The fall in the pound mainly occurred before the Brexit decision

Today we will doubtless hear plenty of ill informed discussion about car sales and the fall in the pound. So let me remind people of what has happened to the pound in recent years.

It reached a peak of $1.71 on 6 July 2014.  It fell to a low of $1.38 on 28 February 2016, well before the referendum vote when the establishment and City were still all convinced we would vote to stay in.

It was only at $1.41 on 14 June before the vote, and fell to $1.29 on 7 July  after the vote. It is currently at $1.35. As you can see from these figures the pound has moved in big swings in recent years, largely unconnected with the referendum.  I doubt those who think the referendum is the main driver argue that the pound has rose 7% against the dollar last year because of Brexit.

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  1. hans chr iversen
    Posted January 5, 2018 at 8:18 am | Permalink


    On the dollar you are right but on the exchange rate with teh EURO it has lost significantly since the referendum.

    Reply The Euro has been strong against yen, dollar etc. Pound has stabilised in recent months against it whilst dollar has still fallen

    • Alan
      Posted January 5, 2018 at 9:27 am | Permalink

      Yes, it’s a pity we didn’t join the euro.

      • Denis Cooper
        Posted January 5, 2018 at 1:45 pm | Permalink

        Thanks for that, Alan. Presumably you and your friends would have had that idiocy lined up for us if we had voted to stay in the EU.

      • Leslie Singleton
        Posted January 5, 2018 at 2:50 pm | Permalink

        Dearest Alan–Why would we want to join a foreign currency?

        • jerry
          Posted January 5, 2018 at 4:53 pm | Permalink

          @Leslie Singleton; Is the USD a “foreign currency” in Texas then?…

          • Leslie Singleton
            Posted January 6, 2018 at 10:49 am | Permalink

            Dear jerry–Which could hardly do more to confirm that you wish the UK to become a State of the EU–Whatever else you want to believe, be certain that that is top of the list of what people here precisely do not want–Absolute anathema

          • libertarian
            Posted January 6, 2018 at 2:54 pm | Permalink


            Yes it is, IF Texas wanted to be an independent country again outside the Federal USA. So your statement is a bit off point. As the UK IS NOT a member of a Federal EU Country then indeed joining the Euro would be taking on a “foreign currency” and surrendering independence. As Texas has CHOSEN to join a Federal Country it’s not a “foreign currency” is it

            Fairly straightforward to be honest unless you can’t think straight

            Glad I can clear that up for you…

          • jerry
            Posted January 6, 2018 at 6:01 pm | Permalink

            @libertarian; I guess you don’t do sarcasm, nor context…

            Libby, that was my point! The Euro in such a circumstance would not have been a “foreign currency”, any more than the USD was to Texas back in December 1845, do feel free to actually read the comment by Alan that Leslie replied to.

      • Lifelogic
        Posted January 5, 2018 at 3:53 pm | Permalink

        Some truth in that (in a back door sort of way). Had we done so the economy and the Euro would have collapsed. This while under the appalling John Major and he would surely have been replaced. Hopefully by someone sensible who was a actually Conservative with a brain. They might have sorted things out. Then we might not have had to suffer, Blair, Brown, Cameron and now T May. We still await a sensible PM who is a proper Conservative and not a PC, green crap, red tape spewing, essentially socialist (ex? )remainer.

    • Ian Wragg
      Posted January 5, 2018 at 10:28 am | Permalink

      It’s difficult to understand why the Euro is as strong as it is.
      With the majority of Eurozone states being basket cases you would expect it to be much weaker.
      There was a good article in yesterdays Telegraph describing how the Eurozone growth was mainly an illusion sustained by continued QE.
      What’s going to happen to Italy when no one wants to buy their debt.

      • Denis Cooper
        Posted January 5, 2018 at 1:52 pm | Permalink

        Well, the euro isn’t actually that strong, its trade weighted index is very close to the average since the launch:

        4 Jan 2018: EUR 1 = 99.3188

        Minimum (26 Oct 2000): 81.5293
        Maximum (18 Dec 2008): 114.4429
        Average: 99.4634

        • hefner
          Posted January 5, 2018 at 10:34 pm | Permalink

          And the corresponding figures for the UK£ are?

