Borders open for trade

The EU is labouring under various misapprehensions about the UK. It seems to think if it hangs tough the UK will make more generous offers. It feels it has no need to engage on trade as if their access to our market will stay the same whatever the outcome of the talks. They need to realise if we leave without a deal we will put in the current EU tariff schedule  with the EU  outside our border paying the tariffs  to comply with WTO rules.  They apparently think if they block an open border proposal made by the UK for Northern Ireland the UK will give in and agree that all or part of the UK has to stay in the customs union.

It is in everyone’s interest involved with the Republic of Ireland and N0rthern Ireland to uphold the various Agreements and to retain an open border. The UK has set out clearly how that can be achieved. Outside the customs union the UK would have an electronic border for the goods of recognised traders, allowing their trucks through without stopping through number plate recognition against filed documentation  in advance. Small Irish and Northern Irish traders regularly crossing the border would be exempted from tariffs and other new barriers. We will install this unilaterally if there is no deal. The EU will have to decide if it wants to put up its own more restrictive border on the Republic side. The Republic of Ireland needs to sort out with its EU colleagues just how they will operate their side of the border.

The papers published on Monday on Customs and Trade make clear the UK has a solution for our borders with No Deal or with a Trade Agreement with the EU.  We will adapt the current registered Economic Operators approach, so most of our trade will be notified in advance of the truck or container reaching our port.Goods from approved traders will go straight through without extra customs checks compared to today, with any duty settled electronically as part of the account. Ro Ro ports which mainly handle EU trade will be brought within this same system as EU trade becomes foreign trade if we have no deal.

The UK government is well advanced with changing EU trade agreements with other countries into UK trade agreements with those countries, as it is entitled to on splitting from the EU. There is no cliff edge. A Transition period may only be needed if the EU and the UK come to a late agreement next year which requires computer and physical changes to our border arrangements that need time to implement. Getting on with implementing a customs and border check system for No Deal covers most of the issues anyway.

There is growing resistance amongst Brexit voters and many businesses to the idea of a long further period of delay. Uncertainty is reduced by preparing for No Deal in ways which allow a deal. If the EU as I fear says the UK has not done enough to warrant trade talks anytime soon the government needs to redouble its work to make a success of No Deal. Maybe then the EU will see they have overplayed their intrinsically weak hand.


  1. Newmania
    October 11, 2017

    Mr Redwood assured me that there was a solution to passporting, (equivalence , he says ). Yesterday providers of Insurance to the UK sent to me the request they have received from our regulatory authorities asking them how they plan to continue trading.
    Fronting or recapitalisation the UK are the only solutions , ie there is no solution . I emailed one and said , why not just” rely on the doctrine of equivalence “ how we laughed .
    The magic N Ireland border that is open and shut does not exist and a border through which you can freely pass by the magic of electronic gadgets as yet uninvented is ridiculous .
    Show me these papers , show me this mysterious cake and eat it document
    Raphael Baehr , thinks that Redwood wants the UK to collapse into confusion to sweep away the social democratic idea entirely but I think its simpler .
    I think he doesn`t care what he makes as long as it is a big . A big mess will do as well as a big anything else and his desire are quite simply for the further fame and importance of John Redwood .

    Why can then old not go back to collecting stamps and bowls , its like carrying a wrinkled prattling money on your back forever and its cannot be born

    TINA Corbyn it must be

    Reply Yes there are straightforward ways of dealing with this set out in the recent publications. Your personal abuse of me is no substitute for sensible comments

    1. Gary C
      October 11, 2017

      “The magic N Ireland border that is open and shut does not exist and a border through which you can freely pass by the magic of electronic gadgets as yet uninvented is ridiculous.”

      Really, there are already systems out there to enable free movement of traffic through toll roads that could easily be adapted for this purpose.

      It is often easier to find several reasons to stand back and do nothing (remainer thinking) than it is to find a solution which may take a little effort.

    2. Richard1
      October 11, 2017

      Certainly this incoherent abuse indicates the paucity of your arguments. Equivalence in Insurance may not be recognised by EU authorities, though presumably the UK could unilaterally recognise EU insurers for UK consumers. If so that will be the same as any other trading restriction put up by the EU, tariffs etc. It’s up to them.

      1. J Melford
        October 12, 2017

        The EU (and the UK) is supposedly signed up to the WTO which stands for
        * stability of the trading system
        * rules waivers to get round short term difficulties
        * mutually beneficial free trade
        * trade liberalisation and removal of barriers
        * stopping measures that are really disguised barriers to trade
        * regional unions being there to boost trade between members, but not to create adverse effects on non-members.
        * a Trade Facilitation Agreement to consider matters like customs cooperation.

    3. Duncan
      October 11, 2017

      Corbyn? Oh, dear. Most traditional Labour voters are vehemently anti-EU and I mean vehemently. If Corbyn ever gets near the doors of No.10 this country will collapse into economic and financial chaos

      The man’s a danger to the UK and its people

      1. Brownowl
        October 11, 2017

        Besides which, most of Corbyn’s declared aims are actually illegal under EU law, and in order to implement them (nationalisation etc.) he would be FORCED to leave the EU.

        I’ve found elsewhere that it’s best to ignore newmania as he is somewhat hard-of-thinking.

        1. Helena
          October 11, 2017

          So how come so much industry in France is state-owned then?
          Put another way, your post is ill-informed rubbish.

          1. a-tracy
            October 12, 2017

            France the Politics of state ownership, interesting article

          2. libertarian
            October 12, 2017


            Not for the first time showing your ignorance of all things business and economy

            The EU does NOT stop you nationalising an industry ( as in France with cars, energy tobacco etc) what it does do however is mandate that ALL industries must be open to competition from other member states and that my dear deluded friend is why Corbyn will not be able to do what he wants to do

            Do keep up and at least know the rules of a club you rabidly want to belong to

      2. Iain Gill
        October 11, 2017

        most traditional labour voters are vehemently in favour of massive reductions in immigration. there is a massive gap between them and their leaders who have branded them variously bigots and worse, and done all that they could to “rub their noses in diversity”.

        but then the conservative party leadership have a similar problem with their voters.

    4. Edward2
      October 11, 2017

      “Electronic gadgets yet to be invented”
      Dartford crossing
      Midland toll road
      All French motorways.

      1. PaulDirac
        October 11, 2017

        And the largest: London congestion charge zone

    5. Sir Joe Soap
      October 11, 2017

      In abusing you, Mr Redwood, he is abusing at least 52% of the population, perhaps slightly more as Mr Hunt would now vote Leave, along with many others I suspect. Don’t take it personally.

      1. sm
        October 11, 2017

        I do not understand why Newmania’s offensive personal rants are still permitted here.

        I’m totally in favour of rational discussion and the presentation of differing views, but I do not see why this site should be a forum for abuse.

      2. Hope
        October 11, 2017

        JR, May does not have a mandate for keeping us in the EU beyond 19/03/2019. Could you tell me if she has the legal authority to do so. Parliament voted leave on this date. By remaining under ECJ and EU rules the Uk has not left. Therefore any transition should not be as a free democratic sovereign nation. I she acting without a mandate and illegally?

        May and Green both want to remain in the EU which is contrary to govt policy! Their policy! Despite this obvious stupidity of their interviews yesterday they will get to vote on the deal they achieve, does this not strike you that their heart is not in it and will try to get EU light as we heard in her Florence speech? Aided by Hammond and the BoE. There can be little doubt in anyone’s mind she is trying for EU light/association. No wonder the remainers heralded her Florence speech.

        Did it not strike you as odd that she and her cabinet of remainers wanted to lead a policy that none of them believe in and still do not, according to their interviews yesterday. Based on their response there cannot be any confidence in her reaching a deal for the U.K. that provides making a clean break from the EU. We voted for our own courts, laws, borders and money. Anyone wishing to stay beyond March 2019 accepts our laws, courts, borders etc or leave back to their country of origin. There cannot be any jurisdiction from a foreign court or legal system over anyone in this country. If there is the UK has not left the EU which parliament voted for.

        1. cornishstu
          October 11, 2017

          I agree entirely with your comment what is also of concern is what dodgy back room dealings are being done with respect to our armed forces and the EU’s ambitions of it’s own forces. I am afraid I do not trust May and her government any further than I could throw them.

      3. DaveM
        October 11, 2017

        Indeed – the first and last resort of the Newmaniacs: if you have no coherent argument (which is most of the time), shout really loudly and resort to personal abuse.

        And make sure to litter your written comments with typos, bad grammar, and bad spelling.

      4. Lifelogic
        October 11, 2017

        Far more than 52% now surely. Especially given the now very clear single country/single currency/anti-democratic agenda of the EU and the proof that the Osborne economic threats and government propaganda was all complete and utter lies & drivel.

        1. Newmania
          October 11, 2017

          Lifelogic – The latest Poll I have seen was published in the Independent and had Remain ahead 52% to 48% .
          The strength of the British economy within the EU was hardly a Leave point (unless you wish to make it one) and Mr Redwood has himself eloquently made the point on two recent occasions that political subjugation by the form of democracy is not democracy
          Of course he meant to discuss Catalonia but ,as he often does with my more thoughtful comments did not publish my post.
          Let us not forget Leave promised an outright increase in prosperity day one , they did it on a bus and whilst we might scoff at anyone so stupid as to believe it, the fact is they did.
          As we speak Brexit spending is astronomical, thousands of civils servants trade experts legal bills, I dread to think ( some figures would be nice ) Hammond is called on to spend billions on a no deal disaster whilst filling a further black hole post Brexit the treasury have been prevented form publishing . No-one voted for this !

          Our further borrowing will be paid by the young who did not vote for this at all .

          Honestly Lifelogic. I don’t begrudge you your hobbies but what about learning to Tango or joining a Pétanque club ……. , you might actually be good at it ( unlikely though that seems )

          1. Lifelogic
            October 11, 2017

            I prefer speculating on business, technology or property far more fun and indeed lucrative.

          2. Richard1
            October 11, 2017

            We have not reached Day One of Brexit as we are still in. you are certainly right the bus was misleading. But i’ve never heard of anyone stupid enough to have believed its promise – only Continuity Remain asserting that that’s why people voted to Leave. It was a low point – as were the Remain forecasts of: an immediate recession: 1/2 million more unemployed; a collapse in foreign investment; an increase in interest rates and a fall in the stock market. they got the currency sort of right but that had started before the referendum and may be as much down to monetary policy.

