More good news from the UK economy

I trust the Treasury and Bank are revisiting their forecasts for 2017 as we speak.

Yesterday the UK’s largest housebuilder, Persimmon, announced another good set of figures. New home sales were up 19% year on year. They have pre sold their homes for 2016, and are ahead of last yea’s performance in sales for the following year. House prices have stayed up, despite Bank and Treasury forecasts to the contrary. Even better news came with Persimmon telling us they are putting in a new brick factory in Doncaster, and aim to be making bricks there next summer. That is exactly the kind of import saving investment we need, to cater for rising domestic demand. Persimmon also pre fabricate parts of their homes from a Midlands factory to speed site construction and improve precision.

A new potash mine investment is going ahead in Yorkshire with a £2.5bn investment. Output of automotive engines was up 6.7% so far this year at end September. Car manufacturing output is up 10.5% over the last year.

Various retailers have confirmed that sales of luxury brands to visitors to the UK have risen sharply following the decline in sterling. Burberrys, for example, said UK retail sales were up 30% when worldwide sales were pretty flat. Meanwhile retail prices fell again last month in sterling terms, despite the fall in the pound. Overall retail sales have been strong since June 23rd and real incomes have continued to rise.

The Bank’s pessimism centres on fears that major companies will postpone or even cancel investment projects. It is difficult to see why, when money, credit and demand are all growing so well. The Nissan news reflects the need for highly productive investors in the UK to reinforce their success for what is an important growing domestic market. UK manufacturing has just become 15% more competitive, underwriting the success of Uk factories for foreign investors. I want to see the government promote UK purchasing. The government itself is a mighty buyer of products. Once free of the EU controls, you would expect exciting new approaches.

Money and credit are growing faster than before the vote. This implies continuing good growth next year. The average forecaster has now revised up their 2016 forecast to the levels last seen before the vote. isn’t it time they did the same for 2017?

The OBR/Treasury forecast matters because it will inform the Autumn Statement. If they persist with a downbeat and inaccurate estimate for next year they will claim tax revenues are lower than the March forecast and spending higher. It is important markets look through this and understand that in practice things are likely to turn out as forecast in March, with a lower deficit as a result.

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66 Comments

  1. CHRISTOPHER HOUSTON
    Posted November 3, 2016 at 5:53 am | Permalink

    “A new potash mine investment is going ahead in Yorkshire with a £2.5bn investment.”

    I guess the company must be thinking very long term indeed.There is an ongoing contraction in regard to potash with many investors having dividends slashed from existing large companies worldwide. The world is sinking under the weight of potash. Investment funds have been preaching “avoid” for quite some time. So long as the company does not get any tax-payers money ….now or later, and make forward ring-fenced provisions for cleaning up after themselves then fair enough.

    • JJE
      Posted November 3, 2016 at 9:10 am | Permalink

      It’s a unique resource that will produce polyhalite at massive volumes. It will be particularly appropriate for use in China. It’s a big reason for the potash producers having to rethink their plans.
      The fund raising was extremely difficult to get away and the small shareholders that supported the project patiently through the protracted planning approval process have been “rewarded” by seeing their shares drop 40% due to the heavily discounted placement.

      • CHRISTOPHER HOUSTON
        Posted November 3, 2016 at 3:07 pm | Permalink

        You may find that particular type of potash is massively abundant in China as a result she has curbned her imports phenomenally. So too India. Of course all the client nations in the area can buy cheaper than anything which can be shipped from these shores and in greater bulk.

    • forthurst
      Posted November 3, 2016 at 10:25 am | Permalink

      “The York Potash Project aims to extract a form of potash known as polyhalite, which combines four of the six essential nutrients plants need – potassium, magnesium, sulphur and calcium.”

      “The richest polyhalite ore reserve in the world – more than 2.6 billion tonnes of it – lies beneath the national park in the area being targeted by York Potash.” York Press.

      • CHRISTOPHER HOUSTON
        Posted November 3, 2016 at 3:12 pm | Permalink

        I’m afraid that wikipedia on this subject is somewhat behind the times. You will find China has no need of it. In any case, plant nutients and minerals are not poured on to agricultural land willy-nilly. Selective fertilisers are used foir specific soil and plant requirements avoiding over fertilisation and over mineralisation which interact with other soil constituents in a negative non-productive way, Agriculture is not about about General fertilising as with a small bulb shaped glass bottle of brown stuff used on a houseplant on window-sill.

        • forthurst
          Posted November 4, 2016 at 1:10 pm | Permalink

          Ridiculous comment.

