More good news on jobs, whilst sterling rises

The pound drew level with the rate it reached prior to the referendum, hitting $1.43 again. The only negative forecast of the Remain campaign that they kept repeating after the event because they thought it had more chance of success  has now joined the others as wrong.

During the Referendum campaign I was frequently asked by interviewers to defend why I thought jobs would go up, housing would be unaffected and the economy would continue to grow, as the Remain camp with all the official forecasters behind them said the opposite. They told us with all the authority of establishment error and malfunctioning models  that in the first year or so after the vote we would have a recession, jobs would fall, unemployment would rise, the pound would fall and house prices would fall. I said the opposite of all of those save for the pound. There I said after we vote to leave the pound will go up and down depending on our policies compared to other countries policies, as it has done for many years all the time we have been in the EU.  The Bank decided on loose money in 2016 so the pound fell, and has decided to tighten money this year so it is rising.

Yesterday we learned that another 55,000 jobs were added to the total in the three months to February. Employment is up by 427,000 compared to a year ago, with most of the new jobs being full time. This takes unemployment down again to 4.2%, way below the average  levels in the Eurozone.  Pay went up by 2.8%, so we are back with real increases in pay now inflation is subsiding.  There has been no fall in real incomes since the vote. Unemployment is well below the levels prior to  the vote and pay in money terms is rising faster now than in 2016.

The UK economy is good at generating extra jobs. Now we need to encourage businesses to put more capital into boosting productivity, so we need fewer new people to come in to the UK to  take low paid jobs, and so we can boost pay more for people already working and living here.

This entry was posted in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink. Both comments and trackbacks are currently closed.


  1. Lifelogic
    Posted April 18, 2018 at 5:23 am | Permalink

    This despite the highest and most complex taxation levels for 40 years, a daft socialist, interventionist (and breathtakingly incompetent) government. Imagine what the private sector could do if the government just got out of the way, slimmed down and become remotely competent.

    It will of course all go into a rapid reverse should Corbyn and Mc Donnall look like ever getting in. Something that May & Hammond seem determined to bring about with their foolish war mongering, their tax & regulate everything to death and their hugely misguided agenda in general.

    Oh for some real Conservative leadership and vision.

    • Screwdriver
      Posted April 18, 2018 at 7:32 am | Permalink

      Corbyn stands every chance of getting in. Who would have said that or even thought that a couple of years ago? On the plus side, Mrs May will go. and will only reappear periodically along with Major, Brown, Blair and some celebrity cheerleading for a war or some other anti-democratic procedure.

    • Hope
      Posted April 18, 2018 at 8:32 am | Permalink

      All this despite Govt not because of it. The same for the BoE and Treasury. All now discredited and need to be overhauled in as a consequence. What would be the position if the country’s believed the Govt which has led to its current disastrous capitulation strategy to leave the EU, we should have had a recession, lost 500,000 jobs, pound sunk, business run off abroad, city finance district deserted, oh and Cameron’s world war three!

      Hammond has done his best to create a negative environment with doom mongering fake reports from the Treasury, May took no action, car production down because of Hammond and Gove, May took no action, Rudd has so many failures overnthe last year it is not possible to list them, she has a habit of blaming others instead of accepting responsibility, three terrorist atrocities, serious crime through the roof, Windrush scandal known to Rudd months ago, she blames May and civil servants, May took no action, under May as HS she destroyed the records that would prove who is entitled to be here! DPA is no excuse. Russian intelligence defector on TV claiming Syria was used to store/make chemicals for Russia. Was this the real reason for bombing?

      JR, when do you oust May, Hammond and Rudd. On any level their performance is truly awful.

  2. Fedupsoutherner
    Posted April 18, 2018 at 5:26 am | Permalink

    Strange how the cost of fuel doesn’t seem to have gone down to previous levels. The employment numbers are good despite the government’s efforts to ruin the car industry. Imagine the figures with a government on our side!

    • eeyore
      Posted April 18, 2018 at 6:34 am | Permalink

      The magic formula for prosperity has been known to all since Adam Smith: small government, low taxes, light regulation, free markets, rule of law. That democratic governments find it so hard to apply must say something profound about democracy itself.

      Nonetheless, even the worst efforts of government cannot keep an enterprising people down. And all Despite Brexit!

      More seriously, as the great supertanker of state settles into its new course over the next five or ten years there will inevitably be some uncomfortable moments. Brexiter complacency now will not encourage understanding and patience from Remainers.

    • Roy Grainger
      Posted April 18, 2018 at 6:36 am | Permalink

      In a recent announcement about job losses in diesel car production plants the company blamed Government policy on diesel cars “and uncertainty over Brexit”. They just can’t help themselves.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted April 18, 2018 at 7:00 am | Permalink

      Exactly. We should go for cheap, reliable and on demand energy. The absurdity of the tax payer subsidised renewable agenda and the importation of wood pellets to burn is an outrage. This while many people cannot even afford to keep warm some dying as a direct result.

