Message to the Remain media: The referendum is not mainly about trade but about self government

Our trade is not at risk if we leave. The rest of the EU will want to continue to sell to us, so they will not want to impose new barriers.

Yet we live with the double Remain lie every day in the media

The first lie is we will lose our trade when we leave. The second lie is the EU is just some trade arrangement.


Its all designed to stop debate about what sits  at the heart of the EU. It’s as if the open borders,  overriding of our approach to criminals, imposition of taxes, spending our money, making our laws was not happening. Remain wants to discuss some parallel EU which just allows us to trade on more favourable terms than anyone else does, with no other demands, requirements and powers. They speak in hushed  tones of the single market, without acknowledging it has meant taking our fish, mismanaging our farms, enforcing free movement of low paid workers to keep wages down, and imposing a wide range of laws on us that have little or nothing to do with buying goods and services.


It is high time the Remain oriented  media woke up to the two lies and started putting to Remain campaigners the reality of the nascent political Union, the 5 Presidents Report, the huge powers they have over VAT and Corporation tax, the way so much of our money  is spent abroad and the stealthy development of an EU army and foreign policy. Remain needs to explain how the UK should respond to the next Treaty of political union, to the proposals for a Euro Treasury, larger budget, more transfers to the poorer parts of the Union and growing banking union regulation of the UK as well as the Euro area.


165 countries around the world trade successfully with the EU without being members. The Uk trades with the US  with no trade agreement in place thanks to the EU.

It is time we moved on to discuss how we take back control, how we repair the damage done to our democracy by EU intervention, and how we can help the struggling Eurozone by getting out of their way so they can complete their political union.


  1. Mick
    April 26, 2016

    We keep getting from the remainers how bad it will be to come out of the dreaded eu but they don’t tell us the negatives of staying in, I just cannot get my head round this, in the run up to Cameron negotiations to the eu he was always banging on that he left nothing out indecating he would campaign on the outers side and now he’s saying how dreadful it would be to leave, then there’s the cabinet members who only care for there careers, we’ll come post June 23th they won’t have to worry about there jobs because the Tories are going to implode and there is going to be a early GE then all these traitors to this country will be put on the scrap heap

  2. Margaret
    April 26, 2016

    How can you get this out more effectively John. You work daily reasoning and turning arguments on their head, but who else can be focused on to be the protagonist of Brexit. Obama certainly had influence to our disadvantage. Teresa May speaks with total mirror image logic where things are back to front . This is the sort of logic that has brought the Country down. The image is not real. It is in reverse. It does not work both ways . It reflects not the real, but others who think that they can apply logic which is specific to one area of life and project it onto another. How the other 26 Countries have lived their lives is not compatible with our way of life, etc ed

    April 26, 2016

    What are the true motivations of the Remainers? You can knock down most of their arguments with a feather.Journalists voluntarily back off when easily cornering them with knowing muppet-like smirks on both sides.

    We hear Shadow government ministers: “The EU underpins workers’ rights”; So does the UK Parliament.More so.The EU’s 27 other nations can make new and diminished “workers’ rights” for all of us any time they wish without our democratic input. Odd that Labour trusts increasingly right-wing governments across Europe to “underpin workers’ rights”. Is it a Labour awakening of sorts? Does the Labour Party finally understand that their Socialist comrades in Europe are as anti-worker as themselves? You wouldn’t trust them to look after your kids’ pet hamster unless they were on CCTV throughout.

  4. Lifelogic
    April 26, 2016

    Indeed it is rather surprising they have not dug out the phrase ” The Common Market” which tricked voters into staying in this disastrous project about 40 years ago after Heath had taken us in without the consent of the voters.

    The other lie is the real whopper from Mrs May and others, that we retain control of our borders as we are outside of Schengen. Further that we would be less safe from terrorism outside the EU and would have to have open borders to the EU in order to be allowed to trade. No one sensible could really beleive that complete tosh could they?

    But looking at the betting odds, project fear and the BBC’s relentless bias seems to be working. Seen yet again on Newsnight last night.

  5. Lifelogic
    April 26, 2016

    If the British public fall for again this time they will be walked all over by the EU and will perhaps deserve to be.

    I am not at all sure we will ever escape, even if we do vote Brexit, with all the no nation Tories, LibDims and socialist MPs. We will be told to vote again.

    April 26, 2016

    It is noticeable the Remain Campaign are as quiet as a wrongly removed limb patient about how ” the EU underpins workers rights” in regard to the BMA’s demonstrably terribly young doctors’ dispute. No calls for some pan European arbitration of the dispute; no calls for comparative EU data to prove and enhance their case; no threats by chanting, noisy utterly mature and professional young doctors on their picket lines to “Don’t make me leave and get a job in Latvia ” Whats gone wrong? Isn’t the EU the Patron Saint of doctors?

  7. stred
    April 26, 2016

    These are not the only repeated lies, which are having an effect on the largely uninformed electorate. Mrs May again ignored the fact that we do not have control of our borders as regards EU migration and peddled the nonesense about having control of a few criminals because of the wonderful EU policing. Hardly anyone in the MSM dares to mention the main problem, which is mass immigration and running the economy to suit big business through cheap labour imports and false growth through population increase.

    Already according to BBC London News there have been approvals for building on the countryside around London. The effect on house prices, which have continued to rise to ridiculous levels, creating Generation Rent with high rents, often paid to foreign investors. Yet young people do not seem to realise that it is the EU that will ensure that the pressure on housing, the NHS and schools increases and jobs are taken by people from lower paid countries, who are willing to stay in overcrowded accommodation. The under 40s mainly support Remain and are unaware of the reason for their predicament.

    Other lies put out on the expensive leaflet are that we will not be part of further integration as the EU merges into one superstate with unelected leaders, reduced red tape and that there will be tough restrictions on access to our wefare system. Last year HMG issued 635,000 NI cards to EU citizens, the restrictions are only for 4 years, child benefit will still be paid for children not here and tax credits, housing benefit, welfare top upsand free medical treatment continue to be available to all 635,000 plus their dependents. Tough as a polished -we know what.

