One of the most notable features of the modern EU is the growing dominance of Germany in its deliberations. This is inevitable as the Euro and the freedom of movement of peoples become central and often all consuming issues. Germany is the paymaster of the Euro and the generator of many of the jobs on the continent that people wish to move to.

UK commentators and media take too little interest in the German philosophy and policy towards the EU. It is critical if we wish to understand why the EU is as it is, and as we assess whether it is the right club for us.

Some say the Germans want similar things to us. This is completely false. It arises because the Germans do want a strong single market, as somewhere to sell their exports and keep their factories in work. However, they want a single market subject to iron disciplines laid down in Germany’s interest. Germans see the Euro as a necessary part of the single market. They see the UK’s absence from the Euro as a temporary and unfortunate delay in getting us inside it. They do not think the UK or any other country in the single market should be free to vary its exchange rate. Having locked themselves into the Euro at a very favourable rate for Germany, they want to preserve that and keep the trade surpluses it allows them to generate.

Germany thinks that having locked most countries into the Euro it is up to the others to struggle to keep up with German levels of efficiency and cost. If another country like Greece or Ireland cannot compete, then it should cut wages to price itself back in. If a country needs to borrow more than the permitted amounts under the EU scheme, they should cut their public spending or put up taxes instead.

Germany is coming round to the view that the EU’s future is for some additional EU taxes like the transactions tax, and in due course some additional EU borrowing. In the meantime they want to see more discipline, and want to see the UK join the Euro and have to face what the others face.To them a single market is a strong set of rules, usually favouring the incumbent large companies. The rules can make it more difficult to innovate and for challengers to compete. They tend not to like “disruptive” competition, but orderly competition to agreed prior designs and standards.

Germany is willing to take some migrants because she is short of new people for the workforce. However, Germany now realises freedom of movement is delivering too many additional people to Germany. Rather than change the policy of free movement, Germany believes other countries should be made to take more migrants instead. Germany does not think the UK should opt out from this either.

The UK’s problem is a membership based on opt outs is counter to the German view. In the longer run the Germans and their allies in the EU will wish to squeeze out or circumvent the UK’s refusal to join in all features of the discipline. As the main continental paymasters of the scheme Germany will continue to exercise disproportionate power in this club of 28 with just one permanent leader. The UK was not a founder member and has found it difficult to control the number of rules or to prevent rules which are unhelpful to smaller competing businesses.

On Friday 13th November I will give a lecture on currency unions, comparing in particular the sterling union and the Euro. The lecture will consider the moves to greater political union in the Euro area, and the position of the UK in the EU but not in the Euro. It will also look at the extent of taxation and transfers within the sterling currency area, consider the new financial settlement for Scotland whilst staying in the pound, and discuss the wider strength of nationalist movements within EU countries. It will also tackle the needs of England.

The lecture is an open public lecture to be held in the Old Library at All Souls College, High Street, Oxford. There should be seats for those wishing to attend. It would be helpful to have indications of interest in advance to give us some idea of numbers. The lecture is scheduled for 4pm.

The junior doctors and NHS management are locked in a struggle over hours, pay and productivity. The doctors complain that they will have to work week-ends and longer hours for less money. The NHS seeks to assure that the proposals do not include wage cuts or unreasonable hours.

At the heart of the row is the government’s wish to see better care at week-ends. People who fall ill or injure themselves at week-ends need good quality care there and then. The figures show that cover is not so good at week-ends, and the outcomes from treatment and surgery are not so good as a result. The aim of the reforms is to have a better balance of medical talent available throughout the week, as well as making sure there are enough doctors and nurses. The  government points out it has recruited more over the last five years, and will doubtless appoint more over the next five. The NHS budget continues to grow.

Mr Hunt is a patient and thoughtful Secretary of State driven by a wish to improve the NHS and to reinforce its best instincts and professional conducts.He has introduced a system of honest reporting  in the NHS, arguing that air safety improved when pilots and crew had to report every incident or near miss so the airline could learn from it and manage the error out of future flights or engineering. The  same is a necessary part of delivering first class health care. When people make mistakes they need to be reported, and improvements made to protocols, procedures and equipment.

