Why Douglas Carswell needs to be free to speak

In political parties backbench MPs and members of the party are usually free to criticise the leadership if they wish, to seek change to policies and to ask for changes at the top. I find it disappointing if not surprising that Mr Farage has reacted so angrily to Mr Carswell’s question as to whether UKIP now needs new leadership with a different approach to its policies and its message.

Mr Carswell is still the only person to have managed to win a Westminster seat in UKIP colours at a General election. It is true he had previously won the seat as a Conservative, and only won again in 2015 for UKIP with a reduced majority. He has, however, both won a by election and a General election for UKIP in a single seat, something which has always eluded Mr Farage. Maybe Mr Farage could learn from Mr Carswell’s different language and approach to politics. If UKIP are sensible  they will not seek to embarrass their only MP through some public denunciation, and will instead invite him into private talks about the direction of their  party.

The crucial task now for UKIP must be to put much else  aside and to help win the referendum for Leave, as that presumably remains their prime reason for existing. For the Out campaign to win, we first need to understand the numbers. Let us begin with current national polling intentions (average of recent polls):

Conservative  39%

Labour   33%

UKIP  12%

Liberal Democrat  7%

 

To win the referendum we need at least 51% of the vote. We should be able to assume that all UKIP voters will vote for Leave. It would  be odd indeed to be a keen supporter of UKIP but not to believe in their central proposition. A majority of Conservatives wish to leave. We need to get the proportion up to 70%, which is roughly  the proportion of Conservative members who wish to leave. Labour is a pro Stay in party, but we should be able to call on at least one quarter of Labour voters, as there is a long standing left of centre anti EU tradition as well. Labour voters do not want the EU’s trade treaty provisions with US corporates and are worried about the influence of big business on EU policy generally. We would then need to pick up 5% from the rest:

Contributions to Leave vote

 

Conservative 51%

UKIP  24%

Labour 16%

Others  9%

 

Possible sources of votes in the overall referendum to win for Leave

Conservative   26%

UKIP        12%

Labour      8%

Others     5%

 

Total  51%

These figures remind us it could be a tight result. It should also warn us that crucial to winning will be reassuring Labour and other voters that voting to leave is safe and sensible, restoring our democracy and returning more of our money to spend as we see fit. That’s why we  now need messages which unite our side, and bring more people to agree with us. The uniting message must be to restore control, to bring back our democracy. There is no point and considerable danger in trying to push out an ever narrower and more sceptic message to the faithful, when we need to win over the waverers.

 

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138 Comments

  1. bluedog
    Posted December 20, 2015 at 5:20 am | Permalink

    A nightmare scenario looms, Dr JR. Cameron is confirming that he is pro-EU irrespective of cost every day and it is clear that Osborne is a committed pro too. Now, assume that Boris Johnson is drafted into the Cabinet as Foreign Secretary and you have a Cabinet dominated by three very strong personalities who will simply bully dissenters into silence.

    One can imagine the pitch of each of the triumvirate. Cameron: ‘We’ve got everything we asked for, Britain’s prosperity is assured, the illegals are stopped at Calais and you can still work and travel anywhere in Europe’. Osborne ‘Vote to stay in the EU and the Conservatives will cut taxes on a successful ‘Yes’ result’. Johnson, “I’ve spoken to my contacts in Ankara, the Turks are joining the EU and will deal with the migrants from Syria”. Yes Boris, but there’s only 75m Turks, still to flood Europe.

    It’s going to be hard, Dr JR, very hard. Our best ally is the EU. There’s usually at least one major crisis a year, so the longer 2016 goes before the referendum, the better.

    • Anonymous
      Posted December 21, 2015 at 8:53 am | Permalink

      And David Cameron has the great orator Hilary Benn on his side.

      Not even the great Douglas Carswell will be able to out-speak Hilary Benn.

      • Lifelogic
        Posted December 21, 2015 at 9:28 pm | Permalink

        Hilary Benn’s speech was vacuous rabble rousing drivel. No content about why any bombing might actually help, nor any serious suggestions about a realistic long term plan.

        • Anonymous
          Posted December 22, 2015 at 6:57 am | Permalink

          Yes Lifelogic. And at the last minute he made people vote in a way that they shouldn’t have done.

          • Lifelogic
            Posted December 23, 2015 at 11:28 pm | Permalink

            The vote was going in favour of the counterproductive bombing already.

  2. stred
    Posted December 20, 2015 at 6:13 am | Permalink

    Carswell must wish he had not left to be alone. He should rejoin the minority in the Conservative party who wish to leave. Nigel is far the best leader for core Kippers. He is also the strongest speaker in support of leaving. Most conservatives are still in on the fence. UKIP have no MPs because of our uniquely undemocratic system. Same for Greens.

    The majority of voters are either committed to joining the EU,or hoping for some non -existent deal and will be fooled by Eural and others. The pro camp will lie and spin in order to fulfil their agenda, which is an EU superstate and world government. Most Scots would prefer to be dominated by Brussels instead of Westminster. Most young English have been indoctrinated by their teachers and lecturers, who are mostly in favour of the EU, or have to keep their opinions quiet. Big business wishes nations out of the way. The media class is international in staffing and views.

    We are lead by Scottish and Irish aristocrats in Downing Street, and their main talent is to deceive. It will not matter to young English people if their country is finished, until they find that they have no chance of changing m saying. Baanything when they have experienced the superstate. It will be a far bigger mistake than the first referendum, when we were fooled by our leaders before. MacMillan, Heath and Wilson- the Cameron and Osborne of their time.

    Reply Listen to what I am saying. Build bridges with those we need to win over instead of retreating to the 12% who see the world as you do.

    • stred
      Posted December 20, 2015 at 8:11 am | Permalink

      Reply to reply. I talk to my family and they don’t want any bridges. Out is wrong. They are indoctrinated. The world as I see it is much the same as yours. England being regionalised by stealth. English votes becoming useless English vetoes. The referendum being rigged with foreign votes and the superstate ignored, while talking about minor changes to benefits.Energy policy continues as EU dictates, coal and steel closed, while windmills instead of fish out at sea. Words and actions show the world as it is. You are lead by agents for the superstate and are ignored and tolerated with contempt. Putting smiley faces on the campaign is not going to sway the largely politically inept population or those who do not see England as their own country.

      (Read it twice and hope editing is not changed this time)

      • Margaret
        Posted December 20, 2015 at 9:25 am | Permalink

        And we are bringing people in to take key positions of power where the UK condones this sense of superiority. These migrant workers by increasing their population threefold, paying for training out of the benefits system ,where moneys have been pooled and small business concerns paid for with unseen cash, continue to build their own power over us. Why can’t the buffoons understand that we Brits/ English are killing ourselves with lenience and denial of ourselves.

        • bigneil
          Posted December 20, 2015 at 12:30 pm | Permalink

          Spot on Margaret. Cameron shows his contempt of us by having loads of “home grown” homeless – yet waving in 20,000 straight into free lives. 20,000 who have not paid a penny in, some possibly never will – -but Cameron clearly has foreigners as a priority -we are only here to be taxed to death to pay for what HE wants.

      • Narrow Shoulders
        Posted December 20, 2015 at 2:59 pm | Permalink

        Mr Farage has done a sterling job to get UKIP as far as he has and deserves credit for instigating the referendum which despite Mr Redwood’s protestations is unlikely to have materialised without UKIP’s poll strength.

        However Mr Farage turns as many opinions against him as he converts and he has probably converted as many now as he ever will (this is why he can not win a seat in Parliament as more would rather vote directly against him as for him).

        If Mr Farage stepped aside now with occasional guest appearances “leave” would be a stronger proposition. It is too easy for opponent to chuck “racist” and “little Englander” at Mr Farage which hurts converting the votes that will really count.

        It is often said on this site that you can put a red rosette on a donkey and Labour will poll 30% in some constituencies. UKIP’s bond with Mr Farage has become a similar tale. Those convinced by Mr Farage’s rhetoric are going to vote leave whatever. Time to convince enough others.

      • John Peers
        Posted December 21, 2015 at 2:46 am | Permalink

        Please read it a third time and change “lead” to “led”.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted December 20, 2015 at 10:17 am | Permalink

      It is not 12%, a rather more sensible starting figure would be to look at the last MEP voting. Here voters were voting mainly on the EU issue and had a free to vote (they cannot do this at general elections as they often have to vote for the least bad option or the stop X candidate). Here UKIP attracted more votes than both Labour and more than the Tories.

      The problem is that the BBC propaganda, almost every BBC presenter, nearly all actors and pop Musicians, Obama, the EU, Cameron, most Tory MPs, most of Labour, the SNP, the Green loons and the Welsh lot, plus the CBI and many large businesses will be for IN. Many will just think these people are all for in and they should know. Just as so many of the public fell for the Catastrophic warming alarmism. They think the “experts” are saying this what do I know? But as we know these experts are not experts at all. They are people who hold vested interests that are largely against the interest of the voters. That is why they cannot come up with a single sensible advantage of being in the EU. They just state that it is in our interests endlessly but can never say why. Why on earth would it be in the UK’s interest to give up all residual democracy and be ruled by unelected and non removable bureaucrats, with little or no interest in the success of the UK? Bureaucrats with an appalling record on every single thing they touch – fishing, CAP, growth, emloyments, green crap energy, the ERM, the EURO, over regulation of everything, running costs, corruption, migration ….

      • fedupsoutherner
        Posted December 20, 2015 at 1:33 pm | Permalink

        Well said LifeLogic.

    • Timaction
      Posted December 20, 2015 at 11:13 am | Permalink

      Carswells timing for criticising Mr Farage couldn’t have been worse. A day when Cameron was humiliated and shown to support EU on ANY terms. It’ s anyone’s guess why he would do that. It certainly wasn’t in UKIP or the National interest, but that’s the Tory way.
      So what are you and the other people in the Tory party going to do to discredit your leadership after their lies and deceit that UKIP have been saying for years?
      I’m already out leafleting, campaigning and discrediting federalist lies daily. It’s time for National interest not narrow party loyalty. Your leader has been exposed as the scheming quisling he is. It’s time to discredit him and Gideon!

