Inflation stays stable at 2.6% on the CPI

The BBC did its best this morning to talk inflation up, inviting on interviewees prepared to say inflation would rise owing to a weaker pound. They were wrong. Inflation stayed stable, with food prices dipping a little. The rise was sustained by Council taxes and associated housing costs and utility bills contributing. These are largely domestic costs given the switch to renewables and the high UK labour content of utility service and local government.

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86 Comments

  1. Lifelogic
    Posted August 15, 2017 at 9:03 am | Permalink

    Indeed why has the BBC such a silly agenda on nearly every issue. Anti Trump (especially), the green crap, electric cars, over taxation, landlord and tenant, over regulation of everything, political correctness over truth, gender pay gap drivel and the endless love of being ruled by EU?

    If we want lower inflation reduce the size of government, lower taxes and cut all the expensive green crap energy drivel and stop wasting money on idiotic & cancelled garden bridges, HS2, Hinkley C, Welsh “Lagoons”, aircraft carriers without aircraft and the likes.
    Get rid of the BBC licence fee too, that would cut inflation by quite a bit for almost everyone and court time too! I get about 20 letters a year from the BBC’s licence fee chasers all at properties with no TV and with building works going on.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted August 15, 2017 at 3:23 pm | Permalink

      Offensive letters they are too.

      • Hope
        Posted August 15, 2017 at 8:27 pm | Permalink

        RPI goes up which determines rail fares and determines your pension!

        We note today Davis has informed us of his bad deal with the EU, he even uses scare mongering language of cliff edge to manufacturing to persuade us it is somehow good! Not allowed to negotiate and implement trade deals with other countries during a transitional period where the U.K. Continues to shove billions of our taxes to the EU. Could he give us his date for resigning? If this is best we can expect from him he needs to walk. What a laughing stock he has made of our country, that we pay the EU racket billions and not allowed to trade with whoever we wish, not in control of our fishing waters, still signing up to security measures for nothing in return, immigration still out of our control. When his he going to tell us we are still subject to the ECJ and we do not control our borders?
        JR, after all your posts your voice is irrelevant in your own party and the 17.4 million people who voted to leave completely let down. Your party and govt is an utter disgrace and shames our proud nation.

        • Turboterrier.
          Posted August 16, 2017 at 6:17 am | Permalink

          @ Hope

          JR, after all your posts your voice is irrelevant in your own party and the 17.4 million people who voted to leave completely let down. Your party and govt is an utter disgrace and shames our proud nation.

          Very sad but soooooo true. The cabinet needs a complete overhaul and lets get people in with some drive, bottle and above all knowledge, experience and belief in getting out of the whole mess we seem to be getting ourselves into, so the people of this country will have a belief, faith and restored pride.

          Reply Strange then that you bother to read what I write and write in to my site! This government will deliver Brexit as required.

          • Turboterrier.
            Posted August 16, 2017 at 3:45 pm | Permalink

            Reply to reply

            Yes I do bother to read your site and if it was you and a few like minded colleagues running this show I would have no fear at all about getting out of the EU. Like a lot of the 17.4m voters for leaving it is my perception that there is too much duck shoving and some would appear to have other agendas in mind. My opinion for what it is worth is just walk away.
            now, why play their game and still end up with a kicking. Our belief in you and you alone just ain’t going to get us out of the EU. The way things are going we need more than a team of one, I don’t see the rest taking on the press, TV and radio at every opportunity with the same conviction as you do.

    • Richard1
      Posted August 15, 2017 at 10:49 pm | Permalink

      You have to hand it to Remain they called the collapse in sterling correctly! Obviously Carney’s words, interest rate policy and QE have helped but we cannot now deny that sterling’s weakness reflects market confidence. I think it’s becoming an issue and the govt and BoE should seek to redress it. Obvious steps would include 1) return interest rates to the pre- Brexit panic level of 0.5% 2) gradually exit QE through gilt maturities and (mainly) 3) the govt to present a much more postive case for Brexit. Davis, Hammond, Fox and obviously May are all completely incoherent as to vision and opportunity. Johnson and Gove we don’t hear from these days. Meanwhile some fool has come out with another bit of Corbyn-friendly tittle tattle about Hammond not respecting Fox. Who cares! May should make it a mission to identify this leaker and publicly dismiss them for gross misconduct as would happen in another job.

      Reply The pound was falling before Brexit. Remains forecasts on house and share prices, unemployment and growth were all hopelessly wrong

      • Richard1
        Posted August 16, 2017 at 7:14 am | Permalink

        Yes both your points are correct but don’t answer my point – the combination of BoE policy and statements and Govt policy / statements are failing to stem the fall. I think it’s now affecting confidence adversely.