            The odd thing in the referendum – and with your comments – is all remain supporters point to as good about the EU is free trade, which the Govt are attempting to preserve. Why not praise the CAP, the CFP, the payments, the Euro, the unlimited immigration, the rule of the ECJ etc? its very confusing!

          3. Anonymous
            October 11, 2017

            The latest poll was a general election in which the only Remain party got stiffed and its leader lost his seat.

            Unlike yours, my poll of choice has some empirical value.

          4. libertarian
            October 11, 2017
          5. libertarian
            October 11, 2017


            Hows the 3,000,000 lost jobs, all the banks moving to Paris, no EU army working out for you? Oh it was all bs….

            The EU is a dead duck, more and more will want to leave

          6. Anonymous
            October 11, 2017

            The young did not vote. Well they should have then.

    6. NickC
      October 11, 2017

      Newmania, The USA and the EU reached an agreement on insurance and re-insurance regulation in Jan 2017 which takes into account even the differing regulatory regimes of US states.

      According to the negotiators, U.S. and EU insurers operating in the other market will only be subject to oversight by the regulators in their home jurisdiction, though critical information (eg solvency data, for Solvency 2) will be exchanged between regulators.

      That agreement can be used as a model for when the UK becomes a third country just as the USA already is. I think you can be confident that as Lloyd’s of London were involved, the syndicates know what is needed.

      The problems you highlight are real. But they can be overcome, as you see.

      1. Newmania
        October 11, 2017

        Are you referring to the trade deal which has thus far not been agreed and looks to be many more years away between the world’s two largest economies?
        Excuse me if I regard your knowledge of what may be agreed years from now in a document that does not concern us as less than perfect ,and far from relevant
        There is zero chance of a pip squeak country like the UK getting the same sort of deal as the EU ( the fact Redwood called it an “opportunity” should have alerted you to the problem
        Unless we can piggy back on the EU we are stuffed , I only wish I could find the desperation to copy hates EU trading arrangements funny

        All protectionist problems can be solved but only with the political clout and financial mass we have chosen to do without . If it was easy protectionism would not happen. In fact it is on the rise and no-one is fooled by the UK`s claim to be a champion of Free Trade. The UK is a champion of its own interests and needs access.
        For that it will have to pay and if anyone thinks the US is going to do us any favours they should watch the news a little more closely ( See Bombadier ) .

        A day rarely passes without Redwood imperilling all our futures by threatening a trade war no-one asked for and no-one voted for

        Well it loosmas if he will have his way and we will be poorer still .

        Remind yourself of this , none of this was necessary . None of it

      2. formula57
        October 11, 2017

        Thanks NickC: most helpful.

        It occurs to me that the Europeans who are winding-up Newmania with their mischievious questions are very naughty indeed for they likely know the true position and what may have started out as harmless banter seems to have been overplayed such that it might lead neurotic persons (doubtless weaker souls than Newmania) to become quite distressed and lose perspective. Poor lambs!

    7. Ed Mahony
      October 11, 2017

      Fair play to Mr Redwood. He allows all kinds of criticism on his website. So many people i come across (including myself!) are too precious to allow that kind of thing. I really like Mr Redwood although i disagree with him about Europe (although I think he’s right about a lot as well).

    8. libertarian
      October 11, 2017


      Youre a dribbling fool. Equivalence isn’t recognised currently in the primary insurance market only. Most of the people i talk to in the city see this as the preferred option in the long term

      It will happen

    9. libertarian
      October 11, 2017


      “The magic N Ireland border that is open and shut does not exist and a border through which you can freely pass by the magic of electronic gadgets as yet uninvented is ridiculous”

      You are dim and obviously dont get out much

      Read about the border between non EU Norway and EU Sweden

    10. Linda Jones
      October 11, 2017

      It is amazing how comments that are completely incomprehensible get to be included. Who on earth is this ”Newmania”? Whoever it is, they have nothing of sense to impart.

    11. Miss Brandreth-Jones
      October 12, 2017

      To be quite honest what most commentors say ,and you yourself Newmania, contain an element of truth. The problem is extremes of expression and personal thoughts which flit through the minds of those writing and are then incorporated into the comment.We can also see the pen strutting, the controlled writing , the anecdotal evidence and the more academic references ( which incidentally, because they have been formalised does not necessarily chime with facts and truth).. yet cool it! I save my personal abuse for shouting at the radio or commenting loudly to the air in the car, then sweetly try to be more diplomatic. It is not a competition between us , It is about the prosperity and self rule of our nations.

  2. Peter VAN LEEUWEN
    October 11, 2017

    Interesting . . . so how is the UK stopping not-recognized trader lorries when there will be no border? By drones? Immigrants heading to the north are advised to use recognized trader lorries, for which a list can be provided on internet. In summary, it may not all be so straight forward as portrayed here. Let’s see what the experts say at the end of this week.

    1. Dave Andrews
      October 11, 2017

      The non-recognised traders would be the local exempt business. Any global company using RoI because of its low tax will play by the rules, as they don’t want to find themselves in trouble with the law. The same will be true for the rest of the UK trading with RoI.
      Immigrants can currently go through the border unchallenged, but they don’t. That situation won’t change.

    2. Richard1
      October 11, 2017

      Presumably rather like the Sanef tolls on French motorways. If your number is recognised the gate opens, requiring you on,y to slow down, if not it stays shut. We should use these for future road building in the UK also incidentally.

    3. Ian Wragg
      October 11, 2017

      Your getting more shrill by the day. As it looks like we won’t roll over and pay £billions your paymasters must be starting to panic.
      I don’t think Hammond is going to prepater for a no deal situation as he is actively trying to derail Brexit.
      I listened to (Clegg ed) on Radio 2 yesterday. Why do the BBC think anyone is interested in his opinion.

    4. Tabulazero
      October 11, 2017

      @Peter VAN LEEUWEN

      That Northern Ireland will be a smuggler paradise. Also, Mr Redwood fails to address how diverging standards will be addressed.

      The further away the UK drift from the Single-Market/Custom Union the more checks there will be at the border.

      Simple but it is easier to blame Johny Foreigner and the EU than admit it.

      1. libertarian
        October 11, 2017


        Yeh because no one in the EU ever buys products from a country outside the single market do they…. jeez you people are dumb

    5. alan jutson
      October 11, 2017


      You make some sensible points and comments, I guess that the suggestion of no hard border will be for registered traders until they are found out to be circumventing the agreement under which they have been given permission to operate.

      I guess alongside the open borders there will be the usual barrier type of border that non registered traders and single use vehicles will be stopped and checked.

      The EU seem to think this is a UK problem and solution, when it is also one for them as well, perhaps they had better put their thinking caps on as well, otherwise we would simply have to implement our plans and the EU theirs (which could be very different in nature and action) leading to chaos.

      We are absolutely correct to plan for a no deal, it should have started at the outset.

      Afraid its the EU that does not want to talk about such matters, not the UK.

      One thing for sure, all talks/negotiation need to be absolutely finalised before we officially leave in March 2019, because by then we are no longer in the EU and EU rules should not apply.

      1. alan jutson
        October 11, 2017

        Another solution would be for Southern Ireland to leave the EU, then its a simple UK and Ireland solution not complicated by 26 other Countries.

        1. ian wragg
          October 11, 2017

          When the EU forces Ireland to increase corporation tax to 25% they will gladly leave the EU.

    6. Border Post
      October 11, 2017

      Your Comments give one the impression you wish every single move for the UK in leaving the EU to fail! Why? From your own perspective the EU will be better off without us. Have a good time and enjoy! 🙂
      By the way, we do seem to have managed the border with Ireland very well for many decades when the EU was just a gleam in its daddy jackal’s eye. We’ll manage 🙂

      1. Peter VAN LEEUWEN
        October 11, 2017

        @Border Post:
        I don’t want a solution for Ireland to fail! I’d recommend any and all serious efforts towards a solution (having family in N. Ireland for one), but you cab read quite a few concerned comments in the press. I’m just a spectator and I happen to have confidence in the EU27 side of the negotiations (which ought not to surprise you).

        1. Border Post
          October 11, 2017

          @Peter VAN LEEUWEN
          “confidence in the EU 27 side” At any given point one or more of the 27 will have a contrary view to the one it expressed previously, . This is the ever-changing face of democracy. You have confidence that the view is static and right, not subject to a change to wrong at any given point! that cannot be predicted by anyone on Earth. You have Faith indeed. But rumour has it, the EU is a false God

        2. Capt Mannering
          October 11, 2017

          I fail to see what you having family in Northern Ireland has to do with anything. Who on Earth has told you or convinced you to worry? If in doubt, tell them to hide in an attic, keep very quiet indeed, write a diary, very important, and when the British Storm Troopers come and find them you will no doubt profit from the sale of their diary, to be frank.

      2. bigneil
        October 11, 2017

        If the EU was to be better off without us they would have given up on us years ago, but with £55m a day rolling in – and the chance of keeping us in for ever meaning annual, if not monthly increases, they’ll put up with us for as long as they can screw us to the wall. We are already seeing cuts to the Navy, the Police, council services etc, yet thousands of extra burdens roll in weekly for the taxpayer to keep. One day there will be nothing left to cut. It is getting closer by the day.

    7. Bert Young
      October 11, 2017

      PvL . We are moving on – a bit too slowly for my liking . How are things in Holland and your election ? . Best regards .

      1. Peter VAN LEEUWEN
        October 11, 2017

        @Bert Young:
        In yesterday’s 80 page declaration by the new government (being formed today after 208 days of talks, a record!) I see only 3 sentences with the word Brexit in it:
        -about improving crisis resilience of the Dutch agriculture sector
        -supporting Dutch fishing interests, animal welfare and an equal playing field in Europe and beyond (trade treaties)
        -to promote EU unity during the negotiations.

        I hope that the (rather conservative) new Dutch government will support ideas to let a free and independent UK (after Brexit) link on to an to be created outer ring of a to be reformed EU, providing for free trade (and opt-ins) without political union in that outer ring. We might in the end get to a working relationship which would satisfy both the original 52% as well as the (2016) 48%, which many brexiteers wish to believe has now shriveled up or disappeared. Not quite the view from the continent though.

