@john.redwood.official
@johnredwood
The government should resolve in 2026 not to make promises it will not keep.
The government should repair the damage done by broken Manifesto promises. It should start by smashing the gangs and reversing the tax rises on working people.
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New Year’s eve 2025-6
“So pour me another to toast the new year
We need something better, great changes to cheer””
Tonight’s not for sorrows, nor mulling old wounds
Come banish our troubles, lets sing some new tunes
Caught in the present it’s a moment to choose
To look forwards or backwards, to win or to lose
If you find comfort clinging to what has past
This precious moment of hope will never last
Lets grasp the future, riding its unknown ways
Surely that can bring so many better days
The past is well trodden, we know the ending
The future is for changing, shaping, bending
As last year expires, hopes and promises broken
Change things this time , leave pledges unspoken
So pour me another, drink to the new year
Here’s to big changes, something better to cheer
If your life is a drama you can change the plot
If your friends are the actors you can recast the lot
If people around you are holding you back
Tell them you’re on the move , off on a new track
Lets hold on to feelings that drive us to more
Lets find a way to open that closed door
We can stretch for the stars and strive for the sun
We can soar with the wind making life more fun
You are only out of the game when you give up the play
So write some new words so you have a new say
Aim for something better, embrace the best
You may fall short of target but gain from the quest
So cast off the old. Live a new dream
Grab the future foretold. Mine a new seam
So pour me another, lets toast the new year
Here’s to a better, put fizz in our cheer
Believe tomorrow can be better than today
Let the future empower with its new way
Lets change the story from waste and high taxes,
Lets go for growth as austerity relaxes
Lets make our own minds up and set our own pace
The future is only ours, my friend, if it we embrace
Tonight is the night is to put on a new face
So pour me another, lets toast the new year
We need something much better, big change to cheer.
A message for 2026
2026 will determine whether Labour has a future. Its current low in the polls reflects anger and disappointment at how badly it has been governing. This year there is still time for it to change course and show it has learned from a bruising year and a half in office. It should start by going back to its Manifesto. It needs to think of the many voters who are not socialists who either voted for it or voted tactically in ways which allowed it a big win in seats or who stayed at home thinking they could live with its likely impact. They took comfort from the Manifesto.
They liked the idea of smashing the gangs and ending illegal migration. They were relieved there would be no tax rises other than the targeted VAT on school fees and the Non Doms changes. They agreed with the idea of going for growth and creating more jobs.
The collapse of support comes from government reneging on all three of those crucial pledges. The latest Home Secretary talks tough but acts weakly, failing to deport illegals arriving by small boat, failing to intercept small boats or arrest the gangs and boat drivers to stop the trade, The Chancellor has run two budgets as ways to threaten anyone who works hard , owns their own home and saves with yet more tax. Net zero zealotry closes industries and loses us jobs.High taxes lead talent and those with big money to go elsewhere. The way to some recovery for Labour lies with reversing all this.
It is unlikely they will do so. Meanwhile they deter many voters, with the agenda they did not put in their Manifesto. Scrapping many jury trials. Delaying elections. Pushing through unwanted reorganisations of Councils regardless of local opinion. Limiting free speech excessively.
Worse still is the way the Prime Minister spends much of his time abroad giving money, territory and our rights to self government away. People want a leader who puts the UK and the needs of UK voters first, not someone who apologises for our past and seeks for damaging interpretations of international Treaties to make the UK pay.
The Conservative party emphasises its values
Kemi Badenoch has made clear in a recent email to members that she stands for Conservative values. She wrote
“However, the real test of our renewal is not the buildings we work from, it is who we are and who we stand for. The three people we are sending into the Lords this week show exactly the kind of Conservatives Britain now needs.
I have ennobled some of the most resilient and powerful champions of Conservative values.
John Redwood has been a guiding force on Conservative economic policy and, a Thatcherite stalwart for nearly half a century. He has flown the flag for fiscal conservatism longer and more forcefully than almost anyone in our party’s history, and continued to do so even during times the party veered off course.
(Etc Ed)
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Moving closer to the EU will damage growth more, not boost it
The government’s policy of ever closer relations with the EU will damage our slow and stuttering growth more.
It means sending more money to the EU which in turn means putting up taxes further. It is Labour’s massive tax rises to date that have slowed growth, destroyed jobs, slashed vacancies and put up unemployment. Why do more of the same?
