John Redwood's Diary
Incisive and topical campaigns and commentary on today's issues and tomorrow's problems. Promoted by John Redwood 152 Grosvenor Road SW1V 3JL

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Will arming the rebels bring on the Peace Conference?

 

            MPs who have argued with Mr Hague against the UK arming the rebels have been told the purpose of arming the rebels is to provide the leverage on the Syrian government and its supporters and opponents to bring them to a Peace Conference.  This has not impressed the MPs who have heard  this argument.

             Now the USA has decided to arm the rebels we will find out if it does bring all to the negotiating table. Now the US intends to arm the rebels there is no obvious need for the Uk to do so as well. Let’s see if it works. Most MPs do think the answer to the Syrian war is a negotiated peace and wish all involved every success in bringing this about.

Cutting public spending

 

There is still intense debate in Whitehall and Westminster about how to reduce the growth in public spending in 2015-16. Groups of Conservative MPs are bubbling with ideas on how to do it.

The most popular ideas remain cutting Overseas aid, cancelling HS2, reducing subsidies to expensive ways of generating electricity, and cutting the overhead of government.

Some are saying the government should cut the number of departments merging Overseas Aid with the Foreign Office and DCMS with a mixture of Business and Education to save Ministerial and official salaries.

The Green Investment Bank proved to be very unpopular on this site. Maybe they should be  asked to raise the money they wish to invest in their fund from the private sector to save the taxpayer the costs.

Conservative MPs are also keen to put welfare onto a contributory basis so recent arrivals in the UK do not receive any taxpayer financed benefits, and to ensure the NHS charges all people for treatment who are not UK citizens or people with an established right of residence here.  They are also keen to send criminals back to their home country for trial or for imprisonment after trial.

It will be interesting to see how many of these more popular cuts get into the final policy. Many Conservative MPs will also vote against sending free weapons and other military assistance to people in Syria.

A change of Chief Executive for RBS

 

          I support the Board and Mr Hester’s decision to seek a new CEO now who can see the bank through privatisation. The Labour party is making heavy weather of this development, ignoring the fact that Mr Hester is not seeking to keep the job, and failing to understand the need for continuity of management from a new CEO over what might be several years of privatisation and its aftermath.

The Alternative for Germany

 

 Yesterday I met the Leader of the new anti Euro German party, Professor Bernd Lucke. We had discussions in a small group, followed by a public lecture which he gave at Westminster.

He told us that as a German economics professor he went along with the consensus in the 1990s and argued that the Euro was a good idea. They thought the discipline of the Euro would force other EU nations in the currency to control their budgets and to become more competitive, so they could live side by side with Germany at a fixed exchange rate settled and enforced by the  Euro. He took comfort from the No Bail Out clause, which he thought offered a guarantee that member states in the Euro would have to accpet the fiscal and trade discipline, as they would be unable to resort to excess borrowing.

In 2010 Greece succeeded in establishing the principle that a struggling Euro member could indeed borrow more money from the EU and the IMF. Greece also went on to demonstrate that a Euro member could  renege on parts of its debts.  This changed Bernd Lucke into an opponent of the current Euro scheme. He apologised for misreading it in the 1990s, when some of us were warning what a disaster it could be for countries that had not brought their economies and budgets into line with Germany as required by convergence programmes.

He now thinks the troubled southern members of the Euro area should leave the currency union and devalue, to try to sort themselves out. Thereafter he thinks it may be necessary for Germany to leave the remaining currency union, as he thinks it is also a strain on France and the other members.

 He said that most people in Germany still support both the Euro and wider EU integration. Support for the EU is stronger than support for the Euro, and more Germans are now starting to worry about the social and economic strains the Euro scheme is imposing on some members. In particular many Germans agreee with Professor Lucke that there should be no more  bail outs.

His party currently has just 3% of the vote. If it is to make it to 5% to get representation in Parliament under their PR system, he is going to need to get acrosss vividly and frequently the points that the Euro scheme is miscarrying, and that Germany will be expected to pay more of the bills. German audiences should understand this, as after all they paid huge bills to try to get their own ostmark-DM currency union to work in the 1990s. In that case the area joining was much smaller, and they shared a common language and culture. The same cannot be said of Greece, Spain and Portugal. Professor Lucke is a fan of the approach adopted with Cyprus, making depositors and  bondholders pay more of the losses. This has in effect created two different currencies, the standard Euro and the Cyprus Euro. The Cyprus Euro is not freeely convertible if you hold too much of it in the wrong banks, and may be devalued by the authorities when you try to draw it out of the bank.

 

Labour doesn’t know whether to let us have a referendum or not

 

 We learn that Labour is to be told to abstain on the Referendum Bill when it comes before the House. It just shows how little Labour cares about whether we have a UK democracy or not. They do not have the decisiveness  to come and try to vote it down, but nor do they have the wisdom to come and support it. The party that denied us a referendum on Nice, Amsterdam and Lisbon when in office, now does not want to help to give us a referendum on a future attempt to sort out  the totally unacceptable relationship we currently have with the EU as a result of their federalising policies.

The Chinese publish materials on global warming

 

       China, the USA, Japan, Russia, Canada, India and Brazil refused to sign up to new Kyoto style targets or to join a new Treaty about global warming. It has left the Europeans rather isolated on this issue. Now China is to publish a Chinese translation of large amounts of peer reviewed research which questions global warming  in “Climate Change reconsidered” on June 15th. The Chinese Academy of Sciences wishes to make clear it does not endorse these views. It is good to see these matters being debated.

