So now we know what the plague of locusts looks like. The latest threat from Remain is an emergency budget backed by Mr Osborne and Mr Darling to slash spending and raise taxes. This despite both main parties pledges on spending in the NHS.
The proposed tax rises would be illegal under Mr Osbornes own past legislation put through to assure people there will be no Ā tax rises this Parliament in the main taxes.
This must be the last absurd threats of the Ā Grand coalition of senior Labour people and Remain Conservative Ministers battling to save the unpopular EU from the common sense of the British people. I along with many other Conservative MPs see no need for any such horror budget and would not vote for one if Mr Osborne was silly enough Ā to try. As we will be better off out of the EU the post Brexit measures will include spending more on the NHS and abolishing VAT on fuel.
June 15, 2016
As a 45p top rate yields more cash than the 50p rate, and by most estimates 40p would yield more still, any rate over 40p is for political reasons rather than because it is expected to yield more for the treasury
We will not be bluffed into voting remain
June 15, 2016
JR, can we expect weapons of mass destruction being built up in the EU if we leave? Could Blaire rustle up a report from somewhere supported by the Treasury and IMF? Is here a dictator the politicos do not like at the moment in the hope they could invade his country to bolster national pride?
I still do not understand that if all this fear and doom is correct, why did Cameron not get a better deal? Surely with western civilization under threat, world war 3 on the horizon and economic melt down around the world he should have have got a better deal to avoid these apocalyptic events. He could not even cut child benefit to foreign citizens who never set foot in this country! His Bloomberg speech but a distance memory.
June 15, 2016
Hopefully it will not “bluff” too many into voting out of fear. But it is a totally immoral tactic for the government to use it should backfire with luck.
A narrow victory for remain would be a very hollow victory indeed for Cameron, Osborne the establishment, the slanted pitch, bias and unequal funding they arranged and the hugely biased BBC, with their endless lies and propaganda.
It will solve nothing. We will later elect a proper EU skeptic party to lead us out of the EU anyway.
June 15, 2016
As someone pointed out the other day we now have Mayotte within the EU. What say, if any at all, did the UK government have in this? I and I suspect nearly all the UK voters were not even aware of it?
I assume Mayotte now can grant (or even sell) people rights to come and live in the UK too? What say did the voters in the UK have in this.
June 15, 2016
Child benefit even if they have never set foot in the country, in work benefits, housing, free health care, free education. In short they have exactly the same rights as any UK citizen.
They can enter the country whether they have work or not, whether they have a criminal record or not, whether under supervision or monitoring or not.
June 15, 2016
You are sleeping on the job: Mayotte entered the EU on 1 January 2014.
June 15, 2016
and, beware, its 212,645 inhabitants are now crossing the Indian Ocean to come to the UK.
June 16, 2016
… and final point, Mayotte had renewed his administrative link to France by referendum in 1974. It therefore means that, horror of horrors, they are all French, and some of these French from Mayotte might actually already be working in the City.
June 15, 2016
Well we know Osborne is indeed very silly. We can see this from his central wage controls, his pension and landlord/tenant muggings, his sugar tax and his endless tax increases and tax complexity increases. Also his pathetic attempt to pretend he is keeping his IHT threshold promise made years ago when he is clearly doing nothing of the sort.
The man must be replaced by someone who is at least vaguely competent. Hopefully on the 24th June. Lets have someone who is genuinely “a low tax Conservative at heart”.
June 15, 2016
Perhaps this is why Remain forecast a recession in the event of Brexit – such a budget could cause one. But if the spending cuts included EU contributions, green crap, overseas aid and Hs2, such a budget would be very positive.
June 15, 2016
It is clear that Osborne is a clear and present danger to the UK economy. These two cannot be trusted not to sabotage the economy to achieve their ends in the event of a Brexit vote!
zorro
June 15, 2016
But how much damage is he doing before he’s pushed?
This hysteria, with figures plucked from nowhere to support a drowning empire, is actually causing real economic damage out here. They are cajouling markets, corporates and world leaders for the sake of what? Just plain hubris.
Cameron and Osborne could have negotiated, stood back and taken a neutral stance on this referendum. They would have still been in a job next Thursday either way. They wouldn’t have lost our host and many others.
They wouldn’t have made our nation look like a joke with their hysterical outbursts.
