FTSE 250 rises

When I pointed out that the large company index the FTSE 100 which people use had gone up sharply post the referendum, the Bank of England and the doom mongers on this site said we needed now to look at the FTSE 250 index of smaller companies with a large UK focus.

So I hope they now recognise that this index too is doing better. Today it is at 16 333, well above the February low of 15 178 recorded before the referendum when the City anticipated a Remain vote, and above the August 2015 low of 16 214.

The FTSE 250 is now at the level it reached in the middle of June pre the vote, following its recovery from the February global sell off which brought down all advanced country stock markets.
The doom mongers are finding it is quite difficult talking some markets down.

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119 Comments

  1. Antisthenes
    Posted July 11, 2016 at 9:46 am | Permalink

    It was predictable that markets would be jittery post referendum vote but as the sky has not fallen in as predicted by George Osborne and the like naturally the markets have calmed. The dip in the pound is worrying but not being helped by Carny. However without unhelpful remarks and non market actions that to will reach it’s optimal level.

    More worrying is the level of defaults on loans and the liquidity problems that it is causing for banks and lenders particularly in the USA and Italy. Nothing to do with Brexit more likely to do with QE, Obama, Yellan and the euro. Indicating another recession is possibly on the way which perversely reducing interest rates may be one part of the defence against it happening.

    • StevenL
      Posted July 11, 2016 at 11:25 am | Permalink

      I wonder how much the commodities / energy sector recession is biting when it comes to defaults? The roads seem empty in Aberdeen compared to three years ago.

    • acorn
      Posted July 11, 2016 at 4:09 pm | Permalink

      Hot QE money looking for higher yields in the Sterling denominated assets “surprise summer sale”. 10 to 14% off while the currency lasts. (Terms and Conditions apply).

      The question is, who will be the next Chancellor; and, will he be another neo-liberal monetarist group-thinker???

      • rose
        Posted July 11, 2016 at 8:10 pm | Permalink

        Well, every cloud has a silver lining. At least we will now get a different Home Secretary. It won’t be Merlyn Reece but it must be better than the present beneficiary of positive discrimination..

  2. ian wragg
    Posted July 11, 2016 at 9:54 am | Permalink

    You’re wasting your time John. There is so much establishment effort being expended on trying to get Mrs. May elected that they are not interested in good news.
    This morning a group of lawyers were telling all and sundry that the referendum g=can be ignored as it was advisory.
    The same could be said for devolution or the 1975 referendum.
    If you want to destroy the Tory party, the quickest way is too ignore the voters.

    • ML
      Posted July 12, 2016 at 10:59 am | Permalink

      I guess the same could be said of a general election too as the outgoing PM “advises” the Queen on who to appoint as successor based on the result.

      The government has given little direction over the past week but we seem to be doing OK. Perhaps a period with one of the corgis in No 10 would be a worthwhile experiment; likely to be better house-trained than Boris at least.

  3. Paul
    Posted July 11, 2016 at 9:58 am | Permalink

    I’m slightly disappointed. I thought the indices would do far worse as stupid people panicked and I would have the chance to pick up some good shares cheap. Shares are way overpriced anyway at the moment.

    You get the impression that the BBC (especially) and many others actually *want* economic armageddon. But then people do get desperate when obsessive worldviews are challenged

    • hefner
      Posted July 12, 2016 at 2:14 pm | Permalink

      11 July, 9:58, “the chance to pick up some good shares cheap”: well far too late, gov.

      Wait for the “economic Armageddon” and move quick!

  4. forthurst
    Posted July 11, 2016 at 10:07 am | Permalink

    Teresa May is proposing a crackdown on City fatcats; can we assume that she will continue shamelessly to steel Andrea Leadsom’s policies throughout her campaign, bearing in mind she hasn’t any of her own? How about running the Home Office and protecting our borders properly for a change; that would be a good start.

    • hefner
      Posted July 12, 2016 at 2:21 pm | Permalink

      “steal Andrea Leadsom’s policies”, which in fact had been either Ed Milliband’s or other Labour people’s.

      Leadsom was rather a weak candidate, and it shows how poorly thought was the support of various Conservative Brexiteers, including JR’s.
      Could it be that we have once more been duped by this lot?

  5. Mike Wilson
    Posted July 11, 2016 at 10:23 am | Permalink

    How can one reduce interest rates at the moment?

    With bank base rate at 0.5% and many lenders charging 3.99% interest on mortgages (and much higher on other loans) and paying peanuts on savings – are banks, at the moment, making an absolute fortune?

    Mr. Redwood – I know you are doing your best to battle the daily drip-feed of hysteria and doom in some elements of the media – do you have access to any (obviously, early) figures on how consumer spending and tax revenues are doing?

    There are many in the Remain camp who are determined to talk the economy down and into recession – so that their dependency culture is vindicated and they can boast they were right.

  6. Dioclese
    Posted July 11, 2016 at 10:29 am | Permalink

    I live on modest investments as I have no company pension to fall back on being self employed for most of my working life.

    I valued my portfolio on 30/5 and again on 25/6 after the Brexit vote. I’d lost £6,735 on paper. I then valued it again last Friday. Guess what? I’m £4,601 better off than I was at the end of May.

    So since Brexit, my portfolio has increased by £10,336.

    So my question to Messrs Osborne and Carney is : “Where’s this economic meltdown you promised us if we voted to leave?”

    And off topic I know – but Project Smear continues on Leadsom I see. The Times still refuses to publish the full transcript of that interview as demanded by AL and, as a father myself, I see no problem with pointing out that having children focuses your mind on their future. You can only take her remarks as a swipe at May if you take it out of context as the Times etc have done. God save us from biased editors and spin doctors…

    She needs to tough it out and let this be seen as the smear tactics it is.

