Pound rises in relief at change of Bank of England stance

The Remain media were ever willing to report the falling pound, but have gone silent in the last couple of days as the pound has risen against the dollar and Euro. All it needed was the Bank to say it would not cur rates again and not print yet more money, and the pound bounced. If the Bank would restore rates to where they were pre the vote it would rise further. It reached $1.2485 today compared to a low below $1.20.

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86 Comments

  1. Posted November 4, 2016 at 1:39 pm | Permalink

    Erm, didn’t something else happen yesterday? I do wonder whether I am actually reading RT sometimes.

    • Posted November 4, 2016 at 7:53 pm | Permalink

      Yes, there was a judgement, but no, it won’t change much. If it did cause an election (which would not be unwelcome) it might improve the composition of the House…. The RT comment is bizarre – if we don’t support the BBC line we are suddenly Ruskies? Try and be more rational JW…..

      zorro

    • Posted November 4, 2016 at 8:43 pm | Permalink

      Indeed. It seems clear that the pound has risen in partial reversal of the Brexit fall as the legal system offers the prospect of frustrating Brexit. The conclusion above should therefore rather be that since the markets continue to worry about the consequences of Brexit, the Govt should feel under huge pressure to come forward with radical supply side measures to restore confidence.

  2. Posted November 4, 2016 at 1:42 pm | Permalink

    Why all of a sudden are remainers so concerned about British sovereignty, having be more than happy to cede it to Brussels?

    John, a key remainer argument goes unchallenged. It asserts we will not be able to trade well unless in the SM. Please can someone point out Japan exports a huge value of services, let alone goods into Europe, no problem. I use various American services (mainly internet) no problem and I notice Pringles crisps and iPads’ find their way into my home no problem.

    Too many prominent Leavers talk in abstract terms about trade, they need to bring it into sharp focus with real world examples.

    Also polls keep being commissioned by remainers showing the majority want to remain. Again we are letting remain take the advantage.

    • Posted November 4, 2016 at 6:55 pm | Permalink

      Indeed very keen indeed to cede it to the antidemocratic EU and without any consent from the public.

      Of course the pound will rise further if we get a sensible budget that undoes all the damage Osborne did with his wage controls and endless tax and tax complexity increases. Further again if we cancelled HS2 and May looked more like a real Tory rather than a cross between Heseltine, Milliband, Clegg & Harriet Harman.

    • Posted November 4, 2016 at 7:54 pm | Permalink

      Indeed, it is rich that Remainers are suddenly crowing about Parliamentary sovereigny having mildly acquiesced in its castration over the last 40 years!

      zorro

    • Posted November 5, 2016 at 8:22 am | Permalink

      I saw Dominic Grieve pontificating on TV. This is the man who when he was the Shadow Attorney General advised Cameron that Tory MPs should not vote for an amendment to affirm and defend the sovereignty of Parliament against potential attack through the Lisbon Treaty, on the grounds that if passed it would create “a constitutional contradiction”. I mean Division No 120 on March 5th 2008:

      http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200708/cmhansrd/cm080305/debtext/80305-0024.htm

      “New Clause 9

      SUPREMACY OF PARLIAMENT

      ‘Notwithstanding any provision of the European Communities Act 1972, nothing in this Act shall affect or be construed by any court in the United Kingdom as affecting the supremacy of the United Kingdom Parliament.’.— [Mr. Cash.]

      Brought up, and read the First time.

      Question put, That the clause be read a Second time:—

      The Committee proceeded to a Division.

      The Chairman: Order. I ask the Serjeant at Arms to investigate the delay in the No Lobby.

      The Committee having divided: Ayes 48, Noes 380.”

      Our host was one of the small number of Tory MPs who ignored the request to abstain in that vote, and did not go home when he received the text message from the whips saying that there were no more official votes that evening:

      http://ebooksfromblogs.weebly.com/uploads/1/5/5/7/1557501/ben_brogan.pdf

      “While all eyes were on the tragi-comic silliness of the Lib Dems, few spotted the vote on New Clause 9, proposed by Bill Cash, which would prevent changes in the Treaty being used in British courts to challenge the supremacy of Parliament. Mr Cameron asked his troops to abstain, but 40 ignored him and voted in favour, including 12 from the new intake … ”

      “UPDATE: A robustly euro-sceptic MP has just shown me the text messages he received from the Chief Whip’s office yesterday evening. The first, at 19.17, gave Tory MPs a green-light to go home by telling them there would be “no further official votes”. The division on Mr Cash’s clause was called seven minutes later, at 19.24.”