    And just to add a little extra to the chances of winning a fiddled referendum, the Irish and some others within the EU are allowed to vote, although we are not allowed to vote in their referendums. According to a poll in the Spectator 21.4 Frazer Nelson, the Irish think the EU is a good thing more than anyone else- 73%, even above the Germans at 72%. Every little helps.

    No wonder the civil service are so expert in their manipulation. They love the EU because it is a bureaucracy and they do not have to worry about troublesome parliaments. If the truth comes out and they lose, the new government should sack those involved and not re-employ them anywhere in public service. And forget the honours and golden goodbyes.

    1. stred
      April 27, 2016

      I talk to my younger family, who are keen on the EU, and asked myself what would convince them that it would be better to leave. They are paying most of their income to live in a shared flat and have no hope of ever buying a home. But when I have suggested pointing out that unlimited EU migration and other lax restrictions have resulted in an increase in the population from 50 to 65 million and probably more, they think I am being racist, despite most of my friends and partner being from abroad.

      Politicians dread being accused of racism and also may have an eye on the fact that high house prices are popular with older people with low mortgages and borrowers who have over committed. If Remain wins, I look forward to being worth even more and paying my share of 40% IHT or 28% CGt on the possible £100bn tax target eyed up by Gideon, who has been busy putting the skids under BTL.

  8. The Active Citizen
    April 26, 2016

    What an excellent way to start the day JR. You really do have a way of cutting through things and highlighting the key questions. If all in Vote Leave were like you, we might have an effective campaign.

    Still, we live in hope that things will improve and I’m sure they must before long. Only 57 days to go….

  9. Know-dice
    April 26, 2016

    Off topic, I’m sorry… 🙁

    Today the junior doctors are on strike again, I’m not sure that Mr Hunt is targeting the right area for dealing with the higher mortality rate at the weekend.

    I would say that he first needs to look at some of the 9-5 departments in hospitals, like radiology, x-ray and scanning facilities. Then re-jig A&E such that it supplies an extended triage to determine if patients should be admitted, or deflected back to GPs.

    That is, expect A&E to be the first port of call for “out of hours” health care. May be have a pre-admittance ward that A&E can feed patients to prior to ward admittance to allow them to “clear the decks” in A&E to handle true emergency cases.

    The RBH in Reading has West Care, which can be difficult to access if you don’t know about it. But, the only real available healthcare other that A&E for out of hours…

    1. stred
      April 27, 2016

      We saw the 5 day NHS in operation when a patient we were visiting died on Sunday. He was making good progress after a urinary operation on Thursday. He developed a complication which needed tests and a consultant and was left tp hope for the best until the service resumed on Monday.

      On the other hand, having heard both sides of the argument over the past year, The present strike seems to be avoidable. The figures put forward by Mr Hunt seem to depend on the junior doctors doing more work for sometimes less and the weekend schedules have not been worked out to avoid even more long hours. More staff and back up is going to cost more. I tended to like Hunt and he seems to be a more straightforward politician but he may have become part of the arrogant party leadership that think they can do whatever they wish now they have a small majority. Time and time again they have had to be brought under control by MPs.

  10. Wingsovertheworld
    April 26, 2016

    These are all excellent points, sir. But why would the Remain-sided media ever want to balance the argument, when omission of truth is working so well for them?

    If the message is not getting through, then I’m afraid it is Vote Leave’s inability to get it through. People don’t want long drawn out, balanced arguments. Look at the response to comments on Facebook posts, or newspaper comments sections – the long answers maybe get a few ‘likes’, if at all; the short “let’s get out!” and “Cameron lies!” -type posts get hundreds if not thousands of likes. I’m not saying politicians do the same, I’m just making an observation more towards the state of society. In that sense, Leave.EU’s memes and banners do an equivalent – short, on-point messages, not really backed up by anything other than a small-print footnote stating the source. The problem is, how to ‘meme’ the swing voters and undecideds? The graphics have to go kerbside and they have to be controversial (but not obvious lies) to get attention: “The EU isn’t working” etc.

    This isn’t about balanced argument; it’s guerrilla warfare.

  11. Antisthenes
    April 26, 2016

    The lie started from day one of joining the common market that we had to join to be able to trade with it and and that membership was only about trade and nothing else. If we had not had this referendum no doubt we would still be believing pretty much the same thing now. Except we would now know about the superstate ambition but be content that we would be exempt from that. For the discerning the debate that the referendum has opened up has exposed some alarming and shocking facts despite the stayers attempt to hide them. Chief among them that we are not exempt from anything not in the long run at least. And the idea that sovereignty is no longer a matter to concern us is contemptible.

    We have fallen for an outrageous scam as as you point out we had no need to join in the first place and there are an even more urgent reasons now to leave. The green energy policies yet another scam being perpetrated on us at enormous cost. All well intended no doubt by people who believe they have our best interest at heart. In fact it is schemes thought up by fantasists who have nothing better to do than poke their noses in other peoples business. The champaign socialists, the deluded greens and every Tom Dick and vested interest all wanting in on the action to either have a greater slice of the pie or have us construct a world that suits their delusions.

  12. Nicholas Finney
    April 26, 2016

    Timely and prescient comment as ever. It’s difficult to imagine just how soul sapping the remorseless EU bureaucracy has become. Work programmes which have no basis in democratic decision making. Pork barrelling on a massive wasteful scale. Interference in every aspect of nation state citizens lives.
    Keep up, indeed increase your arguments in favour of Leave please John. This is such an important vote .

  13. Denis Cooper
    April 26, 2016

    “Our trade is not at risk if we leave. The rest of the EU will want to continue to sell to us, so they will not want to impose new barriers.”

    I’m afraid that we’re losing that argument as far as a sizeable section of the electorate is concerned. They think our trade, and in many cases their own livelihoods, will be at risk if we leave the EU; and when it comes to putting their cross on the ballot paper that prospect of major financial difficulties for themselves and for their families will count for far more than any concerns about other issues such as immigration and sovereignty and where the EU may be heading in the longer term.

    And who can blame them for thinking that, when they have their own government and its allies telling them that it is true, it would be an economic disaster, and they have German and French politicians openly saying that they would not be co-operative about making new arrangements, and the US President telling them that they would be at the back of the queue for any beneficial trade deal?

