Announcing good results for their financial service business in the UK, Aviva confirmed their wish to develop and invest in the UK. At the same time they said “In line with our “Not everywhere” strategy we have continued to reallocate capital….we completed the sale of Antarius in France and recently announced the disposals of the majority of our Spanish business as well as Friends Provident International…meanwhile we have invested in Viet Nam” and announced a new joint venture in the UK.
When interviewed by the BBC Today programme the interviewer moved rapidly on when told about their positive approach to the UK! No questions about Brexit – they switched to executive pay instead.
August 3, 2017
Keep up John. Good news about the UK economy doesn’t fit in with the EU BBC agenda.
We are doomed according to the remainiacs and a large tranche of MPs.
When is May going to sack the Quisling Hammond.
August 3, 2017
‘We are doomed according to the remainiacs’
– Some Remainers have exaggerated. Same for some Brexiters.
We all need to stop exaggerating. And just focus on the facts and be as objective as possible.
August 3, 2017
Exaggeration has been going on for kazillions of years.
August 3, 2017
‘Exaggeration has been going on for kazillions of years’
– Who cares! I mean this is NOW. You are you and I am I. We are not other people. And exaggeration looks ugly and achieves nothing good in the long-term ..
August 4, 2017
Woooh – ***lack-of-irony-alert***lack-of-irony-alert***lack-of-irony-alert***…
August 3, 2017
This isn’t the same as some kind of business sales pitch that will affect the bonuses of people by a few thousand pounds either way. This is about something that if we get wrong, could have real negative, long-term consequences for millions of people. And we only have to get it wrong by a smallish amount for that to happen.
August 3, 2017
Sack Hammond, and sack Cameron’s pro-EU “trade envoys” as well:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4755392/Sack-four-envoys-hate-Brexit-IDS-tells-Theresa-May.html
“Theresa May was last night urged to sack four British trade envoys who have spoken out against Brexit.
Former Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith said it was ‘absurd’ for those who were ‘viscerally opposed to Brexit’ to represent the UK during trade negotiations.
David Cameron appointed a cross-party network of 20 ‘trade envoys’ in 2012 to represent the UK in emerging markets around the world.
But four of them are battling to keep Britain in the EU, even though this would make it much harder to strike trade deals around the world.”
Crazy.
August 3, 2017
Sack them and terminate their pension rights..
August 3, 2017
No it is not crazy. It is deliberate to keep us in the EU in the hope we will make the right choice and change our minds. Cameron lied over his alleged achievements, he claimed to have reformed the EU! He dropped all the significant parts of his Bloomberg speech before negotiations and the rest during. It was less than thin gruel.
These are deliberate obstacles. Even May cannot be that stupid.
August 3, 2017
Not to Philip Hammond, David Cameron, George Osborne, Mark Carney, Tony Blair, Lord Heseltine, Lance Cable or Ken Clarke. To these people it’s makes perfect sense.
The decision was to leave, and to undermine the UK’s negotiating position is in my opinion, treason. Heads should roll.
August 3, 2017
It is high time that something was done. I am pleased to see that Jacob Rees-Mogg is being vocal on the constant undermining by the Remainers of the Referendum result (with the collusion of some Conservative MPs, who ought to have the Whip withdrawn from them):
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/836465/Brexit-jacob-rees-mogg-remainers-european-economic-area-keir-starmer
Rees-Mogg FURIOUS at Starmer on Brexit: ‘Metropolitan elite are REJECTING the referendum’
LABOUR’S Brexit secretary Keir Starmer will lead a group of soft-Brexit MPs in a bid to force a vote on keeping Britain in the European Economic Area for a “transitional” period after leaving the EU…..
August 3, 2017
In fairness to Jacob, I don’t think he was furious. I think the furiousness was manufactured by the Daily Express being naughty (as usual).
And be wary of people calling others elite. Donald Trump’s the Mooch accused Newsnight’s Emily Maitlis of being elitist. She said what about Trump. The Mooch replied, he isn’t because he eats cheeseburgers and pizzas ..
We’re all elitist. Whether you’re metropolitan, an Old Etonian, a New York real estate mogul, or a reporter on the BBC.
August 3, 2017
“Keep up John. Good news about the UK economy doesnât fit in with the EU BBC agenda.”
