John Redwood's Diary
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Early work for the new Parliament – settling the UK constitution

56 SNP MPs will be demanding early action on the devolution of more powers to Scotland. They will be pressing on an open door, as the three main Westminster parties as they call them will want to honour their promises and to get this business out of the way promptly.

I hope the new government will be generous to Scotland in the powers it gives, and will want to add substantial fiscal devolution to the agreed list. The aim should be to let Scotland decide how more of her taxes are fixed and collected, and to spend that money in Scotland. This would all then be removed from the bloc grant from the UK.

To match this the new Parliament must also offer the same opportunities to England. Wales and Northern Ireland could choose how far they wish to go down the Scottish path to fiscal devolution, and how much they wish to stay with the bloc grant and common tax pool approach they currently use. The SNP MPs should see the fairness of England enjoying comparable devolution to Scotland’s, though England will exercise her greater self government through the votes of English MPs sitting at Westminster. The business of England and the business of Scotland are two sides of the same devolution coin, and need to be tackled urgently and together.

The new Parliament should also be invited to complete the unfinished business from the last Parliament to establish fairer boundaries with fewer seats for the next election.

One nation

 

David Cameron was right to talk of one nation after his re election as MP for Witney. The new Parliament  has much to do to reassure the nation and to bring it together after a long election campaign that stresses the differences and accentuates the  disagreements.

One nation is one of the phrases that means several things. Today it has something to tell us about our economic policy, about the stresses on our union within the UK, and about  our relationship with the European Union.

Some interviewers and commentators are already trying to pit Conservative against Conservative in the new Parliament.  They should not underestimate the wish of all Conservatives to provide leadership that can reduce tensions and strengthen our nation. The Conservative party is at its best when it does seek the national interest.

There will be no disagreement about the need for an economic policy which generates more jobs, more better paid jobs, and continues the recovery. There is no disagreement that the rich and successful should pay more, and those in need should receive help from the state. Conservatives also believe it is no crime to be successful , that people at all income levels should keep a good  reward for their hard work and enterprise, that tax cuts for all can fuel more growth. Many voters in England did reject parties that proposed various tax rises and new taxes.

Nor is there any disagreement that we need to find a new settlement for the union of the UK that meets the aspirations of many Scots, and of  the rest of the UK. Only the Conservatives of the major parties spoke of England. As  the new Parliament goes about the task of honouring pledges to Scotland, and enters discussion with the SNP about what they want for Scotland, so we will need to look after England,Wales and Northern Ireland as well. Devolution has to be fair.

Conservatives also strongly believe that Europe is our continent, not our country. The EU should be a set of agreements with other European countries, not an override on our democratic government. We do not wish  the EU to have the power  to prevent the will of the British people being implemented by a UK government on matters as diverse as borders, migration,tax, benefits and the other important issues which the EU increasingly controls or influences.

I would sum up the huge task of this new Parliament in one simple phrase. The new Parliament has to do no less than establish the primacy and good working  of UK democracy. To do so it needs to continue a recovery to bring rising living standards for the many, to find a new settlement for our Union, and to work out a new relationship with the EU which ensures the important issues are settled here in our one nation, the United Kingdom.

Doubtless there will be many arguments on the way, within parties as well as between parties. That is healthy. It is called democracy.

 

The tasks for the new Parliament

I go to London  today in the knowledge that we face a period of constitutional upheaval. The new Parliament has to complete the settlement for Scotland, offered by all three main parties of the 2010 Parliament. It has to deal with the growing powers of the European Union, as the Euro area seeks to complete its political union on top of its currency union. Above all the new Parliament needs to tackle the problem of England.

The General election was mainly fought around the issues of the UK economy and England’s health service. The Labour campaign largely missed the main points that the new Parliament has to settle. The English NHS was not under threat of privatisation and cuts in the way Labour claimed. Labour’s popular offer of a freeze on energy bills was overtaken by tumbling oil and gas prices, and recommended a solution which is likely to make the energy position worse.

The Conservative campaign concentrated on the economy, with a popular offer of tax cuts. Conservatives also mentioned the question of England and the need for a renegotiation and referendum on the EU, though this did not become the main issue of the election.

Today the reality needs to set in. The UK’s union has been badly damaged by Labour’s lop sided devolution policies of the last 18 years, with Labour once again providing a lead in offering a more lop sided devolution in the Scottish referendum campaign which was cross party.  Conservatives have proposed English votes for English needs. The official party position offers England a veto over all English matters. I wish to see a positive power for England MPs to propose and decide budgetary, tax and legal matters that apply only to England ( with Wales and Northern Ireland where the matter is only devolved to Scotland).

Labour and Lib Dem wishes to delay justice for England by a constitutional convention should not be allowed to hold up English votes at Westminster. Nor should England accept just devolution to cities and counties. England herself needs to settle the distribution of the England block grant, to fix her own taxes where they are devolved elsewhere in the Union, and pass her own laws.

