Confidence returns

As bonds stay at record high prices  and the FTSE 100 share index surges above the levels  prior to the referendum, there are quiet signs of more activity around the economy. Local estate agents tell me buyers are back viewing and making offers for homes after a lull before the vote. Retail sales were growing at a fast 6% in May, and are probably still growing after the events of June 23rd. A local Independent Financial adviser told me that only four of his clients had phoned after the vote to ask about what was going on and two of those saw it as a buying opportunity. His portfolios were generally up in value on the pre vote levels.

Yesterday Governor Carney seemed to be  still trying to talk things down with revisions to the Bank of England’s  outlook with possible lower growth at some date in the future. Sometime making comments allegedly designed to stabilise can have the opposite effect as it gives media and journalists another chance to run out the old Project Fear estimates and forecasts. Some large companies are still being pessimistic, but many more are now coming round to the idea that there can be a profitable and successful life after Brexit. Indeed, there are many new opportunities. Various countries are indicating they want a trade deal with a newly independent UK.  What a refreshing contrast from punishment Europe, sending out harsh words of how the UK has to be taught a lesson so no other country wants to leave.

It is odd they want to make the EU into a prison where you can check in but cannot check out. Surely if membership is as good as they said before the vote no other country will want to leave. Or are they  now accepting that it has the drawbacks others identified, and it is an inconvenient truth they do not want out?

It’s also an odd idea that free trade is an advantage to just one of the two sides, which can only be granted if you accept lots of other things you do not like. I suspect we will discover that continental service businesses want passports  to the UK for their products, that  German car companies want tariff free access to our market, and French farmers want to be able to sell without difficulty to us as well. They will realise free trade is a two way process which requires  both sides to agree.

Isn’t it time the UK authorities and leading companies either said nothing, or found something positive to say?  Why try and talk confidence down, when in the market many people are still willing to buy and sell, and when most of the UK  the financial markets are now performing well.

They need to understand that the move down in sterling is a monetary stimulus. it means the UK is cheaper for foreign investors, tourists and buyers of our goods. No wonder many UK shares are surging. I don’t remember that bit in the gloom laden official forecasts.

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119 Comments

  1. Newmania
    Posted July 1, 2016 at 5:26 am | Permalink

    This is becoming sad. can you not understand why Bonds are in demand seriously ? As for the fact that your local estate agent thinks its ok ….. words fail me
    Can I try to give you a little perspective ? Serious economists are not debating whether or not we have damaged ourselves , obviously we have and this is only the beginning .We are still in the single market , we have not as yet caused the flight of our services media IT Pharmaceutical companies to within the market . No-one is investing or employing and it will get worse
    Right now all you are seeing is fear , imagine the real thing . No; real economists are debating whether or not the actions of crazed cultists will spread an infection of panic around the globe and impoverish our neighbours as well as ourselves overall they seem to think not
    Its not just the Bank of England , the government has abandoned its spending target s , just like that . After years in which they stuck to their guns , cheered on by you, despite endless misery , we are blowing a hole in the budget , once again cheered on by you.

    In this context you are still , in all seriousness talks about some imagined bounty for the NHS?
    It insults the intelligence of a Brexiteer ? How many billions must be demanded of you children to save your reputation . This is your fault and if you think censoring the truth from your blog is going to save you THINK AGAIN

    reply There is no evidence that Brexit will cause a recession or damage fibpnancial assets as forecast by Remain. FTSe 100 up, UK credit rating in market much improved, bonds up, economy likely to continue growing this year

    • Richard1
      Posted July 1, 2016 at 7:30 pm | Permalink

      Certainly your gloomy prognosis is in line with established opinion – the FT is positively funeral at the moment. But why should this be right? What will cause a recession? The Negative forecasts produced by the likes of the Treasury during the campaign assumed trade tariffs on UK exports to the EU but maintenance of EU external tariffs agaist rest of the world by the UK – a highly unlikely outcome. Where will – eg – large banks relocate to? Paris with its outright hostility to financial markets and high taxes? Frankfurt with its rigid employment laws and no clients? Which countries will actually be in the euro (and therefore the Eurozone) in 2 years time? It would be a very foolish looking board which decided to close up in the uk to make huge new investment elsewhere only to find they had picked a country about to leave the euro! It is bound to be shaky in the initial weeks and months but I see no reason at all why Brexit necessarily means recession. I’d be more concerned about the Eurozone countries. Greece lurches from one crisis to the next, Portugal is in hot dispute with the EU over budgets and Italy faces a banking crisis which must mean either a major breach of Eurozone rules for a bailout or exit from the euro.

    • getahead
      Posted July 1, 2016 at 7:36 pm | Permalink

      Newmania, do get a grip old chap. We do not need to be controlled/ ruled/ governed by an unelected committee in Brussels in order to trade with the countries of Europe. We can manage quite well without all that unnecessary bureaucracy.

    • Simon Ian
      Posted July 2, 2016 at 7:09 am | Permalink

      Well said Newmania. The cognitive dissonance on display here is quite alarming, as is the paranoia.

    • libertarian
      Posted July 2, 2016 at 10:45 am | Permalink

      Newmania

      Making it up as you go along is pointless, you haven’t got a single shred of evidence for any of your wild ramblings

      For what its worth on the job front, I added just over 9,400 new job vacancies this week in my region , so you are wrong on that. You have less than a clue about the workings of the BUSINESS of financial services have you the remotest idea of the phenomenal cost of relocating the technology and processing capacity of the city to anywhere else? You need to get a grip on reality chum

  2. Antisthenes
    Posted July 1, 2016 at 5:38 am | Permalink

    The most important people on this planet are the consumers. However many ignorant of sound economics; politicians and people act as if it is the producer. Tariffs only protect producers and are therefore not good for the consumer. The consumer is entitled to the best products or services at the lowest price where ever they come from. If the UK declared itself a free trade area it is estimated that it would add 3% to GDP. Certainly the pattern of employment would change as some business would die and others born. However the greater competition would motivate businesses to perform better.

    Protect producers from competition and all that is achieved is shoddy over priced goods and services. Examples; the NHS, Network rail, CAP, government(although in a few limited area that is a price worth paying) the list is endless.

  3. oldtimer
    Posted July 1, 2016 at 5:38 am | Permalink

    So long as the drama within the Westminster bubble continues to grab attention and generate astonishment there will be uncertainty. The sooner the Conservative leadership election is concluded the better because until it is there will be a political vacuum. That vacuum provides opportunities for alarmist narratives to develop – which is what we see daily.

  4. Jerry
    Posted July 1, 2016 at 5:53 am | Permalink

    “Isn’t it time the UK authorities and leading companies either said nothing, or found something positive to say?”

    No, and why should they (to make Brexitiers feel better perhaps?), and let’s not forget John that around 50% of the population might well find your own comment rather hypocritical seeing that they would say you had no problems in talking the UK -and our membership of the EU- down. People should speak their minds, as they see it, anything else is spin-doctoring and perhaps worse, party political spin-doctoring or even simple lies.

    • Roy Grainger
      Posted July 1, 2016 at 9:31 am | Permalink

      Why should they ? Because talking down the economy by the authorities and companies is a collective act of self-harm. It will make the economy worse. In the case of companies it will disproportionately affect their share price (witness Friend Branson) because sentiment plays a large part in share prices. It is also futile because the vote is over and Brexit will happen and they just have to get on with it. Company CEOs should also remember that more than 50% of their shareholders voted for Brexit. Your suggestion that the governor of the BoE should “speak his mind” is just bizarre – you want him to warn against the dangers to the economy of the Labour party under Corbyn getting elected in 2020 for example ?

