How much money do we save when we leave the EU?

I see some contributors here are out to belittle the amount of money we save when we leave the EU. Let me set out the official figures again:

OBR March 2018  p217 EU financial settlement

 

2019 figures (assuming we still pay full amount that year)

GNI based contribution   17.7bn Euro

VAT payments to EU         3.4bn Euro

Own resources (customs)   3.8bnEuro

TOTAL GROSS CONTRIBUTION   24.9bn Euro

UK rebate      4.7bn Euro

Public sector receipts  (money back)  6.3bn Euro

NET CONTRIBUTION   (Gross payments minus rebate and cash back) 13.9bn E   (£12bn)

We could save all this if we leave with no  deal or an improved deal. If we leave with Withdrawal commitments we will save all this once the transition and leaving payment is over.

 

 

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232 Comments

  1. Peter Wood
    Posted June 20, 2018 at 5:19 am | Permalink

    Good Morning,

    Suggest you spend every penny of that in thorough preparation for WTO trade terms on departure.
    Surely by now it is obvious to even the PM that the EU bureaucracy does not want a ‘close and special partnership’. (the PM doesn’t seem to have learnt the lesson of the general election, of repeating a fatuous slogan)

    • bigneil
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 8:35 am | Permalink

      And “lessons have been learned ” is always trotted out after a massive mistake, costing billions, which the average Joe Bloggs warned about.

    • hans christian ivers
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 8:46 am | Permalink

      Peter,

      Interesting observation but actually not the case.

      “The Eu definitely wants a deal with the UK” Quote David Davis

      • libertarian
        Posted June 21, 2018 at 9:08 am | Permalink

        hans

        Of course the EU wants a deal ( German car makers would destroy them otherwise) What they DON’T want is a close and special relationship.

    • Hope
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 9:54 am | Permalink

      JR, These figures and facts are false. The U.K. has agreed to pay £100 billion to talk about trade, the U.K. Has agreed welfare payments to EU citizens not set foot here or born, the U.K. gives the EU £3.75 billion for its EDF, May has agreed to a punishment extension and an extension to that. During this time the U.K. continues to pay its full amount as now plus he hidden add ons under the KitKat policy to hide from the public. The cost of not regaining our territorial waters and stocks not taken into account. Galileo? EU ARMY? Security?

      Today we read in Guido how your govt is considering staying in the single market for goods! This means accepting the four freedoms and accepting that the U.K. will not have control of its borders, money or laws.

      Then we have the latest scam of the NHS funding: no detail how this sum was reached, where the money would come from. Nothing about NHS, all about buying off. Leave ministers to con the public. Your party is a disgrace and your attempt to pull the wool over ours eyes in party interest rather than national interest is becoming a regular feature.

      • wondrinfree
        Posted June 21, 2018 at 12:42 pm | Permalink

        @Hope,
        When you claimed ‘these figures and facts are false’ can we take it you were talking about everything you said after that statement, because there is simply not one word of truth in any of it.

        • Hope
          Posted June 25, 2018 at 7:09 pm | Permalink

          And so you were proved wrong by admissions from govt ministers.

    • NickC
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 10:34 am | Permalink

      Peter Wood, Unfortunately Mrs May (still a Remain) is intent on implementing Remain policies.

      She wants an ongoing “deep and special relationship” with the EU, which she knows as well as anyone the EU will only allow in exchange for their continuing control over us (perhaps using the Eire/N.I. border as an excuse). She intends to sign a “Withdrawal treaty” which sets in stone her capitulations to the EU. She has already promised another treaty so that the EU controls our defence, security and diplomatic policies.

      This is BINO – Brexit In Name Only – where we nominally leave the EU, but are controlled by the EU, just as the Remains want. It is a mess of course. It is not Leave. But at least the resident Remain supporters on here will be happy.

    • Lifelogic.
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 1:10 pm | Permalink

      Repeating a fatuous slogan robotically and promising more taxatation and lower benefits in a foolish ‘vote for us and we will kick you in the teeth’ manifesto. This from a position of the highest taxes for 40 years and absolutely dire value delivered by public services. She and Hammond are currently at it again, tipping more money in the direction of the totally dysfunctional black hole of the unreformed NHS. Perhaps they can use it to “shorten” the lives of another 456 patients somewhere.

      If you “shorten the life of someone on purpose” is that not just simple murder? After all murder only ever shortens someone’s life – no one is immortal.

  2. Iain Gill
    Posted June 20, 2018 at 5:22 am | Permalink

    Surely we can have our share of the European central bank back?

    • NickC
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 10:40 am | Permalink

      Iain, The £39bn of our money that Mrs May has supinely promised the EU is a net figure. However, it is not what we legally owe the EU less what they legally owe us. It is the inflated amount that the EU has demanded from us with menaces, less what they owe us. The EU could hardly believe its luck in dealing with such a blindly Remain PM.

      • Lifelogic
        Posted June 21, 2018 at 5:30 pm | Permalink

        Exceptionally daft and clearly a socialist too.

