Many things will stay the same when we leave the EU

When we leave the EU we will not leave Europe. We will still trade with them, have many agreements with them, we will travel, enjoy each other’s culture and language, foster student  exchanges, undertake joint research, common investment projects and much else.

Anyone from another member state currently living in the UK under the legal provisions of the EU treaties will be welcome to stay and will  be protected under international law anyway. So will all UK residents living in continental EU countries. It is only the rules about new entrants that will change.

An independent UK will still want to offer many university places to European students, and many UK students will still travel and study on the continent. The UK will remain an important part of the academic global community with many links and common programmes with our European, American and US allies and partners.

All the money that the EU sends to universities, farmers and others will be continued as UK government payments, as we have to send Brussels the money in order for them to send some of it back.

A free UK will still welcome in many qualified and talented people to take jobs here, and will make sure our border system allows UK business access to the talent worldwide it seeks. The new border controls will simply create a fairer system of control for people seeking low paid and unskilled jobs, with the same rules for non EU and EU people. It will also give us back the ability to limit the total numbers in any given year.

The UK leaving the EU will still be willing to import continental goods and services with no new restrictions on our trade. We can look forward to the rest of the EU wanting trade arrangements that preserve their present access to the UK market as they sell us so much more than we sell them.

The Labour, Conservative and Lib Dem parties are united in wishing to keep the EU employment laws that offer protections to UK employees. There are no proposals to water down employment protections on exit.

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103 Comments

  1. Mick
    Posted April 15, 2016 at 5:39 am | Permalink

    I for one want that stupid looking ring of stars on a blue back ground removing from my drivers license and car number plate and the word European also removed from my passport?

    Reply I agree. You can have the UK or English flag on your number plate which is What I do anyway

    • matthu
      Posted April 15, 2016 at 6:24 am | Permalink

      Yes you can do that – for now. There is simply no guarantee that the EU will not overturn this small right you currently enjoy.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted April 15, 2016 at 6:39 am | Permalink

      Indeed. Should we stay in it will doubtless not be that long before it becomes compulsory to have the EU flag tattooed on your forehead and displayed in every class room, school, university, public building, the House of Commons, the Lords court rooms, Buckingham Palace and the rest. With Beethoven’s 9th symphony blaring out at every public event. Get out now, it is the last chance.

      Give me my nice blue “United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland” passport back please.

    • Cheshire Girl
      Posted April 15, 2016 at 6:40 am | Permalink

      I agree. I still have a copy of my old blue passport, issued in 1968. I cant bear to throw it away. It made me so proud to be British. I dont want to be ‘European’ . I want us to have friendly relations with Europe, but not to be told what to do in virtually every aspect of our lives, by them. I sometimes question why we bother to vote for a Government in the UK, when it seems that so many of our laws are made in Europe. If this is the price of being in the EU, then in my opinion, the price is too high!

    • formula57
      Posted April 15, 2016 at 8:42 am | Permalink

      My replacement driver’s licence received last month not only had the EU flag (behind “UK”) in the top left corner but the Union flag midway down on the right. I wondered if it was subtle planning by the DVLC for a post-Brexit world.

    • Hope
      Posted April 15, 2016 at 9:00 am | Permalink

      Employment law point is a sham. When we leave the EU the govt of the day can do whatever it chooses. Blaire had 10 years to change employment laws and chose not to. What might be good for the other 27 nations might not be good for us. Our economies are different, our culture is different. If Cameron wants harmony with the other 27 nations why has he increased pensionable age. I would like it to be the same as the French that he cowardly sided with when they made threats to our nation.

      • Lifelogic
        Posted April 15, 2016 at 12:59 pm | Permalink

        As we can see over protective employment laws in the EU are a complete disaster for both the economy and even for the workers too in the end as their businesses fold unable to compete in the world.

        One of the best bonuses of leaving will be to get rid of the economic disaster that is Osborne. He too is barking up this mad “over protection” tree.

  2. Lifelogic
    Posted April 15, 2016 at 6:09 am | Permalink

    You say “It is only the rules about new entrants that will change.” But is this “new after the referendum result” or “new after we finally fully leave”? Will there be a two year window for hundreds of thousands more to arrive?

    “An independent UK will still want to offer many university places to European students” indeed, but so long as they pay the going rate (and also from anywhere else in the World too). But if they want to stay on they should have to apply and meet certain quality and earnings standards.

    They will not, one assumes though, any longer get the tax payer funded “loans” that so often are never repaid and are thus grants.

    We should however use the new freedoms, post the escape, to simplify tax laws, employment laws, the greencrap laws, the expensive energy agenda, the “renewable” grants and all the other red tape that binds the UK and prevents it from competing in the World.

    We need, post Brexit, to address the dire economy the Major/Bliar/Brown and especially Osborne that has delivered – a record peace time trade deficit, a huge PSBR, declining productivity, a huge government debt, dysfunctional public services, virtually no growth in GDP per head, an absurd tax system, no wage growth in real terms, the hugely damaging inheritance tax rates and his £1M threshold ratting, the attacks on pensions and landlord/tenants, the absurd complexities of the system. We want a country of aspiration not one of Cameron/Osborne socialism light.

    It is these changes that will deliver benefits of perhaps 100 times the mere fee the pay to the EU in order to be bound in their straight jacket.

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted April 17, 2016 at 2:38 pm | Permalink

      I was thinking that perhaps those who arrived during the run-up to our final departure from the EU should be given work permits initially for just a similar period, but potentially renewable, as opposed to those who have been here for much longer who could have open-ended work permits. It will also be necessary to draw up rules about their right to leave the UK and then re-enter and resume work. None of these details will present insuperable problems.

  3. bigneil
    Posted April 15, 2016 at 6:18 am | Permalink

    Off topic
    With 2000 a day being reported being picked up virtually from Libyan shores and taxied to Sicily and into Europe- -what happened to the proposal of “taking them back to Libya as soon as they were picked up”? = or are we to assume Dave will announce taxpayer=funded houses will be built until every bit of grass has gone, the benefits bill for our “EU allocated share” will continue ever upward, and that we will be a minority in our own country a damn sight quicker than is already forecast.

  4. Antisthenes
    Posted April 15, 2016 at 6:21 am | Permalink

    One thing is certain if we leave the EU we will get some or all of our sovereignty back. How much depends on what the new arrangement that we negotiate with the EU looks like. The Norway and Swiss options are the most onerous the Canadian option is better but leaves some things to be desired. The option adopted will determine how much of what you say will happen will.

    As far as I can see nobody is thinking of a British option nobody that matter that is which is in my mind the Canadian option plus. A trade deal more wide ranging than Canada’s plus a number of bilateral cooperation deals with the EU and individual member states. That ensures free trade, restricted movement of labour, no contribution and no sharing of resources like fishing.