    • a-tracy
      Posted July 1, 2016 at 10:07 am | Permalink

      Jerry I’m usually with you defending the BBC but their behaviour has been poor and unbalanced. Bad news articles left up for five days and more and good news articles only getting a brief if any mention and then taken down after an hour. Makes you wonder why? I must start to write down all the examples I’ve seen this week.

    • Patrick Geddes
      Posted July 1, 2016 at 11:10 am | Permalink

      Pointing out the existing and current problems in the EU is very different to commentators predicting doom and recession in the future for the UK.
      Of course people have a right to speak their mind and voice their opinions.
      But that is not what the original artcle was arguing for, as the quote in your reply confirms.
      There is a danger of all these negative predictions becoming a self fulfilling prophecy as confidence reduces inside the UK and in the wider world as a result.
      And despite reading Mr Redwood’s articles here for some time and in Parliament I have never,ever heard him “talk the UK down”
      Quite the oposite.

      • Jerry
        Posted July 1, 2016 at 8:44 pm | Permalink

        @Patrick Geddes; “Pointing out the existing and current problems in the EU is very different to commentators predicting doom and recession in the future for the UK.”

        Except that the Brexit argument was largely built upon predictions of further EU doom and gloom with even closer political union, loss of sovereignty, unrestricted and ever greater numbers of migrants causing the collapse of services if not society its self etc.), and whenever the BSE side said that better things would come via reform the Brexit side responded with comments about the EU not being able to reform – an assertion, but not a fact.

        “There is a danger of all these negative predictions becoming a self fulfilling prophecy as confidence reduces inside the UK and in the wider world as a result.”

        Funny, I seem to recall the BSE side saying much the same about all the doom and gloom spread about the EU and our membership within…

        “And despite reading Mr Redwood’s articles here for some time and in Parliament I have never,ever heard him “talk the UK down” Quite the oposite.”

        That is an opinion and that is the point, you obviously never talked to people who wanted a ‘Remain’ result, the BSE side most certainly did see those campaigning for a Brexit as doing just that!

        • Patrick Geddes
          Posted July 2, 2016 at 8:09 am | Permalink

          Reform…Cameron failed and the EU commission said repeatedly that there would be no reform.
          So a fact not predictions.

          Project Fear was the Remain side tactic.And a reason they failed.

          If you have examples of Mr Redwood “talking the UK down” rather than vague insinuation then let’s see them otherwise my point stands.

          • Jerry
            Posted July 2, 2016 at 9:24 am | Permalink

            @Patrick Geddes; I agree but it is not a fact, its an opinion, an assertion, and those on the BSE side think differently meaning that ~50% of the population will, and do, believe that the Brexit side have been talking the UK down.

            Not only that but supporters of BSE will consider that Brexit used their own “Project Fear”, UKIP used fear of immigration, our host used fear of the lost of sovereignty.

            Try seeing things from outside the tunnel…

          • Patrick Geddes
            Posted July 2, 2016 at 9:19 pm | Permalink

            Ditto Jerry

          • Jerry
            Posted July 4, 2016 at 8:03 am | Permalink

            @Patrick Geddes; I am outside the tunnel, hence why I give our host (and others…) a hard time when they gloss over issues! That doesn’t mean I’m not basically for Brexit though.

    • Andrew Black
      Posted July 1, 2016 at 11:47 am | Permalink

      It seems to me that you want it both ways. “People should speak their minds” but only if they agree with you.

      Whatever opinion you may have of John Redwood, it is hard to see how you can accuse him of hypocrisy, when over his entire political career, he has been a consistent and vocal critic of the EU.

  5. Richard1
    Posted July 1, 2016 at 5:55 am | Permalink

    Which other countries have indicated they want trade deals?

    Will the government be setting out the ‘worst case’ of trade under WTO rules so we can understand what that means, not only for trade but also for travel, study and work in the EU, in the event it’s not possible to get a sensible deal?

    • a-tracy
      Posted July 1, 2016 at 10:08 am | Permalink

      Richard1 do you really think that the rest of the EU don’t want to continue to trade with us or accept our travel? Do they stop Americans, Australians and the Swiss from working in the EU or travelling within the EU?

      • Richard1
        Posted July 1, 2016 at 5:14 pm | Permalink

        Americans and Australians require visas and work permits. Swiss until recently have been covered by free movement. The EU are currently debating expelling Switzerland from its single market access as a referendum there voted against free movement. I do think the EU will want a deal, but if controlled immigration is a red line for the UK – as is currently asserted by JR and others – we need to know what the alternative looks like if it’s also a red line for the EU.

      • Jerry
        Posted July 1, 2016 at 8:58 pm | Permalink

        @a-tracy; I wish you (and others) would stop talking about “countries”, there are no countries when it comes to EU trade talks, just the EU and they have said that unless the UK accept their “Four Freedoms” there will be no deal beyond WTO rules – what is more they are now saying that any negotiations towards a trade deal can not start until the UK have left the EU.

        • Patrick Geddes
          Posted July 1, 2016 at 9:42 pm | Permalink

          So are you saying if the UK offers a free trade deal to any nation that wants to sign up there will be no European nations wanting to do a deal?

          • Jerry
            Posted July 2, 2016 at 7:07 am | Permalink

            @Patrick Geddes; Correct, well not from within the EU27, they will not be allowed to, trade agreements are done collectively, at the EU level.

          • Patrick Geddes
            Posted July 2, 2016 at 10:25 am | Permalink

            I will have a wager with you that individual European nations will soon be trading with the UK on a tariff free arrangement or on very low reciprocal WTO tariff arrangements.

          • Jerry
            Posted July 3, 2016 at 6:24 am | Permalink

            @Patrick Geddes; If you mean EU member countries, not unless they first leave the EU!

  6. formula57
    Posted July 1, 2016 at 6:00 am | Permalink

    It is past time that the UK Government started delivering a positive message but we alas have to await the Conservative Party choosing a new leader before that can begin it seems.

    And as you will know, it was Governor Carney’s words on interest rates and the prospect of more QE in the face of expectations of economic weakness in the UK that has done much to drive markets to reprice bonds and shares.

  7. Caterpillar
    Posted July 1, 2016 at 6:02 am | Permalink

    “EU into a prison …” I guess ‘their’ argument would be a prisoners’ dilemma one, but I don’t think it would be correct because even as a cartel EU doesn’t seem to outperform what the parts could achieve (even if only diseconomies of scale).

    Yep Mr Carney is still behaving like a one trick pony, and yep it is time for more people to talk up the opportunities and to get on with it. It is a shame that Mr Johnson has been thrown overboard, we can wish for the intellect of Leadsom or Gove to replace Cameron, but the country has made a mistake in down valuing vision. I still fear though it will be one of the remainers that win.

  8. Horatio McSherry
    Posted July 1, 2016 at 6:08 am | Permalink

    Mr. Carney’s behaviour, along with almost all the establishment (and media), has been utterly scurrilous. Why did he have to make that speech yesterday? It seems the only people not seeing positives and opportunities are the ones who supposedly work in Britain’s interests. It also seems there are some powerful people still writhing and lashing out in anger at being defied by the proletariat.

