More good economic news turns voters to Brexit

So the second quarter saw good UK growth despite the gloom mongers, despite all the uncertainty about the vote, and despite the pro Brexit vote before the quarter end. Meanwhile a leading pharmaceutical company confirms a large UK investment programme to confound the scientific pundits who said we would lose that kind of thing.

The latest poll shows 43% for the pro Brexit Conservative party and 13 % for the pro Brexit UKIP party, a total of 56%. The Lib  Dems who have argued for a second referendum and staying in the EU languish on just 8 % and are not picking up votes from Labours current difficulties.

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68 Comments

  1. Posted July 27, 2016 at 1:56 pm | Permalink

    Hi John,

    It’s worth having a look at the ONS details. Unfortunately there was strong growth in April which became a decline in May and June as the referendum approached. For example, the Construction overall numbers for [April, May, June] are [2.8, -1.5, -1.0].

    Good news on pharmaceutical though, albeit it seems to be targeted at manufacturing rather than investment in the scientific research community.

    David

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/grossdomesticproductpreliminaryestimate/aprtojune2016

    • Posted July 27, 2016 at 6:20 pm | Permalink

      Yes the BBC were keen to point out this weakness at the end of the quarter. As the number is based on only 44% of the data which needs to be collected I don’t know why they bother to publish it as it is sure to be revised.

    • Posted July 27, 2016 at 6:36 pm | Permalink

      Don’t panic, it’s just the storm before the lull. It will be at least two more quarters, before the fog clears on Brexit.

  2. Posted July 27, 2016 at 2:00 pm | Permalink

    This is all well and good, but with May stalling tactics I can’t see us improvibg further. May needs to get her finger out and invoke article 50 already.
    Come on! Move it.

    • Posted July 27, 2016 at 9:16 pm | Permalink

      Matey, we have no trade negotiators. In the EU the Commission control it so we have none. I won’t go on about what to EU 600 trade negotiators are paid or have achieved. Maybe you could look up EU trade deals outside EU?

  3. Posted July 27, 2016 at 2:02 pm | Permalink

    It’s too early I think to read too much into things at the moment (except to listen to the arguments of experts in business and economics overall). The important thing to do at the moment is to discuss what plans the Brexiteers have or don’t have, and scrutinise each part to see whether it’s the best way forward for this country or not, and whether the Brexiteer talk is just ideological fantasy and that they’re really just trying to wing it.
    (If you went into a bank saying you have a great idea and lots of optimism for a business, and you also have lots of ability, but you can only offer a sketchy business plan, the bank would quickly show you the door).
    Brexit could turn out to be glorious or it could turn out to be the 21st century South Sea Bubble (at least). But until we have a detailed plan first, then a healthy, pragmatic, analytical approach is the only way forwards at this point (exact same if you were running a business).
    And if it turns out, after time, we’re heading more towards a South Sea Bubble, then Brexiteers need to be quick to admit that and offer solutions for a way out. And if it turns out, after some time, we’re heading more towards a glorious future (and it has to be glorious – or at least a significantly stronger economy to make all the hassle worth it), then remainers will have to admit they were wrong, and work even harder to make things even better).

    • Posted July 27, 2016 at 2:07 pm | Permalink

      (but the main point isn’t to admit who is right or wrong in the future, but that we have a detailed plan now about where we are going, and that this plan must be scrutinised as you would scrutinise any plan in business. Until Brexiteers do this, then they’re going to leave uncertainty in the minds of people in business, including investors, about where to invest their money, where to take their businesses, and so on).

      • Posted July 27, 2016 at 5:51 pm | Permalink

        Ed

        Mrs May is in charge, this is the simple fact no matter what David Davis or Liam Fox want, they could well have an opinion and may even have their say and give suggestions, but they will be under her instructions and directions.

        Hence the concern some of us have that we will not stick out or get the full benefit of leaving.

        Better to walk away, than agree a poor deal.

