No to a further Brexit sell out

I read in the press that the  government may be planning a sell out to get a “ reset” to our  relationship with the EU.

The government must not  give our fish away at the end of transition next year.We need to take back full control of our waters, cut back the permitted catch to repair stocks, and mainly grant quota to UK vessels and to some foreign vessels willing to land ,process and sell the fish in the UK.

The government must not open our borders to any younger person  wishing to come here and call it a Youth Opportunities policy. It would be more mass migration of the kind a majority of voters oppose.

The government must not align our emissions trading with the EU scheme, meaning higher energy taxes we do not control. It should scrap the carbon taxes and end the idea of a big tariff hike called the carbon border mechanism.

The government must not align us more with EU rules and regulations . It should not out our farms back under CAP type rules  which undermined home market  share of temperate foods when we were in the EU.

 

Brexit means freedom to govern ourselves. Lets try it more often.

The current government out VAT on school fees. It is a bad idea which I disagree with. It is also a rare example  of the government using a Brexit freedom to something it believes in. That’s how democracy should work, with Opposition parties needing to win an election to reverse a bad policy.

The current government also needed the exemption from EU rules on state aids to go rapidly to the support of the steel industry. Being dragged into the lengthy negotiations  when speed was essential could have been a disaster.

The Uk can get an early and better trade deal with the US than the EU if only Ministers would be bolder and more positive.

Our tinely exit from the Eu means we are not jointly liable for the massive Euro 800 bn of new debt the EU is borrowing. That would have been rash and unaffordable given our large national debt already incurred.

 

Labour begins to understand the need to use Brexit freedoms

To Remain Brexit was mainly about trade. They wanted no dilution in our heavily managed trade with the EU and  wanted to keep all the barriers of the EU Customs Union up against the rest of the world. They justified this with a patently wrong theory that you could only trade easily with countries that were nearby, giving them a dodgy model and false forecasts of what would happen post Brexit.  They wrongly forecast less trade and lower GDP as a result, which did not happen. As it happened UK negotiators paid a high price to keep tariff free trade with the EU and tried to keep us closely aligned with the EU business and trading regulations.

In our later years in the EU our trade with the EU declined to under half our total trade. The relative decline and the amazing surge in trade in services with non EU since 2016 has continued this trend. The relative decline will continue in our EU exports as some of our leading exports to the EU, oil, gas, refined oil products and petrol cars are being banned and taxed into extinction. Doubtless what net zero achieves will be blamed on Brexit by Remain.

Now we are out we can bring down barriers with the rest of the world. We have signed the large  TPP Free Trade Agreement which the EU would not do. We have added services chapters to some of the old EU trade deals we adopted as UK trade deals. We proved Remain wrong by renewing all EU deals as Uk ones.

In a later piece I will look at what Brexit was really all about – taking back control. We have  used some of  the opportunities this brings but there are so many more to take up. Intervening to save blast furnaces would have needed EU consent to subsidies which could have caused delays and might have been refused.

Rip off Council and customer friendly shop

Compare my two experiences with bills this April. Westminster Council sent me a Council tax bill for my small flat that imposes a 110% increase on me because I only stay there occasionally when I work a long day and evening in London. It means the only services I use are the local roads and the refuse service. I take my small quantity of rubbish to a large communal container on the ground floor for all the flats which Westminster can easily access. My small amount makes no difference to their collection. I cannot switch Council provider . I have to pay their rip off bill as it would be strongly  enforced,unlike the UK border and laws on migration.

One of the supermarkets I use near home sent me a voucher offering me £9 or 15% off my next shop if I spent £60. I went along and saw they were also offering good extra product discounts to me as a loyalty card holder. I bought  £69.98 of goods, qualifying for £9.35 off selected products as well as the £9 off. So I gained a discount of £18.35 or 26%.

What  a difference. The  shop gave me a big discount to buy things I needed and wanted. The Council mugged me to spend money on many things I do not want and many others I think are a  dreadful waste as well as some necessary public services for others where I am happy to contribute. They sent no warning of their rip off and had  no thought for what I would have to cut out to afford their over the top bill. They like putting out enforcement notices telling you what you have to comply with.

Bank of England at last admits bond sales can do damage

With badly performing branches of government like the taxpayer owned Bank of England it is important to watch what they do more than what they say. Significantly this month they are not selling any medium and long dated bonds, interrupting their disgraceful loss making sales programme. I guess they took this  decision because a volatile  bond  market unhappy about the UK growth wrecking budget and Trump tariffs could tumble on the back of official selling.

