This autumn statement is quite easy to characterise: it will increase spending a lot, it will increase taxation revenue a lot and it will increase borrowing. I do not recognise all the descriptions by the commentariat and Treasury when they put it rather differently. I do not see this as an austerity package that is half done by public expenditure reductions and half done by tax rises. The tax rises are certainly there, with Ā£260 billion more in tax revenue in the last year of the period, compared with last year. However, there will be Ā£200 billion more of annual spending by the end of the period, compared with last year. Borrowing is also definitely up, with the increases clearly weighted to the current year and next year. I think that is right, because I hope we are trying to offset some of the deflationary and recessionary forces, and a fiscal adjustment in that direction in the next two years clearly makes sense. Arguably, it is a little underdone, when taken in conjunction with the very tough monetary policy that the Bank of England is now providing.
The first point I wish to make to the Government, therefore, is that money policy, which was far too lax last year, as some of us warned, has lurched to being extremely tight. I believe the forecasts that say that inflation will tumble over the next two years, although perhaps not quite as fast and as far as they sayāif it was completely abolished by 2025, that would be a remarkably good outcome. However, I do think that inflation will come down, because money has been greatly tightened.
Whenever I make a point about bond buying and selling, quantitative easing and money policy, I am told by all the Opposition parties and by Ministers that the issue is not for us mere mortals, because it is something that the Bank of England does as part of its independence. I therefore need to remind the House of the constitutional position and of the deeds of this and former Governments. When quantitative easing was first introduced under Alistair Darling and the Labour Government, it was decided that it had to be a dual-control policy, where ultimate control rested with the Chancellor and the House of Commons. Every amount of bond buying has been authorised by successive Chancellors and, therefore, endorsed by Parliament.
More importantly, every Chancellor and every parliamentary motion has said that it is down to the Treasury and taxpayers to pay any lossesāthat includes those that will now be madeāon this bond portfolio. That is why the issue should be of great interest to this House and why I find it odd that nobody ever seems to want to debate it. These are colossal sums. We see that in our immediate budget this year, because it has been decided between the Chancellor and the Governor of the Bank of Englandāindeed the Opposition agreedāthat this House will vote for a special subsidy (of Ā£11bn) to the Bank of England for just a five-month period to deal with the losses on the bond portfolio. We do not have a breakdown of all those losses, but clearly quite a lot of them will come from selling the bonds in the market at very depressed prices, compared with the purchase price.
I say again, there is no need to do that. Indeed, it is undesirable, because money policy has already been tightened a lot and that will be a further tightening. On the item where the Bank of England is properly
independent and where Ministers would obviously not comment, I must add that I think it is dreadful that the Bank kept interest rates as low as it did last year and has not raised them sufficiently even this year at the short end. It keeps telling us it will get round to raising the rates to the level needed to kill the inflation, so I say, āGet on with it.ā
In the figures given today, it is suggested that the short rates will peak at 4.77%āa very precise and unlikely number. I do not think they need to go that high. They are currently at 3%, for those who can remember, and somewhere short of 4% or maybe 4% is quite high enough to do the job, given the tightening we have already seen. Will the Bank please get there as quickly as possible and then announce that that is the worst of the damage, so the markets can adjust to the appropriate rates?
That leads me on to spending. I think the spending plans go too far. I welcome the sensible spending on trying to ease the squeeze, on upgrading pensions and all the other necessary measures, and I am glad the Government got round to taking them. But it would be a good start to stop the big subsidies and interventions to the Bank of England; we need to look at the total interest rate costs, because one of the biggest increases in spending is on interest rates, which is why I have made more comments on them.
I do not know whether enough has been put into the figures to reflect the very odd way the Bank of England and the Treasury express the interest rate charges, including the valorisation of the index-linked bonds, which is not a cash item and is not paid month by month or year by year, but is rolled up to maturity. That was the biggest element of the big increase in interest costs when last reported, but presumably that disappears to nothing when we get to the point in the forecast in 2024-25 when they tell us there will be no inflation. I hope enough credit is given in those figures, because quite a lot of the extra increase is coming through that interest rate programme.
Along with many other colleagues on both sides of the House, I am impatient for the Government to get on with encouraging, helping and mentoring more people, who are currently on benefits and may need that extra bit of help, into all those jobs we still have, before the recession really hits. Will the Government please get on with it? Billions could be saved and people could be better off if several hundred thousand of them could be persuaded into some of those 1.2 million jobs that are still available. It would be a win-win all around: for the people concerned, for the taxpayer and for the state.
I echo the comments of my right hon. Friend the Member for Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland (Mr Clarke) on HS2. While I fully accept that the Government are completely committed and do not want to cancel the whole scheme, they could certainly have another look at controlling the costs and the phasing on such projects, because in the next two or three years we are pretty short of cash and the borrowing levels are very high. I think something could be done along those lines.
There is also plenty of work to be done on migration. Others will agree that by cutting out the business model of those who traffic people across the channel, and
having more appropriate accommodation for those who come here legally, we will save hotel costs. The cost to the state of the legal migration for low pay model is not to be recommended. If we invite a lot of people in for relatively low-paid jobs, they will need a lot of financial support from the state for social housing, extra school places, extra medical facilities and so forth. Indeed, when the EU had an inward migration crisis in 2016, under Mrs Merkel, it reckoned that the capital cost to set up a migrant family with social housing, along with the extra public facilities and extra capacity required in respect of transport, energy and so forth, was ā¬250,000. We are talking about very large sums. If we invite in hundreds of thousands of people a year, we need to build a new city every year to accommodate them in decent conditions, and I do not think we are making that kind of provision in our budgets. The Chief Secretary to the Treasury should have a good look at all that.
Finally, we can do a lot more on growing revenues, particularly in energy, where we are still not getting on with the licences, permits and encouragements and incentives to invest. If we produced a lot more of our own energy, it would cut the carbon dioxideāit is particularly intensive to import liquefied natural gasāand generate a lot of extra tax for the British Treasury instead of our giving all the money to the Qatari and American Treasuries, as we do under the import model.
November 23, 2022
Climate change and asteroid deflection is a distraction from real existential threats.
The real existential threats come from a 62% drop in sperm rates over 50 years (The Guardian) and a 27% drop in relative global European wealth from 30% to 28%.
November 23, 2022
Some are hypothesising that the contraceptive pill containing oestrogen is wasted in urine which travels to the sea and gets into the gobal water cycle and so feminises generally but I am seeing many more with high female androgens and PCOs.
