It is a bit rich the EU demanding more money or else no talks on trade. Ā There can only be one answer to that bullying – no money.
The UK needs to reverse the argument. If the EU does not start talkig about a free trade agreement with the UK before the end of the year then the UK will press ahead with the WTO option as Plan A and work with business to trade without an FTA with the EU.
November 11, 2017
Indeed, T May has gone far too far already.
November 11, 2017
Absolutely. Note to May and Davis: wake up and get real. Lords King and Lawson are correct the mythical good deal will never be offered because the rest of the Eau countries would leave, the EU would be writing its death warrant.
We read today that Christopher Chope MP says he now realises the EU want to punish the UK as an example to the rest therefore accept no deal.
Therefore Davis now needs to discuss what the EU owes us as net contributor for forty years and what share of assets it will repay us for. Our public services need the cash injection. Better the money go on our NHS, roads, buildings than exotic fish mating programmes in the tropics! No need for us to pay the pensions of ambassadors for the EU around the world we have our own and the British tax paying public are not paying twice.
Moreover, Ireland must leave the single market and customs union or leave the EU if it wishes to trade with the UK without a hard border. If it can survive on 15 percent of its current trade with other countries, good luck. Ireland wanted independence and got EU rule. Ireland did not want the Lisbon Treaty but the govt changed the people’s minds. It needs to make a choice and stick to it. Of course Ireland will need to pay more to be in the EU with 85 percent less trade. The UK is not for turning, Ireland needs to make up its mind. Ireland wanted its independence now the UK wants its own as well, I am sure Ireland will understand.
November 12, 2017
The Irish understand petfectly but there is not x chance in hell that the Irish would ever return to the UK – you see we have long memories, memeroies of famine evictions and mass emigration..you guys are on your own
November 13, 2017
Whoever said Ireland would or should. It should be a proud independent country not a region of the German controlled EU. Your hatred is selective and irrelevant to the people alive today. We bare no malice and suffered from arastacrats like many Irish people. Before this Europeans went to Ireland captured whole towns of people took them away and enslaved them. The two world wars saw English and Irish fight a common enemy together, those who you control your country, selectively you forget in your so called long memory.
November 11, 2017
Lifelogic, Yes, Mrs May has gone too far in appeasing the EU. The Conservative government is repeating all the mistakes that a previous Conservative government made in 1972.
There is a massive cultural gap between the British and the Continentals. We see compromise as a sign of seriousness and good will; the EU sees early compromise as weakness. The result is, in the EU, we are (almost) always outmanoeuvred by the EU. This rankles with us. The EU is blind to our dissatisfaction. Finally we say no more. The EU is taken by surprise. The EU thinks we are perfidious.
We got a bad deal in 1972 because of this cultural gap. That’s also why Cameron got a bad deal in 2016. The UK and the EU negotiate with different basic assumptions. The bad deals were a significant contributing factor to the Leave vote. We had finally had enough. The EU was surprised. The EU thinks we are perfidious. That is why the negotiations are going so badly.
That is the reason why we must stop negotiating with the EU, and implement the WTO deal now. Ironically it is only then that the EU will negotiate sensibly.
November 12, 2017
Two things.
The same Conservatives (sic) that told us this all about trade and, are trying to do so again.
The only time the UK ever got one over the Continentals was when Mrs.T demanded, yes demanded that the then EEC give our money back.
Membership of the Stupid Club has only benefited others and not the UK.
November 11, 2017
hello john
can you tell me why the argument appears to be missing 3 key words, “balance of payments”?
many thanks
November 11, 2017
JR, the politicos also forget this not primarily about money and trade it is about independence from a self serving corrupt political entity. Better to die standing on your feet than live on your knees to crap like this.
November 11, 2017
What a wonderful day for the EU to threaten the UK.
The very day when we remember our War Dead, who sacrificed their lives in Two World Wars in order to try and free Europe of tyranny.
Just shows what they really think of us.
Out now, If this is not enough nothing will be.
November 12, 2017
Is it significant then that the German football side were wearing poppies?
November 12, 2017
When the Labour Party is on its knees it is actually showing its true ethical height.
November 11, 2017
It is what evil empires be like.
These negotiations look a farce, with the bad faith and lack of realism from the EU side defining all. Time is long past when the UK should regard the EU as a hostile power.
Let us also draw lessons from Australia, where its Productivity Commission has warned that trade deals are typically over-sold, that the main drivers of trade lie outside the scope of such deals, and that some common features of deals bring significant costs and risks.
November 11, 2017
Make sure that the rest of your party knows.
Any sellout now will be a travesty.
November 11, 2017
reversal is required. astonishingly this cheek by barnier was reported on the bbc without criticism and as if it was the right thing being done.
November 11, 2017
I think Barnier would be confident from all the traitors from the UK who passed his Office. May needs to root them out and take all and any possible legal action against them.
November 11, 2017
am : Just what else does expect from the Brexit Blocking C… while in the pay of the EU.
November 12, 2017
I hear Barnier has been viewing household properties for sale on the island of Elba.
November 11, 2017
Well, to repeat a comment on a previous thread –
“Iām puzzled by an unusual letter we received this morning. Weāve recently had some electrical work done and having finished it the chap went off saying that his boss would send us an itemised invoice. Instead weāve now got a strange letter asking us to name the price we would be willing to pay for the job, put in a bid as it were, and if we donāt do that within two weeks then henceforth they will refuse to speak to us on that or anything else. I canāt remember ever getting a letter like this before. One thing is for sure, whatever happens we wonāt be asking them to do any work for us in the future.”
November 11, 2017
There are perhaps precedents for the EU’s outrageous demand for an “exit fee”, for example as I recall there were times when the Soviet Union had a policy of allowing some troublesome citizens to renounce their citizenship and emigrate but took great care to extort large sums of money for their exit visas.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1970s_Soviet_Union_aliyah
“In 1972, the USSR imposed a so-called “diploma tax” on would-be emigrants who had received higher education in the USSR. The fee reached as high as twenty times an annual salary. This measure was designed to combat the brain drain caused by the growing emigration of Soviet Jews and other members of the intelligentsia to the West. Following international protests, the Kremlin soon revoked the tax, but continued to sporadically impose various limitations.”
