The UK government has rightly worried about deaths from CV 19. It has used these concerns along with worries over hospital capacity to treat seriously ill CV 19 patients to drive its anti pandemic lock down policies. The government has repeatedly said it wishes to be data driven. This requires consistent and accurate data over time to help inform policy decisions
I first took up issues of data adequacy with the government on April 11 th  2020. I reiterated and enlarged my concerns on this site on April 26th, May 22nd, November 7th and at other times. I asked how the Uk defined a death caused by Covid 19, how it handled deaths with Covid 19 where it was not the main cause of death, and what use it made of deaths attributed to or with CV 19 when there had been no test on a patient to establish they had the disease. We know from the public daily reporting that the UK has adopted a standard of notifying CV 19 linked to a death if the patient has had CV 19 during the 28 days prior to death whatever other health problems they also experienced.
Others have now taken this up. People have come forward to complain that their relatives did not think their family member died of CV 19 yet it appeared on the death certificate. Doctors have explained that in some cases mistakes were made, in some cases the death certificate correctly identified other causes of death but needed to cite the presence of CV 19 at some point during the last 28 days of life. These figures matter, as people make international comparisons without being able to adjust the figures for the differing criteria adopted to define a CV 19 death. If you are going to be data driven you need to understand what your data means, and understand any weaknesses or possible errors in its compilation.
Using the global published figures the UK comes out as below the countries with most cases per million people, but at the top of the lists of deaths in relation to case numbers. Assuming the high level of testing adopted in the UK has come up with a  realistic view of the total  number of cases, this leaves us with the need for an explanation of why alongside Belgium we have the relatively high death rate of 2.9% of all identified cases, compared to the USA at 1.79% and figures closer to 2% for many other advanced countries. It looks as if the UK has ascribed more deaths to CV 19 than comparable places . I do not want to  argue that our treatments have been less effective, given the huge efforts contributed by UK medical science and NHS staff to the task.
I suggest the government sets some data specialists onto the task of auditing these figures and adjusting where necessary. It does not seem fair to the NHS to leave the world with the impression we had a higher death rate from this disease given the many queries of death attribution we are now seeing. As many of the people who were recorded as dying of CV 19 were over 80, they belong to the generation that is likely to have other medical conditions that could have been the cause of death.
February 28, 2021
Covid deaths were considerably undercounted in spring wave last year (due to far lower testing rates) but are clearly now being hugely over counted. Excess deaths over the five year average are about half of the number being recorded as Covid. The real number of people who died âofâ Covid is probably more like (or even less than) this 50% figure. So far this year ONS has recorded about 52,000 deaths with a positive test within 28 days.
Lisa Nandy Shadow Foreign Secretary on Any Questions yesterday wants to vaccinate all teachers now. She was asked by Nadine Zahawe who would be pushed back in order to give the vaccine to a 25 year old teachers (who would be at virtually zero CV risk anyway).
Cleverly she replied that she would just push everyone else (many millions) back by one day. Sounds good but just as damaging and death causing and totally immoral if you do the simple maths.
So is she is she too innumerate to realise this? Or is she just a blatant & dishonest spin doctor?
February 28, 2021
LL, I think you will find they were worse and Hancock had them revised downwards! The figures are to mask and hide Fake Tory govt handling of the worst public health policy failing in history.
Cast your mind back to 23/01/2020 Hancock in parliament telling the nation the NHS was prepared etc etc. Nor could the Chinese virus reach these shores! Nor would allowing 30-40 million people into the country from virus hotspots make any significant difference! Despite severe warnings from countries close to China who secured their borders and have a much better record than the UK, worse performing in health and economically. Whitty was not any better he claimed the NHS was prepared!
Johnson being a follower did what the WHO told him! That organisation should be closed down it failed the world! Johnson gave them hundreds of millions more of taxpayers money! When will this waste and spend govt. to realise it is our money not theirs? As Thatcher said socialists, AKA current govt, always run out of other peopleâs money! At least the fake Tory donors and cronies got rich out of it!
February 28, 2021
+1
February 28, 2021
We’ll never know accurate numbers. However, excess deaths is a good proxy for 2020.
Using the UK numbers below (and establishing 0.92% as a standard death rate), I estimate excess deaths for 2020 are 62,000 and it seems to me reasonable to ascribe these to Covid19. Going forward into 2021, however, we are on shakier ground because the negative impact of lockdown/panic etc on non-Covid19 deaths (think late detection screening for cancer, loneliness etc) will start to bleed into numbers.
2010 561666 62759500 0.89%
2011 552232 63285100 0.87%
2012 569024 63705000 0.89%
2013 576458 64105700 0.90%
2014 570341 64596800 0.88%
2015 602782 65110000 0.93%
2016 597206 65648100 0.91%
2017 607172 66040200 0.92%
2018 616014 66435600 0.93%
2019 615455 67530172 0.91%
2020 686000 67886011 1.01%
March 1, 2021
I agree with your concern about vaccination of individuals not at notably elevated risk of severe illness and death if infected. This is based on normal medical ethics in which we require a treatment to represent an appreciably lower risk than the risk otherwise faced. For a fit 25yo, this risk is so low that itâs almost inconceivable that, at a population level, vaccination wonât be riskier than infection. Add in that we honestly donât know the frequency or severity of potential unwanted effects in the long term, yet which we cannot assume is zero (no medical intervention comes with a zero risk), and it seems to me unconscionable to blithely offer vaccinations all the way down to healthy people aged 18. Unless the truly remarkable thing of a medical treatment with zero unwanted effects has just been invented, vaccinating everyone below some arbitrary age is likely to add nothing much to population protection but to add substantially to iatrogenic population risks.
February 28, 2021
Why not categorise the figures under possibly three headings.
1.Death due to Covid 19 where there were no other known causes.
2.Death from other possible causes but exacerbated by the presence of Covid 19.
3. Death from causes where Covid 19 was never detected.
The above would require an analysis of medical notes and patient history to come up with anything approaching accurate. On top of this there is the accuracy of the various Covid 19 tests to investigate. I wonder, after my positive test in Spain which resulted in 10 days isolation but no symptoms whatever. In fact I had more minor symptoms of little consequence after my first Covid 19 jab. There has been perhaps too much questionable data.
Apart from the need for bullet proof testing, it might only make us feel better than our international neighbours in this World, whose figures for many reasons might be equally questionable. Sadly those who died remain dead.
February 28, 2021
Sadly, my daughter in sheltered housing has died. The death certificate list primary cause as Pneumonia with Covid a secondary cause. Where that will be fitted into the statistics I suspect will never be known. He died about 3 weeks after the first member of staff was tested positive, then soon all were positive, including the residents. However, my daughter had been very unwell long, long before that and, as I say, the death certificate says pneumonia as primary cause of death.
I have written a scathing letter to my MP to complain of the brutal funeral service rules which mean I cannot speak at her church service, only the minister is allowed to do so. And this, in a church where doors and windows have to be left open, up to 25 people only, all masked and sat separated. Who on earth deemed up this insane ruling as to no one being allowed to speak in church at a funeral?
February 28, 2021
My condolences to you Martyn.
February 28, 2021
My deepest sympathies on your loss. And such heartless and unnecessary treatment for the funeral is unthinkable.
February 28, 2021
Very sad to read of the situation you find yourself in. My sincere condolences.
February 28, 2021
Sorry to hear it Martyn.
I recently attended a friend’s funeral under these conditions and it was one of the most beautiful I have been to. Please don’t be angry.
February 28, 2021
My condolences to you and your family. Very sad.
February 28, 2021
I am very sorry to read about your loss Martyn and that you arenât allowed to speak at your daughters funeral as you wish to. Could you record your eulogy on your phone and ask them to play it as a voice recording or if they have a screen on a projector screen perhaps just trying to think of a way around this for you.
February 28, 2021
My condolences on your loss Martyn.
February 28, 2021
My condolences
February 28, 2021
Thank you all for your kind thoughts and support. Hopefully this madness can be put behind us and we can re-enter the real world instead of the current madness we seem to inhabit.
March 1, 2021
My deepest sympathies for your loss.
You said: Where that will be fitted into the statistics I suspect will never be known.
She will go down as having “died with covid”, unfortunately, and be included in the daily numbers. The pneumonia was presumably present prior to Covid, which is why it was put down as a primary cause. It is sufficient for a doctor to suspect covid to put it on the death certificate – no test is required nor any symptoms, and, of course, a positive test within 28 days automatically marks it as a “with covid” death.
You said: Who on earth deemed up this insane ruling as to no one being allowed to speak in church at a funeral?
Yet churches are being used as vaccination centres and multiple people have to talk in them at the same time. This is about control – nothing else. The absurdities and inconsistencies of the past year have demonstrated, beyond doubt, that the government is incompetent and corrupt. The government should be disgusted with itself. The opposition is a joke. The only opposition to Tory authoritarianism is coming from a small group of Tories. Parliament is currently dysfunctional and it seems that it will not be ending soon.
February 28, 2021
Worse it skews death from other causes as if they have reduced or are not occurring. It is a govt fiddle.
Never have death certificates been so speculatively issued, never.
Testing still not anywhere near accurate after wasting ÂŁ22 billion!
Children should be in school, no reason they should not be. None.
Same with face masks. Van Tam made it clear last year there is no significant evidence they significantly reduce infection. Reiterated by Danish study last year. Van Tam totally discredited by his change in stance. However, govt using them to make people compliant. That is not science, not led by data, it is led by power grabbing fools.
