The pound hits $1.35

When the pound was going down we had daily reports of how worrying this was, usually ascribed for no good reason to Brexit.
The pound is now up by 12.5% from its recent low, but there is little comment. It does not normally feature on news broadcasts in the way it did when going down. Is this big move up also because of Brexit? Is it good news?

I have both before and after the vote said that the pound has been volatile against the dollar and the Euro all the time we have been in the EU, and will doubtless still go up and down once we are out of the EU. Its movements are not usually to do with the Brexit.

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68 Comments

  1. Prigger
    Posted December 2, 2017 at 9:49 am | Permalink

    The more I hear economic pundits on TV: the more, especially recently, you (if I may use the royal You ) realise they actually do not know what they are talking about.It is not their fault. Whatever economics they learned at Uni really had little to do with the complication of Brexit/28 nation-states/ Trumponomics/ a West that is awash will oil and gas thanks to fracking without the necessities of a Middle East with all that that means. The pundits hold a baton up to a graph of the Pound v US Dollar ups and downs way past their Uni professors’ ability to fathom.A New Economics! British!

  2. oldtimer
    Posted December 2, 2017 at 9:50 am | Permalink

    Given the relevant weight of US$ and £sterling circulating in the FX markets, the exchange rate between the two will have more to do with perceptions of the outlook for the US$ than the £. If I were responsible for a business today, my working assumption would be that the £ will more likely strengthen against the US$ than weaken over a five to ten year horizon. That would have different implications for exporters to the USA than for a domestic only businesses contemplating a future free trade deal.

  3. Bert Young
    Posted December 2, 2017 at 9:50 am | Permalink

    Apart from the huge debt relationship with the EU the state of our economy does not justify the £ ‘s weakness ; certainly compared to the Euro it should be much higher . Imports are related to the value of the £ and the average consumer would benefit from a revue .

  4. Roy Grainger
    Posted December 2, 2017 at 10:00 am | Permalink

    If they did report it they’d say it’s gone up because there’s more chance now that Brexit will never happen.

  5. ian wragg
    Posted December 2, 2017 at 10:01 am | Permalink

    For over 20 years I lived and worked in the Middle east. I was paid in dollars and the exchange rate fluctuated between 1.06 and 2.2 dollars to the £.
    We classed $1.5 as the average and paid into the sterling account when it was below this, nothing changes.

  6. Lifelogic
    Posted December 2, 2017 at 10:08 am | Permalink

    Indeed imagine how much better the pound could be doing still. This if we had real Conservatives in nos 10/11 and with the proper majority they would have won at the last election (had they put a proper low tax, low regulation, cheap energy, pro-growth agenda to the country instead of a vote tory and we will punish you one and a robot saying “strong and stable” endlessly).

    Instead we have a Corbyn light, politically correct agenda, high tax, big state agenda and have picked moronic rows with Trump over an irrelevant.

    The BBC currently seems fond of asking the question which is worse for the economy Brexit or a Corbyn government. An idiotic “BBC think” question. This as Brexit is a clear positive (if handled properly a massive positive) whereas Corbyn is a very rapid trip to Venezuela or Zimbabwe. At least he will too old by the next election unless these socialist Tories muck up yet again.

    The BBC types keep saying Corbyn is popular because he is “authentic” – what on earth is “authentic” about promising the earth to everyone knowing full well that he could never deliver and that his agenda would destroy the economy that supports the public services (as they call them). He is totally dishonest the mouthpiece of the state sector unions not authentic and genuine at all.

    May is a daft & misguided socialist, Corbyn is clearly a magic money tree, con man.

    • Ed Mahony
      Posted December 2, 2017 at 8:50 pm | Permalink

      @Lifelogic,

      Serious as Brexit is, the real problem is Corbyn. If Corbyn gets into power, this country’s going to be far more screwed (whether we’re in, our or halfway in/out of the EU). And we could be looking at a really serious economic, political and social meltdown.

      The best solution is to go for Soft Brexit (with control of borders) and then EVERYONE unite behind the Tory Party to make sure Corbyn doesn’t get in. And Brexiters can still be HEROES for challenging the extravagances of the EU. And then we can get back to building up our country again and making it great.

