The UK has a long and difficult history in its relationship with the rest of Europe. For much of the last millennium UK policy was based on the proposition that we had to prevent a single power dominating the continent, as they were likely to be hostile to us and opposed to free trade. Our need to preserve our right to choose our own political and religious views led us into war against Spain, the European hegemon of the sixteenth and early seventeenth centuries. Our wish to preserve our independence and trade led us to fight many wars against France, culminating in the epic struggle for our own survival and the future of our continent in the long Napoleonic wars. In the twentieth century it was a necessity to stand up to German aggression and dominance. Spain, France and Germany all attempted invasions, and all failed. The Dutch pulled off an invasion by agreement with a substantial part of the British establishment.

If our neighbours had been less keen on fighting for control, or if at times we had been better at diplomacy, we would saved ourselves a lot of blood and treasure. The long and damaging European wars held us  back as well as the continent, destroying wealth and diverting effort.

Since the 1960s the UK has decided on a different European diplomatic strategy.The UK establishment, with some notable exceptions, has decided to allow and actively promote a new European hegemon to emerge called the European Union. This is against the whole run of our past policy and experience, and is a very dangerous experiment. I have no wish to go back to a policy of continuous wars between nation states,  but fortunately the main European countries are now peace loving and respectful of each other’s borders.  I do  worry that this so called cure for these wars   is not the right way to extend and preserve the peace. It is not in the UK’s national interest, and is bizarre as France and Germany would have no intention of invading us if we were outside the EU.  There is danger in the EU developing an aggressive state personality of its own, and an obvious threat to our hard won liberties from placing ourselves under EU control.

Indeed, I think there is clear opportunity for the UK to be independent, and free of wars against major continental countries. The fact that all the major countries of western Europe have at last decided they do not want to fight more wars, and no longer assert rights over each other’s territory means we have that opportunity for peace which does not depend on accepting ever greater political union with the continent. We should seize the moment, and welcome the conversion of our neighbours to the paths of peace. It is far better they beat ploughshares than swords. That peace will be more prosperous and extend for longer if it respects the independent minded nature of the UK. We do not wish the UK to become some forgotten fields controlled  on the edge of  a new European empire.

Whenever the UK disagrees with the EU we are told we are ” marginalised” and will lose influence. It is another case of EU double speak, because history shows it is only when we disagree strongly with the EU do we ever get anything we might want.

Margaret Thatcher’s most public disagreement with the EU was over the size of the UK financial contribution. She gained a new settlement which saved us substantial sums.

John Major disagreed over the Euro and gained us a valuable opt out which we still use to this day. It’s a pity he did not just veto the whole Maastricht Treaty, as David Cameron did with the recent Fiscal Treaty.

David Cameron is demanding changes over borders and benefits. Already we hear noises from the continent that some changes will be possible, though not yet enough to satisfy us. There would have been no offers on these topics at all without the UK expressing disagreement with the current position.

Labour’s approach of agreeing with anything the centralisers in the EU  bureaucracy wanted and then either telling the UK it was good for us, or playing it down as an insignificant or unimportant change was the opposite of having influence. There was  no strategic aim for the UK within the EU, and no successes of this craven policy.

Some in the UK establishment seem to be afraid of Germany, and think we need to be pliant supplicants at the court of Mrs Merkel. I see it as the other way round. The UK’s relationship with Germany should be based on the central proposition that we are a crucial customer for their industry, buying much larger volumes of goods from them than we sell to them. As customer we should be able to tell our supplier what we want and expect to have more of  our wishes met. Our bargaining position is much stronger than the pro EU sell out officials and politicians would have you believe.