    There are still nearly two months to go, and the position is by no means irretrievable; but with all due respect, JR, we have to do better than setting your confident assertion against the loud warnings from heavyweight politicians both foreign and domestic who our Prime Minister has enlisted in his cause.

    So I can’t agree that it is time to forget about trade and move on to other matters because to do that would be to leave our opponents in possession of the economic battlefield, which on all precedent is likely to prove the crucial battlefield.

    1. Know Dice
      April 26, 2016

      And tomorrow (Wednesday) Gideon will blame Brexit for lower than forecast GDP growth figures (although he did warn in January).

      But of course Brexiters should claim it’s the fear of Remaining that is causing this problem…

      On the other hand why has the Pound recovered to 1.29ish against the Euro.

      1. Denis Cooper
        April 27, 2016

        He’s just done it!

        Only 0.4% rise in GDP over the past quarter, an addition of just £7 billion; at that rate it would take all of 20 weeks to get the same increase in GDP as we could get through TTIP, 0.6% of GDP, on Cameron’s published projection of a £10 billion gain, rather than 13 weeks with the trend growth rate.

  14. alan jutson
    April 26, 2016

    The remain Campaign are driving the topics at the moment, afraid the leave campaign is still fire fighting and not really getting, or being allowed to get, its points fully across.

    Ian Duncan Smith was shouted down at every opportunity on “the agenda” last night, he was trying very hard to make his point, but kept on getting interrupted before he got his points across, you could see he was absolutely frustrated.

    The problem is John you are all being too nice and waiting your turn, someone has to really start getting angry and showing some passion, the only one who consistently is able to get through and stand his corner under this sort of hassle is Farage, probably because he is used to being given hassle and knows how to handle it.

    Like it or not Farage is your best hope with most of the media for getting his arguments across in a hostile environment, but to some he is unfortunately tainted.

    1. Kenneth
      April 26, 2016

      Apparently, tv viewers don’t like shouty, agitated people (I do).

      It seems to me that the people chairing these tv debates are doing a pretty bad job in giving the Leave campaigners a fair crack of the whip.

      Usually when they play a few seconds of a Remainer on the news, you get to hear an uninterrupted sentence. Whenever a Brexiter’s clip is played, there is nearly always another voice (usually the interviewer) butting in, spoiling the clip. I have noticed this not once but in four different news bulletins (different clips).

  15. Gary C
    April 26, 2016

    This barrage of lies and fear along with the underhanded leaflet drop by the Remain camp will no doubt bite the Conservatives hard at the next general election, Cameron has sunk well below the line upsetting many of his own voters, while giving away our country to the dictatorship the EU is he and his campaign are pushing away their supporters, again no thought for the future!

  16. Narrow Shoulders
    April 26, 2016

    Yes it is about regaining self determination and the freedom to hold our governing parties to account to deliver policies for our benefit and not a compromise of 28 disparate wants while holding a damaged, unified currency together.

    If we can get out the work of getting our government to act for the people and not for business can begin.

  17. Denis Cooper
    April 26, 2016

    “They speak in hushed tones of the single market”

    That’s the single market which has added about 1% to our GDP, spread over two decades, according to the table on the first page of this 2014 report:

    “20 years of the European single market: growth effects of EU integration”

    Which is even less than the estimated 2% of GDP averaged across the whole EU which has been accepted by our government as at least in the right ball park.

    Ask the man on the Clapham omnibus about the EU Single (or Internal) Market and he may have no clear idea what it means but he will implicitly believe that it is crucial to our trade and economy, and therefore his own financial prospects, because that is the false message which has been drummed into him over many years.

  18. Richard1
    April 26, 2016

    Off topic, but we should mark this day of national shame as the NHS’s doctors go on strike, in a dire breach of their hypocritical oath. It is a terrible dereliction of duty, no-one who regards themselves as a professionally minded doctor should go on strike. We now understand what a disaster nationalised industries are – unresponsive to customers and markets, run for the benefit of their employees, in hock to militant unions who pick a fight in particular with Tory Governments. But we always thought NHS was different and made an exception for it. Despite its clear underperformance versus health systems in comparable countries, it has always been obligatory to praise the NHS as “wonderful”, the “best in the world” etc. Now we see our nationalised health service is just the same – a militant Union, the BMA, is spoiling for a fight with the Conservative Govt. the Govt must insist on progressing its manifesto commitment for a seven day NHS so we don’t have a higher chance of dying if we happen to get ill at the weekend. Doctors should examine their consciences and ignore the despicable militants in the BMA who have whipped up this fight.

    1. Richard1
      April 26, 2016

      Hippocratic oath!

    2. fedupsoutherner
      April 26, 2016

      I agree Richard 1. This is more about politics than anything else. If it had been the Labour party that tried to bring in this policy for weekend coverage there would not have been the same amount of protest.

      1. HY
        April 27, 2016

        Doctors don’t swear the Hippocratic oath.

        This strike would have happened under a Labour government.

        Years of underinvestment, understaffed services, below inflation pay rises and unremitting public demand, useless revalidation and increasing litigation have destroyed any good will.

        Good luck to them. Other NHS staff will be next in line to suffer reduced pay and conditions.

  19. Brexit
    April 26, 2016

    Mr Redwood, your article above made the second news item on our site this morning:
    after an item about Mrs May’s surprising speech yesterday.

  20. Mike Stallard
    April 26, 2016

    I am in Australia at the moment and outside the EU.
    Do you know what? Life continues and people are much the same. Immigration is healthy. Yesterday on Anzac day, I saw all different races mingling to sing Abide with me to a military band.
    We have just got to leave.

    1. Leslie Singleton
      April 27, 2016

      Dear Mike–Canada was much the same last time.