    • Peter D Gardner
      Posted June 22, 2018 at 2:24 am | Permalink

      My memory is not clear but I think the EU told Mrs May to ‘go whistle’ and the government has not raised the matter since. But I might have missed it. Someone please correct me if I am wrong because the EU has no legal right to deny UK the return of its capital share in the EIB plus proportionate earnings. Lawyers for Britain’s Martin Howe has published on this. It would be typical of Mrs May to concede something the EU has no legal right to demand and not to demand something to which UK is legally fully entitled.

  3. Mark B
    Posted June 20, 2018 at 5:27 am | Permalink

    Good morning

    Interesting figures. But it is NOT why I and some others voted to leave. We voted to leave because we wanted to return to being a sovereign nation once more. Money and trade came way behind.

    Our kind host is also not factoring other costs. e.g. Fines and other contributions such as, when a grant is given by the EU the UK Government has to stump up the same amount of cash.

    But we will have to wait to see if we will get any real benefits or just have to put up with people shouting; “Look, a squirrel !”

    • Richard
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 5:37 pm | Permalink

      In addition to the visible £12Bn Net p.a., other parts of the EU funding iceberg:
      1) “£80billion lost to the Treasury after the European Court of Justice forced tax rebates to multinationals”
      http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/02/23/21448/#comment-921023
      2) “£50billion in Eurozone bailout obligations”
      3) areas defined as outside the EU Budget eg “European Peace Fund” http://facts4eu.org/news_jun2_2018.shtml#epf
      4) ‘European Development Fund’ http://http://facts4eu.org/news_apr_2017.shtml#eu_to_demand_billions_from_uk_in_foreign_aid_part_1)
      5) With big increases coming: http://facts4eu.org/news_may_2018.shtml#bud1

    • Blue and Gold
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 6:44 pm | Permalink

      You Brexmoaners just don’t get it.

      We ARE a sovereign nation, to say we are not is just plain daft.

      You are right, money and trade come far behind, way behind things such as nations being together, not divided.

      All Brexiteers should be made to visit the WW1 cemeteries. People like my grandfathers fought for UNITY, not division.

      • Edward2
        Posted June 21, 2018 at 6:51 am | Permalink

        I suggest you go off and read the Lisbon and Mastricht treaties.
        EU courts are supreme.
        Laws regulations and directives made in the EU automatically becomes UK law.
        One vote in 28 with 9 paying in the rest taking out.
        And a reducing number of issues we have a veto over.

        • Peter D Gardner
          Posted June 22, 2018 at 2:35 am | Permalink

          As far as I know the last vetos expired in November 2014. There are areas where unanimity is required but that is not a veto. I should be most grateful to know if there really are any national vetos extant.

          • Edward2
            Posted June 22, 2018 at 8:35 am | Permalink

            When I mentioned vetoes it was short for QMV which reduces our power to bloc.

      • libertarian
        Posted June 21, 2018 at 9:15 am | Permalink

        Blue & Gold

        As Bruno Marcaes ( former Foreign Minister of Portugal) said ” It astounds me how the extreme Remain camp in the UK are so ignorant about how the EU works ”

        Unity you say, so when will the EU be admitting WW2 ally Russia into the EU? Unity you say , yet there are 54 countries in Europe and only 27 are members, Unity you say yet we are members of the Commonwealth 2.3 billion citizens yet you want to hang around in a little corner of Europe

        Remainers ought to be made to find out how the EU actually works

      • Peter D Gardner
        Posted June 22, 2018 at 2:31 am | Permalink

        You are sadly misguided and suffering from illusions about the beneficent nature of the EU, an unaccountable and oppressive regime.
        Nations are free to co-operate if they wish. There is nothing to stop them. Top down autocracy simply alienates the entire population. That is your real choice. Just look at what is happening across Europe. open revolt everywhere and Greeks and Italians among others denigrating Germany, and so it goes on and gets worse. People who think their views are heard or that governments act in their interests are a minority. that is an appalling state of affairs.

      • NickC
        Posted June 22, 2018 at 9:54 am | Permalink

        B&G, Lisbon Declaration 17 says you are wrong.

  4. Lifelogic
    Posted June 20, 2018 at 5:30 am | Permalink

    Plus of course we can save far, far more still by moving away from the failed European Economic Model. Moving to lower taxes, a smaller state, freedom of choice, easy hire and fire, cut the green crap and go for cheap reliable energy, quality only (points based) immigration, cut all the daft regulations, relax planning, cut all the subsidies for mad things & fecklessness, cut all the worthless degrees, sort out the appalling NHS and the likes.

    Alas we have socialists Hammond and May standing in the way of all this.

    The current restrictions on bank lending under Hammond have created a new form of Dead Capital it is hugely damaging to the economy. Why on earth do we have this economic illiterate in No 11.

    • Peter D Gardner
      Posted June 22, 2018 at 2:40 am | Permalink

      He was put there by the occupant of No 11. For some reason the party holds steadfastly to the PM’s sole right to appoint whomsoever she decides. So the focus has to be Mrs May. She is a technocrat by nature and a supra-nationalist by belief. As such is acting more closely to the role of the EU’s Governor of the Province of Britain than she is as Prime Minister of UK. This is entirely consistent with both her utter determination to retain control of the negotiations and deny parliament any direction of the Government, and with her continual appeasement of the EU.

