The Governor of the Bank of England has a consistent track record over interest rates. Three times he statedĀ conditions for a possible Ā increase, only to fail to put them up each time we reached those conditions. He then followed this tour de force by actually lowering them instead.
He has now again suggested rates might need to go up soon. Why should we believe him this time? He has after all made a mess of forecasting the economy for the period after the Brexit vote, expecting a sharp slow down and technical recession when for the first half year after the vote the economy accelerated. He has also shown a marked inability to predict his own actions in the past.
His latest reasoning is based on the thesis that overseas rates are trending upwards. The markets instead think US rates are going to stay down as they edge instead towards cancelling some of the QE and bonds they have bought up. Rates inĀ large countries Ā like India and Brazil are coming down, whilst rates in the Euroland and ChinaĀ do not look as if they are Ā about to rise.
He also alleges that Brexit could harm the UK’s productive capacity and thus worsen the trade off between inflation and growth. This reveals two substantial misunderstandings about our modern economy. The first is that if by any chance we do leave with no trade deal there will be considerable demand for imports to substitute for items like food where EU imports suddenly become dearer thanks to tariffs on top of the dearer Euro. As we have a large deficit it could actually boost productive capacity. The second is the Bank’s old fashioned idea that as you approach capacity working so inflation shoots up ignores the simple fact that we are running an open economy. If we run out of domestically produced tomatoes we import a lot from somewhere else rather than putting up the price of UK ones. if UK wages costs start to rise the EU sends us plenty Ā of extra workers to keep the wages down.
I note now that the pound is only 4% below its average in the months running up to the referendum against the dollar, and only 2% below against the yen. We don’t hear about the pound anymore from all the Remain facing media! The Euro meanwhile goes from strength to strength against all major currencies.
September 20, 2017
John
That is not even schoolboy economics. It is not a good thing if we are obliged to substitute cheap food for home grown expensive food . It is even worse if resources currently employed in areas where we have an advantage are deployed to keeping us alive
Even extremist Brexit- wreckers are admitting two things
1 Article 50 should never have been triggered
2 It is not a question of how good it will be but how many decades it will take to recover
You are not alone in establishing that there was another Brexit in your head , that would have worked . This shows what everyone begins to see , it is not going to work .
On currency the Euro has dragged the pound up.Brexit sent the pound down , it happened in real time and it was unmistakeable. You have only just stopped pretending this was a good thing …for exports . Its comical.
PS I asked if contracts made requiring he underpinning of the single market in capital would have to cease at the time of Brexit or at the contract`s inception
This would apply to any Insurance Policy issued with pass-ported security , for example .
You clearly did not understand the question but you will relieved to hear that the the German Authorities were able to give us a prompt and clear answer.
September 20, 2017
Once the Article 50 letter was sent you should have shut up.
Your type of hysteria is playing into the other side’s negotiating team’s hands.
Please decide. Are you British or are you EU ? You can’t be both now.
September 21, 2017
“The other side ”
He is the other side.
September 20, 2017
If you look at the value of Sterling over a longer period if time you will see that it has been falling long before an EU referendum was even called.
This nothing to do with us leaving the EU
September 20, 2017
Nerwmania, That is not even schoolboy economics. EU food is not cheap. Home grown food is not more expensive. World food prices are lower than EU food prices. We will set our own tariffs.
As an extremist Brexit-wrecker you seem impervious to the reality that the rest of the world gets by just fine outside the EU yet has access to the EU’s single market (which as James Dyson said, isn’t even a single market, even for goods). Moreover as a floating currency the euro couldn’t “drag the pound up”. That’s comical.
As a strong leave voter I admit that I never wanted to invoke Art50. That is because we should have given 12 months notice and left to trade under WTO rules. We could have been out already. And recovery from being dragged down by the EU would have already started.
I missed your original question to JR, thank God. For if your question was as unintelligible as your explanation I am not surprised he didn’t answer. My rule is: if you can’t explain clearly, then you don’t understand it yourself. You appear to be mixing up capital transfers within the EEA with (presumably non-life) insurance which is governed by Directive 92/49/EEC. Insurance is cross border sold within the EEA on a FOS basis (usually). Security is governed by Solvency II, which also allows for the conclusion of mutual recognition agreements with third countries. That’s us after Brexit.
September 21, 2017
Newmania has an inflated opinion of himself. Always has.
September 21, 2017
That inflation has been incraesed by Brexit
September 21, 2017
Nick
Pompous aren`t you I am not sure you have understood what you have said?
Sticking to non life – Mutual recognition is what pass-porting is which is going to be lost. The City has given up on it so have Insurers.
Solvency 2 is another tier of regulation and if it has an option for something it is not, this fact is irrelevant .
Such a thing has not been agreed and there is no reason to suppose it will be agreed.
This, Nick ( now concentrate /ā¦.. ) would mean full access to the single market without the costs precisely what we cannot have !!!!!
There are three options for nonlife
Recognition of parent capital by the FCA here in some wider formula and visa versa
Retaining passporting (by another name or not )
Finding more capital for fronting or subsidiaries
The working assumption is that it will have to be the third because the government has no idea what it is doing and is happy to let the City and Insurance suffer
Still if you know something I donāt please spill the beans there are thousands of people who would love to know they can stop worrying. Thousands of professionals Nick!!!!
But you know best
My question was essentially whether a Policy could be issued into the UK from the EU/EEA after March 2018 as by March 2019 it would have no EU Treaty by which the security was recognised.
I know the answer
Do you ?
September 22, 2017
NickC: “EU food is not cheap. Home grown food is not more expensive.”
Not only that, it’s a matter of record that we were promised cheaper food before we joined the EEC, by that old Tory, Heath. And food prices skyrocketed after we joined.
Now it’s a moot point that was due to the British governments inflation policy or the EEC, or a combination of both. But it’s an indisputable fact that the CAP was a scheme designed to favour French small and part time farmers and discriminate against the larger scale and more efficient British farmers.
Joining the EEC also levied duty on Commonwealth produce, Australian and NewZealand mutton and butter for example.
September 21, 2017
Remainers are causing ‘Brexit uncertainty’. They keep telling the rest of us that we feel cheated by Boris.
No we don’t.
