In search of trade deals

In a dramatic coup de theatre the EU decided to announce a possible trade deal with Japan. They did so with the sound of clicking cameras at the Hamburg G2o summit in prospect. They did so to embarrass Mr Trump, who has turned his back on the elaborate and contentious multi country Trans Pacific Trade Partnership. They did so to tell the UK that after years of no progress the EU with its Canada deal and it is possible Japan deal is at last willing to pursue more free trade worldwide.

I would be delighted if the EU did do a proper trade deal with Japan. When we leave the EU both we and EU have to confirm that each of the EU trade deals will still apply to the two splitting parts. There is every likelihood that they will. Only the third country as the co signatory could prevent each trade deal novating, passing, to both the rest of the EU and the UK naturally. Why would they wish to reverse something that is in their interest and which they willingly signed. So if before we leave the EU already has a Japanese deal, all well and good.

If you read some of the smaller print about the Agreement, you see that so far it is fairly narrow, with plenty of remaining issues to sort out. It does not unfortunately look likely that there will be an EU/Japan deal signed and operating by March 2019. They have not, for example worked out how any disputes will be resolved. Japan favours existing arbitration. The EU ants the ECJ involved. Sound familiar? The EU has sort of promised to remove the 10% tariffs on Japanese cars into the EU market, but it wants to spread the reduction over a number of years and reserves the right to go slow or cancel if too many Japanese cars turn up. Japan for her part has promised some opening of her food market for some EU dairy products.

Any progress is welcome, and should be welcome to the UK leaving the EU. The lack of agreement over important issues, and the narrowness of the positives imply this was an announcement put out for dramatic diplomatic effect at this summit.

Meanwhile Mr Trump could not have been clearer. He wants a good trade agreement between the US and UK as soon as possible. That’s left the gloomsters who reject the democratic choice of the Uk saying that we can do nothing to advance this before we have left! Why not? The only thing we cant do is to sign the Agreement we are working on. When will they start working on our side for a change?

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64 Comments

  1. jonP
    Posted July 9, 2017 at 5:28 am | Permalink

    No problem so – we can have a new trade deal with the US as Trump said – if you could believe him? – i notice he hasn’t started building the wall yet either.. it seems president Trump promises everything to everyone – and the very last person he meets is always the most fabulous and most terrific.. sigh..sigh

    • Lifelogic
      Posted July 9, 2017 at 7:10 am | Permalink

      Such is the profession of being a politician you have to say one thing to get elected then hopefully do what is sensible once you have been.

      May did not seem to understand these simple political basics – going about it in reverse with her punishment manifesto and now pushing her daft, green crap version of socialism.

      Rather like trying to sell a car with a brochure telling you about all the pitfalls, depreciation, high chance of crashes and thefts and all the costs, risks, taxes, finance costs, breakdowns and the dangers of owning the car.

    • graham1946
      Posted July 9, 2017 at 9:43 am | Permalink

      Trump has only been in office for 6 months and has most of the political elite against him. Our governments, even with big majorities take years to get anything done and then its usually a cock up and does not do what they intended. At least he has kept his nation out of the crazy climate change religion whilst ours think that if industry is crippled and granny freezes to death in a cold flat it will save the world, whilst China and India go merrily on their way burning coal.

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted July 9, 2017 at 12:07 pm | Permalink

      It was no problem before the referendum, when Cameron was extolling the massive potential benefits of TTIP and giving that as a reason for staying in the EU. Now whatever alternative deal emerged would be worthless and would not compensate for the horrendous damage which will be caused by leaving the EU … and if you recall before the referendum Obama said that if we dared to leave the EU we would be at the end of the queue for a new trade deal, and that was presented as the truth and a very powerful reason why we should vote to stay in the EU, but now that Trump has said that will not be the case what he says is irrelevant.

      Instead now according to Remoaners we will lose out on this fantastic new trade deal between the EU and Japan, when in fact there is as yet no such deal:

      http://facts4eu.org/news_jul_2017.shtml#japan

      and it is very likely that whatever rather marginal overall economic benefits are eventually obtained by such a deal will still be available to the UK after we have left the EU, in one way or another.