      • Peter D Gardner
        Posted June 22, 2018 at 2:46 am | Permalink

        Sorry I didn’t answer your question. the party elected Mrs May because of her weaknesses. Both Remain and Leave factions believed they could control her.
        My typo in first line which should read, “He was put there by the occupant of No 10.”

  5. Fedupsoutherner
    Posted June 20, 2018 at 5:30 am | Permalink

    I just hope we have a no deal but I can’t see parliament agreeing to that even though they agreed to coming out of the CU and SM two years ago. Those that wanted to remain couldn’t stop telling us that leaving both would be the result if we voted to leave. There is no excuse for their betrayal. As Mrs May is only promising this money in 2021? She obviously knows we are not going to get a no deal. This means some kind of CU and payments to the EU for years to come so I doubt we will ever see this money. Why are our politicians to eager to give away our money?

    • Tweeter_L
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 4:41 pm | Permalink

      Fed Up Southerner: Hear, hear – especially as we’ve had to borrow it in the first place

  6. Mick
    Posted June 20, 2018 at 5:32 am | Permalink

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/976607/brexit-news-eu-uk-theresa-may-tory-rebellion-commons-eu-withdrawal-bill-vote
    These Tory mps should have the whip taken from them then come the next GE deselected and go join the lib/dems if they love the Eu that much, they surely don’t believe in democracy or they would be listening to there constituents and the 17.4 million,

  7. Lifelogic
    Posted June 20, 2018 at 5:37 am | Permalink

    Theresa May (talking about how much more money she is going to give the NHS to waste) seems to have turned into a sort of Arthur Daley. We are giving them X billion “in cash”, she kept saying. Does she perhaps think they can then save a bit of VAT or something if it is sent in cash?

    Still another specific new law on ‘upskirting’ is clearly her main current priority. What planet is this dope on? Interesting & odd priorities she has.

  8. agricola
    Posted June 20, 2018 at 5:41 am | Permalink

    Thank you for your clarification. I assume that the public sector receipts cover CAP payments to our farmers, local government contributions, university contributions, and all the backhanders to keep such as the BBC on message. how we deal with these payments in future will be in our hands not the EU’s.

    The net contribution of £12 billion could be used to solve the NHS/Care for the aged problem as first suggested on the Brexit Bus, but derided by all and sundry. The key point is that we decide.

    • hans christian ivers
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 8:48 am | Permalink

      Agricola,

      There is “no EU benefit to be spent” source Institute for Fiscal Studies and OBR

      • Edward2
        Posted June 20, 2018 at 6:18 pm | Permalink

        Who got previous forecasts hopelessly wrong.

        • hans christian ivers
          Posted June 21, 2018 at 8:41 am | Permalink

          yes, but they can’t all get it wrong

          • libertarian
            Posted June 21, 2018 at 9:17 am | Permalink

            Why ? They seem to all get it wrong consistently. After all if they called it right it would be like knowing the winning lottery numbers in advance

            Tell you what hans , why dont you give me a link to an economist that called something significant correctly

          • NickC
            Posted June 22, 2018 at 10:02 am | Permalink

            Hans, Plenty of economists don’t agree with you, and their track record is better at EU/Brexit prediction than the IFS or OBR.

  9. Toffolo
    Posted June 20, 2018 at 5:55 am | Permalink

    All serious economists know these figures are dwarfed by the loss of export trade that follows Brexit. There is no brexit dividend, only brexit shooting in the foot

    • Richard1
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 9:23 am | Permalink

      Read Patrick Minford’s latest report. His record is much better than most economists. No reason for any loss of trade and plenty of opportunity to increase it. Note also that Merkel and Macron have just agreed such policies as harmonisation of Corp taxes, as promoted in the 5 presidents report but denied by Remain during the referendum.

      • stred
        Posted June 21, 2018 at 10:31 am | Permalink

        The Irish will love that. Bye bye Google. Maybe they could ask Mr Junker to let them have an exception in return for stitching up the UK over the border and acceptance of EU regulations and taxes. Can’t even find any Irish cheddar and beef to not buy these days.

    • Prigger
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 9:36 am | Permalink

      Serious economists do NOT factor in “loss” of export trade. Only a psychic with a crystal ball could think he KNEW it would be a loss.

      The EU may see our possible future trade connections outside the EU could benefit it in the scheme of things. Trade to and then re-export from third countries have certainly benefited China as Trump complains. Such re-exporting or adding value to certain imports and reexporting is not illegal.
      The EU can be thick.
      But one hopes not totally thick.

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 9:54 am | Permalink

      Really?

      Come on then, let’s see some evidence rather than just unsupported assertion.

    • graham1946
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 10:02 am | Permalink

      How can they ‘know’ something that has not happened? Probably won’t either if their earlier dire predictions are anything to go by. Why cannot you Reamoaners have a little faith in your own country and big it up for once? Too many years tied to Nanny’s apron strings and lack of courage and a fear of standing on ones own feet is the answer I think. Why do you think foreign politicians can run our country better than we can? Where’s the proof – Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy? You want to be like that?