      2. formula57
        October 11, 2017

        Holland has a much different attitude to democracy, referendums and the Evil Empire than we do though, evidenced by the Senate there approving the EU-Ukraine free trade and association agreement (in May 2017) despite that being rejected by the Dutch people in a referendum (in April 2016).

        1. Peter VAN LEEUWEN
          October 11, 2017

          @formula57: The ADVISORY referendum law proved so bad that the new government will now even abolish it completely. Only one more national referendum to go, on a new Dutch “big data” law.
          I agree with this termination – referendums are ok for proposed mayors or local issues. The way they were used like in the Ukraine case they proved to be the instrument of demagogues and populists selling untrue one-liners about complex issues.

          1. James Matthews
            October 11, 2017

            ” demagogues and populists selling untrue one-liners about complex issues”.

            Yes dreadful aren’t they? And strangely the only criteria for being in that category is that the person deciding that someone should be included disapproves of their opinions.

            Another pair of once useful terms devalued by misuse.

          2. Nig l
            October 11, 2017

            So Dutch people are too stupid to see through demagogues and populists, well that is just a perjorative word dreamt up by the liberal elites because they consider their views superior to the ordinary voter, who must not be given s chance to do anything other than the ruling classes want.

            I consider myself a populist and so must be the many people who I know voted the same. Please do not insult me by
            suggesting that because I disagree with you I cannot be
            considered your equal.

            Of course your government and you want to take away your peoples right of dissent because you are in a vassal state of Germany benefitting from their economic hegemony and woe betide anyone who wants to upset that cosy arrangement, hence your view of the U.K.

            What Mutti wants, she must have. Who cares about the massive problems her migrant policy has cost or the despair she has caused in countries like Greece as long as you in Northern Europe are ok.

            Congratulations peter your view on democracy echoed through the halls of Brussels continues to confirm our decision to leave was the correct one.

          3. NickC
            October 11, 2017

            PvL, So you don’t like democracy because it gives the “wrong” answers? No wonder you are an EU sycophant.

    8. Sir Joe Soap
      October 11, 2017

      You’ve heard of Congestion zones which use number-plate recognition systems? Think about using those, which would filter recognised from not recognised lorries.

      Bring back the spirit of your compatriot van der Waals, a Dutch scientist who could think for himself.

    9. fedupsoutherner
      October 11, 2017

      PVL With your usual nasty comments and those of newrmania is it any wonder the UK wants to distance itself from the EU? If the UK were to go under I think it would affect not only us but a great many others in the world in many different ways. Think about it.

      1. Peter VAN LEEUWEN
        October 11, 2017

        @fedupsoutherner: What is nasty about today’s comment?

        1. fedupsoutherner
          October 11, 2017

          YOur comments are always sarcastic and full of glee thinking that the Uk will be a failed country out of the EU. You dont’ have to be Einstein to see that. Do you ever see anything positive in the UK?

    10. NickC
      October 11, 2017

      PvL, There is a problem of illegal migrants and (modern) slavery now, whilst we are in the EU. How will that be different when we are out?

      You still seem to overlook the fact that both Ireland and Great Britain are islands. Whatever controls we use are a) none of your business when we become independent; b) are needed whether we are in or out of the EU.

      There are real problems to the UK becoming independent. But they are not show-stoppers.

      1. Peter VAN LEEUWEN
        October 11, 2017

        @NickC: Actually, the Republic of Ireland is a much valued EU27 member now, not a British colony anymore.

        1. James Matthews
          October 11, 2017

          Well as the Republic is now a net contributor to the EU budget I guess it should be valued.

          You are (almost) right. Southern Ireland has not been part of the United Kingdom for nearly a century and has not even resembled a colony for two centuries. etc ed

          Consequently many of us are baffled as to why both the EU and the Irish Government still seem to think that we have some sort of special responsibility to take its interests into account.

        2. oldtimer
          October 11, 2017

          it was never a colony.

        3. NickC
          October 11, 2017

          PvL, Who said Eire was a British colony? Not me. You are imagining things, as usual.

    11. libertarian
      October 11, 2017

      Peter vL

      It never ceases to surprise me that the ardent remainers are the people with the least understanding of the modern world. I guess its what comes of being locked into a backward looking, out of date , failing protectionist market

    12. PaulDirac
      October 11, 2017

      This is an internal UK problem, get off.

  3. Mick
    October 11, 2017
    How can we trust the PM to get us out of the eu when she’s surrounded by remoaners like Green Rudd Hammond
    As for the boarders after we do eventually leave the dreaded eu we can install any measures we want to keep people out

  4. Roy Grainger
    October 11, 2017

    In May’s last meeting with business leaders a few days ago she told them in no uncertain terms there WOULD be a two year implementation period and they should make all their plans on that basis. I assume she must have cleared this with the EU.

    I see Hammond says he’s not going to fund preparations for No Deal ? No surprise there.

    1. John Soper
      October 11, 2017

      I have learned that business leaders have advised Mrs May that without a long transition, they are off to the EU-27. Mrs May knows Redwood’s ideas are poison. But she daren’t say so, or else her party would explode

      1. NickC
        October 12, 2017

        Yes, I can really see Starbucks selling us coffee from their shop in Brussels.

  5. am
    October 11, 2017

    I feel sorry for the irish but they’ll just have to come up with something for their own good and forget the rest of the eu. They tried to do so with tax so discontent with the eu can but increase in the republic.
    An interesting point during the general election was how to keep may out of the media which is further confirmed by yesterday’s lbc debacle.

  6. Iain Gill
    October 11, 2017

    The. Ferries and planes coming from both parts of Ireland to the mainland UK must have full passport checking then.

    There is no way the most under pressure parts of England can tolerate open immigration via this route

    1. Peter Parsons
      October 11, 2017

      I think you’ll find Unionists (some of whom are currently propping up the current government at a cost of £150,000,000 per vote) may just have rather strong views on this as an idea.

    2. old salt
      October 11, 2017

      If the Irish referendums had not been re-run until the right result was achieved would the now situation be rather different? BTW – when will ours be re-run?

    3. Dave Andrews
      October 11, 2017

      This route is open now, but we hear nothing on the news about it being an immigration problem. It will be no easier after our departure from the EU.

      1. Iain Gill
        October 11, 2017

        “the news” is dominated by what the liberal elite think, and they dont think there is an immigration problem.

        out in the real world the numbers flying into dublin, crossing the land border then getting a ferry to mainland uk are large and out of control

        and out in the real world the people can see the out of control immigration all around them

        the politicians continually promise to fix it, but then of course they dont really mean it, as per ms may and her promise to drop new immigration into the tens of thousands which has not happened (remembering the large amount of illegal immigration they are not counting)

        if you believed “the news” you would think we were all going to vote to stay in the EU

        1. Iain Gill
          October 11, 2017

          new should be net sorry

  7. Helena
    October 11, 2017

    So, no deal means tariffs on imports from the EU, resulting in huge price increases for UK consumers and inflationary pressures within our economy, an economy which will also be hobbled by the loss of preferential access to the EU to which we send almost half of all our exports. Brilliant. Just brilliant.

    1. NickC
      October 11, 2017

      Helena, Not so. Non-EU import prices would not change at EU tariff levels at all, obviously.

      The cost of EU imports might rise, but can be offset by tax or tariff reductions. So a halving of average agricultural tariffs will reduce import prices from the rest of the world. By supply and demand this will reduce our dependence on the EU whilst being neutral overall on prices. What’s not to like?

      The trade-weighted average EU tariff for non-agricultural products was 2.3% in 2014 and 8.5% for agricultural products (source: WTO tariff profiles), where cars are at 10%. In other words the EU sets tariffs to protect Germany’s car industry and French agriculture. That’s not for our benefit.

  8. Loudendijk
    October 11, 2017

    This is some sort of parody, yes? You want the UK to leave the EU, yet have all the borders stay open, carry on trading as if you never left, and steal the advantages of the trade deals with the rest of the world which the EU has painstakingly negotiated over the years. You really cannot be serious. God help the UK if its elected politicians are this far into cloud cuckoo land.

    1. NickC
      October 11, 2017

      Loudendijk, No. It’s not a case of want, we are leaving.

      The UK is offering the EU the same access to the UK, as the UK has access to the EU. No more and no less. If you won’t allow the UK free access to EU markets (as is your right), you can’t expect free access to ours.

      God help the EU if its elected politicians are this far into cloud cuckoo land.

  9. Lifelogic
    October 11, 2017

    Indeed the sooner we leave and adjust our trade to the new regime the better for everyone.

    It is however a shame that May cannot even now say how she would vote in a second referendum in her LBC interview. She even implied she wants to harm UK productivity still further (and augment pointless grievances) by extending gender pay gap reporting to ethnicity pay gap reporting. She really is a dire, soft socialist and ex(?) remainer who will almost certainly lose the next election – if allowed too.

    A great shame that Ian Dale did not ask her why she felt happy to lie to the public (in order to try to trick them into a remain vote). “We have control of out borders through Schengen” she said, she could not possibly have believed this could she?

    Meanwhile Hammond still does not want even now to prepare for Brexit. May also said she wanted to help tenants. So will she tell Hammond to get rid of the extra 3% stamp duty and the taxation of non profits for landlords (both tenant taxes) that push tenants rents up by up to 20% and diminish supply of properties to rent.

  10. Caterpillar
    October 11, 2017

    Whilst I agree with the general direction of comments, it would be nice to publicly see much more evidence of the regulatory, technological and structural infrastructure going in and for a very public timeline so that the media channels can report on each step being ticked off. Obviously timeline should deliver a few months before UK leaves. (I guess this is all in place and we just don’t get to see the simplified summary).

    1. Caterpillar
      October 11, 2017

      Though of course Hammond will block expenditure on anything needed …

  11. Peter
    October 11, 2017

    I could not agree more with most of your last paragraph.

    I am not sure the EU are that concerned about overplaying their hand though. I suspect they never had any real interest in reaching a deal on trade.