Maybe they have now worked out that their announcement of a major sales programme of bonds on the eve of the  2022 autumn budget did help drive the market lower, leading to the predictable LDI plunge caused  by poor regulation of pension investments.

The Bank bought far too many bonds at excessive prices well into post lockdown recovery. It has wrongly been selling off some of the long bonds which have the largest losses instead of just running down the bond portfolio as they mature. In 2024-5 they sent an astonishing bill for £38 bn of losses to taxpayers, swollen by unnecessary sales.

Thank goodness we have been spared at least one month of these excesses. Long bonds are often trading at under half the Bank’s purchase cost given the big hikes in rates the Bank has put through.

 

Nationalisation normally costs taxpayers dear and ends in failure

HS2 our fully nationalised railway has cost a fortune and will never reach  the North as planned. The Post Office sends  taxpayers large bills for its losses and put key employees in prison  based on false charges and a botched computerisation programme.

Today Mr Reynolds, Business Secretary, has total powers to run British Steel, a company owned by the Chinese. So far he has co operated with the steel workers to exclude the Chinese management. Mr Reynolds has no experience of running an industrial business. He has presented no business plan to Parliament and has no announced  budget to pay the huge losses reported for the current business.

I have been responsible in the past as a company chairman for a steel rolling mill and other industrial plants. My advice to Mr Reynolds is

1. Make employee safety and employee engagement your first task.

2. Understand you need more orders for british steel than the Network Rail order. Construction and defence orders need increasing with ways of offering high quality and better value for money. Customers need persuading. They do not owe you a living

3. Understand  you cannot make this work without much cheaper energy. This business has been pulled down by the needless closure of UK coal mines and by the mad pursuit of dear energy. The current nonsense that gas prices are the problem overlooks the painful fact that electricity in the UK is four times the price of gas per  unit of energy. Net zero ideologues think closing steel furnaces, coalmines and fossil  fuel power stations is good news. They deliver us into the hands of China as we need to shift to imports.

So Where is your business plan?How  much will it cost? How  do you avoid spending money now which could go to the Chinese owners? How can you run it against the wishes of the owners? Are you going to force the owners out? What legal liabilities will rest with UK taxpayers?  Why was there nothing in the new Act about the split of the money once you start paying bills?

The  Act is a botched  mess. The draconian powers against the owners are coupled with complete muddle on who will in future be responsible. You cannot be in charge on odd days when you fancy it or see a need to intervene. You need to sort out who is in charge and what the plan is urgently with the owners.

 

 

Steel

So the government has failed to negotiate a settlement with the Chinese owners of Scunthorpe blast furnaces and the nearby rolling mill. The UK does need to keep a steel industry.

The government should buy the whole works and land for a token £1, sparing the current owner closure and redundancy costs.There might  need to be recourse to them if a new operator did need to make redundancies.The Chinese company would remain responsible for its debts and past losses. The assets would be unencumbered.

It should put out to tender a contract to operate and manage the works, accepting the least cost/ best bid.

It should encourage the nationalised Network Rail to carry on buying track from there. It should encourage the use of steel for its  construction  projects to use steel from there. It should use UK steel for all main defence purposes.

 

 

There must be a national enquiry into rape gangs

The government was wrong to water down its proposal of local enquiries in just five towns into the scandal of the rape gangs. They attacked children in the most disgusting way. It is thought this happened in  at least   50 towns and cities.

One of the issues is did senior local Councillors and Council officers help cover this up? They should not decide whether to hold an enquiry, and should not conduct it.

Katie Lam MP spoke for most people when she challenged the  Minister seeking to smuggle the dilution through an almost empty House of Commons. Rupert Lowe has also done good work on this issue.Bring on a proper enquiry with full powers of independent investigation.

 

Labour, privatisation and drift to bad regulation

 

The Labour government 1997-2010

 

The government accepted before and after the election that they would not have the money to renationalise. They saw that in cases like telecoms and electricity the new private enterprise industries were delivering growth, new investment, better  service and lower prices. The Labour movement was keen to renationalise rail, but John Prescott made speeches explaining that spending money on renationalising took money they needed for the NHS and other public services. Over the years that followed both Labour and Conservatives have allowed creeping rail renationalisation. Today the fully nationalised regions struggle to perform as well as the remaining  private sector train companies elsewhere. All fail to deliver the better service , the more attractive timetables and ticket prices, and the big investment needed. A fully nationalised HS 2 has dominated budgets for rail and added substantially to state debt and rail subsidies. It has reminded the country of how badly nationalised projects can miscarry even when they are given huge sums of money and resource to try to succeed.