I’m not sure how “twenty times an annual salary” could be translated to the case of the UK having to pay through the nose to extricate itself from the EU prison. And nor indeed is there any guidance on that in Article 50, it seems that Lord Kerr forgot to put that in along with one or two other important details.
November 11, 2017
Oh, this is interesting:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Kerr,_Baron_Kerr_of_Kinlochard
“Speaking at an event organised by the Institute for Government, Lord Kerr said: “In my view, immigration is the thing that keeps this country running. We native Brits are so bloody stupid that we need an injection of intelligent people, young people from outside who come in and wake us up from time to time.” In response to the remarks, Peter Lilley MP (a Eurosceptic Conservative) walked out of the event, and said he had considered reporting the peer to the police for hate speech and being “racially abusive of the British people””
Hard to believe that this man who so despises us was chosen to represent us in several major countries as well as in the EU.
November 12, 2017
And more surprising that he chooses to live amongst the very people he despises.
I may be stupid by Lord Kerr’s definition but, I do know the meaning of the word hypocrite.
November 12, 2017
Lord Kerr was quite right to say that – he was trying to wake the politicians up that our need of Foreign Aid pointed to the fact that our home policies are wrong to need such aid.
There’s nothing wrong with British talent and intelligence it just needs to be educated and promoted.
November 13, 2017
I’m sure that if he was aware of it he would be very grateful for your explanation of what he really meant but was incapable of clearly expressing himself, being “bloody stupid” like the rest of us.
November 12, 2017
“In 1972, the USSR imposed a so-called ādiploma taxā
They should have called it Tuition Fees or Student Loans then everyone would understand .
November 13, 2017
UK students are not charged through the nose for an exit visa, that is why they can skip off abroad and avoid repaying their loans.
November 11, 2017
Thank you for all the businesses and jobs such a decision would send to the Continent, Mr Redwood.
Brexit was sold to the British public on a bunch of lies, namely that the U.K. would get all it wants and that it would be painless.
Turns out it is not the case. It is not surprising to see the wheels come off.
November 11, 2017
Nonsense, all the promises will be kept
1) control of money
2) control of laws
3) control of immigration
The EU do not want to be sensible. Fine, we will trade on WTO MFN and hold the EU to A8 TEU. We will not pay a penny after 31/03/2019. The EU can do NOTHING to stop us as a sovereign country.
We offered the EU friendship and still will, but do not take our friendship for granted or think that you can bully us. You will regret it…..
zorro
November 11, 2017
No the lies were to get us in the EU and to continue the sham read FCO appear 30/1048. You will see the deceit of the politicos and civil service.
November 11, 2017
You certainly need them, don’t you? Remind us of the unemployment rates around the periphery please? That 35 hour week works wonders, doesn’t it?
A problem with your logic is that without us buying EU products and propping up the EU with budget contributions, you won’t have a market for your goods to support all those so-called extra jobs.
November 11, 2017
And yet the wagon keeps on rolling.
If the decision would be so advantageous to you why warn about the consequences? Your gloating clearly lacks conviction.
November 11, 2017
Remainers like you fail to realise that it was independence most people voted for.
To return to being a free nation.
November 11, 2017
Tabulazero, You concentrate on trade issues, but we voted Leave mostly for other reasons. What we want is independence from the EU. You know, like most of the world has, yet still trades with the EU.
I for one one never expected the EU to be rational, fair or friendly. Indeed anyone who did clearly hadn’t been paying attention for the last 45 years. So the EU is not just corrupt, dysfunctional and anti-democratic, it is also demonstrably nasty.
Your problem is the rest of the world is watching your bad behaviour.
November 12, 2017
Tabulazero
As you’ve never run a business and as you’ve never traded overseas, and as you dont know the first thing about commerce we can safely ignore you. 92% of UK business has NEVER traded with the EU, the number of jobs dependent on the EU is basically a few politicians and some media types…. er thats it. Did you see by the way that job vacancies in the City of London have RISEN by another 7% it most be very frustrating that all your fear mongering has been proved totally wrong. I put your fear and anger down to you been a teenage snowflake, better find yourself a gender neutral safe space for when we leave in March 2019
November 13, 2017
Tabulazero
It must be really galling being a brainless snowflake. Read and weep
Headline Growth accelerates in almost every corner of the UK
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/11/13/growth-accelerates-almost-every-corner-uk/
November 11, 2017
Excellent idea. Someone has to break the deadlock and why not the party with most to lose?
November 11, 2017
Dream on….
zorro
November 11, 2017
If you read the EU’s impact assessment summary (freely available online) its view is that the UK has the most to lose from no deal. Both sides would feel some pain, but the UK would feel a lot more is its conclusion.
It would be good to be able to compare that view with the conclusions in the UK’s impact assessments, however…
November 11, 2017
It is true that the EU27 as a whole (‘as a whole’ is important) would just about manage from the result of no deal, but individual member states with economies on a real knife edge and pretty staggering unemployment levels might not be so lucky. The Eurozone is already in a quiet crisis and a ‘no deal’ scenario is not something they will want.
In the same way that the UK is somehow ridiculed for having lower GDP growth than the EU27 when their average GDP growth is propped up by the likes of Romania’s 6% GDP growth when they receive the equivalent of 4% of GDP in EU (read: our money) funding. I wonder what would happen if that money suddenly isn’t available?
We can change our rules to entice business, take measures to alter the value of the pound if absolutely necessary, whereas individual Eurozone countries are bound by whatever the ECB decides to do (which may not turn out to be very good). If they end up with half a dozen more Greek economies their market of 450 million people (many of whom are wholly irrelevant to our exporters but Remain wouldn’t want to admit it) suddenly doesn’t come across as so attractive.
November 12, 2017
You have not read too much, apparently. The EU is the dstination for 46% of UK exports. Name one economy actively involved in trade with the EU that is “on a knife edge and has staggering unemployment levels” The UK economy has very high employment, agreed, but that blessing could turn into a curse if foreign workers left suddenly. UK infrastructure is below average EU standards, government debt is such that rating agencies would definitely not like a hard brexit on top of that. The pound is very vulnerable and the BoE is criticized by mr Redwood here that its policies are wrong. Count your blessings, Fxh. I am not arguing that the UK should stay in the EU, but there would have been different solutions to that particular UK problem than jumping off a building..