June 15, 2016
They will have something to dwell on in the future then…..
zorro
June 15, 2016
Also he seems to think his job is to endlessly create pointless parasitic jobs in tax, accounting, law and bureaucracy while destroying many more productive and useful jobs. This with his absurd tax rates and endless tax complexity. Does wonders for UK competitivity! He must go as well as the EU a win win for the economy.
With an HMRC who do not even answer the phone even after keeping you holding for hours.
June 15, 2016
I notice in his horror budget cutting schools, the NHS etc. there is to be no reduction in the foreign aid budget.
June 15, 2016
A very good point : I missed that.
Probably left out because he knows how popular that would be.
He probably isn’t proposing cuts in Scottish Aid for the same reason.
It only goes to show how daft he is.
June 15, 2016
Nor reductions in the absurd tax payer grants for intermittent and hugely expensive wind and PV energy. Nor any of the very many other areas of this bloated government that desperately need cutting or eliminating, such as the over pay & gold plated pensions in the state sector.
June 15, 2016
@Roy Grainger
How would threatening a reduction in foreign aid scare the voters?
June 15, 2016
True – but there is no need to scare those benefiting from foreign aid to vote for Bremain as they have no vote to cast.
June 15, 2016
The most striking part of this announcement from “Project Fear” is a failure to actually say why there would be a Ā£30bn ‘black hole’, thus we appear to haver another set of figures plucked out of the ether by Osborne.
Interesting video, made by the Guardian (of all newspapers, and not exactly a hotbed for Brexit) reposted on the Conservative Home site yesterday, in it the journalist visited Stoke on Trent with the local Labour MP, on a mission to seek out the of Labour voters who will be voting to Remain, trouble was almost all the people door-stepped by the MP and her supporters said they intend to vote for Brexit, most of the street voxpop interviews were for Brexit, the MP even visited a local factory that apparently ‘would be hard hit by a Brexit’ but could find little support for Remain – even though, shock, 15% of the factories output is directly linked to exports to the other EU27, but as no one mentioned were the other 85% of output went…
June 15, 2016
Indeed and they could doubless switch the 15% to the other markets outside the EU if they really had too by marketing more their instead of the EU. But we will clearly get a free trade deal anyway, as we import more that we export to the EU.
The only remainders that Newsnight seemed to find in Middlesbrough the other day were people sucking on the EU teat, the art gallery and some furniture making/charity training place.
I think it is going to be quite a decisive Brexit vote. So what plans have the government made to deal with this outcome? Other than for Osborne and Cameron to resign.
June 15, 2016
@Jerry
I think he is “putting his ducks in a row”, i.e. If Brexit succeeds and there is a mystical “black hole” then he will say “told you so”, if we remain he will say “uncertainty over Brexit, caused it”.
He will not take responsibility for his own incompetence and the instability that he and Cameron are causing.
June 15, 2016
@LL; “But we will clearly get a free trade deal anyway, as we import more that we export to the EU. “
It would not worry me if there was not deal, even if companies in the EU27 were banned by the EU from trading with us there is no reason why the UK can not either make ourselves or buy from elsewhere. Oh and let’s be clear, better no deal than having to agree to being a EU member once again in all but name, and this is the message the eurocrats need to hear, fine if you want a trade deal but it will be on our terms and not yours – which is after all the position taken by the USA with TTIP.
@Know-dice; “He will not take responsibility for his own incompetence and the instability that he and Cameron are causing.”
But has any chancellor in the last 40 years done so? š
June 15, 2016
“I will have such revenges on you both
That all the world shallāI will do such thingsā
What they are yet I know not, but they shall be
The terrors of the earth.” – King Lear.
June 15, 2016
Osborne and Darling. Their parents must be SOOOOOOOOOOOOOO proud of their offspring.
June 15, 2016
Can Osborne really sink any deeper ?
This demonstrates absolute and total panic.
How can a Chancellor be allowed to threaten breaking so many election comittments ? Presumably this has been done with CMD’s active connivance ? What does Corbyn think ?
He could only get it through the House with Labour support.
I don’t think for one moment that voters will take it seriously.