  7. ian
    Posted July 11, 2016 at 10:29 am | Permalink

    Long live central banks, make hay while the sun shines, just playing past the parcel on the titanic.

  8. Roy Grainger
    Posted July 11, 2016 at 11:12 am | Permalink

    Probably the FTSE is rising today because there’s the coronation of a Reaminer as PM and now they know we’ll never leave the EU when the second referendum comes. Looks like you won the war and lost the peace John – all Gove’s fault.

    • brian
      Posted July 11, 2016 at 11:01 pm | Permalink

      What justification do you have for saying we will never leave the EU? As has been said you cannot reason with extremists and misanthropes.

      • Denis Cooper
        Posted July 12, 2016 at 10:40 am | Permalink

        Historical justification, observation of what happens when a population votes against the wishes of the EU establishment.

  9. JJE
    Posted July 11, 2016 at 11:13 am | Permalink

    My dentist in Budapest now costs me 38.5% of the UK cost instead of 35%. And that’s for an eminent Professor, not one of the tourist dental factories.
    I’m still paying the cost for my incompetent NHS dentistry when younger.

  10. ian
    Posted July 11, 2016 at 11:13 am | Permalink

    Just keep printing to get inflation at any price, no stopping them now, the little people better look out because you are going to get crushed.
    loving it hear, zero interest rates, neg bonds, assets prices threw the roof, to the moon, no make that Pluto.
    BOJ 10 trillion yen UK 250 billion and ECB 150 bank bail out plus 1 trillion on going plan.

  11. ian
    Posted July 11, 2016 at 11:15 am | Permalink

    I forgot china, aus, and who ever else want to have a go.

  12. ian
    Posted July 11, 2016 at 11:25 am | Permalink

    dollar, stocks, precious metals, and house prices all up at the same time, don’t stop me now I’m going to have good time, many thanks to all the central bankers and banker, politician and media.

    • Edward2
      Posted July 11, 2016 at 9:19 pm | Permalink

      Do you walk around with a sandwich board saying the end of the world is nigh ?
      Cheer up Ian
      It might never happen

      • Denis Cooper
        Posted July 12, 2016 at 10:38 am | Permalink

        You can now get arrested for doing that.

  13. Antisthenes
    Posted July 11, 2016 at 11:38 am | Permalink

    I am sad Andrea is standing down. It appears only those with very thick skins should apply for office as the poachers and brigands with their poisonous arrow will be out to get you. Hopefully she will be in the cabinet as she will be a considerable asset for Theresa and the country. So will Gove(chief Brexit negotiator) and you of course (although I am not sure you would be in favour with likes of Theresa continuity David Cameron). To keep us laughing so should Boris(helps with the feel good factor). George is probably back in with a shout(unfortunately).

    I hope Theresa is not totally David Cameron and reneges on “Brexit means Brexit”. Her time at the Home office was not particularly successful I hope as PM she does better. I think though she is better at ensuring that the ship of state avoids criticism but not very good at using it to benefit those who sail in it. Like Cameron it will be up to her ministers to do any good works. So the choice of who they are is very important. No place men/women all chosen on merit please.

  14. Matt
    Posted July 11, 2016 at 11:54 am | Permalink

    I must say that I’m shocked and appalled that Leadsom has now withdrawn. If she did not wish to stand against May in a vote of the party she should not have prevented Gove from doing so.
    This is profoundly unsatisfactory to say the least.

    • Richard1
      Posted July 11, 2016 at 11:05 pm | Permalink

      Agreed, she was not a suitable candidate at all, Michael Gove would have been much more credible. But let’s move on.

  15. Anthony Makara
    Posted July 11, 2016 at 12:01 pm | Permalink

    The economy was meant to cave in after Brexit, that hasn’t happened and the economy certainly hasn’t undergone the sort of shock that it experienced after Black Wednesday. Markets go up and down and choppy sea does not mean the ship is about to sink. In fact its the Eurozone that should be worried about the future. We are better off out.

  16. zorro
    Posted July 11, 2016 at 12:06 pm | Permalink

    Let’s see what happens now with the (unopposed) coronation of Theresa May and the effect that has over the next few months of indecisive Brexit lite (if that) and the ignoring of the referendum…… Disappointing.

    zorro

    • Lifelogic
      Posted July 11, 2016 at 3:51 pm | Permalink

      Well give her the benefit of the (tiny) doubt for a day or two, perhaps she can reinvent herself in to a real Conservative. One who believes in lower, simpler taxes, UK democracy, real control of our borders, selective only immigration, cheap reliable energy, smaller efficient government, no HS2, no Hinkley point C, a bonfire or red tape, simple employment laws, no central wage controls …….

      We shall know she is a wrong’un if Osborne has any role at in the cabinet. If she is stupid enough to keep him on we are done for. Or indeed if she finds any serious roles for McLoughlin, Rudd, Ken (or Greig) Clark, Baroness token, Morgan, Fallon, Hammond, Crabb, Soubry ……

    • eeyore
      Posted July 11, 2016 at 6:35 pm | Permalink

      Looks like having won the battle we’re now losing the war. Right now it’s no great extremity of cynicism to regard Mrs May’s words on Brexit as being no more than that, mere words, the Zimbabwean dollar of politics.

      Until the next election Mr Redwood and his 140 or so Tory colleagues on the Brexit wing of the party will have to hold the line. The Conservative majority is thin but the pro-EU vote in the House looks to be secure. Closing the gates at Hougoumont comes to mind.

      What will we lose if the gates stay open? For close on 1000 years we have voted our own taxes and obeyed only those laws we assented to. It’s melancholy to think that after so long our generation may be the one that fails. Never has the distinction between British and continental polities been so starkly drawn.

    • Hope
      Posted July 11, 2016 at 8:04 pm | Permalink

      What a depressing contempt for democracy. The Tory party and its nasty tricks forcing May to be PM so we will get EU light helped by the scare stories and actions of the establishment.