November 13, 2017
Rien H
43% of UK exports in goods and services went to other countries in the EU in 2016āĀ£240 billion out of Ā£550 billion total exports.
That share has generally been declining, since exports to other countries have increased at a faster rate.
The EUās share of the world economy has been declining too. In particular, the developing world has been growing faster than the developed world and is expected to continue doing so.
As to importing skilled workers, we can bring in talent from anywhere in the world on Tier 2 visas, so dont worry too much about that.
You need to worry why most of the EU has such horrendous unemployment levels.
By the way China is the EU’s second biggest market after the USA ( The EU doesn’t have a trade deal with either)
The EU and China trade almost entirely on a bilateral basis, in that China trades with individual Member States and not with the EU as a whole. Consequently, each Member State enjoys a unique trade relationship with China, which in practice exacerbates conflicting interests among Member States, rendering them divided, unable to leverage their collective economic clout, and overly dependent on China.
November 12, 2017
The EU thinks we’ll be worse off. Imagine my shock.
November 12, 2017
I give no credibility to EU analyses but from their calculation the EU elite are jeopardizing ā¬96 bn of trade revenue for it’s productive countries and at least Ā£10 bn in subscriptions and levies.
That ā¬96bn is not spread evenly across the EU27, a few countries will see a disproportionate effect and the productive countries will also be required by the EU to make up the shortfall in it’s budget. The EU elite have ensured that what could have been a win-win outcome will instead be lose-lose.
We have been on the losing side of the relationship for the past 42 years, time to leave.
November 11, 2017
There was never a deadlock, it was always intransigence to blackmail money from the UK and it keep it in the EU by another name.
November 12, 2017
You should stop deluding yourself the that the EU wants to keep Britain in. That is simply not true. They want to minimize the damage to tgheir side. The UK’s damage is not their problem, although some people feel pity for the intelligent Britons who are being dragged into this mess by a bunch of nationalistic dreamers egged on by some very strange politicians.
November 13, 2017
Rien
You are entirely incorrect
The EU are TERRIFIED of UK leaving. It will blast a huge hole in their finances and damage the credibility and empire building plans of the elite buffoons who run it undemocratically .
I’ve been in business a long long time, and normally 90% or so of people live in the past, stick to what they know, tell you that innovations will never work and that big is beautiful. They and you are ALWAYS wrong. Remainers STILL are harping on about what they ASSUME is the motive for leave voters and you are STILL wrong about that too. It has nothing to do with Nationalism, or being anti foreigner, or being insular, or backward looking. Its about local democracy, global free trade, free markets ( not customs unions) and lower costs through NOT being in protectionist markets. There were some benefits to being in a common market but they were overridden by the empire building fanaticism of a few failed politicians and bureaucrats .
November 12, 2017
Rien
I think you’ll find that the hole in the EU finances when the UK leaves will have a rather bigger impact than you think. You have once again been let down by the 4th rate rabble that you let undemocratically run your empire
November 11, 2017
Absolutely ! but Dr Redwood you need to ensure this message gets through loud and clear to Mrs May and David Davis, who sadly, don’t appear to have the fortitude to do it.
November 11, 2017
Said it before and will continue to agree with you. Can you judge whether Mrs T May has the resolve to put it into action. Rest assured this situation has to blow up in Barnier’s face before they are likely to wish to have a proper negotiation. At such a point it does not matter to the UK whether we get win win from free trade or just win from trade on WTO terms, In real terms the EU is the supplicant.
1. On WTO terms , it costs the EU Ā£12 billion to trade with the UK and that sum reduces their competitiveness in a big way, so reducing trade and causing them unemployment.
2. The UK gains about Ā£7 billion in duty ( Their Ā£12 B minus Ā£5 B) we have to pay them in duty.
3. We can then access much more competitive sources, particularly regarding food.
4. I would make Eire a special case and allow them to trade free of duty providing the goods originate in Eire. Irish passport holders could enter the UK unhindered. I would also suggest they join us via an Irish referendum as a sovereign member of the Commonwealth.
If the EU allow this to happen , await the explosion from their industry and trade unions.
November 12, 2017
‘We’ don’t pay them anything. It is their consumers (and ours the other way around) who pay tariffs. If we have to pay into the EU budget that is a cost to us, but it is illegal to ‘pay to trade’ under WTO, and as there is a huge surplus I think the EU should pay a huge sum to access the UK market !!
November 12, 2017
Indeed, as Varoufakis said Barnier is an irrelevance who should now be ignored. The EU is making us fight for the right to negotiate with them. This is TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE. My God, even Sir Christopher Meyer has said this!
zorro
November 11, 2017
Come on John this is getting silly. We want politics to get out of the way so we can trade freely with each other.
November 11, 2017
The EU doesn’t know how to negotiate, it just knows how to issue threats.
Its dealings with Poland and Hungary show the same “if you don’t do what we want we’ll take action” attitude.
How to win friends and influence people!!
November 11, 2017
Re bullying: this is the timetable the UK apparently agreed to. Imo sticking to that is not bullying, but if that makes your voters happy, OK. Ca ne mange pas de pain, as the French say. Anyway what is more important is the curious behaviour of the UK government.
A more objective observer would note that the party taking the initiative for the change (the exit) ie the UK is not doing anything to further her case. Simultaneously London is signaling that nothing agreed with any member of this cabinet is guaranteed to become a formal, durable treaty or even a less formal agreement. Tomorrow’s government of the day may change its mind and reverse course. A waste of time then for Barnier and his team (as they probably expected from the start). It could only serve one useful purpose, that both sides of the internal Tory conflict want to delay a showdown and that any formalized structure regarding the future relationship and especially involving large sums (justified or not) would be in the way. Since no side can force the other to agree to something that would further their case, no one acts. Is that a correct assessment, Mr Redwood?