      Regards

  7. Denis Cooper
    Posted December 2, 2017 at 10:11 am | Permalink

    The movement of sterling is one of those cases where the trend after the referendum more or less continued the trend before the referendum. Page 24 in the report here:

    http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-8127

    Three charts there – sterling trade weighted index, sterling v dollar, sterling v euro – and on none of them would it be possible to deduce the date of referendum on the basis of the claim that it precipitated a major collapse in the external value of sterling. That is not to say that there was no effect at all, but the effect followed pre-existing trends.

  8. Posted December 2, 2017 at 10:17 am | Permalink

    It won’t be right until the dollar is worth what it was when I was a child, five bob or 25p in today’s money!

    • Prigger
      Posted December 2, 2017 at 7:55 pm | Permalink

      I remember that ! Four to the Pound. It seemed to last for ages.

  9. Rien Huizer
    Posted December 2, 2017 at 10:31 am | Permalink

    I forgot to add the rough currency movements in November:

    GBP/EUR : horizontal trend (but rather wide range): around 1.13 (hence no major movement up or down, rather an oscillation).
    EUR/USD: steady rise 1.16 to 1.19
    GBP/USD : steady rise 1.30 to 1.35

    All in all then, the most plausible assessment is that GBP and EUR did BOTH (and roughly equally) strengthen against USD. Probably not much to do with “GBP strength, confidence etc). The positive is that GBP has not moved closer to the GBP/EUR zone that starts with 1.10.

  10. eeyore
    Posted December 2, 2017 at 10:41 am | Permalink

    Bad news is because of Brexit. Good news is despite Brexit. Do keep up.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted December 2, 2017 at 8:04 pm | Permalink

      That is the BBC line every time.

  11. Epikouros
    Posted December 2, 2017 at 11:15 am | Permalink

    The pound is no doubt moving upwards in response partly at least to the positive effects of it’s lowering recently is having on UK manufacturing. I am very much in favour of exchange rates being influenced by the market and if it was just the market place alone then I would be content, but it is not. The euro tells us how debilitating it is when it is not as those nations in the eurozone who need a weaker currency are suffering because it is not allowed to and those who are gaining from it are doing so at everyone else’s expense.

    The eurozone is of course manipulated into this unfair situation by it’s central bank as is nearly every other currency in the world. So rather than letting supply and demand decide the appropriate exchange rate it is being decided by political expediency. This of course equates to exchange rates being used as a weapon and so frequently exchange rate wars break out. We are in one currently now so nobody really knows what the true rate should be and what or who is actually causing the exchange rate to be at the level it is. Perhaps there are those who do not wish the UK to have an exchange rate that aids her economy and are using their central banks to thwart it so punish the UK. There is no way of telling if that is true or not but we do know the mechanism exists if that is indeed anyones motive to do so.

    • Mark B
      Posted December 3, 2017 at 9:12 am | Permalink

      Good post and in line with my thinking.

      China has been accused of currency manipulation. Cutting of interest rate and money printing has also affected Sterling.

  12. Tad Davison
    Posted December 2, 2017 at 11:27 am | Permalink

    But people with a limited attention span will absorb the headline and little else. When there isn’t a headline, they remain unaware that the situation has changed. It’s how those with an agenda to push actually work, by being highly selective with what they put out.

    The most important thing initially, is for people to want to be better informed. Then they need to seek out a better news source than the one which continues to fail them. But whilst they are placated and preoccupied with their mobile phones and consumerism, there is no urgency to take in matters of consequence, so the insidious agenda-pushers get away with it.

    Such a shame they are compelled to pay for one particularly poor news source on pain of imprisonment, that is so severely lacking and so heavily biased.

    Tad Davison

    Cambridge.

    • Bob
      Posted December 2, 2017 at 10:41 pm | Permalink

      A debate in Parliament on abolishing the TV Licence concluded that it was good value for money, the best possible method of funding and the BBC is something to be celebrated.

      You can see the debate here: http://parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/d25effd4-66ce-4997-af96-db4b83265051

      • Mark B
        Posted December 3, 2017 at 9:17 am | Permalink

        If that was all true it still does not justify why such a fee cannot be administered via subscription and let the people decide what they want to watch.

