One of my critics here complains I do not show charts or graphs when setting out economic arguments. I do use numbers from ONS/Treasury/Bank of England/ World Bank/IMF and check the sources carefully. I do collaborate with Facts4eu.org who produce excellent charts which I strongly recommend. Go on to their site to see the UK and EU in great bar charts and graphs. Here is an example reproduced from them showing how the UK economy has outperformed leading EU countries since the referendum.
The economy has grown by 14% in real terms since the Referendum
June 2016 – June 2026
October 9, 2026
The economy has grown by 14% in real terms since the Referendum
June 2016 – June 2026
Yes it as but you can bet your bottom dollar the liebour party will try to take credit for it, I very nearly watched most of the debates in Westminster about Brexit and it was always the same politicians who put up objections to us leaving the dreaded EU including the Speaker of the house, they did every dirty trick in the book to stop us leaving but we the people won so all these politicians who don’t want to live in a free growing economy go live in your beloved Europe bye bye you’ll not be missed
October 9, 2026
Brexit so far means one thing in economic terms and one thing only – new barriers to trade with the EU, our largest export market. Barriers to trade cost, they have no compensating benefit. Therefore whatever our GDP is now, it would be higher without Brexit. Basic trade economics
Reply We have a tariff free Free Trade deal with EU. Which new barriers are you saying our “ friends” in the EU have imposed and which exports have fallen? Declines in energy and petrochem sales are the result of our dear energy policy and bans on oil and gas, not the result of EU action.
October 9, 2026
Great reply, which proves – once again – that Brexiters have not the first clue how international trade works. I suggest you visit Dover and Calais and chat with truck drivers – tell them Brexit has not changed anything, you might get some informative if terse replies. Try also googling “non tariff barriers” (which are not covered at all by our deal with the EU)
Reply So you cannot name an export that has fallen through some new barrier
October 9, 2026
John in Kent
Yes paperwork has increased when exporting to the EU from the UK but that is all.
We have a family member who actually works within an import – export organisation.
It is the EU that has imposed most of these checks and regulations on us, not us on them.
Go to France on Holiday each year thought we would get held up with the new EU passport verification regulations on our recent trip last month, found out the new system has been scraped for the time being as unfit for purpose, as it was causing huge delays, hence the lorry drivers complaints and frustration.
Spoke with a UK passport officer who said they (the French) do not tell us anything, they are in a mess with the system.
It is the EU who are attempting to bring in more and more regulation.
All other Countries we trade with have not changed. !
October 9, 2026
Yes Alan, amazingly now that we have left the EU, the EU treats us as if we have left the EU. All the problems and costs you mention are the consequence of Brexit. Which was the UK’s choice, not the EU’s
October 9, 2026
JIK
Yes we chose to leave and as a consequence we are doing better than the big EU Countries, imagine what may happen if we ditched some of the regulations which are still holding us back.
Whilst we have our own Problems the EU is Slowly Turning Right due to theirs. !
October 9, 2026
1. Don’t you realise that there’s more to world trade than selling to the EU? We don’t manufacture the same products or have the same interests as other EU countries so why wouldn’t it be better to set our own tarrifs?
2. The EES scheme is an unmitigated EU disaster. Do you want to be part of a scheme which discourages tourists from everywhere in the world except the EU? Imagine the problems which US tourists alone would have had at LHR if we had been part of this crazy scheme. Although we would probably have jettisoned it anyway.
3. Most of the problems visited on us are the result of EU spitefulness-we could have had faster simpler trade with the EU if they had wanted it-they didn’t and are now begging us to come back. No thanks.
October 9, 2026
Yes, it was ‘John in Kent’ who claimed 6-8% drop in GDP since Brexit on October 5th post.
I take it these graphs you reference aren’t totally made up? Ah well, says John in Kent, but most most economists agree that we are 6-8% smaller than we would have been, which is bogus. Pure speculation. By the time that particular drum has been bashed for the umpteenth time it is quoted as fact!