    The mind boggles at the complexity of the unravelling of our membership because the EU will want at least an outcome that is similar to that of Norway or Switzerland probably more and the UK will not. Will not as long as the right UK people are in charge of the negotiations. However David Cameron is saying the right people will not be doing the negotiation. So expect his British solution which is more or less the same as if we remain in.

    Besides the negotiations will not get very far if DMC is involved he will be offered and accept some new concessions that amount to no more than what is on offer already which is not much reworded and will hold another ballot.

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted April 17, 2016 at 2:40 pm | Permalink

      See it as the start of a journey along a new path, with stopping places.

  5. matthu
    Posted April 15, 2016 at 6:27 am | Permalink

    What you aren’t allowed to do anymore is put your red EU passport in a blue leather holder emblazoned with UK insignia.

  6. Elsey
    Posted April 15, 2016 at 6:33 am | Permalink

    One thing you forgot Mr Redwood, we’d still get the sickening fawning over the “special relationship” from Washington’s lackeys in our government. Perhaps even more.

  7. The Active Citizen
    Posted April 15, 2016 at 6:35 am | Permalink

    Hello JR, you just keep rolling out great pieces day after day, thank you.

    There were many important messages in your article, for example: “When we leave the EU we will not leave Europe. “ There are many people who need to be told this.

    You also made the point about ex-pats – a big voting block which needs to be reassured.

    There’s also another group which we’re not really addressing – the young. This requires very different messages appropriate to their concerns. I know they’re less likely to vote but isn’t it important to have them onboard regardless?

    JR, did you see the piece on http://www.facts4eu.org/ this morning about the Government’s final legally-required report yesterday, on ‘rights and obligations of EU membership’? The summary on the news page is that it shows how the UK is no longer a sovereign nation.

    What a shameful report that was. I know civil servants are obliged to follow Government policy but it really was so selective as to be deceitful. Still, the facts they couldn’t hide are very damning anyway, so it’s no wonder the Government tried to bury it yesterday.

    • Hope
      Posted April 16, 2016 at 9:47 am | Permalink

      The young are being brainwashed by the education system (school and university) to promote EU. It is ingrained in the socialist fabric of the public services. Unfortunately Cameron has done nothing to change it. Blair did a good job to make it long lasting. I am only surprised the Tories have remained silent not to force Cameron’s hand. Maggie brought about long lasting change that has not been repealed. The two bored posh boys treading water enjoying the kudos of their position.

      • Lifelogic
        Posted April 16, 2016 at 5:29 pm | Permalink

        Not to mention the schools & BBC’s indoctrination & brainwashing with the catastrophic warming (the huge exaggeration of).

  8. Lifelogic
    Posted April 15, 2016 at 7:12 am | Permalink

    Just listening to Alastair Darling on Radio 4. I suppose he is better than Anna Soubry but who isn’t, the same clearly absurd arguments though.

    If we come out it will be “irrevocable” he says – well who would want to revoke it anyway? The truth is the EU are desperate to keep the UK in and would have us back for sure if we were foolish enough to want to return to serfdom.

    Then the old “inside we have certainty and the leavers cannot tell us what we will get if we leave argument”.

    Well the have the certainty that democracy in the UK will be dead and we will be broken up into mere regions of an anti-democratic, socialist, top down, one size fits all economic disaster area I suppose.

    Leave and we know we will be in charge of our destiny, economy and borders.

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted April 17, 2016 at 2:43 pm | Permalink

      Irrevocable unless you apply for re-admission by the usual Article 49 route, but that would mean re-admission without any previously held opt-outs.

  9. alan jutson
    Posted April 15, 2016 at 7:12 am | Permalink

    Good heavens, this sounds like common sense and seems very logical.

    No wonder the remain side are trying project fear, as there is no sensible argument against the above.

  10. alexmews
    Posted April 15, 2016 at 7:16 am | Permalink

    So – blue passports back then?

  11. Ian Wragg
    Posted April 15, 2016 at 7:21 am | Permalink

    One thing that I believe is when eventually the Euro zone get their full integration they will start on the language. Of course Germany will demand they all speak German as they are the paymasters but the French will demand a derogation on cultural lines.
    This must be Germanys end game. Pity that the language of computers and business is English.
    Perfidious Albion.

    • getahead
      Posted April 15, 2016 at 6:10 pm | Permalink

      And aviation of course.

  12. Know-dice
    Posted April 15, 2016 at 7:31 am | Permalink

    “All the money that the EU sends to universities, farmers and others will be continued as UK government payments, as we have to send Brussels the money in order for them to send some of it back.”

    This needs to be said by the Government, its one thing that they can actually confirm NOW, except they [the Government] are playing politics with this issue

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted April 15, 2016 at 12:38 pm | Permalink

      The government is behaving shamefully, deliberately creating unnecessary worry among various groups to bully them into voting to stay in the EU. And even among groups where most of them don’t even have votes in the referendum.

  13. Josef Stalin
    Posted April 15, 2016 at 7:46 am | Permalink

    Will someone please explain why if I leave a sports club taking my bat and ball home can I then expect they will fall over themselves to negotiate a favourable associate membership sort of deal on the basis I’m some sort of rich kid (or posing as such) and have a set of tiddley winks?

    • stred
      Posted April 15, 2016 at 12:38 pm | Permalink

      Hello Uncle Joe,
      Because, if you are one of the only three members paying a big subscription then the others will need to sell you access to the swimming pool and games in order to make enough to run the club. They will have to let you use some facilities. There probably may be some members who want to play with your tiddley winks too. And don’t forget you were on the same side as some of the others in the last punch up and duffed the richest member, who had moved into their houses and was making a nuisance, so they may want to be nice to you. Of course, if they were so daft as to expel you, there are several better and cheaper clubs in town.

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted April 15, 2016 at 12:39 pm | Permalink

      But you’re not some kind of rich kid, you’re a communist dictator!

      • Mitchel
        Posted April 16, 2016 at 10:39 am | Permalink

        Not that they are mutually incompatible!Like the chap with the funny haircut who inherited North Korea.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted April 15, 2016 at 1:01 pm | Permalink

      Because it is in their interest to do so, even more than it is in our interests.

    • Narrow Shoulders
      Posted April 15, 2016 at 2:12 pm | Permalink

      In this instance the club wishes to keep playing on our field so will most likely reach an accord.

    • Anonymous
      Posted April 15, 2016 at 2:14 pm | Permalink

      Joseph Stalin – I wouldn’t want to belong to a sports club that told my how to live at home, what bills I should pay, what laws I should obey, how many people can live in my house…

      The federalists have been taking the piss out of ordinary people for too long and this is what has brought us to the brink.

      I hope voters tell them to shove it.

    • CHRISTOPHER HOUSTON
      Posted April 15, 2016 at 2:37 pm | Permalink

      Josef Stalin;
      The Sports Club to which you refer is a cricket club.

    • matthu
      Posted April 15, 2016 at 3:11 pm | Permalink

      Poor analogy. The EU is not a “club” for the benefit of its members.

