left a note on his desk telling his successor “I’m afraid there is no money.”:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/09/liam-byrne-apology-letter-there-is-no-money-labour-general-election
April 4, 2025
Later today, the same man as Chairman of the Commons Business and Trade Committee:
https://committees.parliament.uk/committee/365/business-and-trade-committee/news/206297/20-ways-to-fix-brexits-growth-hit-btc-report
“20 ways to fix Brexit’s growth hit: BTC report”
“These challenges, that will define this Parliament, will be easier to wrangle if we draw closer to Europe. But our relationship with the EU today is stuck in yesterday’s logic. Mere tinkering will not do, but making the leap to re-join the Customs Union or Single Market risks re-opening old wounds and imperiling the unity and political stability secured at the last election. We must find a bold but pragmatic new way forward.”
In reality all their proposals added together would have no more than a marginal economic effect, worth maybe a one-off 1% or 2% of GDP, and instead they should be concentrating on what went wrong under the previous Labour government which has so far cost us ten or twenty times as much. Or has he forgotten about that?
April 4, 2025
It’s quite clear to me that all of Labour’s problems with flat (soon to be negative) growth have been caused by a lethal combination of the Tories £22B Black Hole, the Ukranian Conflict (need to rearm) and now Trumps Tarifs. If not for them, we would be basking in historic levels of GDP growth and flaunting our net-zero achievements to the World. All this wonderful economic & eco upside ruined by events outisde of Labour’s control!
Poor Rachel! However, she should look on the bright side. In the (highly unlikely) event that her plans hadn’t completely worked out, these (completely unforseen) global events would have been a really great excuse as to why…
It’s a great pity, because now we’ll never know (for sure) will we? 🙂
April 4, 2025
But she knows – in fact she is ‘absolutely clear’ on the subject 🤭
April 4, 2025
Sir John
I 100% agree with your thoughts.
However, I don’t believe that TwoTierKier, his Government or even Parliament for that matter would do what is right for the UK or its people. They are more interested in Political Terrorism and handing the Country to external unelected unaccountable control. They see it as personal salvation and their next high rewarding job, sort of ‘s.. the people the electorate’ I am in this for me.
Think about it what has come out of Parliament this Century has not been in support of the UK, but in support of ‘Me’
April 4, 2025
Good to see Jeremy hunt coming out for the Singapore-on-Thames model. Too bad he spent his time in govt as chancellor doing pretty much the opposite. We’d still be in power and would have avoided this Labour fiasco if he and others had got it earlier.
April 4, 2025
This is time to play the long game. Get a trade deal if it is favourable or at least balanced but live with imbalanced tariffs if it is not. President Trump will not be ascendent for more than two years so the Labour administration must not sell out for sort term gain.
There is nothing intrinsically wrong with tariffs which equalise production costs. The same worthies damming USA for imposing tariffs would squeal about China’s low cost environmental damage and sweat shops.
Choose a side people.
April 4, 2025
Exactly I am all in favour of free and fair unrigged customer choice it a democracy where you vote every time you buy rather than for candidates every five years who rarely even try to do as they promised. Can we have this unrigged choice in energy, schools, universities, transport, healthcare, housing, cars, heating systems…
April 4, 2025
First ascertain what existing tariffs, and other obstacles disadvanrage US exports to the UK and therefore understandably upset Donald Trump. Then, by consulting with UK exporters, discover what impediments there are against UK goods entering the USA. Then talk with the aim of removing all problem areas.
Follow this with free trade talks to cover all other areas between the UK and USA. However in parallel conduct free trade talks across our Commonwealth who must not be forgotten in any rush to do a deal with Trump.
All goods at the retail level to be identified with highly visible printed national flags so the customers can indulge their choices. At the end of the day the end customer is paramount so all should learn to live with it.
April 5, 2025
agricola
Simple, logical, and sensible.
Thus It will never happen !.
April 4, 2025
It would be a first if this Government followed what is obviously the sensible course that you suggest, but there do appear to be some signs that at least they are not going to rush into immediate and ill conceived retaliation, which is what is coming from many other places, including the EU. All Mr Trump has done is put himself into a much better negotiating position with those who have the sense to talk to him.
April 4, 2025
Just for a moment let’s run a fantasy here – Just imagine it was a real Thatcher heir that was in power – They would not just pursue all the good suggestions from our host, but it wouldn’t be long before a zero tariff agreement had been negotiated or at least something pretty close.
