No cliff edge

I have now read through all the submissions about what we need to prepare to have a smooth Brexit with No Deal.

Most of the worries are ones which have been argued over and discussed endlessly. In many cases I dealt with these worries on this blog before the referendum. Most are general in nature.

I will summarise my response to these old issues below:

What will happen about passported products in financial services?

The most common is the UCIT Investment fund. As these are all registered companies in countries that will remain EU members there is no problem. The UK will retain the contracts to help manage them, whilst the funds will continue to be available throughout the EU. The UK will be happy to allow UK nationals to continue to buy and hold these funds. Other  passported products resident in the UK will be able  to continue under  the  doctrine of regulatory equivalence.

 

What happens about the future of the City if there is No Deal?

We will be able to trade as do other non EU members, using the doctrine of equivalence and world trade rules.

Will derivative contracts still work?

They should. The market has plenty of advance warning of our departure on 29 March 2019. Markets adjusted easily and rapidly to the abolition of the DM and the introduction of the Euro in 2000 which was  bigger set of changes. As the markets start to offer contracts that go beyond exit date they will reflect this in the contract small print.

Will there be more red tape to export?

No Deal will entail customs filings for tariff based goods for No Deal. This can be an additional line in an electronic filing. Importers and exporters already need paperwork or electronic files to handle product specs, safety and a wide range of compliance maters, which can remain the same.

How can there be a smooth Irish  border?

The UK government has issued a paper on this setting out how. If the EU does not like the UK proposal it needs to make a counter proposal, as its member state the Republic of Ireland is keen on a smooth border continuing ,as is the UK.

 

Will universities suffer?

No. The government has  made clear there will be plenty of visas for students and faculty members coming from the eu as there are today for non EU. E U funding will be replaced by UK money. The UK may negotiate to continue to contribute to and belong to various European schemes.

 

Will we reassert our territorial limits and set out a UK fishing policy

That is the current plan

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205 Comments

  1. Nerwmania
    Posted October 3, 2017 at 5:19 am | Permalink

    Other passported products resident in the UK will be able to continue under the doctrine of regulatory equivalence.

    That is complete nonsense. Passporting , of insurance will stop any Policy being issued either UK to EU or visa versa ( onshore) unless some agreement is come to continue , either mutual recognition, of capital or more passporting.
    There is no sign of such an agreement .The CEO of German Insurance Company I spoke to this week , is not aware of it , nor are the teams trying to find a way for Lloyds to retain a presence in the EU, we have no idea iuf anyone is even trying to reach such an agreement
    It is not compliance it is MONEY …yeeeesh , I have better informed conversations with my children.

    You are fatally confusing some guff sourced from the internet by retired volk with reality. That is not a mistake we can afford to make

    • Edward2
      Posted October 3, 2017 at 6:18 am | Permalink

      “There is no sign of an agreement”…..well yes because the EU are refusing to talk about trade matters until the UK pays a leaving fine of many billions.

      • Denis Cooper
        Posted October 3, 2017 at 10:21 am | Permalink

        Oh, but it seems that legally they cannot make any agreement about trade matters until we have left the EU. In fact maybe they cannot even talk about trade … they can talk about the terms on which we will leave the EU before we have left the EU, but only provided those talks do not include anything about the most economically important matters relating to trade. That is the logic, or perhaps lack of logic, which our government has accepted because they want to stay friends with the EU and not cause a scene.

        https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pms-florence-speech-a-new-era-of-cooperation-and-partnership-between-the-uk-and-the-eu

        “Neither is the European Union legally able to conclude an agreement with the UK as an external partner while it is itself still part of the European Union.”

        • rose
          Posted October 6, 2017 at 12:32 am | Permalink

          To be fair, I thought DD said he went along with the nonsense to begin with to get agreement on reciprocal rights but now the nonsense had to stop. Hence the impasse which TM has caved in over.

          You could also mention the insistence on settling the N Irish border before we know what the trade arrangements are. It can’t be done. This looks as if it were thought up to 1) break up the UK in spite and 2) obstruct the talks on trade.

    • Roy Grainger
      Posted October 3, 2017 at 7:43 am | Permalink

      Why do you Remainers always feel it is necessary to insult anyone who doesn’t agree with you ? I would reprimand MY children if they did that.

      • Newmania
        Posted October 3, 2017 at 11:23 am | Permalink

        It is not a question of “Do not agree” this is not a debate it is a fact and I am not the one claiming to have solved the problem thousands of professionals are pulling their hair out about .

        No-one has any idea what is coming but the assumption is we are getting no help and has been for a long time.

        On the Irish border again Redders has a magic border which is open and yet shut by the wizardy of ..god knows what ( it has already been admitted that this is fantasy by the way ) . So what happens when contraband goods arrive in the UK and a competitor takes the UK to court for failing in its duty to check said border ?

        • Edward2
          Posted October 4, 2017 at 6:51 am | Permalink

          Contraband goods arrive now whist we are in the EU.

          • rose
            Posted October 6, 2017 at 12:36 am | Permalink

            And there needn’t be contraband in the sense Newmania is thinking of if the EU were not so vindictive – i.e. if they agreed to free trade, as article 8 of the Lisbon Treaty suggests they should. Moreover, Frau Merkel and Guy Verhofstadt are always saying they are free traders, unlike the evil Trump.

      • Bob
        Posted October 3, 2017 at 5:25 pm | Permalink

        agree Roy.
        Trying to have a civil discussion with them is like trying to reason with cult members. They can become quite hysterical and abusive when presented with facts that challenge their rhetoric.

    • Anonymous
      Posted October 3, 2017 at 3:26 pm | Permalink

      Perhaps you could do a detailed post, Newmania.

      I’ve never doubted the sincerity of your concerns, just the manner in which you express them.

      The rubbing of noses in it and the haughtiness towards fellow countrymen is what caused the demand for a referendum and Brexit.

      There had to be consequences.

      Here they are.

    • zorro
      Posted October 3, 2017 at 6:51 pm | Permalink

      I will give a realistic assessment of your contributions to the blog. They display a rudeness, arrogance and ignorance which lays your true mettle on view to the world.You don’t listen. You don’t like or respect people who voted leave. For your own benefit, it doesn’t really matter what you think now. We are leaving the yoke of the European Union. Would you hazard a guess at what we think of you? 🙂

      Mucho gusto
      zorro

  2. margaret
    Posted October 3, 2017 at 5:23 am | Permalink

    Are we recognised by the EMIR process? Regulatory equivalence is a relatively new rule as I read.

    • Tabulazero
      Posted October 3, 2017 at 7:35 am | Permalink

      It can also be withdrawn at any time… which means that equivalence is not a solid enough framework for it to work.

      For example, do you really want to take an multi-year insurance product from a British company knowing that at any time your contract could be declared void ?…

      No.

      Hence it will put British companies at a massive disadvantage.

      • Edward2
        Posted October 3, 2017 at 1:08 pm | Permalink

        You are suggesting the EU will deliberately and retrospectively void legal insurance contracts?
        They would be ruining their world wide reputation for decency and honesty in trade and in honouring contracts.
        Apart from breaching UN and WTO rules on international trade

        • Tabulazero
          Posted October 4, 2017 at 6:36 am | Permalink

          Threats will be enough.

          Also, the insurance business is pretty regulated at the national level and for good reason. Good luck raising a case with the WTO.

          And as the UK has been reminded with Bombardier, the WTO is not the deterent one may think.

          • Edward2
            Posted October 4, 2017 at 5:15 pm | Permalink

            Yes the EU is good at threats.
            Not that threats get them anywhere.
            It will be interesting to see if the EU can get between sellers and buyers worldwide given current web based trading.
            The EU has agreed to WTO rules too.
            If they act illegally sanctions and fines can be applied.
            But it is the damage to reputation that is the greater effect..
            PS
            You reference to the Canadian v USA trade dispute is in very early legal stages.
            In a year or two a deal will happen.

      • a-tracy
        Posted October 4, 2017 at 1:47 pm | Permalink

        Your race to the bottom Tabulazero would be a certain error by the EU, we do not take kindly as a people to unfair play, bullying and intimidation but carry on even remain voters I know are getting annoyed with these threats now.

        • Tabulazero
          Posted October 4, 2017 at 4:42 pm | Permalink

          a-tracy: annoyed or not, these are simple consequences of your decision.

          Did you genuinely expect that the EU would kindly roll on its back and give the UK all that what promised by your Brexit politicians ?

          Junker, Barnier and the rest of the EU just fight for its corner as it has always done for the past 40 years. Nothing new, here.

          • a-tracy
            Posted October 5, 2017 at 11:08 am | Permalink

            No, not at all, I’m pleased they’re showing their true colours.