  12. Nig l
    October 11, 2017

    You need to speak to the head of the Dover docks and harbour board who was whingeing yesterday that no one told him anything, even a small delay would mean vast lorry tail backs, there is no land or money for lorry parks, he would need hundreds more officers and a new computer system is being introduced right in the middle of everything else.

    On an adjacent tack I think the Thunderer is reporting that Hammond is refusing to commit any money until he knows what is happening being ‘realistic’ so there’s the next potential delaying tactic, we need more time to build the necessary infrastructure. Damian Green hardly covered himself in glory last night on Newsnight.

    A triumvirate of Remainers at the top of a Leave government. It’s tosh. I do not know the internal cabinet politics, does she have enough power, but moving Hammond on in the next reshuffle would do wonders for her external credibility and therefore rating. Gove has done his penance and would be the equivalent of Alexander the Great dealing with the Gordion Knot of the Treasury, unless they hobbled him as well.

    Finally as businessman used to deals, please remind the PM that to keep giving away as a sign of good faith is seen by the other side as weakness, and they are and will, play that, hence their delaying tactics.

  13. Richard1
    October 11, 2017

    Mr Hammond has said he will only spend money on no deal “when it is responsible to do so”. I hope that point is recognised if and when the EU says at the end of Oct that it will not proceed with trade discussions. Only by clearly preparing for no deal is there any chance of a good agreement, or probably any agreement, in the end. The money will be well spent even if we don’t eventually need customs checks etc.

  14. agricola
    October 11, 2017

    The EU is playing the dominatrix, too stupid to realise that any pain inflicted is multiplied and reciprocal. Their industries and workers therein are not into masochism, and will wake up to the fact.

  15. Stephen Reid
    October 11, 2017

    “Maybe then the EU will see they have overplayed their intrinsically weak hand.”

    In that case I’m glad, very glad, I’m not your Bridge partner Mr Redwood. Much as there is sadness the UK is leaving within the EU there is little sense that the UK ‘holds all the cards’. Rather an impression of a confused and divided country, somewhat adrift, that having chosen to leave appears to have done little serious thinking about the consequences. An impression only strengthened by your reflections on the possible consequences for the Irish border.

    1. NickC
      October 11, 2017

      Stephen, Can you supply evidence that there is any significant “sadness the UK is leaving within the EU” rather than the hostility and blackmail that I see?

      1. Stephen Reid
        October 11, 2017

        NickC. I live in the Netherlands, where the UK has been seen as an historical ally and an important trading partner. The initial response here was disbelief and sadness, swiftly followed by concern about the fallout for the Dutch economy. The sadness is slowly turning to irritation, I’ll grant you, but ‘hostility and blackmail’……no.

        The Germans similarly didn’t want Britain to go, why else would Der Spiegel run a cover like this:×773.jpg

  16. Peter Franke
    October 11, 2017

    No deal is the best deal for Britain. No more paying billions of pounds to the corrupt, undemocratic and completely incompetent EU bureaucracy. No more stupid rules mostly designed to be anti British. No more appalling fisheries and agricultural policies. Freedom at last.

    1. Stephen Reid
      October 11, 2017

      Thanks for the sloganeering. Now how about a view the Irish border issue? Cheers.

      1. James Matthews
        October 11, 2017

        And how about some evidence of “significant sadness

  17. Michael
    October 11, 2017

    The PM is becoming a bit wobbly on BREXIT. Our friend Hammond seems to be a law unto himself.

    On our own current plan we will not have left the EU until the ECJ ceases to have jurisdiction over us possibly in March 2021. Last month we expected that date to be March 2019.

    When you add the EU’s clever negotiating strategy into the mix will we ever leave?

  18. Tabulazero
    October 11, 2017

    You are 18 months from a hard Brexit and all the UK government has to show is a white paper.

    It’s one thing to say that “most of our trade will be notified in advance of the truck or container reaching our port”. It’s another to have the IT Infrastructure and the staff in place to handle that.

    On that last front, very little progress has been made.

    1. NickC
      October 11, 2017

      Tabulazero, You have made a simple point correctly. I stand amazed. Yes, we have a weak and incompetent government riddled with careerists and Remains. Our civil service is determined to undermine our democratic choice. We have forgotten to behave as an independent country.

      Set against that, the EU is nasty confection of a corruption and oligarchy with elements of fascism in its interactions with big corporates. The EU’s policies of open borders for criminals and terrorists, dodgy banks, sovereign debt dependency upon ECB QE, mass unemployment in the south, and hostility to the UK, is not a recipe for success. The whole EU is in a mess and seems to hate its own people.

    2. libertarian
      October 11, 2017


      Yeh because nobody and no goods enter the UK from anywhere outside the EU at the moment do they…. dumber and dumber

    3. Edward2
      October 11, 2017

      Its just an extension of what happens now for goods arriving from non EU nations.

  19. Fed Up and Angry
    October 11, 2017

    Apparently the Chancellor, Philip Hammond is refusing to fund any planning for a ‘No Deal’. At what point to Conservatives actually put the country first (rather than party) and remove this quisling and give us a government that believes in Brexit.

    If the Conservative party betrays the Brexit vote, then it will be wiped out Lib Dem style at the next election. People will be so angry, they’ll be past caring whether Corbyn gets in – in fact maybe they’ll welcome it just to see the establishment get its just reward.

    1. Leslie Singleton
      October 11, 2017

      Dear Fed Up–Unfortunately you are right–I have gone from, some years back, posting as Truebluechap to agreeing with you that I shall soon be past caring whether Corbyn gets in. I wake up each morning hoping that May or Hammond or preferably both have gone. Apparently I am not as scared about another Election as I should be but Provided the Manifesto says something like the opposite of the previous effort it will be all right. Corbyn did NOT win or even do well–May did appallingly badly and scared the horses–There’s a difference.

  20. Peter Lavington
    October 11, 2017

    John – could you sometime write a column explaining in simple terms exactly what tariffs are and how they operate. I’d like to know who actually gets the money and roughly how much it is. As I understand it, the EU takes all the tariff money now but presumably UK will keep it after Brexit. Would it be the case that the infamous £350m could easily be achieved with a fair bit left to subsidise exporters. If this is the case, in pure monetary terms a ‘no deal’ would be the best thing that could happen?

    1. NickC
      October 11, 2017

      Peter, The £350m pw is simply the total gross bill of £18bn/year divided by the number of weeks. There is nothing “infamous” about it. Only a few Remains try to make it controversial.

      The UK, in the EU, collects tariff money on all imports into the UK from the rest of the world. The UK then remits 80% of that to Brussels, since the EU allows the cost of collection (20%).

      The trade-weighted average EU tariff for non-agricultural products was 2.3% in 2014 and 8.5% for agricultural products (source: WTO tariff profiles), where cars are at 10%. In other words the EU sets tariffs to protect Germany’s car industry and French agriculture.

      The “No deal” is actually the WTO deal.

      1. Augustyn
        October 11, 2017

        Thanks to Nick C. for the clarification. To clarify further does it mean the 80% of tarrifs on 3rd country imports is included in the £18 billion remitted to the EU currently? Were it not to be the case then the 80% of the tarrifs would presumably be an additional income to the uK Treasury.

  21. Duncan
    October 11, 2017

    The biggest threat to Brexit is May, Hammond and the British (Un)Civil Service. It is incumbent on all decent Tory MP’s who believe in British democracy, British sovereignty and this country’s independence to confront these significant threats

    You expect treachery from the Marxist rabble but surely not from the Tories? Time for the Queen to step in and sort out this rabble on the Govt benches

  22. Nig l
    October 11, 2017

    Ps a further thought, Hammond’s position undermines the PM and deliberately strengthens the EU’s. On the basis that deal/no deal looks 50/50 wouldn’t you spend some money and get a no deal budgeted.

    If Hammond had been chancellor of the e in 1938 he would have refused money to re arm because Chamberlain had a signed piece of paper.

    TM now has the reason to sack him.

    1. Doug Powell
      October 11, 2017

      What is the PM’s position? After yesterday’s debacle at LBC, one wonders?

      Monday’s performance, on the face of it, apart from the sell out on ECJ supremacy during the implementation stage, seemed assured. However, on deeper reflection it is obvious that her performance was simply scripted to counter the scripted (obvious) questions from robotic opposition members, therefore no need for spontaneity.

      Her failure to recognise the albeit loaded question at LBC has raised serious doubts about her suitability to lead Brexit. – Inability to think on her feet, and a total lack of passion for the cause.

      The answer was simple: “I am 100% committed to Brexit!” Not the meaningless waffle we were subjected to!

      If the PM ever commented on this site, she would be stumped on how to fill in:
      “I am not a Robot”

    2. Lifelogic
      October 11, 2017

      He was never the right person for the job. Anyone who thinks as he does over the EU, killing the gig economy, likes 15% stamp duty turnover taxes and taxes on non existent profits are a good plan is clearly an economic illiterate. He is a tax borrow and piss down the drain EUphile. He even thinks HS2, tax payer subsidies for unreliable and expensive renewables, 40% IHT over £325K and Hinkley C make sense!

      What more does she need to sack him? Preferably before he delivers another hugely damaging budget.

      1. Iain Gill
        October 11, 2017

        he is doing all that he can to kill the jobs market for locals and make it easier to import ever more cheap workers from ever more places abroad.

        exactly the opposite of what the british people want.

        he should be laughed out of office with his boss ms may…

    3. stred
      October 11, 2017

      Could someone explain why planning for a WTO customs is so expensive that the Treasury cannot afford it. The civil service seems to be spending a lot of time planning to commit huge expenditure to the EU for the next four years. Could we not sack this pro-EU office of Remainers and find some civil servants that are in favour of keeping promises made in the referendum. We already have number plate recognition cameras all over roads and have to inspect loads coming in from the rest of the world. Surely, Mr Hammond is just making excuses, as he is planning for a reverse of Brexit and sees no need to waste money or time on it.

      Perhaps Mrs May could use her improved mental health services to obtain some psychological counselling in order to come to terms with her schizophrenic position on leaving but not really wanting to do what she said.

  23. Bob
    October 11, 2017

    We need to rebalance the Cabinet with people who, in Theresa May’s own words “believe in Brexit”. Hammond, Green and May certainly don’t fall into that category.