      But it should not be left to people like me to point these things out on a blog like this, David Davis should set up a press office to do that.

  2. Nig l
    Posted July 9, 2017 at 5:40 am | Permalink

    Yes. Let’s have the agreement in principle and a date in the two leaders diaries, I suggest the day after our two years notice is up, to sign it. That would put a few people back in their box.

  3. Peter VAN LEEUWEN
    Posted July 9, 2017 at 5:49 am | Permalink

    This blog forgets to mention that it was also in (ex-TPP) Japan’s interest to send such a message to Trump, just like Australia now wants to speed up its negotiations with the EU. For the UK, the upcoming US trade deal may be the most effortless imaginable. “Just sign on the dotted line, Theresa.” Good luck guys! 🙂
    And EU – UK? Of course something will be worked out, it just needs to be given a little time and respect for EU principles.

    • Richard1
      Posted July 9, 2017 at 7:26 am | Permalink

      The way it’s looking now is there will be some sort of interim UK-EU arrangement post Brexit. Meanwhile the UK will agree and implement a host of other agreements around the world, and eventually, as you say, there will be a permanent UK-EU deal. Don’t you think this is a bit odd given there is currently a satisfactory tarriff and friction free UK-EU trade arrangement?! The Netherlands is one of the greatest historic trading nations of the world. Aren’t people saying it would be bizarre of the EU to erect trade barriers with the UK where none existed before, for reasons of political pique?

      • Peter VAN LEEUWEN
        Posted July 9, 2017 at 8:57 pm | Permalink

        @Richard: it may seem odd, but is a result of the divorce wanted by the UK: no common referee (ECJ), no Customs Union, no 4 freedoms. Working out all the details for a much loved and favored “third country”, will cost (based on EU experience) a number of years – compare deal with Canada. We are not erecting anything, if a drawbridge is pulled up, it is from the UK side. It is the UK which divorced from the treaties it had signed up to, we just, against our wish, have to comply with a treaty article (50).
        What is not possible is dictating the EU, the EU is no colony.

    • formula57
      Posted July 9, 2017 at 8:40 am | Permalink

      Concerning Australia, interestingly it now sees its free trade deal with the US of some years standing as having been detrimental to trade.

      As reported lst January by abc.net.au’s Ian Verrender: –

      “According to the ANU’s Crawford School, that pact has hurt Australia every year since it was signed, with $57 billion in lost and diverted trade in 2012 alone.

      Strangely, that little nugget never seems to be mentioned by our leaders whenever they wax lyrical about the benefits of free trade deals.

      Nor do they ever refer to the numerous reports and studies from their very own Productivity Commission that repeatedly call for greater caution in signing “free trade agreements” because they deliver few benefits and may “impose net costs on the community”.

      • Peter VAN LEEUWEN
        Posted July 9, 2017 at 9:03 pm | Permalink

        @formula57: so both sides have to be careful that the result will grow into a win-win arrangement. Maybe these long, gradual periods agreed in the deal-to-be with Japan reflects this need for prudence.

    • graham1946
      Posted July 9, 2017 at 9:48 am | Permalink

      What’s wrong with the EU simply adopting what we already have? No-one will leave, the Germans love the devalued currency which keeps their industry strong, the French (politicians at least) love to be in charge and have a far bigger profile than they’d ever get outside and most of the rest are supplicants who love free money. What’s the problem? Just sign on the dotted line please.

      • Peter VAN LEEUWEN
        Posted July 9, 2017 at 9:09 pm | Permalink

        @graham1946: adopting what we already have is remaining an EU member. The UK wants out! It doesn’t even want to become like Norway or Switzerland (as it still seemed to want during the Brexit campaign).