  3. Peter VAN LEEUWEN
    Posted October 3, 2017 at 5:28 am | Permalink

    I don’t really agree with the remarks on Ireland. As the breaking partner the onus is on the UK to prove that a borderless Ireland can be provided which would work after any kind of Brexit. Taoiseach Leo Varadkar has been absolutely clear about that. Otherwise, Britain could make some sloppy proposal and leave it at that. (I’m not suggesting it has done so already)

    Off-topic: As there is no fog in the Channel today, shouldn’t the EU at least have been blamed for the carnage in Las Vegas?? After all these weapon exports to the US??
    It is vital to keep up the anti-EU rhetoric during these glorious preparations for March 2019! 🙂

    • Edward2
      Posted October 3, 2017 at 6:20 am | Permalink

      The UK has laid out how the border could work.
      The EU has not responded.

      You remarks about Las Vegas are not funny nor satirical in the least.

      • Peter VAN LEEUWEN
        Posted October 3, 2017 at 10:23 pm | Permalink

        @Edward2:
        Maybe you prefer the kind of comments your top politicians make about Sirte becoming a Dubai?
        My point is that always blaming the EU for anything and everything may be remembered and stand in the way, when the UK in future may have a need for a friendly relationship with the continent.

        • Edward2
          Posted October 4, 2017 at 6:57 am | Permalink

          No I don’t prefer those comments any more than yours Peter.
          The EU deserves criticism as it needs urgent reform and a far more responsive democratic structure.
          It is not listening to its people.
          That is why I am pleased we are become independent once more.
          I love Europe but the EU is very different.

    • matthu
      Posted October 3, 2017 at 6:34 am | Permalink

      Try focusing on Catalonia.

    • Chris S
      Posted October 3, 2017 at 7:41 am | Permalink

      The best method of resolving the Irish border issue would be the obvious one : Leave it to Eire and the UK to sort out between us.

      Unfortunately Brussels is NEVER prepared to allow any member state (other than Germany, obviously ) to dictate terms on anything so whatever emerges will take longer and will not be the best solution.

      Peter, your off-topic paragraph is beneath you.

    • Roy Grainger
      Posted October 3, 2017 at 7:44 am | Permalink

      Flippant comments about Las Vegas do you no credit.

    • Know-Dice
      Posted October 3, 2017 at 7:55 am | Permalink

      PvL,

      I had a few very pleasant days in Bussum and Amsterdam last week 🙂

      The Dutch people were as friendly as ever, I’m sure that will continue after March 2019.

      Just bear in mind – Leaving the EU not leaving Europe…. 🙂

      • Peter VAN LEEUWEN
        Posted October 3, 2017 at 9:54 am | Permalink

        @Know-Dice: no reason not to be very friendly to British people. Enjoy it while the travelling is still easy and no ETIAS charge is levied.

        • Mark B
          Posted October 3, 2017 at 12:24 pm | Permalink

          And vice versa 😉

        • Timaction
          Posted October 3, 2017 at 5:01 pm | Permalink

          That applies both ways, as does tariffs on goods. With £80 billion trade deficit I wonder who will benefit most if we need to go to WTO rules?
          We are not paying for your project anymore pvl or to trade. Trade and friendship. Cooperation on security and defence. Nothing more whilst you construct your Franco German dominated United States of Europe!
          Get used to being told what to do. Remind me how the Dutch referendum on Ukriane’s movement of people went?

        • zorro
          Posted October 3, 2017 at 6:54 pm | Permalink

          Grow up

          zorro

        • fedupsoutherner
          Posted October 4, 2017 at 8:24 am | Permalink

          PVL

          Prefer the USA/Oz/NZ/Canada any day.

    • a-tracy
      Posted October 3, 2017 at 8:40 am | Permalink

      Your Off-topic is a strange one, when has JR or any poster here blamed the EU for weapon exports?

      • Ian Wragg
        Posted October 3, 2017 at 9:07 am | Permalink

        In years to come what happened in Catalonia may become the norm when Brussels get their own rapid response force.
        Brutality will be required to prevent the same demise as the Soviet Union.

        • Know-Dice
          Posted October 3, 2017 at 11:34 am | Permalink

          What you mean?

          Like the Dutch brigades under the command of the Bundeswehr…oops

      • Leslie Singleton
        Posted October 3, 2017 at 9:30 am | Permalink

        Dear Tracy–Yes, a very odd comment. It is not so much blame as simply wanting nothing to do with the EU, combined with heartfelt relief that we are leaving (different from “breaking”). The cliff edge guff is getting tedious. What is far more apt is getting to the next valley (Yes , in Pasadena, where grass is greener). Nobody, least of all me (indeed I have said the opposite here a number of times), thinks anything other than surmounting the mountain or watershed in between is going to have its challenges and difficulties. There cannot be many, however, who think these challenges are going to defeat us. In perhaps five years it is all going to seem, looking back, like a bad dream.

    • Andy
      Posted October 3, 2017 at 10:27 am | Permalink

      As it is an EU external border it is for you to police, just as what will be an external UK border is ours. The UK has made a proposal which, like everything else, the arrogant EU has rejected and not made any proposal of its own. Fine. We will do what we wish on our own border.

      • Dennis Zoff
        Posted October 3, 2017 at 11:36 am | Permalink

        Absolutely correct.

        The UK and Ireland will continue to co-operate, as always, why would they not?

        This is simply the EU trying, derisory meddling, to drive a wedge between two kindred countries for their own mendacious agenda!

      • zorro
        Posted October 3, 2017 at 6:57 pm | Permalink

        The EU is all talk and no trousers. As you say, the EU will say there must be a hard border. We will say we are not imposing it, and the Irish will tell them to foxtrot oscar 🙂

        zorro

    • Paul H
      Posted October 3, 2017 at 9:49 pm | Permalink

      Nonsense. Under A.50, there is no more (and no less) onus on the departing party than on the EU and the EU27.

      And your comment on Las Vegas is disgraceful.

      • Denis Cooper
        Posted October 4, 2017 at 8:18 am | Permalink

        Correct on both counts.

  4. Mark B
    Posted October 3, 2017 at 5:33 am | Permalink

    Will we reassert our territorial limits and set out a UK fishing policy

    That is the current plan

    That does not sound very good to me. The fisherman and their communities were the first to suffer, it is only right therefore, that they be the amongst the first to benefit from BREXIT. Nothing but a clear statement containing that this is very much a red-line for the UK will suffice. I do not come from a fishing community or have any interests in it, but these people, ‘our people’ have been wronged.

    Happy for the UK to issue licenses under international agreements to foreign boats, but those waters and all that they contain are ours ! They may catch fish there, but they land in our ports !

    • Mark B
      Posted October 3, 2017 at 5:33 am | Permalink

      Oops !

      Good morning 🙂

      • acorn
        Posted October 3, 2017 at 4:54 pm | Permalink

        As this site appears globally, have you considered downloading a world time clock? My colleagues in Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia; are continually having a chuckle about your “little Englander” good morning tribute.

        • fedupsoutherner
          Posted October 4, 2017 at 8:22 am | Permalink

          Acorn

          Let them chuckle but they are just as protective over their sovereign nation in Australia as we are here. They have strict immigration laws too! Chuckle on – we couldn’t care less.

        • libertarian
          Posted October 4, 2017 at 1:54 pm | Permalink

          acorn

          as this blog is written by a British MP about Britain, its your overseas friends who need to acquaint themselves with the time difference not us. Quite frankly your posts are becoming more bizarre and childlike by the day

          • acorn
            Posted October 4, 2017 at 5:43 pm | Permalink

            It is your pompous; arrogant; ignorant attitude, that has got us where we are today in negotiations with the EU. But, it is an excellent strategy for a definite “no deal” Brexit; which is why your comments pass moderation on this site.

        • Mark B
          Posted October 4, 2017 at 5:33 pm | Permalink

          Acorn

          Many thanks.

          Two things you should know about me :

          1) I am below average height.

          2) I am English

          The first of those I do not care about and the second I very much care about, as you and your friends must surely know.

          And as I write this, may I extend, a a jolly good evening.

          🙂

          • a-tracy
            Posted October 5, 2017 at 11:10 am | Permalink

            laughed out loud

    • Tabulazero
      Posted October 3, 2017 at 7:31 am | Permalink

      Knowing that British fishermen export 75% of their catch to the EU, the chances of this happening are nill.

      Fish you cannot sell is not a very useful commodity.

      • Andy
        Posted October 3, 2017 at 10:29 am | Permalink

        Well the people of the EU will have to get use to not eating fish. But the up side of this is that it will do wonders for fish stocks and I can see in 10 years there being a huge abundance of fish in our waters.

        • Tabulazero
          Posted October 3, 2017 at 5:40 pm | Permalink

          Have you heard of a country called Spain and its rather large fishing fleet ?

          Probably not but rest assured that the Spanish fishermen would like to thank you for your nice contribution to their bottom-line.

          • libertarian
            Posted October 4, 2017 at 1:55 pm | Permalink

            Tabulazero

            Where does the large Spanish fishing fleet fish?

      • Denis Cooper
        Posted October 3, 2017 at 10:31 am | Permalink

        What gives you the idea that British fishermen export 75% of their catch to the EU? For crying out loud, the UK is a net importer of fish. Yes, the EU member state with the richest fishing grounds is a net importer of fish.

        http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/SN02788#fullreport

        • acorn
          Posted October 3, 2017 at 11:18 am | Permalink

          The British don’t eat the fish that are caught in British waters. The fish we do eat are imported from Iceland; Denmark and processed fish from China.

