Mr Trump’s economics

I am neither a US voter nor a Trump supporter, as I adhere to the view that it is best to stay out of other democratic country’s elections. His visit to Davos was a surprise to many, given his previous views about such gatherings. His visit transformed the event into a highly newsworthy occasion. We read that the many members of the global elite and the media meeting there, mainly people who regularly express anti Trump views, were reduced to following him, seeking audience with him, trying to listen to  him, and above all reporting him. So how did he do?

The President took the gathering seriously and led a large US delegation. He stuck to his mission, to make America great again. He stuck to his definition of that mission, which is to boost output, jobs and prosperity in the USA. He told the world the USA is open for business, and turned it into a global message by saying America first does not mean America alone.

Mr Trump made this trip  now he has something to show for his first year in office. His economic policy has achieved a major simplification and reduction of taxes in the USA. Already a number of large companies have announced they will step up investments in the USA and pay their employees there more as a result.

His relaxation of some banking rules will help extend more credit to those wanting to invest or to bring forward major purchases which they can afford with a loan. His energy policy is boosting US output of oil and gas. The USA should overtake Saudi Arabia soon as the largest producer in the world. It looks as if US growth will accelerate this year to above 3%.

He repeated that he wants fair as well as free trade. The USA under Obama used to impose penal tariffs on imports that they thought undercut through subsidy or cheating. Mr Trump announced similar action against solar panels and some washing machines. He is not about to wreck world trade or to seek to tear up unilaterally and illegally the  trade treaties the USA  has entered. He showed a continuing willingness to talk about a Free Trade Agreement with the UK. The UK government should press on with the detailed work to bring that about.

This entry was posted in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink. Both comments and trackbacks are currently closed.

102 Comments

  1. Prigger
    Posted January 30, 2018 at 5:58 am | Permalink

    “…I adhere to the view that it is best to stay out of other democratic country’s elections”

    JR even if you were as height-challenged as a Hobbit, that puts you still head and shoulders above Ex-President Obama for he did not stay out of ours, the referendum.
    Obama is the only foreign Head of State to directly threaten, or, even indirectly threaten our voters prior to a vote.
    Obama did not threaten as a warning an automatic world economic reaction to our voting. He threatened what he himself as Head of a State would… do… to… us.

    • sm
      Posted January 30, 2018 at 7:41 am | Permalink

      My goodness, if ever there was a failed messiah, it was Obama. My personal jury is still out on Trump.

    • Blue and Gold
      Posted January 30, 2018 at 8:02 am | Permalink

      Dare I say it, but I think President Obama knows a lot more about the world economy than you do.
      As one of our oldest allies he was absolutely right to give his opinion, knowing what damage will be done to the UK and World economies IF we ever leave the EU.

      Sadly you were one of the people taken in by the misinformation by the traitors and real enemies of the British people in the Vote Leave team, who now need to get back in their bunkers.

      • Posted January 30, 2018 at 11:14 am | Permalink

        Blue and Gold – what of the ”misinformation” that was spouted in Project Fear? And, of course, is STILL being spouted and poured forth as if it is the gospel truth, even though nearly all of the negativity has been disproved. It seems that YOU are one of the people taken in by ”misinformation” and are loath to let go of your misconceived ideas. It is always remainders who resort to insults and hysterical hyperbole – it is rare indeed to find any cogent argument made by a remainder about the benefits of ‘remaining’, as they see it.

        • Peter Davies
          Posted January 30, 2018 at 3:57 pm | Permalink

          Well said

      • graham1946
        Posted January 30, 2018 at 11:20 am | Permalink

        Still no facts then, just more insults.

        You haven’t played the race card in this one – you know – all Brexiteers are racists. Keeping that one back for another erudite contribution are we?

        • Blue and Gold
          Posted January 30, 2018 at 4:36 pm | Permalink

          I have NEVER called you people in the Leave camp racists, xenophobic yes.

      • Prigger
        Posted January 30, 2018 at 12:12 pm | Permalink

        Blue and Gold
        I wish I were as intelligent and so well-informed as you, then I could go out into the world and make something of myself. ..like a wax statue

      • Hope
        Posted January 30, 2018 at 2:38 pm | Permalink

        You cannot be a traitor for being a patriot and doing what is right for your country and allowing your own citizens to vote for representatives who can be voted in and out. Do get a grip, the traitors are those MPs who act against its own nation, its people, its people wishes, its party and govt. There are about 11 in the Tory party who coincidently negate the DUP and are using it to hold the country ransom to a foreign power.

        Read FCO paper 30/1048 and read how it was deliberately contrived to deceive the British electorate and then you might realize the depth of the traitors in the civil service who connived with politicos to disguise what was happening to the public.

        I think you owe JR an apology.

      • NickC
        Posted January 30, 2018 at 6:45 pm | Permalink

        Blue and Gold – now where has that come from? It couldn’t be because you support the EU blue and gold over your own country could it? You have answered yourself.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted January 30, 2018 at 8:16 am | Permalink

      Obama was met with almost orgasmic joy by the “BBC think” people, simply because he was black, left wing, PC and could speak in full sentences. Lawyers rarely achieve much in my experience they tend to get in the way of things happening or just argue about other people’s money.

      His idiotic policies damaged the USA hugely just as one would expect.

      Perhaps replace Hammond with Kwasi Kwarteng as he unlike Hammond is sound & sensible. Might even keep the BBC happy for a while.

      • Lifelogic
        Posted January 30, 2018 at 8:45 am | Permalink

        Please can we replace Hammond before he does any more economic (and political damage) with his Spring Statement now set for 13 March 2018. We have surely had enough of this economic illiterate.

      • Hope
        Posted January 30, 2018 at 2:41 pm | Permalink

        Obama who relentlessly tried to work it into BP where Cameron was forced to send an envoy to get him to stop. A big chip on his shoulder, he could give a good speech, but delivered nothing. Two faced………. who achieved nothing for his people.

        • Blue and Gold
          Posted January 30, 2018 at 4:39 pm | Permalink

          I think you owe President Obama an apology.

