The economy one year on from the referendum

The Remain campaign told us it would be bad short term news for the economy if we voted to leave.

They told us  interest rates would go up.  One year on the base rate is down from 0.5% to 0.25% ,and the government 10 year borrowing rate is down from 1.4% to 1.02%.

They told us the economy would dive and there would be a winter recession. Instead the economy has grown by 2% over the last year, more than the Eurozone.

They told us the stock market would fall. Instead the FTSE 100 Index of leading shares is up by a massive 25%

After the vote with the FTSE 100 rising, they said they meant the FTSE 250, the Index of domestic companies, would fall. That is up by 20%

They said housebuilding would be hit and there would be a housing collapse. Starts of new homes are up 15%.

They said the car industry would be damaged. It has instead achieved record output and record exports for this century.

I said none of the above would happen, and forecast continuing growth. I was told I must be wrong because the IMF, the World Bank, the President of the USA, the UK Treasury and the leading US Investment banks all knew voting leave would do short term economic damage.

They got one thing right. The pound did go down more – it was falling well before the vote. I always ducked that question, as I thought it might go down.

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72 Comments

  1. fedupsoutherner
    Posted June 23, 2017 at 1:13 pm | Permalink

    You are right about the pound John and the trouble is this is what many are pointing to when they do their weekly shop and find goods going up at a tremendous rate. This is what is worrying people and when they find their investments reducing. Our friend has sent all his money to NZ to invest where his son lives.

    Reply Shop prices are the same today as a year ago

    • alan jutson
      Posted June 23, 2017 at 2:22 pm | Permalink

      fedupsoutherner

      Perhaps Mrs may should have made all of these very major points in her manifesto together with the number of jobs created, and put it all on posters and leaflets, instead of the stupid ideas she tended to want debated like:

      Foxhunting.
      Social care theft
      Heating allowance means tested
      Triple lock scrapped.
      Immigration figures farce

      She may then have got a majority which was workable.

      • Paul Cohen
        Posted June 24, 2017 at 7:31 am | Permalink

        Absolutely – Wonder how many lost seats that cost?

        Unbelievably crass.

    • fedupsoutherner
      Posted June 23, 2017 at 3:54 pm | Permalink

      Reply to reply. I personally tend to agree but try telling that to some people. Our friends who were against Brexit are adamant that things are more expensive. It is no good us trying to tell them otherwise.

      • Russ
        Posted June 25, 2017 at 10:28 am | Permalink

        I personally tend to agree but try telling that to some people. Our friends who were against Brexit are adamant that things are more expensive.

        >
        Small business are complaining to me but it will be worth it when EU red tape laws are done away with.

    • Hope
      Posted June 23, 2017 at 4:24 pm | Permalink

      Happy Independence Day JR. Sad to read some Tory MPs in talks with Cable! You are entirely correct the two posh shysters tried to scare, lie and used public resources to subdue us to vote their way. Today similar people doing the same and using papers and contacts to do the same. Rid these disloyal politicos from your party.

      Today we read Merkel pulling the strings of Tusk and Junker to say the very generous offer by May for EU migrants is not good enough. End talks and walk away. This is a strategy to divide us and help remainers over turn our vote. This is what they will do with every issue to try to wear us down and erode our will to stay in. Walk away. Do not spend too much ch time on a wasted cause. Put forward a low level civil servant to go through the motions of politeness.

    • ian wragg
      Posted June 23, 2017 at 4:35 pm | Permalink

      I’ve just booked 10 days in the Canaries exactly the same as last year (2016) it is £550 more.

      • Tintin
        Posted June 23, 2017 at 6:02 pm | Permalink

        Don’t go.

      • Dennis Zoff
        Posted June 23, 2017 at 7:06 pm | Permalink

        So did I (June)…..£560 reduction off the original price (special offer)…though we did book very close to when we should leave! Not possible for all clearly.