          • Denis Cooper
            Posted October 4, 2017 at 8:21 am | Permalink

            The UK is now a NET importer of fish, acorn, which was not the case in 1983 according to Chart 7 in that report.

        • Ian Wragg
          Posted October 3, 2017 at 1:53 pm | Permalink

          I see France gets 8 times the Cod and Haddock quota than we get from our own waters.
          Just been watching the limp EU Parliament debating the lack of progress on the 3 key issues of Brexit.
          Translated it means we won’t give billions of £ divorce fee, we won’t allow the ECJ to continue interfering in UK laws and they don’t accept our very practical offer on the Irish border.
          These aren’t negotiations they are a list of demands by Brussels.
          Walk away now.

          • acorn
            Posted October 4, 2017 at 8:07 am | Permalink

            Remember the EU parliament can veto any Brexit deal.

            BTW. Did you notice that a “show of hands” vote takes 5 (five) seconds. A “role call” electronic vote takes 10 seconds

            The UK’s two centuries out of date, self serving House of Commons, takes 20 minutes for a “role call” vote; and, you can’t vote sitting down.

      • libertarian
        Posted October 3, 2017 at 3:39 pm | Permalink

        Tabulazero

        I love it when remainers exhibit their total lack of knowledge

        75% exported to EU …… lol

        • acorn
          Posted October 3, 2017 at 4:12 pm | Permalink
          • libertarian
            Posted October 4, 2017 at 1:58 pm | Permalink

            acorn

            85% of exports IS NOT THE SAME as 85% of the catch

        • Tabulazero
          Posted October 3, 2017 at 5:52 pm | Permalink
          • Denis Cooper
            Posted October 4, 2017 at 7:53 am | Permalink

            But not exported to the EU.

          • libertarian
            Posted October 4, 2017 at 2:05 pm | Permalink

            Tabulazero

            READ IT YOURSELF numpty

            WE DO NOT export 75% of catch to the EU .. It even says that in the report you’ve linked us too.

            The figure was 66% mostly mackerel is exported to EU whilst we import tuna and prawns

            As a complete ignoramus on business and trade you should ask yourself why if the EU wants so much of our mackerel now they wouldn’t want it once we’ve left. Why are remainers so ignorant about trade?

            Governments dont trade, buyers and sellers trade

        • Diogenes
          Posted October 4, 2017 at 1:40 pm | Permalink

          Lol from the incredibly funny Libby who does not have a clue about what is being fished in UK waters by British fishermen, what fish is exported and imported, and what fish is actually eaten by the British public. OMG, OMG.
          But that’s fine, not everybody can have knowledge on everything and always make intelligent comment. Only our kind host can do that, or can he?

      • John
        Posted October 3, 2017 at 5:06 pm | Permalink

        Broadly the UK eat about the same tonnage of seafood that is fished out of UK waters, 80 – 90% of which is by the EU continent (is that were you get your export number from)

        We have some different tastes so some would be exported and some still imported as we currently do from Philippines and Malaysia. I would prefer to eat fresh Scottish langoustines than frozen king prawns from the Philippines.

      • zorro
        Posted October 3, 2017 at 7:01 pm | Permalink

        I love fish – more for me 🙂

        zorro

        • Tabulazero
          Posted October 4, 2017 at 4:43 pm | Permalink

          Plenty of cod coming your way then…

    • David Price
      Posted October 3, 2017 at 7:43 am | Permalink

      I agree. For me the treatment of our fishing communities and resources is a touchstone of the government’s intent. Either the government represents our people and our interests or they don’t and if they don’t then they will need to be very careful as they won’t be able to hide behind the EU.

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted October 3, 2017 at 3:35 pm | Permalink

      Just look at this blasted cheek:

      https://www.ft.com/content/958c7e28-0f1c-11e7-b030-768954394623?mhq5j=e5

      “EU fishing fleet urges post-Brexit access to UK seas”

      “The EU is widely perceived to have more to lose from an unfavourable deal than the UK. Trawlers in small European fishing towns catch more than half of their fish in UK waters, and the alliance estimated that across all countries, profits for fishermen will fall by 50 per cent in the short term if UK waters are restricted. 

      “The UK has the stronger position, but is that really how you want to leave the EU? By blackmailing us on the way out?” asked Mr Van der Veen.”

      So it’s fine for them to blackmail us, but not the other way round.

      • zorro
        Posted October 3, 2017 at 7:03 pm | Permalink

        Clearly a stranger to irony this Dutchman!

        zorro

    • Know-Dice
      Posted October 3, 2017 at 4:17 pm | Permalink

      Also, any licence issued to a fishing company must be used by that company or returned.

      They should be not allowed to sell on licences especially to non UK companies…

  5. Tasman
    Posted October 3, 2017 at 5:37 am | Permalink

    You write: “What happens about the future of the City if there is No Deal? …. We will be able to trade as do other non EU members, using the doctrine of equivalence and world trade rules”.

    What nonsense is this, man? The “doctrine of equivalence” – what in God’s name is that? This is pure gibberish, Mr Redwood. You simply do not have a viable plan.

    • Edward2
      Posted October 3, 2017 at 6:23 am | Permalink

      How do many nations trade happily with Europe currently then Tasman?

      • Ian Wragg
        Posted October 3, 2017 at 9:10 am | Permalink

        According to Remainiacs only the UK will be barred from trading with the EU.
        We will have to accept pariah status much like North Korea.
        Leaving the EU makes us a rogue state.

    • libertarian
      Posted October 3, 2017 at 3:44 pm | Permalink

      Tasman

      Ah I see you actually believe that all the banks and investment houses from USA are in fact members of the EU…. OK…. What a dummy

      Try reading the Pro Remain FT who report that equivalence is the best route forward

      https://www.ft.com/content/7ec41a92-d822-11e6-944b-e7eb37a6aa8e

      • Tasman
        Posted October 3, 2017 at 4:20 pm | Permalink

        Libertarian, that is a very good article, which explains very clearly that there is no equivalence without a comprehensive deal. It should teach you that people like Mr Redwood who tell you that “No deal is fine” are totally missing the point

        • Edward2
          Posted October 4, 2017 at 7:02 am | Permalink

          Tasman
          How do many nations trade happily with Europe currently without being in the single market nor accepting freedom of movement nor allowing the EU courts supremacy over their nation?

          • acorn
            Posted October 5, 2017 at 6:35 am | Permalink

            They accept Third Country status or lump it.

          • Edward2
            Posted October 6, 2017 at 6:32 am | Permalink

            The country with the biggest trade growth in Europe since the fabled single market began is….America.
            Some “lump”

    • svcop3
      Posted October 3, 2017 at 10:42 pm | Permalink

      I suspect you are being deliberately obtuse, but he is talking about EU regulatory equivalence.

  6. Duncan
    Posted October 3, 2017 at 5:44 am | Permalink

    I’m more interested in the fundamentals of our relationship with the EU and the reassertion of our absolute independence in sovereign and legal terms

    When will British law reign supreme once more?

    When does the ECJ become inconsequential or will it still retain some form of influence on British law?

    When will the British Parliament reclaim its sovereignty?

    When will EU law be completely banished in its entirety?

    When can the United Kingdom declare itself to be a fully independent, sovereign nation once more?

    I have a dreadful feeling in my gut that the above will never happen in my lifetime, certainly not with May and Hammond in charge

    All else is fluff and drivel

    • Tabulazero
      Posted October 3, 2017 at 7:21 am | Permalink

      I fill answer those for you

      1. “When will British law reign supreme once more?”

      The only country that is fully sovereign is North Korea due to its complete isolationist policy. All countries, regardless of whether they are part of the EU or not or another political / economic entity, are bound by a web of international treaties and obligations. So is the answer is never.

      2. “When does the ECJ become inconsequential or will it still retain some form of influence on British law?”

      The EU, of whom the ECJ is the ultimate arbiter, is the UK’s neighbour by virtue of geography. It is 5x the size of the UK and will remain the UK’s main export market. In order to export to the EU, UK products will have to meet EU requirements, rules and regulation. Hence the EU and the ECJ will continue to have an impact on British law.

      3. “When will the British Parliament reclaim its sovereignty?”

      British Parliament is less sovereign than it used to be thanks to the machination of the lead Brexiter politicians that have managed to secure Henry the 8th power. I would like to remind you that it is only through the judicial efforts of the Remain side that your Parliament got to vote on what is the most important political decision of the past 40 years. Cabinet Collective Responsibility, which had been an hallmark of British political life, has been ground to dust by the antics of your current Foreign Secretary. Please spare a kind thought for Gina Miller.

      4.“When will EU law be completely banished in its entirety?”

      Never. See answer 2. Politics are one thing. Facts are another.

      5. “When can the United Kingdom declare itself to be a fully independent, sovereign nation once more?”