As pressing is the need to engage the Euro area in discussion, to ensure the UK is not dragged into their political union, and to extricate ourselves from many powers which have already been given away without referendum endorsement under Nice, Amsterdam and Lisbon. As these Treaties are no longer separate documents, we need to review the full consolidated Treaty and seek exit from its federal controls, or negotiate trade arrangements and other co-operation agreements  in place of the Treaty.

The Greek crisis is revealing that of course the richer parts of the Euro area have to come to aid of the poorer parts. The rich parts have to stand behind the banks of the whole. The UK did the Euro a great service by staying out. Had we been in during the 2007-8 UK banking crash, I suspect we would have brought the Euro down, just as surely as we brought down the Exchange Rate Mechanism. It is now time the Euro area showed its appreciation of that wisdom, by agreeing we should not be part of the many controls and financial arrangements that a single currency area needs.

China’s ambitions

 

On the other side of the world China is emerging as a major economic force. The administration in charge is progressively liberalising the Chinese economy, and bringing it more into the world marketplace. The new Connector between Hong Kong and the mainland permits more foreigners to buy Chinese shares and more Chinese to buy Hong Kong quoted shares.  China is working towards her currency being one of the big five in the IMF’s SDRs, and is out to establish the renminbi as the world’s second largest trading currency after the dollar. The Silk Road projects will spread China’s economic relations into the Middle East, Africa and Eastern Europe.

China under her previous administration showed she could become the world’s largest manufacturer. Her make it and sell it abroad model powered growth and allowed the country to build up large foreign exchange reserves. The  current ten year plan wishes to do the same with services, expanding them greatly. The money China has in reserves will help her build large financial and banking services businesses with global reach.

The west has to respond intelligently to these important developments.  The USA is seeking to construct a trade club built around Japan, her leading ally in Asia. The US will discover that China’s networks will also attract considerable support, as China’s advance is backed by substantial investment cash and a willingness to think big and take the long term view.

Election Day

 

Today is the day for the voters to speak through their votes. I will not be posting about the UK today, until after the polls have closed.

This election is about ending austerity

Labour should know all about austerity. They plunged the UK private sector into the most severe austerity by their large mistakes in 2007-9. Not content with fuelling an irresponsible boom in credit in 2003-7, they decided to make the worse error of stopping it all so abruptly that they brought down several banks. They threw the UK economy into the worst recession since the 1930s. Many people lost their jobs. Incomes were squeezed. Businesses failed or became unprofitable. That’s austerity.

The Coalition have made a start to reversing Labour’s cruel austerity. Many more people are now in jobs, with unemployment down. UK output and incomes overall are now back above the 2007 level before the crash. Living standards are rising again after the sharp fall in 2007-9 and the squeeze thereafter.

Many commentators think austerity is a new word for public expenditure cuts. They need to realise that the bulk of jobs in the UK are in the private sector. 26 million people work for employers other than the state. It was this large majority that felt the full pain of the cuts. Public expenditure in real terms carried on rising in the Labour years, and rose again by a small amount in real terms under the Coalition. There were individual cuts in particular departments and programmes, but no overall reduction.

I am a strong critic of austerity. I opposed Labour’s credit binge and mega bank mergers on the way up before the crash, and I opposed Labour’s clumsy bank regulation and nationalisation which made the crash more intense and cast a long shadow over the recovery.

I want the current economic recovery to continue. To speed it we need tax cuts, not higher taxes. To fuel it we need policies that are positive for business and enterprise, not hostile to success. It was ill judged regulation from the state that brought the banks to their knees and damaged the private sector. It will be allowing people more freedom to set up and grow companies which will power the recovery.

The UK is close to the point now where the commercial banks can finance a recovery without further artificial public sector stimulus. Pursuing more anti bank rhetoric would not be a good idea. Whilst many people may  not like banks, if you damage the banks you damage the rest of the economy. What Labour does not seem to have learnt from its bitter experiences of 2007-9 is if you get the banks wrong, it is other people in many other sectors and businesses that lose their jobs or struggle to maintain their commercial activities. Sometimes politicians have to stand up for the unpopular, and explain to people why the politics of jealousy or revenge may make things worse, not better.

Election rules and postings

On this main part of the site anyone wishing to name individual seats or candidates has to supply a full list of candidates in that seat and comply with election rules. I am deleting all posts that do not conform.

 

What difference will the election make to energy?

Energy policy is Cinderella who should come to the election ball. A combination of EU policy and UK policy first established by Mr Miliband’s legislation leaves the UK with dear energy, and with greater uncertainty over supply. They have encouraged undue dependence on wind energy, and have closed too many power stations that burned fossil fuels. The next government needs to accelerate the new build of power stations. A wise government will cut our dependence on wind energy.