Next year could be a decisive year for England and for the UK. There is a lot riding on the election in May.
This should be the year when the business of England is at last on the agenda. After 15 years of one sided and unfair devolution, Parliament must come to a judgement about how to allow England a voice and a vote over her own affairs. England is not willing to see large new powers granted to other parts of the UK without some justice for us. I will continue to speak for England.
This could also be the year when the UK decides it does want a new relationship with the European Union. If the squabbling Eurosceptics can put aside their differences over the pace and extent of change in the relationship with the EU, they can win the election. An election win will mean a renegotiation of the relationship. More importantly it will mean a referendum on whether the new relationship is worth having, or whether we should simply leave the EU and seek to sort out the consequentials once we have given notice. Those who believe there is no chance of a sufficient change to warrant staying in will then have their opportunity to persuade the country to leave. Seeing if there is a deal on offer first is a necessary part of either getting what we want through negotiation or showing the country that the EU is unreasonable and unfriendly to the UK’s needs. Moving straight to an In/out vote as some wish would be a more hazardous enterprise.
Years of dramatic constitutional change have been deliberately undersold to the UK electors. Labour’s Nice, Amsterdam and Lisbon treaties were mighty steps on the way to EU control, presented as minor moves. The devolution settlement was presented as important in Scotland but played down or ignored in England. At the very least the debates running up to the election of 2015 will be a political education on the big issues which remain unresolved, or are left in a state which many English people find unacceptable once they are explained.
I look forward to speaking for an independent UK with a new relationship with the EU, and to speaking for England. A more independent UK could achieve more, be more prosperous, and truer to its history and the beliefs of its people.

I wish the Scottish nurse with ebola a speedy recovery and good treatment. I am glad the UK NHS can help.

The fact that Scotland has to send its first ebola case to England should pause us to consider the claims about the NHS made in the Scottish referendum. Voters were told by the SNP that protecting the NHS in Scotland from unspecified or untrue political  threats was one of the main reasons Scotland should be independent. Campaigners for the Union replied that under devolution the SNP majority in Edinburgh already had control over the Scottish NHS and they therefore could guarantee it for themselves without state independence. The funding formula ensures Scotland gets more money per head.

So it is an irony that a difficult case has to be transferred to NHS England, under the control of a Conservative Secretary of State. It is tribute to England that we can offer these important enhanced services despite the funding formula. Maybe a Conservative Minister is no  bad thing for the NHS after all.

Getting back to work yesterday should have been easy, as the numbers of people travelling to work seemed well down. Fortunately I did not go by train and tube, as Westminster tube station was closed for engineering works, along with the Circle and District lines westbound and a large section of the Jubilee line. Some mainline trains were also still disrupted by the well advertised engineering works that have overrun and caused chaos at Christmas.

I understand the need to carry out engineering works. I understand the aim to do them when the country’s workforce is on holiday, though that disrupts people who want to travel to visit families and friends over the holiday period. This Christmas it seems that engineering works overran Network Rail’s planned times, leaving the railway struggling to meet demand and failing to keep people properly informed of what limited service is available. Once again the railway did not wish to provide a service on the holiday itself.

On Sunday morning I heard a review of the papers by three celebrities on Radio 4. They majored on condemning the appalling lack of service on some mainline train lines, loosely related to the papers they were meant to be reviewing. The high point came when Barry Cryer opined that we needed to nationalise the railways to sort out all these problems! Mr Cryer was apparently unaware that all the current engineering problems are the result of actions and inactions by Network Rail, the nationalised owner of the track and signals. He made no mention of the very highly paid Chief Executive of this nationalised company, a state employee, who thinks being on holiday is more important than sorting out the failings of his(and our) railway to do the engineering works on time and to keep travellers informed of changes to services. Worse still, the audience in the studio clapped his wish to see Network Rail nationalised as some of them are also unaware of our collective ownership and mismanagement of most of the railway’s assets!

As nationalisation clearly is not the answer, what is? In the short term a change of management would be a good idea. Surely the state could hire a better Chief Executive for less money than the current one? Someone with a sense of public service and duty, who would want to supervise when things might go wrong or have gone wrong. Better directions to Network Rail on what is expected, and a vigorous attack upon poor management to get more efficient use of the assets is the least that should happen. Longer term we may need structural changes in how our rail system is financed and managed.

