I do not make public forecasts of results in elections where I am a candidate or in votes where I am closely involved on one side. If you forecast your own success it can look arrogant or complacent, and you need to keep working to persuade as many people as possible of your good intentions and just cause. Nor can you ever be sure you will win until you see the ballot boxes opened and the votes counted. Ā If you were silly enough to predict your own defeat your opponents would not let you forget it. I always think it odd broadcasters keep on asking participants if they are going to win or not, when I want to hear from them why I should vote for them and not waste time on punditry from the biased.
Now the polls have closed I will express a view of this referendum. I have always found itĀ strange Ā that the polls have generally been so close, and that most of the pollsters and pundits have united to tell us it is so close they cannot predict the outcome. 50/50Ā should be Ā an unlikely outcome, not theĀ norm or mean. Ā From what I have seen and heard I am anticipating a win for Leave.
Judging by the arguments and attitudes set out by the two campaigns, it seemed to me people began to disbelieve the greater fearsĀ about Brexit expressed by Ā the Remain side quite early on. They also began to take more note of just how restrictive and unhelpful the EU can be, and saw the dangers of staying in a body with very differentĀ aims Ā from the trade and friendshipĀ limited policies Ā shared by most UK voters.
June 23, 2016
Dear Dr Redwood,
I sincerely hope you are correct.
June 29, 2016
Will you be standing for the leadership of the Conservative Party, Dr. Redwood? It would be fantastic to have an intelligent, down to earth leader for a change.
June 23, 2016
I hope you’re right.
My area of south east Lincolnshire is hugely pro brexit so it’s hard to judge
June 23, 2016
Sound thoughts and I hope you are correct it is for Leave. If not, we must take comfort from the expectation that the Evil Empire by its own workings will perish at a later date and that the UK can then find its own salvation.
June 23, 2016
I can’t believe that Sky have got some hysterical doofus live-tracking the minute-by-minute fluctuations of sterling.
Nice to see our gracious host on the TV though.
June 24, 2016
Let us hope you are right.
I was very depressed when I saw the betting odds moving so hugely towards remain late yesterday and assumed they had more knowledge than they clearly had.
So despite all the sloping of the pitch by the BBC, Cameron and Osborne, the milking of the death of Jo Cox, the governments and the establishment propaganda the leave side seems set to win. It is amazing and superb. It is excellent news for democracy, the economy and the EU.
When the dust settles we will be far better off out, but will we get out?
The leave side is therefore, in reality, far stronger than even this. Let us hope some real Tories will now actually deliver the exit demanded by the people.
June 24, 2016
It’s only mid morning as I write this, but it seems to me that two themes are definately emerging, neither of which is exactly positive for the county.
1) If the result is as close as it’s appearing it will be, then whichever side “wins” hardly has a resounding mandate from the people. This question is therefore not going to go away, and even a winning remain vote hardly has a ringing endorsement from the electorate.
2) The voting patterns are clearly showing massive divisions of opinion between, Scotland, London and the regions of the UK on this subject. We now have a country which is strongly divided on a very significant issue.
The question will be – will Politicans even care about the second in a few days’ time?
June 24, 2016
Please let us know how we can best manage any exit process with minimum disruption to economic life and without breaking up the Union…Does the Brexit camp have an, at least a broadly agreed, process to disengage constructively?
June 24, 2016
Congratulations. This is revolution, made by the most unlikely revolutionaries in history.
We the people have done our duty. Over to the Parliamentarians. You have already performed heroic labours, Mr Redwood. Now your real work begins.
Where this leaves the European Union, who can say? What a bog those silly asses have made of their continent.
June 24, 2016
Morning John & congratulations. Look what has happened to the Ā£. You and the sensible leaders of Leave need to get a grip quickly on this and make sure the Government acts in a calm and rational way to secure the optimal outcome for our Country.
