Month: April 2010

Mr Clegg fibs again today. He tells us he would split investment banking from clearing banking to stop another banking crisis.

Was he asleep during the crisis? Lehmans went bust – that was a pure investment bank. Northern Rock went bust – that was a pure mortgage bank. Alliance and Leicester and Bradford and Bingley got into trouble – both specialist mortgage banks. Fanny and Freddie needed taxpayer subsidy – both mortgage banks. What’s his answer to that?

The truth is the banking regulator didn’t ask for enough cash and capital from any sort of bank. That’s why they got into trouble, when the monetary authorities decided to lurch from super loose to super tight money.

Promoted by Christine Hill on behalf of John Redwood, both of 30 Rose Street Wokingham RG40 1XU

As predicted here inflation continued to rise throughout Q1, hitting a new high of 3.4% on the government’s own CPI measure (target rate 2%) and reaching 4.4% on the more used RPI. Excluding housing the RPI rose by 4.8%.

This means as warned there is a ferocious sequeeze on living standards underway. Wages are going up only by around 1% on average, with some people experiencing declines. The price of petrol at the pump, food prices, heating bills and many other items are putting pressure on budgets.

The Monetary Policy Committee has obviously given up the day job of keeping inflation down to 2%. They are just helping the government’s pre election stimulus in a public sector led economy. I wonder what their excuse will be this time? It was all so predictable. They have lurched from too easy to too tight to too easy again! Why do they find it so difficult to see the obvious and read the cycle?

They should be telling the government the banks are not working properly, the economy is lop sided, official interest rates are unrelated to private sector reality and the public sector stimulus has forced the pound down so far, causing imported inflation. The fact that they say none of this shows they are neither independent in thought nor sensible.

Promoted by Christine Hill on behalf of John Redwood, both of 30 Rose Street Wokingham RG40 1XU

So the authorities now think it might be safe to fly from Scotland. There is no sign the volcano has stopped or the dust plume has gone away, so there must be a change in the “science”. Or is it just a change in the government’s view, under pressure from the aviation industry? I repeat my advice – let them fly freight planes if they wish and if they think it safe, and see what happens.

Meanwhile the Met Office has its critics. Their BBQ summer was cold and very wet. Their mild winter turned out to be full of ice and snow. The early Spring I heard about on the BBC did not come to me – the daffodils in my garden were around three weeks later than usual. Now they are being asked why they rely on computer simulations rather than observations to estimate the ash cloud.

The announcements that the Navy are going to pick up people from the continent have all the hallmarks of the triumph of spin over reality. Apparently two of the ships do not have orders, and the third that is going to pick up troops is not advertised as a ferry for civilians at any stated time or place.

Please government, do make up your minds and tell us what you are doing. If there is insufficient commercial ferry capacity, then say how you will supplement it.

Promoted by Christine Hill on behalf of John Redwood, both at 30 Rose Street Wokingham RG40 1XU

The next three weeks could be crucial for Euroscepticism. The polls make consisently clear by a huge margin that there is not going to be the UKIP breakthrough that some crave. The new House of Commons composition is still unclear, but no serious commentator or pollster thinks there will be a single UKIP MP, let alone a majority UKIP government able to take us out of the EU as they promise.

Instead there is a possibility now that once again a largely Eurosceptic country could end up with a Commons with a majority of federalist MPs, if Labour, the Lib Dems and the Nationalists prevent the Conservatives having a majority.

Worse still, given Labour’s desperate plight in the polls, they may now be ready to do a deal on a different voting system with the Lib dems, to keep the Conservatives out of government and to change the shape of all future elections. If the Lib Dems go along with the Alternative Vote system Labour has proposed, not itself a system of Proportional Representation, we could end up with even more skewed Parliaments in future where Conservative representation was even smaller than the First Past the Post system has delivered in the last three lop sided Parliaments.

