UK GDP proves the pessimists wrong

So now it’s official. The UK grew at 2.3% in the year to end September. Growth continued at a good pace in the three months after the EU vote, contrary to most official forecasts and many private sector estimates. I am enjoying watching all those big Investment Banks and official bodies having to admit they got their 2016 forecasts very wrong. They are now writing the immediate sharp shock and recession out of their scripts, and accepting that the UK is likely to be the fastest growing advanced country economy this year. I stuck with the Treasury March budget 2% forecast, which looks pretty good now. The growth rate can tail off a bit in Q4 and my forecast will still be hit, and the UK will still be the fastest growing G7 economy.

The economic good news keeps coming in. This week I noticed the consultation from Hammerson for a £4.5bn investment in Brent Cross and Cricklewood. This will include a £1.4bn expansion of the Brent Cross shopping Centre, adding 1.4 million square feet of retail space to what they already have. This comes after the development of the two large Westfield London shopping centres in recent years. The plans have not yet been passed, but they are a big statement of confidence in the economy. I also caught up with the news that there is a contested planning application to put major concrete and concrete bloc capacity into the Bow East Goodyards site, to keep up with burgeoning demand for building materials. Southampton Port is seeking permission for a major expansion of their facilities at Dibsen.

The latest earnings figures show good growth in earnings around the whole country, with people on the lowest incomes getting the biggest percentage boost in recent months. This will help the retail sales and service sector figures. Nissan yesterday confirmed it will put two new models into its brilliant and highly competitive Sunderland plant.

Some of the forecasters want to remain pessimistic about next year, now shifting the bad news from this year. It is difficult to see why there should suddenly be a sharp downturn next year, given the growth in jobs, income, credit and money this year. Unless the UK authorities behave in a particularly damaging way to arrest the upwards progress of the economy, it looks as if there will be more growth next year. It could even be the case that construction, which was weak in the latest figures, picks up on the back of the various housebuilding and commercial development schemes now being examined by the main property investors and developers.

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171 Comments

  1. Lifelogic
    Posted October 28, 2016 at 5:35 am | Permalink

    Indeed and this despite the poor anti business decisions and expensive, white elephant vanity projects that the government has very foolishly approved. It also comes despite the lack of the bonfire of red tape, the cutting and simplifying of taxes, the pruning of bloated inept government, the scrapping of the climate change act, the lack of a sensible governor of the BoE, simpler employment laws, scrapping of greencrap grants and the relaxation of planning.

    When will May and Hammond actually do some of these sensible and hugely overdue things? We do not need damaging gender pay reporting, workers on boards and other such damaging lefty drivel. We need common sense proposals that actually make thing more efficient and that create more real jobs. We need to get the parasitic state sector off the backs of the productive.

    Please grow up a bit and get real Theresa! Or just leave and join the interventionist, tax borrow and waste, bloated state, red tape & greencrap pushers the Libdims!

    • Hope
      Posted October 28, 2016 at 7:52 am | Permalink

      But the media portrayed it as down from the 0.7 percent the previpus quarter.
      Today the govt will miss its £500,000,000 target to reclaim money from health tourism. Their answer, reduce the target for next year! This is also about preventing stopping foreigners from using our overstretched health service. Hunt is not up to the job. I visited hospital last week. First the ambulance was unable to collect me by doctor request after five hours suggesting I made my own way, secondly prescription £8.40 for each item, third vending machines in each waiting area filled with chocolate and crisps despite PR messages about obesity, fourth I lost count of the amount of foreign speaking people, fifth no one at reception even asked if the person was eligible for the health service. Simple production of UK health card before receiving treatment or prescription. Hunt must go.

      May needs to do something about mass immigration before considering Calais. The French are a civilised nation and able to provide care for the people there. Better still turn the boats around to stop dingy death traps, send the people to Germany where Merkel invited them, no sharing. We are full, no more.

      • Hope
        Posted October 28, 2016 at 7:56 am | Permalink

        Hammond was dull and down beat when interviewed. Again, is he up to the job.

        • Bob
          Posted October 28, 2016 at 12:40 pm | Permalink

          Hope

          “Hammond was dull and down beat when interviewed. Again, is he up to the job?”

          For such a critical role in a Brexit government there are a few that might be worse. Anna Sourby possibly?

        • Hope
          Posted October 28, 2016 at 1:41 pm | Permalink

          Reported today Hammond and May support Carney to help confidence with the markets! Have they lost leave of their senses or don hey want to keep the scaremongering for their own true interests to condition the minds of the public that the UK must stay a close member of the he EU.

          Good news the liar Blair wants an insurgence to keep the UK in the EU. A good reason as any to convince more people to leave.

        • getahead
          Posted October 28, 2016 at 7:09 pm | Permalink

          Hope I think you need a question mark in there.

          • getahead
            Posted October 28, 2016 at 7:31 pm | Permalink

            Delete the above.

      • Lifelogic
        Posted October 28, 2016 at 12:18 pm | Permalink

        In my experience the NHS often do not even bother to invoice (the people who should be paying) very often. Even when many might well have insurance to cover such bills anyway.

        But then the NHS cannot really run anything efficiently. We see every single day in the pointless deaths, delays, rationing and endless damage caused to thousands of people.

        Not even getting the money back for other EU governments either.

        • a-tracy
          Posted October 29, 2016 at 9:32 am | Permalink

          I wonder if the NHS hospital providing the treatment gets to keep and use the invoiced money? If not this needs to change right away. Perhaps if they individually realise this would help them to meet their staff costs ….

      • fedupsoutherner
        Posted October 28, 2016 at 12:32 pm | Permalink

        Charging foreigners for treatment will be difficult all the time we have doctors and nurses with the attitude of one I heard on the news this morning. She said it was not her job to retrieve money from patients and that treating them wherever they came from was her job. If someone is worried about their health then that is the priority and not making sure they pay for the service. You couldn’t make it up. Funny how they don’t have a problem on the continent. It’s not just reception that asks you if you can pay – it’s doctors in the local surgeries and even ambulance staff! I know from personal experience. Perhaps not everything should be blamed on Mr Hunt.

      • Anonymous
        Posted October 28, 2016 at 9:25 pm | Permalink

        The BBC need to be told what a ‘child’ is. They keep showing grown men and telling us they are children.

        This is utterly Orwellian.

      • Peter D Gardner
        Posted October 28, 2016 at 10:12 pm | Permalink

        Hope, can’t resist this although it is not John Redwood’s topic. The Australian health system is by no means perfect and creaks at the burden of advanced countries’ provisions but it works very much better than the NHS for four very simple reasons: patients pay (even though part or all is refunded) and may choose their doctors, surgeons, hospitals etc, access is restricted to those with a Medicare card – except emergencies, of course – and private health insurance is strongly encouraged, so nearly everyone has it. Lessons for UK from the colonies.

    • CHRISTOPHER HOUSTON
      Posted October 28, 2016 at 7:54 am | Permalink

      “…workers on boards..” sounds good but adds absolutely nothing. Here is the response from those left behind to do the work: “sigh”

      • Sir Joe Soap
        Posted October 28, 2016 at 11:49 am | Permalink

        It doesn’t even sound good. The way a worker gets to be on a Board is to own the company. The day your plumber gets a seat at the kitchen table to vote on which central heating system he should install at your house, and when, is the day this silly idea should come to fruition.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted October 28, 2016 at 8:04 am | Permalink

      I see that the Today programme has dug up (counter productive war on a blatant lie) Blair today to tell us all what a disaster Brexit way and how he still wants to subvert the will of the voters.

      I have my doubts that we will ever get out under remainer T May. She simply does not seem to have the ability, determination and sense needed to overcome the rather powerful forces for remain that still infest the BBC, the legal profession, the treasury, the state sector, academia, the luvvies, some protected big businesses and most of the political class.

      She seems more like another broken compass/interventionist of the Michael Hesseltine type to me, but with rather less ability.

      • Sir Joe Soap
        Posted October 28, 2016 at 11:50 am | Permalink

        Let’s see.
        Quiet determination is better than the Cameron “promise everything, deliver nothing” approach.
        The jury remains out on TMay

        • Lifelogic
          Posted October 29, 2016 at 2:20 am | Permalink

          Well her decisions so far have been fairly dire. HS2, Hinkley, the continuing green crap, workers on boards, gender pay reporting ….. We will see what Hammond comes up with in his autumn statement. If he fails to start to undo the countless Osborne insanities in the fiscal system then it will be very clear that this pair are just as dreadful as the people they replaced.

      • Mitchel
        Posted October 28, 2016 at 12:35 pm | Permalink

        The best thing would be to demolish some of the globalist/leftist institutionalised obstacles to progress,not just re Brexit but other issues implicit in the referendum vote,pour encourager les autres,but of that there is not the faintest sign of intent.Might help get the running-out-of-control-again deficit down too.

      • getahead
        Posted October 28, 2016 at 7:41 pm | Permalink

        Not sure that anyone could have less ability than Michael Heseltine, Lifelogic.

        I’m beginning to think that Theresa is going to see through Brexit.

        Whilst I have no affection for the bankers in the City, I appreciate that they provide a considerable addition to the country’s income. Continued banking passporting or whatever it is called, would help maintain that financial support.

    • getahead
      Posted October 28, 2016 at 7:47 pm | Permalink

      Far too sensible Logic.

