The latest proposals do not help businesses stopped from trading by law. Many of these businesses have a future once they are allowed to trade again. They have no income whilst they are shut. Surely the government should offer them some compensation.

The part time working help needs to be pitched so that it discourages simply making people redundant. If it is much cheaper to sack two people and leave one fully employed than employing three part timers on one third hours then some firms will do that which is bad news for jobs and speed of subsequent recovery.

I want lower tax rates to boost revenues and encourage enterprise. The best way to cut the deficit is to have more growth which will generate more tax revenues and cut government costs on welfare. There are some in government, however, who want ideas to narrow the deficit. So here are a few that would cut the deficit without damaging UK incomes and jobs.

1. Return to charging every visiting foreign truck a fee for using our roads. Many foreign lorries travel on our roads, competing against UK hauliers who usually pay road tax. They often also fill up with fuel away from the UK, avoiding fuel taxes. The HGV Levy to cover this has been suspended and should be reintroduced. Going up to a maximum of just £10 a day, it should also be increased.
2. Collect payments for using the NHS on all visitors from overseas as current rules require. Encourage them to insure or to travel with sufficient money to pay for any Dr and hospital bills. There are too many stories of visitors not being asked to pay for their treatment despite the rules.
3. Cut the VED rate on new cars to stimulate more new car purchases.
4. Initiate an urgent review of the plan for the railways. The government has nationalised the huge losses the system must now be incurring. It needs to design railway services that will be better used in current circumstances with more fare revenue, and with lower costs from running fewer empty trains. It also needs to look at the large investment programmes and concentrate on new technology solutions to providing the capacity that will be needed in the new conditions. Presumably peak travel will be much reduced as more and more commuters work more of the week from home.
5. Buy more UK government needs from domestic sources, subject to proper competitive tenders. This will capture more of the value added and tax receipts domestically on large procurement programmes.

I have today received this letter from the Chancellor:

I am writing to set out our Winter Economy Plan, the next phase of our planned economic response to coronavirus, following the Prime Minister’s address to the nation.

There are reasons to be cautiously optimistic: thanks to our comprehensive and generous response in March, we have seen three consecutive month of economic growth, millions of people have moved off the furlough and back to work, and consumer spending is returning. But the resurgence of the virus threatens our recovery. And now it is clear we have to live with coronavirus for months to come, this means the economy cannot return to exactly as it looked in March and the economic rationale for the next phase of support must be different to that which came before.

So today, we are focussing on dealing with the problems businesses face right now – supporting viable jobs through a time of depressed demand.

Job Support Scheme

Now the economy is opening up, we should target support on those businesses that need it most: companies that have been impacted by coronavirus, and helping them to keep staff on reduced hours rather than laying them off, and to protect people’s wages. Our aim is to protect viable jobs in businesses who are facing lower demand over the winter months due to coronavirus.

So we are launching a new employment scheme – the Job Support Scheme. The company will continue to pay its employee for time worked, but the burden of hours not worked will be shared equally between the employee, employer and government, a third each way. The Scheme is focused on viable jobs, so employees need to be working at least a 33% of the time, and this % will move up over time. The Scheme will open from 1 November, and run for six months until the end of April 2021.

All businesses, not just those who used the furlough scheme, will be eligible. Larger businesses (not SMEs) will only be eligible if their revenue has declined. Furthermore, there will be an expectation that large companies using the scheme will be constrained in their ability to make dividend payments or capital distributions to shareholders, and employees will not be able to be made redundant or given notice whilst on the scheme. Employers will also be able to use the Job Support Scheme as well as claim the Jobs Retention Bonus.

And to ensure parity between employees and self-employed, we will also provide a further grant for self-employed small businesses who used the existing SEISS scheme. Eligibility criteria will be refined to check whether the self-employed trader is still viable and trading and is suffering lower revenues as a result of coronavirus. The grant will match the average grant of the Job Support Scheme, and represent 20% of three month earnings, for November to January.