        • graham1946
          Posted July 10, 2017 at 9:37 am | Permalink

          No PVL, adopting what we have is our laws made by foreigners, freedom of movement (3 million or more here as against the 1 million Brits in Europe, lots on low pay) being screwed over for money which we pay to allow you to sell us more than we sell you. That’s what we want out of and had you simply given us something instead of humiliating Cameron when he asked for practically nothing then Brexit would never have happened. The EU is arrogant and incapable of change and if we sty in we will be beaten down even further. You may want to be run by Germany (but given your history should know better), we don’t. Just wait for the next turn of the ratchet towards full EU takeover of Europe.

    • libertarian
      Posted July 9, 2017 at 11:01 am | Permalink

      Peter V L

      The trouble with EU Trade deals needing a little time is the fact that so far most negotiations have taken decades and got nowhere. This total inability of the EU to effectively negotiate trade deals is a major reason to leave.

      Good luck for the future Peter, most of the worlds important technology originates outside of the EU and you are going to be paying through the nose for it .

      I see the lovely folks of Hamburg were out showing their solidarity with the EU project too….. oh wait a minute , you mean some Germans dont like the EU…. who’d a thought it , well well well , next you’ll be saying that French, Dutch, Italians , Greeks and Irish dont much like it either

      • Peter VAN LEEUWEN
        Posted July 9, 2017 at 9:53 pm | Permalink

        @libertarian: the EU doesn’t presume to be anything like the British empire – the USA is free, so are India and the other G20 countries.

    • anon
      Posted July 9, 2017 at 12:06 pm | Permalink

      As logs as in the meantime ,
      1) we don’t hold our breath and plan for no agreement/no refund back to the UK.
      2) we expand our seabourne capacity to replace EU imports due to the extra costs of the external eu tariiff wall.
      3) we line up deals to re-direct any exports (to the EU) to the rest of world with bilateral treaties which mitigate the negative aspects of prior EU trade agreements, which have no benefit to the UK. Tariffs on food we cant grow here or where we no longer have the cheap labour! heavily subsided by benefits etc.
      4) We charge proper border fees to fund proper administration, movements and & trade.

      • Peter VAN LEEUWEN
        Posted July 9, 2017 at 9:13 pm | Permalink

        @anon: bon chance, mon ami! 🙂

    • Anonymous
      Posted July 9, 2017 at 3:30 pm | Permalink

      PvL – Let’s not be too smug. The EU is doomed. Doomed with debt and doomed with mass migration from Africa. Both Holland and France have deeply unsettling, unpleasant and viable right wing movements. Britain doesn’t.

      We have opted for Brexit after patient use of due democratic process. (Whether we get it though !)

      I’ll tell you this about Britain in the EU.

      Our kids have not just been sent back to the ’70s (when I recall a man on average wage could have mum at home looking after the kids AND parents.)

      They have been sent back to the ’20s – renter serfdom. Crushed by wage compression and tax on education and decent earnings (if they’re lucky enough to get them) – all before Brexit.

      Don’t tell me mass immigration didn’t have anything to do with it.

      A house price correction and a reduction in migration will make people feel richer even if they aren’t.

    • Bob
      Posted July 9, 2017 at 7:28 pm | Permalink

      @PVL

      “principles”?

      what, like you pay us a billion pounds a month to run a huge trade deficit, allow any Tom Dick or Harry with an EU passport free access to your generous welfare system, and kneel before the ECJ?

      How could anyone say no to that?

      • Peter VAN LEEUWEN
        Posted July 9, 2017 at 9:20 pm | Permalink

        @Bob: it is true indeed that Britain’s net contribution to the EU is larger than that of Malta, so much for skewed comparisons. Search for the bet EU contributions PER CAPITA, say over the period 2010-2015, and I see that the UK ranks number nine (the Netherlands ranks number one)
        Just try it for yourself and don’t just believe all you read in the press.

        • a-tracy
          Posted July 11, 2017 at 8:46 am | Permalink

          Is that just the membership fee Peter or also all of the VAT, Duty and other fines and taxes collected from the UK?