The west has intervened in the Middle East in recent years on the grounds that parts of that area harbour terrorists who might or have taken action in western cities. The intervention builds on a long standing western wish to intervene which has in the past depended more on access to the oilfields and oil supplies of that prolific oil producing territory.

The first priority of a new UK strategy should be to create energy self sufficiency at home, to reduce our concern for and need of Middle Eastern supplies. A suitable combination of new gas and oil production, new technology use of coal, higher degrees of fuel efficiency and thermal insulation and sensible renewables which work when you need them rather than when the wind blows could combine to produce an independent UK within a decade.

The second priority should be to tackle terrorist tendencies at home through better border controls, intelligence led activities against potential criminals, and programmes to engage with those most likely otherwise to seek adventure through violence. Some of this is happening anyway as part of the government’s policy, but the tougher and more intelligent control of borders is an important part of winning.

The third priority is to offer help to those states and groups who wish to promote or support democracy. Much of this entails diplomatic and educational work, offering training and support.

Military intervention should be the last resort and unusual. Rescuing Kuwait from an unwelcome invasion was a sensible use of western force, which liberated the country relatively easily and acted as a warning to other wannabe Middle Eastern invaders. Seeking to become embroiled in Sunni/Shia disputes or in civil wars over what constitutes the true borders of a given Middle Eastern country is neither easy nor productive in most cases.

Many UK leaders and commentators lay great emphasis on the “special relationship”. I agree with them that it is special in two respects.

The long joint history is the first tie. It started well with the plucky story of English settlers establishing the core of the eastern seaboard colonies that were to be the decisive influence on the emerging USA. These associations of kith, kin, and shared values do matter, despite the way these same “English virtues” had to be asserted in new language and with muskets by the settlers in the War of Independence. Both sides are largely at peace with their past. The US can be relaxed about the War of Independence because they won and went on to far greater things. The UK can be relaxed because many of us think the settlers were right to revolt against crass decisions by the British government of the day. We enjoy some reflected glory in what the US became.

The willingness to co-operate, take up arms and mutually support is also what most of these commentators and strategists believe. There is some truth in that. There is a high degree of co-operation between the intelligence and military forces of both countries. The UK has been most willing to assist the US in a wide range of military interventions worldwide in recent years. Whilst the US has been the dominant military partner, the presence of the UK with voice and supporting military capability has been helpful to the US in putting its case worldwide and showing it has friends and allies who share its outlook. NATO remains the bedrock of UK home defence against possible future serious threats, and the US commitment to the NATO guarantee is central to strategic thinking. I am all in favour of us working for a strong NATO and developing our joint working on intelligence and military matters wherever possible.

However, the world can change. The US and the UK in the end need to consider their own individual national interests. They are not always the same. The US undermined the UK at Suez. The UK stayed out of the Viet Nam war, which turned out to be a good call, without undermining the whole alliance. The US was not willing to back the UK against Argentina over the Falklands, trying to pose as a peace making friend of both countries when Argentina had violated international law and trodden on the UK’s interests and duties to the islanders. The USA did not enter the 2nd World War as a fighting ally of the UK until late 1941, and had been an even later entrant to the Great War of 1914-18. The UK needs to remember its history and make sure it has its own capability to defend our interests overseas and our own islands when need arises.

Sometimes people say all is well if the Prime Minister has a strong relationship with the President. Again history should lead to some shading of this view. Margaret Thatcher’s relationship with Mr Reagan was very good, but it did not produce US military or diplomatic support over the Falklands. Churchill’s relations with the White House were actively cultivated but it did not produce the early and strong military support he needed. Mr Cameron’s relationship with Mr Obama is as far as I know a good one, but this President has a different view of our shared history and a wish to reorient the US more towards the Pacific where the UK can offer less help.

All the time the US State department holds the view that the UK should get on with submitting itself to the EU to be of more help in the councils of Brussels to the US, the more the relationship will have its strains. The USA, proud of its own hard won independence, needs to grasp just how strongly many UK citizens oppose the idea of losing our independence to the EU.