        Although we have seen prices go up and down like a fiddler’s elbow within one month, in general, we have seen significant price variations in the vacation market over a three months period too, and in many cases lower prices than 2016. Our main vacation in the USA will, I am sure, be higher due to Pound/Dollar currency pressure, but this was also the same in 2015.

        As UK people pull in their belts, Mediterranean vacation locations have lowered their prices to encourage British tourists back, in particular, Thompson Holidays (part of the TUI group). Package Holiday analysis software (as in the aviation industry) calculates prices based on interest and occupancy take-up rates!

        I see the downward price trend increasing. Holiday package companies and hoteliers need to fill their seats and rooms….simply market forces at work!

        Wait as long as you can and expect some very tasty special offers in the near future? As I mentioned earlier, £560 dropped off a holiday package within one week!

      • alan jutson
        Posted June 23, 2017 at 7:48 pm | Permalink

        Reason for the price rise is simply increased demand, as many countries where people used to go on holiday are not regarded as safe enough now, so people choose the so called safer options..

        No terrorist acts on the Canaries yet, although some Islands have an illegal immigrant problem from Africa, mainly for the simple reason that Spanish take all of the so called refugees into mainland Spain, thus encouraging people to continue.

      • Gary C
        Posted June 23, 2017 at 8:41 pm | Permalink

        Somehow I think your holiday compared with being owned, run, dictated to by the EU is not worthy of a second thought . . . . .

      • hefner
        Posted June 23, 2017 at 10:31 pm | Permalink

        I have had the same experience looking at various brochures from different UK-based travel companies: all prices are up by an average of 20% compared to Spring 2016. It is not really the effect of inflation, very likely that of the fall in the value of sterling.

        As for the 15% increase in new homes (anybody, a politico in particular, can always produce a set of statistics without referencing the sources), let me put more trust in Tim Harford’s comment in the FT tomorrow about the need for 1 million homes before 2020, as quoting a 15% increase from a base known to be roughly 50% too low is a joke or taking readers for stupid.

        • libertarian
          Posted June 24, 2017 at 2:49 pm | Permalink

          Hmmm

          Or maybe its the costs of running a business that have gone up?
          You know workplace pensions, new min wage, rising duty on insurance premiums huge hike in business rates that kind of thing. Maybe an economist could explain? Oh that would involve practical reality, silly me.

          An economics journalist…. Right Move is your friend, oh and Zoopla, Prime Location etc

          The housing market is far more nuanced than just building houses everywhere

          The reality based community tend to have a better handle than leader writers I find

    • Richard Hobbs
      Posted June 23, 2017 at 5:41 pm | Permalink

      The recent drop in the value of the Pound has been yet another blow to the income of those of us who live abroad and are reliant on our pension income from the UK to survive. And frozen pensions are still frozen too!!

      • Anonymous
        Posted June 23, 2017 at 8:13 pm | Permalink

        I always saw emigrating in retirement as a huge risk.

        I recently had an ‘expat’ (as he calls himself) complain that Brexit was a ‘really terrible decision’ because he could eat out every night before it happened.

        Sorry mate. You left. You don’t tell us how to vote.

        Yes. It’s possible a lot of ‘expats’ will come home penniless. They will have to get to the back of the queue behind new arrivals or mump off their kids.

        • A.Sedgwick
          Posted June 24, 2017 at 7:23 am | Permalink

          Agreed, retiring abroad unless you are very financially secure is for mugs.

    • M Davis
      Posted June 23, 2017 at 8:32 pm | Permalink

      ‘Reply – Shop prices are the same today as a year ago’.

      Not at my local Co-op, £5 for a pack of cheese!

    • Narrow Shoulders
      Posted June 24, 2017 at 6:13 pm | Permalink

      Reply to reply

      Mr Redwood that is incorrect, the prices that are the same as a year ago are in smaller packets or for older technology.

      Inflation is not rampant but it is noticeable, perhaps if the government controlled the population size and the supply of money inflation would become less of an issue than it is going to become.