Reply No, its nonsense
November 12, 2017
What is curious is that your negotiators refuse to negotiate, they have pressed such outrageous demands that anyone would think they are simply delaying matters, seeking to make their “victim” desperate.
But then, we have seen how the EU elite behave when they think they have the upper hand – reneging on CAP agreements, replacing the Italian government, destroying the Greek economy, fostering disgusting levels of unemployment in the southern states while importing millions of migrants.
Why would anyone want agree anything with such a group? Why would a customer who buys ā¬96 bn of goods and services want to do any business at all with such a supplier.
November 11, 2017
And there’s no chance whatsoever of May and her useless lot adopting such a sensible approach.
November 11, 2017
But will this happen John or is it just your take on things?
November 11, 2017
The EU negotiating team is not stupid. The members know the reaction of an ultimatum. They wish it to happen. They wish the UK to withdraw with anger. They hope their allies Labour, SNP and LibDems will exploit the situation bringing us to our knees and unutterable defeat. We should not imagine the Opposition in our Parliament are patriots or democratic. Many of their leading lights are openly anti-HM The Queen.
If you do not have loyalty to our Head of State you should not be allowed to stand in any of our elections. Though of course you should be allowed freedom of speech but not in Her House. She is family.
November 12, 2017
No need to withdraw in anger, just remain polite and do what our host and others suggest – Plan A is WTO and the EU can request an RTA to facilitate their current Ā£96b of trade benefits with the UK.
I don’t think their trade benefits can be protected though, I am certainly being more selective of the origins of goods I buy.
November 12, 2017
This discussion is getting weirder and weirder..
November 11, 2017
1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.
2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.
3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.
4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.
A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.
=============
Nope. Nothing in there about handing over cash and sacking nurses to pay the EU.
November 11, 2017
Spot 0n John.
All they ever wanted from us was money, we have been a net contributor for over 40 years, and we have had a massive trade deficit with them as well.
We have tried for 40 years to work to modify the set up with very very little success.
We have now offered them 2 years extra contributions, and it has all been thrown back in our faces.
Time to call it a day, and get on with our own lives., and work with the rest of the World.
November 11, 2017
No success. EU fanatics, Cameron and Blair, tried to change the EU and got absolutely no where, it cost us more money! There is no top table, the U.K. Has never influenced the direction of the EU and never will with Germany in charge of it and its i bread dislike for the US.
November 11, 2017
Itās important to understand the meaning of World Trade Organization (WTO) ārulesā. Why? Because people are talking about WTO rules as if they only kick in if the UK and EU fail to reach agreement on their future trade relationship ā that only then would the UK and EU āfall back on WTO rulesā. They are wrong.
The truth is: WTO rules already apply to the UKās present trade relationship with the EU. They will also apply to any future trade relationship between the two, whether there is a deal of some kind, or no deal at all ā so long as the UK and the EU and its member states are members of the WTO. (Peter Ungphakorn)
The UK is voluntarily leaving the EU. The EU is not throwing the UK out of the EU. This Colonel Blimp attitude is making us look like a North Korean clown state.
November 12, 2017
acorn
says the person who has never started , run or built a business and has never traded overseas. What Col Blimp attitude? The we’re leaving do you want to set up a trade deal is Col Blimp in what deranged world?
November 13, 2017
Sorry, your grammar is so poor, it is dificult to understand your point.
November 11, 2017
Mrs May should answer this arrogance in two weeks time by withdrawing the offer she made in Florence. She ought to withdraw from the talks unless and until the EU is prepared to properly negotiate, which it never has nor ever will.
And John, you backbenchers need to make sure that the EU does NOT get a huge dollop of UK cash. If you don’t it will go down so badly with the electorate as will make the Tories toxic.
November 11, 2017
Andy, That is true. A bad deal where we give up part of our independence (Army, ECJ, Fish, CU, SM) and dollops of cash will reverberate for decades.
Ironically I think if we withdrew and started to implement WTO for all our exports, not just c60%, the EU would begin to behave. The WTO deal is still the best.
November 11, 2017
If you had a strong majority Government and enough MPs to counter rebels who’d rather Remain then yes that would be the card to play. It may yet become the only card to play anyway:
1 the EU cannot give us any trading arrangement deemed to be better than now, why would they?
2 the more protracted it becomes the more sympathetic “reasonable” they can appear by getting the EU27 to extend talks, since that brings them in even more cash
3 they can’t possibly agree to a deal that allows us unfettered access to global trade, they’d want to restrict our ability, as a near neighbour, to signing FTAs outside the EU that could undermine their protectionist pricing
4 they must deter any other member state from leaving, we must be seen to lose, somehow
5 similarly they will want to appear to have won the argument, that they tried so hard to get a deal but it wasn’t to be, oh dear, how sad, what a shame. They have no intention of striking a deal in my view as the points above are irreconcileable with a deal we’d accept
6 we’ve already said we’ll pay our share of the current budget till 2021 I think so we ought to get something for that in return but nothing has been tabled so we should withdraw or amend that offer.
It’s getting very close to the time where we reveal all in the Commons about the negotiating lines the EU has taken. Too many MPs think the EU is forever reasonable and we’re not, so time to call it as it is in Brussels, for example as seen by a member of the Brexit Select Committee ….
http://brexitcentral.com/meeting-michel-barnier-guy-verhofstadt-ive-concluded-no-deal-will-better-deal/
November 12, 2017
Mike P is clearly an MP, intimately familiar with what “too many MPs think”.
November 11, 2017
No more money.
Just leave now.
November 11, 2017
I agree. Most sensible people will. Not so sure about those charged with negotiating on our behalf. We can but hope.
Meanwhile a reminder of this: https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/200165
Seems timely.
November 11, 2017
Again more delusional crap from one of our foremost leaders and advocats on all things financial and economic- the EU does not care two hoots which way we jump- they are looking forward to their Christmas break now and will renew talks again in the spring, that is if if there are going to be talks?
November 11, 2017
Jack, That is what we expect of the EU. You see, we have pretty low expectations nowadays. No need for talks about a FTA anyway, the WTO deal is best for us.