October 9, 2026
John can speak for himself but I don’t think he or anyone else argues Brexit has caused a 6-8% drop in GDP. Economists agree GDP is 6-8% lower than it would be without Brexit – which is different
Reply No they cannot think that as there are plenty of official figures showing the contrary.m
October 9, 2026
Well our friend in the anti-democratic EU could behave even less cooperatively if we were in the EU with even more damaging red tape, over regulation, rip off energy and vast fees charged too. With nothing the UK government could do about it. All this red tape applying to everything happening in the UK & not just the small % for EU export.
October 9, 2026
Andrew Bailey has warned that reckless tax and spending plans could trigger a repeat of the 2022 financial crisis caused by former Prime Minister Liz Truss. Well Labour are giving us reckless tax and spending in spades with anti growth policies in every direction.
Except this crisis was mainly caused not by Liz Truss but manufactured by either a Bank of England agenda or BoE incompetence. She was alas then removed by the Libdim/Sunak/Hunt wing of the The “Conservative” party.
Liz Truss has frequently and rightly criticized public and financial institutions—pointing to the influence of groups like the Fabian Society and figures like Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey—as part of a perceived “deep state” or institutional resistance that she claims undermined her 2022 mini-budget and premiership. Bailey was/is a disaster at the FCA and a disaster at the BoE after that other green crap disaster Carney appointed by the disaster Osborne.
October 9, 2026
I quite like Kemi but her attack on Suella were rather misjudged. My wife has two Italian parents, duel passports and by chance she was born in Scotland then brought up in England and Italy (mainly England). But had she been brought up in Italy from 0-16 then moved to England I have no doubt at all she would have considered herself far more Italian than English.
Kemi it seems considers herself more British than Nigerian though it seems though she only came to the UK at age 16 – fine who cares how she chooses to identify and she does seem quite British. But if Suella considers herself British Asian that is surely perfectly fine too. Kemi surely should not have attacked her in a rather pathetic way. Her unpleasant attacks on Reform will not help I suspect help the party win back the many Tories who have left after the 14 years rather the reverse.
October 9, 2026
Your wife is Italian, Kemi is Nigerian.
Ethnicity is not self-identifying any more and is sex.
October 10, 2026
Well we are all a mix of genes, nurture, choices we make and life experiences. Plus often religious indoctrinations of young vulnerable minds. Not that long back we were nearly all in Africa. THE MAIN exodus of modern humans from Africa was only about 60,000 years back.
October 10, 2026
Not quite the same as the Sex/Gender genetic differences.
October 9, 2026
To reply:- exactly.
Imagine the growth if we had had a real Brexit, not suffered from May’s net zero rip off lunacy, had had only brought in limited, quality & skilled immigration, has not had “broken compass” red tape spewing Labour to destroy confidence, had halved the size of the largely parasitic state sector and had not borrowed & wasted (worse than wasted) about 1.6 trillion on mad energy policies and net harm Covid “vaccines” and net harm Covid lockdowns. Also had not abolished the non dom status or put VAT on school fees. If we had had a Government that inspired confidence.
October 9, 2026
I agree with your reply, John. But the experience of individuals and micro traders is increased non-tariff barriers on small packages. Personal parcels to EU countries result in payments being requested from recipients which may be local VAT which was not levied before. Carrier charges have also increased.
Reply Imposing VAT would have applied if we were still in EU. Vat is an EU invented tax.
October 9, 2026
You are right JayCee. Brexit’s non tariff barriers are a MASSIVE hit for small traders. I’m astonished JR doesn’t even know what they are!
Reply I am well aware of small packets issues which are not a Brexit matter.
October 9, 2026
The biggest barrier to trade we see is government legislation and punitive tax. Compared to that, the added inconvenience of trading with the EU from outside is a mere detail.
The forecast that said the UK would lose 4% of GDP by leaving the EU was just made up numbers. Taking things as they are today, why would the UK be performing so much better than other EU countries had we stayed in?
Reply The forecast was 0.25% less growth each year for 15 years, not for a fall of 4%
October 9, 2026
Sir John….you keep spoiling a seemingly good story with the truth. Keep it up!