  3. Posted November 4, 2016 at 1:46 pm | Permalink

    The Telegraph, Express, Wall Street Journal, The Sun, Financial Times, and others, all report that the rise in pound sterling is down to Court’s decision on Article 50 (leading to the markets thinking ‘hard’ Brexit less likely).

    Reply They are wrong. Markets repriced when the Bank said no more cuts and no more QE

    • Posted November 4, 2016 at 1:49 pm | Permalink

      ‘Pound rises against dollar AND euro after Government lose Brexit High Court case’ – The Express

      • Posted November 4, 2016 at 5:09 pm | Permalink

        Ed, you are correct. I have been tracking the pound against media comment for three weeks now. Hard Brexit puts the Pound Down. Soft, or less likely Brexit, the Pound goes up.

        BTW. My old fellow number crunchers around the continent, think the UK has gone mad. They are using expletive phrases in languages that Google Translate can’t handle!

        • Posted November 4, 2016 at 5:33 pm | Permalink

          While I think of it, have a listen to Hardtalk at http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37836099

          Interview with the WTO boss. Interesting.

        • Posted November 5, 2016 at 8:08 am | Permalink

          Looking at it from outside usually with a poor grasp of the details the rest of the world could reasonably think that we’ve gone mad.

      • Posted November 4, 2016 at 5:34 pm | Permalink

        I don’t really care.
        BOE has spent last 8 years trying t get the Pound lower.
        It and Brexit will clearly boost our competitiveNess and having lived through the 70s 2.8pc inflation isn’t too horrendous.
        What’s your point?

        • Posted November 4, 2016 at 9:33 pm | Permalink

          ‘It and Brexit will clearly boost our competitiveNess’

          – The way to boost our competitiveness is to offer better services and create better goods instead of allowing politicians to mess around with our economy over Brexit.

      • Posted November 4, 2016 at 7:57 pm | Permalink

        Haha…. Ed Mahony quoting the Express for proof of his assertions!

        zorro

      • Posted November 4, 2016 at 9:20 pm | Permalink

        Ed Mahony

        I think I see your problem here. The Express is a newspaper written by journalists. The money markets are driven by traders who watch their screens then act accordingly . My son is an FX trader, he doesn’t read the express or the sun etc, and he certainly doesn’t trade based on what journalists write.

        • Posted November 4, 2016 at 9:57 pm | Permalink

          I also mentioned the Wall Street Journal and others.

          The reason I mentioned the Express is to demonstrate that even a fanatically pro Brexit paper such as the Express wouldn’t release such information like this if they weren’t confident about the claim – because such a claim seriously undermines their bigger argument about Brexit.

    • Posted November 4, 2016 at 5:07 pm | Permalink

      Daily Mail, Nasdaq, Reuters – Opinion, Bloomberg, and others also reports hike in sterling due to Court’s decision on Article 50.
      WSJ blog also follows up with a piece about monetary policy having little effect on sterling – that it’s all about ‘political risks’ (e.g. Brexit).

      Reply I disagree. Its about interest rate differentials, QE and the trend of the dollar

    • Posted November 4, 2016 at 6:09 pm | Permalink

      John is right.I checked the pound rate first when the Service sector PMI smashed expectations, st 9:30 it went up a little then, I checked when Carney started speaking and it went up to 1.25.There was no change in the rate at 10:30 when the court decision was made.

      • Posted November 5, 2016 at 8:02 am | Permalink

        10.00, not 10.30.

    • Posted November 4, 2016 at 6:58 pm | Permalink

      Look at timings and you will see JR is right.

      Leaving has huge economic advantages as well as democratic ones. The markets are slowly realising this now.

      • Posted November 5, 2016 at 1:06 am | Permalink

        What on earth are you talking about???

        Do you follow real time trades?

        I do because my job depends on it. The £ is a political instrument. Check the real time trends. JR is completely wrong on this one.

        Unfortunately JR chooses to delete links to real time graphs but you can check this yourself.

        The BoE statements are important but are now less significant to statements from politicians or the judiciary.

        To claim otherwise is just counter factual.

    • Posted November 4, 2016 at 8:04 pm | Permalink

      If you cut interest rates and inflate QE you will put downward pressure on the currency (particularly if the move was not necessary in the first place)… If you change your mind for the future, the markets will react, it’s called sentiment.

      zorro

  4. Posted November 4, 2016 at 1:51 pm | Permalink

    The £ rose immediately after the legal ruling about Brexit. The dollar was around $1.50 on 22nd June 2016. When it plummeted you said that it was good news, now that it has risen slightly you say it is good news. Rather fickle I’d say.