Just in case I have emailed all my friends, contacts and former clients as well as post here and on Facebook the following:
“As a former Independent Financial Adviser, and stressing the Word Independent here, I would like to reassure all my friends and former clients alike that they need not be over concerned about George Osborne and his latest Project Fear wheeze, the so called “post Brexit draft budget” that he is promoting this morning.
Even if you are intent on staying in the EU, it is worthwhile following the safe link I have include below. You only need to read page 1 for some reassurance.
The fact that Osborne is doing the rounds of the TV studios with Ex-Labour Chancellor Alistair Darling, tells you everything you need to know. You may recall that Darling was First Secretary to the Treasury for much of the time while Gordon Brown was busy trashing the economy.
To support my argument, below is a safe link to an academic report which analyses Osborne’s two previous scaremongering Treasury reports on the potential consequences of Brexit.
You need read no further than The Introduction on Page 1 :
http://www.cass.city.ac.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0007/320758/BlakeReviewsTreasuryModels.pdf
Whatever your opinion of the campaign to leave the EU, you might care to forward the link to your own contacts, whatever their views on the subject.
Best Regards
Chris Sheldrake”
June 15, 2016
But do go an read page 57 as I mentioned yesterday – two dodgy dossiers
June 15, 2016
Thanks for pointing out this p.57 note.
June 15, 2016
Seems Mr Osbourne believes he can ignore legislation he instigated but would’t this also be illegal in the context of the referendum as the government is supposed to be in purdah?
Win or lose, if the country is to avoid turmoil then Cameron and Osbourne have to step down.
June 15, 2016
“Threaten them with taxes George – and if they vote Leave, break their damned English necks with taxes”.
I’m sure King John tried that.
I saw a sign last night in Cornwall declaring EU investment. It was a bit obscured by the massive Vote Leave sign though.
June 15, 2016
If ever we needed a clearer example of the arrogance of our PM and Chancellor, this is it. They went into the 2015 election with a Manifesto promise to hold a Referendum, the result of which could never be known in advance. Both uttered the words “we rule nothing out” several times over, suggesting (if never having the balls to say) that they’d vote to leave if the renegotiation didn’t “get what Britain needs” on immigration.
So the presumption must have been that the Referendum result could go either way, poised on a knife-edge, but that the economy would be safe, or at least manageable, either way. Now they’re talking it down daily, spooking the markets and making matters doubly worse. Has there ever been a more treacherous campaign?
June 15, 2016
So now we enter the grid for Project Terror.
Osborne is pathetic, a Chancellor if anything should try to project some gravitas instead we have this spiteful, vindictive, political Chancellor who has shown he has little grasp of his brief and only there because he is Cameron’s mate. Clearly Osborne hasn’t figured out that he can only implement this punishment budget if he still occupies the Office of Chancellor.
This referendum has shown us one thing, the limitless ability of Cameron and Osborne to debase the Offices of State they occupy.
June 15, 2016
“This referendum has shown us one thing, the limitless ability of Cameron and Osborne to debase the Offices of State they occupy.”
Indeed
June 15, 2016
So slashing health, education and defence but maintaining funds for overseas aid and the financially incontinent HS2
Does that (man ed) think that we are completely stupid.
Now the Foreign Office has agreed to visa free travel for Turkey.
Just who’s intetest do these tossers represent.
June 15, 2016
The banks and multinational businesses. The sort that profit from the EU at our expense.
June 15, 2016
In the spring of 2009 the Labour government was having to borrow about a quarter of all the money it was spending, so Darling got the Bank of England to create Ā£200 billion of new money to make sure that it could continue to pay its bills in the run-up to the 2010 general election.Then Osborne got the Bank of England to create another Ā£175 billion.
Compared to those sums a Ā£20 billion or Ā£40 billion “black hole” resulting from Brexit would be unwelcome but manageable.
That is if it happened, which it wouldn’t, notwithstanding the dire predictions of Treasury studies that were designed to produce the dire predictions that the boss wanted.
June 15, 2016
I see that Paul Goodman agrees with you that this will never happen:
http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2016/06/brexit-the-chancellor-wouldnt-produce-his-emergency-budget-the-commons-would-stop-him-if-he-did-and-he-wouldnt-be-chancellor-for-long-in-any-event.html
June 15, 2016
If we are so beholden to this club that we would suffer a Ā£30 billion downside by no longer being in it surely we should cut those apron strings as soon as possible and work towards independence. This decision is about self determination.