    Interesting developments in the Conservative leadership race yesterday. At first glance Mr. Gove’s manouver seemed Mandelsonian in its breath-taking skullduggery (supported by Osbourne via Morgan?) but Hestletine’s burning rage makes you wonder if the Hestletines, Clarkes et al viewed/had Boris as the Remain cuckoo, and that Gove might actually be playing it straight. If, but, maybe etc, etc…

    • Roy Grainger
      Posted July 1, 2016 at 9:34 am | Permalink

      Heseltine’s rage at Boris withdrawing is totally illogical. He seems to be saying he actually WANTS Boris to be PM even though he thinks it would be a disaster ? I mean can anyone understand what his position is ? Still, he’ll get plenty of BBC invitations if he keeps it up.

      • getahead
        Posted July 1, 2016 at 7:53 pm | Permalink

        Why do the media pay any attention to Clarke or Heseltine, or for that matter Blair, Brown or Major? None of whom with hindsight were satisfactory in office. So what do they know now?

    • stred
      Posted July 1, 2016 at 10:10 am | Permalink

      The DT article today has Gove having dinner with Osborne during the campaign when the dodgy forecasts were being produced and being annoyed when Boris refused to let him have his strange little assistant running Leave in government. The goings on make the Borgias look honest.

  9. Know-dice
    Posted July 1, 2016 at 6:50 am | Permalink

    “you can check in but cannot check out. “

    I think the expression is “you can checkout, but you can never leave” which seems to be the aim of the faux Brixiteers & Remainders.

    We always hear the Remianders say “the EU has its flaws and is not ideal…BUT”. That “BUT” is not acceptable to me, so pain now for gain later is the name of the game.

  10. Ian Wragg
    Posted July 1, 2016 at 6:59 am | Permalink

    John. I think it’s important you explain the difference between access to the single market and part of the single market.
    Many politicians deliberately confuse the two implying you have to be part of the single market and bound by ECJ decisions to trade. USA Canada and the rest of the world aren’t part of the single market but trade successfully.
    I thought Mark Carney was a disgrace waffling on after being wrong all the time in office.
    Obviously taking the queue from Lagarde.

    • getahead
      Posted July 1, 2016 at 7:56 pm | Permalink

      Single Market with capitals Ian.

      • getahead
        Posted July 1, 2016 at 7:58 pm | Permalink

        cue from Lagarde?

  11. David Webb
    Posted July 1, 2016 at 6:59 am | Permalink

    Free trade between self-governing (and well-governed) democratic nations is the way ahead.
    International standards for products and services are fine where they act in the interests of the consumers of those products and services (rather than barriers to entry and reinforcement of cartels).
    Easy movement of people between nations is a good thing – ‘free movement’ (if it means automatic access to the benefits of the receiving state without that state and its citizens having control over who comes) is not.
    International cooperation – on science, environment, crime, security, financial stability, and a thousand other areas – is hugely beneficial. But it does not need to be under the umbrella of a single superstate; indeed it is counterproductive to be so.
    As a response to the history of the first half of the 20th century, the intent of the EU founding fathers made sense. It also played a positive part in the happy transition of E Europe from dictatorship and subjugation to democracy and liberalisation.
    Those days are now gone. The EU is now the problem, not the solution. Power must flow back from the European institutions to the national capitals, and they should get their currencies back.
    Let’s hope 23 June 2016 is seen as the start of a new bright era – not just for UK citizens, but for all our friends in Europe constrained by unnecessary regulation, and where the only means of a good economic future is to uproot themselves from their own communities and head to the few booming but overcrowded cities and regions.

  12. turboterrier
    Posted July 1, 2016 at 7:06 am | Permalink

    Isn’t it time the UK authorities and leading companies either said nothing, or found something positive to say?

    It would help if the B****hit Broadcasting Company took notice of your advice or better still closed down their news programmes with immediate effect.

    • Jerry
      Posted July 1, 2016 at 9:35 am | Permalink

      @turboterrier; Oh do stop shooting the messengers! What next, get the FT shut down, get Blomberg and CNBC taken off the UK’s EPGs…

      Sounds like you want the UK to become the new USSR or GDR, with only state controlled media with nothing but “good news stories” and those tractor production figures.

      • getahead
        Posted July 1, 2016 at 8:04 pm | Permalink

        “Sounds like you want the UK to become the new USSR or GDR, with only state controlled media with nothing but “good news stories” and those tractor production figures.”
        Jerry, that’s what we have. The BBC continually promotes its anti- conservative, pro-liberal agenda.

        • Jerry
          Posted July 2, 2016 at 7:12 am | Permalink

          @getahead; The one flaw in your rant is that the BBC is not the only broadcaster or media outlet in the UK [1], as I indicated,, and as those other outlets are often reporting the same markets news and figures etc. (sometimes before the BBC does)….

          [1] or international for that mater

          • Edward2
            Posted July 2, 2016 at 9:21 pm | Permalink

            That’s not a rant
            Come on Jerry

          • Jerry
            Posted July 3, 2016 at 11:46 am | Permalink

            @Edward2; It is a rant when people only blame their “pet-hate” media outlet for what ever they believe is wrong when so much of the media in the UK are doing much the same.

    • McBryde
      Posted July 1, 2016 at 2:36 pm | Permalink

      I think they (the remainers) probably consider they still have a chance to turn the outcome around to their advantage.
      It has to be more than sour grapes.
      I like the Boris cuckoo analogy… Perhaps it was true.

      JR for PM!

  13. Ex-expat Colin
    Posted July 1, 2016 at 7:08 am | Permalink

    Mercedes Benz in London sent me an email “thanks for buying the car” video yesterday. I have had it 6 months and they wanted me to be happy with it and to check that I am. They also wanted me to come back for another later….so don’t forget us. That’ll work as long as I don’t detect any penalties…no what I mean?

    I notice that I do not buy much wine from the EU…all of it is Oz and USA. We grow a lot of our own fruit and veg and we do not buy off season stuff.

    Other than a few friends in europe and some site seeing I’m not sure I need the EU…never have really. 75% of our contribution is on the CAP and its various teets (lunches).

  14. Hope
    Posted July 1, 2016 at 7:15 am | Permalink

    Totally agree JR.

    However, the Remain camp want EU light with May at the helm. Can you think of anything worse? Cameron had a pro EU cabinet which was not representative of the MPs nor the overwhelming public mood. He told us what we thought and wanted even though it was in stark contrast to what he said. Under May you can expect more of the same. She wants to curb free movement, not the same as stopping it. The worst record of any Home Secretary for immigration etc. with her record she should not be on the ballot paper.

    • a-tracy
      Posted July 1, 2016 at 10:35 am | Permalink

      You’ve only got to look at May’s backers Hope. If this just election of May goes through unchallenged by a proper Leave nominee our only hope is a leave MP can convince enough true Conservatives to leave with them into an SNP equivalent putting the UK first, the UKIP MEPS need new jobs as does Hannan.

    • Hope
      Posted July 1, 2016 at 3:48 pm | Permalink

      No curbing the deficit, not stopping free movement and now she says she will not change ECHR as there is no appetite in Parliament! So the Remaners will get EU light despite the public’s wishes to leave the EU and all that it entails!