November 23, 2022
It used to thought London was most at risk from this as the water is recycled. 8 times. I have no idea what the truth is. Plastics are another suspect – environmental oestrogens.
November 24, 2022
Could well be.
November 23, 2022
I wonder if that same hypothesis works with antibiotics and vaccines
November 24, 2022
Anti biotics are thought to affect weight.
November 23, 2022
What do you propose?
Stopping developing countries from developing?
November 23, 2022
NLH – Javelin didn’t propose that at all but if the Greenists are to be consistent then stopping developing countries from developing (at least in the way that they are now) should be in their agenda.
It isn’t.
Why ?
November 23, 2022
I await your better solution?
November 23, 2022
Sunak wasted Ā£11.8 billion on fraud and stopped investigation to recover, Reeves pointed out last week. Sunak gave away Ā£11.6 billion 2 weeks ago to cop 27. Sunak gives away another Ā£12 billion in overseas aid! Ā£36 billion given away literally and wasted. Tough decisions! My arse. Highest taxation ever since 1945 and he gives away Ā£36 billion! Cost of living? Serving with integrity! Appears a compulsive liar to me. Same for Hunt who has an agenda for EU.
My family worked during covid and had no hand outs either, why are we getting hammered?
November 23, 2022
Because that’s what the UN and WEF want to happen.
November 23, 2022
Hope
“Why are we getting hammered”
It would seem they are addicted to giving away the taxpayers money, and are incapable of spending any of it wisely.
It has been going on for decades, but only now has it become so obvious to so many.
All Party’s have been the same, no matter who is in power.
November 23, 2022
Hope – The delivery drivers who worked through lockdowns and brought the middle class shirkers stuff while they stayed safe at home are about to be spanked for another Ā£8 a tank VAT.
So too anyone who uses a car to get to work or care for relatives (because they’re sure as hell not used for pleasure now.)
This is all far worse than the Corbynism I tried to avoid.
November 23, 2022
+100
Sunak is saying he will sack half the NHS to install robots.
Guess which company is involved in robotic surgery.
Hereās a clue..the same company was praised by the WEF for its next generation digital prowess.
Digital identityā¦chip us all!
November 23, 2022
I use to take the mickey out of conspiracy theories about lizard people and politicians ā¦now Iām not so sure
November 24, 2022
I don’t see it as conspiracy, but groupthink. They all think the same way and act acccordingly. As in the double coup d’etat. They don’t need to conspire.
November 24, 2022
not lizards but effective camouflage.
November 23, 2022
There is a good book by Martin Rees āOn the Future: Prospects for Humanityā looking at the various and many potential risks to humanity. Though he is, wrongly in my view, far too much of a climate alarmist, not a very āmake me feel good bookā but very good in general.
November 23, 2022
levelling down rather than up is what we have in store.
November 23, 2022
US Biden putting America first hurting EU! Good. What does Sunak Hunt do in revision while hiking our taxes? Give EU first by awarding them to build our warships! UK must be the only self harming country in the world! Still Sunak has only given away Ā£24 billion of our taxes in two weeks and wasted another Ā£12 billion to fraud he will not investigate!
November 23, 2022
Correction ādrop to 22%. ā
November 23, 2022
This demonstrates the brilliance of the Global Warming Hoax for the actual purpose of undermining our industrial might and exporting it to the Orient where different rules apply. The same with the promotion of mass third world immigration and concerted attacks on the nuclear family by the promotion of transsexualism and mixed race couplings in the media and advertising. Who is behind all this I wonder?
November 23, 2022
All good points
November 23, 2022
John, well said.
Thanks
November 23, 2022
+ 1 – although the well said words needed to be heard by a Government that is on the side of the people and of course were not, alas.
November 23, 2022
Yes, very pertinent points from our kind host, as we would expect. BUT Sunak & Hunt will of course completely IGNORE him.
Sir john, the other day you succeeded in getting the government to drop their housing plans. You did so by getting together a sufficient number of rebels who would have defeated the Bill. THAT is what you need to do with the government’s budget. You need to get a group that agrees on two or three basic changes and then threaten to rebel. It’s the only language Sunak & Hunt will listen to.
I would suggest that you demand an increase in the personal allowance to Ā£20,000 (which will be very popular with the electorate) and more tax incentives – such as a superdeduction – for businesses to invest in capital expenditure and R&D, as well as a freeze to the corporation tax rate at its current 19% level (which wil be very popular with industry). Surely you can find enough Tories who believe in such basic economic good sense?
November 23, 2022
It is rare to find others on here that profess the wisdom of raising Personal allowance to say Ā£20k, even over perhaps 2 steps. Of course the recipients will like the idea, but taking tax collectors out of the massed armies of totally unproductive Civil Servants ought to be recognised by anyone with even half a brain.
Drop Road Fund licences for cars, increase petrol/diesel sufficiently to produce required tax, the user pays – even the Greens and Eco warriors ought to approve.
Instead of having Diversity managers, local authorities ought to have Work for Benefits managers – there are all sorts of public services unemployed people can do – litter collecting, graffiti removal, verge cutting, minor pothole filling, road sign cleaning/and overgrown vegetation trimming, uneven pavement levelling. Readers could come up with so many more.
November 23, 2022
+1
November 23, 2022
I agree well said, but they aren’t listening and won’t listen to sense. Utterly disingenuous Tory Party leaders who have no mandate.
November 23, 2022
Just about everywhere I look people are saying the actions of those in government are deliberately damaging the economy of the UK. And judging by events there is little to doubt this.
Greece v2.0 ?
November 23, 2022
Yes, I hate to be negative but I think Sir J is naively trying to make a difference, but as with the Commons chamber, there’s nobody listening.
We have lost democracy, we’re being governed by technocrats who take their orders from a ‘higher power’.
Reform of the Civil Service is essential before any democratic system can achieve results.
November 23, 2022
Its as though the politicians & civil service need a memo from the speaker & head of the civil service reminding everyone that the voter is supreme and that they work for them and only them
November 23, 2022
Agreed, Mark B. Why don’t the sensible MP’s (of all parties) object to this senseless damage to our economy, our society and our culture?