  2. Ian Wragg
    Posted November 3, 2016 at 6:11 am | Permalink

    With savings paying less than 1% and inflation roaring up towards 4% it is a tradgedy that Carney is allowed to stay in post.
    Is Mrs May so spineless that she dare not sack him.

    • Caterpillar
      Posted November 3, 2016 at 7:27 am | Permalink

      Yes to the tragedy part, although some people on approaching a million a year may be unaffected, those at the other end continue to suffer the tragedy.

      Perhaps we will see a reversal to the previous drop in rates + QE, and a more considered, fairer and on task decision, of an increase. Inflation bubbling up, unemployment down, demand seeming OK etc., the opportunity to reverse and normalise should be taken.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted November 3, 2016 at 7:41 am | Permalink

      Indeed. Banks paying you perhaps 0.2% less tax, if you lend to them unsecured then asking you for base plus 3% to 30% if you borrow (often secured plus a large fee on top). Where is the competition authority here? There is clearly little real competition in banking if they get away with these margins. Charging 15 to 150 times what they pay for cash deposits.

      Often (indeed usually) the borrowers are far a better credit risk than the banks are too.

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted November 3, 2016 at 7:52 am | Permalink

      At least the Bank no longer needs to worry about slipping into deflation, which was the main excuse for QE originally … there are a couple of useful charts of CPI in this article:

      http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/10/18/inflation-rises-at-fastest-pace-in-two-years-as-weak-pound-begin/

      From the first chart, so far the slope of the “roaring up towards 4%” is similar to the rise from 2% to 3% during 2006, nothing to do with any vote to leave the EU, but now the rise has been from 0% to 1%.

      The second chart gives the picture back to 1990 and over just that timescale we are still in a period of low inflation. I can remember getting a massive salary rise in the mid-1970’s of which the greater part was merely adjustment for inflation, and we are nowhere near that, yet.

    • Jerry
      Posted November 3, 2016 at 9:33 am | Permalink

      @Ian Wragg; But Mr Carney is not the problem, government polices have been (coupled to an economy reliant on ever greater debt levels), but people like you do not want to hear these economic facts of life, you just want fall-guys, once it was the migrants and the EU, now it is Mr Carney, who will be your next fall-guy or will you finally take long hard look in the mirror…

      Sure interest rates could be increased but that would cause other problems, try looking at the whole and not just that of self interest.

      • ian wragg
        Posted November 3, 2016 at 1:24 pm | Permalink

        Tell me wise one, why should I bank money which is lent on at 6% or more only to receive 0.25% interest and suffer 4% inflation.
        Inflation is a direct result of the remainiacs in government and BofE deliberately talking down Britain and printing unnecessary money.
        I’m not looking for a fall guy just a bit of justice.
        It seems you are the bigoted one.

        • Jerry
          Posted November 3, 2016 at 7:27 pm | Permalink

          @ian wragg; ‘Tell me wise one’, why should I and the majority have to suffer the consequences from the BoE not doing what they should just so that you can receive a hight than just interest rate?

  3. Prigger
    Posted November 3, 2016 at 6:17 am | Permalink

    “Even better news came with Persimmon telling us they are putting in a new brick factory in Doncaster, and aim to be making bricks there next summer. ”

    An Education Minister on behalf of the government was speaking in Parliament recently concerning grammar schools and The Rt Hon Caroline Flint MP(Labour)Constituency – Don Valley ( Doncaster ) politely interjected and said matter-of-factly that it was difficult to “keep teachers in Doncaster.”Also “attract teachers to Doncaster as they did not wish to live in Doncaster”. I do not doubt her integrity in this matter. The question is, who is buying the housing in Doncaster? Persimmon build relatively quite upmarket housing at times. Whilst Doncaster is certainly no idyllic birthplace of Shakespeare, there are far worse places, and Doncaster would probably be the highest housing cost area a school teacher should afford. So this a genuine puzzle. Though it has always been recognised in the Insurance business for instance quote: “teachers live far far above their means” unquote. Persimmon probably expects teachers downsizing after they have learned a thing or two. Ms Flint should be reassured. With the 14 week holiday year, every weekend off, working 9 to 4pm they will able to get a part-time job in the brickworks to fill an idle hour or two.

    • Mark B
      Posted November 3, 2016 at 6:53 am | Permalink
      • CHRISTOPHER HOUSTON
        Posted November 3, 2016 at 3:16 pm | Permalink

        Do check “Persimmon houses for sale in Doncaster” and around Doncaster in addition to the link which you have chosen

    • Lifelogic
      Posted November 3, 2016 at 7:48 am | Permalink

      It was the Brick factory being built there, not nessesarily the houses being built with the bricks.

