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The IMF were wrong. It’s wasteful spending that needs to go
The IMF like the left wing parties says there must be no unfunded tax cuts. Like them it does not complain about unaffordable wasteful spending. Indeed it argues spending needs to go up. Why?
There is so much to be done by getting a proper grip on spending. There is no need to let the Bank of England lose another £40 bn this week on top of the £49 bn they have already billed taxpayers. It is a needless disgrace.
There is the identified £20 bn of lost public sector productivity the Treasury put in their last plans. Why is it taking so long to get it back? Why do they need to spend to save when the task is to get back to 2019 efficiency levels?
There is the announced sale of Nat West. Why are we waiting? Why are the proceeds spread over three years in the forecasts? That’s another £8 bn. The OBR puts £3.2 bn of the proceeds into 2025-26
The large losses and cash absorption by the railways needs controlling better, with a proper plan to increase fare revenues.£33 bn of subsidy and investment spending is too high.
Introducing a ban on external recruitment to the civil service and public sector admin would help. Getting rid of bad quangos like UK Government Investments and selling off the British Investment Bank would be a good idea. Making a big reduction in legal migration would cut demand for more social housing and public service capacity .
A football regulator?
It is fashionable amongst the political parties and some football fans to demand a Statutory “independent” football regulator. Some fans support such a change as they are critical of some club owners or managements and think a Regulator might be able to sort things out for them .
I fear the prospect of an all wise Regulator who would just happen to bring about change in each club that fans would like is a good dream, but difficult for any appointed Regulator to achieve.A Regulator faces very difficult pressures when Team A claims rival Team B has broken rules and then Team B responds with a counter claim. The more rules there are, the more disputes. Where two or more teams are in dispute any verdict will upset a lot of fans.
Football is a popular sport. It is entertainment. It attracts a large number of rich individuals and some companies that like the game and want to spend their money on trying to build a winning team. Some do make more money out of it by succeeding in getting their team promoted and so generating more revenues. Some make money out of associated property development and retail opportunities using the club assets and brand. Many just spend their money on the costly hunt to transfer talent and then pay mega salaries to retain good people which can end in financial losses.
The FA is the regulator. They believe there needs to be rules over how much money a club can spend and borrow and rules over how clubs attract and retain talent. There obviously have to be game rules all accept, and rules over how you win or lose in league and cup competitions. It is difficult to see how an independent regulator could usefully change FA rules over most of these matters. The FA itself is discovering that its efforts to regulate club finances using penalties that include reducing a teams points in the league can upset fans and make rivalries more bitter. What is best settled on the pitch ends up being settled by lawyers.
If we do set up an independent Regulator under Statute law there will then be a wish to drag Ministers into decisions. When too many fans become critical of the Regulator the cry will go up for Ministerial interference or for some change of the law.
There is a good case for an element of fan ownership or for clubs to be established as trusts owned by fans. This would need to be arrived at with agreement or from buy out of the existing owners. All the time the football model is based on bidding ever higher sums for a small pool of well known players and managers clubs will turn instead to billionaires to help fund their expensive habits.Fans will not have sufficient collective money to pay the sky high prices of the famous. They then have to live with that relationship.The rich shareholder is well advised to keep on the right side of the fans. The fans offer the team support, pay high prices for tickets and buy the merchandise. I do not think politicians should tell football clubs and the FA how to finance themselves. There must be no question of taxpayers bailing out clubs.
My Interview with GB News on the Bank of England
Please find below my interview with GB News on the Bank of England’s losses:
Too much money – inflation Too little- recession
Yesterday I criticised 3 big boom/ bust cycles that came from Bank action and establishment thinking. In each case they ignored money and credit.
The 1975 inflation high peak followed a doubling of broad money 1970-4 as a result of a badly supervised switch to competition and credit control policy by the Bank.
The 1992 inflation followed a 36% surge in broad money 1989-92, brought on by the dangerous European Exchange rate mechanism. IMF figures clocked broad money growth peaking at 86% when the Bank and Treasury were creating billions of pounds to try to keep the value of the pound down to the permitted target. They then saw it plunge to a low of minus 28% when the Bank was busily buying in pounds trying to get the value back up to the target after the inflation sank the currency.
The 2008-9 banking boom followed and created a 66% surge in broad money Q1 2009 compared to Q 12005. Over the Labour years 1997 to 2010 money growth trebled.
The more recent inflation followed 30% money growth 2020 to 2023.
I set out the case against the European Exchange Rate Mechanism before we entered. I urged the government to turn down the Bank and Treasury advice. I explained it could lead to excessive money or too little. It led to both. I took the quoted company I led out of the CBI because the CBI refused to accept ERM membership would be damaging.