November 23, 2022
@Shirley M +1 – This Parliament lost control of the UK some time ago, Brown gave the BofE independence. Osborne created the OBR because the Treasury couldn’t hack it. Now those organisations are consolidating their Empires by fighting the Elected Representatives, as they know in there current forms they are redundant. The big Problem they have more Power than our frightened Elected Government doesnāt want to be acting on behalf of the People
November 23, 2022
Today in the House the Immigration Minister was being questioned on hotels for illegal immigrants. With the exception of Sir John and a handful of others, the MPs were only concerned with the illegal immigrants and blaming the Home Office for not giving them nationality, jobs, and good housing soon enough. No-one mentioned the British people on the streets or the million plus in the council house queue.
GB News is kicking up about this now, especially the former soldiers and mentally ill, and about time too.
November 23, 2022
@rose – Suella Braverman, as a supporter of Brexit and being a Conservative, is the next target for being undermined by the Remainers in both Government and the Civil Serpents..
November 23, 2022
Rose
There is little need for government now, much less individual parties.
All they do is provide cover for the embedded establishment which calls the shots.
All MPs are worse than useless. All of them.
They are ALL participating in a great deception – worst of all are those who offer hope when they know full well there is none and nothing is exposing this better than the immigration crisis.
I doubt the Tory party is going to exist after the next general election.
November 24, 2022
When they’ve got rid of Raab.
November 24, 2022
rose, why are they trying to get rid of Raab? I don’t understand it.
These government departments have spent millions Ā£s on equality, diversity, inclusion, and HR managers, how many complaints were logged officially at the time they allegedly happened? Isn’t that the rule that if workers have a grievance, they bring it up, document it and HR deals with it?
If Raab wasn’t aware MULTIPLE, according to Geneva Abdul in the Guardian, civil servants had an issue of bullying isn’t this a failure on the whole Management team, not just Raab? (and I’m not a Raab fan). They should all face disciplinary action for a lack of action. The lawyer review should include them the disciplinary and grievance procedure, and how they actually dealt with the officially raised issues, they should bring in an independent HR regulation organisation to review the Civil Service itself.
The Union’s Penman is getting involved; how much was the union aware of this happening at the time, not later at a time when memories fade and recollections may vary? Informal complaints are tosh, if they didn’t want the official methods of dealing with bullying involved, then it is just gossip surely.
November 23, 2022
When Liz pointed her finger at the party of āanti-growthā I believe she was describing the Labour party, however itās become apparent that itās actually the Tory party
November 23, 2022
SM,
Good question. I assume MPs will now just try to hang on until a general election while looking around for other options if they are removed from office.
āConservative Homeā- if it is anything to go by – does not care about the damage. It promotes Liberal Democrat ideas. David Gauke, who had to be booted out of the Tory party and then failed to get re-elected, is their star guest writer most weeks.
November 23, 2022
I note Chloe Smith Conservative MP and former minister has announced she will not stand at the next election. No reason given.
November 23, 2022
She’s only 40.
November 23, 2022
Yes, there are many remainers on Cons Home who love their hero David Gauke. Like many remainers, they would rather see the UK destroyed than accept Brexit and democracy, and even more amazing, they will blame Brexit for the destruction of our economy and democracy.
November 23, 2022
@Shirley M +1 The enamy within
November 23, 2022
‘if they are removed from office.’ ?
For about 200 it is a certainty. Do not worry about them – they had cultivated friends well before they got elected.
November 23, 2022
So it has been since Blair stepped down frankly.
November 23, 2022
You’re in the wrong party John.
It’s infested with limp dumb and will be wiped out at the next election.
Your a candle in the wind.
November 23, 2022
Richard Wellings āThere’s a reason the economy is being sabotaged by high taxes, red tape and other anti-growth policies. They want to make it easier to push the UK back under EU control.ā
Some other anti-growth government policies are net zero, bonkers energy policies, over complex taxation, fracking, drilling and mining restrictions, the duff expensive legal system, too restrictive planning, the prospect of Labour/SNP in two years, vast government waste, the net harm vaccine, the 500k waiting for operations for over a year at the NHS and far more on the list (all cause deaths still up 15%), the bloated state, HS2, corruption and hosing of cash to vested interests or friends pocketsā¦
November 23, 2022
Yes, these Tories are making a real mess of things.
You put ’em there.
November 23, 2022
NLH – In doing something similar to Corbynism and following Blairism… yes – it’s a right mess.
November 23, 2022
Well I didn’t but what was the only realistic alternative but Corbyn/SNP/Libdim?
November 23, 2022
If that is a question for Martin, don’t expect an answer.
November 23, 2022
Jeremy Corbyn put them there, people rightly concluded that anyone would be better than him and so it has proved.
November 23, 2022
It has to be said. Meticulously plannedā¦yet unnoticed?
And I am so glad that folk are waking up!
JR at least pulls no punches.
November 23, 2022
@Mark B +1 A Parliment frieghtened of its People
November 23, 2022
Government(s) have always made mistakes and errors and the voters have either been forgiving or oblivious to the events ā¦.not so since 2016 when this government decided NOT to implement the wishes of the populace and the result of the referendum IN-FULL
November 23, 2022
@glen cullen +1 They reinterpreted the vote question to mean something other than leave and have been fighting the People ever since. They have frightened themselves into believing that they our MP’s cannot function without direction from the unelected, unaccountable EU Commision.
November 23, 2022
Correct – The only time in my life that I actually believed that my vote meant something …and the MPs ignored it
November 23, 2022
1
They are on a mission for EU. There is no other plausible explanation. May gave her Lancaster speech then her Florence speech overturned it and showed her traitorous hand. Brexit MPs did not want to believe the obvious then and the same now!
November 23, 2022
But her Lancaster House speech had a cloud no bigger than a man’s hand: mention of a customs union. That rang alarm bells with me at the time.
November 23, 2022
Sir John. Thank you for a very informative post.
The millions of small self employed businesses are taking a hell of a hit with all the uncertainty and perceived loss of control of the government about supporting them when concentrating on foreign situations.
Has anyone stop to think about how much the impact of higher fuel pricing hidden in the Autumn Statement is going to put on the small businesses and sole traders? It will all have to be passed onto their clients which will impact on their order books as the householders will only call on them for emergencies. Yearly maintenance will drop off. That impacts on safety issues.
November 23, 2022
Tories know it. It is deliberate.
November 23, 2022
Bailey brought down Truss and Tory MPs sit in silence. Game over for British democracy
November 23, 2022
“British” “democracy”?