Last week Johnson announced a further four month lock down under the false guise of a road map out! With minimum dates demonstrating his lie that the govt is led by data not dates! Credibility shot to bits.
Now govt on a dishonest false narrative blaming all failures on a virus not their own decisions and choices. Johnson wreaked havoc on the economy, Johnson caused job losses, Johnson caused businesses to go bust. Not based on science but cowardice to follow other countries.
Sunak states another evidence based lie that they are low tax conservatives! Taxation at seventy year high. Neither low tax nor conservative in any way shape or form.
February 28, 2021
Indeed. The lack of leadership and absence of critism during BLM and ER demon’s confirmed their utter disregard for the rule of law and values. How is Priti Useless getting on with the boat people now infected with Covid. 4* Hotel anyone, free health, mobile dentist’s, pocket money. Absolutely outrageous lack of action by this Government.
March 1, 2021
It doesn’t just skew the data about other causes of death. All other deaths are regarded as ‘unimportant’ while all Covid deaths are called a ‘tragedy’. Actually, almost all Covid deaths have been people about to die anyway – just as pneumonia, flu or whatever is the latest infection ends the lives of the very old, very frail and very ill every year. These are not ‘tragic deaths’ but ‘natural deaths’. All humans must die, but this truth is being eroded to produce fear of living to prevent death – death from a virus with a 99.9% recovery rate. Smoke and mirrors in a huge power grab, run by a group of behavioural psycholologists who don’t believe in the existence of ‘facts’.
February 28, 2021
That would be far too sensible for the NHS.
The state virtual monopoly NHS has many problems, the main one being a lack of any political will to move to a sensible system that works and kills rather fewer people. It has performed very poorly indeed relative to other similar countries.
The NHS and government do not really want the cause of death figure to be too clear for political reasons. Individual doctors may also have their own reasons to distort or be vague on death certificates.
February 28, 2021
The last thing that will happen is any meaningful reform of the NHS.
February 28, 2021
Andy, the last thing the NHS medical arm needs is further reorganisation. In some areas of activity it needs far more medical staff and therefore the money to pay for it. A twenty year rolling operation. Operate a Kenzai system whereby the medical staff together suggest and carry out improvements
If government do anything, cut the administration between the hospitals and the Health Ministry down to size,professionalise purchasing, and have a war on wastage. The medical staff will tell you where the latter is.
February 28, 2021
Agricola
I have to agree with Andy on this one, the NHS does need reform.
While it remains a noble organisation, in my experience it is going the way of the BBC – political correctness and woke-ism is getting a foothold.
One example is NHS office staff being allowed to jump the queue at supermarkets and get 60% discounts. Why ? I am capable of sitting on my backside all day dunking biscuits but I graft hard for a living. Where’s my discounts ?
Another example is when you have cause to complain at a Hospital, as is your right as a taxpayer, it’ll be : “security security, call security ! – a taxpayer is complaining”
March 1, 2021
I do wonder, in the inevitable enquiry, how the NHS will emerge. This is not to say the staff have not been very heroic and hard working, at least during the two peaks, but we all know infection control was never good within the organisation.
February 28, 2021
Much too transparent. The object is coercion. Not information. For that you’ve got to do your own research.
March 1, 2021
Perhaps this might help
https://lockdownsceptics.org/a-problem-with-numbers/
I like you JR, always have, but I suspect all politicians are under huge pressure to toe the line, and the information you say we need is largely in the public domain, directly or deduced. Your rep has always been one of incisive brilliance and independent thought and Iâm confident you know whatâs been going on, and how, and why, so this piece Iâm afraid really doesnât reflect that well on you 12 months after going down the rabbit hole of authoritarian control based on ridiculous modelling and (frighteningly effective) propaganda. Or maybe youâre paying lip service, I really canât tell.
I retired from medical practice last August, best thing I ever did. The NHS was ÂŽprotectedâ by shutting it down. My workload halved during the first lockdown but frontline hospital and care home workers have had to cope with staff shortages caused by self isolation rules. Nosocomial infections account for a significant proportion of COVID stats (and deaths). No jab, no job. Er….. safety and efficacy anyone??
Back to normal, the new normal, the Great Reset, come back George Orwell, All is forgiven!!!
Good luck everyone
March 1, 2021
Surely the testing is at fault as well the PCR test reveals ANY viral load not just Covid 19 the inventor Karl Cullis told the medical profession this openly. It will NOT detect if someone is infected.
March 2, 2021
I think your number 1 is less than 400 people, dying of covid alone, no other underlying health issue (obesity is an underlying health condition). Your number 2 is many, many people, dying with covid, but of 1 and more co-morbidities and your number 3 is the rest, skewed by 1&2.
February 28, 2021
Good article. Here we are, nearly a year since Lockdown 1, and we haven’t sorted out the counting problem. I want to see ground-truth established but so, at this late stage in the crisis, and with the public finances shot to pieces, there is less demand for more tens of billions to be thrown at the NHS.
P.S. I went for a walk yesterday and stopped for 15 minutes in the Vitamin D-giving sunlight to read a book. Illegal of me? And I took a look at the website of a popular tourist attraction in Kent, where one can go for a walk, in a group, in the grounds, but can’t play a round of golf as a twosome. The restrictions in place today lack logic; no wonder so many of those that do make sense are being flouted.
February 28, 2021
Cheltenham.
JF
March 1, 2021
Bournemouth beach, June 2020. Not one single Covid case reported after that gathering.
March 1, 2021
Yes, the great forgotten kick start. Sport, though, has always been a bit of a sacred cow. Look at footballers hugging and kissing.
February 28, 2021
Agreed. And socially distanced golf id a net positive to overall heath.
February 28, 2021
High death rates are needed to justify the senseless restrictions placed on us.
No one with half a brain believes the numbers or the fact that we have eradicated flu and pneumonia this year.
I for one don’t know anyone who has had Covid let alone died from it.
February 28, 2021
+1. This is all about control of the populace using dodgy data.
February 28, 2021
I know quite a lot of people who have had Covid. Some have had a very mild illness. A couple were very seriously ill. One, we think, has long Covid – as he is still not fully recovered from an illness he has November.
One person I know has died. She was classified as having âunderlying symptomsâ – though all she had was very mild asthma. She was 45 and had two primary school aged children. They are now growing up without their mum.
February 28, 2021
To me it’s especially sad when a young mum dies apparently without reason. A civilised society would want to know why people in their prime die from respiratory diseases and do more to help them. What treatment was she getting and was there an autopsy? Were there lessons to be learned about how vulnerable people can be identified and given early treatment? High tech solutions like vaccines are all well and good but some people will always be vulnerable to respiratory pathogens and we mustn’t lose sight of the need for early action/treatment. I fear that our healthcare system is always on the defensive and not asking the right questions let alone giving the right advice.
March 1, 2021
Such is life mate, this is why we all need to enjoy ourselves as you never know what tomorrow brings
February 28, 2021
Ian
You say you donât anyone whoâs had Covid…although my husband and I have had the virus, we donât of many others who have, and they arenât local to us.
I know of more people who thought they may have had it 2019/2020 over the winter.
February 28, 2021
Pneumonia is a condition of the lungs (inflammation of the lung tissue) as oppose a disease per se, which can be caused by a virus; Flu or indeed Covid 19 for example, as oppose something that can be eradicated. Ebola can kill folk due to “Hypovolemic shock” which apparently is due to low blood pressure via fluid/blood loss, with the virus being responsible for said condition. It is my understanding that someone who dies from “Covid” dies from complications of the virus I.e. Pneumonia, or the bodies reaction to the unknown pathogen via our immune system; a reaction which also causes dangerous inflammation, which they are trying to address with dexamethasone.
I don’t know if they put Pneumonia caused by Covid on the death certificates, or just Covid given that said condition was likely caused by the virus due to the fact the paitent had been diagnosed with it via a test; same as with the Ebola virus which caused hypervolemic shock and killed the paitent, I assume they say the cause of death was Ebola as oppose hypervolemic shock due to said condition being caused by the virus.
Now maybe the paitent had Flu, Rona, and MRSA in our hospitals and got Pnemonia somehow but given there is an outbreak of Coronavirus currently they picked that as oppose Flu? Suppose it isn’t as clear as with Ebola, given you could have Flu, Rona, MRSA & Ebola but it would be quite clear which one of those caused hypervolemic shock. If a paitent in the U.K had a disease such as Cancer as oppose a condition like Pneumonia, and they were terminally ill. Well they may have died anyway, regardless of having had a positive Covid test; so in response to the overall thrust of the article… I did hear autopsies have not been taking place due to Coronavirus restrictions, so proving exactly what killed a paitent may be difficult to ascertain; which maybe the cause of the possibly faulty data.
February 28, 2021
Of the genuine (CV19 caused) UK deaths this year (perhaps 26,000) then 6% + could have been saved by JCVI doing their job more scientifically & logically. So over extra 1500 deaths caused so far this year. If the World did the same if would save over 50,000 lives. So that is why I was a bit repetitive on this issue. Even if MPs and Ministers do not care preferring their expensive energy & war on plant food CO2.
On the positive side the single vaccine dose and delayed second (as I also suggested before Blair did) saves even more lives. Why on earth are some countries still not even doing this?