  21. Hope
    April 26, 2016

    JR, I think you need to stick to economics. The lying email camps think by getting a host of bodies or foreign leaders to threaten the UK the won the debate, per Mandelson yesterday. The reality is that if the UK leaves the Eau will not last. Month declared the same yesterday. Austria voted for the first time since the war an alternative party to the main two. It was on an anti immigration narrative. Hardly any mention of it in our media. It was quite historic, yet no mention. A bit like the Dutch referendum to refuse Ukraine into Schengen not allowed to be discussed by the EU. This needs to be exposed because Tax avoiding Dave was all for the expansion of the Eau to the Urals. When Turkey is now being brought to the fore because the majority of people are worried about it, Cameron wants to claim it is for the future and the U.K. Could veto, even though, once again, his views are in contrast to this. Your piece needs to include who can or cannot enter our country as a right. It also needs to explain that if we need visas to travel so what, we do it for elsewhere around the world without problem i.e US. It is safer for all concerned during the ISIS threat.

    1. Hope
      April 26, 2016

      May’s stupid comments about the ECHR ought to be exposed for her self interest career prospects that it is. As Mr areas-Mogg pointed out yesterday, the UK cannot be part of the EU and not part of ECHR. This was all about her career. No 10 approved her speech and could have corrected her but chose not to as her sham claim might gain votes based on a lie that we could leave ECHR while in the EU.

  22. agricola
    April 26, 2016

    I drew to your attention the reality of the Five Presidents Report in my second comment yesterday at 12.02 GMT which followed my first comment at 07.33 GMT., neither of which were seen fit to be published. I begin to speculate on what sort of moderation policy you run.

  23. Bert Young
    April 26, 2016

    The recent focus on “trade” is the result of the Obama intervention ; his comments were designed to threaten the loss of jobs . The campaign’s main focus should be on the loss of sovereignty and the need to win back the right to govern ourselves – restoring our democracy .

    Second in line is the migratory issue . As the most densely populated European country we are not able to absorb the problem of open borders – oversubscribed schools and the health system that is straining itself to death are two tips of the iceberg . The figures that have now been released are alarming and now border on the untenable ; Theresa May yesterday pointed to the extra potential threat of countries like Turkey and Albania joining the EU .

    Remaining in the EU and attempting to create the reforms that are necessary we all know is an impossibility ; the veto system and the vast differences that exist in the economic and cultural aspects of the various countries , will never be able to co-exist – each country will always be fighting for its own concerns . “Ever closer union” will not come about by the adoption of a common fiscal and taxation system , all this would simply be governed by the insistence and discipline of Germany . The dream is not a reality .

  24. Denis Cooper
    April 26, 2016

    “The second lie is the EU is just some trade arrangement.”

    Well, there is no doubt that from the very start it has been about shoehorning the nation states of Europe into a single country, a sovereign federal United States of Europe.

    That was openly stated in the Schuman Declaration of May 9th 1950, which the EU takes as its starting point:

    However setting that aside for the moment and just considering the trade aspect, can it be said that the EU is “just some trade arrangement”, like many other trade arrangements around the world, when with its indissoluble linkage of trade and immigration there is no other trade arrangement like it?

    At least as far as I’m aware; I stand to be corrected if somebody can point out another case where one country has told another that it will only agree to trade if all of its citizens are given the automatic right to move to the territory of its trading partner.

    And yet we are told that the “four freedoms” established through the 1957 Treaty of Rome cannot be split, we cannot expect to trade with our neighbours unless we allow all of their citizens to come and live and work here if they so wish, all 440 million of them.

    Then there is another question: if the EU is “just some trading arrangement”, is it actually a successful trading arrangement? As far as the UK is concerned the EU Single Market has added something like 1% to our GDP, that is to say about £18 billion a year, but the costs of the regulation of that market may very well exceed that paltry benefit.

    One of the criticisms of Osborne’s Treasury analysis of the economic effects of leaving the EU is that it simply dismisses the prospect of significantly reducing the costs of our EU membership, including those from excessive and unnecessary regulation.

  25. margaret
    April 26, 2016

    Off topic but very much of today.
    I find it very hard to talk about the professional abuse I have received and want to cry , but it is also pertinent to many others.
    My first wage was £10/ month. I used to work over 100 hours a week studying and working and taking exams . As a student we ran wards , managed cardiac arrests by ourselves and post operation nights with only a senior nurse on the block.
    We sutured cut throats and limbs , we plastered broken limbs , we did minor operations in Casualty.
    As time progressed we took charge of wards intensive care units , inserting cannula , commencing IV fluids, taking bloods ECG’s and other physiological measurements, looked and analysed the results. We ran around the wards doing so nights and days.
    W worked in every aspect of medicine and surgery with modern and old fashioned equipment saving lives.
    We taught junior Drs about ECG’s . metabolic and respiratory alkalosis and acidosis and then gave them the credit . We took blood samples from arteries and showed the Drs how to do it , we ran A&E’S and surgical and medical emergency wards handling most of the situations ourselves. We gave IV opiates which were well monitored with sats monitors, we taught students how to resuscitate after the Hillsborough disaster, we decided which investigations to take after a preliminary diagnosis which we made, we followed results up , we diagnosed we referred to specialists, we had to know a few times a day all medications we were giving , the side effects and how they acted upon different systems, we had to withhold them and take half the responsibility for administering a wrong medication . We diagnose and prescribe. We took degrees to back up our knowledge in the new academic environment. We didn’t ever strike as we saw our NHS improve. We were abused as they threw us out of the system and didn’t give us credit for a life times work and all that we have done they are saying the Drs did it.
    The strikes are deplorable, they do not deserve the credit for our work .After this we have been put down to a newly qualified Nurse pay and status and have been asked to give them respect. NO way. We made big decisions daily and never once did we decide to strike.
    P.S. This is what they call cleaning bottoms.!

  26. Liz
    April 26, 2016

    The British media, apart from one or two newspapers, regards itself as part of the establishment that loves the EU for the reasons that they will not discuss. They do not like democracy and the great unwashed having any say in government – but daren’t actually come out and say so – hence they are pretending it is just about trade. British radio and TV news are as much about what they don’t say or report, as what they do. Pretty shameful.