        If I want BSKYB I still have to pay for the Tele Tax even if I do not want to watch the BBC.

        I want choice as I have other parts of the economy.

        • Bob
          Posted December 3, 2017 at 12:14 pm | Permalink

          @Mark
          A voluntary system wouldn’t attract sufficient subscribers to cover the enormous running costs of the BBC.

          • Tad Davison
            Posted December 3, 2017 at 4:25 pm | Permalink

            What’s that telling us Bob?

            That the BBC makes things few people want so the liberal intelligentsia insists BS is good for us and has to be paid for out of a form of compulsory taxation.

            We saw a similar thing with British Leyland in the 1970s. On my way to work each morning, I used to pass acres and acres of Morris Marinas stockpiled at Rolls-Royce’s airfield at Anstey, a car that few wanted to buy. Yet they went on producing them with a taxpayer subsidy rather than give the public what they really wanted. If ever there was an example of a failed philosophy, that was it. The BBC is little different in my view.

            Tad

          • Jagman84
            Posted December 3, 2017 at 9:00 pm | Permalink

            I would go for an alternative of an equivalent donation to a choice of charities, (nominated annually by the Government) in lieu of payment of the licence money to the BBC. The licence dissenters will not be supporting a …………. national broadcaster and charitable causes will be the beneficiaries.

  13. Posted December 2, 2017 at 11:32 am | Permalink

    I should love to leave a comment. However, ALL my comments have ”awaited moderation” and have never been included, even though they have been simple, respectful, innocuous and inoffensive. I shall not attempt to comment again.

    • eeyore
      Posted December 2, 2017 at 8:50 pm | Permalink

      Please do not give up. I can speak only for myself, but I find the wide range of informed and/or impassioned views expressed here a vital window on public opinion. I wish to know what you think.

      We should also remember that this site – open to all comers and moderated in person by a statesman of vast experience and seniority – is probably unique. We all get spiked on occasion. Editors’ decisions must be final and they cannot enter into correspondence on them. Don’t take it personally.

    • Mark B
      Posted December 3, 2017 at 9:22 am | Permalink

      Sorry to hear that Linda. It does seem we are losing good people on here due to others making repeat posts, and posts that are off topic. There by pushing people like you out.

      Very sad.

  14. Bob
    Posted December 2, 2017 at 11:39 am | Permalink

    Mr Redwood, when we voted to leave the EU we had a good hand of cards to play in the negotiations with Brussels.

    Your leader appears to be intent on surrendering our best cards one by one.

    I am aware of the risks of a change of leadership at this point, but that has to be weighed against the risk of not changing them.

    • Chris
      Posted December 2, 2017 at 9:27 pm | Permalink

      I would agree Bob. See this from Telegraph:

      http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/12/02/tories-war-european-judges-amid-claims-uk-heading-version-brexit/
      Tories at war over European judges amid claims UK heading for version of Brexit ‘that effectively fails to leave EU’

      I think many Brexiters realised this a long time ago and that is why we have been so angry. How can Tory Brexiter MPs just stand by? Words are no good as the EU steamroller goes on, and our weak politicians get flattened and the Remainers stand on the sidelines and cheer.

  15. Captain America
    Posted December 2, 2017 at 11:47 am | Permalink

    This is British Media Alice in Wonderland
    There is a BBC News discussion 11.30 am just now. Speaking a load of nonsense about the just passed US Tax Bill..they showed they were wholly ignorant that Amendments have been discussed, passed, alongside. But they criticised it as though they had not. Also totally incorrect about “mechanisation” replacing truckers jobs , the very opposite is true with a 90% turnover rate in any one firm’s truckers jobs with increasing payrates due to masses of unfilled vacancies.
    It is not that the BBC are showing differing opinions by way of balance. They really have not got a clue. Given the BBC is broadcast worldwide, they are a pure embarrassment or, as Trump says of the BBC “Here’s another Beauty!” ( ie Fake News )

  16. Lear's Fool
    Posted December 2, 2017 at 11:55 am | Permalink

    But on Brexit vote day it did experience huge unprecedented swings and fell sharply after the result was declared and that was to do with Brexit. I’m not saying it’s a bad thing if the pound falls.