The BBC also thinks that women’s football and cricket should be given equal airtime.
I doubt we’ll see many paying Sky to watch either and that’s the acid test.
August 3, 2017
And now those of us who dislike all football/cricket have to endure even longer BBC news reports on the sports. Just to keep up the pretence that both sexes’ (can I even say ‘both’ now ?) sports are equal.
The BBC is demented with leftist bias.
August 3, 2017
Not forgetting Mr Carney as if one could.
August 3, 2017
As an investor with Aviva I am pleased with this announcement . The future prospects here are good .
August 3, 2017
If the feeling about the BBC is valid then, why bother as the restructuring and investments will be proof of the pudding eventually and hopefully .
August 3, 2017
Intolerable, the (B)BC.
Their coverage of politics was many times sophisticatedly biased, then it was more upfront and its bias was much more obvious. But the other day, admittedly a raw issue …of Trump affirming the reintroduction of a ban on transgender military service, the jounalist in what seemed personal to himself, gave a massive tirade against Trump, name-calling him, attributation of every human political and moral foulness to him along all leftie-liberal lines anyone could voice. Certainly no atempt to give a balanced view or what Trump said, the reason for it is and was…and why he was motivated to do it. The BBC somehow felt Trump’s reasoning..his explanation..could not be voiced by them. That is because, irrespective of anything, the BBC is not a proper broadcaster, not a proper news service. Not British at all.
August 3, 2017
It is not just the BBC either. Only 7% of academics apparently voted Conservative in the last election. True May presented a dire, wet. lefty, expensive energy, greencrap agenda with zero uplifting vision and a punishment budget – but did 93% of them really prefer a Corbyn/Sturgeon let trip to Venezuela land economics?
August 3, 2017
Well naturally, can’t have good news about British businesses or economic success getting in the way of their preference for doom and gloom
August 3, 2017
Trying to compensate for yesterday’s untimely post about Deutsche Bank lease, Mr Redwood ?
Reply. No. Reinforcing the news that the financial community values London as a major centre.
August 3, 2017
No one doubt that, Mr Redwood. It is just that London might not be valued as much as it used to be or could have been.
The main issue with Brexit, is not so much jobs and taxes going to Frankfurt or Dublin but desks being curtailed before being moved back to New York.
Take Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan or Citi. Their London operations have traditionally been far less profitable than their US counterparts and require significant capital (which could be required to capitalise banks inside the EU should the EU decide it).
It might simply be tempting to pull the plug on low margin operations, as London gets downgraded from a “must have” to a “nice to have”.
August 3, 2017
Dear Zero–What tosh–You cannot be sure even about your own doom-and-gloom prejudices and mere assertions, else you would not have snuck in that “might” at the end. Of course it might; but then again it might not, as most of us believe. Having worked in American banking most of my life my take is that Hell will, not might, freeze over before American Banks leave London–remember they came well before Europe had been invented. You might be confused by the original meaning of “Euro” as in “Eurodollar”.
August 3, 2017
Tabulazero
Making stuff up as you go along is very poor form. I suggest you stop
As a former senior exec of both Citibank andGoldman Sachs ( and I still speak to both regularly) I can tell you that you are talking out of you backside.
Goldman Sachs Asset Management announced it had entered into an agreement with Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management to acquire its stable value business, with total assets under supervision of $21.6 billion which it moved to the city of London
Stop fabricating stuff and go find out some real facts, the EU is a very minor outpost in international banking .
The headline… Goldman Sachs London banks are the best in the world and the London office is the most profitable
http://news.efinancialcareers.com/uk-en/249861/goldman-sachs-london-bankers-are-its-best-unlike-barclays
Here are a list of the worlds financial centre by ranking
London
New York
Singapore
Hong Kong
Tokyo
San Francisco
Chicago
Sydney
Boston
Toronto
Frankfurt is number 23 !!!
August 3, 2017
Also Frankfurt is pleasant enough but deadly dull. I’ve been there.