    • agricola
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 10:28 am | Permalink

      Hope you have booked your flight out, the last thing we need is defeatists.

    • NickC
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 10:58 am | Permalink

      Toffolo, No economist can possibly “know” this. It is a prediction by some Remain economists only – it is speculation about the future. Just as “serious” economists predicted disaster if we didn’t join EMU.

      Throughout history peoples have clamoured for independence. The most recent striking example being the dismantling of the British Empire. They like being independent. Good for them. So do we. And vassal states do tend to be poorer.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 11:11 am | Permalink

      Complete drivel. They export more to us than we do to them. If they want to cut their nose to spite their face so be it. We can switch to other markets or to the home market to replace these imports.

      • Drachma
        Posted June 20, 2018 at 6:55 pm | Permalink

        Absolute nonsense..they are going to rub our noses in it so hard for causing all this trouble..we want to leave..but no we really don’t want to leave..we’d like another deal instead..please Sir

        • libertarian
          Posted June 21, 2018 at 4:17 pm | Permalink

          Drachma

          You mean the Germans will refuse point blank to sell us Mercedes cars ? The French will stop all exports of wine to the UK. Of course both countries will give up using mobile phones and tablets.

          Yes of course you must be right…… smh

          How many times do you people need to be told, people trade, not governments , people buy goods and services .

      • JoolsB
        Posted June 20, 2018 at 7:10 pm | Permalink

        Exactly. Why are our negotiators begging the EU for a trade deal? They should be begging us

    • Spratt
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 11:53 am | Permalink

      Economists ‘know’ nothing. They speculate on the basis of economic models that give differing results according to whatever data the economist decides to put into them

    • Zorro
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 1:13 pm | Permalink

      Yeah sure – show us the money!

      Zorro

    • Roy Grainger
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 2:07 pm | Permalink

      The same serious economists who told us there would be 500,000 job losses and a recession in the year following a Leave vote ?

    • Edward2
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 2:09 pm | Permalink

      You missed out the words “some” before economists and the word”possible” before loss of exports.
      To state that a pessimistic report predicting years into the future as a fact is ridiculous.

    • Posted June 20, 2018 at 2:37 pm | Permalink

      We are obviously going to take a hard short-term hit once Brexit is finally completed. You don’t have to be a “serious economist” to accept that. Long-term, we will be financially and politically better off. We will also have a chance to get our government done right with reforms of the Houses of Parliament, rather than being part of the increasing corruption and incompetence of Brussels.

      • Mark B
        Posted June 21, 2018 at 7:02 am | Permalink

        I 100% agree.

      • libertarian
        Posted June 21, 2018 at 4:23 pm | Permalink

        Mike Hall

        We are obviously going to take a hard short-term hit once Brexit is finally completed.

        In what way do you see that?

    • libertarian
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 3:52 pm | Permalink

      Toffolo

      Really? And exactly what trade are we going to lose? Series economists , are you sure? This kind of ignorant statement by Remainers is one of the main reasons Remain lost the vote. Simply you are clueless about trade.

      So according to you, once we leave the EU, no one will buy our world beating cancer scanners and medical technology, no one in the EU will ever buy a mobile phone or tablet again, no one in the EU will be buying drugs from 5 of the worlds top pharma companies , no one will ever drink scotch whiskey again, No one will ever buy a Coldplay album, Elton John, Adele . No one will buy the $68 billion of computers and other machinery that we sell each year.

      Toffolo ( and your serious economists) Silly me, the citizens of the EU will all be buying Greek mobile phones, German Umpah band music , French whiskey etc

      When will you people ever learn that people buy from people, trade is about buyers and sellers. Governments have nothing to do with it.

      Business 101

      If I make a product ( lets call it an iPhone x) and it sells for $999 in my home country if people want to buy the product they will pay , thats why exactly the same phone in Germany costs $1376 . So you see if UK products got a 2% tariff on them , as long as our products are desirable people in Germany and France etc will still buy them. If our products aren’t very good then no matter how low the price most consumers won’t buy.

      This is so astonishingly obvious , no wonder people get exasperated with remainers going on about single markets and customs unions when they have no idea what they are and how they work, or dont in the case of services.

      By the way our exports to the EU have been falling as a proportion of total exports of goods and services for 10 years. In 2006 it was 56% of export trade, We hit a low point in 2014 of 39% and its levelled out at 43% in 2016 . Meanwhile our exports to non EU countries grew 9.8% YTD

      • hans christian ivers
        Posted June 21, 2018 at 5:28 am | Permalink

        yes but it still grew as percentage proportion of our overall exports during 2016/17

        • libertarian
          Posted June 21, 2018 at 10:08 am | Permalink

          hans

          Good. Thats it is it? Nothing to say about any of the other stuff?

          • Dennis Zoff
            Posted June 21, 2018 at 3:13 pm | Permalink

            libertarian

            Remoaners/Remainers simply do not understand trade or the real inner workings of Brussels….but I must commend your forbearance for trying again to get them to understand….you must have the patience of Job!