    • Iain Gill
      Posted January 30, 2018 at 9:41 am | Permalink

      yea but the British government of the day, and the bank of England, were just as bad

      spending our own money on propaganda that we could all see through

  2. Duncan
    Posted January 30, 2018 at 6:48 am | Permalink

    Your attempts to distance yourself from Trump is quite embarrassing though utterly predictable. It is the nature of the modern Westminster politician. The head never rises above the parapet for fear of having it shot off by crazed feminists

    We need a FTA with the USA. We have an Anglophile as president. Now is the perfect time to secure one. Unfortunately we have this person as our PM

    This person is called Theresa May. She’s the leader of my party. A leader elected by politicians like John Redwood. She’s also pro-EU and openly anti-Trump no doubt because that curry’s favour with the EU, the feminist clan and soothes her liberal left soul. How sweet

    we have a problem today. That problem is the Tory party. It’s become a party that’s lost its balls, its soul and its courage. We need radicalism. Policies that turn this country upside down. Drain the swamp? I’d obliterate the swamp

    Tory MPs know what they need to do to secure us a FTA with the USA and that begins with deposing this person as leader of my party

    • Chris
      Posted January 30, 2018 at 12:53 pm | Permalink

      Strong words, Duncan, but I believe you are right. Judging by reports in the Press today there is no hope of redirection of the “Conservatives” as they have been well and truly taken over by the liberal left. I also see that the Express has an article claiming that Liam Fox now says we should hand over the reins effectively to Remain and Hammond’s view. Is this malicious reporting, Mr Redwood, or is it just another example of the dire state of the Cons Party?
      https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/911720/brexit-news-latest-conservative-tory-party-theresa-may-eu-fight-liam-fox-jacob-rees-mogg
      “GIVE UP!’ Shock as Liam Fox says ‘LET REMAINERS like Hammond WIN’ Brexit fight
      PROMINENT Brexiteer and Government Trade Minister Liam Fox has told his Eurosceptic colleagues to surrender to the demands of Remainers and “live with the disappointment”, in a shock declaration….”

      • Hope
        Posted January 30, 2018 at 3:19 pm | Permalink

        Bernard Jenkins MP tried to salvage Fox’s comments on TV, but could not do so. If these are accurate words Fox has to resign for going against Govt policy and the public voted for. It also means his ministerial job and role are of no use to anyone. I am not sure why May has not forced Hammond to go on the same basis, other than the obvious weak token woman in office conclusion everyone is drawing. Civil servants need sorting out straight away.

    • Prigger
      Posted January 30, 2018 at 2:02 pm | Permalink

      I think the Tory Party is doing its best, actively or passively/figuratively in encouraging all persons of a Tory-Conservative -Libertarian disposition to emigrate to the USA. Europe. Did it ever have a Golden Age? Really?
      Even since WWII
      1944–1956 Guerrilla war in the Baltic states
      1945–1949 Greek Civil War
      1947–1962 Romanian anti-communist resistance movement
      1953 Uprising in East Germany
      1956 Uprising in Poznań
      1956 Hungarian Revolution
      1956–1962 Operation Harvest
      1958 Opération Corse
      1958 First Cod War
      1959–2011 Basque conflict
      1967 Greek coup d’état
      1968 Warsaw Pact invasion of Czechoslovakia
      1968–1998 The Troubles
      1970–1984 Unrest in Italy
      1972 Bugojno group
      1972–1973 Second Cod War
      1974 Turkish invasion of Cyprus
      1974 Carnation Revolution
      1975–1976 Third Cod War
      1975 Portuguese coup d’état attempt
      1981 Spanish coup d’état attempt
      1988–1994 Nagorno-Karabakh War
      1989 Romanian Revolution
      1990–1991 Soviet attacks on Lithuanian border posts
      1991 January Events
      1991 The Barricades
      1991 Ten-Day War (Slovenia)
      1991–1992 Georgian war against Russo-Ossetian alliance
      1991–1993 Georgian Civil War
      1991–1995 Croatian War of Independence
      1992 Transnistria War
      1992 East Prigorodny Conflict
      1992–1993 First Georgian war against Russo-Abkhazian alliance
      1992–1995 Bosnian War
      1993 Cherbourg incident
      1993 Russian constitutional crisis
      1994–1996 First Chechen War
      1995–1996 Imia/Kardak military crisis
      1997–1998 Cyprus Missile Crisis
      1997 Albanian civil war of 1997
      1998–1999 Kosovo War
      1998–present Dissident Irish Republican campaign
      1998 Second Georgian war against Russian-Abkhazian alliance
      1999 War of Dagestan
      1999–2009 Second Chechen War
      1999–2001 Insurgency in the Preševo Valley
      21st century
      2001 Insurgency in the Republic of Macedonia
      2002 Perejil Island crisis
      2004–2013 Unrest in Kosovo
      2004 unrest in Kosovo
      2008 unrest in Kosovo
      2011–2013 North Kosovo crisis
      2004 Georgia, Adjara crisis
      2006 Georgia, Kodori crisis
      2007–2015 Civil war in Ingushetia
      2008 Russia–Georgia war
      2009–2017 Insurgency in the North Caucasus
      2013–2014 Euromaidan and pro-Russian unrest in Ukraine
      2014 Crimean crisis
      2014–present War in Donbass
      2015 Kumanovo clashes

      • rose
        Posted January 30, 2018 at 5:55 pm | Permalink

        Dear Prigger

        could you please compile a list to dissuade anyone under forty from voting in a socialist/communist government?

        They know they are not allowed to flirt with National Socialism but they think the other kinds are fine and probably just what we need.

    • Richard
      Posted January 30, 2018 at 7:04 pm | Permalink

      The 2016 GDP of the USA was 35% higher than the GDP of the EU27:
      http://facts4eu.org/news_janc_2018.shtml#df1 (& scroll down one Article)
      The USA is also much more of a seamless single market (language, tax, regulation), particularly for Services than the EU27.
      And the current state of UK-US trade: http://facts4eu.org/news_usa_trade.shtml

    • Rien Huizer
      Posted February 1, 2018 at 1:59 pm | Permalink

      Do you really think Mr Trump’s personal feelings can influence an FTA that has to be ratified by Congress? Some people seem to think that a US president is like an old fashioned king (ie unlike the symbolic ones populating constitutional momarchies?) His office deserves special respect. The man or woman holding it is an ordinary citizen.