      How could May with her appalling record as Home Secretary and appalling record for all things the leavers want be PM! It will end in tears. A person who has taken no substantive action to curb immigration over six years and has the worst record in history. A person who could not deport terrorists, wants to retain ECHR along side Sharia law! Not be jaw the public wants ECHR, we clearly do not, but astonishingly she claims because parliament has no appetite. A person who stated we have control over our borders! A person who supported Cameron with his swivel eyed loon insults towards supporters, impose gay marriage without a mandate or support from the public and moreover wanted to subordinate our country to foreign rule from the EU.

      The Tory party sure surreptitiously defying the will of the public. Labour will not be in a mess forever. She might be in office u til 2020 , but your party will be a long time in the worldiness. 17 million people voted against her views and your party ignored them.

  17. Lifelogic
    Posted July 11, 2016 at 12:10 pm | Permalink

    Indeed (albeit only when valued in rather devalued sterling terms) but you are right the markets have taken it very well. They are right to.

    It is however a tragedy that the remain hyenas have got to Mrs Leadsom and made her feel she has to cave in. The membership have been cheated of a proper policy debate and a real choice. Firstly by Gove’s idiotic knifing of Boris and now by Leadsom lack of courage.

    Let us hope that May does not turn out to be the dire, tedious, boring, wet, PC, BBC think, tax borrow and waste, HS2 loving, EUphile, open door immigration remainer that she so far seems to be. Perhaps she can indeed reinvent herself as a proper Conservative we shall see. I rather doubt it myself.

    The first thing she needs to do is fire the dire, economic illiterate Osborne replace him with someone at least slightly competent. Someone in the Allister Heath mode. Someone who can undo all the insane taxes and wage control laws he has brought in, his absurdly high stamp duty, his 10% insurance tax, the 45% tax income tax, his absurdly high CGT, the new huge taxes on tenants (interest and the 3% SDLT), the IHT ratting, the attacks on non doms, the endless pension pot thefts. Then she should abandon HS2 and Hinkly Point C, a bonfire of red tap, relaxation of planning and announce a go ahead for a five runway Heathwick hub airport.

    I suspect though she will just turn out to be another dire John Major type but in a dress and kitten heels. We shall all see very soon indeed. But is hardly likely to be a revolution with her in charge.

    With this and a sensible chancellor the markets might really make some decent gains.

  18. Denis Cooper
    Posted July 11, 2016 at 12:10 pm | Permalink

    I’m very grateful to Andrea Leadsom for paying attention to my post yesterday saying that I might have to go into retreat to avoid another two months of argy-bargy.

    Now our job is to keep Theresa May up to the mark and make sure that the Article 50 notice goes in just as soon as the courts dismiss the various vexatious cases being brought by the bad losers on the Remain side.

    Only then will those who want to Leave the EU be able to sleep easily.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted July 11, 2016 at 3:53 pm | Permalink

      Difficult to sleep easily with Theresa May in charge let us see what her cabinet looks like I expect it to be hugely depressing.

      • Lifelogic
        Posted July 11, 2016 at 6:09 pm | Permalink

        Theresa May started her new job by saying how proud she was to be chosen by the “Conservative Party” to be its leader. But she was not chosen by the Conservative Party at all, I doubt that she would have been either. They were prevented from giving any opinion on the matter.

        It seems Mrs May was selected mainly by remain supporters and by Gove’s idiot and self defeating attack on Boris. Then by the vile remain hyenas hounding out Leadsom. This because she said something perfectly reasonable, sensible & true about having children. This was warped into something totally different by the media and hyenas. I suspect May will just be Cameron II without the ability to think on her feet. Perhaps John Major II then.

        I hope she will surprise me.

        • zorro
          Posted July 12, 2016 at 9:36 am | Permalink

          I was thinking the same thing! It was the MPs who elected her….. Continuity Cameron with the hand of Osborne (deputy PM) behind her…..

          zorro

      • Lifelogic
        Posted July 11, 2016 at 8:02 pm | Permalink

        Odds on JR as next chancellor 100:1 and Hammond favourite at 10/11. Even Gove at 6:1 and English graduate and ex-journalist before he took up the black art of ensuring a lefty remain supporter won the leadership!

        Even Anna Soubry, Yvete Cooper Balls, Nicky Morgan, Boris and Nigel Farrage have more chance it seems! Why in politics is ability to do the job well so often the last thing they look for?

        • Lifelogic
          Posted July 11, 2016 at 8:18 pm | Permalink

          Hammond for goodness sake! Yet another PPE graduate (so we can safely assume he has little grasp of real economics). Someone who foolishly thought the country would suffer financially from Brexit when the reverse is the case (if we do actually escape and get a sensible chancellor anyway)

        • Lifelogic
          Posted July 11, 2016 at 8:29 pm | Permalink

          About thirty people in the list, and yet there are only two I would judge even have the ability to do the job – Liam Fox and JR.

          Mind you almost anyone would be better than Osborne.

        • zorro
          Posted July 12, 2016 at 9:37 am | Permalink

          They can’t control John. That’s their problem.

          zorro

      • Hope
        Posted July 11, 2016 at 8:07 pm | Permalink

        Liberal lefty new Labour. There is no difference between her politics and that of New Labour. Let us hope it brings an end to the Tory party, Tory in name not values, beliefs and principles. As a former grammar school girl will she bring back grammar schools? She does not even like to admit she attended one!

      • Richard1
        Posted July 11, 2016 at 11:09 pm | Permalink

        Her proposal for Swiss-style mandatory shareholder approval of board remuneration is perfectly sensible; her proposal for European social democrat-style employee representation less so (although in practice harmless – countries where it applies such as the Nordics and Germany have found workable ways round it). It is important that she sees the urgency of strong supply side boosting policies and doesn’t go in for gestures or virtue signalling. That can no longer be afforded. The UK needs to be relentlessly competitive.