    • CHRISTOPHER HOUSTON
      Posted December 20, 2015 at 3:56 pm | Permalink

      Stred: “UKIP have no MPs because of our uniquely undemocratic system” In point of fact UKIP did not favour any form of proportional representation until they found they could not beat anyone in a fair fight. They loved the idea of the First Past the Post system when they were arrogant enough to think they would be that wonky horse.
      No, UKIP is finished. All Farage’s contenders for the throne will fall. Watch out for when they spit out the plums from their mouths and start talking mucky again.

      • Denis Cooper
        Posted December 20, 2015 at 5:17 pm | Permalink

        Is three against one your idea of a fair fight?

      • Leslie Singleton
        Posted December 20, 2015 at 10:47 pm | Permalink

        Houston, you have a problem. The fight I assume you are attempting to make play on was a 45 year same MP, rock solid, Labour stronghold, in its heartlands, bolstered by a 25% immigrant community that voted Labour in a 99% bloc, and a popular, locally born and bred Leader of the Labour run Council. No sweat understanding any of what went on there and why. There will be more favourable seats for UKIP and I cannot fathom what you are talking about. I will grant you that hopes ran too high beforehand but I do not see that that proves much.

        • CHRISTOPHER HOUSTON
          Posted December 21, 2015 at 6:18 pm | Permalink

          Leslie Singleton “Houston, you (we) have a problem” . Gosh, golly, I’ve never heard that one before.
          So often, on these Comments, people, in the words of Mr. Farage “Play the man and not the ball” .

          In the last day or two I’ve made comments in reply in the same ad hominem manner to see if people get the message. Many did not.
          Whilst major politicians expect “personal ” remarks, they actually applaud such mentions as “All publicity is good publicity ” in a land where few know the names of even the senior politicians. A local politician at branch level, and I’ve seen it, will scheme to get his name on anything going “higher” just so his name is read by as little as ten people. This is politics. But these comments on here are in many ways plain sad. Not a good advertisement for our culture as this blog is actually seen by thousands worldwide. ( Due not to Commenters but to JR )

          In regard to UKIP and your analysis : It is Houston’s experience that immigrants do not vote as a “bloc”, nor are they “a community”. In fact, they are less likely to vote as a “bloc” than those people in traditional Labour and Tory areas. Why? Because they come from diverse countries, some of which are extremely large with a multitude of languages, religions and political priorities. One neighbour coming from the Central African Republic told me, rightly or wrongly, that there were 73 different languages in her country. ( I suspect most are what we call “dialects” but in the case of her country are in fact distinguishable and separate unofficial languages. ) Whatever the number, and given our small experience of the Irish, Scots and Welsh languages, it is pretty hard for such people, even from one country, to think and act as a “bloc”. Most come from countries where if given a vote would in fact vote what we term “right-wing” as buying and selling and barter is the usual and normal way of existence and survival for the vast majority.

  3. petermartin2001
    Posted December 20, 2015 at 6:30 am | Permalink

    The only disagreement I would have with this assessment is that there’d be 51% of Conservative voters in favour of leaving.

    On the other hand, I’d say there’d be a lot more than 16% of Labour voters who feel that way.

    I have noticed that there seems to be more support for LEAVE from those who have definite political point of view, whether of the right or left, than those who may be described as apolitical. They do seem to favour staying in, for some reason.

    I can only base this assessment on my own personal acquaintances. So maybe they aren’t typical. We’ll see. I have every confidence that a LEAVE vote is entirely possible, though, which does mean that the left and right will have to work together to achieve the right result.

    This won’t be easy!

    • JJE
      Posted December 20, 2015 at 9:47 am | Permalink

      I think that is an important insight. If you are interested in politics and want to influence change you need to live in a functioning democracy where votes count for something.
      That’s a strong central theme for the LEAVE campaign.

      • bigneil
        Posted December 20, 2015 at 12:33 pm | Permalink

        And we are certainly NOT living in a functioning democracy.

        • Lifelogic
          Posted December 20, 2015 at 11:47 pm | Permalink

          Indeed.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted December 20, 2015 at 10:21 am | Permalink

      Indeed the apolitical will just go along with the BBC and Cameron’s pro EU propaganda as they tend to on Climate Alarmist too.

      Or hopefully they will not vote at all.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted December 20, 2015 at 10:43 am | Permalink

      I think more than 51% of Tory voters want to leave but only about 15% of Tory MPs. That is why so many pretend to be sceptic before elections then kick their supporters in the teeth Cameron style post election.

      Reply I used 70% as my figure for Conservative voters – which amounts to 51% of the total anticipated Leave vote.

    • acorn
      Posted December 20, 2015 at 6:16 pm | Permalink

      Peter, now is the time the big money is looking at getting some good opening betting odds on the referendum winner. Particularly as it appears that 64 million of us have no say whatsoever, as to when WE want the referendum! Frankly, “reclaiming our democracy” does not exactly thrill me.

      The UK has a five year “elected dictatorship”, orchestrated by the (corporately obliged) metropolitan elite. At least I get to vote more often if we stay in the EU. Once we come out, the five year parliament may become the seven year and then the ten year parliament. Hello North Korea!

      The referendum vote will be dictated by the print media, as are all national political votes in the UK.

      Just three companies News UK, DMGT and Trinity Mirror control nearly 70% of national newspaper circulation. Just five companies control some 70% of regional daily newspaper circulation. Online news sources are overwhelmingly accounted for by traditional news providers.

      The money down at the moment is 61% stay in; 39% get out.

      • Denis Cooper
        Posted December 21, 2015 at 8:57 am | Permalink

        “Once we come out, the five year parliament may become the seven year and then the ten year parliament. Hello North Korea!”

        Well we’ve managed to avoid that happening for more than a century now, of which more than half was before we joined the EEC, and we’ve even managed to arrange necessary postponements of general elections during two world wars but then easily go back to having them after the war – in fact, in 1945, before the war had entirely finished.

        However I do agree that abolition of Section 7 of the Parliament Act 1911 has left us rather more vulnerable, insofar as there was previously a chance that the Lords might have used their absolute veto to prevent the Commons postponing general elections without good cause. Instead any change to the maximum life of Parliament should really be subject to popular approval in a referendum.

        Is “Hello North Korea!” the europhile equivalent of the “EUSSR”?

  4. The Active Citizen
    Posted December 20, 2015 at 7:12 am | Permalink

    The analysis is interesting JR. What this will all come down to is :
    1. Making strong, positive, simple arguments for why we’re better off out, and repeating these over and over.
    2. Prioritising economic and security arguments over and above those about immigration and sovereignty. It doesn’t matter what the polls say about the biggest issues in peoples’ minds, they’ll vote with their wallets as usual and will want to feel secure.
    3. Appealing to undecideds and soft Remainers and NOT just appealing to those who are already Leavers, as UKIP have those in the bag already.
    4. Making strong and simple rebuttals of the fear tactic fallacies of the Remain campaign.
    5. Scaring the bejeebies out of people with our own fear campaign – the fact is that the EU has consistently gone further and further away from what the British people want, and will continue to do so. We must make Remain the risky option in peoples’ minds.
    6. Persuading more Tory MPs to come off the fence asap and declare for the Leave campaign. Likewise the smaller number of Labour MPs. Then Cabinet ministers.
    7. Getting more businesses to come out, on a daily basis, for Leave.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted December 20, 2015 at 10:24 am | Permalink

      The point needs to me made that if we vote for out we have nothing at all to lose. A new and better more free trade with strings type of deal will be offered as they will want us locked in. Hopefully the UK will sensible reject that too cooperation, UK based democracy and free trade is all we want.

    • oldtimer
      Posted December 20, 2015 at 10:27 am | Permalink

      These are good points. Yet control of the airwaves remains with those who advocate Stay – namely the BBC.

    • DaveM
      Posted December 20, 2015 at 2:42 pm | Permalink

      What would also help is senior, wise MPs who have solid and undisputable arguments standing up and speaking. Like Liam Fox and, errr….. Mr Redwood. They’re getting the MSM coverage now.

      Even the BBC are starting to look a bit less biased. Apart from the odd day when they have a full frontal pro-EU pro-mass immigration day. Although it could be argued that those days do more for the Leave campaign than the Remain lot.

  5. ColinD.
    Posted December 20, 2015 at 7:20 am | Permalink

    Those who vote to stay are voting for the status quo. The ‘Leave’ lobby needs to constantly hammer home the message that the status quo of today only applies to TODAY. Tomorrow is quite different – more and more Europe and less and less sovereignty. The end game is UK as an independent nation ceases to exist. The public must be encouraged to ask themselves ‘is that the future I really want for myself, my children and my country?’ before ticking the ‘remain’ box.

    • oldtimer
      Posted December 20, 2015 at 10:30 am | Permalink

      You are correct. the UK must choose which fork of the road it wishes to travel. Stay = more and more EU. Leave = independence. The status quo is not on offer.

      • matthu
        Posted December 20, 2015 at 11:24 am | Permalink

        This should be drawn up like a traffic circle with No Entry straight ahead, Greater integration to the Left and Independence to the Right,

  6. Mike Stallard
    Posted December 20, 2015 at 7:40 am | Permalink

    “Maybe Mr Farage could learn from Mr Carswell’s different language and approach to politics.”
    And maybe not. Mr Farage has a history here. Marta Andreassen and Richard North could not work with him. He is certainly not an easy man for people to work with. He is a brilliant, humorous (even M. Juncker said that) and attractive public speaker. Just watch him in the Hemicycle! Or in his countrywide speeches. Brilliant! A Cassandra for our times.
    So even Dan Hannan could not bring Ukip and the Conservatives together. And now Ukip realise that they can make huge inroads into the Labour vote in the North, so they are no longer the disaffected old men of Clacton.

    • Richard1
      Posted December 20, 2015 at 9:14 am | Permalink

      No they’ve become the snarling anti-immigration party, no longer a small state libertarian party. Maybe that’s why they are on 12%.