      Often the biggest problem with recruiting teachers is the fact that they fail to pay more to teachers who teach in subject where there are shortages. Maths, physics, and science teacher usually. I think the unions try to see to this to push up all wages if they can.

      • CHRISTOPHER HOUSTON
        Posted November 3, 2016 at 3:23 pm | Permalink

        Please check the company in question, logistics/costs/distances and WEIGHT of transporting bricks which will give clues about its location ( the brick- factory..)…and the developments which are coming to that area which are not reported really.London has run out of space.Earnings, rents, house-prices are too expensive for housing and even factory development. One does not need a factory costing £20m in London to produce 50p rubber ducks when you can buy similar near Doncaster for a 40th the price and the workers actually work.

      • CHRISTOPHER HOUSTON
        Posted November 3, 2016 at 3:26 pm | Permalink

        Hard to believe there can be a problem recruiting teachers. So much immigration and not a teacher among them? Ah well I guess they choose healthcare work in preference because the conditions are so terrible, shift-work, 10 weeks less holidays per year than a teacher.

    • Ian Wragg
      Posted November 3, 2016 at 8:30 am | Permalink

      I think it’s more likely that the brick factory is sited near the raw materials. Bricks are easily transported and Doncaster is pretty central with good transport links.
      My car was built in Swindon but they managed to get it too me.

    • Jerry
      Posted November 3, 2016 at 9:47 am | Permalink

      @Prigger; “who is buying the housing in Doncaster?”

      It would not surprise me to learn that Doncaster is becoming the new Peterborough, in other words the outer suburban limit to the daily commute to/from London, 40 years ago it was Huntingdon, before that it was Hitchin and Royston but as house prices increased in those areas and train journey times dropped…

      As for your comments about the teaching profession, you really do not have a first clue if you think that teachers leave their work behind between 4pm and 9am the next day (when do you think they do much of their lesson planing and marking etc?), whilst having long holidays, I suspect you also think that MPs only work between 10:30am and when ever the floor of the house rises, whilst many have Fridays off…

      • CHRISTOPHER HOUSTON
        Posted November 3, 2016 at 3:41 pm | Permalink

        Jerry, Doncaster is not the NEW Peterborough. Better to say if to make a comparison that Peterborough is the NEW Doncaster. It is highly developed and has been since Roman times. It used to be called Danum and had a Celtic name long forgotten of Donny.

        I should not underestimate my knowledge of the teaching “profession” .

        I really do not know how much work MPs do. JR works.
        I have only known three MPs plus a Lord. They all worked very hard when I usually saw them…in the evening at meetings and in other places. I often wonder why in an Emergency Parliamentary Session only 550 MPs maximum turn up out of 650 to vote. They can’t all be stuck in traffic or got a slight chill.

  4. Lifelogic
    Posted November 3, 2016 at 6:35 am | Permalink

    Indeed and how much better still it could be if T May turned into a real Conservative. If she cancelled her expensive and pointless vanity projects, went for cheap reliable energy, had a bonfire of red tape, sorted out the lack of any real competition in banking, undid the Uber ruling nonsense, got fracking, undid all Osborne’s fiscal and wage control insanities, build some more road space, underpasses, bridges and runways, cancelled the climate change act, simplified and reduced taxes, relaxed planning obstructions and halved the size of the hugely over bloated state.

    Alas May seems to be just another Libdim so far. Almost all of her decisions so far have been wrong.

    • fedupsoutherner
      Posted November 3, 2016 at 1:29 pm | Permalink

      Lifelogic

      Contract for Difference payments and subsidies for onshore wind are supposed to be stopping next April (not before time) but Scotland is still pushing for more time with this. Right now 221 turbines are being erected and they want more and already admit that the big boys won’t need subsidies now as they are earning enough from what they already have with subsidies. There is also talk of making the tips of turbines 150m high. Ridiculous for anyone living near a wind farm. We need reliable power from gas and nuclear and not intermittent power.

  5. Peter D Gardner
    Posted November 3, 2016 at 6:36 am | Permalink

    Unfortunately UK is bound by EU Public Purchasing rules and all companies are bound by EU Employment laws to advertise vacancies in the EU. It is insane that projects completing after the UK has left the EU should be subject to either. Mrs May should, in her Article 50 notice, put suspending them at the top of the Brexit agenda. The EU cannot reasonably refuse and there is nothing like an early agreement to build trust and goodwill in the negotiations. It’s tempting but unwise to act unilaterally: it invites refusal and inevitably results in a climbdown, loss of face and loss of trust and good will.