    • Brigham
      Posted July 11, 2016 at 4:26 pm | Permalink

      I think that it is people like you John,that will have to make sure that Theresa May does not try to give us a watered down version of Brexit. It is important that she is fully committed to leaving the single market completely. Only then, can we Brexiteers, as Denis Cooper says, sleep easily. I must say that I have been worried constantly by the bad losers. Even the twit David Lammy.

    • matthu
      Posted July 11, 2016 at 4:38 pm | Permalink

      We will only sleep easy if the UK negotiators are actually on our side … for too long they have been batting for the other side (so to speak).

      Of course, their EU counterparts don’t appreciate the laws of cricket anyway.

      • zorro
        Posted July 11, 2016 at 6:54 pm | Permalink

        The UK negotiators have also been too soft when dealing with the EU negotiators 🙂 ….

        zorro

        • Paul
          Posted July 12, 2016 at 10:16 am | Permalink

          Since Mrs Thatcher anyway. Seem to remember Blair or Brown giving that hard won rebate back for a promise that never happened.

    • Caterpillar
      Posted July 11, 2016 at 11:47 pm | Permalink

      If a large number of the 24 Remain backers of the cabinet remain in the cabinet then we know that it has all been a waste of time. Senior positions need to go to Leave supporters, previous senior remainers (Osborne, Hammond etc) need to be relegated (sideways is not sufficient, they have demonstrated their inability, lower positions or backbencher). I hope that at least 52% of the cabinet are Brexit supporters, but since we are not a proportionate country a higher number ought to be expected.

      A light exit option needs to be quickly rejected, no treating humans as negotiation pawns and … All the obvious points that have been made here before.

      The question of Federal UK, or reverse Greenland/Denmark need to be quickly, but deeply considered, due to Gibraltar, NI, Scotland.

      Consideration of the real social challenges of the future (large structural unemployment, inequality etc. ) will need to be a part of the future though they do cross current party boundaries. National not just London capital investment projects need to be accelerated.

  19. Giles Brennand
    Posted July 11, 2016 at 12:18 pm | Permalink

    The single market is growing more slowly the the rest of the world. It is the only free trade zone which has unrestricted free movement of people.

    FTSE250 growth and profitability will increase dramatically as we have free trade agreements driven not by desire for political union, but by pursuit of economic innovation, effective markets and protection of consumers, workers and the environment

  20. JJE
    Posted July 11, 2016 at 12:23 pm | Permalink

    So Cameron out and May in. Perhaps we will get a third bridge over the Thames in Reading at last. Shame it took a few plates being smashed to get there but some things are important.

    Do remember to mention it to her. I imagine you’ll wrap up the negotiations elsewhere quite quickly.

    • matthu
      Posted July 11, 2016 at 4:39 pm | Permalink

      Can’t we get an EU grant for that while we are still members?

      The Greeks and the Scicilians would be the ones to advise.

  21. NickC
    Posted July 11, 2016 at 12:39 pm | Permalink

    I knew I could rely on the British establishment to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. We voted to leave the EU. Full stop. Not part in the EU. Not like Norway, still in the EEA. But leave. Leave first, negotiate with the EU afterwards. But oh no, we get a new PM, Theresa May, who supported Remain, and therefore lacks the intellectual rigour to understand about our national democracy and about independent trade. Anyone who thought that the EU was the answer to our problems is not fit to be PM.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted July 11, 2016 at 3:55 pm | Permalink

      Anyone who thought that the EU was the answer to our problems is not fit to be PM.

      I tend to agree but did she or was she just lying before the referendum and can come out now? We can but hope.

  22. Phil Richmond
    Posted July 11, 2016 at 12:45 pm | Permalink

    So were going to continue with a cabinet of Soubry, Rudd, Hunt, Morgan, Greening, Osborne, Crabb, Clark, Le(f)twin(g) led by a terrible former Home Secretary who voted Remain.
    A total disaster!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    p.s Whilst Soubry is still in your party then I’m not rejoining!

    • Lifelogic
      Posted July 11, 2016 at 1:46 pm | Permalink

      Soubry is and was totally appalling. She should have not roll at all in anything. But then nearly all the remainers were dreadful. Indeed most of the supporters of Mrs May are rather dreadful. Let us hope we at least get a sensible chancellor and a sensible non greencrap (cheap & reliable) energy secretary.

      So thanks to Gove we have to suffer May!

      • Lifelogic
        Posted July 11, 2016 at 1:46 pm | Permalink

        role!

        • Hope
          Posted July 11, 2016 at 8:11 pm | Permalink

          Gove knew this all along. This was part of the conniving Tory party to overthrow the public will of voting to leave. Let us hope Aaron Banks and co will help fund a new party to rid us of these dreadful arrogant contemptuous people. I will never vote for these type of New Labour politicians dressed in blue.

          • Hope
            Posted July 11, 2016 at 8:12 pm | Permalink

            Read Piers Morgan article about a senior Tory telling him what he wa going to do with Boris Johnson before it happened.

  23. forthurst
    Posted July 11, 2016 at 12:46 pm | Permalink

    Building stocks staged a full recovery at 11.35 in expectation of the Norway Option and the mouth watering prospect of further mass immigration with the metropolitian elite (English-hating filth) once more back in the driving seat. It is important that politicians understand that the majority of the country voted to end mass immigration for once and for all. If they think that that the country will take their treachery lying down then they better think again.

    • zorro
      Posted July 11, 2016 at 6:58 pm | Permalink

      They are running out of road and people will not take this lying down. Potentially worrying times ahead if they prevaricate too long. Their default option will be to provoke a conflict with Russia. They are already brewing it as a viable option…..

      zorro

      • anon
        Posted July 11, 2016 at 10:04 pm | Permalink

        why would you fight?