    • libertarian
      Posted April 15, 2016 at 3:21 pm | Permalink

      Dear Josef

      Couple of points here

      A country and a continent is NOT a sports club.

      If it were then I’m afraid you are plain wrong. I personally belong to 3 sports clubs in which due to age I no longer participate but have been given associate membership for all kinds of other reasons.

      To carry on with your silly analogy as a member of a club or association to which I pay a vast amount of memberships fees , having chosen to leave IF I ran the aforementioned club or association I would actually fall over myself to try to retain some form of connection with the leaving member to ensure we dont loose all of their income

      As the aforementioned club make a VAST amount of income from selling us tiddly winks I would think they would try very hard to make sure that we didn’t leave them with nothing.

      Oh and just to finish off, Any club or associations who’s members consistently vote to NOT want to be members, or who leave or who won’t or can’t pay the membership fees should really take a long hard look at itself.

      But then with a user name like that I guess you dont understand the concept of customer service or delivering a product or service or membership that someone wants to buy

      • Edward2
        Posted April 16, 2016 at 10:54 am | Permalink

        I agree Libertarian
        It is a very strange club where two thirds of members pay no subscriptions with most actually getting money given to them whilst the one third pay for everything.
        And yet all members have one vote.

    • zorro
      Posted April 15, 2016 at 4:53 pm | Permalink

      Er…..really…… I don’t think that this is a suitable analogy ?

      zorro

    • getahead
      Posted April 15, 2016 at 6:17 pm | Permalink

      The Germans will still want to sell us their motor cars after we have left.
      No favourable associate membership sort of deal will be necessary.

  14. Chris
    Posted April 15, 2016 at 8:02 am | Permalink

    A significant article highlighting our subservience to Brussels and the supremacy of EU law which appeared in D Tel.online last night:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/14/uk-obliged-judgments-of-european-courts-official-document-from-m/
    UK ‘obliged’ to accept judgments of European courts, official document from ministers ahead of EU referendum reveals
    “Britain is “obliged” to accept European Union laws and judgments, according to an official report slipped out by ministers ahead of the formal start of the referendum campaign.
    The 96-page paper, which was published without fanfare, was described by Brexit campaigners as the “Government report No.10 does not want you to read”.
    The document highlights the fact that Britain has to adopt EU law and accept the rulings of the European Court of Justice….”

  15. Chris
    Posted April 15, 2016 at 8:05 am | Permalink

    Another gem for the Brexiters, reported in the Express. Rutte, Dutch PM, admits to having been ordered by Brussels not to discuss the Dutch referendum vote in Parliament until after the UK referendum. Quite extraordinary, and yet I am really not surprised:
    http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/661195/Dutch-referendum-Brussels-ban-MPs-Ukraine-deal-Brexit-EU
    GAGGED: Brussels tells Dutch MPs they CAN’T debate referendum result as it may fuel Brexit

    BRUSSELS has effectively banned Dutch MPs from discussing their country’s historic referendum result because it is exposing the EU’s undemocratic core and boosting calls for a Brexit…….
    By Nick Gutteridge

  16. agricola
    Posted April 15, 2016 at 8:06 am | Permalink

    I agree with what you say, and hope it can be achieved without acrimony. The EU reaction to the recent Dutch referendum on Ukraine suggests otherwise however, so be prepared.

    Today we have the publication, unheralded, of the “Rights and Obligations of EU Membership.” These were I assume largely enabled by the 1972 Communities Act. As no doubt were many of the items you mention today. On Brexit, do we clear it from the statute book and then, via Parliament, re-introduce any aspects of it we wish to retain.

    I would hope that on leaving the EU we can establish that the UK is fundamentally a state based on Christian principals under one rule of law enacted by Parliament. This has been severely eroded over many recent years. Not just by the EU, but by UK politicians who have worshipped at the altar of multiculturalism. We cannot continue with (the current approach ed)It is very serious and needs to be tackled in the way that Australia has proved to be so effective.

    You make no mention of the estimated 2 million illegals in the UK. Will they be systematically removed. Additionally our jails contain a disproportionate number of foreign criminals. Can it be established that deportation is their destiny on sentence completion, or before if at all possible. Such action would relieve pressure on our NHS, schools, social services, transport and housing.

    The reaction of the EU to the Dutch vote suggests to me , that in a fit of pique they could be less than helpful on a Brexit vote. I do not see Cameron having the will or interest to face them down. He has been so illogically pro EU, as has the BBC, and our civil service, that all will be in need of radical change if we are to effect a swift and positive separation. I hope that the Conservative party rediscovers it’s roots and abandons it’s socialist heir to Blair position in the political spectrum for the future.

    • agricola
      Posted April 16, 2016 at 7:47 pm | Permalink

      I would have thought that Trevor Phillip’s credentials were better than most, and you should not be fearful of what he says. Political correctness is an excessive philosophy, and dangerous when it ignores the truth. You could say it is the root cause of much of the situation we find ourselves in.

  17. Shieldsman
    Posted April 15, 2016 at 8:09 am | Permalink

    Your last paragraph directly exposes the weird thinking of the Labour leader and many of the trade union elevated shop stewards.

    “They’d dump rights on equal pay, working time, annual leave, for agency workers, and on maternity pay as fast as they could get away with it. It would be a bonfire of rights that Labour governments secured within the EU.

    He cannot have much confidence in the Labour Party ever returning to power to ensure the continuity of the current Parliamentary Acts, and with his slim majority Cameron would not dare try.

    And he did not think “too many people” had come to the UK from inside the EU.
    Can’t he read. Even Ed Miliband and Yvette Cooper said the had listened, learned
    and would control immigration.

    Even if we leave the EU, Labours Climate Change Act will continue to force up the price of energy, resulting in more off shoring of our Industry. Witness the plight of the steel manufacturing.
    Working time regulations are of no concern to redundant workers on the dole.

    • stred
      Posted April 15, 2016 at 12:52 pm | Permalink

      Sometimes older people undergo a change of character and adopt inexplicable beliefs which are incompatible with previous thinking. In this circumstance, if they may have an important job, it would be a good idea to have a medical check up and head scan.

  18. ChrisS
    Posted April 15, 2016 at 8:10 am | Permalink

    On the Today program this morning, Remain spokesman Alistair Darling wheeled out the old chestnut that negotiation of a trade deal after Brexit could take many years during which there would be great uncertainty.

    He should have a word with his Chairman :

    Stuart Rose, Chairman of the now-official Remain campaign group, Britain Stronger In Europe, said : ‘“Nothing is going to happen if we come out of Europe in the first five years, probably. There will be absolutely no change’

    Well, Rose wasn’t quite right on that because he went on to tell the Treasury select committee that wages for the low paid in the UK would increase after Brexit.

    So that’s a change for the better, then, isn’t it ?