The only reason I can think of for a shortfall after we leave is that there is lower growth due to lower population growth. However this will be offset by lower infrastructure costs.
I see the the remain Conservatives won’t even mention immigration in relation to lower growth, truly a taboo subject.
At least labour is taking their political opportunity to bring thus up. They won’t be able to put it back in its box on 24 June
June 15, 2016
It is perfectly reasonable to argue there may be issues with trading until some sort of trade deals are worked out.
It’s just not going to be Ā£30bn.
I can’t quite see how the EU would refuse to trade with us. They might not like us but they aren’t stupid.
Mind you, I didn’t think Osborne was this idiotic.
June 15, 2016
George Osborne is not often defeated by commentators but he lost on the Today programme
June 15, 2016
It started back in January with a Labour MP threatening us with a “punishment beating” if we voted to leave the EU, now it is ending with a Tory Chancellor threatening us with a “punishment beating” if we vote to leave the EU, and what’s more saying that he would willingly rely on the votes of Labour MPs to get that “punishment beating” approved by the House of Commons.
June 15, 2016
Osborne has exhausted his political capital: surely he is now without credibility and has to go whatever the outcome of the referendum, much like his pal Cameron.
June 15, 2016
He sounded at his most irresponsible when he said there was no plan for Brexit. Why isn’ t there? The civil service and the government should be fully prepared for it.
June 15, 2016
Indeed but I do not expect them to try to exit, the commons is full of leftie, big government, pro EU, greencrap remainers. Another referendum will follow it will not be that easy to escape the clutches of the EU.
No reason at all therefore to vote remain in the first referendum. Whatever you think.
June 15, 2016
Just like everyone else John, we were waiting for the ultimate in bad news from this disgusting pair in office.
The threats are so ridiculous now that I simple refuse to listen. If they had the neck to implement something as sordid as this then the Tory party will be finished for a very long time. Is this what they really want or do they believe we will be taken in? Nigel Farage must be rubbing his hands with glee.
June 15, 2016
Irrespective of which way the vote goes we now know Mr Osborne needs to be put out to pasture. As noted in Professor David Blake’s report the economic models used by the Treasury are easily critiqued (and are an incomplete sub-set of possible models), most of the market fear will be due to the Remain camp’s behaviour. If the Prime Minister has any ability (and wishes to restore confidence in himself) he needs to move swiftly to remove Mr Osborne, even before the referendum and replace him with a less incompetent Chancellor. At best Osborne should be a backbencher, though I am surprised his local party members don’t wish to deselect him.
June 15, 2016
I’ve just been reading that:
http://www.cass.city.ac.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0007/320758/BlakeReviewsTreasuryModels.pdf
“The same model would predict that the UK would be better off joining the euro and that every country in the world would be better off joining the European Union.”
“The Treasury also assumes that there will be no policy response to this shock ā unlike in the GFC when the government pumped Ā£375 billion into the economy.”
“Most of the other economic models that have examined the economic consequences of Brexit ā and which have been entirely ignored by the Treasury ā find that it will make little difference to the UKās economy whether the UK stays in or leaves the EU.”
Or to put it another way, the overall economic effects of the EU on the UK could perhaps best be described as āmoot but in any case rather marginalā.
June 15, 2016
Pasture’s too good for him. It’s off to the knacker’s.
June 15, 2016
I just listened to Mr Osbornes interview on Today. It was quite absurd. I think he cannot remain as Chancellor even if we vote Remain. A pity – I thought he was doing an OK but not a brilliant job as Chancellor.
June 15, 2016
The grossly overstated shortfall can be filled by the 10 billion that we will no longer send to Brussels coupled with a huge reduction in the foreign aid budget and by delaying HS2 for five years
There.Done.
Should I apply to be Chancellor? I hear they will be a vacancy very soon..
June 15, 2016
https://euobserver.com/uk-referendum/133835
“Cameron pulled out of an event planned for Friday in Manchester, where he was supposed to appear along the Irish PM Enda Kenny. The Taoiseach will appeal to Brits with Irish roots to vote to stay in the EU.”
And to Irish citizens in the UK who are being allowed to vote in our referendum even though only Irish citizens are allowed to vote in Irish referendums.
June 15, 2016
Happy Birthday!