September 20, 2017
You’ve consistently been correct in all you’ve written about the BoE Governor. Sadly he’s beyond a joke, as his statements are so damaging. We called for him to go before the Ref and we regret that’s he’s still in post.
Regarding the PM’s ‘Florence speech’ in just 2 days’ time, we’ve published another upbeat piece this morning about how positive we should all feel about our economy. We hope the PM can use the optimism and good news as a counterpoint to the misery she hears from the Treasury officials all the time.
Best wishes, the Brexit Facts4EU.Org team
http://facts4eu.org/news.shtml
September 20, 2017
Twisting and turning. Carney talks too much in contradictory fashion after release of major data and announcements like last week.
September 20, 2017
Indeed you make all the right points. Why on earth has Carney been allowed to stay on after his abject record of failure and his outrageous Brexit threats to voters?
The title of his D.Phil thesis was “The dynamic advantage of competition” according to wiki, perhaps he should get back to that agenda, or did he perhaps conclude there was none given the UK banking system? He is both absurdly over paid and rather incompetent. We are lumbered with him (and the absurd 15% stamp duty) all thanks to the economic illiterate George Osborne – both Carney and the 15% should go immediately.
September 20, 2017
Listening to Vince Cable yesterday he confirmed, once again, that the Libdems are wrong of every issue – the EU, the climate alarmism, expensive greencrap energy, the education system, the NHS, taxation, housing, transport, the size of the state sector, endless interventions, voting at 16 ……… he reminded me of a less robotic version of Theresa May. Where, after all, are the differences? The only ones seem to be the voting at 16 and the fact that T May now belatedly claims to be in favour of a sort of fudged and expensive Brexit.
Perhaps that is why the Libdims only have twelve MPs. Does T May aspire to that number too?
Let us hope she proves me wrong and comes out with a sensible more Boris like agenda in her speech on Friday. Let us have some positive vision from her for once. All she has to do is remember the simple rule if the Libdems want it is halfwitted, socialist and will not work.
She should take her cue from the Boris article in the Telegraph some positive vision please not a vacuous, socialist robot droning on about daft projects like Hinkley C, green subsidies & HS2, gender pay and other perceived “discrimination”, mugging the gig economy, increasing taxes still further.
September 21, 2017
The LibDems appear to look at every other Party’s manifestos and think “How can we be different?” and then no matter how absurd the “difference”advocate those policies as being sensible.
It it is a psychological flaw and truth that humans often try the “different” sometimes to the point of stupidity. LibDems are banking on “The Point of Stupidity and they are well led in this area by Vince Cable who has a track record of such and axles in his thinking on such.
September 21, 2017
Prigger. The LimDims remind me of the SNP in that respect.
September 20, 2017
Good morning.
The pound has been falling for a long time. many reasons, but, overall this is a indicator that investors perhaps no longer see the UK and its currency as a good deal. Perhaps they, like me, can see the UK economy beginning to slow down.
The Governor if the BoE mentions that interest rates may rise and, up shoots the pound ! Perhaps a subtle form of currency manipulation methinks ? And even if he does deliver on this this time, it is hardly likely to go up to an eye watering 15% like it was at the time of the Conservative / ERM Crisis.
The EU has hit rock bottom and is beginning to recover. Investors see this as an opportunity, so hence the buying of Euros.
—
Off topic.
I saw on YouTube the POTUS Donald Trump give a fine speech at the UN. He spoke of many things, some I agree with, some I do not. But one subject that truly touched me was the one about the nation state and sovereignty. I truly felt he was speaking to us, the people of the UK and those that seek independence from the EU. It is well worth listening to. He talked about democracy and the tree most important words in the USA Constitution – “We the people . . . “. He spoke of democracy, national pride and the importance of maintaining ones own culture. He spoke of mass immigration and the damage it causes. Not just to the host country but to the country that people are leaving.
The English people also wish to be recognised. We too want to be masters in our own country and want those we elect to office to represent us on English matters as others have in our Union. We do not ask for more, we ask for the same !
September 20, 2017
Another mistake by Orborne to install a foreign worker at the BoE, who clearly is a globalist, but doesn’t fully understand how Britain operates, and may not always have our best interests at heart.
Next time, we want a home grown BoE governor …
September 20, 2017
Indeed and he was absurdly expensive too. Did Osborne get anything right? He certainly left absurdly high tax rates and absurd tax complexity and his attacks on the the non doms were hugely damaging to the economy. All this just to finance the moronic vanity projects, the green crap subsidies and to feather bed the boated and largely inept state sector?
September 20, 2017
Not sure it was a mistake. He does what he is told by the remaining chancellors. Any decent PM would have sent him packing based on his record, pointed out by JR.
We read how the Parson Green bombers came from France through no border checks to England. When oh when is Rudd going to be sacked? How many lives lost or injured under her watch through lack of vetting, no proper border controls? Yet the remainers want a transitional deal! So we continue to be unsafe, murdered or maimed. Safety before economics. The useless deflection by May to blame others on the internet. She increased powers through the snooper charter with no affect whatsoever on our safety. Just to allow councils to look at our internet browsing. How could this possibly make us safe?
The alternative is back to the looney left! May better keep Boris because there are few vote winners in the Tory party.
September 20, 2017
We were very, very lucky that there was not another 20+ people killed in this appalling attack.
September 20, 2017
Next time, we want a home grown BoE governor ā¦ And the sooner the better.
This worker is not a low paid one, but a grossly overpaid one, and as our host has pointed out, one whose forecasts are consistently wrong.
September 20, 2017
You do wonder what for want of a generic term the CIA might give a big ask of certain actors.
September 20, 2017
Hands up…who wants Osborne back in the cabinet?!
(article,today’s Daily Telegraph)
There’s only one foreigner I would remotely consider,that’s Russia’s Elvira Nabiullina who knows who to run the central bank of a fully sovereign country and combat the forces of globalism.
September 20, 2017
Their record isn’t necessarily that great either. It’s the policies and the philosophy which matters not the nationality of the governor
September 20, 2017
Why on earth would they employ a foreigner in that role in the first place?
September 20, 2017
He is anti-Brexit and a core Remainer (his brief) pure and simple…why? because Brexit does not fit with the globalist “Banking” plans?