June 24, 2016
It is you who needs to get a grip. You are far too quick to rise to negativity and react to froth and speculation. As suspected, Carney put his sensible head on and reassured the markets re liquidity and asset quality. Cameron has given up the ghost, with Osborne to follow when he surfaces from the bunker and his twitter account. Not bad for a day’s work….
zorro
June 24, 2016
BBC and ITV have called it. I’m literally overjoyed.
Thank you so much for getting us our government back.
People will remember this for a long time.
I didn’t think we’d quite make it but we did.
Well done sir. Well done to all the Brexiteers.
June 24, 2016
Many congratulations to you, and all the Leavers of all Parties. What a night it has been. I thought your television interview on the economy Ā£ was excellent and you certainly put the interviewer right. I do hope the Eurosceptic MPs will now act boldly, swiftly and confidently and not stand any more nonsense from our biased media. The game is up, I truly believe, and Britain can now start the long road to recovery as a free nation and proud.
June 24, 2016
Brilliant effort, Dr JR, you have been a tower of strength in the defence of the United Kingdom. At the time of writing the BBC has grudgingly predicted victory for Leave and that Brexit is a reality.
One notes with concern that at least one Brexiteer, Jacob Rees-Mogg, is calling for a General Election. Why? Nothing is more likely to enrage a population deeply mistrustful of the elites, a point the M15 pencil rumour proves. No, now is the time to use Cameron’s mandate to the full and to negotiate the best possible deal for the UK. Hold off until 2020.
If Cameron wishes to resign he should not be discouraged, he has become an electoral liability. The Conservative Party has a strong list of alternative candidates and if you do not wish to lead yourself, one hopes you will be prominent in the next Cabinet.
The reaction from the EU in Brussels will be priceless. The oppressed and unemployed everywhere across Europe will be jubilant. In truth, we’ve done it again, and saved Europe from dictatorship.
Enjoy a quiet summer weekend with your family and friends, richly deserved.
June 24, 2016
Thank-you so much Mr. Redwood for all your years of work in helping to get us out of the EU. This is the greatest victory in politics since WW2 and you have played such a vital role in achieving it.
June 24, 2016
Well done JR. It looks like you and a few other have saved our country or at least given us a chance of not becoming a region of a bureaucracy. You deserve a medal.
Now you must make it impossible for the quislings to frustrate the will of the people. As a start please make it clear that young people will still be free to travel, make friends and marry their friends from our neighbours and that the functionaires in the Home Office will notbe allowed to carry on being silly b……s.
June 24, 2016
Well I did suggest Cameron should stay above the fray. Osborne must go he is an IHT ratting, wage controlling, landlord and tenant mugging economic illiterate. He also is responsible for the weakness of the pound with his project fear drivel.
Given the Markets a boost and appoint some one who is a least vaguely competent. Ennoble Alastair Heath perhaps or JR. Lilley to replace Rudd, get Owen Patterson back.
The fundamental for the UK are far better now. The market will catch on eventually. The fundamentals for the Tories are better now too. Freedom, democracy, selective immigration, lower taxes, free trade, a bonfire of red tape and European cooperation. If you love Europe the EU is the enemy.
Thank goodness the evil milking of Jo Cox’s tragic death (by many in remain) Toynbee and indeed by the BBC did not work.
I assume we will get a bank holiday for June 23 Independence Day and a rid of Osborne day.
The BBC with their agenda of Pro EU, pro green grap, pro ever more regulation, pro climate alarmism, pro ever more tax borrow and waste, their magic money tree agenda and ever more government must be addressed. They distort the whole of politics of the UK hugely.
June 24, 2016
Cameron climbed on the wrong horse despite my helpful advice.
Had the Tories supported leave it would have been more like 2 to 1 for leave. The Tories should have been for low tax, Anti EU, smaller government at the last two elections and would have done far better. The greencrap pro EU modernising drivel of Libdim Cameron was a huge mistake.
June 24, 2016
And of course Farage.