Greater support for business’ cash flow

We have also acted to minimise the strains on companies’ cashflows so they can focus their resources on supporting employment:

• Greater flexibility for repaying loans through our new ‘Pay As You Grow’ scheme. We recognise that many of the one million small businesses who have benefitted from our loan schemes have never borrowed finance before. That is why we want to give them greater flexibility to repay these loans over a longer period and in way which suits their circumstances. All borrowers will now have the option to repay their Bounce Back Loans over a longer time period by extending the term of BBLs to ten years – this will reduce their average monthly repayments by almost half. On an average £30,000 loan, this reduces the monthly payment from £532 to £309.

Businesses will also be able to move to interest-only repayments for periods of up to six months – or to pause repayments entirely for the same period. It will have no impact on a business’s credit rating if they take up any of those options. And we will also allow CBILS lenders to extend their loans to ten years as well by extending our Government guarantee, providing more flexibility and support for businesses.

• More time for businesses to access our range of loan schemes. Over 1 million businesses across the United Kingdom have already benefitted from over £57 billion through our business loan schemes. But we are giving them even more access to support by extending the deadline for new applications until the end of November for the Coronavirus Business Interruption Loan Scheme, the Coronavirus Large Business Interruption Loan Scheme, and the Future Fund. Along with our Bounce Back Loans, this means all four loan schemes will now expire at the end of November. We will work with businesses and lenders to introduce a new loan guarantee scheme from January 2021.

• Extending our temporary VAT cut for tourism and hospitality. To continue supporting the 150,000 businesses and 2.4 million jobs in tourism and hospitality, we are extending the temporary 5 per cent rate of VAT until the end of March 2021. When we announced this in July, this was originally due to end in January 2021, but we recognise that the tourism and hospitality sector has been severely affected by coronavirus.

• Deferring repayments of VAT to support businesses during this period. Over half a million businesses have already benefitted from being able to defer Q2 2020 VAT payments until March 2021 – worth over £30 billion to over half a million businesses. But we don’t want businesses to face large bills for deferred VAT just as the economy is getting back on its feet – which is why we are launching a new scheme to allow businesses who want extra time to pay back the VAT they owe in smaller equal monthly payments, interest-free, until the end of March 2022. On average, this means turning a one-off £60,000 payment into 11 payments of less than £6,000.

• More time for self-assessment businesses to pay back. Around 1.5 million businesses who pay through income tax self-assessment benefitted from our Self-Assessment Tax Deferral, deferring an estimated £6 billion to be paid in July 2020 to the end of January 2021. But to help them further, we are upgrading our Time To Pay service so that all 11 million self-assessment taxpayers will be able to create a 12-month payment arrangement for up to £30,000 each, and extended under the end of January 2022 – that’s an 18 month deferral.

These measures build on the enormous amount the government has already done to protect people’s livelihoods and support businesses directly, through a package of loans, business grants, business rates relief and wage support already worth £190 billion. Our Plan for Jobs in July set out how we will go further to protect, support and create jobs as we get the UK economy back on its feet.

RT HON RISHI SUNAK MP

Some have expressed worries that the UK will not be free to run its own defence policy once out of the EU fully owing to alleged commitments to a Common European Defence and Security Policy.

The Agreements entered in to make clear this is not the case. The UK has the option to participate in CSDP missions on a case by case basis, but only if the EU offers and the UK agrees. The Agreement is express is saying “without prejudice to decision making autonomy of the UK or of the sovereignty of the UK”. “The UK will maintain the right to determine how it would respond to any invitation or option to participate in operations or missions”

It will also be important to reinforce these freedoms that the UK organises its defence procurement in a way which allows it freedom to pursue its own policy. There is no binding requirement to go for European weapons systems and supplies. Each procurement can be arranged in a way which protects UK independence. It is important that the UK controls the necessary technologies and intellectual property and has potential capacity to make the weapons it might need.