    • Peter D Gardner
      Posted November 3, 2016 at 6:38 am | Permalink

      I should add that all it requires is an MoU to cover the period until the treaties no longer apply.

  6. Foodie
    Posted November 3, 2016 at 6:39 am | Permalink

    “Meanwhile retail prices fell again last month in sterling terms, despite the fall in the pound.”
    People have got it into their heads that the world is short of food and so expect price rises anyway. In many food commodities we have a glut. A genuine one, not just for example the mountains of cheese which America has produced that can be explained in part because of the strong dollar with subsequent loss of export markets and prearranged ongoing farm subsidies. Food and many other retail commodities should indeed be decreasing in price despite Brexit. Fuel costs have been very low world-wide for some time which serves to increase amounts of investment sometimes in manufacturing.
    Gloomy forward figures from the BoE and The Treasury have sounded in the past as though their world is part of a sophisticated matrix-type trick upon their collective subconsciousness. Humankind is actually progressing faster now than at any other time in its history. It creates surplus with the greatest of ease.Who can deny that computer technology has boosted our agriculture and industry to undreamt of heights.

  7. Silktie
    Posted November 3, 2016 at 6:48 am | Permalink

    “Burberrys, for example, said UK retail sales were up 30% when worldwide sales were pretty flat…”
    This company is always exemplared when people speak of luxury goods in regard to export markets , usually China. Perhaps it is becoming less of a good example. Many people in China irrespective of their slowing economy have got over their phase of worshipping British and other western luxury goods. China is pretty good now at producing its own luxury goods and can afford to mark up their internal prices considerably because their goods are actually on a par in quality with those of western companies.
    Anyway it is nice that Burberrys is being assisted by a strong home market.

  8. Mark B
    Posted November 3, 2016 at 6:50 am | Permalink

    Good morning.

    Yes, all very good news and more egg on the faces of the doom-sayers. but can this last forever ? You cannot just keep building houses and think that that is a no cost option. Those houses are, unless you are an overseas investor, are for living in and, more people means more consumption of services. Transport, hospitals, schools, water and waste disposal, and not to forget both local and national governmental administration. The list is endless. And all has to be paid for.

    And let us not forget, most of this house building is going to be in England and the South East, so not much wealth creation elsewhere.

    All worth remembering that.

  9. Lifelogic
    Posted November 3, 2016 at 7:00 am | Permalink

    I read in the Telegraph that Sir Jeremy Heywood has said that the “Civil Service did its job” and was “scrupulous” during the build-up to the referendum, producing work “as we should, at pace and with accuracy”.

    Is he totally deluded or just blatantly lying? There is no other explanation. The civil service were actually part of the blatant remain propaganda outfit. Why does he remain in his job when his is so deluded or dishonest? Where were the preparations for Brexit, where was any balance? The BBC were even worse with their blatant bias and still clearly are.

    T May needs to take action against these still powerful forces of remain, but then she was part of the propaganda outfit too. She even falsely assured the nation we had control of our borders through Schengen. This when, as a long serving Home Secretary (who hugely failed on her immigration targets), she must have known this was a total lie.

    It was actually a blatant propaganda outfit trying to subvert the referendum result.

  10. It is going to rain
    Posted November 3, 2016 at 7:03 am | Permalink

    The OBR and the Treasury make forecasts. Well, I guess that is what they are supposed to do. Can’t fault them for that. Though with oil and other commodities behaving in an unforecastable manner and the number of people in our country also at this moment unforecastable , therefore demand being unforecastable then secret cameras should be put into the workplaces of the Treasury and OBR to see who it is who is responsible for tossing the coins for each prediction. Savings can be made by compulsory redundancies making sure no other job opportunities in Brexit offices have hit the headlines or this would be just passing the salary expenditures from one room to the other. Hardly worth the move.

  11. Lifelogic
    Posted November 3, 2016 at 7:32 am | Permalink

    Interesting to read Mark Palmer in the spectator today, about the huge queues at passport control at Gatwick. Very similar to my experience. Why is the border agency so dreadfully organised. It is not as if the numbers arriving are not entirely predictable, the airlines can clearly tell them well in advance. Clearly they need more staff at half term and school holidays, it is hardly rocket science. Still what does the border agency care about your inconvenience it costs them nothing.