How can we ensure the BBC never tries to destroy democracy in the UK ever again, with their appalling agenda and huge biases on so many issues. Wrong on all of them pretty much too. Even this morning they are still on the “UK has made a mistake agenda”.
Perhaps more that 2 to 1 in England how can Cameron types be so out of touch?
June 24, 2016
Well, you called it right again John – I only hope the Government call on you and other sensible Leavers to help sort things out in what will be a massive task.
June 24, 2016
It’s now 05:52 and like most contributors to JRD, I’ve been glued to the TV and computer screen since 10pm.
It became clear quite quickly that things were going our way and for some hours, while the BBC held back, ITV were calling it for Vote Leave 85%/15%
At last the BBC have called it for our side so I would like to congratulate our kind host, John Redwood and all of the regular contributors here who have spent so much time posting here and on many other platforms.
What comes next, we can only speculate but if there is any justice, our host should be given very senior role in negotiating our way out.
Cameron will probably cling on, a necessary move, in my view, in order to maintain stability. Having seen Andrea Leadsom on TV this morning, she would be an excellent choice to take over as Chancellor by lunchtime today, unless, of course, he appoints Michael Gove instead.
Exciting times lay ahead. A new start for our country, long overdue.
June 24, 2016
Joy!!!!!!!!! And you take much credit for this deliverance. Thank you!
The British people have struck a blow against the Evil Empire from which it may never recover. The UK must now act as a beacon of hope to the oppressed of the EU.
June 24, 2016
EU disintegrating, pound decimated.
sound money proponents are ecstatic
June 24, 2016
Result!
June 24, 2016
The cat is amongst the pigeons, GAME ON.
June 24, 2016
Congrats
June 24, 2016
Dr Redwood
May I say that I’m sorry that I asked you to resign from this government on several occaisions. I never believed a Leave result to be possible, fearing that Project Fear would be so overwhelming. You held fast and proved me wrong. I’m so very glad that you did.
Thank you so very much for your good work and determination.
At least we have taken away the mandate for EU interference. Justine Greening is already talking in these terms:
“This Government has to accommodate the near 50% who want to Remain – and the young who took part too.” (from memory)
So I expect they will attempt to give us a watered down version of Brexit. Never mind the fact that a good part of that 50% were being scared witless by Remain lies.
I know no-one who loves the EU and plenty who hate it – even those who voted for it.
Most people love our country.
Let’s have it back.
June 24, 2016
Congratulations Mr Redwood and thank you for your tireless efforts.
June 24, 2016
Well done JR, Boris, Gove, Hannan and all the rest. Well done Cameron and the EU for getting such a patently duff and pointless deal.
Tell Osborne to go and take his wage controls, absurd stamp duty levels, IHT ratting and the rest of his insanitiescwith him.
June 24, 2016
And of course Forage,
How can we ensure the BBC never tries to destroy democracy in the UK ever again, with their appalling agenda and huge biases on many issues. Wrong on all of them.
June 24, 2016
Well done for all your hard work in swimming against the tide and for your insightful comments throughout the Referendum campaign. I hope you get to play a very active part in taking this great country forward. I see that my vote didn’t quite square with the majority of your constituents but also note that a night of thunder and lightning has been followed by bright blue skies today, the dawn of a challenging but exciting new era.
June 24, 2016
Oh joy! Couldn’t sleep all night and kept dreaming that we would lose so when I turned the news on at 6.30 this morning I couldn’t quite believe it. However, when Emily Maitless or what ever her name is started asking if we would actually leave I thought, here we go, we will have to vote again. I also note the money markets have started to panic. John, will they settle?
Now is the time for Conservatives to demand Cameron and Osborne are replaced by people who want to take this forward with gusto, get the markets confident again and let us work together to make this country great again.
God, Scotland voted to remain. I did not. Sturgeon will start now and who ever is in government needs to tell her that there will be no permission given for another independence referendum because the future of the UK is uppermost in their minds and it would be too much turmoil if it were to happen at the same time.