        • Posted July 27, 2016 at 9:02 pm | Permalink

          Alan,
          99% certain there isn’t going to be a deal (at least one where we come out better unless they offer us the 7 year emergency break thing). Either we accept single market with open borders for people or not. The EU has been quite clear. Why would they backtrack, when to do so could lead to the break-up of the EU which would cost far more to Germany, France and others than losing some trade with the UK (which they’ve already said would happen and they regret that but there’s nothing they can do if the UK chooses to leave – they’re being honest about this, whilst we seem to be in denial about this).
          ‘Better to walk away’ – don’t see how we can do that either. We got 1. big national debts to pay off 2. employment targets to meet 3. NHS bills to pay. And so on. How many more years can people in this country put up with austerity (and yet we still have to pay off the national debt)?
          This to me is just realpolitik pure and simple. (whilst there are many real benefits to being in the EU, although I strongly agree, the EU needs to be strongly reformed – that’s what we should be really debating and working on hard now – that hasn’t really happened at all – whilst remaining in the EU, and focusing on bringing down immigration from outside the EU, building up our economy, and then looking at leaving the EU if all of these things don’t work).

          • Posted July 29, 2016 at 11:09 am | Permalink

            Ed

            Afraid 40 years of trying to reform the EU and all that has happened is they have GAINED more control with Socialist group think.

            We really will be better off out of this very expensive club and just trade with them like any other non member Country.

            Does does not stop us having some co-operation which is of mutual benefit.

      • Posted July 27, 2016 at 5:53 pm | Permalink

        I am sure that the Brexiteers can count on your total support and encouragement knowing that you are standing right behind them…. 🙂

        zorro

        • Posted July 27, 2016 at 8:48 pm | Permalink

          If you went into a bank asking for a business loan but without a proper business plan and instead asked for their blind support and encouragement, they would quickly show you to the door.
          Businesses and the economies required detailed, objective, and comprehensive business plans. And plans that are well scrutinised.
          We’re still waiting for this detailed plan. Until we get it, then I’m not going to be persuaded by emotional blackmail, subjective arguments or anything else like that.

          • Posted July 28, 2016 at 2:09 pm | Permalink

            Banks are the moment would probably show you the door anyway, unless you did not need the money and met endless other security and other criteria.

            They are hopeless. RBS/Natwest now seem to want to charge you to deposit with them. Yet they are still only lending on absurdly restrictive and over priced terms if at all.

    • Posted July 27, 2016 at 5:19 pm | Permalink

      EM. You sound a bit upset – perhaps because you lost.

      It’s the government that has to decide what we do based on the result of the referendum.

      By Brexiteers, do you include Nigel Farage plus all UKIP members and leading figures such as George Galloway, Dennis Skinner and John Mann?

    • Posted July 27, 2016 at 6:22 pm | Permalink

      Carney doesn’t believe it is too early to say, he’s already said the Brexit “risks are crystallising” so it seems fair enough to trumpet any positive data.

      • Posted July 28, 2016 at 12:58 pm | Permalink

        TM needs to tear into Carney. He needs to forget about his old boss and all the propaganda and start promoting Britain as a healthy, stable economy, open for business.

    • Posted July 28, 2016 at 5:43 am | Permalink

      Ed Mahoney

      So it could be the case that we voted to Leave the EU but economists/business say No.

      “Ah. Brexit was fantasy land.”

      No.

      It was a vote to Leave the EU – so we leave the EU and make things work as best we can afterwards.

      The vote to Leave the EU wasn’t a vote to explore the feasability of Brexit. It was a vote to HAVE Brexit – so let’s get it done.

      The people have already taken on board that it will involve hardships but can see – rightly – that the EU is a disaster zone.

  4. Posted July 27, 2016 at 2:05 pm | Permalink

    The temptation must be great for TM to call an election. Is it possible as we now have fxed term parliaments?

    Labour has a serious problem they have a choice between incompetent Marxist Corbyn and an unprincipled I will offer stupid hard left policies to gain votes Oily Smith. The usual political bribery scam. Find out what most voters are panting for and offer it. The fact that honouring it is very costly for the rest of us escape them or more probably if it does not they do not care. At least Corbyn is not offering policies for votes he actually believes the garbage he spouts. Smith certainly deserves his nickname Oily.