One can only imagine the squeals and howls of outrage, if the ECJ had told brexiters that they couldn’t hold a referendum on European Union membership.
What a pity you don’t do irony eh?
November 24, 2022
the irony is that the Government Party is bringing down the country and itself, without any bitter and twisted views from you!
November 23, 2022
+many
I think I heard tell of a bit of a back bench push back!
High time too.
November 23, 2022
+1
I am at a loss why he has not been sacked unless acting with Hunt types.
November 23, 2022
Very True – Its a shame that there’s only one person to save democracy
November 23, 2022
If I emigrated to a foreign country I wouldn’t expect or receive social housing. Why are we expected to subsidies low paid workers to come and live in the UK when we have plenty of unemployed and part-time workers? It seems to me that companies are cutting costs on salaries and training and expecting the British taxpayer to foot the bill. We don’t have enough housing for our own people and things are set to get much worse in the next few years. Have you looked at the supply of homes in the private rental sector recently? Landlords are selling up in droves due to this governments constant attack on the sector. When the new energy certificates come in much of the private rental stock will fail to meet the new regulations and it won’t be viable to upgrade them. This will result in evictions with nowhere for tenants to go. Does this government not look at cause and effect?
November 23, 2022
Christine you are stating the b….y obvious, but no one who makes these silly rules are listening, other than it would seem our host.
Indeed this is so B….y obvious it makes you wonder what planet they are on, and what Country they live in.
John has outlined the capital cost of one immigrant/family in one of his recent posts, as approx Ā£250,000 in infrastructure investment needed by the taxpayer.
Good grief it they worked for 40 years here paying tax of Ā£5,000 per year that would not even cover the overall cost to the taxpayer, even if they did not draw a single benefit from day one.
Does no one in Parliament do simple maths any more ?
November 23, 2022
No they don’t think. For years 100s of thousands imported to do minimum wage jobs. The companies are happy as English tax payers subsidise their wages with tax credits, health, housing, education and health costs.
Sunak and Hunt are on manoeuvres to try and get us back in the EU. Why hasn’t Bailey been sacked for his disastrous performance at the BOE and Truss’s demise?
November 23, 2022
My son worked in US, no housing, health, dentist provided etc. He had to pay for everything.
Why is taxpayer forced by socialist Tory govt forced to provide for cheap labour! Cultural destruction, that is why.
November 23, 2022
Same with almost every other country in the world
November 23, 2022
a method of exerting total control over the people….
November 23, 2022
There was a very sad story on the BBC website about two days ago, about a 70 year old single lady, who had been renting privately for years, as she has never been able to buy a home.She has been required to leave her rental home, as the landlord wants it back. .
She has been on the social housing list for years, and has been unable to secure one. This lady is desperate as to where she will live, as there is a shortage of private rentals, that she can afford. Her situation is desperate, and I am angry that this lady has been unable to find an affordable rental, when we are importing hundreds of people a day from over the Channel.
This is shameful!!
November 23, 2022
Day trip to Calais, hire a small engined boat, aim it for mid Channel, cut the engine and ring 999 on a mobile.
Taxi and hotel room soon provided.
November 23, 2022
Thanks for your speech. Are you still going to vote for the Autumn Statement when the time comes Sir John?
reply I didnāt
November 23, 2022
I wrote to my MP and asked him not to vote for the Autumn statement. He agrees with the statement as being the only course of action for stability. And any interaction from the WEF is clear and transparent.
With the shenanigans going on during Brexit, his approach then and now is to accept whatās going on as thereās no other option.
If his approach is typical then we can see why weāre in this mess!
As my 91 year father said recently, thank goodness we didnāt have this lot running the country during the two world wars – weād have lost! Heās right, theyād have been nā¦ sympathisers.
November 23, 2022
Was a vote conducted, how did it go?
November 23, 2022
It is ultimately our, the electorate’s, fault for voting these jokers in. Equally it will be us who votes them out of business. Permanently and soon. Reform it is.
November 23, 2022
We didn’t know the CONS were totally dishonest, anti-UK and anti-democratic when we voted them in. We thought they cared about the UK (BIG mistake). The blame lies with the fraudster, not the victim. Sadly, democracy doesn’t protect us against a Parliament full (mostly) of anti-UK frauds. Two more years of these ‘placemen’ will be agony.
November 23, 2022
+1
November 23, 2022
I think, Shirley, the turning point was when Michael Howard was rejected by the electorate. He had the right idea and offered a way out of Blairism, but he was demonised by the media, and the public obediently turned him down. That was how we came to be dominated by Cameron and Osborne’s idea that Blairism had to be aped. Cameron only did two conservative things that I can think of, apart from giving us the referendum which wasn’t his idea: he appointed William Shawcross to the Charity Commission; and he took gardens out of John Prescott’s classification of them as brown field sites. Both good things, but I think Michael Howard would have done a lot more than that.
November 23, 2022
The mess caused by the Tories is absolutely down to the Reform tendency within them.
You want a government composed of 100% of those lunatics. Good luck with that.
November 24, 2022
I’ve never quite grasped what sort of make up you want a Government comprised of? Please explain!
November 23, 2022
An absurd speech to the CBI by Starmer on immigration, pay levels and green crap. The deluded man is rather confused.
Why are we losing car manufacturing he asks – well you need cheap reliable energy, lower pay, cheap housing for workers and less red tape to make electric or other cars competitively. The prospect of Labour/SNP shortly and absurd tax levels from Hunt/Sunak must put many (even most) industries off investing in the UK.
November 23, 2022
Isn’t it extraordinary, LL, how much approving fuss the media are making of him for having said what he said aobut mass immigration, and after vilifying and witch hunting the two Home Secretaries on the same point!
November 23, 2022
You also need sensible regulation. I have read that the proposed Euro 7 standards will shut down vehicle production in Europe because they are simply not attainable at any sensible cost. They may even kill EV production unless someone invents tyres that don’t wear or cause roadwear.
November 23, 2022
LL,
Giving Spain contracts to build our warships when in recession, giving jobs and industry needed here! Traitors. Absolutely disgusting party.
November 23, 2022
@Sir Joe Soap There is no Party in this Parliment able or on the horizon able to get back power from the anti UK faction in the Establishment – any form of democracy is lost
November 23, 2022
Well what choice did the voters have given first past the post and the always have always will voters.
Corbyn or Boris then May.