      There is nothing green about this agenda at all, it is an evil religion and hugely damaging to the environment as well. Get some decent, honest and sensible engineers in charge rather than “green” loons and priests. Bring back someone sensible and scientifically literate a Peter Lilley type please.

      • Fedupsoutherner
        Posted April 18, 2018 at 11:24 am | Permalink

        LL. I couldn’t agree more with you over this. The government’s policy on green energy looks like it was put together in a primary school. Its so damaging in more ways than one that it is totally absurd.

    • Prigger
      Posted April 18, 2018 at 7:25 am | Permalink

      I agree with you that the government has been instrumental in destroying the only wealth of many people, their car.The answer to pollution in London is for government to take measures for depopulation not by in effect reducing the size of toilet bowls for every household.

    • Ian wragg
      Posted April 18, 2018 at 8:05 am | Permalink

      What about the latest betrayal sticking to the CFP. 50% of our fish being handed over to a single Dutch company.
      This government is seriously deluded if they think that they can continue this charade.

  3. duncan
    Posted April 18, 2018 at 5:45 am | Permalink

    Two points to note:

    Firstly, I believe what we are seeing is an economy that ‘believes’ itself to be aligned to the interests of the EU. Call it a relief rally if you will. It is the realisation that the UK will leave the EU in name only which may explain recent investment decisions by major corporations operating in the UK.

    Secondly, being a member of the EU is not a panacea for a country’s economic ills. A nation’s economic strength is derived from the entrepreneurial drive, energy and ambiton of its people (including its politicians who sometimes become a barrier to a nation’s growth) rather than from being part of a political construct

    With the correct tax and liberalisation policies (and that means reform of the unproductive, non-self financing public sector) the UK could be the powerhouse of the western world. Unfortunately we have a government who appears determined to align its tax and spend policies to that of the EU. Therefore, the UK will not become a low tax, investment haven for major corporations.

    It’s important that people understand what is happening. Yes, the currency market is pricing-in a UK-EU deal but that deal will be the maintenance of the status quo which is why sterling is being bid up against the $ and the Euro.

    I am convinced the UK will not leave the EU in the way Leave voters expect. Look for the clues to confirm this suspicion. Will the Chancellor slash corporation tax? I bet he doesn’t. Why? Because that would not align with EU policy and would represent a tax competitive threat to the Eurozone.

    What we have in government is a party that has embraced the status quo rather than challenge it.

  4. formula57
    Posted April 18, 2018 at 5:46 am | Permalink

    Remoaners will be in tears over this.

    • Hammer
      Posted April 18, 2018 at 8:40 am | Permalink

      Normal people who voted Remain won’t be in tears. They will be happy things are turning out well and some will deny they ever voted for Remain. ” I know I said I was going to vote Remain, but something just told me not to at the last minute ” Something professional Remoaners will cry about…for ever it seems

  5. Mick
    Posted April 18, 2018 at 5:49 am | Permalink

    Off topic
    Do these people want to start a civil war, because believe me that’s what will happen if the will of the people isn’t carried out of what we voted for, or am I just getting it wrong that the only outcome of what the hol and all the remoaners will succeed in doing is for us to leave next March 2019 but without European law being transferred into British law

    • GY
      Posted April 18, 2018 at 5:35 pm | Permalink

      It’s all hot air, they can’t obstruct the Government on this otherwise the Lords are in for a serious reality check from the public that pays their over-inflated salaries and expenses. We can do without them.

  6. Denis Cooper
    Posted April 18, 2018 at 5:59 am | Permalink

    Unfortunately while the doomladen forecasts pushed by the Treasury before the referendum have proved wrong some of its staff have now taken it upon themselves to produce and leak new editions of the same kind of doomladen forecasts, and they are being treated as proven facts rather than as just another set of unreliable heavily biased speculative forecasts.

    For example:

    “The cold reality is that Brexit is hurting our economy, our public services and the life chances of future generations. And the government has already admitted that in all of the possible outcomes of the current negotiations, the country will be worse off.”

    I am still waiting to hear that the minister in charge of the civil service (Theresa May) has hunted down those responsible and they have been severely disciplined.

    • Rien Huizer
      Posted April 18, 2018 at 11:15 am | Permalink

      As you may be well aware, expectations about the type of brexit vary constantly. The current fashion is that the UK’s trading environment will not change a great deal and that drives optimism, drives business conditions of the type that the BoE needs to manage by moving closer to normal interest rates (imo normal would be around 3% for the policy rate) and the expectation of both no meaningful change plus interest rate increases results in GBP buoyancy. So far we are not really outside the BoE’s target zone for EUR/GBP (between 70 and 90) so there is plenty of policy space. Imo the current expectations include: no significantly lower access to imported labour, frictionless trade in goods (alternative being red tape and an Irish problem). No problems for air and nuclear and maybe a simplified procedure for financial services (by basing EU regulatory “branches” in London, an old idea but quite feasible). In essence, something similar to Norway but probably with some level of consultation re new rules. The coastal states will like this and maybe onlyn Poland will be unhappy. Gibraltar may be a problem.