  2. Denis Cooper
    Posted August 15, 2017 at 9:04 am | Permalink

    Well, let’s not forget that if you look hard enough you can usually find a cloud for every silver lining, some fly which has dropped into the ointment, and so we have:

    http://news.sky.com/story/rate-of-inflation-remains-steady-at-26-10989254

    “The rate of inflation remained unchanged in July at 2.6%, according to official figures, despite forecasts that it would go up.

    But the rate of Retail Price Index inflation, which is used to set rail season ticket prices, rose to 3.6%, the Office for National Statistics said.”

    However I am genuinely confused about the possible effects of the redefinition of CPI to create CPIH which better reflects housing costs:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices

    “CPIH: % change over 12 months

    2.6%

    2017 JUL”

    I think we may need to check whether the Chancellor has written to the Governor of the Bank of England to instruct him that the target for consumer price inflation will remain unchanged at 2.0% but now it will be CPIH rather than CPI.

    Reply The ONS has only just made it an official national statistic after an experimental period.

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted August 15, 2017 at 9:21 am | Permalink

      Well, apparently not, the most recent remit letter is from March 8th:

      http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetarypolicy/Documents/pdf/chancellorletter080317.pdf

      and that says:

      “I hereby re-confirm the inflation target as 2 per cent as measured by the 12-
      month increase in the Consumer Prices Index (CPI).”

      As it happens the July numbers for CPI and CPIH are the same, 2.6%, but there will always be the possibility of divergence in the future.

      https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/july2017

      “The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) is the most comprehensive measure of inflation. It extends the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) to include a measure of the costs associated with owning, maintaining and living in one’s own home, known as owner occupiers’ housing costs (OOH), along with Council Tax. Both of these are significant expenses for many households and are not included in the CPI.”

      • acorn
        Posted August 15, 2017 at 6:48 pm | Permalink

        Denis, forget all this CPI/CPIH stuff, it is strictly for the birds and know-nothing politicians and media financial hacks.

        Have a look at https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/uksectoraccounts/bulletins/quarterlysectoraccounts/jantomar2017 The metric that is best describing the UK economy at this stage is RHDI. Real Household Disposable Income.

        Particularly look at part 6 and table 1. A minus number is a sector running a deficit, spending more than its income. You will see the Household NPISH sector is well into deficit (debt) and paying for the imports from the Rest-of-the-World (RoW); and, the cash mountains of the non-financial corporations.

        The RoW is amassing a lot of Pounds Sterling as the UK overdoses on imports. That’s OK as long as those foreigners are prepared to keep saving Pounds Sterling. That is, buying Chelsea mansions and premier league football clubs etc with that cash. If they lose faith in the Pound and start selling Pound Sterling assets in exchange for their own or other RoW currency assets …………………

        • Denis Cooper
          Posted August 16, 2017 at 8:11 am | Permalink

          That is not the metric specified by the Treasury under Section 12 0f the Bank of England Act 1998:

          http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/11/section/12

          “The Treasury may by notice in writing to the Bank specify for the purposes of section 11 –

          (a) what price stability is to be taken to consist of … “

      • Sir Joe Soap
        Posted August 15, 2017 at 7:07 pm | Permalink

        CPIH it is then.

  3. NickC
    Posted August 15, 2017 at 9:18 am | Permalink

    From the Daily Telegraph today: “The Brexit Secretary will on Tuesday publish a paper in which he agrees not to implement any new free trade deals until after an “interim” transition period.
    . . . . .

    However Mr Davis will insist that the UK can use the time to formally negotiate and sign free trade deals with nations outside the EU that will be implemented afterwards.

    Never mind the inflation that Carney has engineered to keep his job, the Referendum sell out begins. Business will now face two adjustments, not one – first to the “transition” then second to the real Leave conditions (if those ever materialise).

    All the rest of the world, 164 countries, manage without being controlled by the EU. Why can’t we? What’s so drastically important about the 10% of our economy that it has to control the other 90%?

    • Jason Wells
      Posted August 15, 2017 at 4:52 pm | Permalink

      NickC.. you have it wrong about Carney- he wants to get out as fast as he can. information is that he has had enough of the English whinge and wants to get back to Canada ASAP. You are right however about the sell out to the EU because we are geographically located right on their doorstep, there is no way they can be ignored. The Government knows this now – the penny has dropped, there are no new trade deals happening globally that could ever compensate for the loss of our EU trade.. Liam Fox and Boris knows that- our last great gobal trade deal was called the Empire and it’s gone now and not coming back- so Govt is just trying to get on with the great british adjustment of our times to ‘fudge’ where we are allowed to convince ourselves that we have taken back control and the EU side will just talk kind words and smile in a fatherly sort of way- “the british are such silly billys – they thought they could run away -really?”!