February 28, 2021
@ Lifelogic – JVCI at last (on 26th.) confirmed (as you doubtless saw) that the Covid19 is significantly more dangerous for men than women.
The Guido Fawkes site that day stated “JCVI data showed that for patients above the age of 40, the number of those with critical illness was roughly twice as high for men than women.”
A trip to the Court of Session for some sort of redirecting order is overdue perhaps?
February 28, 2021
Indeed it is and JCVI should have taken this into account but they did not.
February 28, 2021
Age is the primary factor, followed closely by obesity . Exercise for at least and hour a day will help reduce your chances of dying prematurely from/with Covid19. Outside is best (a bit of sunshine helps).
Unless you are elderly and infirm, don’t stay at home, get that heart pumping with a brisk 3-5 mile walk and save the NHS! Too many in hospitals are obese. And not just the Covid patients. ..
February 28, 2021
Sir John,
It is not surprising that most politicians are unable to follow the statistics of Cv19’s impact in the UK and abroad, that is true of most people. Having tried for nearly fifteen years to follow the arguments that rage around the science of climate change I am not at all surprised by the failure of SAGE to produce forecasts that match reality.
Should HMG establish an inquiry after this which covers prediction failures re foot and mouth, SARS, bird flu etc then some good might come out of this sad business. If the inquiry is also given the remit to explain why, after the expenditure of billions of dollars, pounds, euros etc the models used to predict climate change have also failed to produce anything but trivial forecasts that approximate to reality, the entire global economy will benefit . But when what constitutes a Covid ‘case’ lacks rigor then perhaps we are expecting too much of the modellers.
JF
February 28, 2021
Once you understand that China owns many of our Universities, including Imperial College, then it all makes sense. Our expert advisory panels are packed with communists and any divergent views are not tolerated.
February 28, 2021
Abslolutely but the Establishment do not want the people to know that.
Control of the masses.
How much are we indebted fiscally to China for Hinkley Point and how much
control will they have over the operational logistics?
Any divergent views on this site are also not tolerated. Control of the masses.
February 28, 2021
“Any divergent views on this site are also not tolerated.”
Puh-leease !
I’m amazed at some of the stuff that is published here.
February 28, 2021
The government has been pretty keen to conceal the probability of an individual truly being infected if they show up as positive after a PCR test. They prefer people not to know or not to understand. They would prefer not to talk about the number of people dying because of lockdown even though one assumes this number must be important to them. They prefer to draw attention to the number of cases rather than age standardised mortality.
February 28, 2021
Rishi Sunak risks a âfinancial crisisâ if he fails to raise taxes to pay for coronavirus spending, and must be ready to increase taxes on ordinary workers and shoppers as well as big business, says (now Lord) Kenneth Clarke. Why on earth did Boris enable him and Hammond?
Surely conclusive proof that JR is right in resisting all tax rises in the budget next week. The reverse is clearly the case tax cuts from the current hugely over taxed and indebted position is vital for recovery. Only three + years left to the next election.
February 28, 2021
BORISâS manifesto promised no rise the ârateâ of income tax, vat or national insurance. Yet it seems there is indeed a plan to increase NI for the self employed.
Freezing personal allowances and mugging pensions pots even further might not strictly break this carefully worded âpromiseâ but the public will certainly see it as a breach regardless. Why increase taxes when they are absurdly high already and the government has so much waste they can usefully cut out? Cut back all the useless degrees, HS2 and the net zero carbon lunacy for a start.
February 28, 2021
“It’s a simple law of nature: low taxes stimulate growth” – JR today in the Mail on Sunday. Indeed, as does cheap reliable energy, bonfires or red tape, tax simplification, easy hire, not forcing businesses to lock down and far and far less government.
Alas this government seems largely set on the complete opposite on all this.
The reason is simple people and business spend and invest their own money so very much more efficiently than governments spend other people’s money. The main skills of government are wasting money hand over fist, creating parasitic jobs and industries through regulation (all over the place), pushing investments and the productive overseas and inconveniencing the productive at every turn.
Oh and thinking of ever more new areas inconvenience, tax, licence and/or regulate to death.
They are very good at all these things, this after all is the business they are in, pouring sand into the lubrication of the economic engine and grabbing cash at every opportunity.
February 28, 2021
LL -Fully agree with those comments.
February 28, 2021
LL, JR was pushing the old Laffer Curve myth again. Even younger neoliberals don’t believe in that anymore. Lower taxes can stimulate growth; but, government spending is far more efficient at kickstarting private sector growth activity; particularly when it is spending on national infrastructure which only the public sector can orchestrate. Tax cuts tend to be saved not spent by households.
Basically, there are three ways of taking spending power out of a domestic economy that uses a sovereign fiat currency system, like the UK. Taxes, Savings and Imports. You won’t find a politician in Westminster that has the first idea of how the UK’s fiat currency economy actually works. Let alone, why the government issues debt instruments (Gilts) to remove the spending power it previously injected into the economy. Called the “full funding rule”.
One day, a bright young MP will stand up in Parliament and ask the question, “what purpose does the “full funding rule” serve and why do we issue tradeable Gilts, when a risk free savings, NS&I Income Bond account, could serve the same purpose much cheaper.”
Remember, there is no such thing as a government bond vigilante. Bond vigilantes are price takers not price makers. If they get out of hand the Central Bank can always nail them down to the interest rate it wants. The Central Bank has unlimited power to buy up any government debt instrument.
February 28, 2021
+1
February 28, 2021
easy hire and fire I meant.
February 28, 2021
I want to spend to help my fellow townsfolk but won’t be able to if I’m taxed heavily.
February 28, 2021
He could increase corporation tax, which is very low at present – but only if you’re an offshore multi-national!
Why is there a policy that foreign investment is a good thing that must be promoted with preferential tax arrangements, whereas home grown business growth must be stifled with tax? Friends in government?
February 28, 2021
Corporation tax should be zero. Tax the profits only when paid out as dividends or wages. If the company reinvest the profits in new jobs and ventures etc. that is good for the economy. The company will do it far better than Government.
February 28, 2021
Good morning.
And neither was it fair to shut down the economy, cancel vital appointments, trash millions of live, waste billions of pounds just to save it from its incompetence of its managers and PHE.
Our government and its agencies were caught napping. When the potential seriousness of the situation arose they panicked. They unquestionably listen to bad data from sources that have been constantly wrong on every major issues.
I can see the narrative now forming. The government wasn’t to blame because it trusted the data and the data was false.
COBBLERS !!!
February 28, 2021
Media never reports how other countries report covid deaths. It seems very difficult to find it out.
February 28, 2021
Very true – however the media was quick to show us full hospital wards in italy……still awaiting the pictures of our full wards (and not full of dancing doctors and nurses)…..and why 28 days ???
February 28, 2021
Spot on. France doesn’t count Covid deaths if you die at home for example.
February 28, 2021
There was a great article in the Spectator yesterday, written by Dr John Lee, reprinted from nine months ago setting out all the pitfalls of the poor record keeping.
For a new virus that was reasonably low down the list of dangerous diseases it became a notifiable disease – why? Because of this, all the usually stringent methods of recording death were thrown to the winds, why? Autopsies seem a rarity, which when you have a new disease makes them more invaluable. Why was this changed?
As with everything to do with this virus, absolutely nothing makes any sense! Logic and common sense were also thrown out of the window the day Boris decided to lock us up, close down Great Britain and terrorise the people with a relentless and still ongoing, campaign of terror.
All this begs the question, why?
February 28, 2021
Surely there are better things to do than a cosmetic recounting exercise seemingly only for vanity. They have died so time to move on. More important to concentrate resources on those still with us.
Off topic I see those people who rely on home deliveries are going to be taxed plus everyone else who doesnât want to pay excessive parking charges, hardly going green forcing people to take extra journeys and wants the choice the high street cannot offer.
Calling yourselves Tories is increasingly contravening the Trades Description act. Tax success reduce choice. Very Labour Party.
February 28, 2021
You think not knowing how many died because of CV19 is irrelevant?
You think having each item delivered individually is âgreenerâ than going shopping and bringing 100 items home in one car?
Are you in the Cabinet yet? đł
February 28, 2021
Read the first three letters of assume. 100 items, nonsense. A big Amazon van using multi drop is far more efficient than my, and my friends, pick up and go.
February 28, 2021
Yes 100 boxes from Mr Bezos in preference to my car going door to door is preferable, obviously, you will get a call from the PM, a person you trust I’m sure, imminently.
February 28, 2021
I too am increasingly concerned about the forthcoming budget and very much hope Margaret’s old friend Ronald’s words may not be applicable now: –
“Government’s view of the economy could be summed up in a few short phrases: If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. And if it stops moving, subsidize it.”
February 28, 2021
“Thanks in part to the increases in defence spending during his administration, Reagan also didn’t really reduce the size of government. Annual spending averaged 22.4% of GDP [federal spending, does not include state and local government] on his watch, which is above today’s 40-year average of 20.7%, and above the 20.8% average under Carter.
Indeed, in one very symbolic respect he enlarged it. While in the early years of his presidency Reagan tried to shrink the IRS, by the end, the number of IRS employees hit an all-time high, according to Steuerle in his book Contemporary U.S. Tax Policy.