    • Posted July 27, 2016 at 4:34 pm | Permalink

      Antisthenes

      We do not want a general election until we have left the EU properly.

      We do not want any more excuses for delay.

    • Posted July 27, 2016 at 5:39 pm | Permalink

      Mrs. May would be unwise. She has 4 years clear ahead of her, unless she really wants to renege on Brexit.

      It could well not be an ordinary election between Tory/Labour but one where the Remainers know that a tactical Labour win would bury the referendum. There were many millions who wanted to Remain and should they bite the bullet and vote Labour just this once they would win handsomely – far more voted Remain than voted Tory.

      • Posted July 28, 2016 at 5:47 am | Permalink

        She won’t have to renege on Brexit. All she has to do is endless can kicking.

        She never ‘reneged’ on controlling immigration – she became expert on can kicking, which is her forte’ and which is why she’s now in charge.

        Leadsome wasn’t rejected because of inexperience but because she’d have been too enthusiastic.

      • Posted July 28, 2016 at 6:40 am | Permalink

        A good point and an election will certainly add very much to the uncertainty about the effects of Brexit causing more turmoil in the markets.

        I am sure her decision to call an election will all hinge on Tory rebels. I am with the rebels but I would advise caution otherwise after having won the Brexit battle we may lose the Brexit war.

  5. Posted July 27, 2016 at 2:07 pm | Permalink

    What was that the remain side said about being ‘Stronger, safer and better off IN…

    I would feel a good deal safer if the open border with France and Germany was closed tomorrow….

  6. Posted July 27, 2016 at 2:10 pm | Permalink

    The readiness of so many countries to seeks a free trade agreement with the UK is encouraging. IIRC they already include Canada, Australia, New Zealand, the USA, China, Malaysia, India, Brazil and other Mercosur countries to name a few. This more and more quickly than I imagined before the referendum. These opportunities reinforce the case not to be tied to EU apron strings that require freedom of movement but preclude the ability of the UK to conclude it’s own free trade agreements.

    I also read that M Barnier is to represent the Commission in the UK-EU negotiations. He has the reputation of being an EU hard liner and anti UK and anti the Anglo-Saxon approach to capitalism. This should make for an interesting negotiation process both versus the UK and vis a vis the negotiating interests of the other EU member states.

    • Posted July 27, 2016 at 3:41 pm | Permalink

      M. Barnier is French; French farmers are admired for their ability to get their point of view across. Putin judged well how to punish the EU for cringing before the neocon scum who are trying to increase the temperature on Russia’s borders in furtherance of the Brzezinski doctrine. Much of the EU farm produce we purchase is heavily subsidised so it does not represent fair trade for us, neither is it produced to our standards, and we have no need to take it. The EU has everything to lose if they delude themselves into imagining during their sober moments that they have a winning hand.

      • Posted July 27, 2016 at 5:59 pm | Permalink

        forthurst. It always astounds me that we pay French farmers subsidies, as I understand it, to prevent cheaper food coming from parts of Africa and then impose tariffs on imports from Africa to ensure they do not undercut the French.

        We then, of course, send financial aid to parts of Africa because they are unable to make their own way in the world. The finances of the madhouse.

        • Posted July 28, 2016 at 1:02 pm | Permalink

          One of the most humane results of Brexit will be to finally provide African farmers with a ready market. British food prices will halve, and we can start to do business with Africa and stop feeling compelled to give handouts.

    • Posted July 27, 2016 at 6:24 pm | Permalink

      Barnier is irrelevant. Merkel will decide, if she’s still in power.

  7. Posted July 27, 2016 at 2:18 pm | Permalink

    John,

    To be honest I thought that by a majority, Conservative MPs were Remainers. I agree that ordinary party members are Leavers in the majority.

    Would your ‘repeal the 1972 Act’ Act actually get through the Commons and the Lords? – I thought the numbers were against that.