August 3, 2017
Dear Anon–Yes, we had a Frankfurt branch, which was a bit of a non event, frankly, as seen from London, as was Frankfurt itself (also frankly–as in, “I spent a fortnight in Frankfurt one evening”–with apologies to Toledo in Ohio)–We occasionally lent EuroDM from London in to Germany, cannot remember exactly why, rather than Frankfurt doing the lending in Domestic DM. Don’t remember this being illegal under German Law or there being any other (non tariff?!) barrier. I believe George V (Could have been VI) said, “I don’t like abroad, I’ve been there”. I’m not trying to be rude, not much anyway, but the idea of Americans in particular rushing to set up in Germany is delusional.
August 3, 2017
Brussels troll. Ignore him/her and hope it goes away.
August 3, 2017
Off Topic, sorry, but I came across this only today for the NHS critics, I hope you can allow it:
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-health-care-spending/
For all those who criticise the NHS, with its many faults, it is still one of the best for value.
August 3, 2017
Mr Redwood,
I’m not that convinced as I don’t think the insurance industry is comfortable with the uncertainty of Brexit overall.
However, a stronger argument for Brexit – i think – would be to focus on why people such as James Dyson supports Brexit. Is there something he sees that many others don’t? Or has he just got it wrong?
August 3, 2017
Different topic but always good to know:
According to the latest survey from Eurobarometer carried out by the EU Commission, support for the single currency among Eurozone citizens rose to 73% (60% for the EU) from 70% estimated in November 2016 (58% for the EU) and a trough of 62% during the 2012 sovereign debt crisis (51% for the EU).
Across countries, the survey showed rising support for the euro in most Eurozone member states, with support remaining the highest in Luxembourg (at 85%), Slovenia (83%) and Ireland (83%). In Italy, support for the single currency rose from 53% to 58%, remaining still the lowest among Eurozone countries. In Germany, it rose from 76% to 82% while in France it was broadly unchanged at 72% (vs. 74%).
In addition, the survey showed 46% of EU citizens feel the situation in the economy is good, up from 41% in Nov 2016. In addition, 40% of respondents in the EU have a positive image of the EU, up from 35% in Nov 2016 and 30% in 2012, with trust in the EU institutions rising to a seven-year high of 42%. Terrorism is now estimated to be the main concern among EU citizens, followed by immigration.
The poll was carried out on 20-30 May.
Reply Yes, I am very pleased for them. If I were German I would welcome the favourable exchange rate the Euro gives exporters, though I would be worried about Germany’s loans to the weaker members of the currency zone.
August 3, 2017
You must have noted as well that Greece has re-entered the market. Isn’t it great news ?
August 3, 2017
Yes that is good news up to a point. The reality is there is c. âŹ1tr of bad loans buried in the balance sheets of European banks which will at some point have to be dealt with. There is a perfectly rational pro-EU argument which says the Uk should be fully engaged in the EU, inc joining the euro, which is the EUs main policy. Perhaps that’s where you are coming from? But it’s not the argument put forward by Remain, who’s argument was all these policies like the euro and the CAP may be awful but we don’t dare leave or the EU will start a trade war with us. Not an inspiring message which is probably why Remain lost.
But if the EU integrates properly and introduces transfer mechanisms from creditor to debtor counties (perhaps through the banking union it seems), that will be good for an independent UK & we should welcome it.
August 3, 2017
It seems the best thing to have happened to the EU is Britain leaving. Everything’s rosey now.
Tosh.
Europe is dying culturally and economically.
August 3, 2017
I welcome success stories yet I fear the success of The City is having a detrimental effect on the rest of our economy. I would say it is draining the life blood out of it. Too many people are being attracted by the money and the kudos.
There must be a big shift into promoting the business of making physical things by home owned companies. It is difficult because we’ve sold so many and they prevent competition starting up. We could start by stopping any more foreign takeovers.
Mr Redwood is opposed to the sale of the NHS. Pity this zeal doesn’t project further. There’s a miner and an oil minnow which could do with some protection. If not all the profits will go overseas as happened too often elsewhere.
August 3, 2017
This article makes no reference to Aviva’s announcement in May that they are moving some operations to Dublin as a consequence of Brexit.
Just like yesterday’s Deutsche Bank article which chose to ignore the reports of 4,000 jobs potentially moving to Frankfurt along with ÂŁ270 billion of balance sheet assets, this article is selective in what it is reporting on. (If you are going to criticise the BBC for bias, you should avoid showing clear bias yourself.)
Reply Deutsche’s decision to take so much space for 25 years is a decision. Transferring some jobs is a maybe.