  3. hans chr iversen
    Posted January 30, 2018 at 7:02 am | Permalink

    We cannot press on with detailed work on a trade agreement as long as we are still part of the EU, we ahve signed off on that pledge

    • Edward2
      Posted January 30, 2018 at 11:07 am | Permalink

      Wrong
      We cannot sign trade agreements until we leave the EU.
      Preparation work can be done.

    • David Price
      Posted January 30, 2018 at 11:24 am | Permalink

      We can press on with detailed work on any agreement, we are only constrained to not sign one.

    • a-tracy
      Posted January 30, 2018 at 12:35 pm | Permalink

      Agreed Hans but we should not sign off on this agreement not to sign trade agreements during the transition or there really is no point agreeing to a transition period.

      If you gave your notice in at work and wanted to secure another job there is no court in the land that would stop you securing your personal future and that of your family, that cost is too high and would be a UK red line for me.

      • Hope
        Posted January 30, 2018 at 3:23 pm | Permalink

        Why would any right minded person want the European arrest warrant to apply after March 2019 without extradition challenge in the UK?

    • Hope
      Posted January 30, 2018 at 2:48 pm | Permalink

      Not yet until everything is completed, so we are told. Nothing agreed until all is agreed.

    • NickC
      Posted January 30, 2018 at 6:56 pm | Permalink

      Hans, You’re another one who puts the well-being of the EU in front of the UK. Art50 states the EU “shall negotiate and conclude an agreement . . . . taking account of the framework for its future relationship with” the EU. The EU hasn’t done that over the last 10 months. So we can reciprocate and negotiate with the rest of the world.

  4. Brit
    Posted January 30, 2018 at 7:21 am | Permalink

    There was US Whirlpool and Swedish Electrolux vying for leadership on the US market.
    On some models, they catered for different sections of the market as some Americans do not need nor can afford refrigerators and washing machines you can also use as a double garage and mobile home when not in use. Ultra cheap imports threatened the USA and Europe alike.

    I would never have paid that much attention to Trump when even as a complete outsider with “no chance” of getting a nomination past Level One but our Fake News and oddly many politicians here, drew unbelievable attention to him. One wrestles as to WHY????

    In half a century and more I cannot recall 17 Republicans and 6 Democrats being nominees and our media and MPs over and over in Parliament speaking about the ONLY nominee who stood “no chance” by every conceivable yardstick,Trump. Again WHY???

    Well, I like Trump, alot. I love extremely intelligent people and he writes a thesis on that one rather than ticks all the boxes.

  5. hans chr iversen
    Posted January 30, 2018 at 7:24 am | Permalink

    the latest government figures shows *% less growth in teh UK economy over the next 15 years with a WTO agreement as oppose to the current membership of the EU.

    Comments, please

    • Know-Dice
      Posted January 30, 2018 at 10:25 am | Permalink

      HCI, I’m sure that DC will be along soon…

      But may be something along the lines that the Single Market has only been worth less than 1% over all the years that it has been in operation, yet this “leaked” report says -8% in 15 years….I think you could get better predictions from reading tea leafs.

    • Richard1
      Posted January 30, 2018 at 10:26 am | Permalink

      Clearly depends on the assumptions. During the referendum the Treasury made such a forecast. then it came out they had assumed tariffs against UK goods going to the EU – but no vice versa retaliation! And no increase in other trade as no other trade deals. So a reduction in trade versus the status quo naturally meant the model concluded lower growth. If on the other hand you look at economies such as Singapore and Hong Kong – neither of which are in the the EU – growth is much higher than for any EU country, due to free trade and more market friendly economic policies.

      Rubbish in rubbish out, anyone who’s ever run a computer model knows that.

    • Edward2
      Posted January 30, 2018 at 11:10 am | Permalink

      Considering the repeatedly wrong predictions by the same people over just a one year forecast I have little faith their 15 year predictions will be correct.

    • ian wragg
      Posted January 30, 2018 at 12:11 pm | Permalink

      Drawn up by the same people who ran project fear. They cannot get the next quarter correct the same as the weathermen can’t get next weeks weather correct.
      Economists are in the same category as astrologists.
      According to the experts, London should be under water by now and the Polar Icecaps melted. Instead we have record ice fields and the Thames is slightly lower than 20 years ago.

    • Dennis Zoff
      Posted January 30, 2018 at 1:19 pm | Permalink

      hans chr iversen

      “Comments, please”

      The problem is right there…..you chose to believe Government figures without erudite research!

    • NickC
      Posted January 30, 2018 at 7:07 pm | Permalink

      Hans, Economists for Free Trade predicts up to a 7% boost for the UK economy by leaving the EU. I think they are right and the Treasury is wrong. That’s what the history of the predictions from the respective bodies agrees with too.

  6. Helen Taylor
    Posted January 30, 2018 at 8:03 am | Permalink

    You talked about Churchill yesterday, well it is time for the Dunkirk spirit to prevail now. It looks like all the cabinet is rolling over to have their tummies rubbed by the EU. The same Dunkirk spirit is out there in the north waiting for the signal. Where is the leader of the conservative party. she is covering in a corner. 17.4 million are being handed over. A complete and utter failure. If another new party emerges at the next general election, probably the service men I for one will moving my vote and if it means Corbyn getting in you have only yourselves to blame for leaving her in charge. The Conservatives are throwing us under a bus. Salvage what you fought for for so long.

    • Peter
      Posted January 30, 2018 at 12:17 pm | Permalink

      Yes, the so-called rebels talk the talk but take no action. They are sometimes called ‘risk averse’. I believe that means they have small majorities and fear another quick election.

      The better political operators always make sure to announce their loyalty to the prime minister, even as they offer Brexit advice that would be welcomed by most on here.

      So BRINO here we come. I feared this would happen and Nigel Farage, as usual, was correct in his prediction.