  2. Brexit Facts4EU.org
    Posted October 28, 2016 at 5:36 am | Permalink

    Interesting information about construction, Mr Redwood. So much good news is coming in each week that it’s hard to keep up.

    We’re currently looking at the issue of the information being given to the British public, to the peoples of the EU, and about the stories appearing across the World’s media which influence the way people view ‘Brexit Britain’.

    We hope your readers will find these interesting and they should definitely visit our site again over the weekend for more provocative pieces.
    Best wishes,
    The facts4EU.org Team at http://facts4eu.org/news.shtml

  3. Roy Grainger
    Posted October 28, 2016 at 5:52 am | Permalink

    The Remoaners are furious at the Nissan news, it is clear they would have preferred Nissan to close with thousands of jobs lost. It is especially amusing to hear Corbyn moaning because the suspects promises on state aid have been given when he himself wants state aid for the steel industry and also wants mass nationalisation. Personally I think the government should promise to distribute any new EU tariffs on imports directly to exporters to pay new tariffs though John indicated lawyers say this would be illegal under WTO rules – can’t see why.

    • Hope
      Posted October 28, 2016 at 7:55 am | Permalink

      Still no preferential treatment in procurement of our own goods i.e. Steel.

      • Anonymous
        Posted October 28, 2016 at 9:28 pm | Permalink

        Nor preferential treatment for the production of armoured vehicles for the UK, contracted out to Germany.

    • Chris S
      Posted October 28, 2016 at 8:14 am | Permalink

      You cannot directly compensate businesses for tariffs but you can support exporting businesses in all sorts of other ways.

      I hope we will become the most aggressive export nation in the World with Government using every means possible to push trade. Especially using our Foreign Aid budget like the US does and as the Sec of State recently suggested.

    • Ed Mahony
      Posted October 28, 2016 at 8:18 am | Permalink

      ‘The Remoaners are furious at the Nissan news’

      – this is, to a degree, an exaggeration / not true (and please stop turning this into an ‘us versus them’ thing – this is all our country and we all want what’s best for it.) As a Remainer (looking for strong reform of the EU in particular over immigration), in last comments i said i was delighted with news. I want what’s best for this country – whatever works, whether Brexit or Remain, and to be as pragmatic as that as possible. No-one knows for sure what’s best. It’s still early days (we haven’t signed article 50, and we don’t know what deal Mrs May has made with Nissan and how much that will cost, and how our economy would be doing if we were still in the EU).
      If Brexiteers or Remainers can’t put up with challenge to their views then their views are very brittle and so deserve to be challenged even more.
      At the end of the day, it won’t be Brexiteers or Remainers or even the EU who ultimately decide the success of Brexit or not, but of foreign investors using the UK as a gateway into the EU, exporters, traders, and the pound sterling.

      • Chairman UK
        Posted October 28, 2016 at 12:14 pm | Permalink

        Remainers don’t get it. The debate is closed. Naturally closed. It only remains “open” because Parliament has The Speaker and not a Chair. Parliament is malfunctioning. It needs to be a Business meeting. The vote was taken. The result was Leave. Full Stop.

      • Denis Cooper
        Posted October 28, 2016 at 1:11 pm | Permalink

        “looking for strong reform of the EU in particular over immigration”

        Well, you can keep looking, but I suggest more in hope than expectation.

        One of the interesting developments over recent years is that some of the eastern European countries have been losing so many people that their governments have become worried about it. However that is unlikely to change anything much given that leading continental politicians are still dogmatically committed to the principle of free movement of persons, so much so they are prepared to accept economic losses in it defence.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted October 28, 2016 at 11:04 am | Permalink

      Lefties like Corbyn contradict themselves in almost every other sentence they utter, it is all about emotional appeals to envy and unfairness over reason. logic and what actually works.

      Either that or they are blatant hypocrites as in the private school for me but not for you mate approach. The Baroness Chakrabarti, Diane Abbott and others modes.

      Hypocrisy and warped logic is intrinsic to their envious, politics of envy, way of viewing of the World. Unfortunately the Tories are largely led by similar lefties too.

      • BeeCee
        Posted October 28, 2016 at 3:09 pm | Permalink

        They are all disciples of Blair the prophet.

        All speech and no action – and please remember to mention ‘modernisation’ in every sentence!

  4. Dame Rita Webb
    Posted October 28, 2016 at 6:01 am | Permalink

    How much of that increased GDP comes from an increased population?

    • Ian Wragg
      Posted October 28, 2016 at 7:11 am | Permalink

      There’s no actual increase in GDP per capita. The whole edifice is built on the premise of increasing the population.
      Only problem with this is tax takes don’t increase and welfare soars. The taxpayers fund the immigration.
      Public services are a shambles as they become overloaded.
      Last night I had dinner with a school teacher of 35 years who was packing up. She told me year on year the children know less as there are more and more non English speaking in the classroom and lessons advance at a snails pace.
      Only a small percentage of schools do well in affluent areas so she is doing private tuition.

      Reply GDP growth is considerably faster at 2.3% than population growth!

      • ian wragg
        Posted October 28, 2016 at 11:34 am | Permalink

        Then why is the benefit bill rising if we are so much better off??

        • acorn
          Posted October 28, 2016 at 3:43 pm | Permalink

          Population growth was 460,000 year on year for Q3 to 65,686,000. GDP rose by 2.3%. GDP per Head rose by 1.5%.

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted October 28, 2016 at 8:11 am | Permalink

      Well, a good point. The UK population growth rate is about 0.7% a year, which will be about a third of that 2% a year GDP growth rate, split roughly equally between net immigration and natural increase – although the rate of natural increase has been increased through past immigration tending to bring in disproportionately more young people to start families here. But as far as I know we haven’t yet had any official statistics on the rate of net immigration since June.

    • Mitchel
      Posted October 28, 2016 at 9:10 am | Permalink

      and increased debt-as we know the government has abandoned the deficit targets it was never going to meet.

  5. Tim L
    Posted October 28, 2016 at 6:12 am | Permalink

    John,

    I happend to stumble upon a definition of Munchausen syndrome by proxy. on the NHS Choices website (link provided below).

    I think we have been witnessing a new political variant.

    I haven’t thought of a name for it yet, maybe fellow posters could help?

    “Fabricated or induced illness (FII) is a rare form of child abuse. It occurs when a parent or carer, usually the child’s biological mother, exaggerates or deliberately causes symptoms of illness in the child. FII is also known as ‘Munchausen’s syndrome by proxy’.”

    http://www.nhs.uk/conditions/Fabricated-or-induced-illness/Pages/Introduction.aspx

    • Jerry
      Posted October 28, 2016 at 7:54 am | Permalink

      @Tim L; Well, let’s break the definition down a bit;

      “”a parent or carer, usually the child’s biological mother, exaggerates [symptoms]”

      Indeed Brexiteers might well consider Renainers keep exaggerates the nations symptoms, but…

      “or deliberately causes symptoms of illness in the child”

      …Renainers might well suggest that Brexiteers are doing the above to the nation.

      I don’t think the debate has been taken forward very much by your ‘physiological’ discovery, I wouldn’t bother writing a paper for publication in the Lancet!

      • James Matthews
        Posted October 28, 2016 at 2:11 pm | Permalink

        In the first case, the mother (remainder) invents or exaggerates symptoms in order that someone should seek to address them and thus provide something the mother desires. In this analogy the desire of the remainders is to prevent Brexit, so the analogy holds.

        In the second case the mother causes real symptoms for the same reason. Even if there were evidence of harm to the nation from Brexit (not readily apparent so far) that would by not be something desired by the brexiteers and in no way to their advantage. The analogy fails.

        So please proceed with you paper Tim. Might I suggest “Bliarism syndrome by proxy”, or perhaps “Late onset Osbornism” ?

        • Jerry
          Posted October 30, 2016 at 6:54 am | Permalink

          @James Matthews; “Even if there were evidence of harm to the nation from Brexit (not readily apparent so far) that would by not be something desired by the brexiteers”

          Except that the ‘mother’ will swear blind that she has not harmed and would never harm her own child…

          Many Brexiteers claim that they would not harm and have no wish to harm the UK economy in their efforts to get the political policies/regime they desire, appropriate or not. The analogy does not fail, if anything it is even more apt!

  6. Jerry
    Posted October 28, 2016 at 6:30 am | Permalink

    Three points; 1/. Brexit has not yet happened. 2/. There is likely to be a slight boost in GDP as the advantages of the GBP’s fall on thre FX markets work through the system before the disadvantages are felt. 3/. Whilst the Nissan news is good we have not yet actually seen any investment money spent, let’s hope that nothing happens between now and then to change any minds.

    On that last point, and the reported row during QT last night about government ‘Cheque books’, is anyone seriously suggesting that subsidies would be paid by the government, even more a Conservative one?! That doesn’t stop government making across the board fiscal changes that make it easier for companies to deal with possible tariffs. I do not say that as criticisms but lets not hide the fact.

    • Sir Joe Soap
      Posted October 28, 2016 at 7:18 am | Permalink

      So your idea is that we should hamper and discourage investment?
      Sounds like (more) sour grapes.