    At least Mr Cameron finally admitted he couldn’t deliver something he didn’t support, despite his previous pronouncements to the contrary.

    1. formula57
      October 11, 2017

      Mr. Cameron could not deliver something he could support either!

  24. Bert Young
    October 11, 2017

    The necessary detail of dealing with imports post Brexit is a tricky affair and will no doubt be subject to a suck it and see situation . Unchecked lorries – however approved beforehand , may well hide undesirable contents ; this situation would be unacceptable . The basis of a NAFTA or some other arrangement with world markets is very attractive ; the size and potential of such alternatives would be as big or bigger than anything with the EU .

    John is right to continue to support and publish the advantages of what our lives will be like after freeing ourselves from EU bureaucracy ; the more he says the better .

  25. Brian Tomkinson
    October 11, 2017

    I see that Hammond is, as we have come to expect, not acting for the prospect of no deal. No doubt he is still working on the basis that if he can drag this out long enough the result of the referendum can be overturned.

    1. Peter
      October 11, 2017

      Brian, that is exactly what I thought. Hammond should go.

    2. Iain Moore
      October 11, 2017

      Though Hammond has undermined May’s stance on a no deal by refusing to fund it, oddly I don’t hear any clamor for his sacking as they did with Boris.

  26. percy openshaw
    October 11, 2017

    Are you happy with Mrs May’s latest lurch to the left over the issue of “racism”, Mr Redwood? Or her failure to support the idea of Brexit on the radio? Or her continued failure to woo the elderly with triple locks and guaranteed care? No? I thought not. So why continue to support this rotting morsel of driftwood? You should install Boris or Gove in her place as soon as possible. The Conservative party at present risks falling between two stools – its core, who are disgusted and the metropolitan centrist, who hate it; and unless something is done, it will fall very heavily, too – at a time when Labour is under the control of dangerous fanatics. All this is directly the fault of our wretched PM and you have got to stop her – fast. Our patience is running out.

  27. Prigger
    October 11, 2017

    We should prepare for No Deal. It is a possible outcome. If that be the result, it will allow us to make comprehensive trade deals with non-EU countries. Deals that do not necessarily make accommodation for certain understandings on food imports and other items from EU nation states which we might have agreed with a proper EU/UK deal. The EU will find that NO Deal means far more bad news for them than they anticipated.They deserve bad news. We do not need eggs and flowers from Holland, nor in this day and age vegetables from France. Its supermarket priced wines are inferior to many other countries’ wines anyway. The greatest casualty however could be the Republic of Ireland. We can get most items they produce for us cheaper elsewhere…and all round the climactic clock, We should be doing far more trade with African countries.

  28. Christine
    October 11, 2017

    We already trade with the rest of the world so already have processes in place to deal with imports. Just look around your local supermarkets. Mine even had onions from Australia last week. I think this whole thing is being blow out of proportion. We have a great advantage in that we have many ports that can trade easily with the rest of the world if the EU countries choose to be awkward.

  29. fedupsoutherner
    October 11, 2017

    Once again John, a great post. I am sick of people being so blatantly rude to you when you give up so much time and effort for anyone wishing to read your posts. They are informative and well thought out and I for one and I know others regard your efforts in high esteem. Thank you.

    1. NickC
      October 11, 2017

      Yes indeed. JR, I admire your willingness to openly provide a platform for discussion, and all the time and hard work you devote to it. Thank you.

    2. Soft Brexit
      October 11, 2017

      They may be informative, but only as evidence of how little Mr Redwood understands the economic consequences of the path he advocates.

      1. Augustyn
        October 11, 2017

        There may just be short term financial costs in leaving the EU. But do please try and understand there are also very long term benefits in not being dominated by an organisation disconnected from the electorates whose agenda is driven by a very few nation states. It is not all about money – determining your own future is more important than that.

    3. Miss Brandreth-Jones
      October 12, 2017

      I agree but in the knowledge that John believes in freedom of speech, Freedom is a “heady thing” he says and the reaction from readers makes Newmania a devil’s advocate and dear John gets the support in retaliation.

  30. Anonymous
    October 11, 2017

    That Newmania posed as a Tory activist for so long is how we got universal Blairism. A rejection of that is what Brexit is truly about.

    Well done Newmania !!!

    1. Brownowl
      October 11, 2017

      He posts very similar, illiterate drivel on the ConHome site, but it’s generally less personally-directed. Most of us have learned to ignore it, which presumably Mr. Redwood has done as well.

  31. Peter
    October 11, 2017

    Farage, as usual, hits the nail on the head :- “With every week that passes we see May and her government dither and delay over one issue or another, and it is this sense that she is being worn down by her opponents in the EU that I find truly alarming. The fight appears to have gone out of her at the time we need it most.”

    Brexit in name only is still a worrying possibility.

    1. Next
      October 11, 2017

      Farage and UKIP will not be the man nor the organisation which will fight a betrayal of Brexit

  32. Max walker
    October 11, 2017

    Spend on No Deal is simply insurance against a bad outcome. Like all insurance, you’d rather not have to pay but you know you must.

    With a failure to prepare we open ourselves to blackmail and last minute chicanery.

    Hammond must be over-ruled and spending plans announce on 21 Oct 17 – whatever the outcome of the EU Council mtg.

  33. Duncan
    October 11, 2017

    Therese May is not a Conservative. She is a poisonous do-gooding liberal pandering to every leftist issue that political clique chooses to invent

    She will destroy the Tories. She’s taking our party leftwards.

    Please, please get rid before she damages us even further

  34. oldtimer
    October 11, 2017

    The EU will play hard ball right to the end of the leaving process. The idea that there will be a change in approach is fantasy. It will be this way for two reasons. First those in charge in the EU believe that to do otherwise would weaken the EU and all it stands for. Second it has a small army of key supporters inside the UK establishment encouraging it to play hard ball. These supporters evidently includes some in positions that enable them to frustrate preparations for departure, notably the Treasury in the person of the Chancellor, aided and abetted by his senior officials. To them must be added those who will use parliamentary procedure in their attempts to block or neuter measures intended to implement and facilitate Brexit.

    Although, in the interests of self preservation, Conservative MPs do not want a leadership election it may need to come to that unless a timely reshuffle restructures the Cabinet so that the government appoints key Ministers who will actually deliver what it has promised it will deliver.

    1. alan jutson
      October 12, 2017



  35. Alan Bell
    October 11, 2017

    perhaps I could direct your attention to this page

    “The EU has concluded and implemented Mutual Recognition of AEO programmes with Norway, Switzerland, Japan, Andorra, the US and China. Further negotiations are currently taking place or will be launched in the near future with the other most important trading partners. In addition, the EU is providing technical assistance to a number of countries to prepare them to set up AEO programmes.”

    We are not Norway, Switzerland, Japan, Andorra, the US or China, so on day zero our AEO administration will not be recognised with no deal. If we do not have a mutual recognition agreement then we will not mutually recognise the use of it.

    Your plan for a no deal with the EU is to depend heavily on the AEO scheme that we have as a benefit of our membership of the EU.

  36. Mockbeggar
    October 11, 2017

    I’ve been reading Professor Minton’s article about Unilateral Free Trade (UFT) and am impressed.
    Do you, or any of your bloggers have a view on such a strategy?

    1. Search Englejun
      October 11, 2017

      You should print it out for everyone.. I cannot find any reference to the article or the man online via Google nor Bing. Have you a link?

      1. Mockbeggar
        October 12, 2017

        The link is:

        I hope that will find it for you.

        The article is entitled ‘From Project Fear to Project Prosperity An Introduction by Patrick Minford

    2. David Price
      October 12, 2017

      Professor Minford has produced a large number of papers and articles on the subject. I am currently reading “Trading on the Future: Brexit Trade Options and the UK Economy” available on the Politeia website;

      My personal view is that a unilateral free market approach must be accompanied by simplified, flexible tax and regulatory approaches and above all an effective educational and (re)training environment accessible by all ages.

  37. MikeP
    October 11, 2017

    I do hope these and all previously well-argued points John are getting through (officially) to Theresa May, David Davies and our negotiating team. More than that – as I never see anyone credibly refuting your suggestions – it would be a damned shame if they weren’t being acted on as we speak.

  38. Michael O'Sullivan
    October 11, 2017

    The Irish political border created largely by PM Lloyd George in 1922 has been there like a scar across the land for nearly a hundred years- so the Irish government is not going to be complicit now in drawing up another trade or economic border just to suit modern day British Tory or UKIP brexiteers- that’s for sure.

    For a new border system to work- manned or unmanned- would require the recruitment of hundreds if not thousands of new customs officials- and if this new concept were to go wrong because of local protest would require thousands of police to back them up. And we know from recent historical perspective if this were still not acceptable to some elements on either side then the army would be needed to back them all up- just like before. So whatever it is decided to do we should make sure we get it right first time- otherwise?

    1. Stred
      October 11, 2017

      So, support the UK position to continue an open border with lorries presence checked.

  39. Kenneth
    October 11, 2017

    I can understand the need for a balanced cabinet but Mr Hammond’s comments are undermining the UK and are once again going against the spirit of government policy which is an untenable position.

    As he is intent on following his own maverick path, I think it is now time that the Chancellor was replaced.

  40. Beecee
    October 11, 2017

    The media seems to believe that the Government reports to them and that the Prime Minister and her Ministers must appear before them to justify everything. And they do!

    This is a very bad mistake as exemplified by Mrs May falling into the Brexit vote trap yesterday – which of course makes all the headlines today – as a recent stupidity!

    Hammond is also at it today casting doubt on the Prime Minister’s statement to the House yesterday, thus making the Headlines, and giving succour to the EU ‘negotiators’ and Remainers.

    Blair was too scared of Brown to sack him and Mrs May is showing he same timidity with Hammond!

    Blair started this media love-in with his ‘new initiative a week’ as an alternative to policy.

    Why politicians need the oxygen of publicity, regardless of how bad and how poorly they do, is beyond me.

    1. Kenneth
      October 11, 2017

      Government is run by the news media and the biggest player is the BBC – hence the socialist government we now have

  41. LordBlagger
    October 11, 2017

    They need to realise if we leave without a deal we will put in the current EU tariff schedule with the EU outside our border paying the tariffs to comply with WTO rules.