    As a Leaver myself, I await May’s Party Conference speech with great interest to see just what the Lady is about (given that she has kept a low profile until now)…

    • Posted July 28, 2016 at 5:17 am | Permalink

      Including Nicola Sturgeon in the Brexit talks seems a delaying tactic to me.

  8. Posted July 27, 2016 at 2:35 pm | Permalink

    Some of these jokers in the city and remain ceo’s are absolutely determined to have their recession and are ignoring these good figures

    • Posted July 27, 2016 at 4:12 pm | Permalink

      Correct ; They are more concerned with I told you so rather than you may be right.

      • Posted July 27, 2016 at 5:32 pm | Permalink

        ‘Correct ; They are more concerned with I told you so rather than you may be right’
        – It’s complete nonsense to say that people in the city and CEOs want a recession (for any reason). But to go on to argue that they want it in order to say ‘I told you so’ is double nonsense. Come on. Please get real on this issue.

        • Posted July 28, 2016 at 1:05 pm | Permalink

          Really? – OK, explain Carney’s recent announcements, and failure to mention our fast-recovering stock exchange?? In any other country, a quasi-government mouthpiece would be fired for presenting the situation as he does – it is not ‘showing independence’ or ‘reflecting on the risks’ – it is talking down.

        • Posted July 28, 2016 at 1:26 pm | Permalink

          Ed Mahony

          So please explain oh wise one why LLoyds Bank a UK based retail bank is closing branches in the UK retail bank sector and making 2,000 branch staff redundent whilst blaming it on Brexit. That is an operation that has virtually no business actaully impacted by whether we stay or go from EU. CEO’s of failing organisations will use any excuse to cover their incompetence. Its the same with Carney the Gov of BoE he’s not wrong per se he’s incompoetent at his job, thats all.

          • Posted July 28, 2016 at 2:22 pm | Permalink

            @libertarian; Quite but the opposite is also true, many of those those pushing Brexit are using any scraps of good news to suggest that there are no problems and implying that there will not be problems, indeed @lojolondon; did just that in the comment above yours – the FT100, 250 or what ever might be recovering, might be booming, but the FT index is just one of many indicators as to the nations economic health.

            How about we all, including the media, just take a step back and wait for Q3 & 4 results?

        • Posted July 29, 2016 at 8:04 pm | Permalink

          I assure you I am being real to quote your take on things you don’t agree with. I seem to remember CEO’s did very well out of the last recession whilst all and sundry suffered due to their management. It makes no difference to them and to assume any different is naive.

    • Posted July 28, 2016 at 12:01 pm | Permalink

      Lloyds bank has just announced the closure of a large number of branches and blamed this on Brexit, despite nothing changing much except the slightly lower pound. I have a current account and two savings accounts with Lloyds and unfortunately much of my savings tied up with their shares. I always thought their vastly overpaid Portuguese CEO was not worth his pay and will now move my savings elsewhere, especially as their terms have also changed for the worse and the interest rates were a joke.

      There is a new magazine out called the European in which Alistair Cambell, Clegg and some CEOs are arguing for an overturning of Brexit. I shall have a flick through and make a note of which firms I will not be using in future.

      • Posted July 28, 2016 at 4:14 pm | Permalink

        Agree with that. Regarding Campbell, Clegg and CEO’s, they do not seem to understand how vulnerable many MP’s now are, as so many now find themselves in constituencies that voted Leave. I think a list should be published so that we all know who they are at a glance. Many of them will need reminding at regular intervals should they think of overturning the referendum.

  9. Posted July 27, 2016 at 2:43 pm | Permalink

    Yet the BBC are quick to rush out the bad news at the same time. Kamal Ahmed “Take Care Over These Economic Figures”. Then the TUC straight under the headline “UK Workers Biggest Fall in Wages Among the World’s Richest Countries” HOW???? we’ve just vastly increased our Living wage pushing up differentials, the wage bill has gone up, social benefits have increased with workplace Pensions and Employer’s NI is still high, we’re to pay holiday pay if someone is sick for six months, 100% of the cost of statutory sick pay, 20% of the cost of Statutory maternity pay plus the holiday pay during the none attendance – plus the holiday pay of the replacement workers during sick or maternity periods, this is all affecting productivity and planning.