October 9, 2026
JiK:
What’s the big deal about trading with the EU when we had before Brexit, and still have, a £100bn/YEAR trading DEFICIT with the EU? Wouldn’t it be better to find other markets elsewhere, especially as the EU is on an industrial decline as result of their own Net Zero policies? Perhaps more trade with, for instance, India, who intend to industrialise and are not following the de-industrialising Green agenda:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2026/10/06/india-rejects-un-climate-politics-in-favor-of-industrialization/?utm_source=noptin&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=New%20Post%20Notification%20Claude%20-%20India%20Rejects%20UN%20Climate%20Politics%20in%20Favor%20of%20Industrialization
October 9, 2026
More guff in the right-wing press this week alleging “excessive” windfarm curtailment
To eliminate wind power curtailment caused by transmission bottlenecks across the Scotland-England border, the UK is currently investing in ‘The Great Grid Upgrade.’ Managed by NESO and National Grid, this historic overhaul combines major engineering, market, and regulatory initiatives to safely deliver remote renewable energy down to high-demand southern urban centres and industrial centres in the midlands
The physical strategy hinges on building subsea High-Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) ‘superhighways,’ notably the Eastern Green Links 1–4, which completely bypass onshore bottlenecks by moving juice down the east coast. Onshore, SSEN Transmission is deploying a comprehensive £29 billion investment program to modernise regional substations and construct high-capacity HVDC overhead pylon lines across England and Scotland. This will eliminate transmission losses.
National Grid launched the £9 billion Great Grid Partnership alongside seven major engineering firms to secure vital supply chains. Concurrently, the government is reviewing structural market reforms, including regional zonal pricing, to financially incentivise heavy industries to relocate closer to wind generation sources. However, rapid network deployment faces major friction; the National Audit Office warns that supply chain shortages and severe planning delays directly caused by Reform exploiting the NIMBY faction have left only 16 of the 80 critical transmission projects completed. This is “Tricky Dicky” Tice in action.
Total renewable curtailment across the UK currently exceeds less than 10 TWh annually out of total UK electricity production of about 293.6 TWh. This wasted energy represents approximately ~3.4% of total UK electricity production across all power sources combined, highlighting the urgent economic and environmental necessity of rapidly completing these major infrastructure upgrades. It’s about £15/pa on your average £2000 energy bill, or roughly 4p a day
Reply Glad you recognise huge cost of trying to put in enough grid to handle unreliable dear renewables. Also you see the public do not want pylons everywhere.Dogma before democracy is your approach.
October 9, 2026
SG. And after £billions are spent on grid upgrades, when the wind doesn’t blow and the sun doesn’t shine they will be redundant.
October 9, 2026
Plus we will need vast gas back up for these periods. In winter when we need most of the electricity there is little or no solar. This very expensive grid and this back then wasted for much of the year when demand is much lower )very much lower if we all are forced to switch to heat pumps).
October 9, 2026
The grid improvements needed are vast. Moving away from a few generators hub and spoke grid to a net connecting grid connecting thousand of remote intermittent generators often at sea. Then if we switch to heat pump and electric heating we will get a huge extra winter electricity demand some cold day we may need 20x as much electricity as average plus back up for this as the wind may not be blowing and in winter very little solar. SO SUGGEST the grid cost might need to go up by about 180 times.
Had I still lived in Bloomsbury/Holborn I might had had to vote for fairly anti-Semitic Labour (I never have done) just to keep out very Anti-Semitic Greens. I see that ex-Green leader Caroline Lucas (an English Grad with zero grasp of science) has actually said something sensible (for once) about this new and vile anti-Semitic “Green” Party.
Kemi did save her deposit but then lots of Tories, LibDims etc. perhaps felt they had to vote Labour to keep the even worse and vile “Greens” and Zak out.
October 9, 2026
Neither Green nor Labour appealed.
Polanski has said nothing I object to on Israel.
Lobbies are trying the old ‘anti-semitism’ smear again. It does not work so well nowadays.
Labour toady John Mann was appointed an anti semitism ‘Tsar’ and managed to get Ken Livingstone expelled to pay for his sinecure and seat in the House of Lords. Starmer did similar to Corbyn on the sly in order to become Prime Minister.