          • Denis Cooper
            Posted January 6, 2018 at 11:12 am | Permalink

            If you are really interested then you can read the first three off the chart I have given below, upon which you have commented, while you could guess the fourth, the average since 1990, which I suppose would work out as somewhere around 90. However the fact that the sterling index is close to its all-time low over that period does not alter the other fact that the euro index is not particularly high but is just about its average.

          • Denis Cooper
            Posted January 6, 2018 at 11:21 am | Permalink
      • jerry
        Posted January 5, 2018 at 2:35 pm | Permalink

        @Ian Wragg; If some people were to take an unbiased view, as the markets do (unlike speculators…) it is easy to understand why the Euro is strong – for them it is an apolitical decision!

      • hans chr iversen
        Posted January 5, 2018 at 2:41 pm | Permalink


        Let us go through the list Denmark, Sweden, Germany, Netherlands, Belgium , Finland, Poland, Austria, Slovenia, Slovakia, Czech Republic, France, Spain are all doing well though some of them have still too high unemployment but they all ahve higher growth and lower inflation and lower balance of trade and government deficit than the UK in 2017, so can I ask gain which majority of countries are basked cases that form a majority?

      • Rien Huizer
        Posted January 5, 2018 at 3:35 pm | Permalink

        Maybe you know why currencies “float” . If you do you may also know how to explain a given exchange rate movement or level. I do not know of any experts who have that magic knowledge. I do know many who have opinions, often supported by theories. There are lots of interesting things to know abour exchange rates (for instance what a given movement does to import and export prices and related items such as competitiveness, inflation etc. But being able to predict exchange rates with any precision is not possible. What is possible is to make statements of the typoe “if … (eg a military coup) happens, then … (currency X) will appreciate/depreciate against.. (currency Y or a basket).

      • Iain Ashbrook
        Posted January 5, 2018 at 4:11 pm | Permalink

        The Euro is held up by the German economy. The Euro is used, by Germany, as a mechanism to depress the value of the German currency, at the expense of the poorer nations in the Euro. If the European nations had their own currencies, they would be able to compete with Germany. As it is, the Euro makes German products much cheaper than they would otherwise be.

        • jerry
          Posted January 5, 2018 at 6:21 pm | Permalink

          Iain Ashbrook; Run that past me again…

          “The Euro is used, by Germany, as a mechanism to depress the value of the [Euro], at the expense of the poorer nations in the Euro.”

          The EUR has a single value across the Eurozone surely?!..

          “As it is, the Euro makes German products much cheaper than they would otherwise be.”

          Yes, against other currencies, not against the the EUR its self, thus someone in the USA (or the UK….) buying widgets made in Greece or Italy for example benefits from the FX rate just as they do when buying widgets made in Germany.

          The only way Germany could gain “at the expense of the poorer nations” within the EZ is if their manufacturing costs are cheaper than elsewhere, more efficient by way of lower staffing costs for example, that has nothing to do with the currency though.

        • margaret howard
          Posted January 6, 2018 at 11:24 am | Permalink

          Poorer nations can’t compete because their goods don’t have the same reputation for top quality German goods do. Lower costs have nothing to do with it. Germany didn’t want to lose the DMark – they were doing well before the euro was forced on them.

    • stred
      Posted January 5, 2018 at 11:39 am | Permalink

      The euro also was falling before the referendum. There is an up and down blip but the trend was down. Must try harder Hans.

      Your last line should be ‘has risen’.

      • Denis Cooper
        Posted January 5, 2018 at 1:42 pm | Permalink

        Correct, as shown on your chart, and as I stated below with a reference to another chart, the downwards trend of sterling against the euro started in the summer of 2015, a year before the referendum. People like Hans only see what they want to see, which in this case only starts in June 2016; they won’t take the risk of checking further in case that contradicts their conclusion.

      • jerry
        Posted January 5, 2018 at 2:41 pm | Permalink

        @stred; You gave the URL for the GBP chart (against the Euro), that clearly shows that the GBP has fallen against the Euro!

      • hans chr iversen
        Posted January 5, 2018 at 2:42 pm | Permalink

        we were talking post referendum professor

        • Stred
          Posted January 6, 2018 at 6:28 am | Permalink

          The value we got in euros was falling. We are talking about whether the pound fell before and after.

