The Treasury’s long term forecast for 2030 is absurd. Mr Cameron now tells us he does not have a forecast for how many people there will in the country by 2030 if we stay in the EU, so how can he defend a forecast of how big our National Income will be? Why did the Treasury use the wrong number of people when trying to work out GDP per head figures and then pretend these were family income figures?
The Treasury’s short term forecasts have so far proved simply to be wrong. Remain says that fear of Brexit and then Brexit itself will
Raise interest rates
Lower the pound
Push us into a shallow recession
Since the end of February the polls have moved considerably in favour of Brexit. Where the City and markets thought in February Brexit had no chance of winning, now many think Brexit could win. So how has the Treasury forecast fared?
Interest rates (government bond rates) have fallen considerably.
The pound has gone up against the dollar and other currencies, and our foreign exchange reserves have risen.
Retail sales and manufacturing output have b0th risen encouragingly in May as the polls narrowed.
So there we have it. The Treasury so far has been wrong, wrong and wrong.
They also have been busy contradicting themselves. At the same time as telling us interest rates will go up, their Governor of the Bank of England favouring Remain tells us he stands ready to cut official short rates further on Brexit.
So what does Leave think?
We think the pound and interest rates have gone up and gone down during the long period we have been in the EU, and will doubtless fluctuate when we are out of the EU. Over the rest of this year US rate changes and other major international events will doubtless affect the value of the pound, but there is no good reason to expect major change to either rates or the pound from Brexit itself. As recent output and retail figures show there is certainly no reason to forecast the temporary end to growth if we vote leave.