October 9, 2026
Why try to put blame on Richard Trice, he is not in Government or is responsible for any delays or decisions..
All the problems/delays have been caused by Government policies, both Labour and Conservative, due to lack of foresight, planning, building and development.
Develop renewables by all means, but make sure you can utilise what is produced efficiently as part of a mix, and certainly do not pay them NOT to produce.
October 9, 2026
SG:
You can build all the expensive wind turbines, solar panels, steel pylons, power cabling, concrete bases and kit supplied by coal powered China, (who BTW also use slave labour and ignore any environmental impacts), you like but you’re still going to need a second, gas generated supply of electricity when the wind doesn’t blow and the sun doesn’t shine (every night BTW) unless you accept the Left’s plan for the country to run only on chaotically intermittent supplies of electricity “to save the planet”. There is no climate crisis and the Left would not have invented it if its “solution”, Net Zero, was not sabotaging our energy and industry and hence our economy and national security. Noted that you do not believe in democracy when Reform have been elected with a mandate to stop the erection of pylons in their constituency through legal means.
October 9, 2026
We could of course turn off all electrical and gas appliances at dusk, go to bed, and get up at dawn hoping it might be windy and sunny.
October 9, 2026
Is that like the old political policy of ‘jam tomorrow’ …maybe
October 9, 2026
Free and fair competition between “renewables” and other energy. With no subsidies and no market rigging. With renewables picking up the costs of backup and extra grid costs that they cause.
October 9, 2026
SG: “It’s [renewable electricity curtailment costs] about £15/pa on your average £2000 energy bill, or roughly 4p a day”
I don’t know if the curtailment figure you quote is correct but remember that NESO have already said that to solve this curtailment issue we will need a further £89 billion of grid upgrades by 2035 (£3200/household) , on top of the £80 billion needed by 2030 (£2900/household). The attempt to decarbonise our electricity is akin to a gambler making bigger and bigger bets to overcome his losses.
Not that decarbonisation is necessary as CO2 does not control the planet’s temperature. Water vapour is a far bigger greenhouse gas. It absorbs far more of the planet’s emitted IR radiation and is 10 to 100 times more prevalent in the atmosphere than CO2. It does all the warming necessary to make our planet hospitable. We need more CO2 in the atmosphere, not less, to promote plant growth and food production.
October 9, 2026
Simple question John.
Why are most of our Politicians not aware of this fact, or if they are, why do they tell us lies ?
Are they so wedded to the EU that they have to falsify statements/figures to try and get us back in ?
Reply Ask them. A lot of politicians believe untruths and fail to check out false facts on many topics, as this blog seeks to reveal. Some do so because they are intellectually lazy, some because they follow others, some because they want to assert their view at any cost.
October 9, 2026
As any good Progressive would say – Never let facts get in the way of our world view.
October 9, 2026
When it comes to the Rejoiners/didn’t want to leavers. No amount of facts will convince them we’re better off out. They mantain a rose tinted view of the EU. The view that was sold to them. The view that was a fallacy.
October 9, 2026
and those same people continue to live here, shame they didn’t go live somewhere else, we are overcrowded due to frantic immigrants who realise life is better here than in the EU. A reduction in the population due to Rejoiners leaving would be very welcome.
October 9, 2026
We left the EU on 31 January 2020 (hallelujah) so the comparison to 2016 is not the right time period.
The comparisons should be from 2021. I hope these show a similar result. I don’t recall the period 2016 to 2021 being a time of EU turmoil apart from the backend of the PIIGS debt issues.
October 9, 2026
Islamo communists “win” another election, the UK is doomed without urgent action
October 9, 2026
Ian, all part of the great reset. Starting with the Home Secretary and the leader of the opposition. Thankfully the rest of the country are waking up to the takeover. Jenrick has been reported for telling the truth. Gosport has opened a lot of eyes to the machinations of the Home Office and their British last policy.
October 9, 2026
Facts should always win arguments. However, “There’s none so blind as those who will not see”.
And they are the die-hard Remainers who still wish to hand OUR country over to a bunch of unelected and unaccountable foreigners all based in a foreign country.