      • Denis Cooper
        Posted April 20, 2018 at 9:55 am | Permalink

        None of which is really relevant to the inherent unreliability of the Treasury economic predictions, whether the first editions or the second, and the question of why the Prime Minister is prepared to tolerate civil servants constantly working, leaking and briefing against her official policy.

        • Rien Huizer
          Posted April 20, 2018 at 5:35 pm | Permalink

          Maybe her policy is not what you think it is and are these civil servants doing their job. That may well be the market vision which drives investor sentiment and buoys both GBP (via the BoE interest rate policy mechanism) and business investment. Highly relevant to the interpretation of data mr Redwood cites here. In my opinion of course, because nobody knows, yet. But I do not believe that these figures indicate market enthusiasm about a hard brexit, on the contrary.

    • getahead
      Posted April 18, 2018 at 3:43 pm | Permalink

      This is a Catch-22 situation, Dennis. We have Remainers negotiating an awful Leave deal resulting in Remainers being able to claim that the government (also Remainer) thinks we will be worse off after Brexit.
      What we need is a clean break from the EU with any negotiations taking place after we have completely left.
      What we also need is a UKIP government.

      • Fedupsoutherner
        Posted April 18, 2018 at 8:34 pm | Permalink

        Ukip is more Conservative than the Conservatives are!

    • Stred
      Posted April 19, 2018 at 5:58 am | Permalink

      Why we are supposed to be impressed by the opinions of people who’s job it is to pretend to be someone else, while being rather weird between jobs, is a mystery. There must be a branch of the actors union in the honours doling department.

  7. henryS
    Posted April 18, 2018 at 6:10 am | Permalink

    Things could be even better if we could only get to grips with the EU over our future relationship with them, for a start businesses would be better able to plan and also people could put career plans in place for their futures, especially young people who intend to move job or buy/sell homes- because just for a lot of young people everything seems to be on hold

    There’s no point in me saying anything else about the EU, everybody knows it’s there and can’t be ignored- removing some of our red lines might be a start.

  8. hans chr iversen
    Posted April 18, 2018 at 6:14 am | Permalink

    The idea that EU migrants, who have now fallen by 50% in growth should be the cause of lower salary increases for the lower paid jobs, just does not stack up.

    Salary increases across Europe over teh past 5 years ahve been very low or ahve not increased at all till recently, so more a more migration in the past to the UK should have had an impact on salary increases at the lower end, has just no been proven.

    Salaries will really only increase with higher productivity as John also points out

    • David L
      Posted April 18, 2018 at 9:35 am | Permalink

      References to increases in pay should have the word “boardroom” placed before it as it’s that aspect that has influenced the average figure we are provided with.

    • ian wragg
      Posted April 18, 2018 at 10:23 am | Permalink

      Another stupid comment from Brussels. When you have a flood of migrants as we have here in the East Midlands willing to work zero hours contracts for the minimum wage then of course wages are depressed.
      My builder tells me he earned £100 per day 10 years ago and despite a supposed shortage of builders today you are lucky to be offered £80. he has pulled out of the mass market and concentrates on extensions etc.

      • hans chr iversen
        Posted April 18, 2018 at 7:16 pm | Permalink


        You are so full of compliments I am overwhelmed

      • libertarian
        Posted April 19, 2018 at 4:17 pm | Permalink

        Actually Ian , Hans is correct

        Here are some facts

        Only 2.8% of the workforce are on zero hour contracts ( on various rates of pay)

        33% of people on ZHC are students

        61% of ZHC workers self report as part time

        97% of workers are NOT on ZHC

        There are currently 810,000 unfilled jobs in the UK

        Worker demand outstrips supply

        The reason wages are only rising slowly is because the COST of employment has risen dramatically with increases in taxes and the introduction of work place pensions etc

        Tradesman day rates 2017/2018

        The UK average daily rates for the some of the more popular trades include:

        Carpenters: £120 – £150
        Bricklayer: £155
        Labourer: £100 – £160
        Electricians: £150 – £200
        Plumbers: £150 – £200
        Builders: £120 – £200

    • Edward2
      Posted April 18, 2018 at 1:09 pm | Permalink

      Are you really trying to argue that the biggest increase in population in the history of the UK since 2000 has had no causal effect on wage growth in that time?
      Supply and demand.

  9. Adam
    Posted April 18, 2018 at 6:15 am | Permalink

    Zealous doom mongers who favoured Remain with spurious logic shall remain tainted with worthlessness.

    The UK is returning to high quality as an independent nation, with sterling citizens, free from EU tampering. Conservatives are steering steadily & better than many presently realise.