Well done to all Leave campaigners and I like to think that many of us made a difference too with your help. What a day for Britain.
June 24, 2016
Well after the victory we have had the Chairman of BT being interviewed on Bloomberg TV early this morning: when confronted that places like “Doncaster” had voted for Brexit he stated that “many people actually didn’t vote “. Also on the BBC this morning Mr Ummuna questioning the authenticity of the vote on similar grounds. Mr Rake, remarked that he hoped somehow the Movement of People” would somehow continue and he stated he is sure he speaks for all British Business. Perhaps someone can tell him that the Referendum speaks for all British Business full stop.
June 24, 2016
Brilliant. Well done, John. Thank you George (Soros).
June 24, 2016
We have won – the UK will leave the EU. It is absolutely vital that we do not invoke Article 50 to leave. The Article 50 route is expensive, complicated and a trap.
June 24, 2016
FREE AT LAST, WE ARE FREE AT LAST!
The sun is shining, the air is clear and fresh.
WE ARE FREE AT LAST.
We can soon now turn our attention to England.
June 24, 2016
Excellent news this morning, thank you JR.
June 24, 2016
I propose a Cabinet post for John Redwood.
June 24, 2016
Congratulations John. Something that I know, first-hand, that you have worked towards for such a long time. As you know, I have always been very much with you in your beliefs and, now that it has happened, I hope that the UK can make it work. I will be honest and say that I changed my mind at the last minute and voted ‘remain’ simply because I really don’t know if we can make independence work for us. I hope that we can and I know that you will keep fighting to see that we do.
Best
Warwick
June 24, 2016
It is a strange feeling. If the renegotiations were more decisive and we had the opportunity to ensure that the UK remained English , Welsh, Scottish and Irish , I believe we wouldn’t be in this situation. There comes to a point in all decisions where prosperity takes second place, yet I believe prosperity will come .
David Cameron did say that whatever the decision he would implement the changes, Jeremy Corbyn also says that the people have spoken. The markets say that we are scared. The exporters and manufacturing say wow people will buy and then the wheel should turn as people buy and the markets will be more confident.
The Church of England will be glad that it will not be wiped out by too many other religions. What we need are managers who are not cut throat and employees who believe that we can build Britain again.
June 24, 2016
Sadly the leadership of the CofE, ++Welby and Sentamu, had come out for Remain.
Very unwise to bet on a two horse race. Tossing a coin gives the same odds and doesn’t offend 50% of the electorate.
June 24, 2016
Congratulations to us all but particularly to the Eurosceptic stalwarts such as yourself, Sir William Cash and David Davies. Thank you I am grateful for the improved future of my family.
For the future I would like to see a Minister for EU exit who is more senior than the Foreign Secretary and whose portfolio includes inward investment and the city. I would advocate you Mr Redwood for this role but in your stead Michael Gove. I really would like Gisela Stewart involved but hope more than anything that Mr Cameron ditches his EUphile colleagues in favour of the the three stalwarts mentioned above and other strong leave performers.
Vive le monarchy
June 24, 2016
Result. Now we have to make sure Cameron and his mates Gideon are nowhere near the negotiations
June 24, 2016
We have won (astonishingly) very good news but the markets, most MPs and Brussels are not happy. Now the blackmailing will begin. We will be told to vote again or else.
June 24, 2016
John – the sun shone this morning !. My wife woke me with the news – “It’s Independence Day !” . I rubbed my eyes and thought of the future of my daughter and all the others freed from the tangles of Brussels .
Well done to you John and to everyone who fought for our country .
June 24, 2016
Quoted you and attempted to answer your question about the ‘norm and mean’ with referendums here:
http://figures-of-speech.com/2016/06/referendum.htm
June 24, 2016
Bravo Zulu John
This result is a credit to you and your colleagues and although we had to rely on some strange bedfellows we have all achieved our dream of being in control of our own destiny.