    • bratwurst
      Posted October 28, 2016 at 7:19 am | Permalink

      With regard to Nissan, by convincing them to invest in a post-Brexit UK Mrs May has sent the clearest signal that she intends to keep us in the Single Market. Outside the Single Market, the non-tariff barriers affecting exports to Europe would be such that Nissan would find it impossible to trade on the basis that it currently enjoys. And these barriers are far more significant and potentially more expense than any tariffs.
      Should cause a considerable amount of apoplexy on the tory right when this one sinks in.

      Reply Nissan has just become 17% more competitive thanks to the pound! Its investment on the continent that has just taken a knock.

      • Sir Joe Soap
        Posted October 28, 2016 at 11:55 am | Permalink

        Have you ever had problems buying a Swiss-made watch in the EU?

        • bratwurst
          Posted October 28, 2016 at 5:35 pm | Permalink

          Swiss watches? Irrelevant because they have already negotiated (over many years) regulatory compliance regimes and customs agreement. We will need more than 2 years to do that. Operation Stack – you ain’t seen nothing yet.

          • libertarian
            Posted October 29, 2016 at 7:06 pm | Permalink

            bratwurst

            Er you do know that we already comply with the regulatory compliance regime, you know having been a member for 40 odd years…!!!!

          • Jerry
            Posted October 30, 2016 at 7:12 am | Permalink

            @bratwurst; Also with UK border, passport and security checks on the UK side of the Channel for both ferry and Channel Tunnel traffic, with perhaps no more fenced off station platforms in Paris etc. for sole use by the Eurostar’s either…

            Can’t, won’t, happen people cry; of course it could, after all if the SNCF’s fleet of Eurostar’s are not used on CTRL traffic they can simply redeploy then on either domestic or EU27 traffic, something that can not happen on this side of the channel, HS1 would become a very expensive commuter line between Kent and London…

          • Jerry
            Posted October 30, 2016 at 2:01 pm | Permalink

            @libertarian; Yes and we have also been in the EEC/EU for the last 44 years too, but unlike Switzerland the UK is likely, if europhobes get their way, to ditch the prerequisite “Four freedoms” those regulatory compliance regimes now require in the eyes of eurocrats. Walter, you also seem to keep forgetting that Brexit for those same eurocrats is going to be as much about, and perhaps more so, irrational politics as it will rational economics.

      • Jerry
        Posted October 28, 2016 at 12:21 pm | Permalink

        @bratwurst; By suspicion is not centred around the Single Market, but post Brexit tax breaks, which once out of the EU the UK government will be free to enact how ever they wish.

        @JR reply; But many components will now cost more due to the lower GBP, many sectors are already seeing this if they work on a just in time bases for components etc. Then if we do not stay in the Single Market or no other trade deal is made with the EU27 much of that 17% ‘saving’ is going to be swallowed up in tariffs, both on any completed vehicles exported to the EU27 but also perhaps on import tariffs for components sourced from the EU27.

      • libertarian
        Posted October 28, 2016 at 4:19 pm | Permalink

        bratwurst

        Interesting that Nissan has shared their marketing intelligence with you about their future markets. Up until now the products made in Nissans factory in Sunderland have been made for the right hand drive market !!! They aren’t shipping them to Europe

        Its amazing how many people still do not understand that we live in a global world and not just a little backwater of Western Europe

        • bratwurst
          Posted October 28, 2016 at 8:49 pm | Permalink

          Check your facts libertarian. From the UK Nissan is selling vehicles worth £5.3 billion a year, selling 55 percent of it production to other European countries, putting their value at an estimated £2.9 billion.
          And yes, we do live in a global world – a fact not apparently recognised by little europeaners

          • libertarian
            Posted October 29, 2016 at 7:10 pm | Permalink

            bratwurst

            1) I said historically, the Nissan Duke previously manufactured in Sunderland was made for RH drive market

            2) They haven’t told you or me where the new models are destined for

            4) There are 44 European countries only 27 of which are in the EU

        • Jerry
          Posted October 29, 2016 at 7:43 am | Permalink

          @libertarian; As this decision is about future models and Nissan have said they want(ed) to expand production at their NMUK plant, it is reasonable to assume they do (did?) intend to produce pan European spec LHD vehicles there. Also this announcement is for only two models out of the five currently being built at NMUK, time will tell is what happens to the other product ranges. It is also nice to know that Nissan use (or will no longer use, after Brexit) any EU27 sourced components – yes I know they are imports but are we seriously suggesting that the UK government would not also impose such tariffs should the EU27 do so against us?

          Also Walter, as for a “little backwater of Western Europe”, indeed it might well be when talking about the whole world but when something like 56% of all the cars assembled in the UK being ‘exported’ to the LHD Western Europe market we are in effect talking about over half the world…

      • acorn
        Posted October 28, 2016 at 5:04 pm | Permalink

        I hate to tell you this but, the UK is probably, in Balance of Payment terms, still a net importer of motor vehicles. Nissan imports 60% of the components that it screws together in the UK for its European market. The major component manufacturers are in Japan; Germany; France and the USA. (Both my Jaguars are full of Ford components.)

        Nissan employs half as many as Ford in the UK: Ford doesn’t assemble cars in the UK, only engines and transmissions, that will stretch across global product ranges and model years, with a lot of UK Engineers doing the global R&D. I don’t hear of any sweetheart deals for Ford yet!

        The UK hasn’t built a car with a 100% UK components since the 1970s. Those were the days when the vehicle you bought, started to fall apart the day after you took it from the dealer.

        Brexiteers should wake up and smell the coffee, as they say. They must come to terms with the fact that anything that works in the UK, is already foreign owned. The “delusions of grandeur” voiced by UK amateur ministers; that is, the Brexit UK, becoming a “world leader” in this that and the other, should be taken with a very large pinch of salt.

        • Jerry
          Posted October 29, 2016 at 7:56 am | Permalink

          @acorn; Whilst broadly agreeing with what you say I must take you to task on one comment;

          “[the 1970s] Those were the days when the vehicle you bought, started to fall apart the day after you took it from the dealer.”

          Indeed it was if you did not by a UK made car, unless it was in the executive class such Mercedes-Benz or the larger Citroen. Don’t even get me started on the cheap-as-chips but rubbish Japanese offerings of the day.

          • libertarian
            Posted October 29, 2016 at 7:25 pm | Permalink

            Jerry

            Out of interest what car did you own in the 1970’s ?

        • libertarian
          Posted October 29, 2016 at 8:56 am | Permalink

          acorn

          Sorry your pompous post overlooks the fact that most Brexiters I know are globalists in terms of operating across the world precisely because we know that most industries are global in nature VW builds cars in Mexico, BMW in the UK etc etc

          You really ought to do some research though because the UK does in fact lead the world in a number of technologies and industries. Remainers need to wake up and smell the coffee and realise that the EU is a dead duck precisely for the reasons you state. Operating a protection racket single market customs union is ridiculous in a globally sourced world

          • acorn
            Posted October 31, 2016 at 8:05 am | Permalink

            German vehicle manufacturers source components from the factories they built in the six ex-Soviet States on the EU eastern border; “ridiculous in a globally sourced world” you say.

            Hence, Germans have made the most out of “… a protection racket single market customs union”. But they sell their stuff globally as the 29th EU member state, with a currency that is pegged down by Club-Med members. That’s a win win in my book.

    • Roy Grainger
      Posted October 28, 2016 at 7:38 am | Permalink

      So according to your Point 1 the fall in the value of the £ can’t be ascribed to Brexit. Interesting view.

      • Jerry
        Posted October 28, 2016 at 12:27 pm | Permalink

        @Roy Grainger; The fall in the value of GBP can not be attributed to Brexit, but it can be attributed to concerns about the result of the referendum – if those concerns are justified is a totally separate argument though.

    • Anonymous
      Posted October 28, 2016 at 7:39 am | Permalink

      The situation is certainly not as predicted by Remain.

      There are actually things more important than the economy to the British people.

    • Edward2
      Posted October 28, 2016 at 8:25 am | Permalink

      The importance of the latest GDP quarter figures now published, is that they cover the period after the vote.
      A period when Remainers endlessly predicted doom and disaster would happen straightaway.

      These figures prove these predictions were wrong.

      • Jerry
        Posted October 28, 2016 at 12:34 pm | Permalink

        @Edward2; What do you not understand about the fact that not all the costs that a fall in the GBP will bring have worked through the system, if the next set of GDP quarter figures [1] show an upward trend (and inflation remains steady) then you might have a point but nothing has yet been proved either way.

        [1] always assuming external events, such as the USA elections or the war in Syria, do not cause world markets to fluctuate widely

        • Edward2
          Posted October 28, 2016 at 3:50 pm | Permalink

          Oh sorry Jerry
          Your understanding is of course superior to official GDP figures covering a period of time when all the Remain campaign endlessly said would result in negative figures.
          Odd how they are all positive.

    • libertarian
      Posted October 28, 2016 at 8:49 am | Permalink

      Jerry

      Blimey Jerry you really are trying hard to find negatives aren’t you?

      I hope you realise that life throws up challenges and yes before Nissan opens new production lines or before Google starts work refurbishing Battersea Power Station or before Glaxo and Adobe spend their money on their projects things may happen to cause a rethink. A hurricane, a nuclear accident, a terrorist incident, The EU crashing etc etc obviously all now caused by Brexit should they occur.