I appreciate you taking the time to share your suggestions about the introduction and benefits of flexible season tickets. The Government recognises the change in modern commuting patterns, the impact of COVID19 and therefore the need to accommodate a more flexible style of working and travelling.

In response, the Department has proactively worked with the rail industry, and is currently considering proposals received from train operators that try to ensure better value and convenience for part-time and flexible commuters and support those returning to the railway.

My Department remains committed to delivering wholesale reform of the rail industry to put the priorities of passengers first. The Williams Rail Review was in the final stages at the outbreak of COVID-19. I view the purpose of the reforms as important as ever, but further work needs to be done now to reflect the impact of COVID-19 on the sector.

We are progressing with this work and are continuing to examine a range of options to reform the railways, including how we can accelerate our modernisation plans in light of a changed post-COVID world.

Monday’s slide show was short and not very informative. They did present a worrying increase in hospital admissions. The rest of the numbers were curiously selected.

There was no published figure for R , no comment on how they are now calculating it and no slide to show how they think it has varied over time, yet R drives their models and much of their thinking. Their argument that we could see a doubling of cases every week for four weeks implies they think R is now high. It would be good to hear more on why they think that and how they compute it.

The first two graphs showed upward trends in daily cases and daily deaths in Spain and France. The two graphs were shown side by side. The death rate scale was one hundreth of the case rate scale, to achieve similar looking graphs. There was no graph for Sweden which followed a different approach to the virus, nor for Germany and Italy where there is not the same growth in cases.

They then turned to England, and changed from daily case numbers to weekly case numbers, meaning higher figures. Their speculation over future trends was then revealed with a demonstration of a big surge in cases were they to double every week for four weeks.

It would be good to have a proper presentation on the death rate so far,with improved data to smooth out the different definitions used over the pandemic to date. It would be good to know the results of the sample testing of the population over time.

They showed a series of numbers for the proportion of the population that have antibodies which may strengthen their immunity to a future attack. What was odd was the 16 August latest figure was considerably lower than the figures from May/June/July. It would be good to have an explanation of this.

Based on this the government has decided on some further restrictions on social and business life and said they are likely to last for six months. It is time for a proper Parliamentary debate on these matters, to tease more out from the advice and to look around the world at what has worked best to contain the disease and keep economies turning. I and others are trying to get an opportunity to explore the options in Parliament.

I reproduce below the Lord Chancellor’s letter to MPs setting out his new proposals, as I think they are good.

                    A SMARTER APPROACH TO SENTENCING

I am writing to inform you that the Government has laid before Parliament a White Paper entitled ‘A Smarter Approach to Sentencing’.

This paper sets out the Government’s proposals to deliver on manifesto commitments to crack down on crime and protect the public by ensuring dangerous criminals are kept in prison for longer.

Our current sentencing and release framework is failing to give victims and the wider public the confidence they should have in our criminal justice system. Too often the time offenders spend in prison does not match the severity of the crime, with some of the most serious criminals being released after serving only half their sentence.

At the heart of this paper are reforms to the sentencing and release framework in England and Wales, which will see certain sexual and violent offenders serve longer jail time, while new measures aim to tackle the underlying causes of criminal behaviour and improve the rehabilitation and supervision of offenders in the community.

Keeping dangerous criminals in prison for longer

Our white paper sets out plans to make whole life orders the starting point for child killers, as well as allowing judges the discretion to hand out this maximum punishment to 18-20-year olds in exceptional cases (where, currently, only those aged 21 and over may receive a whole life order). We are ending the halfway release of offenders sentenced to between four and seven years in prison for serious crimes such as rape, manslaughter and GBH with intent. Instead they will have to spend two-thirds of their time behind bars, like those serving determinate sentences of more than seven years already do following the legislation we brought in earlier this year. We will also introduce a new power to prevent automatic release for offenders who pose a terrorist threat or are a danger to the public and are serving standard determinate sentences. We will also legislate to increase the time discretionary life sentence prisoners and certain sex offenders must serve in prison before they can be considered for release by the Parole Board.