        • David Price
          Posted January 6, 2018 at 8:42 am | Permalink

          The context is the blog which is titled “The fall in the pound mainly occurred before the Brexit decision”.

          Looking at an historical chart of British pound to Euro 1999 – 2018 the biggest impact was clearly the financial crisis in 2007 onwards. From 1999 to 2007 the GBP – EUR rate was 1.4 or higher, from 2007 the rate dropped drastically close to 1 in 2009 then started climbing again to 1.4 till 2015 when it started falling.

          I have no doubt uncertainty around Brexit has an effect which is one reason why the EU and it’s useful idiots are striving to keep uncertainty at a high level.

          • jerry
            Posted January 6, 2018 at 12:00 pm | Permalink

            @David Price; That chart clearly shows most of the losses were after the Brexit ref, not before. From 2009 the GBP had been recovering -admittedly slowly- from its losses caused by the international banking crisis, only starting to loose again due to the uncertainty of the Brexit ref date etc. – indeed there is a short spike of a gain during the campaign when Remain appeared to be winning. On the 10 year chart you can clearly see the start of the banking crisis, and the result of the Brexit ref without looking at the dates!

            Reply So why did the pound do well against the dollar and yen in 2017?

          • jerry
            Posted January 6, 2018 at 6:16 pm | Permalink

            @JR reply, You mean the GBP regained some lost ground against the USD & Yen, try looking at the 10 year charts!

            Personally, if high FX rates are good (not necessarily), 2017 is nothing to write home about as both 2014 & 2015 (respectively), but both are bad compared to pre the international banking crisis of 2008.

        • Denis Cooper
          Posted January 6, 2018 at 9:53 am | Permalink

          And only post referendum, Hans, because you don’t want to see it in its correct wider perspective. That is the point.

          • hans chr iversen
            Posted January 6, 2018 at 11:17 am | Permalink


            That is your version , just look at teh economic performance of the rest of northern Europe compared to teh UK in teh past 18 months, do I need to say anymore

          • Denis Cooper
            Posted January 6, 2018 at 6:52 pm | Permalink

            Once again, as I have said, a refusal to put the post-referendum period into any kind of context.

    • John
      Posted January 5, 2018 at 7:02 pm | Permalink

      Hans if you were invested in UK equities then you would have made a shed load on your savings and pension with the devalue. I know I did, it was brilliant. Are some of your savings in UK equities? If they are crack open a bottle or have a nice cuppa to celebrate!

      • hefner
        Posted January 5, 2018 at 11:13 pm | Permalink

        Well, it depends whether you were expecting this invested money as a down payment for a nice property in any of the EU27 countries, in which case it is roughly a zero-sum game. Anyway bubbly whether prosecco, cava or champagne is rather cheaper over there.

        • libertarian
          Posted January 6, 2018 at 3:04 pm | Permalink


          Really? Well funnily enough , I made a fair bit on equities and I’m just buying a large house and a small business in France , the price of property in the Dordogne is a steal right now.

          If you didn’t waste your money on expensive cruises you could have picked up a bargain holiday home in the EU too.

  2. Duncan
    Posted January 5, 2018 at 8:39 am | Permalink

    It isn’t leaving the EU we should be fearful of but the election of a Corbyn government or indeed the continuation of a government led by Theresa May. Both are an appalling prospect in their own unique ways

    • DaveM
      Posted January 5, 2018 at 6:28 pm | Permalink

      One may well lead to the other….

  3. oldtimer
    Posted January 5, 2018 at 8:51 am | Permalink

    Look no further than the introduction of more swingeing taxes by Mr Hammond, which came into effect in April 2017, for the immediate and dramatic effect it had on car sales – especially on cars with diesel engines and cars costing more than £40,000. It is but the latest example of a clueless Treasury undermining the recovery of a significant sector of UK manufacturing industry.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted January 5, 2018 at 4:12 pm | Permalink

      Certainly Hammond is totally clueless. So many taxes are way above sensible levels, this even for maximum tax raising (for that particular tax never mind overall). The aim should not even be that.

