UK Retail sales rise

The volume of retail sales was up 0.9% in June. We now know that in the first year post the Brexit vote retail sales increased by 2.9% in volume, confounding pessimistic forecasts. The value of these sales rose by 5.7%, with petrol prices the most buoyant affecting the figures.

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22 Comments

  1. Lifelogic
    Posted July 20, 2017 at 9:39 am | Permalink

    This despite the tax, borrow and piss down the drain agenda of the current government and their total failure to cut red tape, cut the size of the state, tax levels or even to set a remotely positive and uplifting vision. A lefty PM still going on about gender and race pay gaps, HS2 and other total insanities. A chancellor who thinks 15% stamp duty, mugging the self employed, short changing pensioner and ratting on the £1M IHT promise is a great plan.

    Also despite the real threat of a magic money tree, rubber cheque proffering, confiscatory Corbyn government.

    Just imagine how good it could be with a sensible agenda.

    • Iain Gill
      Posted July 20, 2017 at 8:27 pm | Permalink

      Throwing money at the public sector is one thing, but delivering such rubbish service for the money is unforgivable. The NHS and schools are simply unacceptable. No matter how much the BBC trys to tell us that they are great we can all see the reality.

  2. Posted July 20, 2017 at 10:16 am | Permalink

    As long as it is not all based on consumer debt it is fantastic news. Lets hope it is tourists going wild.

    Something to really celebrate John.

    However, I fear the worst if you analyse our sectoral balances charts at the BOE. The charts show the non governmental sector is in deficit for the first time since 2005. This is what happens if you keep reducing the government budget deficit.

    Government budget deficit = non government sector surplus ( sterling savings) to the penny.

    If Hammond keeps reducing the budget deficit then he keeps on reducing the non government sector surplus ( sterling savings) and keeps pushing more people into debt.

    This is neither political or ideological but central bank accounting fact.

    All you have to do is look at what happens to the household savings graphs everytime the budget deficit is reduced or increased.

    We’ve tried building GDP growth on private debt it does not work. It fails each and every time.

  3. Nig l
    Posted July 20, 2017 at 10:27 am | Permalink

    We now seem to have a doom laden report from Britain in a Changing Europe that acknowledges it is not based on any facts. What is it about the EU that makes normally sensible (maybe) people so irrational. If this was a business case for a private sector project or any kind of funding it would be laughed at.

  4. Tourist
    Posted July 20, 2017 at 11:37 am | Permalink

    True or not, the media said for decades going back to the 1960s that the UK population declines by two million in the summer months due to more outward holidaying than importing of foreign holiday makers.
    Certainly working migrants here would surely take the opportunity of returning to their parents abroad in the summer period.
    So, whatever,-the volume of retail sales up 0.9% in June is a triumph and any EU increased volume not necessarily good news for the EU at all.

  5. Richard1
    Posted July 20, 2017 at 11:38 am | Permalink

    I think you should do a post on whether or not there will be a “cliff edge” if we leave the EU with no deal. This terror is held up as a reason why we must either accept whatever deal the EU offers and / or have a very long transition period. It will be difficult govt to get the EU to agree a sensible deal whilst the EU thinks it can intimidate the UK population with being chucked over the “cliff edge”.

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted July 21, 2017 at 11:20 am | Permalink

      But if we did go over a cliff edge we would take them with us!

  6. Let's just leave
    Posted July 20, 2017 at 11:55 am | Permalink

    Davis and Barnier today’s press conference would indicate, if I were a betting man, that we will leave the EU without any deal.
    The EU cannot have jurisdiction on people on our islands whether they are EU citizens or not, nor any foreign power for that matter nor can non-British citizens be allowed to vote in our local elections post-Brexit.
    We should all send a penny-whistle to Mr Barnier on “paying our bills” and send him an invoice for the cost of product and postage. Then negotiate our leaving the EU no later that just before the October budget 2017 ( two thousand and seventeen )
    It shouldn’t take more than a day to agree on the well-being of EU and UK citizens on one another’s soil if Mr Barnier has goodwill. Less than one day if he does at least an eight hour shift.

    • Leslie Singleton
      Posted July 20, 2017 at 8:49 pm | Permalink

      Dear Let’s–Best I can understand, not that I do, what Barnier is saying is that because there is an EU Budget till 2020 we have to pay for that just as if we were to stay members through to that date. This sounds deluded to me and, that apart, I don’t understand why there is any negotiation at all on this subject given the existence of the Treaties, which the Commission loves so much when it suits them. Surely if any leaving country were liable for a future Budget in this way that would have been such a stand-out of a thing to say that it would have been included in the Treaties, that’s if we would have agreed it, except that we wouldn’t have and didn’t. What is Barnier talking about–and that French chap apparently saying “we want our money”? I am all in favour of “clarifying” this for them!