    Let’s face it you want YOUR Brexit and the fact can be made to fit.

    And what about your Brexiteer colleague resigning today – wrong sort of Brexit was it?

    • Posted November 4, 2016 at 5:07 pm | Permalink

      Wrong sort of colleague.

      • Posted November 5, 2016 at 6:09 am | Permalink

        Excellent – well said Rose.

    • Posted November 4, 2016 at 5:43 pm | Permalink

      The Pound rises and falls because , in part, those who operate the Market in currency exchange watch for any events and follow any movement to make themselves money. They operate by many interacting criteria. They look for “pips” For example. if you were a gambler deserving treatment you would sit for hours with finger poised over your computer mouse with headphones on awaiting the decision in December of the government’s Appeal against the High Court decision. You would be ill-advised to do so because massive computers world-wide with micro-second programmed responses will buy or sell immediately which will create a “movement” which other computer algorithms will initiate buy and sell automatically in enormous amounts. Life is a gamble. The Pound is a a chip on the world casino. That’s all. Nothing has changed fundamentally. You still go to work. Get treated like a dog and lick the hand of the boss in the EU or outside the EU.

      • Posted November 6, 2016 at 11:14 am | Permalink

        Not only that but the exchanges have , contrary to the law in most countries , allowed insiders to have more direct and faster links to the exchanges than private investors .

        Your order would likely be intercepted , matched and filled by insiders who have already done the same to an opposite trade from another private investor before you would even have had a chance see it – even if you were running the same algorithms as the insiders .

        Flash-trading allowing insiders to skim a margin off other peoples trades .

        Why is nothing done about it ? Is there a counter argument that it creates liquidity ?

    • Posted November 4, 2016 at 6:16 pm | Permalink

      Ian Murray

      I don’t know what sort of Brexit we will get yet but I do feel the MP that resigned today was out of order considering he voted to leave. He is reported to have said that like some voters he didn’t really think that voting out would mean out. How stupid is that?

      • Posted November 4, 2016 at 10:40 pm | Permalink

        Sounds to me like good riddance. Perhaps we will now get a real Conservative to stand in his place.

      • Posted November 5, 2016 at 8:00 am | Permalink

        He claims that he voted to leave, but it was a secret ballot.

    • Posted November 5, 2016 at 2:50 am | Permalink

      Personally I would never have argued that the currency should remain strong through this process.

      Brexit means tough times ahead and I think most people who voted for it realise that.

      For them freedom of movement equates to the same thing and that is personal poverty.

    • Posted November 5, 2016 at 7:04 pm | Permalink

      It’s more than money, you know.
      The problem that so many people have is that they fail to realise that most Leavers did not consider the pound in their pockets when they voted. Now, that must be shocking to some people, whose entire world hangs on their finances, but sovereignty and freedom are more than that.
      It was a gut feeling that we were being ruled and indeed peopled by other countries, and here was a chance to achieve some sort of liberty.
      These concepts weighed more in people’s minds than the exchange rate, which goes up and down anyway. I sometimes feel how small we would seem to our ancestors if they could see the money-grubbing level of this debate.

  5. Posted November 4, 2016 at 1:53 pm | Permalink

    However they DID report it rose after the High Court judgement. Stand by for them to turn their attention to inflation and say it is a catastrophe if it gets to 2% (even though that has been the Government target since Gordon Brown was Chancellor).

  6. Posted November 4, 2016 at 1:58 pm | Permalink

    I’m glad you agree it is to do with the B of E and not the verdict of the vexatious case as the EUphoric broadcasters are maintaining.

    I can’t understand the government’s lawyers not questioning the judge’s conflict of interest. Unless they are working for the other side. My grandfather used to say: “lawyers are never on one’s side.”

    See below for the Hoffmann precedent:
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/1999/oct/11/law.theguardian

  7. Posted November 4, 2016 at 2:06 pm | Permalink

    Mathematical correlation between rising pound and sinking Redwood holds good .

    • Posted November 5, 2016 at 2:51 am | Permalink

      If that makes you poorer then I can live on thin air and feel full.

    • Posted November 5, 2016 at 3:39 am | Permalink

      An inconvenient mathematical correlation for you, Newmania.