        • Narrow Shoulders
          Posted July 11, 2017 at 2:36 pm | Permalink

          Are there nine net contributors Peter? Who are they?

          If not your figures lack the credibility needed to mount a search.

    • Lindsay McDougall
      Posted July 11, 2017 at 2:10 am | Permalink

      The respect needed is for the EU to realise that its principles are not the UK’s principles. There is no popular mandate from the electorates of individual EU Member States for the formation of a German dominated Federal European SuperState. And in the modern world, free trade is a right, not a privilege. Free trade happens unless bloody minded, destructive governments stop it happening.

      The representatives of both the European Commission and the European Parliament are quite clearly negotiating in bad faith. There is only one way of negotiating with such organisations, that is to prevent them with a fait accompli and just walk to the exit door. The key points are:

      (1) Exit by March 29th 2019 at the latest, with full sovereignty rights
      (2) No role whatsoever for the ECJ
      (3) Minimum divorce settlement – covering only clearly due payments
      (4) A beefed up Royal Navy to enforce our restored fishing limits
      (5) Free access to UK markets for EU goods and services at our time of departure.

      If the EU Member States impose tariffs and/or non-tariff barriers on our exports of goods and services, we reserve the right to retaliate. Message to Germany : if you impose tariffs on our motor cars, we can do the same to yours, and we can add Bosch parts and washing machines to that list. It’s your call.

  4. Lifelogic
    Posted July 9, 2017 at 5:52 am | Permalink

    What is very clear is that businesses will trade happily with each other and that governments (and especially the suffocating EU) just get in the way – costing everyone a fortune. What is really needed is not loads of complex inter-government trade deals, but for governments to agree to get out of the way of businesses and leave them alone.

    Meanwhile it is a great shame that T May still believes in the fake green/climate alarmism religion and refuses to follow Trump’s sensible lead is abandoning the Paris agreement. She should also undoing the huge damage done by the climate change act which would retain many jobs in the UK and ensure energy was far cheaper for pensioner and everyone.

    How much more evidence is needed before the UK government finally realises what a con this “carbon pollution” (exaggeration of) religion really is? How many more pensioners suffering in their icy homes or jobs/industries exported (saving zero co2 anyway)?

    Get real woman and grow up. Also there is no gender pay gap if you look at the figures properly either so abandon that costly lunacy too. Why would any sensible business ignore cheaper female talent if it were really available? Do she not understand how competitive markets work?

    • Fairweather
      Posted July 9, 2017 at 3:17 pm | Permalink

      Why don’t you read the Royal Society report on climate change – royalsociety.org ?
      Can’t all be wrong

      • fedupsoutherner
        Posted July 9, 2017 at 9:29 pm | Permalink

        Fairweather

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_scientists_opposing_the_mainstream_scientific_assessment_of_global_warming

        There are plenty of scientists who do not believe that climate change is man made. The theory has not been proven one way or the other. Those supporting man made climate change are in the main paid for their reports whilst many of the scientists that do not agree are unpaid. We are throwing billions at renewables which are not really having any effect other than to put more people into fuel poverty and driving industry to China and India. Whatever is needed by man has to be manufactured somewhere and there is no point shipping out CO2 emissions elsewhere.

  5. Jason wells
    Posted July 9, 2017 at 5:56 am | Permalink

    We should prepare the ground now for when we leave in march 2019 as it looks like we will have no agreement in place with the remaining eu27 by then, very likely we will crash out as there is too much disagreement between the sides. Anyway we will get a good taste of what is forthcoming at the next press conference in brussels following the next meeting between david davis and barnier 17th july, i think, and this will confirm what i strongly suspect that things are not moving along as they should.

    • Anonymous
      Posted July 9, 2017 at 7:41 am | Permalink

      *crash* out.

      Always melodrama with you lot, isn’t it.