      • NickC
        Posted August 16, 2017 at 11:49 am | Permalink

        Jason, Why have you made up the story that Carney “… wants to get out as fast as he can …”? Can you cite the “information” that he “… has had enough of the English whinge …” please?

        If Carney actually wanted to leave a year ago – after it became obvious that the carnage he predicted when we voted to leave wasn’t coming true – why didn’t he arrange with HMG to leave himself in 3 months?

        The EU may be on the UK’s doorstep but we still export about 50% more to the rest of the world. And our own home, domestic, market is even more on our doorstep and seven times bigger than the value of the EU single market to us. So why don’t the Remains acknowledge how important the non-EU markets are to us? It is because it doesn’t fit their fear meme.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted August 15, 2017 at 5:55 pm | Permalink

      Exactly one of the main advantages of leaving is to get out of the common import tariff which will cut inflation significantly. Will we even get out of this?

    • InthenameofGod Leave
      Posted August 15, 2017 at 7:16 pm | Permalink

      And here was me thinking that having voted to leave the EU in 2016 I might have access to products at lower than EU tariffs before 2022. I guess a rider to the Leave /Remain question might have been whether you wish to leave in the next 1/2/5/10/50 years… Leaving the EU means leaving its tariff arrangements and that should have happened by 23/6/2018.

    • Hope
      Posted August 15, 2017 at 8:41 pm | Permalink

      How does it create certainty, not allowed to negotiate or trade with other nations while still in transition!how,does this provid certainty for business! This prolongs uncertainty with no definitive outcome! Davis also wants the UK to stay in the customs union. Has he been drinking? He needs to walk.
      Oh for a Donald Trump.

  4. alan jutson
    Posted August 15, 2017 at 9:21 am | Permalink

    Good news that inflation for the time being is not increasing, shame that the train fares (it appears) are going to be allowed to be increased by 50% more than this inflation figure.

    • 37/6
      Posted August 15, 2017 at 9:31 pm | Permalink

      The transfer of bill from non rail using taxpayer to the passenger.

      One lady complained about her season ticket but I calculated it at 12p a mile – assuming four weeks holiday and no social use.

  5. hans christian ivers
    Posted August 15, 2017 at 9:37 am | Permalink

    John, a question.

    Will inflation be going up with the continued fall in the pound to most other currencies?

    Does council taxes and utility bills explain the full difference in inflation of more then 1% between the UK and most of the rest of Europe?

    Or are there other reasons?

    Reply No and No.

    • libertarian
      Posted August 15, 2017 at 4:38 pm | Permalink

      hans

      Your questions get dumber and dumber, you continue to display total ignorance of business and the economy. Why do you compare things with some countries in Europe? Try comparing figures for the EU and other countries around the world then get back to us. Try to understand that as a tiny fraction of our economy has anything to do with overseas trade the rate of inflation etc has a number of causes nearly all internal things. If you were in business or knew the first thing about being in business you would know already that the costs have been riding in taxes, regulatory costs, energy costs, duties and wage rises , these are the things causing inflation

      the EU countries dont have mass employment ( more than 20% unemployment in most countries) so they aren’t under wage pressure for a start

    • hans christian ivers
      Posted August 15, 2017 at 5:38 pm | Permalink

      Reply. So is the conclusion then that some of the inflation is due to a falling pound on the back of Brexit?

      • libertarian
        Posted August 16, 2017 at 11:52 am | Permalink

        hans

        UK unemployment down again to 4.4% … hows the jobs going in the EU? Strong Euro though eh ! Must make 54% of Greek youths without a job incredibly happy to know that their currency is strong and inflation is low ….

    • John
      Posted August 15, 2017 at 8:29 pm | Permalink

      Hans, most countries in the EU earn under 1000 euro a month and that is below the World average.

      Lets not worry about inflation for rich countries outside or soon to be outside, the EU.

    • Richard1
      Posted August 15, 2017 at 10:52 pm | Permalink

      Yes and no would be a better bet

  6. Denis Cooper
    Posted August 15, 2017 at 9:51 am | Permalink

    Off-topic:

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/08/the-government-is-brewing-trouble-with-its-brexit-customs-union-plans/

    “The government is brewing trouble with its Brexit customs union plans”

    Plans which have not even been published yet so citizens can read them – check on:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/department-for-exiting-the-european-union

    and have just been privately trailed to various media outlets so they can make an early start on their work of distortion and misinterpretation and condemnation.