    The TUC and the Labour party pushed for flexible working rights and Part-time but now business is to blame for this happening? Well if someone only wants to do their job in half time there is only a vacancy for another half job! How do the TUC know what hours people are doing for their gross wage? If a significant number of people went on flexible terms to suit themselves and more 65+ workers are holding on to jobs whilst drawing their pensions but on part-time then their gross wages will reduce, when businesses complete their annual returns it doesn’t say hours worked? I’m getting mightily sick of reading how bad BAD businesses are when we have significantly improved workers packages over the past 20 years yet its never enough. We have lost business not because of Brexit but because of competitors who don’t employ any staff at all, so keep it up TUC and public sector organisation who use them to save money!

    If Polish wages went up by 23% why are they wanting to come here? “in the years to come Poland will be the largest beneficiary of the EU cohesion policy funds among all Member States” – “The European Union has allocated EUR 82.5 billion to our country over the 2014–2020” … so Poland becomes the beneficiary of our prudence and growth whilst our regions stagnate.

  10. Posted July 27, 2016 at 3:52 pm | Permalink

    Why is May arguing that we need to stay in the customs union. if we stay in it we are 100% in the EU.
    I hope you and your colleagues are going to revolt.

  11. Posted July 27, 2016 at 4:09 pm | Permalink

    Do not get seduced with poll figures, they follow events. The future of the Conservative party hangs in the balance of what May and her team achieve re Brexit. The simple act of reversing the 1972 Communities Act will show intent. Follow this by invoking Article 50 no later than January 2017. Failure tips the balance in favour of UKIP. If you are entering a battle, the troops need to know the objective and the means of achieving it.

    Junker’s placeman Michel Barnier should be left in no doubt as to intent. Put him on the backfoot by not even acknowledging his existense until after Article 50. Is he there to look after the interests of German industry and French agriculture or is he on an ego trip. Should he have a tissy fit, make sure the vested interests in the European nation states know that he is playing with their livelehoods. If they fail to control him, WTO rules are the fallback point and the EU is an even bigger looser.

    He may try to take out his ire on the City of London. If so let the bit players of the EU compete. If they wish to buck the market and stifle their own financial system, it is to their disadvantage.

    Your summer recess is long enough to sort out most of the Worlds problems. There is no excuse for dithering over brexit beyond Christmas.

    • Posted July 27, 2016 at 5:55 pm | Permalink

      agricola

      Agree with all of your points

  12. Posted July 27, 2016 at 4:10 pm | Permalink

    Good news – just seen the airport news – a new taxi-way at London City Airport approved!

    As Mr Grayling has managed to do the approval form for taxiways will he process the LHR/LGW runway approval forms next?

    • Posted July 27, 2016 at 6:27 pm | Permalink

      I assume the City airport news is preparing the way for a cancelling of LHR expansion. The voters of Maidenhead do not wish to be inconvenienced by more flights.

  13. Posted July 27, 2016 at 4:11 pm | Permalink

    Avoiding the facts again are we?

    In April industrial production jumped 2.1% month-on-month, but then dropped 0.5% in May and rose only 0.2% in June.

    Services also started the quarter strongly, rising 0.6% in April, before dropping 0.1% in May and growing by only 0.1% in June.

    *Sorry to copy the BBC but it seems relevant.

    • Posted July 28, 2016 at 8:58 am | Permalink

      So are you saying that the downturn was at the time of ‘Project Fear’? That would tie in nicely with those figures. It’s not what the BBC meant though!

  14. Posted July 27, 2016 at 4:23 pm | Permalink

    Looks like all the UK house building companies have seen their share prices shoot up today quite significantly. 6-7% .

    • Posted July 27, 2016 at 5:36 pm | Permalink

      How much had they fallen before? I had always thought these share prices (in a long-term investment, say, within a SIPP) had only to be looked at every few months, not every day. But I may be wrong..
      A lot of hay has been made discussing these recently on this blog.