      The aim should be maximum good for most people and growing the tax base and economy. Stamp duty at 15%, CGT 28% on gains that are not even real, NI at 23% combined, Income tax at 45%, IPT at 12%, VAT at 20%, IHT at 40% over almost nothing plus council tax, car tax, commercial rates, green crap taxes, landfill taxes. alcohol tax, motorist muggings taxes …….. even a paper cup tax now! All this and for what? An NHS that cancels all its non emergency operations in Jan, endlessly blocked roads, aircraft carriers with leaks and without aircraft, absurd wind turbines and PV all over the place, the joke Hinkley, a criminal justice system that has largely given up, the joke HS2 project (pushed by the appalling, satirically named Lord Adonis). We are led by incompetent and utter donkeys.

    • Fedupsoutherner
      Posted January 6, 2018 at 7:57 am | Permalink

      Indeed Oldtimer in fact most of what Hammond has done regarding raising taxes has been done so that people will say its the result of Brexit and not blame the government. Do they think we are all stupid?

  4. Rien Huizer
    Posted January 5, 2018 at 8:56 am | Permalink

    You are only looking at the USD/GBP currency pair. You could tell the same story for the EUR/USD pair. In fact until Brexit the GBP was pretty much trendwise .
    a EUR/USD derivative, but a volatile one.

    Look at this chart from Reuters (1):

    The comparable 5 year GBP/EUR is here (2):

    You are correct that the GBP started its decline vs both USD and EUR much earlier but the comparison graph (1) shows a crossover point around the referendum date. Prior to that date, GBP tended to be relatively stronger vs USD and after the date that reversed. Of course FX rates are influenced by many things but the referendum event appears to have played a role.

    Of course the FX market appears to be more concerned about BoE interest rate policy (expectations of a -larger than previously anticipated – move buoy Sterling and vice versa). The trade channel seems to be unimportant, portfolio investor movements (incl hedge funds) tend to dominate currencies like GBP. I do not think there is enough clarity re near term foreign (Cabinet) and monetary (BoE) policy that one could say that the foreign policy (Brexit) dynamic dominates. After all, there is no basis for rational expectations, only for caution and that may well be reflected in the relative underperformance of GBP/USD vs EUR/GBP. I wonder to what extent a hard Brexit followed by a period of more or less successfull search for alternative trade arrangements might distrub the current pattern. It might be a single parallel shift of the trend or a rotation. It will not be a non-event.

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted January 5, 2018 at 2:08 pm | Permalink

      If you want to look at the sterling trade weighted index then there is a chart on page 25 in this recent House of Commons Library Briefing:

      The decline started in the summer of 2015 – which is when sterling turned against the euro, having already turned against the dollar the previous summer – and if we did not know that something of geopolitical importance happened in the summer of 2016 then we would be very hard put to deduce that from this chart.

      • hefner
        Posted January 5, 2018 at 11:18 pm | Permalink

        Would you say the figure on p.25 is indicative of great things to come?

        • Denis Cooper
          Posted January 6, 2018 at 10:59 am | Permalink

          Yes, I probably would, because with sterling so low at present there is a lot of upside available just to get it back to around its average.

  5. Bob
    Posted January 5, 2018 at 9:00 am | Permalink

    This morning BBC R4 linked the drop off in diesel sales to Brexit, but then admitted that uncertainty over clean air legislation may also have been a contributing factor. They made no mention of the sales of petrol or electric cars.

    On their website they provide a better analyse of the figures.
    Diesels -21%
    Petrol -1%
    Others +41%
    Total -9%

    Their website also mentioned other factors such as the drop off in PPI settlements which was glossed over on the R4 news bulletin in order to make Brexit look like the main issue. They really need to clean up their act.

  6. Bert Young
    Posted January 5, 2018 at 9:12 am | Permalink

    I witnessed the days when the £ was valued at almost four times its present level against the $ . Since then our position in world affairs has slipped and much of what we used to produce now comes from overseas . Technology and innovation is much more important today and I believe it will help us climb back up the charts .

  7. Lifelogic
    Posted January 5, 2018 at 9:20 am | Permalink

    Of course the pound would be rather higher still had T May has not thrown away her majority with her bonkers punishment manifesto. Also if the threat of Corbyn was rather less and if May and Hammond had a sensible low tax, cheap energy, bonfire of red tape agenda and stopped wasting money hand over fist on insane vanity projects, greencrap lunacies, attacks on the gig economy and absurd PC “equality” drivel.