      • a-tracy
        Posted July 2, 2016 at 7:31 am | Permalink

        We’re getting stitched up like a kipper.

        First the stall.

        Then try to add weight to the elections in Holland and France causing both Countries to question the validity of the EU, even if they choose to stay it will be scarily close. Our politicians will then hope we’d get a better deal.

        In the meantime they leave the UK to go to rat shit. The establishment wants May, soon the mud will fly up in Leadsoms face, she best have her answers ready, if she has done tax planning she is a wise woman that will want to look after all of our finances.

        If Gove really did stab Boris, I’d like to see Boris leading the UK business department with Leadsom as PM and help us to sell our services and products all over the world. Gove is finished – you can’t trust him now, he’s served himself.

  15. Roy Grainger
    Posted July 1, 2016 at 7:15 am | Permalink

    Yes Mr Carney’s antics seem very strange, deliberately weakening the pound even more by making his ususal doom-laden predictions. Does he know the referendum campaign is over ? It is risky to let the appalling Osborne stay as Chancellor for another couple of months, those two could cause trouble.

  16. Leslie Singleton
    Posted July 1, 2016 at 7:17 am | Permalink

    Read last night that it’s now “non-tariff barriers” that we are supposed to start worrying about. Are these (assuming any such exist worthy of the name) the same barriers that the entire rest of the world faces with no fuss at all? The EU wants above all else to be a single country. Well suppose they were already a single country which had barriers, just as one would expect, so what? They net export to us so we could easily enough set up our own barriers to good effect. Does Canada worry about USA barriers? Not even close. All the stuff about “access to the single market” is hyperbolic tripe. Just think: no contributions, so tons more of our own money to spend here, no political interference and only selected immigration, Sorry, net inward migration. Heaven. Gove looks and is a geek and a treacherous one at that, a pygmy compared with Boris. Heseltine continues just a bitter obsessive old man and bad loser.

  17. Lifelogic
    Posted July 1, 2016 at 7:21 am | Permalink

    Indeed.

    You ask:- Why try and talk confidence down? Well Carney, Osborne and others were trying so hard to talk Brexit down before the referendum that they now what to show they were right.

    The knifing of Boris by Gove, and the likely victory of the tedious, cowardly, elderly, remainer Teresa May is very depressing. She has little electoral appeal. She assured the nation that “we had control of our borders in the EU through Schengen”. So is clearly a blatant liar or a complete and utter fool.

    Who are you going support for leader JR. What is you reaction to the likely victory of remainer May?

    • A different Simon
      Posted July 1, 2016 at 7:02 pm | Permalink

      Little electoral appeal is understating it .

      She is a guaranteed election loser .

      She saw no problem with the EU arrest warrant either . Hardly a champion of individual liberty .

      I think she’s (words left out ed)and is a dangerous authoritarian crank – w0rse than Cable .

      Though thought of her in charge is terrifying .

    • getahead
      Posted July 1, 2016 at 8:16 pm | Permalink

      May has been dismal as Home Secretary.
      Gove was impressive as Education Secretary but says he does not want Article 50 before next year. Why? We want out now.
      Leadsom would appear to have the least number of strings attached. I’ll go for Andrea.

  18. Tedgo
    Posted July 1, 2016 at 7:23 am | Permalink

    It’s reported Mr Blair wants to take part in negotiations. He argues that the narrowness of the vote had left 48 per cent completely disenfranchised and alienated.

    Well I did a quick bit of research, the Labour victory in 2005 left 64.8% of voters disenfranchised, (that is 78.4% of the electorate).

    • Roy Grainger
      Posted July 1, 2016 at 9:36 am | Permalink

      Oh I think you’ll find that from next Wednesday Mr Blair will have other matters to deal with.

      • getahead
        Posted July 1, 2016 at 8:18 pm | Permalink

        Avoiding prison?

  19. agricola
    Posted July 1, 2016 at 7:24 am | Permalink

    While I share your confidence in thing financial gradually sorting themselves out. I find the scrabble for the Premiership fairly disgusting.

    The Et Tu Brute act of Gove will earn him no brownie points among conservative voters I fear. Nor do I have any belief in the May return from Damascus, it has all the qualities of a returning Jihadi. If this is what we get as a nation , having voted with conviction, I am totally unimpressed. May is now reported as being happy with the European Convention on Human Rights. The very thing she complained, that prevented her getting rid of numerous terrorists. She was obviously not trying very hard. We have had six years of being led by a person of little conviction, we need change.

  20. alan jutson
    Posted July 1, 2016 at 7:27 am | Permalink

    “….why talk the Country down…..”

    Indeed so perhaps some MP’s and ex Ministers should to lead by example, instead of still proffering gloom and doom.

    Heseltine in particular an absolute disgrace in his Tv interviews recently, what does he hope to gain, another referendum with ever more scare stories. ?
    If the media want to speak to an ex Minister then I suggest they call Norman Tebbit for his views.

    I see the contest for the next Prime Minister (leader of the Conservative Party) is beginning to hot up.

    Whoever wins, we should certainly not have a general election until we have finalised and completed our negotiations with the EU, as we cannot take the risk of anything stopping the decision which has just been made to leave.

  21. Bob
    Posted July 1, 2016 at 7:40 am | Permalink

    “Isn’t it time the UK authorities and leading companies either said nothing, or found something positive to say? Why try and talk confidence down…”

    Isn’t it time George Osborne & his friend Mark Carney did the decent thing, instead of throwing spanners in the works. They appear to be in denial.

  22. fedupsoutherner
    Posted July 1, 2016 at 7:44 am | Permalink

    Well said John. I am sick to death of the continual running down of this country by the BBC and many other media sites. Why do they find it so hard to be positive? Thank God we aren’t at war. It would be enough to drive you insane.

    They are trying to paint Gove as a traitor now. I suspect that the decision for Boris to stand down was a two way thing where events and the future were discussed and the outcome was that Gove was the best candidate. We really dont’ want May as she will choose a cabinet that will be in favour of some kind of EU membership and that is what the public didn’t vote for. Democracy is in danger of being extinguished yet again and the people won’t be listened to. We must have a cabinet made up chiefly of people who wanted to leave the EU. I fear all we have worked for will disappear and our chance of getting out will go forever. On QT last night I felt as though we were still fighting the referendum and not that we had won. I think we will see soon that we haven’t. We cannot allow that to happen.

    • Mitchel
      Posted July 1, 2016 at 9:24 am | Permalink

      A delicious taunt from President Putin yesterday – “We will see how their principles of democracy get realised in practice”

    • Jon Kitchin
      Posted July 2, 2016 at 7:06 am | Permalink

      Surely it is not the job of the BBC to either talk the country up or down. They should dispassionately report on the here and now and possible positive and negative consequences of political actions.

  23. Liz
    Posted July 1, 2016 at 7:48 am | Permalink

    EU punishment for those that do not do as the EU says will be familiar to the citizens of Greece and the 50% unemployed youth in the mediterranean countries. British media had been very careful indeed not to cover either of these topics coming up to the referendum in a vain attempt to shore up support for “remain”. The most depressing result of the referendum has been the anti democratic stance taken by so many “remainers” to the extent as you say to running down their own country.