  2. Brigham
    Posted June 23, 2017 at 1:14 pm | Permalink

    It’s a pity that all these facts were not shown on the front pages of newspapers. The biased BBC would not allow any of them to be heard, so no chance there.

  3. Lifelogic
    Posted June 23, 2017 at 1:40 pm | Permalink

    Indeed and this despite the fact that Carney/Osborne and so many remainers are talking the UK down, the threat of Corbyn and Venezuela is now very real indeed and T May is pushing socialism and idiotic things like HS2, Hinkley (see report today), wind farms, bio fuels, gender pay reporting and other lunacies for the letting industry. This rather than some uplifting vision of lower taxes, less red tape and thus far fewer parasites.

    They pound will rise they they stop devaluing the currency on purpose and increase interest rates a little and have some uplifting vision for a change.

    • Leslie Singleton
      Posted June 23, 2017 at 2:38 pm | Permalink

      Dear Lifelogic–Keep calm as regards Corbyn. First, I think there are a lot of people who have had a fright about what their flirting with him nearly achieved, Secondly, I think it is unarguable that the Conservative election handling was egregiously awful so if he couldn’t win against that maybe he never can. Thirdly, the Conservatives will have been given a severe shock and will surely mount a better campaign next time (Simple really: study what they just did across the board and in each case do the opposite). And finally of course throw out both May and Hammond– was and remains absurd and close to insane to have Remainers as 1 and 2. Any doubt about that dispelled by Hammond’s antics.

      • Lifelogic
        Posted June 23, 2017 at 8:47 pm | Permalink

        I broadly agree but it is worrying how many of the young can, so easily, be taken in by such a magic money tree, rubber cheque proffering, complete con merchant.

      • A.Sedgwick
        Posted June 24, 2017 at 7:43 am | Permalink

        Hard line Conservative Remoaners and democracy deniers still hell bent on wrecking the Party should have stood down at the election. Our host said in the Commons if Remain had won he would have not stood again as an MP. That is the right and honourable thing to do. Regardless MPs over 75 should be forcibly retired anyway, especially as the election was influenced by the younger vote.

      • Pete Davies
        Posted June 24, 2017 at 12:22 pm | Permalink

        I hope to God your right.

        If labour got in we’d probably be better off staying in the eussr

        I work in London at the moment and was astounded at the amount of clever wealthy people I know who were drawn to corbyn

        “forget your history and you have no future”

        • zorro
          Posted June 24, 2017 at 3:47 pm | Permalink

          I wonder if that could be the ultimate plan/threat 😏. As I have said, they will DO ANYTHING by hook or by crook to keep us in. Relentlessly, the elite keep up the media/pc pressure at all times to remove the Brexit option. From the Independent, I see that there are now calls to offer amnesty to any illegals who might have been residing in Grenfell towers or subletting. How could they prove anything officially anyway?? This is becoming ridiculous. Doubtless, we will see that Grenfell Towers had 10,000 residents 😏……

          zorro

        • Narrow Shoulders
          Posted June 24, 2017 at 6:16 pm | Permalink

          Clever, wealthy, guilty feeling people I think.

          There are better ways to give back, time being a very valuable contributions to causes. These peple do not need to vote a socialist in to ruin the rest of our lives.

    • fedupsoutherner
      Posted June 23, 2017 at 3:53 pm | Permalink

      Too true LL.

    • Hope
      Posted June 23, 2017 at 4:26 pm | Permalink

      OBR confirms today Hinckley not good value for money, negotiated by the useless Davey. You think. HS2and Climate Change Act also uselessly expensive. Time for change in direction. No more EU create our own energy policy, make I dirty more competitive.

    • graham1946
      Posted June 23, 2017 at 7:07 pm | Permalink

      They dare not raise interest rates even marginally as too many people are too much in debt already and the economy is being kept afloat by consumption and credit cards.

      Increasing interest rates will bankrupt millions and would lead to another 2007/8 as lots of debt is on rubbish like new cars bought on personal contract hire which have no real value, especially if they have to be sold in a fire sale. Last time it was unaffordable property and look what happened there. The banks should be told forthwith that they will not be baled out again and will have to go bust this time.