          • hans christian ivers
            Posted June 21, 2018 at 8:35 pm | Permalink

            not worth the effort

          • libertarian
            Posted June 22, 2018 at 5:10 pm | Permalink

            Hans

            I understand, what you mean is you have no answer

    • Chris
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 7:12 pm | Permalink

      The alarm bells ring when you start your post, Toffolo, with “all serious economists”. You have got to do better than that! They got the aftermath of Brexit plain wrong, for a start.

  10. DUNCAN
    Posted June 20, 2018 at 6:00 am | Permalink

    Debating with Remain bigots is a pointless exercise. They simply refuse to accept the result of a democratic vote. Indeed the Remain position is fervently anti-democratic and deeply disturbing

    • eeyore
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 8:40 am | Permalink

      Quite agree Duncan. They’re obsessed with whether Brexit is right or wrong. Who knows? It’s the future. No one knows the future. It’s enough that Brexit is the verdict of the people, formally sought, formally given and formally ratified, and that reneging on it would be a shameless betrayal and a cheat.

      As to the terms of Brexit, the infamous leaflet delivered to every household was clear enough. That’s what we voted for, and that’s what Mrs May must deliver or die in the attempt. Fiat Brexitia ruat caelum.

    • Prigger
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 9:43 am | Permalink

      They could come round, to obviate tit-for-tat responses should the Opposition parties get into power and need cooperation with legislation cross-party. They can’t keep punching holes in the hull of the ship of state before everyone sinks.

    • simon
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 10:27 am | Permalink

      I know, discussion, facts, must be very difficult for you.. perhaps as a leaver you forget we are a parliamentary democracy, and Parliament is there to protect the Peoples of this nation, that’s their job.. it is not their job, to take instruction from the populace, uneducated on the very issue’s they are voting on, when that same decision will harm, those who voted for this idiocy the most, the poor and vulnerable. Yes, those who have money will have more, and with less money in the economy, even for you, surely the outcome is obvious. Democracy didn’t die the night of the vote.

      • Edward2
        Posted June 21, 2018 at 6:56 am | Permalink

        That is not what the referendum leaflet said.
        We voted. We are not uneducated nor uninformed.
        All your frantic project fear predictions will not change the fact that Article 50 has been implemented, by a huge majority in Parliament.
        Therefore next March we will no longer be members of the EU.

      • David Price
        Posted June 21, 2018 at 9:40 am | Permalink

        @simon “it is not their job, to take instruction from the populace”

        … But that is precisely what they agreed and committed to do.

        MPs have demonstrated that they are indeed uneducated on the very issues they are voting on to the point of willful ignorance – Kenneth Clarke boasting he hadn’t bothered to read the Maastricht Treaty before voting in the EU’s favour.

        Parliament is supposed to defend and represent our sovereignty, not give it away.

      • libertarian
        Posted June 21, 2018 at 10:25 am | Permalink

        Simon

        Parliament has now voted multiple times to accept the referendum, they had enow voted through the Withdrawal bill.

        To be honest , the uneducated and ignorant based on the posts on this forum are almost entirely from remainers .

        As Bruno Macaes ( former Foreign Minister Portugal) said ” Its odd that the Remain camp in the UK are naive and lack understanding in how the EU actually works “

    • Andy
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 11:13 am | Permalink

      On the contrary. I fully accept that Vote Leave won a small majority in June 2016 based on the claims it made prior to the referendum.

      Those claims were attractive. I can understand why people wanted to vote for all of the goods bits of the EU with none of the costs.

      But two years on we now know every single one of those claims was false. They were simply untrue.

      The reality of Brexit is very different to what we were promised – and Brexiteers are more angry about it than anyone.

      Rightly so. You were lied to by a bunch of charlatans who have mainly fled the scene.

      As soon as you accept that and blame the liars rather than those who warned you all along then we’ll get somewhere.

      • NickC
        Posted June 20, 2018 at 5:46 pm | Permalink

        Andy, We voted to Leave precisely so we didn’t get any of the bits of the EU. Moreover there are no “good bits of the EU” that we couldn’t get for ourselves as an independent nation. Remain couldn’t then, and still can’t, produce any real hard evidence about “good bits” – and apparently neither can you.

        It was the Remain campaign that was so full of lies that it became a joke in its own lifetime. Economic shock, 800,000+ jobs lost, austerity budget, stock market crash, pensioners hit, £10 back from the EU for every £1 put in (your style of arithmetic), even WW3 – did you think Remain could get away with such tripe?

      • Edward2
        Posted June 20, 2018 at 6:22 pm | Permalink

        We didn’t vote for “all the good bits….etc” that is your remainer fantasy.
        I like many, voted to gain freedom and to be a citizen of an independent nation once more, like the vast majority of nations on Earth.

      • Anonymous
        Posted June 20, 2018 at 6:36 pm | Permalink

        The only ones to have fled are Osborn and Cameron.

    • Bob
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 3:17 pm | Permalink

      There was a YouTube clip where a young lady at an anti Brexit demo with the EU flag painted on her face was asked, “what do you like most about the EU?”.

      Her reply: “The NHS”.

      • NickC
        Posted June 20, 2018 at 5:50 pm | Permalink

        Bob, Yes, that’s the thing about Remains – they call us thick uneducated knuckle draggers, but they know less about the EU than we do. They even pop up with objections to Leave that they think are new which were discussed by eurosceptics 10 or 20 years ago.