November 11, 2017
There are a lot of things the EU does not care two hoots about – the welfare of Europeans for example – but our money is not one of them.
November 11, 2017
And the agreements about air traffic control, Channel shipping, customs and health inspections, transport of radioactive substances, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, validity of passports? I’m sure there are many others as well. Do we really say we don’t want to talk? The EU will be damaged if we do, but nothing like as badly as we will. No government could survive that outcome. The Conservatives would be out of office for a decade.
The Eurosceptics got us into this mess. They really need to think of a practical way out. That does not involve walking away from discussions with the EU. That is just their fantasy world. We need a solution for the real world. We need to move on from campaign slogans and actually start to do something.
November 11, 2017
There is no argument to reverse, the UK will just have to pay up what it owes and pay whatever it is committed to by way of promises made and already signed off on otherwise talks on a future arrangement will not start- but that’s what JR wants and is advocating so I don’t see a problem? Mrs May has already set the time on the date at 11pm 29th march 2019 to be exact and then we’ll ‘take back control’
November 11, 2017
They will not start anyway now and will not be worth the huge sums requested. So….no deal.
zorro
November 11, 2017
DancerJ, No money for no “benefits”.
November 11, 2017
Hear, hear!
November 11, 2017
John, exactly, it’s called the cliff edge
November 11, 2017
HenryS, No cliff edge – we use the WTO deal already for c60% of our exports.
November 11, 2017
Our government should never have agreed to the sequencing demanded by Brussels at the beginning of the Article 50 process. From that point on, where we have now ended up was entirely predictable.
There is obviously no chance of us getting a decent trade deal if we agree to paying their ransom demand at this stage. We now have no choice other than to tell them that, in view of their attitude throughout the negotiations, we have as little faith in their willingness to come to an acceptable agreement as they obviously have in ours.
In order to park the issue of money to one side, the only option seems to me to be to offer to go to arbitration and for both sides to agree to accept the outcome based on the determination of what is legally due from both sides. If they decline this offer there can be no doubt doubt whatsoever that their financial claims have no basis in international law.
It’s understood but not admitted by the EU side in public, that the Irish Border issue can’t be sorted without knowledge of what the final trade deal will look like. That is only common sense. They can mutually agree an outline of the objectives to be aimed for but leave the detail until the shape of the trade deal is known.
That leaves the issue of reciprocal rights for citizens. We can agree to move on that quickly however, child benefit should be available only to children living in the UK and the rights of family members needs to be limited. Of course, it goes without saying that there can be no role for the ECJ for legal matters within the United Kingdom.
November 11, 2017
Well said, JR! That’s what we want to hear!
A few days ago you said leaving the EU was a political decision, not an economic one. Quite! However, one gets the impression that the PM and the Brexit crew don’t understand that, and only have ears for the bankers, corporations and the EU! The Brexit crew seems to be setting the country up for a ‘There Is No Alternative’ to handing over a substantial leaving fee! (You wouldn’t print my thoughts on that!)
What a pity they don’t have your “Stand up for the UK” attitude! Time for you and the Brexit stalwarts to put the boot in before it is too late!
November 11, 2017
Oo, how shrill! It is really not working out how you claimed it would, is it? Turns out the UK is the weaker party here
November 11, 2017
Pierre, Gloating that your major trading party is so weak you think you can exploit us is not very sensible. It also tarnishes your reputation in the rest of the world.
November 12, 2017
Oh dear Pierre, no wonder we have had enough of the EU if they are all like you. It would be good on this date for you to look back and remember what the UK did for Europe.
November 11, 2017
So the question here is why Mrs May and Mr Davis are ignoring you. Why do you think that is?
November 11, 2017
There were two economic forecasts released this week, Woodford Funds and Oxford Economics. The Oxford Economics report stated that is the first year after WTO then the UK economy would lose 16billion in growth (note growth not decline).
So all Mr Hammond has to do is inject an extra 16bill into the economy to compensate, seeing as we get back 35% of GDP as tax revenues that is 11.5billion. Seeing as we would not be paying 10.5bill to the UK the extra cost to the taxpayer of compensating for the slight disruption is 1billion pounds.
What in heavens name is the Government doing even considering 50 billion.
Also on a secondary point unless this Government as a whole argues that Brexit will be a success then you may well be struggling at the next election. The doom and gloom merchants need to be countered by all in Govt not just the intelligent few.
November 11, 2017
It all depends on what happens post brexit. If the government opts for no deal and unemployment goes up or alternatively business’s are unable to continue because they don’t have access to the EU work force. Then the tories will be out for a decade and extreme left Labour will be in.
Where as if TM goes for a deal the risk of Corbyn getting in diminishes.
How much would you pay to avoid 10 years of hard left Labour?
November 12, 2017
A hard left government wouldn’t last a term yet alone manage 2!
November 11, 2017
You are quite right but is any one in our government listening?
November 11, 2017
Of course not. This is nonsense and the government is well and truly aware that there is no chance an agreement with the EU will materialize. That is bad for the mean UK citizen but that is beside point, because the interests of the citizen play no role in this silly battle between idiots and lunatics. The EU will survive, but Mr Redwood’s rosy future is -to use Corbyn’s frase- strictly for the few. If I had a UK pension I would be very worried.
November 12, 2017
I’d be more worried if i had an EU pension or if i had an account with a german ot italian bank
November 12, 2017
@ Brian T
but is any one in our government listening?
NO
November 11, 2017
It gets to the point where no deal is the only way.
Remainers really haven’t helped.
November 11, 2017
Remainers? – Please, call them by their correct name! – TRAITORS!
They lost the vote, now they are hell bent on perverting Democracy! With this total disregard for the ballot box, we might as well be in the Middle Ages! Then the statutory punishment for High Treason was Hanging, Drawing, and Quartering!
Perhaps, Democracy is overrated?
November 12, 2017
One should be calm. Stock up on one or two items the EU has given us which we cannot possible do without after 11pm 29 March 2019.
1/ EU Elbow Grease available in packets, can ,spray or roll-on.
2/ EU Pink Elephant Footprints, can be on an extremely large tablemat or on the base of one of my beer glasses.