Already the loser’s are talking it down and the biggest fear must be who will be at the head of the negotiations and what will be the make up of the team.
How damaging could be the HoL in this changeover process?
If we are told that all the remainer’s in the cabinet are staying for this task it will be akin to leaving the foxes in charge of the chicken house when you are moving farms.
Already there is talk of invoking Article 50 and even the Bank of England is recommending caution.
Cameron and the majority of his cabinet has to go because we of the rank and file of leaver’s do not trust them.
Mr Farage has already mentioned that this could be the beginning of the end of the Europe Project and hopefully others will follow our lead.
Before Scotland’s First Minister jumps in the fray without thinking she should at first get her ducks in a row.
Do you Europe want them?
Will they have to apply to join?
Have they got all the main criteria for membership in place?
If not how long is the joining process?
If they vote independence what if Europe collapses?
At long last the shackles are broken and we must not allow those who were against our freedom be allowed to hold us back from the wonderful opportunities that now await the people of this country.
June 24, 2016
The result of the EU Referendum is about both our ability & others to be allowed to Govern themselves.
The Markets will calm down and our Country will progress.
Thank you for making the case in a calm and reasoned manner so that we can appreciate the argument and then decide . Others in your Party should have also acted more like Statesmen than barrow boys.
That said , we need to re group and move forward with a positive agenda for all our
June 24, 2016
Cameron has to go immediately. He has no credibility to lead the country after this. Osborne must go as well. The prospect of him continuing in office is absurd.
June 24, 2016
The genie is out of the bottle!
June 24, 2016
The sun is shining and it’s a beautiful day!
David Cameron’s behaviour (and Osborne’s) throughout the campaign has been nothing short of a disgrace. Lies, smears and threats betrayed the simple fact that membership of the EU has been a thoroughgoing disaster for the UK. What positive case could be made for membership? None.
The Prime Minister’s position is by any rational analysis untenable. So he should resign immediately to make way for someone prepared to implement Brexit swiftly and efficiently. But since when did rationality count in the world of politics? If he remains there is little prospect of him doing anything other than working to subvert the process of leaving by every means within his power.
June 24, 2016
We cannot make a successful implementation of the vote to leave with the head remainders (Cameron and Osborne ) in Government.
Having threatened the Public and being bereft of ideas on our trading arrangements they must go.
Thank goodness the majority did not fall for Cameron’s confidence trick – his reformed European Union.
June 24, 2016
Well, we did it eh. A lot of us made contributions in our different ways, big and small. I think enormous plaudits should go to our host and his colleagues for sticking with it throughout the years when to leave the EU was thought unfashionable and even mad. And also for submitting graciously to the occasional kickings from his own side on here.
I see the PM has just resigned. Inevitable. I confess I feel a little sorry for him, he could have chosen to be a great PM, instead of a strange combination of Stanley Baldwin and Harold Wilson. Interesting times.
June 24, 2016
Throughout the night sterling fluctuated as each result came in. And now today, we find Ā£100+ billion wiped off the FTSE. When is something going to be done to stop those unethical bankers from cashing in on our lives and livelihoods?
June 24, 2016
John, how will George Osborne cope now, we can’t trust him after he said he’d have no alternative but to put in a damaging budget in place, can you be put on a transition cabinet with him (until the new PM elects his own Chancellor) to give him and the public the benefit of your calm, measured advice.
June 24, 2016
Just listened to David Cameron’s resignation speech. Very much the statesman pity he left it until now to act like one. George Osborne has to be next. My preference for a new leader of the Conservative party is Michael Gove. No doubt a cabinet post for you is now possible. You deserve one.
June 24, 2016
Thank you for all of your efforts in the campaign over the years.
I hope you are part of the tough re-negotiation to come.