      • Lifelogic
        Posted December 20, 2015 at 10:45 am | Permalink

        They are not against immigration they want a sensible, points based, selective immigration systems – decided in the UK – as do most sensible people.

        • CHRISTOPHER HOUSTON
          Posted December 20, 2015 at 4:19 pm | Permalink

          Lifelong: UKIP’s points-based system is based on the Australian system, so they say. Well Australia holds people in camps outside its shores who have more right to call themselves Australian than any British settler. They also flit them to Thailand where they suffer greatly in camps with a population totally alien to them and aggressive. UKIP’s points based system has not been worked out and is just pie ( a sour pie) in the sky totally ignoring the right of many of its Asian members and supporters who have a right by law to bring their dependent relatives into the UK.
          . UKIP has been playing a daft double-edged game since it lacks support from in what in Canadian terms may be called Native British, to garner support from existing Asian-British telling them they will in fact allow more immigration of their countrymen. Such a move, in practice, would merely destroy its vote from Native British. But UKIP leaders’ real aim is to get an undemocratic position, for life, in the House of Lords.Probably waiting for Dave to buy them off in this regard. He should instead deport them to Australia after they spit out the plums in their mouths, but better to a hot steamy Thailand camp in the middle of the jungle according to an Australian-based points system.

      • stred
        Posted December 20, 2015 at 1:16 pm | Permalink

        UKIP had sensible policies on energy, trade, policing and defence. They decided to back the NHS after Farage tried to suggest a more European service, which works better, but the membership could not face up to change. at least they recognised that more money was needed and found it from savings from EU fees. Farage is married to a German, and Kippers are from many ethnic groups. The immigration issue comes from all sides in the campaign, because the public see it as the no 1 interest. Smearing by selective quotes of a few loons is below the belt. By the way, I am not a member and came to vote for them after being mugged for the last time by liars.

      • libertarian
        Posted December 20, 2015 at 2:36 pm | Permalink

        Richard1

        Absolutely correct.

        Farage is a good speaker, he’s a rabble rouser just like Corbyn. Farage is NOT a leader, a good politician, very astute or clever. UKIP are a 1950’s party & doomed to fade away after the referendum.

        • CHRISTOPHER HOUSTON
          Posted December 20, 2015 at 6:55 pm | Permalink

          libertarian: You are wrong. Not for the first time by any means.
          Whatever Farage’s faults, he cannot be expected to biblically change water into wine with the most politically uneducated electorate in Europe and in terms of his leading inner circle: sows ears into silk purses.

          • libertarian
            Posted December 20, 2015 at 9:01 pm | Permalink

            Christopher Houston

            Blimey thats a first a post of yours in actual English.

            However as always its drivel and doesn’t address what I said. I was talking about Farages ability to lead his own party and the people in it. He can’t and doesn’t which is why they wont get anywhere in Westminister politics. After the referendum which ever way it goes UKIP becomes a pointless party. how difficult is that to understand etc ed?

      • Denis Cooper
        Posted December 20, 2015 at 3:46 pm | Permalink

        So they’re “snarling”, are they? Pot and kettle here, I think.

    • alan jutson
      Posted December 20, 2015 at 10:31 am | Permalink

      Mike

      “Maybe Mr Farage could learn from Mr Carswell ….”

      I agree to a point, I certainly think Farage is now overdoing the immigration terrorist bit, as people already get this link loud and clear.

      Recent events in Paris have highlighted the link, as have other arrests.

      Without question Farage is the man to lead UKIP for the time being, as its almost his Party, but there are other able sensible UKIP members and perhaps they should be allowed a voice a little more often.

      Farage needs in my view to tone down the anti foreigner rhetoric, and now concentrate on business, employment, sovereign, and economic facts in order to back up the other out supporters.

      Farage in a sense is unique, many people see him as an honest but angry man, a few more may support his argument if he looked rather less angry.

      UKIP would shrink under Carswells leadership, as he appears rather too clever and complicated .

      • libertarian
        Posted December 20, 2015 at 2:39 pm | Permalink

        Alan Jutson.

        No one and I mean no one is allowed to share a voice in the leadership of UKIP. Its a one man band all dissent is terminated instantly.

        In my opinion Carswell doesn’t want to be UKIP leader, he doesn’t even want to be in UKIP ( I dont blame him, most of the members are ……..) . He wants to be expelled

        • turbo terrier
          Posted December 20, 2015 at 7:06 pm | Permalink

          Libertarian

          “All dissent is terminated”

          Bit like the SNP then.

        • alan jutson
          Posted December 20, 2015 at 8:39 pm | Permalink

          Libertarian

          …” Its a one man band…”

          If what you say is true, and it may well be, then Farage will have to learn to change, otherwise he and his Party will eventually wither and die, because he will not appeal to enough people, unless the opposition Parties become so bad that they are unelectable.

          Hence the reason for my original comments.

      • Leslie Singleton
        Posted December 20, 2015 at 3:04 pm | Permalink

        Dear alan–I disagree completely, believing as I do that many more people are horrified by what has happened to this country who for a number of obvious reasons do not yet feel able to “risk” their vote on UKIP. Farage should go all the way and say the so-called “core principle” of free movement of people is not a sensible principle at all, just Utopian claptrap, and that in any event its results in practice have been manifestly disastrous. I have yet to disagree with a single word that Farage has ever said. What did Carswell not understand about UKIP before he joined? Tell him to go back where he came from, as they say. His timing in particular has been pernicious and past all understanding.

        • Robert Christopher
          Posted December 20, 2015 at 6:09 pm | Permalink

          Farage believes in patriotism, for all people, and that even includes celebrating the French being patriotic about France 🙂 . Too many in our Cabinet are oblivious to this positive attribute and sovereignty, which is the political manifestation of the former. In fact, acknowledgement of this thinking may even be a bar to Cabinet membership, certainly until after the referendum, when it may be too late!

          Why do people become MPs, only to hand over their prime responsibility to foreigners?

          Since at least 1997 we have seen patriotism being derided in world politics. Not only do we feel abandoned now, with aggressive ‘refugees’ being thrown wealth that we created for our families, but many of them are a danger to us! Much of the wealth we create is because of our civil order, trust between each other and honest financial dealings: it won’t take much disruption to cause problems.

          In addition, there is this to think about, in Roger Scruton’s book, Arguments for Conservatism, page 1:
          “Democracies owe their existence to national loyalties – the loyalties that are supposedly shared by government and opposition, by all political parties and by the electorate as a whole. Wherever the experience of nationality is weak or non-existent democracy has failed to take root. For without national loyalty opposition is a threat to government, and political disagreements create no common ground.”

          Just look at the EU structure to see which path it wants to travel.

        • alan jutson
          Posted December 20, 2015 at 6:24 pm | Permalink

          Leslie

          “I disagree completely…”

          I think we have more in common than you think.

          I just think Farage is now overdoing the Immigration Terrorist link.

          I viewed a recent debate and Fararge was on for the best part of 30 mins to put his case for leaving the EU, the first 20mins was all about refugees and terrorism, and the last 10 mins about all of the other aspects.

          In my mind as in many others, we completely get the immigration problem, and the terrorism refugee argument, as its been on our screens for hours on end, anyone that does still not get that will never get it.

          Its the other arguments that we need to convince people about.

          Trade deficit with the EU.
          How we can trade with the rest of the World.
          That we will still sell goods to the EU
          That 3,000,000 jobs will not be lost
          Cost of EU membership
          Sovereignty of our Parliament.
          Our record of Lack of influence within the EU
          The fact that decisions are made for us outside of Parliament.
          Unelected EU members with regards to future policy

          So many other points that people are not aware of.

          Whilst I recognise immigration is an absolutely vital topic. To just keep on and keep on about immigration and terrorism is a turn off, as its seems a single issue argument.

          Farage argues so well on the other important subjects, its a shame he does not use the complete spectrum for us getting out. !

          • Anonymous
            Posted December 21, 2015 at 12:45 am | Permalink

            Alan

            Farage is the only politician who points out the dangers.

            Perhaps, because he is the only politician doing so, he has to do it for so long.

            People get the terrorist/uncontrolled immigration link. They don’t, however, get the EU link that binds them together.

            The toxification of the subject has been through the Left wing media and all other parties who have made it taboo and Farage has said nothing wrong otherwise you can be darn sure he’d have been prosecuted.

            The groans, the rolls of the eyes and the twisting of words… these responses are what have made the debate inpeneterable.

            The Ins have the advantage. And that advantage is only because Farage has been abandoned by those who should be his allies in his assault on this turret.

    • Ian wragg
      Posted December 20, 2015 at 12:36 pm | Permalink

      I don’t think Farage has anything to learn from Carswell. Carswell is a Tory stooge who has spread nothing but discontent since defecting. I’m not surprised he can’t work with Richard North as he is only interested in a mutual admiration society.
      There are many more than 12% UKIP supporters on EU related issues and most will be out voting.
      I see Major minor was spouting his piece again saying all ministers should follow CMD ‘ S lead and campaign for in. This will really split the party

    • CHRISTOPHER HOUSTON
      Posted December 20, 2015 at 3:49 pm | Permalink

      Mike Stallard: UKIP cannot make “great inroads into the north”. No-one in the north wants a UKIP candidate in the House of Lords. That is UKIP policy to which Farage and his deputy think is “spot on” . UKIP thinks the EU is undemocratic and that is why they want us OUT. Someone tell UKIP the House of Lords is evven worse than the EU and it would be a blot on the landscape with the likes of Mr Carswell and crew faffing over their Ermine gowns.

  7. CHRISTOPHER HOUSTON
    Posted December 20, 2015 at 7:57 am | Permalink

    Yes but Mr Carswell is unlikely to win again in his seat either under UKIP or as an Independent. Would he fair better with the voters if he returned to the Conservative Party? Doubtful.
    He could take the place of Mr Dimbleby in BBC Question Time. Everyone is fed up with his ties featuring spiders and other creepy-crawlies. A woman will not get his job. The continual hair/head flicking from their usually right eye is as bad as flash photography for some vulnerable people. Oddly it is mainly Tory women who have a hairdresser with differing lengths of leg.