The reason was two-fold, Steuerle said. The first was a desire to crack down on the proliferation of tax shelters. But the point of cracking down was to boost tax revenue. That, in turn, could reduce the need to impose other tax increases to combat budget deficits.” (CNNMoney.com)
As a mainstream Conservative neoliberal Chancellor, Rishi could be advised to, like Reagan, crack down on the mass of UK tax dodging legislation that favours the 1% elite and their transnational corporations.
February 28, 2021
I would suggest that many people have never had to deal with the inevitable bureaucracy of registering a death (in normal times) and do not understand that can be a 2-way matter. Pre-covid era, for instance, when a close relative with life-long health issues died in hospital very suddenly, I was called and asked if I would permit an autopsy to be performed, which I refused on the basis that her body had suffered sufficiently during her life, and this was accepted. When another elderly relative collapsed and died without warning at home, the GP and I discussed what should be registered as the cause of death, and what would or would not cause delay and further distress to the family; cause of death of was registered as ‘old age’.
I wonder if medical staff’s fear of accusations of carelessness in identifying the disease might be one of the causes of the high attribution to death by Covid.
February 28, 2021
SM
Absolutely correct as anyone who has been involved in the registering of death of a relative will know the score.
Two doctors need to agree on a cause of death, so each tend to cover their backsides by including everything, sometimes even including old age on the Death Certificate, as they did with my mother many years ago even though she had suffered a massive stroke a few years earlier, from which she never recovered..
I would guess with given how busy Doctors and nurses were in trying to save lives in the last 12 months, little proper investigation of each individual case was completed.
The simple fact is many would have died with Covid, than just because of it.
The Government have covered themselves by saying these are the death figures, where covid may have been a factor (with a positive covid test within 28 days) even if covid itself was not the cause.
February 28, 2021
We don’t perform enough post-mortems in this country as NHS pathologists are not adequately paid for this work. Many relatives consent to PMs if they are told their relative could have had a genetic condition that may affect all of their relatives or if they are considering a medical negligence claim.
February 28, 2021
Many will find the constant attempts to minimise and spin the Chinese plague virus fatality figures by those armchair epidemiologists and unqualified medics who post on your blog highly offensive.
The BBC website regularly posts updated sets of fatality figures using several criteria; today’s figures are in the range 120,000 – 135,000. These are absolutely appaling figures – no amount of spin can minimise the grief and loss that the bereaved are suffering. Though I never met the man, I personally mourn the loss of Captain Sir Tom – an inspiration to us all.
It need not have been so – had the government not made so many obvious mistakes during this crisis we might not have lost so many. The refusal to close the borders early last spring – allowing mass sporting gatherings to proceed – moving thousands of infected elderly from hospitals to the care homes – starting the first lockdown far too late ending the first two lockdowns too early – the lack of PPE available to front line staff – inadequate infection control proceedures in our hospitals – the ineffective test and trace scheme (which has now cost Sunak north of ÂŁ25 billion) – the refusal to undertake an early enquiry into what went wrong – the list is endless.
Eventually public health textbooks will be written about how the government mismanaged the response to this pandemic. My personal regret is that those responsible for much of this disaster have not considered their position amd resigned. If the loss of ~ 135,000 of Her Majesty’s subjects is not cause for resignation, what is?
February 28, 2021
I’m very sorry, Sakara Gold, but your comments simply underline your lack of ability to interpret statistics. Have you actually bothered to look at the official numbers?
February 28, 2021
So, JJ, what is your interpretation of these statistics? I am always keen on learning from a perceptive and knowledgeable person.
February 28, 2021
And you believe the BBC!!!!!
Basic hygiene in hospitals these days is very poor regardless of the situation.
Some of your other comments lead me to believe you have been sucked in by the MSM hype. All part of control of the masses.
February 28, 2021
What isn’t appalling is that the Government had indulged an obesity epidemic and kept many people alive who shouldn’t have been. It also managed to keep alive many people who were very old and very ill. Both categories resulted in our high death rate from CV-19… as well as miscounting.
We are a victim of success in our own country and failure in China’s.
February 28, 2021
Re the whole way that covid has been handed the conservatives are just spectacularly lucky that the labour party is so outrageously rubbish. With even the beginnings of a half decent opposition the governing party would not have been allowed to get away with this nonsense.
February 28, 2021
You can mince these figures and descriptions as you like.
Excess deaths are well over a 120,000 for the period, with hospitals, mortuaries and crematoriums severely stretched.
Something very bad has been happening.
Reasonable people will probably conclude that it is a covid 19 epidemic, and that more could have been done quite easily to prevent this appalling toll, as did many other countries.
February 28, 2021
What about ONS age standardised mortality rates? They must be considered. We need to look at the trends in mortality.
Zorro
February 28, 2021
This is false. You can, if you exaggerate the official statistics, claim that the total numbers of deaths is 120,000. You cannot claim this is the number of excess deaths and still claim that you are interpreting the official data, sorry
February 28, 2021
The average age of death has hardly altered.
February 28, 2021
”….hospitals, mortuaries and crematoriums severely stretched”
Check out the comparison hospital bed figures for 2019 and 2020 – almost no difference, so not severly stretched
And why are people being prosecuted and banned from filming empty hospital wards ???
February 28, 2021
MIC 120,000 is wide of the mark. Excess deaths in 2020 for the UK were c62,000. Check the ONS numbers below if you don’t believe me;
2010 561666 62759500 0.89%
2011 552232 63285100 0.87%
2012 569024 63705000 0.89%
2013 576458 64105700 0.90%
2014 570341 64596800 0.88%
2015 602782 65110000 0.93%
2016 597206 65648100 0.91%
2017 607172 66040200 0.92%
2018 616014 66435600 0.93%
2019 615455 67530172 0.91%
2020 686000 67886011 1.01%
February 28, 2021
I recall the issue was actively discussed here last year. Several contributors questioned changes in the way deaths were to be reported because it would cause overstatement. This is what has happened. It is in the NHS interest to bid up the numbers. It helps the case for more cash.
The other day I received an email from the NHS claiming that new research commissioned by the Chief Medical Officer reveals that I am clinically extremely vulnerable and have been added to the shielded patient list. On digging deeper it appears that this determination was made by an AI programme. More investigation led me to a description of the conditions and treatments typically found in such people. None applied to me! No doubt such “research” will be paraded to boost the case for yet more cash. It also serves to create and sustain this latest incarnation of project fear and to demonstrate how the precautionary principle is put to work to justify higher and higher taxes.
February 28, 2021
Every year many die from the flue virus.Has anyone died from catching this years flue virus?
February 28, 2021
Very convenient virus really.
So much like others as to be indistinguishable.
And if masks and all other abusive diktats work on âflu then surely they would have worked on COVID?
And if the virus is too clever for the psychological manipulation of masks and separation…
THEN WHY ARE THESE METHODS STILL BEING FORCED UPON US?
February 28, 2021
Control of the masses!!!
February 28, 2021
Apparently not….
Zorro
February 28, 2021
Valid point – which isn’t being picked up by the media nor MPs
February 28, 2021
Didn’t Father Christmas spread the “flue” virus very seriously?
February 28, 2021
Bob
“Has anyone died from catching this years flue virus”
Probably many fewer than in recent years because of face coverings, social distancing, tiers and lockdown.
Not aware of anyone who has had the “common cold” either.
But If you do not mix with people, and isolate yourself, then clearly less likelihood you will catch anything !
But you may end up very lonely and with mental health problems.!
February 28, 2021
Let’s do a root cause analysis.
Why did we have such high death rates?
Because we had high infection rates.
Why did we have high infection rates?
Breaking down, 40% of infections in hospitals and a further 20%? in care homes.
Why were hospitals and care homes such larger breeding grounds?
Because of lack of preparedness and organisational capability of the NHS.
Why this lack of preparedness and poor orgnisation?
Because of those who run the NHS. Disorganised monolith. Break it up, set it free to go high tech and re organise.
February 28, 2021
Could you either provide a link or search terms to see that data please?
I would be fascinated to see it and view the timeliness.
February 28, 2021
ONS charts show the excess death rate reducing below average after the spring peak and then going above over the winter season peaking in January and falling again to average. However, this is for the total number and the chart shows the non-covid deaths going below average when these patients came back into hospital after being denied access during the period from March to September. This would mean that the NHS improved outcomes by not treating and, though an interesting thought, is hardly likely. The use of the WHO guidelines for death certificates conveniently moves the deaths from cancer, heart, stroke, diabetes and other diseases into the covid category which goes above average and conceals the deaths caused by the lockdown.
The sudden reduction in ‘cases’, most of which were asymmetric or not serious enough for hospital or false positive coincided with a change in testing and reporting ordered by the WHO on the day that Mr Biden took office mid January. The number of cycles used for PCR tests was reduced because of the large number of dead or small pieces of RNA, which could not lead to serious infection, being picked up. The number of positive results fell and then levelled out after many of the false results were eliminated.
The comparison between countries is also affected by the use of HCQ and Ivrermectin in countries such as India and now to a lesser extent in the USA.
February 28, 2021
Asymptomatic not assymetric. It changes when out of sight.
February 28, 2021
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending12february2021
February 28, 2021
Thanks a lot.
March 1, 2021
Counting the columns in Fig 6 the deaths at home and the probable half of the excess deaths in hospital which were really not caused by covid, over the period from March 20 to February 12, using the ONS chart above, the excess deaths caused by the lack of treatment were over 50,000.
February 28, 2021
Nothing to do with the Conservative government’s failure to implement the recommendations from Exercise Cygnus in 2016 then?