In the run up to the crash of 2009 I supported the Opposition in Parliament who regularly warned of excessive credit expansion and government overborrowing.
This time round I warned against the continuation of QE during 2021-2 as inflationary. More recently I switched to warning against excessive bond sales as recessionary.
Why do the Bank and Treasury persist with boom/ bust policies?
Service to constituents and journalists
A journalist has asked questions about my service levels as an MP, so I am sharing the answers in case others are interested.
The threats from Iran
President Biden changed US policy towards the Middle East in 2020. He pulled out of Afghanistan too suddenly, losing a crucial air base and undermining his allies. It led directly to the Taliban taking the country over, after 20 years of the west losing lives and spending huge sums to stop them. He then tried to get a negotiated settlement with Iran. President Trump had negotiated successfully with the Gulf states to achieve their peace with Israel and to try to do the same with Saudi. All agreed Iran was a threat.
President Biden has ended up with worse relations with Saudi and the Gulf states, with OPEC pushing up oil prices by witholding production and now with US forces shooting down Iranian drones and missiles. Iran was always constructing a ring of hostile forces to the west with the Houttis in Yemen now firing on civilian cargo ships, with Hezbollah in Lebanon , Iraq and Syria and Hamas in Gaza.
The UK needs to be super vigilant to stop terrorists gaining access, to continue to work closely with allies to ensure good intelligence
Why do no other MPs want to stop the Bank of England mistakes?
The political classes seem incapable of understanding why we have so many boom bust inflationary cycles. I want more MPs to be demanding a change of policy by the Bank so we can have a growth policy with lower tax rates and better funded core public services.
It is no accident or external force which gave us an inflation in 1975. It was the Bank conducting a policy called competition and credit control badly leading to fast money growth and a secondary banking crisis. In 1977 it was an overspending over borrowing Labour government which ended with a humiliating trip to the IMF to bail us out.
In 1990-92 it was Bank and Treasury policy to put us into the European Exchange rate mechanism which ballooned the money supply backed by PM Major and gave us more inflation.
In 2007-9 it was Bank and Labour government policy to allow commercial banks to lend much more which led to inflation, egged on by high public spending and borrowing.
In 2023-4 the inflation came from Bank Quantitative easing and a big boost to the money supply.
In each case the Bank over corrected for its errors pushing us into recession.
Why doesn’t the Bank learn from this string of errors and give better advice?
The Bernanke Report
Let’s start with some agreement. I agree the Bank needs to improve its forecasting and the communication of its findings.
I do not agree that all Central Banks made worse forecasts over covid and Ukraine. Mr Bernanke seems to ignore China, Japan and Switzerland who kept inflation down despite the swings of oil and food prices. Their forecasts remained nearer the mark.
I do not agree that more highly paid people and more spending will provide the answer. The Bank has a lot of intelligent well qualified people. They need to correct their errors and change their thinking. The models need improving, but they have the people to do that.
It would be a good idea for the Monetary Policy Committee to look at the quantity of money being created and the velocity of circulation, and to provide comment, if only to say they have a good reasons to think creating lots of money will not be inflationary or destroying lots of money will not be recessionary so others can challenge this. Those outside the Bank that did look at the ballooning of the Bank balance sheet and money supply and warned it could prove inflationary got the forecast right even if the Bank is still sure they got the reason wrong. It would be better to have this argument around the MPC table. Why did the MPC who think inflation comes from other sources not manage to predict what happened? The MPC itself needs greater diversity of economic thought. Having someone on it who got the inflation outlook right in recent years would be a good start.
It is also a big disappointment that Mr Bernanke did not consider the impact of the waxing and waning balance sheet of the Bank. Decisions about the bond buying and selling need careful consideration as well as the interest rates. Their strong connection to public finances is also important for their impact on the economy.
The Opposition needs to understand the problems with UK government
The UK public sector is letting many people down and upsetting a lot of voters. Opposition parties in Parliament are good at criticising. They blame Ministers, as our system invites them to do. Opposition parties fail to ask why so many of the failures are in so called independent bodies with highly paid public sector chiefs paid many times a Minister. They claim just small extra sums – compared to the huge extra sums this government has tipped in – would make all the difference.
If only. If extra money would bring the NHS waiting lists down or would fix the Post Office and the railway things should be improving well by now. Ministers have tried this. Any Conservative MP will vote for a few extra billions of spending if it could deliver the end of waiting lists, good border control or a new railway line on time and to budget. We have often so voted.