  17. bigneil
    Posted December 2, 2017 at 12:09 pm | Permalink

    When can we expect being told that we are changing to the Euro? The current and the last PMs made it quite clear they want to exterminate England and the English from history.

  18. Andy
    Posted December 2, 2017 at 12:31 pm | Permalink

    So when the pound plummeted the day after the referendum was that, or was that not, to do with Brexit?

    Clearly is was all about Brexit. The collapse was the rest of the world telling us that they did not fancy our chances. The markets decided, correctly, that a small majority had voted to make us all poorer.

    That was what actually happened. If everyone had thought Brexit would roll in the good times and we’d all get rich the pound would have surged. It didn’t. It plummeted.

    It is also untrue to say the modest gains of the last few days have not been reported. They have. It has been mentioned by most of the newspapers as well as by the BBC and Sky.

    Q

    • Edward2
      Posted December 2, 2017 at 7:58 pm | Permalink

      Whist members of the EU the pound rose and fell by large amounts against the Dollar and the Euro
      Why was that?

    • stred
      Posted December 3, 2017 at 8:25 am | Permalink

      You are right for once. The £ bounced back to 1.13 from 1.11 when the city boys thought the Reverse plans were complete, the Brexit would be in name only and no difference until 2 years after ‘Brexit’ day. The bribe has been spun as a legal obligation by their friends in the media and they think all is fine. A chance to make another easy load on FOREX.

      They may find this goes astray when the truth comes out, along with the pitchforks. Wear stab proof underpants with incontinence pads.

    • Mark B
      Posted December 3, 2017 at 11:26 am | Permalink

      Dear Andy
      Try looking on the bright side. We could be part of the Euro and like Greece. But are not despite Europhiles telling us that we would be poorer if we did not join.

    • Tad Davison
      Posted December 3, 2017 at 4:56 pm | Permalink

      The pound was over-valued anyway. So by your measure then, the subsequent surge in exports and the gains on the FT index were also down to Brexit. Interesting stuff from a blinkered remoaner who only looks at one side of the equation.

      Please make sure you come back after we have left the EU and give us your take on things then, we could do with a laugh. But I expect as with all remoaners who bend with the wind, you won’t have the bottle.

  19. Anonymous
    Posted December 2, 2017 at 12:35 pm | Permalink

    It will be “because a soft Brexit deal is likely with the EU” since May’s capitulation.

    My motives for leaving the EU have shifted somewhat.

    I now want out because I detest Remainers.

  20. jerry
    Posted December 2, 2017 at 12:55 pm | Permalink

    But is this 12.5% rise good news? I seem to recall many defending the drop in the GBP after the referenda saying that the Pound had been over valued, making our exports to expensive and imports to cheap.

    The general media silence on this is more likely due to all the bigger fish that have to to fry rather than Brexit bias (as I & you have, the story can be spun either way!), for example the impending Royal Wedding, never mind the constant rubbishing of President Trump, the UK media, and politicos, gave far greater oxygen to that E… First group that Trump ever did), had his ill-advised Tweet been simply ignored few would have ever noticed.

    • Mark B
      Posted December 3, 2017 at 11:29 am | Permalink

      Actually it was B…. First group. Do NOT confuse English patriotism with British Nationalism. They are no way the same.

    • Miss Brandreth-Jones
      Posted December 3, 2017 at 10:23 pm | Permalink

      Quite Jerry we want to be strong , but we want to sell… moderation in everything?

  21. Beecee
    Posted December 2, 2017 at 1:23 pm | Permalink

    If it were not for Brexit bad news the BBC would have no news at all!

  22. Posted December 2, 2017 at 1:37 pm | Permalink

    Of course it is just more lies and deceit by the mainstream press John.

    Just like the budget deficit and the national debt.

    The accounting truth which is not ideological or political but accounting fact is

    A U.K. government deficit is just a pound surplus in some other part(s) of the economy. And the national debt is just that surplus transformed into an investment in UK Treasuries.

    At any time the Tories could come out and tell the truth but they don’t. They lie and deceive about it.

    So it is a bit of a pot calling a kettle black john. Especially the harm to real people these lies inflict. I don’t know how some people sleep at night.