It means adopting the higher carbon taxes under the EU emissions scheme, putting up the costs of energy. Far from helping abate the cost of living crisis they talk about, it will make it worse.
It means adopting a version of the EU carbon border tax or tariff, designed to make things we import from outside the EU dearer if they have used fossil fuel energy in their production and transport. That might invite retaliatory damaging tariffs from the US and others.
It means accepting more young migrants from the EU keeping wages lower and taking job opportunities our young people need.
Far from boosting our exports it is more likely to boost our imports and displace imports from non EU. This will not increase our GDP and will help push up the cost of living.
After a partial climb down on high taxes of family farms, we need some more moves to lower taxes
The Family farm tax is very damaging. It was troubling older farmers greatly, threatening splitting up farms and making the less viable. Now some of the smaller family farms have been exempted. Still many small businesses and some of the larger family farms are being attacked by IHT, making it difficult for them to pass them on to a new generation of owner/managers. It puts people off building businesses here in the UK or leads to early closure.
More damage was done to more people by the Jobs tax of the first Labour budget, the hike in Employers National Insurance. As some of us forecast there has been a fall in vacancies, and a rise in unemployment. There are especially acute problems for young people looking for their first job. Putting the Minimum wage up at the same time as the big tax rise exacerbated the problem, leading more employers to cut back on recruitment or to slim their workforces down. The catering and hospitality sector was particularly hard hit, and shops also suffered another blow to their chances of survival. The addition of big rises in business rates, against the government promise of helping pubs and High Street shops, was another unexpected hit when they had been promised rates reform to lower their bills.
The language Labour used in its Manifesto to avoid tax rises on working people and to boost living standards has been blown away by a run of anti growth tax rises, managed price rises, and the overriding policy of dear energy to speed net zero. Many more people are now on benefits, and many more young people are not in training, education or work. The government struggles to define a working person, and finds plenty of people to tax more that look like working people to the rest of us. The Chancellor says she is concentrating on getting the cost of living under control, yet she grants large wage rises to a wide range of public sector activities and allows through rises in energy prices, rail fares, Council tax bills and other public sector activities.
As Labour criticise their leader and examine other options, their attention goes to things that will make the situation worse. Every deal with the EU entails paying the EU more money for no advantage, leading to yet higher taxes. The Erasmus deal costs far too much and will if like the last time we were in it pay for more EU students to come here than it will help UK students to go abroad. The idea of joining the Customs Union would mean putting many more tariffs back on imports to the UK, pushing up prices and making UK business less competitive with dearer imported raw materials and components. They have given far too much of our fish away for 12 more years, preventing the good growth of our local fishing industry. They have still not lifted the ban on getting our own oil and gas out of the ground, which bring us more tax revenue and well paid jobs. They still are wedded to closing down all our petrol and diesel car plants by 2030, which means more closures and job losses soon.
To get the econo0my growing again, to help create more jobs, to get the numbers on benefits coming down will take more than a small tax cut on family farms, welcome though that is. They must reverse many of their bans that stop us making and growing things here. They must bring down the costs of employing people, especially young people, by cutting their Jobs tax. They need to review taxation of small businesses generally and create a better climate to encourage new and growing businesses to stay and flourish here.
The government has carried out one sensible U turn on its farms policy. It says it wants to get back to growth, to controlling the cost of living and to encouraging investment. To do that it needs more U turns on its tax rising agenda. It needs to grapple more successfully with runaway public sector costs. it needs to concentrate on getting many more people back to work, whilst issuing fewer sicknotes for life.
Joining the EU Customs Union – or the Single market – is a bad idea
The Lib Dems invent absurd figures of how much better off we would be if only we were in the Customs Union of the EU. They clearly do not understand that we are in free trade Agreement with the EU meaning we do not have any tariffs on EU imports or exports already so there is no tariff gain from joining. They do not seem to understand that there would be a substantial tariff loss from joining, as we would have to re impose tariffs on all those imports from non EU where we cancelled the tariffs on leaving the EU. We took tariffs off all the things we cannot grow or make for ourselves, and off things needed for UK manufacturers as raw materials and components for their added value production.