      As soon as it decides to become a pariah nation like North Korea which I sincerely hope will never happen.

    • acorn
      Posted October 3, 2017 at 10:01 am | Permalink

      By the tone of the speeches in today’s EU parliament’s debate on “State of play of negotiations with the United Kingdom”; we may as well throw in the towel and leave tomorrow!

      • Know-Dice
        Posted October 3, 2017 at 4:21 pm | Permalink

        Don’t “throw in the towel”, just stop negotiations and start trade deals with the rest of the world.

        Certainly remove any payments offered, they should have been conditional on “future relationship” talks now in any case.

  7. stred
    Posted October 3, 2017 at 5:55 am | Permalink

    In some ways, the UK is lucky to have an outpost over the sea with a border with the EU. Northern Ireland could become a busy trading post and prosper, as Hong Kong did with China. We could set up trading estates on the border with entrances for offices on both sides. The nameplate would be in the EU and staff could be in both economic blocks at the same time. All the insurance and banking business could be relayed electronically to London, Leeds, Manchester or Edinburgh. Irish cows could eat their British grass, be milked in the EU and the cheese diaries could expand their range to make Dutch French and Italian cheese. The Danes do a very good soft blue copy of Rochfort. We could call it Rochford.

    We could even declare the Euro to be legal tender in Northern Ireland along with a Northern Irish pound.Think of all the trading and exchange advantages of having part of the UK doing all this business and with instant links to the London clearing offices.

    Just think how much Mr Verhoftadt would hate this idea. He would be pissing wind and frothing at the mouth. It would be worth doing for the sight of this alone.

    • Peter VAN LEEUWEN
      Posted October 3, 2017 at 8:30 am | Permalink

      @stred, the Danish word for “strijd” (Dutch) or conflict?
      Actually, danablu is a terrible emulation of roquefort, not even made from ewes’ milk but cow’s milk and with a very different taste. You’d better stick to stilton and learn how to export it. 🙂

      • alan jutson
        Posted October 3, 2017 at 12:01 pm | Permalink

        Peter

        The arguments you have posted over the past years were always well set out and interesting to read, with many references to some form of facts and figures.

        Whilst I did not always agree with many of the points you made, it did offer an alternative view, which always had some form of merit in any discussion or debate.

        Of late your postings appear to have become rather less lucid, less factual, and rather more angry.

        Is Brexit getting to you, or are you becoming more frustrated with the EU, rather than the UK.

        • Peter VAN LEEUWEN
          Posted October 4, 2017 at 2:06 pm | Permalink

          @alan jutson: You make a valid point. I could try and contain my frustration about what I view as decades of anti-EU information originating in the UK, ranging from uninformed, to skewed and even to outright lies. But also there are rather interesting things happening in the (rest of the) EU, and I’ve become generally rather busy of late.
          I’ll try and post any opinions less frequently. In the meantime, if you could just tell me about the phrase “Let us renew the British dream” (Mrs. May). Is there one?

      • Posted October 3, 2017 at 6:23 pm | Permalink

        Compared with all the other blue cheeses of Europe, Stilton is the king without a doubt. In Spain is knocked Cabrese into the corner and I used it to charm my landlady – in return for homemade chorizos!

        • Diogenes
          Posted October 4, 2017 at 1:48 pm | Permalink

          Will I dare say that I prefer Roquefort, the Papillon not the Société one, to any young, middle of the road, or mature Stilton.

    • Robert Christopher
      Posted October 3, 2017 at 8:38 pm | Permalink

      stred

      “… be milked in the EU …”

      It’s OK: he is talking about the cows! 🙂

  8. Taigh
    Posted October 3, 2017 at 5:56 am | Permalink

    Your remarks about Ireland are deceitful, sir. The UK’s “plan” is for everyone to pretend that Brexit hasn’t happened, and that conditions at the Irish border will not change. But if you Brits choose to leave the EU, you Brits need to face up to the consequences – which is that things will change. You seem to think you can leave the EU club but still take all the membership benefits – I promise you that you are fooling no one in Dublin with this fairytale and you are not fooling Michel Barnier either.

    • Richard1
      Posted October 3, 2017 at 6:19 am | Permalink

      Why is there an issue unless the EU decides it wants to impose tariffs? If it does then Ireland will need to check goods so as to impose the EU’s tariffs. Hopefully the UK will go to free trade and say goods coming the other way are tariff free. For people it can work like the US Canada border which is not ‘hard’.

      • Biggles
        Posted October 3, 2017 at 9:10 am | Permalink

        You have clearly never tried to enter the US from Canada

        • Dennis Zoff
          Posted October 3, 2017 at 11:55 am | Permalink

          I have many times…never once had an issue?

          I am not aware of any colleagues of mine or friends and family having had a problem either.

          Maybe you have had another experience, which I would be interested to hear.

          • biggles
            Posted October 4, 2017 at 7:44 am | Permalink

            Seriously? You walked or drove from Canada into the US the same way we go from NI to RoI? No obstacle, no passport check, no queue, no nothing?

        • fedupsoutherner
          Posted October 4, 2017 at 8:14 am | Permalink

          Biggles

          I cant think of any problems. NOne that I have experienced anyway.

        • fedupsoutherner
          Posted October 4, 2017 at 8:16 am | Permalink

          Biggles

          If you mean having to show your passport and answer a few questions then I would rather do that than be able to travel from Spain into France and then onto the channel tunnel train into the UK with firearms like we did and nobody stop us. Our firearms were legally owned by the way unlike some terrorists!!

      • Tabulazero
        Posted October 3, 2017 at 12:42 pm | Permalink

        It is not only about tariffs.

        It’s also about safety standards and origin issues. The further the UK wants to move away from the Single-Market, which is what your government intend to do, the more checks there will be at the border with the Single-Market.

        I think no one disagree with that.

        • Edward2
          Posted October 4, 2017 at 7:06 am | Permalink

          UK exporters already have to meet the all tje various requirements of the nations they send their goods into.
          They have been meeting these regulations for decades all over the world.

          • Tabulazero
            Posted October 4, 2017 at 4:04 pm | Permalink

            Frictionless trade and diverging regulatory standards do not mix well together. The further way the UK moves away from the Single-Market, the more checks there will be.

            It’s a trade-off the UK government will have to address.

          • Edward2
            Posted October 5, 2017 at 8:58 am | Permalink

            Why should they diverge?
            Manufacturering companies make products for export to nations all over the world.
            Nearly every market area has different requirements.
            It is routine and being achieved every day as it has been for decades.
            If we want to export into a market we have to show we meet that nation’s technical requirements.
            It a nation changes its requirements then we change our product details to match.
            Most if not all of the audit checks are done electronically prior to delivery.

    • stred
      Posted October 3, 2017 at 6:44 am | Permalink

      Well, if you don’t want to sell us Irish cheddar, we can always make it in Somerset with Northern Irish milk if necessary.

      • David Price
        Posted October 3, 2017 at 5:45 pm | Permalink

        Alongside the Somerset Brie which I much prefer to French Brie

    • Tabulazero
      Posted October 3, 2017 at 7:40 am | Permalink

      Mr Redwood does not seem to understand that it is the UK that is leaving the EU, not the other way round.

      Since to my knowledge Ireland did not get to vote in the referendum, I really do not see on what ground you can have the gall to ask the EU to solve the mess Mr Redwood and his friends have created in the first place.

      • Ralph Hulbert
        Posted October 3, 2017 at 9:46 am | Permalink

        Ireland had a vote, got it ‘wrong’ and had to vote again! Perhaps they could have another one on whether they’d like to join the United Kingdom?!

      • Andy
        Posted October 3, 2017 at 10:35 am | Permalink

        It is an EU external border, so actually the EU does need to solve this. We have made a proposal which the arrogant EU has rejected, like everything else. So we can do our own thing on our own border.

        • getahead
          Posted October 3, 2017 at 6:51 pm | Permalink

          Quite right Andy. The EU would do better concerning itself with its Mediterranean border.

      • John
        Posted October 3, 2017 at 5:32 pm | Permalink

        What mess? We want free trade to spread economic prosperity to the world and reduce the poverty.

        Are you suggesting that the EU doesn’t? Well let it wring its hands in disdain, that’s where we differ.

      • David Price
        Posted October 3, 2017 at 5:49 pm | Permalink

        The EU isn’t being asked to solve it. The situation arises because we have followed a legal process under an EU treaty and expect a cooperative approach to a mutually beneficial solution. But the EU refuses to cooperate.

        You could say the EU did create the mess because they have not established a thorough mechanism for exit but left things completely open ended in Article 50.

      • zorro
        Posted October 3, 2017 at 7:10 pm | Permalink

        It is only a mess in the EU’s OCD like mindset, because you have to have your regulations hahahaha….. I will smile at you and say deal with it.

        zorro

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted October 3, 2017 at 9:04 am | Permalink

      Do tell me more about those “membership benefits”.

      Of course things will change. Things changed when we joined the EEC – and some of those changes were actually damaging to us – and they have changed again and again over the past 43 years, and they will change again when we leave the EU.