  27. turbo terrier
    April 26, 2016

    The UK has slowly but surely been slowly but surely brick by brick been taken apart, until out parliament has little or no power to manage and control the major decisions that really effect this country over the last 40 odd years. The current plans that are sitting in the wings will attack the very foundations of everything we stand for as we are driven into becoming a state of the USE. Nobody really knows who the faceless people who bought this about and the Uk populatiion have no way of getting rid of them

    Everthing being planned for Europe is not in the UK’s best interest. We are nothing but a cash cow to fund the European dream. All it will do is result in a nightmare for us as more and more claims are made on theat present resources we have at our disposal mainly those being forced to close due to EU law.

    We must revert back to being the master of our own destiny.

    It is not just about trade as you so rightly state in your entry it is far far bigger than that.

  28. oldtimer
    April 26, 2016

    Spot on – again!

    The Remain campaign, or more specifically the government in the forms of Mr Cameron and Mr Osborne, have seized the opportunity to set the agenda both before and immediately after the official opening of the campaign. Like every other step in the long process, it has been carefully orchestrated by them. Leave has been on the back foot and in response mode to the Cameron offensive most of the time. It is time for it to present its own case and to attack the alternative offer.

  29. bystander
    April 26, 2016

    In the interests of economic debate, could Leavers provide 2030 projections for EU fiscal policy, using various scenarios? Unless the Eurozone really does find a new way of conducting monetary union (and the signs suggest not), the large imbalances in trade and investment in the EZ will have to be ameliorated by fiscal policy. This will require a large increase in the EU budget. For all the hype this is only 1% of GDP at present. Back of the envelope suggests at least a 3-5 fold increase?? This will have to be funded of course. However, unlike the Treasury ‘trade dossier’ of last week, the required tax increases need not be implemented immediately after the vote when making projections for 2030!

  30. Lifelogic
    April 26, 2016

    So Mrs May (who seems bizarrely to think we can have control of our borders within the EU and we are safer with open door EU migration) now wants to leave the European Court of Human Rights, and yet remain in the EU.

    Yet she in her conference speech recently went on & on about reducing immigration endlessly.

    What planet is this woman on? I assume she is positioning herself to be a compromise leadership candidate as just Cameron did. She would be a disaster, but I suppose better than Osborne, who is clearly economically illiterate and an Inheritance Tax ratter to boot.

  31. Colin Hart
    April 26, 2016

    The Leave campaign should move the debate on to the TTIP.

    What has been agreed so far, what will it mean for the UK, who is leading on it for the UK and will we have any say on ratifying it?

    Just a few of the questions for the government.

    1. bluedog
      April 26, 2016

      TTIP is a massive red-herring in the Brexit debate.

      What clearly worries people is nothing more than a US try-on, and that is the right for corporations to sue governments in the event of a political decision that has adverse commercial consequences. The recent sugar tax being a case in point, where the Coca Cola Company might be tempted to sue the British government, for example. It cannot be said often enough, but the US will retreat from this position if pressed. They did so with the recently concluded Trans Pacific Partnership free trade agreement designed to shore up support for the US in the face of Chinese attempts to establish a broad hegemony in the western Pacific. China was blatantly excluded from the TTP.

      Back to the main point, Australia and New Zealand walked out of the negotiations until the US withdrew the offending clauses. An exercise in sovereignty that the UK is denied. If the EU blinks and concedes this point to the US, the UK has no redress. Of course the Remainders don’t want you to know this, but it highlights the risks of EU membership.

  32. Ian Murray
    April 26, 2016

    You are preaching to the converted. The failure of the Vote Leave campaign thus far to focus consistently on just this message and to challenge the lazy consensus of of the usual media suspects is worrying.

    1. Ian Wragg
      April 26, 2016

      The Vote Leave organisation is a sham
      The fact that the Electoral Commission chose them as the Official leave group shows an establishment stitch up.
      They don’t want to leave the EU but accept some sort of associate membership where nothing actually changes but we continue to finance it.
      Once again Farage has been proven correct supporting Leave EU and the Leave Alliance.
      Cummings mob don’t even want to discuss immigration which is by far the most important thing.

      1. Chris
        April 26, 2016

        Cummings’s appearance before the select committee was a disgrace, I believe. What an advertisement for the Leave campaign. Do the Conservative MPs involved not see this, and why are they not ensuring that Vote Leave runs a remotely competent campaign? By doing otherwise, they leave room for conspiracy theories to flourish. What a shambles.

      2. forthurst
        April 26, 2016

        “The Vote Leave organisation is a sham[bles]”

        In comparison with GO it most certainly is; they clearly have no ready made network to call on, trying to build everything from scratch; their website has serious functional issues; their promotional material is extremely weak on informative leaflets and top heavy on branded rubbish; emails take days to answer, inhibiting effective action by local volunteers. Relying on a rather precious little man reading speeches to a selective audience and a bombastic and poorly briefed other to get their message across will not suffice: they need to up their game.

      3. stred
        April 27, 2016

        I have been having a look at the Vote Leave websites. After appeals for support and emails, eventually some speeches and links. They should be using the internet to appeal to waverers and Stayers, not Leavers for donations.

        Take the Gisela Stuart page on the NHS. So we need to spend more because of an aging population, with EU stats. But the £10bn contribution could be paid to the junior doctors. What about all the other needs from the 10bn? Then in the link to an obscure EU paper there is a chart from the ECB showing that UK pensions are funded to a level 7x the EU average and that their eventually unified pensions will need a huge state top up. Why not put this as a headline?

        Then there is Andrea Leadsom’s contribution. AS DECC minister she has announced that the UK will be 100% CO2 free by 2050. Her chief Amber Rudd has said that energy will be more expensive if we leave the EU. Presumably, this is because under the present leadership at DECC we would build even more huge windfarms in the middle of the North Sea, costing 14x (re euanmearns) as much as present gas generation, the daftest nuke in the world for twice+inflation, burning American trees at no real benefit and an undersea grid which costs a fortune and could be blown up in days by an enemy.- Oris she going to come out and say that Amber is talking greenwash, or should that be Euwash?

        Facts4eu could teach them a lesson in communication. But then the civil service wouldn’t want that would they.

      4. stred
        April 27, 2016

        Have a look at the GO website- loads of invitations to join and personal information, then a few speeches on the press release heading. More like a social club. Are pro- EU or undecided going to bother to read this? JRs blog and facts4eu are much more combative and convincing, with references. -but with a very small audience.