        • anon
          Posted July 11, 2016 at 10:05 pm | Permalink

          and who is the enemy?

          • zorro
            Posted July 12, 2016 at 9:39 am | Permalink

            I certainly wouldn’t be fighting! Some elements may find it a useful distraction……

            zorro

  24. CHRISTOPHER HOUSTON
    Posted July 11, 2016 at 12:49 pm | Permalink

    Business always favours a placid and non-violent population governed by a dictatorship.

    How long the people of the UK will tolerate its major political parties the Labour Party and the Conservative Party swapping and changing leaderships and policy by the votes of just its Parliamentary MPs and with the legal system producing 1000 barristers who come out agin 17 million voters and indeed even the ones who voted otherwise, is a matter, well obviously not for meaningful debate, at all.
    Today is the day of UK populist parties and groups: the 11th day of the 7th month. The Start.

    • Paul
      Posted July 11, 2016 at 2:37 pm | Permalink

      They won’t. If May does effectively ignore the referendum I would expect Farage back (assuming not too ill) and a colossal swing towards UKIP. I think a majority comfortably voted to leave in the Tories and not far off in Labour and they will be very very cross.

      Though May is clearly not an idiot and will be aware of such a consequence.

      • CHRISTOPHER HOUSTON
        Posted July 11, 2016 at 6:16 pm | Permalink

        Paul:
        I wasn’t thinking of the failed UKIP. As a party it had its chance. But squabbles and jealousies by persons of lesser stature than Farage within UKIP enlightened its own membership to the fact that UKIP is a flawed organisation. With a much flawed leadership group.
        It denied and sabotaged progress at branch member level.

        So let the UKIP High Command , not one of whom can command more than about 13% even in a local Councillor vote, ( look at their results…less than very junior members up and down the country) and a much depleted vote from their one MP, stay in the political backwoods for ever. Good riddance! No, a more strident Party is required.

      • Lifelogic
        Posted July 11, 2016 at 6:16 pm | Permalink

        “Though May is clearly not an idiot”

        Well in the referendum campaign she assured the nation they “had control of the borders, while remaining in the EU, though Schengen”.

        She is surely therefore either a deluded idiot, or a very blatant liar. Or is there another explanation I am missing? I cannot see any others.

      • zorro
        Posted July 11, 2016 at 7:01 pm | Permalink

        If only someone could have effectively challenged May and presented a vision to the whole country outside of the metropolitan elite (far too influential in comparison to its numbers). They could have built a national coalition for effective Brexit and swept the next election, including the North in the face of the clear elitist cabal trying to rob them of their democratic decision to leave the EU……

        zorro

  25. Spinflight
    Posted July 11, 2016 at 1:13 pm | Permalink

    Leadsom is out…

    Who now will hold May’s heels to the brexit fire?

  26. Ian B
    Posted July 11, 2016 at 1:29 pm | Permalink

    So, the fix is in, Leadsom is forced out and May gets her Buggins Turn. I am beyond disappointed by the behaviour of most of the Tory Party and the media. Never has an historic opportunity been so casually thrown away.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted July 11, 2016 at 1:40 pm | Permalink

      Let us hope May is not the dire John Major in kitten heels that she certainly appears to be.

      We will see as soon as she chooses her cabinet. If Osborne has any roll at all it will be a very bad sign indeed. She needs a decent lower and simpler taxes chancellor who can contol the bloated and largely incompetent state sector and scrap HS2 and Kinkley. One who can keep the IHT promise ratted on by pension & landlords/tenant robber Osborne.

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted July 11, 2016 at 2:14 pm | Permalink

      We haven’t lost, yet. With every passing day our referendum victory slips from our grasp, but there is still hope.

      Theresa May is my local MP. Since she was first elected I’ve watched her on both the local and national stages, I’ve occasionally exchanged emails with her, in 2001 I even stood alongside her on the platform when she made her speech as winner and I made what was said by some to be a stirring speech in which I said that UKIP would not be giving up and eventually the UK would leave the EU.

      She has always been pro-EU but has also always given the impression that she is nowhere near as fanatical about it as some other MPs. I can believe that she will go with the tide, but I also believe she will need to be kept up to the mark.

    • Liz
      Posted July 11, 2016 at 2:51 pm | Permalink

      Absolutel;y agree – a disaster. If Andrea Leadsom did not think she could stay the course then she should have stood aside for Gove. Now we have the worst of both worlds.
      Doubtful of Brexit in any form will ever happen now.

      • Lifelogic
        Posted July 11, 2016 at 6:17 pm | Permalink

        Me too.

    • Martin Adamson
      Posted July 11, 2016 at 3:42 pm | Permalink

      Just wonder how it is that quite so many Tory MPs voted for someone who melted like ice cream in the Sahara at the first sign of controversy with the media? What does this tell us about their judgement?

      • Denis Cooper
        Posted July 11, 2016 at 6:10 pm | Permalink

        I don’t think it was necessarily that as much as certain Tory MPs blackmailing the members with a threat that if Leadsom became leader they would bring her government down. It seems that Anna Soubry was the only one named, but there were said to be 10 – 20 of them as against a Tory working majority in the Commons of just 16. If I was a Tory and in the constituency association of one of them I would be pressing for de-selection.

        • Chris
          Posted July 12, 2016 at 6:03 pm | Permalink

          The newspaper article which I read mentioned Soubry as the one “spearheading the charge” but also mentioned and had photos of Ruth Davidson, Therese Coffey and Priti Patel in this context, implying they were involved. If true, perhaps it was the apparently damning criticism from Patel which really hurt. After all, she was meant to have been an ally.