Tougher community sentences which tackle the underlying causes of crime

The white paper includes plans to make community sentences stricter, better monitored and more targeted at cutting reoffending by tackling issues associated with criminality. More vulnerable offenders who do not pose a risk to public safety will be diverted into treatment programmes to recover from these serious issues, such as mental health, alcohol or drug addiction programmes. This will help them lead crime free lives, ultimately helping drive down reoffending rates alongside strengthened supervision to ensure compliance.

Community sentences will be made tougher by doubling the amount of time offenders can be subject to curfew restrictions to two years for more serious criminals. Courts and probation staff will be given more flexibility to use those curfews to support rehabilitation. For example, by having lesser restrictions Monday to Friday to keep offenders in work, but stricter curfews of up to 20 hours a day on weekends. The robust measures aim to provide strong but rehabilitative punishment in the community.

GPS tagging for burglars

Meanwhile, for the first time, GPS electronic location monitoring will be used to track burglars, robbers and thieves when they are released from prison. Reoffending rates among these offenders is amongst the highest across all offence types, with individuals convicted of theft who reoffend doing so on average five times over their lifetime. The technology will allow probation to monitor an offender’s whereabouts and where appropriate share this data with the police to support them investigating and prosecuting these crimes.   

The move builds on Government’s plans to make greater use of electronic tags to cut crime, following the rollout of GPS monitoring over the last twelve months and plans to begin using so-called ‘sobriety tags’ to tackle alcohol-related offending.

Reducing Re-offending

There is more that we, across Government, need to do to address reoffending. Reoffending weakens public confidence in the criminal justice system’s ability to deal with offenders. It also has a significant financial cost, not only to the criminal justice system, but to wider society. This paper introduces cross-government work underway to develop ambitious plans to reduce reoffending, focusing on employment, accommodation, and substance misuse. An important first step is supporting ex-offenders striving to turn their lives around through work by reducing the time in which they are required to disclose certain convictions for non-sensitive roles.

Alongside this, work is underway to boost education in prisons. Ministers will deliver on the manifesto commitment to develop a Prisoner Education Service, focused on work-based training and skills. It will build on recent reforms that have already enabled Governors to commission education services that meets the needs of their prison populations and local economies. The ability to improve prisoners’ functional, vocational and life-skills is key to support wider rehabilitation and reduce reoffending on release.

Next steps

The Government will bring forward legislation next year to deliver on the proposals set out in this paper.

You can view the White Paper at https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/a-smarter-approach-to-sentencing.

The Prime Minister is right to say he does not want another national lock down. The Chancellor is right to warn of economic damage were the government to impose one.

It appears that the Cabinet is arguing over what is the right balance between encouraging people and businesses back to school and to work, and advice or controls over conduct to seek to limit the spread of the virus.

The government needs to ask itself why it wants more of a lock down, and what purpose will be served. The first national lock down had two specified purposes. The first was to save the NHS which was not ready or equipped to handle an upsurge in CV 19 cases. This problem has surely been solved by the addition of many more intensive care beds and the arrival of the Nightingale emergency hospitals, along with billions of pounds of extra funding.

The second idea was to squash the sombrero or flatten the hump in the graph of cases. No-one said they could eliminate the virus. The terms of the lockdown implied a subsequent increase in virus cases as it came off, but at a more acceptable rate and below much increased NHS capacity to cope. It also meant spreading out the virus outbreak reduced the time to the arrival of a vaccine if one is going to emerge this winter.