    • libertarian
      Posted December 20, 2015 at 9:04 pm | Permalink

      CH

      Can you do that again in English. I haven’t got a clue what you are burbling about.

      Wibble

  8. Antisthenes
    Posted December 20, 2015 at 8:08 am | Permalink

    The fact that any lefties are against the EU seems rather strange as the EU has been built around much of what they purport to stand for. Socialist principles. Central authoritarian control(politburo in Brussels), high levels of wealth redistribution and statism is that not what lefties like. We have always known that lefties are intellectually challenged and hypocrites. Surely this is just another proof of that.

    Carswell if this spat continues with Farage must surely consider leaving UKIP and rejoining the Conservatives. Although how that could be accomplished is difficult to know. Farage has only one virtue and that is his plain speaking. He makes a good attack dog when it comes to the EU. Apart from that he appears to have many faults that Carswell seems to have picked up on. Faults that Carswell could balance out if they worked together. That I think is unlikely and unless they do as you point out it will harm the leave campaign.

    Mr Redwood I do not know how well you know Carswell but a little assistance from you a word in the ear so to speak that perhaps could help resolve the situation? Or would that be chasing rainbows, inappropriate and counter productive? Then there is the problem of all the other campaign groups for leaving none of which seem to be able to find common ground to work together. Spending more time sniping at one another so not putting all their efforts into convincing the public that leaving the EU is in their best interests. As it stands the remain inners are getting away with spewing out FUD that is easy to show is nothing but that and has no substance in fact yet because the leaver front is not united it is not being exposed and countered as well as it should be.

    reply The Vote.Leave campaign including me works fine so far with Mr Carswell.

    • matthu
      Posted December 20, 2015 at 8:49 am | Permalink

      “As it stands the remain inners are getting away with spewing out FUD that is easy to show is nothing but that and has no substance in fact yet because the leaver front is not united it is not being exposed and countered as well as it should be.”

      Let’s hope they are using the tactic first exploited by the Greatest Boxer ever-lived, Muhammad Ali.

      Absorb (or deflect) early and premature attacks by your opponent while saving energy for the flurry of blows at the end.

      • alan jutson
        Posted December 20, 2015 at 12:08 pm | Permalink

        Mathu

        The problem with your proposed strategy

        Boxing has a fixed and known time limit so you can pace yourself (if not knocked out)

        Mr Cameron can call the referendum at any time to suit himself, so the timescale is not known, and this is the biggest threat if you do not make all your points early enough for them to sink in.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted December 20, 2015 at 11:36 am | Permalink

      Some lefties believe in democracy the importance of being able to elect and deselect leaders: Michael Foot, Tony Benn, Peter Shore, Eric Varley, and Barbara Castle. Also the Democratic Unionist Party and even the Scottish National Party, Plaid Cymru and the Communist Party of Great Britain at the last “common market” referendum.

      Indeed democracy works well for lefties as they can try to buy the votes of the poor by promising them they will confiscate other people’s money. Just as Ed Miliband tried to do with his promise to thieve of landlords with rent controls at the last election. Now essentially copied by the appallingly incompetent (IHT ratter and tax, over complexity, borrow and piss down the drain) Osborne, but in a different rather softer way.

    • Sean O'Hare
      Posted December 20, 2015 at 1:20 pm | Permalink

      Reply to reply:

      I would be interested to learn how you get along with messrs Cummings & Elliott?

  9. Margaret
    Posted December 20, 2015 at 8:21 am | Permalink

    The problem probably derives from the fact that UKIP is a minority party. You may agree with the sentiments , but votes win and deeply embedded in our way of life is a 2 bedded system which sometimes stretches to a 3 party system. You don’t go to a boys school football match with one ex professional coach to win the premiere league.
    Speaking to Asian women who have married into a higher male salaried position , their outlook on life is carried with them from their own ex countries where hierarchy is everything. The patter goes ‘ We vote for the Conservatives because we are posh , we are at a higher social level and you are just employed ,are a women struggling so you will vote labour. Of course my reply does not matter as power over money has a louder voice.

    I recently went to a conference open to all health professionals. Up to the break the speaker kept addressing the audience as’ we doctors ., this I found offensive. In the break I commented that the conference was open to all professionals and would he include us as Nurses when speaking about the various aspects of the conference, however this was completely ignored and the ‘we doctors’ theme was forced even more strongly.

    This is money and people who collectively think that they are superior to everyone else and in reality it pays to belong , however much you complain about the mindless morons . So UKIP ppers might have the sentiments , but not being powerful already will not get the power.

    • Margaret
      Posted December 20, 2015 at 9:32 am | Permalink

      Just listening to the Andrew Marr show . The politicians think it is their job to fight the Tories. Why do they think they their job is not to convince the people that what they are offering is better. I am not interesting in these politicians who think that slagging each other is good. Jeremy Corbyn is setting a good example and this doesn’t mean that he will get more votes, but his behaviour is British.

      • Margaret
        Posted December 20, 2015 at 9:36 am | Permalink

        pardon ; interested….

    • Lifelogic
      Posted December 20, 2015 at 11:36 am | Permalink

      At the last EU elections UKIP were the biggest party in terms of votes and seats.

  10. Ex-expat Colin
    Posted December 20, 2015 at 8:25 am | Permalink

    “Mr Farage has reacted so angrily ” Did he? I thought he said Carswell was constantly whining. Its all about awkward words at the wrong time(s)

    ” as that presumably remains their prime reason for existing?

    I suppose it sounds like that but the other parties are less than convincing on the “leave” business. Perhaps English voters might now be aware that the SNP has gained some considerable ground and is threatening to damage UK. UKIP hasn’t related to anything like that.

    Despite the figures I don’t think we will be out. And I simply cannot imagine/guess why so many people want to stay in. I could so easily say its money/self interest. UK appears to be slowly committing suicide, such a lack of common sense…as Trump also says.

    Its the common sense piece that eliminates much in the way of bridge building. Clearly one man’s common sense is definitely not many others? Difficult to get round that one.

  11. Richard1
    Posted December 20, 2015 at 8:27 am | Permalink

    Amazing that 33% would vote to make Jeremy Corbyn prime minister and John McDonnell chancellor of the exchequor! If there’s any chance of that we are better off in the EU for all its faults, due to the various treaty restrictions on the imposition of socialism (nationalisation, arbitrary confiscation etc).

    • Lifelogic
      Posted December 20, 2015 at 11:21 am | Permalink

      They do not need “arbitrary confiscation” they just over regulate and tax everything to death. Whole industries such as energy are absurdly handicaps and controlled. Hence the appalling economic performance of the whole EU region.

      Anyway what is 40% inheritance tax but “arbitrary confiscation” and what is the effect of Osborne’s taxation on non profits on Landlords but “arbitrary confiscation”. Indeed nearly all tax is “arbitrary confiscation” it just confiscates it over a few years rather than in one fell swoop.

      • Lifelogic
        Posted December 20, 2015 at 11:22 am | Permalink

        Thus destroying most incentives to create the wealth in the first place.

      • Bazman
        Posted December 21, 2015 at 1:47 pm | Permalink

        You have had the fact that IHT is a tax on wealth given to relatives in many cases have doe nothing for this money put to you a number of times. This should be interesting for you Landlord Martyrs being saved from your own greed.
        Read it properly and comment please if you are able.
        http://www.theguardian.com/money/2015/dec/20/buy-to-let-ignore-landlord-martyrs-time-for-bank-to-act

        • Anonymous
          Posted December 21, 2015 at 8:52 pm | Permalink

          Bazman – Presumably there is money left in the deceased’s estate that was not needed for state care.

          So what has the State (and the parasites it chooses to feed) done to deserve the money either ?

          PS, £1000 a week care home fees are typical. Not because the patient receives £1000 of service but because the welfare dependent in the room next is being subsidised by him.

    • Original Richard
      Posted December 20, 2015 at 1:38 pm | Permalink

      Sorry, but you are wrong.

      If we are not a member of the EU we would be able to vote out Mr. Corbyn and Mr. McDonnell if we didn’t like their “nationalisation, arbitrary confiscation etc..”

      But as a member of the EU we have no way of voting out our EU law makers and have no influence upon laws, directives and decisions as can be seen by the results of Mr. Cameron’s last EU meeting.

      • Robert Christopher
        Posted December 20, 2015 at 6:28 pm | Permalink

        No only does the EU lack democracy, its leaders in Brussels have no idea about Capital Markets or international trading outside the EU. Just look at the mess the Euro has become: it is just a financial wine lake. Remember those!
        It didn’t understand the reason for the bond spread differential between German and Greek Bonds. It was helpless. I can’t see capitalism thriving under ‘ever closer union’.

        • Lifelogic
          Posted December 22, 2015 at 12:55 am | Permalink

          Exactly. the EU it is an anti-democratic, socialist disaster area.

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted December 20, 2015 at 3:44 pm | Permalink

      I much prefer the attitude of Norman Tebbit, who once said:

      “If the British people vote for socialism they should get socialism”.

      That’s how democracy should work, you see; if people vote for something they should get it, or as close as may be practicable, even if it happens that you don’t like it and you would be prepared to call for foreign intervention to stop it.

      But the traitor Heath saw it your way, as Norman Tebbit recounted.

  12. MikeP
    Posted December 20, 2015 at 8:44 am | Permalink

    Cameron’s mantra has been, “Britain is better off in a reformed Europe” so there remains the huge task of convincing sceptics, and others hanging on this hope, that the EU is capable of any meaningful reform when it’s central proposition is full political union – I have my doubts. PMs tend to worry about their legacy and it is (for me) impossible to believe that he would want his legacy to be taking us out of the EU, since he seems incapable of voicing an optimistic future for the UK outside.
    As for Farage, I agree with Carswell to a point that Farage is harming the campaign. Whilst it’s to be expected that the vagaries of the EU will be aired throughout, this must be balanced by much more optimism and trust in what a return to the global trading stage would be like. People may be thinking “out of the frying pan, into the fire” so a vision of the new world is at least as important as the near certainty of the status quo.
    Given their name, I’m very surprised that UKIP’s message has been so anti-EU (negative, moaning, pessimism, shackles) rather than pro-independence (positive, optimism, hope, freedom, growth). The Mail has carried more headlines than most on this with our trade statistics outside the EU, but we need much more hard evidence to convert floating voters.