      • Gary C
        Posted June 23, 2017 at 8:50 pm | Permalink

        I fear you are right, borrowing money has been made far too easy for a long time now and the media backlash that would ensue with increased interest rates would be enough to bring down an already weak government.

        • Narrow Shoulders
          Posted June 24, 2017 at 6:20 pm | Permalink

          Correct, I have access to £50K on credit cards, I have as much chance of paying that back as the government has of repaying £1.7 trillion. Although like the government I could keep renewing the loans on balance transfers at crushingly low interest rates. I could borrow £50K for two years at 2.9%, there are business that would give their right arm for rates like that.

  4. Wizard of Osborne
    Posted June 23, 2017 at 1:45 pm | Permalink

    “The Remain campaign told us it would be bad short term news for the economy if we voted to leave.”
    No, they said it would be a total catastrophe…and emergency budget necessary. They said we would be immediately plunged into a “worse than 1930s “depression. One senior MP lost his Cabinet job straightaway, then felt he had to get out of Parliament altogther and took to selling newspapers outside Cockfosters Tube station and grind scissors sharp as a sideline accompanied by his pet monkey.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted June 23, 2017 at 7:22 pm | Permalink

      Who is the pet monkey, Cameron or Clegg?

  5. Denis Cooper
    Posted June 23, 2017 at 3:06 pm | Permalink

    “Instead the economy has grown by 2% over the last year, more than the Eurozone.”

    And more than the gross total benefit of the EU single market to our economy.

    Unfortunately it is not widely understood that the economic value of the EU single market is marginal, not even equivalent to one year’s natural growth of the UK economy at its trend growth rate, and because most of the population uncritically accept the vast exaggerations of the supporters of EU membership we are gradually losing the propaganda war.

  6. MikeP
    Posted June 23, 2017 at 3:25 pm | Permalink

    I refer you to the glass-half-empty version from the BBC’s Reality Check team
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40382479

  7. Tintin
    Posted June 23, 2017 at 3:36 pm | Permalink

    It’s hard negotiating with the EU when the TUC, Labour Party, LibDems and SNP are cheerleading for the negotiating stance of the EU and trashing our Country’s negotiating stance. Why don’t they go live in Greece? They can retire at 12 and half years old there on full adult salary.

    • Dennis Zoff
      Posted June 23, 2017 at 7:23 pm | Permalink

      The collective negative EU, TUC, Labour Party, LibDems and SNP (using insidious narratives) naysayers would rather see the UK population dragged through the mud whimpering, to exact revenge and prove a political point!

      It beggars belief that these UK tax paid politicians can be so bereft of social decency in pursuit of their self-serving political agendas?

      “Most career Politicans never work for the good of the people….their paid job!” Of course, there are exceptions, John!

      • A.Sedgwick
        Posted June 24, 2017 at 7:46 am | Permalink

        The EU is the best gravy train.

  8. Gareth Jones
    Posted June 23, 2017 at 3:56 pm | Permalink

    So you’ve admitted you ducked the awkward question. That doesn’t inspire confidence. What other questions have you ducked?

    • Sgt Schulz
      Posted June 23, 2017 at 6:21 pm | Permalink

      Gareth Jones.
      I don’t know if JR ducked what I consider to be the truth: The EU faces a massive trade war with America. The EU has been cheeky to the point of being adversarial in its tax attacks on major US companies. Also tariffs on goods produced by American fully and partially owned companies in South America, Africa and Asia ..even Russia. American investors , I have noticed, have been making rather strategic and “silly” investments in European stocks. “Silly” investments in some what I would term iffy banks in Italy, Spain, Portugal and even Germany. It makes no sense at all backing losers except if they wish to pull the plug all at once and sink the EU. Sink the Bismarck is what I say! 🙂

  9. Paul Cohen
    Posted June 23, 2017 at 3:58 pm | Permalink

    The BBC – Then and now

    During World War 2 the BBC operated to a Reithian Directive that broadcasts were to Inform, educate and entertain. It undertook to HM Government to report news truthfully and as accurately as possible and generally did so. Broadcasts were picked up in occupied Europe, also by our then enemies who if caught listening in faced severe punishment but nevertheless thought the risk worthwhile.

