The latest manufacturing trends survey and forecast from the CBI are at variance with the doom laden nonsense from some of the Remain campaigners.
The CBI states that “Firms’ outlook for the upcoming quarter is a little firmer. Both output and demand are expected to grow, with the latter underpinned by strong expectations for export orders. Looking to the year ahead , manufacturers’ plans for investment in buildings and in plant and machinery are at robust levels. Stronger investment intentions were primarily driven by chemicals and food and drink manufacturers… With the expected pick up in exports it’s likely that firms will be looking to increase capital expenditure”.
The first quarter in the UK produced slower growth as in all the major economies. The second quarter is anticipated to be better by the CBI member firms, with a likely increase in construction and more exports and investment. The leading car firms based here in the UK have announced five years plans for additional investment. None of this is contingent on the UK staying in the EU. It is interesting that the CBI did not mention Brexit as a second quarter dampener in its summary forecast for second quarter manufacturing.
As the poll gap between Remain and Leave has narrowed in recent days sterling has risen. The Remain campaign have gone strangely quiet on the pound, which they said fell over Brexit fears when a Brexit win was less likely according to the polls. Now it is more likely shouldn’t Remain comment on the strength of the pound? Maybe markets have worked out how the UK balance of payments improves once we stop making all those EU contributions.
Sterling went below $1.39 on February 26th and rose to $1.45 yesterday. Sterling reached a low of 1.23 Euro early this month and reached 1.28 Euros yesterday on better polls for leave.