    Although Carswell is right to say UKIP needs a more positive message, he hasn’t helped with his recent string of tweets about how the country is so much better off now than historically since that suggests all is well with the status quo. He needs to do far more to paint an optimistic picture of a future freed up from the EU’s protectionist grip.

  13. Malcolm Stevas
    Posted December 20, 2015 at 8:52 am | Permalink

    Mr Redwood, your advice is sound that UKIP should “put much else aside and … help win the referendum for Leave”, but it must be repeated that the present relative strength of the “Out” position is due in no small measure to UKIP. Given especially the PM’s lack of bottom, indeed his personal preference for staying in the EU, it seems unarguable that UKIP pressure has brought about changes in his public attitude, and has solidly reinforced the (historically) weak, vacillatory, ambiguous attitude toward the EU of the Parliamentary Conservative Party. Four decades, for the greater part of which the Conservatives were in government, and very little of substance achieved in strengthening the UK’s position vis-a-vis the EU…
    As for those numbers, let us remember that UKIP’s vote share in this year’s Election increased very much more than that of any other Party; that it recorded 12.6% of the vote, the same as the LibDems and the SNP combined; that while those two Parties received 64 seats, UKIP got just one; and that such gross inequities bolster the determination of former Conservative supporters like myself to continue supporting UKIP.
    Let’s get things clear. If the “Out” position is stronger now, UKIP can justly claim a great deal of the credit. And while the two established major Parties are determined to keep the cocky upstart UKIP out of the running, taking Buggins’s turn at government, UKIP is still in the ring.
    And I like Nigel Farage. I’ve seen and heard him speak. He says good things, and he says them very well. So does Douglas Carswell – and other UKIP figures. They’re not going away, and neither are their supporters.

    • fedupsoutherner
      Posted December 20, 2015 at 10:20 am | Permalink

      And Dr Liam Fox said this morning on the Andrew Marr show that he would be prepared t work with Nigel Farage and UKIP on the leave issue. He would put personalities aside for the good of the cause. Well done him!

      • Leslie Singleton
        Posted December 20, 2015 at 3:23 pm | Permalink

        Dear fedup–Yes, if we cannot have Allister Heath let’s have Liam Fox as Prime Minister–I see that the incumbent we are stuck with is completing his “women are identical” stuff in the military now. Let’s hope he and we do not ever have to face, and on television all over the world to boot, what a crazed jihadi might decide to do publically to a woman, that’s before cutting her throat. Apart from that, women do still have PMS and the menopause, and the associated hormonal changes, which have no place on a battlefield–never mind pregnancy. Typical, ghastly, modernising, Cameron, the very antithesis of what a Conservative leader should be. I rather doubt that his policies on women are as popular as he thinks.

        • Leslie Singleton
          Posted December 20, 2015 at 6:33 pm | Permalink

          Sorry–Publicly

  14. mike fowle
    Posted December 20, 2015 at 8:52 am | Permalink

    John, at the last PMQs, Douglas asked a sensible and specific question about the Prime Minister’s renegotiations. Cameron did not even try and give a sensible answer, merely sneering at Carswell. As UKIP’s sole MP, Douglas effectively speaks for the 3.8 million who voted UKIP. He had to wait four months to pose a question. (The SNP with a fraction of UKIP’s votes ask two questions each week.) I am afraid Cameron’s behaviour confirmed the impression that he is unworthy to be PM. Why on earth should we put any trust in the man?

    Reply Mr Carswell can ask questions of the government most days when Parliament meets if he wishes.

    • alan jutson
      Posted December 20, 2015 at 12:17 pm | Permalink

      Reply – reply

      Come on John, Camerons treatment of Carswell as a joke just angered 4,000,000 voters and a whole host of others, who despise politicians of all Parties who refuse to answer a simple question in a straight manner from their only representative.

      Cameron may have got a cheap laugh on the day in Parliament, but I hope it costs him dear, and encourages more to vote against him in future.

    • graham1946
      Posted December 20, 2015 at 2:08 pm | Permalink

      Reply to reply.

      Of course, but he still won’t get any answers from the PM – no-one does. The very poor Speaker is as much to blame as anything else – he should insist that substantive answers are given to proper questions and rule out of order the sycophantic ‘does the PM agree with me that he is brilliant in all respects’ kind of dross that just wastes Parliamentary time. Cameron sneered at Carswell when he was in their team, so he won’t change now. His is the old Etonian ‘we are born to rule’ arrogance of yesteryear and it doesn’t go well with the voters. He achieved victory not through his brilliance but by the dire opposition and the bent voting system. It may not happen again. There may be surprises in store.

      • alan jutson
        Posted December 20, 2015 at 6:27 pm | Permalink

        graham

        Agree.

      • Lifelogic
        Posted December 22, 2015 at 12:58 am | Permalink

        Mainly he was returned because no one wanted the SNP tail wagging the Ed Milliband dog.

  15. Old Albion
    Posted December 20, 2015 at 9:27 am | Permalink

    Cameron will fool the people with lies and false promises about change in the EU.
    If his lies succeed, we will never again be given a chance to leave the country called ‘Europe’

    • Lifelogic
      Posted December 20, 2015 at 11:43 am | Permalink

      Whereas if we vote out we will surely have plenty of opportunities to return, were we so foolish as ever to want to. They want us in, this will certainly not change if we vote for out, better terms will be offered after the referendum that is certain. I have no confidence that a leader in the Cameron/Major/Heath mode would respect the referendum result. He does not respect any of the cast iron or no if no buts promises he makes after all.

      • Leslie Singleton
        Posted December 20, 2015 at 11:06 pm | Permalink

        Dear Lifelogic–I agree with you that after a vote to leave, and irrespective of what Cameron says now, some sort of new arrangement will definitely be made, possibly, again ignoring the contrary drivel from Cameron, needing another referendum, though that’s a different story; but where I slightly disagree is that we shouldn’t be describing any such new arrangement as “In” or even close, no more than Canada is “in” any kind of Union with the USA. No more political instructions from Brussels under any circumstances. John Major whom I have just (not) had the pleasure of listening to is of course a buffoon.

        • Lifelogic
          Posted December 22, 2015 at 1:02 am | Permalink

          Alas a dangerous buffoon, given the endless airtime the BBC give to this halfwitted & unapologetic buffoon.

  16. Margaret
    Posted December 20, 2015 at 9:58 am | Permalink

    I would like a discussion which was televised and well broadcasted with John Redwoods , John Major and Jeremy Corbyn talking about Brexit and each given as much respectful time to interact.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted December 22, 2015 at 1:06 am | Permalink

      No chance whatsoever of that on the BBC. Pro EU people Clark, Cameron, Major, Heseltine …. are only ever asked questions such as “What thoughts would you like to impart to the nation today” Sir ?

      Leave the EU people are all always accused of little Englander racism and being anti-immigrant. They are not they are for sensible but selective immigration.

  17. Margaret
    Posted December 20, 2015 at 9:59 am | Permalink

    Redwood.. sorry… . keyboard sticking.

  18. Bert Young
    Posted December 20, 2015 at 10:58 am | Permalink

    The freedom to speak one’s mind is inherent in our culture , so , let Carswell have his say and also -most importantly , let members of the Cabinet . The suggestion made public that Boris may become Foreign Secretary is nothing more than a defensive Cameron effort ; Cameron is very scared of having anyone of the charisma that Boris has on the “Leave” side .

    I have no argument in the way %ages have been outlined and the way voters may behave when it comes to the referendum ; I believe that it is all down to the “undecided”. Influential and trusted figures have a very important role to play in the coming months in persuading the “undecided” to vote “Brexit”; how they do this has a lot to do with the media and the extent to which their efforts are co-ordinated . Liam Fox has come out of his shell with a strong message – hopefully followed by others – young and old .

    The road to freedom is now here for everyone to grasp ; British values must come to the fore and set an example to the mis-guided and heads in the cloud individuals who must be brought to see sense . The EU is a defunct mechanism fraught with bureaucracy and delusion ; we want no part of it and seek “Out”at the earliest opportunity .

  19. oldtimer
    Posted December 20, 2015 at 11:12 am | Permalink

    There is an interesting post today on politicalbetting.com about the failure of the two competing Leave groups to reach an accomodation. The author, TSE, argues that immigration is too narrow an issue on which to expect to win a majority for the Leave campaigns. He argues that focus on wider issues is more likely to succeed.

    It occurred to me, when reading this, that the focus Cameron is giving to the benefits issue, and the likely compromises that the rest of the EU will agree to, is carefully calculated. It is intended to undermine, if not actually kill, immigration as an issue of concern to enough voters. It has the effect of directing attention away from the more fundamental issue of national sovereignty. In this context the division between the Leave camps is a godsend the the PM and makes his chances of winning the Stay vote immensely stronger.

  20. Tom William
    Posted December 20, 2015 at 12:20 pm | Permalink

    Regardless of UKIP’s arguments and policies, or Farage’s undoubted ability as a speaker, anyone who knows anything about UKIP’s history knows that large numbers of sensible, dedicated and hard working office holders have left UKIP, or been sacked by Farage, because he is and always has been a one man band who can not allow anyone else to shine, or disagree, lest they become a rival. It is also true that his judgement of people is bad and he has promoted or brought into the party (eg Silk) people who were clearly unsuitable.