    • Kenneth
      Posted April 18, 2018 at 9:02 am | Permalink

      The doom-mongers will not be tainted for long.

      The BBC will continue to invite them on to the radio and tv to sell their books and give them the credibility they do not deserve.

      As usual they will virtually ignore the Redwoods and Hannans etc

  10. Denis Cooper
    Posted April 18, 2018 at 6:18 am | Permalink

    Off-topic, today:

    “Ireland and Germany: Gaining friends and influence”

    “Time has come to lift relationship to the next level”

    “The document takes stock of where we are with Europe’s biggest player, marks where we should want to be, and plots a course between the two points. In an auspicious sign, Germany’s foreign minister Heiko Maas was on hand to help launch the review, flying first to Dublin and then on to London. Berlin views Ireland as a reliable EU ally. Irish Brexit concerns are German concerns, Berlin officials insist, and both countries are keen to hold the post-Brexit EU27 together.”

    • Rob Drummond
      Posted April 18, 2018 at 11:22 am | Permalink

      There is no chance AT ALL that the economies of The EU will be sacrificed for the tiny tax-fiddling economy that is Ireland (Net of all the ”global/legalised money laundering that goes on) its about £200bn a year.)

      Germany France and Italy are 10 times that each and more.

      Ireland: here is the thing – ”The EU speak with forked tongue” – it simply aint going to happen

      • Blake
        Posted April 18, 2018 at 6:03 pm | Permalink

        Rob Druhappens …i think we won’t have very long to wait to see how this is going to play make a big mistake if you think everything is going to be decided by monetary considerations only. Apart from the Irish Border there is the other situation about the movement of peoples..something that Vethofstadt is very concerned with..and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if it was the EU side that walked away? either way little old Ireland holds a lot of strong cards at the moment..little Ireland has a lot of friends in europoldmuch more than we’ll see what happens

    • Blake
      Posted April 18, 2018 at 1:52 pm | Permalink

      Correct Denis..they are both committed EU countries determined to hold the line on brexit in the interest of the EU 27 as they see it..I am not a bit surprised..Germany knows only too well what it’s like to have a border drawn through its country and so for this reason UK is going to have to come to terms with the Irish border question..otherwise there will be no movement on anything repeated again today by President the end we will probably need a Customs Union agreement with them to get around this?

    • GY
      Posted April 18, 2018 at 5:37 pm | Permalink

      Just re-inforcing an alliance dating from the Second World War.

  11. Andy
    Posted April 18, 2018 at 6:29 am | Permalink

    How are those Jaguar workers getting along? The Brexit ship is clearly sinking and the cheerleaders are still on deck cheering it along.

    Meanwhile the Windrush scandal has demonstrated the truly unpleasant nature of the current Tory government.

    It is a shameful time to be British.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted April 18, 2018 at 8:51 am | Permalink

      Indeed the remainiacs are still going strong on their sinking ship. Now even trying to blame the Windrush outrage on Brexiteers.

      Can I remind them that most civil servants were/are remainers and that the incompetent Home Office was led by remainer May for many years and then remainer Rudd.

      No Brexiteers that I know want to treat the Windrush Generation in this appalling way.

      • Andy
        Posted April 18, 2018 at 5:28 pm | Permalink

        On the contrary – the Windrush scandal is inexorably linked with Brexit. Both are a symptom of the raging cancer of xenophobia which has terminally infected the Conservative party and large parts of English society.

        Windrush would not even have been an issue if the hard-right had not become over-obsessed with immigration over the past decade, to the point that they are deliberately and knowingly prepared to cause long term and permanent damage to the economy to try to look tough.

        Well they don’t look tough. They just look pathetic, old fashioned and more than a bit bigoted. This could – and should – bring down the government.

        • Richard1
          Posted April 19, 2018 at 6:57 am | Permalink

          This is an absurd and distorted view. It is clear there is widespread concern in the country over uncontrolled immigration. The Labour Party sought for years to tar anyone who even raised a debate on immigration as a racist. Labour now agree there should be a new immigration policy. Brexit was the result of the argument prevailing that you don’t need to be in a political union with a group of other countries in order to have friendly relations and free trade.

        • a-tracy
          Posted April 19, 2018 at 8:37 am | Permalink

          Now you are going too far in my opinion Andy.

          The fact that our civil service, employed to represent taxpayers in this Country in a fair and just manner haven’t been able to check governments own records to substantiate someone’s residency and expect people to provide evidence going back 40 to 50 years is just bizarre, when was this written instruction given and who by?

          I read it wasn’t the hard right that introduced the British Nationality Act of 1981, it is not a party issue it has been going on since 1986 when the transition ended. The requirement for naturalisation has existed throughout Labour, Tory/Lib Dem and Tory years.