But what was the National Referendum of 2016 for? It was for us, the British citizens, to decide our fate, yet these die-hard Remainers refused to accept the decision of the people, even though it was OUR democratic decision. I can only conclude that these people are anti-democratic and therefore belong to the EU.
Perhaps now, they will do the right thing, emigrate to an EU nation, become EU citizens, and find their peace there.
October 9, 2026
Conflating the last two Diary Blog. While in the EU the UK taxpayer had to finance under EU Diktats the removal of Land Rover defender production to Slovakia loosing UK jobs that haven’t been replaced..
Now Burnham is offering to give the money to the EU’s Defence Fund, in hope of closer ties and the hope that the EU will allow the UK to borrow it back
You couldn’t make it up!
October 9, 2026
Nice to see that fact displayed graphically – An image paints a thousand words.
That is a definitive image that should halt the supporters of Burnham, and the great man himself, from spilling their lies and deceit all over the place. It probably won’t, as it is their nature to waffle and avoid the facts. Still it’s worth making sure the msm have this.
Socialists rarely work with facts though – who needs them when you have dogma interlaced with wokism.
October 9, 2026
Never knew till today that we allow for the election of MPs that aren’t born in the UK ? There are so many conditions on becoming an MP, and I always believed that that was one
October 9, 2026
Additional information from a little google search – Between 50 & 100 MPs were not born in the UK, and an unknown number of Lords were not born in the UK (as they don’t collect that data)
October 9, 2026
It’s never been a consideration. Many British people are born abroad. We had an Empire and Dominions.
October 9, 2026
Convincing reasoning.
October 9, 2026
The UK’s largest impediment is its Parliament. Its members have entered that place with no other aim other than to secure that same position all cost come the next election. Generally, this is done with bribing people with their own money, money that if it was left in circulation would cause a thriving economy.
The statistician’s point to the fact 54% of the Nation receives more payments from the ‘Taxpayer’ than they them selves pay in. The top 10% of income tax payer pay over 60% of all income tax receipts. The top 50% pay 90% of all income tax. These are just figures the real fact is that for every £1 removed as tax that a £1 removed from the economy to allow there to be something to tax. It’s a vicious circle and the balance is crucial. But this UK Parliament through inexperience, poor education, ineptitude and out ideological terrorism just don’t get it. They by just appeasing ‘ego’ and self are destroying the nation and it people
October 9, 2026
You’re doing a great work in publicising these figures John. Many thanks.
October 9, 2026
+1
October 9, 2026
The UK Parliament in folklore is elected to serve their constituent and the country. We allow them to select a government with them making the commitment of holding those chosen to account. The ultimate aim is to have a body of people to keep us safe, secure, self-reliant and resilient.
Does any of that happen? Your candidates are chosen for you, so they are not serving you they are serving a gang boss, that’s for starters. Are the keeping you safe, secure, the country self-reliant and resilient?
You are however blessed, in that they order you to pay them money to keep them at a standard they desire so they are able to blackmail you with your money to ensure you vote for them. You have to ‘budget’ compromise, balance just to give them what they demand, but they won’t. The wont budget, balance, compromise they see a golden goose that will keep laying for them. Those you thought were there to serve you are missing they are working against you, they serve themselves – that’s not democracy
The perversions are endless, distorted and spun to suit ideology, not the Country or its People.
Parliament has a duty to keep us safe, that could mean defence. Defence the one area due to outside pressure has a budget figure defined. Something not entertained for the State and its Machinery – ‘pah phooey’ to budgeting anything other than spend, spend, spend.
Then as a simple illustration Defence a percentage of GDP, even that Parliament chooses to distort to make themselves personally feel good – defence is a cost not a percentage.
UK GDP in 2010 2.3%, defence spending 2.4%
UK GDP in 2025 1.3%, defence spending 2.2%
The UK Parliament is patting themselves on the back for a good job, they haven’t slipped much, that is to do with the quality of their education, and their common sense. The difference in spend is actually 50% less just in GDP terms and not a Rachael Reeves 0.2%.
It all comes back to having a thriving economy that is the leader, every £1 removed from the economy is another £1 that doesn’t get to generate income therefore tax. Socialism this century has destroyed the balance.