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted July 9, 2017 at 11:50 am | Permalink

      Is there too much disagreement? I saw Barnier on the TV saying that some people in the UK have unrealistic expectations about being able to “cherry pick”, but if you read her Lancaster House speech Theresa May is not really one of them. There are frequent complaints about a lack of clarity in the government’s intentions but the principles expressed in that speech seem clear enough. For sure there is a lot of detail to sort out and no doubt there will be disagreements over points of detail, but if necessary settling some of those details could be deferred until after we have left the EU. Just because we had left the EU we would not cease to talk to them and make further agreements with them. I would expect continuous conversations on all manner of issues, unless they decided to go into a stupid childish sulk.

  6. Len Grinds
    Posted July 9, 2017 at 6:10 am | Permalink

    You continue, shamefully, to mislead your readers. The third country as the co signatory will certainly not give the UK the same deal it gives to the EU. The EU offers a market of over 600 million people. The UK offers a market of only 60 million. Obviously the EU is in position that is ten times stronger than the UK, and it will be able to get a much bigger and better deal as a result. Please try and live in the real world, not fantasy island

    Reply Name a single country that wishes to dump the EU Treaty and go back to higher tariffs and barriers. The main ones, South Korea and Switzerland are particularly keen to roll over the Treaty to us and to the rest of the EU.

    • fedupsoutherner
      Posted July 9, 2017 at 7:04 am | Permalink

      Grinds on. There are plenty of small countries all trading with one another and with the EU. You ought to try living on the same planet.

    • A.Sedgwick
      Posted July 9, 2017 at 7:24 am | Permalink

      Our host is to be admired publishing your rubbish.

    • Prigger
      Posted July 9, 2017 at 7:26 am | Permalink

      Len Grinds
      I can’t think what Japan would buy from th EU that it cannot get much cheaper thousands of miles closer to home. Surely not agricutural products , or earth moving equipment, technology or minerals.Its car market is saturated and they will not want more VWs anyway, obviously, nor Volvos. Japan imports more Chilean wine than French wine. Hard to see that changing. There may be space for importing French cheese but can the Japanese stomach cope with it…it being so “lively”?

    • Len Grinds
      Posted July 9, 2017 at 8:42 am | Permalink

      False. Not one country with an FTA with the EU has expressed any interest in handing the same benefit to the UK.

    • DaveM
      Posted July 9, 2017 at 10:01 am | Permalink

      Most of those 500 million can’t actually afford to buy anything because the Euro has destroyed their economies, and what little they have left will be used to build new slum cities for the millions of illegal immigrants which have ferried across the Med.

    • libertarian
      Posted July 9, 2017 at 11:05 am | Permalink

      Len Grinds

      “Please live in the real world”

      This from a man thats never started a business, never sold anything to anyone, never negotiated a trade deal and never exported anything

      Len the real world would shake you rigid if you ever encountered it.

      The fact that you think absolute numbers of people has any baring what so ever on a trade deal is totally, utterly and naively laughable. Do try at least to understand the basics

    • lojolondon
      Posted July 9, 2017 at 2:52 pm | Permalink

      Len, you are seriously deluded. the EU has singularly failed to sign any meaningful trade deals in the last 40 years, including with all their major trading partners. The UK is the fifth biggest economy in the world, and one of the most compact and advanced. We represent a fantastic trading opportunity for many products from many countries. Drop the anti-British point of view and enjoy the explosive growth that is coming!

      • Len Grinds
        Posted July 10, 2017 at 5:33 am | Permalink

        O dear, you have a lot of homework to catch up on. The EU has free trade agreements with countries like Canada and South Korea and has just agreed terms on one with Japan, and it also has assorted agreements on customs cooperation with dozens of other countries, including the US. It is not a secret – they are all here – http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/agreements/index_en.htm

        The UK loses the benefit of these deals when it leaves the EU, and no countries are rushing to fill the gap. The UK on its own just isn’t important enough

        Reply The PM confirmed we are going to transfer these to the UK and the rest of the EU on departure

    • Andy
      Posted July 9, 2017 at 3:34 pm | Permalink

      Twaddle. Most FTA are ‘mixed agreements’ and the United Kingdom is a signatory in her own right – see the Canada agreement. When we leave the EU the other contracting party has to agree to the continuation of the agreement with the UK and the EU.