    Today we don’t get news as such, in that it is presented as shows rather than programmes , presenters rather than trained interviewers to ask the questions who seem to be seeking some celebrity status by their aggressive manner.

    We have all seen the media at work in Downing Street and elsewhere where impertinent questions are flung at their targets in an offensive and coarse manner. ( I saw some newsreel from the 1940’s where a reporter doffed his hat before speaking with his man – don’t see much of that nowadays!)

    Watching the Marr/Hammond interview last Sunday, Mr Hammond responded quite clearly to the question and confirmed that the UK would be leaving the EU, the Single Market and the Custom Union. By evening the BBC were reporting a different interpretation on this and suggesting there was a reluctance on his part to certain aspects of his statement. What’s going on?

    The BBC derives its revenue from the Licence payers and Government, does not have to compete apart from customer share and is dismissive of any criticism and claims of bias.
    I think I remember Patten facing the same charges but nothing has changed since then.

    • Anonymous
      Posted June 23, 2017 at 8:05 pm | Permalink

      The BBC can take licence evaders to magistrate court. Commercial TV stations can’t.

      • A.Sedgwick
        Posted June 24, 2017 at 7:57 am | Permalink

        In the near independent (not financially) Scotland debtors cannot be jailed for debts less than £500. I presume this is designed to circumvent the Licence Tax.

        It is time a brave MP proposed a PMB to outlaw jail for non payment of the BBC tax. It is revealing that to watch BBC on my computer I have had to register or they block me, so they are using IT here but not to allow viewers to subscribe or not with TVs. i.e. not pay the licence fee. Wake up MPs, social media has arrived.

  10. Bert Young
    Posted June 23, 2017 at 4:05 pm | Permalink

    The message doesn’t seem to get through to Hammond . He constantly talks our case down and seems keen to undermine other members of the Cabinet ; if his ploy is to attract attention and to be in the running for the leadership of the Conservatives , then he makes a bad mistake .
    Those who know their numbers ( like our host ) and genuinely believe in the future of our country outside of the EU , ought to get together and orchestrate a campaign to oust Hammond .

  11. Caterpillar
    Posted June 23, 2017 at 4:32 pm | Permalink

    And yet with high inflation, financial institutions having had to rebalance portfolios (people’s pension), productivity not improving (no shake out, no need for riskier projects) we have Carney refusing to increase interest rates. Without normalisation we can never be confident that things have normalised. Move this guy on and sort out rates, especially as Hammond is going to further fiscally loosen.

  12. Anonymous
    Posted June 23, 2017 at 4:32 pm | Permalink

    They control the BBC and most of the MSM are on their side. A powerful alliance of money-people, ex politicians, media/celebrity classes – civil service and EU politicos are arrayed against us.

    They also limit who we can have representing us – hence you are here and not there.

    The general election is definitely being read as “May went to the country for a stronger mandate and ended up with a weaker one.”

    You need a one-liner to reassert the referendum result and there isn’t one. A master stroke, giving us May !

    A second referendum will come this way, I assure you and older people are sick of all the voting.

    They are in the mood to let the ‘snowflakes’ have it. Let the Eloi vote for Morlocks.

    PS Conservative candidates in university towns are particularly at risk. Shouldn’t students vote from their homes instead ?

    • A.Sedgwick
      Posted June 24, 2017 at 8:01 am | Permalink

      It is said the voting system is so flawed students can end up with two votes. Then there is postal voting and no ID checks at polling stations.

  13. Helen Taylor
    Posted June 23, 2017 at 4:39 pm | Permalink

    Why are the Brexit supporting MPs not speaking up more about the benefits of leaving. I know the BBC and other media dont want to talk to to anyone but remoaners. I read so much information on the net during the referendum, such as how much per head of capita each country pays and receives. Why cant these positve facts be shouted fron the rooftops.