February 28, 2021
Very few, if anyone, dies from Covid 19, the virus doesn’t kill directly, in the same way as a bullet doesn’t, death follows due to organ failure (or blood loss in the case of a gunshot wound). A previously healthy person who has been infected by the CV19 virus might well have fought the infection, their immune system destroying the virus, but the body be left with damaged lungs or a thrombosis (for example) that then go on and cause death, weeks, months and perhaps even years after – in the same way people who had been exposed to asbestos can die many years later due to complication brought on by “Asbestosis”.
If there is a need to remove from the states those only suspected of having CV19, in other words those who had not tested positive before death or post-mortem, nor shown any clear signs of having the disease, there also needs to be a way of adding those who have tested positive for CV19 but then died of a known CV19 complication 29+ days later.
Sometimes it might be better not to rock the boat!…
February 28, 2021
What a load of silly, meaningless truisms.
You might as well claim that Jack The Ripper’s victims were killed by malnutrition, without which they could have fought him off.
February 28, 2021
@MiC; You really do not have a first clue when it comes to the principles of cause and effect, and quite why you bring up the issue malnutrition, but by doing so all you have done is show your own ‘silliness’ and ignorance once again. đ„
March 1, 2021
and sadly old people who have a bad fall – broken hip, often get treated with morphine. So avoiding pain and discomfort but might not survive long enough to reach the delayed operating table. At least the stats will say died of the complications – not morphine o/d. The surgeon didn’t get the ‘ died on operating table’ on his/her record.
February 28, 2021
Many, many people have been calling out the obvious inflation of death rates. This is not something that could have been overlooked. There has been a deliberate effort to silence medical staff and censor alternative media that have been talking about this. The death rate from covid is going to turn out to be exactly the same as flu- which is what it is. Because of the fraud we have suffered lockdowns that have devastated the economy and caused untold numbers of deaths much worse than is apparent to most people now. The true effects will only show when the furloughs end and people come out of their houses to find that the world they knew no longer exists. This brings us to who orchestrated this and why. When that comes out I hope the retribution is very severe.
February 28, 2021
I like the spin on the name of the new entry visa, elite eh, seems designed by the outsourcing movement to bring in ever more dirt cheap grads. Completely contrary to the repeated manifesto promises to reduce immigration. The political class really are going full blast to transform this country into a third world hell hole. I suppose the labour party will demand even more are let in. Never has a political class been so divergent from the population it is ruling. There’s no possible good outcome from this.
February 28, 2021
Sadly numeracy is not high on the list of the abilities of most of our politicians (as evidenced by television interviews where the Minister (possibly Raab, I can’t recall) clearly didn’t understand that a false positive test rate of 2% means that 2% of all tests done are false positives, not that 2% of the positives are false).
The government assume a median false positive rate of 2.1%. We are testing over 500,000 people per day so should expect around 10,000 false positives, which is pretty close to the number of “cases” being declared on a daily basis.
This disease has run its course. Time to end all restrictions and attempt to save what is left of our wounded economy and to restore the mental health of the nation.
February 28, 2021
Where is it stated that the government is assuming a 2.1% false positive figure (for reference, a figure I have seen quoted elsewhere based on evidence from other countries such as South Korea is 0.32%)?
If the figure you state is accurate, where were all the false positives in July and August last year, where for a two month period, the daily reported positive rate varied between 0.3% and 1%.
Over that time period, 845,645 tests were carried out, with 54,685 positives, a overall positive rate of 0.65% over that 2 month period.
(All figures used are taken from the official published data.)
Your figure of 2.1% simply doesn’t stand comparison with real data.
February 28, 2021
Well..it doesnât look as if I have a FROM jab death on my hands. Thank the Lord. But OH was very poorly.Still shaky and second one to come!! And now I am terrified of having mine but do not wish to become a pariah.
ONS appear to have changed how they report deaths (recently) but they definitely reported that All Cause Mortality for 1990 was 564,846 and for 2020… 561,529.
Figures aside, and they are just a diversion really. A straw man argument to take attention from the utter devastation this govt has wrought…at whose behest?
The fact remains that no sane system would ever withhold medical treatment for every disease except one. No way out of that.
I am afraid that the fairies of globalism have stolen the govtâs souls away in the night.
They should reread all the tales of fairy gold!
But I guess they will find out anyway.
February 28, 2021
I recall mentioning right at the start of this pandemic that correct and precise data was key to the government being able to make the right decisions. The figures are proving to be fabricated and certainly don’t stand up to scrutiny. It’s clear that it suits the narrative of the politically motivated and self-interested public services/unions to ensure that the very worst scenario is always presented, but the responsibility has to lie with a government who must know this, yet crashed the economy without bothering to have the data independently validated.
It’s now going to be interesting to see whether the government holds its nerve in the face of regional rises of the virus now that the most vulnerable have been protected………..or will they buckle to pressure again and move the goalposts?
February 28, 2021
“Itâs now going to be interesting to see whether the government holds its nerve in the face of regional rises of the virus now that the most vulnerable have been protectedâŠâŠâŠ..or will they buckle to pressure again and move the goalposts?”
A new variant will doubtless be found to cover the rising R and death rates in our cities rather than state it as it is. Imagine if Boris had instead said, “I’ll borrow fifty quid from you and promise not to pay it back before June.”
Of course, you’d laugh at the cheek of it. It is a non promise disguised to look like a real one.
Well. This week he told us that he was going to let us out of lockdown (not) before June.
Con merchant !
Passports will be impossible for reasons I’ll leave you to work out. We’ll be forced to remain under Covid restrictions because the lowest common denominator is too powerful to call out.
February 28, 2021
Why would the government undermine its own decisions at this stage by robust data?! That would be like asking them to revisit the business case for HS2 or the case for Net Zero. Any post pandemic inquiry will have restrictive terms of reference. Some people still talk of Boris Johnson as a libertarian but heâs not going to authorise an inquiry that diminishes his own position.
February 28, 2021
ONS guidance for Drs filling out death certs. âFor Use During the Emergency Period Onlyâ
âIn an emergency period of the COVID-19 pandemic there is a relaxation of previous legislation concerning completion of the medical certificate cause of death (MCCD) by medical practitioners (referred to for the remainder of this document as doctor)â.
âFor example, if before death the patient had symptoms typical of COVID- 19 infection, but the test result has not been received, it would be satisfactory to give âCOVID-19â as the cause of death, tick Box B and then share the test result when it becomes available. In the circumstances of there being no swab, it is satisfactory to apply clinical judgementâ.
âWas the deceased sneezing?â
âYup!â
âCOVIDâ.
March 1, 2021
people talk about Covid arriving here as early as late 2019, and sneezing can be a clue.
Well I must have had Covid for the last 60 or so years, frequently sneezing as early as March most years (tree blossom), possibly peaking in a windy dry June, and stopping and starting for no clear reason thereafter. Today I’ve itchy eyes, sneezing, runny nose – no way am I going off for a test.
February 28, 2021
I see that China’s death-toll, on Worldometer, has gone up to 4,636. If my memory serves me correctly, that’s up by 2 in about the last 6 months. Seemingly, we’re not the only country that can’t count.
February 28, 2021
Where is your evidence that China, like New Zealand and other countries, has been unsuccessful in suppressing this virus to very low levels?
You have none do you?
In a Court of Law the accuser must prove their case, and for very good reasons. If you don’t get that then you shouldn’t vote or be allowed any responsibility at all, I’d say.
February 28, 2021
But first the defendant must attend the court of law !!!
March 1, 2021
No, the accuser must present prima facie evidence in order not to waste an innocent party’s valuable time before a hearing will even be called.
March 1, 2021
In this case the scene was cordoned off and cleaned up. Then a bought and paid for ‘investigator’ was brought in with a bucket of white wash and a brush and told what to report.
It was you that mentioned we were already in a court of law but I’m happy to go back before that.
And I fail to see why you’ve brought New Zealand into this. China is not like New Zealand.
I was called a racist whenever I asked why we couldn’t be more like New Zealand. The irony of it.
March 1, 2021
but is has such a big population they find it easier to drop the last 5 zeroes on numbers.
February 28, 2021
The likelihood is the UKs actual CV19 death rate is much the same as comparable countries such as France. Based on these figures it sounds like covid deaths are c. 30-40% overstated versus international comparisons. We will only know the true picture once itâs all over and we can see excess deaths for the period.
Meanwhile the vaccine programme is a triumph. The BBC and the left are trying to attribute its success âto the NHSâ. Of course the NHS is doubtless doing good work in executing the programme. but the credit for deciding on and organising an independent programme – which was hugely criticised by leftists for whom we should obviously go with the EU programme – needs to go to Boris Johnson and the govt. perhaps one of those clever SAGE modellers could tell us how many thousands of lives have been saved by this?
February 28, 2021
The UK has left the European Union.
February 28, 2021
oh no it hasn’t
February 28, 2021
The bottom line is the standard “excess deaths” methodology. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1131428/excess-deaths-in-england-and-wales/
Also, have a read of “COVID-19 deaths worldwide per million population as of February 26, 2021, by country” at https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/
(This a business grade data site but these are freebies I think.)
February 28, 2021
Inaccurate / false Data has been one of the main things driving a distrust in government actions. YES, the death figures should be honestly audited. That might help.