          Andy why aren’t there NI records there? Or benefit claims if they haven’t been earning sufficient for NI contributions. Mine records are I checked online yesterday, why haven’t the Councils they have lived in got their records from the Council tax register, why don’t the NHS have their records and treatments for the past 50 years they must have been registered with GPs, even if their surgeries have closed down the Health Service will have records of which GPs they paid each year for their health cover?

          This is nothing to do with Bigotry, it seems to me it is to do with pensions and benefits and entitlements to both and NHS treatment. Most people are amazed that our ever intrusive government don’t have records on up to 50,000 people that have lived here for 40 years and more, it’s just disgusting.

          This isn’t about the people on the outside, the voters, who have been paying their tax and national insurance each year, paying civil servants to do their jobs and ensure people are entitled and not taking up services and benefits they’re not entitled to in the UK, stop using your wide brush to tar us all bigots, many of us are disgusted that people living in the UK for decades have been treated with so little help and don’t seem to have any records in a system we are all bought up to trust.

        • Edward2
          Posted April 19, 2018 at 12:26 pm | Permalink

          Do you have any evidence for your wild assertions Andy?

          It seems to me that amongst my large social circle (ie us oldies) 100% of us are outraged by the way these people have been unfairly treated by the home office bureaucrats.
          The reaction in Parliament and in the media also tells me you are, as usual, completely wrong.

    • graham1946
      Posted April 18, 2018 at 10:07 am | Permalink

      How are those Jaguar workers getting along?

      Probably rather better than the unemployed of Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy et al in your beloved EU.

      Sinking ship? Have we two Andy’s on this site? One sometimes makes some sense, the other invariably talks BS.

      They probably also have better prospects of getting a new job in the UK than those mentioned.

      • Andy
        Posted April 18, 2018 at 5:45 pm | Permalink

        Yes – unemployment is way too high in Greece and Spain. Though in Portugal things are getting better fast and unemployment is at a 13 year low.

        But tell me about the Czech Republic, Malta, Hungary and the Netherlands. They are all in the EU – and all have a lower unemployment rate than the UK.

        If your theory holds how can this be? Or, here’s a thought, unemployment is not much to do with the EU at all. Instead it is a NATIONAL issue.

        This explains why some EU countries have a high unemployment rate, and some do not. Some Eurozone countries have a high unemployment rate, others do not.

        Who’d have thought? (Except everyone who understands these things).

        Reply So why then did Remain tell us leaving the EU would destroy jobs? Sounds as if you think they spreading lies.

        • henryS
          Posted April 19, 2018 at 9:14 am | Permalink

          reply to reply..we havn’t left just yet?.. lets see how things will be in one or two years time if we crash out without a deal? who are we going to be trading with then to keep the employment levels up?

          • Edward2
            Posted April 20, 2018 at 4:22 pm | Permalink

            We will trade with all we trade with now henryS
            I don’t think the EU will try to stop European nations from carrying on trading with the UK, do you?
            Many non European nations trade with Europe quite happily and have done for decades.

        • graham1946
          Posted April 19, 2018 at 9:55 am | Permalink


          Have any of those you mention taken in 3 million people from the EU? We have absorbed them and still make progress. Why do they come if we are such a failure?

      • Fedupsoutherner
        Posted April 18, 2018 at 8:42 pm | Permalink

        Yes, I wondered if there were two Andy’s on this site. One seems to praise Brexit while the other can’t find anything positive to say about it. Confusing.

    • ian wragg
      Posted April 18, 2018 at 10:26 am | Permalink

      Then clear off abroad and stop bleating.

    • Rob Drummond
      Posted April 18, 2018 at 11:03 am | Permalink

      What a pile of rubbish – what has the Disgraceful WINDRUSH got to do with BREXIT (apart form contorted comparisons) and the UK economy with its massive Job Creation skills?

      You REMOANERS are down to complaining about 1,000 job losses and ignoring the 427,000 more people in work than 12 months ago?

      We are making PROGRESS – Remonaners have run out of debating points, so they bring in other points and dress them up accordingly.

      • henryS
        Posted April 19, 2018 at 9:20 am | Permalink

        Windrush has everything to do with Brexit because it is an indicator as to how politicians and officialdom in the future are likely to treat EU least that is the way a lot of people see it including EU comes right back to the heart of the sickness that has gripped large swathes of British society since the 1950’s and probably earlier- Xenophobia? NO Blacks NO dogs, No Irish

        • Edward2
          Posted April 20, 2018 at 4:26 pm | Permalink

          Firstly henryS that slogan has been proved to be a made up myth.
          Secondly the UK is without doubt the world’s most tolerant and welcoming and diverse nation on Earth.
          Look at the reaction to this Windrush saga
          Everyone wants fair treatment for all caught up in this bureaucratic nightmare.

    • Richard1
      Posted April 18, 2018 at 11:40 am | Permalink

      Don’t these economic data show clearly that, contrary to the predictions of Project Fear, the Brexit ship is not sinking? Or have you any actual arguments?