    • Pakamac Rainment
      Posted June 23, 2017 at 6:08 pm | Permalink

      Helen Taylor
      Just think what the Corbyn street mobs would be like if they couldn’t stay at home and watch the “victory” in the election reeled out for them like gruel to oarsmen on a slave ship. If telling them the lies they want to hear keeps them out of trouble ……”
      You must realise Helen, these people are puddled.

  14. Jon p
    Posted June 23, 2017 at 4:40 pm | Permalink

    Yes sure john.. you know everything.. so would you riddle me this then..will brexot be reversed or what kind of a brexit are we going to get now? Last evening mrs may offered a deal to the eu about the eu migrants, mind you it was a minimalist offer with conditions attached..not a great offer really since it was offred by way of negotiation.. anyway the europeans don’t seem to be too impressed.. not a great start by mrs may and not looking good for the future talks.. so john what do you think now will david davis be able to get to grips with things in a better spirit or are we just careening our way to the exit. Personally i think that talks are futile because despite what the eu bureaucrats and politicians say they are only being polite..delivering A50 has sealed our fate and there is no way back..so we might as well get on with it..only now waiting for liam fox and his new global trade deals announcements.. think we will be waiting!

  15. DaveM
    Posted June 23, 2017 at 5:51 pm | Permalink

    Why is the PM pitching herself headfirst into the Brexit negotiations? Is David Davis not being trusted? The PM hardly has a gleaming record of late in terms of………well, anything really.

  16. Terry
    Posted June 23, 2017 at 6:16 pm | Permalink

    The pound, in July 2008, was at $1.99 and dangerously high for our exporters. Under the Labour Government it FELL to a low of $1.39 in just six months (I have the FX price charts) and rose gradually to $1.72 by July 2014 under a Conservative Government Not that this is so relevant but it proves the point that politics alone cannot control the world markets. Since that date, our Pound has been falling and exports have been rising.
    So, in this last cycle, the pound was falling BEFORE the referendum was even announced as this down trending wave pattern started way back in 2008.
    To suggest the recent fall is because of Brexit is a false statement supported by NO facts. It is a lie.

    Now your overall analysis, John, is difficult to dispute, so I do wonder why the Conservative Government and the Brexit Team in particular, is not spreading these facts across the electorate AND to the General Public. Knowledge IS Power.
    Why is there such a reluctance to put down the opposition? For that is exactly what they are doing to the Tories at every step. Time to fight back with hard facts.

    So, I do think it is time Mrs May dumped the likes of L Crosby and co and contracted The Saatchis or their heirs as did Mrs Thatcher to help her sweep into power.
    They are the real promotional experts not those who live in the Cabinet Office and I am sure it will be money well spent/invested.
    I want my country saved and our National Sovereignty re-established and that will never happen under a Socialist Government. Never has and never will.

  17. Mark B
    Posted June 23, 2017 at 6:20 pm | Permalink

    Good evening.

    You missed, World War 3. I especially liked that one. Guaranteed to put the willies up us – NOT !!!!

    • Terry
      Posted June 24, 2017 at 9:35 am | Permalink

      That announcement by dodgy Dave was too outrageous for words. What was that man thinking? More importantly, why did he wish to surrender this Nation to the EU Dictators? It makes no sense to sacrifice your country unless there are ulterior motives for those with vested interests. Hmm!
      The EU Commission are unelected, they are unaccountable and they cannot be removed from office. That is NOT Democracy and therefore cannot be acceptable to us true Brits.

  18. DanS
    Posted June 23, 2017 at 6:22 pm | Permalink

    Spin and more spin..i don’t know why you bother..the vote had already been taken and wr are leaving..brexit means brexit..out of the whole thing including the customs union..wr want to be completely free and don’t want any kind of trade with them..nothing..no tradr with eu countries so i dont see what the problem id.