November 11, 2017
As former British Ambassador to US, Sir Christopher Meyer tweeted yesterday:
“No self-respecting nation negotiates under threat of ultimatum. If EU27 won’t move to stage 2 in December, we should suspend the negotiation and let them feel the ticking clock, now that our departure date is to be enshrined in law.”
November 11, 2017
I make you right. But is there anyone in Government with the cojones to do so.
November 11, 2017
The public will be interested in what they might gain of lose in the Budget. But as for listening and taking seriously politicians, forget it.
Ms Rudd recently saying with a smirk to reporters ” The Prime Minister will deal with her” ” ( re: Priti Patel ). It was the tone one remembers from childhood with of a haughty ten year old spoilt snitch showing her power..Not fit for Power. Too many kids in Parliament. At least she does not glue or fringe to her eyelashes like one or two of her Honourable Right-Dumb associates….Just speaks well for the right to give out the pencils and exercise books.
November 11, 2017
She showed the same attitude towards her other cabinet colleague, the Foreign Secretary.
November 11, 2017
I assumed Barnier was demanding more money within 2 weeks simply because May has already agreed to commit more money within 2 weeks so the EU negotiators can take credit for it – just a pre-arranged negotiating ploy to keep the EU stakeholders on side by making them feel they’ve had a victory. I may be wrong of course, let’s see …..
On another topic, not sure why the Irish politicians are getting themselves involved in negotiations, they delegated all that to the EU so shouldn’t they they keep quiet ?
November 11, 2017
There must be NO MONEY. Mrs May has shown dreadful weakness so far.
But Theresa is keen to appease and I don’t trust her.
November 11, 2017
Talk about peevish ! N o Deal EU !
November 11, 2017
I agree. This may not be the best place to mention the defence meeting due for tomorrow but I have seen you mention defence arrangements with the European Defence Union after Brexit. . There is suspicion that Britain is offering to stay in the European Defence Union even after Brexit. See the Daily Express and the web site of Veterans for Britain. I am surprised that you have not viewed the position of this and I think you followers would be please to receive such.
November 11, 2017
The Express is being quoted!
November 12, 2017
Oh, it’s always a good idea to keep an eye on the Daily Express: you never know what you might discover. Only the other day I learned that breathing helps keep you alive, and also that it’s probably going to rain next week. Still nothing new about Lady Diana, unfortunately – but obviously we live in hope.
November 11, 2017
Ian Stafford, A very important comment. I wholeheartedly agree. The whole supine attitude of the government to the EU just keeps getting worse. I imagine Theresa May as a Dalek: “Appease!! Appease!!”
November 11, 2017
Very difficult to imagine May, Hammond, Rudd playing hardball. So far it has just been concession after concession with the EU dominating. The whole scenario has been very easy to predict. This transition period is ridiculous, if we ever leave it will have taken five years and the reported E60b initial demand met.
November 11, 2017
Letās call their bluff, walk away, make the WTO preparations, buy in the popcorn and enjoy watching them squirm as reality bites and they are forced into proper negotiations. Do we really want to give these deluded clowns Ā£50m to buy their stuff. The old soldiers who we have been paying our respects to today would be turning in their graves at how the remainers bow down to Juncker, Barnier, Merkel, Macron et al.
November 11, 2017
Trolling?
November 12, 2017
Yes you are
November 11, 2017
Well said Dave. I only said similar to my husband today. Think of all those young men who laid down their lives for the freedom of this country. Injured, disabled, burnt and killed and for what. They succeeded in pushing Germany back and making sure we were a sovereign nation but our political parties are giving Germany a free hand once again. What traitors they all are. They are beyond despicable. Can’t people see what’s going on behind closed doors?
November 11, 2017
agreed, press on with WTO option & tell the EU to jog on.
November 11, 2017
Just look at what a state the EU is in Migrant violence and sex crime off the scale . Trump was right to say ‘ Sweden’ , it is a horrendous mess there now.
November 11, 2017
The chances of agreement must be low not least because on the EU side it requires all 27 plus the EU parliament to agree any final deal. It would be extremely foolish to commit to any further cash offers – it will never be enough for the EU because they will be encouraged to believe they have the UK over a barrel.
The UK negotiating position has been materially damaged by the insistence of Hammond and co on an extended “transition” period at the behest of the CBI. It is clear that May’s Florence speech does not satisfy the EU (specifically Germany and France). I think she went too far in her Florence speech; she absolutely should not go any further. The UK will be “third country” when it leaves. It is time to start planning to be one.
November 11, 2017
I think the time has come to call their bluff.
Offer no more money, confirm that relatives can not come after 29/3/19, benefits may not be claimed on relatives outside the UK and that EU citizens will be subject to only UK law. EU incomers will be subject to our usual naturalization procedures which are fair and transparent. There will be a soft border in Ireland.
See if they walk. when they don’t we have the upper hand and can insist on trade talks commencing.
I hope this is what David Davis’ team has been aiming for all along.
November 11, 2017
Mrs May and DD need some help from the UK people to push things along. like blocking all motorways, ports, airports and train line into London, so they can tell the EU that no go this side of the channel, the people are insisting on full Brexit as the layout in the ref pamphlet. and was told.
November 11, 2017
We must bring the date of leaving to now. Stop all payments from now. Letter to the EU stating that If they want to have any trade deals then let us know and we will give consideration in due course. Then walk out. LET THEM COME TO US.
November 11, 2017
You are right Mr. Redwood.
The UK should not succumb to threats and bullying just as we donāt negotiate with terrorists and kidnappers and therefore should not commit to making any Danegeld payment until our future terms have been agreed.
Otherwise we could make a substantial payment to find we are only offered afterwards North Korean terms, for as Mr. Hollands said about Brexit 07/10/2017 :
āThere must be a threat, there must be a risk, there must be a priceā¦ā
It is not a puzzle as to why the EU has not published an itemised bill. This is because they know that the UK is not legally bound to pay more than its current EU budget commitments.
On the other hand the UK does not want to make known to the UK tax payers all the future commitments it has voted for whilst in the EU which are over and above the standard budget commitments.