  24. stred
    Posted July 1, 2016 at 7:51 am | Permalink

    Cuckoos cuckooing all over the place, including the Bank of England. This is the bloke they have chosen to lead the negotiations. He was helping Mrs May to run the Border Force while illegals were arriving in lorry and boatloads and being put in stretched limos on their way to hotels. The Home Affairs Committee sent him out of the class for bad behaviour.http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/12/top-civil-servant-kicked-out-of-parliament-committee-for-unsatis/

    • stred
      Posted July 1, 2016 at 11:07 am | Permalink

      I have been told by a friend with a relation in the Ministry of Defence that civil servants were all emailed personally telling them to vote to stay in the EU. They must be keen on an EU army. Impartiality and professionalism have disappeared. A fish rots from the head.

  25. Richard1
    Posted July 1, 2016 at 7:55 am | Permalink

    Why is the Governor of the BoE talking about another cut in interest rates? I would have thought a much better boost to confidence would be tax reform & simplification and targeted tax cuts and some useful investment such as Heathrow expansion (and perhaps cancel useless investment such as HS2).

    • StevenL
      Posted July 1, 2016 at 1:36 pm | Permalink

      Perhaps it is too good an opportunity to remove more gilts from the market – ease the quantity of them – and make way for the issuing of another trillion or two.

      • Richard1
        Posted July 1, 2016 at 5:16 pm | Permalink

        It would make sense to do that and extend the duration of the UKs debt at low cost.

        • StevenL
          Posted July 1, 2016 at 8:59 pm | Permalink

          Well as I don’t think it makes sense to buy a 20 year bond yielding 1.5%, I guess I’d have to agree it does make sense to sell them!

  26. Denis Cooper
    Posted July 1, 2016 at 7:57 am | Permalink

    Perhaps one reason that some people are now less worried than before is the increasing conviction that we can vote to leave the EU as many times as we like but we will never actually leave because our politicians will always find excuses to ignore the votes?

    I don’t know whether this is a problem with our system which predates our involvement with the EEC/EC/EU/USE project, or it is a result of that involvement, but I do know that those Leavers who unreasonably reject the use of the agreed Article 50 TEU as the route out of the EU are in fact helping to make sure that we will never leave.

  27. Bert Young
    Posted July 1, 2016 at 7:58 am | Permalink

    Making negative comments helps no-one ; be positive and emphasising all the things we are good at and can be trusted for to deliver is the right way to go .

    Boris backing out of the leadership for the Conservative Party is ,probably , a good thing ; his undoubted skills can be available in a number of ways through a Cabinet appointment ; if he led the negotiations he might have incited more difficulty from the EU. Theresa May is a polished performer and because she kept a low profile during the campaign she has the best chance of pulling the ranks together . Interesting times ahead .

  28. JimS
    Posted July 1, 2016 at 7:59 am | Permalink

    We are seeing a repeat of what happened after the general election, the BBC et al are navel gazing trying to work out how ‘we’ produced the wrong result.

    Is the governor of the BoE mad? If enough people should “Panic!” then there will be panic, even if there is no reason. It reminds me of Vince Cable bringing Northern Rock down; instead of expressing his concerns in the right places he went public and so generated an avoidable crash, but he got his ‘prophesy’ proved didn’t he?

  29. Thames Trader
    Posted July 1, 2016 at 8:03 am | Permalink

    Excellent set of words. Realistic and reassuring.

    The big EU countries have far more to lose by punishing Britain than we have thanks to our variable exchange rate.
    What could be worse for the German car industry than a nice trade deal with Japan to reduce import tariffs and the price of their cars in this country ?

    And no-one has mentioned that if the EU imposed tariffs on our goods, we would impose reciprocal tariffs (just another tax) and the UK Government would make a pile of money out of those tariffs.

    • Sean O'Hare
      Posted July 1, 2016 at 11:30 am | Permalink

      It doesn’t quite work that way TT! The importer pays the tariff and as we import far more from the EU than we export to them we would end up the loser.

      Also if we retaliate and impose tariffs on them then according to WTO rules we would have to impose identical tariffs on imported goods from non-EU countries. The EU can get away with imposing tariffs on non-EU countries because it is a Regional Trade Area and not subject to the same WTO rule.

      • Denis Cooper
        Posted July 2, 2016 at 7:57 am | Permalink

        The importer of goods into the UK pays the UK tariff to the UK government; so the inhabitants of the UK lose as consumers but gain as taxpayers. At present importers into the UK from outside of the EU already pay the EU common external tariff, but that goes to the EU after the UK government deducts a fee to cover the costs of collection.

  30. wab
    Posted July 1, 2016 at 8:11 am | Permalink

    Shorter Mr Redwood: Crisis? What Crisis?

  31. Iain Moore
    Posted July 1, 2016 at 8:12 am | Permalink

    I do find it incredible that it can be said the British need to be punished for voting to leave the EU to stop contagion and no one is appalled. It seems the EU project hasn’t moved much further on from the USSR project , where punishments have to be handed out to anybody who dares challenge the orthodoxy. Their very authoritarian response makes our vote to leave the EU the correct decision.

    PS That the likes of the BBC can happily report this without hardly commenting about it, makes clear where their politics lie.

  32. Denis Cooper
    Posted July 1, 2016 at 8:15 am | Permalink

    There’s a very good letter in the Telegraph today demolishing the idea that Sturgeon has some kind of veto over the UK leaving the EU:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2016/06/30/letters-boris-johnson-the-tories-most-charismatic-candidate-is-a/

    “Scottish Brexit veto

    SIR – Was Sir David Edward QC employing the “make it up as you go along” skills deployed by the Court of Justice of the European Union when he advised the Lords’ European Union Committee that Westminster needed the consent of the Scottish Parliament to withdraw from the EU (Letters, June 30)?

    Section 29 of the Scotland Act makes it clear that it is concerned solely with the legislative competence of the Scottish Parliament. The Westminster Parliament can amend it at will, the only constraint being the Sewel Convention which, by definition, is not legally binding. Section 29 could even be left alone: if the Scottish people really are so enamoured of the EU, then perhaps they would like to carry on being bound to legislate in accordance with its laws.

    David Radlett
    Gillingham, Kent”

    And is it not long overdue for some UK minister to point out to Sturgeon that in 2014 the Scots were asked whether they wanted Scotland to revert to being a sovereign state as it was before 1707, and they declined that opportunity, and therefore she not now behave as though she is the head of a government of a sovereign Scotland when she is in reality just the head of a devolved administration with a similar constitutional status to Kent County Council, one level below the supreme UK level?

    For example by abusing her public position and public funds for a mission across the EU to try to drum up support for Scotland to stay in the EU when the rest of the UK leaves, in brazen contravention of Schedule 5 of the Scotland Act 1998:

    http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/schedule/5

    “International relations, including relations with territories outside the United Kingdom, the European Union (and their institutions) and other international organisations, regulation of international trade, and international development assistance and co-operation are reserved matters.”

    • a-tracy
      Posted July 2, 2016 at 7:37 am | Permalink

      She’s one of them Denis, just there to agitate for Brexit lite.

      I was in Scotland several times for their Independence vote and they were told repeatedly the Uk was holding this vote to leave the EU and could take the whole Country out of the EU, they can’t claim ignorance now, it was one of their main arguments. If you remember they were told then the EU didn’t want them as an independent Scotland!