I wonder which will come first – the collapse of western civilization, the third world war or the need to finance the Ā£50bn black hole in our economy?
TW3 did it much better!
June 15, 2016
And there I was just thinking faintly the other day that the odious Cameron and his sidekick Osborne had been quiet lately. I mused that maybe they had thought they had gone too far with their Project Fear and that they could see that people were very much wise to it. That they had realised they had made a mistake.
Yet now we have this totally disgraceful attempt to frighten and fool vulnerable people, they have absolutely no shame. This is what being part of the EU elite does to people. Tighten the screw even more. They assume they have a divine right to rule; no opposition will be tolerated; they people must be kept down. They are drunk with power.
And I gather that Junker may say something next week. I wonder what that will be, that all UK citizens will be subject to travel restrictions and trade through ports and airports will be subject to lengthy inspections if we dare vote the wrong way. Cameron will have to support it.
How can these people possibly continue to hang on to their positions – Guido puts it well today as usual again.
There is no doubt that the people must rise up against these abuses. We must vote to Leave. We must vote in large numbers and then we can get rid of Cameron and Osborne (and others) and restore belief in our nation and people. We are sick and tired of being lectured and patronised by them.
We will then make our own democratic decisions in our own best interests. We can stop looking over our shoulders, we will have no EU masters to satisfy.
June 15, 2016
It certainly is “panic stations” in the remain camp . For Osborne to emerge with a non-manifesto threat is , simply , idiotic ; it is an outpouring of his youth and bad judgement . He should be replaced as soon as possible by someone of wisdom and experience whose feet are on the ground as far as economics and financial planning are concerned – I wonder who I mean ? .
June 15, 2016
Anna Soubry ?
zorro
June 15, 2016
Paul Goodman on Conservative Home delivers an excoriating verdict on Osborne’s plans:
http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2016/06/brexit-the-chancellor-wouldnt-produce-his-emergency-budget-the-commons-would-stop-him-if-he-did-and-he-wouldnt-be-chancellor-for-long-in-any-event.html
“There are three main reasons why George Osborne will not present the spending-cuts-and-tax-rises emergency budget he promises if Britain votes to leave the EU next Thursday.
ā¢ First, because were Brexit really to lead to an immediate economic convulsion, the Chancellor would do the opposite of what he says heād do. Rather than raise taxes and cut spending, he would cut taxes and raise spending.
ā¢ Second, because were he nuts enough to try to do the opposite, the Commons would stop him.
ā¢ And, third, because in the event of Britain quitting the EU he wonāt be Chancellor for long, and will thus be in no position to present a Budget at all.
The polls must really be rattling the Remain campaign for Osborne to produce rubbish like this. The phrase he once applied to Gordon Brown applies to him: he is treating people like fools.
Perhaps he and David Cameron can take the next logical step and threaten the end of western civilisation. But I was forgetting: that oneās already been tried.”
June 15, 2016
Thank goodness for your sanity. It is depressing to hear such tripe from people who are supposed to be our leaders.
June 15, 2016
“Osborne hit by bitter Tory backlash as 57 MPs say they will REJECT post-Brexit budget
ALMOST 60 Tory MPs have signed a letter saying they will REJECT the āpunishment post-Brexit budgetā George Osborne is threatening if Britain votes to leave the EU on June 23.
http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/679999/George-Osborne-Brexit-budget-EU-referendum-Tory-MPs-letter
Reply I am a signatory
June 15, 2016
“reply I am a signatory”
Nobody posting here regularly would ever have doubted it !
Osborne is finished, whatever the outcome.
The first polls taken after the draft budget will be absolutely fascinating.
With Labour having been out on the stumps, if we don’t see a surge in support for Remain we can privately be pretty sure we are going to win. No singing from the rooftops – look what complacency did for Kinnock !
PS I hear that Osborne is after May’s head for not campaigning hard enough.
June 15, 2016
@Chris S; “look what complacency did for Kinnock !”
Indeed but also look at what over confidence did for the SNP, it isn’t over until 10pm on the 23rd…
There have been rumours in the media that some big announcement will be made by BSE early next week, I would not be surprised if they try and also pull something out of the hat late on the 22nd, politicos and the official Vote Leave campaign might not be allowed to respond directly after midnight but surly Brexit favouring plebs can still lawfully make the case via social media on polling day – yes?