These would include paying for further EU expansion, dealing with Mrs. Merkelās illegal invitation for millions of migrants to come to Europe (or to bribe Turkey to keep them back), paying for and supporting an EU army etc. etc. and I expect the EUās massive bill contains these extra commitments
November 11, 2017
A vote to leave was a vote against the best possible deal available with the EU. You voted against the best deal.
Mr Redwood and co have whined about the EU for decades. Youāre gonna soon have a lot more to moan about and itāll all be your fault. Enjoy. We will.
November 12, 2017
You live here then?
November 12, 2017
“Youāre gonna soon have a lot more to moan about and itāll all be your fault.”
(Flounces off.)
November 12, 2017
It is no surprise to the psychologists among us that Remoaners are looking forward with glee to their own prospect of excruciating pain and moaning when we leave.
November 11, 2017
We should never have triggered article 50 in the first place. We should have taken back our independence by repealing the 1972 Act and then offered free trade and friendship. Anything which needed to be talked about could be talked about from outside the EU.
We should not be paying a ransom, nor should we be allowing certain people to dress it up as bills, obligations, commitments, etc. signed off and entered into. We owe nothing. We are owed a very great deal.
November 11, 2017
On the subject of “It is a bit rich the EU…”, strikes me it’s a bit rich the EU lecturing us on the Irish border given that the Southern EU border (the Med) is complete chaos.
November 12, 2017
Ralph, exactly! There are no border checks between many countries in the EU so why the concern with Ireland or could it be another case of making life difficult? We drove from Spain into France with 4 shotguns in our car without being checked and were allowed onto the channel tunnel too without checks. A terrorist’s dream!
November 11, 2017
Having read all of the reports, there is an assumption here that the demand is “more money”. Is it? Or is it something else?
If a couple is divorcing and one of them offers to pay Ā£500 a month, but the other says “I want you to pay the mortgage” (which may currently be Ā£500 per month, but could change in the future and either go up or go down), then it is likely that an impasse could occur.
Is this similar to the real situation in the negotiations? Has the UK offered a fixed sum, while the EU27 are asking for the UK to cover specific items, the cost of which might go up, but could also go down? Such an explanation would make sense if both sides are looking to limit unpredictable liabilities in the future.
November 12, 2017
thing is this is not a divorce but us leaving a club and I don’t know any clubs that require you to continue paying your membership once you leave.
November 12, 2017
correct.
on the other hand there are now clubs that let you keep the benefits once you have left.
November 12, 2017
And if you still want to have access to some of the benefits after you have left, you tend to be asked to pay for them. Saying “you should let me have access for free because you’ll make money if you let me” doesn’t tend to work.
November 12, 2017
But we don’t want to be in the protection racket, we just want to trade freely as an independent nation once again. The EU keeps saying it is a beacon of free trade, unlike the wicked USA, so why doesn’t it practise what it preaches? Its own rules also say it must foster prosperity and peace on its borders. Why then is it trying to impoverish us? Why is it being hostile?
November 11, 2017
Seems to be uncategorised; why not try total drivel as a category?
November 11, 2017
On this Remembrance Day, the faithful might reflect on our nation’s distinctive history, and its relevance to Brexit. However, sadly, if ever there was a nation suffering from ‘confusion of face’, it is ours!
Symptomatically, the last two Conservative Prime Ministers have boasted of a radical redefinition of marriage among their partyās āproudā achievements, albeit this effectively disenfranchised all who held to the original as an article of faith.
One cannot but conclude the apparent self-destructive instinct we are witnessing is anything but a fitting outcome.
There’s an urgent need to rediscover the old bearings if the nation is to avoid shipwreck, even as it sails free of the menaces of EU hegemony.
November 11, 2017
If a gay couple want to get married it is not your business – it is theirs.
It is 2017. Get with the times.
November 12, 2017
It is no business of government to tell religious organisations that they must accept same sex marriage.
November 11, 2017
JR…How do you know the EU is demanding more money? Have you got some kind of magic ball or special insider knowledge? or is this just fake news?
Why is DD not giving us an occasional briefing on how the talks are going? Why do you not i sist in parliament that he reports to someone anyone besides the PM?
Why does Liam Fox not give us a breakdown on future trade deals he has lined up?
Why is IDS not explaining to us about the german car workers and when they are going to put pressure on mrs merkel like he promised they would?
Havn’t heard a word from Michael Gove lately considering he had so much to say before?
Please try to answer some of these questions answered first before being so quick to turn your guns on the EU again..because i can see now that we were horribly lied to about all of this..we have incompetent leaders at the present time unable to match the EU side and that is the kernal of the problem. These are not the talks leading up to the treaty of versailles when we had all the clout..yhe tables are reversed and we are now in the hot seat..lastly just take for example Boris..he is a disgrace and should be sacked fortwith but mrs may hasn’t got the say anymore with whatever is going on..so better have a good look at ourselves first.
November 12, 2017
The first lie that was ever told to us about the then EEC was that it was just a trade deal. And loss of sovereignty was only said to be ‘insignificant’. If that first lie was never spoken, a d we never joined the Stupid Club, then we would never be where we are now. Something for you and others to think on me thinks.
November 11, 2017
WHO plan should be plan A already.c
It is clear UK voted to leave. It is clear that contributions be paid until leave date, 2019. It seems clear that there is no legal basis for forward commitments. It might be argued that EDF obligation has to be paid. The UK cannot be obligated on pensions without a claim of its share of corresponding assets. The UK should receive it’s paid up capital and accumulated reserves from the EIB.
The whole narrative of UK paying a divorce bill is peculiar, why MPs and media ever produced this viewpoint is odd.
(On citizens, 3-4 million EU27 in UK, just under a million UK in EU27. Again up to UK to state and stick with position.)
All MPs need to get on the side of the UK recognise the situation and insist on Govt, sticking with what people voted for – leave the EU.
November 11, 2017
Autocorrect problems WHO obviously WTO
November 11, 2017
I would be most interested Mr Redwood, in your opinion of the analysis compiled by consultant Bob Lyddon , in which he takes into account several significant factors to arrive at a figure of almost 1bn per week total real cost of our EU membership. Specific factors include the net cost of EU migrant workers (30bn pa), Corporation tax deflection to EU tax havens (12bn pa), Import tariffs (from non EU states) deflection to Brussels (not specified), and UK additional contributions to the EU foreign aid program (2bn pa).