      The more Hard Brexit Theresa May talks the higher her poll ratings.

  8. Posted November 4, 2016 at 2:10 pm | Permalink

    Except the BBC is claiming that the rise in the pound is owing to the High Court decision against Art 50.

    If we’re going to ignore democratic will does this mean we are any longer morally obliged to pay our BBC licences ?

    If millions refuse to pay how will they cope with prosecutions ?

    • Posted November 4, 2016 at 5:20 pm | Permalink

      ‘Except the BBC is claiming that the rise in the pound is owing to the High Court decision against Art 50’

      – Why pick on the BBC?

      They’re all saying it: The Express, The Mail, The Telegraph, The Sun, The Wall Street Journal, Reuters – Opinion, Bloomberg, The Financial Times, Nasdaq and others – that the hike in the pound is owed to the High Court decision regarding Art 50.

      • Posted November 5, 2016 at 2:52 am | Permalink

        I pick on the BBC because every news item is couched in terms of Brexit is Bad.

        • Posted November 5, 2016 at 9:58 am | Permalink

          I can’t stand the left-wing / politically-correct bias of the BBC. But with respect, please get over it. There’s far more to the BBC than politics. It’s ultimately about creating great programmes – arts, documentaries, film, children’s TV, and so on. Programmes that are (or should be and have been in the past) original and creative and that stimulate the imagination in people so that we don’t end up like boring robots like so much of the inane TV in American is (and scientists have proven the negative effects of bad television on people, above all, on children).
          So many abroad envy us for the BBC. It is, or should be, a national, cultural treasure like Shakespeare or London (fantastic city that the government is now going to damage to a strong degree with noise pollution from airplanes).
          So please can people stop putting down the BBC all the time. And instead do something more positive like send in some excellent idea you have for an arts programme or a documentary or whatever.
          Regards.

        • Posted November 5, 2016 at 1:46 pm | Permalink

          and maybe because you are not curious enough to compare various information sources. BBC bashing is so “the order of the day” on this site that it has become very funny.

    • Posted November 4, 2016 at 6:59 pm | Permalink

      We were never morally obliged, quite the reverse. Just legally obliged.

  9. Posted November 4, 2016 at 2:16 pm | Permalink

    The UK pound is rising because the prospect of the UK leaving the EU is receding.

    Reply Nonsense!

    • Posted November 4, 2016 at 7:59 pm | Permalink

      Do you really believe that Denis?

      zorro

      • Posted November 5, 2016 at 7:58 am | Permalink

        Yes, I do. Whether or not currency market traders are fundamentally justified in shifting the external value of sterling in response to various changes in the perceived likelihood that we will leave the EU (and/or leave the EU Single Market and/or customs union) is open to debate, but there is no doubt that it has been happening. Now that the government has to get an Act passed by both Houses of Parliament before it can even put in the notice that the UK intends to leave the EU – unlike Theresa May I have no confidence that the Supreme Court will overturn the judgment of the High Court, why should they? – and so before the other governments will even agree to start negotiations the odds have moved further against us ever leaving the EU. Which, it seems to me, is what David Cameron hoped would happen when he double-reneged after the referendum.

    • Posted November 5, 2016 at 9:11 am | Permalink

      Spot on Denis. That is how the continental punters are playing it.

      • Posted November 5, 2016 at 1:50 pm | Permalink

        “continental punters”? No other currency traders in New York, Tokyo, Shanghai, …?
        The hate of anything “continental” and some pre-insurrectional posts on this blog make me sick.

  10. Posted November 4, 2016 at 2:33 pm | Permalink

    John,

    Please show your readers some respect. The largest recovery in the pound was exactly correlated to the judgement from the High Court on Article 50 being announced because it was perceived, rightly or wrongly, that the UK is less likely to have a hard Brexit.

    at 10.00-10.15am GMT.

    Reply What nonsense. It is about interest rate differential and rate of money creation. No-one sensible i n the markets thinks Brexit is now less likely!

    • Posted November 4, 2016 at 5:17 pm | Permalink

      ‘What nonsense’

      – Come on, sir. All the major relevant publications are reporting that the hike in pound was down to the Court ruling on Article 50. They can’t all be talking ‘nonsense’ as well!

      And the Wall Street Journal has just released a piece on why monetary policy has little to do with the pound at the moment – that it’s all about political risks (e.g. Brexit). (Unless the Wall Street Journal is talking ‘nonsense’ as well like the rest of them ..).