    But what can you expect from someone so out of touch with the real world. A single child, daughter of a Vicar, a remainer who lied to the public about control of borders, still apparently with religion, a degree in geography and no children. A person who has never had a real, private sector job I understand. An economic illiterate who, at this rate, is little more than a warm up act for Corbyn. Her misguided policies just ape his but rather more gently.

    She apologises for the appalling failures of the NHS but offers no solution for a system that will never work efficiently as currently structured despite the fact that the solutions are blindingly obvious. Hammond has even just increases the tax on private medical insurance to 12% so you pay three times if you want to opt out of the NHS – exactly the wrong approach. We have dim socialist in control already, with far worse to come from Corbyn.

    • Fedupsoutherner
      Posted January 6, 2018 at 8:00 am | Permalink

      LL you really are correct on this one. His come nobody in the Conservative party can see this. Are they more stupid than the average Joe Bloggs?

    • rose
      Posted January 6, 2018 at 9:53 am | Permalink

      More “gender pay gap” today! Whenever I hear that phrase, I don’t just think about experienced pilots and inexperienced air hostesses: I also think of Andrew Neil and Emily Maitlis. Can you imagine Andrew Neil, or Jeremy Paxman, smirking and reading out that nonsensical report on the Queen’s wedding “in 1937”?

  8. Denis Cooper
    Posted January 5, 2018 at 9:45 am | Permalink

    I mentioned this a few days ago:

    “As far as the external value of sterling is concerned, its downwards trend against the dollar started not at the time of the EU referendum but two years earlier in the summer of 2014, while the downwards trend against the euro started in the summer of 2015, a year before the referendum.

    And in neither case is there any clear sign that something happened in the summer of 2016 which radically changed the already established downwards trend – as can be seen from the charts on page 25 in this recent House of Commons Library report … “

    • Rien Huizer
      Posted January 5, 2018 at 3:57 pm | Permalink

      You may want to look at this

      A better indicator of what is happening to GBP against all relevant trading partners. As you see, we are in a new episode of a basically horizontal trend with quite a bit of volatility. The period early 2013-middle 2016 (steady increase followed by sharp decline) was an anomaly. Of course the decline in 2007/8 was very large, much larger than the alleged “referendum” drop and came after a very broad shelf some 25% higher than the subsequent trend (which was effectively reinstated after the referendum (but not necessarily because of) . The financial crisis is not a good explanation because that was a worldwide phenomenon. A better explanation would be BoE (and Treasury) policy plus the acute banking crisis in the UK (RBC and Lloyds interventione etc). What was the tail and what the dog?

      • Denis Cooper
        Posted January 5, 2018 at 7:50 pm | Permalink

        You may want to look at my earlier reply to you, if/when it is published.

        • Had Enough
          Posted January 5, 2018 at 9:59 pm | Permalink

          I might give up politics

          • Denis Cooper
            Posted January 6, 2018 at 11:23 am | Permalink

            I wish I could …

        • Rien Huizer
          Posted January 6, 2018 at 10:52 pm | Permalink

          I think we are looking at the right numbers. But that 2007/8 thing is quite interesting as well. Shows what movements are possible when the outside world is really concerned. The refendum (from the time Cameron started to float the idea that there might be a (slight then) chance that the he might allow “the People” to practise some direct democracy whilst trying to blackmail the EU into even further exceptions. Just kidding..

  9. Jack snell
    Posted January 5, 2018 at 9:48 am | Permalink

    The dollar has fallen and it has everything to do with what is happening in the States with Trump economics..the pound has fallen before the referendum bdcauae of the uncertainty of the whole brexit thing ..then after the referendum again it fell and now very probably it will fall by another 10 per cent by the end of tnis year when we can see the consequences of thhe brexit thing staring us in the face..Brexit without a deal for us will be afraid on this Tony Blaur is onward and upward..continue with your old spin JR for at the end of the day its leading us up a cul de sac..i have absolutely no doubt

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted January 5, 2018 at 2:21 pm | Permalink

      The pound peaked against the dollar in the summer of 2014. That was still in the days of the coalition government, and there was no certainty that the Tories would even win the general election scheduled for May 2015, let alone that they would keep their word and try to get a Bill through for an EU referendum, and let alone that they would manage to get that Bill through without having to use the Parliament Acts to bypass the Lords with an additional thirteen month delay. And yet the pound peaked against the dollar in anticipation of a vote to leave the EU in a referendum which may or may not have taken place two years later …

      Provide some evidence that it would be “disasterous” if we left the EU without any special trade deal. Don’t just assert it because you’ve seen it asserted elsewhere and it fits in with what you would like to believe and so you can’t be bothered to think about it and check whether or not it is likely to be true.

