Brexit means Brexit

So says our new Prime Minister in her first speech as the new Leader of the Conservative party. In another twist to the incredible plot of the Conservative leadership election, Andrea Leadsom pulled out of the race, allowing Theresa May to inherit the position.

It is curious that all 3 senior Conservatives groomed for prominence in the Vote Leave campaign have now been eliminated from the Leadership contest. Vote Leave chose Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and Andrea LEadsom as their preferred voices and faces from the Conservative side, and gave them the lion’s share of the media to do. Each of them fancied their chances of leadership based on that exposure, but two bowed out of the contest and one was eliminated by MP ballot.

There are now discussions going on about how the new Pm can best keep faith with the UK voter electorate, getting us out of the EU in a timely and successful way. She says she will appoint a Brexiteer as Chief Negotiator. She will also have to make sure the official team are well briefed, confident about the strength of the UK’s negotiating position, and aware that we do not have to do it according to the Treaty rules.

The first main decision the new government has to take is whether to proceed by means of rapid UK Parliamentary legislation, or whether to go for an early notification under Article 50 with a tight timetable for the negotiations. You could even do both together.

The draft Bill is available. It would take back control by repealing the 1972 Act which is the origin of EU power in the UK. It would put into UK law all outstanding EU requirements, to leave in place the tariff free trade and regulations prior to discussions with the rest of the EU about whether they want any changes to that. It would allow early changes to our borders policy and cancellation of our subscriptions.

The negotiation needs to start from the proposition that we are taking back control of our borders and money. These should not be in contention. The only thing the Uk would like is continued tariff free trade. It should not take long to find out if the EU wants to place WTO style low tariffs on us or not. As WTO rules would allow us to place quite high tariffs on French agricultural produce and 10% tariffs on cars it seems unlikely they would want to do that.

Article 50 is not a great basis for the negotiation as it implies all is in the pot for debate and all could take a long time. I would rather trigger it to complete their process after all has been sorted out. If the government refuses to get on with legislating then a poor second would be immediate Article 50 followed by very tough negotiations and a willingness to simply pull out of talks and legislate if they are unrealistic.

Meanwhile, however we do it, the government needs to produce its new migration scheme and tell people coming to our country new rules will apply.

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207 Comments

  1. Ian Wragg
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 5:13 am | Permalink

    Vote Leave were nowhere to be seen here in the East Midlands constituency. UKIP and Leave Alliance delivered a 70 % out vote.
    We have been stitched up and unless you deliver you are toast at the next election.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted July 12, 2016 at 6:22 am | Permalink

      Especially under May, she is unlikely to be good at the ballot box. Not that there is much serious opposition.

      • Lifelogic
        Posted July 12, 2016 at 10:43 am | Permalink

        How on earth can Carney deny that he put the bank firmly on the remain side in the referendum with a straight face. His behaviour was a total outrage. His performance has been dire he should go.

        Doubtless this will cost tax payers another small fortune though I cannot see why he cannot just be fired without compensation.

        • Chris
          Posted July 12, 2016 at 6:15 pm | Permalink

          Jacob Rees-Mogg was very effective in nailing Carney. Videoclip on internet.

          What JR-M exposed was Carney’s illogical position (besides anything else). Carney said it was his responsibility/duty to make the warning/statement about Brexit in order that various organisations could plan for a Brexit. Why then did Carney not intervene with George Osborne and David Cameron, on the same grounds, to demand that Osborne/Cameron draw up an exit plan in order for the country to cope with the shock of Brexit?

          • Lifelogic
            Posted July 13, 2016 at 8:06 am | Permalink

            Indeed he needs to go. Let us hope we get a sensible new chancellor and he boots Carney out. He should take his climate alarmist wife back to Canada too.

            The bank was supposed to be independent yet it tried to destroy UK democracy with blatant remain propaganda. As of course did Cameron and Osborne.

        • Hipe
          Posted July 12, 2016 at 7:40 pm | Permalink

          It is not curious it is your nasty party’s dirty tricks by remainers to defy the public and show them complete contempt.

          Hammond claims it will take six years to leave! Brexit means Brexit-sometime in the future and at some cost like freedom of movement, Sharia law, ECHR, EU contribution? Undoubtedly not in the way 17 million people voted for.

          How many leavers will be in cabinet? Instead of Leadsom being the story over the weekend why was it not Crabb and his inappropriate texts? I sincerely hope the Tory supporters leave in droves they could not be insulted any more than by making May an unelected PM!

          Back in 2007 May claimed there must be an election and Brown should not inherit the post. What does she say now?

          • Lifelogic
            Posted July 13, 2016 at 8:09 am | Permalink

            These devout “Christian” men do seem to have problems with their sex texts and indeed sex in general.

            At least he did not get the leadership, I assume we will not have problems with Theresa May on that score anyway!

          • Denis Cooper
            Posted July 13, 2016 at 9:22 am | Permalink

            Hammond claimed that it took a minimum of four years after signature to get an EU treaty into force. Somebody should point him in the direction of this wikipedia entry:

            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Lisbon

            “The Treaty of Lisbon was signed by the EU member states on 13 December 2007, and entered into force on 1 December 2009.”

            Two years, and it would have been just one year if the Irish hadn’t voted against it in their first referendum.

    • Jerry
      Posted July 12, 2016 at 6:43 am | Permalink

      @Ian Wragg; Says who, UKIP, remind us how many votes did they get nation wide in 2015, for eurosceptics and the Tories to be “toast” at the next GE would need a bigger swing than Labour got in 1945… More chance of Jeremy Corbyn winning!

      • Hipe
        Posted July 12, 2016 at 7:42 pm | Permalink

        Drivel Jerry. Who won the European elections? 17 million voted to leave the EU and how many now feel betrayed by the Tory party? Labour will not be in a mess foreve and will seize the disenchantment and betrayal of the Tory party.

        • Jerry
          Posted July 13, 2016 at 6:18 am | Permalink

          @Hipe; “Who won the European elections?”

          Irrelevant, EU elections were under PR. UKIP got a mere 8.37% of the 2016 GE vote, compared to 20% for Labour and 25% for the Conservatives.

          The only people talking drivel are those like yourself @Hope and Mr Wragg, full of nothing but UKIP hype.

      • libertarian
        Posted July 13, 2016 at 8:35 am | Permalink

        UKIP are a busted flush

        Unless Farage stages yet another one of his comebacks ( i.e. he doesn’t get his coveted seat in the Lords) there is no one of any credibility to lead the rabble. The reason Carswell is now anti UKIP is the reason a lot left UKIP they went from marketing themselves as low tax, pro small business libertarians to a left wing tax and spend “working class” party. They dont know what they stand for any longer. They are the supreme protest vote, thats all.

        Yet our politics and what laughably passes for a democracy has been found out. None of our major political parties are democratic in any sense, none of them truly represent the people who elected them and they have rallied together as the establishment to fight against the will of the people. What dismays me most is the total absence of entrepreneurial spirit and innovation amongst the political class. This is a once in a millennium opportunity to reinvent our democracy and political systems to make them fit for the future. What are they all doing? What they’ve always done, punch and judy politics, back stabbing, off the record briefings, stitch ups and ignoring the voters . The entire political establishment is pathetic, useless and unfit for the job.

    • Al
      Posted July 12, 2016 at 7:31 am | Permalink

      Agreed. It was similar in this constituency with the majority of people visible on the ground being from Leave.EU.

      I hold no great hopes that our new PM will deliver any real changes or that she will deliver on leaving the EU (Note “Brexit means Brexit” doesn’t say what she herself means by Brexit), particularly not within a tight timescale. If she doesn’t, however, people will not have forgotten by 2020.

      • Hope
        Posted July 12, 2016 at 7:48 pm | Permalink

        The Tory party surreptitiously defying the will of the public. Labour will not be in a mess forever. She might be in office until 2020 , but your party will be a long time in the worldiness. 17 million people voted against her views and your party ignored them.

      • CdB
        Posted July 12, 2016 at 8:33 pm | Permalink

        Re: “Note “Brexit means Brexit” doesn’t say what she herself means by Brexit”

        what did the leave campaigns tell us that Brexit meant? Were they all saying it meant the same thing? I am interested to know

      • Denis Cooper
        Posted July 13, 2016 at 9:25 am | Permalink

        To be fair, she has said it means leaving the EU.

        For example here:

        http://www.conservativehome.com/video/2016/07/watch-mays-final-pitch-for-the-leadership.html

    • Mike Stallard
      Posted July 12, 2016 at 7:32 am | Permalink

      Dr North forever! If only people would listen!
      EUReferendum blog.

    • Ian Wragg
      Posted July 12, 2016 at 7:42 am | Permalink

      Just been trawling the Web John. It seems thousands of conservative members have ripped up their membership cards and gone over to UKIP.
      Failure to deliver and that does not mean associated membership with contributions, free movement etc. will see a revolution next election.
      If Gideon is anywhere near Brexit negotiations we will know the direction of travel.
      It must have been a very worrying Bilderburger meeting last month.

      • Jerry
        Posted July 12, 2016 at 6:44 pm | Permalink

        @Ian Wragg; “Just been trawling the Web [../etc./..]”

        As you usually do, trawling for the latest UKIP party propaganda, sorry, Press Release.

        Millions have also joined the Labour Party to, doesn’t mean such parties are any more electable, when it comes to actually placing that X in the box on polling day. Anyway, I suspect that many of those you claim have joined will leave again once UKIP goes chasing after the Labour vote, as their chief backer implied they will be doing only last Sunday (remember that traditional Labour has always been anti EEC/EU)…

    • Horatio
      Posted July 12, 2016 at 10:28 am | Permalink

      Agreed. Excellent article by Tebbit in today’s telegraph

      http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/12/theresa-may-will-drive-tory-members-into-the-arms-of-ukip/

      Brexiteers around the country are utterly astonished and indeed furious that a remainer and doubtless a remainer cabinet, a Cameron mk2, will lead moves to brexit. As a consequence the dire Soubury, Hammond, crabb and greening will be rewarded.

      I don’t know how easy it is to deselect Tory MPS, but many of these people seem completely unperturbed that they do not at all represent the ardent wishes 75% of their members.

  2. David Price
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 5:17 am | Permalink

    “Meanwhile, however we do it, the government needs to produce its new migration scheme and tell people coming to our country new rules will apply. “

    Based on the answers to your previous questions in this regard the incoming Prime Minister appears to have ruled this out.

    It would appear Vote leave and Leave EU still have a job to do.

    • Mark B
      Posted July 12, 2016 at 6:21 am | Permalink

      We voted to leave the EU, nothing else. However, I do believe that there is room for renegotiation regarding freedom of movement. When the EEA agreement was reached there were far fewer members and, many of those applying were wealthy nations, so migration flows would not be that great. But when new countries from eastern Europe joined, the Labour government chose not to put in any restrictions, whereas Germany, France and others did. This led to a large number of people coming into the UK. To address this, espeically in view of any new accession countries, we need to be able to tighten the rules further but, our government must also implement more vigorously those rules that are in place.

      • David Price
        Posted July 12, 2016 at 7:03 pm | Permalink

        England is the second most densely populated country in the EU, a mild attenuation of non-selective immigration from the EU is not justifiable, there has to be a concerted effort to restrict immigration to need and the capacity of our infrastructure and services.