August 3, 2017
According to publicly reported information, Deutsche Bank currently employs about 9,000 people in the UK, and the new HQ building (to be opened in 2023, and has been reported as a consolidation exercise to reduce the number of sites down from the current 15) to which you refer will hold about 5,000. That leaves 4,000 current employees not moving to the new HQ building, which just happens to match the number of potential jobs which have been reported as possibly moving to Frankfurt…
I’ll leave it for others to comment on the likelihood of that being coincidence.
Reply They may take more than the 496,000 sq feet, and they are committing for 25 years
August 3, 2017
In very round figures 4000 is 0.01% of the total number of jobs in the UK economy, 0.1% of the total number of jobs naturally destroyed in an average year across the UK economy, and 1% of the extra jobs created in the UK economy over the last year, that is to say net of those losses.
I don’t say this to dismiss the adverse effects on those involved, and if there are many job losses concentrated in one town or area those effects can be hard, but simply to point out that the scale of potential job losses needs to be seen in a proper perspective.
Provided that new jobs are created at least as fast as old jobs are lost the overall economic effects will be slight, and hardly noticeable among the statistical noise.
August 3, 2017
We have taken such hits before whilst in the EU and because of the EU.
Many more factories have been outsourced than insourced. The City has been instrumental in selling off big industry abroad.
In asset stripping so much of the provincial UK and turning it into state subsidised rust belt such decisions have come back to haunt the City in the form of the provincially driven Brexit.
The City is largely to blame for this.
August 8, 2017
Denis
Ignore it, City of London job vacancies rose 13% since June 2016.. thats an extra 92,000 jobs in the past year ( Source City Job Index)
August 3, 2017
Peter Parsons
Deutsche Bank ( which is in deep financial trouble) recently sold off its entire asset management division to Goldman Sachs , why you remainers all think theres any reason to move anything to Frankfurt I’ve no idea , Brexit or no Brexit, Frankfurt offers very little to international banking
From the DB website ( i.e. the horses mouth)
Deutsche Bank chooses to base its largest investment banking operations in the City of London, a centre of global flows of trade and wealth. We use this position as a global bank to keep our UK clients connected to markets, and help clients do business all over the world.
Deutsche Bank employs over 8,000 people in the UK, and is one of the largest employers in the City. The backgrounds of our employees mirror London as a dynamic, global city: we have an international workforce of 100 nationalities at Deutsche.
Our clients are the companies and institutions the public comes into contact with every day. We are part of UK life, and our presence here is part of a long-term strategy that goes back 140 years
August 4, 2017
The new CEO surely has to do something the Deutsche bank has been making losses every year. It also has to keep itself competitive with the reliance on China and a world market just waiting in the wings.
August 3, 2017
Lovely to see that one of our foremost constitutional experts now believes that thanks to Theresa May foolishly taking advice from the President of the EU Commission and throwing away her Commons majority in an unnecessary general election we should have a second EU referendum.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/aug/03/second-brexit-referendum-case-getting-stronger-political-deadlock-life-raft
Leaving aside the illogicality of his argument, I could in principle support the idea that the British people should be asked directly whether or not they approved the final agreement between the UK and the rest of the EU, but I wonder in practice how those other countries would react if the UK electorate rejected the proposed new settlement, the product of long and hard and detailed negotiations?
August 3, 2017
The reality is Article 50 has been triggered and unless the other 27 agree otherwise we leave on the 29th March 2019. If a Referendum were held on any deal (meaning Treaty) concluded and that deal rejected the UK would leave the EU with no deal. You cannot force the other 27 to negotiate again. So it is a ridiculous proposition.
August 3, 2017
Yes, it is ridiculous, and potentially it could also be quite damaging for us if the EU negotiators assumed that we would vote for a rubbish deal rather than for what would be in effect be no deal.
August 3, 2017
The bias of the BBC is totally absurd and completely wrong on every issue. On the EU, on climate alarmism, on Grenville, on landlords and tenants, on tax levels, on calling for ever more regulation of everything, on the state monopoly NHS, on “diversity”, on more state “investment” in this or that …… are all their presenters brainwashed in some sinister machine they have in the basement? Perhaps kept next to the cupboard that they keep Cable, Clegg + wife, Heseltine, Ken Clarke, John Major, Soubry, Parris and the rest of their BBC think “expert” lefty commentators in?