      • Jack snell
        Posted January 6, 2018 at 7:12 am | Permalink

        Because Denis..before the referendum we were promised all sorts of new trade deals with countries globally. It was inferred that we could get any deal we liked with the Germans who would be only too happy to sell us their cars and the French wine growers would march on Paris if the EU did not make a special deal to facilitate them. None of yhis has happened nor is it likely to happen..what will happen is that talks will resume with UK still holding out for that dream deal of cherry picking our way as per IDS and Michael Gove but even with the help of Boris it will all come to nought. Then the Irish border will raise its head again, mrs may will insist on some concession to smooth the way, the DUP will crumble because of the Ulster farmers and the government will fall. This will happen in probably October and we’ ll have a GE before Christmas. The pound will fall, Corbyn will get in by a landslide, the pound will fall further, the economy will stagnate because business will not see a way forward, christmas shopping will be way down, and by the New year..January..we’ll have a new deal with the EU..transition period for two years followed by a single market arrangement where we will be required to pay everything get free trade for goods abd services but have absolutely no say in anything any more..we won’t even be allowed to go out foreign to do new deals without the say of the that not disasterous enough please let me know because I have more

        • Denis Cooper
          Posted January 6, 2018 at 6:53 pm | Permalink

          Still no evidence. , mere assertions

  10. James Matthews
    Posted January 5, 2018 at 10:55 am | Permalink

    Brussels Broadcasting Cooperation note. Motor Industry Spokesman interviewed on Radio 4 this morning attributes fall in sales largely to the effect on the market of diesel emissions issues and consequent government action. Adds Brexit uncertainty as a secondary factor at the end.
    News Bulletin at the end of the programme following the report refers to interview but mentions only Brexit.
    Spokesman on BBC television half an hour later takes a similar line. Interview then starts a series of follow up questions clearly inviting the spokesman to pin more blame on Brexit and urge the government to make more concessions to the EU, no doubt to be used for sound bites and headlines later. At this point I chose the off switch in preference to smashing the receiver).
    The BBC will never be other than it is. Profoundly and perniciously biased. I don’t object to that in principle, but people who don’t share that bias should be able to choose other outlets without being forced to continue to pay for BBC propaganda. It should be made a subscription service and soon.. If the Tories don’t have the courage to do something about it no one else will.

    • Bob
      Posted January 5, 2018 at 1:09 pm | Permalink

      @James Matthews
      The Tories are afraid of the BBC, they’ve had ample opportunity to deal with the problem but have always sidestepped it.

      John Whittingdale was rumoured to be clamping down on them in the last Charter review, but then they started spreading tales about his girlfriend, so he caved.

  11. margaret
    Posted January 5, 2018 at 11:20 am | Permalink

    I read somewhere as I skipped through news that the pound sterling is likely to increase in value after clarification of Brexit deal.?

  12. Nig l
    Posted January 5, 2018 at 11:21 am | Permalink

    In any event, my recollection is that over umpteen years HMG of whatever persuasion has been happy for the pound to fall to maintain our competitiveness instead of improving productivity, mismanaging the economy with an ongoing failure to invest instead relying on consumption and the City.

  13. Andy
    Posted January 5, 2018 at 12:05 pm | Permalink

    Brexit is a marathon, not a sprint. You’ve barely passed the start line and Brexiteers are already sounding increasingly desperate.

    The mighty Tony Blair has now added his heft to the debate. Along with the great Lord Heseltine, Lord Adonis, Nicola Sturgeon, Sir Nick Clegg, Ken Clarke, George Osborne, Dominic Grieve – we are seeing the formation of a coalition of sensible leaders.

    Compared to the rapid foaming mouthed Brexiteers, etc and ignorance this group will help turn Brexit sensible.

    • Longinus
      Posted January 5, 2018 at 12:45 pm | Permalink

      A nice who’s who of mediocrity & has beens. Yesterdays’ people.