  33. Lifelogic
    Posted July 1, 2016 at 8:16 am | Permalink

    What a dire list of second rate, wrong on everything, remain backers Theresa May has: Soubry, Rudd, Spelman, Hammond, Miller, Hunt, Greaves, Soames, Gummer. – how hugely depressing. What a dire choice Tory members now look likely to get probably Gove and May. Gove being slightly preferable but neither has much appeal at the ballet box.

    The less we see of the dire list of remainders above the better.

    It is reported that Osborne, our patently economically illiterate chancellor, was behind the knifing of Boris by Gove. This would certainly put me off Gove even more. What on earth is going on JR? Do the Tories want to win elections, it seems not.

    • stred
      Posted July 1, 2016 at 10:50 am | Permalink

      Half the Conservative MPs are Europhiles and half have a government appointment or are in the cabinet. They wish to keep their jobs and to control and neutralise the process of Brexit. Mrs May-Remain is their agent. Crabb is a decoy. The main danger is out of the way now that Gove has co-operated and wielded the knife. There are two others who are genuine Brexiteers who will draw votes. To keep the Party together the Remain stooge will be selected and Gove will draw support from the Europhile MPs, eliminating candidates that would be popular with Leaver voters. May will be PM and the Europhiles will keep their jobs.

      The best hope is that Conservative Party members will support Mrs Leadsom or Dr Fox and the polls will show the popularity of Mrs Leadsom after her very good performance. When the GE comes and the extent of the betrayal becomes clear the conservative and other voters who defied the Fear campaign will not vote for May, especially as there will be a surge in EU migration in order to get under the drawbridge as she drags the process out. Leadsom as PM and a quick exit would be a winner.

      • a-tracy
        Posted July 2, 2016 at 7:39 am | Permalink

        Agree with you stred.

  34. Denis Cooper
    Posted July 1, 2016 at 8:29 am | Permalink

    https://euobserver.com/stakeholders/134144

    “Commenting on the meeting, Van Baalen said: “It feels unreal that we are now talking of the EU without Great Britain, but you never know what can happen given that many Brits are now asking for a time to rethink. We cannot rethink forever, but we have to give some time to the Brits to see what develops.””

    Appallingly leaders of the Leave campaign actually agree with this, give the bad losers on the Remain side the maximum opportunity to neutralise the referendum result.

    • A different Simon
      Posted July 1, 2016 at 10:38 am | Permalink

      I don’t think many members of the public considered Boris to be a leader of the Leave campaign .

      He’s hardly been vociferous about it over the years .

      Just an opportunist .

      Hannan has some blotches on his record too .

      The old maxim stands – “Never trust a Tory” .

      The strength of the Leave campaign is that it is grass roots bottom up in nature .

      At it’s core are people from all classes who think for themselves , make up their own minds and do not look to leaders (the so called experts) for guidance .

    • turbo terrier
      Posted July 1, 2016 at 11:38 am | Permalink

      Denis Cooper.

      If the leave had lost, not for one nano second would the referendum re-run have been considered by the remainers.

      • Denis Cooper
        Posted July 1, 2016 at 6:01 pm | Permalink

        Correct, then it would have been “The people have spoken”.

  35. DaveK
    Posted July 1, 2016 at 8:33 am | Permalink

    John, I expect that the reason for the recovery is that they are now aware that the “fix is in”. The conservative party will be led by a remain PM backed by Mr Osborne who will remain in place and even if we do actually leave we will be signed up to a strangulation deal even worse than the EUphile Norwegian politicians signed their country up to.

  36. English Pensioner
    Posted July 1, 2016 at 8:43 am | Permalink

    I hope that whoever is PM will terminate Carney’s contract as soon as possible. The financial word hasn’t collapsed following the referendum, in fact we seem to be doing OK. Even so, he’s trying to talk things down and cause alarm.
    Perhaps he’s just a robot following Cameron’s instructions and needs reprogramming!

    • Iain Moore
      Posted July 1, 2016 at 11:55 am | Permalink

      I thought Carney’s intervention yesterday was pretty disgraceful. The direction of an economy can be associated with sentiment, for him to come out days after Brexit and say ‘look look look it is all going pear shaped’ is not what we should expect from a Central Banker, if he can’t give the economy a feeling of confidence, then he should shut up, for what it appears he is doing is talking down the economy to justify his dire pre-Brexit predictions.

  37. Know-dice
    Posted July 1, 2016 at 8:45 am | Permalink

    Are the EU laying a “tank trap” for us?

    We currently have a trade agreement in place with the EU and therefore its member countries.

    If we leave the EU without anything at all in place, then it is suggested that we effectively start with a “clean sheet”.

    I know by hanging on that there is a feeling that Brexit will never happen. But surely good negotiating tactics (from where we are now) is to make the EU [and its member countries] believe that they will be the ones to stand to lose out most if the current stalemate continues.

    Its “first to blink”, loses…

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted July 1, 2016 at 9:23 am | Permalink

      For those who wish to leave the EU there is nothing to be gained and everything to lose from delay in putting in the Article 50 notice. It may well be true that the UK government is not properly prepared for the negotiations which would follow, but nor are the EU institutions and the governments of the other EU member states. It would not be a case of “We’ve got your notice and we will start the negotiations next week”, firstly they will be no more prepared than we are and secondly they cannot dictate that the UK representatives must turn up for negotiations next week. All that delay does is provide greater opportunities for the bad losers to organise themselves and work to neutralise the referendum result.

  38. Denis Cooper
    Posted July 1, 2016 at 9:07 am | Permalink

    I’m looking at the five candidates for the Tory leadership and shockingly it seems that not one of them plans to keep the promise that Cameron repeatedly made before June 23rd but then abandoned after the poll, that if the vote was to leave he would immediately trigger Article 50 TEU and start the process of withdrawal from the EU.

    There’s even this craziness from Gove yesterday:

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-gove-article-idUKKCN0ZG2IL

    “UK must negotiate Brexit before Article 50 – Conservative Gove says”

    “Britain should negotiate the preliminary terms of its exit from the European Union before triggering the formal Article 50 exit process, said Conservative lawmaker Michael Gove, who earlier on Thursday launched a bid to succeed Prime Minister David Cameron.

    “I believe that after we’ve had an opportunity to negotiate and to discuss with our European partners in preliminary terms the decision that the British people have reached then in due course Article 50 needs to be triggered,” he told the BBC.”

    That’s despite various EU luminaries having already made it perfectly clear that there will be no negotiations until the notification that we are leaving has gone in, and with the EU Trade Commissioner now going even further than that with her own interpretation of how Article 50 TEU would work:

    https://euobserver.com/tickers/134150

    “Trade commissioner: No trade talks until Brexit”

    “The EU trade commissioner, Cecilia Malmstrom, has said the UK cannot begin negotiating terms for doing business with the union until after it has left. “First you exit then you negotiate,” she told the BBC. After the Brexit process, the UK would become a “third country” under EU law. Trade would be carried out based on WTO rules, meaning tariffs, until a new deal was complete.”

    So we have Gove saying there should be negotiations before we formally notify the EU that we are leaving, while most of the EU leaders say there will be no negotiations until after we have formally notified the EU that we are leaving, while Malmstrom says even then there will be no negotiations about trade until after we have actually left.