        In saying no to the EU we also said “no” to putting the needs and interests of the EU ahead of those of our people, so the requirement for action is more wide ranging than the remainders would like to pretend. I am not convinced the EEA/EFTA approach is in our best interests at all as it gives leeway for Remain to keep us entangled with the EU.

        • Mark B
          Posted July 13, 2016 at 5:25 am | Permalink

          England – Not the UK. And it is the UK that decides this as we as the UK decided to leave the EU.

          There is room in the EEA agreement for the temporary suspension of free movement. So why has our government not asked the Commission if they think it in England’s and the UK’s best interest ?

          Immigration is far higher from non-EU countries than from the EU. The UK government can still control non-EU immigrants. So why has this not been done ?

          The point is, there is no point in going for a long a protracted negotiation when the problems regarding MASS immigration are right here at home. All you would be doing would allow those who want MASS immigration to flood the country while negotiation are being dragged out year upon year.

          • David Price
            Posted July 14, 2016 at 7:36 am | Permalink

            I don’t know whay our government has not properly managed immigration flows but the person responsible for the last 6 years has just become PM following a referendum where people indicated they want less.

            I think you will find that the majority of immigrants come in to England. MigrationWatch puts it at 90%;

            http://www.migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/briefings/migrants-uk-overview

            So it’s a bit cheeky for Sturgeon et al to lecture us that Scotland must decide when it is England that bears the overwhelming brunt.

            I agree, we must not have a protracted period of indecision. I agree with our host that a date be specified after which any innigrants/migrants have no entitlement and a new common application process be established. I think that cut-off date should be June 23rd. EU immigrants established here before that date must be allowed to stay

    • Lifelogic
      Posted July 12, 2016 at 6:26 am | Permalink

      Vote leave and Leave EU certainly still have a big job to do. The war must continue we have only won a battle. Mrs May cannot be trusted. Why is she wittering on about absurd & damaging company board composition laws, when the EU is the real issue that needs addressing.

      As a convenient distraction one assumes.

    • fedupsoutherner
      Posted July 12, 2016 at 9:51 am | Permalink

      David Price. You are so right. UKIP are already raising funds to keep the party going as they know that we won’t get what we think we will. They recognise the fact that they will have to keep up the pressure or else we will get sold down the river.

      I do hope for once they are wrong but I have an uneasy feeling and I can’t wait to see who will be in the new cabinet. We need complete change and a general common sense approach to everything and to stop listening to the radicals who have been allowed to influence policy without any knowledge of the subject.

  3. Leslie Singleton
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 5:17 am | Permalink

    Except in your own mind and that of Cameron’s PR dominated and PC non Conservative government there is no such thing as migration. If it means anything at all it is about animals and birds going backwards and forwards each year. Perfectly pathetic.

  4. formula57
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 5:19 am | Permalink

    It would be encouraging if the government now showed it was getting on with the job of Brexit, that the seeming drift and indecsion of the last three weeks was over.

    I am pleased that we will have a new prime minister soon and do not have to wait until September. Let us hope Mrs May does well: her words since being elected are encouraging.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted July 12, 2016 at 6:28 am | Permalink

      Her words since being elected are encouraging – what the ones about government control of company board rooms! There is very little encouraging about he dire list of backers.

    • getahead
      Posted July 12, 2016 at 3:53 pm | Permalink

      I find her words ambiguous.

      • Lifelogic
        Posted July 12, 2016 at 7:28 pm | Permalink

        Professional politician’s words are always ambiguous they are chosen for that very reason.

  5. Caterpillar
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 5:24 am | Permalink

    “It is curious that all 3…” Yes it is curious, enough to make a PM hum. By the end of the week we will know the new Cabinet, and the direction and speed in which we move, we will see.

    I do think the whole behaviour of the referendum, Cameron’s resignation and the leadership battle will have done little to attract people to politics, and little to encourage a belief in existing institutions (political, business or media) and processes. I will hope that the country can take the opportunity to reform itself.

    • eeyore
      Posted July 12, 2016 at 6:35 am | Permalink

      Curious indeed. Even those who aren’t conspiracy theorists will find lots to think about. You’re much closer to the action than the rest of us, Mr Redwood, but you seem at sea too.

      However, all is not lost for Brexit. The Conservative majority is I think 12 (or 16 depending on how and who you count). Pro-Brexit MPs can make life painful for Mrs May by selective withdrawal of support. A PM without her own mandate forced to lean on the Opposition can never be comfortable.

      And there’s always the nuclear option of a confidence vote fully legitimised by the referendum result.

      A good brisk start will work wonders. In a day or two Mrs May will begin filling her Cabinet. Overnight Mr Hammond has moved mysteriously in the betting from nowhere to 11-8 favourite for Chancellor. Is he acceptable to Brexiters? If not, what will they do about it?

    • Caterpillar
      Posted July 12, 2016 at 8:37 am | Permalink

      I assume Leadsom will be given Chief Secretary to the Treasury to “keep an eye on” whoever the new Chancellor is.

  6. zorro
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 5:27 am | Permalink

    What new migration scheme ? ? The one that they have no intention of introducing? I just hope that Mr Letwin doesn’t accidentally leave our EU negotiation strategy in a St James Park bin! You can be dure that French/Germans would find it soon enough….

    zorro

    • zorro
      Posted July 12, 2016 at 5:29 am | Permalink

      They will say that the closing down sale will be too much of a risk or TM will take too long to read all the documents and make a decision….

      zorro

      • Horatio
        Posted July 12, 2016 at 10:33 am | Permalink

        The BBC, Sky and remain campaigns are still fighting and executing project fear. This will draw out and the longer it does the more likely a c**k up like the Norwegian option.

        Meanwhile Siemens back tracks and gives the UK 100% backing come what May, all Footsies are up and more nations are clamouring for trade deals..

  7. CHRISTOPHER HOUSTON
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 5:35 am | Permalink

    Theresa May has twice indicated publicly she seeks “more” control of free movement of EU citizens entering this country. Her attitude could not be more plain. No complete control.

    One can already hear: ” We entered tough negotiations. Of course we did not get all that we wished and we have stopped free movement of workers in the main but we have agreed to certain categories and types of worker to enter in exchange for a comprehensive trade deal. These workers, professionals, are absolutely essential for the proper and welcome functioning of our NHS services etc etc and our economy will grow because of their work making a positive contribution to the United Kingdom.”

    A General Election will be held to legitimise the new deal where we will technically be OUT of the EU but actually IN the EU by the back door. A betrayal of the Referendum vote.
    Hence all the smiley triumphalist faces of every MP who has so steadfastly opposed leaving the EU. The only sad faces are on the Leave campaigners.

    The international community/markets including Canada , despite The Rt Hon Mr. Haigh going to tell the Canadians in Toronto very recently that we are OUT of the EU firmly believe we will not Brexit. “Especially, as Mrs May is for Remain, so it is highly unlikely the UK will actually leave the EU” ( As said only yesterday on air., on a Canadian Business Programme. )
    Here the LibDems have actually got being in the EU as part of their next election manifesto.
    Mrs May should call a General Election now. She never will be voted into power. We have seen her coming.
    Frankly, I would rather vote Labour than for Mrs May and her Remainers. At least the Labour Party is honest about staying in the EU. Who on earth will vote Tory now?

  8. Roy Grainger
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 5:38 am | Permalink

    So, I see you Conservative MPs have managed to elect a PM who thinks she should use the EU citizens already settled here as bargaining chips. I won’t be voting for you again. It also shows, incidentally, how she is prepared to break promises made by the Leave campaign. Matthew Parris has already told us how this plays out – a second referendum in about 2-3 years time. A complete shambles engineered by the Leave team, including yourself for voting for a leadership candidate who collapsed immediately under press attack and so was plainly unsuitable to be PM.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted July 12, 2016 at 6:31 am | Permalink

      Matthew Parris has a long history of being wrong on almost everything, let us hope he is wrong on this too. Why on earth did he ever join the Tory party one wonders?

    • Mike Stallard
      Posted July 12, 2016 at 7:30 am | Permalink

      And Matthew Parris is…..?

      • Lifelogic
        Posted July 12, 2016 at 7:30 pm | Permalink

        Ex faux tory MP and essentially a LibDim journalist – occasionally funny, but nearly always wrong.

    • Jerry
      Posted July 12, 2016 at 8:07 am | Permalink

      @Roy Grainger; Any unilateral action on this by the UK government will leave UK nationals living in the EU at the mercy of the EU27, the fact that UKIP supporters can’t see past their own political needs just proves why UKIP should never be close to the rains of power here in the UK – the problem is not the UK using EU citizens already settled in the UK as bargaining chips, it is the EU and the EU27 using UK citizens settled in the EU as bargaining chips.

      But then I guess there are few UKIP votes to be lost from the UK expat community, esprecaily those within the EU27…

      • stred
        Posted July 13, 2016 at 4:59 am | Permalink

        UKIP/Leave had always made clear that EU citizens already here can stay. There are 3x as many here as ex-pats in EU and it would be a disaster on both sides to suggest otherwise. Which is what May, Brokenshire, Hammond, Grieve and the brilliant takeover team have done. Now we have an extra argument and millions of worried people for nothing but another piece of Home Office blundering. If Junker had proposed to send home UK citizens we could have responded and killed the idea in a day.

        Of course, now they will not reverse the stupid words as it would be an admission of incompetence. Don’t worry folks, they hardly ever managed to send anyone home before, even if they were criminals, so anyone doing a useful job will be safe. Meanwhile, during the very slow and careful preparation for a sort of bit of control here in exchange for staying in there, anyone thinking of coming will be buying an airline ticket.

        No wonder the Home Office functionaries think she’s the best ever. Any sign of a proper counting system yet? Any patrol boats out there? Any sign of a quick change requiring evidence of a job, or address tracking?

        • Jerry
          Posted July 13, 2016 at 6:28 am | Permalink

          @stred; Thanks for proving that you understand little of the real issues, (party/factional) political positions are cheap.

          • stred
            Posted July 13, 2016 at 9:45 am | Permalink

            Jerry. Try taking facts slowly,one by one. Then you may become less confused.

        • zorro
          Posted July 13, 2016 at 4:36 pm | Permalink

          ‘No wonder the Home Office functionaries think she’s the best ever.’….. Really, says who?

          zorro

          • stred
            Posted July 14, 2016 at 9:19 am | Permalink

            One of the BBC’s propagandists.
            They will no doubt be glad that the energy minister who told us that electricity would be more expensive if we left is the replacement. Will she think that asking people at airports whether the expect to stay over a year is a better measure of numbers than NI records?

    • stred
      Posted July 12, 2016 at 9:40 am | Permalink

      PS. If you allow this one, make sure you wear a stab proof vest. Sorry about mistakes not shown up by ‘grammarly’.

    • Robert Eve
      Posted July 12, 2016 at 10:41 am | Permalink

      Matthew Parris is not someone to take seriously.

      • Roy Grainger
        Posted July 12, 2016 at 9:05 pm | Permalink

        Except he said immediately after the Brexit result that what needed to happen first to keep us in EU was a May coronation, this was before Gove knifed Boris and it seemed a bizarre notion at the time.

    • Andy
      Posted July 12, 2016 at 2:55 pm | Permalink

      So the EU are using the rights of UK citizens ‘already settled [there] as bargaining chips’ ? I have yet to see a statement from the Commission affirming the rights of UK citizens resident there. You don’t seem to rail against that fact. I wonder why.