It is a mystery why he is allowed to remain in this anti-British position?…not really!
September 20, 2017
He seems rather into the climate alarmism religion too, as is his wife I understand.
He is the last thing we need at the bank. The banking regulation are preventing the banks making perfectly sound loans. HSBC only seem to be interested in commercial property loans if they are over several million due to the weight of misguided regulation on them. How can it be that the banks pay .25% on (unsecured) deposits yet charge from 4.00% to 30%+ on lending that is usually very well secured. There is a total lack of competition in banking (has Carney not noticed this) better to borrow from a friend and cut out the rip off middle man.
September 20, 2017
He is not anti Brexit. He is pro reality.
September 20, 2017
OK, I am listening. Please eruditely explain why he is pro-reality, and what “pro-reality” is, in your opinion?
September 21, 2017
See DRW’s contribution this 21/09 at 05:23.
It would be good if some here could lose the scales they have on their eyes.
September 20, 2017
Agree totally. An ex Governor seems to be playing a blinder at present, what about a come back?
September 20, 2017
JR, please confirm that you actually wrote the above? There are a few phrases that suggest you have shifted to a “softer” Brexit position???
Reply No shift
September 20, 2017
Perhaps Carney is operating with Hammond with a ‘cunning plan’? ‘Nuf said.
September 20, 2017
Carney says he is going to put up rates because it has a similar but smaller impact than actually putting up rates – however when the markets notice that what he says doesn’t actually happen this crying wolf won’t be effective any more.
I would be interested to hear from you John whether you think rates should go up directly or whether the QE bond-buying exercise itself should be unwound with bonds being re-sold into the market which would more indirectly raise interest rates.
September 20, 2017
Remain facing media !
Yes. One particular branch had better tread carefully. If a leading Remainer refuses to pay its licence fee it can guarantee that millions will follow. We will crowd fund anyone prosecuted.
People are sick do death with the BBC.
September 20, 2017
@Anonymous
I stopped paying for a TV Licence years ago.
I get plenty of threatening letters in bold red typeface, which go straight into the bin.
September 20, 2017
The enemy isn’t Carney, it’s Heywood, May and Hammond. These 3 individuals will betray the United Kingdom. They will betray the Queen. They will betray democracy and they will betray the divine will of the British people. And what do Tory MP’s do? They remain silent.
The issue of interest rates fade into absolute insignificance when compared to the fundamental issue of the sovereign status of the UK
If we can’t look to the Conservative Party to take back control of our country from the grasping clutches of the EU what hope is there?
September 20, 2017
JR: “He then followed this tour de force by actually lowering them instead.”
British government is in a bind. It has encouraged through its long term ultra low interest rate policy, everyone to load up on debt.
Now as companies have obliged and their debt load ballooned, Carney can put a significant fraction of businesses out of business by simply raising rates.
Clever!
September 20, 2017
The Euro goes from strength to strength. Euros 40 to UK 39.4 in Spain @ Santander . I was surprised at this small difference. Is this due to productivity?
September 20, 2017
He is between a rock and a hard place. The economic necessity to increase rates and the government with it’s massive borrowing wishing that they remain as low as possible. Who is really in control?
September 20, 2017
The BoE refuses to take its target seriously, nor does the Chancellor insist on this.
The Bank can (aims to) blame a possible reduction in cheap labour, or supply chain friction – due to Brexit – for its failure.
The Bank forgets micro.
The Bank/government forget that growing labour too quickly associates with lower productivity or GDP per capita growth.
The Bank has focussed for more than an average business cycle on short term, demand side stabilisation policies.
Cheap labour + low inflation means low risk, low investment projects are good enough.
September 20, 2017
You clearly did not understand the question
Excuse me that sounds rather supercilious , of course you would nor understand it isn`t your business
September 20, 2017
Sadly John and I do no think I am alone in that I have little to no faith in Mr Carney since he was appointed.
He just doesn’t tick all the boxes and dovetail with the British mentality of getting things done. Two left feet and out of step with the rest of us. Another classic example of someone appointed to a very responsible position who consistently has over promised and under delivered in the way he operates. Sadly he is not alone as we have more than enough politicians with the same mindset who support him.
September 20, 2017
Was Mr Carney really the best person available at the time to head up the Bank of England.
George Osbourne thought so, I guess with Cameron’s agreement, which says it all really.
Lets hope the next incumbent of the BOE can make a better job of it.
September 21, 2017
I thought Mr Carney was the best for the job. Much of my information on him was from Canadian sources. I should have realised that unlike the BBC which seems a Soft Pravda, the Canadian broadcasters if not politically biased do support one of their own who gets into a prestigious position . It is, I believe, due to national pride which in itself is not such a bad thing. In hope however the British government puts in a good word for Osborne if he ever seeks a similar position in Canada.
September 20, 2017
Hammond and Carney are in collusion. Carney would like nothing more than project fear to come to pass. He may try to engineer such. Hammond has already won the “soft” Brexit war. The B of E under Carney is politicised. It is obvious where his sympathies lie.
September 20, 2017
Off Topic but interesting to see that under the banner of ‘what Labour wants Labour gets’ under Mrs May’s leadership she takes on former communist smpathiser and admirer Olly Robbins. Corbyn will be delighted. And she is apparently intent on appeasing the neo Soviets in the EU by offering them money.
Is our sovereignty and security safe in her hands Mr Redwood? Does she still get your absolute support? Will party come before country again?
September 20, 2017
Mr. Carney has a serious dilemma as a result of predicting immediate economic meltdown for the UK if it voted to leave the EU.
Does he decide to act in the best interests of the UK or to protect his professional reputation for the ability to forecast the UKās economy ?
I was really surprised that Mr. Carney remained as BoE after the EU referendum vote but Mrs. May, Mr. Hammond and Ms. Rudd are all EU supporters.
September 20, 2017
Yes, even Mr Carney’s supporters wondered how he could stay in office after making the most incorrect economic prediction since before the last war.
September 20, 2017
It is said the pool of suitably qualified and experienced people worldwide for Head of any nation’s bank is very shallow and small indeed. Explains much.
September 20, 2017
‘Why should we believe him this time?’