  39. petermartin2001
    Posted July 1, 2016 at 9:43 am | Permalink

    “They need to understand that the move down in sterling is a monetary stimulus. it means the UK is cheaper for foreign investors, tourists and buyers of our goods. ”

    Yes. They also need to understand that an elevated level of Sterling creates more debt in the economy.

    If the UK as a whole is importing more than it exports, then someone in the UK has to fund that deficit by borrowing. That either has to be Government or the Private Sector.

    So if George Osborne want to make good his promise of reducing public debt without simply creating even higher levels of private debt he should welcome the recent fall in the pound.

    I know it will be hard for those wishing to purchase imported goods or go on foreign holidays but that’s the reality of the situation. Economics is like that. We can’t have everything. We have to make choices.

    • Edward2
      Posted July 1, 2016 at 4:56 pm | Permalink

      I agree.
      In the short term more expensive imports can be a negative but soon consumers look to home made or home grown products and services if they are cheaper.
      It might stimulate our manufacturing sector, creating more employment.
      And with agriculture and fishing released from EU control further improvements of home industry can be expected.

  40. fedupsoutherner
    Posted July 1, 2016 at 9:49 am | Permalink

    God, reading this blog and reading all the comments is so depressing and makes me even more worried about the future. They just echo what I am feeling and I just want to see something positive. I almost dread opening up your site John. Let’s hope things get better but someone needs to get a move on.

  41. CHRISTOPHER HOUSTON
    Posted July 1, 2016 at 10:42 am | Permalink

    The Tory Party has not accepted the Referendum result.
    The media is deliberately creating economic chaos helping to challenge the result.
    The Labour Party is struggling to allow 172 careerists rule the roost in preference to the 350,000 Labour Party members.
    Dark times indeed.
    MPs should enjoy their time in Parliament .
    They are talking only to themselves.

  42. ian
    Posted July 1, 2016 at 11:05 am | Permalink

    You have been black balled while in the club, and it impossible to withdraw from the club because your own club committee is against withdrawing from the club but the membership of your club has voted withdraw from the club but the man at the head of the committee who wanted the vote to withdraw or stay has resigned from the committee saying it to much work for him and wants to go back to just being member of the club, now the committee is trying to pick a new person to head the committee to withdraw from the other club but as the committee doze not want to withdraw from the club the membership is being told all sorts of stories by committee members and so the membership of the club are thinking now that it will not end well and the membership has no say in what happens next.

    The committee is made up of 8 parties and one independent, 7 parties are for staying in and one is for coming out, the party for coming out has one member on the committee but the other parties membership of the committee are spilt, 450 for in 148 for out.

    So what can be done, send in article 50 which is the rules of the other club which takes two year but party in charge of the committee is not sure about that and what the out come would be and also what the rules are if any.
    Committee have their own vote which will be to stay in and over rule the membership vote.
    Wait to the next membership vote in 3 years 10 months time and the parties put what they want to do in their manifestos and have another vote.
    Lead party do all the paper work and then send article 50 and wait two years to see what happens.
    Do all the paperwork break all of the other clubs rules and just come out.
    Stop sending membership fee withdraw from club and do the paperwork as you go.
    Lots of ways to do it, I wonder which one they will chose.

  43. Glenn Vaughan
    Posted July 1, 2016 at 11:33 am | Permalink

    To listen to Lord Heseltine and Ken Clarke talk about treachery is nauseating. Does the name “Margaret Thatcher” mean anything to them?

    Those two arch traitors are in no position to discuss the moral conduct of anyone and have both left an indelible stain on British public life.

  44. Brummiephil
    Posted July 1, 2016 at 11:39 am | Permalink

    ‘Isn’t it time the UK authorities and leading companies either said nothing, or found something positive to say? Why try and talk confidence down, when in the market many people are still willing to buy and sell, and when most of the UK the financial markets are now performing well?’

    Absolutely. And we need to hold our nerve too (although I can appreciate that’s difficult for people concerned about their jobs etc.) It does strike me, though, that we are being softened up for an awful Norway style compromise. And what is particularly concerning is the stalling over Article 50 being enacted. First it was ‘immediately after the referendum’, then it was ‘once the new PM is in office’ and now it’s ‘the end of the year’. People will be talking about ‘economic tests needing to be met yet, given the fragile nature of the economy’ (recession, unconnected to the referendum, may well have been in the post anyway…) Every day that passes without Article 50 being passed is another day further away from the kind of break with the EU that Leave campaigned for, and I believe the country voted for.

  45. turbo terrier
    Posted July 1, 2016 at 12:00 pm | Permalink

    Don’t the politicians understand that if they renagade on the result of the referendum there are going to be 1000s of unhappy bunnies and with all the goings on the whole political structure will be never be seen as honourable, trustworthy and credible ever again.

    That is if it had ever been held in such high esteem in the first place?

  46. ian wragg
    Posted July 1, 2016 at 12:06 pm | Permalink

    O/T I see that Austrian Presidential election has been annulled and another one is to be held.
    It appears to be Tower Hamlets Vienna style. Hofer is also in favour of a referendum on EU membership.
    We have allies.

    • Richard1
      Posted July 1, 2016 at 5:23 pm | Permalink

      Not an attractive one

  47. ChrisS
    Posted July 1, 2016 at 12:19 pm | Permalink

    Fascinating development in Austria today :

    The Presidential election, lost by Norbert Hofer, the Right Wing anti-EU candidate by just 30,000 votes, is to be re-run. This will cause Junckers and Co many sleepless nights over the next couple of months.

    If Hofer can win the re-run in the Autumn, we will be sure to see a Referendum in Austria in the next two years. If he wins, the very fact that one will be held will be very destabilising to the Eurozone and will make other countries such as Netherlands, Denmark, the Czech Republic and France much more likely to follow suit.

    I have said here before, that I believe that events in the EU will move further in our direction over the next couple of years. This development may well shorten that timescale significantly, all to our advantage.

  48. Hamsterwheel
    Posted July 1, 2016 at 12:38 pm | Permalink

    Had Carney been up-front about finding this money down the back of the sofa even 2 weeks’ ago, he might just have swung it for Remain. Shot himself in the foot, maybe?

  49. Bob
    Posted July 1, 2016 at 12:50 pm | Permalink

    @Mr Redwood
    With two thirds of Tory MPs being pro EU, it appears that a Brexit leader will not make it onto the final ballot paper. So is that how they intend to scupper the democratic Will of the people?

  50. Local Lad
    Posted July 1, 2016 at 1:01 pm | Permalink

    JR. You ask, why try to talk confidence down? The answer is that many Remainers cannot accept that they got it wrong and are determined that Brexit will fail. I am fearful that things might be going their way as the majority of MPs are Remainers and want to get one of their kind as Prime Minister.

  51. ian
    Posted July 1, 2016 at 1:12 pm | Permalink

    Wet & mad abandons surplus targets, ramps up money to the banks by 250 billion and send shares skyrocketing and bond rates down which is killing pension funds for workers.
    QE will be coming and cuts in interest rates to 0% which will send the pound down and property prices right up with shares as inflation takes hold, what exit neg interest,
    rates, bonds and inflation as high as last time 5% with no wages increases apart from what has already been set out.

    Cuts to public service will increases with tax increases, more homeless people and lot more people coming to the country because that is the only economic plan they have had for the last 12 years.
    You have voted the wrong way so now you are in for it.
    Is there any need for this, in a word no, as usual you will be reading about the rich getting richer as they roll out more food banks and can forget about a house building plan for homes for people, wet & mad is going to show you who is boss.