Opting out of EU Justice measures

 

  Yesterday we were left none the wiser about what Labour would do concerning our right to opt out of a large number of Criminal Justice measures next year. They told us in their debate on the topic that several measures we could opt out from were important, but left it unclear whether they would opt out from all and then opt back in to some, or whether they would allow a large range of Criminal Justice powers to pass under the control of the European Court by opting out of none.

      I made the point that we want to opt out of these measures, as we wish to have control of our criminal law here in the UK, not find we are powerless thanks to future ECJ decisions. The potential opt out was the one good thing in the Lisbon Treaty. It is important the Uk uses its right. It looks as if the government does plan to opt out of all, and are still considering the issue of whether any of them are the best way of co-operating in justice matters with the rest of the EU. I urged the government not to opt back in, but to make a bilateral agreement with the rest of the EU on matters where we need co-operation across borders.

The Green Investment Bank

 

          Yesterday I heard more about the Green Investment Bank. It will have £3 billion of taxpayers money to invest in green projects.

          It is called a bank, but it does not plan to have any deposits. It will not raise money in the wholesale banking markets. Its initial plans are to invest the taxpayers money it receives in green projects with a view to making a profit on the investments. Many  of the investments will take the form of loans to greeen projects and companies.  It will be in effect a Green Investment Fund, not a bank.

                 Its idea of leverage is to be a co investor alongside private sector investors, who will help finance larger schemes. Without that it will not do a great deal with just £3bn of investment money in a £1500 bn economy. The fund has not ruled out borrowing some money later to augment its £3bn of taxpayer capital. It is clearly not envisaging anything like the leverage of a typical bank.

                I would be interested in your views on whether this is a good way to spend £3bn of taxpayers money?  If much of it is routed into green projects by loan finance the rate of return is not going to be that good. There are risks in concentrating investments in one sector. There could also be benefits if the fund managers build up an expertise and are the choice destination for interestign new schemes. Its early choice of schemes including a hospital project and a Council waste disposal project mean some of  the revenues of the investments are secured on tax revenues, as well as the investment coming from taxpayers.

Bilderberger plots?

I think the Speaker was right yesterday to allow a question in Parliament about what had happened at the week-end Bilderberg group. It gave Parliament the chance to explain why MPs do not see the Group as some rival power centre or government in secret. The pity was that Ken Clarke  did not deal comprehensively with what did get discussed at the Group, leaving it to Ed Balls to remind us of the agenda of the meeting which is published.

I do not myself hold the Bilderberg group responsible for the EU controls  placed on the UK. All those have been placed there by the UK Parliament following open debate. The chains of the Treaty of Rome were  originally approved by the electors in a referendum. Doubtless many of the people who go to Bilderberg are pro EU types, as it appears  Bilderberg does not invite and welcome vocal sceptics of the EU project. As a private organisation they do not have to balance their discussions.

Ministers who attend such meetings should have to explain what they said and why they went if MPs want to know. I am glad the Speaker allowed that to happen.

The German British Forum and the single market

 

On 6th June I attended the 18th annual conference of the German British forum.  I seemed to be the one Eurosceptic invited to put a different point of view. Most of the participants expressed views which were very positive about the EU in general and the single market in particular. Most wanted to get over the message that they would like the UK to stay in, and regard staying in as crucial for our economic well being and for the trade between the UK and Germany.

There were a few Eurosceptic noises from some of the Germans. They did not necessarily like the idea of a transfer union. Some seemed to side with those in Central banking circles in Germany who do not favour monetary looseness and adventurism. All seemed to think the single market was good for them and necessary for us.

I sought to explain to them why so many people in the UK are no longer happy with our membership of the EU on current terms. I explained the strong feeling that we need a new relationship with the EU without all the rules, regulations and qualified majority votes. I had to accept some of the usual unfriendly comments from a couple of  UK participants.

I stressed that  we do not see the single market as crucial to our trade with Germany. Indeed, I am sure they would want to keep selling us their BMWs and their Mercedes, so a way will be found to facilitate trade between us, even if the UK voters vote to leave the EU. The UK has no wish to impose tariffs or barriers against German cars or other products. Indeed, it would be against international trade rules anyway, even if the UK were outside the EU. We assume Germany would not wish to block our exports to them.

I take an optimistic view about modern democratic Germany and assume they would have no such wish. I asked them at the meeting  to tell me if  they would want to block our trade. None signified they would. There is the added security from the UK point of view that they sell us more than we sell them. Eurosceptics should unite to explain to voters that there is no threat to our trade with Germany if we seek to renegotiate, or if the decision is taken to leave.

I went on to explain why  many of us no longer believe the single market is the guarantor of our trade or prosperity. The idea of free trade around the continent was never fully implemented. Instead the single market brand was used to introduce a very wide range of  new laws and regulations. It means that UK companies have to accept all these requirements, even for good solds in the UK or to non EU countries. Sometimes these EU rules make us less competitive or get in the way of selling elsewhere. The dear energy the EU is imposing is especially worrying, at a time when the US and Asia is benefitting from much cheaper energy supplies.

The single market has also been stretched to give the EU control over our borders, immigration policy and even over parts of our welfare and benefits policy. This is making the single market the problem, not the prize. UK people do not want the EU interfering in these matters, and do not see the benefit from the interference.