    • Edward2
      Posted April 18, 2018 at 1:17 pm | Permalink

      1000 temporary contract workers laid off compared to overall UK growth figures for employment.

      The UK is the most diverse and welcoming place on the planet with hundreds of thousands of new arrivals desperate to come here every year.
      Windrush is a failure of bureaucracy nothing more.

      Recently you complained about others “clutching at straws”….

      • Denis Cooper
        Posted April 18, 2018 at 4:53 pm | Permalink

        Total workforce about 40,000 …

      • Stred
        Posted April 19, 2018 at 6:08 am | Permalink

        The anti diesel agenda seems to be all over the EU and has affected big diesel manufacturers most. JLR are right in the firing line to placate ignorant green policy. Nothing to do with Brexit.

    • libertarian
      Posted April 18, 2018 at 3:02 pm | Permalink


      Oh dear, do you never check anything ?

      Jaguar say the loss of jobs is and I quote ” due to the slump in sales of diesel cars”

      Oh I wonder what caused that then?

      The Windrush scandal ( which I agree is outrageous) actually began in 2009 with the destruction of all the landing card data… Oh there was a Labour government in 2009 Oh

      Its a shameful time to be Andy

    • Fedupsoutherner
      Posted April 18, 2018 at 8:39 pm | Permalink

      Andy the windrush scandal was brought about by a Labour government. The unfortunate situation at the brilliant company Jaguar had nothing to do with Brexit but more to do with EU/government school boy policies over green issues. Grow up.

  12. Mark B
    Posted April 18, 2018 at 6:35 am | Permalink

    Good morning.

    Using economics to advance a political narrative is always fraught with danger. Things are never that simple. Governments always tend to over play their hand but it can only affect the economy in small and relatively short term ways. Over the long cycle, way beyond the election cycle, the economy will more affected by wars, cuts to essencial materials and markets and so on. The Banking Crash, the ERM and other natural disasters like Fukushima have more affect.

    The Remain camp still go on about what was said on the side of a bus. Pathetic ! It is time for them to defend all the things they have said that have not come true.

  13. Epikouros
    Posted April 18, 2018 at 6:43 am | Permalink

    You mention establishment error which just a cursory look at the past and current actions of government confirms that is an all t0o frequent occurrence. In fact it is all too evident that government misdiagnoses problems then applies ill conceived solutions to them that cause more problems to be misdiagnosed and badly managed. If it was not so tragic we could laugh at it as being a another play written on the theme of a comedy of errors.

    The new strength of the pound although in many ways good for the country it is worrying as the weak pound gave a fillip to our economy and helped our exports and manufacturing base. It is hoped that it will not now have the opposite effect. Low unemployment and rising wages are of course to be applauded. However only if those who are able to work but are not in work is a reasonable number. I have a suspicion that it is not as our education and welfare systems are swelling that number and so overall the picture is not so rosy. Hopefully productivity is rising with wages if it is not then wages rising is not as happy event as it would appear.

  14. alan jutson
    Posted April 18, 2018 at 6:53 am | Permalink

    Certainly good news for the moment, given that our Government is still failing the population on so many counts.
    The Windrush fiasco just the latest to show yet another Government Department is unfit for purpose, along with its appeals procedure, which ignores another Government Department which has kept records of tax deductions for decades.
    I guess yet more tax payers compensation will be paid out to the sufferers of such injustice, but again I guess no one will be sacked, as the original errors go back many decades.

    • Peter
      Posted April 18, 2018 at 2:03 pm | Permalink

      Conspiracy theorists are now claiming it is a Leaver plot to get rid of (Rudd ed) (according to Guido)!

      It seems to me that Leaver politicians have been unnecessarily protective of both her and Mrs. May.

  15. Richard1
    Posted April 18, 2018 at 6:59 am | Permalink

    Sir John Gieve the former civil servant and deputy governor of the BoE got a light ride on the Today Programme on this, broadly saying U.K. growth is lower than the rest of the world and long term growth will be lower (ie Project Fear is still right). He wasn’t really challenged on this unfortunately.

    • Richard1
      Posted April 18, 2018 at 7:21 am | Permalink

      Sir Johns argument was the U.K. is putting up constraints to trade with its major trading partner, the EU, and this is why growth will be lower. It’s an extraordinary argument to hear made given all that’s said by the Govt and Brexit leaders – the U.K. has no wish at all to put up constraints to trade, but it wants free trade without political union, a point unfortunately not made by John Humphrys.

      Checking out Sir John I see he was deputy governor of the BoE, on the MPC and responsible specifically for financial stability from 2006 – ie during the time when the explosion of bank leverage was ignored and monetary policy was first far too loose then suddenly in a panic too tight. I do wonder why such people still have a platform to lecture us de haut en bas, having been so wrong in the past. It would be more interesting if they had to debate with eg JR or Patrick Minford.