– Because of his track record as governor of the Bank of Canada. Plus he’s worked in banking. He’s highly well educated in economics. And he’s very smart.
‘He has after all made a mess of forecasting the economy for the period after the Brexit vote’
– This fallible economist has got it wrong on the small picture, the short-term. But we’re still in the phoney war stage of Brexit. The big picture is the long-term. We need to judge him on the big picture like he got the big picture right during his governorship of the Bank of Canada.
I’m not much of an expert on Carney, but I believe some don’t like him because he’s basically favours more regulation of the financial markets. Too right, too. We regulate against alcoholics driving cars. So we should regulate against people driving our economy into the ground by a thirst for money (and we all love money, not having a go at anyone, but everyone needs to be regulated, whoever they are).
September 20, 2017
And, yes, regulation is flawed as well. But better try to regulate fairly and sensibly than no or hardly any regulation at all, resulting in anarchy in the markets, like what happened, to a degree, in the crash of 2007 and the recession that followed (something that Carney is an expert on, as he was in the eye of the storm, trying to steer Canada out of it, which he did a really good job in).
(And whilst regulating our financial markets, we also need to develop other services and our high tech manufacturing so that we’re not so dependent on financial services, including the brain drain to the City of London).
September 20, 2017
Carney is out of his depths . If he had blundered once it would be understandable but doing so on so many occasions is another matter .I have always believed he was in the grips of whatever instructions came from the Treasury and felt there was no other way than to toe the line ; I now think otherwise . Certainly he is not the equal to his predecessors and he has not the time left now in his contract to show much else .
The voices from Europe and from the City remainers have got into his system of judgement ; he obviously does not listen to the voices of the majority or to the trends in our economy . The public are now fed up with people who do not see a brighter world for us ; they need inspiration and encouragement to get on with a better life .
September 20, 2017
It’s very simple his lies have caught up with him.
Increasing bank reserves does not improve bank lending he should know that after working in Canada. Banks lend to trustworthy customers end of story. it does not matter how many reserves thay have.
And increasing interest rates weaken a currency just look at the $ since the FED started hiking.
Interest rate hikes are price hikes right across the economy as the extra cost to borrow gets passed on. They fuel inflation and don’t fight it.
Currencies are like bonds, the only difference being they have zero maturity. Everyone seems to understand that when rates go up bond prices go down. Itās an inverse relationship. The discount to par reflects the implied yield and that discount increases as rates go up.
Same with currencies. The spot price of a currency can be considered par. In a rising-rate environment the forward prices of a currency are lower. The market is literally pricing in a lower exchange rate. The degree of discount to par reflects the implied yield. Buy a forward and hold it over time until it converges to spot and you will earn the implied yield.
Gold and commodities exhibit the opposite behavior. They donāt earn. They cost you to hold. There are interest payments and storage costs so the natural ācurveā of gold and commodity markets has a positive slope. (Deferred contracts are priced higher than spot.)
In a rising-rate environment, forward contracts for gold are priced higher. That reflects the ācostā of holding, which equals the interest rate plus storage, etc. Prices rise in a rising-rate environment and they fall in a falling rate environment. As you can see quite clearly since the FED started hiking.
The markets do the opposite and have it all back to front and upside down because Carney and his ilk have convinced everybody that we still use
a) A gold standard
b) Fixed exchange rates
September 20, 2017
According to this recent report HSBC admits that it was wrong about sterling:
http://uk.businessinsider.com/hsbc-reverses-course-on-2017-pound-weakness-2017-9
“Europe’s largest bank by assets reverses direction on the pound and admits being wrong about sterling in 2017.”
“The bank argues that rather than being driven by Brexit developments as expected, cyclical factors have been more important.”
There’s even a chart going back to January 2013 entitled:
“GBP has been a slave to the cycle but political risk can influence it”
with a period of some months after the referendum circled with the comment:
“Political risk grips GBP temporarily”.
I still take this retrospective analysis with a pinch of salt, although with a smaller pinch of salt than for any forecasts, but it does support JR’s arguments here.
As pointed out previously sterling had already embarked on a downwards trend long before the EU referendum, and it seems that the effect of the referendum result was just to give it a downwards jolt; the significance of this is not just academic, given that Brexit is being blamed rising inflation when it was probably due to happen anyway.
September 20, 2017
Off topic. Mark Carney may be a foreign banker with a Green activist family, selected by Osbo as the best in the world, but how did we appoint 74% of the cabinet from keen Remainers, the chief civil servant in charge as an ex-Remainer and banker in charge of Project Fear and the civil servant who was helping David Davis to leave the EUSSR from a background of supporting the USSR against capitalism, while helping Mrs Thatcher. ( see Guido >) Does the PM just ask the civil service who is best placed to do the job?
September 20, 2017
Carney also going to make a right mess of it when they start reducing their balance sheet.
More lies more mess it is getting beyond a joke in this country.
The markets got QE wrong which was just a simple asset swap.
Bonds ——–> Reserves
Everyone screamed there would be hyperinflation and surging interest rates and insolvency and of course none of that happened because it was gold standard thinking.
When they start reducing their balance sheet just another asset swap this time
Reserves ———> Bonds
The markets will react wrong again to the realities.
All anybody wants is the truth of how our monetary system actually operates since we left the gold standard.
I’m 47 and I fear we will never get a governer who tells the truth in my lifetime.
It’s criminal and should be a warning to everyone. Lies always catch up with you in the end no matter how long it takes.
Taxes funding government spending being the biggest lie of all. Since we no longer use the gold standard.
September 21, 2017
Derek Henry: “Everyone screamed there would be hyperinflation and surging interest rates and insolvency and of course none of that happened because it was gold standard thinking.”
Well, there has been very significant inflation. But probably nothing compared to the 9000+% inflation we’ve experienced since the end of the first world war. Compare that to the 3% over the previous one hundred years and it might show the benefit of measuring your currency against some standard.
Derek Henry: “none of that happened” doesn’t mean it won’t happen.
Derek Henry: ” it was gold standard thinking”
1oZ gold in 1955 = Ā£15
1oZ gold in 2015 = ~Ā£945
Same weight of gold, so something else must have changed. I wonder what it could be?