  19. Chris
    Posted April 15, 2016 at 8:14 am | Permalink

    There seems to be a lot of burying of bad news by the government. This was also apparently slipped out yesterday, when much attention was focused elsewhere on the Referendum designation and campaigns. There is apparently a requirement that the government publishes a series of reports before the official start of the campaign, but it would appear that these have been put out quietly, without fanfare – what a contrast to the launch of the £9 million propaganda leaflet. A fair referendum?
    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/661209/Buried-Whitehall-report-proves-EU-s-control-Britain-migrants-Brexit
    REVEALED: ‘Buried’ Whitehall report that proves EU’s control on Britain and migrants

    MINISTERS were last night accused of attempting to “cynically bury” a bombshell Whitehall report which reveals the “undemocratic” extent of Brussels’ grip on Britain

    A document released by civil servants yesterday also confirms that the Government cannot block EU migrants from “rights to enter, live and work” in the UK.

    It details how Britain has an “obligation to comply” with all EU laws, making clear the Charter of Fundamental Rights is “binding” on all 28 member nations.

    The report on the “Rights and obligations of EU membership” was the last in a series of documents which the Government was legally required to publish in time for today’s official start of the referendum campaign.

    But unlike previous publications in the series, the 96-page dossier appeared without fanfare yesterday.

    It was released quietly on a Government website and announced with a written statement to MPs. ……

  20. formula57
    Posted April 15, 2016 at 8:29 am | Permalink

    A post-Brexit UK will need a government (and others) that recognizes it is a high tide in the affairs of our country which must be taken at the flood. There will be many opportunities but the danger is that they will not be seen or, if recognized, not acted upon.

    I recently pressed a UK research scientist on the doom-laden prognosis for British science in a post-Brexit world that is given often enough. Issues he saw were described thus: –

    “Sending samples, physically doing experiments and travel to conferences/meetings is so much easier [by being within the EU]. My institution had to stop getting guest speakers from a lot of countries because it counted under new visa rules. Getting new samples from the US has taken months of paperwork and legal agreements. I know multiple cases where world-class scientists had to live with their parents for months while visas went through- that delay gives others the jump on you.

    Applying for jobs [within the EU] without having to leap through visa hoops, or worrying about your spouse’s working rights or healthcare and education for your children is a big plus. Extra sources of funding from Europe is too, not to mention the security that you can physically stay in the lab if something over-runs or decisions take longer than expected.”

    I suggested that the UK could advantage itself post-Brexit by enacting very relaxed rules, for example relieving scientists from any country working at recognized research institutions of the need for visas (and their spouses) and allowing a “free market” in the movement of samples. But clearly, avoiding the downsides of Brexit and rearranging our affairs to claim even greater advantages would need a pro-active, adroit government and even then opportunities might be delayed or lost.

    • stred
      Posted April 18, 2016 at 9:58 am | Permalink

      We know of a very senior specialist clinician who came to the UK from the US, recruited at great expense to teach, research and practise in a university hospital. Three years later this valuable doctor is still banned from doing surgery and cannot start associated research because the GMC requires proof that surgeons have recent experience of basic operations like hernias. This surgeon has only been doing difficult stuff.

      If we left the EU surgeons would still face these stupid rules. The answer is to put people into the regulating body with some common sense and knowledge.

  21. Nig L
    Posted April 15, 2016 at 8:52 am | Permalink

    I am sure that Cameron mentioned the Working Time Directive in his Bloomberg speech. Has that ‘now disappeared’ like the Human Rights Act? Indeed your readers might reappraise themselves of what he said just to show how much of a sham his renegotiation was even more relevant in the light of the ‘hidden’ civil service report that sets out how little we can say no to EC legislation and their courts.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted April 15, 2016 at 7:19 pm | Permalink

      The Bloomberg speech promises were hugely vague and promised very little and yet Cameron did not even deliver any significant parts of that. The renegotiation was just a long grass ruse and a complete joke.

  22. Vanessa
    Posted April 15, 2016 at 8:56 am | Permalink

    The only thing I am worried about is, if we vote “Leave” how long will it take for the EU to decide that Britain must vote again and “get it right…..”. It seems when this happens countries always vote “yes”. They will NOT agree with that result and we will not hear the end of it. Our present government will roll over and have its tummy tickled by Juncker if we change our vote. !

    • graham1946
      Posted April 15, 2016 at 4:42 pm | Permalink

      Vanessa, don’t be worried. That can’t happen with Brexit. How and what will they make us vote on? It can only happen if you want to remain a member and don’t like the treaty being offered. Once out we are out.
      The only problem would come if a traitorous government tried to do some bad deals to tie us in again against the wishes of the people which is why the Remain crowd, Cameron especially, must not be allowed anywhere near any negotiations. He and they have already shown a propensity to sell us out to the lowest bidder, so must step away. A complete withdrawal would mean an end to all internal interference from Brussels with the exception of standards of the things we export to them, which we do with any country in the world anyway. Our parliament would be supreme, although, no doubt some would like to do us down if they got the chance, but with no EU sugar lumps on offer for them for them, why would they risk it?

  23. Bert Young
    Posted April 15, 2016 at 9:15 am | Permalink

    An excellent post from John this morning – it should be nationally circulated . This sort of statement is exactly what the public ought to know ; it reassures a co-operative policy with Europe and at the same time , states how reasonable our “Leave” policy is to the world .

    The IMF yesterday explained what the threat was to the Euro and the EU banking system if the “black hole” in its finances was not addressed . It exposed how fragile the Euro is in currency terms and how stupid it is of Germany to perpetuate its surplus . Why the £ is seen to be at a discount to the Euro is beyond me .

    • Merdive
      Posted April 15, 2016 at 2:56 pm | Permalink

      £ down because Mark Carney is talking it down to ease pressures of billions of Chinese loans giving us cheap money to service the economy ..little to do with brexit in fact it seems that this positive prospect is holding the £ in the mid £1.20’s when he wants it at about £1.05

  24. CHRISTOPHER HOUSTON
    Posted April 15, 2016 at 9:32 am | Permalink

    The SNP will stay the same. They will continue to argue Scotland is better off conjoined to a larger economic entity and better off not conjoined to a larger economic entity.

    The Labour Party will stay the same. They will continue to argue.

    The Green Party will stay the same. They will argue for a return to carts and horses and a recycling of horse dung to make everything from winter fuel, building bricks and His and Her cosmetics.

    The Lib-Dems will stay the same. They will continue to lose MPs. But will then merge with Caroline Lucas to shovel the aforementioned.

    UKIP will stay the same, minus one MP, therefore unable to comprehend we have left the EU.

  25. Angry of SE1
    Posted April 15, 2016 at 9:42 am | Permalink

    My daughter is leading the “leave” side in the debate in her school which coincides with the campaign. She won the school election debate for the Conservatives at the general election – so I’m hoping she will continue to succeed in persuading her electorate.

    John, I suggested she read your superb articles to help make her case, but as her audience is aged 11 to 18 she may need different tactics to the main debate . The young, we know have a tendency not to vote and it will be interesting to see if this persists in the referendum as well.

