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John Redwood's Diary
Incisive and topical campaigns and commentary on today's issues and tomorrow's problems. Promoted by John Redwood 152 Grosvenor Road SW1V 3JL
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My Conservative Home article (unedited version)

April 20, 2024 69 Comments
This century has seen a great growth in the powers and reach of so called independent public sector  bodies. The four main parties in Parliament usually cheered on and engineered these moves. There was a general buy in to the  proposition that experts were better than political generalists, and that you needed to take the party politics out of large chunks of the public sector.
            The  new settlement was always flawed and never adhered to. Whilst the Opposition parties were usually hot to expose any Ministerial interference in these bodies, they were also keen to blame the Ministers when there was a bad miscarriage by them. They clung to the idea that experts are always right, as the evidence mounted that there can  also be wrong or bad experts that can do  damage if unchecked by commonsense and democratic accountability.
            We have seen a long list of these bodies let people down, with hapless Ministers then held to account for the failings. The Bank responsible for the single main task of keeping inflation to 2% presided over 11% and blamed external forces and someone else. The nationalised Post Office imprisoned many of its honest and decent staff and plunged into heavy losses which taxpayers had to pay. Its independent supervisor UK Government Investments looked the other way and left Ministers to explain and rectify. The Water Regulator watched as water companies failed to invest in more pipes and capacity, leaving Ministers to explain how we could clean up our rivers whilst keeping water  bills to realistic levels. The Environment Agency allowed the Somerset levels to flood, damaging farms, before Ministers stepped in to tell them to man the pumps and keep the ditches and rivers  free flowing.
             All of these regulators and nationalised industries have a so called sponsor department which is meant to monitor and guide them. The department needs to know how much they will cost taxpayers, negotiate over money, charges and performance going forward and be a critical friend of the body in government. When I did this job as a sponsor Minister I usually held an annual budget meeting with each of the important bodies to go through their need for public funds, their charging policy, their service quality and their general efficiency. I would often hold a meeting before the publication of the annual report  to  go over what they had achieved and to hear what their report would say. Their leadership was responsible for how they managed the operation, for the outcomes, and for recommending the way to achieve the stated objectives laid down by government and Parliament. I was responsible for reporting to Parliament on their successes and failures, so I needed to know how they were doing.
             Today in the case of a nationalised industry like the Post Office or Network Rail there are three supervisors in the mix. There is Uk Government Investments, there is a sponsor department and there is the Cabinet Office/Treasury complex. It would be good to establish a single lead in each case. It is difficult to see what value UK Government Investments adds, so why not wind it up.
It is strange when we see the disasters at nationalised HS 2 or the failures of the water and environmental regulators that the cry goes up we need more nationalisation and more independent regulation. There is  no evidence that our main nationalised industries have done well and are a model to follow. I will continue to make the case for more choice and private capital in state activities where people already pay for the product or service they use.
             If we take the Uk media sector the large presence of the BBC and the allied presence of Channel 4 as public sector broadcasters has marginalised the UK in the vastly expanding and fast changing media world beyond the UK dominated by the US majors Comcast, Disney, Charter, Netflix and Paramount.  The combined turnover of these big five US media conglomerates is $285 bn compared to just $7bn for the BBC. The largest has a turnover 17 times the BBC.  It is true some of them offer  broadband services as well as entertainment and news, but this is now an integral part of broadcasting.  Non UK BBC, where we ought to compete commercially, has a turnover of just $1.4 bn.  The BBC has a world  non UK commercial company which is tiny in comparison to the US success stories, held  back by public sector financing and regulatory constraints.  We could keep the licence fee and national programmes people like domestically  whilst freeing BBC World to raise its own money and expand its service to compete more effectively with the modern media giants.
              Whilst some people vote for more nationalisation, they express growing preferences for free enterprise US solutions to many features of their lives. They buy more and more US entertainment, shop at Amazon. use Microsoft software, search with Google, talk to friends with Meta  and use Apple devices . The UK and the rest of Europe is falling behind in ways nationalisation and beefed up regulators cannot remedy.