    I wonder if David Davis is ever going to learn about managing public relations. He may be fine at the core work, sorting out the technical aspects of our withdrawal from the EU, but he needs somebody to manage the media to keep the public onside.

    • Christine
      Posted August 16, 2017 at 9:42 am | Permalink

      I agree. Rather than reading the newspapers and listening to the BBC both of which distort the truth I think it’s better to go straight to the source. The Government paper entitled Future Customs Arrangements is available to read online. It is only 14 pages so not too long. I was pleased to read that plans for a No Agreement are being put in place. Also that a new Customs Declaration Service (CDS) is being developed. They are asking businesses to consult with them on the way forward and a new Customs Bill will be put before Parliament in the Autumn. There’s a lot of work going on behind the scenes which the public aren’t aware of. I think this is where the Government needs to get its act together and put out a regular joint cabinet statement explaining the reasoning behind their proposals.

      • David Price
        Posted August 17, 2017 at 6:38 am | Permalink

        There may be a lot of work going on behind the scenes but para 49 of the Future Customs Arrangements proposal states;

        “The Government would need to explore the terms of this interim arrangement with the EU across a number of dimensions. The UK has been clear that, once it has left the EU, it intends to pursue new trade negotiations with others. However, the UK would not bring into effect any new arrangements with third countries which were not consistent with the terms of the interim agreement while the interim agreement was in place.

        To me that means not actually taking back control of our trade … unless the interim agreement means that the EU also cannot bring in to effect any new trade arrangements.

        Reply Not necessarily so. This is a discussion document, not a hard UK position. The doc also includes the third option, No deal, where clearly we can negotiate and sign Trade Deals as we wish and the accelerate electronic border option with the same advantages.

  7. Prigger
    Posted August 15, 2017 at 10:00 am | Permalink

    The BBC broadcasters have that high tone of panic in their voices at times just like the Remoaners the day after the Referendum and for ever and ever. Does the BBC know something we don’t in regard to their jobs?

  8. margaret
    Posted August 15, 2017 at 10:14 am | Permalink

    They obviously weren’t using B&M, Lidl or the Pound shop as a random sample basket.

  9. Bob
    Posted August 15, 2017 at 10:23 am | Permalink

    Will you be commenting on the Brexit “postponement” Mr Redwood?

    Reply Its not going to be postponed

    • Lifelogic
      Posted August 15, 2017 at 3:34 pm | Permalink

      What? Is it going to be fully cancelled then?

      I have no faith in “gender pay gap, lets build on EU regulations lets kill the gig economy dead” T May.

      Much sense from Jacob Rees-Mogg in the Telegraph the other day though and indeed from the young Kemi Badenoch MP on Any Questions. There are still a few real Conservatives in the Conservative party I suppose.

    • Peter
      Posted August 15, 2017 at 3:40 pm | Permalink

      Presumably a reference to the ‘temporary customs union’ suggestion from Davis.

      This smacks of kicking the problem into the long grass.

      I agree with Farage it is just more dithering.

      We need to walk away now. EU will just say ‘no’ to everything and spin things out for as long as possible.

      We need to be decisive.

      • hans christian ivers
        Posted August 15, 2017 at 5:40 pm | Permalink

        I disagree as a business we need more time to prepare for the change and the government is right to ask for a transition after 2019

        • alan jutson
          Posted August 16, 2017 at 7:29 am | Permalink

          Hans

          Why do you need more time, you are still none the wiser even if transitional terms apply, because you do not know what those terms are either, as they also have to be negotiated with the EU.

          Seems to me all you want to do along with many others, is put leaving on the never, never pile.

          I would suggest you make a contingency plan for WTO rules/terms.

        • libertarian
          Posted August 16, 2017 at 11:53 am | Permalink

          hans

          What is your business? I mean if like me you’re in digital then the EU is irrelevant, it killed itself with its own daft regulations.

          So what is it exactly that your business needs to prepare for?

      • Lifelogic
        Posted August 15, 2017 at 5:58 pm | Permalink

        Exactly leave properly now and negotiate after we have left.

        The negotiations will go on for ever more anyway.

    • Bob
      Posted August 15, 2017 at 6:36 pm | Permalink

      “Will you be commenting on the Brexit “postponement” Mr Redwood?
      Reply Its not going to be postponed”

      That’s great news ! 🙂
      So we will be able to negotiate FTAs with the rest of the world after 2019?