June 15, 2016
Mr Redwood,
Does Mr Osbornes post Brexit budget predictions breach the Purdah rules?
Reply Arguably yes. They also clearly break budget purdah rules which tell Chancellors not to reveal this sort of tax change until the day you put them into effect.
June 15, 2016
I made a complaint to the Electoral Commission late last night to this effect. Mr. Cameron is repeatedly playing fast and loose with the Section 125 PPERA strictures, but Mr. Osborne’s publication is pretty much a definitive breach.
Hopefully, the more public Leave Campaigners will elect to make some use of this? Or even make enquiries on the matter in the House of Commons?
June 15, 2016
@Reply – Saw your name in the list on order-order, thanks for putting your name to the rejection letter.
The question is what the Remain MPs will do now it must be a bit of a quandry, do they sign the rejection letter or do they side with Osbourne’s insane threat and cripple their re-election chances.
Reply Yes, it’s not easy being a Remain MP!
June 15, 2016
Sorry to do this but, playing Devils Advocate (again)…
Would Conservative Brexit MPs really vote down their own governbment, for surely if the Chancellor can not get his budget through parliament there is only one option for the PM, call an election -complete with Mr Cameron & Osborne still in post- seeking a refreshed mandate.
How would the electorate respond. Would Labour be hurt enough by the “Corbyn effect”, both his apparent unpopularity with core Blairites and by the core left-wing due to his sudden switch away from being a eurosceptic, how damaging would a dash to UKIP by disaffected core (eurosceptic) voters be to the Conservative party?
Perhaps Osborne was banking on the fact that turkeys do not tend to vote for Christmas, trouble for him and Cameron is that list of 57 plus names are of principled and democratic MPs, not just a group of PPE degree waving careerists looking only to keep their jobs and progress…
Reply As so many Conservatives are against this absurd budget it will never be delivered.
June 16, 2016
Reply to reply:
Don’t be so sure….
If he’s daft enough to publish it, he’s daft enough to deliver it.
Could it be watered down with some socialist and Scottish pledges, and hence make its way through the Commons?
June 15, 2016
To obviate such a dire scenario, can I suggest:-
Boris Johnson PM.
John Redwood Chancellor of the Exchequer.
Michael Gove Foreign Secretary.
Iain D Smith Home Secretary.
Priti Patel Minister of Education.
David Davies Ministry of Defence.
Chris Grayling Lord Chancellor.
Anthony Bamford Business. If he wishes.
Owen Patterson Environment
Daniel Hannan and Nigel Farage. Advisors to cabinet on workings of EU.
With apologies to any I have left out.
General advice:-
Minimise Bureaucracy KISS principal.
Reduce tax to free up business and the working population.
June 15, 2016
Looks pretty good to me Agricola. I think Britain could thrive with these in charge.
June 15, 2016
I don’t believe that Cameron will step down immediately and it would probably be better if he stays through the period of uncertainty ahead if we win.
The only way he could stay is if he steps back and appoints Boris as Foreign Secretary and Gove as Chancellor and allow them to conduct negotiations.
Only when an outline deal is in place will Cameron step down at a time of his choosing, giving Boris a clear run for the top job.
In the event of Brexit winning that seems to me to be the only way he could stay on an end his career with a small amount of dignity intact.
It will also neuter calls for an early general election which would certainly be demanded if he went immediately.
The economy would really suffer from the uncertainty caused, not just by Brexit, but from leadership elections, probably in both Conservative and Labour parties, followed almost immediately by a General Election.
That has to beavoided at all costs.
June 15, 2016
I think we’re going to need a cross-party government including at least Hoey, Field and Stuart. Brexit is not and should not be a “Tory Project”. If there’s a lesson from Thatcherism, it’s the need to take the country with you through reform.
June 15, 2016
@agricola; You can suggest it but you might have trouble getting some of those names past the electorate, even the slightest hint of some of those names being connected to their suggested positions in government would see many a would-be Tory voter either sitting on their hands or seeking a least worst alternative party, 5 years of a Corbyn government/coalition might even appeal to the floating voters any party need to win…
Oh and general advice, it is not tax per se that is hurting businesses, it is over regulation, tax relief on specific types of UK investment, to encourage (a resurgence in) UK manufacturing might be in order though.