      • zorro
        Posted July 12, 2016 at 8:39 pm | Permalink

        Indeed, one way from Jerry!

        zorro

      • Roy Grainger
        Posted July 12, 2016 at 9:06 pm | Permalink

        It was promised by the Leave campaign. If it hadn’t been I wouldn’t have voted Leave.

        • Jerry
          Posted July 13, 2016 at 6:46 am | Permalink

          @Roy Grainger; So you put consideration of EU27 nationals here in the UK before UK nationals living in the EU27…

          I don’t care what Vote Leave promised, they also said that £350m per day would be spent on the NHS but that campaign bus wrapped promise has already been rowed back on, such promises were akin to manifestos, not yet hard policy (or in this case Brexit negotiating) positions once in government and the cold light of day is upon us.

          • zorro
            Posted July 13, 2016 at 4:39 pm | Permalink

            ‘They also said that £350m per day would be spent on the NHS’….. You know that is not true. Never was it mentioned that all or £350m would be spent on the NHS. £350m would not be spent on the EU in fees, and we would be able to spend more on the NHS as a result….. No matter how many times you say it, that is not factual.

            zorro

          • Jerry
            Posted July 13, 2016 at 6:40 pm | Permalink

            @zorro, are you blind? That £350m pledge was on the side of their campaign bus!

            http://news.sky.com/story/can-wollaston-call-163350m-brexit-claim-a-lie-10308489

          • zorro
            Posted July 14, 2016 at 6:49 pm | Permalink

            No I am not blind….. Never was it mentioned that ALL of the £350m would be spent on the NHS.

            There is a mention of some sum around £100m I believe. Although there would have been nothing to have stopped the government, if it wished, to spend the whole EU contribution on the NHS. That’s what governments can do if not constrained by external powers…..

            zorro

          • Jerry
            Posted July 16, 2016 at 11:40 am | Permalink

            @zorro; You are getting confused between what was was (obviously) intended and what was actually said on the side of that coach!

            As no other public sector was mentioned alongside the NHS (for example education, highways or housing) Vote Leave can’t now start trying to find fault with the general public, or their abilities to comprehend, when Mr & Mrs Pleb took the message to mean that £350m extra would be spent on the NHS post Brexit, fault lies squarely with Vote Leave or their PR agency.

            Had the message been more generic, “Vote Leave and there would be £350m to spend on our public services”, or what ever, without the specific mention of the NHS, I would accept your point but it wasn’t.

            Reply It was made crystal clear before the vote that we did not have £350 net to spend on NHS

          • Jerry
            Posted July 16, 2016 at 5:12 pm | Permalink

            @JR reply; Indeed it was, in some of the press, on some of the broadcast media, on some websites, but that bus message said (or at least implied) what it did – QED.

            If a future UK government will not have that sort of money nett to spend post Brexit why was it ever mentioned in such a way,, never mind emblazoned on the side of that ruddy campaign bus – as I said the same message could have been presented but without the untended message of singling out an apparent single recipient!

            Reply I made clear the position accurately here and in broadcast media. Not many people got see the bus live.

      • Jerry
        Posted July 13, 2016 at 6:54 am | Permalink

        @Andy; “I have yet to see a statement from the Commission affirming the rights of UK citizens resident there. You don’t seem to rail against that fact. I wonder why.”

        That is exactly my point, and why I have said what I have!

        @zorro; Unlike Love Leave and the opportunist BSE group trying to split those wanting/accepting Brexit I am most certainly seeing this both ways, from both sides, it would be hard not to considering that family and friends are affected.

        • zorro
          Posted July 13, 2016 at 4:43 pm | Permalink

          Absolutely Jerry…. because Leave supporters had no family or friends to be affected by this decision. Playing the family card eh?….. Well, this Leave supporter has 4 children 😉

          zorro

          • Jerry
            Posted July 13, 2016 at 6:48 pm | Permalink

            @zorro; Nice to know that you place the needs of EU27 migrants, that many never wanted in this country in the first place (other wise why make an issue out of migration), over the needs of UK nationals in the EU27 – says it all really, quite shocking… 🙁

          • zorro
            Posted July 14, 2016 at 6:51 pm | Permalink

            Groan…..

            zorro

  9. Mick
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 5:39 am | Permalink

    After watching the debate in Westminster yesterday on the article 50 and listening to all the traitor MP’s wanting to try and delay us getting out of the dreaded eu, the sooner Mrs May invokes article 50 the better then at lest my mine would be put at rest knowing that we are on the journey out, as for calling a GE I think that would be a big mistake before we are out of the dreaded eu, you don’t want to take the chance of losing and letting lab/lib/ green/snp traitors getting control of Westminster then the chance of getting out would be kicked into the long grass

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted July 12, 2016 at 9:50 am | Permalink

      Thanks, that debate is here:

      https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2016-07-11/debates/1607114000002/Article50ParliamentaryApproval

      and it’s very depressing that some MPs who genuinely want us to leave the EU insist on muddying the waters and so inadvertently helping those who are still trying to make sure that we never leave.

      I can easily foresee Theresa May saying some way down the line:

      “I know I said “Brexit means Brexit”, but unfortunately despite our best efforts it has proved impossible to get both Houses of Parliament to agree to that, and so we have to stay in the EU and continue to work to reform it.”

      If Cameron had carried out his promise/threat and sent in the Article 50 notice immediately after the vote to leave we would not be in this position of having won the referendum battle but still standing to lose the war.

      Liam Fox put his finger on it, at Column 26:

      “The Prime Minister originally said that he would trigger article 50 immediately, so presumably he felt that he had the full legal authority to do so. Does my hon. Friend accept that those who want to have a vote before article 50 is triggered are concerned not with parliamentary sovereignty but at making a clear attempt to thwart the democratic will of the British people?”

      Does the UK government intend to take the UK out of the EU, or not?

      If so, it should do what the UK agreed it would do under those circumstances:

      http://www.lisbon-treaty.org/wcm/the-lisbon-treaty/treaty-on-European-union-and-comments/title-6-final-provisions/137-article-50.html

      “A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention.”

      That is, if the judges on the Divisional/Appeal/Supreme Courts allow that.

  10. Jerry
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 5:40 am | Permalink

    “It is curious that all 3 senior Conservatives groomed for prominence in the Vote Leave campaign have now been eliminated from the Leadership contest.”

    Sorry but that says far more about ‘Vote Leave’ than it does leadership contest or those not within the Brexit camp, a populist, a decisive and an inexperienced set of candidates is not a very good mix when there are many eminently more suitable MPs on the Brexit side of the argument – whilst many understand why you yourself, John, didn’t stand there are others who could have stood in place of the three names you cite, one has to ask why they chose not to stand.

    • acorn
      Posted July 12, 2016 at 7:05 am | Permalink

      I said a while back Jerry; whatever happens with the referendum pantomime, and that is exactly what it was, THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY MUST SURVIVE.

      This referendum and where we are now, is very similar to Greece and the election of Syriza Party. Corporate Europe, including the dodgy banks, strong armed all there tethered politicians to kill Syriza, or at least, buy them out.

      In the Tour de France race, teams have riders who act as “domestiques” (riders, in a stage, who work solely for the benefit of the Team). I think Vote Leave had some of those who were riding for Team Conservative Party and its corporate sponsors. Mrs Leadsom tried to go off script and got a smack.

      Conservative voters will get an offer they won’t be able to refuse by the 2020 general election. It may say Brexit on the tin but …

      Mr Corbyn will be the only socialist left in the “conservative lite” Labour party and neo-liberal Corporate UK, will get back to enriching the 1% metropolitan elite. The 99% have to hope that the next Chancellor is a deficit Dove, not a Hawk.

      • stred
        Posted July 13, 2016 at 6:27 am | Permalink

        Perhaps domestiques are put in to ride for a yellow jersey but are working to bring him down in the last stage.

    • Narrow Shoulders
      Posted July 12, 2016 at 7:12 am | Permalink

      Yes, Mr Grayling is evidently looking for advancement, such advancement would have been guaranteed if he had made the final two. Why was he not persuaded to be the preferred leave candidate once David Davis and yourself Mr Redwood decided not to stand?

      I do hope Mr Redwood that you are included in the exit negotiating team and that you and the legacy Eurosceptics are not frozen out.

  11. Lifelogic
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 5:47 am | Permalink

    Indeed but Meanwhile Theresa is wittering on about worker and consumer representatives on company boards! More control of directors pay by shareholder would be a good thing is done sensibly but the rest is surely just a silly and totally misguided red herring to distract attention from the leaving the EU? What is needed is a bonfire of red tape not moronic, ill considered new red tape, deterrents and costs for businesses.

    She does not sound remotely like a real conservative to me. Well we shall see what sort of a cabinet she comes up with. In particular who will be chancellor. Hopefully not the rather dyed in the wool remainer Philip Hammond. If he really must have a job leave him where he is. We need a chancellor who can inspire confidence, one who can undo the Osborne’s absurd socialist agenda. A direction of travel to ever more taxes, ever more tax complexity, ever higher taxes, pension, saver, non Dom and tenant mugging and his IHT ratting.

    Osborne should certainly have no position in the government whatsoever.

  12. Roy Grainger
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 5:50 am | Permalink

    “George Osborne has indicated that he would stay on in a senior role if asked, with some expecting that he could become the new foreign secretary.”

    Oh, how gracious of him ! A grateful nation rejoices !! Having him as Foreign Secretary would pretty much scupper the new Brexit team as he travel round the world telling foreign politicians what to say to. Of course people are carefully avoiding mentioning one thing about Mrs May aren’t they – do you think we could persuade George to be Deputy PM ?

    • Lifelogic
      Posted July 12, 2016 at 6:37 am | Permalink

      Osborne has been a disaster as Chancellor entirely the wrong direction of travel. Lies over IHT, endless tax increase yet a massive PSBR and trade deficit.

      As Powell might have put it:-

      Does my right hon. Friend not know that it is fatal for any Government or party or person to seek to govern in direct opposition to the principles on which they were entrusted with the right to govern? In introducing a compulsory control of wages and prices, in contravention of the deepest commitments of this party, has my right hon. Friend taken leave of his senses?

      Osborne must go he has been a disaster.

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted July 12, 2016 at 8:07 am | Permalink

      🙂

    • zorro
      Posted July 12, 2016 at 9:31 am | Permalink

      As you say, let’s see who becomes deputy PM……

      zorro

      • APL
        Posted July 12, 2016 at 7:59 pm | Permalink

        Zorro: “As you say, let’s see who becomes deputy PM”

        Better yet, let’s abolish the position of deputy PM.

        It’s not as if the post of PM is indispensable, as we’ve just noticed, you can change Prime ministers in a matter of days.

        Hestletine, Prescott and Clegg for goodness sake. Can’t honestly say we couldn’t have done without them.

    • Andy
      Posted July 12, 2016 at 2:56 pm | Permalink

      I think a swift return to the backbenches would be more appropriate.

      • stred
        Posted July 12, 2016 at 6:58 pm | Permalink

        Preferably a quick return to Waterford to meet the surfs.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted July 12, 2016 at 6:10 pm | Permalink

      The first thing the new Chancellor needs to do is to undue the absurd and totally incompetent tax increases and tax complexity increases that the foolish Osborne and his incompetent treasury have made.