      • Leslie Singleton
        Posted July 21, 2017 at 5:27 pm | Permalink

        Dear John–What was it this time?–Too long, too dumb, too correct or what?–Cannot imagine you have labeled it extreme

    • Caterpillar
      Posted July 21, 2017 at 6:25 am | Permalink

      I agree. The negotiations need to be wound up earlier so that alternatives can be put in place.

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted July 21, 2017 at 11:17 am | Permalink

      I agree that in the future the ECJ cannot continue to have any jurisdiction in the UK any more than EU law can continue to automatically apply within the UK. On the other hand judges in the UK courts do sometimes refer to cases in foreign, often Commonwealth, courts as part of their deliberations, and of course that happens and will continue to happen for the time being with the ECHR. So I could envisage a situation where judges in the UK were permitted to take into account any relevant interpretations of EU law made by the EU’s supreme court, the ECJ, without being in any way bound or expected to follow their precedents. It would need to be very carefully worded in an Act of Parliament to make sure that UK judges did not stray too far in relying on relevant ECJ judgments, and to make it easy for Parliament – not ministers – to correct any errors if they did.

      • rose
        Posted July 21, 2017 at 8:09 pm | Permalink

        Have you noticed the cowardly appointment at the Supreme Court today?

        • Denis Cooper
          Posted July 22, 2017 at 11:16 am | Permalink

          Yep. Somebody who in the past has expressed doubts about whether our national Parliament is, or should be, sovereign. Great.

  7. Mark B
    Posted July 20, 2017 at 12:15 pm | Permalink

    Given the current levels of population growth I am surprised it is not even higher. But if you are on low wages, what can you expect. 😉

  8. Denis Cooper
    Posted July 20, 2017 at 4:42 pm | Permalink

    This cannot be, JR, you must be mistaken in some way, because Blair explained:

    https://corporate.sky.com/media-centre/media-packs/2017/sophy-ridge-on-sunday-interview-with-tony-blair,-former-prime-minister,-160717

    “I think it’s possible now that Brexit doesn’t happen, I think it’s absolutely necessary that it doesn’t happen because I think every day is bringing us fresh evidence that it’s doing us damage economically … ”

    That “every day” will of course include today, and the fresh evidence he will see for today must be that “it’s doing us damage economically”; not “could” or might” or “will” but the present tense, “is”, even now.

    Lucky this is not the Soviet Union, because they had a short way with people like him.

  9. Iain Gill
    Posted July 20, 2017 at 5:01 pm | Permalink

    yea interest rates far too low, and a lot of sub prime car loans being made

    • Gary C
      Posted July 20, 2017 at 9:24 pm | Permalink

      yea interest rates far too low

      While I agree it does depend on where you are on the financial map.

      If you have been prudent and put money aside to look after yourself and family then you are being punished and have been for years.

      However if you are borrowing up to the limit and beyond then for the last few years you have been gifted with easy money and will whinge loudly about rising interest rates as it will subdue your standard of living.

      This borrow as much as you can and pay back forever era will come back to bite us hard and many will suffer. Will we ever learn ? . . . . . Certainly not while the present Governor of the Bank of England is in office.

  10. Bonded slave
    Posted July 20, 2017 at 8:28 pm | Permalink

    Peter Mandelson was on Bloomberg today. Of course he was being interviewed about current Brexit negotiations. He spoke of what he considered the virtual technical impossibility of leaving the EU. He smiled about it in his customary affable manner. Personally I don’t get any gratification in being tied up and thrashed.

  11. Newmania
    Posted July 21, 2017 at 5:20 am | Permalink

    In fact retail sales grew at the slowest rate for four years in June. The index of production was estimated to have decreased by 1.2% in the three months to May 2017 c
    Demand in the economy is slowing ue to the standard of living crisis and yet there is the thrat of interest rate rises .
    Its all very well; you doing your “Look at it through my legs upside down” routine but we can`t live on it

    Reply Retail sales up 2.9% in volume terms, which is fine.

  12. Epikouros
    Posted July 21, 2017 at 8:04 am | Permalink

    Yellen of the US Fed has told us that another financial crisis is unlikely so in plain language that actually tells us it is imminent. All the economic indicators are also barometer like indicating that many asset bubbles are ripe for bursting. That many banks are only being held in place by being given outside financial support by central banks and in the case of Italy illegally by taxpayers money again. GDP and employment figures are inaccurate either by accident or design so give a much rosier appearance of economies than they deserve. Despite or because of Brexit has nothing to do with the situation but it is going to be a very useful scapegoat when the inevitable financial crisis occurs.

  13. Terry
    Posted July 21, 2017 at 11:04 am | Permalink

    John, should not these achievements be put each time to PMQs? They will find their way into Hansard for public record and maybe even onto the pages of our newspapers.

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    John Redwood won a free place at Kent College, Canterbury, He graduated from Magdalen College Oxford, has a DPhil and is a fellow of All Souls College. A businessman by background, he has been a director of NM Rothschild merchant bank and chairman of a quoted industrial PLC.

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