The Lib Dems condemn President Trump for putting tariffs on, so why do they want to put more tariffs on our imports from non EU by joining the Customs Union? Why do they support the ruinous carbon border mechanism, a big EU tariff like charge coming soon to markets near us, and soon to be imposed by an unholy Lib/Lab alliance on UK consumers already suffering from rising prices? The carbon border tax will make many imports dearer.
They claim they want to negotiate fewer border frictions for our tariff free trade with the EU. The EU answers that we need to adopt all the extra rules and costs the EU has imposed on itself since we left, and reverse any repeals or simplifications of EU laws we have so far made to all the older EU law we carried with us into a half hearted Brexit. Far from cutting frictions the EU would ensure there are more.
Some say they want us back in the Single market. That means we would automatically have to adopt all the extra rules and regulations they wish to introduce without a voice or vote over the laws they are making. I remember well as Single Market Minister how excessive those laws can be, and also that even as a voting member the best we could do was delay or dilute a bit. The EU always proceeds by excessive detailed regulation of everything business tries to do, making it a high cost low growth low innovation zone. It seeks to make good new ideas illegal to protect incumbents.
Far from adding to our GDP and to our tax revenues joining the Customs Union comes with a triple cost. More money paid to the EU for administering it. More money paid by consumers in tariffs on non EU imports. Jobs lost as business can no longer import materials and components tariff free from non EU. Less trade with non EU as we have to cancel our free trade Agreements made as an independent country.
Facts4eu published their version of this piece with charts showing how the UK grew faster outside the EU than in it, and has grown faster than Germany, Italy and France since leaving.
Who can claim the sword of growth?
This is the text of my Christmas story which had its first reading on GB New last night
Once upon a time not so distant the United Kingdom was in turmoil. Its recently elected government had become very unpopular. They had swept into power offering the fastest growth in the advanced world, but were mired in stagnation. They had promised an end to price rises, only to see inflation near double. They had told people with faster growth they could deliver better public services without putting their taxes up. Instead they had given every one a shock with their first budget heaping more taxes on a hard pressed people, promising them it would be one and done. They then put through a second budget, with even more bad news soaking the not so rich.
Realising they needed to do something the ruling party agreed to hold a contest to see who should be the true leader to sort out the mess. Wanting to appear more rooted in historial traditions, they looked to how King Arthur had emerged as a popular and successful leader all those years ago. They decided on a modern version of the sword in the stone. Only the one who could pull the sword of growth from the anvil of a stagnant economy would be chosen to lead the country to faster growth. They were needed to rescue the struggling Labour knights squabbling around the cabinet table. Adapting the Arthurian words they wrote “Whoso pulleth out this sword of this stone and anvil by entering the growth code is the rightful PM of the UK”. They tried to make their inscribed stone look different to Ed Miliband’s 2015 show stopper. It was so modern they thought, that there was a digital lock on the anvil. Only a leader who was good with a smart phone would triumph in this radically modernised version of how the UK chooses its best leaders.
They decided to say the UK, not England. They recognised that their policy towards the EU and the Republic of Ireland was going to end in Northern Ireland not being under UK rule, but they wished to hold on to Wales and Scotland where nationalist parties were doing better again as the UK government become more unpopular. They saw no contradiction in associating and looking back to the great English legends, whilst themselves wanting to break up England into unloved regions as the EU had always done.
They fell to arguing over whether the code to unlock the sword should require the candidates to reveal a digital ID. They asked if they should have a double or triple lock on the device with an enabling code to proceed to be sent to the smartphone of the candidate. They were concerned that this most important of tasks could be disrupted by a cyber attack from a foreign power. They decided to leave it to candidates to guess what the system was to make it a more difficult competition to win.
Arthur they read had risen to greatness with the help of his special adviser Merlin. Merlin, ably assisted by Archimedes the owl, had trained Arthur for great things. He had turned him into a fish to see the world from a different perspective. He had helped him do the washing up creating chaos in the kitchen. He had assisted him in fighting off the wicked witch Madam Mim. Who was to be the Special Adviser who could help a new hero triumph? How could they defeat the wicked sorcerer, Nigel? Who had the magic power to trigger growth in a seemingly moribund economy? Was Archimedes now displaced by AI? Was Merlin someone they knew? What if Merlin were a Conservative after all? They decided not to go there as it was too awful to think about.