    Happy to spend billions on the bonkers HS2, to get you to Birmingham 10 mins faster though, yet to hold you up at the airport for an hour to save a tiny pittance. Often a huge queue up to 30 mins to buy a train ticket too. Where is there sense of priority and getting the biggest bang for the buck?

    Just why are they not meeting the entirely predictable demand? They take more than enough cash in air duty and airport fees after all. Why ruin the end of people’s holidays to save almost nothing?

  12. Statuesque Statesman
    Posted November 3, 2016 at 7:41 am | Permalink

    Off Topic:
    So, yesterday former Chancellor Lord Darling said the Brexit vote will batter the UK economy.
    He also implied the 48% who voted Remain knew what they were doing and stated the 52% who voted Leave were confused, tricked and otherwise wrong and no doubt were regretting their wrongness.
    It is upsetting that he views our economy or anyone else’s economy for that matter as something fixed in one place like a Miliband Stone. That the economic weather shalt beat down upon it from above and from all around and it shalt be worn away, crumble and be destroyed or “battered” as he puts it.
    One is reminded of the silly argument when after it was discovered our economy weathered Brexit and did not fall into recession that it was only because “we lowered the value of the Pound”. In other words we did not stand in the pouring rain like a lost penguin but did something. We moved! Moving about a bit seems to destroy every remainder argument. If we all move more than 3mph as we argue with high ranking Remainers we’ll soon lose them.

  13. acorn
    Posted November 3, 2016 at 7:50 am | Permalink

    Mr Carney is worried about the large expansion in household debt that is holding up the economy. It is still too early to start celebrating. Currency hedges and forward contracts won’t tail off until the second quarter of next year . There’s a classic car importer on one of our local industrial estates, that is still buying at $1.45 to the Pound, for the next two months .

  14. Nig l
    Posted November 3, 2016 at 7:58 am | Permalink

    With all this fantastic news and growth we still have a current account deficit. Once again growth seems to be fuelled by a massive uptake of personal debt. You also have a massive unfounded public sector pension time bomb that has been kicked into the long grass and the NHS, unless healthcare is reformed, will collapse or need vast more investment. Growth cannot continue for ever, in fact the economic cycle would suggest that a downturn is ‘just’ around the corner so. Interest rates will increase sooner rather than later with inflation soaring due to too much money in circulation and the increase in the cost of imported goods, so unless mr Hammond is cautious, your house of cards, will collapse and once again, we will pay for this hubristic approach.

  15. Denis Cooper
    Posted November 3, 2016 at 8:07 am | Permalink

    Well, in a couple of hours at 10 am we should know whether the High Court has sided with the bad losers or with the mass of the people who voted on the basis of the crystal clear promise:

    “This is your decision. The government will implement what you decide.”

    On the penultimate page of the official leaflet delivered to every household:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/515068/why-the-government-believes-that-voting-to-remain-in-the-european-union-is-the-best-decision-for-the-uk.pdf

    At a cost to the taxpayers of £9.3 million, and in the full knowledge of parliamentarians who raised no objection to that promise being made before the vote, having previously eschewed multiple opportunities to assert a claim to control the service of an Article 50 notice that the UK intends to leave the EU.

  16. The Prangwizard
    Posted November 3, 2016 at 8:09 am | Permalink

    The potash mine must be protected against foreign ownership even minorities.It will have a life of many decades and it would be dereliction to concede. We can no longer afford to allow profits and cash flows to be drained out of economy as we have in the past.

    • JJE
      Posted November 3, 2016 at 3:54 pm | Permalink

      Bit late for that. Get on Google and take a look at the royalty deal Gina Rhinehart secured.

  17. Anonymous
    Posted November 3, 2016 at 8:34 am | Permalink

    Well.

    According to the London Evening Standard list will be our ‘last Merry Christmas’ owing to Brexit – in a report from London traders. The rest of the paper is full of Brexit hatred.

    The main news outlets are putting nothing but a bad news spin on Brexit. They are determined to have soft Brexit (no Brexit.)

    • Anonymous
      Posted November 3, 2016 at 8:35 am | Permalink

      this, not ‘list’.

  18. Lifelogic
    Posted November 3, 2016 at 8:36 am | Permalink

    So Amber Rudd informs us 50% of people released from jail reoffend within one year. I assume however this is just the crimes that are detected so the could easily be as much as ten times as many committed by people recently released.