Another reason I distrust government actions is down to the testing process. Test numbers vary, as does the number allegedly tested positive, and yet we all know the test is designed to pick up symptoms of any virus – and the body is full of virus’ — so how can we trust these numbers. We get so many false positives that it invalidates the test completely, but we still carry on with a broken useless method! Clearly we should be using blood tests to check for infection.
Justifying lock-downs and masks with false accounting is what oppressive regimes do.
Let’s see some real honest data reporting — The only figures that matter are DEATHS ‘FROM’ CV-19, and HOW MANY ARE HOSPTALISED….
We should also get more data on deaths and effects from those taking the vaccine – I have not heard of any such data on the BBC, although there is a hard to find government site. Etc ed
February 28, 2021
I understand your reluctance to hurt the feelings of the NHS, though there is a very big difference between the leadership and the people doing the work. However, there clearly must be a possibility that our treatments have been less effective than those of other nations, so surely, this should go into the pot, with all other statistics, in any investigation?
February 28, 2021
Very early last year Prof Whitty said that the only way the effect of Covid is to compare 12 month death rates year on year.
February 28, 2021
Itâs an act of utter madness for a Government to make itâs countryâs figures worse than they actually are when many countries in the world are suppressing the figures. Someone could fall out of a plane but if they tested positive for covid in the last 28 days, then covid is what they died of. We have made ourselves the pariahs of the world as far a covid goes and for what reason? Compliance? Unfortunately it has worked and most of the great British public have turned into sheep believing the diabolical âdeath rateâ, afraid to go out of their front doors. Iâm sick of hearing left wing politicians attacking the Government for having the highest figures in the world without any retaliation.
This country is being run by a bunch of disingenuous amateurs and the sooner they are replaced, the better.
February 28, 2021
Data manipulation has been the hallmark of this government since it decided for whatever reason to make everything secondary to CV19. Aided and abetted by the media (well paid for their daily support with borrowed taxpayers’ money) the country has been force fed a daily diet of deliberate scare mongering to generate a climate of fear for a year now. Our liberties and freedom have been usurped in ways never seen, in some cases even in wartime. So much consequential damage has been inflicted on people and the economy but few MPs seem to care – perhaps they have been brain washed along with so much of the population? One day I want to see those responsible for these consequences will be held to account in a court of law and face the severest of penalties.
February 28, 2021
Well I think Boris has done well. Dealing with the pandemic, dealing with the EU trying to crash our economy or dish out punishment, despite a trade agreement. Dealing with The SNP continually trying to wreck the UK, MY U.K. Digging at Boris everyday, flying EU flags. Some on here canât even give him credit for the vaccine success. Or the many trade deals all over the world. There are many Captain Hindsights on here with unbelievable negativity.
February 28, 2021
@ BW – +1
February 28, 2021
Slightly O/T, but I question whether we are in fact following science.
For example prof. Ferguson said in a recent e-mail that Imperial have not one but four models, and that none are available for use by others.
This implies that at minimum three of them are wrong, and that none of them have been fully published and hence that none of them has been verified independently.
Given the replication crisis the scientific community is currently struggling with it is unwise to simply accept the advice of scientists when there is no possibility of checking it.
May I propose that scientific advice only be accepted when fully published, including the data and the calculations, these days likely to be in the form of computer code?
Otherwise we are not following science, so much as elevating scientists to the status of priests.
February 28, 2021
It’s all guesswork. Your guess is probably as good as theirs. Studies of the work of “experts” over many disciplines has revealed that they are no better are predicting stuff than you or me or tossing a coin. Read Philip Tetlock’s Expert Political Judgment for more.
February 28, 2021
Adding to the anecdotes, a relative very ill with cancer for years, in eighties, had a fall, successful hip replacement, became slightly unwell at home, tested positive, died comfortably at home, guess what was on the death certificate.
February 28, 2021
The same as pneumonia suffering 100 yr old Captain Tom ?
February 28, 2021
In his “Journal of the Plague Year” Daniel Defoe wrote about rather similar problems with the reliability and accuracy of the weekly bills of mortality, as can be seen by searching for the word “bill” here:
https://www.gutenberg.org/files/376/376-h/376-h.htm
For example:
“The next bill was from the 23rd of May to the 30th, when the number of the plague was seventeen. But the burials in St Gilesâs were fifty-threeâa frightful number!âof whom they set down but nine of the plague; but on an examination more strictly by the justices of peace, and at the Lord Mayorâs request, it was found there were twenty more who were really dead of the plague in that parish, but had been set down of the spotted-fever or other distempers, besides others concealed.”
Even if it was clear that somebody had died from/with the plague other members of the household had a strong incentive to conceal the real cause to avoid being shut up in the house.
For the formulation of public policy I don’t think it matters much whether 300 0r 350 people are officially set down as having died of Covid-19 in a given day; only if the numbers drop from three or four digits to single digits then does that become a significant difference which could justify a change in policy.
My fear is still that Boris Johnson will repeat what he has done in the past by giving in to media pressure and relaxing restrictions too soon and too quickly. Personally I have not been going out for exercise since Christmas when some people were behaving too carelessly and selfishly even though there was a new and more transmissible strain and unprecedented levels of infection, see the graph here:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19/latestinsights#infections
It is not that I am terrified of going out of the house, it is just that the behaviour of some others makes it such an unpleasant and annoying experience that I now prefer to avoid it unless it is essential.
February 28, 2021
Come come, this is an attempt to make Boris’s govt look less bad. Nothing more.
At some future time, long after it no longer matters some proper experts may rake over the data and come up with some minor plus or minus factor. Interesting to academics and statisticians but of no use to normal people.
Until then we must put up with newspapers and politicians trying to massage the numbers. Roll eyes and ignore.
February 28, 2021
You are asking the liars to unmask themselves! Good luck with that one – they would prefer to blame âour NHSâ – what else is it paid for but to take the heat?
February 28, 2021
We have data specialists on it – the Office
for National Statistics.
What is happening now is that because our COVID figures are so appallingly bad the Tories want to cook the books – as it were – to try to prove that they didnât fail abysmally.
So what will happen is at the end of this they will âreviewâ the data and will miraculously find that tens of thousands of the Tory Covid victims were not Tory Covid victims at all. They probably need to find enough non-deaths so our figures are in line with places like France or Germany.
No doubt this data review will report just in time for the next general election – where, we already know, the Tories are trying to change constituency boundaries so they work in their favour. They are also trying to suppress the vote by introducing voter ID checks – which we know affects the poor the most as it is expensive to buy ID. This is to tackle the non-problem of voter fraud which is espoused by some Tory MPs as a means to suppress the vote.
If they canât win by playing fair they cheat.
February 28, 2021
Yes, they have zero principle.
That is why rules-based debate – claims require evidence – with them is also impossible.
February 28, 2021
What a lot of rubbish.
You are descending into wierd conspiracy theories Andy.
February 28, 2021
The excess deaths figure would appear to be the best method of measuring deaths as a result of Covid.
Many of those excess deaths will have been caused by the response to Covid and are therefore a result of Covid. A death from an untreated Cancer because treatment could not be offered remains a death because of Covid and provides a measure of the disease and the response.
It is the only way to compare internationally.
The 2.9% death rate is alarmingly high and needs further analysis in the cold light of day.
February 28, 2021
… or a result of lockdown.
February 28, 2021
The UK has the 3rd worst death toll per capita in the world . Our rate is 1822 per million, far worse, even, than Sweden`s (1244), whose herd immunity approach, was, for so long, defended by Conservative voices. Swedenâs twin country, Norway, is 84th, with 115.93. Other nearby points of comparison ,The Netherlands Ireland and Germany have suffered less than half the UKâs cull.
No European country went into lockdown with infections so high, or with more warning. Tragically, âlock down scepticismâ, was, and is , as rampant in the âExperts don`t know anythingâ, Party ,as Trumps chaotic administration.
Pro Covid policies were as follows :
Locking down fatally late
Failing to provide PPE
Tipping Vulnerable hospital patients without Covid tests ,into care homes.
No test or quarantine system
Failed test-and-trace
Eat out to die out
Schools and universities opened without sufficient precautionary measures.
Opening too fast in complete denial of basic science
The Christmas fiasco
Telling people to get back on trains and into offices
I could go on…..
Sir John`s efforts to massage the figures are trivial, given the scale of the UK`s failure and I would appreciate it if he spent less time ensuring his political survival, and more time worrying about my actual survival.
February 28, 2021
I could go on too. Population density, age profile of population, obesity rates for example don’t make it onto your list. Your bias is even worse than the BBC. Next you’ll be claiming that Boris killed Captain Tom!
February 28, 2021
Are you shielding ?
If not, what a wimp.
March 1, 2021
just make sure you remember at the next GE. Unless lockdown after lockdown, rules after rules, slogan after slogan, endless TV late afternoon addresses scramble your brains and early onset dementia wins.
February 28, 2021
To be absolutely accurate, the measure is âdeath of ANY cause within 28 days of a CV19 positive testâ. By any definition, that does NOT allow us to understand the figure of those who died of/with CV19. A positive CV19 test does not, as has been repeated ad infinitum, mean that you have the disease, are infectious or have had it. This is clear in all the medical literature. It requires a diagnosis by a doctor looking at the symptoms. As a lot of people are asymptomatic, at best you could have had a CV19 positive test and no symptoms and then have a heart attack three weeks later but you become a statistic. I am sorry, but this totally unacceptable.