September 20, 2017
There was a feeling in the torments of the British coal mining industry and before that the agony of our car industry that foreigners were brought into manage them so “The British would have someone to blame who was external to themselves “#Sir Ian Kinloch MacGregor, KBE …NCB 1983,# Michael Edwardes …1975.British Leyland. Now we have Mr Carney BoE ongoing. No, we love Americans, South Africans and Canadians. When the time is appropriate which could be last year, this year or next year or not at all, we may or may not find the One. By the way the BoE is being governed just now it could be Neo who has a track record of governing The Matrix
September 20, 2017
It’s hard to make out what the complaint against Carney can be as he is only doing his job- after Nov 2019 it will be someone else in that position. As I expect Mr Carney has a huge team of experts at his back he is hardly conjuring up these figures and forward guidance all by himself- so we should listen to what he has to say instead of always shooting first.
When he talks about a in downturn the economy I’m sure he means more especially after March 2019 when we are out of the EU with no agreement in place going forward? he has to consider all eventualities and to try to see into the future. If he sees danger he is right to point it out. For a long time now there are people in this country ready to unrealistically talk up our hopes for a brighter future outside of the EU- occasionally we need someone like Carney to bring a dose of realism to the situation- even if it sometimes might not be totally correct on all aspects.
September 20, 2017
Carney and the current set of central bankers seem to be real enemies of the people with far too much power .
Let’s not forget that they are unelected . They are chosen and appointed by powers far away from our representatives in Westminster .
Isn’t the globalist plan to get the consumer so hooked on credit that they have them by the short and curlies ?
When the time comes , tbey can hike interest rates so the over extended default and seize their real assets , thus converting increasingly debauched fiat money into tangible assets .
Engineered credit crunches intended to impoverish and dispossess the masses – on rinse and repeat .
The devastating effect on the economy as a whole will just be collateral damage to them .
September 20, 2017
So much for believing experts know how to deal with supply and demand. Time and time again they prove they do not. Yet the left believe that is how our lives and economy should be run. By experts deciding for us when all the evidence points to us being able to do that very well without them and in fact become the problem and have negative influence on solutions.
The influence of experts and there are a multiplicity of them ranging from the pontificating individual to governments, their agencies and organisations of all different hues. That at worst dictate our actions and at best harangue us to conform to their beliefs. The BoE is one of the former and have a disproportionate influence on our lives and so lead us into gargantuan difficulties through error of judgement then flounder about attempting to extricate them and us out of it.
It’s latest pantomime aided and abetted by left wing government has been to create debt, asset bubbles and a mountain of money conjured out of thin air that no expert has a clue as to how to get rid of. In time it will get rid of itself and in doing so it will create a crisis that experts created and then tried to incompetently correct but on a much grander scale than if they had not interfered in the first place.
September 20, 2017
Mr Carney still refusing to admit that much of the pound’s devaluation was due to his knee-jerk reaction to the Brexit vote, rather that the vote itself.
He should be removed from his position without further ado. Doesn’t the Bank have a job that’s more appropriate for someone with his skill set? When did they last do a paperclip count?
September 20, 2017
The establishment has public faces like Carney and Hammond while behind the scenes the same old rubbish is produced by the same old officials. Why bother with these overpaid opinionated troublemakers? Every time they open their mouths the skies fall..
September 20, 2017
Off-topic, if Vince Cable actually got his second EU referendum, or as he is quoted as saying in the last paragraph here:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/vince-cable-lib-dems-speech-leader-not-ukip-reverse-comments-a7955261.html
“a first referendum on the facts”
then I hope he would be able to explain “the facts” on both sides.
He would need to be able to say clearly what would happen if we voted to stay in the EU when we had previously voted to leave the EU, and with the authority of Parliament the government had put in the Article 50 TEU notice that we intended to leave.
It seems the LibDems want us to unthinkingly assume that if we voted to stay in after two years of fraught withdrawal negotiations then the EU would just say:
“Fine, that’s great, there’s actually nothing in Article 50 about a country having the right to revoke its notice once it has been delivered, but we’ve all agreed to let you do that and allow you to stay in on the same terms as before. And if necessary we will square that decision with the EU Parliament and argue for its validity before the ECJ.”
Logically to sustain his “referendum on the facts” line Vince Cable should be arguing for two separate sets of UK-EU negotiations to be conducted in parallel: the first to establish the terms on which we would leave the EU if that is what we voted to do, again, and the second to establish the terms on which we would stay in if that is what we voted for, given that we have already put in the Article 50 TEU withdrawal notice which the Remoaners previously complained would be irrevocable.
September 20, 2017
Incidentally a petition calling for a second referendum has just crossed the 100,000 signature threshold and “Parliament will consider this for a debate”.
Personally I hope that there will be a debate, and soon, and that it will also extend to how Parliament will or will not approve the proposed final deal with the EU given that the government has put in a supposedly irrevocable Article 50 notice.
September 20, 2017
Be fair JR, monetary policies don’t work at or near the 0%, I think the last eight years have proven that. Negative interest rates are a tax on deposits, which the Chancellor could have applied as a “fiscal policy”. Assuming he didn’t want to get elected again. Hence, politicians pass the blame for the state of the economy to the BoE, whenever possible.
I see the Asset Purchase Facility (APF) is now up to Ā£523 billion. That has done its job of pushing up asset prices. That was supposed to make corporate borrowing easier by raising the value of share equity and similar; but the corporates aren’t borrowing to invest, they are stashing the cash from refinancing. It’s the Hand Car Wash syndrome. Why invest in an expensive car wash machine, when you can employ five lads with rags and a bucket of soapy water, on minimum wage or less for cash. And, it does get the unemployment percentage down. Unfortunately, it reduces productivity as well.
People forget that before the current incarnation of the US Federal Reserve, the US went for seventy five years without a central bank and its monetary policies. Monetary policies haven’t increased aggregate consumer demand. Increasing household debt has been more effective, but is very vulnerable to shocks.
Fiscal policy action by the monopoly currency issuing Treasury saved the banks in 2008. There is a clue there on how to save the economy. Sadly, modern politicians are too scared to take responsibility and have little understanding of how to operate a fiat currency economy.
BTW. APF says “All transactions have been financed by the creation of central bank reserves.” Hopefully, you know where “reserves” come from by now. š
September 20, 2017
Is there any truth in reports that Mrs May will offer the EU Ā£20 billion as an exit fee?