    I agree with Micks comment- another upside to “leave” winning will be the removal of this tiresome flag from everywhere except perhaps “remain” headquarters

  26. David Tomlinson
    Posted April 15, 2016 at 10:15 am | Permalink

    What agreements? I question whether there are any EU specific agreements that we need additional to any bilateral agreements we have with other countries or any which are not already covered by international agreements such as WTO, ISO, ICAO and the host of other ‘technical’ agreements which keep the world turning .

    As for allowing EU citizens to remain resident? Why? We don’t allow US or South Africans etc to be resident without a specific reason. And certainly we should withdraw immediately their rights to social housing and UK benefits. I live in an area( name deleted ed) A large proprtion of the social housing is occupied by poor immigrants from (in particular a part of EU ed)who displaced British people from desperately needed social housing in this part of inner London. 30-40,000 people in my Borough are from (named places ed). And then from outside the EU we have many thousands of (named country ed), also largely in social housing. Both communities take a up a major proportion of our school spaces. And neither make anything like a net contribution to our economy.

    Housing shortage in London is not due to a few rich Chinese and Russian oligarchs. It’s the result of a mass influx of poor immigrants (many from the EU) who take up our social housing and low cost rental market (i.e the housing benefit market as they are generally on benefits). And this is not hyperbole – I live here and through my work I know the figures.

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted April 17, 2016 at 2:48 pm | Permalink

      Like it or not all these EU immigrants are here at the invitation of our government and Parliament, and it would be unreasonable and unjust to go back on that.

  27. CHRISTOPHER HOUSTON
    Posted April 15, 2016 at 10:21 am | Permalink

    We’ll see whether Mr Trump earns all or most of the New York Primary Delegates on April 19th. If so, he will almost inevitably be the next President of the USA on November 8, 2016. The 9th, for us.
    As usual ( perhaps not so perceptible to UK Parliamentarians ) the tenor of our government will synchronistically align itself with he likely winner. I do not know, exactly , Mr.Trump’s view on the UK’s EU membership. But judging from his stance on internal, world economics and his ideas on non-involvement in military adventures in the Middle East and EU involvement in the Ukraine it is unlikely he will smile upon the countenances of pro-bombers of Syria in the Labour Party nor the more “Socialist” anti-Israel members of the other wing of the Labour Party. His daughter is a Jewish religion convert and his son-in-law is Jewish from birth.
    So, it will be most uncomfortable for pro-EU MPs and their government in the scheme of things should the Remain camp “win.”, in my opinion.

    • stred
      Posted April 16, 2016 at 10:30 am | Permalink

      I read somewhere that the US voting system is a bit like the TUC, with delegates taking decisions on behalf of the ordinary bunnies, whether they agreed or not. Is it possible that the Republican top animals will just ignore the bunnies and put their piggy in?

  28. Tony Houghton
    Posted April 15, 2016 at 10:23 am | Permalink

    John

    ‘All the money that the EU sends to universities, farmers and others will be continued as UK government payments, as we have to send Brussels the money in order for them to send some of it back.’

    Presumably you mean ‘as “currently” we have to send Brussels the money….’?

    Tony

    • acorn
      Posted April 15, 2016 at 4:41 pm | Permalink

      Don’t tell anybody but we don’t actually send all the money to the EU. Exchanging nineteen billion odd Sterling, into Euro; and, the next day, converting some Euro back into Sterling ???

  29. Lifelogic
    Posted April 15, 2016 at 10:32 am | Permalink

    80% of landlords expect to increase rents to cover the absurd tax assault by Osborne (on Landlord’s deductions of legitimate business interest costs) for tax. Is this what he intended? It was the inevitable result of his policy as anyone could have predicted? Higher rents and restricted supply will also, of course, hit people trying to save to buy. People he is helping, using taxpayers money, with his help to buy ISA.

    People who will also then be mugged by his absurdly high stamp duty tax when they do actually buy. What an absurd and bonkers money go round he has created and with endless pointless bureaucracy, hassle and parasitic costs in the process.

    What a truly ludicrous chancellor Osborne is proving to be – this is nearly as bad as his job destroying national living wage laws or his new pension pot mugging rules. Vote Brexit and be rid of this man, He is totally unsuitable for the job.

    • stred
      Posted April 16, 2016 at 11:17 am | Permalink

      Our local landlord’s association has suggested that some landlords with higher borrowings may wish to get out while the prices hold up. Under the universal credit system coming in, housing benefit is to be restricted and paid directly to the tenant. This makes it unlikely that tenants will be able to pay increased rent, as will hard pressed self-supporting tenants.

      Some landlords are keen to sell but have made capital gains over a period of 20 years. In many cases in the south prices have increased by 500 to 800% leading to typical gains of over £100k. The number of private landlords has risen to 2 million. The Treasury can only tax sitting ducks as other targets are already fully exploited. 2,000,000 x 100,000 is a sitting duck worth 200bn and they have decided to keep CGT at 28% for this unique group, while putting the skids under any landlord who has succeeded in giving themselves a worthwhile pension. Stand by for a tax grab worth perhaps 40 bn and a lot of people with no private pension.

  30. Kenneth
    Posted April 15, 2016 at 10:47 am | Permalink

    The remainers are exploiting a weakness that the Brexiters are living with: in order to keep a broad church campaign, there is no unified position on what ‘leave will look like’.

    For what it’s worth I would offer the following suggestion: we state that we wish NOTHING to change until the next Parliament. This will allow the People to decide what Brexit will look like.

    What I am suggesting is that you attempt to get a broad agreement that, as far as legislation and other instruments that will remain within our control post-Brexit, we will carry on with all regulations and funding arrangements as they currently stand. We will also, mimic all trade agreements that the eu has with countries in other continents, subject to those countries agreeing.

    I would suggest that these holding arrangements stay in place until the end of our Parliament. After that a general election will bring a fresh mandate that will allow the changes to take place

    Effectively this means continuing with the regulations and law and copy/pasting eu regulations into our statue book (if they are not already there).

    Although this may stick in the throat of people like me who see many damaging rules coming from Brussels, this means that we can state that nothing will change until end of the current Parliament..

    That leaves us to debate and fill the airwaves with just 1 issue: a big discussion – even a storming row – about the happy problem of what to do with the extra money we will have.

  31. Ken Moore
    Posted April 15, 2016 at 11:00 am | Permalink

    I wonder how strong John Redwood’s stomach is..how does he feel about David Cameron linking arms with Neil Kinnock,Paddy Ashdown and now Jeremy Corbyn to deceive the British public ? All avowed enemies of Conservatism…what is going on!!!!!!!.

    I think even those of us who have been complaining about David Cameron for years are shocked by his conduct.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted April 15, 2016 at 1:02 pm | Permalink

      All enemies of democracy and the people too.