The IMF were wrong. It’s wasteful spending that needs to go

April 19, 2024 110 Comments

The IMF like the left wing parties says there must be no unfunded tax cuts. Like them it does not complain about unaffordable wasteful  spending. Indeed it argues spending needs to go up. Why?

There is so much to be done by getting  a proper grip on spending. There is no need to let the Bank of England lose another £40 bn this week on top of the £49 bn they have already billed taxpayers. It is a needless disgrace.

There is the identified £20 bn of lost public sector productivity the Treasury put in their last plans. Why is it taking so long to get it back? Why do they need to spend to save when the task is to get back to 2019 efficiency levels?

There is the announced sale of Nat West. Why are we waiting? Why are the proceeds spread over three years in the forecasts? That’s another £8 bn. The OBR puts £3.2 bn of the proceeds into 2025-26

The large losses and cash absorption by the railways needs controlling better, with a proper plan to increase fare revenues.£33 bn of subsidy and investment spending is too high.

Introducing a ban on external recruitment to the civil service and public sector admin would help. Getting rid of bad quangos like UK Government Investments and selling off the British Investment Bank would be a good idea. Making a big reduction in legal migration would cut demand for more social housing and public service capacity .

 

 

A football regulator?

April 18, 2024 68 Comments

It is fashionable amongst the political parties and some football fans to demand a Statutory “independent” football regulator. Some fans support such a change as they are critical of some club owners or managements   and think a Regulator  might be able to sort things out for them .

I fear the prospect of an all wise Regulator who would just happen to bring about change in each club that fans would like  is a good dream, but difficult for any appointed Regulator to achieve.A Regulator faces very difficult pressures when Team A claims rival Team B has broken rules and then Team B responds with a counter claim. The more rules there are, the more disputes. Where two or more teams are in dispute any verdict will upset a lot of fans.

Football is a popular sport. It is entertainment. It attracts a large number of rich individuals and some companies that like the game and want to spend their money on trying to build a winning team. Some do make more money out of it by succeeding in getting their team promoted and so generating more revenues. Some make money out of associated property development and retail opportunities using the club assets and brand. Many just spend their money on the costly hunt to transfer talent and then pay mega salaries to retain good people which can  end in financial losses.

The FA is the regulator. They believe there needs to be rules over how much money a club can spend and borrow and rules over how clubs attract and retain talent. There obviously have to be game rules all accept, and rules over how you win or lose in league and cup competitions. It is difficult to see how an independent regulator could usefully change FA rules over most of these matters. The FA itself is discovering that its efforts to regulate club finances using penalties that include reducing a teams points in the league can upset fans and make rivalries more bitter. What is best settled on the pitch ends up being settled by lawyers.

If we do set up an independent Regulator under Statute law there will then be a wish to drag Ministers into decisions. When too many fans become critical of the Regulator the cry will go up for Ministerial interference or for some change of the law.

There is a good case for an element of fan ownership or for clubs  to be established as trusts owned by fans. This would need to be arrived at with agreement or from buy out of the existing owners.  All the time the football model is based on bidding ever higher sums for a small pool of well known players and managers clubs will turn instead to billionaires to help fund their expensive habits.Fans will not have sufficient collective money to pay the sky high prices of the famous.  They then have to live with  that relationship.The   rich shareholder  is well advised to keep on the right side of the fans. The fans offer the team support, pay  high prices for tickets and buy the merchandise.   I do not think politicians should tell football clubs and the FA how to finance themselves. There must be no question of taxpayers bailing out clubs.

 

My Interview with GB News on the Bank of England

April 17, 2024 44 Comments

Please find below my interview with GB News on the Bank of England’s losses:

 

 

Too much money – inflation Too little- recession

April 16, 2024 76 Comments

Yesterday I criticised 3 big boom/ bust cycles that came from Bank action and establishment thinking. In each case they ignored money and credit.

The 1975 inflation high peak followed a doubling of broad money 1970-4 as a result of a badly supervised switch to competition and credit control policy by the Bank.