    • matthu
      Posted January 5, 2018 at 1:05 pm | Permalink

      As our erstwhile PM the great David Cameron said at the time:

      “It will be your decision whether to remain in the EU on the basis of the reforms we secure, or whether we leave.

      “Your decision. Nobody else’s. Not politicians’, not Parliament’s. Not lobby groups’. Not mine. Just you. You, the British people, will decide.

      “At that moment, you will hold this country’s destiny in your hands. This is a huge decision for our country, perhaps the biggest we will make in our lifetimes. And it will be the final decision.

      “So to those who suggest that a decision in the referendum to leave would merely produce another stronger renegotiation and then a second referendum in which Britain would stay, I say think again.

      “The renegotiation is happening right now. And the referendum that follows will be a once in a generation choice. An in or out referendum.

      “When the British people speak, their voice will be respected, not ignored. If we vote to leave, then we will leave. There will not be another renegotiation and another referendum.”

      So we really can assess who is foaming at the mouth now, Andy.

    • Mike Wilson
      Posted January 5, 2018 at 2:07 pm | Permalink

      It’s funny – the list of people you provided is, in my opinion, a list of the ‘people most wrong about everything’ in British Politics in the last 20 years. Clegg! Osborne! Heseltine! Please, you’re making me spill my tea for laughing. Hey, if we don’t join the Euro it will be a disaster!

    • Leslie Singleton
      Posted January 5, 2018 at 2:56 pm | Permalink

      Dearest Alan–Why would we want to join a foreign currency?

    • James Matthews
      Posted January 5, 2018 at 5:32 pm | Permalink

      @ Andy. Your second paragraph – brilliant sarcasm. Well done.

    • DaveM
      Posted January 5, 2018 at 6:32 pm | Permalink

      Tony Blair? The most reviled man in UK politics.

    • Michael
      Posted January 6, 2018 at 12:41 am | Permalink’ll be a sprint if Barnier has a chance..the thinking in Brussels is that they are completely fed up with the ‘Brits’ and want them out ASAP. After March 2019 they will no longer have to listen to Farages old insults or nonsense talk and can make their own plans for the future. What plans the ‘Brits’ are going to make for themselves..i have no idea..michael dublin

    • Blue and Gold
      Posted January 6, 2018 at 10:42 am | Permalink

      Well said. Those people mentioned have loads of experience…far more than all the Wrexiteer politicians.

    • libertarian
      Posted January 6, 2018 at 3:11 pm | Permalink

      Andy Andy Andy

      Your list of the great and the good of the Remain camp are ALL VERY OLD baby boomers. Last week you gloated because they’re all about to die off.

      You are so funny , etc

  14. Newmania
    Posted January 5, 2018 at 12:06 pm | Permalink

    when the establishment and City were still all convinced we would vote to stay in.

    That is simply not true the Pound priced in the nightmare up to the referendum , unless you are suggesting it was a coincidence ?

    Reply The pound mainly fell before the referendum campaign, and during the campaign the City and the establishment were sure Remain would win

    • Anonymous
      Posted January 5, 2018 at 10:25 pm | Permalink

      Your comment at 12.05 was an even bigger coincidence.

  15. miami.mode
    Posted January 5, 2018 at 12:19 pm | Permalink

    Problem, of course, is that Remaniacs, of whom there are many in high places, will only talk about £ v € as it suits their agenda.

  16. Robin Wilcox
    Posted January 5, 2018 at 12:35 pm | Permalink

    Ten years ago it was two Dollars to the £.

    • Ian Wragg
      Posted January 5, 2018 at 12:43 pm | Permalink

      20 years ago it was almost parity with the dollar……. your point is ……..

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted January 5, 2018 at 2:29 pm | Permalink

      Painful for some of our companies trying to export to the US.

    • Leslie Singleton
      Posted January 5, 2018 at 2:54 pm | Permalink

      Dear Robin–My father used to call five bob a dollar, as in eg “lend me a dollar”

  17. Mike Wilson
    Posted January 5, 2018 at 2:01 pm | Permalink

    I wonder if people who might normally buy a diesel for its economy are putting off making a decision. I have a large family estate car – 1.8 petrol – that does 40 mpg. It’s not fast – but it is a supremely comfortable, quiet motorway cruiser. I’m not sure how quickly manufacturers can ramp up petrol engine production – but someone needs to start letting people know that petrol engine economy is a lot better these days – and no particulate filters to worry about.