    2. DaveM
      April 26, 2016

      I agree. So far everything from Vote Leave has been reactive; it’s time to take the fight to the remainers and be more proactive. I wouldn’t be concerned given the time left, but we waited and waited (for the Conservative campaign) during the GE and nothing happened apart from one sleeves-up speech from the PM.

      Vote Leave needs to start pushing the positive AND negative messages now before it’s too late.

    3. Narrow Shoulders
      April 26, 2016

      An upbeat article on why the city could thrive after Brexit from the Evening Standard.

  33. miami.mode
    April 26, 2016

    Couldn’t agree more with the sentiments in your post, but unfortunately to ask the Remain media to pass the message on is wishful thinking. It is the Leave campaign that has to fight on these fronts and bring it to the attention of the electorate. The Remain side have only got Trade as an argument and anyone from their side, including the PM and sundry other notables, is hardly likely to highlight the shortcomings of their position.

    There must surely be enough brainpower and experience on the Leave management team to work out how to get the message across: when all’s said and done it is on the news and various TV programmes every day. It has been said that Leave do not want to stress immigration because people already know about this and they are thus preaching to the converted, yet from canvassing returns on the 2015 General Election it was stated that immigration was the No 1 concern amongst all voters.

    A few adverts in the middle of soap operas or Britain’s Got Talent or other popular programmes might be useful.

    Hopefully the stated amount of £7 million, or whatever the figure is, allowable on the campaign is being spent in a useful way and not mainly on salaries and expenses.

    Reply Mr Duncan Smith spent a whole day on the media this week explaining the migration problems.

  34. Kenneth
    April 26, 2016

    The BBC has managed to paint the Remainers as sensible (though perhaps rather boring) sages and the Leavers as rebels, outsiders and freaks. They have past form on this.

    Some of the methods they employ:

    (i) conflating Europe with the eu. This happens every few minutes on the BBC and this very firmly allies the BBC with the Remain camp who always call the eu ‘Europe’

    (ii) ignoring or demoting bad news coming from our membership of the eu whether this is the Euro, refugees, tampon tax or a whole raft of other stories: they have been virtually airbrushed away.

    (iii) by promoting the phrase “what does ‘out’ look like. Every time a Leave campaigner is asked this they give a straight answer. Yet the question is repeated over again. Rarely does the BBC ask ‘what does IN look like?”. Of course, if the BBC was to report all the bad news from the eu we would have a better idea of what IN looks like already

    The real oddballs and freaks are those, like the BBC, who wanted us to join the Euro. They are extremists and their rarely spoken ideas of dismantling democracy are dangerous and could plunge us into the dark ages.

    1. Anonymous
      April 26, 2016

      Kenneth – The tragedy of it is that when it all goes wrong Thatcher and the Eurosceptics will be to blame for not allowing us to be EU enough, early enough.

  35. Nig L
    April 26, 2016

    If you want the Remain orientated media to put over your views you and the rest of the Bexiteers must start coordinating the campaign, putting out simple big hitting messages. You and Gove’s excellent, but very intellectually put, are getting lost under the weight of the Remains relentless, but simple statements.

    As an example you allowed Obama to dominate the airwaves although there was plenty of economic information, showing how much we already trade with them, to instantly refute what he said.

    You have the press mainly, Sun, Mail, Express, Telegraph yet the Exit campaign seems such a shambles that you are not taking advantage of that.

    Put aside what seems to be a mass of individual egos and intellects at work (and personal ambition/positioning etc) creat a team ethic and work off a daily grid.

    If you do not the Brexit campaign will lose and it will be its own fault. The UK deserves better.

  36. Chris
    April 26, 2016

    Mr Redwood, could you advise us of your views on this letter by Bernard Jenkin to a constituent, where he apparently claims that Vote Leave would not leave the EU straight away but could seek to negotiate a new treaty with other Member States? This is certainly not my idea of what a vote to leave the EU means.
    Quote from B Jenkin letter
    “…The Prime Minister has said that he would use Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty to trigger an exit in the event of a Leave vote. But this would be like exchanging contracts on the purchase of a house, before you have agreed the price or done a survey. Article 50 is only one process available to us, as your letter suggests, but it would not be the right course of action.

    It would be for the UK and the EU to agree the basis of a new relationship in the aftermath of a vote to leave. This would involve negotiation with all the other 27 member states at government-to-government level. This could take the form of a new treaty, which would mean the UK would not need to resort to Article 50. We will have many options open to us after a vote to Leave, unlike if we vote Remain and I am grateful to you for offering me your thoughts on the matter….”

    Reply Mr Jenkin means we would control the pace and style of negotiation if we don’t sue Art 50. He is as keen as you and me to get out from the existing treaties, seeking just a trade based relationship.

    1. Chris
      April 26, 2016

      Thank you, Mr Redwood.

    April 26, 2016

    Mr Corbyn should be asked if the Remain camp wins whether his new job title will be Mayor ; the somewhat pretentious title of Prime Mayor or, the more realistic title of EU Convenience Operative.

    1. Antisthenes
      April 26, 2016

      The only name that would be appropriate for the leader of the UK if we remain in the EU is Quisling. As we would be ruled by a government that resided in a foreign land at which our region would be nominally represented by UK nationals who are sympathetic to that regime.

      It’s appearance would be superficially one that is democratic but the reality would be that only groups that do not have the UK’s interest at heart would be in control and have all the influence. Political and economic union and socialist/green/progressive ideology would take precedence over all other considerations. Fine for the SNP, Plaid Cymru and Labour all of that fits in with their agenda but for us on the right it means that electing a Conservative government would be meaningless.

  38. Ken Moore
    April 26, 2016

    I still think the Vote Leave campaign is weak ..still level pegging despite the fact the Eu means we have to accommodate a city the size of Coventry every year despite schools and hospitals being at breaking point. I’m just aghast at their ineptitude when handed such a convincing argument.
    JR writes extremely eloquently and with much authority which are very useful but also SIMPLE, CLEVER BITE SIZED MESSAGES are needed to persuade the majority who are not seriously interested in politics.
    One chance and the leavers aren’t grasping it….they need to stop squabbling and being so politically correct.