    • Posted November 4, 2016 at 5:33 pm | Permalink

      John,

      You are denying facts.

      The link that you removed had the real-time £:$ price.

      The bounce occurred exactly between 10.00 – 10.15 as the judgement was being read out. This was prior to the BoE statements. There was then a second smaller bounce after the BoE statement.

      Anyone interested in facts can verify this for themselves and judge whether I am quoting nonsense.

      It might be an inconvenient truth, but it is the truth none-the-less.

    • Posted November 4, 2016 at 7:40 pm | Permalink

      Really , the polls are moving against it and we are yet to get next years inflation interest rate hike and who knows a bond strike as well , we are reliant on foreign buyers to fund our escalating bor-rowing and the bolt has been shot
      So MPs demand a coherent and truthful plan, which will , of course look nothing like Brexits claims and people realise what they have done
      I wonder will it really go ahead under such circumstances ?
      We would certainly stay in the single market which is what the markets care about

      Your s Truly

      Enemy of The People

      • Posted November 4, 2016 at 10:11 pm | Permalink

        Well in fact we are reliant on foreign buyers to fund our trade deficit which is a problem caused at least in part by our membership of the Customs union which forbids us from making fta’s with non EU countries.
        It would help if Germany had not blocked free movement of services where the UK is strategically strong and may help our deficit.
        funny that

      • Posted November 5, 2016 at 2:39 am | Permalink

        You always were ‘Enemy of The People’ which is why we voted Brexit. One senses that Newmania (in his other life) has some notoriety in this regard.

        We got sick of arrogant British snobs like you, rubbing our noses in it while you scuttle off to a middle class enclave – our issue was not with the Eurocrats !

        We also voted against the judicial dictatorship that invokes prerogative in favour of the EU but never against it.

        • Posted November 5, 2016 at 12:53 pm | Permalink

          You have a fair point. The law is also about equity and fairness.

          The court would have been better to decide this was a “political matter” and return it to the political arena, without any judgement either way.

          It could have opined that that Brexit was an expression of sovereignty of the people and passed it back to parliament and government to deal with.

          I wonder if the judges will soon intervene and decide whether MP’s as a group and individuals have the right to ignore the will of the electorate? This would be a logical extension of the parliament must vote and decide.

          Is parliament a representative democracy (of the people, for those challenged by this concept ). Or is it something else which is, not democracy, rather like the EU we have voted to leave.

          Ultimately , we will leave, but we need a clear-out of the anti democrats.

          Plans need to be made to abolish or neutralize the House of Lords on this issue. That takes time start now.

    • Posted November 4, 2016 at 8:45 pm | Permalink

      @JR reply; Mr Lister never said Brexit is now less likely, he said some perceive that the UK is less likely to have a hard Brexit.

      Also a bit funny how the GBP gained before the BoE announced their interest rate decision, if it was simply down to speculation about interest rates why no significant movement before 10am and then a large jump, followed by a settling back down that tallies with the time-line of the government saying they will appeal and press on, only then was there a much smaller jump at Noon when the BoE made their announcement, most of which gains were actually lost in later trading.

    • Posted November 4, 2016 at 9:32 pm | Permalink

      David Lister et al

      Well in my experience FX traders tend to trade based on lots of different things however the rise in the pound according to

      The BBC say is was due to Fears of a Trump win

      http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/business-37869312

      The Sterling Traders website says it was due to BoE changes
      https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/gbp-live-today/5684-bank-of-england-gbp-v-eur-usd

      I suppose those of you that read the Sun, express and others can believe what they say if you want however my son who is an fx trader doesn’t agree with the newspapers .

      • Posted November 5, 2016 at 12:52 am | Permalink

        Oh first heavens sake, you don’t need to take your guidance from the Sun or your son.

        Just Google the real time currency exchange rate and check with the time of the judgement.

        If Mr Redwood didn’t remove my link you could follow the evidence easily yourself. But it only takes 2 minutes to research yourself.

        The link you have pointed to is also correct. It indicates the £ rose to a intra day high after the BoE statement. But this was a relatively small increase from the larger increase following the High Court judgem8.