      The UK is exercising its right to leave the EU, a right recognised and embedded in the EU treaties through the Lisbon Treaty which the Irish government supported and the Irish people voted to accept, albeit on the second time of asking.

      You cannot say “True, we voted to insert an exit clause into the EU treaties, but nobody is ever allowed to use it and if they do we will blame them”.

      Our government has made it clear that as far as we are concerned we do not want to do anything which would cause people on either side of the border significant practical problems which they do not experience at present. It is your government, and the rest of the EU, which is looking to create needless problems.

    • bigneil
      Posted October 3, 2017 at 9:21 am | Permalink

      The “benefits” of the EU ? would that be the £55m a day paid to them so the so-called leaders can continue living their luxury lifestyles? Would that be the £55m rising annually if we stay in ? Would it be the demand that staying in means the loss of the Schengen wall and totally unlimited movement. ( that has worked REALLY well with terrorists freely allowed to zoom all over the rest of Europe) ? Would that be that any public building having a plaque on it saying “Funded by the EU ” when it is our own money that has been handed over in the first place?
      The EU is clearly a German led (plan for? ed)the rest of Europe. More people are seeing it for what it is.

    • Mark B
      Posted October 3, 2017 at 12:33 pm | Permalink

      What do you care ? It is not like it is going to affect you ?

  9. Posted October 3, 2017 at 6:06 am | Permalink

    …and Approved Economic Operators and their system of effortless movement over international borders?
    …and REACH? And the other international regulators?
    …and aero space facilities?
    …and phyto-sanitary arrangements for meat products, alive and dead?

    Without these computerised checks, the whole system is going to grind to a halt with a hard Brexit on March 29-30th 2019 at midnight.

    Reply We gave these checks now and can continue them

    • Edward2
      Posted October 3, 2017 at 6:26 am | Permalink

      Mike I have explained more than once how your concerns on the REACH Regs are unfounded, but you continue to raise the issue.

    • Chris
      Posted October 3, 2017 at 9:01 am | Permalink

      Reply to M Stallard: please check your use of “phyto-sanitary”.
      Definition of phytosanitary: of, relating to, or being measures for the control of PLANT diseases especially in agricultural crops.

      • mike fowle
        Posted October 3, 2017 at 1:10 pm | Permalink

        Chris, yes. As a former customs officer I used to have to check phytosanitary certificates for PLANTS.

    • Dennis Zoff
      Posted October 3, 2017 at 12:04 pm | Permalink

      Phytosanitary certification is used to attest that consignments meet phytosanitary (regarding plants not meat) import requirements and is undertaken by an NPPO (National Plant Protection Organization)

      Simple mistake, but does highlight the lack of correct detail and/or real understanding of general cross boarder movement standards!

  10. Nig l
    Posted October 3, 2017 at 6:06 am | Permalink

    Thank you. Why do Hammond and Rudd not see it with such clarity?

    • Bryan Harris
      Posted October 3, 2017 at 6:33 am | Permalink

      Why do Hammond and Rudd not see it with such clarity?
      They are coming at this from a different angle it seems – perhapd they have their own agenda

      • Lifelogic
        Posted October 3, 2017 at 9:36 am | Permalink

        Do Hammond and Rudd see anything with clarity and reason?

        Hammond should concentrate on cutting the absurd tax rates, cancelling the vanity project and green crap, cutting stamp duty, stop mugging pensions and the gig economy and trimming the bloated and largely inept state sector.

        Rudd should decide on how a points system for UK entry rights will work and how non qualifiers will be returned. Oh sorry T May has said we cannot have a “points” system so how the “merits” will work.

        Keep up the good work JR you are spot on today.

    • Tabulazero
      Posted October 3, 2017 at 7:29 am | Permalink

      Because what Mr Redwood posted is a gross oversimplification than no one actually in charge of Brexit at company level is taking seriously.

      • Bryan Harris
        Posted October 3, 2017 at 3:21 pm | Permalink

        On the contrary – it seems that some people are trying to make this more complex than it needs to be.

        Nothing is going to grind to a halt when we finally have had enough of the EU machinations and just leave with no deals.

        • zorro
          Posted October 3, 2017 at 7:13 pm | Permalink

          I long for the day when these Jonah’s comforters like characters on this blog wither away and disappear like the Marxist state – fat chance I suppose!

          zorro

          • zorro
            Posted October 4, 2017 at 10:07 am | Permalink

            Sorry Job’s comforters!

            zorro

    • A different Simon
      Posted October 4, 2017 at 12:07 am | Permalink

      The eg0-maniac authoritarian Rudd has just announced 15 year jail sentences for the thought crime of viewing terrorist propaganda online including “Far Right” propaganda .

      Seems that “Big Brother” decides what you should be watching and thinking ,

      She is worse than May who wants to keep the horrendous European Arrest Warrant after Brexit .

      I don’t particularly like Rees-Mogg but the country desperately needs to make a break from the more-of-the-same mediocrity which May , Hammond and Rudd are serving up .

      May is intent on supporting the New World Order (Rules Based International System) .

      Rees-Mogg is a maverick as was Churchill , cometh the hour , cometh the man ?

      • fedupsoutherner
        Posted October 4, 2017 at 8:11 am | Permalink

        A Different Simon

        Yes a combination of Rees Mog and Boris is my cup of tea.

  11. am
    Posted October 3, 2017 at 6:38 am | Permalink

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41477817
    This looks like the humiliation of May by the eu parliament rejecting her Florence speech as in sufficient fro further talks on trade. She, since she made the speech, despite Macro, Junkers, et al, expressing their unacceptance of it for future trade talks now, has had her head in the sand as if it had been approved by them. If she continues that approach after the mep’s reject her then we will be clear that she is selling out brexit on eu terms and will give in further to them. It is her to be sacked not boris who has the foresight to see the sell out coming. Of course if she now gives her opportunity for strong and stable leadership, brexit means brexit, a red white and blue brexit, remember these forgotten phrases and she will save her premiership, if not the she will be remembered as the sell out pm. And you will go down with her as a sold out exiter should you adopt her position.

    • a-tracy
      Posted October 4, 2017 at 10:46 am | Permalink

      We were told the resolution voted upon was drawn up before last weeks 4th negotiating round – it should have been benched. However, this talk about EU friendship does need to be considered carefully as 557 to 92 voted against the UK as some demonstration to us that there are no feelings of goodwill and nothing will be good enough.

  12. Bryan Harris
    Posted October 3, 2017 at 6:42 am | Permalink

    It would seem that the PM is getting the wrong advice then
    Time we started putting more pressure on the PM to seek this alterante view

    Red lines proposed by Boris are reasonably sensible… but the remain camp within government are even attacking them…or rather him, which is very socialist of them.

    JR – nobody would blame you if you stopped being quite so polite in getting your views across – NOW is the time to start insisting on a clean break

    • Dennis Zoff
      Posted October 3, 2017 at 12:14 pm | Permalink

      Absolutely correct JR. We need a clean political break from the EU!

      The UK/European businesses will quickly instigate a way to work together and will just get on with business as usual.

      It seems those that have never run a business are the ones putting up needless sophistic barriers?

    • autumn17
      Posted October 3, 2017 at 5:05 pm | Permalink

      @Bryan Harris
      autumn
      “nobody would blame you if you stopped being quite so polite”
      Love it.
      When you’re right, you’re right.

      Quarter of Labourz ok and Quarter of Conz ok

      • Bryan Harris
        Posted October 4, 2017 at 6:54 am | Permalink

        (:

  13. stred
    Posted October 3, 2017 at 6:57 am | Permalink

    Off subject. I turned on Channel 4 News briefly for a laugh last night and Jon **** the Tories Snow was doing the interview about the most important matter facing the nation- whether or not to sack Boris for being positive about Brexit and actually respecting the promises made during the referendum. For a balanced opinion, they had found a large female MP called Antionette and Anna Sobry, both enthusiastic Remainers, who both were very keen to sack him. In between was a little Scottish journalist who occasionally was able to get a word in to support him. As an example of TV news bias, it was a classic.

    • fedupsoutherner
      Posted October 4, 2017 at 8:09 am | Permalink

      @Stred

      Agree with your comments on Boris. Perhaps there are a few people worried that Boris might actually be right and that if he were to become leader of the Tory party they might start getting things right again!

    • a-tracy
      Posted October 4, 2017 at 10:51 am | Permalink

      This endless media ‘sack him, sack her’ is frankly getting annoying now. None of these people have ever run a business that’s for sure, or they would know that people deserve to be able to put their point of your dispute over before you just scream dismissal. These remain MPs are frankly the worst, Heidi Allen (who?) is another one reported to want Boris’ “sacked”.

      I don’t want Mr Duncan sacked for his negative unscientific words about leave voters. The number of people that voted to leave the EU over the number that wanted to remain are larger than the entire population of Belgium (that rules us) yet Mr Duncan dismissed them yesterday as “blue collar, urban, trad.labour opinion going viral for leave”. I’d rather have his evidence, an apology and us questioning whether it was helpful to the UK moving forward for him to say this sort of thing?