      The simple facts are

      Remain and the government of the day told us unequivocally that immediately following a leave vote the economy would crash….. They were WRONG ……again

      They told us that the City banks would all up and relocate to Europe….. they were WRONG… again

      They told us that industrial firms would move their production to Europe…. they were WRONG…. again

      The leave side predicted that the pound would go down following a leave vote ( maybe it went down by more than expected, but even with a flash crash as part of the problem, the pound is stabilising quickly)

      I never watch QT as is a very poor programme but you couldn’t make it up. Remainers only have 2 reasons to support the EU, 1) They use pork barrel cheque book funding , yet now they squeal if they think the UK govt might do the same. 2) The single market. The SM is a customs Union it is a protection racket . By removing ourselves entirely we can negotiate free trade and as you say manage tariffs and support business in any way we like in the UK…. Nothing wrong with that

      • Jerry
        Posted October 29, 2016 at 7:40 pm | Permalink

        @libertarian; Nothing has happened yet (apart from turmoil on on the FX markets) because business knows that A50 has not yet been triggered, never mind Brexit actually happening, and that they have 12 to 24 month to consider and plan their reaction – if any. Just as (probably most) companies in the UK are planning for life outside of the EU there will some who are at the very minimum assessing their futures here in the UK, and because much will depend on what agreements are reached and assurances (from both the UK and the EU) are made during the A50 process they will not necessarily action any decision until then.

        Nor can the UK “support business in any way we like” after Brexit either, again you have not checked your facts Walter, there are WTO rules to keep, otherwise we will not be in the WTO either!

    • a-tracy
      Posted October 28, 2016 at 9:37 am | Permalink

      Perhaps we could just drop VAT on cars afterwards Jerry, the incoming tariffs on imports should make up for any governmental losses. Everyone talks about Germany’s motor industry but France exports lots of Citroens and Renaults to us too.

      • Jerry
        Posted October 28, 2016 at 12:42 pm | Permalink

        @a-tracy; I’m more worried about the exports, a drop in UK purchase tax will not affect those vehicles, it would be nice to thing that those who would have bought EU27 motor vehicles will (post actual Brexit) buy UK built models but will they, or will they just buy Far Eastern or perhaps US and Australian made vehicles should then become available to make up for more expensive EU27 models? Something like 56% of all cars made in the UK are ‘exported’ to the EU27, that is a lot of cars us British would have to buy!

        • libertarian
          Posted October 28, 2016 at 4:29 pm | Permalink

          Jerry

          Last year ( our best ever) The UK exported 700,000 cars to Europe , thats the 44 countries that make up the continent not just the EU members. Its our biggest single market currently, however our 2nd largest market USA grew by 25% in exports in the last year.

          People will buy cars based on price/quality/cost of ownership and in some cases prestige/luxury .

          • Jerry
            Posted October 29, 2016 at 8:30 am | Permalink

            @libertarian; Indeed, and thank you for backing up my comments! Ten percent or more [1] on the showroom price (should WTO tariffs be applied post Brexit) will simply make our car industry less competitive – because of what that will do to the price/quality/cost of ownership buyers real world equation you talk of. Try actually understanding the issue Walter, rather than just quoting juicy capitalist or pro-Brexit sound-bites from those briefing notes…

            [1] 10% import into the EU27 plus at least 10% on any EU27 sourced components imported into the UK to be assembled into the complete vehicle

        • a-tracy
          Posted October 28, 2016 at 8:37 pm | Permalink

          You’d think we’d be making hay at the moment with the £ being so low, car exports must be an easier sell.

          We could ensure all mobility cars are uk made, all governmental cars etc. I don’t know much about our car export market, who are we exporting to in the EU 27? If our markets are threatened by the EU27 to teach us a lesson then things will change and new markets will open up for us too which we would have to investigate. All long term business owners have to change their customer bases over the years and look for new markets or you die.

          UK businesses will have to step up sales and I’m confident they will. Necessity is the mother of all invention.

          • Jerry
            Posted October 29, 2016 at 7:54 pm | Permalink

            @a-tracy; The problem is that apart from Toyota and Honda all other car companies with a manufacturing presence in the UK have ties to EU27 automotive companies, even Ford and Vauxhall (GM) presences in the UK are these days controlled from the EU27. Be careful of what you wish for, you might end up cutting no ones nose off apart from your own.

    • oldtimer
      Posted October 28, 2016 at 10:05 am | Permalink

      True. But by the time Brexit is signed, sealed and delivered, and its actual material consequences are realised, it will be several years down the road. By then no one will have much of a clue what it all amounted to and how other future, some unforseen, events have influenced business thinking and action. For Nissan that will include how well it adapts to future changes in how cars are powered and controlled relative to its competition. Even the biggest companies can screw things up – witness VW and dieselgate.

  7. Brigham
    Posted October 28, 2016 at 6:32 am | Permalink

    John, you have got all your facts wrong. The BBC is still proving, that, not only is Britain in the doldrums, but the people who voted out, were too stupid to understand what they were voting for.

    • Bob
      Posted October 28, 2016 at 7:18 am | Permalink

      The Brussels Broadcasting Corporation’s disappointment over Nissan’s decision is palpable. Something really needs to be done about their Licence Fee funding.

    • Ian Wragg
      Posted October 28, 2016 at 7:36 am | Permalink

      The BBC represents all that is bad in Britain on. Giving credence to the likes of Gandolf and Lizzard spouting their nonsense.
      Take a diametrically opposite view and you’ll be about right.

    • Roy Grainger
      Posted October 28, 2016 at 7:42 am | Permalink

      The very first line in a BBC report I heard on the latest news was “GDP falls …..” (They’d spotted that last Q GDP was lower than the previous Q GDP). It’s laughable.

      Just leaving aside the Brexit debate entirely I think the economists (including BoE) should really try to investigate why their predictions have been so dismally inaccurate, they are destroying whatever credibility they have – the situation is akin to the polling organisations who erred so badly at the last GE but at least had the good grace to recognise this and investigate.

    • Jerry
      Posted October 28, 2016 at 7:59 am | Permalink

      @Brigham; I have no idea if you posted that in jest or what but your last sixteen words have far to much truth in them for comfort, what ever side of the debate one is on…

      • Brigham
        Posted October 28, 2016 at 1:18 pm | Permalink

        @Jerry
        I have written to the PM asking her to initiate article 50 as soon as possible, like now, as I am 82 and want to see us out of Europe completely before I die. If I were in charge I would shut down the BBC and sack all these leftie luvvies.

    • Anonymous
      Posted October 28, 2016 at 8:17 am | Permalink

      Brigham – You’re on a forum largely made up of Brexit voters. I wouldn’t call any contributor here stupid, except (name left out ed) of course. There are people here more informed than I who will be able to educate you.

      Saying ‘stupid’ does not cut it here. Bring us facts and cogent argument and we’ll debate with you.

      By calling your opponents ‘stupid’ you’ve lost the argument already.

      *Newmania (can be criticised ed) not for his beliefs about the EU (which I respect) but his sneering contempt for ordinary people and ……… Peter van Leeuwen does this much better and demonstrates master classes in concealed weaponry.

      • Anonymous
        Posted October 28, 2016 at 12:29 pm | Permalink

        For goodness sakes.

        If only you’d edit Newmania so rigorously.

      • Brigham
        Posted October 28, 2016 at 1:19 pm | Permalink

        Anonymous,Try reading my post again.

        • Anonymous
          Posted October 28, 2016 at 3:57 pm | Permalink

          Got you, Brigham.

          Sorry!

    • Pete Stroud
      Posted October 28, 2016 at 8:54 am | Permalink

      So true. The ‘completely unbiased’ BBC Today programme gave Blair about twenty minutes of near uninterrupted time to spout his anti Brexit views, on the back of the current good news for our car industry.

    • stred
      Posted October 28, 2016 at 9:16 am | Permalink

      BBC News was actually quite positive yesterday about Nissan and growth. Perhaps the journalist’s controllers had not had time to decide the best line to take on this disturbing news. Fortunately, John Snow on Ch4 was magnificently sneering, with an inference that there must have been some skulduggery behind the scenes. Their efforts to get employees outside the factory to spill the beans were unsuccessful.

      No doubt the grants to Nissan to develop their little Leaf electric car will be highlighted, even though this was arranged before the referendum. Perhaps HMG has told them that they will be banning the sale of carbon- fuelled cars like Germany and Holland so that they can sell lots of Leaves here if they stay. Also, rather than lose all our vehicle industry, we could claim all our previous subsidies back, nationalise the factories and only sell cars made here. As these cars are made elsewhere in the world, the parts will be available from outside the EU and could be free of tariffs.Lots of possibilities.

      Channel 4 news editors will need counselling.

    • Mockbeggar
      Posted October 28, 2016 at 9:24 am | Permalink

      This was reinforced on the Today programme this morning when the prime interview slot was given over to Blair. He has obviously been reading Dame Lucy’s memo because, not only has the country made the wrong decision and they will soon change their minds when they realise just how awful Brexit will be, but that the negotiations will be terribly complex and will take much more than two years to negotiate so we better go back to Brussels and seek forgiveness like the Prodigal Son.

    • Antisthenes
      Posted October 28, 2016 at 10:47 am | Permalink

      Indeed only the intellectually blessed know what is best for us. Progressives, feminists, environmentalists, EU federalists, socialists the list is long. All with causes and ideologies that they know if embraced will benefit mankind in a way never thought possible. None without merit in the theory but all found wanting in the practice.