  21. MPC
    Posted December 20, 2015 at 12:43 pm | Permalink

    I think we are making good progress in heading towards the voting numbers which you confirm we need. A number of ‘waverers’ are saying to me that they understand our broad democratic post EU vision, but would still like to be convinced in terms of the detail of what happens post-exit to existing contractual and treaty commitments. I think Stuart Rose in today’s Sunday Times is using this argument , in effect saying ‘you can’t spell out exacutely what happens post-Brexit and you are being economical because we’ll have to continue to abide by EU rules so you are risking our trade with the EU’.

    I think this is highly bogus as I believe we’d be a trader with the EU like any other independent nation. Nonetheless we could do with some more guidance on how to counter this – i.e. the mechanics of what will happen and more detailed points to make – with the waverers we know. Could I suggest you might help us – and also perhaps write yourself to the Sunday Times, countering Stuart Rose’s fear mongering, with a view to publication in the next edition?

  22. ChrisS
    Posted December 20, 2015 at 12:48 pm | Permalink

    “The crucial task now for UKIP must be to put much else aside and to help win the referendum for Leave, as that presumably remains their prime reason for existing”.

    I agree with your analysis but fundamentally disagree with your conclusion.

    Like it or not, Mr Farage is the (almost ) undisputed leader of UKIP. He is popular in the country and without doubt he is the best know politician in the NO camp among the general population. We know that subtlety is not his strongest attribute and, yes, it would be better if he toned down his act a little but his reputation is built on straight talking which, as we have seen with Corbyn, is something the public likes to see.

    There is no doubt that the issue of mass immigration is the number one concern among voters, something Nigel Farage worked out very early on. Carswell may not like that but the No campaign has to make firm control of our own borders and immigration one of the leading issues, especially as Cameron is highly vulnerable on the issue because he not even asking for anything that will be effective in returning border control to our shores.

    How can deliberately attempting to undermine Nigel Farage and sabotage UKIP possibly help to achieve Carswell’s stated aim of Brexit ?

    To openly attempt to promote disunity within UKIP at the most crucial time in its history is utterly insane. Carswell even says he is not interested in the leadership for himself so his behaviour is even more inexplicable.

    Douglas Carswell needs to shut up and work with everyone on the NO side to win the referendum. Nothing more, nothing less. If he can’t or won’t do that he needs to go on a very long holiday.

    • Robert Christopher
      Posted December 20, 2015 at 6:32 pm | Permalink

      Clacton isn’t far way.

    • Chris
      Posted December 20, 2015 at 9:52 pm | Permalink

      In complete agreement with you, ChrisS

  23. Peter Davies
    Posted December 20, 2015 at 12:57 pm | Permalink

    If your analysis is correct and given the history of eu type referendums you could just imagine a,51 or 52% our vote being told by eu puppet masters to run it again until they get the “right” answer. The out campaign needs all the unity and support it can get. Not an easy ask at all

  24. fedupsoutherner
    Posted December 20, 2015 at 1:30 pm | Permalink

    I just hope that all Conservative ministers are going to be allowed to have freedom of speech when campaigning for the OUT vote. Isn’t it about time some of the Tories actually said they would like a change of leader? There are not many contributors to this post that support Cameron and I cannot believe that all members of the cabinet fully support Cameron either. Those that wanted to vote UKIP in the election might be wishing they had instead of supporting someone as weak as Cameron. Major was going on about what a great country the UK was this morning and listing all our advantages and good points but then went on to say that we need the EU!! More like they need us. With everything going for us why do we want someone else dictating all the rules? It is great to see someone like Dr Fox coming out and speaking against membership of the EU.

  25. turbo terrier
    Posted December 20, 2015 at 1:30 pm | Permalink

    I am not so sure about the listening to one another in the UKIP party, at this present moment of time.

    It would be a lot better if the Prime Minister and his Cabinet started to listen to the 100+ back benchers and nearly all the majority of participants to your entries.

    The only thing that is going to get us out of Europe is the PM leaving post. He has had a good run along with some of the others but the perception is ” he is not cutting the mustard” All the man has to do is state ” I will leave if the wish of the country is to leave the EU” We will win by a landslide!!

    If people think we will be better off the “European Army model” is rearing its ugly head again. It will not stop there.

    The few will dominate and control the masses. Agenda 21???

  26. forthurst
    Posted December 20, 2015 at 2:29 pm | Permalink

    “I find it disappointing if not surprising that Mr Farage has reacted so angrily to Mr Carswell’s question as to whether UKIP now needs new leadership with a different approach to its policies and its message.”

    Why is it surprising that Farage should be angry at Carswell’s public attack on his leadership? Carswell is rather more maverick Tory than UKIP. By voting for bombing Syria, Carswell has clearly not understood UKIP’s desire for a strong militiary, but one which is there to defend the national interest rather than being used as a tool of NATO, the military wing of the neocon skunks. As such he is comes rather lower in my estimation than those principled Tories who voted against bombing Syria without permision or co-ordination of its government or abstained.

    Farage was able to create a coalition of seven different state parties to form the Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy after Daniel Hannon had sabotaged his prior grouping on behalf of the the European Conservatives and Reformists which claims to be Eurosceptic but is clearly Europhile as it believes that the EU is reformable, a position which is only tenable to those with special needs.

    However, Farage is a divisive figure both in his party and in the country, particularly amongst women; furthermore, following a degree of acrimony during the general election, probably born of frustration with how the FPTP deeply undemocratic system, of which JR thoroughly approves, was blocking any realistic expectation of a breakthrough to an equitable represention in the HoC, there was a bust up which left several highly regarded figures muzzled and sidelined, as a result exposing by default how talent within that party was thin on the ground. Farage for the sake of the country’s future must bite his tongue and invite back into the fold those who have a positive and coherent message in support of Leave so that all bases, not just uncontrollable immigration, are well covered in the campaign. The stakes are far too high for egos and personality clashes to obtrude. Dumping Farage with a potentional referendum in six months time is a deeply risky option because there is no one close to Farage in terms of charisma and public speaking ability.

    Reply Mr Hannan is one of the most able and articulate voices of the Leave campaign. Is there no-one apart from Mr Farage that you trust on this issue?

    • forthurst
      Posted December 21, 2015 at 10:40 pm | Permalink

      “Reply Mr Hannan is one of the most able and articulate voices of the Leave campaign. Is there no-one apart from Mr Farage that you trust on this issue?”

      No. I’m saying there is no one else in UKIP with Farage’s public presence; I’m not discounting many articulate Tories including JR himself. However, if a party which is all about Leave is unable to offer a serious and credible front that could be used as a stick by the opposition to beat the campaign as a whole.

      Bearing in mind the fact that UKIP won the European Parliamentary election and had the most MEPS, all 100% outers, it was decidedly damaging to the cause of Euroscepticism for Hannan to attempt to use the EU’s deeply undemocratic qualification for EU groupings to attempt to remove the public voice from those who had the same policy as himself by recruiting erstwhile associates of UKIP into the pretend Eurosceptic grouping.

  27. ian
    Posted December 20, 2015 at 2:34 pm | Permalink

    The case for out has not been made clear for N Ireland, Scotland, wales, and London. The question is how do you make out, look good for these people, what will they get if they vote for out, do they get Eu grant money, paid by England, do they get a share of the 10 billion your save by coming out, will they have more powers being out , can they have vote on leaving the uk if the eu would like to takeover our payment to them and if do not like it after five in the eu, they can vote to come back to the uk and start their payments again. Can keep the even if they are in the EU.
    IT not clear them or me, are you running a out vote or sitting on your hands.

  28. ian
    Posted December 20, 2015 at 2:36 pm | Permalink

    Keep the pound even if they are in the EU.

  29. Gary
    Posted December 20, 2015 at 2:53 pm | Permalink

    Mr Carswell , an intelligent man who understands economic freedom better than most in Westminster, was practically pushed under the bus by the clamour on his own blog to defect to UKIP. They should be ashamed for their lack of foresight. Sure, he should have ignored it all and stayed where the power is and operated from within, so now he’s trapped with Farage. The latter has shown himself to be a petty dictator and the party a ragtag of misfits. The electorate saw right through that lot, and so to his credit did our host.

  30. Maureen Turner
    Posted December 20, 2015 at 3:38 pm | Permalink

    If and when we get this ever promised referendum I sincerely hope most voters will put their party political allegiances behind them as this should be an apolitical vote. We are voting on the very sovereignty of the UK ie., it’s self determination, probably the most precious thing any country can hold and we know from your daily blogs you are of the same opinion.

    Mr. Farage has repeatedly said – I paraphrase – he would sup with the devil to get the UK out of the EU. Yes, he is bombastic at times and non PC but after many years of monochrome politics he’s a breath of fresh air.

    I’m afraid Mr. Carswell is going to have to find his own political salvation but it certainly isn’t as the Leader of UKIP. Just imagine if you asked the PM to stand aside for someone else. Well, we know you wouldn’t do that but if anyone did all hell would break loose. My old Tory Party got rid of the best PM in modern times some 18 years ago and it has never recovered, not even to this day.

    We must all work for the same aim – to break free off the EU – that’s all that matters and with the help of Lord Lawson leading the Leave Con. Campaign, plus several cabinet ministers, yourself and Mr Farage we just might do it.

  31. Tad Davison
    Posted December 20, 2015 at 3:46 pm | Permalink

    At the time of the 2005 Conservative Party leadership election, I wrote a 17 page treatise entitled ‘From the Ground up – a voting man’s perspective’. It wasn’t for general publication, just four out of the five candidates received it (and I bet you can guess which one I ignored!), and a few other notables whom I knew would be interested. It gave an account of where the Tories had been, the policies that had worked, and the ones that didn’t. It also projected a line forwards into the future, and what would happen if the warnings from history went unheeded. The points needed to be said, and from someone outside the Westminster bubble.

    Happily, it was fairly well received and I thought progress had genuinely been made, but Cameron was duly elected, and progress thereafter was painfully slow with the Conservative Party only gaining a majority ten years later in a negative, tactical way from the fear instilled in the minds of the public by the prospect of having Miliband and Sturgeon calling the shots.