Some pro EU people I n the UK make out the UK would need to become more dependent on the US if we left the EU. It appears that the choice is rather different to that. We either become more dependent on both the EU and USA, or we become more independent of both. From my reading of history and based on my instincts I think we need to be more independent of both, capable of defending ourselves if need arises.

This morning brought a classic case of BBC failure to interview well, thanks to the absence of a BBC England. The Today programme had as its main political guest Liz Truss, acting in her capacity as England’s rural affairs and rural economy Minister. After wasting the first couple of questions on a definition of productivity as the interviewer clearly thought his audience not up to that (why not just briefly describe it if worried), he asked her a couple of questions on broadband in Aberdeen. I guess he thought that would provide “regional” balance. The trouble is Aberdeen is neither rural nor English so it was nothing to do with Liz Truss who understandably seemed at a bit of a loss to know where to begin to explain the constitution to the Today programme.

If the Today programme wishes to explore their allegation of poor broadband installation in Aberdeen then they could invite on a Scottish Minister responsible for Scottish development and the urban economy, or could explore with the Culture and media Secretary whether devolution is getting in the way of spreading broadband in parts of Scotland, where responsibilities are different. Instead, once again England was short changed by not getting a proper interview of the English Minister on England’s rural economy.

Once even more powers are devolved to Scotland the Today programme and other BBC UK programmes need to make a decision. Either they have to set up an English programme where all matters can be discussed that relate to England as they have for Scotland with BBC Scotland, or they have to allocate slots in UK programmes to English only issues and be prepared to explore properly as if there were a BBC England. Today’s interview was just one of many which fails to give England the scrutiny and treatment it deserves, and misunderstands how we are governed in a devolved country.

Perhaps the Today programme should begin with an item exploring Englishness and England’s issues, to explain to its producers how devolution works.

UK politics used to be dominated by the balance of payments figures. Governments would urge us to buy British, and to export to keep our jobs and maintain our living standards. Oppositions would pore over the small print of the monthly balance of payments figures, highlighting every weakness and warning of dire economic events to come if the figures were lacking in some respect.

In recent years under Labour and under the coalition the country has run large balance of payments current account deficits, importing more than it exports, with no apparent damage being done. So what has changed? Is this sustainable?

The main thing that has changed is the UK is now firmly wedded to having its own currency with a freely floating exchange rate. If we had surrendered the pound for the Euro we would have to put ourselves through tough austerity programmes to cut personal incomes, to curb our appetite for imports. That is exactly what happened in Greece and Spain, where they had substantial wage cuts in cash terms as one of the main weapons to correct their balance of payments deficit.

If we had kept to a managed exchange rate as we had in the 1960s and again under the Exchange Rate Mechanism then we would have to increase interest rates in an effort to hold up the value of the pound. This too would have enforced a kind of austerity on the country, hitting borrowers who are in the majority including the government. As rates rise so people with borrowings can afford fewer imports, and foreigners find it more attractive to deposit money and invest in the UK. Usually defending the pound proved to be both damaging and ultimately self defeating, as Labour discovered with their devaluation of the pound from $4 to $2.80 in 1949, and from $2.80 to $2.40 in 1967. In 1976 the pound fell to $1.63 under Labour as part of the IMF crisis. The devaluations then did cut UK living standards, making imports dearer and exports cheaper, to correct the balance of payments. It fell to $1.03 at its worst point under the Conservatives, but rallied strongly as more internal discipline was asserted over budgets.

So how does it work when you have a floating rate? In part it works by covert devaluation, making exports cheaper and imports dearer, as part of the adjustment. However, as we have seen, the pound has not fallen enough to correct the current account. It turns out the UK has been able to finance a current account deficit quite easily so far.

This happens by several means. Foreign buyers emerge who want to buy UK existing assets from UK people, government and companies who wish to spend more than they earn. Foreign investors also want to buy new assets which we produce to sell to them. I have commented before on the UK model of building lots of expensive flats in London to sell to foreign buyers, which has become one of our leading export industries rather like Germany selling such people top end cars. Our exports show up here in the investment flows, not the current account. Individuals and the UK government can also borrow from abroad to sustain higher consumption and investment. Some foreigners just want to deposit money in the UK banking system which helps finance us.