Starmer is likely to ignore this opportunity to improve US relations and get a better trade deal. That is because of who he is and what he is. Having made it an open secret that he wants us back under EU control, he will never give too much away to Trump for what he would see as a short term gain, despite the logic of doing so.
Starmer was never going to boom the UK with his policies of giving away our resources and tax money to any body that asks for it, so he will certainly not be too interested in pleasing Trump who has all too often been spot on with his criticisms.
April 4, 2025
That zero tariffs Deal would be a life-saver and Trump is prepared to sue our lives by agreeing.
What on earth is the problem?
April 4, 2025
Trump also sees the imposition of VAT as another tariff, separate from the Customs one. Even though it applies to goods, worldwide, he sees it as another obstacle to US goods. It will be an uphill battle to get a free trade deal whilst we have this iniquitous tax. Our government will never get rid of it because it produces north of a hundred billion a year to waste.
April 4, 2025
They are looking down the barrel of a gun! Bullies can be made to do all sorts of things, th€y have no actual principles you know, they can easily change sides and be just as comfortable.
April 5, 2025
graham 1946
But the Americans also have a State tax, which is variable in each State .
April 5, 2025
and also Sales tax, varies by State and even City.
April 5, 2025
VAT is the commission that government claims on just about every commercial transaction that occurs in the UK. They in no way earn it and proceed to squander it on senseless tapecutting glory projects,while starving essential services of appropriate finance. The essential services carry each their own set of scribes to ensure further wasteful expenditure. Such is the UK today . Trump is a long overdue wakeup call.
April 5, 2025
They will never get rid of it while the EU has possession and control of N Ireland.
April 4, 2025
Trump and his team have not judged anything on “tariffs, bans, regulations and taxes imposed”. It’s purely based on the calculated trade deficit (if one exists) in goods alone. The UK’s “minimum” rate is purely down to the USA calculating that they a small trade surplus with the UK.
Trade surpluses from services (e.g. the advertising revenues received by companies like X and Facebook) are not included in the calculations.
April 4, 2025
‘We should let in US beef and chicken with suitable labels and let consumers decide.’ Indeed. I wouldn’t hesitate to eat beef or chicken in America. Put it on the supermarket shelves here? I’ll choose British – for as long as we still have farms.
April 4, 2025
@Sea_Warrior – … let consumers decide. That is for free trading democracies.
April 4, 2025
+1. But I would choose USA beef and chicken and wine over French!
April 5, 2025
I feel the same for everything.
April 4, 2025
Agreed.
April 5, 2025
But food isn’t just available in supermarkets. How would this work everywhere else food is served? Restaurants, take aways, sandwich shops, pubs, petrol stations etc.
To give consumers choice, there would have to be tracking throughout the entire food supply and processing chain. That’s a lot of additional red tape (and cost) which will, as always, be passed on to us as consumers.
April 4, 2025
‘We should let in US beef and chicken with suitable labels and let consumers decide.’
We also need impartial information regarding animal welfare and other food safety standards compared to UK to enable consumers to make an informed decision. The normal way to do this for any product, not just food, is via trustworthy accreditations and certifications, however I suspect Trump will view those as a barrier to trade, I even wonder if he would regard US beef and chicken with a label that it comes from US as a barrier to trade.
Then there are all sorts of places (food outlets) or products where the beef or chicken has been processed, I suppose unless it is explicitly labelled ‘not containing US beef / chicken’ very hard for consumers to make an informed choice
I’m not against US food, just need a proper transparent level playing field to be sure we don’t apply (even more) standards to our home production than we do to imports
Reply We can test and check and publish independent findings on the food if we wish. Supermarkets will obviously check out any new US product thoroughly as they have all the ones they sell.
April 4, 2025
We should take animal husbandry into account. If we did we would NOT import bacon from Denmark!
April 4, 2025
This should be good enough, and maybe even too strict:
https://www.americanhumane.org/what-we-do/certify-humane-treatment/farms/farm-standards/
“The American Humane Certified™ Animal Welfare Standards are species-specific and grounded on solid scientific research. The standards were created with input from renowned animal science experts and veterinarians and are frequently reviewed by our Scientific Advisory Committee to reflect current research, technological advances and humane handling methods.
Our Animal Welfare Standards are based upon the guiding principles of the Five Freedoms of Animal Welfare. With rigorous, science-based standards covering everything from adequate space to air and water quality, heating, lighting, shade and the animals’ ability to engage in natural behaviors. American Humane Certified producers are audited for their compliance to the standards. Our audit tools, full standards and supplemental templates are fully transparent and can be downloaded below.”