      • alan jutson
        Posted January 30, 2018 at 7:32 pm | Permalink

        Helen

        You do not need to have a General Election if you choose a new leader.

        May became leader without a general Election, so did Brown.

        Both chose to after a period in Office, both chose wrong because they read the Public opinion wrongly!

    • a-tracy
      Posted January 30, 2018 at 12:38 pm | Permalink

      We don’t actually know what Mrs May is doing, she’s a hidden figure, she doesn’t communicate with us, its all news-speak and nowadays over and over again fake news prevails and I can’t trust our major news providers. May needs to communicate better or hire a spokesperson like they do in the States (I’m fine with that) to orate for her if she is too busy with the nitty gritty.

      • a-tracy
        Posted January 31, 2018 at 8:47 am | Permalink

        I strongly believe C4 News should be renamed ‘C4 News and Current Affairs’ to let people know it’s not factual news but speculation and opinion. I’ve said before their reporting night after night after night of the situation in Calais and the lines of people trying to come to the UK to claim asylum and become economic migrants requiring housing caused more damage to the people of the UK than Nigel Farage’s photo in front of that photo – rolls eyes – you’ve got to wonder why Farage has just dropped the ball and walked away? Gove? Johnson? just why are they sidelined. Every time we have to listen to Adonis or Soubry (why do they get so much air time too? we should have the alternative point of view from Boris, or Gove or Leadson). I like JRM he’s a great debater but he wasn’t even in the main leave team.

    • Peter
      Posted January 30, 2018 at 12:42 pm | Permalink

      Of course, if she says ‘No’ to the EU deal and we leave with no deal then the rebels would be vindicated and a weak leader will still deliver a good result.

      I would be happy to be proved wrong – but my bet is still on BRINO.

    • Chris
      Posted January 30, 2018 at 12:54 pm | Permalink

      The only people who don’t seem to care about this disastrous situation which we are in, and which you outline above, are the Tory MPs themselves.

    • Andy
      Posted January 30, 2018 at 5:33 pm | Permalink

      Dunkirk is a good comparison for Brexit.

      Many thousands needlessly died, Britain was in full scale retreat, Germany was in charge – and a complete and utter failure of international policy was spun by a (then) weak Tory prime minister as being a success.

      Brexit: Dunkirk 2

  7. Lifelogic
    Posted January 30, 2018 at 8:06 am | Permalink

    Well compare Trump’s excellent Davos speech with the vacuous waffle & misguided, fluffy PC drivel from T May. Trump, whatever you think of the man, is doing the right things for the economy. Cheaper on demand energy, relax regulation. cut taxes, get the banks lending on sensible terms with some sensible deregulation, a positive “we can do” vision and cut the size of government.

    May and Hammond are dong the complete opposite more taxes, more regulation, more complexity in taxation, more restrictions on banks, more government, more employment regulations, red tape and costs, endless lunacy & government waste everywhere and
    Zero “we can do” vision.

    I was no great fan of Trump but every time I saw the dire Hillary I became more of one. In the end I placed a bet on him as I decided his odds were about 50/50 when the betting odds were about 4.5:1. He is doing even better than I thought May is doing far, far worse. Gove has much to answer for for his knifing of Boris.

    Meanwhile May’s legacy from her time at the Home office (as well as her open door immigration even to criminals and liabilities) seems to be:-

    68,968 robbery offences, up 29%
    138,045 sex offences, up 23%
    37,443 knife crime offences, up 21%
    1,291,405 violent crime offences, up 20%
    Gun crime up 21% too I think.

    Well if the police have given up on most crimes, thus we have few or no deterrents what did she expect?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-42815768

  8. Richard1
    Posted January 30, 2018 at 8:06 am | Permalink

    Another fatuous, leaked government ‘analysis’ trumpeted by the BBC says growth will be lower outside the EU under all possible outcomes. Why? Nothing is said bout the assumptions. If we have free trade with the EU but don’t send £10bn pa in aid to the EU, are free of absurd regulation restricting such activities as fracking and GM foods, and have a unilateral declaration of free trade with the rest of the world, surely growth is likely to be much higher?

  9. Rien Huizer
    Posted January 30, 2018 at 8:23 am | Permalink

    Trump’s reputation is clearly the most pressing issue facing the UK and the Conservative Party today. Well done!

    • Brit
      Posted January 30, 2018 at 12:00 pm | Permalink

      Rien Huizer
      He is American, not British. An American politician, not a British one. He lives and works in America not in the UK Parliament. Do stop obsessing!

    • Dennis Zoff
      Posted January 30, 2018 at 2:14 pm | Permalink

      Rien Huizer

      In a nutshell, well said…..priorities, priorities!

    • John
      Posted January 30, 2018 at 6:59 pm | Permalink

      The EU nearly signed off an all encompassing trade deal with the TTIP (Inc US) with no Parliamentary debate.

      No doubt had it done it would have been based on EU low wage economy and agriculture rather than UK services.

      This time we will sign a deal with the US that includes Services rather than placing agriculture at the top.

    • NickC
      Posted January 30, 2018 at 7:11 pm | Permalink

      Rien, So we’re not allowed to talk about Trump? For one day? Because you say so? It seems you’ve caught the inbuilt bossiness of the EU.

  10. Ian Wragg.
    Posted January 30, 2018 at 8:27 am | Permalink

    Meanwhile back at the ranch we have an unelected bureaucracy dictating the terms of Britain’s trade and immigration policy without a squeak from the top.
    We have a Chancellor who wants complete regulatory alignment with the protectionist EU thus locking us into the ruinous energy policy and miles of red tape.
    The prospect of Britain emulating the USA and putt8ng us first is a little less than zero.
    I do believe Trump will expose the EU for what it actually is.

  11. Lifelogic
    Posted January 30, 2018 at 8:29 am | Permalink

    The BBC now trying to convince listeners that governments do have a magic money tree. To prepare the way from Corbyn one assumes. With their usual economic illiteracy and tame economic “experts”.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b09pl66b

  12. Sir Joe Soap
    Posted January 30, 2018 at 8:32 am | Permalink

    You have to remember Trump is coming at this from diametrically opposite viewpoint to those of the established politicians.