The Alternative Vote system has two advantages for Labour. It would be likely to give them even more seats than the present system, and it prevents minor parties from getting representation, as it reallocates the second preference votes of those voting for minor parties in each seat to the main party candidiates to work out who has won. To the Lib Dems it could be the best fig leaf they can grasp in order to get a few Ministerial jobs for themselves after an absence from government of ninety years.

Any such deal would be allied to further transfers of power to Brussels, as the Lib Dems have always favoured. Expect enthusiasm from such a regime for common security and defence policy, for consolidation of common citizenship and borders, and a common criminal justice policy, whilst they ready themselves for eventual Euro membership.

Systems of proportional representation shift the power to change governments from the electorate to the politicians. They mean parties campaign on manifestos they have to amend or surrender when it’s time to construct a coalition government. It helps the political class at the expense of the electors. Is that what we really want?

As a Eurosceptic who wants self government for the UK under a UK democratic system, I think the only course of action is to vote Conservative to secure a Conservative majority. At least the Conservatives have promised to start to get powers back, to stop the passage of any more powers to the EU, and to reassert Parliamentary sovereignty through legislation. It is not all some Eurosceptics want, but a change of direction and intent would be so welcome after the federalist drive of the last 13 years.

Promoted by Christine Hill on behalf of John Redwood, both at 30 Rose Street Wokingham RG40 1XU

Several airlines report success in flying jets without passangers through areas said to present a danger to planes. Clearly there are pilots and airline managements who think the total ban on flying goes too far. We hear the Met Office has been flying around the UK looking at ash. I can hear some light aircraft in the skies and I was told the Scilly Islands passenger air service is still in the air, flying at relatively low levels. The issue at stake is our old friend “the science” – exactly what concentration or level of ash in the sky represents a hazard to engines? Is there any truth in the alternative explanation that those planes which have in the past encountered difficulties near to a volcano have had engines fail owing to a shortage of oxygen in the local atmosphere, with the engines re starting as soon as they are out of the immediate vicinity and the high concentrations of other gases?

The authorities should consider relaxing the total ban on flights from UK airports to permit airlines to send up freight transport only planes where the pilots are volunteers who judge the conditions to be acceptable. If pilots want to do this and if this works without incident more thought could be given to the total ban. If any plane encounters ash sufficient to stop an engine the complete ban should be reimposed.

Meanwhile the idea of allowing many more flights from the rest of the world to Spain to get people home, with more surface transport of all kinds being laid on to get people back from Spain, is a good one. Let us hope this is adopted soon, so families can be reunited, students can get back to their studies and employees back to their jobs.

Promoted by Christine Hill on behalf of John Redwood, both of 30 Rose Street Wokingham RG40 1XU

Day after day the Regulators of air traffic tell us it will be another 12 or 24 hours before flights can resume. Meanwhile, perishable goods needed in the UK go bad in foreign warehouses, the flow of time sensitive and high value components for British business dries up, sales personnel are grounded, business executives fail to meet potential and present clients, to say nothing of the many people stranded abroad unable to return home to work and school.

It is a good rule that UK Ministers do not intervene daily with their offices or seek to make any new policy statements or announcements as Ministers during an election campaign. However, they do retain their Ministerial jobs whilst losing their MP ones just in case there is something urgent which needs Ministerial level decision.

Surely this issue is just such a one. Given some doubts about the propriety of meeting, they could consult representatives of the other main parties first to lay down ground rules. For surely this is a case where a cross Whitehall review of the options is needed?

We are told the ash cloud is too dangerous to allow any plane to fly through it, so it is best to ground all jet planes.A review would ask

1. Is there any way of flying or protecting the engines so that the dust is not lethal?
2. Are there corridors to the west that would allow contact again with the Americas and Asia via the western routes?
3. Could planes take off from say Bristol and Liverpool, fly out low over the sea far enough to be free from the overhead dust and then climb to a more fuel efficient altitude?
4. Are there staging airports in the Atlantic area they could use to refuel if they have to fly low for any distance?
5. What action is being taken to improve capacity on road and rail ferry routes in all directions to the continent?
6. What do the latest tests show about plane stamina and ability to fly round the obstacles?
7. What actions are other countries taking to allow some flights?
8. Should there be any queue or rationing system imposed if we remain artifically very short of capacity for any length of time? Are there for example priority goods that need to be flown in first?