  19. Mikew
    Posted June 23, 2017 at 6:28 pm | Permalink

    Send all of the eu migrants home..thats it they are not wanted here by the majority..just as we voted.

    • Anonymous
      Posted June 23, 2017 at 8:00 pm | Permalink

      Not true.

  20. James neill
    Posted June 23, 2017 at 7:01 pm | Permalink

    There will be no cakes for anyone.. only salt and vinegar.. the rest is all waffle and spin

  21. outsider
    Posted June 23, 2017 at 7:12 pm | Permalink

    Dear Mr Redwood,
    My most ardently remain friend (who is both traditionally English and very international) focuses on prices and exchange rates when pressed and in this respect he is right. CPI is up 2.9 per cent, producer prices up 3.6 per cent and manufacturers’ input prices up 11 per cent, although the last two have now topped out.
    Why has sterling fallen so much? Could it be something to with Mr Carney’s Bank of England halving its base rate and keeping it at this emergency level even though UK inflation is currently double that of the eurozone and close to the top of its target range?
    The message to the markets is clear. The Bank is more concerned to bolster the value of financial assets than to sustain people’s living standards.
    Quite how making consumers more anxious about their future can be construed as supporting British business, as Mr Carney constantly claims, is a mystery to me.

    • Chris S
      Posted June 23, 2017 at 7:49 pm | Permalink

      The reason BofE Base Rate is at a record low is because Carney knows that putting up mortgage rates, an inevitable consequences of increasing base rates, would cause an immediate downturn in the economy, something we simply cannot afford in the middle of Brexit negotiations and in our delicate political situation.

      Forget Political Neutrality, whatever Carney thinks of the PM and Chancellor, he cannot possibly want an avowed Marxist as his boss. He will therefore do everything necessary to ensure that the economy is doing well whenever the next election is called.

      • David Price
        Posted June 24, 2017 at 5:06 pm | Permalink

        I would not rely on Carney for that, has a good escape route.

  22. Eternal doom
    Posted June 23, 2017 at 7:56 pm | Permalink

    Corbyn-Camden is like a never-ending ripple. One gets an eerie and quite frightening promonition of future Corbynism.

    I shall not elaborate.

  23. Lawd!
    Posted June 23, 2017 at 9:22 pm | Permalink

    It is a great pity Mrs May cannot take Emergency Executive Power and instruct all tenants of all blocks to stay exactly WHERE THEY ARE
    A Security person on each floor or a warden or a council workman or a volunteer could be placed if necessary. But it isn’t necessary. Or they would already be dead.
    Is Mrs May going to put her foot down and do what is correct now! ??To take responsibility!
    If you can keep your head while…..
    Moving people out can be more dangerous than them staying put, obviously, for a mature mind

  24. Weak!
    Posted June 23, 2017 at 9:35 pm | Permalink

    Remove the leader of Camden Council immediately! We can’t have Local Councils removing people hither and thither as though we are in a Nuclear war. IT IS DANGEROUS!!! Cancel the evacuation!

  25. Mick
    Posted June 23, 2017 at 9:58 pm | Permalink

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/820694/Jeremy-Corbyn-Theresa-May-early-general-election-Labour-Conservatives
    Who’s do these leftys take us for, if there was another GE soon god forbid, I have never been on a campaign to get someone elected but on this occasion I would pull out all the stops and influence and make bloody sure we don’t have a Labour government into power

  26. Just asking
    Posted June 23, 2017 at 11:19 pm | Permalink

    Has David Lammy MP also got friends in Camden Tower Blocks?

  27. Andrew
    Posted June 24, 2017 at 5:34 am | Permalink

    John, you are so out of touch with the working man it is sad to see.

    Inflation now at 2.9 per cent wages increased 1.7 per cent. Most people are worst off in their day to day lives as a direct result of the fall in the pound and the increase in inflation. How do you think voters will see this?

    When we actually EXIT the EU rather than just talk about it, it’s inevitable things will squeeze even more. Business investment? Basically non existant since the vote since there is no clarity and no foreseeable benefit in the short to medium term.