Brexit should not be seen as a way to take a leap to the right, nor should it be seen that way by the left either for that mater, hint at it and it will backfire.
June 15, 2016
Unfortunately, JR might not be available as he has a blog to run ?
zorro
June 16, 2016
Daniel Hannan, for sure. What about Douglas Carswell and Matthew Elliot?
June 16, 2016
@hefner; If your intention is for the Conservatives to loose the election! I for one could never vote for a government who would likely promote at least one of those names up from a backbencher – in my opinion there is non less suited.
I’m not wedded to any political party, nor any political dogma, I’m not alone…
June 15, 2016
As far as I understand it, Osborne – Darling are working from a NIESR forecast from May. The latter has developed a macro forecasting model called NiGEM. This is basically a “New Keynesian – DSGE model with improved bells and whistles. Frankly, I have read a lot of this stuff; I have yet to find one that ever consistently, got anywhere near correctly forecasting horse races, never mind an economy.
It says on its site; “NiGEM is trusted by over forty prestigious organisations including the OECD, BoE and ECB and is open and transparent to both academic and peer review.” The IMF is in there as well. Organisations that are famous for consistently getting there forecasts spot-on!!!???
As ever, he who pays these New Keynesian macro pipers, calls the tune. And it would be smart to know what music the payers like to hear.
June 15, 2016
“… Brexit measures will include spending more on the NHS and abolishing VAT on fuel”, you say JR. As I have been asked for numbers on the subject, can you say if you mean the VAT on the “fuel” alone; or, does that include the VAT on the Duty?
For instance. Say, in round numbers per year, 28 billion litres of Diesel, plus 18 billion litres of Petrol (Gasoline), both at Ā£0.5795 per litre Duty, would attract Ā£5.3 billion in VAT on the Duty. The fuel element at today’s forecourt prices, 34 pence per litre, attracts Ā£3.1 billion in VAT. Total Ā£8.4 billion VAT. š
Reply Domestic heating fuel, not petrol, as set out in my Brexit budget with full costings
June 15, 2016
It seems to me that Osborne and Cameron are threatening for a “remain” as this will mean they have very little work to do. They are proving themselves to be the laziest and work-shy ministers EVER ! To have to negotiate our beneficial terms would be very onerous to them both.
June 15, 2016
Where’s the emergency? Nothing is going to happen on 24th June if we vote leave, so why the panic.
And he’s announcing all this alongside Alastair Darling – the man who he savaged for destroying the economy and leaving a mess for the Tories to inherit. Hardly a credible alliance is it?
June 15, 2016
He seems to have forgotten how Darling campainging alongside Tories for the Union went down.
So do Labour.
Even if it is “remain” I can see a big gain for UKIP from annoyed Tories *and* annoyed Labour voters.
June 15, 2016
I cannot believe how politically inept this announcement by Osborne is.
It is obvious that it would never get a majority in Parliament.
And could lead to a vote of no confidence which could bring down the Govt and cause a general election.
Labour are very unlikely to vote for further austerity.
Why plot your own downfall unless the aim is to create market panic.
Surely no Chancellor would deliberately do that would they?
June 15, 2016
Patrick Geddes
Surely no Chancellor would deliberately do that would they?
I do hope that you are not holding your breath on that one.
The man has totally and utterly lost the plot. Any other person with an ounce of principles would resign.
June 15, 2016
The Guardian Stoke On Trent video was heartening seeing all the Labour working class voting out. However I live in London and it’s hard to find a Leave supporter here. It seems to me that the whole Middle Class are voting Remain.
I’m still not feeling that confident!
Either way Osborne & Cameron have to go. I can see the two main parties breaking apart. It’s needed. The Tories have sold out all conservative thinking people. They are a disgrace!
Whilst I accept there are some good people like our host I cannot belong to a Party with senior people like Soubry , Morgan, Judd, Vaizy, Osborne, Hunt etc
June 15, 2016
I quite like George Osborne. What he is saying is he won’t know how to cope in his position if we vote to Leave. His rash pre-decision making is wild and uncontrolled and we need vote Leave to tell us what another Chancellor would do if things occur as George has predicted.