      Allister Heath is excellent today in the Telegraph, but even he thinks Gove or Javid could do the job. I am not convinced by either myself. Gove is an English graduate and very foolish back stabber and Javid (Politics and Economics Exeter) has never sounded very impressive to me. I would far prefer JR, Liam Fox (or Allister Heath himself or similar).

      The whole treasury seems to be largely incompetent and needs sorting out. Why else would they have allowed Osborne and the BoE to make such a complete complete fist of it all?

      Taxes should be simple, low (very low if on turnover) and fiscally neutral – Osborne has failed hugely on all counts, and even ratted on his own IHT promise while pretending not to.

  13. Elsey
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 5:56 am | Permalink

    It is more than curious that the other three pulled out. It has all the trappings of a planned campaign by Remainers to get Mrs May elected. I do not believe a word she says. So far all I see is delay and soft pedaling.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted July 12, 2016 at 6:17 am | Permalink

      We shall see with her choice of Cabinet. Certainly we saw a great deal of “the nasty party” in the absurd attacks on Andrea Leadsom.

      “Being a Mother gives me an edge on May, says Leadsom” shouted the Times on Saturday, but she did not say this at all in the interview as far as I have seen.

      Then the May supporting hyenas got to work. etc ed

    • sm
      Posted July 12, 2016 at 6:59 am | Permalink

      I find allegations of a Remain conspiracy regarding the 3 Leave candidates for PM most curious – and I have been a Leaver for decades.

      As someone with many years of experience dealing with Cons Party matters in London, I always felt that neither Johnson, Fox nor Gove were in any way Leadership material, for very different reasons. And frankly, if Leadsom was then the best that the Leavers could come up with, then I can’t see how anyone expected that a Leaver could take control.

      For the good of the country, we have to stop the bickering and sour grapes and ensure that the new PM sticks to her promise that Brexit means Brexit; I would suggest that the best way of doing that is for us all to be firm, positive and constructive

      • Lifelogic
        Posted July 12, 2016 at 6:13 pm | Permalink

        Boris should have won it. He would been far better (ballet) box office than the tedious May. With far better policies too and much brighter. A working compass is needed unless May reinvents herself it is clear she does not have one.

        • CdB
          Posted July 12, 2016 at 8:49 pm | Permalink

          you think that Boris would make a good PM: good grasp of details; good following things through, good organizer, good negotiator…

          He’s very good at enthusing people but is that the same skill set as is needed to be PM right now?

          • Roy Grainger
            Posted July 12, 2016 at 9:10 pm | Permalink

            Boris was good as London Mayor because he appointed good people and delegated If you want a PM who manages the detail himself lets get Gordon Brown back.

          • Lifelogic
            Posted July 13, 2016 at 8:14 am | Permalink

            Indeed even Ronald Reagan what excellent – Boris would have been far better in a similar mode. He had a working compass and would have chosen good people, won elections and entertained too.

            Not much chance of that with May!

            All thanks to Gove!

        • stred
          Posted July 13, 2016 at 6:35 am | Permalink

          Thanks for the ‘ballet box office’image. Imagine Boris in tights flinging Teresa around dressed in a tutu and on points.

    • hefner
      Posted July 12, 2016 at 8:49 am | Permalink

      What about the overall stupidity of those three?

    • Tom William
      Posted July 12, 2016 at 10:18 am | Permalink

      Rather than a conspiracy by Remainers (who expected to win anyway) it looks to me a combination of total ineptness by Vote Leave (like Bush/Blair’s invasion of Iraq) in having no plans for backing a real leader and the unwillingness of other suitable candidates to put their head above the parapets.

      Because the bulk of the Tory MPs were Remainers and No 10 whipped hard for May no quality Leaver had the courage to stand, apart from the three finalists all of whom had obvious faults. Liam Fox had the courage but no support. There were several who could have stood a much better chance than Andrea Leadsom, while making the same arguments.

      Your proposals, JR, are so eminently the way to go that I desperately hope you and others will be able to influence the government. If we get Brexit Light the Conservative party will be finished.

    • Nig l
      Posted July 12, 2016 at 10:31 am | Permalink

      Agree totally. This is yet another show of arrogant politicians complete contempt for democracy. Yes we want members and their donations and of course as much work as they can do at election time to get votes out etc but how dare you think you will get a vote to elect a new leader because you cannot be trusted by Cameron/Feldman et al.

      As soon as Teresa Mays opponent was known, her supporters conducted a vicious campaign against her to the extent that one senior cabinet minister intimated she would leave the Party if Angela was elected and others said it would ‘break up’ the Party. No doubt all these will get plum jobs in return for their treachery.

      As I said so much for democracy.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted July 12, 2016 at 10:37 am | Permalink

      I fear you are right, but I will give her the benefit of the doubt – until I see the new Cabinet. If Osborne and the other dire remainiacs and economic illiterates are there (in any significance) we will know exactly where she stands. Perhaps she can reinvent herself. All her history suggests she is a pro EU, greencrap, PC, BBC think, climate alarmism, tax borrow and waste, Libdem just like Cameron and Major were – but without the ability to think on her feet (that Cameron had). We shall see.

    • rose
      Posted July 12, 2016 at 2:26 pm | Permalink

      Anyone who followed the process could understand that Boris dropped out because he did not have the support of enough MPs; that Fox was knocked out because he did not have the support of enough MPs; that Gove was knocked out because he did not have the support of enough MPs; and that Mrs Leadsom dropped out because she did not have the support of enough MPs. They all understood this – why don’t other people?

      The question is, why did Mrs May have the support of so many MPs? Presumably because they are out of touch, just as they were on Brexit.

      • Mark B
        Posted July 12, 2016 at 6:30 pm | Permalink

        Spot on.

      • Chris
        Posted July 12, 2016 at 7:40 pm | Permalink

        Because they wanted to maintain the status quo and they think May will do that. No wonder they are all smiling, Soubry included.

      • anon
        Posted July 12, 2016 at 10:28 pm | Permalink

        A right of recall probably would have induced more representative behavior. Another failure at reform.

  14. Lifelogic
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 6:01 am | Permalink

    Brexit mean Brexit you say. Well you have rather more confidence than I do. Given the dire, solid remain majority of most “Conservative” MPs, most of the state sector, the BBC bias, and indeed most of the House of Commons.

    I suspect she will choose an appalling cabinet of remainers and distract attention with absurdities such as government control over company board composition, we shall see.

    She give all the indications of being yet another misguided fake no nation, tax borrow and piss down the drain, central control, Conservative, in the Heath, Major & Cameron mode.

  15. CHRISTOPHER HOUSTON
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 6:07 am | Permalink

    Third paragraph: ” She ( Mrs May ) says she will appoint a Brexiteer as Chief Negotiator.”

    Once upon a time, there was a very left-wing Labour MP who gave up his peerage so he could continue his work as an MP. He was trusted by what was called the hard-left.
    So, it was no surprise that the person who would be sent to America “Chief Negotiator” for the deal relating to North Sea Oil/Gas would be Mr Benn. Only he, at the time, could placate the Left of the Labour Party who were staunchly Anti-American ( or, Anti-International Businessmen and Financiers, as they put it ).

    You see, only the Americans at the time had the advanced technology developed and up and running in oil and gas platforms in deep water plus the skilled and trained manpower to make them work.

    The DEAL: the Americans got 55% of all the oil and gas revenue. We got 45%. of our own oil and gas resources. Yes, that’s normal actually. Similar percentage kind of American deal was done in Ukraine after the EU intervention.
    Later, we sold the technology on to the Russians for a few million dollars much to the anger of America.

    The point: Yes there will be a well-known Brexiteer as Chief Negotiator with the EU. His role will be to legitimise the backdoor deal to the EU and paint it as kosher. Nothing more. We’ve already seen this movie.

    • CHRISTOPHER HOUSTON
      Posted July 12, 2016 at 6:36 am | Permalink

      By “similar… deal with Ukraine” I refer to the various companies, many but not all American, Western for sure, who immediately after the democratically elected President of Ukraine was ousted by a military junta made deals to develop fracking in Ukraine with actully normal market percentages for the companies involved which are in fact legitimate in Ukraine’s case as all the risk was with companies’ progress or otherwise and, they were self-financing.
      Actually a leading US politician had his son managing one of the companies.Quite legally and above board. Though I don’t think Mr Putin had relations working in fracking in Ukraine.

  16. Mark B
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 6:08 am | Permalink

    Article 50 is not a great basis for the negotiation as it implies all is in the pot for debate and all could take a long time.

    Their (EU) house, their rules. Article 50 and no other route.

    I also would not be any hurry to invoke it. I think there is many more important things that need to be done before then. We need to have a clear and coherent plan. This to be explained to all interested parties and stakeholders. When BREXIT does indeed kick off, we do not want to find ourselves caught out.

    There is much to do. eg New passports, driving licenses etc. EU Citizens in the UK need to know that their positions are safe and that there is no need to panic. We need to discuss the border with the Rep. of Ireland and, should the EU move to full UNION that the UK and Ireland will not be effected by Schengen. If it is, then we need to have either a hard border or a ‘soft border’ between Ulster and the mainland.

    The problem is, we have been too focused on both trade and immigration and blinded ourselves to a whole range of other arguments and situations.

    Remember, the vote was to either remain in the EU or leave. It said nothing else. The EU is a political project wrapped up in trade agreements to make it easier for governments and the populace to swallow. It was and is about UNION.

    What the government and new PM must do, is take in a wide range of views and opinions plus, proper and knowledgeable legal advice.

    Yes we need to leave. But we need to leave in such a manner and way that their is no lasting damage or bitterness. That means respecting the commitments we signed up to.

    Our kind host believes in the sovereignty of parliament. He believes in the rule of law. He cannot therefore state that because we wish to leave the EU we will determine by which route we shall leave. That would leave the door open for nationalists like the SNP and Sinn Fein who wish to break with the UK to do so. They could, quite rightly in my view, argue that the UK government broke away from one political UNION, so why shoud they be bound by another. After all, they voted completely differently to the rest of the UK.

    It would be good to hear his thoughts on some of the points I have raised here.

    • Mark B
      Posted July 12, 2016 at 6:08 am | Permalink

      Sorry, good morning.

    • Mark B
      Posted July 12, 2016 at 6:34 pm | Permalink

      I see that you have not decided to put up my posts again. Why ?

    • stred
      Posted July 13, 2016 at 6:50 am | Permalink

      So Nicola gets to join the EU instead of the UK, adopts the Euro and RBS moves to Edinburgh. Win Win.

  17. colliemum
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 6:09 am | Permalink

    I’ve not been commenting here for a long time – but needs must.

    You are a politician with huge experience, John, and I am sure you know how we, the electorate, feel about what has unfolded after the ‘Leave’ vote in what is nicely called the “Westminster Village”.
    It seems the denizens therein have even now not understood what that vote implies – and executing Brexit is only a part of it.

    So this is the question: will you and your colleagues who worked for Brexit be loyal to your constituents or to your ‘superiors’, i.e. your new PM and the ministers she’ll appoint?
    Thanks to the referendum campaign, the electorate has learned this it is they who are the sovereign, that it should be their representatives in the HoC who ought to work for them.
    They have spoken – and I do hope you’ll educate your colleagues that it can no longer be ‘business as usual’.