      The rest of us intellectually challenged. Free marketeers, Conservatives, freedom loving self determinists who have never needed causes and ideologies to guide us have muddled along. Over the millennia without aid of theory but by innovation and enterprise have built systems and institutions that have and do benefit mankind that was thought by each previous generation not to be possible. It has not been without it’s challenges and imperfections but is has been proven hugely successful despite the intellectually blessed’s interference.

      Sometimes that interference has proved helpful but more often it has not it has been harmfull and that to large numbers of us. Fortunately the intellectually challenged have come along and rescued the situation. Unfortunately it is a never ending cycle as what the intellectually challenged puts in place the intellectually blessed comes along interfering harmfully again.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted October 28, 2016 at 11:08 am | Permalink

      Indeed the same people who are forced to pay the licence tax to fund this endless “remain” propaganda (and of course the climate alarmism, open door immigration and high taxes/ every bigger state agenda).

      Pay your BBC licence fee tax and we will use the money to tell you how to think!

      • Jerry
        Posted October 28, 2016 at 12:57 pm | Permalink

        @LL; “Indeed the same people who are forced to pay the licence tax to fund this endless “remain” propaganda”

        How many more times, no one is being forced to pay the TVL fee, there is no law that states you have to watch TV, whilst the radio licence was abolished in c. 1971, do try and keep up to date!

        But you do have a point, after all both ITN and Sky News are funded, in some proportion, via the checkouts in our local shops etc. – buy your ‘daily bread’ from us and we will use the money to tell you how to think!

        • Edward2
          Posted October 28, 2016 at 3:53 pm | Permalink

          That has to be the most pedantic argument Jerry
          It’s like saying VAT is optional because you don’t have to buy anything with VAT on.
          Or breathing in.

        • libertarian
          Posted October 28, 2016 at 4:34 pm | Permalink

          Jerry

          How many times do you have to be told that Sky is funded by subscription ( a choice) and ITV by product advertising( a choice in what you buy) or do you really believe people only buy food so that they can keep watching telly?

          • Jerry
            Posted October 29, 2016 at 8:16 am | Permalink

            @Edward2; Thank you! Your comment actually reinforces my point, with the BBC you have a choice, unlike funding commercial TV channels, the TV fee is akin to VED (no TV, no need to pay it, no car, no need to pay it) whilst the other broadcasters funding methods are akin to VAT, no escape.

            @libertarian; Except that Sky also sell air-time and segment/programme sponsorship to advertisers, duh! If only Sky was solely a subscription broadcaster…

          • Edward2
            Posted October 29, 2016 at 7:29 pm | Permalink

            Your choice with the BBC is not to have a TV
            As I said it’s not really a choice.
            You have a car you pay VED
            The only choice there is not to have a car
            (Some cars are zero VED I realise)
            You buy things you pay VAT
            You work so you pay NI and income tax
            It’s not really a choice
            Like the BBC

          • Jerry
            Posted October 30, 2016 at 2:44 pm | Permalink

            @Edward2, Oh do stop arguing the facts! Yes you choose, there is no law that says you must watch TV, you choose to use a car.

            No you do not have to pay VED if you merely own a car (never heard of SORN?!…), just like you do not need a TVL if you merely own but do not use either a television receiver, a television recording device or now the BBC iPlayer.

            On the other hand do tell us how the general public (non VAT registered business/people) can avoid paying VAT or more importantly to the point under discussion funding commercial TV on their purchasers at the checkouts? Heck even those who have no requirement to pay either NI or income tax, have no use for a TV never mind owning one, can not avoid paying both VAT or the “commercial TV tax” via the store checkout (unless they have taken non EU citizenship first).

          • Edward2
            Posted October 30, 2016 at 10:13 pm | Permalink

            It’s exactly the same as your pedantic argument about the TV licence Jerry
            You can avoid paying VAT by not buying anything with VAT on it.

          • Jerry
            Posted November 1, 2016 at 8:05 am | Permalink

            @Edwad2; “your pedantic argument”, that’s rich coming from you Eddie, you were the one tried to suggest that people have to watch broadcast television…

            How likely is it that someone can go through life avoiding stuff that is subject to VAT, might I suggest that you actually check what is exempt from VAT, before making any more daft comments. One would likely have to be a self sufficient hermit and even then it is doubtful that they could totally avoid VAT.

            But even if you are correct and (somehow) people could go through life avoid buying anything with VAT on it, they can only do so because a list of those items exempt from purchase tax are in the public domain, how can anyone avoid items that fund commercial TV when there is no list of items in the public domain – and no it is not necessarily those items ‘as seen on TV’, assuming you have a TV to see what items you should avoid…

    • Lifelogic
      Posted October 28, 2016 at 2:04 pm | Permalink

      They were voting for a restoration of real UK democracy and against the socialist, anti-democratic, corrupt and incompetent EU. For cheaper energy, more jobs, control of our borders and a bonfire of red tape. True we only got lefty, remainer T May so we have none of this as yet.

  8. Caterpillar
    Posted October 28, 2016 at 6:51 am | Permalink

    Yes it looks like the BoE’s interest rate drop and further QE has done the trick and kept the economy going, perhaps she will go further ⸮

  9. Brian Tomkinson
    Posted October 28, 2016 at 6:59 am | Permalink

    Despite the good news, project fear is still up and running. Most of the broadcast media puts a negative spin on any good news. Many give the impression that they fervently seek bad news which they can clain to be a consequence of Brexit. Even the Chancellor yesterday, whilst welcoming the ‘resilience’ of the UK economy, was wittering on about the future difficulties he still anticipates as a result of the decision to leave the EU. The overall impression he gave was not of an optimistic future.
    The pessimists won’t be happy until they have thwarted the will of the British people and overturned the result of the referendum. Delaying the process is playing into their hands and giving them more hope.

  10. Newmania
    Posted October 28, 2016 at 7:07 am | Permalink

    Yahooo !!!!
    It is said that mere sight of the instruments of torture exacted more confessions for the Spanish inquisition than the use of them but there was never an suggestion that the mere sight of Brexit would in itself implode the economy .We are in the EU got it ?
    The main factor here is the expectation of increases in interest rates and cuts . Since 2008 the mantra was austerity which , as Redwood correctly pointed out was never an objective reality.
    Alongside this was Carney`s astute managing of interest rate expectations , keeping the the housing market nervous whilst keeping demand as high as it would go.
    The “Just getting by” millions were braced for pain which , on both counts has been cancelled .That all there is to be said about that –
    My chief worry is that having shot every bolt on the pre Brexit worries what on earth do we do during hte dreadful two years and afterwards . If there was violence in the streets I would not be surprised .

    On Nissan If they face tarrifs they will suffer and under WTO we are not allowed to provide any assistance whatever May hav promised ( and it is crystal clear that assurances have been given ). If China cannot get away with dumping we sure can`t, so the worries of the unbelievably stupid Nissan workers are far form over . I cannot summon any sympathy for them , they are dragging me and my family into the pit they have dug and if we now have British Leyland back , the hollow laughter aint worth it .

    I note how every economic decision is now a political Brexiut decision with growing misery. So it always goes

    Reply This is just absurd. The economy is doing well and will continue to do so. Why are you so divorced from the truth.

  11. Fred
    Posted October 28, 2016 at 7:23 am | Permalink

    Since absolutely nothing has actually changed it’s hard to draw any conclusions. May’s government is a study in inaction and delay. When, or more accurately, if, they implement the wishes of the British people and get on with leaving the EU perhaps we might see real benefits.

  12. fedupsoutherner
    Posted October 28, 2016 at 7:38 am | Permalink

    As per usual QT was absolute bunkum last night. The only sensible people were the woman from the Tax payers Alliance and the Conservative business minister. The only thing the others had to offer was a load of left wing bull.

    Yes, John, it’s great news about Sunderland and the figures on the economy. The only thing I did agree with were the sentiments that people need to know what is happening now regarding Brexit. Businesses are concerned as are the general public and it would seem from the reaction in the audience, some are losing faith with Mrs May.

  13. Roy Grainger
    Posted October 28, 2016 at 8:04 am | Permalink

    Here’s Tony Blair reported today:

    “Brexit-backing politicians are now openly acknowledging that leaving means freeing Britain from its “essential social democratic” model, including a free NHS, he said.”

    Odd that since Project Fear failed so badly he thinks continuing it will work. I would suggest his best course to “protect” (in his view) the NHS would be to spend all his time campaigning for the return of a Labour government at the next election. Good luck with that.

  14. Parent
    Posted October 28, 2016 at 8:13 am | Permalink

    The continued moaning from Remainers and the media takes the form of

    “Well, all the world’s economies got an uplift in the last quarter. The UK was just part of it. ”

    ” Yes, but long-term things are uncertain”

    “Can I have some sweets? Can I? Can I? I want some sweets! I never have any! I want……”

  15. Denis Cooper
    Posted October 28, 2016 at 8:14 am | Permalink

    It’s still very early days; we’re past the predicted period of immediate economic collapse but wait to see how it pans out over the coming years. But no doubt those who have been predicting economic disaster to bolster their political case will continue to do so.