      • Ian B
        Posted July 11, 2016 at 6:51 pm | Permalink

        I think it’s pretty obvious that she was forced out. Tory internal politics is like the Kremlin. It was clear over the weekend that Team May already had deals with the media. The mud would have flown for nine weeks, all in one direction.

        Well, last time the party chosen was John Major. Look how well that turned out. Imposing a “unity” candidate rarely has the desired effect.

      • a-tracy
        Posted July 12, 2016 at 8:40 am | Permalink

        Are you kidding Martin? She was threatened in print that she would be the Tory party Corbyn with MPs refusing to have her as leader even if the members voted her in, causing complete disunity. Soubry, Morgan just to name a couple with Pritti stabbing her in the front, you may not have been paying attention. Look at Crabb knocked out by a silly sex story (yet again another career and family life ruined).

        I quite admire Corbyn for standing up to this onslaught he needs to take care of himself and his family.

        John I hope they put you on the negotiating committee i’m sure that this would give us some reassurance that the team won’t just roll over.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted July 11, 2016 at 3:58 pm | Permalink

      Gove is really is to blame, what an idiot he was, and Leadsom for lacking the courage.

      • zorro
        Posted July 11, 2016 at 7:03 pm | Permalink

        It may not be the whole story with AL.

        zorro

  27. Gary
    Posted July 11, 2016 at 1:38 pm | Permalink

    With the election of May and the knifing of Leadsom , we have Bremain in and Brexit out.

    Watch this get fudged for a Remain in the EU, by the front door or the backdoor.

    The Elites will not be denied.

  28. Margaret
    Posted July 11, 2016 at 1:52 pm | Permalink

    The pound rising has been correlated to Mrs Leadsam quitting race for leadership. What on earth caused her to quit. Perhaps she sensed set ups left right and centre.

  29. The PrangWizard
    Posted July 11, 2016 at 1:53 pm | Permalink

    Just back from Holland to the news that Mrs May is now unopposed!

    The idea that she will act in accordance with the wishes of the people with all those Elitist oilies and remainers like Hammond surrounding her is ludicrous. And as for the madwomen Soubry, may God preserve us!

    Mrs May will betray us just as Cameron did. She will not be up the job anyway, she’s spent most of her ministerial career locked away, fearful to face the light of day.

    I fear she will be a dreadful Prime Minister. Just more of the same Blairite policies and appeasing of those who oppose our way of life that we’ve had for a far too long.

  30. fedupsoutherner
    Posted July 11, 2016 at 1:56 pm | Permalink

    I am disappointed that Leadsome is out but glad that we can now get down to the business of actually leaving the EU. There is no excuse for not instigation Article 50 no reason why we shouldn’t be out of the EU by 2018. I hope some in the cabinet are got rid of so we can get some sensible policies in and in particular a change of energy policy. I also hope fracking will be high on the agenda because it will bring great economic benefits to this country. If they are serious about building a GREAT Britain once again then they will have to be bold and stop bowing down to the AGW theorists and the cretins like Caroline Lucas who have nothing better to do than get in the way of progress. The country needs serious change.

  31. Gary
    Posted July 11, 2016 at 2:02 pm | Permalink

    FTSE rises along with all stock markets in the world , coincidentally(not!) just after Bernanke visits japan and then japan announces a monster zero-coupon(never have to pay anything back) helicopter drop of yen that will be used in the carry trade to buy all markets everywhere for free.

    This is pure animal farm being sold as economics. It’s free money for the 1% and a shafting of the 99%. Again !

    This ends in utter chaos of the global market, as sure as the Rising Sun, the only unknown is when ? Enjoy it while it lasts.

  32. ian
    Posted July 11, 2016 at 2:17 pm | Permalink

    Foreigners prioritised for NHS treatment over British tax payers, I think that will increase a lot more now as time goes on.

  33. Mecklenburgh2
    Posted July 11, 2016 at 2:19 pm | Permalink

    Her message is fresh and exciting. Behind it lies a lifetime of business and political experience.

    In recent months she has shown she is a woman of principle, placing the UK’s interests before her own, campaigning for a cause that was unfashionable in the government she served. She did so with passion, with dignity and with effectiveness. Those are the qualities I look for in our next Prime Minister.

    So said John Redwood on July 4th. Since when these claims have been shown to be wanting in several dimensions. Lets be clear I am not at all enchanted about Mrs May as PM but the abject failure of virtually all the leading Brexiteers to behave with dignity or common sense over the last fortnight should make those who followed their lead wonder about the motivations these wannabe leaders had and the promises they made. Mr Redwood is excused completely on this accusation given his constancy over many years over European issues. But his judgement of Prime Ministerial qualifications seems to be unusually awry.

  34. graham1946
    Posted July 11, 2016 at 2:21 pm | Permalink

    Yet again the Tories get the wrong one. Have done consistently since Margaret Thatcher was stabbed in the back.

    Here comes EU lite with free movement, a slightly reduced membership fee (for a little while) until they can force us back in via the back door. No trade deals with the rest of the world. All effort wasted.

    Can only now hope for UKIP in 2020.

  35. Doraemon
    Posted July 11, 2016 at 2:46 pm | Permalink

    John,

    Are you aware that Sterling has depreciated c10% since the referendum? That would increase foreign revenues, and therefore equity valuations, wouldn’t it? Are you also aware that the Bank of England promised £250bn of further liquidity? And that interest rate expectations are now lower, so dividends are discounted at a lower rate, also increasing valuations?

    Why haven’t you mentioned these factors John?

    • hefner
      Posted July 11, 2016 at 8:56 pm | Permalink

      Because as the owner of this blog, he is quite right (and good at) presenting some limited slices of facts, that always seem to show him right.

      What I cannot understand is the non-negligible number of wide-eyed admirers of JR, taking any of his utterances as if coming from the Good Book. Are they all so “limited”?
      Also it is likely to be true that believing in all sorts of conspiracies does not make one too keen to search different or further explanations.