  14. Tabulazero
    Posted October 3, 2017 at 7:02 am | Permalink

    “We will be able to trade as do other non EU members, using the doctrine of equivalence and world trade rules.”

    Please, stop peddling myths to the British public. Equivalence is not the same as access. WTO does not cover services very well, especially financial services. ESMA (the European Securities and Markets Authority) position paper on Brexit calls for EU regulators to be tough on proposed relocations and, in particular, any proposals to delegate functions back to the UK.

    Banks, including main street British banks, are already actively relocating functions and staff to the Continent and for good reason.

    Mr Redwood, you are fully entitled to your views on Brexit which have been the cornerstone of your whole political career. I have never expected you to change them. I am however quite disappointed that you would rely on outright lies to defend them.

    • Edward2
      Posted October 4, 2017 at 7:12 am | Permalink

      Your argument is based on no agreement ever being made and all trade between Europe and the UK ceasing as a result.
      I think this is unlikely.

  15. am
    Posted October 3, 2017 at 7:16 am | Permalink

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41475579
    Better from May re BJ and a slap down to Hammond and Heseltine. The latter defies description and the former is hanging on by a thread.

    • DaveM
      Posted October 3, 2017 at 12:23 pm | Permalink

      I’ve got to the point where I don’t care that much who’s in charge – can we just have someone who is actually able to take charge?!

      • stred
        Posted October 4, 2017 at 7:19 am | Permalink

        Unless it’s Amber Rudd, in which case we would all get 15 years in clink for looking at this extreme right block, where some of us have said she is a liberal dictator as well as an incompetent duffer hanging on by a slim majority.

        • stred
          Posted October 5, 2017 at 11:19 am | Permalink

          blog not block. My smart keeps knowing better than it’s owner. AI rules.

  16. Duncan
    Posted October 3, 2017 at 7:25 am | Permalink

    It is important that the British realise exactly what the EU has become. It is no longer a force with honourable intentions but a force for political and economic punishment. It has at its heart a policy of penalties for any member who dares to step out of line and indeed expresses any form of anti-EU sentiment

    The EU should also remember that the UK is a major export market for many companies residing in EU member states. We are also a flexible, free-market economy that can bend in the wind of change unlike the French, Italians and to some extent the Germans whose central bank is holding huge amounts of Italian, Spanish and Greek IOU’s on it balance sheet

    No wonder the EU zealots want to punish the UK and terrify us into submission. The EU needs our cash and contributions

    I would rather starve than belong to a vile, dishonourable, authoritarian and destructive entity such as the EU

  17. Tabulazero
    Posted October 3, 2017 at 7:37 am | Permalink

    Dear Mr Redwood,

    Your answers and the level of preparedness they entail are shockingly poor. They may be sufficient for the geriatric wing of the Conservative party but I doubt they come close to answering the genuine concerns the rest of society may have.

    Best regards.

    • Richard1
      Posted October 3, 2017 at 9:43 am | Permalink

      Could you post your specific disagreements, ie why JR is wrong in your view.

      • Tabulazero
        Posted October 3, 2017 at 11:25 am | Permalink

        This has already been done.

    • John Finn
      Posted October 3, 2017 at 2:44 pm | Permalink

      I agree with Richard1. Let’s see your specific complaints. You’re spouting the same lack of preparedness guff that we’ve been hearing and reading in the remain supporting media.

      When did this all become so complicated? How did it happen? Was it when we were going through those “tidying up” exercises? That wasn’t the impression I – nor many other people – got at the time. The EEC vote is 1975 was sold as a vote to join the Common Market – nothing else.

      Apparently, according to you, no-one in the UK understands the complexity of the EU. If that’s true – then we shouldn’t be in it. Warren buffet the multi-multi – billion pound US investor has a golden rule – he never gets involved in something he doesn’t understand.

      That should apply to our membership of the EU. If we don’t understand it – lets’get out NOW because they’ll be no PPI-like compensation payouts if it all goes wrong.

      • John Finn
        Posted October 3, 2017 at 2:49 pm | Permalink

        “they’ll” should be “there’ll”.

  18. Bert Young
    Posted October 3, 2017 at 7:56 am | Permalink

    Face reality and get on with it is my advice to the Government . There are many intangibles of the outcome post Brexit and all of them will not be solved with equanimity beforehand . When the referendum was put to the country nothing was mentioned about the “ifs and the buts” ; the people wanted ” out ” pure and simple . Once “out” any detail and follow up can be continued .

  19. Techy
    Posted October 3, 2017 at 8:00 am | Permalink

    Amber Rudd is trending or “going viral” on Twitter again. Some are upset she wishes to legislate on matters relating to Service Providers and encryption whilst confessing she knows nothing about it…or not understanding it. She understands absolutely everything about immigration but still makes the wrong decisions. Twitter also informs us she is planning a leadership bid and explains why “it” knows.
    We should have a headless chicken as PM…and Home Secretary. No-one will spot the difference

  20. MPC
    Posted October 3, 2017 at 8:09 am | Permalink

    This is all very well but with the Government’s commitment to an ‘around’ 2 year transition the EU feels it holds all the cards and will string it all out as it knows full well this PM, if still in post, will not take us out without a ‘deal’: the Opposition parties would have the upper hand, arguing – so where is the ‘deep and special relationship’ in the absence of a ‘deal’? What then happens in March 2019 at the end of the Article 50 process when there is still no deal? Won’t we still be committed to a (lengthening) ‘transition period’ and continuing payments to the EU?

  21. jack Snell
    Posted October 3, 2017 at 8:18 am | Permalink

    JR – you make it sound so ver easy- I don’t know why we are even discussing anything with the EU at all- we should just walk away and save ourselves all of this bother?

    You assume that the UCIT funds will continue to be available to UK residents- maybe if EU banking and financials regulatory authorities agree

    You assume that other passported products will be available to UK nationals because the UK will allow it – but question is will the EU allow it?

    You assume that everything else will continue as normal under the doctrine of regulatory equivalence and WTO rules- hardly if the EU side doesn’t want to tango?

    You assume derivitive contracts will still work for UK nationals within the EU- maybe if the EU side agree?

    You assume little or no disruption to red tape to export but only some more forms to fill out? nonsense- and the customs officials themselves on both sides of the channel will guarantee disruption- that is what they do-. We are guaranteed massive disruption to trade.

    You assume just because the UK has issued a paper on the Irish border everything will be alright- how very simplistic of you before you move trippingly along to the next item. Here’s the thing- the Irish have suffered a political border scarring the island of Ireland for a hundred years and they are not now going to allow anyone put up with another economic type border for trade across the land just because the UK government want’s an easy way out. There will be trouble- big trouble.

    You assume universities won’t suffer- well they probably will in a big way if foreign students take their cue from how we intend to treat foreigners who visit our shores in the future- they will just stay away. You assume that we’ll be in a position to contribute to and belong to various European schemes. Maybe- depends on how hard the cliff edge fall is?

    Fishing- yes I’m sure we can manage going back to our old 12 mile fishing limits that we had before 1973. Territorial limits were always there at 3 miles from the coast and remain the same

    I really don’t think too much about your current plan- there are too many assumptions

  22. Peter
    Posted October 3, 2017 at 8:27 am | Permalink

    Thanks. The government still needs to provide a regular update on our preparations for ‘No Deal’ though. I am not prepared to take it on trust that work is being done. I need to see the evidence. It will help our bargaining position too.

    Finally the country functioned with no problems before we entered the Common Market and there is no reason it will not continue to do so once we leave.

  23. Prigger
    Posted October 3, 2017 at 8:29 am | Permalink

    The EU in their Pretend-Parliament this second is saying 52% of the British voted to leave the EU. No, the UK decided by it methods of reaching a democratic and binding decision 100% to leave the EU.

    • Franz
      Posted October 3, 2017 at 9:14 am | Permalink

      Well just leave then. And you sort out the Irish border, you have created the problem. And you will pay for the costs that follow your decision. Sad what England has become, but just go

      • Doug Powell
        Posted October 3, 2017 at 11:11 am | Permalink

        Yes, we would very much like to JUST go!

        What country in its right mind would want to be part of an organisation that cannot bring itself to condemn the use of State Thuggery against Democratic Activity?

      • fedupsoutherner
        Posted October 3, 2017 at 11:55 am | Permalink

        Franz

        ‘But just go’

        If only we could. I can’t wait until we are a sovereign nation once again and don’t have to bow or scrape to the undemocratic EU any more or give them anymore of our money. I am sure we can sort out the Irish border but the EU countries need to look at theirs with the ease that terrorists keeping moving around.

      • Prigger
        Posted October 3, 2017 at 11:58 am | Permalink

        Well Germany can sort out the Russia problem. She has experience of doing that as in Stalingrad and in fact the Ukraine. Germany never never never learns. We have, Russians shoot back.