    So the real figure could well be far nearer 100% of them. This is rather a lot of crimes many of them violent and with very serious consequences for people. Prison (as currently organised) clearly does not deter them very much, if at all. So should be be releasing as many as we do? A lot of crime could clearly be prevented by not doing.

    • CdBrux
      Posted November 3, 2016 at 12:03 pm | Permalink

      We should be doing a far better job of rehabilitating them. Best practice needs to be found and spread and then improved still more.

  19. Denis Cooper
    Posted November 3, 2016 at 8:42 am | Permalink

    It’s still early days, but my attitude on the economic effects of leaving the EU – if and when that eventually happens – is not casual but it is fairly sanguine, because I know that the overall economic effects of being in the EU have been no more than marginal.

    However I expect our government to be prepared to take both defensive and offensive actions of various kinds if leading continental politicians persist in their stupid, spiteful and hypocritical determination to disrupt our trade not on any economic but on merely political grounds, despite the imposition of such trade sanctions being in breach of the EU treaties and wider “international law”.

    A couple of days ago Philip Hammond announced plans to spend £1.9 billion to build up our capacity for cyber-warfare, both defensive and offensive, so that we will be better able to strike back if we are attacked; similarly the government should be setting up a planning taskforce to anticipate any economic attacks by our lovely “European partners” and define the means both to defeat them and retaliate effectively to cause them far more pain than they can cause us.

    It is a pity that we are heading in that direction, but it is them not us who speak with pride of being “intransigent”, and it was one of their quislings in this country who spoke about his foreign friends giving us a “punishment beating” if we dared to vote to leave the EU, and there is much to be said for the adage:

    “Si vis pacem, para bellum”,

    “If you wish for peace, prepare for war”.

    Which I find is actually the motto of the Royal Navy, and also the electronic warfare training station at RAF Spadeadam:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RAF_Spadeadam

  20. stred
    Posted November 3, 2016 at 8:51 am | Permalink
    • fedupsoutherner
      Posted November 3, 2016 at 1:32 pm | Permalink

      Stred Yes of course Swansea lagoon can spawn a tidal power industry but can industry afford the cost of the energy from it???? I doubt it. Just another nail in the coffin for British industry.

  21. Bert Young
    Posted November 3, 2016 at 8:58 am | Permalink

    On the other hand Supermarkets and Retailers have warned that the cost of supplies will hit consumers – a 4% hike in the cost of living has been indicated . Devaluing the currency and its knock-on effects is not good news ; equally the uncertainty of the outcome of the American election has unsettled the attitude of investors of all descriptions .

    Today , at 10 am the High Court announces its judgement on whether we live in a democracy or not . I am disgusted that such a procedure has been allowed and that the likes of Kerr have over-ridden the choice of the people . Voices from within Germany are also stoking up the pressure to prevent Brexit ; German dominance must not be allowed to stop our freedom .

    • Bert Young
      Posted November 3, 2016 at 12:05 pm | Permalink

      I have just caught up with the news that the country is now being ruled by the High Court and we no longer live in a democracy . The appeal that has now been launched has to succeed and the function of the High Court re-designed . A small group of Judges cannot over-rule the majority decision of the country ; we are on the brink of a civil revolt !!.

  22. Newmania
    Posted November 3, 2016 at 8:59 am | Permalink

    The UK has cut the deficit by just £2.3 billion or so in the first six months of this year and interest rates are sub-zero; good lord they are selling houses … .Residual fiscal restraint cannot be sustained in the desperate two years ahead and the Brexit PM has just had to grovel publicly before Mark Carney. Inflation is already getting started and I see it is predicted to hit 4% next year.
    Brexit voices hail as a triumph saving Nissan jobs that only their foolishness imperilled and in this mad hatters tea party everyone forgets we are still in the EU. Parliament is now a Weimarish talking shop for trivia, while all economic decisions are political with one aim, which is defer pain until post article 50 .This as close to a totalitarian state as we have been in my lifetime.
    The arguments, if they even matter anymore, are simple. You not locate a Plant whose purpose to export to Europe in the worst place in Europe to do so. You do not found a Nations future on a plummeting currency and emergency low interest rates . End of .
    One would feel less enraged if there was any way to vote against this astonishing act of self harm but with only Daily Mail and Morning Star shades of opinion represented anyone located in Times FT Guardian (sane bits of the Torygraph ) territory sitting like Lear in the stocks

    • Ed Mahony
      Posted November 3, 2016 at 12:31 pm | Permalink

      An old friend of mine has nearly blown his marriage to a great woman after having an affair and fathering a child.
      – Mid-life crisis.
      He’s even been talking recently about getting a red porsche, even though he can’t really afford one.
      – This is not the person I knew when we were in our twenties. I think he’s just gone a bit bonkers. Like many of the older Brexiteers have gone a bit bonkers, looking for some kind of a kick in their twilight years.