    Obama, Blair, Cameron…we all know their names and we all know the sort.
    In Obama’s case, the prism was from poor folk in Chicago, again people who needed propping up rather than struggling and moving the country forward.
    Now we have Geography graduates like May, more suited to teaching or some minor admin. task, who then might slide through a bank or council chamber into important positions. The creativity gene is missing, and they’ve never seen poor people make something of themselves, nor had to struggle in business themselves. They have no idea how it’s done, the creativity required, the knowledge of figures, ability with money, tendency to take educated risks, willingness to take the rough with the smooth, push negotiation to the limit…

    We can say that Reagan and Thatcher had a sense of what’s needed, possibly Gorbachev also. They were/are all pragmatic and follow their instincts which were based on real-world experience. In Thatcher’s case, this was helped by her father running the grocer’s, her studying chemistry and Denis being an oil exec.

    So you will get different outcomes. Sadly we’re stuck in an age where these people don’t appear to be available.

  13. Original Richard
    Posted January 30, 2018 at 8:34 am | Permalink

    I don’t think Mr. Obama was the only head of state to threaten our voters ahead of the EU referendum.

    Mr. Hollande did a good job of that during a meeting with Mr. Cameron in March 2016 with his warnings of “consequences”, particularly in relation to the Calais migrant camp.

    I seem to remember Mr. Cameron smirking as Mr. Hollande made his threats.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35712463

  14. agricola
    Posted January 30, 2018 at 8:36 am | Permalink

    There is more to Trump than the left wing press and the great unwashed would like us to believe. The Piers Morgan interview was very revealing as was Trumps comments about the EU and the need for a much tougher negotiating stance over Brexit. Watch this space all you none believers.

    The transition terms dreamt up by the EU seem more like terms of parole. As a nation that has merely established it’s democratic right these demands should be dismissed in robust terms. Were Mrs May to acquiesce to such demands it would be her suicide note.

    Transition only comes after we know what we are transiting from/to. It is therefore irrelevant until we know whether we have a free trade deal on goods and services or are reverting to WTO rules. We should decide the period of transition and it’s terms. By terms I mean any payment commensurate with being half in the EU and our adherence to the strictures of the Free Market, Customs Union, and Free Movement. One year of transit should be more than sufficient. Remember the American mantra of independence. “No taxation without representation.” It is just as relevant today with respect to the EU, and our negotiators had better believe it.

    I now wish to hear Mrs May lay out our demands of the EU in very specific terms. Do they want free trade on goods and services or are they intent on WTO rules, with no restrictions on how the UK conducts itself in World markets after 29th March 2019.

    • agricola
      Posted January 30, 2018 at 4:23 pm | Permalink

      Why so slow in moderation, I am only stating the obvious.

  15. alan jutson
    Posted January 30, 2018 at 8:42 am | Permalink

    Thought his speech was certainly measured and well thought out, and for a change quite well delivered, certainly the figures for the first year in office are quite staggering. Whether that is all down to his actions or not could be debatable, but certainly from now on in its down to him.

    Was also interesting to view his interview with Piers Morgan, again an interesting and probably more natural response to questions, because he seems to trust Morgan, a lesson for many perhaps!.

    The fact that he thinks the EU is “not all its cracked up to be” and that they are “not trading in a fair manner” and that he “would have been much tougher over our demands from the EU and will be when he negotiates with them” came as no surprise.

    Compare:

    The EU’s recent response about terms for a transition period, should come as no surprise to our response for requesting one.
    We are by comparison becoming to look like incompetent fools in front of the World.

    • Mark B
      Posted January 30, 2018 at 7:00 pm | Permalink

      Not looking, are !

  16. Bert Young
    Posted January 30, 2018 at 8:44 am | Permalink

    Trump is certainly no diplomat but he is a straightforward individual used to his own ways . His priorities as a property developer have been to schedule affairs , test them against market forces and drive for a deal . These characteristics are not an easy fit into any government’s bureaucracy and the USA has found it difficult to adjust , however , compared to Obama – who wanted to please the world , Trump has delivered a real turn around in the US economy and therefore to the livelihood of its people .

    We need to get back to the sort of simplicity that Trump has introduced starting with lower taxation and putting our country first . Dynamism and clear policies are at the heart of any leadership – something sadly lacking in Theresa’s make up .

  17. Mark B
    Posted January 30, 2018 at 8:50 am | Permalink

    Good morning.

    Well I doubt thi missive will get deleted unlike yesterday’s as our kind host has taken off his rose tinted glasses. 😉

    He repeated that he wants fair as well as free trade.

    It is going to be interesting t see what he makes of the Customs Union and Single Market. Both of which the UK will still be part of once we leave.

    I have listened to the speech. The to things that shocked me most were, the amount of money being brought back to the US. Apple is investing $650bn ! The other thing, was the desire to improve the lot of mny American’s, especially blacks and Hispanics. It would be so nice if Germany was to send a fraction of that to their fellow EU Citizens in Greece, Spain, Portugal etc.

    President Trump is a man on a mission and he is going to embarrass a lot of other Presidents and Primeministers by just doing what he was elected to do. Serve his country and defend the interests of it and its people.

  18. Norman
    Posted January 30, 2018 at 8:51 am | Permalink

    Thank you for your posts on the Churchill film, and on Mr Trump. I see a vital link between the two.
    Behind Trump is a large unseen caucus of genuine biblical faith among America’s citizens, as of its founding fathers (despite the many tares growing amongst the wheat).
    What is now conveniently overlooked in what has become secularized and spiritually much-weakened Britain, is that Churchill also (for all his rough edges) was a man hewn from a bedrock of faith. Like Trump, he was fashioned through the prayers of others behind the scenes, such as his Nanny, Elizabeth Everest, whose devotion he always treasured. She taught him to pray and to learn the scriptures as a child, and doubtless fended for him unseen in her prayers, until her death in 1895.
    The Dunkirk deliverance was a miracle, which has been documented elsewhere, and is supported by the press reports of the time. King George VI had called for a day of prayer throughout the Empire, and the churches were full to overflowing. This faith was implicit throughout many subsequent phases of the war, such as the ensuing Battle of Britain.