    Just shows why you shouldn’t be near the negotiation.

    We’ve already signed a deal with France, Germany and Ireland etc under WTO rules. That’s a done deal.

    Why would you give away that deal by agreeing to increase tariffs above what they are now?

    WTO is independent from the EU. All Eu countries have signed the deals, not the EU.

    You need to go away and read up what being “bound” means in the WTO parlance.

    Here is how to play it. Tell Ireland we are going to put 1000% tariffs on Irish butter. They take us to the WTO saying its illegal because the UK and Ireland are bound. [Give then written instructions on how to do this]. Go to the WTO, plead guilty, its a fair cop guvnor.

    Now you have case law, and the EU cannot impose any tariffs above those that exist now.

    We can then get deals with the rest of the world, and we are the tunnel that gets through EU protectionism.

  42. Epikouros
    October 11, 2017

    The arguments surrounding Brexit are more about ill informed speculation and fear of shadows than about concentrating on what is known about about what will be the effects of leaving the EU. Based on the evidence that is abundantly available especially about a no deal situation as we can assuredly state we know how that works as we already trade on a third country basis with non EU member countries and we do not find that onerous. We will have complete autonomy to dictate our own affairs without EU restrictions.

    We also know what a Brexit deal that brexiteers want will look like. It will be like a no deal with some mutually agreed special but not binding arrangement on trade, cooperation and the status of expats and Northern Ireland. Also we know what remainers and the EU want. That is no deal that does not leave us subservient to the EU with the continuance of contributions, other burdens and Brussels imposed restrictions that entails.

    1. Dan Blocker
      October 11, 2017

      It is said the EU is afraid of Brexit. From their position they probably are. A successful Brexit with lovely positive economic UK statistics afterwards is the last piece in Marina Le Pen’s political jigsaw. Also the last piece in the picture for the future disintegration of the EU which hopeful will be orderly. We should help those EU-nation states with their leaving with utmost generosity.

  43. David L
    October 11, 2017

    I still don’t understand how this electronic border between NI and the Republic will work. If an unregistered vehicle is driven through will there be no security guards to stop them? Or will the driver/owner receive an e-mail asking them to register after the event?

    I’m told that this leaving process could be so simple, forgive me if experience teaches me that in politics absolutely nothing is simple. Fires and frying pans come to mind.

  44. Original Richard
    October 11, 2017

    “The EU is labouring under various misapprehensions about the UK. It seems to think if it hangs tough the UK will make more generous offers.”

    Unfortunately I think the EU are right.

    Ever since the start of the “negotiations” the UK has been moving backwards., the latest example being Mrs. May’s acceptance of the rule of the ECJ after we technically leave the EU and enter a undefined length of “transition” period even though the EU treaties should no longer apply to us.

    The problem for those who wish the UK to leave the EU is that the most senior figures in government, as well as a majority of the cabinet, are all committed EU supporters, and it is not possible to negotiate with the EU and come to a non-punishment deal if the government is not composed of believers in sovereignty and independence for the UK.

    It looks like the plan is to obtain such a bad deal that a second referendum gives the current government and the EU the answer they want and which will additionally lead to a cancellation of our rebate and the joining of Schengen, the Euro and the EU army.

  45. dennisambler
    October 11, 2017

    For me this is why we need to leave the EU. These processes are on-going and making leaving more difficult the longer it goes on.

    A meeting of the Economic and Financial Affairs Council (ECOFIN) will be held in Luxembourg on 10th October. EU Finance Ministers will discuss the following items:

    The Eurogroup President will brief Ministers on the outcomes of the 9th October meeting of the Eurogroup, and Ministers will discuss the current economic situation. Ministers will also discuss the European Commission’s use of discretion in assessing Member States’ compliance with the preventive arm of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP).

    Current Financial Service Legislative Proposals

    The Council Presidency will provide an update on current legislative proposals in the field of financial services.

    Definitive VAT System

    The Commission will present their proposals for a Definitive VAT system and the creation of a ‘Single EU VAT area’.

    And so on…

  46. Eric Sorensen
    October 11, 2017

    The most important issue for the Junckers is the future Union. Nothing comes close. An amicable deal with the UK will not further the Union and is therefore not desirable. Elderly women in Barcelona are being explained this with rubber bullets. Thus, there are no honest interests in achieving a deal and hence the negotiating in steps to make sure step 1 is never finalised.

    In recent days, Irish and Danish politicians have started asking for improvement by the Commission to ensure that a deal is reached. This is obviously to protect bacon exports and the like, and something British politicians should welcome by dropping out of the step negotiations and leave a phone number to be used if one day the Commission wants to do business with the UK outside WTO terms. As they surely want to do with Canada and Japan…

  47. John
    October 11, 2017

    We definitely need to invest in a No Deal and probably also an enthusiastic No Deal Minister to be appointed.

    Not just for sensible contingency planning but as mentioned, to strengthen our hand. For example if the No Deal department worked out that a no deal would have say a temporary £2bn negative effect on our economy then there is no need to pay more than £2bn as a parting gift.

  48. Oggy
    October 11, 2017

    Throughout this year I have seen many posters here saying Mrs May should go, but I have always been prepared to give her the benefit of the doubt, even after her conference speech (anyone can get a coughing fit). But given she has yet again put her foot in her mouth in refusing to say she would back Brexit in another referendum (which is going to continually haunt her), and also wanting the UK to continue to be subject to the ECJ are the last straws – I have now joined the others in asking for her to step aside and let someone committed to Brexit take the helm.

    Regarding the devious remainer Mr Hammond – he says it is irresponsible to give tax payers money in case of a no deal Brexit. Quite the contrary Mr Hammond it is irresponsible NOT to do so. These continuous anti Brexit interventions from him are undermining the UK’s position – he should have been sacked long ago.

    1. Brownowl
      October 11, 2017

      I followed a similar path, and I came to the same conclusions.

      The damage these two (and their acolytes such as Sourberry, Rudd, Green et al) are doing to the Conservative Party is incalculable.

    2. Elsa Halitcher
      October 11, 2017

      Mr Hammond is the one who must have signed off the financial-economic part of the failed Tory Manifesto.

  49. Dennis Zoff
    October 11, 2017

    “magic of electronic gadgets as yet uninvented is ridiculous ”

    You are the one being ridiculous, technology ignorant and somewhat childish! There are many ways to solve all issues. You clearly, for some reason, do not want Brexit to be successful for the UK citizens, why?

    Incidentally, my company sells this technology through its sister company in the USA and it has been around for quite some time!

  50. Mark
    October 11, 2017

    I think I counted 126 border crossing points between Northern Ireland and the South, as against just 24 between Scotland and England. Everyone knows the Irish border is locally porous, whatever the politicians decree.

    1. Lucasta Nett
      October 11, 2017

      Correct 🙂

  51. James Matthews
    October 11, 2017

    “A Transition period may only be needed if the EU and the UK come to a late agreement next year which requires computer and physical changes to our border arrangements that need time to implement.”

    I assume you wrote this before the Chancellor told the world he would only spend money on preparing for leaving without a deal “when it is responsible to do so”. It would have been responsible to do so the day after the referendum, if not before.

    This is not just the unenthusiastic foot-dragging we have become used to. This is deliberate and undisguised sabotage of the UK negotiating position. In poker terms, throwing away three aces.

    If the Chancellor is not sacked (and it seems pretty certain that he won’t be) we will have to face the prospect of a Corbynist government. The Conservatives will have alienated too much of their core support to have a prayer at the next general election.

    1. Caterpillar
      October 11, 2017

      The continuing existence of Mr Hammond is a serious threat to the UK as well as an insult to the electorate given the referendum result. Even Rees-Mogg has started referring to what should be the policy as “insurance”. The PM needs to declare herself as an exit supporter and swap out Hammond for someone to appropriately support the leave position for which the country voted. We leave in 2019, this is not a decision to play with and Mr Hammond appears to be playing; risk costs he should be putting in certainty.

  52. Norman
    October 11, 2017

    Thank you JR for another clear post and, by the way, for putting up with the despicable abuse – I guess you get used to that in politics, but its no less hateful. In the showing of true colours, one can judge who is right, at least in principle.
    For those who want everything cut-and-dried, principles come first, and where there’s a will, there’s a way – as borne out by history.
    The government must show its mettle on the no-deal front. On Brexit, the PM’s position, as currently stated, is reasonable and sound, but what is really in her heart? Yesterday’s interview was indeed ‘open and honest’. She must now prove beyond doubt that she will serve the popular will as expressed in the terms of the Referendum. Her own political survival, and that of her Party and indeed Britain as we know it, is at stake – and there’s a global dimension, too.
    The REAL cliff-edge is Britain’s current unruly shuffle along a narrow path between two great precipices. Mrs May is entrusted with an awesome task – ‘Who is sufficient for these things?’

  53. Nigel
    October 11, 2017

    JR: David Davies needs to second you as an advisor. Why isn’t he telling us this sort of thing?

    1. Helena
      October 11, 2017

      Because it is fiction, Nigel. “No deal” would cause an economic depression to compare with the 1920s – in the UK alone. There are very good reasons why Mr Redwood has been nowhere near the levers of power for the best part of 30 years.

      1. Edward2
        October 11, 2017

        Is that the same depression we were due if we dared to vote leave?

  54. Tom William
    October 11, 2017

    Mr Hammond says that if there is no deal there is a theoretical possibility of no flights from the UK to Europe being possible the day after we leave although he says this is very unlikely.

    In such a case all flights over UK airspace would also have to be cancelled or diverted, with all the knock on consequences.

    Why raise such an extreme and ridiculous idea, even if only to say it is “unlikely”?

    1. Prigger
      October 11, 2017

      Ryanair has already cancelled flights in anticipation of a Hard Brexit.
      Rynanair is based in Ireland and other foreign countries

    2. Oggy
      October 11, 2017

      His P45 is long overdue.

  55. Duncan
    October 11, 2017

    Treasury Select Ctte

    Nicky Morgan – Chairman – Arch Europhile
    Hammond – Chancellor – a man who is absolutely determined to destroy Brexit
    May – the most appalling PM of the last 250 years. A gift to the left and to Corbyn

    And the Conservatives – an appalling rabble with zero respect for democracy and the referendum result

    I despair, I genuinely despair. I see the country that I love being slowly destroyed by the left, the EU and the Tories.