  11. alan jutson
    Posted June 20, 2018 at 6:03 am | Permalink

    I am not one of those who belittle the amount saved, indeed it is now good news that Mrs May recognises that there will be a Brexit bonus upon us leaving, but unfortunately given “at the moment” she is offering £39 billion in payments, that means there will be no bonus for at least four years until after we have left, if that present position remains.

    Such a shame that the positive news about extra funding for the NHS for the next 5 years has been announced in such a shoddy manner, with no clue or statement given about how much the proposed tax increase will be in order to pay for it.

    If you make an announcement, for goodness sake tell the whole story at the same time,.
    On average the UK population it would seem from past reports is happy to pay more for the NHS to function properly, so why keep the speculation of taxation increase nonsense going for another 6 months.

    Personally I would take at least half of our Foreign Aid spend Budget away and use that, It would be very, very popular outside the Westminster bubble.

    The Conservatives once again failing with PR.

  12. Roy Grainger
    Posted June 20, 2018 at 6:04 am | Permalink

    I don’t think anyone is arguing about that (except some remainers are using a 9bn figure). The argument put forward by Evidence-Based Policy guru Sarah Wollaston is that government tax receipts elsewhere will be reduced by more than that according to Project Fear projections “which the government have already accepted”.

    Sky News reported it would in fact not be possible to spend that money on the NHS because it was needed to maintain payments to farmers as promised. Obviously they are too thick to understand the difference between our net and gross contributions.

  13. Leslie Singleton
    Posted June 20, 2018 at 6:10 am | Permalink

    Dear John–Any ‘Cash Back’ should not be counted at twenty shillings in the pound for obvious reasons

    • Lifelogic
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 11:11 am | Permalink

      Perhaps one shilling in the pound at best in terms of value!

  14. onceuponatime
    Posted June 20, 2018 at 6:16 am | Permalink

    Anyone can put out figures like this.. and if you notice it’s mostly about money coming from the Leavers side but there is much more to the EU than money as we will see soon enough when we are on the outside looking in and wondering how could we have got it so terribly wrong- the full realization won’t kick in probably until we see the lights of Dover and Calais on a dimmer switch

    • Dennis Zoff
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 10:57 am | Permalink

      onceuponatime

      “there is much more to the EU than money”
      ….perhaps you could eruditely elucidate what “much more” means exactly?

      or, is this simply more Remoaner sciolistic piffle, again!

      • onceuponatime
        Posted June 21, 2018 at 5:35 am | Permalink

        Dennis Zoff..The EU has the four basic freedoms..the free movement of goods, services, capital and people..for me as a business and a retired person who travels a lot and who partly lives in France, my grand children go to school in the Netherlands, life in the EU and UK is the best with all of this easy movement. I well remember the 1950’s and 1960’s when life with UK customs officials- harassment was very severe at every turn- that was when life was difficult. That is why I say that now it’s about more than money

        • Dennis Zoff
          Posted June 21, 2018 at 3:04 pm | Permalink

          onceuponatime

          Thank you for your opinion, appreciated.

          However, it is clear you see the EU differently to the 17.4 million that do not share your personal passion for all things EU. The four basic freedoms have come at a great cost to the UK citizens. Perhaps if you delved a little deeper into the EU organisation, you may share our disappointment in its sheer incompetence. I personally believe there will be no change to what you personally desire once we have departed the EU.

        • libertarian
          Posted June 22, 2018 at 5:16 pm | Permalink

          onceuponatime

          The free movement of people is about the ability to work in other countries NOT move between them. I own a business in France , i travelled there a few months ago. I was required to show my passport 4 times. Exactly the same as when I travelled to France in the early 1970’s before we joined the EEC

          Of the other 3 freedoms, they never managed to implement the Services bit…..

    • Zorro
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 1:14 pm | Permalink

      Like what? We’re waiting…. Come on show us the money!

      Zorro

    • libertarian
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 4:01 pm | Permalink

      O-U-T

      Well its been 2 and a half years now and we are still waiting for the Remainers to tell us what it is we will be losing by leaving the EU.

      Go on tell us, or is it a secret?

      • Chris
        Posted June 20, 2018 at 7:16 pm | Permalink

        Their response is fluid, libertarian, depending on what the Brexiters do. Not convincing and not based on any principles. They just want to stop Brexit. Full stop. I don’t know if they realise how appalling their shenanigans appear to ordinary people.

      • hans christian ivers
        Posted June 21, 2018 at 5:30 am | Permalink

        as long as we do not know what the deal is, there is no definite answer to that particular question, so for the moment there is no answer to that particular question, you keep raising. And you know this as well.

        • libertarian
          Posted June 21, 2018 at 4:32 pm | Permalink

          hans

          Total nonsense , do you not understand simple questions ( i know the real answer to that, there isn’t any, you’re virtue signalling)

          Here it is again

          What do you see as the main benefits of being in the EU ? It has nothing to do with the final deal/no deal

          I’m asking you to tell me what you think we are losing

          Meanwhile your friends in Scandinavia are starting manoeuvres too

          55% of Danes in a recent poll would prefer to belong to a Nordic Federation rather than the EU

          Jimmie Åkesson’s Swedish Democrats have surged to first place in the polls ahead of September’s election. The party is anti-EU and have pledged a referendum on their membership.