Conservatives have pledged to build no more onshore wind farms with subsidies. Labour, the Lib Dems and Greens wish to press on with more subsidised wind farms. To do so will just make our energy dearer, and less reliable. We will need to build more back up power for the days when the wind does not blow. That backup power will need to be very heavily subsidised, as no-one will build a modern efficient gas or coal station if they are not allowed to run it when the wind blows.

Green enthusiasts reckoned fossil fuel prices would go up, making the extra cost of wind energy less oppressive over time. Instead, fossil fuel prices have just halved, making wind energy so much dearer relatively. This problem means less jobs, less industry and poorer families. It means exporting activities to countries with cheaper energy, not burning less for the world as a whole. It is a foolish policy. I want the election to discuss it, and for voters to vote against all candidates who are pledged to dear energy, more de-industrialisation, and  more fuel poverty.

What difference will this election make to jobs, wages and prices?

The Conservatives have seen the choice for the election as a simple one. Do you want the Conservative team to continue, who have presided over a decent recovery, with 2 million new jobs and now rising real incomes? Or do you want to hand the keys back to the people who crashed the car in the first place? Labour in its last period in government put up unemployment and brought down real incomes with a jolt.

Labour sees the election as being about the NHS, as we discussed before. Drawn into the economy, Labour has now pledged to get the deficit down, though by less than the Conservatives. Labour has pledged to avoid tax rises for most people, and has been imprecise about their public spending plans. Conservatives have been very clear about the overall pattern of spending, tax revenue and borrowing for each year of the next Parliament, but have not published details of how the extra cash public spending they are proposing  is divided between departments.

The polls show either a Conservative government or a Labour minority  with SNP support on a vote by vote basis. The SNP say they wish to end austerity, which they say means they wish to spend a bit more than Labour’s plans, and therefore borrow a bit more, whilst still gradually bringing down the deficit.

So there will be a difference- Conservatives will borrow less and get the finances on a stable and sustainable footing earlier.

The bigger difference will come in the attitudes towards enterprise and the private sector. More than 25 million people work in the UK private sector, more than five times as many as work in the public sector. The left of centre parties all see the private sector as needing more price controls, regulations, taxes and even state control and ownership. They have a range of policies to limit rents in housing, to control energy prices, to increase state control of the railways, to tax the banks more, to tax property and homes more, to tax foreign residents more and above all to tax anyone who is financially successful more.

This approach was tried by Mr Hollande in France, with very poor results. The French economy lost talent and money, the economy stayed depressed when the UK’s grew well, and in the end Mr Hollande had to moderate some of his ideas.

The choice on May 7th is between a policy which is delivering growth, more jobs and rising living standards, and a series of measures which however well intentioned will make the outlook worse.

 

Labour has proposed a number of interventions to control prices in the energy sector, for housing rents and certain kinds of lending. Such controls usually reduce supply and end up damaging those they are trying to help.

What difference will this election make to the Union of the UK?

Everyone agrees the General election is no re run of the Scottish vote on independence. Even the SNP are making it clear they want a mandate to negotiate the best possible settlement for Scotland whilst still being within the UK. On this basis current polls show them attracting some voters who voted against Independence last autumn. It is unlikely Welsh nationalism will make much impact. The majority of Northern Irish MPs are likely to  be elected as unionists.

This does not mean the issue of the future of the UK is off the agenda, or that the next Parliament makes little difference. The next Parliament, it is true, is bound by its predecessor to honour the promises made to Scotland by all three main Westminster parties. These promises are likely to be interpreted in a pro devolution direction by the new SNP MPs who will probably be elected in some strength and may be the third largest party. In contrast the next Parliament is not bound by its predecessor to solve the English problem. Mr Hague as Leader of the House would not  put the matter of EVEN, English votes for English needs, to the vote, as Lib Dems said they would vote with Labour against the scheme.  The new Parliament has a blank sheet to resolve the question of England.

Many in the  SNP accept the justice of England’s case, but their party will doubtless bargain against it in any way they think will help their cause. The Lib Dems have some complex scheme based on votes in the UK Parliament for England calculated by some notional proportional representation, which is unlikely to get support from the  two main parties in the Commons. Labour wants to fob England off with devolution to cities and maybe counties, having no answer to the question why can Scotland chose her own income tax rate but England cannot chose hers? Conservatives have a version of English votes for English issues, which is a start to tackling the problem of England.

The Lib Dems and Labour want to delay justice for England as well as denying it. They favour a long and detailed Constitutional Convention to examine devolution for England, whilst hurrying through more devolution for Scotland with no such consideration. Conservatives wish to press on with proposals for England, after years of examination and thought which has gone into them.

The future of our union will be very affected by what the next Parliament does. As it legislates for Scotland, it is vital it understands the mood in England. Only one party seems to understand the need to do something soon for England. There will be a big difference between a Conservative led government and a Labour led one on the question of England.