John Redwood's Diary
Incisive and topical campaigns and commentary on today's issues and tomorrow's problems. Promoted by John Redwood 152 Grosvenor Road SW1V 3JL

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To ask the Secretary of State for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities, what assessment he has made of the adequacy of top down national housing targets.

The answer referred to is far from helpful. I will be joining with other MPs to promote an amendment to the Levelling Up Bill to abolish these targets

 

The Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities has provided the following answer to your written parliamentary question (75747):

Question:
To ask the Secretary of State for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities, what assessment he has made of the adequacy of top down national housing targets. (75747)

Tabled on: 01 November 2022

Answer:
Lucy Frazer:

I refer my Rt. Hon. Friend to the answer to Question UIN 74588, answered on the 8th November 2022.

The answer was submitted on 09 Nov 2022 at 17:32.

We do not forget

Remembrance brings together so many families in a common grief. The two great wars of the last century touched most families with wounds and death. Eventually victorious against the enemies of freedom and self determination, the UK with her allies can be proud of all those who withstood the struggle.

Both my grandfathers fought in the trenches in France and Belgium as very young men. One was badly injured at Mons. They spoke little of the horrors that we have all seen through film and reconstruction. I used to think I was lucky that both my grandfathers survived. Then I realised most of our grandfathers and great grandfathers survived. Many of those who died were too young to have married and had children. My son was taken on a trip when at Reading School to be shown the short walk between the opposing trenches. He was  very moved when told of the massacre  in the great offensives across  No Mans land by teenagers little older than he was at time  of his visit.

My father left school at 16 and enrolled in the Royal Navy as soon as  he could during the second world war. He  sailed  in the cruiser Royalist in Northern waters and in support of the Italian campaign. He described to me the fear of the U boats stalking the ship. He did meet my mother who served in the Wrens in Portsmouth when his ship put in for supplies. She told me of her time fire watching on the roof of Huntley and Palmers in Reading where she lived before joining the navy. One night of a raid she had to walk home knowing a bomb had hit her own  street, only to discover it had missed her parents and her bedroom. I could understand that feeling more when I stepped out from the rubble of the Grand Hotel at Brighton after the IRA  bombing. You are profoundly shocked by the impact of the senseless violence on those neighbours and friends who did die.

Today is  time to remember the suffering and bravery of family members called upon to do extraordinary things owing to the times they lived in. They put with many dangers and restrictions on their lives.  The vast scale of world war is difficult to grasp because it is so horrific. Recalling what we know of those close to us and to our grandparents and great grandparents  is easier to understand. It is fitting that we do remember them.

 

To ask the Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, what steps he is taking to help support energy-intensive industries with rising energy costs

This answer fails to spell out what targeted help is offered to our struggling energy intensive businesses like steel, ceramics, glass, petrochemicals.  The UK is far from competitive in these areas and becoming ever more reliant on imports.

 

The Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy has provided the following answer to your written parliamentary question (75743):

Question:
To ask the Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, what steps he is taking to help support energy-intensive industries with rising energy costs. (75743)

Tabled on: 01 November 2022

Answer:
Graham Stuart:

The Government is determined to secure a competitive future for its energy intensive industries (EIIs), providing them with extensive support, including over £2 billion to help with the costs of energy and to protect jobs.

The Energy Bill Relief Scheme was announced on 21 September 2022 to provide a discount on energy bills for all eligible non-domestic customers, including businesses, whose current gas and electricity prices have been significantly inflated in light of global energy prices. The scheme will initially run for 6 months covering energy use from 1 October 2022 to 31 March 2023.

The answer was submitted on 09 Nov 2022 at 17:02.

To ask the Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, if he will review the impact of the carbon tax on high energy usage industries in the UK

Our high energy using industries are suffering badly. Carbon taxation by whatever name is especially high in the UK and the government has so far refused to lower it. I will continue to urge them to complete their review and respond more urgently to the cost crisis hitting these important businesses.