Alex Salmond is often presented as a UK MP in European debates etc. but I thought he was also a UK Council Minister (along with Lord John Prescott) – one of only 18 representing the UK in the law making Council of Ministers, this should be explained to people by the tv, he is already responsible for negotiating and adopting laws and co-ordinating policies and agreeing budgets.
Don’t we also have a European Council (or council of Europe) to promote democracy, human rights and the rule of law within its 40 FORTY member states? Would we be leaving this too?
June 15, 2016
If the UK votes to leave the EU on the 23rd, that does not mean we have left the EU on the 24th. This absurd notion that, somehow, we would need to almost immediately enact a range of desperate measures is both absurd and dangerous. Those in the Remain camp are really doing themselves, their reputations and their careers no good.
What positives do the Remain camp have ? Only I am yet to hear one.
June 15, 2016
Increasingly, only Remain MPs listen to the Remain Campaign’s silly tales of armageddon.
Remain’s over-the-top claims cannot even be satirised effectively in traditional hyperbole by Private Eye. They are just about at the zenith of active hyperthyroidism. An absolute pain in the neck. Lumps.
June 15, 2016
I think it’s brilliant. It’s like playing poker when you know your opponent has overplayed their hand.
This doesn’t come over as “well, if Brexit happens and there are economic problems, then we might have difficult choices” (which wouldn’t be unreasonable).
It comes over as a revenge threat.
June 15, 2016
Into Osborne”s dodgy dossier, I think he needs to add around Ā£3 Billion annual revenues from the revitalised fishing industry. Also, all those companies like Amazon, Starbucks, Google that paid EU tax will now have to pay UK tax, so add in a couple of Billion annually for those and our books will be looking far better than they do now!
June 15, 2016
I’ve no qualms about the Remain’s Campaign’s foot-soldiers. Many genuinely believe the nonsense they distribute. Their main interest in life may be computer engineering, teaching, lorry driving, taylor, candlestick maker. But one or two MPs on the Remain side know the truth. They quite obviously are well practiced in avoiding answering revealing questions. Such artifice betrays them. So apart from possible political career advancement or a cosy job in Brussels, why do they do it?
June 15, 2016
Not very responsible of George to cut the defence budget when the PM thinks there is going to be 3rd World war.
June 15, 2016
Very Good !!!
June 15, 2016
Even the Guardian is laughing at Osborne and Darling’s emergency budget plan.
Labour members from all wings of the party have said they won’t support it so Osborne has achieved the impossible and united the Labour Party !
This could well be seen as the turning point of the campaign.
It surely had to be Remain’s last throw of the dice and a clear demonstration that Cameron is willing to sacrifice even his closest political ally in order to try and cling on to office.
June 15, 2016
Another post-Brexit bounce dividend would be to end the escalatory tax punishment of smokers. Smokers tend to be in lower income groups, and it is time to stop victimising the poor in this way. The chancellor gloating at larding another huge tax rise onto roll-up smokers (who have largely switched to roll-ups due to price) at the last budget was particularly repellent.
Honestly, I would like Brexit to be the start of a return to classical liberalism, and away from nanny statism. This game of using tax to punish people who are unpopular around the dinner tables of Islington (which I daresay are smoke-free these days) has got to stop if we want to reclaim our birthright as a free people in a free country.
June 15, 2016
Just listened to the 7pm news on Radio 4. They report in full Osbourne’s contention that he will need an emergency budget to cope with a ’30 billion black hole’. All taken as holy writ. bu no mention of MP’s saying they will not allow such a thing, or that on PMQ’s Corbyn said Labour will not support it so it cannot happen.
June 15, 2016
And for their next trick they will announce they will be introducing conscription a) because WW3 is imminent and b) to frighten the under 40s into voting Remain.
Even if it works and we do remain they will have to this anyway because no self-respecting member of our current armed forces will want to serve in the European Defence Force.
June 16, 2016
The Israelites left slavery in Egypt after 10 plagues were visited on the Egyptians.
This time round, we will Leave our slavery in Europe after 10 threatened plagues that have failed to happen. There is still a danger of two plagues – a recession induced by the EuroZone and imposition of the 5 Presidents Report.
June 16, 2016
Why were there so many pro Remain questions at PMQs this afternoon. Ah yes, 75% of MPs are pro Remain. Something will need to be done about that PDQ.