      • Andy
        Posted April 18, 2018 at 8:11 am | Permalink

        It is not an extraordinary argument at all – it is a statement of fact. Brexiteers voted for trade barriers where currently there are none. Leaving both the customs union and single market – neither a requirement of a sensible Brexit as we know countries can be in them without being in the EU – makes it worse.

        Research today shows us – again – that we are worse off under every Brexit scenario. A Conservative government deliberately – and knowingly – making the country poorer to appease a few dozen hardliners. This will not end well for anyone. Not the EU, not the UK sand definitely not for the Tories.

        • Edward2
          Posted April 18, 2018 at 5:04 pm | Permalink

          “Brexiteers voted for trade barriers” is a new level of nonsense from you Andy.
          All through the referendum campaign the argument was for free trade no tariffs and trade with all the rest of the world.
          It is the EU constructing a protective trading bloc wanting barriers and tariffs.

          Research shows… mean speculative pro remain project fear predictions.
          Like previous doomladen predictions that can be seen not to have come true.

        • libertarian
          Posted April 18, 2018 at 6:07 pm | Permalink


          “Research today shows us – again – that we are worse off under every Brexit scenario”

          Er you HAVEN’T shown us this research. Stop making things up

        • getahead
          Posted April 18, 2018 at 6:46 pm | Permalink

          Andy, there may not be tariffs on goods coming and going, but EU membership in itself is a huge tariff paid by the British taxpayer.
          Paying WTO tariffs will be much cheaper than paying for the EU.

        • anon
          Posted April 18, 2018 at 7:14 pm | Permalink

          The country voted to leave the EU.

          Any change in trade barriers may be a consequence of that.

          The UK will be able to expand trade and reduce friction with non eu trading partners. A major plus. Just consider India, US China,Russia Canada,Aus,NZ,Africa all not in the EU.

          A few ships can be chartered and bobs your uncle our defict is supplied by the non EU others.

          The EU will instruct in the EU what to do, as they currently do to us.

          Unfortunately. Our current negotiators are intent on making a “no deal” look like the best thing since sliced bread.

          The no deal or WTO option is a country mile ahead.

          Please take advantage of the EU freedoms and move.

      • Rien Huizer
        Posted April 18, 2018 at 11:20 am | Permalink

        Interesting indeed. Assuming the subject woul;d be economics, not politics.

    • Leslie Singleton
      Posted April 18, 2018 at 9:47 am | Permalink

      Dear Richard–Rather obvious surely that given that huge swathes of the rest of the world are playing catch up, their growth is going to be higher than ours. Routine to hear that China’s growth is up around 6% – very understandably and a biggish country so I am led to believe. Is that supposed to be due to Brexit? And this chap was or is supposed to be (knowledgeable? ed)

  16. Old Albion
    Posted April 18, 2018 at 7:05 am | Permalink

    Despite all of this good news proving the ‘remainiacs’ wrong on every level. Still they whinge on and on about staying in their beloved EU. Their siren voices should be drowned out, by facts.

  17. Prigger
    Posted April 18, 2018 at 7:12 am | Permalink

    I wonder if Mr Speaker has now changed his mind and now thinks that Trump “has earned the right” to visit the British Parliament? After all Trump has just met the essential criteria for such by bombing a foreign country at the other side of the globe which has never attacked ourselves or the allies. True no-one was murdered. They got lucky and there’ll always be a next time.

    • David L
      Posted April 18, 2018 at 9:38 am | Permalink

      If Mr Trump negotiates a peaceful accord with North Korea most of his indiscretions and rantings may get forgotten.

  18. Peter
    Posted April 18, 2018 at 7:26 am | Permalink

    All very well but we move slowly towards Brexit in Name Only.

    • Iago
      Posted April 18, 2018 at 8:49 am | Permalink

      Yes, exactly. We will scarcely be in any way an independent nation; almost every thing which makes us a country is being surrendered by this no borders, no nation government.

      • GY
        Posted April 18, 2018 at 5:50 pm | Permalink

        BRINO would be the start of the establishment’s problems. They don’t realise it yet.

  19. agricola
    Posted April 18, 2018 at 7:33 am | Permalink

    I am very pleased that employment continues to progress. We now need fiscal steps that encourage investment in productivity.

    I do not have much faith in the wisdom of politicians to guide the process. Witness the diesel engine fiasco that has heavily damaged production and subsequent employment, all firmly at the foot of politicians, no doubt lawyers , social scientists, and history graduates. Then there is the utter idiocy at the Home Office for which many not only need reassurance, but in some cases, where unemployment was a result and worse, heavy compensation is due. Just for clinchers we have a segment of the Labour party that is virulently anti Semitic and their front bench who appear to act as devils advocate for Putin, Assad, and any of the terrorist organisations throughout the Middle East. Are most of the competent people outside leading more fruitful lives and disdaining politics or is it a trawler net for life’s never quite made it.