      • Denis Cooper
        Posted August 16, 2017 at 8:03 am | Permalink

        That is not the test for whether Brexit has occurred. Turkey is not in the EU but it is in a customs union with the EU customs union which restricts its freedom to conclude trade deals around the world. Clearly we would not want to end up in the same position as Turkey on a permanent basis, but that is not what is being proposed:

        https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/637748/Future_customs_arrangements_-_a_future_partnership_paper.pdf

        “48. The Government is keen to explore with the EU a model for an interim period which would ensure that businesses and people in the UK and the EU only have to adjust once to a new customs relationship. This could be delivered through a continued close association with the EU Customs Union for a time-limited period after the UK has left the EU … ”

        So the “continued close association” with the EU Customs Union would be “AFTER the UK has left the EU”, it would not delay Brexit, and it would be “for a time-limited period”.

        It would be for negotiation how far we could go with FTAs with the rest of the world during that transitional period; for example it could be that we could negotiate and even conclude deals, but with them only coming into effect at the end of the transitional period.

  10. Beecee
    Posted August 15, 2017 at 10:34 am | Permalink

    To paraphrase something Miss Mandy Rice-Davis was reported to have said:-

    Well the BBC would, wouldn’t they?

    Is it now time for the BBC to have their access to Government Ministers etc restricted?

    • getahead
      Posted August 15, 2017 at 6:46 pm | Permalink

      BBC staff and Government ministers belong to the same club. There will be no restrictions.

  11. Shopper
    Posted August 15, 2017 at 10:43 am | Permalink

    … with food prices dipping a little… I shop mainly online nowadays. I await offers from rival companies egs “15% off your next order” “No delivery costs for the next month” and big reductions on various items. My shopping bill continues to decrease rapidly. If I shopped in addition personally “in-shop” I know I would theoretically save even more money. Unfortunately, like most people, I “impulse shop” in person and feel hungry looking at the hands-on goods. So I shop online where my taste buds are not so activated at tiny photos of food. With one company, it automatically compares my “shop” with another leading retailer and compensates me if their prices prove to be lower. Rule Britannia!

  12. Ian Wragg
    Posted August 15, 2017 at 10:53 am | Permalink

    So inflation is largely due to government interference into all aspects of our life.
    We are going into a recession but it is nothing to do with Brexit but entirely due to excessive taxation.
    Government steals money to spend overseas and UK spending goes down. Simples really.

  13. Lifelogic
    Posted August 15, 2017 at 11:16 am | Permalink

    Stamp duty cost economy billions by stopping people living where they want says think tank.

    Well of course it does, as was blindingly obvious before the idiot Osborne introduced it and Hammond kept it. At up to 15% it is totally absurd. It even kills many new property developments, building jobs and thus restricts housing supply. This as many projects are no longer profitable with perhaps two lots of stamp duty to pay (in and out).

    Please can we get a sensible chancellor as we have not had one in my lifetime? I suppose Lawson and Lamont came closest (and they are fairly sound now). But even they made very many basic errors in relation to the ERM fiasco, fiscal and monetary policy and the politically misguided poll tax.

    I am happy to advise free of charge – to avoid all these basic and blindingly obvious errors in fiscal policy.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted August 15, 2017 at 11:24 am | Permalink

      The May/Hammond/Taylor attacks on the GIG economy and “building on EU workers rights” would be hugely damaging too.

      To the workers, the economy, businesses and even to tax revenues.

    • hefner
      Posted August 15, 2017 at 3:56 pm | Permalink

      Please give references for both seller and buyer having to pay stamp duty. Thanks in advance.

      • Lifelogic
        Posted August 15, 2017 at 6:05 pm | Permalink

        That is not what I said. If you buy a property in order to develop it you have to pay stamp duty when you buy and then, when you sell the finished units, the buyers have to pay it yet again. It can easily end up at 20% or so making many developments uneconomic.

        Plus agents fees, over expensive utility connections, land registy fees, building regulation fees, daft green crap building regulation obligations, planning fees, social housing provision “taxes”, planning gain “taxes” and the rest.

    • Posted August 15, 2017 at 8:48 pm | Permalink

      Thanks for the offer life logic.

      But we’ll pass on that. You clearly have no idea how the monetary system works you still think we use the gold standard.

      We left that decades ago.

    • Richard1
      Posted August 15, 2017 at 10:56 pm | Permalink

      Geoffrey Howe was very sound in the context of the time.

  14. Mick
    Posted August 15, 2017 at 11:55 am | Permalink

    Not just the BBC but also sky, if they hate Britain that much they should pack there bags and belongings and go and operate in there beloved eu, anti British are not welcomed here so go and shut the door behind you

    • hans christian ivers
      Posted August 15, 2017 at 5:43 pm | Permalink

      MIck,

      I am pro-Britain and British but still believe in remaining, are these things so contradictory?