      • Posted November 5, 2016 at 7:13 am | Permalink

        @libertarian; Walter does your ‘son’ also disagree with the time-line of FX trading on the day in question, that clearly shows a trading spike exactly in collation with the High Court ruling. Yes it could be coincidence but a spike following exactly the time of the ruling as if fingers were poised, that would be one hell of a coincidence…

  11. Posted November 4, 2016 at 2:52 pm | Permalink

    Yes the GBP has risen a little but compared to the losses it suffered back June and again last month it hasn’t even recovered last months falls never mind that stepping off the cliff edge fall it suffered back on the morning of June 24th, and what little gain the GBP has had today has been over shadowed by falls on the FTSE100 at over 87 points lower (as I type this), admittedly that is due to fears regarding the US election and not Brexit this time.

  12. Posted November 4, 2016 at 2:55 pm | Permalink

    Typo- “cur rates”

    Well done against the Labour MP today on LBC. He seems to support a doctrine of fear, or, ‘end of time scenario’ much like the Greens, and don’t worry about observed fact. Very much like medieval religious sectarianism. This kind of psyche seems epidemic globally lately.

    Q) if the private banks were to stop printing money ex nihilo instead of govt, would that have the same effect you speak of on the pound?

  13. Posted November 4, 2016 at 3:37 pm | Permalink

    Just returned from visiting New England. My cash and card rate was about 1.20-1.21. Typical. Some you win, some you lose!

  14. Posted November 4, 2016 at 3:49 pm | Permalink

    Remaining in the EU (but reforming it and taking a lead in that) is the only way forward. This is what Mrs Thatcher and Winston Churchill would have done (when they were at their prime).
    So much of what i hear from Brexiteers and Remainers (those not really wanting to reform the EU and/or just wanting concessions) is mediocre / fanciful / not the most ambitious position for this country.
    It’s delusional to think our country is going to be ‘glorious’ post-Brexit. Or that immigration isn’t going to be a serious problem remaining in the EU without trying to reform it.
    The only option is to remain in the EU whilst trying to reform it.
    Sure, we’re going to have to carry out the will of the people, but i’m pretty certain that at sometime in the not too distant future, a majority of the population are strongly going to become dissatisfied with Brexit.
    So we need to be ready. And that is to remain in the EU but trying to reform it. But in order to do that, that will take imagination, guts, brains, unity and the rest.
    Again, pretty certain, Mrs Thatcher and Winston Churchill would have fought for the remaining in, but reforming, the EU. An unusual, unpopular choice. But they didn’t worry about things like that. Which is why they’ve gone down as great (although they were both flawed as politicians as well) as opposed to mediocre and forgettable like most politicians.
    Happy to debate!
    Regards.

  15. Posted November 4, 2016 at 4:12 pm | Permalink

    I wonder: is it the pound doing better or the dollar being weak due to the uncertainties in next week’s US elections?
    The euro is still around 0.89 pound.
    What are the entrails saying for the £/$ rate at the end of next week, and the flight of crows?

    Reply The pound rose against the Euro as well following the Bank’s change of policy

    • Posted November 4, 2016 at 5:12 pm | Permalink

      Wall Street Journal says monetary policy is having little effect on the pound. That it’s all about ‘political risks’ (e.g. Brexit). http://on.wsj.com/2fk1T81

      • Posted November 4, 2016 at 9:36 pm | Permalink

        Ed Mahony

        Did you actually read the link you posted?

        I quote here directly from your link . “The pound was up nearly 1.2% against the U.S. dollar after the BOE’s announcement”

        • Posted November 4, 2016 at 10:03 pm | Permalink

          I didn’t mean to imply that the BOE announcement had no affect at all or that monetary policy in general has no affect on sterling. Of course. My main argument was that it was about the politics behind the court decision that was responsible for the real hike in sterling.

    • Posted November 4, 2016 at 5:30 pm | Permalink

      Not on Friday. If you are to go on writing this type of inanities, you should start to put the time window during which your comment is valid.

  16. Posted November 4, 2016 at 4:16 pm | Permalink

    You are not listening to the BBC properly.When the europhile judges did the right thing and restored our parliamentary democracy, the world, or at least the speculators, rejoiced and bought sterling to celebrate. It had nothing to do with Mr Carney changing his mind or giving forward guidance. No one takes any notice of the B of E anymore because we know everything will be wrong or changed before long, just as it has been since we started paying him £16k per week.

  17. Posted November 4, 2016 at 4:42 pm | Permalink

    Local newspapers support the local electoral bias of electorates. Regular positive items about local MPs are humoured. Articles about them are featured. Often showing them in a field of poppies, for example.minus the tiny irritating beetles.Whether this automatic bias is on a General Order from the Establishment or a journalistic/commercial/advertising gamble, or a bit of all, is unknown. But local newspapers sales are falling, rapidly.
    At some stage in our nation’s development it may be absolutely necessary for people to believe and be led by the media and indeed by politicians. The media is not working towards that goal, as their sales, to some extent, show.