The 1992 inflation followed a 36% surge in broad  money 1989-92, brought on by the dangerous  European Exchange rate mechanism. IMF figures clocked broad money growth peaking  at 86% when the Bank and Treasury were creating billions of pounds  to try to keep the value  of the pound down to the permitted target. They then saw it plunge to a low of minus 28% when the Bank was busily buying in pounds trying to get the value back up to the target after the inflation sank the currency.

The 2008-9 banking boom followed and created a 66% surge in broad money Q1 2009 compared to Q 12005. Over the Labour years 1997 to 2010 money growth trebled.

The more recent inflation followed 30% money growth 2020 to 2023.

I set out the case against the European Exchange Rate Mechanism before we entered. I urged the government to turn down the Bank and Treasury advice. I explained it could lead  to  excessive money or too little. It led to both. I took the quoted company I led  out of the CBI because the CBI refused to accept ERM membership would be damaging.

In the run up to the crash of 2009 I supported the Opposition in Parliament who regularly  warned of excessive credit expansion and government overborrowing.

This time round I warned against the continuation of QE during 2021-2 as inflationary. More recently I switched to warning against excessive bond sales as recessionary.

Why do the Bank and Treasury persist with boom/ bust policies?

 

 

 

 

 

Service to constituents and journalists

April 15, 2024 36 Comments

A journalist has  asked questions about my service levels as an MP, so I am sharing the answers in case others are interested.

Service to journalists
          I provide a daily commentary on the main issues I am dealing with and matter to my constituents on www.johnredwood.com. I provide a regular update on local Council matters under local issues. These articles can be reproduced, or used as a source of quotes. They cover the most topical matters that are in the news, they offer new news stories not in the national press, and can of course be commented on. I am providing thousands of words a week which I write myself to ensure they are my views. I find it surprising that others, for example, have not taken up the blogs revealing the large losses the Bank of England has already made, the colossal planned losses and how these could be slashed.
           Where I raise these matters in Parliament I often also reproduce the Hansard text of my speech or question. You can assume that where I am raising a big issue on the blog I am talking to Ministers about it, as I do regularly. I do not normally report on individual meetings with Ministers as these are usually best left as private meetings.
         Service to my constituents as Wokingham’s MP
         I am the only MP to provide a daily commentary on my views and actions 364 days a year on my website. I do not just write up the issue but am also taking action to get the view across and to seek improved government response and policy.
         With the help of my two office staff we seek to answer every incoming email and query by the next working day. My staff handle most of the emails and cases  Monday to Friday. I read them and discuss with them ones that pose new issues or problems. We have daily contact with each other on queries and progress.  I answer new queries on Saturdays and Sundays myself where appropriate, reading all incoming.
         I do not undertake international travel and attend Parliament when in session, being on call seven days a week all year round. I live in the Borough, and make weekly visits to places in the constituency to keep in touch with local problems and views.
Knowledge of the parts of the Borough I do not currently represent
         I did represent the northern villages of Wokingham Borough prior to the creation of the separate Maidenhead constituency, so I know Wargrave, Remenham, Hurst, Twyford, and Charvil well as a former MP. I used to live in Sonning, and used to go shopping in Twyford as well as in Wokingham and Woodley. I attend the  rowing at Remenham for the Henley regatta each year. I live in the south of the Borough.
Taking up issues for constituents
          The website shows the wide range of matters I do take up. The crucial ones of public services,  jobs and  taxes  which dominate the website arise from emails, conversations and understandings of my constituents concerns. Sometimes I lead the campaigns, as with the campaign for small business to get an increase in the VAT threshold, the campaign to slash the unacceptable losses by the Bank or England to free more money for the NHS and other purposes, and the campaign to reduce  taxation  for the self employed.  Sometimes I support campaigns led by other MPs. I supported James Arbuthnot for many years over the sub postmasters. I have supported the successful MP campaign to get the government to abandon top down targets to build more homes, leaving more to local decision.

The threats from Iran

April 15, 2024 141 Comments

President Biden changed US policy towards the Middle East in 2020. He pulled out of Afghanistan too suddenly, losing a crucial air base and undermining  his allies. It led directly  to the Taliban taking the country over, after 20 years of the west losing lives and spending huge sums to stop them. He then tried to get a negotiated settlement with Iran. President Trump had negotiated successfully with the Gulf states to achieve their peace with Israel and to try to do the same with Saudi. All agreed Iran was a threat.