      • Posted July 28, 2016 at 12:10 pm | Permalink

        Much of the value of the big housebuilders comes from their large land holdings. This value depends on the shortage of land with planning permission and the increasing population. Given that the May government has announced an uncalled for threat to migrants already here, referring to consultants and lawyers, dragging out the process for years and possibly negotiating a deal which still leaves no real control, it is likely there will be a surge in migration and even more pressure on land. They pull strings and the puppets are incompetent.

      • Posted July 28, 2016 at 1:38 pm | Permalink

        hefner

        Well I dont know about you but in my SIPP i keep a regular eye on share price movements, you never know when the right peak sell time arrives

  15. Posted July 27, 2016 at 4:30 pm | Permalink

    John,

    Excellent new, as many of us were hoping would be the case after a Brexit vote.

    This needs to be backed up by a Conservative government that believes in “small C” conservatism and ceases its charge to the centre-left trying to hoover up Labour votes.

  16. Posted July 27, 2016 at 5:00 pm | Permalink

    Let’s remember that the latest GDP figures are for April to June i.e. before the Brexit vote. Furthermore it seems the figures were boosted by a strong performance in April. May and June weren’t particularly good.

    I’d love to be wrong but I still think we’re going to get a marked slowdown over the coming months.

  17. Posted July 27, 2016 at 6:22 pm | Permalink

    BBC 6pm news reported a that sentiment remains negative on the economy, but they failed to confess their own part in pushing economic doom and gloom.

    Next item was Sopel in the U.S. campaigning for Hilary Clinton.

    Do you still pay the TV Licence Fee?
    I’m glad I don’t.

    • Posted July 27, 2016 at 9:30 pm | Permalink

      Nor me!

  18. Posted July 27, 2016 at 6:40 pm | Permalink

    The EU constitutes a third of the world market in Pharmaceuticals , it is a hugely important business for this country and it has a well-developed single market which, I gather, the Redwoods of this world would like us to leave. We are not to know what calculations have taken place at GSK but an investment of £275m from a Company with a revenue of £23bn is not obviously of great significance. (Of its 98,000 employees some 43,000 work within the EU and only 13,000 work in the UK from which 13% of its revenue derives …. )
    GSK already have manufacturing sites and R&D centres ….”in 36 countries and major R&D centres in the UK, USA, Spain, Belgium and China” Last year £6.45 bn revenue came from Europe but £8.222 came from the USA. Its hard to know what such a Company would make of Brexit its is already far more European than British .
    In general I have never thought that mega Companies would have much difficulty getting around non tarrif barriers , the logic of setting up a new Company in the UK or a small company must surely have disappeared .

    If the Conservative Party are the Brexit Party then I wonder if they might not merge with UKIP there being no further difference between them .

  19. Posted July 27, 2016 at 6:51 pm | Permalink

    Can we leave the customs union without triggering Article 50?

    If it’s yes and it enables us to go ahead with our own trade deals, we should move on it immediately. That will be a line in the sand and show The EU we are serious. It will also give Corbyn and Sturgeon plenty to think about.

  20. Posted July 27, 2016 at 8:06 pm | Permalink

    I was speaking today to a couple of people I had assumed to be brexiteers judging from conversations prior to the referendum. Turns out that project fear had got to them in the end. I think there must now be lots of people who gullibly surrendered to project fear but are pleased that a majority held tbeir nerve and did the right thing.

    • Posted July 27, 2016 at 9:16 pm | Permalink

      I seriously doubt that . I find I can gneerally tell a Brexiteer by a their clothes and demeanour . On the other hand there have been some sad shocks who looka little embarrased now

      • Posted July 28, 2016 at 10:05 pm | Permalink

        And I can generally tell a mugger by their clothes and demeanour – except I’m not allowed to display my prejudice whereas you are.

        Oppression and affirmative discrimination is part of the reason that people got so pissed off that they:

        – voted for UKIP MEPs

        – demanded a referendum

        – voted Leave in the referendum

        This could have been stopped at any time with a few minor adjustments by the ruling class but no; they had to keep rubbing our noses in it and the proof that we weren’t imagining it is in the contempt that oozes from Newmania’s every utterance.