    Media have picked the home office minster as leader who been working on getting rid of law on human rights from Europe which M Gove has been working on but now says she want to keep the European convention of human rights so people cannot be remove from the country and EU said that they want all its laws remove after exit, no cheery picking.

    I think my two voting feet are starting to move, as I have told you all a long what wet & mad will do and never any intention of paying off the debt because the big boys can only earn big money by ramping up the debt and sharing your money out between themselves with high assets prices while you receive the cuts and inflation.

    • Edward2
      Posted July 1, 2016 at 5:01 pm | Permalink

      Strange analysis.
      What you have described is a loosening of “austerity” which Labour have constantly called for.
      Yet here you conclude it will make matters worse.
      I’m intrigued what you want the Government to do.
      Is it more or less State spending?

  52. Lindsay McDougall
    Posted July 1, 2016 at 3:58 pm | Permalink

    George Osborne and Governor Carney are responsible for grossly irresponsible comments on fiscal and monetary policy respectively. There is no reason at all to reduce the pace of deficit reduction and the UK economy needs more easy money like it needs a hole in the head. Both of these gentlemen are promising to address a problem that isn’t there. I hope that the new PM sacks the pair of them.

  53. BOF
    Posted July 1, 2016 at 4:00 pm | Permalink

    I am finding the leadership contest utterly depressing with the likelihood of a remainder PM being installed.
    I can only hope that all us foot soldiers who worked so hard to get a Brexit vote will work with renewed vigour to remove those MP’s that are so hell bent on betrayal.

  54. turboterrier
    Posted July 1, 2016 at 4:15 pm | Permalink

    As everything is controlled by the financial markets for the life of me I cannot understand how with Italy’s request for a banking bail out turned down how nobody on either side does not highlight the real situation that if it expands will result on more financial burdens being placed on the EU members. If the UK is still not officially out how can the electorate
    be expected to understand should financial help be requested from us?

    When are the majority of politicians actually going to wake up and understand how very fragile the EU actually is?

  55. Chris S
    Posted July 1, 2016 at 4:20 pm | Permalink

    Reproduced below direct from the BBC Complaints website is their response to numerous complaints about the interview on Newsnight with Crispin Blunt.

    Clearly the BBC were not reviewing the same interview as viewers !
    I’ve never seen such a hectoring and bullying session on any supposedly factual program. Davies was a disgrace, allowing his personal hatred of the result of the referendum to influence his behaviour on screen.

    Davies is a mere pygmie compared with a towering figure like Paxman.

    Of course, The BBC will never admit to any incident of bias, will they ?

    Newsnight, BBC Two, 29 June 2016
    BBC Blocks

    Complaint

    We received complaints from viewers who felt presenter Evan Davis challenged Crispin Blunt MP too much during an interview on the EU referendum result and Conservative Party leadership campaign.

    Response from Newsnight

    Frequently, interviewers get criticised for not being tough enough on interviewees who try to duck questions or filibuster. It’s certainly fair to say Evan’s exasperation came through in this interview, but we believe that on balance it was a perfectly fair encounter in which Mr Blunt was given plenty of opportunity to make his points and answer Evan’s questions. We do recognise, though, that what is a “tough accountability” interview for some, can come across differently for others and we will certainly bear our viewers’ concerns in mind as we plan future interviews.

  56. Rhys Jaggar
    Posted July 1, 2016 at 4:25 pm | Permalink

    I hope that if there is one lesson that the UK public derives from this Brexit Referendum period, it is that the MSM neither represents them, nor has their deepest instincts and desires at heart, let alone the interests of quite a lot of them.

    One great advantage of having lived almost everywhere outside London the past 40 odd years is that you simply don’t live in the London bubble. I’ve seen how cities regenerate in post industrial times (notably Glasgow in the period 1986 – 93 and Manchester in the period 1998 – 2006) in real time: it’s something that is best aligned to the motto ‘slow and steady wins the race’. I’ve seen how the UK regions need sufficiently strong financial investment firepower not to have all their hopes and dreams controlled by London-based investors. The opportunities for all those regions to find global partners should increase significantly with Brexit. I’ve met people world class at innovation in science and technology based outside the Golden Triangle, so have a healthy skepticism for thinking that we are uniquely dependent on London and Oxbridge for a sexy 21st century economy. Finally, I”ve seen how boutique firms based in the regions can provide higher quality services to their clients than their London competitors, despite charging £500 a day less for their services (which suggests price modifications in both directions was appropriate…..)

    The MSM is London-centric, housed with career wordsmiths and lamentably underserved with those who have actually worked at the coal face for the past 20 years.

    It is my fervent hope that the digital era we are now in will allow discerning British people to identify more reliable indicators of the ‘state of the nation’ than are usually presented by the BBC, the febrile stables of Murdoch and Barclay etc etc.

  57. APL
    Posted July 1, 2016 at 7:06 pm | Permalink

    JR: “Confidence returns”

    Not so much confidence returns, rather hysteria subsides.

    Reply On the contrary. Watch the markets rather than the gloomy and wrong commentators

    • APL
      Posted July 2, 2016 at 9:27 am | Permalink

      JR: “Watch the markets rather than the gloomy and wrong commentators ”

      The market turmoil was a result of bankers losing their bets on BREMAIN. They had to sell everything and pay their obligations.

      The media ( Yes, Jerry, including the BBC ) whipped that event, the market falling due to selling, into It’s the end of the world, while not one politician was in a position to do anything, not least because the BREXIT vote was like the tide going out, revealing how few British politicians had any bathing trunks.

      Now the water level is back to something approaching normal, the politicians need to be careful not to fall back into their old ways.

      • Jerry
        Posted July 3, 2016 at 6:29 am | Permalink

        @APL; Oh right, so the news media should not report the, err, news…

  58. Martin
    Posted July 1, 2016 at 7:40 pm | Permalink

    Can you explain if more trade is to be done with the rest of the world why the Heathrow Airport third runway is on hold yet again?

    If we want a growing economy then the self imposed “planning system” needs to be dumped.

    • Lindsay McDougall
      Posted July 2, 2016 at 12:12 am | Permalink

      Because Gatwick is deliverable and Heathrow isn’t.

      • Jerry
        Posted July 3, 2016 at 6:50 am | Permalink

        @Lindsay McDougall; Any project is deliverable if there is a will and the NIMBYs are ignored.

        The problem with Gatwick is that whilst it is easier to physically accommodate a new runway it is not a cheap option, once non airport infrastructure to cope with the extra capacity is considered (capacity that Heathrow already has or is already under construction and budgeted for).

        If Gatwick is chosen for expansion it will mean much more than a new runway, so whilst the runway its self might be the cheaper, easier, option the whole the project will be far more expensive and far more disruptive once rail and road improvements are taken into account – if indeed extra capacity can be found without having to build a completely new road and rail links into and around London.

  • About John Redwood


    John Redwood won a free place at Kent College, Canterbury, and graduated from Magdalen College Oxford. He is a Distinguished fellow of All Souls, Oxford. A businessman by background, he has set up an investment management business, was both executive and non executive chairman of a quoted industrial PLC, and chaired a manufacturing company with factories in Birmingham, Chicago, India and China. He is the MP for Wokingham, first elected in 1987.

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