They realised the new Arthur’s education had to be updated. They couldn’t possibly let Merlin turn candidates temporarily into fish. After all they had just given most of the fish away to the French to kill. Worse still their failure to ban the murderous European super trawlers meant they wouldn’t stand a chance of survival if they met one of those during their time swimming in the Channel. They also wanted to avoid all those illegal boats coming across.
There was no shortage of challengers for the task of taking over the huge government they had helped create. Angela strode forward. She had already won the title of Deputy Prime Minister, and fancied her chances as the natural successor. She took up the growth challenge by saying she would build 1.5 million new homes which would trigger so many jobs and delight so many people who could buy or rent a better property. She wielded her not inconsiderable sword to show she would know how to use the true sword of growth. She tried to scythe through layers of planners, quangos and local government bureaucracy to gain the right to build more homes. Meanwhile the government was making it ever dearer to build a home through more extensive regulation. It was putting people off being landlords through rules that were too penal. It had lost the confidence of markets who put up longer term interest rates affecting mortgages. Instead of Angela’s rich volcabulary creating a surge of new homes being built, the builders said it was too dear to build and they lacked customers. So housing output fell and the target of 1.5m homes looked impossible to hit. Angela then fell down over her own housing situation, failing to pay a tax she supported for others when buying one of her homes.
Rachel said there was no need to have a contest for leader, as she was going to ensure by her help that the current Prime Minister did deliver the growth he had promised. Rachel believed that all she had to do was to increase public spending a lot. That should, after all, create more jobs and provide more public facilities. The Treasury told her that she could not just do that by borrowing more, so she was talked into more and more ideas to take more money in tax to pay for her public projects. As the private sector was more productive than the public sector, this meant taking money away from companies and people who could generate growth and giving it to a government that did not know how to. Government had tried spending to grow with its very expensive HS 2 railway, which turned into a cash sink with half the projected line cancelled and the other half so delayed it was no use to anyone.
They had managed to improve half a rail line from Oxford to Cambridge but the Unions refused to operate the trains in a dispute over manning. Rachel became even more unpopular than the PM she was trying to help, and took more and more criticism for things going so wrong. Rachel proved you could not tax your way to higher growth.
Ed was the most popular of the contenders with Labour voters. He knew the answer to growth. It was all a matter of colour. Green was for go and for success. He said he knew how to spend both more public money and more private investment to replace all our electricity generation with wind and solar farms. When asked what we did when there was no sun or wind, he conceded we might need a bit of gas backup. That would need carbon capture and storage, another very expensive investment that brought no direct benefit to customers and taxpayers who had to pay for it. Ed busied himself with closing down our oil and gas industry at home, with supervising the collapse of our petrochemical industry, and closing our blast furnaces that made steel all in the name of green growth and less carbon dioxide. It was difficult to see how that helped our growth and was unpopular with all those losing their jobs. He did get a number of solar and wind projects up and running, but unfortunately so many of the jobs they created were in China as the UK wasn’t very good at making all the things you need for renewable power. Ed had been the leader once, so he thought he could use the Arthurian strapline of the “Once and future King”, though this brought back bad memories for some. Would he go for another promise pledged on a big block of limestone?
David thought he had the code to the sword. Being one of the brighter Cabinet members in his new job in charge of prisons he had worked out that if he let more prisoners out early it would cut the number of embarrassments from officials mistakenly letting them out. More importantly he had seen how enterprising so many of the prisoners were, running successful illegal drugs and contraband businesses whilst in jail. Why not let them out earlier to use those skills to grow the economy? Rachel from accounts could doubtless get their efforts into the growth numbers with one of the many adjustments to official statistics they were using to make things look better. As Deputy to the PM he thought he was on a bit of an inside track. After all he had helped the PM with his main growth policy of giving more powers over us to the EU and giving plenty of money to foreign governments along with the odd island. Surely the PM was right that if we gave lots away to foreigners they would like us more and that must be good for growth.
Andy saw himself as the Wart or young Arthur of the contest. Not one of those sitting round the table with the PM, he pitched for the job from Manchester. He told everyone he had cracked the growth problem for his city by getting access to more of that tax revenue Rachel had thoughtfully snatched from the public. Some unkindly pointed to the private construction of lots of expensive flats that did not all have residents or buyers, but he glossed over these tiresome details. He would repackage what Rachel was trying to do, but just say he would do more of it. He needed to find a place that would elect him as an MP if he was to stand any chance of being PM. He was coy about that bit, as any constituency might take exception to being told to swap MPs when there was no need to.