      So a Dane who loves Denmark but is still pro EU, what is he then?

  15. Jack
    Posted August 15, 2017 at 12:26 pm | Permalink

    Lower interest rates cause lower inflation, too. So the longer the BoE keeps rates low, the less inflation pressures.

    Overall though, currency movements generally cause a one-off effect on the inflation rate, so it should be expected that this inflation should slow over time, unless the BoE raises rates and causes higher inflation that way. Japan is a good example, their currency depreciated by about 30% in 2013/14, and they had a higher inflation rate (2-3% minus sales tax effects) for a year or so before dropping back into deflation.

    • Jack
      Posted August 15, 2017 at 12:31 pm | Permalink

      Currency depreciation only causes runaway inflation when central banks respond to it with higher interest rates, which makes the inflation worse.

      Sadly only those of us who understand the monetary system “get” this, so we have to sit back and watch central bankers make decisions on things they don’t even understand….

  16. Mark
    Posted August 15, 2017 at 1:04 pm | Permalink

    I read that universities plan to deflate the value of degrees still further by reducing admissions standards so as to fill places. Apparently they have only just discovered that there is a smaller cohort of school leavers this year, despite having had 18 years notice. Wasting taxpayer money in this way really has to stop.

    • John
      Posted August 15, 2017 at 9:12 pm | Permalink

      True, did my Jury service Mark and there was a recent post graduate in Business and Finance UoH in the Doc.

      Partly for money laundering his drug dealing business. His attempt at money laundering was pathetic, juvenile and lacked any reasonable attempt at building the ground work to cover his illicit dealings. That, not to mention the slap dash Rolex box thrown on the back seat with receipt and not yet sold on, leaves me to wonder what value is a degree if the end product is so poor in its delivery.

      I’m astounded he got a degree, I would have expected more achievement in covering up seeing as we paid VERY dearly for that education!!

      Additionally, he will never pay back his student loans being that he only deals in cash so will never post taxable earnings to HMRC, as we established.

      Thank you for raising the subject so I could offload this rant.

      Regards

  17. agricola
    Posted August 15, 2017 at 1:07 pm | Permalink

    Needless to say a large majority of workers and pensioners are getting relatively poorer because their incomes are not keeping pace with inflation. The last time I was in England I found it noticeably more expensive.

  18. David Ashton
    Posted August 15, 2017 at 2:10 pm | Permalink

    Also, the BBC and other news networks have been pushing the 3.6% increase in train fares based on a previous “RPI” figure, to avoid the flat CPI figures for this month.

  19. Fed Up
    Posted August 15, 2017 at 2:29 pm | Permalink

    John – is there anything the government can do about the BBC and its rather one sided opinion on everything, especially when it comes to Brexit and government spending? If you ever have time to blog on that, then I think many of us would be very interested.

  20. Tabulazero
    Posted August 15, 2017 at 2:42 pm | Permalink

    You should read the comments in the continental press about the latest U.K. proposal on the bespoke custom union…

    “C’est la politique du beurre et de l’argent du beurre, du sourire de la fermière et de la fille de la crémière.”

    It might make sense in terms of Conservative politicking but it is definitely not going down well.

    Reply Fine. So how many tariffs and barriers do they want on their exports to us?

    • Tabulazero
      Posted August 15, 2017 at 3:47 pm | Permalink

      Mr Redwood, I really do not think the big EU peasant revolt you are hoping for to deliver a Brexit that is acceptable to you is going to happen.

      I do not see any sign in the press, the political discourse or interviews of business leaders of any willingness to let you have your cake and eat it.

      The reaction from the editorialists but also and more interestingly the readers’ comment to the U.K. latest proposal are pretty dire to say the least.

      The overwhelming reaction to it is a huge incredulity.

      Sorry.

      Reply In that case we will leave with no deal.

      • Tabulazero
        Posted August 15, 2017 at 4:41 pm | Permalink

        I think this possibly true.

        The more the talks continue, the more of a binary outcome it becomes. It is either a) hard Brexit or b) no Brexit at all and a humiliating return to the fold.

        In terms of traditional French foreign policy objectives, a or b achieve the same result: the UK’s influence on Continental affairs is diminished for many years to come.

        I suspect the French establishment wants a. You are our oldest enemy after all.

        • Denis Cooper
          Posted August 16, 2017 at 7:47 am | Permalink

          “You are our oldest enemy after all”.

          Another foreigner poking his nose into our affairs?

      • libertarian
        Posted August 15, 2017 at 4:45 pm | Permalink

        Tabulazero

        The fact that a proportion of EU citizens can’t see the writing on the wall says more about them than us. You really do need to get a grip on your wishful thinking.