September 20, 2017
Mark Carney, along with Sir David Norgrove and Olly Robbins, are only some of the rats in the Brexit grain barrel.
JR, is it any wonder that we doubt Theresa May’s committment to leaving the EU when people like that are left in charge of important aspects of policy execution? Especially as they tend to stray into policy itself. Boris was accused of back seat driving. But he said what he said (ostensibly government policy) because there is no driver.
September 20, 2017
The FT sez Mrs May is going to give the EU 20 bln euros. With a real vote winner like that when are you and your colleagues going to activate the ejector seat?
September 20, 2017
O/T I’ve just been reading the Migration Watch report wanting to give EU citizens special rights after Brexit whereby they can continue to bring in family members for generations and they can all access our public services, no doubt they can bring their elderly relatives for care courtesy of the UK taxpayer.
All the unemployed can come and claim benefits all overseen by the ECJ.
Are the same conditions written into the Canadian (CETA) agreement or South Korea trade agreement.
Didn’t think so……
September 20, 2017
How comforting to know Theresa Mao’s new EU adviser,Oliver Robbins(late of DD’s Brexit Department) is/was such an enthusiast of the Soviet Union(Daily Telegraph).
Will they be singing be Internationale at the end of the Tory party conference this year?!
September 20, 2017
Perhaps interest rates in future should be set by some body independent of the Bank?
September 20, 2017
“If we run out of domestically produced tomatoes we import a lot from somewhere else rather than putting up the price of UK ones.”
Well, it may not be quite that simple once we have left the EU, according to the British Retail Consortium, because unless we get a tariff-free deal shop prices would soar:
https://brc.org.uk/news/2017/brexit-food-prices
“SHOPPERS COULD PAY UP TO A THIRD MORE FOR EVERYDAY FOOD ITEMS IN THE EVENT OF A NO DEAL BREXIT”
“New analysis by the BRC spells out the potential cost to shoppers of leaving the EU without a tariff-free trade deal.”
“Over three quarters of the food that the UK imports comes from the EU and without reaching an agreement on trade, most of these goods will be subject to new tariffs. As a result, the average cost of food imported by retailers from the EU would increase by 22 per cent.”
Well, of course, we are governed by complete idiots and unless there was a trade deal empowering the EU to prevent it they would immediately slap heavy tariffs on all food imports from the EU, while of course keeping the present EU common external tariffs on all food imports from the rest of the world and maybe even increasing them …
I would really like to know why the media unit of the Department for Exiting the European Union does not challenge this kind of rubbish which is pumped out day after day.
It’s now got to the point where my wife is telling me not to watch the TV news or politics programmes because she doesn’t like me swearing at the screen. Day after bloody day it’s a constant diet of anti-Brexit propaganda and apparently David Davis does not care.
September 20, 2017
http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/food-and-drink/brexit-cheese-crisis-uk-leave-eu-burrata-comte-cheddar-mozzarella-manchego-italy-ireland-report-a7957071.html
“Brexit might cause cheese crisis, warns report”
“We donāt want to alarm you, but it may be time to start stockpiling halloumi, mozzarella and brie: The UK could be facing a cheese crisis.
And yes, Brexit is to blame.
A report by the British Retail Consortium warns that we can expect food shortages and rising prices across the board, but itās our beloved cheese boards that may suffer most … “
September 20, 2017
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2017/09/eea-light-migration-and-the-ecj-red-lines-for-mays-speech-in-florence.html
“The Swiss voted in a referendum to limit the free movement of EU workers. The Commission fought back, suspending the countryās participation in the EU research and student programmes, Horizon 2020 and Erasmus Plus. Switzerland backed down. Its story highlights a crucial aspect of the negotiation. For the EU, it is not merely a trade off of āmoney for accessā. It is also one of āimmigration for accessā.”
In other words, the EU’s “four freedoms” are inseparable, as we have been repeatedly informed and as our government has accepted:
https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/the-governments-negotiating-objectives-for-exiting-the-eu-pm-speech
“But I want to be clear. What I am proposing cannot mean membership of the single market.
European leaders have said many times that membership means accepting the ā4 freedomsā of goods, capital, services and people.”
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/604079/Prime_Ministers_letter_to_European_Council_President_Donald_Tusk.pdf
“That is why the United Kingdom does not seek membership of the single market: we understand and respect your position that the four freedoms of the single market are indivisible and there can be no “cherry picking”.”
So the question now is how far Theresa May intends to resile on those statements, along with other earlier statements.
September 20, 2017
[quote]”if UK wages costs start to rise the EU sends us plenty of extra workers to keep the wages down.”[unquote]
Sorry Mr Redwood, but that practice will now have to stop. We don’t want immigration at all, other than in the ordinary sense of tourism, diplomacy and natural interchange. Importing labour can only lead to low wages.
If the price theories that underpin free market economics are correct, then let the national market decide the wage level. If British goods are too expensive, then the same goods can be imported and consumers can decide at the shops and supermarkets, can’t they.
If wages are too high, then you can start by abolishing the welfare state and reverting back to the original system of social security, which was envisaged in the Beveridge Report. It was meant to address degraded social conditions and cure idleness, not subsidise poverty and support idleness. If people know there is only a minimal safety net AND there are jobs available, then they will work for reasonable wages.
I expect this will now be one of the next battles after Brexit – we will be fighting people like you, on the Right, who want to turn Britain into a European version of Singapore, reliant on imported labour; we will also be fighting the Left, who want to keep the welfare state, even though it sustains poverty and dependency.
September 20, 2017
One wonders – if he is hopeless at his job then why is he still in post.
September 20, 2017
Well because May and Hammond are too daft to realise this – or are just too cowardly to do anything about it?
September 20, 2017
Well because May and Hammond are too daft to realise this ā or are just too cowardly to do anything about it?
>
Strangely enough, top politicians are prepared to look daft and incompetent if that is what it takes to push through their sinister deceptive agenda.
September 20, 2017
When will the EU supporting British Civil Servant be held to account for their political interventions prior to, during and following the EU referendum
Come on John, articles about Carney and interest rates are irrelevant. we need to expose anti-EU forces at the heart of the British political establishment starting with Hammond, Heywood and Norgrove
When will anti-EU Tory MP’s starting naming names and exposing these so called impartial public servants?
