The Met Office lacks no certainty when it comes to climate change. It tells us that it now offers “weather and climate change forecasts for the UK and the world”. It seeks to forecast short term weather, ten year general climate, and 100 year climate cycles. It belongs to the school of thought which says that we are living through a period of global warming, and argues that has been brought about by human generated CO2.
To reinforce the message the website is punctuated by the symbols of dangerous climate change. There is a picture of a baked landscape, clearly suffering from excessive heat and no rain. England in 2012 did not look like that anywhere. There is a thermometer obligingly showing 30 degrees C, a temperature we so rarely experience here in the UK. Today I thought I would share with you some of their more interesting forecasts and statements from 2012.
February 2012 “Climate change and drought video”. The Met Office was warning us abouta serious UK drought.
23 March “The forecast for average UK rainfall slightly favours drier than average conditions for April-May-June as a whole….the water resources situation in southern, eastern and central England is likely to deteriorate further during the April-May-June period”
End 2012 ” the second wettest year in the UK dating back to 1910 … with April and June being the wettest on record.”
“Throughout the year (2012) accurate forecasts and warnings from the Met Office have helped everyone…”
The mean temperature for 2012 was 0.1 degrees C below the 1981-2010 average.
On December 24th they lowered their ten year temperature forecast based on a new model.
This record invites a few questions:
Do the Met office agree there has been no warming for the last decade?
Do they agree that world temperatures can be increased or diminished by solar action? How do they model that?
Do they agree that the move to the Medieval Warm period and then back to the Mini Ice Age was unconnected with human CO2? How do they model for similar changes in the future?
Is their current forecast for mild wet winters and hot dry summers in the UK as global warming progresses? That was what they were saying in their general climate change views.
Could the change in currents and winds that gave us cold winters and cool wet summers recently affect future years?
What is the role of water vapour as a greenhouse gas? What influence can human conduct have on water vapour and cloud formation?
Wouldn’t it be a good idea to concentrate their money and research on weather, and try to improve the accuracy of the forecasts for the next few months, rather than attempting ten year and 100 year forecasts?