    One of the candidates in the 2005 leadership election made a speech shortly afterwards in which he said something to the effect that, ‘the first rule of a Conservative, was not to criticise a fellow Conservative’. That’s fine, but it depends upon how you define ‘Conservative’. Some of them, such as the one I omitted from the above list, are anything but Conservative, and are therefore fair game.

    So in essence, I agree that we on the ‘Out’ side of the political equation all need to pull in the same direction, and garner every bit of support we can get from whatever quarter, but there are those who aren’t quite yet wholly with us on every issue. Perhaps Mr Carswell, for whom I have the greatest respect, should hold his personal reservations in check for the moment whilst we present a united front in the much greater battle for this nation’s very survival as a self-governing entity, free from the debilitating harness of the burgeoning federal EU superstate that threatens to consume us.

    It really IS that serious!

    Tad Davison

    Cambridge

  32. matthu
    Posted December 20, 2015 at 3:46 pm | Permalink

    John Major asks what would happen if we left the political EU:
    “The point is would we be as safe? No. Would we be as well off? No. Would we be as influential? No.”

    Why would leaving the EU adversely affect our well-being? Would we not be able to substitute our EU immigrants with even better-earning immigrants if we had the benefit of being able to select how many and whom we wanted from anywhere else in the world?

    Would we not be more influential as we would presumably be able to retain our seat on various world bodies such as the WTO/G7/G8 that we would otherwise sooner or later be forced to give up in favour of the EU?

    Would we not derive greater influence by being able to bolster our defence forces and defend our own border? By being free to criticise the policies of the EU?

    And would we not be safer if we were able to security vet those coming across our border? If we were able to quality check the meat that we imported? If we were able to choose our own mix of energy to safeguard continuity of supply without being dictated to by an external political elite?

    Remember that it was John Major who took us into Maastricht without explaining the fine print. Who also took us into the ERM in preparation for joining the Euro.

  33. Gina Dean
    Posted December 20, 2015 at 3:57 pm | Permalink

    If we are foolish to vote to stay in the EU after all this with no visible sign of renegotiation. We will be crucified by the countries in the EU. They will take this country for everything they can lock stock and barrel.
    There will be no recourse for us.

    • Robert Christopher
      Posted December 20, 2015 at 6:36 pm | Permalink

      Cameron’s strategy is a lose, lose plan. Whatever the outcome, everyone, on both sides of the argument will be ‘unhappy’.

  34. Denis Cooper
    Posted December 20, 2015 at 4:03 pm | Permalink

    The reality is that those controlling the three old parties have a strong joint interest in the suppression of UKIP, not only because it is new competition for votes but also because it stands against what they most fundamentally believe in, and they have been prepared to collaborate with each other and with most of the mass media to that end.

    That isn’t completely true for all of those in leading positions in the old parties, and it is much less true for ordinary members of their parties, and even less true for those who usually vote for their parties, but it is true for those who are in control.

    Some UKIP supporters put on a brave face and try to work on the principle that there is no such thing as bad publicity, and all the smearmongering and scaremongering will only make UKIP stronger, but that is a false principle. Plus, the First Past The Post System will always work against new parties who are trying to butt their way in, there being no prize for coming second – which UKIP did in 129 constituencies in the last general election.

    However all this is really besides the point, which is that those of us who want to leave the EU have to set aside party differences and work together to win that fight.

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted December 20, 2015 at 4:04 pm | Permalink

      120.

    • petermartin2001
      Posted December 20, 2015 at 10:55 pm | Permalink

      Denis,

      UKIP used to be known as the Referendum Party. Their raison d’etre was to force a referendum on EU membership. That’s now been achieved so there’s really not much point voting for them any longer. That was a key reason for their poor showing in Oldham.

      So whichever way the EU referendum does go that’s still likely to be the case in 2020. UKIP are finished effectively.

      Their only possible chance would be if the result is close. If there are perceived irregularities and the Govt decided to not come out or decided not to call for a new referendum that could give them a second life.

      • Denis Cooper
        Posted December 21, 2015 at 9:08 am | Permalink

        No, UKIP was never known as the Referendum Party and as far as I know it has always been in favour of withdrawal from the EU not just a referendum on whether we should do that.

        • petermartin2001
          Posted December 22, 2015 at 2:13 pm | Permalink

          Denis,

          Yes you’re right. I should have checked my facts on UKIP’s history ! 🙂

  35. CHRISTOPHER HOUSTON
    Posted December 20, 2015 at 5:52 pm | Permalink

    I take it Mr Carswell has a right of reply on here JR? It would be fair. In truth I’ve not heard or seen the press reports of his ideas on “Change of Leadership”. He will probably get more coverage of his ideas if he were to make comments here than elsewhere.

    However, comments to your daily blog JR and replies to comments indicate there are quite a number of contributors here who do not in fact properly read what you say nor read other people’s comments properly. There are so many ad hominems and strawman arguments on here from Commenters that one quite expects an unnatural flock of robins to emerge from some Comments and a Reply to a Reply to a Reply suggesting the answerer would like a nice cup of tea and slice of cake from Aunt Sally.
    Well, I guess it IS Yuletide and many are typing whilst being sick on their computer keyboards and proclaiming “never-again” to their disbelieving and similarly prone and regurgitating spouses. I, of course, am moderate and balanced in all things.

    • libertarian
      Posted December 20, 2015 at 9:10 pm | Permalink

      CH

      Oh dear a completely silly attack on commentators on here telling them they aren’t fully aware of what is being said….. on a post by you that didn’t bother to become fully aware, read properly or understand Carswells ideas. He made them in a TV programme !!!!!

      Wibble

      • CHRISTOPHER HOUSTON
        Posted December 21, 2015 at 4:38 pm | Permalink

        libertarian: I think you will find that Commenters or even Commentors and not Commentators is the word you were straining for. Do continue with your reading exercises.

      • stred
        Posted December 21, 2015 at 8:10 pm | Permalink

        I like CH’s pieces, which sometimes contain some funny one liners. Yesterday, I read his description of the Yorkshire Moors being overrun by rabbits and sheep, eating all the purple flowers and leaving droppings under his groundsheet. Read it twice and thought he might be comparing the effect of migration on sewage and the greenbelt and pointed out that this might be seen as a crime by a PC PC and gave warning. I was wrong and was told to read it again. So was Jerry. And I hadn’t bugled over my laptop. Maybe he picked the wrong mushrooms while on the moors? Ad hominem not- just confused.

  36. Kenneth
    Posted December 20, 2015 at 7:44 pm | Permalink

    Nigel Farage gets the same media treatment as did Ronald Reagan, George Bush (both of them), Sarah Palin, and dare I say it, Donald Trump…and dare I say it Jeremy Corbyn.

    The problem is that the BBC/Guardian elite alongside New Labour die-hards have their naughty list and some senior UKIPers (Mr Carswell among them) think they cannot fight this dark power and feel they must ‘toe the line’ to get BBC air time.

    Unfortunately they are probably right. We are all being sucked into the dark side.

  37. Ken Moore
    Posted December 20, 2015 at 7:56 pm | Permalink

    It suits the Conservatives and Mr Carswell’s agenda to sideline Mr Farage as he refuses to kow tow to political correctness.
    Mr Cameron knows he cannot solve the immigration problem – so the next best thing is to demonise those that wish to highlight the problem.
    I can understand the attraction for John Redwood of Carswell’s position as it seems to be popular in electoral terms. In my view Mr Carswell just happens to work very hard engaging with his community and local issues – his slightly ‘not infront of the children’ PC politics and relentless optimism can both inspire and annoy in equal measure.

    The key point is.. Farage IS on the money . JR can’t dent that.
    Not getting elected doesn’t make him wrong – maybe if politicians were more willing to give unpopular messages we would all be a lot better off. We are living way beyond our means…..
    He does speak from the heart..what he says is generally what he believes….not what he thinks he should say to get elected.

    In my view Immigration is the Conservatives next ERM black Wednesday moment – they are sleepwalking (again) to disaster with a leader who (again) won’t listen.
    Yes they keep the plate spinning by fudging the figures and ploughing money into the NHS but it’s all going to end in disaster.
    Somewhere down the line, the public are going to realise that the numbers are much greater than those published ….and the peace and space that makes this country such an attractive place to live is being sold off under their noses….

    I can foresee public disorder if the emergency services break under the strain of a relentless increase in workload. London is a tinderbox as we saw with the recent riots. If people can get angry over one shooting…how will they react when the poor have to live on the streets as London runs out of beds ?.

    Mr Carswell and all those on his bandwagon will feel pretty silly for trying to shut down those that attempted to warn us of the dangers.

    Reply Be positive. Engage with the 88% who disagree with UKIP. Try and win this referendum!

    • Leslie Singleton
      Posted December 21, 2015 at 11:32 am | Permalink

      Reply to Reply–Dear John–Did you really write that, with your “88%” being presumably just 100% – 12%, which means nothing at all, or at least very little, as regards positive disagreement? Not putting a Party top is very far from saying that you “disagree” with it. I have said to you before that a simple numbers analogy, -10, 0, +10, is illustrative here. Just because only 12% were at +10 is light years away from saying that the other 88% were at -10. They could have been at 0 or indeed +9. Not terribly profound or accurately meaningful, I agree, but I think it clearly rebuts your 88%.

  38. Nigel
    Posted December 20, 2015 at 8:00 pm | Permalink

    JR: great analysis of the situation. It underlines how close it will be. It is essential for the “leave” campaign to be fully united. I believe that the voters we need to get to are those that are not very politically engaged, do not properly understand the issues, and have a natural fear of change. I think the message needs to be pretty simple and clear, and we all need to be singing from the same hymn sheet.

  39. Bob
    Posted December 20, 2015 at 9:17 pm | Permalink

    Mr Redwood,
    I don’t understand why at this crucial time Douglas decided to make the comment he did, and why you are stoking the spat between two people who are both in the Leave camp?
    I am at a loss to understand your motives. Is this some kind of Tory plot to get rid of Nigel?

    Reply Of course not. I want the Leave campaign to come together around views and language that allows us to win.