  16. Antisthenes
    Posted October 28, 2016 at 8:16 am | Permalink

    There are a number who are not happy with the economic figures. The remainers of course. It is obvious the BBC is going through spasms of anguish as they continue to find ways to denigrate Brexit whilst at the same time announcing good news through gritted teeth.

    The increase in wages for the low paid is a double edged sword. Fine for those in work and who can remain so but not so good for the low skilled as a whole. Slowly but surely jobs for them will dry up as employers will find cheaper ways to produce goods and services than paying high minimum wages costs and/or demand will decline due to higher prices. George may have thought he was stealing Labours thunder by adopting a lefty policy but it will in the end do what all lefty policies do. Hurt the poorest the most.

    Brexit is not yet impervious to pessimism or being blamed for every bit of bad news. That will not happen until well after Brexit is accomplished. Sniping and making spurious, outrageous and non factual claims about something is easy. The left have proven it as they have gained the influence they have by doing exactly that. Even in the face of damning evidence to the contrary. Remoaners and the left have made predictions, forecasts and made statements based on historical data that is obviously incorrect and is later proven to be wrong. Yet they continue to do so and are still believed and doing so again now.

  17. John S
    Posted October 28, 2016 at 8:18 am | Permalink

    Haven’t we got enough shopping centres?

  18. Chris S
    Posted October 28, 2016 at 8:25 am | Permalink

    Tony Blair is truly a dangerous man. He always sounds so plausible yet his record in Government was dire. This morning on Today with Nick Robinson he was suggesting we keep our options open so we can change our minds and remain in the EU if the deal ends up not being good for us.

    He almost had me convinced it was a reasonable argument but of course it’s just another trick by the most rabid Europhile in the UK to thwart the will of the people.

    • Roy Grainger
      Posted October 28, 2016 at 2:37 pm | Permalink

      If we say we will have a second referendum the EU then have an incentive to offer us nothing at all in negotiations so that the outcome will be Remain. Fairly transparent scheming from Blair.

  19. Peter VAN LEEUWEN
    Posted October 28, 2016 at 8:27 am | Permalink

    How much did the UK GDP grow in $ or € terms? 🙂

    • ian wragg
      Posted October 28, 2016 at 11:32 am | Permalink

      We don’t spend $ or Euro’s down at ASDA.
      How’s the Dutch referendum campaign coming along

      • Longinus
        Posted October 28, 2016 at 12:17 pm | Permalink

        Our EU contribution may be dropping in Euros come December…

      • Jerry
        Posted October 28, 2016 at 1:00 pm | Permalink

        @ian wragg; “We don’t spend $ or Euro’s down at ASDA.”

        Not directly, any how….

    • a-tracy
      Posted October 28, 2016 at 1:22 pm | Permalink

      That’s an interesting question Peter, do we get assessed on how much we pay to the EU this year and next year depending on the value of the Pound-v-Euro, if so we should have to pay less in surely?

      • Longinus
        Posted October 28, 2016 at 5:53 pm | Permalink

        Contribution depends on exchange rate on 31 Dec 2016, shortfall could be around 1.8 bn Euros.

    • Anonymous
      Posted October 29, 2016 at 6:36 am | Permalink

      Newmania – Now this is the way to do it (from PvL.) Class !

  20. JoytotheWorld
    Posted October 28, 2016 at 8:27 am | Permalink

    Let us all hope the Remoaners all go off early for Christmas.
    The Labour Ghost of Christmas Yet to Come ——” It’s going to be a bleak Christmas…”
    ” Mothers are wondering whether they dare have a Christmas this year with all the uncertainty”
    ” No joy about this Christmas for anyone”
    “Millions of poor in the UK will be sat with their lights out trying to save money”
    ” The first Santa Claus was a foreigner, I bet the Tories hate that!”

    A special SNP message for Christmas: ” We are going to confiscate and throw all the English toys out of Scotland. So we will! “

  21. Tony Banks
    Posted October 28, 2016 at 8:46 am | Permalink

    Every bit of good news is followed by warnings about the difficult times ahead, Philip Hammond seemed depressed about the future even after good news. Every news programme followed the reporting of the good GDP figures and the Nissan car plant with doom and gloom warnings about the future EU negotiations. We need to be positive, confident in our abilities. The sooner we trigger article 50 the better, March seems a long way off to suffer the pessimism of the remainers and the media.

  22. Prigger
    Posted October 28, 2016 at 8:55 am | Permalink

    BBC and SkyNews are most likely camped outside the home of John McDonnell Shadow Chancellor awaiting him announcing:

    “The reason consumer confidence is high is because people are borrowing money from friends and relatives so they can buy early while stocks last in anticipation of food shortages and the Four Horsepersons of Post-Brexit Apocalypse running in the 2.30 at Epsom ”
    This will be followed by “experts” in the studio gleefully admitting he has a point with contributions from Labour activists pointing out how few female jockeys win and as a by the waythat not enough men are being found guilty of rape and cruelty to animals.

    • SM
      Posted October 28, 2016 at 5:33 pm | Permalink

      I believe you mean the ‘Post Breakfast Apocalypse’.

  23. Peter Dunsmore-Hill
    Posted October 28, 2016 at 8:58 am | Permalink

    The answer to the EU single market. Not in not out but a third way. https://mises.org/blog/britain-should-embrace-unilateral-free-trade-right-now

  24. Iain Gill
    Posted October 28, 2016 at 9:23 am | Permalink

    Yes the UK has a very healthy figures based on cheap imported labour displacing the locals from the workforce, and ridiculous measures from the central bank. With lots of Brits out of work across all parts of the skills spectrum, and the unemployment figures as fake as a nine bob note.
    Don’t see much to cheer about any more than I would cheer a Roman slave trader making a lot of money.
    It’s all a playing card edifice which will come crashing down.

    • libertarian
      Posted October 28, 2016 at 4:36 pm | Permalink

      Iain Gill

      There are 32 million people in employment in the UK, the highest number ever recorded . Get over yourself

      • Anonymous
        Posted October 28, 2016 at 9:34 pm | Permalink

        Most of them washing each other’s clothes.

      • Iain Gill
        Posted October 28, 2016 at 9:37 pm | Permalink

        The books are crooked as any casual glance around the country and groups of workers would expose.

        We most certainly do not have a boom in employment. Not in my profession, and not in large parts of the country.

        If you want to believe the emperor has no clothes go ahead. More fool you.

      • David Price
        Posted October 29, 2016 at 5:23 am | Permalink

        From the ONS statistical bulletin “UK Labour Market: October 2016” (actual the link would be as long as this comment);

        From 1997-2016;
        – No. of non-uk nationals working in uk increased from 966k to 3.45m.
        – non-UK workers increased from 3.7% to 10.9% of all people working in uk
        – increase reflects admission of several new member states

        From April 2015 to 2016
        – UK nationals working in UK increased by 373k to 28.2m
        – non-UK nationals working in UK increased by 242k to 3.4m

        There are 1.6m unemployed people in the UK, that’s 4.8% of a workforce where 10.9% of workers are non-UK. This says nothing about the kind of work people have and how it has changed over the period.

        More people being employed is a good thing but we have more of our own unemployed than are brought in and this doesn’t even include all the jobs that have been transferred elsewhere. I’d much rather it was our children than someone else’s that our efforts and investment in education supported.

  25. Richard Butler
    Posted October 28, 2016 at 9:49 am | Permalink

    Imagine Merkel and Hollande going to their voters seeking re-election with the message > ‘vote for me, vote for tariffs, higher prices and job losses’

  26. Richard Butler
    Posted October 28, 2016 at 9:52 am | Permalink

    Liberals are the real conservatives. Watching the Liberal Lords yesterday confirms they are hell bent on conserving a settled scene, rejecting progressive modern change, rejecting a new confident global Britain. Ironic eh.

  27. Kenneth
    Posted October 28, 2016 at 10:01 am | Permalink

    John, it seems that Nissan share the views you expressed the other day about the bright future for the UK car industry.

    Keep going. You are a beacon of common sense.

  28. Labour of Moan
    Posted October 28, 2016 at 10:06 am | Permalink

    I guess many in Labour and other parties would cry foul, no doubt quite rightly in many many cases, if they were accused even as part of a Comment such as this that they were not just unpatriotic but way beyond the pale. But, which is their most used three-letter word, their continued lack of real genuine acceptance of the Leave vote……their continued histrionic pessimism which they attempt inflicting on British people for Party gain does not add from their dauber palette any deeper red, white and blue upon our bless-ed canvas.

    How much the Financial World listens to Labour and Remainers’ axe-hacks to our flag by way of their morose moanings, running our country down is a matter of conjecture. But……John and Janet World Citizen are less likely to go buy from a shop where much of the staff tell them it is rubbish and will end up closing through bad management and shop-soiled goods and oh would not it have been better (perfect past tense actually: the vote was LEAVE ) if only, if only ,we had stayed in the EU.

  29. Oggy
    Posted October 28, 2016 at 10:35 am | Permalink

    Perhaps Mrs May told Nissan on the quiet that corporation tax will be cut in the next budget by 4 or 5 per cent. Where would the money come from to fund it though is my only question.

    I see Tony Bleating Blair said today – ‘I accept the referendum result BUT we must have another when the British people change their minds about leaving the EU’ ! – The man is deluded and arrogant.