  20. BOF
    Posted April 18, 2018 at 8:55 am | Permalink

    Employment is up but when the officia net migration figure is taken into account, that is not that many more jobs for UK citizens already living here.

    OT. The news this morning is that De La Rue will not be contesting the decision on Passports which is probably very sensible as it will simply tie them up in a legal wrangle which would sap resources and money.

    This should not absolve the Home Office, headed by the lacking in competence, Ms Rudd, from re allocating this contract to De La Rue on the grounds of security ( with the added advantage of keeping jobs and tax within the UK). etc ed

  21. English Pensioner
    Posted April 18, 2018 at 9:43 am | Permalink

    Cheap labour has always tended to discourage innovation and in the long run is bad for the country and holds down wages generally.
    Historically, the tractor was invented due to a shortage of farm labour; one man with a tractor could plough far more land in a day than one man with a horse and he probably got more pay. But it cost money, and might never have happened if cheap labour had remained available. No doubt if we can’t get foreign workers for crop picking there will be incentive to develop suitable machines.
    So we need to maintain a balance, enough ‘cheap’ foreign labour to meet our immediate needs, but not so much that it is seen as the permanent solution and discourages innovation.

  22. libertarian
    Posted April 18, 2018 at 2:57 pm | Permalink

    No John

    What we actually need is for government to stop driving up the cost of employment, we’ve had workplace pensions, new living wage rates, increased benefits via paternity and other types of leave , GDPR and huge business rate rises.

    We’ve done our bit and created millions of good quality new jobs, now you deliver and reduce taxes, reduce overheads and let people earn more money

  23. Ron Olden
    Posted April 18, 2018 at 9:33 pm | Permalink

    The Remainer/Single Market/ Pro Customs Union fanatics have no credibility whatsover any more.

    They had precious little at the time of the Referendum itself. Which is why they lost.

    I don’t understand why the media keeps putting them on TV. They’re the political equivalent of Flat Earthers.

    • Stred
      Posted April 19, 2018 at 9:35 am | Permalink

      A funny cartoon in the Spectator this week. The Flat Earth Society is running a competition. First prize is

      Win a round the World trip.

  24. Ron Olden
    Posted April 19, 2018 at 6:49 pm | Permalink

    Carney is the worst Governor the Bank of England has had for some time. He’s marched us to near the top of the hill on this rate rise, and now he’s hesitating. We risk dying of exposure at the hill summit.

    He’s misled the market on the likely progress of interest rates before. And he’s done so, largely because he consistently overstates the prospects for inflation. Which is not surprising, as he’s clearly some sort of ‘Keynesian’. Although ‘what sort’, goodness knows.

    A rate rise must NOT be conditional on progress being made in the Brexit talks. These decisions must be on based monetary and economic conditions alone. And it might be an idea if he was consistent on whether ‘uncertainty’ in itself meant higher rates or lower rates.

    Before the Referendum, Carney was standing by whilst we were being told that a Leave Vote would mean higher rates. After the Leave Vote he cut rates.

    Now he’s telling us that the ‘uncertainty’ means rates have to stay lower than they otherwise would.

    A few years ago he was telling us that Base Rate would have to be raised above it’s (then) figure of 0.5% if unemployment fell below 7%. Now he tells us 0.5% might be high enough with unemployment at near 4%.

    Setting interest rates solely to target the unemployment rate, went out of fashion in 1979. And has he only just noticed that there are Post Brexit questions to be resolved?

    This May rate rise should go ahead as advertised. It’s all (or was till Carney spoke out today), priced into the money and foreign exchange markets already. Economic conditions (just about) merit the rise.

    And if it does turn out to have been slightly premature, it will enable next rise to be put off from the current assumed date of November, until after Brexit.

    If, in retrospect, a rise now turns out to have been very heavy handed they can use the headroom it creates, to pay the £37 Billion Divorce Settlement with a single dose of Quantitative Easing. i.e. print £37 Billion and buy EU Government Bonds with it.

    Get this over with now when the going is good. We don’t want things to rock the boat closer to Brexit, when Remainers will blame Brexit for almost anything.

  • About John Redwood

    John Redwood won a free place at Kent College, Canterbury, and graduated from Magdalen College Oxford. He is a Distinguished fellow of All Souls, Oxford. A businessman by background, he has set up an investment management business, was both executive and non executive chairman of a quoted industrial PLC, and chaired a manufacturing company with factories in Birmingham, Chicago, India and China. He is the MP for Wokingham, first elected in 1987.

  • John’s Books

  • Email Alerts

    You can sign up to receive John's blog posts by e-mail by entering your e-mail address in the box below.

    Enter your email address:

    Delivered by FeedBurner

    The e-mail service is powered by Google's FeedBurner service. Your information is not shared.

  • Map of Visitors

    Locations of visitors to this page