Someone on excellent “The Weekly Sceptic Podcast” asked “how much worse could Corbyn have been? He could have confiscated private property I suppose?” Well this is being done by the Tories in many ways the windfall taxes, the private hospital requisitions, CGT at up to 28% (without any indexation against inflation), taxation (and over regulation) of landlords on profits they have not even made, IHT at 40% over just Ā£325K, inflating away your savings with Sunak’s vast & deliberately inflationary QE. The hosing of large sum of tax payers money to vested interests. All are just disguised “Conservative” thefts.
November 23, 2022
LL,
His spending plans were thrifty compared to SinaiāsĀ£34 billion give away plus money printing to Ā£500 billion!
November 23, 2022
Sir Joe, there’s no doubt in my mind that the Tory Party will be decimated at the next election (diabolical miracles excepted). None of the Tory voters I know would vote for them any more. Some are hellbent on wiping out the Party they once supported, even if it means voting for Labour or Libdem.
The great question is still whether Reform can break through, given our FPP electoral system.
November 23, 2022
Not convinced by Reform.
All this Singapore on Thames low tax stuff seems for the birds after Truss.
I’m not sure it matters what government we have. I think there is very little spare money and we will muddle through with slow tax rises and declines in services.
The one thing we could do is a big trade deal with the US, but it would mean throwing farmers under the bus, which would not be good for the Tories, or indeed rural communities.
November 23, 2022
Why do we need a trade deal with our biggest trading partner?
November 23, 2022
+1
November 23, 2022
I am afraid, Jo Soap, that the little grey man of Reform just like others who have tried. We need someone willing to fight with fists if need be!
I have no yet spotted a good candidate to follow yet!
November 23, 2022
Thank you for standing up for Conservatism and “the little people.”
However, it will make no difference. The Globalists in power aren’t interested in the well-being of the British people; they are implementing UN 2030 and the WEF Agenda. They are deliberately wrecking our economy, importing poverty and are generally running the country down.
You can’t “Build Back Better” unless you have first destroyed everything.
November 23, 2022
Spot on.
How did Hunt get in? EU remainders are on the march. The party needs culling.
November 23, 2022
I haven’t yet seen a true dye in wool Tory MP ‘leaver’
November 23, 2022
Thank you for your explanation John, a bit above my pay grade on financial matters hence the reason I read your Blog to try and keep myself informed, and given you have spent a lifetime in international banking and Commercial management, I trust your judgement more than any other MP on such matters, and therein is the problem, most MP’s I would suggest do not have a clue what you are talking about, including I would guess some past Chancellors, Past Prime Ministers, and future wannabe Chancellors and Prime Ministers, yet they vote on such matters simply because of tribal loyalty.
The self employed and small business owners are being hammered Time and Time again with rising costs, caused by Government policy and a rise in taxation.
We will never recover properly until this is recognised.
People do not invest their own money in their own businesses in order to pay more taxes, they do it because they want a greater reward for their own efforts and risk.
November 23, 2022
Off topic, I’ve sent the following letter to various newspapers:
“Addressing the CBI conference Prime Minister Rishi Sunak dismissed the idea of a closer, “Swiss style”, arrangement with the EU and proclaimed:
“Under my leadership, the United Kingdom will not pursue any relationship with Europe that relies on alignment with EU laws.”
But a part of the United Kingdom, Northern Ireland, is permanently locked into dynamic alignment with EU laws, so when will that be sorted out?”
My reference is: http://www.niassembly.gov.uk/assembly-business/research-and-information-service-raise/eu-exit-hub/protocol/dynamic-alignment/
November 23, 2022
You say you want us to produce more energy but of course if anyone proposed fracking or on-shore wind or a small nuclear plant in Wokingham you’d do everything you could to stop it and so would every other Conservative MP in the house if it were their constituency. In the same way you’re currently stopping the government setting new house building targets because you don’t want any of those in your constituency either (and neither do your constituents). That is why in practice the Truss growth plan was entirely undeliverable anyway.
November 23, 2022
Surely you can see what’s going on, Roy? Just over the last year alone, Westminster politicians have overseen the import of nearly a quarter of a million incomers into this country. Then they say we need more houses! Utterly cynical.
We urgently need to stop this insane migrant labour policy, and train and pay our native workforce adequately. Let’s try to digest the impact we’ve already suffered from over-population and insufficient infrastructure, not add to the problem year-on-year.
November 23, 2022
The last time Conservative clown politicians displayed their incompetence in economic affairs (the ERM debacle), they were voted out of office for 13 years. This time I believe they will be voted out for a much longer period. Deservedly so.
November 23, 2022
+1
Well said James. It is deliberate treason. You do not give away Ā£36 billion and insist tough decisions, no choice etc. before imposing no give away or spending cuts!
November 23, 2022
and once thrown out how on earth would you persuade people to give them another go?
A bit like a new Communist Party – not a chance.
November 23, 2022
Wise words that probably just go in one ear and out of the other.
Google “cymbal monkey homer simpson” for my view of the occupants of the green benches.
November 23, 2022
Our PM was very supportive of the Ukraine during his recent visit, our taxes pay for the support of course. He does not however support his own nation and has given us very little to look forward to in our future prosperity. A very poor leader in my opinion.
November 23, 2022
Good morning Sir John
Thank you, donāt let up for the sake of us mere mortals! You are one of a very few voices support the People who elected you and the Country as a whole.
I note the MsM is reporting that all the Bank of England miss steps are being dumped on us the taxpayer, they have no liability or responsibility to anyone. Not the Government not the people of the UK. Also creeping into the mix that the so-called mini-budget was far from being a mistake, it was taken down by the briefings and actions for the BofE(and others in the BLOB) trying to cover their previous mistakes.
These actions keep bringing up the tired question who Governs the UK? Our Elected Bodies or the anti UK Establishment. If Parliament doesnāt redress the imbalance there is no point in Parliament.
November 23, 2022
Off topic, but remember the National Plan to “divvy up our carbon allowance” which Stanley Johnson referred to:
Well here’s the House of Lords Report on the “National Plan.” Basically they recommend the Government deploy PsyOps techniques (like they did over Covid) to result in behavioural change since the technologies they are proposing to deliver Net Zero (renewable energy, EVs, heat pumps etc) are inferior to the alternatives so people won’t voluntarily switch.
This is a deliberate plan to use PsyOps techniques and make YOUR LIFE colder, poorer, less mobile and CONTROLLED.