  39. bratwurst
    April 26, 2016

    Suppose the UK decides to leave the EU without invoking Article 50. In that event, we might communicate our intent to the European Council or even another body (the Commission, for instance).

    But in that instance, one might expect the response of the Community to be a specific request to submit an Article 50 notification. And, until that was submitted, the “colleagues” could quite rightly refuse to accept any notice of intent, unless formally submitted in the right manner.

    If then the UK chose to ignore Article 50 and, say, invoke the Vienna Convention, this might be treated as a unilateral abrogation. The Community would be under no obligation to undertake negotiations, and nor could it. Without Article 50 being invoked, there would be no legal base for such talks. Any outcome could not be binding, anything offered by the EU institutions could be challenged in the ECJ.

    On both a legal and practical basis, therefore, it is inconceivable that a UK government could seek to initiate its withdrawal from the EU without invoking Article 50.

  40. Dennis
    April 26, 2016

    Is this another lie?

    Chris Bryant replied to an email I sent him about the 2 million Britons living in the other EU countries with this response with no other comment:-

    “My point is that those 2 million will have to return, so we would be cutting off our noses to spite our face.”

    1. Dennis
      May 3, 2016

      Oh, not another lie then!

  41. Dennis
    April 26, 2016

    Chris Bryant didn’t think that if they returned, being well productive, they would boost our economy like all those other millions of immigrants the Remainers go on about. He should promote it.

  42. Anonymous
    April 26, 2016

    Another lie is that the EU is preventing war in Europe, as it was designed to do.

    Remainers always trot this one out. It is not Brexiteers who think that war will ensue if the EU fails. We have faith that all major nations are civilised enough not to descend into war.

    It is the Remainers who tell us war is a risk and – by inference and historical context – implicate one nation in particular.

    Perhaps they should explain the history of the EU and tell us which country it was meant to contain and rehabilitate. Are we at risk of war from Italy ? Greece ? Spain ?

    I’ll provide a clue: The same country has invaded France thrice since its formation in 1870.

    The EU was designed to stop this country running amok in Europe a fourth time.

    We Brexiteers have every faith that this nation has reformed and is no threat at all and we now trust them implicitly to keep the peace – as we do all large nations in the EU.

    There is no longer any justification for this political straight jacket, in fact there never was.

    How small and paranoid do we make the Remainers look, Peter van Leeuwen ?

  43. Shieldsman
    April 26, 2016

    Cameron never had a plan for leaving the EU, he is not allowed to leave the EU and is trying to use the argument that we cannot leave the EU because the Brexit campaigners do not have a plan of which he approves as being workable.

    He is bit of an idiot really saying no one will trade with us, what have we been doing for centuries. All those International Companies who say we must stay in the EU because they can lobby Brussels and use the tax advantages can’t do without our money, which they spirit off to Ireland or Luxembourg. Obama’s back of the queue looks a bit silly when TTIP is going nowhere.

    When we vote to leave the Government regardless of whether Cameron stays or not has to devise a plan for our exit negotiations. The EU cannot say you can only leave on our terms, leaving is a unilateral decision of the United Kingdom. Chancellor Merkel made the unilateral decision to accept into Germany migrants who were and are continuing flood across the southern Schengen open borders.

    Why are we having a referendum, have we forgotten. It was Cameron’s decision so what were his reasons.
    David Cameron: the EU is not working and we will change it. I will negotiate a new settlement for Britain in Europe, and then ask the British people: do you wish to stay in the EU on this basis, or leave?

    Of course Cameron listed many faults with the EU. They find the degree of European interference in our everyday life excessive. People are worried that Britain is being sucked into a United States of Europe; that may be what some others want, but it is not for us. They see decisions being taken far away, rather than by their elected representatives in Parliament. (Sovereignty see E.o D.)

    His manifesto: The EU is too bureaucratic and too undemocratic. It interferes too much in our daily lives, and the scale of migration triggered by new members joining in recent years has had a real impact on local communities.
    Conservatives believe in controlled immigration, not mass immigration. When immigration is out of control, it puts pressure on schools, hospitals and transport; and it can cause social pressures if communities find it hard to integrate.
    Our plan to control immigration will put you, your family and the British people first. We will reduce the number of people coming to our country with tough new welfare conditions and robust enforcement.

    Since Cameron came back from Brussels, Honesty and Integrity has flown out of the window, he is taking us for fools. He did not reform the EU, has not reduced the
    bureaucratic interference, done nothing to control mass immigration from the EU or helped in anyway to improve it functioning.

    The EU is still not working as confirmed by Jean-Claude Juncker to the European Parliament just before Obama’s visit. “One of the reasons why EU citizens are stepping away from the European project is due to the fact that we are interfering in too many domains of their private lives and in too many domains where member states are better placed to take action.” “We were wrong to overregulate and interfere too much in the lives of our citizens,”

    A solution would be for the Commission to start undoing the rules, but the Lisbon treaty will not allow that. Instead, because Treaty changes would be difficult at the present time 2014/2249(INI) DRAFT REPORT on improving the functioning of the European Union building on the potential of the Lisbon Treaty (using QMV) will be discussed before the Summer break.

  44. Mick
    April 26, 2016
    Just gets better and better, you can bet your not going to see this on Sky/BBC/ channel 4

  45. Peter Davies
    April 26, 2016

    The brexiters also need to focus more on democracy and democratic accountabilty being one of the most important parts of a country makeup which you don’t get in the eu block

  46. acorn
    April 26, 2016

    Time to start thinking about opening foreign currency bank accounts???

    My Bank is advising its “High Net Worth” clients, to adopt a “risk spreading strategy” for their liquid, that is, cash and near cash assets. Investment Management Accounts, they say, are being managed with regard to the risk profiles clients have stipulated, with very high regard to a possible, but not likely, UK exit from the EU.

    1. bluedog
      April 26, 2016

      Excellent news. A bit of capital flight will push Sterling down and increase the competitiveness of British exports.