  36. Janet
    Posted July 11, 2016 at 3:12 pm | Permalink

    There was a lot of support for AL on the ConservativeHome forum yesterday. Today it is all being censored. I tried to post a reasonable, polite comment to the effect that Andrea Leadsom had been forced out, and that it would not serve to unite the party. My comment was deleted by the administrator each of three times I tried.

  37. CHRISTOPHER HOUSTON
    Posted July 11, 2016 at 3:14 pm | Permalink

    Just seen Cameron on TV.Says he’s flitting by Wednesday. Not enough time to cancel his comics with the newsagent. Is this his second fit of maunginess ( best but still poor translation from Yorkshire dialect= mardiness ) since deserting the Country immediately after the Brexit vote?

    Let us hope no leader of this country is going to honour him with some House of Lords title. He really doesn’t deserve it even if one believes in their Lordships rule o’re us.

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted July 12, 2016 at 10:28 am | Permalink

      My wife claims that the Camerons have rented out their London home and have to give notice to the tenants, and that is why they wanted to stay in Downing Street for some months … sometimes she is even more cynical than I am.

      • Chris
        Posted July 12, 2016 at 6:07 pm | Permalink

        Cameron apparently wanted to appear at the G20 alongside Obama in September – great photo opportunity to end on…..

  38. Rhys Jaggar
    Posted July 11, 2016 at 3:34 pm | Permalink

    This does make future ‘little boy crying wolf’ scenarios a bit less plausible, doesn’t it?

    I hope there is a huge amount of documentation like this to show that all the scaremongering was precisely that.

    I also hope that we can eliminate from positions of influence those who use such ridiculous tactics in future. They add no value to society, waste taxpayers’ money and encourage a culture of contempt for those without access to repudiate such nonsense in a timely manner.

  39. Mark
    Posted July 11, 2016 at 3:35 pm | Permalink

    Now that we have the certainty so far as the markets are concerned of the end of Remain government, we have seen a further fillip in the markets. Their real judgement will have to await the choices Mrs May makes for her cabinet.

  40. They Work for Us?
    Posted July 11, 2016 at 3:45 pm | Permalink

    Andrea Leadsom standing down is most disappointing and shows that the Conservative Party abetted by the main stream media can stop a non establishment candidate in their tracks. This exposes the sort of democracy that we actually have.
    I hope there will be a very powerful and vocal pro Brexit group of MPs, who refuse to be cowed by the Whips, who will on a daily basis expose lies and obfuscation in negotiations, scream blue murder at any deal that has free movement of people in it, any hint that we contribute to Europe financially and of anything other than free trade or WTO conditions.

  41. Lifelogic
    Posted July 11, 2016 at 4:12 pm | Permalink

    Serious social reform, more central wage control laws and laws to force workers into company board rooms says Thersa May – what next a cones hot line? What is she even doing in the Tory party?

  42. David Cockburn
    Posted July 11, 2016 at 4:21 pm | Permalink

    Up over 3% so far. With the uncertainty radically reduced, I’m calling for further rises.
    JR welcomed May’s elevation graciously and made a call for rapid implementation of Leave. Forget Article 50, just go.

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted July 11, 2016 at 6:03 pm | Permalink

      What do you suggest? Please don’t suggest anything which would require the consent of Parliament because that would not happen, at least not without an inordinate delay; that is precisely why the diehards of the Remain camp want Parliament to become involved. So it would be either an exercise of Royal Prerogative to simply denounce the EU treaties and so make a chaotic withdrawal, or an exercise of Royal Prerogative to trigger Article 50 and make an orderly withdrawal. I know which of those I would prefer, the one to which we have previously agreed.

  43. Roy Grainger
    Posted July 11, 2016 at 4:29 pm | Permalink

    Some of my commercial property trust investments were up 7% today. No prizes for guessing why, the markets believe Brexit is off.

  44. MickN
    Posted July 11, 2016 at 5:35 pm | Permalink

    A couple of weeks ago we got our country back. Now it feels like we have lost it again.
    It had better work. I am the wrong side of 60 but if the 17 million from the leave camp decide they have to take to the streets then I will be there.
    Disgusted and sick doesn’t even begin to describe the way I am feeling right now.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted July 11, 2016 at 6:21 pm | Permalink

      Depressing isn’t it. Let us hope against hope that May can actually be made into a real Conservative and get us out. I doubt it. Parliament is hugely overwhelmingly remain.

      • Denis Cooper
        Posted July 12, 2016 at 10:24 am | Permalink

        “Parliament is hugely overwhelmingly remain.”

        The present lot of parliamentarians are, and given the choice they will never vote to leave the EU, no matter how many times the people may have voted for that in referendums. And those in the Lords cannot be removed through a general election, they are unelected legislators-for-life.

        Presented with a fait accompli because the Article 50 notice had gone in they would no longer have that option of stubbornly defying the expressed will of the people and would have to make the best of it, but until that has happened they will try every possible trick to keep us in the EU.

        I can’t understand why JR and some of his colleagues can’t see that.

        If I drank gin I too would be reaching for the bottle!

    • fedupsoutherner
      Posted July 11, 2016 at 11:15 pm | Permalink

      Oh, God Mick N, you have me reaching for the gin bottle!! Depressing isn’t the word I’d use but what I would use I cannot put on this page.

  45. Denis Cooper
    Posted July 11, 2016 at 5:56 pm | Permalink

    As we will get a new Prime Minister two months earlier than expected please could she chop two months off the unnecessary delay before she sends the “Dear Donald” letter?

  46. MartinW
    Posted July 11, 2016 at 6:20 pm | Permalink

    I fervently hope that Mark Carney’s contract will be ended by Thursday, even though this will mean substantial compensation. Perhaps Mervyn King would be happy to look after things until a new governor is appointed? I hope, too, that Osborne will not be offered a government job, since he behaved abominably in the Brexit campaign, with his credibility now gone.