August 3, 2017
Dear Lifelogic–It is always a pleasure to read what you write but perhaps not always entirely for reasons you would be pleased about. In your latest effort I doubt you meant to refer to The Last Fight Of The Revenge.
August 3, 2017
No, BBC employees are not brainwashed. They are already of a liberal lefty mindset, because they are all hired from adverts. in The Guardian.
August 3, 2017
Getting fed up of the BBC? I’ve just looked at radio 5’s figures after deciding I couldn’t take any more of the bias and drivel. We now tune in to classic FM.
Interestingly, radio 5’s listening figures have almost halved since the high of 2010…
https://media.info/radio/stations/bbc-radio-5-live/listening-figures
Meanwhile Classic FM’s figures are increasing and have gone in the opposite direction since 2010.
August 3, 2017
You may care to try Radio Swiss Classic which is streamed from its website. Continuous good music; so much so it’s relentless!
August 3, 2017
*BOE CUTS 2017 GDP FORECAST TO 1.7% VS 1.9%, 2018 1.6% VS 1.7%*
*BOE CPI FORECASTS BROADLY UNCHANGED, SEEN AT 2.2% IN 3 YRS*
August 3, 2017
Guardian newspaper. Second Brexit referendum, getting more likely by the day”
August 3, 2017
Nigel Farage is also commenting on this. In the unlikely event it happened it would completely expose the hypocrisy of Remainers in charge. Which way would they campaign?
August 3, 2017
Dear Hans–Why always the talk of a second close-to-identical overall referendum (and then perhaps a third)? We are always (fatuously in my opinion) being told stuff about the people not knowing what they voted for so OK then let’s ask them, First, Do you want to see an end to free movement? and, Secondly, Do you agree that the ECJ should have no jurisdiction over us? One could add others. How keen would you be on a Referendum like that? Not very I’ll wager–you would be pulverised.
August 3, 2017
He’s talking about a referendum on the final deal.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/aug/03/second-brexit-referendum-case-getting-stronger-political-deadlock-life-raft
“… a second referendum in which the governmentâs deal is put it to the people for legitimation.”
The problem I see is that the UK government could not unilaterally offer the electorate the choice between the new deal it had negotiated and the existing deal, because the existing deal will automatically be coming to an end unless all the other countries, and the EU Parliament, agree to continue it.
It would not be like a referendum on whether to join the EEC, when the answer “No” would have meant a continuation of the status quo with the UK staying out of the EEC, or a referendum on whether to approve an amending treaty, the choice then being between the amended treaties and the status quo of the treaties as they stood, or a referendum on whether to join the euro, where the choice would be to adopt the euro or to keep the status quo of the pound, because it is inherent in Article 50 TEU that the withdrawing state cannot unilaterally decide to stay in the EU after all.
August 3, 2017
Dear Denis–I of course sought to undermine the very idea of a (ridiculous) Referendum on the final deal. Vive le direct democracy! Who can doubt what the answers to my (not exactly cerebrally demanding) questions would be? I hardly care any more what the Government thinks.
August 3, 2017
The BoE is doing nothing. It was announced. How would we do without them is the question.
They are said to have announced yesterday that the forthcoming strike at the BoE by Unison will not affect their work. I think we can trust to that.
August 3, 2017
What about our fishing grounds – it seems Michael Gove has decided they won’t belong to us after we’ve left the EU – but to Danish fishing boats? What kind of sovereign country (with a coastline) doesn’t have its own fishing waters?
It’s a disgraceful sell out of the referendum and democracy if true – hopefully fake news – but his statement needs urgent clarification.
August 3, 2017
Fed UP.. we’ll be able to regain our traditional fishing grounds out to twelve miles – the other fishing limits out to 200 miles are EU waters which includes for Danish fishing boats- but danish boats will not be allowed to fish inside our 12 mile limit without our permission.
August 3, 2017
Nope, our Exclusive Economic Zone out to 200 miles or median line, not EU waters, and foreign boats would need our permission and may need to pay for it if it was granted. I am not entirely against that possibility, provided that we decide whether to grant permission and on what terms.
