Yesterday’s political cabinet was we were told a review of the growth strategy and where it has got to with its programme.
They had plenty to talk about. The latest polling shows Labour, Reform and Conservative all on around 170 seats, representing a huge defeat for the government. Any election is four years away, but  when polls show a significant number of cabinet ministers not just losing their government jobs but also their seats they get itchy about how bad things are.
It followed on the Bank of England revising its hopeless forecasts for 2025 by halving growth to 0.75% and seeing inflation may rise this year to 3.7%, almost twice target. The latest forecasts may be nearer the mark. Inflation is clearly going to rise, with 5% for Council tax, large double figure percentages for water, above inflation for energy and rail fares. National Insurance forcing up wage costs in April may lead  to more price rises.
The Chancellor killed growth stone dead. The economy grew 1.1% in the first half of the year (2.2% annualised) and zero for the second half. Inflation was at 2% by June and is now rising again. The budget is the main cause of the end of growth. Three months talking the economy down and threatening all manner of tax rises were followed by a tax laden budget which cut investment, led to falling vacancies and will lead to less business and higher unemployment.
The government now faces bad choices. Their own fiscal rules will require more tax rises and or spending cuts to get the deficit under control. The government talks about improving productivity  but has failed to say how. It wants to get more people back into work but dithers over what mix of support and benefit conditionality it will need. Like the previous government it refuses to tackle Bank of England losses. It stupidly overrides the Conservative decision not to give the Chagos away, incurring more spending.
Why did the Chancellor put up spending so much? Why offer big wage awards with no productivity deal?Why keep on recruiting more public sector workers  apart from front line medics and teachers? Why forecast 2% per annum productivity gains with no plans to deliver? Why fail to control costs on the railways? Why propose a big increase in borrowing, putting up interests costs?