Now it appears some are moving closer to the idea that we need to eliminate the virus. That would be great. Unfortunately it seems they think this can only be done by imposing very intrusive controls, doing lasting damage to all businesses that rely on social contacts, and keeping the controls in place for a long time. There does not yet seem to be any country worldwide outside China that has imposed draconian lock downs that has avoided a second coming of the virus after relaxing some of the controls. If one country could do it they would need very tough border controls to stop it coming back in from elsewhere.

Yesterday I made some suggestions on how to stop the current spread of the virus leading to more deaths, by stronger safeguarding for those most at risk. I think it unlikely further controls on social contact either for business or within groups of family and friends will be sufficient to end the virus. Test and trace becomes more difficult as we enter the flu and cold season, leaving many more with symptoms. The rate of false results on tests and delays in getting them and finding the results also makes it difficult to guarantee success in stopping the virus by this means.

I have not lectured people on how they should live their lives or respond to the virus. I think the government needs to repeat clear advice on how the virus spreads, what the risks are and what actions might reduce the risk, and leave more to individuals to decide how they wish to respond.

Dear Matt

       I sympathise with the government’s need to balance the aim of  getting deaths and serious illness from CV 19 down, and to allow recovery of the business activity from the economic disaster of lock down.

        Now that we see cases of CV 19 rising again, with the danger that it will get back into the vulnerable community and cause more suffering and death, can we learn some of the lessons of the first time round?

       I take away from the experience of March and April that it is particularly important to protect the elderly vulnerable to keep the death rate down. Shouldn’t we now stop all visits to Care Homes, and ask people to contact friends and relative by phone, or on line video calls which the staff can help the residents set up?

      Shouldn’t there be a strong regime to test staff in care homes in case they catch the virus without symptoms, to further safeguard residents?  I am glad you are helping the sector with proper protective clothing and stressing the need for strict hygiene regimes.

       We also saw hospitals as centres of spreading the virus. Can we this time identify isolation hospitals or sections of hospitals that can be fenced off against the virus to handle all CV 19 cases, allowing the bulk of the NHS to proceed with the many other life threatening conditions that need treatment without the threat of cross infection?

       The vulnerable in the community should be reminded that their voluntary protection from the virus requires them to  be very careful about social contacts. Friends, neighbours, relatives and local Social Services should be encouraged to offer safe distance social contact and support with on line orders to see them through a further need to observe distance from others who may carry the virus.

      The main emphasis of policy should be on protecting those  most at risk, as we now know the pattern of risk factors making it more likely someone will get a dangerous version of this disease.

        It would also be good to have an up date from your medical advisers on best and preferred courses of treatment, now that much more is known about the nature of the disease and the efficacy of various drugs and treatments.

Yours

John

Margaret Thatcher understood the UK had a bad deal out of our EEC/EU membership. At a time when she was battling to get the public finances under control and to get value for money for UK taxpayers, she naturally expected the same of our EU contributions and budgets. She judged the public mood well. Why accept less spending at home if they were wasting so much of our money abroad?

The official government and establishment was shocked by her wish. They did the usual thing of checking with their official continental friends and gleefully reported back that there was no interest in offering the UK a better financial deal, and the UK would be the only state wanting to press the matter. To even raise it was bad taste which would “undermine our position in Europe” or would “marginalise the UK “

Margaret decided to proceed. She said she would threaten to withhold contributions if they did not take the matter seriously and make a concession. This caused even greater official consternation. They pointed out it would be completely illegal to withhold the money. It was owing under our Treaty obligations, enforced by the clear Act of Parliament making us obey the Treaty provisions. If she did so the UK would soon be found guilty by the European Court of Justice which had complete control over us all the time we were members.

She pressed on regardless. To the amazement and consternation of the official advisers the EU took her demands and possible threat seriously. They offered a generous discount on the bad terms we had before. She did not as a result have to carry out her threat to withhold the money. One woman, opposed by the whole EEC and by much of the UK establishment , saved UK taxpayers billions. It shows how will power and not making concessions is essential to a successful negotiation with the EU.