    I implore decent Tory backbenchers to stand up against May and Hammond before they do any more damage to this once great political party

    1. Ed Mahony
      October 11, 2017

      ‘I despair, I genuinely despair. I see the country that I love being slowly destroyed by the left, the EU and the Tories’

      – Never despair. Put your trust in God (the Christian one). Only he can make our country great again (‘great’ in the right sense of the word – where people work hard, are responsible, have work ethic, enjoy great arts, a strong family life with a Mum and a Dad, and where people have a sense of humour and like each other!).

      1. Ed Mahony
        October 11, 2017

        Apologies, not sure I should have written this comment (and in this way).

        1. Norman
          October 11, 2017

          Not so far wrong there, Ed. That’s largely what we’ve had in the best of the past, and largely what’s now been marginalized. But there’s always repentance towards God – but what will it take to bring a nation to that??? IMO, it would have to be seismic. Meanwhile, we do what we can.

      2. James Matthews
        October 11, 2017

        Sounds quite like the Britain of the nineteen fifties. Now comprehensively trashed – mostly by the people we elected.

      3. Adam and No-one
        October 11, 2017

        ” a strong family life with a Mum and a Dad ” The Home Office does not like the concept of two parents. It seems perverse and quite alien to their thinking. Also it is not yet…. classified as Hate Speech.

    2. Tony Henry
      October 11, 2017

      I agree. My confidence that we would win through in the end is being fast eroded.

      I fear the only way to a clean brexit without being shafted by the EU is to change leader. Put a real brexiteer in charge. Someone with stones who does not feel the need to ingratiate himself to the EU.

      It would be so easy to turn the tables and get the EU running after us if only there was courage.

      My plan would be:

      1. Suspend current payments now and get their attention. Just say no talks on trade = no monthly payments.

      2. Threaten to leave Nato and withold security info. Why should we risk our boys defending nations who wish to harm us?

      3. Insist all future meetings are in London. Sends out strong message that we are not supplicants.

      4. Invest heavily in No Deal infrastructure immediately using the £18bn TM was gifting them.

      5. Tell them we are out in March 18 come what may with no transistions.

      6. Line up new deals with other countries ready for March 18.

      7. No pay to trade. If we pay to buy your goods then you pay more to buy our goods.

      John Redwood could do this. JRM and Boris too.

      Theresa May and her remainers? No chance.

      This is why we need a new leader fast or the country will be cheated of Brexit.

      My great fear is that the Tory party like parliament as a whole is stiffed full of remainers bent on wrecking Brexit.

      We need strong fresh leadership to get us out of the mess. I hope May is gone by Xmas. She is hopeless.

      John Redwood please do what you can behind the scenes to encourage a real Brexiteer to take charge. You would be perfect as would JRM and Boris!

      1. The Prangwizard
        October 11, 2017

        Mr Redwood is an ultra loyalist. Do not hold your breath.

      2. Crazytimes
        October 11, 2017

        Tony.. to answer some of the points you make

        1/ we already have their attention with all of the chaos going on

        2/ they have their own security and have no need of our input

        3/ the UK is leaving the EU and not the other way round

        4/ any money owed for past made commitnents is not a gift

        5/ I’m sure we could leave tomorrow for all they care

        6/ exactly, Liam Fox should be out there making deals like he promised.

        7/ they don’t care about trading with us into the future. They are going to reorganise and plan a new way forward without us..just as we are going to make new trade deals without them.

        They have no wish to see us down- we are doing that all by ourselves

    3. M Lu
      October 11, 2017

      Like you, I’m utterly baffled. And getting angrier, almost by the day.

      A Conservative voter all my life, I fear that I’m fast getting past holding my nose to vote Conservative again to block Labour. And my MP is a good one.

      Do I destroy my ballot paper? Or march with others to demand that Parliament respect the electorate? Or what?

      I’m grateful to Mr Redwood for his blog and willingness to engage.

    4. Pussycat
      October 11, 2017

      Nicky Morgan has been quite supportive of Mrs May recently. Someone must have given her a mouse.

  56. Roy Grainger
    October 11, 2017

    I see Hammond didn’t even wait for a planted question before spouting his Project Fear rubbish about flights stopping in May 2019. I wonder if that represents an agreed Cabinet position ? If not why isn’t he slapped down by May like Boris was ? Well … we know why.

    1. Peter Parsons
      October 11, 2017

      Maybe because, unlike Boris and his £350 million a week for the NHS, what Hammond said was actually true?

      1. Beecee
        October 11, 2017

        Boris got his figures from the OBR Report which stated that in 2021 or 2022, if we did not leave the EU, our net contribution would be around 350m per week.

        Boris clearly said that we would have that figure to spend AFTER we have left the EU and was therefore correct!

      2. NickC
        October 11, 2017

        Peter, No one said that £350m pw would be given to the NHS. The £350m pw is the total gross bill demanded by the EU, from which we get about half back currently at the EU’s whim.

        The bus slogan of “Let’s fund the NHS instead” was an example, with the amount unspecified. A bit like – “Give up your 20 cigarette a day habit, and you could fund a foreign holiday instead”.

        1. Peter Parsons
          October 12, 2017

          Yes they did, as this article with a photo of Priti Patel shows:

      3. John
        October 11, 2017

        You mean like that:

        The EU is not going to be a Federal State?
        The EU does not plan one finance minister and central tax collection?
        The EU does not plan to assume control of Nation State Armed forces?
        That had we voted for Brexit there would be an immediate financial catastrophe?
        That we only joined a common trading market and nothing more?
        That the EU would not control the lucrative UK fishing grounds and plunge most fishing industry workers in the UK into unemployment?
        Etc Etc Etc

        However, the £19.5 billion we give to the EU will come under UK control again. The democratically elected UK government will decide how to spend that UK derived tax revenue. It WILL BE SPENT IN UK ALL OF IT. ALL £365 MILLION A WEEK.

        Are you not happy at that?

  57. Mick
    October 11, 2017

    Just been watching the daily politics and it had the shadow Brexit minister Jenny Chapman say that after the transition period labour would keep us in the single market and custom union what part of the referendum don’t labour understand we voted to LEAVE with no control by the eu, bring on a GE so these back sliding conjurors called the labour and lib parties can be wiped out and MPs put in place who represent the people who vote for them

    1. fedupsoutherner
      October 11, 2017


      Which MP’s would they be then? I don’t see that many being committed Brexiteers. Of course if Farage hadn’t gone then there might just have been a party committed to protecting our democratic rights. Like them or loathe them they are the only party who would bring us out of the EU with no dithering.

    2. Roy Grainger
      October 11, 2017

      That’s fine for Labour but they’d have to tell us then why they are proposing state aid (to steel) and nationalisation of utilities that probably wouldn’t be allowed inside the single market and would be delayed by the ECJ for years.

      1. Original Richard
        October 11, 2017

        Of course Mr. Corbyn knows that the EU would veto his nationalisation plans.

        But he sees the call for nationalisation and other such measures as vote winners which would enable him to get into power and he would just blame the EU for not being able to implement these election promises.

    3. Keir Half-Hardy HH
      October 11, 2017

      “what part of the referendum don’t labour understand ” They understand all of it. They are an anti-democratic gang and they should be proscribed.

  58. Prigger
    October 11, 2017

    PMs Question Time in the House today 11th October 2017
    Mrs May was heckled loudly and repeatedly by Labourites even when she was offering condolences on the death of Mr Bickerstaffe a Labourite of NUPE,, which merged later becoming UNISON. Also when offering condolences on the death of a child. Perhaps Mr Speaker does not have any real control which he can exercise other than engaging in long bouts of personal abuse himself. He should do better. MPs should assist him in so doing. The impression Labour creates is one of a disrespectful rabble to the whole world. But foreigners may think they represent us all.

  59. fedupsoutherner
    October 11, 2017

    Just heard Hammond saying he won’t be spending any money on contingency plans for a no deal with the EU. Apparently “Every pound spent on this is less money for councils and the NHS.” Oh, really Mr Hammond. Well every pound we spend on the EU is money that could be spent at home. I despair.

  60. fedupsoutherner
    October 11, 2017

    Oh, just heard also that flights might be grounded if no deal is reached. Talk about playing right into the EU’s hands. When is this man going to be sacked? Boris is not the problem here – it’s Hammond.

    1. ManfredvonRichthofen
      October 11, 2017

      The rest of the world may have something to say to the EU about that…as it would disrupt all world air travel and business.

  61. Peter
    October 11, 2017

    Looking at Hammonds speech on Guido, he says he will not spend on No Deal preparations ‘until the very last moment when we need to do so’

    That can be taken as prudent management of cash flow.

    However, the fact that he has chosen to broadcast this when other Conservatives are saying preparations for No Deal are to be done IN SECRET suggests that he has another agenda. Rallying the ranks of remainers looking to delay and obstruct is one possibilty. It certainly does not sound like ‘a nest singing birds’ as Boris put it.

    1. Vulture
      October 11, 2017

      Naa. I could pay my Council Tax in advance but only pay it at the very last moment as they do not reveal how much interest they make on any prepayment. Which is deceitful and something their lawyers should think about as mine are.

    2. Caterpillar
      October 11, 2017

      It isn’t not prudent cash flow management. It ignores risk and it ignores signalling… or perhaps it is signalling. Either way it is not prudent cash flow management.

  62. PatW
    October 11, 2017

    As an irishman living north of the irish border and working south of i, I travel backwards and forwards several times daily. i can tell you that no british government or EU commission is going to strip away my EU citizenship nor my irish one either.

    1. James Matthews
      October 11, 2017

      I don’ t think anyone wants to do that. On the other hand, if you also hold UK citizenship it might be appropriate to withdraw it. Given your sentiments I am sure you won’t mind.

  63. ian
    October 11, 2017

    I have heard Mrs May say in the house today that the UK will be coming fully out of the EU on the 29/02/2019 with or without an agreement with the EU. I take that to mean that there will be no final vote in the HOC/ and take that to means/ Mrs May and the cabinet are going to handle everything their selves without any more involvement from the HOC/ HOL, which I think would be a welcome step forward if true.