    I see the NI court has thrown out the Brexit challenge there.

  30. Denis Cooper
    Posted October 28, 2016 at 10:35 am | Permalink

    Come on, JR, you know that it is a ‘catastrophe’. Tony Blair says so, and when have we ever known Tony Blair to be wrong, or deceitful, about anything?

    I like this part of the response from Maria Caulfield MP, member of the Exiting the European Union Select Committee:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/28/minister-convinced-nissan-to-keep-building-in-uk-with-written-pr/

    “Tony Blair broke his own promise of a referendum on the EU, encouraged uncontrolled immigration and now can’t come to terms with the decision of the people of the UK to leave.”

    For which decision Tony Blair himself was in fact largely responsible; few people were particularly worried about the EU principle of freedom of movement of persons before he decided that it was a great idea to have open door mass immigration from much poorer countries in eastern Europe, whether or not the British people wanted that.

    Incidentally, with the High Court in Northern Ireland having just rejected the attempts to stop the government serving the Article 50 notice that may perhaps have a good effect on the High Court judges in London.

    • a-tracy
      Posted October 28, 2016 at 8:46 pm | Permalink

      Tony Blair also gave up around 40% of our rebate in a deal to reform the CAP, we lost the money, the CAP reform wasn’t concluded. This cost the UK billions and now Blair tells us he knows what he’s talking about with the EU!

  31. Sam Stoner
    Posted October 28, 2016 at 10:45 am | Permalink

    Both Nissan and the government have made it crystal clear that a deal has been done , although the terms are not yet made public. (Both the EU Commission and the WTO will ensure they are).

    If Brexit was going to be a success, there would be no need for a deal.

    Ergo, we have proof positive that Brexit will not be a success – other than for firms strong enough to extract sweeteners from the government.

    Sunny uplands anyone?

    Reply. Nonsense . No “deal”, just a clear statement of government policy over training, R and D, new technology etc and a reminder of the tax advantages of the UK etc.

    • Sam Stoner
      Posted October 28, 2016 at 11:54 am | Permalink

      So our trade minister flew all the way to Japan to tell them that nothing has changed.

      Come off it!!

      • libertarian
        Posted October 28, 2016 at 4:40 pm | Permalink

        Sam Stoner

        Explain why Google and Adobe are moving their European HQ’s to London, why Dutch bank ING are moving their traders to London , why Glaxo is investing quarter billion in new developments, why SoftBank invested 28 billion. Oh yes cos they all know Brexit is going to fail and they will be bailed out by the taxpayer…. Come off it !!!!

      • Iain Gill
        Posted October 28, 2016 at 9:30 pm | Permalink

        Renault control Nissan

        Its a complex arrangement but all the big decisions are made in France

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted October 28, 2016 at 12:45 pm | Permalink

      “Both Nissan and the government have made it crystal clear that a deal has been done, although the terms are not yet made public.”

      Not as I have read in the media, but even if a deal has been done so what?

      Would you prefer it if the government did nothing to protect our economy from the malice of foreigners? Whose side are you on here?

      • graham1946
        Posted October 28, 2016 at 7:18 pm | Permalink

        Personally, Denis, I’d prefer a level playing field for all, especially SME’s which are the backbone of the economy, rather than an industry by industry or firm by firm deal.

        The squeaky wheel get the oil, but start down that road and the floodgates will open. If they have done any kind of financial deal, other than just advising of how better things will be under Brexit, they will burst the dam and bust the economy.

        • Denis Cooper
          Posted October 29, 2016 at 8:00 am | Permalink

          I would ask the same question: should our government do nothing to protect our economy from the malice of foreigners? If there was no malice, if continental politicians accepted that we have decided to leave and resolved to make the best of it for everybody – as required by the EU treaties and also by wider “international law” – then that would be different and I would be more inclined to agree with you. But it is now clear that they are set on a trade war to punish us for our temerity in wanting to make use of a provision in those treaties which they insisted we must have, and we have the choice of giving in to their bullying or fighting back.

    • Jerry
      Posted October 28, 2016 at 1:12 pm | Permalink

      @JR reply; First you need to define what is meant by a “deal”…

      If no deal was done why then the need for Nissan to visit No.10 for a confidential meeting, nothing you say above wasn’t either already in the public domain or could not have been placed in the public domain without said meeting (or indeed after said meeting).

      If there really has not been any “deal” then this is turning in to Mrs May’s first PR disaster as PM.

      • Edward2
        Posted October 28, 2016 at 3:56 pm | Permalink

        One minute you call for the Govt to give help and support for UK industry and then when it does you are on posting against it doing anything.
        Make your mind up.

        • Jerry
          Posted October 29, 2016 at 8:46 am | Permalink

          @Edward2; Read what you wish into my comments, everyone else will read what I wrote into them!

          I have not disagreed with what Denis Cooper said, I don’t give a dam what might or might not have been agree so long as it is legal, meaning that if a ‘deal’ has been done it might not be able to be implemented until after Brexit (which might explain any coyness), my issue is public perception and the damage that might be causing to Mrs May’s government.

          Better sometimes for HMG to say nothing, that way any storm in an eggcup can not be feed and so become a hurricane in a stadium on match-day…

    • libertarian
      Posted October 28, 2016 at 4:46 pm | Permalink

      Sam Stoner

      Both the Government and the head of Nissan Europe confirm that NO MONEY or special deal has been sought or offered. Nissan intends to produce 400,000 new cars in Sunderland, 80,000 of them for the UK market. Historically the Sunderland plant has made mostly cars for the right hand drive market, they haven’t let me know yet which markets the two models are aimed at. Car making is a global business

      • Sam stoner
        Posted October 29, 2016 at 4:55 am | Permalink

        So you think that at Nissan’s meeting at No 10, and at Greg Clarke’s meetings in Japan, the line was simply, “well, old chap, Britain is really a super place to do business, and as for Brexit, well, we intend to make a success of it”.
        And the Nissan execs slapped their forehead and said, “gosh, we didn’t know, in that case we will promise to build a new factory immediately”

      • stred
        Posted October 29, 2016 at 5:24 am | Permalink

        A new Juke model was parked next to us in France during our holiday and the bird wants one. It is a big improvement and they are selling a lot in France. I looked them up and found that they are designed in London and the Nissan site lists only Sunderland as building Jukes, Quashqais, Leaves and Notes in Europe. I was told the new note was built in a new factory in the Czech republic.

      • Jerry
        Posted October 29, 2016 at 8:51 am | Permalink

        libertarian; “[Nissan] haven’t let me know yet which markets the two models are aimed at”

        Indeed Walter, there has been no public press release to date…

  32. fedupsoutherner
    Posted October 28, 2016 at 11:09 am | Permalink

    Have the government told Nissan that we will be staying in the single market or have they managed to do a deal for the car industry alone? If this is the case then perhaps the news from Sunderland isn’t so great after all. If we are to stay in the single market then we haven’t got Brexit at all.

    Reply No on both counts

    • fedupsoutherner
      Posted October 28, 2016 at 12:17 pm | Permalink

      Thanks for that reassurance John.

    • bratwurst
      Posted October 28, 2016 at 8:45 pm | Permalink

      No evidence that we haven’t told Nissan we will stay in the single market & yes, we can stay in the single market and still leave the EU.

    • Iain Gill
      Posted October 28, 2016 at 9:34 pm | Permalink

      We almost certainly import more Renault/Dacia/Nissan cars than we export, so the harsh reality of the sums were probably pointed out. If the government had any sense that’s all that would be needed. We could make life a lot more difficult for them than they could for us.

  33. John Finn
    Posted October 28, 2016 at 11:16 am | Permalink

    John Redwood

    Congratulations. Your assessment of the UK economy post referendum was far more accurate than the estimates from practically all the “experts”

    I have a question.

    On AUGUST 3RD, the Bank of England announced various interventions to ease the UK economy through a difficult period. I’ve just read the ONS Summary on the GDP figures, i.e.

    http://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/grossdomesticproductpreliminaryestimate/julytosept2016

    From Section 7, it’s clear to see that economic growth was particularly robust during July. Services alone grew by 0.4%. I have read a lot of stuff which has suggested July was weak and the BoE intervention helped boost August and September. In fact, if anything, the reverse has actually happened.

    So why did the BoE cut interest rates in August and shouldn’t more be made of the individual monthly figures to expose the nonsense about the BOE’s “effective measures”?

    Reply I am an “expert” as well! Yes, the growth and credit growth was particularly robust in JUly which makes the Bank’s actions even odder. I did criticise them at the time.

    • John Finn
      Posted October 28, 2016 at 6:13 pm | Permalink

      I am an “expert” as well

      Of course. What I meant to write was

      “Your assessment of the UK economy post referendum was far more accurate than the estimates from practically all the OTHER experts”

  34. Taffy
    Posted October 28, 2016 at 11:35 am | Permalink

    The Remoaners are in denial about Brexit. Will there be an electoral backlash upon them? It all depends on the success we expect in the few years leading to the next election. “It was better in the old days when we were in the EU ” is not a good game plan. It has never worked for me, harping back to the old days when we just spoke as free as the air and told jokes where everyone laughed “There was an equal citizen, an equal citizen and an equal citizen. The first equal citizen said:…. Ok you’ve heard it before.