      • Len Grinds
        Posted July 10, 2017 at 5:29 am | Permalink

        Precisely right, Andy. And the other contracting party will not agree. Because the EU offers a market 10 times bigger than the UK, there is no way the UK will be offered such good terms as the EU.
        It is important that people know this

    • Foz
      Posted July 9, 2017 at 6:57 pm | Permalink

      The EU will offer a population of 540 million, down 10% after Brexit, you’ re welcome.

  7. Peter Wood
    Posted July 9, 2017 at 6:11 am | Permalink

    Good Morning,

    Why are we wasting time talking to Mr. Barnier when we know he has no authority, is only there to try to get us to agree a departure fee; he is the ‘warm-up’ act before the real concert begins.
    The sooner we fail the progress test, the sooner we can start on a real negotiation.

  8. Liam
    Posted July 9, 2017 at 6:18 am | Permalink

    So you are telling us a successful Brexit will be delivered by Mr Trump. Of the many mad claims made by the Brexiteers, this may take the prize!

    • Nig l
      Posted July 9, 2017 at 6:25 am | Permalink

      How sad it must be to see everything through such a fog of negativity.

    • Prigger
      Posted July 9, 2017 at 7:33 am | Permalink

      liam
      You are right. We are doomed. We shall join the 50 million now getting their food exclusively from food banks, for free. Of course the money for food banks, as we all know, rains down from heaven every day and cannot be associated with a stonkingly great economy that can give that amount of food away daily and still continue to prosper.

    • Anonymous
      Posted July 9, 2017 at 7:45 am | Permalink

      But Remainers were only too happy to tell us Mr Obama would make Brexit unsuccessful.

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted July 9, 2017 at 11:18 am | Permalink

      “So you are telling us … “.

      No, he isn’t; that is just a stupid lie on your part.

    • Edward2
      Posted July 9, 2017 at 11:43 am | Permalink

      The only mad claim is yours.
      Trump is not involved in deveoping brexit
      It is a deal between the EU and the UK.

    • Terry
      Posted July 9, 2017 at 12:51 pm | Permalink

      You are not reading this article properly.
      This country already benefits more from the current trade with the USA than it does from the EU Free Trade Area. We have a trade SURPLUS of £39 Billions with the USA (ONS 2015) against a massive £60 Billions trade DEFICT with the EU.

      Now can the EU afford to cancel £60 Billions of business with us?
      And why do you want to be governed by Brussels?

  9. alan jutson
    Posted July 9, 2017 at 7:13 am | Permalink

    Good luck to the EU with making trade deals with whoever it wants, if 27 separate County’s can agree to do it (although not yet completed), then I am sure the UK can do likewise if we put our minds to it.

    The key to success is to put our minds to actually do the groundwork and start the process of talking now.

    Not aware as to what work is going on behind the scenes, I hope we at least have a plan and are not still arguing over the actual process.

  10. Richard1
    Posted July 9, 2017 at 7:30 am | Permalink

    Are we able to negotiate the principles of trade agreements pre-Brexit such as they can be signed and fall into place immediately post-Brexit? After all they shouldn’t take long. The US-Australia deal took 14 months and much of the delay was due to a US requirement to protect sugar beet.

    In the case of the US I would urge Liam Fox’s dept to press on with the US given Mr Trump’s helpful support, but also to make sure the issue is bi-partisan in the US so the Democrats support it also. That way it will get done much quicker and smoother.

  11. stred
    Posted July 9, 2017 at 8:01 am | Permalink

    Good luck to the dairy farmers who want to flog more cheese to the Japanese. They think cheese makes us smell and prefer seaweed and fish.

  12. Stephen Almond
    Posted July 9, 2017 at 8:29 am | Permalink

    So the EU can have a trade deal with Japan, without free movement of people and without Japan’s laws being written in Brussels?

    Maybe they could do the same with the UK?