      • Edward2
        Posted November 4, 2016 at 8:49 am | Permalink

        Silly.

  23. Antisthenes
    Posted November 3, 2016 at 9:07 am | Permalink

    Even being a member of the EU and with all the protectionism and anti-competitive nature of the EU the UK is still a good place for businesses. The Anglo Saxon attitude to trade (free trade) and business practices is superior to most of the rest of Europe. Even with the handicap of hard left trade unions and a none too professional business class. The former fortunately not so disruptively powerful now thanks to Margaret Thatcher and the latter by importing superior professional thinking. Our attachment to monarchy, democracy and suspicion of authority helps. Although the battle to preserve the last two is a difficult one as the left is constantly attempting to undermine them. With too much success for our own good. Being outside of the EU the UK has the possibility of being even better.

    Brussels no doubt know that and are considerably concerned as they wish to maintain the continental way. Perhaps thinking Germany is the perfect example that it works. Forgetting that Germany is a special case. It is actually mercantilist (for Brussels that ticks all the boxes) and succeeds because of it’s peoples inherent attribute of discipline and hard work (something they share with the Japanese). It also has the ability to accept with alacrity devaluation internally and externally. Internally labour costs are kept low with the unions blessings and the euro acts like the pound is for the UK at the moment externally. Most of the other continental nations are floundering under the EU system but then they would not change much if they were out of the EU. Nobody really wants to do business there.

    • Ed Mahony
      Posted November 3, 2016 at 1:49 pm | Permalink

      ‘The Anglo Saxon attitude to trade (free trade) and business practices is superior to most of the rest of Europe’

      – I’m sorry but boasting like this is not very British. The British, at their best, are modest by nature (and don’t take themselves too seriously with a heavy dose of humour). And DO rather than TALK about how great they are.

      Our economy, for years, has been on par with the French, and below that of the Germans, the Dutch, and the Scandinavians, and don’t forget the business abilities of the Milanese, the Catalans, the Basques, the Flemings, and many others – and give Eastern Europe time (they’ve just come out of Communism) – I mean the Romanians (with the French) were responsible for producing the Dacia Duster (one of the best cars from Europe in recent years).

      The Anglo Saxon way is hard work, modesty and humour. and NOT talking about how ‘superior’ you are.

      • Antisthenes
        Posted November 4, 2016 at 9:15 am | Permalink

        If boasting it was unintentional. To me it is an obvious fact the British attitude to trade is that it should be free and on the continent that it should not be which makes doing business here better than on the continent. Free trade made Britain and the USA the great economic powers they became. Unfortunately the trend has been toward more protectionism as progressive and EU thinking has become more dominant but the will to resit is still prevalent. Only left wing economists and the Trump and the like do not wish to resist it. To their shame they encourage it thereby denying consumers the best goods and services at the best price from whether it comes.

        You say there are those on the continent who are not of a mercantilist mind set and they have proven business abilities. You may be correct on the latter but not on the former. The latter considerably helped by practising the former. Germany being the past master of it. The whole raison d’etre of the single market is to protect it’s members from foreign competition because they fear it(a very much misplaced fear) the UK generally and historically in principle does not. Giving it the potential to be a great trading nation. It was once and it can do it again shorn of the malignant influence of the EU, socialists, progressives and job keepers at any price.

        There is a continental Europe business practice idea and and an Anglo sphere one that is quite different. The latter being much superior. The differences have been becoming blurred because of the EU and left wing thinking. However as both of those have little relationship to reality especially as globalisation is growing not shrinking protectionists will find they will fail and those who embrace free trade will prosper.

  24. Jerry
    Posted November 3, 2016 at 9:22 am | Permalink

    Celibate whilst you can John, the bonus afforded by the fall in the pound will not last for long, prices are already increasing for many manufactures and thus retail prices will fallow as stock is replaced (which might explain why UK retail sales were up 30%, people buying now [1] before the inevitable price increases) all adding to inflationary pressures which will sap the value of savings and disposable incomes.

    Brexit could turn out to be the Tories ‘winter of discontent’ come 2020, government economic policy not being the problem but the government blamed all the same.

    As for house sales, well of course when there is a housing shortage if more houses are built or more mortgages are provided [1] they will sell, that is not an indicator of a healthy economy, more the dire state of our housing market and (rental) stock.