  35. David Lister
    Posted October 28, 2016 at 12:42 pm | Permalink

    Dear John,

    In the calculation for GDP growth does it take into account the devaluation of the currency?

    If GDP grows by 2% but the currency is worth 18% less has the wealth of the UK increased or reduced when measured against an international basket of currencies?

    Reply Wealth is a stock, growth is a flow of National Income, so they are different measures. UK wealth includes substantial overseas asset holdings which are now worth more in pounds.

    • David Lister
      Posted October 28, 2016 at 9:24 pm | Permalink

      Thankyou for response.

      So to determine if wealth has increased we need to look at the ratio of assets within the UK relative to ratio of assets held overseas. The 2% GDP growth (=income but adds to wealth?) is probably lost in the noise relative to the currency swing.

      I assume that total assets in UK are much greater than overseas assets in which case overall wealth has reduced, (but I haven’t checked this)

  36. paul rivers
    Posted October 28, 2016 at 1:06 pm | Permalink

    I am personally very concerned by the extreme negativity coming out of both the FT and Bloomberg which are probably the two key media outlets followed internationally. This can only be damaging to the UK’s business prospects and could turn off international investors. Particularly in the case of Bloomberg the chilling headline does not match what a particular person or institution said. I am afraid to say that Davos man remains convinced everything will be a disaster. Already on the Nissan story there are criticisms of ” bribery “, ignoring the fact that Honda , for example, have also said they remain committed to the UK

  37. David Lister
    Posted October 28, 2016 at 1:12 pm | Permalink

    ” .. It is difficult to see why there should suddenly be a sharp downturn next year, given the growth in jobs, income, credit and money this year. ”

    Its quite easy to see several potential downturns:

    There are (at least) two factors:
    1) Article 50 and a perception by the City of a hard-brexit as evidenced with the correlation of the £:$ to recent political interventions; and
    2) The consequence of a weak £ on imported energy prices (in pounds) and inflation

    Unless the £ recovers there will be an eventual pick-up in prices of many commodities which are still hedged. Inflation on basic essentials (food & energy) will impact consumer confidence. Hedging will take a while to unwind but imported prices (£) will eventually rise to match the weakened £.

    Apple this morning announced a 20% increase in prices. This adds to the recent price increases of Dell and HP, and of course the well publicized pressures on pricing highlighted by the Unilever/Tesco public spat.

    I’m pleased that you can be so optimistic and fail to see any reason for a downturn. But inflation is like that, it slowly drains away free capital in the absence of equivalent growth.

    (source FT and Telegraph: “Apple hikes MacBook and iMac prices by 20pc in response to post-Brexit sterling fall” )
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2016/10/28/apple-hikes-macbook-and-imac-prices-by-20pc-in-response-to-brexi/

    • Jerry
      Posted October 29, 2016 at 9:04 am | Permalink

      @David Lister; Our host had similar optimism in the 1980s, just a little more pain and everything will be OK we were told by the government he worked for or was a party of, three or four rescissions later the Tories were kicked out of power for 18 years -ironically just as the pain was about to turn to boom for the majority

      It will not take so long this time for the public to see what the party-politicos do not want to see, the right-wing MSM understand this, probably because they understand the power of the the internet and social media better than politicos do, hence why they are already attempting to vilify the like of Corbyn and Farron etc.

      Reply I was critical of pre 1980 policy which led to recession. 1982 onwards saw growth resume

      • Jerry
        Posted October 29, 2016 at 6:46 pm | Permalink

        JR reply; Cough… In 1978 and 1979 unemployment was actually falling from the decade high in 1977 (all of 5.5%). unemployment then started climbing from 1980 to a decade -and post WW2- high of 12% [1] in 1985, from then on we were merely playing catch up just to get back to the point the government you were a part of started at in 1979! A figure not actually reached until c.2000.

        [1] putting aside the change in how the figure was calculated, many unemployed being removed from the official figures because they were not claiming unemployment/social security etc.

  38. Bert Young
    Posted October 28, 2016 at 1:25 pm | Permalink

    Good news should now be followed by a business boosting budget ; attracting investment and improving revenue goes hand in glove . We all know that reducing taxes increases the cash the Government has available for further bolstering efforts to the economy . Messages sent to the tax payers in this country and to those outside should be positive and encouraging .
    (followed by anti Blair diatribe ed)

  39. Denis Cooper
    Posted October 28, 2016 at 1:26 pm | Permalink

    Another misleading article in the Times today:

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/bankers-may-not-be-popular-but-they-need-our-protection-k0z992czs

    “Bankers may not be popular, but they need our protection”

    “Financial services create jobs and investment not just in London, but in Edinburgh, Leeds, Birmingham, Bournemouth and elsewhere. According to TheCityUK, 2.2 million people in Britain are employed in the industry, which makes up 12 per cent of our economic output. No other sector provides more in taxes, or enjoy the same balance of payments surplus. The government should seek to nurture and protect it.”

    Next time I go into our local Nationwide branch I must remember to ask the lady behind the counter how the exports are going, and whether she has been selling more to the rest of the EU or to the wider world outside the EU, and of course how badly their business has been hit by Brexit. I’m sure she’ll appreciate my interest in how things are going in her part of this vital exporting and revenue generating sector of the economy employing 2.2 million people like her.

  40. Dennia
    Posted October 28, 2016 at 3:02 pm | Permalink

    JR’s Reply “Wealth is a stock, growth is a flow of National Income, so they are different measures. UK wealth includes substantial overseas asset holdings which are now worth more in pounds.”

    This says nothing or very little. The value/wealth of overseas asset holdings in $ remains the same – that they are ‘worth’ more pounds doesn’t change that. And the assets held in the UK priced/valued in pounds are worth less when the £ devalues – buys less if used to buy $ goods and even £ goods in the UK if product prices increase due to required import resources.

  41. brian
    Posted October 28, 2016 at 9:31 pm | Permalink

    Unjustified sniping against the Governor of The Bank of England will encourage him to leave his post early. We have too many back seat drivers and egotistical commentators.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-10-28/bank-of-england-s-mark-carney-prepares-his-own-brexit

  42. Jack
    Posted October 29, 2016 at 2:32 am | Permalink

    2.3% annual GDP growth isn’t considered “great” by any means, especially when other countries like China grow their GDP anywhere between 7 and 15% annually simply by maintaining sufficient aggregate demand.

    In China’s case it’s usually state bank lending, basically if the Communist Party tells you to lend, you lend! And Chinese credit growth is around 30% of GDP a year, but they’re starting to move away from state bank lending and more towards increasing the fiscal deficit, but they’re both functionally the same thing (they both add net Yuan to the economy).

    As before the referendum, we continue living way below our means and wasting trillions of pounds worth of potential GDP.

    The budget deficit should be over 10% of GDP, at least for the next few years. After that, maybe lower it to something like 5,6,7 or 8% of GDP depending on how inflation is doing. We can do this right now, now we’ve voted for Brexit I doubt the EU is going to be breathing down our necks to maintain the 3% deficit limit as per the SGP.

  43. Lindsay McDougall
    Posted October 31, 2016 at 12:44 am | Permalink

    The forecasts of the ‘pessimists’ were blantantly and deliberately dishonest.

    That being so, in addition to Brexit, there has to be a cleansing of the Augean stables, both within British politics and within international institutions. After the continuation of Project Fear, there are clearly many people who can never be trusted again.

  44. Ken Moore
    Posted October 31, 2016 at 3:50 pm | Permalink

    Chairman Redwood,

    Rather depressing that the main economic good news concern :-
    a)a foreign firm we are now obliged to kowtow to… whose profits leave the country.
    b)Yet more retail space and the ‘recycling of money’ creating nothing of real value.
    A temple to the British obsession of ‘self worship’.
    c)More port capacity as the demand for cheap imports is so great underlying the pathetic capability of our manufacturing sector.

    I wish we could end our obsession with GDP – it’s a nonsensical measure that could include the paying of the government for holes to be dug and filled in again.

    I assume GDP also includes the government spending underlying the ‘Ponzi scheme’ like nature of the British economy – borrowed money is being pumped into the economy in order to pretend the economy is growing. Then we are supposed to be delighted this has increased by 2 something %.

    What really matters is discretionary spending power after essentials have been bought – wages have lagged way behind rises in energy, food and housing costs and this trend is set to continue. Taxes need to rise to pay for the hospitals, schools and homes needed for the millions of people the Conservatives have welcomed to our shores – at a time of pension deficits and debt ravaged public finances.

  45. am
    Posted November 1, 2016 at 6:01 am | Permalink

    All true but some notice needs to be taken of reports that UK exporters are not using the fall in the pound to increase export volumes but are using it to increase sterling export prices and hence lose the competitiveness of the depreciation. The increase in prices allowing for import cost inflation may mean increased profits and reduction in government borrowing, but it may not, and I would rather increase in output and value. Liam Fox may have had a point. More focus is required on this issue and its wider implications for the balance of payments and demand side indicators.

  • About John Redwood


    John Redwood won a free place at Kent College, Canterbury, and graduated from Magdalen College Oxford. He is a Distinguished fellow of All Souls, Oxford. A businessman by background, he has set up an investment management business, was both executive and non executive chairman of a quoted industrial PLC, and chaired a manufacturing company with factories in Birmingham, Chicago, India and China. He is the MP for Wokingham, first elected in 1987.

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