    • rose
      Posted July 9, 2017 at 7:52 pm | Permalink

      And without the Japanese paying billions in tribute.

  13. Shieldsman
    Posted July 9, 2017 at 8:52 am | Permalink

    Every time Michel Barnier speaks, he repeats his terms of reference from Juncker and the Council, his hands are tied. There cannot be any agreement on his outrageous demands. Are they set in the hope that we will throw the towel in and ask to cancel Article 50.
    The remainers might love that, but the statis quo will not be on offer and they would not like that.

    Brexit is just another problem the EU does not have an answer to. The outer wall is contracting and the inner walls are going up.

    The outer wall will have a small section between the North and South of Ireland, the Border will become an EU boundary. Barnier realises it as problem, but does not have an answer. How does he appease Eire and keep the currently open border OPEN? The UK wants to keep the border situation as it is – the ball is in Barniers court.

    Then we come to his statement – “A trading relationship with a country that does not belong to the European Union obviously involves friction.”
    He chose to cite the case of the Airbus wings facility at Broughton. Saying moving the wings to Toulouse for assembly will have problems when we leave the EU, without saying why. No wings and the Airbus will not fly. Airbus Industrie would not thank Barnier and the Brussels Commission for bringing the assembly lines to a halt. In fact no Rolls Royce engines and many Airbus models will not fly.

    Toulouse is an assembly plant for parts from all over the World, it is an example of globalisation. Manufacturers from, to quote EU nomenclature – 3rd Countries supply parts under WTO rules. Does he know if there will be different tariffes on engines say, shipped from the UK and the USA.

  14. Epikouros
    Posted July 9, 2017 at 9:13 am | Permalink

    If only we could dispel a number of myths then perhaps trade and cooperation would be as easy as saying if you produce it and UK consumers like the quality and price then they will buy it. The myths being that current account deficits are abhorrent they are not they have no economic significance and trade deals are about opening up trade when they equally are as much about protecting producers at the expense of consumers. The EU single market is one huge protectionist scam. Germany being the largest beneficiaries of it and France would probably have very few businesses left without it.

    Britain flourished and prospered when it engaged in free trade with the rest of the world after the repeal of the corn laws. World wars, socialism and changing attitudes did much to curtail that culminating in the disastrous decision to join the European vanity project. Which brought all the disadvantages of not being able to trade freely with the rest of the world and the burdens of Brussels imposed protectionist regulations that comes with being a member of that particular so called single market. Added to which we are forced to pay for this loss of being unable to act independently with a large annual tribute to EU apparatchiks and the loss of our fishing grounds. Brexit gives us the opportunity to engage in free trade again wherever and whenever we want and no doubt we will do considerably better because we will no longer have to dance to the EU’s tune.

  15. Newmania
    Posted July 9, 2017 at 9:44 am | Permalink

    we and EU have to confirm that each of the EU trade deals will still apply to the two splitting parts. ……

    Yes , good plan and we might America if we can have theirs as well. I hope somone is keeping a list of all these absurd dreams

  16. Denis Cooper
    Posted July 9, 2017 at 11:16 am | Permalink

    “Only the third country as the co signatory could prevent each trade deal novating, passing, to both the rest of the EU and the UK naturally.”

    As I understand the Japanese government is assuming that this deal will include the UK, and it sounds as though they will want to ensure that their trade with the UK outside the EU will be on the same terms as with the UK inside the EU, insofar as that is practicable. Whether the EU would want that is another matter.

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted July 9, 2017 at 4:15 pm | Permalink

      And according to the Japanese ambassador:

      “Once UK is out, we will welcome bilateral deals with them”

  17. Chris
    Posted July 9, 2017 at 12:26 pm | Permalink

    We have a lot to learn from Donald Trump about getting deals in place, and yes, leaving the EU. He is there to support us, I believe, and although Theresa May and government officials have made extraordinarily uncomplimentary remarks about him in the past I believe he could now be her/the UK’s salvation.