The UK has moved on from creating new money to buy government bonds, but it’s still mighty fashionable elsewhere. Sweden has just announced a new programme. Japan lives by it. The Euro area is pumping out new Euros like there’s no tomorrow. Interest rates remain close to zero in the USA, UK, Euroland, Switzerland, Sweden,  and Japan. At the Bank of England the Chief  Economist muses about some future need to create money, impose negative interest rates, and drop the cash so it can be spent. In China the authorities still have scope to cut their interest rates and relax rules on bank credit to stimulate their economy. The economic world is summed up in the phrase lower for longer about interest rates.

Risk averse savers see this as a nightmare world, where they can get practically no return on their deposits. Other savers have made good money out of rising share and bond prices, as the official money created has been pumped into markets and pushed asset prices up. Borrowers have been benefitting from the low rates, with many able to borrow or refinance at low rates of interest for long time periods. The main winners have been most advanced country governments, able to spend and borrow large sums at very low rates of interest.

So how does this all end? Does it end? Is it just the new normal? Crisis low rates imposed in 2009 have been in place ever since in most cases.  If the west is now more like Japan after her excessive boom and bust at the end of the 1980s, we can look forward to more of the same. Japan has had low interest rates and intermittent programmes of money creation for 25 years.

My problem with all this monetary experimentation in the Euro area, Japan and elsewhere is that it does not directly resolve the underlying problem. The main reason rates are low and these overseas economies are weak is the state of the commercial banking system. All the time the banks are weak or are made to be extra cautious by the regulators, there will be insufficient credit growth through the normal channels. If companies cannot borrow enough to expand, if individuals cannot borrow enough to buy new cars, homes and other  major purchases, if the corporate sector is forced to run a surplus by prudent banks  the economies do not grow. Too much credit is a bad thing. Too little credit makes it difficult to grow, stifles enterprise and stops people accumulating assets for the future. The UK banks are now in stronger shape and more capable of financing the recovery. The pity is they were not sorted out immediately after the crisis, and a bigger pity that Labour’s regulators allowed the mega mergers which created RBS and Lloyds HBOS in the first place. Now it’s the turn of other parts of the world to get their banking systems into recovery shape.

I wish to reassure our German friends.  I see no need to impose a charge on Germany to go on selling us so many goods if we leave the EU.

In return for this friendly and comradely act, I am sure the Germans would not seek to impose a charge on us for importing their vehicles, or for selling them a few back.  The Germans know they sell us twice as much as we sell them.

There is no need to pay a surcharge to buy their imports in the form of sending a contribution to the EU budget. We do not have to send a contribution to the US or Chinese budgets in order to trade with them, though they are both  bigger and more powerful than us.

The UK voters will be happy to carry on trading with the rest of the EU on the same basis as today if we leave the EU treaties. We are not seeking to leave to take our deficit elsewhere. We will not want to  seek to find Asian or American sources for goods we currently buy from the European continent.

The day after we leave everything will carry on as before with our trade. The only difference will be that both the EU and the UK will be able to negotiate changes bilaterally to our arrangements, and the UK Parliament and people will have the last say on the line the UK takes in any negotiations. The UK will gain its place on the World Trade Organisation. Both the EU and the UK will remain bound by WTO obligations to keep tariffs down and markets open. The best way of proceeding is to keep in place current trade arrangements until we negotiate better ones.

Germany has made clear they would not wish to face a special 10% tariff on car exports to the UK. We would not wish to impose one, and assume Germany with the rest of the EU would therefore not impose one on us.

Our trade is not at risk from Brexit. Scaremongering by some pro EU people shows how devoid of positive arguments they are to persuade us to stay in.

Too few people in the UK understand just what vast powers the EU already holds over us and the UK government. More begin to understand the power they hold over our borders and welfare policies. This week in Parliament MP s highlighted the growing grip over taxation.

MPs want to get rid of VAT on tampons, as these are necessities for many women. The UK Parliament cannot do this, as the EU controls this and many matters related to VAT.

The government in the debate promised to lobby the EU about the tax, as they are not masters in their own Treasury and need the agreement of the other 27 countries and the Commission to alter this.

When Britain foolishly imposed duties on the American colony that the taxpayers did not accept it triggered a rejection of British authority over those territories. Let us hope that as more people come to see the high costs of the EU and tus unpopular use of wide ranging powers they will also wish to restore our democracy.

I wonder if the EU will give in on this matter, given their wish to keep us in paying their bills and obeying their laws.

If and when  the UK leaves the EU there is no need to accept any EU migrants the UK does not choose to let in. Euosceptics do not recommend accepting Norwegian type arrangements with the EU. We just want to restore UK democracy which means removing all EU bossiness and controls which stop us making our own democratic decisions.