    • Chris
      Posted July 12, 2016 at 7:42 pm | Permalink

      Good to see you back, Colliemum.

  18. APL
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 6:14 am | Permalink

    JR: “allowing Theresa May to inherit the position.”

    Well, er, yes.

    Had I been a Tory party member Theresa May would most certainly not have been my first choice.

    But given your recent record on choosing leaders, I’m slightly reassured that your preferred candidate didn’t get chosen.

  19. Horatio McSherry
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 6:23 am | Permalink

    John, I trust you have let Mrs. May know you are available should she wish someone of your calibre in the treasury or Brexit team?

  20. Lifelogic
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 6:41 am | Permalink

    The more I see of the deeply unpleasant Angela Eagle (in floods of tears of otherwise) the more I warm to Corbyn. His economic policies would clearly be a disaster, but even Mrs May should be able to see him (or indeed the nasty Angela Eagle) off.

  21. oldtimer
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 6:45 am | Permalink

    It seems to me that divisions will remain within the Conservative party between the Brexiteers and the Remainiacs, partly for fundamental policy reasons possibly to be exacerbated by the negotiating strategy and personnel appointed to execute it and partly over the perceived conduct of Project Smear over recent days. Some among the Remainiacs will seek every opportunity to frustrate the Brexit process at every turn, aided and abetted by Labour, the SNP and the LibDems. If anything triggers an early election it will be that frustration of the Brexit process.

    That division is also evident in the country at large. The remarkable aspect of the referendum vote was the fact that it brought into the polling booths very many people who normally do not bother to vote because they believe it will make no difference. They voted for Leave in the referendum because they thought it would make a difference. If MPs do indeed frustrate the Brexit process then I expect this group to become very annoyed angry indeed. For them Brexit had better mean Brexit.

    In recent days we have had to become used to the unexpected and sudden turn of events. It takes no great stretch of the imagination to expect some realignment within British politics in which the old political order is destroyed and new alliances are formed. At the moment the Conservative party utters the words that people expect to hear about Brexit. It has yet to demonstrate that its actions will match those words.

  22. Lifelogic
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 6:48 am | Permalink

    This pro-EU leader will drive Brexiteers into the arms of Ukip say Norman Tebbit in the Telegraph today. He is probably right, he usually is. Unless T May reinvents herself very quickly and actually delivers Brexit.

  23. John Bracewell
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 6:55 am | Permalink

    ‘She says she will appoint a Brexiteer as Chief Negotiator.’

    It is rumoured that Heseltine is going to be the Chief Negotiator with Ken Clark as his deputy.

    • Know-dice
      Posted July 13, 2016 at 7:06 am | Permalink

      In which case will will be in Shengen and using the Euro before the end of the year…

      Irony?

  24. Cheshire Girl
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 6:58 am | Permalink

    If I was Andrea Leadsom, I would leave politics altogether – even if I was offered a place in the Cabinet. She is obviously a decent and capable woman, who should have no difficulty in getting a job outside politics – probably earning more than she does now.

    I would’nt want to work with those in power now. With ‘friends’ like those, you dont need any enemies!

    • Lifelogic
      Posted July 12, 2016 at 6:20 pm | Permalink

      Is this the dire Heseltine who wants to make sure that the popular Brexit vote “still has momentum after a delay”.

  25. agricola
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 7:02 am | Permalink

    She will be judged by what she does not what she says, much of which can be equivocal or open to interpretation. If she gets it wrong or tries to pull a fast one on democracy, she and her government will be toast. At the next election , forced or scheduled, a well organised UKIP will mop up much more support than last time and put an end to what looks like a well orchestrated cabal of vested interests.

  26. Cheshire Girl
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 7:10 am | Permalink

    There is an interesting piece by Norman Tebbit on the Daily Telegraph website, about his fears that UKIP will gain from all this.

    Once again, I apologise about not being able to give the link, but it is well worth a read, and might confirm some people s worst fears.

  27. Antisthenes
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 7:23 am | Permalink

    She says Brexit means Brexit” but does she mean it? I see your concerns regarding article 50 because Theresa May in collusion with other establishment stayers can use it to scupper Brexit. Even without intention of the stayers the EU can use it to scupper Brexit. So as you say to ensure proper Brexit and not EU light we need a strong Brexit team and to pass the necessary legislation to formalise Brexit.

    I believe Theresa will go for the standard article 50 approach she is not a person to take risks or think outside of the box. She wants to be PM but her approach will be the same as at the Home office hunker down for the easy life not make too many waves and accept mediocre because achieving anything else is beyond her.

    My assessment made be wrong and I may yet find she surprises me and she becomes a dynamic PM, Brexiteer and implements proper Conservative standards and values.

  28. Nigel
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 7:26 am | Permalink

    Brexit may mean Brexit, but I wonder if Mrs May’s definition of Brexit is the same as that of our host.

  29. Mike Stallard
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 7:27 am | Permalink

    “and aware that we do not have to do it according to the Treaty rules.”
    We have been drifting slowly towards ever closer Europe now since the 1970s. That is a very long time for the cancer of the EU integration to grow inside our country.
    People (lots of them above!) who want just to snip the cancer out are heading for real trouble. What we need is a quiet, confident person to be in charge who knows what they need to do and who is determined to do it come what may. (Even if s/he upsets Kirsty Wark or Ewan Davis).
    If we head for the EEA while we negotiate and then consider EFTA while we negotiate, we should be able to keep the blood supply flowing during the operation. the EU magnates want us to settle peacefully and to become Associate Members anyway while they get on with their own Eurozone integration.

  30. Spinflight
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 7:42 am | Permalink

    Come Guy Fawkes night I doubt anyone will be celebrating the fact that he was caught.

  31. Old Albion
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 7:48 am | Permalink

    I’m still of the opinion a stitch-up is afoot. The delay in invoking article 50. New party leader(s) and mutterings of a General election this Autumn.
    I get it, the Conservatives and Labour stand on a mandate which includes cancelling the referendum result and remaining in the EU.

  32. Brian Tomkinson
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 7:59 am | Permalink

    It would seem that no contingency plans were made by government for, what they clearly regarded as the unlikely outcome of, Brexit. A gross dereliction of duty. It would appear that the fall back position should we, the public, be so foolish as to vote against government advice was to keep Mrs May in the shadows playing little part in the referendum proceedings but clearly nailing her colours to the Remain mast. She then managed to be elected by MPs with the party membership not given the opportunity to participate directly. Mrs May says Brexit means Brexit. We shall see. Her record of achieving manifesto promises is not an encouraging precedent. There is a great deal of scepticism about the willingness of government to carry out the will of the British people as exercised in the EU referendum. Voices are regularly heard from politicians advocating all sorts of devices intended for no other purpose than to keep us in the EU.
    Whilst you will naturally want to be seen to be giving support to a new Prime Minister, we in the country are relying on you and your colleagues to ensure that our fears are not realised and that the will of the people is exercised without delay.

  33. hefner
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 8:02 am | Permalink

    Instead of seeing conspiracies everywhere, maybe might it be better to start thinking how the top Brexiteers (Johnson the clown, Gove the assassin, Leadsom the underqualified) can have been so poor, and how a MP with 29 years of Parliament experience can have been so deluded as to follow this bunch. A very intelligent guy certainly, but with, it seems, very little common sense.

  34. Denis Cooper
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 8:02 am | Permalink

    I don’t know how many more times I have to say this, and I don’t know why intelligent people have such difficulties in getting their heads round it, but the legal fact is that we cannot leave the EU through any act of domestic legislation.

    Why? Simply because we are not in the EU by virtue of any domestic legislation, but by virtue of the instruments of ratification of the EU treaties.

    The successive instruments of ratification of EU treaties which the UK government has deposited with the government of Italy, as the depositary state designated under the treaties, have been actions on the international plane not the national plane, diplomatic rather than domestic actions; for example, the instruments of ratification that Brown had deposited for the Lisbon Treaty in July 2008:

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7465665.stm

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7511281.stm

    It follows that those instruments of ratification can only be repealed through action taken by the government on the same international or diplomatic plane, not through any action taken by Parliament on the national or domestic plane.

    If you are not prepared to believe me on this perhaps you will believe Martin Howe QC and his colleagues at Lawyers For Britain:

    http://www.lawyersforbritain.org/brexit-referendum-binding.shtml

    “It is sometimes loosely said that Parliament has “ratified” a treaty when it passes an Act which gives effect to a treaty in the UK’s internal law. But this is inaccurate – Parliament enacts the necessary changes in the law and the Crown then ratifies the treaty under its prerogative powers. They are separate acts, one by Parliament the law-maker, and the other by the Crown exercising its international treaty powers.”

    Or perhaps you will accept these FCO internal guidelines on treaties:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/293976/Treaties_and_MoU_Guidance.pdf

    If you look in the glossary on page 26 you’ll find:

    “Ratification: follows signature and signifies the consent of a state to be bound by the treaty.”

    You’ll also find on page 6: “Ratification of treaties”

    “It is important to note that from the date a treaty enters into force for the UK, it places international obligations on the UK vis-a-vis the other party or parties. It is essential therefore that the UK is in a position to fulfil its obligations as from that date, and does not become legally bound until it has the necessary domestic powers to give effect to the provisions of the treaty; otherwise it will be in breach of its international obligations.”

    There is no choice to be made here between an action on the international plane and an action on the national plane, both are required. The choice is whether the action on the international plane should be service of the Article 50 notice so that we make an orderly withdrawal according to the agreed procedure, or it should be simple abrogation of the EU treaties leading to a disorderly withdrawal. I know which I prefer, and I want it done as soon as possible.

    • Mark B
      Posted July 12, 2016 at 6:57 pm | Permalink

      Dennis

      You say, and indeed prove, much of what I have been banging on about. Sadly, not only does our kind host choose not to listen, he even prevents my humble posts which I must confess do not have any links ( I know he does not like them), are of similar lengths as yours, and do not contain names or any other offending items other than that which I believe to be true.

      To date, no satisfactory explanation has been given as to why.

      But thank you anyway and thank you again for your considerable efforts to publish the facts.

    • Chris
      Posted July 12, 2016 at 7:43 pm | Permalink

      Thank you Denis. Perhaps the message will get through.

    • Tony Wakeling
      Posted July 12, 2016 at 9:48 pm | Permalink

      I have just read the article http://www.lawyersforbritain.org/brexit-referendum-binding.shtml. This is the most compelling opinion I have ever read. I commend to ALL who are interested enough to read JR’s Diary

  35. Turberville
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 8:04 am | Permalink

    Disgusted the way people in this Country have been treated, time to join UKIP

  36. Dioclese
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 8:30 am | Permalink

    Does anyone really know May’s attitude to the EU? Including Theresa May…

    • Lifelogic
      Posted July 12, 2016 at 6:23 pm | Permalink

      She is another “professional politician” like Cameron she has to be judged by her action not her vacuous words. We shall see (with he choice of ministers shorty) if she is another wrong’un. I suspect that she is, but perhaps she can reinvent herself!

  37. English Pensioner
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 8:43 am | Permalink

    Mrs May said “Brexit is Brexit”
    Her whole credibility will rest on whether she means this. Cameron lost his over “cast iron” promises which were never implemented, lets hope Mrs May doesn’t go the same way.