  18. Richard F
    Posted January 5, 2018 at 3:21 pm | Permalink

    The pound fell after the referendum because the BoE interest rate was reduced.

  19. nigel seymour
    Posted January 5, 2018 at 6:16 pm | Permalink

    Sinn Féin

    What would happen if they took up their seats?

    • DaveM
      Posted January 6, 2018 at 12:26 am | Permalink

      Who cares?

  20. Blue and Gold
    Posted January 5, 2018 at 7:49 pm | Permalink

    Latest figures:

    The Eurozone GDP expanded by 0.8 per cent during the fourth quarter of the year, and finished 2017 with it’s strongest growth for nearly 7 years, unemployment fell to the lowest for 9 years.

    UK growth in the fourth quarter likely to be around 0.4 to 0.5 per cent.

    IF the UK were to ever leave the single market and custom union the Eurozone will steam away from strength to strength. The Wrexiteers will have egg on their faces.

    The car market HAS been affected by Brexit fears due to uncertainty. The Wrexiteers are as usual living in a fantasy world.

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted January 6, 2018 at 11:01 am | Permalink

      You could try providing some evidence rather than mere assertions.

  21. APL
    Posted January 5, 2018 at 8:11 pm | Permalink

    JR: “we will doubtless hear plenty of ill informed discussion about car sales and the fall in the pound. ”

    That’s fair, you deal with the £, I’ll comment on car sales. Which from what I could glean from the BBC today, with sales in diesel engined vehicles down by 20%, after according to the article’ November’s Budget which introduced a levy on new diesel cars”.

    Well done British Tory government.

  22. Had Enough
    Posted January 5, 2018 at 10:32 pm | Permalink

    Now the MP for Wakefied is speaking about a campaign against plastic coffee cups. Too many MPs in Parliament, too many!

  23. Repeat for Trump
    Posted January 5, 2018 at 11:06 pm | Permalink

    Skypapers Press Preview tonight.They speak of Trump , as always. This time about a book suggesting Trump goes to bed where he watches three televisions at a time and eats a cheese sandwiches. They speak about it in all seriousness as being one of their “facts”.
    They are too young of course to have watched the BBC black and white documentary many years ago of the inventor of roadway “Cats Eyes”. The BBC filmed him ( Mr Percy Shaw) in his house where he watched two TVs at once with his friends and had amongst other things cheese sandwiches. Well it was thought a little bit of traditional British eccentricity. He was afraid of missing something, from waht he said, on the other channel. No remote remote controls then.
    The reason why we of the older end are particularly convinced the BBC and SKYNews are Fake News is that…we really HAVE seen it all before 🙂
    Trump is brilliant!!!!!

  24. Javk snell
    Posted January 6, 2018 at 4:12 am | Permalink

    Nonsense to imply that brexit has nothing to do with the pound falling or rising against other currencies..brexit is behind absolutely everything that is happening in the country at the moment. There is not one business or financial institution that has not got brexit at top of their agenda..not one Council is functioning without an eye out for the possible repercussions of the fallout..not one household that is not trying to make sense of it..

    • Harry Bonker
      Posted January 6, 2018 at 11:33 pm | Permalink

      Yeah and I’m building an air raid shelter in my backgarden. Has anyone noticed how the slugs and snails are five times a large since Brexit???? Clearly there is Russian involvement.

  25. Epikouros
    Posted January 6, 2018 at 9:52 am | Permalink

    It does not matter what the information says there is always those who will twist it if they have to to fit their narrative. Those who back not leaving the EU have been notorious in this regard. They use ‘despite Brexit’ or ‘because of brexit’ with the same alacrity as progressives use isms and phobias to silence those who disagree with them and/or score political points.

  • About John Redwood

    John Redwood won a free place at Kent College, Canterbury, and graduated from Magdalen College Oxford. He is a Distinguished fellow of All Souls, Oxford. A businessman by background, he has set up an investment management business, was both executive and non executive chairman of a quoted industrial PLC, and chaired a manufacturing company with factories in Birmingham, Chicago, India and China. He is the MP for Wokingham, first elected in 1987.

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