Remind me when the British people VOTED for this.
https://lordslibrary.parliament.uk/net-zero-and-behaviour-change/
November 23, 2022
So we’re just plebs and we work for them ….knew it
November 23, 2022
+1
November 23, 2022
Ā£60 billion additional borrowing in 25-26 with borrowing higher throughout the period.
You have gone some way to raising it in your speech Sir John but at what point does Government ask itself what it should really be involved in? It evidently spends too much money so rather than looking for cuts in areas it should be involved in would it not be better to decide what areas it should not be involved in. I include diversity and supporting lifestyle non-workers in that review. I also think that the costs for support on gas and electricity should have been passed on as a problem to the suppliers, your cap has just saved them a whole bucket load of bad debt and poor PR.
Immigrants should not be supported in any way. You choose to come, you pay your way or your freeze and stave. Anyone incarcerated for crimes should be deported immediately (including minors)
November 23, 2022
To ask the Treasury minister.
As the minister claimed he did not have time to list all the enormous Brexit benefits delivered and still delivering; perhaps he could list them all in his reply to my written question.
“Top Tory boasts Brexit is delivering ‘enormous’ benefits – then can’t name a single one
Treasury minister Andrew Griffith told MPs Brexit ‘can deliver and is already delivering enormous benefits’ – but hastily added there wasn’t time to reel off any of them”. (Mirror)
November 23, 2022
I am going for three replies in a row, Lifelogic style.
The owners of a fish processing facility in Grimsby said the site is no longer āa strategic fitā. After announcing plans to exit the UK market āfrom a value added perspectiveā and reportedly recording losses of Ā£8 million, Iceland Seafood UK will be shutting down its Grimsby operations.
As fantasy Brexit gives way to reality Brexit, I am wondering what Nigel – throw some dead fish in the Thames on camera – Farage, is going to say.
November 23, 2022
The real benefit is simply being an independent democratic nation.
Like well over a hundred nations on our planet.
People have fought and even today are fighting and dying for just that objective.
Is it all just about money to you acorn?
November 24, 2022
Peter 2
Interesting but mildly naive.
1 There are not a hundred independent democratic countries in the world. There are not enough democratic countries
2 I am not sure the majority of the British population agree with you, with the worst fall of living standards for 40 years.
3 Brexit is of course only part of the consequences like 4 PCT less GDP over 5 years. (OECD)
4 A bit more reading might make you more realistic? It’s worth a try?
November 24, 2022
Inttersting but very pro EU billy
1 There are over 160 nations only 27 belong to the EU
2 Agree with me about what? And How do you know?
3 What on Earth are you trying to say?
4 Try answering what I wrote instead of making up a fantasy list of answers to questions I didn’t pose.
November 25, 2022
If you don’t understand simple answers it’s your problem
November 25, 2022
Peter 2
But there are not 100 democratic countries in the world.
And why do you bring in the EU?
November 24, 2022
Would you call N.Ireland democratic? Scotland? Italy? Germany? even USA?
November 23, 2022
And now the O.E.C.D. is forecasting that the U.K. economy is set to deliver the worst performance of all G7 countries and is set to be the worst performer in the G20 over the next two years except for Russia.
Readers here of course know the causes of that forecast outcome. Chancellor Hunt’s maladroit actions have accelerated and deepened the Sunak Slump.
November 23, 2022
‘Bring Back Liz’
November 24, 2022
Confused are we?
November 24, 2022
No
November 25, 2022
Glen
The market rejected her and we can’t afford it
November 23, 2022
Sunak and Hunt are making sure the UK tanks this November.
All spending has been frozen.
They are choke-holding the economy.
November 24, 2022
That slump happened before Sunak
November 24, 2022
Not in the Uk service industry it didnāt Bill, public sector spending was stalled after Sunak and Hunt took over. Orders have been put on hold. China is causing problems with parts. November after half term is going to give very poor results. Hunt has his sticky fingers all over it.
It was a big fat lie that Truss and Kwarteng caused the problems, a lot of the problems with the money market lay at the feet of the BoE. Truss had spoken in great detail for two months about what she intended to do if she became PM. The only surprise in her package was the drop in the higher tax rate to encourage growth. At most it could have cost Ā£2bn but more than likely would have cost nothing as time and time again it was proven revenues rise when higher tax rates are dropped.
November 25, 2022
A tracy
You are forgetting the cost of her energy package which we could not afford. Blaming only the BoE is weak and don’t reflect well on your understanding of economics
November 25, 2022
Iāve never claimed to be an economic expert Bill.
The energy package was always the most expensive part of Lizā package however the Telegraph reported on 9 Oct 2022 that ā āFalling wholesale prices offer hope that the cost of the energy bailout will be far lower than feared.ā
I donāt only blame the BoE. I blame Hunt and Sunak frequently for their spending freeze since the October half term holiday, that is chilling the business landscape in the UK more than anything Liz did.
November 24, 2022
No it didnāt Bill. Trading was fine before half term October holiday, then we got Sunak and Huntās changes and bang, slam dunk, a freeze on public sector orders. Now after three weeks of it, businesses for the first time are approaching small business advisors about making redundancies. Before Sunak/Hunt people were worried they couldnāt get staff.
November 25, 2022
A tracy
You are forgetting the cost of her energy package which we could not afford. Blaming only the BoE is weak and don’t reflect well on your understanding of economics
November 24, 2022
Well said Tracy.
November 23, 2022
The Chief Secretary to the Treasury was born on 1st April.
November 23, 2022
SirJ youāre being royally ignored ā¦even the minister replied that youāve mentioned the selling of bonds at a loss before, theyāre side stepping your advice, your expertise, your experience ā cross the floor where youād be appreciated
November 23, 2022
Last year a boy aged 5 was taken by his mother to see Father Christmas. Santa asked the lad what he wanted for Christmas and the boy replied that he wanted a cowboy outfit so he was given the Bank of England. Unfortunately the boy was found to be over-qualified to be the Governor of the Bank.
November 23, 2022
Since the Government now argues that the purpose of HS2 is to increase capacity rather than speed, I would suggest that instead of expensive, un-green high speed trains the Government changes the line to large double decker trains to enable really cheap travel up and down the spine of the country.
We need the train equivalent of Jumbos not Concordes where only those travelling at taxpayer expense will have the money to travel on this new line.