    • zorro
      Posted April 15, 2016 at 4:56 pm | Permalink

      I think that he looked pretty comfortable in their company……

      zorro

  32. stred
    Posted April 15, 2016 at 11:07 am | Permalink

    One thing which most Leavers hope will not be the same is the number for net migration. At present, we may have over half a million migrants from the EU. The number of non EU migrants is around the same, though many may be students or higher earning and skilled.

    Despite repeated targets to build 200k housing units every year, we can only find land for around 140k- unless we build on the countryside and reverse the only really successful part of the Town and Country Planning Act. The NHS is currently in crisis. A doctor running A and E yesterday repeated that this is not because of flu but increased numbers and an aging population. We are not suddenly aging that rapidly but we are issuing 630k NI numbers and family members may well be arriving with the jobseekers.

    The recruitment of skilled or professional workers also has an effect on migration. The biggest agency for overseas recruitment is the NHS. They seek staff from countries with low pay at the same time as doing their best to encourage home trained doctors and nurses to emigrate. The low paid migrants then stay permanently and bring family, needing housing and medical treatment themselves. While we stay in the UK and our children fly away to distant countries and we are lucky to see our families on skype.

    The only solution, if (UK ed)people are to be able to afford housing or obtain NHS service that is not a disgrace is to train more doctors and nurses, and override the BMA and Nursing Council in order to make this quicker and less onerous, and restrict the number to below the housebuilding rate.

    These numbers need to be made plain and repeated until the propaganda from the other side is shown to be untrue. At present even the number for net contributions is disputed on the principle that if a lie is repeated often enough….

  33. Atlas
    Posted April 15, 2016 at 11:10 am | Permalink

    The supporters of the EU have said little to extol its existence. I don’t find being told what power washing machine I’m allowed to buy or that I must have headlights on in a car in broad daylight as compelling reasons to stay. Rather they smack of the old Soviet Union planning fettish – and we know what happened to that.

    • Ken Moore
      Posted April 15, 2016 at 12:23 pm | Permalink

      Indeed the Eu is an old soviet model presented in a western guise.
      There is no need for the gulag of course since political correctness takes it’s place.
      Apparently Mr Gorbachev was aghast that Europe choose to go down the same route as the Soviet Union….even more remarkable that a supposedly Conservative prime minister is linking arms with comrades Kinnock and Corbyn to take us to the socialist promised land.

      I just hope the sceptics in the party are angry and motivated enough to take on Cameron and bring him down before it’s too late.

      • Mitchel
        Posted April 16, 2016 at 10:54 am | Permalink

        When Stalin dropped many of the non-economic aspects of communism after WWII (having confirmed that he was Ivan the Terrible re-incarnate rather than the enduring spirit of Karl Marx) and launched a tirade against the rootless cosmopolitans of the USSR,the rootless cosmopolitans thought Europa would be a better (and safer)bet for their project.

  34. Lifelogic
    Posted April 15, 2016 at 11:17 am | Permalink

    More bias on the BBC this morning. Apparently if we stay in then things will stay much the same …… but if we leave =? as they helpfully illustrate.

    If we vote to stay actually things will rapidly move to a single undemocratic top down super state from which I suspect we will never peacefully escape.

    • Ken Moore
      Posted April 15, 2016 at 1:37 pm | Permalink

      The BBC never make the point that “No change” isn’t on the ballot paper. If Britain says no to exit, it will have to accept EU decisions. National vetoes will gradually disappear.

      • Lifelogic
        Posted April 16, 2016 at 4:50 am | Permalink

        Indeed you usually get a remainder then a leaver view, then the tame BBC academic “expert” comes on and defends the remain positition, then you get the government representative who also defends remain. So 4 to 1 or rather 5 to 1 with the BBC interviewer also pushing remain with his usually bonkers line of questioning.

  35. Mockbeggar
    Posted April 15, 2016 at 11:21 am | Permalink

    I see that David Cameron has confirmed in Farmers’ Weekly what Liz Truss has already said as Minster for Defra that current farm subsidies will continue whatever the outcome of the referendum ‘as long as he remains Prime Minister’. [He then goes on to spout Project Fear nonsense.] That is saying no more than that farm subsidies will continue in the EU until they are changed by the unelected bureaucrats.

  36. Richard1
    Posted April 15, 2016 at 11:30 am | Permalink

    I think you should write to the FT and respond to Philip Stephens’s piece today, in which your name is rather taken in vain (no sense perspective etc). The main thrust of the article is all the UK’s friends and allies want us to remain in the EU and believe it is in our interest to do so. We will be less influential out.

    • Jagman84
      Posted April 15, 2016 at 12:25 pm | Permalink

      All it proves is that our “friends & allies” are big Government, top-down, Socialists. But I am sure that we knew that already.

    • Antisthenes
      Posted April 15, 2016 at 12:56 pm | Permalink

      If we leave the EU our influence would be enhanced as it would have to treat us as equals for a change. Of course that depends on post Brexit arrangement. The further we can distance ourselves from the EU the better in that regard.

      It is worrying that the stayers can wheel out so many big wigs including Obama to back them. The fact that few of them have a very good track record when it comes to choosing what they believe is in our and their own citizens best interests as they often get it wrong is not a handicap it appears. The leavers cannot take them on head on so must do what successful small poorly equipped groups to do to those who have greater fire power.

      Resort to guerilla tactics and win the hearts and minds of the people so they will back them. These groups are usually fighting for freedom, the end of corruption or the end of foreign occupation. Well strangely enough we have all of that in this campaign to leave the EU we wish to determine our own affairs and we do not want be ruled by a foreign government. Perhaps more effort in making more aware of these fundamental reasons for leaving will stir them to gain the UK it’s independence again.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted April 15, 2016 at 2:29 pm | Permalink

      We clearly will be fare more influential out. What is the use of a seat at the table, where we are nearly always out voted, have the EU courts constantly acting against our interests and without even the ability to control our borders, our employment laws or even decide on the level of VAT on sanitary or insulation products.

  37. Peter Davies
    Posted April 15, 2016 at 12:30 pm | Permalink

    I thought employment protection was from ILO with eu being the middle man

  38. Denis Cooper
    Posted April 15, 2016 at 12:47 pm | Permalink

    Astonishing article today from the former Tory MP Laura Sandys:

    http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2016/04/laura-sandys-stop-moaning-brexiteers-and-get-stuck-in-to-reforming-europe-for-britain.html

    “Laura Sandys: Stop moaning, Brexiteers – and get stuck in to working for Britain and making the EU better”

    Presumably she was asleep all the time that Cameron was (ostensibly) trying to make the EU better and failed, despite his dishonest references to the “reformed EU”.

  39. Denis Cooper
    Posted April 15, 2016 at 1:05 pm | Permalink

    A straight lie from Alistair Darling:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/15/barack-obama-to-intervene-in-eu-referendum-with-very-candid-warn/

    “having opted out of the Schengen agreement we can control who comes to this country.”

    That is simply not true; it’s one thing to retain a system for checking the passports of the citizens of other EU countries, but it’s a different thing to be able to bar them for entering the UK, which can only be done under extremely restricted circumstances.