          Its all starting to come home to roost

          • hans christian ivers
            Posted June 22, 2018 at 5:42 am | Permalink

            and since there is still a majority for EU in Denmark and Nordek is a sky potato you can say what you want

          • libertarian
            Posted June 22, 2018 at 5:17 pm | Permalink

            hans

            I notice for the 4th time you’ve ignored my very very simple question. To remind you it is What do YOU see as the Main benefit of being a member of the EU..

    • NickC
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 5:53 pm | Permalink

      Onceuponatime, Wrong, we voted Leave primarily to regain UK independence from the EU.

  15. Andy
    Posted June 20, 2018 at 6:27 am | Permalink

    Brexit fee – £39bn. My children will be paying this off until the 2060s.

    Lower growth because of Brexit – 1.3% last year. More to come.

    Brexit related trade barriers – £20bn+ per year.

    That’s just for starts. I win.

    • Rob Drummond
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 9:06 am | Permalink

      No you dont – you cannot count in what ”could or may happen”

      you have also conspicuously ignored the possibility (as possibilities are what you deal in) the Euro will ultimately collapse, or at best be substantially reformed – which WILL hurt Euro Economies (with the probably exception of Germany)..

      • Andy
        Posted June 20, 2018 at 5:59 pm | Permalink

        True. But then I have also conspicuously ignored the possibility that the Brexit related boom in flying pigs and golden unicorns may also make us rich.

        • libertarian
          Posted June 22, 2018 at 7:05 pm | Permalink

          Andy

          You’ve also ignored the record rate of inward investment, the boom in digital tech, and the massive amount of jobs we’ve created. So basically you’re ignoring everything outside your fervid imagination

    • Richard1
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 9:27 am | Permalink

      Yes the Brexit fee is indeed a deduction, if it’s paid. But £12bn in perpetuity and growing is worth somewhere between £200bn and £1tr depending on the discount rate you use, so the fee is small. It is of course nonsense to attribute the whole of the explanation for lower growth to Brexit (although I’d guess the uncertainty is some explanation – but i think the threat of Corbyn is bigger). The alleged £20bn cost of new trade barriers is conclusion based evidence making – misleading nonsense (see Patrick Minford’s report).

    • Prigger
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 9:47 am | Permalink

      Nine months left to you and your family’s Armageddon. Are your passports up-to-date? There could be a rush with queues stretching from my garden gate to the bottom of our stairs…or longer if the sun’s out.

    • Dave Andrews
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 10:56 am | Permalink

      The mandarins in Brussels are doing their utmost to prove you right, even if that means damaging economies in Europe. Just underlines voting to leave was the right decision.
      If trade barriers cost £20bn+ per year, that seems to justify Trump’s move to suppress imports from the EU, not to mention our own reciprocal barriers after we leave.
      I hope you win – by your own enterprise and success. Meanwhile, the EU is set to lose.

    • NickC
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 11:16 am | Permalink

      Andy, So you “win” by having your children pay off the EU’s fee of £39bn? Strange.

      UK GDP growth 1956 – 1973 was higher, and less volatile than the period 1974 – 2017 inside the EU (EEC) (see: tradingeconomics annual GDP).

      The vast majority of UK GDP (c89%) is not derived from exporting to the EU. But all of our economy is hampered by EU bureaucracy and inappropriate standards. There is no rational reason for the c11% to control the c89%.

      • Andy
        Posted June 20, 2018 at 6:03 pm | Permalink

        My children are 6 and 10. Most of you are (angry) old white men.

        In 2060 when your Brexit bill is finally paid off you will pretty much all be long dead.

        I will probably be long dead too – unless I reach my 90s.

        My son, on the other hand will be 48.

        His children will be paying off a bill YOU all racked up because you don’t like foreigners.

        This would all be so much easier if we just tackled pensioners’ bigotry.

        • Richard1
          Posted June 21, 2018 at 6:43 am | Permalink

          You seem to be mathematically challenged. Our children will be saving the future value of £12bn pa.

        • Edward2
          Posted June 21, 2018 at 6:58 am | Permalink

          Let’s start with the House of Lords.

        • libertarian
          Posted June 21, 2018 at 4:40 pm | Permalink

          Andy

          You told us you were going to live in France, so your kids won’t be contributing to anything in the UK.

          I’m not angry I’m full of optimism , I believe we have a golden future. Unless our politicians continue to make a mess of it, but frankly even that is coming to an end. Blockchain, digital, AI and tech is freeing us from this stifling bureaucracy and inept management by the nanny state. The global longtail and the rise of wealth in Asia and Sub Saharan Africa is gathering pace. Loads of opportunities , especially in tech, one field that the UK is world leader in.