    [1] [2] both perhaps adding to our future problems by inflating the balloon called Debt

  25. oldtimer
    Posted November 3, 2016 at 9:47 am | Permalink

    The decline in sterling certainly offers opportunities for import substitution – or on shoring to reverse some of the off shoring seen during the period when the sterling was overvalued. For some products, such as fashion clothing, proximity to market plus a devalued pound should offer a significant incentive.

  26. Edward2
    Posted November 3, 2016 at 9:48 am | Permalink

    Several small companies I know have got busier since the vote to leave the EU
    They have found orders returning to them from the EU and China
    Buyers are looking for faster lead times better quality better after sales service and are seeing price rises due to the rise in the dollar

  27. Ed Mahony
    Posted November 3, 2016 at 10:27 am | Permalink

    I’m not here to flatter you, but why haven’t you been invited to join the Three Brexiteers in government as D’artagnan (I’m being serious about the ‘join’ bit).
    I want Brexit to work (not just economically but in terms of geopolitics as well – although I would have preferred we remained in the EU and tried to reform it – but we must follow the will of the people and get on with it) but I really think the three Brexiteers are struggling with the complexity of Brexit (I’m not saying Brexit isn’t possible, I’m just saying it’s incredibly complex – and I think many Brexiteers would agree with this).

  28. John B
    Posted November 3, 2016 at 10:54 am | Permalink

    Just listening to LBC commenting on the High Court decision that Parliament must vote on Article 50. They say that, unless the decision is overturned on appeal, this will mean that the government will not be able to take us out of the single market and therefore, to all intents and purposes, we will not be leaving the EU. What redress will the winners of the referendum then have, and why did we bother having a referendum in the first place?

    • BobE
      Posted November 3, 2016 at 12:00 pm | Permalink

      We will have to bring back UKIP and continue the fight.

    • Mark Watson
      Posted November 3, 2016 at 12:46 pm | Permalink

      The vote (if there is one) will must be on whether we should trigger article 50, not the terms of the negotiation.
      Nice to see Parliament getting precious about its sovereignty, having given it away progressively over the last 40+ years. Perhaps this judgment may be used in the future to stop any further attempts by Parliament to give away sovereignty to any other supranational organisation.

    • stred
      Posted November 3, 2016 at 1:39 pm | Permalink

      I listened to this gloating programme by LBC’s leftie ignorant windbag while travelling and the claims about lies and the constitutional process were so completely biased that I was glad when I went out of range. It was so annoying that I made a mental note to listen to the adverts and not ever use these products. It doesn’t make much difference but make the cortisol level subside.

    • Newmania
      Posted November 3, 2016 at 6:04 pm | Permalink

      .. I `m sorry could you remind me what the subject of the referendum was ? Do me this favour and I will remind you on how many occassion the country was promised there would be a Brexit bonus and an unchaged trading position .
      Were the country to be offred the option of EEA membership or similiar combined with an unrelenting pressurre on rest of the world migration it would win near unanimous support and relief
      Hard Brexit would not win at all

  29. fedupsoutherner
    Posted November 3, 2016 at 1:35 pm | Permalink

    Why did we bother with a referendum and what is the point in any vote in this country again??? All this was foreseen by many of us who never quite believed we would ever leave the EU.

  30. am
    Posted November 3, 2016 at 4:48 pm | Permalink

    Glad to see the mention of import substitution. Need more of it and it may be a benefit of a lower sterling to create it. Britain could be avoiding import cost price inflation if it had continued manufacturing in key areas. The absence has led to unnecessary import dependence. Building products and such like sectors should be investigated by the gov and incentives offered with care.

    • Newmania
      Posted November 3, 2016 at 6:39 pm | Permalink

      Perhaos some sort of five year plan to increase tractor production would help …?

  31. stred
    Posted November 3, 2016 at 6:09 pm | Permalink

    It appears this lady Mrs Miller, who is spending a lot of money saving us from losing our European rights or voting to decide our own rights, is linked to an organisation (link below ed).
    http://www.philanthropy-impact.org/article/nurturing-philanthropy

  • About John Redwood


    John Redwood won a free place at Kent College, Canterbury, and graduated from Magdalen College Oxford. He is a Distinguished fellow of All Souls, Oxford. A businessman by background, he has set up an investment management business, was both executive and non executive chairman of a quoted industrial PLC, and chaired a manufacturing company with factories in Birmingham, Chicago, India and China. He is the MP for Wokingham, first elected in 1987.

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