    (The rise in the stock market also largely due to the fall in the pound, please put in dollar terms against S&P and Europe and see how it compares)

    Reply I know exactly what is happening to wages and prices bad am promoting policies to increase net spending power for families. The rise in the Stock market is well above god fall in sterling. Inflation has been dominated by petrol from a higher oil price,nit from average shop prices

    • acorn
      Posted June 24, 2017 at 10:00 am | Permalink

      The rise in stock markets is the result of Quantitative Easing (QE). Gilt holders have cashed in and put the money into shares. Share prices have risen; increasing the balance sheet value of a company; and, supposedly making it cheaper for such companies to borrow. (On top of that comes the foreign currency earnings being converted to weaker Pounds Sterling in the books.)

      That is exactly what QE was meant to do. It has raised share prices but hasn’t increased borrowing for investment. Corporates invest when they can see customers with money, lining up at the check-outs. The last bit is missing. QE has not increased household purchasing power but, it has allowed big corporates to stash the cash.

      The exchange value of a floating fiat currency, is the equivalent of a nation’s share price. If that nation has a large trade imbalance, like the UK, foreign central banks may wish to support the importers currency to keep its own exporters happy.

  28. a-tracy
    Posted June 24, 2017 at 9:42 am | Permalink

    Chairman of the Treasury Select Committee sounds right up your street 🙂

  29. Antisthenes
    Posted June 24, 2017 at 10:10 am | Permalink

    It must not have failed notice that the bulk of the scaremongers and those that got it completely wrong about the consequences of a Brexit vote were government experts directly employed by them or in institutions and agencies that were set up by them. This tells me that my constant scathing attacks on the size and roles of governments are not misplaced as their sheer incompetence , wasteful inefficiencies, bullying authoritarian tactics and corrupt practices are being exhibited for all to see.

    No doubt on completion of Brexit a lot of what they have forecast will come to pass to much triumphalism of those same experts. Most of us will feel duly chastised and repentant. The rest of us will realise that those experts and their army of remain supporters have been, are and will continue to work tirelessly to ensure that Brexit will be a failure. If only to deter others who would dare to challenge the establishment and the status quo and as a punishment for bruising their arrogant pride.

    Their triumph will be short lived if Brexit results in the goal of leaving the EU without any strings attached. No deal will do that but will aid their forecasts in the short term with a deal that is acceptable to Brexiteers it will of course bring little disruption and the road to prosperity can begin from day one. So we know which result the experts will favour the former or one with considerable strings attached. We have no reason to fear the former unless a Corbyn type government becomes a reality as Brexit will give us many freedoms and advantages that our current EU membership denies us.

  30. Terry
    Posted June 24, 2017 at 1:08 pm | Permalink

    Homes and all things lead to Brexit and according to the news Mrs May is having a hard and bullying time from those wretched people who do not believe in freedom.

    I have suggested in the past that we see no problems displayed from the other side, they all appear to be only UK problems over Brexit.

    Well, here is a report from Audit Accountants Deloitte in Germany detailing the problems the EU will have if we leave without a trade deal. I trust Mrs May’s advisers will show it to her as it reinforces OUR case.

    http://openeurope.org.uk/today/blog/deloitte-study-finds-german-car-industry-severely-hit-no-deal-brexit/

  31. lojolondon
    Posted June 25, 2017 at 4:00 pm | Permalink

    John, the main reason that the Pound went down was because Carney cut the interest rate within days of Brexit. That was a clear, deliberate action that produced an entirely predictable, repeatable result. I believe he did it intentionally to manipulate the situation and ‘prove’ (a) That Brexit was bad for us (b) That he was “acting responsibly”. Outrageous.

  • About John Redwood


    John Redwood won a free place at Kent College, Canterbury, He graduated from Magdalen College Oxford, has a DPhil and is a fellow of All Souls College. A businessman by background, he has been a director of NM Rothschild merchant bank and chairman of a quoted industrial PLC.

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