October 9, 2026
Agree with every single word
October 9, 2026
Why are ‘your candidates chosen for you”? Why do you allow that. It’s a new thing and as a result Parliament is degraded by compromised people the Whips can more easily control.
But it’s YOUR FAULT.
October 11, 2026
@Lynn Atkinson –
I personally like many people in the UK have been disenfranchised. Labour has just won the Holborn and St Pancras with only 1 in 5 of the electorate supporting them. That is similar to the last GE Labour achieved support from 1 in 5 of the nations electorate. In Holborn and St Pancras it could be reasoned that 60% of the electorate were disenfranchised they were left with no candidate to get behind.
The establishment one way or another are able to garner funds from the taxpayer then however it is spun it frees up money for campaigning. The local candidate on their own can’t compete with a skewed deck. Candidate for election should be chosen and funded exclusively from within the communities they wish to stand for. After all isn’t the theory that we elect a candidate to represent ‘us’ and the country in Parliament, not a Gang Boss and an ideology
All Ballot Papers should include ‘None of the Above’ as an option
October 9, 2026
“UK did not lose 4% of GDP from Brexit” – some of us believe that had we fully left on WTO terms had a Parliament that worked for the UK and its People instead of one wishing to remain as a local council ordered what to do the gains would have been greater.
October 9, 2026
Agree, we voted to leave and leave all its institutions, there shouldn’t have been a deal, we should have left on WTO terms
October 9, 2026
John
Excellent charts. Unfortunately, the mainstream media and this Government doesn’t want to mention that.
October 9, 2026
They are no longer in control of the flow of information.
October 9, 2026
If these figures are easily available, why do the media not promote them? What are the chances the BBC will publish those numbers? Why are the media so convinced we should go back into the failing EU?
Sadly, we have reached the point where so many people in influential positions don’t research or dig into the true facts; they just follow the crowd. That is why SG and John from Kent drift along in their dream worlds, thinking they know what they are talking about. More worrying is the blind faith our new PM and most Labour MPs have in rejoining the EU.
October 9, 2026
As someone who is a passionate Sovereigner (as opposed to Brexiter) who believes 100% in Sovereignty (when time is right i.e. the ends do not justify the means – and Boris and some of his mates were giving me bad vibes), I see no figures, in general (not just here) that condemn Brexit as a financial failure or that being part of the EU would benefit us greatly financially if we were still in.
So I think, therefore, it would be nuts to go back into the EU / Single Market. I think I speak for a lot of moderate Tories (and Labour).
October 9, 2026
If you believe in sovereignty for nation states then you are a Brexiteer.
October 10, 2026
I’m technically a Brexiteer now.
The problem with some Brexiteers though is that they can be bossy and dogmatic about their views, polarising others and causing division, and therefore undermining Brexit (and just adding to a certain pool of misery that exists in politics in this country – like in all countries in particular, the USA – politics there is now a nightmare. I don’t want that for our great country).
The exact same charge can be levelled at Remainers too. I have no time for Remainers who are bossy and dogmatic.
I want to see our country sovereign but also united – and happy (in the classical sense of the word – not in happy-clappy sense)!
Ed x
October 9, 2026
The media generally and the BBC in particular constantly distort the truth concerning growth since 2016. Politicians opposed to Brexit are given disproportionately more air time and proceed to trash our growth. These same politicians and their supporters within Labour, Lib Dems and regrettably some Conservatives have prevented our Country moving forward positively since 2016. This has now become seriously toxic under Burnham and his left leaning parliamentary party. Those supporting Brexit must ensure all the facts are fully available to the general public to ensure we never rejoin the pernicious and failing EU.
October 9, 2026
Votes for the HoC:18y/o.Irish resident citizen,Qualifying Commonwealth Citizen,qualifying”foreign” resident and
resident British national.
simplez?
October 9, 2026
The Irish are British. There are two British passports, U.K. and Irish.
The British nations must stick together if we are to save ourselves.
October 11, 2026
Yes. And now the French finance minister is imploring Britain to come back into the EU. I cannot think of a better argument for staying outside.