President Biden has ended up with worse relations with Saudi and the Gulf states, with OPEC pushing up oil prices by witholding production and now with US forces shooting down Iranian drones and missiles. Iran was always constructing a ring of hostile forces to the west with the Houttis in Yemen now firing on civilian cargo ships, with Hezbollah in Lebanon , Iraq and Syria and Hamas in Gaza.

The UK needs to be super vigilant to stop terrorists gaining access, to continue to work closely with allies to ensure good intelligence

Why do no other MPs want to stop the Bank of England mistakes?

April 14, 2024 132 Comments

The political classes seem incapable of understanding why we have so many boom bust inflationary cycles. I want more MPs to be demanding a change of policy by the Bank so we can have a growth policy with lower tax rates and better funded core public services.

It is no accident or external force which gave us an inflation in 1975. It was the  Bank conducting a policy called competition and credit control badly leading to fast money growth and a secondary banking crisis. In 1977 it was an overspending over borrowing Labour government which ended with a humiliating trip to the IMF to bail us out.

In 1990-92 it was Bank and Treasury policy to put us into the European Exchange rate mechanism which ballooned the money supply backed by PM Major and gave us more inflation.

In 2007-9 it was Bank and Labour government policy to allow commercial banks to lend much more which led to inflation, egged on by high public spending and borrowing.

In 2023-4 the inflation came from Bank Quantitative easing and a big boost to the money supply.

In each case the Bank over corrected  for its errors pushing us into recession.

Why doesn’t the Bank learn from  this string of errors and give better advice?

The Bernanke Report

April 13, 2024 78 Comments

Let’s start with some agreement. I agree the Bank needs to improve its forecasting and the  communication of its findings.

I do not agree that all Central Banks made worse forecasts over covid and Ukraine. Mr Bernanke seems to ignore China, Japan and Switzerland who kept inflation down despite the swings of oil and food prices. Their forecasts remained nearer the mark.

I do not agree that more highly paid people and more spending will provide the answer. The Bank has a lot of intelligent well qualified people. They need to correct their errors and change their thinking. The models need improving, but they have the people to do that.

It would be a good idea for the Monetary Policy Committee to look at the quantity of money being created and the velocity of circulation, and to provide comment, if only to say they have a good reasons to think creating lots of money will not be inflationary or destroying lots of money will not be recessionary so others can challenge this. Those outside the Bank that did look at the ballooning of the Bank balance sheet and money supply and warned it could prove inflationary got the forecast right even if the Bank is still sure they got the reason wrong. It would be better to have this argument around the MPC table. Why did the MPC who think inflation comes from other sources not manage to predict what happened? The MPC itself needs greater diversity of economic thought. Having someone on it who got the inflation outlook right in recent years would be a good start.

It is also a big disappointment that Mr Bernanke did not consider the impact of the waxing and waning balance sheet of the Bank. Decisions about the bond buying and selling need careful consideration as well as the interest rates. Their strong connection to public finances is also important for their impact on the economy.

 

The Opposition needs to understand the problems with UK government

April 12, 2024 168 Comments

The UK public sector is letting many people down and upsetting a lot of voters. Opposition parties in Parliament are good at criticising. They blame Ministers, as our system invites them to do. Opposition parties fail to ask why so many of the failures are in so called independent bodies with highly paid public sector chiefs paid many times a Minister. They  claim just small extra sums – compared to the huge extra  sums this government has tipped in – would make all the difference.

If only. If extra money would bring the NHS  waiting  lists down or would fix the Post Office and the railway things should be improving well by now. Ministers have tried this. Any Conservative MP will vote for a few extra billions of spending if it could deliver the end of waiting lists, good border control or a new railway line on time and to budget. We have often so voted.

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John Redwood won a free place at Kent College, Canterbury, and graduated from Magdalen College Oxford. He is a Distinguished fellow of All Souls, Oxford.
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