The present level of the current account deficit will doubtless generate both changes in the exchange rate and further substantial inflows of money from overseas. When considering changes to the exchange rate they are not necessarily all one way, as the relative valuations of paper currencies depends on considering the policies of both governments involved. The Japanese authorities and some in the Euro area wish to lower their exchange rate as a matter of policy.

In a rare moment of frankness, Permanent Secretary Dame Lucy was heard setting out some of her innermost thoughts about the current political situation to a colleague as we run up to the election. As a senior civil servant she is pondering how to prepare for the next government after May and did not know that one of my sources was recording her every word. Here is the gist of what she said:

“As you know, the civil service must prepare for every eventuality after an election. We normally prepare a detailed brief setting out the issues and requirements of the most likely next government, and a lesser brief on the manifesto of the main rival. We do not normally pay more than passing reference to the views of the other parties in a General Election.

This time may be different. If the current polls are to be believed and if they do not change much over the next few weeks, the electorate may decide to decline any party a majority, and indeed may decline any likely combination of two parties a majority. In such circumstances it is beholden on us, the official government, to ensure stability and continuity of policy, and to seek to help politicians of good will to form a majority to see through the necessary conduct of orderly business.

In such a situation We will need to remind those trying to form a coalition or other informal arrangement for a majority that they do not have the necessary strength or authority to undertake major constitutional change based on a balanced Parliament. According to current polls it seems that those wanting to disrupt our important nexus of relationships with the EU will not have a majority, so we will be spared an agonising attempt to renegotiate followed by a referendum on whether to stay in at all. It is an irony of the present position that the continued support for UKIP is denying the Conservatives victory to hold their referendum. The Foreign Office has anyway carried out a wide ranging study of our current relationship with the EU, explained its complexity and importance, and concluded that the current position is fine subject to a few tweaks on benefits and borders which the Germans are now likely to want as well. It will be important to explain this to any new government.

We may also face the position of an important block of SNP MPs. It is another irony that these socialist inclining candidates may well deprive Labour of a majority. Whoever forms the government will need to remind them that the country regards the issue of Scottish independence as settled by the last referendum. Any group of MPs forming a government is likely to want to honour the terms of the offers made to Scotland during the referendum campaign. We must be ready to assist, whilst pointing out that the offers were not detailed and in some respects were different between the parties. The Treasury will need to do more work sorting out how the new tax system will work, with different taxes being devolved in Northern Ireland, Wales, and Scotland. The most difficult part for us will be to get political guidance on the new grant settlements required by these new levels of devolved tax.
I suspect any weak coalition will wish to be particularly generous to Scotland, as it may need SNP support or abstention to conduct other business.

The issue of England will be raised by some, but the political imperatives are likely to mean deferring a solution as any coalition is likely to need support from MPs from the other countries and is unlikely to see the England issue as a priority or helpful. We should have ready alternative proposals for devolution to regions and cities which may command more support. We will need to caution against hasty moves to strengthen the largest country in the union. .

In such a balanced Parliament there will need to more guidance from civil servants. We will need to be strong in reminding Ministers of their duties under European law, which mercifully now covers so many areas. We should expect more progress in European integration under the new Commission, as they seek to buttress their great advance of the Euro. We will need to explain the realities of being a good European to our new political masters.

Whilst colleagues will have to look forward to rather more work in such difficult conditions, I feel sure we will be able to reverse the recent slimming of the civil service in the years ahead. We will be able to point out that there is far more work to be done when a government is based on several parties, and when the political situation in the Commons and Lords is fluid. Both the EU developments and the need to complete a new settlement of our own Union means much more detailed civil service work, which needs proper staffing levels.

An outright win by either of the two main parties is of course still possible, and we must cover those options, but the possibility of a balanced Parliament offers most scope for the civil service to rebuild and show its importance as the custodian of stability.”