 

The Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy has provided the following answer to your written parliamentary question (75744):

Question:
To ask the Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, if he will review the impact of the carbon tax on high energy usage industries in the UK. (75744)

Tabled on: 01 November 2022

Answer:
Graham Stuart:

There is not an explicit carbon tax on high energy use industry. The UK Government and Devolved Administrations operate a carbon pricing scheme, the UK Emissions Trading Scheme. A consultation on developing this Scheme, including a review of the free allocation of carbon allowances within the scheme to support energy intensive industries (EIIs) was launched earlier this year. The Government and Devolved Administrations will respond to that consultation in due course. The Government is committed to securing a competitive future for its EIIs, providing them with extensive support, including over £2 billion to help with the costs of energy and to protect jobs.

The answer was submitted on 09 Nov 2022 at 17:02.

To ask the Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, which new oil and gas fields will be issued with production licences in 2022.

This is a disgraceful non answer. I asked about production licences so they respond about exploration licences. The quango they refer to reports to them and is meant to implement their policy. Ministers have made clear they do wish to see rapid progress on replacing imported LNG with more domestic gas, but clearly the Departmental drafters  are not entering into the spirit of this. 

The Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy has provided the following answer to your written parliamentary question (75742):

Question:
To ask the Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, which new oil and gas fields will be issued with production licences in 2022. (75742)

Tabled on: 01 November 2022

Answer:
Graham Stuart:

Licensing is a matter for the North Sea Transition Authority which publishes all figures and statistics regarding licence awards for oil and gas exploration and development on its website.

While the 33rd UK Offshore Licensing Round officially opened in October, awards for licences under this round will not be made until next year.

The answer was submitted on 09 Nov 2022 at 17:02.

Preparing an Autumn Statement

Time was when a Chancellor prepared an Autumn Statement or budget in secret. He would of course listen to many representations and show interest in the many ideas that come into the Treasury without giving any hint as to which if any he favoured. MPs would be offered chances to voice their favourite requests to an inscrutable Minister.  Indeed, Chancellors took seriously the need for confidentiality, knowing that were they to let slip a Budget secret they would be expected to resign.

In the run up to the Autumn Statement on 17th November we have been bombarded by a series of stories in papers and on the media claiming the Chancellor is considering a wide range of specific tax rises and spending reductions. We have heard of moves  against benefit recipients to increase benefits by less than inflation, tinkering with the triple lock to lower the pensions uprating, eliminating the Enterprise zones, raising CGT rates, reducing pension saving allowances, freezing income tax thresholds for longer, bringing more people into higher tax bands, taxing electric car use, taxing dividends more, worsening the terms for Non Doms, increasing windfall taxes on energy, cutting grant to Councils  and others I may have missed.

I assume none of these stories came from the Chancellor and I have  no idea if any of them are true. I have not seen or heard the Chancellor give any indication of what he might do beyond the very general public statements we have seen..  I do not however think they were made up, so it does look  as if someone inside government who claims to know what the Chancellor is working on is talking too much. They may simply be reporting an unappetising list of options drawn up by officials. Most of these ideas seem to me to be most unlikely to make it to the announcement, given the obvious political difficulties many of them pose. It would be helpful if whoever is putting all this out was told not to do so, as it does not make for good government and it is worrying to the successive groups of people who feel threatened by these proposals.

There is never any briefing that they might cut out needless or wasteful public spending. So far this government far from cutting spending has announced a very undesirable £11 bn extra for the Bank of England to allow it to take losses on bonds it owns which it need  not sell. Surely that should be a first target for the axe. It has announced extra support for emerging economies with the costs of net zero programmes. It is apparently negotiating to offer more cash to the French to assist with border control across the Channel. We would want more proof of value for money before committing any extra cash to help them police their border. Where are the plans to help more people into work and off benefits, so both the individual and the state will be better off? Why not drive for more revenue from oil and gas by switching more of our demand from imports to domestic production? Where are the plans to build more of our own ships, to make a series of small nuclear reactors using UK factories and technology, to grow more of our own food diverting subsidies from wilding schemes to investment in larger scale market gardening?  There have been many more such ideas to grow our revenues and control our costs on this blog.

Just control our borders

Yesterday I joined a call with the Head of Border Force to discuss the extensive use of hotel accommodation and the large  numbers of asylum seekers and economic migrants crossing the Channel. I raised various issues in this call and with Ministers :

 

My constituents want to see some sense of urgency to transform this totally unacceptable situation.