  40. Denis Cooper
    Posted April 15, 2016 at 1:53 pm | Permalink

    But with due respect, JR, you and Vote Leave have still provided no adequate plan, and more importantly for winning the referendum no obviously credible plan, for how we will be able to extricate ourselves us from the EU quagmire, the Slough of Despond, into which we were led in 1972 and move out onto the sunlight uplands you depict as our destination.

    Bear in mind that our government and its many and various allies are repeatedly warning the voters that we are bound up with other governments which are, by implication, stupid and spiteful and untrustworthy and childish, who would rather see the IMF’s prediction of a global economic meltdown come true rather than agree to a new treaty which ensured that there would be no disruption of the existing global trade patterns.

    Not because such a new treaty would be technically impossible, far from it, but because they would never agree to it, they’d rather see the world go to hell in a handcart.

    • Lindsay McDougall
      Posted April 18, 2016 at 6:35 pm | Permalink

      JR might not have done but I have. Here again is my schedule for a fast Brexit. It is flexible in that if the tasks scheduled for the first month take longer, there is float in the other tasks. It’s workable and a Canada style deal is acceptable. When fighting a war, you don’t fight on ground dictated by the enemy.

      Month 1
      Install a new Prime Minister and get Her Majesty to appoint 500 EuroSceptic peers. We should be getting the list ready now. These measures are necessary to prevent malevolent obstruction.

      Month 2
      Repeal unilaterally our Act of Accession to the Lisbon Treaty. At a stroke this releases us from the Clause 50 / 2 year wait restraint.

      Month 3
      Carry on repealing: the part of the original treaty that commits us to ever closer union, the part of the Single European Act that commits us to integration at a later date, and the Maastricht, Amsterdam, Nice and Lisbon Treaties in their entirety. These measures would automatically reduce the competences and joint competences of the EU in UK affairs; simultaneously, the powers of the European Court would be drastically reduced.

      Month 4
      Announce that the following will apply from 1st April 2017 unless the other EU Member States approach the UK to propose something that is mutually better:
      – All contributions from the UK Exchequer to the EU will cease.
      – Freedom of movement across UK borders will cease.
      – The UK will take control of its fishing waters.
      – The UK will take control of its own social, employment and safety law.
      – We will maintain tariff free entry of goods from EU member states, on the assumption that we get a deal at least as good as the EU-Canada deal of 2014. Tariffs on UK goods would be low and be phased out over 7 years.

      Months 5 to 9
      Negotiate with the EU and present enabling legislation to parliament.

  41. hefner
    Posted April 15, 2016 at 3:29 pm | Permalink

    Maybe a link will appear for it in Facts4u ?
    In yesterday’s FT (14/04/2016), an item by Naomi Rovnick “What would Brexit mean for me and my money?”

  42. Iain Gill
    Posted April 15, 2016 at 4:09 pm | Permalink

    Can I choose which school to send my child to like they can in most of the rest of Europe? And have real spending and bargaining power in the parent/school relationship… like they can in most of the rest of Europe? Or will I be left with the square root of no choice like I am here, and take it or leave it state knows best?

    Can I choose which GP to use? Can I choose which consultant to see and when? Like they can in most of the rest of Europe? Or will I be subject to free at the point of rationing and non service like I am here?

    Or will I be left with take it or leave it substandard so called public service, non service more like, while funding much better services in the rest of Europe? like I am currently?

    Power to the citizen, and out of the mandrins hands, whether its a European or UK mandarin I don’t care I want the power back in my own hands

    • hefner
      Posted April 16, 2016 at 12:14 pm | Permalink

      Very sensible demands, and I am afraid not likely to be fulfilled seeing the current academization of schools, the rampant privatisation of the NHS, and the neo-liberal cuts to anything resembling a public service.

      But the really funny bit here is that a number of contributors, adoring admirers of JR, do not seem to realize that since the 1990s he has been pushing for this type of society. I do not want to say that the other politicians, wet or dry Con, Lab, LibDem, are better, just that I personally think that JR is not to me the shining archangel to lead us to the promised land.

      • libertarian
        Posted April 18, 2016 at 9:01 pm | Permalink

        hefner

        We if we had anything resembling service to the public from the “public sector” it would be a miracle. What we have is vast amounts of wasted public money, pork barrel projects and an abject disregard for the public. Try driving down a public road without hitting a pothole

        The NHS is a disaster of an organisation public or private and needs to be radically overhauled to make it fit for 21st century oh and as you dont seem to know more than 50% of the NHS has ALWAYS been private. There are NO GP’s employed by NHS and never has been.

        As most of your posts are complete nonsense I’m happy to park your above comments in the same bin

  43. miami.mode
    Posted April 15, 2016 at 6:36 pm | Permalink

    They’ve just had George Galloway on Channel 4 News saying that we have to pay £350 million per week to the EU. Chuka Umunna quite rightly pointed that this was a gross figure and that the net figure was somewhat less. Galloway then said that he didn’t really know the correct figure. What a shambles!

  44. CHRISTOPHER HOUSTON
    Posted April 15, 2016 at 7:20 pm | Permalink

    Mr Osborne said on TV tonight that leaving the EU would effect ones mortgage. Stone me, I hear them shouting in Birmingham and elsewhere, does that mean they could possibly be forgiven like those loans of that paragon of EU economies Greece?

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted April 16, 2016 at 6:11 am | Permalink

      Presumably then it would also affect savings rates, which have been absurdly low.

  45. Mary Thornton
    Posted April 15, 2016 at 10:16 pm | Permalink

    I have today discovered that my friend who lives in France, and husband (both English) will be voting in our EU referendum. They’ve lived there approx. 5 years. Are we crazy?. – allowing people in another country to vote on this important issue!!.. Madness.

    • stred
      Posted April 16, 2016 at 10:53 am | Permalink

      At least they are English. The Irish, Cypriots and Maltese are allowed to vote, although the English in Ireland are not allowed to vote in their referenda. Presumably, they worked out that voters from these countries are likely to vote to keep the UK in the same boat as their own country. If the vote is lost by a small margin, this alone- even ignoring the barrage of lies- will be enough for UKIP to keep going.

  46. CHRISTOPHER HOUSTON
    Posted April 15, 2016 at 10:54 pm | Permalink

    Can’t some code of conduct be agreed between the two polarised EU Campaigns? Alistair Darling is warmed up and jumps out of the long forgotten portmanteau stuffed out of the way in the Labour musty cellar announcing like the Dad’s Army Scots undertaker “We’re doomed. Doooooomed. Doomed a’tell ye ” out of the EU.
    Is Labour Ex-PM Brown now warming up for tomorrow for another doom-merchant speech? They’re making a laughing stock of the whole Remain Campaign and because of guilt by association the matter-of-factly speaking members of the Leave Campaign too.