    • Posted July 28, 2016 at 5:25 am | Permalink

      Yes. The vast majority of people I know are deeply unhappy with the EU but voted Remain in similar proportions to the referendum result.

      “My heart wants to Leave but my mind says Remain” they said on the eve of the vote.

      The EU has individuals divided, let alone nations ! Hardly a force for unity !

    • Posted July 28, 2016 at 1:40 pm | Permalink

      Androcles

      The numbers reported by Lord Ashcrofts analysis company is that 4% of leavers regret voting to leave & 3% of Remainers wish they had voted to leave so it almost balances out

  21. Posted July 27, 2016 at 9:10 pm | Permalink

    Our pension investment specialists say Brexit is short term and will have no real effect on long term.

    Kind off makes sense.

    Barnier I think is a good move for us. WTO is better than what we have and Barnier will push us to that and political leaders in EU to remove him.

  22. Posted July 27, 2016 at 9:55 pm | Permalink

    Mrs May is a nice lady who you would want to invite for tea and cakes but she is no Mrs Thatcher. I’m still not sure if she is really pro Brexit…..she is too afraid of upsetting the Scots, Irish, Italians ,French to actually do anything about it…

  23. Posted July 27, 2016 at 10:24 pm | Permalink

    John

    I’d be interested to know your views on how Brexit may affect the financial Services industry – particularly with respect to “passporting”.

    reply Read Pass the port which I posted last month

  24. Posted July 27, 2016 at 10:25 pm | Permalink

    (Thanks for letting me comment again. And no hard feelings to Brexiteers here. Remainers (but who believe in strong reform of the EU) like me need to stay really positive and try and make Brexit as successful as possible although, at same time, everyone needs to keep politicians on their toes, scrutinising everything regarding Brexit for the sake of this country – Auf wiedersehen ..)

  25. Posted July 28, 2016 at 11:16 am | Permalink

    Rational people know that prospects are best when we are fully out of the EU. The problem is that the penny hasn’t dropped with your Prime Minister.

    The people that she has visited and ‘reassured’ are all the wrong people – the SNP, Sinn Fein, the Mayor of London, the EC, Germany, France, Italy, Poland etc. It is impossible to avoid the conclusion that she intends us to join the EEA, which I regard as ratting on her promise.

  26. Posted July 29, 2016 at 12:23 pm | Permalink

    It is troubling that Theresa May is reported to have ‘slapped down’ the Trade minister Liam Fox for suggesting that the UK should not be part of the EU customs union post-brexit. Even the pro-EU think-tank Open Europe says it is a “no-brainer” to leave the customs union.

    http://openeurope.org.uk/today/blog/post-brexit-leaving-customs-union-no-brainer/

    Only one major country, Turkey, is part of the EU customs union while not being a member of the EU. Even EEA members like Norway or EFTA members like Switzerland are not part of the customs union. Should the UK be part of the customs union there would be free-trade only in industrial goods which would be advtangaeous for Germany’s exports to the UK but nothing for the UK’s service sector or indeed for Irish or French agricultural exports that would cross the land border in Northern Ireland. It is difficult to see how that would be a good solution for the UK. One also wonders why Theresa May would even create the post of international trade minister while wanting the UK to be part of a customs union in which Brussels would have the monopoly on all trade agreements entered into by that customs union.

    I hope you can take the new government to task on its worrying woolly-minded thinking about future trade relations. If the Prime Minister wants the UK to be part of the EU customs union one can have no hope that she will want to see the UK freed from the single market which Norway and Switzerland pay heavily to be part while outside the customs union.

  • About John Redwood


    John Redwood won a free place at Kent College, Canterbury, and graduated from Magdalen College Oxford. He is a Distinguished fellow of All Souls, Oxford. A businessman by background, he has set up an investment management business, was both executive and non executive chairman of a quoted industrial PLC, and chaired a manufacturing company with factories in Birmingham, Chicago, India and China. He is the MP for Wokingham, first elected in 1987.

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