June 24, 2016
Looks like you are right. Are there plans to have a so-called, Ministry for Brexit? If so, would you consider joining it? I don’t really expect you to answer that, but we need strong Brexiteers to lead us towards our eventual departure; people who are not prone to overreaction, who are resolutely pro-UK business and who do not bend under pressure – people like yourself. If our Ministry for Brexit (for want of a better term) is populated by the shriekers and doom-mongers we have seen during this referendum, I fear the future of this country will be far worse than it otherwise would have been, if we remained.
My personal belief is that this is where the hard work starts. It is merely the beginning. Firstly, stability must be brought back to the markets. The message should resolutely be that in the short to medium term, nothing has changed. Even when it does change, there will be plenty of notice as new deals take shape. The markets have no reasons to lose their minds, as nothing has fundamentally changed in the here and now. The underlying fundamentals of the economy are the same. They will continue to be the same. An invitation should be made to the banking and business sectors to shape our future – what kind of UK economy would they like to have once we start to disengage from the EU?
The second step is implementing it. Expectations should be played down over the timetable for this. We need a steady hand on the tiller and not rush into action. In that truly British sense – we need to Keep Calm, And Carry On.
June 24, 2016
Good morning Mr Redwood. And isn’t it a good morning? It’s a bit cloudy here but still the most beautiful morning I’ve ever awoken to.
Thank you for your tireless campaigning down the years which has undoubtedly had a significant impact on many of yesterday’s Leave voters.
Now we begin the rebuilding of Great Britain. Onwards.
June 24, 2016
Thank you John Redwood for your hard work and honourable actions – I hope you enjoy this historic day.
I am grateful at this time of uncertainty we can count on you to offer reassurance and help guide us on the right path.
Onwards to a better more democratic future.
June 24, 2016
Can I share the sentiment too. You have made and enormous contribution to my understanding of in/out and I too am very pleased with the result.
June 24, 2016
It is a beautiful morning. I was annoyed to hear every channel on the Biased BBC once again talking Britain down, and going on about short-sighted, xenophobic the disaster that has befallen us. Truly I hope that the next Conservative government has the courage to shut down anti-democratic, anti-British BBC for once and for all.
June 24, 2016
And your view was vindicated! I have never been more struck by emotion by any event; it is a very great moment for our country. I think Mr Cameron did himself real credit by the way he made his announcement. It is now vital that we get the right Prime Minister to deliver on what I have always thought would be a victory for common sense if it happened. I will be rejoining the Conservative party.
I would like to thank you for the clarity with which you have made the arguments to Leave; I have found this very helpful indeed.
June 24, 2016
Congratulations to you and everyone else who worked tirelessly for this result. This is truly a monumental day in our history, but we must not be complacent. Our EU ‘friends’ may wish to make life difficult for us, and can we trust the majority of our own parliamentarians to pay ball and respect the people’s will?
June 24, 2016
The dust is now settling ; Cameron has spoken and confirmed he will step down in a couple of months . Reading between the lines it is also obvious that Osborne will have to go and a more “right wing” leadership of the country put in place .The Eurosceptics have won the day and their voices will count for a great deal more ; for this – and other reasons , I am very pleased .
When the nominations and choices are made for the new leaders I sincerely hope that due weight will be given to the values of real experience ; we have suffered too much from the inadequacies of youth at the helm ; it is now time to steer the ship with capable hands whose navigation knows where and how to take us safely and securely to our destination .
I would definitely want to see our host installed as Chancellor ; his background , knowledge and competence are without equal for the job . Frankly I would design the whole of the Cabinet around him to get a sound result and give back to the country the confidence we all need .
June 24, 2016
Thanks Mr Redwood for your consistently positive voice on Brexit, and your efforts towards that aim.
June 24, 2016
Also, John, as you kept pointing out, the long term bond rates have continued to fall as Brexit approached. today’s exchange-rate volatility is being widely quoted on the BBC as a sign of things to come, no memory of the past, not the slightest thought amongst our foremost ‘experts’ that Soros-type gamblers are riding the price down and up again!
June 24, 2016
Well called John !
Boris striking the right tone today I thought.