  18. Posted November 4, 2016 at 4:55 pm | Permalink

    It really is time to shut down monetary policy as operated by central banks. The last eight years have proven beyond doubt,that monetary policy doesn’t work. The only bit of a central bank that requires saving is its regulation function and the payment and settlement function domestically and across currency areas. It should then be combined with a Treasury Cash (ex Debt) Management Office.

    On the BoE site it says “Bank Rate held at 0.25%, government bond purchases at £435bn and corporate bond purchases at up to £10bn”. All three of those functions depend on the BoE being back-stopped by the sovereign currency issuer, the UK Treasury; particularly the last two.

    Central Banks were part of a Gold Standard economy. They are unnecessary in Fiat Currency economies that we have had since 1971. Before the current US FED, the USA did not have a central bank for seventy five years!

    • Posted November 5, 2016 at 7:44 am | Permalink

      Under our present system the Bank is the currency issuer, not the Treasury, see what it says on the banknotes; the £435 billion of government bonds held by the Bank* all say that the Treasury owes the Bank* money; likewise the £1o billion of corporate bonds all say that the companies which issued them owe the Bank* money.

      * More exactly, the wholly owned subsidiary of the Bank.

      • Posted November 6, 2016 at 8:09 am | Permalink

        The Bank prints the Treasury “reserves” into paper money, it does not “issue” the sovereign currency. The Treasury issues and manufactures, its own coins from its own Mint. The Treasury can issue and “mint” a coin to any value it wishes, including a single coin, that could buy the whole of the BoE, if it didn’t already own it.

  19. Posted November 4, 2016 at 5:13 pm | Permalink

    With so many migrants and visitors coming into our country and interacting at work, at school, in university, in relationships temporary and permanent, also with our own people holidaying and fighting abroad and with their own children living abroad, one would think the media would be most careful just what image is painted of anywhere on earth. It does not. It tells lies which are met by immediate rebuttal by “Our John’s girlfriend who lives there.”
    Why should we pay a license fee for lies? It’s ok for a commercial media source like CNN as we dont’ pay them, though their ability to broadcast from the UK should stopped if it is on the basis of wholesome journalism. But why should we PAY the BBC for nonsense?

  20. Posted November 4, 2016 at 6:26 pm | Permalink

    So, the argument is that a low pound is bad and a high pound is good? Of course, if you have lots of pounds that could be correct. But, suppose you don’t have very many and you’re working in a steelworks.

    For your job to be viable, your employer, the UK based steelworks company, has to be economically viable. The chances of that are less if the pound is high. It won’t be able to compete with cheap imports.

    German economists have understood this for a long time now. The German State and the Bundesbank have done everything possible to keep their own currency as cheap as possible.

    We can’t have it both ways. We can’t have a German style export oriented economy if the pound is too high.

  21. Posted November 4, 2016 at 6:59 pm | Permalink

    I’ve been reading lots of articles about the thought process and legal niceties of yesterday’s high court ruling…and lawyers wonder why people hate them so much!

  22. Posted November 4, 2016 at 7:40 pm | Permalink

    http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/my-oxford/publications/347697
    Amongst other things in this link they say the market is wrong to think yesterday’s court ruling will mean it less likely for there to be a hard brexit.
    The pound is now at 1.2514.

    • Posted November 4, 2016 at 7:45 pm | Permalink

      Also with the oil price dropping and the pound rising brent crude in sterling terms has dropped over the last week from 42 to about 36.5. Bloomberg noticed that an extra 360,000 bbl are to be output from the north sea in December this year.

  23. Posted November 4, 2016 at 8:41 pm | Permalink

    “The people have spoken ? We don’t give a damn ” 3/11/16 30 minutes.
    I dare you to watch this John Redwood and I defy you to disagree with one word of it.

  24. Posted November 4, 2016 at 10:11 pm | Permalink

    Will Theresa May and other top UK politicians STOP using submissive body language when they meet EU leaders. Yet again we have Juncker putting his arms around Mrs May and guiding her about. Cameron used to let Barroso dominate him.

  25. Posted November 5, 2016 at 12:08 am | Permalink

    Isn’t the real issue with our economy not whether we’re inside the EU or not, or what the BOE does or doesn’t do, but how competitive our services and goods are in the world markets?