      • Dennis Zoff
        Posted October 3, 2017 at 12:20 pm | Permalink

        We agree with you….just tell the EU to get on with it then! Oh, of course they won’t, because they need the money! Nice try though!

      • DaveM
        Posted October 3, 2017 at 12:31 pm | Permalink

        I wish we could. Sad what we’ve become? No Franz, it’s sad what once great European nation states have become – lapdogs to an unelected commission. Ireland not even allowed to sort out its own border, a French president who doesn’t even play his own national anthem, one of the worlds great manufacturing giants not allowed to negotiate its own trade deals – the list is endless. More than happy to sort out our own mess thank you.

      • Mark B
        Posted October 3, 2017 at 12:41 pm | Permalink

        The problem was not created by us. If the other EU countries just agreed to, David Cameron very modest requests for some reforms then the whole issue could have been adverted.

        But we chose to leave and have issued Article 50 and, with any luck, we will be gone by 30th March 2019. What happens after that is anyone’s guess but at least our future will, once again, be in our hands. You of course will have to make compromises with the other 26 EU countries and, under QMV, you might not like what is to come, mein herr.

        😉

      • Denis Cooper
        Posted October 3, 2017 at 2:31 pm | Permalink

        When the UK ratified the Lisbon Treaty it agreed inter alia that if any member state wished to leave the EU then it should use the exit procedure laid down in Article 50 TEU, and that is what the UK is doing.

      • zorro
        Posted October 3, 2017 at 7:16 pm | Permalink

        How are you going to enforce that Franz? We are all ears 🙂

        zorro

      • zorro
        Posted October 4, 2017 at 11:55 am | Permalink

        We are cool with Irish border/CTA arrangements and have been since 1923. If you have a problem, and it’s not a problem for us, then it’s your problem!

        zorro

    • Doug Powell
      Posted October 3, 2017 at 10:53 am | Permalink

      Agree!
      Also, have you noticed how the remoaners always use the figures 52/48 to suggest it (4) was a narrow win? Last week I even heard a labour MP say on TV that the result was 50/50!

      In this country psephologists use ‘Majority’ as the most useful term to describe results. They use percentage when talking about ‘swing’, but have you ever heard one say a candidate has to overturn a 0.0019% majority to take the seat?

      The Brexit Majority was 1.4 million votes! Correct those who use 52/48!

  24. Epikouros
    Posted October 3, 2017 at 8:31 am | Permalink

    The EU and remainers do not want these plain facts made common knowledge so you will not see any similar messages appearing in the likes the BBC, Guardian any left wing/progressive media in fact. Others will not find it expedient enough to print or expound either as they prefer complication rather than simple so that they can churn out more reams of meaningless mumbo jumbo to keep their audiences entertained. Hype is preferable to rational common sense there is no story in that and if it is a simple and as you say and I would suggest that it is then the debate over Brexit is nothing but hot air and superfluous to actual mechanics of leaving the EU.

  25. Denis Cooper
    Posted October 3, 2017 at 9:23 am | Permalink

    Off-topic,

    This morning on BBC London News there was a lady from the City corporation who said that settled EU workers should not be treated as bargaining chips and they should be told that their contribution is valued and they are welcome to stay.

    I have sent an email to their contact address pointing out that Theresa May has repeated ad nauseam that she values the contribution of settled EU workers and they are welcome to stay. And as for not using them as bargaining chips, well, that term came from Sir Ivan Rogers who gave Theresa May the bad, perhaps deliberately destructive, advice to make fair treatment of these blameless ordinary people conditional upon the good behaviour of the politicians in their home governments.

    Of course I am not expecting anybody in the UK government t0 rebut this repetitive rubbish from an official at the City of London Corporation, or from any other source, which is made available to be uncritically and gleefully disseminated by the Brussels Broadcasting Corporation or by the Sky Campaign Against Brexit.

    For God’s sake, JR, tell David Davis to wake up and insist on putting somebody who is committed to Brexit, and energetic and competent, in charge of a rapid rebuttal unit. Maybe that chap David Jones who was sacked by Theresa May could do the job.

    • rose
      Posted October 6, 2017 at 1:03 am | Permalink

      If only we could have that chap back and in the cabinet.

  26. Denis Cooper
    Posted October 3, 2017 at 9:58 am | Permalink

    We’ve had over four decades of making all kinds of legal and practical adjustments to fit in with our participation in the EEC/EC/EU/USE project, so of course there is the potential for massive disruption if our withdrawal is poorly handled by either or both sides.

    However that doesn’t mean we should shy away from leaving as the voters decided in the referendum, it just means that the preparations need to be as thorough as possible and if necessary there should be treaty provisions for some of the changes to be completed after we have left the EU and are no longer subject to its treaties.

    As for the costs of failing to organise an optimum withdrawal, most likely because the EU had decided that it wants as bad an outcome as it can contrive, the truth is that the worst case scenarios are nowhere near as bad as some Remoaners like to make out.

    They are naturally prone to gross exaggeration – indeed they have to exaggerate in order to make even a half-way convincing case for staying in the EU – and they have no respect at all for objective truth.

  27. Tabulazero
    Posted October 3, 2017 at 10:01 am | Permalink

    “Clarity on the nature of transitional plans to manage banks’ loss of passporting rights has become imperative. If unresolved, companies will be forced to implement worst-case contingencies. Comments in late September from UBS’ Investment Bank head, Andrea Orcel, promised a significant shift from the U.K. if a transition deal isn’t agreed by March.”

    • John
      Posted October 3, 2017 at 5:38 pm | Permalink

      I’ve not seen more than 5% shift and that’s only those Euro trading.

      Autumn 2015 G Osborne described the EU’s proposed attack on the UK’s financial sector as an act of war. They intended to destroy the UK’s financial sector (had we stayed in the EU). Is that not far worse than loosing say a few thousand Euro trading jobs. Most of those traders are from the continent and so would like to be nearer their family.

      I’d swap 2000 continential Euro traders for a boost of 90,ooo fishing industry jobs back, wouldn’t you?

    • getahead
      Posted October 3, 2017 at 6:58 pm | Permalink

      You’re a bit ahead of yourself Tabulazero. The EU has yet to get past its €100 billion bill.

  28. jackH
    Posted October 3, 2017 at 10:35 am | Permalink

    Am afraid that our UK politicians are not matching up and not from the Labour party side either- except for maybe Keir Starmer- we just don’t have the quality today to match the EU side in negotiations..with too much attentoon being paid to boot boys like Boris and dogmatic types like Liam Fox, IDS etc etc..people with little or no imagination..and as per JR’s contribution today we can see that a good part of all of this is because of our leaders delusional wooly thinking..

  29. Prigger
    Posted October 3, 2017 at 10:45 am | Permalink

    Eventually I found a readable schedule on the internet for the Tory Party Conference and in time found the time when Boris is to make his speech. However there is not any indication that I can find of what prize I have won for so doing and when and how it will be sent to me. Perhaps Boris will read out my contact details… so I can train others.

  30. Original Richard
    Posted October 3, 2017 at 10:50 am | Permalink

    We can’t of course force the EU to negotiate a deal even if it is against their own treaties to not do so.

    The harder the UK’s EU supporters work to prevent Brexit the harder will be the EU’s negotiating position as they still believe that by not negotiating the UK will capitulate and request to re-join the EU under their terms.

    Even if the EU decides it must allow the UK to leave, they will want to make sure they can extract as much money from us as possible and leave itself with as much control as possible through EU citizens’ rights and the ECJ.

    However, we must continue talking to the EU to find the solutions to providing a smooth exit even though there is no willingness at this stage for the EU to implement these solutions.

    But at the same time we should make it clear that we are preparing for the “no deal” scenario.

    Just as importantly government should be more active in countering the anti-Brexit rhetoric on economic issues, promoting the benefits of sovereignty, and neutralising/sidelining the anti-Brexit elements in the Civil Service.

    Mr. Hollande said 07/10/2016 about Brexit :
    “There must be a threat, there must be a risk, there must be a price….”

    Capitulation to the EU’s threats must not be the outcome of our democratic vote to leave the EU.

  31. HenryS
    Posted October 3, 2017 at 11:30 am | Permalink

    No deal is the cliff edge and will be that and all that it entails – just contemplating it is mind numbing stuff – the awful frightening thing is that we have leaders here today in government who are promoting this as a way forward. They are politicians and also some industry chiefs who well know that there are no new trade deals with overseas countries waiting there around the corner and yet they persist in holding the stupid line – taking back control – no deal is better than a bad deal – the mind boggles

  32. Russ
    Posted October 3, 2017 at 11:51 am | Permalink

    Will we reassert our territorial limits

    >
    Theresa May will make sure we do not have sufficient naval power without French help.
    The globalists seek to prove globalism is inevitable.