One of the maddest things about our congested road network in the UK is the way the authorities chose to place most of the crucial pipes and cables for water, electricity, gas and telephones under the carriageway and then seal them in under piles of rubble and tarmac. Each time they need to replace or repair expensive roadworks are undertaken, disrupting the highway, increasing the costs of the utility business, and creating tensions between the utility customers as road users and the utility managements.

I am trying to persuade Councils and utility operators to place all  utilities under verges or pavements when laying new ones, preferably in robust and secure conduits with access. We have long since stopped burying the cables and pipes of an office  in the plaster of the walls, preferring to run them in architectural conduits with easy access usually under floors. Why not do the same for our main utilities?

Wokingham Borough has said it is adopting this for its new developments. Thames Water has said it likes the idea. It could be done for replacements as well as for new areas. Once installed the future costs of maintenance, repair and replacement will be greatly reduced. Above all our very limited road capacity will not be so readily reduced by utility works, and fewer people will be disturbed by the ominous sound of a pneumatic drill once again cutting up the highway.

I am taking this up with other  major network providers. It’s a way to save utilities substantial money over the longer term, and to start to cut down on the number of times our roads are disrupted to improve or maintain basic systems unconnected with the roads.

The closures of perfectly good coal burning power stations are coming thick and fast thanks to EU rules requiring their premature closure. The older nuclear stations are also approaching their shut down dates. The UK has lost its normal margin of reserve capacity, and is now close to the point where on a cold day in winter with no wind we will have to import sufficient  power to meet demand. The ability to import is becoming part of the calculation of how we keep the lights on. This is in accordance with the EU’s wish to create a unified energy market across the EU, so all EU countries come to depend on each other and look to Brussels to control their energy policies as a result.

The UK government is well aware of the dangers to security of supply. Some of us have been arguing about this for years, knowing that it takes years to plan, design and build new generation capacity. Last week the government did decide to authorise a new large nuclear power station at Hinkley Point. The investment will be made by a lead French investor and a supporting Chinese investor. UK taxpayers and electricity consumers will not have to put up any money for the planning and construction phases, but the government is going to guarantee a high electricity price once the station is working. This is the price of pursuing a low carbon economy, as the price of gas capacity would be lower.

The nuclear station on its own will not be enough to take care of all the closures and any increase in demand we might need in the years ahead. The UK has to plan for its rising population, and for the EU passion to switch a lot of transport, both rail and road, to electricity from primary fuels. I would like to see the government announce new gas power stations. They should represent the cheapest and easiest way of increasing generating capacity, and may well in future be fuelled by gas found in the UK.

Unfortunately, owing to the decision to rely much more on wind energy for baseload power, any gas or other similar power will be dearer. As the wind farms take precedence when the wind is blowing, the grid cannot guarantee demand to new gas power stations. They are needed for cold days, days of high demand, and days with no wind. This makes their power dearer as well, as the consumers have to pay for excess capacity anytime the wind is blowing.

Once you interfere as comprehensively as the EU has done in energy provision you create difficulties in keeping the lights on, and you make energy considerably dearer. Now the best we can do is a quick fix of more gas generation at a price. Meanwhile industry has been warned that if we do have high demand days with no wind, they will be asked not to use power at peak times.

The Commons considered and passed changes to tax credits On September 15th by 35 votes  as part of the Budget. Last week the Labour opposition highlighted them again, and the Commons voted down their motion critical of the changes that had already been made. Tomorrow I am told we have to consider them again on an Opposition amendment to the Welfare bill.

I strongly support the policy of cutting tax for people, and at the same time reducing the tax credits. It makes little sense to me to take money off people that they have earned, and then to give it back in a tax credit. That is two handling charges and two elaborate bureaucracies to take the money away and give it back. I also accept the policy of seeking to boost wages. This really requires rising productivity so the pay rises are affordable, as is now beginning to happen.

I want people to be better off as a result of all the changes. I want them to earn more, and keep more of what they earn. The government has twice shown it has the votes to put through this policy, which makes sense to a lot of voters. There remain two issues of implementation. By how much should the tax credits be cut back? What is the timing of tax credit changes and how does this relate to higher pay and lower taxes?

I have not myself done the sums. I have urged the government to pursue the policy in a way which means it is always w0rthwhile working, and in a way which maximises the number of people who are better off. The  government should share with us more of its numbers on the pace of these changes.