  47. Chris S
    Posted July 11, 2016 at 6:26 pm | Permalink

    “The doom mongers are finding it is quite difficult talking some markets down”.

    Doesn’t stop them trying !

    Unbelievably, that Soubry woman was on C4 news again tonight emphasising repeatedly that we face “really difficult time ahead”. Immediately after she spoke, even John Snow had to admit that the FTSE 100, the FTSE250 and the pound were all up !

    For goodness sake get Mrs May to send Soubry to the back benches and tell her to shut up !

    • Cheshire Girl
      Posted July 11, 2016 at 8:29 pm | Permalink

      All we can hope is that Anna Soubry will face a ‘really difficult time ahead’. That’s the least she deserves!

      • Chris
        Posted July 11, 2016 at 9:25 pm | Permalink

        She has a very small majority in her constituency which can be easily overturned.
        She seems to be a vulgar and unprincipled woman who reflects very badly indeed on the Conservative Party.

  48. Edward2
    Posted July 11, 2016 at 7:16 pm | Permalink

    I had a day off today and therefore I watched all today’s politics unfold.
    Your comments on TV on several channels were just great.
    As was Andrea Leadsom with het elegant and measured statement on retiring from the contest.
    I have great hopes for the future.
    Looking forward to seeing the new Cabinet

  49. agricola
    Posted July 11, 2016 at 7:42 pm | Permalink

    We voted for Leave, the country voted for Leave. If May attempts to deliver anything less on gaining the position of PM by default , then the door is wide open for UKIP.

    I can understand not wishing to get into a Corbyn scenario, but if it is used to sell us anything less than we voted for, the conservative party which at present represents neither their members at large nor what the electorate has voted for, could quickly become yesterday’s chip paper.

  50. John Robertson
    Posted July 11, 2016 at 8:23 pm | Permalink

    With Donald Tusk saying the European Council should lead negotiations I see no need for Theresa May not to populate the Brexit Team with Brexiteers.

    Right we need to rally…..

    Oops, ‘we’

    Not sure this membership will last. Just used to my vote not being party political membership and I just court myself saying ‘we’. I need to contemplate that ‘we’ and the removal of democratic choice it involves even if I vote Conservative!

  51. Bob
    Posted July 11, 2016 at 8:48 pm | Permalink

    I had a nasty feeling that the Tory Brass wouldn’t allow the grassroots members to have the last say on their new leader.

    Judging by the people who supported May and in spite of Cameron stepping aside it appears that the Remains are still in control.

    We had better start getting our ducks lined up for 2020.

  52. Androcles
    Posted July 11, 2016 at 9:31 pm | Permalink

    Private Eye has published the predictions made by various pundits prior to the referendum – remain to win comfortably for the most part. For these same people to talk of a narrow Brexit win is a bit like Roy Hodgson saying Iceland only won by 2 -1.
    I am sure, with an even playing field, leave would have won by much more. I trust that the 60 or so Tory MPs who would have voted down the punishment budget will ensure that the new PM cannot function if she does not honour the will of the people.

  53. Chris
    Posted July 11, 2016 at 9:34 pm | Permalink

    It is interesting that tonight the situation is as follows: the EU question is not resolved in the Conservative Party. The few true eurosceptics that there were in the Party have been beaten/outmanoeuvred but the split is still there. UKIP’s raison d’etre is as strong as ever, as the need for holding the Conservative Party to account i.e. on carrying through the wishes of the people, as expressed by the referendum result is even more urgent. I would say that the “power” of the eurosceptics within the Conservative Party has been emasculated so it will be up to grassroots Conservatives who have left the Party, plus UKIP members and Grassroots Out members of other Parties to take over the role.

    I was struck by how Leadsom was apparently left to fend for herself over the weekend, except for IDS, Tim Loughton, that plucky Conservative Association/councillor lady with Leadsom at the final announcement, and Owen Paterson. Where were the others? No wonder Leadsom said she did not have nearly enough support from her own MPs in the Party. Most of those 80 plus “supporters” seemed to have disappeared into thin air.

  54. CHRISTOPHER HOUSTON
    Posted July 11, 2016 at 10:23 pm | Permalink

    Interviews with Tory Party rank and file members after 300+ MPs deprive 150,000 of their vote:-
    “Well, …pause…it would’ve been nice if we’d have had a vote, but anyway…pause, probably turn out for the best,… sigh…”
    ” Well I voted Remain…so..pause..well, doesn’t matter really, fixed stare…sigh..”
    ” They be marrrrstaz, un marrrstz no best down they?”

    It was right what a number of ex-Conservative members told me who had defected to UKIP ( before they realised it was a jump from the frying pan into the fire ):-
    “All the aspirational people have left the Conservative Party. “

  55. Martin C
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 2:39 pm | Permalink

    A grim faced BBC reporter has also just announced that the FTSE has continued its plunge upwards on the markets today. He also said that the catastrophic gains mean that once again senior citizens who rely on savings investments and private pension funds face unpleasant rises in fund values. David Lammy said that things cannot continue like this and demanded that a second referendum to be called immediately to reverse this damaging good news.
    H/t: Guido’s comments.

  56. McBryde
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 5:21 pm | Permalink

    If we do get out, I think it’ll be just in time. Europe is on a meltdown – with the Continental banks getting worse by the day.

  • About John Redwood


    John Redwood won a free place at Kent College, Canterbury, and graduated from Magdalen College Oxford. He is a Distinguished fellow of All Souls, Oxford. A businessman by background, he has set up an investment management business, was both executive and non executive chairman of a quoted industrial PLC, and chaired a manufacturing company with factories in Birmingham, Chicago, India and China. He is the MP for Wokingham, first elected in 1987.

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