  38. f
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 8:49 am | Permalink

    so you think that the UK should break its treaty obligations? a good start for turning the country into a pariah

    • anon
      Posted July 12, 2016 at 10:50 pm | Permalink

      The people have decided to leave, we are not to be constrained unduly by treaties, or prior commitments made by others.

      Those that make them should have done so in good faith and with faithful representation. Perhaps even calling for an much earlier referendum.

      I suspect the problem is one of the legal professions making.

      The referendum has effectively already countermanded those laws.

  39. margaret
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 9:04 am | Permalink

    Living in a place.: Ramsbottom, which is notorious for repealing the corn laws, I would say that repealing the 1972 act would be indeed a better option .. I do not understand how they can work together ( this is for the political brains not mine).

    Somehow you get the feeling another leadership battle is being planned already for years to come.

    I still think that you would be better in the cabinet with a more upfront job than at present as you have certainly facilitated BREXIT and taken notice of the British peoples .( note Dennis ; ‘peoples’ ).

    Tomorrow David Cameron leaves and despite what many think , I think he has been a good Prime Minister , although he did get the general feeling wrong re Europe.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted July 12, 2016 at 6:32 pm | Permalink

      Almost the only good thing Cameron did was to give us a referendum and to make such a fist of renegotiation that he lost. He was a good presenter but without a working compass. You cannot polish a turd even if you are a good polisher.

      He should/would have won two good majorities had be put an anti-EU, low tax, real Conservative agenda to the country. Instead of the Modernising, EUphile, greencrap, tax borrow and piss down the drain, right on drivel.

      He only won the second election thanks to the dire Ed Milliband and the threat to the English of the dire SNP.

      A huge wasted opportunity he has an open goal!

  40. Chris S
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 9:16 am | Permalink

    The struggle witb the establishment and Parliament will be over their fixation with the single market which means FOM and Budget contributions, both of which we emphatically voted to end.

    I would go straight to WTO rules and wait for the French and Germans to take fright and offer a tariff free deal.

    I really can’t see it needing 2 years to negotiate given that we will be offering free trade which is more in their interest than ours. It should be a lot easier now that Merkel is determined to sideline Junkers and the commission. As for the Parliament, national interests should see it comply with any deal.

  41. Bert Young
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 9:29 am | Permalink

    Last words for a couple of weeks : Theresa would do well to recall the Bullock report and the strong message that industry sent to the Unions at that time . It would be a very retrograde step if she introduced employee representation on Boards . The CBI were adamant that Unions were not to have their day and won their case . Theresa’s ” One Nation ” statement is very misleading .
    I’m sorry that John did not publish my views on the 2 candidates the other day . I thought that comments from one who has much to do with the criteria and selection of top people over 25 years would have been useful .

  42. Peter Stroud
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 9:33 am | Permalink

    So the we in the rank and file of the party have been denied a vote on who should be our leader. I am not saying that the majority would have voted for the Brexit candidate, but she certainly would have been very well supported. Perhaps the rules could be changed to reduce considerably the time taken to elect, after the MPs have had their say.

  43. Colin watson
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 9:40 am | Permalink

    Everyone needs to get their positive heads on and stop second guessing and moaning. Mrs May has said what she is going to do so she needs support and encouragement to do so

  44. rk
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 9:45 am | Permalink

    Theresa May promises crack down on tax avoidance, industrial policy, workers on company boards, new bonds and borrowing to pay for infrastructure, increased housebuilding, fair taxation of businesses…

    Sorry but isn’t that the Ed Miliband pitch from 2015?

    Will the Tory party really back her on all that?

    • Lifelogic
      Posted July 12, 2016 at 6:51 pm | Permalink

      Will the Tory party really back her on all that?

      Probably as the current Conservative MPs are about 60% Libdims or just socialists.

    • a-tracy
      Posted July 13, 2016 at 8:28 am | Permalink

      She has no mandate this term that wasn’t already in the manifesto full stop. Tell her to get elected on her own desires for change next time and stick with what we were buying when we elected the Conservatives no more, no less.

  45. Christopher Hudson
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 9:50 am | Permalink

    What an amazing spectacle to note Red Len McLuskey play such a key role deciding the future of the Labour Party. They’re actually seeking his opinion. Amazing. Labour is quickly running out of reasons to exist in its present form. To my mind there are 3 factions, none of which could ever again get them power. There’s the metropolitan faction, the champagne socialists, the inner city and old mill towns of the north Asian vote, and the unions. Yikes. The predominantly white working class northern vote is currently seeking a new home.

  46. Bob
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 9:50 am | Permalink

    Surely the voters will now have seen through the Establishment’s shenanigans.
    This whole episode just reinforces my feeling that the Tories cannot be trusted.
    Too Machiavellian.
    Unless the police investigations into the 2015 election fraud force an early GE, I think the next opportunity to return to self-rule will be in 2020, by electing a party whose raison d’être is UK independence.

    You can fool some of the people some of the time…

  47. Anthony Makara
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 9:54 am | Permalink

    My fear is that Theresa May and friends will give lip service about Brexit while at the same time drawing out the withdrawal process and at the same time looking for add-ons and exceptions that will mean we will never fully leave the racket that is the EU. What’s more we know we cannot trust Theresa May to tackle the problem of unskilled Migrant Labour both from the EU and the wider world. While one in twenty working age people in our country are without work and over a million more trapped in part-time work, it makes no sense to allow unchecked Migrant Labour. We need to index-link unskilled Migrant Labour to levels of unemployment in the UK. The Australian Points system is too vague and won’t be sufficient to deal with this problem. Donald Trump in the United States has tapped into popular sentiment about unskilled migrant workers taking American jobs. We should respond to similar sentiments that our own people feel here and make sure that British Subjects who are ‘UK born’ get first option on unskilled jobs. Will Theresa May do that? It would be a popular move!

  48. Mark
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 9:54 am | Permalink

    Under Article 50 there is in fact no timetable for negotiations at all – the EU is simply obligated to negotiate and conclude a withdrawal agreement – a commitment that is only ended when the agreement is concluded. Therein lies a problem, since we know that negotiating the 35 chapters of EU policies can take forever, and we need the most important areas resolved far faster than that. The two year guillotine offers us a chance to escape from all our EU treaty obligations despite any lack of progress in the “timeless test” negotiations – and it also offers a poisoned opportunity to remain in the EU with the agreement of the other members (either temporarily or permanently), which is doubtless the route that ardent Europhiles will seize upon. The guillotine does not mark the end of negotiations.

    Negotiating tactics need to work towards banking elements of agreement to be implemented as interim measures once the two year guillotine expires, and prioritising the most important areas of mutual benefit. This would both dull the temptation to use the “can we stay?” option, and provide a far smoother transition on issues such as trade and migration. It is also likely to be preferred by most EU countries over a shock to their trade with the UK from applying tariffs etc.

    Negotiation outside the framework of Article 5o is probably preferable, so long as there is a strong team working on all aspects of it, and working with individual governments in the EU to encourage them to support sensible solutions, and so long as it is making progress. UDI is not an easy alternative to pursue.

    The choice of when to exercise Article 50 should consider that doing so triggers the formal process in the EU of appointing their negotiating team. With so much uncertainty in the Eurozone financial system, and so many elections due soon that are likely to throw up more Eurosceptical governments, there are some advantages to delay that might produce a more Brexit sympathetic team from the EU – provided of course that the UK team has the real resolve to deliver a sound exit arrangement.

  49. fedupsoutherner
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 9:57 am | Permalink

    I really cannot see why we would even want to stay in the EU in any shape or form when Italy, France, Germany, Netherlands and Sweden want to be given a referendum. They are all unhappy with what is going on. Italy is on the bring on bankruptcy and France is almost insolvent. Merkel just keeps letting all and sundry in putting more pressure on finances.

    Mrs May, get on with the job and do what the majority of the people voted for!

  50. bluedog
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 9:59 am | Permalink

    Stunned by the revolt of the masses, the political elites have assassinated their champion, Andrea Leadsom. Note that May will not call an election but will govern until 2020 using Cameron’s mandate. There is nothing more to be done until May goes through the motions of negotiating Brexit, or fails as a political leader.

    The Brexit negotiations will be a process that functions on two levels, the public, and the private. Bear in mind that the EU doesn’t want the UK to leave and the newly emerging leadership of all current British political parties (except UKIP) doesn’t want to leave either, but the British electorate does want to leave. What to do? The solution is to give the British electorate enough of what they want on a basis that can also be used to appease other increasingly fractious electorates, specifically those in France and Germany. Thus, a virtue is made out of necessity.

    Expect that all British negotiators will be Remainians despite assurances to the contrary. Security will be of paramount importance and leaks will not be tolerated. There will be much talking off the record behind closed doors.

    If the betrayal is of the degree that this writer anticipates, the only solution will be a complete re-ordering of British politics, with new parties evolving to reflect Leave and Remain. An important factor will be the extent to which Mrs May can stamp her authority on, and exercise command of, the House of Commons. If she proves not up to this task, we may be saved by a revolt within the Conservative Party against her weak leadership. In this event one might even expect Cameron to re-emerge as a leadership candidate.

    Failed Brexit leaders should prepare for this event and try to work out a cohesive strategy that may require their own ambitions to be put on hold for a while. Not easy, one concedes.

  51. graham1946
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 10:22 am | Permalink

    Para. 4 – ‘or whether to go for an early notification under article 50’

    Has she not already ruled this out by saying she may invoke it around New Year?

    I don’t call that ‘early’ . What’s wrong with the end of next week? Get the team lined up and away we go. How long does it take to say we want access to the market without cost, without freedom of movement and we make our own rules on which EU laws we want to use? If the answer in ‘non’ then simply walk away. These are the things we want an answer to right away, the minutiae so beloved of bureaucrats can follow. Let’s stop paying, that might concentrate a few EU minds.

    The only reason for delay is to water it all down. She may be God’s gift to the Tories, but we, the paying public simply don’t trust her. She’s achieved practically nothing in 6 years at the Home Office, other than cutting the Police Force, just ‘quietly getting on with the job’ – i.e. procrastinating. Still the immigration list goes up up very year after her ‘getting on with the job’.

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted July 13, 2016 at 12:49 pm | Permalink

      I don’t think she can do it now there are legal proceedings to stop her doing it.

  52. oldtimer
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 10:25 am | Permalink

    When Theresa May left No 10 this morning after the Cabinet meeting, I noticed she was driven away in a BMW 7 series, followed by her security in a BMW SUV. I wonder if she keeps this transportation after she becomes PM? It is difficult to see Angel Merkel being driven around in a Jaguar or a Range Rover.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted July 12, 2016 at 6:58 pm | Permalink

      Indeed. If she is sensible she will switch.

      Perhaps surprising that greencrap purveyor David Cameron (or indeed Prince Charles) did not both use a G wiz. But then these sorts are always “do as I say not as I do” people.

    • Bob
      Posted July 12, 2016 at 8:56 pm | Permalink

      Why aren’t the govt buying British?

      • bluedog
        Posted July 13, 2016 at 8:48 am | Permalink

        Are you able to name a British owned motor manufacturer who produces a car suitable to be a ministerial transport?

        • Bob
          Posted July 14, 2016 at 8:37 am | Permalink

          @bluedog
          Doesn’t have to be British owned, just British made.