April 4, 2025
Some really silly comments here:
https://conservativehome.com/2025/04/04/kemis-chlorinated-chicken-moral-panic-or-serious-animal-welfare-issue/
I have come to mistrust anything that the NFU says.
April 4, 2025
A remark yesterday by a Labour spokesperson sums things up. Trumps tariffs will aid the UK consumer and make things cheaper here for them. As China will look for alternative markets for their goods.
No mention that due to high government taxation, high government inflated energy prices, the government off shoring of UK industry mainly to China – has left many without money or a job. There is now less money left for the consumer in the first place….
April 4, 2025
Agreed, Sir John.
April 4, 2025
Last UK blast furnace ‘days from closure’ as Chinese owners cut off essential supply’s …..they have the power to cripple a great many of our industries & services; our politicians need to wake-up
April 4, 2025
We have a few government departments with the words ‘security’ in their title …..and completely pointless if china decides to pull the plug
April 5, 2025
On Chinese departure, the plant and site should be available for next to nothing. All it needs for commercial viability is cheap power. Give it that and it is back producing virgin steel.
April 4, 2025
The Reform Party here in the UK is on the way to being greatly undermined by its association with Trump and right-wing politics in general. 4 more years of Trump could lead – sadly – to socialists / liberals sweeping into power all over the place and for years to come.
April 4, 2025
Farage was NOT invited to Trump’s inauguration. Musk has expressed his opinion of him publicly. What ‘association’?
Reform is in trouble because Farage has disbanded 4 newly formed constituency associations (to my knowledge), established by massively hard works at at the cost of the locals.
See the problem for what it is.
April 4, 2025
Trump / USA already already losing stock market war against China. As China’s stocks fall just 0.5% compared to USA drop of 5%. And this is just the beginning.
April 4, 2025
China can’t hurt the USA no matter what tariffs it imposes, because it imports almost nothing from the USA. 100% of nothing is still nothing.
China has suffered a body-blow from Trump.
April 5, 2025
OK good point
April 5, 2025
HOWEVER …
1) China still imports 1/3 from USA of what the USA imports from China. That is still something, bearing in mind, the USA will also be hit from tariffs now from Japan, South Korea and EU (if they they slap on tariffs on the USA – which I expect they will). So overall, the USA could be hit with equal or greater tariffs overall.
2) These tariffs are going to affect many consumers in the USA who want to buy Chinese stuff (and the effect of this on votes).
3) Companies from China, Japan, South Korea and EU will be more reluctant to invest in the USA with President Trump unable to give them a guarantees of economic stability which they want / need if you’re going to plan ahead.
I get what President Trump wants to achieve. That’s not hard. But it’s far harder than he thinks. And he’s just going to weaken the US economy long-term. That will be his legacy. One of his legacies. Allowing China to become the largest economy in the world sooner than preciously predicted.
April 5, 2025
The idiocy of allowing the world’s Manufacturing superpower to benefit from 3rd world status and protect its markets while flooding our markets with their ‘stuff’ is what Trump is addressing. I’m horrified to read that 90% of WHSmith stock is from China!
BRICS is a big problem. Countries change status all the time. You are not ‘an emerging market’ once you have emerged. Perhaps we should give unfair advantage to ‘previously-emerging markets’ (South Africa allows advantage to ‘previously-disadvantaged-people’ I.e rich blacks). If we did that we could all qualify and then we would be back to free, competitive trade.
April 4, 2025
Here we see again the unreasonable disdain that some still have for the EU and substitute it with an overzealous aspiration for communion with Trumps America – well good luck with that if you think Trump is your Messiah – right now he’s on the golf course while the stock market is going through the floor – nuts comes to mind
Reply Some of us want to live in a self governing country with confidence to pursue our own national interest . I have no wish to be a state of the EU or the USA
April 4, 2025
The way to approach Trumps US for an agreement is with courage and conviction – we have to know beforehand our bottom line and stick to it – if we go into talks dithering with a suck it and see approach then we will be handed a take it or leave it answer.
April 5, 2025
Well said. And this comes down to, at a very basic level, Trump hating the behaviour in people that is rude / aggressive, on one hand, or wimps / people-pleasers on the other.
In fact, NO-ONE likes aggressive behaviour on one hand or wimpy behaviour on other. We all respect people who are strong but respectful. And the same for Trump.
April 4, 2025
Best thing to do now is take some time out – the longer the tariff war goes on the more chance that desperation will creep in in the Trump camp.
Things are going to get very rough soon in America so the longer we wait without appearing to wait and spin this out the better for negotiation outcome.