    Adherence to biblical doctrine was, of course, much sounder in the Church of those days. But with a merciful God in charge of the affairs of the nations, genuine repentance will always be rewarded. Like America (only much more so), that’s what is now so desperately needed in our own dear country, and indeed the world. Although it seems such a remote possibility, there are still a few who are interceding: ‘Rejoicing in hope, patient in tribulation, continuing instant in prayer.’

    • Peter
      Posted January 30, 2018 at 3:33 pm | Permalink

      I do not see Churchill as a particularly religious man. Gladstone was probably the most recent example of a prime minister for whom his faith was a major influence.
      I agree that the country is more secular and even anti religious in some areas. However the church of England has long been called ‘the Tory party at prayer’. Erastianism has always meant that government trumps church in this country. Non conformist chief churchs such as those in Wales and Scotland always seemed more devout or passionate in their beliefs. Such churchs dominate the Bible Belt in the USA. I don’t know too much about protestantism but it has always seemed a bit lukewarm in this country. Lots of people like it that way of course.

      • Norman
        Posted January 30, 2018 at 10:33 pm | Permalink

        Thanks Peter. Yes, I know its a long and rocky road since the fires of the Reformation – that’s why I used the term ‘biblical faith’, which transcends denominational issues. Yet I still see the edifice of the national Church has served us well hitherto, and was the wellspring of many great movements (Baxter, George Whitefield, the Wesleys, Wilberforce, Bishop J C Ryle, John Nelson Darby and so many others), whose out-worked faith , changed the course of world history.
        On the question of Churchill, a recent book (God and Churchill) by his great grandson, Jonathan Sandys, and former Whitehouse aid Wallace Henley, gives a very insightful analysis. I agree Churchill was not devout in the accepted sense, but he certainly took seriously what he considered to be the defence of Christian Civilization, and I feel sure he was raised up for that great work in one of our darkest hours.

    • The Prangwizard
      Posted January 30, 2018 at 6:42 pm | Permalink

      Thank you, Norman.

  19. Denis Cooper
    Posted January 30, 2018 at 9:02 am | Permalink

    As I have said before, repeatedly, I am not expecting to get a huge amount from any new trade deal with the USA or with any other single country outside the EU; taken altogether they may roughly counterbalance any small losses from leaving the EU.

    http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/01/25/transition-to-what/#comment-914748

    “I’m not relying on Liam Fox to save us from hard times, I’m relying on the marginal overall economic importance of EU membership to minimise any relative hardship we may experience. And I say only “relative” hardship because it could be for example that a decade after we have left the EU our GDP will have increased, but only by 20% instead of by 22%. Equally it could be that countervailing positive consequences of Brexit, such as better regulation or new trade deals around the world or indeed just the savings on the contributions to the EU budget, might help to push GDP up by 24% rather than just 22%.”

    Except of course we now “know” from a secret analysis which one of David Davis’s loyal and enthusiastic team of civil servants has leaked to the media that the losses might not be just 2%, they might be 8% if we leave without a trade deal and revert to WTO terms.

    Oddly enough this is pretty much what George Osborne was saying nearly two years ago before the referendum, based on studies made by his Treasury experts.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/517415/treasury_analysis_economic_impact_of_eu_membership_web.pdf

    According to the central estimates in that April 2016 report after 15 years the EEA option could have lost us 3.8% of GDP, while the WTO option could have lost us 7.5% of GDP, and a “negotiated bilateral agreement” could have lost us 3.8% of GDP, all compared to what Osborne said was the wise and sensible option of just staying in the EU.

    Those Treasury studies which have been torn to shreds in a book that I tried to mention before Christmas, finally getting the comment published here a week ago:

    http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/01/23/eu-negotiations/#comment-914191

    “… its critical analysis of the Treasury Report produced before the referendum runs to nearly nine pages, over which it highlights more than twenty significant inadequacies which make the report entirely unreliable – as we are increasingly seeing.”

    Yet this is the Report that George Osborne loudly endorsed and used to tell us that we must be “economically illiterate” to support withdrawal from the EU.”

    So we are again , JR, the best part of two years later, and campaigners on the Remain side, including those employed in the civil service, are still being allowed to spread their flawed predictions of catastrophe and the only reply from the government has been a feeble plea that they hope to get a good bespoke bilateral trade deal which has not been mentioned in the leaked analysis … as I said yesterday, Michel Barnier must be laughing at us.

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted January 30, 2018 at 9:10 am | Permalink

      “… and a “negotiated bilateral agreement” could have lost us 6.2% of GDP … ”

      Which by their reckoning would not be much better than defaulting to WTO terms with its 7.5% loss, so why even bother with it?

  20. The PrangWizard
    Posted January 30, 2018 at 9:03 am | Permalink

    Maybe I cannot be a supporter of President Trump as I am not a US citizen, but I can be an admirer and I am. I have family in the US with a son-in-law and two grand-daughters and I can share in American success through them.

    He has made two speeches of a similar nature, recently at Davos and previously a couple of months ago, maybe at the UN. They were both inspiring and I grieve that we don’t have leadership like him here. All we have is a PM who takes pride in insulting him in public but she is no doubt glad to be a heroine to social justice warriors and Trump haters everywhere. What was that animated film of a few years ago called, Despicable May, was it?

    I expect that Mr Trump will be a two term President, if he wishes, but even if not, he has set the trend already and I doubt that the Democrats will be able to find anyone to counter what he has set in train. Yet two terms will I think be preferable. I am hopeful he may even now start to influence our political atmosphere for the better by helping us get rid of May. We need someone urgently to replace her and her supporters who are willing and able to depress even the most optimistic and positive of people, quite apart from her appeasement of the EU’s threats to the detriment of our clear democratic will.

    I also saw her do a piece of her robotics to camera at Davos when she said she was to talk to the President about what should be done about the problems posed by North Korea, Iran and Syria, attempting to give the impression that she was strong. Did she manage to see him? If I were the President I would have found myself with other appointments. I found it acutely embarrassing as she has no power to wield anyway. She is a something of a fantasist.