    If people want to leave the EU, then surely first we need to:
    1) Pay off our national debt to help pay for the costs involved in Brexit?
    2) Do everything we can to help our entrepreneurs, businesses and companies become as competitive as they can with their services and goods so that they can sell more *anywhere in the world more easily?

    * The problem with ‘anywhere in the world’, though, is that not all services and goods are equal (because by the laws of nature, some people and their businesses are stronger than others) which is why we will always need to sell our services and goods to those countries closest to us (e.g. the EU) to make the selling process easier and cheaper. Not forgetting all the geopolitical benefits of close ties with our nearest neighbours – economic, educational, scientific, security and so on (and how a prosperous and peaceful Europe benefits the UK economically as well), as well as working together and sharing resources in terms of responding to mass migration from Africa and the Middle East, the threat from terrorism, the threat from Russia, and more.

    Lastly, i have no doubt now, that Mrs Thatcher and Winston Churchill would be saying: stay in Europe but try and reform it (this is completely different to just trying to get concessions).

  26. Posted November 5, 2016 at 3:21 am | Permalink

    John Redwood

    Despite the attacks on you economic arguments on this forum I believe you are on the right side.

    I voted Brexit against the judicial dictatorship which runs our country and which enforces leftism in the guise of interpretation of EU directive and regulation. The judicial dictatorship which always sees prerogative in favour of the EU but never against.

    The people don’t realise that they voted Brexit against domestic foe: a Eurocrat is a Eurocrat and has never pretended to be otherwise. We weren’t invited to be in the EU but imposed ourselves on it, through the whims of lying British politicians. The Continentals are what they always have been and it is foolish of us to even try to change that.

    It matters not that Brexit fails so long as the judicial dictatorship and the leftist elites are seen to openly defy the British public – to this end there must be no second referendum.

    Hitherto the public have not realised that they have, in fact, voted against their own ruling class and not the innocent EU. Well they’re about to discover what it’s all been about now !

    Without a second referendum we may still be forced into the single market (aka Remain) but at least the mandate for it has been destroyed.

    The voicepeace of the elite is the BBC.

    The first strike can be against the licence fee in a country with a very elastic view of democracy when it suits, all laws lose legitimacy under such abuse. They can’t possibly cope with taking 17 million refusenics to court.

    We are fast getting to the point where open defiance is justified.

  27. Posted November 5, 2016 at 2:51 pm | Permalink

    If you want the single market then either:
    1) Fully commit yourselves and JOIN IT by embracing the Euro; acknowledge and accept the TOTAL jurisdiction of the European Court; implement the diktats of un-elected individuals prescribing and enforcing assanign Rules & Regs; keep contributing to an ever increasing wasteful and destructive EU Budget determined, set and managed by Germany; fall in behind the EU Army; be prepared, in time, to surrender our Sovereignty and our national Government to a United States of Europe and in the meantime enjoy Schengen! All of this will buy you a place at the top table where you can Veto just about everything that comes across the table. Many have sold their souls to the EU and are paying for it and will always be locked into a failed concept that imprisons them. It will also continue to allow you to buy from EU more than you sell to them.
    2) Continue in the Single Market half cocked – a Soft Touch -a ”cling-on”- no voice, no Veto (they aint going to listen to you anymore anyway) no power, no influence,tolerated only if you contribute to an ever increasing EU Budget with scant return AND as long as you continue to play the game and buy more from them than you sell (Disadvantaged by the strength of the GBP for all these years? or is the excuse now that the fall in the GBP makes for increase in the cost of materials). Oh yes – and accept the joys of Schengen.
    3) Exit completely and trade with the world and the EU through WTO – unfettered, unshackled and sovereign.

  28. Posted November 5, 2016 at 3:57 pm | Permalink

    John, our dishonest media is spinning that the Pound is rising because of the challenge to Brexit. We really do need to stop the TV tax!!

  29. Posted November 6, 2016 at 6:31 pm | Permalink

    Yes, you genius.
    Guess why it rose? Because the court ruled that parliament has to vote on it.

  • About John Redwood


    John Redwood won a free place at Kent College, Canterbury, and graduated from Magdalen College Oxford. He is a Distinguished fellow of All Souls, Oxford. A businessman by background, he has set up an investment management business, was both executive and non executive chairman of a quoted industrial PLC, and chaired a manufacturing company with factories in Birmingham, Chicago, India and China. He is the MP for Wokingham, first elected in 1987.

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