August 3, 2017
Dear Fed Up–Agreed–But it needs more than the dreaded “clarification”–It needs unequivocal rebuttal in words of one syllable–There are so many in the Cabinet who seem to want to bring on disaster–I forget, how many were thrown out in The Night Of The Long Knives, was it seven?? Something like that is what we need–No problem compiling a suitable list.
August 3, 2017
BBC BoE UK Economy Forecast, Carney ” ..Tusk and what other European Leaders are saying..”
Tusk is not a European Leader. Not even a Polish Leader. Mr Carney is not a UK Leader. He says ” The BoE has no direct hand in negotiations”. No. Nor an indirect hand in negotiations. Nor any hand in negotiations at all even by a smart-phones app coupling it to a robotic hand.
Mr Carney is a Canadian.
August 3, 2017
I think all big business are taking the opportunity of reorganising and consolidating for their future needs and british business following march 2019. After brexit there will still be lots of business for them to pick up in the uk.
August 3, 2017
Mr R
Would you be kind enough to publish something about Ireland at some point? I find it very difficult to see how the Irish are going to consolidate their position after Brexit. How will they react to being told (by Brussels) how they can and cannot interact with the UK? We have at least 2000 years of interraction with the Irish – bad and good – and there are probably more UK citizens with ties to Ireland than not. It’s hard to see that the vindictive EU bureaucracy will allow their vassal to have a “special relationship” with the UK.
Reply I am not the person to advise Ireland on how to handle her membership of the EU after we have left. The UK is wanting positive and friendly relations with no new barriers. Over to the EU.
August 3, 2017
So far the EU has not been particularly disobliging on this:
http://openeurope.org.uk/today/blog/a-light-touch-border-on-the-island-of-ireland-is-the-only-politically-practical-option/
“It is worth noting from the start that the free movement of people would not be affected by the implementation of any form of customs border. Free passage for citizens between the UK and Ireland is currently protected by the EUâs free movement of people, but also by a separate bilateral agreement for a UK-Ireland Common Travel Area (CTA) which has been in place since 1923, long before either party joined the EU. The CTA also includes the non-EU territories of the Isle of Man and the Channel Islands, so while EU free movement may end, the operation of the CTA should not be disrupted by the UKâs withdrawal. Notably, the EU has offered assurances that protocol 20 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, which enshrines the CTA in EU law, will remain in place post-Brexit.”
On the other hand the Irish Taoiseach has been stupid about it.
August 3, 2017
Simple question – what is happening with the Irish border?
a) existing set up
b) Donald Trump Mexican wall / East German Berlin Wall
c) something else with very long queues that most folk will ignore by using farm tracks over the border
August 3, 2017
d) A “light touch” border like that between Norway and Sweden.
http://openeurope.org.uk/today/blog/a-light-touch-border-on-the-island-of-ireland-is-the-only-politically-practical-option/
“Open Europeâs proposal aims to avoid the need for customs checkpoints or any other infrastructure at the border. However, it would not remove the need for customs controls entirely. Instead, most customs checks could take place before or after the border, via pre-departure electronic clearance of goods, and post-arrival audit checks. The most developed model of a virtual border is between Norway and Sweden, where there are only ten customs checkpoints, jointly operated by Norwegian and Swedish authorities. On this border, customs procedures are only required for commercial vehicles, and security is ensured through a control zone with a 15 km radius either side of the border, allowing both authorities to carry out spot checks either side of the border.
The UK and Ireland should aim for a more ambitious arrangement, where there are no customs checkpoints, and the current invisibility of the border is maintained to the greatest extent possible. Open Europe argues that this can be done through electronic clearance systems, wide use of âtrusted traderâ accreditation, and significant bilateral cooperation.”
August 3, 2017
Theresa May is today under pressure to fire a group of Labour and Liberal Democrat politicians charged by Downing Street with promoting UK trade around the world over their continued opposition to Brexit in the year following the EU referendum. One minister has privately raged that some of the UK Trade Envoys are âtalking our country downâ while former Cabinet Minister, Iain Duncan Smith, is calling for them to be replaced.
August 3, 2017
What fantasy world do you live in John Redwood?
You turn a blind eye to the facts. I suggest you listen and read your fellow FT columnist David Allen who seems to have a far greater grasp of the realities. It is so easy to spin lies as during the referendum but the hard facts are coming to roost.