        It astounds me ( or maybe not) that the hard core remain camp such as yourself seem incapable of thinking up a proposition that would help your cause, you seem incapable of sacking the low quality technocrats who have got the EU in this mess and you dont seem to have any argument other than Brexiteers are wrong you just wait and see, they are , they will suffer honestly they will. Wishful thinking at best and real poor analysis .

        1/10 must try harder

      • Oggy
        Posted August 15, 2017 at 5:46 pm | Permalink

        Well Mr Zero you misunderstand a lot of us here in the UK who don’t want any transitional deal, as transition = still in the EU.
        You mentioned a ‘Brexit that is acceptable to you’ – certainly for many of us the only acceptable Brexit is a clean break, which thankfully will be inevitable due to EU intransigence.
        Better to be a poor master rather than a rich servant.
        As for the EU pundits they can ‘go whistle’.

      • Roy Grainger
        Posted August 15, 2017 at 5:52 pm | Permalink

        John – Do you not find it curious that the government make announcements on how Brexit will happen – the transition period for example – without any indication the EU would agree to such a thing ? What is the point ?

        • Denis Cooper
          Posted August 16, 2017 at 7:12 am | Permalink

          https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-customs-proposals-laid-out-by-government-in-new-paper-on-future-relationship-with-the-eu

          “A new paper setting out proposals for a future customs relationship with the EU has been unveiled today by the Government …”

          These are not “announcements on how Brexit will happen”, they are UK proposals which will be discussed with the EU. Why you should think that is “curious” is beyond me.

        • Know-Dice
          Posted August 16, 2017 at 8:39 am | Permalink

          It “draws a line in the sand” from which the negotiations can begin…

        • Mark
          Posted August 16, 2017 at 9:29 am | Permalink

          What is the point of the EU making impossible demands that they know we will reject, as they have done on the exit fee, rights for EU citizens, etc.? It’s setting a negotiating stance.

      • Sir Joe Soap
        Posted August 15, 2017 at 6:20 pm | Permalink

        Yes, no deal, no cash for the EU after March 2019 and 10% duty on cars, 40% duty on butter to match what they put on NZ (and other third country) imports. Let’s give third countries a break and let them sell to us. We voted for that, not 40% customs barriers from NZ etc.

      • Sir Joe Soap
        Posted August 15, 2017 at 6:49 pm | Permalink

        But your party in government is proposing to levy the HIGHEST duty, between the EU import duty and the third country proposed duty. In other words, we conclude an agreement with say NZ in June 2019 to levy a 2% import duty on butter but we go on paying 40% until your government chooses to PROPERLY exit the EU. So we haven’t actually left the EU because we are paying their duties! The whole point of this was to REDUCE our input costs, not for them to stay the same. The EU could infact levy quotas on NZ products, which we would presumably also need to follow, continuing to buy from France etc., and totally negating the vote to leave. We are being defrauded.

      • fedupsoutherner
        Posted August 16, 2017 at 5:33 am | Permalink

        @Tabulazero

        Its not unexpected to find that countries in the EU don’t want to be friendly or sensible. Has it ever been any other way. No wonder so many of us didn’t want to join your little club in the first place.

    • Sir Joe Soap
      Posted August 15, 2017 at 7:03 pm | Permalink

      The way around this is surely to revert to third country (WTO) duties for ALL countries which are third countries to the UK until free trade agreements can be signed. We then have the whip hand – we are net importers and will be much stronger to decide who we do and don’t wish to deal with, without the shadow of the EU beside us. Davis is kicking the can down the road with this “cunning plan” for a temporary customs union. We don’t need one. Let’s set tariffs and deals to suit our own businesses, not those of Germany and France, and actually let’s set the ball rolling with proposing zero tariffs, because we actually want to be friends with the non-EU countries, and not enemies which put 40-50% tariffs on third countries’ products!

      • InthenameofGod Leave
        Posted August 15, 2017 at 7:22 pm | Permalink

        As for Ireland, it has a clear choice then – sell ag. products to us but at 40% import duty or leave the EU cartel and enjoy a free trade agreement and seamless border. Easy.

        • InthenameofGod Leave
          Posted August 15, 2017 at 7:27 pm | Permalink

          As for exporters – there’s a big world out there, and it’s growing fast – don’t get hung up on the flailing EU. Where’s the government encouragement for manufacturers to diversify their export sales?

  21. Brian
    Posted August 15, 2017 at 4:52 pm | Permalink

    The Independent is today claiming that rail fares will greatly increase because of the inflationary effect of Brexit. Please continue to tell us the facts.