April 5, 2025
Well I’m investing. I’m just adding my penny-worth to the thousands of billions pouring into the USA. Don’t think Trump is going to be desperate anytime soon.
April 5, 2025
The UK MUST impose same tariffs as U.S. on China.
The UK is at risk of becoming the China dumping ground for low quality, potentially dangerous and unfairly subsidised goods, that were originally set to go to the U.S.
The goods are going to destroy the UK economy like Chinese EVs and Hybrid cars which will be dumped into the UK and will put a final death knell in the UK car industry destroying jobs :-/
April 5, 2025
Your diagnosis of problem is correct but your solution is frankly absurd. It’s like you and Donald Trump are reducing economics to Monopoly board game at Christmas.
April 5, 2025
Not many alternatives unless we are happy to let a big chunk of the UK economy and related jobs to be lost 🙁 Ideally every economy should have a balance between ‘service’ and ‘manufacturing’. Imposing tariffs of China would need to be supplemented with investment in UK manufacturing. The fact that we have practically lost all control over Steel production is just one area where the UK has not been paying attention to manufacturing. The UK doesn’t need to produce all we need but having some capability in critical areas means skills, knowledge and research are not offshored to the point where we are economically weak.
April 5, 2025
Why aren’t there any decent arguments for or against tariffs in the media? The arguments are over binary. When there are benefits to both tariffs and the opposite?
Tariffs certainly helped US’s economic rise but then led to the Great Depression (and so indirectly of WW2).
What’s the point of tariffs where your own country is wholly competitive in a particular sphere. It makes more economic sense – there – to import. To over-focus on tariffs here is like flogging a dead horse.
Don’t forget also, the culture, also, during America’s economic rise where so many of the people were immigrants or children of and had this drive to do well in the new world. But the USA is no longer the New World. So many Americans have been living there for generations. And would be considered decadent compared to how hard their forefathers worked. Tarrifs aren’t going to get rid of decadence. And slapping tariffs everywhere (instead of in smart, sophisticated ways) is more like the tariffs of the 1930’s that led to the Great Depression.
Reply Tariffs are an extra tax, partly hitting consumers in the importing country and partly hitting producers in the exporting country. I have always supported multilateral reductions of tariffs. The main cause of the 1930 s slump was a huge monetary and fiscal squeeze, a collapse of money and credit.
April 5, 2025
‘What’s the point of tariffs where your own country is wholly competitive in a particular sphere. It makes more economic sense – there – to import. To over-focus on tariffs here is like flogging a dead horse.’
– where your country is wholly UNCOMPETITIVE in a particular field.
Also, another point, compared to the tariffs of the 1800s, the world is far more complicated and integrated in how it trades and how economies work.
April 5, 2025
Thank you. But you’re making a nuanced and intelligent argument (albeit briefly here). Your attitude is quite different to that of President Trump who just seems to be taunting / goading people over tariffs with no real explanation what he is up to. That’s just bad for business investors amongst others.
April 5, 2025
Apologies to Sir John (again) about some of my rants about President Trump (and tariffs).
I’ve calmed down now. And been reading about tariffs and see there are benefits to them I didn’t (fully) realise.
Although I still hold (but not in such an over-the-top way) that President Trump’s approach overall is flawed (but there are some important and beneficial things about tariffs but done in the right way).
April 5, 2025
Who can blame you for your rants? The deceit and dishonesty with which this matter has been reported has been way over the top of what is normal for the MSM. Where have you seen that the EU has been charging the US 25% on its cars? Charging the UK 25% on its own steel going to its own N Ireland? Where have you seen that wholly innocent victim Canada charges the US 29% on dairy and 163% on eggs? Where are the revelations and explanations of all those non tariff barriers put up by the EU and China? We are being led to believe Trump woke up one morning and decided to clobber every one else just for the hell of it. As it is the EU is still getting away with double the rate.
April 5, 2025
Trumps tariffs differential between the U.K. and The EU make it more difficult for the globalists to take the U.K. back into the EU.
He is achieving political objectives too. He’s been thinking about this for 50 years. Assume he has got the hang of it.
April 5, 2025
What if Trump is right and an economic reset is long overdue? The US, UK and other major EU economies have become stagnant, leaving China, India, Taiwan, Japan and other Far East economies take control of critical technologies and resources and are driving them to gradually hollow out western economies? For example China’s state funding EVs to destroy competing technologies and manufacturers 🤔
April 6, 2025
Strongly agreed with JR’s views with respect to UK/US trade and also on Chagos