  40. petermartin2001
    Posted December 20, 2015 at 11:13 pm | Permalink

    EU has been built around… Socialist principles.

    There was considerable seduction of the left in earlier times of the EU but we’ve long since seen the last of that I would suggest.

    When Mrs Thatcher raised unemployment to unnecessarily high levels in the early 80’s, it wasn’t just socialists who objected. But they objected the most. They are starting to object again, about unemployment in the EU, but I would agree many still are in denial that they have been duped.

    To get them to face reality is the key to getting that LEAVE vote in the referendum. IMO.

  41. Anonymous
    Posted December 21, 2015 at 12:17 am | Permalink

    Farage using Carswell’s voice would no longer be Farage.

    He has said nothing wrong, in fact. The problem is that what he has said is blasphemy.

    Mass immigration ? No. Can’t mention that unless in terms of unalloyed approval for it.

    Welfare tourism ? Nope. Not allowed to mention that either.

    Health tourism ? Don’t dare mention it.

    Wage depression ? Housing shortages ? “You’re always scapegoating immigrants, you racist !” which is exactly how Farage was despatched in the Leader’s debates. It wasn’t actually him using the inflammatory and divisive language – it was Nichola Sturgeon.

    Farage is defeated in local elections by the deployment of vast resources against him.

    He has been hung out to dry by those too weak to rally to his side and proclaim that he is absolutely right – including on BBC bias. Instead we must play silly games with language couched within the boundaries of acceptability set by the Left.

    In fact the way to go now would not be to adopt the Carswell way but for all sceptics to say “Yes. Farage was right. He has been unfairly maligned. He has been brave to say the unsayable. And we have had enough of being told what we can and can’t say.” and then unify around that flag.

    Detoxify the cause and the man which was so unfairly toxified in the first place

    As it is the OUT argument is completely disarmed. The IN argument can be as loud, boorish, hysterical, shocking and as outlandish as it likes. It’s never been Farage to use crude language, rather everyone else including some Tory MPs. The proof here being that if he’d put a foot wrong he’d be off the scene altogether or even on trial for hate crime.

    So the voting figures. What do we do to improve them to ensure an OUT result ?

    Not much, I’m afraid. We have been silenced on our trump-card issue and the people have been made to feel bad about even thinking of it.

    All that’s left for us is to argue dry economics – and the vast majority of people don’t do economics. So that’s that then. (Ask any man on a bus what Carswell or Redwood thinks and they won’t have a clue.)

    We have no answer to “3 million jobs will be lost” The INs have all the horror to scare us with.

    One thing I would say in favour of an IN result. This country does not deserve the freedom, the peace nor the wealth that it enjoys. In that result there would at least be natural justice for its people.

    Reply Don’t be so negative! I want to win this referendum and offer sensible advice on how to. No-one is saying ignore migration and welfare – far from it – as this site testifies. How many times have we talked about it recently?

    • Ken Moore
      Posted December 21, 2015 at 2:21 pm | Permalink

      The British people, in general can’t be bothered …they would rather watch PJ and Duncan camping in a wood and have more passion for football or some boy band than the Eu debate.

      Not surprised that Dr Redwood and Mr Carswell are suggesting that voters should be treated more like children who aren’t to be worried or upset by unpleasant things.
      We must be ‘positive’ like parents tend to be with children. I guess we get the leadership that reflects our society.

    • Anonymous
      Posted December 22, 2015 at 7:04 am | Permalink

      Reply to reply – Thank you and sorry for being so negative.

      The immigration debate from the anti’s point of view is still largely suppressed, particulary by left wing politicians and broadcasters.

      At best those who ‘bang on about it’ are accused of being single issue politicians.

      Immigration affects EVERY issue.

      – the cost of housing

      – school places

      – jobs

      – hospital places

      – welfare

      – crime

      – defence

      – culture

      – carbon emissions… and on

    • Ken Moore
      Posted December 22, 2015 at 10:00 am | Permalink

      Just don’t mention the rise in HIV cases attributed to third world immigration or the return of TB to our shores. That might hurt someone’s feelings.

      It’s Ironic that we are being told to be more politically correct ..when we are fighting the implementation of European wide political correctness via the Eu.
      It’s madness.

      Anonymous- ‘One thing I would say in favour of an IN result. This country does not deserve the freedom, the peace nor the wealth that it enjoys. In that result there would at least be natural justice for its peopl’e.

      Well the stay in campaign seems to be based around the notion they are doing badly because ‘The case for staying in has never been put’.I keep hearing this time and time again. The case has never been put because it is based on lies, misinformation and the naked self interest of a narrow elite!.

      If the people can’t work out there is no rationale reason for handing their country over to an un-elected Eu elite… then perhaps they deserve to live on the crumbs that will be thrown to them by Mrs Merkel and Mr Juncker in the years ahead.

      If the Out campaign thinks it will win by some form of triangulation where it attempts to tip-toe down the middle of left and right opinion it is misguided.
      The Conservative party have been trying this for years and it’s hardly been a resounding success.

      The OUT campaign is starting to have the feel of the design office at British Leyland.
      A series of compromises will be made, so as not to hurt anyone’s ego and the result will be hopeless. Just tell the truth and let the case speak for itself!.
      The IN campaign don’t have that luxury.

  42. Lindsay McDougall
    Posted December 21, 2015 at 2:18 am | Permalink

    Mr Farage is right in asserting that immigration control is one of the main campaigning reasons for leaving the EU. I’m sorry if Mr Carswell does not like the tone but that’s just too bad. Reality is more important than tone.

  43. John Peers
    Posted December 21, 2015 at 3:28 am | Permalink

    John Redwood’s words.
    “I find it disappointing if not surprising that Mr Farage has reacted so angrily to Mr Carswell’s question as to whether UKIP now needs new leadership”

    John Redwood (along with me) is not surprised that Nigel Farage reacted so angrily. John Redwood gives the reason why below:-
    “The crucial task now for UKIP must be to put much else aside and to help win the referendum for Leave, as that presumably remains their prime reason for existing.”
    Douglas Carswell, (being part of UKIP) should have “put much else aside and to help win the referendum for Leave”
    His comments regarding Nigel Farage have not helped the “Leave” cause.

  44. Brian Tomkinson
    Posted December 21, 2015 at 9:39 am | Permalink

    Far more pertinent is that government ministers should be free to speak about the EU.
    Carswell was detracting from news about the EU summit regarding the ‘renegotiations’ by talking about an internal UKIP leadership matter. His actions were bizarre, inappropriate and concerned the future of UKIP not the EU referendum.
    On the rare occasion that Carswell is able to ask questions to the PM your leader, not unususlly, chooses to refuse to answer and instead makes party political jokes. Why don’t you have a word with him about that if you care so much about Carswell?
    The Westminster bubble has a loathing for Farage and will stop at nothing to undermine him. Perhaps it’s because he speaks his mind clearly and unambiguously and has shown that he has the foresight that so many of you are lacking.

    Reply I do no loathe him – I just want to win the referendum and note the relative polling of different parties and people in this debate. It’s all about numbers of votes.

    • Brian Tomkinson
      Posted December 21, 2015 at 12:20 pm | Permalink

      Reply to reply,
      Do you really think that Farage not being UKIP leader would in any way assist in winning the vote to leave?
      What is needed is concentration on the issues and not political parties. To me all those who want tthe UK to be self-governing once more are on the same side -party politics should have nothing to do with this vital issue.

    • Chris
      Posted December 21, 2015 at 8:52 pm | Permalink

      Fortunately, Liam Fox has seen the light and said quite clearly that Leavers should put aside personal dislike/contempt of other Leavers (you do give the impression in your Diary that you have a distaste for Nigel Farage or the idea of working with him, as well as seeming to mock the 4 million who have voted for UKIP as insignificant simply because they only have one MP) and concentrate on the issues instead. Liam Fox made it quite clear that he would willingly work with Nigel Farage – stand along side him – in the Leave campaign. Bravo! Do you agree with Liam Fox’s statement about Nigel Farage, Mr Redwood?

      Reply I have never made personal criticisms of Mr Farage, and wish to work with everyone out to help the Leave campaign. I do regularly remind you of the numbers, as it is numbers we need to win. We don’t need just 4 million, we need more than 15 million. UKIP does always stand against me in the elections to try to stop me winning and carrying on this work.

  45. adams
    Posted December 21, 2015 at 10:37 am | Permalink

    Mr Redwood could learn from Mr Carswell and start criticizing his bumbling two faced EU adoring PM who is negotiating minutiae on our behalf apparently . His Syrian policy is also a wonder to behold . Much room for a backbencher to go to town on John .

    • kenneth moore
      Posted December 21, 2015 at 7:02 pm | Permalink

      Agreed loyalty and duty are fine virtues but it would be a kindness if Dr Redwood had some harsh words for Mr Cameron.

  46. Lindsay McDougall
    Posted December 22, 2015 at 2:25 am | Permalink

    On the Andrew Marr show, Sir John Major asked:
    – Would we be safer outside the EU?
    – Would be more prosperous outside the EU?
    – Would we have more influence outside the EU?

    Sir John answered ‘No’ to each of the three questions. He is definitely wrong on the first two counts and the answer to the third question might depend on America. It would be interesting if Sir John would confide in us the source of danger were we to leave the EU. Germany? The emerging European SuperState?

    • Ken Moore
      Posted December 22, 2015 at 9:53 am | Permalink

      Here’s how John Major described leaving the ERM in September 1992: “The devaluer’s option, the inflationary option, a betrayal of the future of our country”. Four days later we left the ERM and embarked on 15 years of continuous low-inflation growth.

      Why does anyone listen to this man ?

  • About John Redwood


    John Redwood won a free place at Kent College, Canterbury, and graduated from Magdalen College Oxford. He is a Distinguished fellow of All Souls, Oxford. A businessman by background, he has set up an investment management business, was both executive and non executive chairman of a quoted industrial PLC, and chaired a manufacturing company with factories in Birmingham, Chicago, India and China. He is the MP for Wokingham, first elected in 1987.

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