Zorro
February 28, 2021
John, I really could not express my honest heartfelt comments on all the lies, untruths, blatant BS or whatever you want to call it on this “virus” and the govt reactions to it – without you banning me not only from your site ( which I enjoy) – but from the internet and possibly even this solar system. This has been one MASSIVE scare exercise to push fear and control on the people of this country. I am more likely to die from my anger-increased blood pressure than to die of this virus.
Figures given out as “deaths within 28 days of a positive test” – ridiculous. Run over by a bus – but you go down as a covid figure??? – other figures given out as “per 100’000” Wherever is that used before???? Is that what you think of people????? Anyone who isn’t part of the elite is subnormal??? – IQ just reaching double figures???
P.S. – – Why why why aren’t ANY of those invading England through Dover – with Border Force – and our taxes help – being sent back?? Is the plan to take in the world?? It damn well looks like it.
I’ll tell you now – NO vote from me.
February 28, 2021
The cup of the people of Wokingham runneth over. Not only do they have an excellent MP, Wokingham is now reported as the healthiest place in the Country.
February 28, 2021
Another decent critique by John Redwood. Sir John Redwood knows the truth and the British people know the truth.
Only the Conservative Woman now has the moral courage to expose the destruction being wrought by both main parties to the UK. From the profitable and political exploitation of Covid-19 to the embrace of social engineering, racial politics and conditioning propaganda to infect the minds and souls of our people.
Labour, Tory, SNP. Three morally bankrupt, hate filled, vile, abhorrent and destructive political organisations who will stop at nothing to protect themselves.
February 28, 2021
Dom, correct. A morally bankrupt ruling elite, of the political class and public sector, and all their outposts like the BBC and education sector.
February 28, 2021
+1
February 28, 2021
Dom +100 I totally agree. Con woman has very good researched with evidence and fact. Compare to con home and MSM.
The cover up for appalling fake Tory govt decisions is underway make no mistake.
How can Handcock make a speech in parliament like he did last year and a year on still in office! Where is he being held to account for misleading or lying to parliament? We have this fuss about Sturgeon at present, Handcock far worse – he leads the govt failure which has caused over a hundred thousand to die, his figures, through utter incompetence and wreaked havoc on the economy in doing so! He does not have the honour or humility to recognise he ought to resign! No, he thinks everyone should thank him and his team! Perhaps we ought to thank Fred Goodwin he did not lose as much as Johnson/Handcock!
February 28, 2021
It is interesting to speculate that if doctors and surgeons were paid directly by patients or their insurers, (perhaps via a compulsory insurance based scheme, as is the case in most European countries), they would have found it much more difficult to shut patients out as has happened “due to Covid”. It would also be much more difficult for the Government to “adjust” the system for recording deaths, as clearly happened by making Covid a notifiable disease.
February 28, 2021
Correct, the sooner medics depend directly on their patients for money the better.
February 28, 2021
Wokingham has been named the healthiest place in England while Blackpool has been branded unhealthiest, according to the first official national health index.
The Berkshire town received an overall health score of 110, putting it to the top of the list, while Blackpool only scored 86.
The scores, collected by the Office for National Statistics and financial services company Lane Clark & Peacock were found by combining different health factors in every area such as dementia, cancer, alcohol misuse and adult obesity.
How many of those deaths are linked to life style I wonder quite a few I suspect. I do hope that when your constituents see their taxes go up they’ll be pleased to kbow its going to fund so called Red Wall seats as the government puts Workington before Wokingham
February 28, 2021
WE, Wokingham the healthiest place in England: this must be due to the level of healthy discussions on this site.
February 28, 2021
The majority of people who post on here do not live in Wokingham so there is no validity to your claim Hefner.
February 28, 2021
Let’s face it, the administration of the UK is corrupt, complacent, lazy and incompetent.
We get no moral guidance or leadership from politics. We are lectured by posturers who ‘believe’ in nothing in particular for more than a short term. Those who claim a high ground won’t go any further than debate.
I had hoped today the subject of England’s identity and it’s position in the Union might, logical, come up but was disappointed.
February 28, 2021
Notwithstanding how the deaths from “Covid” are counted, is anybody else concerned with the fact that all other deaths from all other causes never ever get a mention. Since all this started there have been more than 600,000 other deaths (I believe) from all other causes in the UK yet no-one ever seems to consider this impact on us all and the apparent utter disregard for all these people and their families. It is as if there is no cause of death other than Covid. There will be huge numbers of people now in the UK who do not realise that Covid deaths are actually about 15% of all deaths.
February 28, 2021
Good point, but Covid deaths were less than 10% of 2020’s 686,000 total, not 15%.
February 28, 2021
I see that the chancellor has gone even more extreme anti freelancers, I hope his political end comes soon, and the conflict of interest having a business in the family which directly competes with UK freelancers by using cheap foreign workers needs calling out.
February 28, 2021
If you look at the Total Excess Deaths figure and compare that to the official Covid deaths figure, the UK is one of the few countries where the Covid deaths apparently exceed the Excess deaths.
As of 23 Feb 2021, Britain had 106,110 excess deaths and 112,760 Covid deaths. At the same time Italy had 92,730 excess deaths and 54,380 Covid deaths. The majority of countries have this same pattern of lots more excess deaths than Covid deaths.
So it is certainly true that Britain seems more willing to attribute deaths to Covid than most other countries. This does not say anything about which is right or wrong of course, simply that you have to be aware of this in international comparisons.
(These figures are from “The Economist”).
February 28, 2021
Their numbers are completely wrong as they do not adjust for population increase. Death rate all cause in the UK last year was 1.01% vs prior 5 year average of 0.92%. This gives you 62,000 excess deaths in UK for 2020.
2010 561666 62759500 0.89%
2011 552232 63285100 0.87%
2012 569024 63705000 0.89%
2013 576458 64105700 0.90%
2014 570341 64596800 0.88%
2015 602782 65110000 0.93%
2016 597206 65648100 0.91%
2017 607172 66040200 0.92%
2018 616014 66435600 0.93%
2019 615455 67530172 0.91%
2020 686000 67886011 1.01%
March 1, 2021
I don’t think population increase makes much difference. Yes I know 200k net immigrants p.a. (or whatever it is these days) seems a lot, but it is only 0.3% p.a. of the total population.
You are increasing the denominator in the calculation from 67.0m to 67.2m; it won’t affect the answer by much. Even in 5 years it is only a million extra, increasing the denominator from 67m to 68m.
In any case they don’t calculate XS deaths like this. They model the previous 5 years and extrapolate that forwards to 2020. That defines the baseline for 2020.
February 28, 2021
Sir John, what neither you nor any other politician seems able to accept is that, far from praising the ‘saintly’ NHS, you should be castigating them. The reason for the high death rate can be explained in two words: NOSOCOMIAL INFECTIONS. These existed in both hospitals and care homes, but the NHS ones are those that have, shamefully, been ignored by politicians.
What happened was that people went to hospital for other reasons, such as cancer treatment, and as a result of their weakened immune system and the high levels of Covid viruses in the hospital, then caught Covid 19 and died. So instead of protecting patients, the NHS effectively killed them. If Covid patients had been isolated in separate hospitals (such as the Nightingales) and if the government had spent half of the billions it wasted on its cretinous ‘track and trace’ failure on a massive investment in UV air filtration for all hospitals instead, the death rate would probably have been halved.
Given that every politician believes that criticising the NHS is political suicide and is therefore too cowardly to do so, what we need is an independent judicial inquiry into hospital nosocomial infections. Do you agree?
February 28, 2021
Sadly the judiciary isn’t really independent.
Suggest you sit through some court cases.
February 28, 2021
Studies are showing that obesity and obesity related conditions are a significant contributing factor in the CV-19 death rates. Much of this is avoidable through self discipline and restraint.
The NHS indulged an obesity epidemic before this hit.
The Nightingales were a folly. This is a syndemic and not a pandemic. We have been lied to. The Nightingales were ill equipped to deal with the comorbidities that the vast majority of CV-19 patients come with and that’s why they haven’t been used. They were built when we expected a pandemic where literally everyone could drop dead.
Dare I say it, the Queen should have exhorted the nation to stop being selfish and eating so much cake – though we know what happened to the last monarch who mentioned that foodstuff.
February 28, 2021
Yes. The figures show 40% died from hospital COVID infected and another 40% figure given of total deaths from elderly transferred from hospital to care homes! When is Stevens going to be held to account along with other NHS heads and PHE? Criminally, not just civil law or public inquiry.
These people also failed to plan, prepare and operationally test for a pandemic and acted against their own plan published plan last year and the WHO paper in 2019! The govt and them decided to follow China who caused it and decided to cover up with the help from the WHO!
February 28, 2021
Some patients caught covid in hospital and passed away sooner than they would have. Others were tested until they tested false positive and when they died they were recorded as with covid on the certificate. Some patients arrived old and ill with genuine covid and died.
In India those with covid only and a chance of surviving are given a kit of Ivermectin and supplements in the early stages and most avoid coming into hospital.
February 28, 2021
https://www.rxindia.com/medicines/medicines-by-therapeutic-class/covid-19/ziverdo-kit/
February 28, 2021
An extract from the âoff-guardianâ site:
âAs you can see, the global decline in âCovid deathsâ starts in mid-to-late January.
What else happened around that time?