  23. TedC
    Posted December 2, 2017 at 2:53 pm | Permalink

    As you say the currency movements of late have more to do with the shenanigans going on in the US than with Brexit. But there is no doubt that since the referendum time the Pound is well down as is the Economy- there is a sadness accross the land. The only thing on the up is that unemployment rates are down but that could be with a lot more people working in low paid jobs as well. Zero contract jobs are the scourge of this younger generation..If after the brexit business is completed we are in a position to import cheaper food and clothing..well all the better..we’re going to need it

  24. LenD
    Posted December 2, 2017 at 3:15 pm | Permalink

    JR is still trying to talk things up..well it will take more than talk to get us out of this mess-
    If the Irish border question is not progressed sufficiently then phase 2 the talks on the future will be deferred..of course there are those including the DUP who are saying we should walk away..all very well for politicians and public servants paid out of the public purse..but what about the rest of us trying to get by..if Liam Fox could only give us some information on those new deals he’s been promising it might lift the morale a bit..on the other hand it sounds very ominous with DD threatening to resign over Damien Green business..question is he too now looking for a way out? You have to admit none of this looks good-butis all much more important than the fluctuations of the pound vs the dollar or even the pound vs a basket of currencies.

    • Prigger
      Posted December 2, 2017 at 10:36 pm | Permalink

      The cheapest bread in my supermarket is 5p per 100g. The next 6.3p per 100g. The weights are 730g and 800g
      I really don’t know what people are talking about with “this mess “. Inability to remember and count, is the only “mess ” in the UK

    • Mark B
      Posted December 3, 2017 at 11:39 am | Permalink

      The UK cannot negotiate let a lone sign any trade deals whilst in the EU. The whole thing is a sham. I say this because I deplore lies!

  25. Ed Mahony
    Posted December 2, 2017 at 4:25 pm | Permalink

    A Hard Brexit would be really bad for the UK:

    – Many leading Brexiter politicians infererd we wouldn’t leave the single market
    – Hard Brexit doesn’t have the legs to last 10 or 20 years of economic decline (most people
    s number 1 concern is the economy, ‘it’s economy stupid’)
    – Hard Brexit (complicated as a ‘moon landing’) lacks the leadership (and overall strategy)
    – Hard Brexit doesn’t have the support of Parliament
    – Our country’s economy is already extremely vulnerable 1. High National debt 2. Low Productivity 3. High House Prices

    But we must press on with control of borders. Whilst aiming to remain inside the single market and customs union (which we will have to pay for)

    The UK’s REAL problem is that it lacks an economic strategy, in particular, regarding how to build up its High Tech Industry. The UK is too influenced by people in the City with retro, 1980’s economics (important as The City is).

    The UK could be great again. Everyone can come out a winner, including Brexiters as Heroes for standing up to the extravagances of the EU, if we go for control of borders whilst remaining in the single market and customs union. If we go for Hard Brexit, we could be looking at some kind of South Sea Bubble with out country going into decline for years.

    GOD. FAMILY. COUNTRY

    • longinus
      Posted December 2, 2017 at 9:32 pm | Permalink

      The campaigning for the referendum ended some time ago. Your project fear will never work. Low productivity and high house prices can be reversed with a sensible immigration policy, something we voted for. The country has been in steady decline since it joined the Common Market, we never voted for ‘ever closer union.’

    • Edward2
      Posted December 3, 2017 at 9:38 am | Permalink

      It is not possible for the UK to control its borders with the EU and remain in the customs union and single market.

      • Rien Huizer
        Posted December 3, 2017 at 1:39 pm | Permalink

        What is more important: “control over borders (define pse)” or “remain in the customs union and slinglemarket”?

        • Edward2
          Posted December 3, 2017 at 4:28 pm | Permalink

          You cannot do both.
          That’s the point.

          Loads of nations trade with Europe without agreeing to freedom of movement nor being in the single market nor being in the customs union.

        • Tad Davison
          Posted December 3, 2017 at 5:05 pm | Permalink

          What is more important?

          First, beware of the false dichotomy. We want complete political and legal severence.

          After that, we want to be able to trade with the EU as does the rest of the world or better.