    It’s never actually put into so many words but in truth the other 27 members of the EU are grossly unstable countries, politically and socially. Germany is supposed to be the best. 70 years ago it had its soldiers destroying the whole of Europe and beyond. Afterwards it had two antithetical governments running simultaneously with the Deputy Prime Minister of the Western part a spy for the Eastern part, and Russia. And yes, there were quite a few in East Germany did in fact support the East German government. We should not kid ourselves. Now the “liberals” of Mrs Merkel have made chaos across Europe. The far right is standing at 15% in some locations and, the Left…well they never really disappeared at all either.
    We should not be allied ,politically, to any of Europe’s countries.They’re trouble.

  47. Lindsay McDougall
    Posted April 15, 2016 at 11:37 pm | Permalink

    I’m a bit concerned at this perhaps over conciliatory tone. I want a fast Brexit, kicked off by repealing the Lisbon Treaty and appointing 500 Eurosceptic peers to avoid obstruction. And we will almost certainly need a new Prime Minister.

    In order to get a fast Brexit, I am prepared to accept the limitations of a Canada style trade deal.

    If Mr Redwood doesn’t like this, what is his timetable to complete Brexit?

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted April 16, 2016 at 11:24 am | Permalink

      First we have to get enough people to vote to leave the EU, that is the paramount and immediate task.

      The Sun and other media outlets report both a warning from Darling and a claim that we could lose £92 billion a year of trade under that kind of deal:

      http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/7077201/Project-Fear-hits-hysterical-new-levels-as-Darling-warns-Brexit-will-trigger-new-economic-crash.html

      “And research by Frontier Economics today shows trade could fall by £92 billion a year if we quit the EU and strike a Canada-style trade deal.”

      For most people £92 billion a year will just sound like an awful lot and they won’t even try to estimate how many jobs would be lost if that did come to pass, but the answer is that it is almost exactly 5% of GDP:

      http://www.statista.com/statistics/281744/gdp-of-the-united-kingdom-uk-since-2000/

      and so pro rata that would be about 1.6 million jobs lost in the UK, with probably about 2.5 million jobs lost across the rest of the EU.

      The fact is that the present trade deal between Canada and the EU falls a long way short of the present trade deal the UK has with the rest of the EU, as well as having taken a long time to negotiate, and it would be a terrible mistake to recommend it to the electorate if we want to win the referendum.

      • Lindsay McDougall
        Posted April 17, 2016 at 2:42 am | Permalink

        As usual, the correct response is “Justify your figure of £92 billion”. It seems ridiculously high. I’m not to accept any such figure from any source unless I see the supporting calculations.

        I have downloaded the Canada deal summary, running to some 27 pages, and the calculations that will work are to apply these tariffs to UK exports to the EU in detail. I haven’t seen that done. The industrial tariffs in the EU-Canada deal will be phased out in 7 years.

        In 2014, our exports to EU-27 were £148 billion and our imports were £226 biilion. I’ll leave you to work out what sort of tariff levels would lead to a loss of £92 billion on that.

        Turning now to services, the Remain camp state correctly that services constitute 80% of the UK ecomomy (GDP). That’s true but that includes the vast domestic sector. UK services exports to the EU-27 in 2014 were 4.6% of our GDP – and that perecentage is slowly falling. Furthermore, the EU Single Market does not do much to further trade in services, so the services trade that exists is mainly just a question of willing buyer and willing seller. Two of the things that inhibit trade in services in the EU are language differences and the natural protectionism of state corporations.

        Contrast this with the things that are certain. As soon as Brexit is completed, we will gain £14 billion per annum. That’s our gross contribution of £19 billion per annum minus our rebate. I refuse to deduct the money that the EU spends in the UK because it is not necessarily spent on things we like. Also on the plus side will be a gain of about £0.5 million on reclaiming our full fishing rights (that includes an offset of Royal Naval protection to enforce those rights).

        And don’t forget that as soon as we are out we can do trade deals of our own with NAFTA, New Zealand, China, India and others. These will reduce prices.

        • Denis Cooper
          Posted April 17, 2016 at 3:13 pm | Permalink

          It is ridiculously high. Given that the EU Single Market is only worth about 2% of GDP, according to the EU Commission estimate, it would have to be a very bad new trade deal that chopped 5% off GDP.

          Maybe we would lose 1% of GDP, or maybe less, but unfortunately that is not the point; the Canada deal is widely admitted to be inferior to the EU Single Market, a point which is highlighted here:

          https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/504604/Alternatives_to_membership_-_possible_models_for_the_UK_outside_the_EU.pdf

          an official government document which can easily be referenced by our opponents (“Source: HMG report”), and that opens the door for them to produce their grossly exaggerated projections such as this £92 billion a year, which few voters will be able or willing to analyse in the kind of detailed way that you have done.

          The only safe and easily defensible plan is to say that we will want a new deal just as good as what we have now in the EU.

  48. gyges01
    Posted April 16, 2016 at 8:51 am | Permalink

    Hi John

    Imagine a pelican crossing on a busy street, similar to one that you cross every day on your way to work. One day someone walks up with a sign saying, “safe to go” and joins the people waiting to cross. When the green man indicates it is safe to cross, the man with the placard walks to the centre of the road and holds up his sign. At first everyone ignores him believing him to be a crank. He does the same thing again and again, day after day. As time passes the pedestrians ignore the green man from the pelican crossing and rely on the man with the placard. One day the man doesn’t show up (he’s ill) but the pedestrians are afraid to cross the road without him. They talk about ‘uncertainty’ and whether or not the traffic will stop for the signals even though they have legal obligations to do so, even though common decency and custom has prevailed in the past.

    In this situation John, how would you persuade the pedestrians that it is safe to cross the road?

  49. David Edwards
    Posted April 16, 2016 at 7:09 pm | Permalink

    There is something about the term ‘establishment’ that has a sort of jealous connotation that whilst is appropriate to use by those that criticize it allows those that are in it to escape blame of its self-propagating largely unimaginative views. Nevertheless the establishment constantly amazes me that it can survive, whether it is poor conduct on behalf of Remain or equally the resistance to share holder opinion on behalf of BP. I might express it as a failure of those on the right to press through the point of fairness, which has then been taken up by the left, with clearly undesirable consequences.

  50. Lindsay McDougall
    Posted April 17, 2016 at 3:17 am | Permalink

    If anyone is interested, I have written a complete 9 page rebuttal of the peurile tosh that HM Government circulated to everyone in a pamphlet on the EU Referendum.

    The Government’s effort cost taxpayers £9 million (less than one thousandth of the money we send to the EU every year); mine is provided gratis.

  • About John Redwood


    John Redwood won a free place at Kent College, Canterbury, and graduated from Magdalen College Oxford. He is a Distinguished fellow of All Souls, Oxford. A businessman by background, he has set up an investment management business, was both executive and non executive chairman of a quoted industrial PLC, and chaired a manufacturing company with factories in Birmingham, Chicago, India and China. He is the MP for Wokingham, first elected in 1987.

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