September 20, 2017
A pity we didn’t join the euro. We would all have been better off.
September 20, 2017
Ha ha. So without all the billions of QE the BoE wouldn’t have been able to do if we were in the Euro you think we’d be in a better position than Greece, Italy and Spain with 50% youth unemployment and insolvent banks ? How so ? Your analysis is based on the current exchange rate only ? Ha ha.
September 20, 2017
Yes Alan, we would have been so better off if we had been locked into the deflationary euro during a deep depression (like Greece recently or when we had the 1992 recession and self imposed stupidity in shadowing the DM and forcing huge interest rates on the economy) where we would not have been able to finance government spending and we would be facing huge cuts in wages and pensions and with a massive current account deficit and huge inbalance in trade vis a vis imports/exports….. Yeah, it would have been wonderful…NOT!
Unless, of course, you trading in irony!
zorro
September 20, 2017
Thanks for that, you just made me splutter my tea all over the lounge floor!
September 20, 2017
But none of you can get round the fact that the pound has decreased in value compared to the euro.
And it’s likely to go on.
Reply As it did when we were in the EU, at a time when the Euro was also rising against the dollar
September 21, 2017
Completely clueless – currencies fluctuate in a market economy where they are traded. Lots of different factors can influence relevant pricings of currencies relative to others including import/export factors/monetary and fiscal policy/debt and deficits/interest rate policy not just “Brexit”….
Do you realise that we have had several deep recessions whilst in the holy and sainted EU which would have been catastrophic for us if we had been in the currency union? You act as if it is some tralisman and that if only we are in the EU everything will be hunky dory for ever and ever. Please try and get a grip on economic reality and our relative economic performance whilst shackled to the EU.
zorro
September 20, 2017
I much preferred Mervyn King. At least the pound didn’t nose dive every time he spoke. But then he wasn’t talking the country down all the time.
September 20, 2017
George Galloway said of Tony Blair, that his appointment as Middle-East peace envoy was the most inappropriate appointment since Caligula appointed his horse to the Council of Rome. I agreed with GG, but studying the CV of the present Governor of the Bank of England, and his decisions to date, dear old Caligula might have a serious competitor!
Tad Davison
Cambridge
September 20, 2017
Predictions may be right or wrong.
Action by Central Bank is data dependent i.e based on actual outcomes
September 20, 2017
So if it’s data dependent then why do they have to vote on it ?
September 20, 2017
Mr Carney explained to a Parliamentary committee televised on BBC Parliament that he and the BoE make decisions based on hard data and soft data. The data on which he has been making decisions about interest rates and post Brexit activity by the BoE were based as he put it on “Soft Data” alone as you cannot make predictions on past data ( It says that on most investment stuff…”past performance is not a guide to future performance” ) and explained that Soft Data is say he having a phone call with a business person and what that person sees happening to the company in the future. I have an uncle who swears by Tarot cards but he as yet does not advise Mr Carney.
September 20, 2017
Carney is not very good, but he can’t raise interest rates because the UK borrowing costs would now become very burdensome thanks to all that debt which has been run up over the last decade. When rates do eventually get forced up by the market, the UK will be forced to restructure its debt – unless a large amount of that debt has been ‘inflated away’ in the interim.
Meanwhile our PM is apparently preparing to offer the EU another 20BN Euros to extend our stay in the EU by another 2 years. I never voted for that – which part of ‘Out’ does she not understand?
September 20, 2017
Interestingly a CBI survey shows that 9 ex 10 of businesses believe London is still their top choice for business despite Brexit. The CBI famously came out for Remain losing JCB in the process and still cannot bring themselves to reflect their members’ views albeit now going as far as only railing against a hard exit.
The .CBI/Carney/Hammond/Rudd etc seemed to be infected by the same fungus. Presumably the spores are being blown over the channel.
Yesterday I treated my fruit trees, probably way too late. Is there a spray we could find to eliminate the EC infestation?
September 20, 2017
Mr Carney was not elected. Persons elected looked at his job application, appointed him, and if he is not the ideal employee as seen by others, is it his fault?
Mr Osborne now sells daily throw-away chip papers. No doubt he would defect to the Eastern Bloc if it were still in existence, which ,would recognise his virtues ( if any ) as a matter of course. Mr Carney is working!
Let’s not blame Carney for the behaviour of traitors and others not necessarily members of the LibDems. Eventually they will retire to a place in Spain where the countryside is ONLY appreciated by wearing welding goggles
September 20, 2017
Are we being softened up for a Ā£20billion gift to the EU? That seems to be the speculation. Followed by further speculation that this will be rejected out of hand.
If yes, then that is not what I expected when I cast my vote to leave.
We are going about this the wrong way. We need to sort the trade terms first.
Then we pay what we actually owe afterwards.
I would prefer to bring down May and force another general election rather than give in over this.
September 20, 2017
To pay anything to the EU would clearly be a big mistake. To do so in advance would be even more idiotic. This as you just weaken your bargaining position and strengthen theirs with any payment you make.
September 20, 2017
Agreed, with her successor standing on “does democracy matter” platform.
September 20, 2017
A committed Brexiteer should be at the helm. The very fact that May has allowed all these rumours, stories, and events to develop, fuelling even more uncertainty and concern, speaks volumes about her ability to lead and ultimately to effect Brexit. It seems as though she is appeasing Hammond et al, and thereby fudging Brexit. If she does that the Conservative government will be out.
September 20, 2017
Perhaps what is needed here is a good old civil war.
It looks like the power is for remain and the populous is for leave.
Get your pikes and staffs (strimmers and hedge clippers and follow me to the Houses of Parliament!)
September 20, 2017
Showing some preparation for a post EU Britain and that we’re serious about it would gain us some respect in negotiations.
As things are it doesn’t seem like we’re leaving.
September 20, 2017
I share your pain. Everything Mr Redwood promised – easy trade deals, the EU caving in cos they need us more than we need them – is not true.