November 23, 2022
O R
Indeed, but if that were to be the case you would need to build some more stations so that greater flexibility could be inserted into the time table.
The whole point of a railway system originally, was to provide a simple time table programme where you hopped on and off at will, and did not have to plan journeys and purchase tickets months in advance to try and make it cost effective economical for the passengers.
November 24, 2022
originally railways were built to move goods including livestock from source to towns. Eventually it was found customers would put up with open, cold coaches (on rails) compared to horse-drawn. Then it became comfortable transport for the wealthy and had they still to provide 3rd class. Also each regional railway had time differences between London for example and say Bristol. Eventually the clocks were synchronised to allow decent timetabling.
November 23, 2022
Clearly government policies are damaging the British economy and the welfare of the population. It was obvious, and probably the intention, that increasing the windfall tax on energy companies would put investment in new projects at risk and leave Britain dependent on foreign energy supplies.
Is the blatant destruction of our future caused by stupidity or conspiracy? Either way it is time to ditch the Globalist leaders and get a government prepared to work for the security and prosperity of Britain.
November 23, 2022
Agreed, but how? We can’t afford to let them continue their destruction for another two years.
November 23, 2022
The selling of bonds at a loss is further proof, in one were needed, that we have a Socialist Government, viz, one that wishes to impoverish the country.
The selling off of these bonds is the equivalent of the last Labour Government selling off our gold at rock bottom prices.
Two even bigger socialist ideas designed to destroy our economy and social cohesion and consequently taken up by our current supposedly Conservative Government, are CAGW/Net Zero and massive immigration.
November 23, 2022
Sir John’s post highlights the question of ” who is in charge ?”. The BofE has no right or mandate to run and influence the economy , equally non-elected bodies that tell the Chancellor what to do . We are experiencing a devastating problem to our lives no matter whether one is rich or poor and we cannot and must not allow this to continue another day longer . It’s the quality and capability of leadership that’s wrong .
November 23, 2022
Who will pay for the extra houses, health care, school places for these migrants Kier? It certainly will not be the migrants themselves in the short term picking fruit, working on farms or serving coffee on circa the minimum wage they will contribute far less in taxes than they get back in services and benefits. Plus they undercut other workers wages and then the tax take from them is even lower too. So GDP per cap declines further as do public services.
November 23, 2022
CBI, having a moan on staff shortages, there’s a surprise. The weird bit those companies, nearly exclusively non-CBI members that nurture, train and demonstrate a career paths donāt have a problem recruiting. Neither do they have a problem paying a real wage for real work.
November 23, 2022
Well said, as usual
November 23, 2022
One quibble; I wasn’t aware that we had a problem with suitable accommodation for those who come here legally. The hotels are being filled with those who come here illegally.
I see that as well as immigration to fill low-skilled jobs that ‘we aren’t prepared to do’ we need more immigration to fill high-skilled jobs. The principal skill required by the CBI is the willingness to work for a low salary.
November 23, 2022
They where in tents in France ..put them in tents here
November 23, 2022
Why is Rishi governing as though you had a tiny majority, John? Surely our conservative MPs support you in this topic, it is clear enough for me to understand? What arguments are used against you to push on with something so clearly damaging to us all?
November 23, 2022
I think, a-tracy, the only argument working at the moment is that the usurpers have upset the boat twice and no-one else must rock it all now.
November 23, 2022
Even if the boats about to hit the rocks! John knows theyāre choking off business, they all must be getting rumblings this week.
November 23, 2022
Well said Sir John, a long one though …
Last week you asked for all of us to keep it short when commenting.
Could I ask you to considering some prĆ©cis too š
November 23, 2022
Sir John
You know more than anyone about government financing.
I suspect few in the HOC were able to follow your speech as the points you made would have made no sense to them.
November 23, 2022
Hello Sir John,
You speak & write with a lot of good sense but is anyone in Government listening? Sunak/Hunt are not thinkers & will always take the conventional approach, as the budget showed. They will both do what they are told to do by their civil servants. We need leaders with ambition, belief in the UK & common sense. When will have a PM, Chancellor & Ministers who take an axe to government spending, including reducing the number of Civil Servants, shutting down Quangos, tackling the massive black hole that is the NHS & the casual attitude to spending money? We can’t overspend our personal budgets year after year without serious consequences, we have to cut back & live within our income. Why does the Government assume it does not have to do the same? We have been living beyond our income as a nation for 20 years; what a miserable failure by every PM, Chancellor, Minister & MP over those 20 years. We need to grow as a nation, not shrink, & that will only happen when the Government cuts spending seriously so it can cut taxes. The refusal to index allowances to 2028 is a kick in the teeth for every worker in the UK. The refusal to make us energy self sufficient, using every possible way to do so is again a kick in the teeth for every person in the UK, the blind adherence to Net-Zero is another one! Why does no one in Government & no MP do some basic research to show what complete nonsense Net-Zero is? CO2 is a beneficial gas without which nothing would grow. Why do you, Sir John, an intelligent man, talk about GW/CC as if it is a fact when it is rubbish? Just read ‘Unsettled” by Steven Koonin, Barack Obama’s former Under Secretary of State for Science, US Dept of Energy & then start asking yourself how have I fallen for this stupid theory. Then start disproving it & writing about it, which could be your greatest contribution to the UK in your life.
Reply I do not write as you say on net zero. Try reading what I write and see what I am trying to do. We have to deal with world governments and their beliefs.
November 24, 2022
I hope SJR will be working with other governments in the world and not world governments, suggesting WEF, Davos,Soros and Bilderberg will be influencing too much our ministers and civil servants.
November 24, 2022
I do read what you write daily & appreciate it. But you talk about the need to reduce CO2 which is part of the net-zero nonsense. Kindly buy & read the book I recommended, send me the bill or send me your address & I’ll buy it for you on Amazon. We don’t have to deal with world government & their beliefs if those beliefs are completely wrong & damage the world not improve it. We need someone to
stand up & stop our Government from damaging the UK permanently.
Reply Try reading what I write. I have always said governments wish to lower CO2 and have pointed out quite a lot of their net zero policies do not do this as well as offering us harm in other ways.
November 23, 2022
I’m shocked that you’re in favour of raising rates any faster than they are. We were told that any rise, when it came, would be “gradual and to the new normal of 3%”.
Now we’re seeing enormous hikes, one after another. People need time to plan for this, to extricate themselves from mortgages etc.