Wes was the super champ of the tv studios. He saw off the PM’s attempt to dismiss his ambitions to take over, converting the PM’s attack into a chance to show just how much better he was. He took much of the extra tax money raised in those taxes for the NHS he was trying to run. He spent a lot of it on sacking top managers who he thought were getting in the way of spending the money more wisely. That didnt help with the Unions who all had votes. He saw the need to do something about productivity as well as about spending. His trouble was the Labour party did not take so kindly to some of his more market oriented approach to growth and success.
There were also plenty of runners and riders to be the new Merlin. McSweeny had a reputation for wizardry, as he had helped the current PM win the election that had eluded them for 14 long years. He had swept aside Sue Gray, the civil servant turned adviser who had helped them prepare for government. As the PM slumped in the polls some blamed the adviser. Rachel was required to listen to Torsten Bell who wanted to tax the pensioners more by putting up income tax, but letting people on moderate wages off by cutting National Insurance. Rachel and her friends allowed this to be tested out, only to discover people did not like it and saw it as a big break with their tax promises. The true Merlin has not yet revealed himself, so we cannot yet see who he is backing as the true swordsman of growth.
What we do know is what Merlin will be saying. He will be telling his new Arthur that the UK is overtaxed, with too many talented people and companies leaving. He will be saying government spending is out of control, and more people need to work rather than be on benefits. He will explain to his pupil that government has made itself very unpopular by failing to control the borders, and by interfering to close down businesses by driving up energy prices and imposing bans on fossil fuels. Merlin clearly does not work for any of the runners and riders we have seen so far.
The sword of growth is stuck fast in the stone anvil. Only a new Arthur who can provide the magic formula for growth can unlock the digital lock which makes it unmoveable. I doubt any of the challengers above can do this. The UK is desperate for a new PM who loves our country and knows how to run a competent government.
For Jacob Rees Mogg’s reading of this see www.Facts4eu
Christmas
I have posted today my Christmas Eve poem. Tomorrow at 8 pm GB News will be screening a reading by Jacob Rees Mogg of my Christmas story this year. Tune in to watch it. I will also post the text of it.
Feel free to send in what is on your mind as some of you usually do regardless of my topic of the day.
Will Santa come for me? Christmas Eve
Will Santa come for me?
May you all feel the excitement of Christmas.
WILL SANTA COME TONIGHT?
“Will Santa come? Will Santa come tonight?”
“He might. He might.
If you are good, he might.”
“Can I stay up and see?”
“No. He will not come for you or me
if we do not sleep . He’s too busy to meet us all.”
“And will he come for us?
If you go to sleep – he does not like fuss.”
Tonight, by the lights of the tree,
there is, at last, some grown up time for me.
The cake is iced. The wine is spiced .The carrots diced.
The pudding’s steamed. The brandy butter creamed.
The turkey prepared awaits. And yes, I did clean the plates.
The tree is up, the table laid,
the cards are out , though the credit card’s unpaid!
So shall I soon with gifts a plenty
mount the stairs to deliver twenty?
Do I dare to tread the stair?
And will it creak?
And will it make a noise that upsets all those Santa ploys?
I need to know if they slumber before I arrive with my lumber.
If they are still awake what dreams will go?
Or do they know? And is their belief just all for show?
So tonight by the magic tree there is need of more time just for me.
I will wait – and struggle to keep open my eyes
And wrestle with the morality of eating Santa’s mince pies.
My adult mind is full of Christmas chores
The cooking times, and the cards through neighbours’ doors
Drinks with friends to come – but not that cheap red
Which would give me a headache as soon as I got to bed
I was once a child too excited to sleep with a torrent of thoughts about what I might be given
Hoping that it was a toy that could be ridden
Should I peep? –Not more socks or hankies, preferably something to be driven
So could Santa still come for me? Drowsily I dream as if I were eight
Hoping that Santa would not be late
Like every little boy there is of course a much wanted toy
So will Santa come tonight? He might, He might.
If you sleep well and if you believe
Only if you believe. And only if in your family Love fills the hours you will be spending.
It could be the true Santa on the stair
Or it could be someone from an empty chair.
So will Santa come? He will. He will.