          Hope that helps.

    • Mark B
      Posted December 3, 2017 at 11:45 am | Permalink

      Utter rubbish !

      The Single Market is a price fixing racket to keep us a captive market and prevent us from importing cheaper goods dom elsewhere. How can it be bad to go to an open international market and source cheaper goods?

      The UK will still trade with the rest of the EU and we will still buy their stuff. It will be no change.

      BREXIT is about governance not trade. It is about who makes our laws, taxes us and administrates for and on our behalf.

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted December 3, 2017 at 2:52 pm | Permalink

      “A Hard Brexit would be really bad for the UK”

      Well, here’s a study of just how bad Brexit could be in different areas of the UK:

      http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2017/07/27/cep-study-the-uk-areas-that-will-be-hit-most-and-least-by-brexit/

      and the author has focused so much on the geographical variations of badness that he seems to have overlooked the basic finding that it is all rather marginal.

      “The average decrease in GVA under ‘soft Brexit’ is 1.2 per cent in cities compared to 1.1 per cent in non-urban local-authority areas, and 2.3 per cent compared to 2.0 per cent, respectively, under ‘hard Brexit’.”

      I’ve repeatedly told you that in reality the economic effects of EU membership have been marginal one way or the other, but have always been grossly exaggerated by those who support it, and this is just another confirmation of that.

  26. Dennis
    Posted December 2, 2017 at 6:16 pm | Permalink

    Are you sure the reason is that the $ has not fallen?

  27. clear
    Posted December 2, 2017 at 7:11 pm | Permalink

    The pound going up and down is double dutch to me.
    Posted a few Christmas cards (early) today.
    Stamps are so expensive aren’t they ?
    Hope my cards arrive.
    My post usually ends up in the flats next door.

  28. Ian Pennell
    Posted December 2, 2017 at 8:06 pm | Permalink

    Dear Mr Redwood

    It is good news that the British Pound Sterling is showing signs of gaining strength: It is a sign that the International Markets have faith in how the British Economy is doing, they don’t believe Brexit is a disaster and the Markets believe the Government is tackling the Deficit and implementing some pro-growth policies like encouraging construction of new homes.

    However, thanks to the perceived weakness of the Government and their capitulation to the EU with big Divorce Bills in the eyes of the electorate it is looking increasingly likely that Jeremy Corbyn and his acolytes will be running the country in a few years’ time. The Left-wing Labour policies of a Corbyn-led government will damage the British economy, leading to national bankruptcy and a sharp fall in the value of the Pound (it would not surprise me if it fell below parity with the Euro in five years time – assuming the Euro still exists at the end of 2022).

    The current Conservative Leadership need to be much tougher in their negotiations – to be willing to walk away, rather than get pushed about by the European Union. That is because we will all end up paying much more than £44 billion if Theresa May capitulates and gives in to Mr Barnier’s demands.

    PS. I also have savings in an ISA with exposure to the FTSE 100 Index- the same FTSE 100 Index liable to collapse in value should Jeremy Corbyn win power: Anyone who makes that more likely by seriously annoying Conservative Voters would make me angry!

    Regards

    Ian Pennell

  29. Ed Mahony
    Posted December 2, 2017 at 9:40 pm | Permalink

    Dear Mr Redwood,

    Have to withdraw from your site (i’m v. busy).
    THANK YOU and APOLOGIES for any (many) stupid comments.
    Although i disagree with you overall about the EU, i agree with you a lot about it (and other things).
    I wish you an early Happy Christmas. And am going to keep you in my prayers (as i’ve done in the past) to thank you for the purgatory of having to read my comments.
    God Bless you, sir.

  30. Freeborn John
    Posted December 2, 2017 at 10:38 pm | Permalink

    The country will not stand for this botched deal that this incompetent government are signing the UK up to. For God’s sake do something to take May down. She is totally out of touch with public opinion and has demonstrated beyond doubt incompetence on a massive scale. Why is she still PM? She should have gone the morning after her botched election but it is inexcusable that she still be there having botched Brexit this badly too.

  31. Rien Huizer
    Posted December 2, 2017 at 10:52 pm | Permalink

    Mr Redwood, you show my second comment but not the first and the second is an addendum to the first. Not acceptable? Same reasoning as first but with theory instead of figures. Pity.