    We should find it interesting at the very least that Kim Jung Wrongun has gone very quiet since President Trump alone made it clear he was playing with fire to threaten the US.

  21. Sean
    Posted January 30, 2018 at 9:07 am | Permalink

    It’s a shame, that we don’t have anyone like Trump.
    All we have are self serving politicians with no backbone.

    Look at so called Brexit, May said Brexit means Brexit, whatever! I’m think I shall give up voting as it diesnt count for anything.

    • Mitchel
      Posted January 30, 2018 at 11:45 am | Permalink

      The Red,White & She-Blew-it Brexit you mean!

    • Lifelogic
      Posted January 30, 2018 at 12:54 pm | Permalink

      Career politicians with no vision or convictions and who just want a job, pension, expenses and a few well paid consultancies on the side. This seems to be the norm.

      • Mark B
        Posted January 30, 2018 at 7:42 pm | Permalink

        Yep ! I agree with you on that.

  22. oldtimer
    Posted January 30, 2018 at 9:19 am | Permalink

    His answer to a question after his speech was revealing. He referred to the unexpected consequences of the tax cut, namely how some businesses were choosing to spend it. That and the repatriation of cash held overseas, such as $250 billion by Apple, will be a good test of the idea that tax cuts are good for you. The UK should take close note of how this works out.

  23. Cobwatch
    Posted January 30, 2018 at 9:35 am | Permalink

    I like Trump. It is fashionable to demonstrate your supposed intellectual and moral superiority with constant denigration. Trump is succeeding, and the howling becomes more bitter and desperate. Obama’s world is slowly collapsing, and people will be able to see how nasty it truly was. All the CEOs that knock Trump in public enjoy his economic rigour. The hypocrisy is staggering.

  24. Iain Gill
    Posted January 30, 2018 at 9:38 am | Permalink

    yes but he is also making things more equal between the US and foreign workforces.

    so for instance he is putting tariffs in place on goods from South America to compensate for the reasons they can undercut the US workforce, such as less and cheaper anti pollution gear, it is these tariffs (or threat of them) which is making car makers (for instance) move production back into the USA from South America

    he is pushing back on the import of foreign workers being used to undercut locals, so H1B visas which are used mainly to import cheaper IT staff from India are i) having the rules actually enforced for once and ii) being tightened up

    we could do with a Trump here

    • Ed Mahony
      Posted January 30, 2018 at 11:06 am | Permalink

      ‘so for instance he is putting tariffs in place on goods from South America’

      – that’s exactly what the EU does (and for which free-traders here in the UK cry foul).

      Perhaps we need to be more pragmatic about free trade. It has it’s positives and negatives. EU protectionism does protect us to an important degree from aggressive, foreign markets (Trump admitted that the EU is a pain in the ass to American companies – let’s hope the EU isn’t a pain in the ass to British companies if/when we leave the single market). Whilst at the same time not so much that we can’t trade successfully outside the EU (Germany does it extremely well, even though it is helped by the euro).

      There is also the point about patriotism. If our economy is flooded by foreign governments owning out trains and foreign companies owning our car industry and so on, it does impact on patriotism. Although there many negatives about the German car industry (and the German government getting involved) there are also many positives. The German car industry provides great paying, high-skilled jobs that provide a lot of job satisfaction and high productivity. Great. High exports. Great. A relative amount of economic stability. Great. As well as sense of patriotism. Great.

      • Iain Gill
        Posted January 30, 2018 at 3:45 pm | Permalink

        yes but the German car industry is protected by real and threatened quotas against cars from Japan, without that there would be no German car industry.

        you see Government (and EU) manipulation is woven into everything.

        free markets fail because all we do is export our most polluting processes to other countries who do the same processes with less anti pollution gear (and thereby cheaper), and do not reduce net world pollution.

        we export our dangerous processes to places happy to do them without the most expensive health and safety gear.

        we export our processes to countries prepared to use software without paying the licence fees.

        and then import this stuff in massive numbers.

        that is our day to day reality. nothing is good about this for the British workforce.

        • Ed Mahony
          Posted January 31, 2018 at 12:39 pm | Permalink

          Iain,

          ‘yes but the German car industry is protected by real and threatened quotas against cars from Japan’ – the question is does this benefit Germany overall or not?

          I think it certainly benefits Germany overall.
          Also, Germans good at selling their cars all over the place – including into Japan!
          And the Germans got a great balance between high quality cars that people want to buy and building them as efficiently as possible.
          Again, the German car industry is great to Germany in terms of: revenue, exports, productivity, work satisfaction + patriotism.

          I think we Brits just need to eat a bit more ‘umble pie and look and learn what the Germans are doing so well here (and in other areas of the high tech / technology sector). And sure, German car industry far from perfect as well.
          Regards

      • Mark B
        Posted January 30, 2018 at 7:53 pm | Permalink

        Germany burns the dirtiest coal there is, while we close ours and burn wood pellets instead and build expensive and ineffective windmills, leading to the closure of industry. Germany also subsidises energy for its manufacturing. And don’t get me started on the EURO

        So not quite the same.

  25. Ed Mahony
    Posted January 30, 2018 at 9:57 am | Permalink

    Trump’s just riding a cycle of boom + bust. Question is to what degree has he added to the boom/bust cycle. Yes to strong and stable. No to boom + bust.

    Glad to see Trump oppose abortion. How can a civilised country support the death of unborn children? This is the real evil of social liberalism for me (as well as aggressive feminism and aggressive trans gender policies etc). Obama, as a social liberal, scored really bad here.

    On the other hand, Trump has done nothing to promote the importance of the family. And how to be a gentleman towards women. And respectful towards non Americans. Obama scored really well here.

    • Brit
      Posted January 30, 2018 at 12:06 pm | Permalink

      Trump IS respectful towards non-Americans. What are you talking about? He’s married and had children with two non-Americans. What do you wish him to do , have “I like foreigners” tattooed on his bottom?

      • Ed Mahony
        Posted January 30, 2018 at 6:58 pm | Permalink

        I was talking about the stupid language of Trump’s Mexican Wall.