    1. Eudora Fefflebut
      October 11, 2017

      The final vote was on 23rd June 2016. This was made crystal clear at the time by all parties and all campaign groups without exception.

  64. Prigger
    October 11, 2017

    Donald J. Trump‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump 3m minutes ago
    With all of the Fake News coming out of NBC and the Networks, at what point is it appropriate to challenge their License? Bad for country!”
    I wonder if Doanald made a typo when he typed NBC and really meant BBC?

  65. margaret
    October 11, 2017

    How do we get our fishing waters back ?

    1. The Prangwizard
      October 11, 2017

      And how are we intending to defend them? My guess is is we will not. Weakness abounds. Mrs May is a remainer and cannot be relied upon to put our interests first.

    2. Mack Errol
      October 11, 2017

      We should demand the EU clean them of trash and plastic when we get them back as when we handed them over they were pristine and what’s more full of fish.

    3. paulW
      October 11, 2017

      Margaret.. it will be easy to get our fishing waters back since they only ever extended out to 12 miles from a baseline around our coast- this being prior to the launch of the EU fisheries sometime back in the late 1970’s. I don’t think that the EU are going to give up more than what is now regarded as EU fisheries to suit UK departure from the bloc.

      1. David Price
        October 12, 2017

        International law has UK’s EEZ out to 200 miles.

        1. TomF
          October 12, 2017

 is EEZ but not UK’s

          European Economic and Fishing rights extend out to 200 miles

          UK ntraditional fishing rights prior to the 1970’s extended out to 12 miles only

          UK territorial limits extend out to three miles from the coast

          1. David Price
            October 13, 2017

            According to the OECD;
            An Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) is a concept adopted at the Third United Nations Conference on the Law of the Sea (1982), whereby a coastal State assumes jurisdiction over the exploration and exploitation of marine resources in its adjacent section of the continental shelf, taken to be a band extending 200 miles from the shore.

            EEZ does not mean EU Economic Zone.

            EU rights only apply by virtue of our membership and treaty, we leave they no longer have rights within our EEZ.

            Unless you want to simply give away those resources to the EU, but why would you want to do that?

  66. hans christian ivers
    October 11, 2017


    I am sorry but I really fail to see that the Eu has a weak hand with 450 million consumers compared to 65 million.

    Let me just remind you that export from the UK to the rest of the world fell by 8% in August and it increased by 4.5% to teh Eu, which just shows how dependent we are on the EU.

    I do not think you “No deal” scenario flied with any of teh businesses I am involved with, but then I am not a politician, only somebody who trades with Europe every day.

    1. John
      October 11, 2017

      Hans, the average wage in the EU is around $2000 less than the World and that includes the UK so will go down even further after we leave.

      Most of the EU is Eastern block and poor Mediterranean countries. Most eastern block countries earn well under 10,000 Euros a year per head. They can’t afford to buy from high value economies like the UK. The market is not 450 million its a fraction of that. Yet in the rest of the world there are many 100s millions more that do earn comparative wages to the UK. That is the market for us.

    2. PaulDirac
      October 11, 2017

      To: Hans Christian Ivers
      A “No deal” will damage both sides and there are many opinions about “who will suffer more”, but that is irrelevant.

      The UK has voted for control of law, borders & money.
      If the deal offered by the EU (after full negotiations), which must include the above elements of control, is worse than WTO, we should simply go to “No deal”.
      We get the control, we get the WTO, why agree to anything worse?

  67. BertD
    October 11, 2017

    Some have their comments printed without delay..others, i notice, have their comments held up until late in tge evenings? Could this be a form of censorship..i wonder?

    1. Satan
      October 11, 2017

      You’re lucky!

    2. hefner
      October 11, 2017

      Not “censorship”, “management”.

    3. Peter
      October 11, 2017

      Good point. To some extent this is an echo chamber. You did not mention comments that are not published….

  68. JJE
    October 11, 2017

    I fear no deal on air travel means no air travel.
    No WTO provisions there.

  69. Shieldsman
    October 11, 2017

    All I can say is Hammond is an Idiot and the Press are even bigger idiots for printing his nonsense. “it’s conceivable there will be no air traffic moving between the EU and the UK on 29 March, 2019”

    I put a lot of effort yesterday in explaining why even without any trade agreement a new bi-lateral air services agreement has to be completed before 29 March 2019. I repeat it here.

    The triggering of Article 50 is notification to the European Union that the United Kingdom will cease to be part of the European Common Aviation Area, in which the Commission negotiates bi-lateral Air Service Agreements on behalf of the member States. EU external aviation policy briefing May 2016, EPRS_ BRI(2016) 582021_EN is relevant.

    Article 1 of the Chicago Convention mentions that ‘The contracting States recognize that every State has complete and exclusive sovereignty over the airspace above its territory’, while Article 6 on scheduled air services states that, ‘No scheduled international air service may be operated over or into the territory of a contracting State, except with the special permission or other authorization of that State, and in accordance with the terms of such permission or authorization’.

    The United Kingdom has such sovereignty, and therefore on leaving the EU has exclusive rights to negotiate bi-lateral air service agreements under the Chicago Convention.

    So on leaving the EU The Brussels Commission will no longer be responsible for negotiating our bi-lateral air service agreements.
    The Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs appears to be responsible for negotiating bi-lateral air service agreements. He must therefore confirm that the five freedoms negotiated with the EU’s so called third Countries are still valid after 29th March 2017.

    The United Kingdoms proposal for a replacement air service agreement are set out in CBP-7633.
    The Chief Executive of the CAA, Andrew Haines, set out the UK’s options on access to the ECAA
    One being staying in the European Common Aviation Area (i.e. UK airline treated as if part of the EU, with full access – in many ways highly desirable for both sides in this negotiation). But Aviation is likely to be caught in the crossfire. This is not to be recommended, membership of the ECAA effectively requires acceptance of EU aviation law across all areas, so where the UK might want to move away from current EU rules with which it is not entirely satisfied (e.g. state aid or compensation). Compromise would be required, leading to a ransom and any final agreement involving Community Law and jurisdiction of the ECJ.
    The areas of EU aviation law and regulation that the UK would have to submit to, as part of the ECAA, are extensive. They include market access, safety, security, air traffic management, Ownership, the environment, social (labour) issues, consumer rights and the economic regulation of airports. The EU’s new Aviation Strategy proposes changes in many of these areas, but only EU member states have a say on such developments. Non-EU participants in the ECAA have to take it or leave it”.

    Best to be free, keep it simple with the quid pro quo of a bi-lateral, which was the way we operated before ECAA. The EU cannot refuse to negotiate the ICAO 5 Freedoms of the Air with the UK. Not to do so would deny the 27 members Airlines, entry into and over the UK’s airspace.

    The UK will remain a member of Eurocontrol. Through NATS the privately run National Air Traffic Service which provides an ATM and the United Kingdom Government controls all air traffic in its airspace extending out over the Atlantic seaboard. European air traffic is controlled by Eurocontrol, which is an intergovernmental organisation composed of European Council members, not European Union members. Eurocontrol has 41 members, as far flung as Armenia and Georgia. London Centre is the busiest air traffic control centre in Europe; the vast majority of transatlantic air traffic is co-ordinated from Prestwick in Ayrshire. The UK will continue to be an integral part of European air space.

    The UK Civil Aviation Authority will remain a member of EASA a joint venture agency which replaced the JAA and the UK Air Registration Board.
    The UK will remain a members of European Civil Aviation Conference, SESAR, and OECD.

    Liberaliastion and competition, much lauded by ECAA does not always get the best results. Three failures this year. Auf Wiedersehen Air Berlin. Will Commissioner Bluc introduce more legislation to save bankrupt airlines?

  70. John
    October 11, 2017

    If not JR for No Deal Brexit Minister then what about JRM? He has a certain superiority in his voice that I’m sure the EU team would appreciate.

  71. John O'Leary
    October 11, 2017

    Are you aware that we cannot impose tariffs on the EU without also imposing them on the Rest of the World? To do so would fall foul of WTO rules.

    1. David Price
      October 12, 2017

      If we leave without a deal then our tariffs will be the same as EU tariffs. However we are then free to make trade agreements that offer reduced tariffs to any except for the EU which doesn’t seem to want to maintain trade with us.

      Why are you not complaining about the EU demands for money with menaces and refusal to discuss trade?

  72. jack Snell
    October 11, 2017

    Saw JR on Ian King/Sky this evening giving out his usual spin, ‘they need us more than we need them’/ – well we’ll see soon enough. Information from France and German press is that most Europeans don’t give two hoots whether UK leaves with a transition deal or not, in fact most havn’t a clue about the struggle and strife that is going on at home. Brussels in the form of Barnier and Junker are paying attention alright but they have their orders from the EU Council and being good continentals will follow them to the there is no point in cajoling them to move forward to discuss the future before the past is agreed, and agreed sufficiently to meet their rules and requirements. What is so hard to understand about that- we are leaving the EU and not the other way round?

    So first of all we have to put to bed the following

    1/ Agree about the future movement of peoples both EU and EU?

    2/ Come up with a plan for trade and movement of goods etc on the Irish border that will not cause disruption to peoples daily lives- with no queues and no Customs posts or police delays.

    3/ Agree a formula for paying whatever money we owe for commitments already made.

    We are playing a dangerous game now if we think that the EU side are also playing a similar game..they are not..they are just going by the instructions already decided by the EU27 with little or no room for negotiation from their side- the way I see it..

  73. John S
    October 11, 2017

    The crucial question is: will Parliament block a “No Deal”

  74. Original Richard
    October 11, 2017

    Mrs. May can’t think much of her own negotiating skills if she cannot say which way she would vote in any referendum coming after her negotiations with the EU.

  75. Lindsay McDougall
    October 12, 2017

    At last the penny drops. Logically Mr Hammond, the champion of an implementation period, is on very shaky ground. The two year implementation period should be cancelled before the EU gets a chance to accept it. Conservative back benchers should make clear to the PM that it is unwanted.

    As for payments to the EU after we leave, we should establish what is legally due, what is morally due and what would be ex gratia, tempering the wind to the shorn lamb so to speak. Given that the EU intends – without a shadow of doubt – to create a federal SuperState with a European Army, the ex gratia bit should be zero.

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