I have long suspected that our net costs have been somewhat understated. This looks like a bombshell.
November 12, 2017
You are wrong. It is satire..
November 12, 2017
Can you please scrutinise the trade deals with non EU nations to ensure we don’t get ripped off, or obliged to accept more intra company transfer visas printing abuse.
November 12, 2017
For what it’s worth all the professional forums are talking about the projected budget tax hikes for diesel cars and vans, and saying nobody will ever vote conservative again if these go through. Has the party learnt nothing from the last election and the robbing old folks homes to supposedly pay for their care while the feckless get it for free. Is the conservative party hell bent on destroying what is left of its voter base? Madness sheer madness.
November 12, 2017
No progress on stopping immigration. Why was this not the number one consideration for Davis? Instead he has stated twice, at least twice in the House, that the voting rights of EU citizens in Local Elections here should be protected. Also he tries and tries and tries but the EU will not agree. For someone negotiating our exit from the clutches of a foreign power, why is he at all interested in voting rights in the UK for foreigners? Also he is pleased to have negotiated that EU citizens can bring their extended families to live here too post Brexit..with a vote. We are being conned out of our land by Davis. Our first, second and last negotiating position with the EU is to stop immigration, all of it ,now. They should be given two weeks then we stop it with the use of force if necessary. Then we can talk about the bill for the forcing, the EU must pay us before any trade deals.
November 12, 2017
This is a false argument. The EU cannot discuss trade until the UK has left the EU. Therefore, the simple answer to this, is to remind them that the UK cannot discuss trade and subject itself to EU demands as that would be against EU rules.
Then we walk away.
November 12, 2017
Although it’s often stated as a fact I don’t accept that “the EU cannot discuss trade until the UK has left the EU”. If both sides wanted the Article 50 negotiations to encompass discussions on their future trade relations then the text of the article could certainly be held to permit that. It would even be possible to conclude and ratify a trade agreement provided that it was specified that it would not come into force until the UK and the rest of the EU finally separated.
November 12, 2017
The public does not understand why “porn”if it were on any computer and was not classified by the police as “illegal” should nevertheless be of interest to police who investigate illegality and, of interest to some agency called The Cabinet Office. Members of the Cabinet Office should buy their own porn. etc ed
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41893746
November 12, 2017
Porn on a works computer is a sacking job where I am.
November 12, 2017
However if it’s on a works computer which is accessible to many people in a shared office then it isn’t.
November 12, 2017
Anonymous
Get yourself a new employer.
November 12, 2017
Agree of course, no more money (surely we are not going to fall for Barnierās pantomime theatrics!). We need to hold our nerve and force the issue with the 27 next month, cracks may start to appear.
Meanwhile, I pray that HMG are working up the WTO option in earnest as we are surely going to need it. The EU I believe will make sure that any trade discussions will fail from the UK perspective – without WTO preparations in place we will have a gun to our head in March 2019 !
November 12, 2017
Exactly and just as I suggested two months ago. Why O Why are our politicians so behind the curve
November 12, 2017
Boris and Gove were absolutely right in emphasising the importance of preparing for a no-deal, we would be over a barrel if we get close to March 2019 without all necessary preparations .
No-deal is the almost inevitable result of this process of “negotiations” where the EU’s dishonest methods (see “new” Iris border demands suddenly cropping up) and demands for ransom.
If we work hard and smart on a no-deal, there is an outside chance that the EU will see sense, but we have to be independent of the EU’s decisions.
We better start acting as a sovereign country now or we will lose this option for a long time.
JR and his like minded friends have been fighting this battle for many years, I salute them and hope they will be resolute and unyielding on the “get control back” principle.
November 12, 2017
We did not vote on a WTO solution nor will it give us what we need nor is it as easy as John makes it out to be.
So altogether a pretty lousy alternative to a deal with the EU
November 12, 2017
Sorry, but to make the obvious point – it will not be a lousy alternative to a bad deal from the EU.
November 12, 2017
You can tell when the media and certain persons in the Cabinet are out to get rid of Brexiteers on whatever charge, when Gove is accused of…. protecting…. his friend… Boris.
November 12, 2017
Worst of all, they are saying to the Iranians concerned, extend your injustice to the hostage and we will get the British Foreign Secretary sacked. What are those Iranians likely to do then, and what else will they do to her in order to exacerbate the ensuing disarray here? Why are we so easily manipulated?
November 12, 2017
Since the EU is refusing to negotiate without a non-refundable payment being made first then it looks like the EU supporters in Parliament will be getting a āmeaningful voteā on the leaving terms earlier than they thought.
It will be whether to make an initial non-refundable deposit of Ā£100bn to start negotiations or whether to leave with no deal and no payments other than to pay our budget commitments to March 2019.
BTW there can be no ātransitionā if there is no agreed deal to which we are transitioning and it would be interesting to learn from the Labour Party how much they would be willing to pay the EU in order for negotiations to begin.
November 12, 2017
Have you noticed how the weather is getting colder as we get closer to Brexit? It’s getting darker too. Barnier was right. About the ticking clock. I awoke one day and the time had mysteriously changed by a whole hour.
November 12, 2017
Yes, I totally agree.
The EU is an organisation with serious imperfections – it now includes bullying attempts concocted in its world of unreality.
In order to do right in the face of this mean and pathetic onslaught, and for us to maintain credibility with the rest of the world, we must pay nothing beyond that legally required.
I am very concerned that our government may be seeking to mollify the EU by agreeing to PESCO which would put our armed forces at the disposal of and worse still under the control of the EU.
This must not happen. Any defence arrangements with the EU must not be unconditional, must leave out armed forces totally under the control of the British government, and any co-operative agreements need to be minimalist, written in unambiguous and clear language with clear limitations to their scope to prevent re-interpretation, and fully publicised. I believe no agreement with the EU is the safest option and any defence co-operation should be through NATO.