  53. ferdinand
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 10:26 am | Permalink

    Something is wrong here. A friend worked very closely with Theresa May and said she would be certain to support Vote Leave as she was a hardened EU sceptic. Yet she supported Remain – or did she ? We shall have to judge by her actions but I trust she hasn’t fooled us all. Repeal of the 1972 Act seems the best course at present. Vote Leave supporters will be on tenterhooks for some time yet.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted July 12, 2016 at 7:00 pm | Permalink

      The remainers are all “reluctant remainers” now! Or just pathetic cameleon cowards perhaps!

  54. Phil Richmond
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 10:31 am | Permalink

    Again the fanatical pro-EU Tory establishment has stitched us voters up whilst what is left of the real conservatives stood meekly by. Seeing all those “Leave” Tory MPs going into full sycophant mode was just pathetic! Your party is a disgrace!
    We will still have free movement/ we will still have to pay the EU and we will still have their rules. Just watch!!
    Can someone point out the difference between Theresa May/Cameron and New Labour?

    Watch Anna Soubry get a promotion. John – Soubry is in your party then I’m not!

    • bluedog
      Posted July 13, 2016 at 8:51 am | Permalink

      Incredible to see that M/s Soubry has been tipped as Minister for Defence in a May govt. etc ed

  55. JoolsB
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 10:41 am | Permalink

    If John will allow me, anyone who hasn’t already done so, go to the Government petitions website and sign petition 133618 demanding the Government invoke article 50 immediately. They will still have two years to negotiate. Otherwise the longer the new Government delays on this, the more chance there is of them not invoking it at all especially as most of them were on the remain side.

    Really gutted Andrea Leadsom pulled out. I think she could have done it and would have made a much better PM than May ever will. Just hope May completely renews the cabinet with an equal number of Brexiters and please God don’t let the likes of those annoying women Anna Sourby and Amber Rudd or even Nicky Morgan be allowed anywhere near the cabinet table ever again.

    • graham1946
      Posted July 12, 2016 at 10:15 pm | Permalink

      I bet those three are in line for promotion.

      Her choice will reveal all about her intentions.

      Have signed the petition, which I see tonight is knocking on the door of 100,000.

  56. agricola
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 10:59 am | Permalink

    The BBC are at it again stating in a moving by-line that the EU subsidises British farming to the tune of 50%. This is black propaganda. It fails to point out that what British farmer get comes from UK tax payers. It just travels via Brussels.

  57. Excalibur
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 11:06 am | Permalink

    The ‘Daily Mail’ reports that Osborne is “making a pitch” for the post of Foreign Secretary in Theresa May’s government. Why don’t you “make a pitch” for the role of Chancellor, JR ?

    Reply Mrs May will make her own decisions. I doubt she will be influenced by self promotion in newspapers.

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted July 13, 2016 at 12:47 pm | Permalink

      On no account should Osborne be allowed anywhere near foreign affairs, and especially our dealings with the EU. Same as Hammond. Nor do I think that Osborne is a suitable person for the Home Office, so that means either he accepts demotion to a less senior post or he leaves the government altogether. Personally I would prefer to see the back of both of them along with Cameron.

  58. Denis Cooper
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 11:24 am | Permalink

    http://openeurope.org.uk/daily-shakeup/merkel-urges-britain-to-quickly-clarify-relationship-with-the-eu/

    “German Chancellor Angela Merkel yesterday called upon Britain to “quickly clarify how it wants to constitute its future relationship with the EU.””

    Apparently Chancellor Angela Merkel shares our doubts that Home Secretary Theresa May saying “Brexit means Brexit” provides a clear and irrevocable statement that Britain wants to constitute its future relationship with the EU from outside of the EU, and would prefer to have it in writing, let us say a letter from Prime Minister Theresa May to Donald Tusk, President of the European Council, copied to interested parties.

    “Dear Donald

    This is to notify you that the United Kingdom intends to withdraw from the European Union … ”

    But she cannot do that until the courts decide she has the right to do it, and if the judges decide otherwise that will be the end of all this nonsense about leaving the EU.

  59. Atlas
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 12:00 pm | Permalink

    With regard to the performance-to-date-not-really-questioned Mrs May, the proof will be in the eating. If I don’t see a goodly collection of Leavers in high office then I will know it was a stich-up.

  60. Auror
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 12:00 pm | Permalink

    JR, would you care to comment on why you take such a different view on Brexit matters from Dr. North and the Flexcit authors? They have consistently argued (convincingly in my view) that :

    a. There is no feasible alternative to leaving apart from via A50
    b. The settlement should be based on a EEA+ deal

    I think that going for a WTO based settlement is likely to be economically dangerous for the UK, whereas the EEA+ option is likely to be much safer.
    – > http://www.adamsmith.org/evolution-not-revolution
    This will still get us out of the EU, but without undermining the Brexit cause due to significant economic setbacks.

    Furthermore I think that you have thought too much of Brexit as an event which leads immediately to a new paradigm. I think we have to see this as unrealistic. The entanglement with the EU is too deep and too great. I think Brexit should instead be seen as a process that will take place over many years, perhaps even decades. Its time to see British self-governance as process of continuous development rather than a step-change : http://www.eureferendum.com/themarketsolution.pdf

    Reply I have often explained why. I do not accept the damage to trade argument. Crucial to winning the referendum was to end free movement and spend our own money. We cannot compromise on those issues.

    • Mark B
      Posted July 12, 2016 at 7:21 pm | Permalink

      Auror

      You are indeed correct. The government will of course take council on this issue. They will intern advise the government on the best course of action. I firmly believe it will be via the Article 50 route. But after that, who knows ?

      Chin up !

    • Chris
      Posted July 12, 2016 at 7:47 pm | Permalink

      Your answer is hugely reassuring, Mr Redwood. However, I think Theresa May will compromise on freedom of movement as she is surrounded by those who would ensure that. The true eurosceptics in the Conservative Party have been dealt what I consider to be a fatal blow. I sincerely hope I am wrong but I do not think that I am.

  61. M Davis
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 12:19 pm | Permalink

    I look forward to listening to the Treasury Select Committee tomorrow:

    13 July 2016 2:15 pm
    Oral Evidence Session
    The UK’s future economic relationship with the European Union
    View details
    Witness(es)

    Hosuk Lee-Makiyama, Director, European Centre for International Political Economy
    Shanker Singham, Director of Economic Policy and Prosperity Studies, Legatum Institute
    Richard North, Author
    Location

    The Wilson Room, Portcullis House

  62. mick
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 12:23 pm | Permalink

    Watched this morning on the BBC tim farron calling for a GE, then on the daily politics the lib/dem sal brinton calling for one as well, talk about sour grapes they must live off them, you have farron saying at the next GE they will campaign on getting back into the eu well good luck on that one, hopefully it will be the final nails in the lib/dem coffin and they are wipe out completley

    • Mark B
      Posted July 12, 2016 at 7:23 pm | Permalink

      Tim Farron (who is he by the way ?) better be careful about what he wishes for.

  63. ken moore
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 12:37 pm | Permalink

    Going….going……going…gone….
    It is indeed ‘curious’ that all brexit candidate’s have been eliminated and with it all hope of meaningfull change….
    Uncle Redwood…why didn’t you put your name forward for PM your time is now. Mrs May will drag the party further left and resist all attempts to leave the Eu. The establishment has got its way….

    Reply I did not stand for election as I judged there was too little support. Brexiteers spent most of the preparation time expecting Boris to run, as he is a very popular figure, and with Liam Fox determined to run, so it was difficult to see how to get any momentum into a third Brexiteer campaign. Brexiteers were trying to get Boris, Michael Gove and Andrea to offer a joint ticket. Boris was removed at the very last minute leaving little time to organise, with Andrea Leadsom wanting to run.

    • eeyore
      Posted July 12, 2016 at 6:33 pm | Permalink

      Many thanks for this explanation, Mr Redwood. Brief though your reply is, it’s the first authoritative insider statement I’ve seen about the Brexit leadership train crash. I hope that those who continue to excoriate Boris, Mrs Leadsom and the other leading Brexiteers will take note and learn something of the realities of parliamentary arithmetic.

      Perhaps one day, when you’ve nothing better to write about, you’ll treat us to the inside story on Mr Gove’s bizarre and suicidal brainstorm.

    • ken moore
      Posted July 13, 2016 at 1:00 pm | Permalink

      Thank you for a most interesting reply. By what reason or logic Andrea Leadsom was thought a better choice than the vastly more experienced brexiter such as yourself or even boris i will never know.
      I am disappointed that despite losing the argument,the Blair worshipping ‘modernising’ wing of the party have won again. Heath, major, Cameron..now may…what part of the failure of Europhile PM’s does the party not understand.

    • ken moore
      Posted July 13, 2016 at 1:11 pm | Permalink

      I do not want to live in mrs mays Britain that ‘works for everyone’.I want to live in a country that only works for people that respect a common culture and play by the rules. Not a country where the interests of minorities is elevated above those of the majority.
      We have seen how a traditional family life is now seen as a handicap to becoming pm…unless your from the left then its okay to mention your working class etc..The treatment of mrs Leadsom was disgusting and im sure the ‘grassroots’ of the party will be appalled. ..
      I hope uncle Redwood continues to speak up for people like me…the idea that a liberal left winger like May is laughable to those outside the metropolitan bubble…..

      • ken moore
        Posted July 13, 2016 at 1:15 pm | Permalink

        .the notion that a liberal left winger like mrs may can unite the conservative party and country is just laughable to those outside the metropolitan bubble…*correction

  64. CHRISTOPHER HOUSTON
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 12:40 pm | Permalink

    MPs are very intelligent and able. They fully understand the concept of Representative Parliamentary Democracy. They also understand that many people do not understand, or, appreciate that concept in exactly the way they do.

    BBC News today says a brick was thrown through the Constituency Office window of Ms Eagle inferring that the perpetrators were persons in support of Mr Corbyn. This was repeated on the Daily Politics BBC programme today.It and they did not mention the fact that Ms Eagle’s Constituency Party are very much against Ms Eagles’s behaviour; also, they have voted through a No Confidence motion of her. So, a brick has been thrown through the window where people who oppose Ms Eagle work.

    The BBC and media in general most certainly throughout the Referendum campaign have waged a war against the very idea of democracy. Again on BBC today the LibDem leader repeated his idea of the outcome of the Referendum as being immediately…. challengeable.

    What consequences, if any, short, medium and long-term do MPs believe wholesale misrepresentaion of the truth and the propagation of their own particular slant on Representative Parliamentary Democracy which I for one feel I fully understand, when the general population has quite a different view on it; namely, a tad more towards an extension of it? MPs and the media are in fact creating violence in our society. Notions of 300 Tory MPs choosing the leader of the Country and the 172 Labour MPs thinking they should take precedence over 300,000 Labour Party members has as a principle of governance caused the deaths of thousands if not millions of people in the last 100 years in Europe and the world.
    The British people are being very patient indeed. The historic British. The indigenous British, who are used to the acceptance of tyranny.
    In this age of social media and massive demographic change the onus is on MPs to progress in their own intelligent democratic terms from a dark era and readily facilitate such things as Referendums and,… honour them.