        I don’t have anything personally against Trump. But i do in his public role as the President of the USA, making America and Republicanism look dumb.

        • Brit
          Posted January 31, 2018 at 5:22 am | Permalink

          He does not have stupid language about the Mexican Wall nor has he had any. He is merely carrying out the plan first authorised by Mr Bill Clinton ..a name you may recognise who spoke about building a wall, at length, several times, check the internet and hear Mr Clinton in person persuading Congress…and for the same reasons!!!!
          Ask yourself why you do not know about this

          • Ed Mahony
            Posted January 31, 2018 at 12:41 pm | Permalink

            Again, i said about the ‘language’ (/ the approach) he used, not the wall itself or whatever technical device they use at the border.

          • rose
            Posted February 1, 2018 at 11:30 am | Permalink

            Ed, if only we policed criminals and terrorists as effectively as we police our language.

  26. Kenneth
    Posted January 30, 2018 at 9:57 am | Permalink

    I don’t know that much about Mr Trump but I feel the hatred coming out of every BBC report about him so he can’t be all that bad

  27. Paul
    Posted January 30, 2018 at 10:21 am | Permalink

    Sadiq Khan and Chuka Umunna don’t like him so he must be doing something right.

    • Prigger
      Posted January 30, 2018 at 1:50 pm | Permalink

      They were in fact, if you carefully examine their utterances, with dates, over time criticising Trump before he could have said or done anything they would disagree with politically. They should be brought before a Parliamentary Committee to ask the origin and factual basis of their utterances and thoughts. Documentary and video evidence provided, perhaps to assist their recollections. They are Psychics! Could be!!

  28. Bob Dixon
    Posted January 30, 2018 at 10:21 am | Permalink

    I made winning bets on the referendum and Donald Trump.

    Any suggestions for the next six months?

    • bigneil
      Posted January 30, 2018 at 11:56 am | Permalink

      How about
      TM is going to give yet more money and control to the EU.
      More migrant criminals will be jailed after living here for free on our taxes.
      TM will give yet more money and control to the EU.
      Council tax will go up yet we will get less services.
      TM will give yet more money and control to the EU.
      Police will prevent more terror attacks by a certain group that we can’t mention.
      TM will give yet more money and control to the EU.

      • NickC
        Posted January 30, 2018 at 7:27 pm | Permalink

        Bigneil, I think you forgot to mention that TM is going to give yet more money and control to the EU.

    • Dennis Zoff
      Posted January 30, 2018 at 2:20 pm | Permalink

      …..quickly, make a bet on a successful Brexit outcome!

  29. Epikouros
    Posted January 30, 2018 at 10:38 am | Permalink

    What Trump has achieved in his first year in office very surprisingly is if you are a classical liberal quite impressive including rolling back on a lot of the damage that Obama managed to achieve whilst he was in office. Although he still has a long way to go on both. What is not so impressive is his war and trade rhetoric and actions or not his not tackling of the American multi trillion debt problem. The good he has done has been despite everything the left have done to undermine him. It appears to have only served to undermine themselves and exposed themselves to being more guilty of criminality than what they are accusing him of.

  30. iain
    Posted January 30, 2018 at 11:11 am | Permalink

    If only we had someone with Trump’s business experience and negotiating skills in place of David Davis. Alas we appear to be following rather than leading the EU out talks.

  31. LukeM
    Posted January 30, 2018 at 12:09 pm | Permalink

    Trump is a buffoon..even the American electorate who supported him are starting to sit up..he won’t be there after another couple of years…we’d be wise not to hitch our wagons

    • Yawning Height
      Posted January 31, 2018 at 5:11 am | Permalink

      “and we will find out just how terrible Brexit is when our economy falls to pieces on 24th June 2016 if we vote Leave..the worst unemployment since the 1930s…people will actually starve to death!!!”

  32. fedupsoutherner
    Posted January 30, 2018 at 1:07 pm | Permalink

    Three cheers for Trump. A man that does what he says after he is elected. Unlike our lot who do exactly the opposite! I am sick to death of people protesting and running him down. I notice all these women who are so upset by Trump didn’t protest when the Saudi leader came over here. What rights do women have in Saudi? Leave Trump alone to do his job. I hope he is so successful he gets voted in again. That would set the cat amongst the pigeons. Our politicians and media are disrespectful and rude. I’ve never known anything like it and it is childish.

    • Mark B
      Posted January 30, 2018 at 7:57 pm | Permalink

      Here, here 👍

  33. Sunny
    Posted January 30, 2018 at 4:40 pm | Permalink

    CNBC have just reported 29th january 2018

    JinkoSolar Signs 1.75 GW Solar Module Supply Agreement in the U.S. and Advances Plans for Construction of Manufacturing Facility in the U.S.

    Well I never! Who would have thought that? $430 million investment

  34. Iain Gill
    Posted January 30, 2018 at 10:06 pm | Permalink

    You can bet your bottom Dollar that Trump would not be taking immigrants from Calais into the USA. He would quite properly tell anyone asking for this, in the way of a liberal lefty virtue signaler, no no no. Again something that our own government should be learning from Trump.

  35. Chris
    Posted January 30, 2018 at 10:24 pm | Permalink

    Trump understands the need for low taxes and reducing the regulatory burden. Theresa May and her Chancellor do not. I am not at all surprised by this article by Philip Johnston in the D Telegraph:
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/01/30/point-tories-refuse-stand-low-taxes-small-government/
    What is the point of the Tories if they refuse to stand up for low taxes and small government?

    One commenter went on to add a very long list of other things that the so called Tory refuses to do.

  • About John Redwood


    John Redwood won a free place at Kent College, Canterbury, He graduated from Magdalen College Oxford, has a DPhil and is a fellow of All Souls College. A businessman by background, he has been a director of NM Rothschild merchant bank and chairman of a quoted industrial PLC.

  • John’s Books

  • Email Alerts

    You can sign up to receive John's blog posts by e-mail by entering your e-mail address in the box below.

    Enter your email address:

    Delivered by FeedBurner

    The e-mail service is powered by Google's FeedBurner service. Your information is not shared.

  • Map of Visitors

    Locations of visitors to this page