  18. Terry
    Posted July 9, 2017 at 12:29 pm | Permalink

    The whole of the EU is infested with old Socialist dogma. It is soo.. 1950’s Probably because that is when it started and has never moved on. Meanwhile the world has moved on .
    In particular, the WTO, which has now encapsulated almost every Nation on Earth.
    They have certainly moved on to lay down a set of new rules and tariffs that every member has agreed upon. The EU is a signatory of that agreement. Ironically although a member Britain cannot have a real “say” because we are ruled by the EU! Little Iceland can however.

    Anyone with a brain and capable of logical thought would see a free-trade zone is no longer as essential as it used to be and be more ready to improvise and to compromise. And do it more speedily. Not so the EU. There will be 27 EU Commissioners to consult along with the numerous other parties within the whole Euro zone. No wonder PROTUS wants only a Bilateral agreement! No wonder the Japanese have not signed anything nor do they expect to do so, anytime soon.

    The EU is an economic basket case because it is made up of old fashioned socialist baskets and I doubt many remaining members will be any better off in five years regardless of any potential trade deals.
    So, it is certainly a good time for the UK to say goodbye and embrace the much larger and more dynamic Rest of the World and its 6 Billion potential customers.
    I look forward to that day.

  19. Denis Cooper
    Posted July 9, 2017 at 3:11 pm | Permalink

    Off-topic, I’m puzzling over the statements from Dieter Kempf, president of the BDI, the federation of German industries, and Ingo Kramer, president of the confederation of German employers’ associations (BDA), as reported here:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/08/german-industry-warns-uk-over-brexit

    “German industry warns UK not to expect help in Brexit negotiations”

    And here:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-germany-business-warns-theresa-may-protect-single-market-trade-deal-uk-a7831401.html

    “Brexit: German business warns May its priority is to protect single market, not a good trade deal with UK”

    Firstly, of course there is the point that these patriotic German chaps in Germany will fall into line with what the German government wants, unlike the unpatriotic CBI here which is now deliberately trying to obstruct the UK government in its efforts to comply with the will of the people as expressed in the EU referendum. Little new there, in fact, as the CBI’s predecessor the FBI behaved in a similar way.

    Secondly, however, just like their political leaders their main sticking point seems to be a quasi-religious belief in the inseparability of the “four freedoms” of the EU single market, which has rather dropped out of recent public debate in this country.

    “Defending the single market, a key European project, must be the priority for the European Union. Europe must maintain the integrity of the single market and its four freedoms: goods, capital, services, and labour.”

    “The single market is one of the major assets of the EU. Access to the single market requires the acceptance of all four single market freedoms.”

    Of course it cannot be true that any “access” at all to the single market is dependent upon the acceptance of all four single market freedoms, as there are numerous countries around the world which export into the EU single market without having to accept that in return every EU citizen will have the automatic right to migrate into their territories. In fact even the planned EU – Japan trade deal does not require that.

  20. Norman
    Posted July 9, 2017 at 4:18 pm | Permalink

    Please do not underestimate Doanald Trump. Like Henry VIII, he is only a fallible human being; but he presides over a great nation at a pivotal point in history. He has many good people behind him. Those who deride him (as many in the HoC and the Mayor of London do), merely belittle themselves, and do not speak for many of us here in the UK! On a parallel theme, how interesting the nerves about having a statue of Maggie. Are we to be bullied by leftist sentiment at every turn? If so, shame on us!

    • Cry beloved country
      Posted July 9, 2017 at 11:03 pm | Permalink

      Norman .
      If Nelson Mandela can have a statue, anyone should.
      The news from South Africa is not good. Continues to be avoided and not spoken about by leftie-liberals so previously vociferous. It does not compute to their world-view. Actually it never did, but they could sift out the bad bits before. Now they are all bad.

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    John Redwood won a free place at Kent College, Canterbury, He graduated from Magdalen College Oxford, has a DPhil and is a fellow of All Souls College. A businessman by background, he has been a director of NM Rothschild merchant bank and chairman of a quoted industrial PLC.

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