 

2010-2024   Drift to more regulation and government interference in privatised businesses

 

Under pressure of events, accelerated by covid lockdowns and the inflation of 2022-3, the big transport and energy businesses spun off from nationalised industries have fallen under more and more central control. The electricity industry now has highly managed prices instead of relying on markets supplying cheapest power, with subsidies and favoured access for renewables over gas generated power. Dialling down use of gas to be a back up system adds to costs as the gas stations can no longer run full out spreading the capital costs over more power. The gas industry is restricted by bans on new exploration and delays or objections to extracting more gas from known UK deposits. This forces more reliance on dearer imports of energy.

 

Labour renationalised Railtrack, placing the new signalling and extra track needed back into the queue for public spending approvals. Rail badly needs more customers, following a large decline in goods traffic and continuing attrition of passenger numbers after lockdowns. The government controlled timetables and complex partially controlled fares do not help in adjusting train supply to the potential demand. Shifting more freight from trucks to trains needs more sidings and branch lines into modern industrial parks and a better system for attracting waggon load traffic. Passenger demand is shifting from the reliable five day a week commuter needing peak time trains as more people work part of the week from home. The railway needs to do more with specials for events, holidays and family outings. Nationalised railway managers often find it easier to argue for more subsidy than to win more passengers.

 

Wider Ownership

 

Privatisation was part of the wider ownership movement. Some of the best privatisations were employee and manager buy outs  including National Freight and Tower Colliery. Both of these businesses were transformed by trusting the drivers and miners. The Coal Board thought Tower had to close but it had more than a  decade of successful mining ahead . when owned by those who worked there.  The big privatisations encouraged some employee ownership with free and discounted shares. Allowing more employee participation and co ownership often helps deliver better results by creating a common interest in success.

 

Nationalisation or privatisation – the balance of advantage

 

The UK has conducted a long post war experiment. The 1945-50 Labour government set up a large nationalised economy which was struggling by the 1960s and 1970s. Rail decline led to the Beeching axe on rail lines and services. Failure to find enough steel customers led to the progressive closure of the new works nationalisation had brought. At the point BT was privatised UK telecoms were years behind the US technically, providing a limited and rationed service to an economy hat needed better to expand. Electricity relied too much on inefficient and dirty coal. Gas needed to speed its conversion to abundant cleaner gas from the North Sea. The US with a much larger private sector was richer and growing faster than the UK.

 

There was a wider experiment between the two systems across Europe. The Soviet bloc was mainly  nationalised. It fell further and further behind in GDP per head and living standards. Western Europe made more progress recovering from war damage using US money and private sector finance funding competitive free enterprise companies. By the time the Berlin Wall came down it was quite clear which system had won.  East Germans had long wanted to come west but were banned from doing so . There was no queue of people wanting to go east, and they were free to do so as far as the West was concerned anyway.

 

Some privatisations have been better than others. Telecoms took off once freed. Rail muddled on  as some economic regulation and partial nationalisation got in the way. The issue of the pace of new investment for water was never resolved , with the absence of competition meaning it remained an industry where government set the price and controlled the cashflows. Electricity performed very well until government intervened to control prices, and to require much more renewable power before the technologies were cheap enough.

 

Privatisation for the future

 

The government is discovering that it can raise less in  tax than it wants to spend. It should examine again how a major transfer of liabilities and costs from the public to the private sectors in the 1980s and 1990s greatly eased similar strains on public spending and borrowing. Last year the largely nationalised railways cost taxpayers £33 bn and Bank of England trading losses reached huge numbers. It is time to revisit the benefits of the private sector providing more of the goods and services people pay for. The  public sector trading less could help ease the squeeze again.

 

Government borrowing rates up, pound down against Euro and yen

This year the ten year government borrowing rate has always been higher than the brief spike top rate under Liz Truss. This  is the result of a very bad budget killing growth and an April of the government putting up managed prices, taxes and inflation. Still Rachel  Reeves talks of the disaster rate of 2022 without stating her rates are always higher. She says she has brought stability . She has brought no growth and rising inflation.

The turbulence brought by Trump’s tariffs and the US/ China tariff war sees UK bonds  and the pound falling as well as US Treasuries and the dollar. This is not surprising. The budget and the Spring statement left little  margin in the figures compared to target. Events of the last week hVe probably eliminated the margin in the numbers. Reeves is back to looking for spending cuts and fending off Labour demands to hike taxes more. With thousands of rich people  heading for the exit her revenues will now be squeezed. With