Well, on January 13th the WHO published a memo regarding the problem of asymptomatic cases being discovered by PCR tests, and suggesting any asymptomatic positive tests be repeated.
This followed up their previous memo, instructing labs around the world to use lower cycle thresholds (CT values) for PCR tests, as values over 35 could produce false positives.
Essentially, in two memos the WHO ensured future testing would be less likely to produce false positives and made it much harder to be labelled an âasymptomatic caseâ.
In short, logic would suggest weâre not in fact seeing a âdecline in Covid casesâ or a âdecrease in Covid deathsâ at all.
What weâre seeing is a decline in perfectly healthy people being labelled âcovid casesâ based on a false positive from an unreliable testing process. And weâre seeing fewer people dying of pneumonia, cancer or other disease have âCovid19â added to their death certificate based on testing criteria designed to inflate the pandemic.
Just as we at OffG predicted would happen the moment the memo was published.â
February 28, 2021
I see JR has copied his tweet below stating “good to see more many more people vaccinated”!!!!!!
Have you had yours JR?
February 28, 2021
When are we going to start counting deaths caused by lockdown ?
I don’t know anyone who’s died of CV-19 or been hospitalised with it. I’m not saying it isn’t serious but the numbers are there to back me up. 100 or so thousand, mainly over 82-year-olds – for the majority to have known anyone who as died of CV-19 the victims must have known a lot of people in their dotage.
They classified my uncle as a CV-19 death despite the fact that he was tested in his last week of prostate bone cancer and had contracted it because he was being visited by relatives because he was near to death.
I have known three people die because of lockdown and two of those were under 60. Two misdiagnosed and treated too late and one withered in her flat, a sprightly 75-year-old at the beginning of the year – a demoralised shadow of herself by the end of it.
All deaths not directly *of* CV-19 should be counted as deaths by lockdown – it couldn’t possibly be more sloppy or unscientific than the clearly militant NHS’s counting.
And when are we going to scrap using the R rate now that the vaccines are here ? We’ll forever be in lockdown if that is the measure.
February 28, 2021
There will surely be many factors affecting the death rates between individual countries from population densities and ease of travel, domestic and international, to compliance with regulations and for reasons which PC will not be allow to be investigated.
The only meaningful comparison figures may turn out to be excess deaths except that here we will never learn the true figures for communist regimes such as China who are claiming only 100K cases and 4.8K deaths.
February 28, 2021
The larger European countries have probably all got a very similar Covid death rate.
France, Italy, Germany, Spain are all sadly heading upwards to the numbers of deaths in Britain.
Covid mainly affects old people and there are a lot of old people in Britain ( I could say more about old people with too much power over Brexit, immigration, nationalism, etc but I need to stop)
On balance I probably accept in Britain the numbers are not entirely specifically Covid only deaths and many are pneumonia with Covid being a secondary infection. Ok this suggests the GOV probably should have been quicker to offer all old people a life time pneumonia jab early last year, and this could have saved deaths.
The big problem now is the numbers are out for the world to see and another down ward change in these numbers is going to look very suspicious.
March 1, 2021
The old who took this country in to the EEC and bore the cost and chaos of the early years of membership.
The old who could always compare the true costs with the true supposed benefits.
The old who’s friends and families in the Commonwealth were abandoned by the politicians.
Compared to such as you who whine because worthless sweeties they never had to work or pay for have been taken away.
Did you buy the tea towel?
February 28, 2021
In any other walk of life, data that is so self-evidently flawed would have been corrected many months ago. That someone had to point out last year (before the 28-day adjustment) that you could never recover from a positive CV19 test, your ultimate death would be CV19 whenever it happened, speaks volumes of the groupthink and amateurishness of our scientists, medics and statisticians. While you have raised the matter as you say several times, it has been a topic on social media from the minute UK began trending ahead of nearly everywhere else nearly a year ago, despite our âworld-beatingâ NHS. Thank goodness our genuinely world-beating pharma industry is reducing deaths at this late stage but frankly we as UK taxpayers and citizens find it demeaning and embarrassing to see this dodgy data presented every day on the internet and at Government briefings. Where is the political will to sort this?!
February 28, 2021
The cause of death of the elderly and co-morbid is often quite complex to disentangle. The most relevant question here seems to be: ‘Who writes the death certificate?’ If it’s a hard-pressed duty doctor in the hospital department that treated the deceased patient, the deceased’s medical history and aetiology is most unlikely to be carefully read and analysed. Duty doctors are notoriously skimpy in reading files, and will often bung in anything probable or even plausible just to get the box ticked and avoid a coroner’s intervention.
If it’s a GP, one with thousands of patients, who (for understandable reasons) has not seen the dead patient for some time before death, then some reconstructive guesswork will be involved. Much simpler to reach for a cause of death that will be accepted without question and unchallenged by a coroner.
February 28, 2021
A FOI request to the Royal Cornwall Hospitals NHS Trust revealed that from the period 1 Jan 2020 to 31 Dec 2020, there were only 4 deaths from Covid alone. This reality contrasted greatly with the propaganda that was being peddled. I have a copy of letter from the Trust, which has been posted on the internet.
February 28, 2021
So Florida is open but has better death rates than California which is in lockdown like the UK, and Florida has a larger proportion of old folk too as people go there to retire. Says it all doesnt it.
February 28, 2021
Thank you for continuing to ask the right questions which unfortunately seem not to be asked by other (inept) politicians, ministers or the media.
February 28, 2021
It isn’t simply a matter of the average mortality rate but also of the profiles of the cases in different countries and how successful the NHS and local authorities have been in preventing nosocomial infection amongst sick people in hospitals and care homes. The use of open mixed wards is fine (not by me) and cheap compared with single rooms as long as there are not highly infectious contagions abroad. The nearest NHS hospital to me is mostly in a skyscraper and I would wonder how easy it is to prevent its lifts from containing tainted air. There is also the fact that both in care homes and NHS hospitals, large numbers of staff are employed by the shift so the number of different individuals coming into contact with one sick patient is likely to be much higher with the obvious risk that that entails.
This may not be a matter of differential certification standards so much as chickens coming home to roost in an NHS and care home system run by an overabundance of Arts graduates who have the priorities of the grossly ignorant when it to comes to spending and saving money. There are too many hierarchies in the NHS invented to give jobs to people who are not involved in care. Hospitals should be managed by doctors locally with assistance from admin staff who should not be employed to read door stoppers produced by Arts graduates in the DoH.
February 28, 2021
Wokingham is the healthiest place in the U.K.!
Well done!
It may not be the only reason, but having a committed and energetic MP must help.
March 1, 2021
Could it be that since people do not waste their time trying to see a GP, and don’t get referred to specialists -stats would appear to show an amazingly good health situation.
Call me sarcastic – – guilty as charged.
March 1, 2021
The number of excess deaths from all diseases is fairly high and that is partly due to the fact that the NHS is incapable of expanding rapidly when a pandemic comes along. Some of the excess deaths are due to ICU beds being mostly taken up by COVID-19 patients, crowding out other patients. There is an extreme reluctance in the UK to accept that in many ways the NHS, with its free-at-the-point-of-consumption die-on-the-waiting-list system, is an inflexible institution in need of reform.
March 1, 2021
A FOI request to PHE and the NHS regarding distinguishing between someone who has caught the virus and someone who has developed COVID, the alleged form of pneumonia complications as a result of having caught the virus has had one response from PHE saying that they do not know. They do not know at what point it is Covid. The data is a total mess, probably deliberately and all that is left is to take overall mortality, compare that to other years and take out of that overall mortality the estimated deaths as a consequence. In England and Wales, this continuously keeps arriving at approx. 30k deaths with or from Covid in 2020 (despite two prior soft flu years) but just over 40k deaths nothing to do with covid. One can only assume that these are the heart attacks and strokes where hospital treatment has not been sought, suicides, people who have just given up with longer term conditions which were not previously life threatening but cancelled treatment has made them that way and ?????????
The response taken was NEVER recommended by our Govt or the WHO. Decades of scientific knowledge and research has been chucked out of the window on the basis of a couple of now discredited (and highly questionable at the time) Chinese reports endeavouring to suggest that healthy people can spread disease and that this (never designed to be used as a test) PCR test with a high cycle rate can detect those healthy people and call them sick, for what at the end of the day (sad yes, but true and worse, known to be true last April) are a relatively small number of potential early deaths with this disease. Who knows, most of these could have been susceptible to any form of strong flu. The NPI’s don’t work, only cause greater harms, the cost to people’s lives in all manner of ways has been indescribable and yet they continue with their dangerous path and nobody is stopping it. Few are questioning it sufficiently. Funeral directors are not burying anyone with / from covid that they wouldn’t be expecting to bury. There is your acid test.
This is all just total madness and insanity! Where have their brains and common sense gone because I have no idea. Thousands of us are looking at upping sticks and emigrating, working out which countries are best to escape too whilst thousands, if not millions, more are wishing they could.
March 1, 2021
The BMA have instructed doctors to put COVID on the death certificate even if there is not a positive test. This is published on line and can be easily found.
The UK was also the only country to not have a ‘recovered’ figure and still doesn’t. I pointed this out to my own MP around 8 months ago and he saw nothing wrong in this. I protested that it skewed the figures against the NHS and UK. Finally an Oxford Prof told NHS England that the way they report is wrong and finally the government listed.
However in speaking to friends in Italy, Spain etc, they do not have the rigour we do and they have massively under reported their deaths.