  33. Mick
    Posted October 3, 2017 at 12:13 pm | Permalink

    There is a cliff edge and they have just caused it
    http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/861694/Brexit-news-MEPs-vote-no-sufficient-progress-Britain-EU-exit-talks
    Its about time your party stood up to these eu muppets and told them to shove it we are gone bye bye you can come begging to us in the future, I still have this image engraved in my thoughts of how these eu muppets totally ignored Mrs May on her first meeting with them showing the lack of respect she deserved being our PM

  34. ian
    Posted October 3, 2017 at 12:20 pm | Permalink

    If you want a deal with the EU, you will have to leave first. The quicky you leave the quicky the EU will come to terms on a trade deal. Like said in the beginning, you cannot have talks with the EU while they pick the terms and subjects leaving the UK with no say in the talks. As for the UK holding up Brexit over a few hundreds of thousands of people and about 1% of companies is well over the top. I have never seen a gov in this country before going around the country asking people and businesses if ok to bring in a law or changes before so why should Brexit be different if a hand full of people and businesses have a complaint or is it just that these people and businesses are close to MPs in parliament to make MPs hold back from leaving the EU or is it just the case that the majority of MPs still want to stay in the EU as long as possible to pay them money.

  35. Jack
    Posted October 3, 2017 at 12:36 pm | Permalink

    Off topic but important:

    President Erdogan of Turkey has just been speaking truth about interest rates, says high rates are causing high inflation in his country. Just as I have been stating on this site, and just as the founder of MMT (Warren Mosler) has shown.

    LOWER INTEREST RATES REDUCE INFLATION VIA THE COST STRUCTURE OF THE ECONOMY! Mark Carney and JR have no idea and their misunderstanding of this fundamental truth is leading them astray.

  36. Russ
    Posted October 3, 2017 at 12:36 pm | Permalink

    Why does the Euro track the Sterling on the 1 Min Forex charts?
    If I want to scalp on the 1 Min charts I just look at where Sterling is moving and a few seconds later the Euro will follow, most of the time in the last week or so for sure.

  37. James Neill
    Posted October 3, 2017 at 2:02 pm | Permalink

    What happens if there is no deal will depend very much on what the EU allows and agrees to, and since they have already said that UK cannot have it’s cake and eat it I would not hold out too much hope for a successful outcome. As another commentator said a while back- when it comes to the EU, politics will trump economics each time.

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted October 4, 2017 at 8:05 am | Permalink

      The portion of cake is in any case nowhere near as large as you make it out to be, and we can manage perfectly well with or without it.

  38. Prigger
    Posted October 3, 2017 at 3:51 pm | Permalink

    Boris’ speech was good. No, people, the young, do not know the British Rail Sandwich organic representation of limpness. Not possible to tell youth. Plastic modern Marxists prey on those of us without a long history and eat them. Survival of the fittest…the only biological joke apart from the Duck-Billed Platypus.

    • Know-Dice
      Posted October 3, 2017 at 4:26 pm | Permalink

      Boris’ was great 🙂

      I’m afraid that I tend to quite like him – is that, that wrong?

  39. a-tracy
    Posted October 3, 2017 at 4:12 pm | Permalink

    Boris’ speech was measured and upbeat and then that traitorous little man …Duncan comes along moments after his boss has finished speaking to undermine our Country and our people and just in time for the Guardian to give it’s readers the message it wants to give rather than Boris’ message of hope – you little ****.

  40. Establishment
    Posted October 3, 2017 at 4:12 pm | Permalink

    The EU has voted for an0ther delay in negotiations. They hope we will leave without a deal. They believe their own propaganda of a cliff edge. They hope the Labour Party, LibDems and SNP will come to power as a result and take us limping back into the EU with a facade of a Socialist victory. Corbyn, Cable and Sturgeon hope this. They know what they are.

  41. Corbynista-like
    Posted October 3, 2017 at 4:46 pm | Permalink

    Ye Olde Mail is planning strike action at Christmas. Trade union activists plan using social media, facebook, msn hotmail and Messenger, skype, yahoo mail, google mail and Messenger, Periscope and Twitter and others to organise picket lines and meetings as they know Royal Mail is utterly unreliable and bound for extinction especially because of the strikes at Christmas Time. The Labour Party fully supports their inconveniencing of the public and the resultant takeover of communications by American internet companies who they hope to compel to pay more tax…and so create jobs.

  42. Lear's Fool
    Posted October 3, 2017 at 5:55 pm | Permalink

    But nuncle – the concept of regulatory equivalence doesn’t apply to UCITS as there is no third country regime in the UCITS Directive and also ESMA has precluded any delegation of portfolio management to U.K. managers and advisers from EU UCITS in its recent outsourcing and delegations opinion for the asset management sector.
    “Where there is no guidance the people fall, But in abundance of counselors there is victory.” (Proverbs 11-14)

  43. Denis Cooper
    Posted October 3, 2017 at 6:07 pm | Permalink

    An odd snippet – apparently most staff at the EU medicines agency like being located in London, or in the UK, or both, and large numbers will not be prepared to relocate when the agency moves.

    https://euobserver.com/tickers/139261

    “According to a staff survey published last week, 19%-94% (depending on the new host city) said they would quit.”

    One might have thought that large numbers would welcome the opportunity to get away from the horrible xenophobic British.

    • Original Richard
      Posted October 4, 2017 at 7:38 am | Permalink

      In the light of the fact that 80% of the staff do not wish to move from London perhaps the UK should make a generous offer to the EU to fund this organisation ourselves if it remains in the UK?

      Probably cheaper than paying the EU’s relocation bill of £520million or more.

  44. Denis Cooper
    Posted October 3, 2017 at 6:26 pm | Permalink

    According to Fiona Bruce on the BBC News Britain has not made enough progress for EU talks to move on to the next phase. That’s right, that’s what she said; not “The talks have not made enough progress”, but “Britain has not made enough progress”.

    And that assessment of the progress has been made by the god-like Michel Barnier, who in the eyes of Remainers must always be right about everything, because after all he has been appointed by the beloved EU as their chief negotiator.

    Well, apart from when he said that the whole of the EU Single Market has only added a measly 2% to the collective GDP of the EU member states, page 13 here:

    https://publications.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/c505dbb4-64f1-40a6-8062-ebdea6240bd4

    Clearly that cannot be correct, because Remainers tell us that the EU Single Market is vital for our prosperity, so it must have done more than just make a useful addition to our GDP equivalent to less than one year’s average natural growth of the UK economy.

  45. Norman
    Posted October 3, 2017 at 9:05 pm | Permalink

    JR: its quite noticeable that your comments section has been systematically infiltrated the past few days with a concerted campaign to sow seeds of doubt. I recognize the tactics. We clearly are at a pivotal moment. Take care! 🙂

    • David Price
      Posted October 4, 2017 at 2:40 pm | Permalink

      JR made it into Politico’s 40 Brexit troublemakers. His blog is attracting flak because he is on target.

  46. john
    Posted October 3, 2017 at 9:24 pm | Permalink

    Who is responsible for allowing the EU to set the agenda for leaving? I always thought there were meant to be two sides in this negotiation

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted October 4, 2017 at 8:01 am | Permalink

      David Davis, following Theresa May’s idea that if we are really nice to them they will be nice to us. I can’t say that is working out particularly well.

    • bratwurst
      Posted October 4, 2017 at 8:18 am | Permalink

      May & Davis. May because her Article 50 notice could have given an outline of how the negotiations should be structured and Davis because he rolled over and agreed to the current structure at the first negotiation meeting (despite having previously said he wouldn’t agree).

    • Franz
      Posted October 4, 2017 at 10:17 am | Permalink

      The EU is much the stronger party. Obviously. The UK has shot itself in both feet

  47. BertD
    Posted October 3, 2017 at 10:36 pm | Permalink

    Listening to Liam Fox tonight on bbc I now know we are sunk

    It seems there is no great plan yet for future trade deals with countries overseàs ..

    So it’s all bonkers-here we are leaving the EU in the hope that we get the same trading with them but from a position of outside of the bloc..complete nonsense and no contingency planning.. the cliff edge looms

    • Edward2
      Posted October 4, 2017 at 7:16 am | Permalink

      We currently trade with many nations without any trade agreements.
      As does the EU

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted October 4, 2017 at 7:58 am | Permalink

      If you recall we were told that all these trade deals would simply fall as far as the UK was concerned. Having them continue rather than fall is an important first step in the right direction, afterwards we can seek to improve them. As for trade with the EU, as repeatedly stated the benefits of the EU Single Market for our economy have been consistently and vastly overstated by Remainers.

    • bratwurst
      Posted October 4, 2017 at 8:20 am | Permalink

      Don’t worry, we have been assured there is no cliff edge. It will be alright on the night.

  48. hans christian ivers
    Posted October 4, 2017 at 8:19 am | Permalink

    John,

    there is no such thing as a smooth Brexit without some sort of deal and the business world does not wish that sort of outcome either.

    Thank you for the responses they are correct but relatively weak and from a business perspective not very satisfactory.

    thank you

  • About John Redwood


    John Redwood won a free place at Kent College, Canterbury, He graduated from Magdalen College Oxford, has a DPhil and is a fellow of All Souls College. A businessman by background, he has been a director of NM Rothschild merchant bank and chairman of a quoted industrial PLC.

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