    • a-tracy
      Posted July 13, 2016 at 8:40 am | Permalink

      I thought this brick incident being blamed on Corbyn’s supporters was out of order too. The BBC are getting to quick to point their finger of blame, completely unsupported and without any evidence or proof. The Labour MPs need to ensure they are speaking for their electors and not just for their personal gain that sort of thing doesn’t go down very well, especially if they talk out of both sides of their mouth.

      • CHRISTOPHER HOUSTON
        Posted July 13, 2016 at 11:58 pm | Permalink

        a-tracy
        There is such a thing as vandalism too. Often one used to see glass bus shelters smashed but no-one jumped to the conclusion it was because someone at the behest of an opposition party was against the current Minister of Transport.
        In fact most young people have never heard of Ms Eagle; didn’t vote in the last General Election and didn’t vote in the Referendum nor were interested to do so.

  65. JGD
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 12:43 pm | Permalink

    It seems quite unbelieveable that we have the dreadful “nasty party” May as yet another Left-Liberal leader of the Conservative Party. As for the truly dreadful creatures prominent amongst her backers and eulogisers, and prominent too for the viciousness displayed towards Andrea Leadsom – Boles, Duncan, Soubry, Greening, Davidson…many of them deserve to be out of office for their vociferous opposition to the referendum result. Significantly, they are no longer so vociferous because in getting May foisted on us, they know that any exit will be so protracted as to allow their wrecking of the advantages Brexiters want.

  66. treacle
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 12:49 pm | Permalink

    I think we all know that the government won’t do any of these things — which is why Mr Redwood keeps spelling them out. We’ll end up technically outside the EU, but continuing to pay vast sums into it, and with open borders.

    • Mark B
      Posted July 12, 2016 at 7:32 pm | Permalink

      EU-Lite

  67. Roy Grainger
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 1:35 pm | Permalink

    We’ll be seeing statements like this a lot in the next 2 years as “highly unlikely” morphs into “very likely”. Osborne and co are playing the long game.

    “Ruth Davidson, who backed Remain, tells pol corrs 2nd EU referendum is “highly unlikely” but doesn’t rule it out “two years down the line”.

  68. mickc
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 2:17 pm | Permalink

    Norman Tebbit has it right in the Telegraph today. May will be an excellent recruiter for UKIP.

  69. Slim Jim
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 3:08 pm | Permalink

    I believe it all boils down to who Mrs. May installs in all the important ministries and positions. I am prepared to be open minded about her, as I don’t possess a crystal ball with a gloomy outlook. The key moment is when we trigger Article 50 and hopefully there can be no turning back then. I hope that she dispels all talk and hope of a second referendum and an early general election. After all, the Conservative manifesto promised us a referendum and it has been duly delivered. I’m still buzzing from the result!

    • Mark B
      Posted July 12, 2016 at 7:34 pm | Permalink

      There can be a turning back. Read section 5 of Art. 50

  70. Ian B
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 3:14 pm | Permalink

    I daresay it will be a long time before the true story of this astonishingly viscious “election” will come out in the memoirs of elder statesmen. But for now, I find it disturbing that the May campaign was organised by a non-parliamentary former SpAd who is the director of a lobbying company and who, the Daily Mail cheerfully informs us, will be given a “top job inside Number 10”. This seems like rather a conflict of interest to me.

    If our press still did investigative journalism, one would expect them to be asking hard questions. But they don’t, so they aren’t.

    It feels to me as if standards in public life have fallen even lower. It might be fun to watch such shenanigans in television dramas, but that does not mean that we should accept it in reality.

  71. Entrepreneur1973
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 3:46 pm | Permalink

    Very good post John, let’s hope this version of events is what actually transpires and not some dreadful Brexit-lite compromise.

  72. getahead
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 3:51 pm | Permalink

    John, I would be most surprised if Theresa May opts for the simpler route of repealing the 1972 Act. She is not a Brexiter and she will be looking to give the EU as many as concessions as possible. Will she even invoke Article 50? I have no faith in her.

  73. Rhys Jaggar
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 4:12 pm | Permalink

    It’s a shame this insightful column couldn’t be syndicated in some larger national dailies – no-one is discussing things at this level and they really should be.

    • Mark B
      Posted July 12, 2016 at 7:35 pm | Permalink

      Welcome

  74. ian
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 5:20 pm | Permalink

    Debate on the EU ref to take place on the 5th 0f sept 2016 in the HOC, nice one

  75. Roy Grainger
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 5:41 pm | Permalink

    Oh yes, here we go, May issuing announcements through her supporters

    “Philip Hammond has highlighted continuing tensions among senior Tories by suggesting the Brexit process could take at least six years to complete. “

  76. John Robertson
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 5:45 pm | Permalink

    I have a theory about where that ‘lost productivity’ has gone seeing as our economy has been growing.

    I also think the BoE OECD etc also know but don’t want to let on.

    We know we get over 300,000 transient workers from the EU that don’t stay. They come to the UK to do work and then return home for a period. Whilst here they share a bedsit to keep costs down and take their earnings back to their families in Easter Europe.

    As they have earned and contributed to the growth of the economy of course they themselves further contribute to the growth because they will also lace orders for products and so further increasing productivity.

    The productivity gap only occurs in the UK because they send their money on their house and family back in their home country. In the home country there is a productivity increase as the orders come in for new items. Yes a new porch to the house was ordered but it was ordered in an eastern European country.

  77. Chris
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 5:46 pm | Permalink

    UKIP has been flooded with membership applications in the last 24 hours. Article on Breitbart London, quoting the tweets of people who are deserting the Conservative Party. They are instructive as they do demonstrate clearly the lack of trust that May will deliver, and demonstrate the huge anger at the way the “establishment” appears to have sewn up the contest. The tweets also reveal that a lot of people were just hanging on to their Conservative membership in the hope that Leadsom would be elected. The Conservative Party would do well to take this on board, and to realise that if they do not deliver a Brexit, as opposed to a fudge, then their hold on power cannot be taken for granted.

    • Mark B
      Posted July 12, 2016 at 7:36 pm | Permalink

      Breitbart London is OK but it is very pro-UKIP. Pinch of salt needed.

  78. Sean
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 7:27 pm | Permalink

    It’s reported in the online Newspapers today 12/07/16
    Hammond says it will take six years to leave the EU Hell hole and money pit, is Hammond a lunatic thinking that we will stand by waiting six years, I’m not happy to wait six months.

  79. Ian B
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 8:28 pm | Permalink

    It is hard to avoid the perception, with discussion of “six years to leave” in the Commons, that there is some sort of betrayal underway. We voted to leave and expected it to be a matter of some urgency. Mrs May’s “social justice” agenda is all very interesting, but nobody voted for it and one would expect a focus on Brexit at the moment.

    It is hard to know what to do out here in the country. We can threaten to vote for other parties, but then risk electing a Labour shambles and that is not until 2020 anyway. We can lobby our MPs, who will dismiss us as “swivel eyed loons”. We can rant on the internet. We might imagine staging marches and the like, but let us be honest that is basically a left-wing monopoly and very hard to arrange unless you have extra-parliamentary structures to do the organising (which abound on the Left, but not on the non-Left). I doubt that Avaaz or 38Degrees are much interested in marching for Brexit.

    We know that Brexiteers are a minority in the Commons (and I daresay Lords) and there has just been an obvious freezing out of any committed Brexiteers from government.

    What can we do, John?

    • Chris
      Posted July 12, 2016 at 9:35 pm | Permalink

      Very valid questions, Ian B, and probably on a lot of people’s minds at the moment.

    • Caterpillar
      Posted July 12, 2016 at 10:44 pm | Permalink

      Ian,

      Yes 6 years seem frighteningly long, in the past a world war could be fought on these timescales. I think all this highlights is that Mrs May must not keep Mr Hammond in the cabinet. We will see Mrs May’s cabinet. (Stretching timescales beyond the next GE is in danger of being seen as purely political).

      I think the “social justice” angle is very interesting, clearly the country’s division of opinions during the referendum was somehow related to those who are benefitting (whether from capitalism, EU, globalisation, luck …) and those who are not. This is real and there are real policy directions and ethical considerations that do overlap with (I think rightfully) leaving the EU. My concern is that Mrs May has just quoted raw numbers without serious analysis, recall Mrs Soubury seemingly attacking fast-food when recognising obesity as being more likely in those in poverty, a complete inability to actually analyse the problem. I have generally been shocked at many politicians’ apparently limited ability to think analytically (at least as reported), in the same way that I am shocked that some senior representatives of the Bank of England display an emotional buy-in to one type of analysis. Anyway, I diverge, I think the social justice issues are highly relevant, as are future imaginings of the U.K., whilst I hope that Dr Redwood does here keep the focus on Brexit, I do hope that he also reveals more of his thoughts on some of these related undoubtedly related issues.

    • CHRISTOPHER HOUSTON
      Posted July 12, 2016 at 11:31 pm | Permalink

      Ian B:

      JR may give you an answer: JR may not. My answer to you is do precisely nothing.

      The referendum is over. You and the British people have conveyed a clear view to government. Only opportunists like the LibDem leader pretend they have cotton wool in their ears claiming the message was garbled.The view of The People is infinitely more clear than an Electoral vote: more clear than a demonstration be-lined by police. Clear to the police: clear to our armed services.

  80. Mick
    Posted July 12, 2016 at 9:57 pm | Permalink

    Mrs May had better not try and con or pull the wool over our eyes, because the great British public will not be fob off with nothing less than total disconnection form the eu with total control of who WE LET IN or any configuration you may come up with, we have had over 40 yrs to think about it, so she had better remember the British people have spoken and it is us who put the MP’s in Westminster and not the rich or the London area,but anybody who is north of Watford gap have had enough of Brussels we need OUR country back under OUR control, lib/lab/green/snp/ or Torie eu lovers will be toast at the next GENERAL ELECTION

  81. David
    Posted July 13, 2016 at 8:31 am | Permalink

    Mrs May has stated “Brexit means Brexit”, while almost in the same breath saying that if she becomes PM she won’t withdraw Britain from the ECHR. How can she reconcile the contradiction of enacting Brexit fully – whether by the 1972 Act or Article 50 (or both) – yet imply that Britain will still be subject to the ECHR?

    As an aside, if PM May does honour the democratic mandate of the people, will the UN’s Declaration of Human Rights become pre-eminant for Britain? (As you know, the UNDHR was ratified 8 years before the Treaty of Rome was signed.)

    Reply The ECHR has nothing to do with the EU and is a separate problem

  82. prog
    Posted July 13, 2016 at 10:23 am | Permalink

    Theresa May is the first major beneficiary of the referendum result. Without our majority vote she’d have had to have waited for up to c.4 years to secure the leadership, let alone get the keys to Downing Street (which won’t happen if she doesn’t deliver asap).

  83. prog
    Posted July 13, 2016 at 10:28 am | Permalink

    Should read – ”which won’t retain post next GE if she doesn’t deliver asap’

  84. William Knight
    Posted July 17, 2016 at 4:52 pm | Permalink

    I fear we will be stitched up over Brexit!

  • About John Redwood


    John Redwood won a free place at Kent College, Canterbury, and graduated from Magdalen College Oxford. He is a Distinguished fellow of All Souls, Oxford. A businessman by background, he has set up an investment management business, was both executive and non executive chairman of a quoted industrial PLC, and chaired a manufacturing company with factories in Birmingham, Chicago, India and China. He is the MP for Wokingham, first elected in 1987.

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