November 23, 2022
XY, the Fed is doing this aggressively, not just to overcompensate, and too late, for the inflation it has created, but to damage other countries’ economies and make the dollar king. The Biden regime is a sinister one, whoever is running it.
November 23, 2022
This report from the House of Lords Climate and Environment Committee is truly shocking in its totalitarian control implications.
https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld5803/ldselect/ldenvcl/64/6402.htm
Many will recognise it as taken from the pages of WEF plans.
November 23, 2022
Thatās a worrying document, its even more worrying thatās its even being considered ā¦why donāt they just go the whole hog and tattoo barcodes on everyone with an annual personal allowance of co2
Weāre not free nor democratic
November 23, 2022
Thank you Mark for bringing this shocking report to my attention. I think the electorate will wake up to the fatal flaws in NetZero before Parliament comes to its senses. Whether that will be soon enough to avoid severe damage is another matter.
November 23, 2022
Had Scotland been allowed an indicative vote then they surely would have voted for independence? This as it would have given them even more leverage to gain yet more unfair advantages and appeasement at the cost of the English tax payers. If they were actually given a real decoding vote I suspect they would sensible vote no again. Certainly if they considered the economic issues, the currency, defence, their share of the debt fully amd rationally. Blair is to blame for this appallingly botched and hugely expensive devolution and very much else too.
November 23, 2022
In the famous to all young girls and their mothers song from FROZEN ‘ Let it go, let it go, let it go !
November 23, 2022
It’s started already with an article in today’s DE on line sowing the seeds for another PM before May. This is as it started the last time a slow drip feed to manipulate the politicians and the public. The rest of the world must stand back with amazement at the psych of our so called controlling classes.
The country cannot have another unelected leaders in charge at both No 10 & 11 Downing Street. The joke has gone on for long enough the people deserve a lot better.
November 23, 2022
@ turboterrier “The country cannot have another unelected leaders in charge” – because it is too confusing to those who have learned their British constitutional law from viewing the West Wing?
November 23, 2022
A union of countries can only ever be a union by consent, by mutual & equal agreement, by the will of the countries people, by reason, by goodwill & respect of customs & traditions, by need of circumstance and by economic sense ā¦.otherwise the union is actually an annexation
November 23, 2022
The Swedes have abolished their Environment Agency and are replacing it with the local authorities and agencies that presumably took care of the rivers, water quality and air pollution before. The UK EA cost over a billion Ā£ pa. 14 years ago, has failed to control flooding and has been criticised for paying large bonuses. It employs over 10,000 and has 3 main regions. It owns several aircraft. This could be a good example of savings and reduction in borrowing.
November 23, 2022
Level playing field
November 23, 2022
It has built an enormous and hideous building in Bristol, spoiling the vicinity and the view. That building must surely account for why so many of the employees are now sitting indoors at their computers instead of out in the country preventing floods and pollution.
November 23, 2022
May I suggest that people sign up for notourfuture.org and sign the pledge, itās rapidly gaining momentum and stands for everything that we are protesting about
November 23, 2022
Still waiting for the government actually to do something. There is a lot of talk and appearing in photoshoots but as yet nothing has been delivered. Nothing.
John, Iām sure youāre at the end of your tether with this whilst being obliged to provide some kind of defence for it. At what point does it make sense to split the party? There would have to be some kind of arrangement not to stand in seats where the other rump Tory party was standing, but how long must the dries be dictated to by the wets? Itās now been since 1990. Things have not only got better.
November 23, 2022
I believe that this government has created a few more peers, quangos and diversity & inclusion managers ā¦part built HS2, gave vast amounts of money in foreign aid and continues to gave vast amounts to the EU …and taken away all hope
November 23, 2022
It is a matter of great regret that Blair’s 13 year old court keeps arrogating to itself unaccountable powers over the political and constitutional spheres into which it should not venture. In so doing, it has once again set itself up above the Crown – to which it has sworn allegiance – and has now stirred up a hornets’ nest of a constitutional crisis for the advocates of Partition to revel in, which the elected Ministers of the Crown must now deal with.
November 23, 2022
A suggestion for a written question to the Treasury
Please detail for each of the next 5 financial years the total amount at par of gilts due to be redeemed by the BEAPFF, and the losses against purchase price due to be guaranteed by the Treasury on the assumption that there are no sales prior to redemption. Is it still the Treasury view that unless QE or QT is undertaken as a matter of policy, the Bank should replace redeemed gilts by further purchases?
QT sales advance the redemption timing, crystallising losses earlier. It may be that they reduce the loss if sales are made at prices above par. Where the underlying gilt has a low coupon, its price may be below par, increasing the loss.
November 23, 2022
A question now being asked by UK citizens sleeping rough (because they have no address they can’t get benefits) is “Why do illegal immigrants get put up in hotels for free while we get nothing?” I don’t think I have an answer to that and I doubt if anyone else does.
November 23, 2022
From the MsM, āHouseholds must slash energy use to defeat Putinā, says Hunt Its the Ukraineās war that is behind the UKās energy crisis
Wrong, Pure smoke screen deflection. It is the culmination of 12 years of refusal of Conservative Governments to ensure they safety and security of the Country by increasing dependants of Foreign Governments to look after us. This came to a head when the numpty Boris Johnson reinforced the idea it was better to ignore the UKās abilities and resources for self reliance, by importing, as it was āgreenerā
November 23, 2022
Interesting to read the comment piece by Alistair Heath in tomorrowās Daily Telegraph predicting an electoral loss for the Tories at the next General Election that will be larger and starker than Mr Blairās victory in 1997.
November 24, 2022
Returning to sewage poured into our rivers:
Wild swimmers are increasingly getting sick from sewage pumped into rivers and seas, according to an environmental charity. Photographer Alexander Ward had no idea he was putting himself at risk when he entered the River Great Ouse in Cambridgeshire last September. He was taking photos of wild swimmers for a project and didn’t realise he had a cut on his leg. After developing flu symptoms, the 38-year-old, from Tattingstone, Suffolk, phoned NHS 111, who told him to go to hospital urgently.
Doctors said he had suspected leptospirosis, also called Weil’s disease. They put him in isolation and gave him antibiotics for two days.
“It was quite scary and since then I have never gone into fresh water again,” he said. “I only go in salt water now and it tends to be at local spots where I know they are not directly close to sewage outlets.