  32. Simon Coleman
    Posted December 3, 2017 at 12:15 am | Permalink

    The pound crashed the day after the referendum, so it was because of Brexit – fact. It’s now risen because of the prospect of the stage 2 Brexit talks finally happening – i.e. improved chances of a deal. If the government followed your advice and walked out of negotiations, the pound would have plunged, not risen. And as usual, you’re in a state of paranoia about news broadcasts being anti-Brexit. If you were really confident about Britain post-Brexit, you wouldn’t bother about such things.

    • Edward2
      Posted December 3, 2017 at 9:45 am | Permalink

      There are other factors than Brexit affecting the currency relationships.
      Oil prices.
      Economic figures for Europe and USA for growth and employment.
      Even the recent Catalonian and Korean political unrest have an effect.
      To see every currency movement through a prism of just Brexit is not correct.
      Although the initial result came as a shock to the market.

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted December 3, 2017 at 2:58 pm | Permalink

      One can be confident about Britain post-Brexit but still bother about the constant flow of negative propaganda. The problem is that the government does not answer back, it allows all the Remoaner rubbish to go unchallenged.

  33. Richard1
    Posted December 3, 2017 at 1:40 am | Permalink

    The German election continues to provide interesting news. In the latest development Mr Shultz, the SDP leader, has supported M Macron’s call for a Eurozone finance minister and budget, and for harmonised tax and welfare policies, as a condition for entering a coalition with Mrs Merkel. to his credit, Mr Shultz initially said that due to the terrible result achieved by the Social Democrats, the SDP couldn’t possibly enter government. But in the strange continental system of PR, however badly an incumbent party gets kicked in an election, they somehow stay in power, and policy stays the same. (Is this why all these countries have significant support for extreme quasi-fascist and quasi-communist parties?). If the German Govt does go down this ultra-EU-federalist route, it will make the UK’s choice very stark: clean Brexit or be a province of a pan-EU Govt.

  34. wab
    Posted December 3, 2017 at 12:21 pm | Permalink

    The day after the referendum, the large fall in the pound was trivially obviously a result of the Brexit vote. This showed that the markets thought the result was bad for the UK (as indeed it was).

    The recent small uptick happened because of the recent news indicating that the Brexit negotiations might actually be going somewhere (in spite of the donkeys in the government, who seem to have no clue about anything).

    Most of the other fluctuations in between were the usual fluctuations.

  35. hans chr iversen
    Posted December 3, 2017 at 4:38 pm | Permalink

    So why does the Pound swing back and forth to the dollar and the EURO depending on the supposed outlook of the Brexit negotiations?

    • Edward2
      Posted December 3, 2017 at 7:51 pm | Permalink

      It moves up and down every day, like it always has.

      Whilst in the EU the Pound rose and fell against the dollar and the Euro by huge margins.
      Now you say only Brexit affects the Pound.
      That’s ridiculous.

    • Eddie Hill
      Posted December 7, 2017 at 7:33 am | Permalink

      Brexit negotiations are one of the many, many things that can affect a currency’s value; e.g. royal engagements have been known to do so.

      There will be no deal in the Brexit negotiations because the EU doesn’t want one, and when Juncker says he FEARS Theresa May’s government will fall unless the current deadlock is broken, he is lying; he actively WANTS Theresa May’s government to fall, because a Labour government, for example, will start working to overturn the Referendum result.

      Where is democracy in these machinations? Nowhere.

  36. Eddie Hill
    Posted December 7, 2017 at 7:28 am | Permalink

    Indeed, £ sterling has always fluctuated against other countries and always will.

    In addition to Remoaners invariably blaming Brexit for every adverse fluctuation, people tend to forget about the post hoc fallacy, which is the apparently widespread belief that if something happens after something else, it has happened because of that something else.

    This is rarely the case, because there are always things happening which can affect currencies.

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    John Redwood won a free place at Kent College, Canterbury, He graduated from Magdalen College Oxford, has a DPhil and is a fellow of All Souls College. A businessman by background, he has been a director of NM Rothschild merchant bank and chairman of a quoted industrial PLC.

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