There are doubtless many other questions experts could raise. The need surely is to get some lateral thinking on how we can get the UK on the move again. This is one time when it does need a government to ask the questions and co-ordinate the response, as it is a branch of government, the air space regulators, who are saying no-one and nothing can fly anywhere for the forseeable future.

Promoted by Christine Hill on behalf of John Redwood, both at 30 Rose Street Wokingham RG40 1XU

The latest poll showing Conservatives on 33%, Lib Dems on 30% and Labour on 28% may just be post debate froth. Canvass returns do not show such a Lib Dem surge. It does, however, serve as a reminder that in this election socialism comes in various guises and could do better than Labour’s record and progress deserves.

Labour, the Lib Dems, Welsh and Scottish nationalists and the Green party all want to tax more, to regulate more and to build a bigger state. They all imply that cutting publlic spending would make things worse rather than stave off national bankruptcy. They unite in opposing a caricature of the Conservatives, revealing their deeper antagonism to individual freedom and to the belief that people are often better off being allowed to make their own choices and spend their own money. All but the Greens also wish to see the EU have more powers over our lives, liking their back door extension of the undemocratic regulating state, alied to the growth of a wholly needless regional bureaucracy to help eclipse our freeedoms. They pursue an agenda against success and enterprise, killing the geese that lay their golden eggs for the ever growing public sector.

Ironically UKIP, the English Democrats and other parties which oppose more EU bureaucracy help the socialist parties. They make the cause look unpopular so the socialists can ignore it, whilst taking some votes away from Conservatives who could otherwise win in some seats, allowing pro EU big staters to win instead. The Greens try to do the same thing to the Lib dems, but not on a scale to offset the work of UKIP and the others on the anti federalist wing.

In Wales and Scotland the Nationalists have in the past won seats because their small percentage of the national poll is concentrated in their own areas. They tend to be a bigger threat to Labour, as Labour has most to lose in those places.

In the next couple of weeks it is vital all freedom lovers unite to expose and counter this threat to our remaining liberties and right to self government. The so called Liberal Democrats could be more accurately be called the Illiberal anti democrats. They want more decisions taken by unelected officials in Brussels and Frankfort, more decisions taken by much disliked regional government, more decisions taken by government of all levels instead of by individuals and families.
They propose a whole new raft of regulations to make driving, working and running a business more difficult. They propose £17 billion of new taxes, some of them unspecified, whilst offering a tax cut. Do not aspire to a nice home or a smart car if the Lib dems have anything to do with government. They propose a local income tax, which would mean more tax hikes for the hard working.

You would have thought it was obvious that the UK cannot go on like this. After 13 years of more tax and more regulation, leading to a boom and bust on a huge scale, surely we can get over the message to enough people that more tax and regulation is not the answer but is the problem. Of course Conservatives want good schools and hospitals, free at the point of use. We also know that to afford them you need a flourishing enterprise economy. To get that you need less regulatory cost and lower tax rates. You cannot cut the deficit by increasing the tax rates on hard work and enterprise – you may make it worse by damaging the productive economy further.

Labour got elected in 1997 by pretending to understand the need for balance and the need to let the private sector get on and pay the bills. It promised no more nationalisation,no increases in income tax rates, and better regulation including some more deregulation. Instead in office it invented a load of stealth taxes before finally putting up Income Tax for the higher payers, it nationalised banks and railways, extended public activity in child care and media, and unleashed an avalanche of new regulation. Its extra regulation in banking proved especally ineffective, but very costly.

Switching from a failed socialist party to an older Lib Dem party which really believes much of the same mantra will not get this coutnry out of debt and will not grow the economy quickly enough to save the public services. Follow them and you will increase the risk of national bankruptcy. You will make large panic cuts in public spending more likely, as the current situation is simply unaffordable and incredible. The Uk needs to put all its eforts into rebuilding an enterprise economy, if it wishes to maintain and grow its living standards and public services again.