September 20, 2017
Lawton, You don’t share my pain. I have consistently stated on this site and elsewhere for at least 4 years that if you think the EU will be fair to us on exit then you’ve not been paying attention for the last 45 years. That is why I have repeatedly advocated 12 months diplomatic notice and WTO trade rules; and not to invoke Art50.
September 20, 2017
What a stroke of brilliance from TM…..
TM – Hi EU, I know that you are being totally obstructive and refusing to negotiate with us, and demanding money with menaces. How about we give you Ā£20bn and would you be nice enough to bargain with us now? I know that we have an Ā£80bn trade inbalance with you and you should be paying for access to our market, but we don’t want to charge you…. So, if we pay you as a favour, will you talk with us, pretty please….
EU response – sure as long as you pay the settlement fee first and up the payment to what we ask….
TM – Oh, OK let me dither about it a bit more, say 9 more months….
Have we really come to this? How really unbelievably weak, vacuous and stupid can someone be?
zorro
September 20, 2017
My only hope is that the EU reject this, and finally people smell the coffee and realise that the EU is an enemy power which wants to do us harm!
zorro
September 20, 2017
Peter,
I think Boris was right…a shot across the PM’s bows at this stage. People will not forgive or forget this kind of treachery from Mrs May & Mr Hammond.
If the BBC’s favourite political journalist is right and Mrs May offers the EU 30Billion Euros to start trade talks, they will accept that as an initial down payment, but don’t ever imagine that this will be the final bill.
At this stage of negotiations to show weakness is surly a failed ploy.
September 20, 2017
Even “surely”… š
September 20, 2017
It would help if the Cabinet would recognise the result of the EU referendum and what that meant. At the present time most of them including the Chancellor and his lap dog are working for the corporate elites.
Very disappointing.
September 20, 2017
Letās wait for fridays speech and any fallout. The difficulty your position has is that May and co.s hubris calling another election has weskened her to the extent that if you do go for the nuclear option, it is likely you will get Corbyn and no meaningful Brexit at all.
That election was as close to political suicude as you can get.
September 20, 2017
Strange sort of logic going on here..when some tory right wing types think the governor is not on their side by talking everything up like JR IDS Fox Boris and Gove etc then the call goes out to have him sacked for not being British enough..indeed a strange sort of logic.. and according to the comments above there are others still in cloud cuckoo land who think we are going to get away without paying up for our commitments already made and then that the EU will agree to this and then extend a new trade deal with the other hand based on cherry picking..like a la carte..more strange logic
September 20, 2017
Not seriously considering tariff free trade can be likened to financial sanctions: not overtly stated.
September 20, 2017
Old news. Bank of England fails – again – to rig the interest rate.
Central Banks. Are a large part of the problem. They are not even close to being the solution.
September 20, 2017
I’ll repeat a question I’ve asked many times before: “Why is Governor Carney still in office?” Why have not the many EuroSceptics on the Conservative (and other) back benches moved a motion in the Commons to have him sacked? If we want to level things up between the just-about-managing and the rich, higher interest rates and lower house prices will best do the job and are essential.
As for the retired elderly like myself, you can remove ALL of our perks if you just deliver rock steady prices. We haven’t had a Treasury team capable of delivering good fiscal and monetary policy since Messrs Thorneycroft, Powell and Birch resigned at Epiphany 1958.
Let’s end the ‘independence’ of the Bank of England over monetary policy, which is phoney. As Enoch said “Power devolved is power retained.” The Treasury cannot pass the buck.
September 20, 2017
What we have here is old fashioned character assassination sponsored by JR and carried out by his followers. For information Carney was appointed to this job as governor BoE by a british expert panel..he doesn’t deserve daily sniping at by the mob..in any case his contract will be up in Nov 2019 and from what i can see he will not delay departure from this country one minute longer than necessary..i’d say working here has been an eye opener for him and like the rest of us he surely has had enough of english whinge.
We should instead save our rage for those who talked us into this awful mess, Boris Gove, Fox etc, and JR “taking back control” the seriousness of which will become very clear over the next few weeks..when we discuss the divorce cost, the irish border and the other one..about the migration of EU and UK people. For if these things are not resolved to the EU’s satisfaction then there will certainly be no moving on to talk about the future ..the clock is ticking
September 21, 2017
“For if these things are not resolved to the EUās satisfaction then […]”
Did you see what you did there – you got the chariot in front of the horses.
September 20, 2017
Mr Carney is like the GP who to maintain an easy life administers tranks to addicts, in his case [Mr Carney] he floods the country with easy money aka QE and lax monetary stimuli ie ultra low interest rates and the addict gets so bad [domestic consumer] he, she, it just cannot come of the drugs.
Mr Carney is stuck in a loop and cannot exit this vicious circle of his and others making, he knows going cold turkey could nigh kill the patient [UK economy] and therefore is addicted himself to ‘no change’ repeat prescriptions.
With the executive dedicated to profligacy and spending money we don’t have, it’s not clear that the patient [Britain] will ever be allowed to enter into rehab and maybe thus, at some point actually begin to recover properly and as the National debt canters towards Ā£1.7 trillions, that’s if you believe the OBR figures, where some economists put the National Debt at as much as Ā£7 Tr…………mental.
And ooh look, UK fuel and energy costs are some of the highest in the world – I wonder why? Hmm, could it be the unilateral suicide note aka the 2008 CC ACT? and what deleterious effects it has on manufacturing and businesses.
Plus not least, another asset bubble is bloating out of control, this time the banks will have to go to the wall. Inevitably, kicking the can down the road just stores up a greater catastrophe when it occurs, because the UK economy and Mr. Carney – cannot defy the gravity of world market forces forever.
September 21, 2017
Commentators were critical of Mervyn King during his tenure on account he failed to get his (their) forecasts remotely correct. We have been in the same situation with Carney for a year or two now! Why don’t they just invite him along to the next treasury comm session and let JRM take him to the cleaners again?
September 22, 2017
The Fed says it is keeping interest rates steady and there could be a rise in December. My guess is that Mr Carney will give a speech very soon lasting the best part of one hour and after repeated questions for clarity from the BBC journalists he will say “Well, I believe I may leave interests rates as they are, until say Christmastime and then will consider a possible rise as it could be but may not be necessary”. Canadians go for a hike round the mountains and forests more than American s do.