  22. Barney
    Posted August 15, 2017 at 5:26 pm | Permalink

    Am afraid that d davis plan re proposed future customs union arrangements is all pie in the sky as verhoffstadt has attested.

    The three parts of our exit business from the eu will have to be agreed to first..the clock is ticking as barniet has said and our crowd are just coming back from summer hols..jeez

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted August 16, 2017 at 7:05 am | Permalink

      And you automatically believe whatever the eurofederalist Verhofstadt says?

  23. Brigham
    Posted August 15, 2017 at 5:54 pm | Permalink

    I complained about the biased BBC to my MP (Damian Collins) and he didn’t think they were biased.

  24. PaulW
    Posted August 15, 2017 at 9:11 pm | Permalink

    With the pound greatly devalued against other currencies and with costs of living rising while wages are stagnant i don’t know what we can cheer about. The world economies are in the doldrums and with a clearly unhinged president in the US I really don’t see a future or a way forward. For our part Britain who already belongs to an economic club of 28 nations 600 million people, consumers all, on our doorstep wants to cut loose and look to discover new trade deals with countries worldwide. That the UK would think that it could set up an economic trading block inside the eu customs union with freedom to trade with countries world wide, in direct opposition or in competition with the EU bloc is complete nonsense- the EU elected and unelected people can see it, they see right through and are not going to facilitate this. Here i’m not even talking about the Irish border or the movement of eu and uk citizens..listening to d davis tonight?.. it doesn’t inspire

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted August 16, 2017 at 7:00 am | Permalink

      “That the UK would think that it could set up an economic trading block inside the eu customs union with freedom to trade with countries world wide … ”

      That is nowhere near what is being proposed by the UK government, try reading the position paper before commenting on it.

  25. Turboterrier.
    Posted August 16, 2017 at 6:05 am | Permalink

    largely domestic costs given the switch to renewables

    If it is that obvious to you that our energy policy is floored, when will enough politicians join up to get the Climate Change Act debated with a view to getting it repealed. This act as it is being allowed to be implemented is costing the country billions and is totally unsustainable.

  26. Bryan Harris
    Posted August 16, 2017 at 6:45 am | Permalink

    Despit the new BBC charter – of which I’ve seen little detail TBH – the BBC has not changed its practices in the least – they still treat us all with contempt, never mind that their bread and butter services, IE to supply decent television is corrupted beyond anything sensible.

    The BBC needs to be brought down to Earth with a big bump – they are out of control, enforcing their collective “loser Britain” views on us all!

    Surely we do not have to wait for the next charter renewal to make te BBC behave with decency!

  27. Denis Cooper
    Posted August 16, 2017 at 6:51 am | Permalink

    Off-topic, Sir Nicholas Winton of Kindertransport fame is something of a local hero and the council has laid out a garden in his honour in a nearby park, with some of his more famous, inspirational, sayings on display.

    Here are three which our Remoaner friends might like to take on board:

    “I have a motto that if something isn’t blatantly impossible, then there must be a way of doing it.”

    “There is nothing that can’t be done if it’s fundamentally reasonable.”

    “Anything that is not actually impossible can be done if one really sets one’s mind to do it and is determined that it shall be done.”

    I’m sick of hearing these unpatriotic, anti-democratic and often ignorant and rather stupid fanatical supporters of EU membership whining away day after day in the media, saying that this or that cannot be done or there is no precedent for it or it will not be allowed by the EU, basically hoping in their treacherous hearts that their own country will fail.

  28. Tabulazero
    Posted August 16, 2017 at 3:20 pm | Permalink

    New YouGov Eurotrack survey highlights the conflicting Brexit priorities of the public in Britain and Europe

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/08/15/eurotrack-britons-top-brexit-priority-immigration-/

    Yougov poll. For what it is worth, there does not appear to be a lot of willingness from the German or the French public to cut Brexit Britain a sweet deal.

    This is interesting because the sample is not the usual pro-EU editorialists or other pro-EU politicians.

  29. Lindsay McDougall
    Posted August 17, 2017 at 1:10 am | Permalink

    But CPI doesn’t include a measure of house prices, does it? Not rentals, not mortgage payments but house PRICES. If we used a measure of inflation that included house prices – and prices of works of art, fine wines and gold – we would realise the damage that our ultra-loose monetary policy is still doing.

  • About John Redwood


    John Redwood won a free place at Kent College, Canterbury, He graduated from Magdalen College Oxford, has a DPhil and is a fellow of All Souls College. A businessman by background, he has been a director of NM Rothschild merchant bank and chairman of a quoted industrial PLC.

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