    2. Colin Hart
      April 27, 2016

      Classic bit of marketing-speak from incompetent banks. Sound as if you understand what’s going on around the world and that you can provide your clients with solutions. They seldom either.

  47. Chris
    April 26, 2016

    Spectator debate tonight on Brexit sold out:

    Hear from speakers Nick Clegg, Nigel Farage, Daniel Hannan, Kate Hoey, Liz Kendall and Chuka Umunna. Chaired by Andrew Neill.

    Should be very interesting, and am glad that Nigel Farage is being given his rightful place at the centre of the Brexit debate.

  48. Lifelogic
    April 26, 2016

    Exactly, but with the BBC, the government, the civil service, endless tax paid propaganda, the dreadful Obama and academia all on the remain side it will be a huge struggle.

    Cameron what never going to deliver a fair referendum. I still thing he will lose.

  49. fedupsoutherner
    April 26, 2016

    All the points you have covered here John need to be hammered out in simple terms to the general public who, like me, would not know about how much of a closet the EU is to become. I would not know hardly any of this stuff if I didn’t read your diaries every day. It is not reported in the papers or on the news on TV. People have no idea of what is going to happen. I have been looking at the state of Italy’s banks today and people in the EU should be afraid of the future if Italy goes bust. Not a pretty outcome for anyone. The public must realise that yes, not everything will be rosy straight away if we leave the EU and there will be a lot of work to do but staying in this club will be far worse in the future. Great post again John.

  50. Denis Cooper
    April 26, 2016

    “UK Government’s Official Report Into ‘Toxic’ TTIP Concluded It Is ‘Bad For Britain’”

    “In 2013 the Department for Business Innovation and Skills (BIS) commissioned LSE Enterprise — a subsidiary of the London School of Economics and Political Science which provides consulting, commercial research and customised executive education programmes for governments, public and private sector organisations around the world — to review the proposed treaty.

    The assessment, entitled ‘Costs and Benefits of an EU-USA Investment Protection Treaty’, has now been released thanks to a Freedom of Information request submitted in February by an organisation working on behalf of Global Justice Now. It reveals that experts see little benefit in the proposed treaty.”

  51. Anonymous
    April 26, 2016

    Off topic please. The Tory party is going to be hammered as the nasty party again – over Hillsborough.

    The poor victims were being pushed. And if they were being pushed then someone must have been pushing them.

    Would anyone here be rude enough to push another person from behind ? I know I wouldn’t. Not in a million years.

    So was it the police physically pushing people ? If not then how can it be their fault ? How does the money-grubbing football industry get away (largely) with its responsibility for not laying out its grounds with protective barriers when it knew full well that football fans of that era could be so badly behaved that they needed police attendance and their mounted divisions ?

    1. Cheshire Girl
      April 26, 2016

      It was predictable that the Police would be blamed for this, but I found it disgraceful that the Ambulance Service is also being blamed, and that the families are calling for the head of the Ambulance Service to resign immediately . If I were them I would refuse to work at football matches. Some of them (St. John ambulance) are volunteers. Not a shred of sympathy for what the Police and the emergency services had to face. John Snow was ’emoting’ big time on the Ch 4 news tonight. There is obviously no room for any doubt in his mind as to who were responsible!

      1. Anonymous
        April 27, 2016

        CG – The police were not there for hospitality and nor were they trained in it – they still aren’t. They were there because of horrendous football hooliganism of that era, the vast majority of fans were innocent of it but they were treated like cattle by the clubs – herded onto bleak, concrete terraces, or wooden ones with rubbish under them.

        Relatively recent to the Hillsborough tragedy Liverpool fans had been involved in the Heysel one and so barriers were erected to stop pitch invasions and fighting in the crowds.

        One would have thought the FA and the football clubs would have been hot on crush barriers and stewarding.

        Why did they expect the police to do their hospitality for them ? They were there to deal with the frequent misbehaviour and public order breakdowns at football matches, not stewarding.

        The proof is in how large events are marshalled today. Crowd barriers, plenty of visible stewards dealing only in movement of people, clear escape routes, limited ticket numbers, all-seater stadiums.

        It was never meant to be the police’s duty to do this for private organisations.

        And finally. Someone must have been pushing from the back to cause crushing at the front – unless this involved a mass fall of people.

        Would anyone here ever push another human being ? I have been in that situation (at a large event in Turkey where organisation was similar) and refused to do it when I was at the back of the queue, prefering to stand back and go in after the people had cleared – even though it meant missing the start of the show. It was easy to see the danger and I could not bring myself to push the person in front. It is clear that there is a small but significant percentage of people who think innitiating pushing is the right thing to do and so they do it, causing the pressure in a crowd.

        Alas a middle ranking police officer is going to take 90% of the blame for this tragedy and my opinion will be seen as heresy by very many, including people in top positions in TV.

        For many reasons I think my country has gone utterly insane.

        1. Cheshire Girl
          April 28, 2016

          I agree with you on many of your points. I did not imply that the Police ‘should’ be blamed, but that they probably ‘would’ be blamed, as, so many times now, they seem to be a convenient scapegoat for anything that goes wrong in society. It s regrettable that many people who should know bettter(including Politicians) seem happy to go along with this type of thinking. As I said, I was concerned that the Ambulance service, who do such good work for us all, were included in the criticism. For the record, I think that some of those who were responsible for this tragedy are still walking the streets. As you say, there had to be some pushing from the back.

          For good measure I watched the Hillsborough debate in Parliament yesterday, and I thought the PM, Home Secretary, and others went ‘over the top’ with their ‘lessons must be learnt’ remarks and unlimited praise for the families and fans. I expect it made the Politicians feel very virtuous.

  52. Deborah
    April 27, 2016

    Last time the government of the day won the referendum by hiding the truth and pretending it was just a common market.
    The remainers are hoping they can do it again.

  53. gyges01
    April 27, 2016

    We either want a country or we don’t.

    If the Remain campaign wins then the UK government and Parliament will have no legitimacy since Europe can do all their functions.

    Raising taxes … Europe can do that. Representation abroad? Europe can do that. so shut down the Foreign Office and the Embassies. Law and Order, shut down the Home Office, Europe can do it. The list goes on and on.

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