Promoted by Christine Hill on behalf of John Redwood, both of 30 Rose Street Wokingham RG40 1XU

In the 1970s at the end of a wildly socialist period of Labour government we had a similar problem to today – too few producers. Then it was recognised and led to an important change of government to start to sort things out.

All the economic numbers about the UK are currently at misery levels. Inflation is too high. Real incomes are too low and falling. Unemployment is too high. The balance of payments deficit is too large. Public borrowing is too big. The interest bill on the public debt is enormous.

The answer is obvious – we need to produce more of our own goods and services, and we need to sell more abroad to afford the imports we crave.

Mr Brown – and Mr Clegg – seem to think sustaining high and rising levels of public spending is the way to tackle the problem. They fail to see that high taxes – present and prospective – put people off working harder, risking investment, creating jobs, making things. They fail to see that some public spending, far from creating home goods and services we need and want, is wasteful, just adding to the debts around our necks for no good purpose.

The MPs have been forced to get it. Borrowing more public money to buy a Lib Dem MP a better armchair or a trouser press does not add to the national well being enough to justify the extra debt. If the items are imported it is a double blow to our economy. Now it has to be the turn of the rest of the public sector to get it.

There is hope on the dorsteps. Yesterday I had two surprising exchanges. The first was with a lady who was very disillusioned with politics in general. She told me she worked for the NHS which she said was “crap”. Instead of protesting about how good much of the care is from our nurses and doctors, I asked her why she thought that. She told me it was so because they employed far too many managers and box tickers who got in the way of their provision of care, and took too much of the money which was needed to spend on patient service.

The second was someone who enthusiastically said he would support me and then went on to explain he was a civil servant. He said he knew the cuts were coming, and he thought they were needed, even if it was not in his own interest. It was good to hear a public servant speak up for the general interest and to see the dangers of borrowing too much so clearly.

Mr Brown has tried to create such a large public sector, hoping then they wll unite “to fight the cuts”. Some in the public sector fully understand you need a productive and successful private sector to pay the taxes to pay the public sector bills, and fully understand the need to do more for less to make their contribution to economic recovery. There is a growing sense of unfairness in London and the south about how much of the national bill we have to pay, and growing fears amongst the Labour, Nationalist and Lib Dem political classes far away from London about what happens when the public sector money tree no longer produces such a good crop. The way to unite the nation is to unite it around the twin propositions that we need a much stronger private sector recovery, which requires lower tax rates, and we all need to do more for less in the public sector, as the private sector has had to do for years to compete.

Promoted by Christine Hill on behalf of John Redwood, both of 30 Rose Street Wokingham RG40 1XU

David Cameron asked Mr Clegg in the debate whether the Lib Dems had paid back their £2.4 million donation from Michael Brown or not. There was no answer from Mr Clegg.

I have been asked to explain the background to this by some voters. To pay for their relatively successful last General Election campaign the Lib Dems accepted £2.4million from 5th Avenue Partners, a company they believed to be trading in the UK. It subsequently emerged that 5th Avenue Partners was part of a complex operation run by Michael Brown, the donor and now a convicted criminal, and was not a UK investment company in the way they thought.

If Mr Clegg wishes to pose as the white knight out to clean up British politics he should start by repaying this dubious money the Lib Dems took. The people who lost out through Michael Brown’s activities would like their money back.

I happen to think UK politicis would be better if we had stricter controls on the amount of money any party can spend on its national campaign. There are problems with Labour raising so much from a handful of Trade Unions, and the Conservatives raising so much from rich individiuals. Neither main party has such an embarrassing donation to account for as the Lib Dems. People in glass houses should be careful before trying to throw stones.

Promoted by Christine Hill on behalf of John Redwood, both of 30 Rose Street Wokingham RG40 1XU