Unacceptable to taxpayers having to pay £7m a day for hotel bills

Unacceptable to genuine asylum seekers caught in a long queue unable to get their case resolved so they can live and work here

Unacceptable that we allow tens of thousands of people at our expense to stay here not working because we do not get around to making decisions on their cases

Unacceptable that we do not change the law to prevent clever lawyers helping economic migrants pursue false asylum and trafficking cases  for too long and with too many appeals

Unacceptable to burden our hotels with people who should either be helped to find appropriate accommodation here or sent back to where they came from. We need the hotels for their intended purposes.

 

  1. When are we going to legislate to close the loopholes?
  2. When are we going to determine claims for people coming from a range of other countries in a timely way, especially those coming from safe countries like Albania?
  3. When are we going to do more to safeguard our communities from any criminal element that may be trying to use asylum cover to come here to  commit crimes?
  4. When are we going to arrest more of the people traffickers? Why is it so difficult to trade them given the open way they advertise their services? Can’t we follow the money?

 

The true history of the bond market

There is a myth about the bond meltdown of September that political spin doctors are busily propagating. To understand the market we need to see that as the price of  bonds fall so interest rates rise. If a Central Bank wants to move the long term rate of interest up from 1% to 2%, the price of a bond with no repayment date halves. If you lent the government £100 at 1% there would be a fixed promise to pay the bond holder £1  interest every year. If people then want 2% interest they will only pay £50 for the £100 loan, so the £1 of interest is 2% of the amount they pay for the bond.

The spinners  claim the market fell away sharply owing to the Kwasi  Kwarteng decision to announce tax cuts without forecasts. They do not mention the fact that the energy price package was far dearer than the estimated impact of the tax cuts.  They claim the Kwarteng strategy damaged the economy and put up mortgage rates. They need to understand that mortgage and other rates were deliberately driven up by the Bank over a period of many months, as it battled to correct its over lax money policy of 2021. The ten year interest rate started 2022 at 1% and was at 3.5% before the Chancellor spoke. It is at 3.55% today.

I agree the Chancellor should have put all three elements of his growth Plan together – tax cuts, spending proposals and the supply side measures. It would have been sensible to have some forecasts of borrowing and show  interest in keeping borrowing to realistic levels. I do not agree that this was the only or  the  main cause of the falls in the bond markets. The main causes of the rises in rates were the actions the Bank of England and the US Fed.

The bond market was falling well before the Mini budget thanks to the stated intentions of the Fed and the Bank of England to put up interest rates. On 21 September the market fell in response to a very hawkish Fed, where the US was leading advanced country markets down and rates up. On 22nd September the bond market fell again on the announcements from the Bank of England. The market was particularly worried when the Bank announced its plans to get rid of £80 bn of its portfolio of UK government bonds, selling too many onto a falling market. On 23rd September concerns  about the mini budget led to further falls.

The falls were larger on 26th and 27th September . On those days the dominant conversation in markets and media was not the mini budget but the need for many pension funds to sell bonds or shares to find the cash to pay sums to LDI funds. These are funds bought by pension investors allowing them to own more bonds than the fund can pay for by buying bonds through the fund on margin. When bonds fall in price the funds demand more cash payments to cover the losses.

The Bank stepped in to reverse its position of selling bonds into a falling market and announced it would temporarily buy up bonds again to deal with the special selling pressures from the pension funds. the market rallied strongly on the news. By 27th October the interest rate on the 10 year bond was back below the level it had reached the day before the mini budget.

 

My intervention at the Urgent Question on Asylum Seekers Accommodation and Safeguarding

Rt Hon Sir John Redwood MP (Wokingham) (Con): Will the Government legislate urgently to deal with the obvious loopholes in the law that are exploited by people smugglers and economic migrants? And I share the concerns of my colleagues about the use of hotels in my area.

Robert Jenrick MP, Minister for Immigration: My right hon. and learned Friend the Home Secretary and I are reviewing whether further changes to the law are required. One area we are particularly interested in is the modern slavery framework. That is important and well-meant legislation, but unfortunately it is being abused by a very large number of migrants today, and if we need to make changes to it so that we can ensure that it is not exploited, we will do so.