          Instead of coming on here ranting every day, why dont you try giving us the benefit of your superior intellect and predictive powers and tell us what new inventions and markets we can expect leading up to 2060

          • hans christian ivers
            Posted June 22, 2018 at 11:10 am | Permalink

            again unnecessary

          • libertarian
            Posted June 22, 2018 at 7:07 pm | Permalink

            hans

            I agree Andy’s rants are rude and unnecessary and I’m disappointed in you that you seem to agree with him

      • hans christian ivers
        Posted June 21, 2018 at 8:45 am | Permalink

        NickC.

        this is not how the economy works anyway, but you probably already know that anyway

        • Dennis Zoff
          Posted June 21, 2018 at 3:21 pm | Permalink

          hans christian ivers

          “but you probably already know that anyway”

          You state the erroneous obvious time and time again….do you not understand how to use the word “tacit”?

    • Original Richard
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 1:02 pm | Permalink

      Freedom is priceless and I’m very glad that my father and his generation did not think the way you do when faced with the economic consequences of standing up to a foreign power unelected by us who wished to control the UK.

    • Zorro
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 1:17 pm | Permalink

      Nonsense – nothing is agreed until everything is agreed!

      No exit fee for nothing….

      Prove lower growth is due to Brexit. You can’t. It is clearly because of policies imposed by this government.

      Brexit barriers nonsense – that figure is ludricous and I don’t know ANYONE who accepts it except you of course!

      Zorro

    • Roy Grainger
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 2:08 pm | Permalink

      You can’t accuse John of wanting to pay the exit fee – it’s you Remainers who are insisting on paying that.

    • Edward2
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 2:13 pm | Permalink

      All just feverish predictions as usual.
      No fee paid.
      Lower growth than….you can never state that as a fact.
      Trade barriers £20 billion…a complete guess of something that hasn’t happened and may well turn out to be far less.

    • Bob
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 3:22 pm | Permalink

      @Andy

      “My children will be paying this off until the 2060s.”

      not if they go to live in Bucharest.

      • hans christian ivers
        Posted June 21, 2018 at 8:46 am | Permalink

        unnecessary

        • libertarian
          Posted June 21, 2018 at 4:41 pm | Permalink

          hans

          For goodness sake either contribute some facts or stop posting. These pompous windbag posts of yours are tedious. Mad Andy has repeatedly told us he is going to live abroad

          • hans christian ivers
            Posted June 22, 2018 at 11:11 am | Permalink

            and if you stop lecturing like an old professor the remarks will stop, I use facts when I need them

          • libertarian
            Posted June 22, 2018 at 7:10 pm | Permalink

            hans

            You have not posted a single fact on here. When challenged to answer a simple question, you go pompous . The mark of someone devoid of rational argument .

            I am an old professor, so naturally I lecture like one

    • libertarian
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 4:03 pm | Permalink

      Fact free Andy strikes again

      You won’t be paying anything as your company has gone bust and you said you were moving to your palace in France. Are you not being entirely straight with us?

  16. Adam
    Posted June 20, 2018 at 6:36 am | Permalink

    Above the raw figures for payments, we save all the internal expense that encumbers our businesses & citizens at home with processes in conforming to EU diktats.

    Most valuable of all, we save our freedom.

    Independence from the EU has a value higher than any financial performance can reach.

    • hans christian ivers
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 8:50 am | Permalink

      Adam,

      We still have EU standards, regulation and certification challenges if we wish to trade with our most important trading partner that will not change

      • NickC
        Posted June 20, 2018 at 5:58 pm | Permalink

        Hans, But that only applies to c11% UK GDP after we leave, not all of it.

        • hans christian ivers
          Posted June 21, 2018 at 8:49 am | Permalink

          NickC

          You unfortunately really do not know what you are talking about.

          The deals we have through the EU with third countries often follow. but not always follow the same standards and regulations, as we do in this country to avoid having more regulations and standards than necessary (source RIA)

          • libertarian
            Posted June 21, 2018 at 4:44 pm | Permalink

            hans

            unnecessarily rude

          • NickC
            Posted June 22, 2018 at 10:21 am | Permalink

            Hans, The “deals we have through the EU with third countries” are few and minor except for Canada and S.Korea, which are a decade away from full implementation. As you have been told before.

      • Edward2
        Posted June 20, 2018 at 6:26 pm | Permalink

        Companies that sell into export markets already supply products which meet the requirements of that marketplace.
        The vast majority of UK companies only supply the home market.

      • libertarian
        Posted June 20, 2018 at 8:45 pm | Permalink

        hans

        On the best estimate just 8% of UK businesses trade with the EU. There are 5.7 million UK businesses so thats roughly just under 5ooK . Which means that 5.2 million businesses are having to conform to standards, regulations and certifications that aren’t entirely needed. Even the EU estimate that this is a huge burden costing upwards of 500 billion Euros across the EU. Estimated by some to be £33billion per year in the UK.

        Those countries that wish to continue to trade with the EU are perfectly capable of complying with EU standards etc in exactly the same way that I have to comply with US standards or Chinese regulations if i wish to trade there . This really isn’t difficult to understand

        • hans christian ivers
          Posted June 21, 2018 at 8:56 am | Permalink

          Libertarian,

          This all makes a lot of sense. But once standards and regulations are implemented everybody wishes to make sure they do not have to change them again. SO, we for example start implementing new UK standards.

          This is one issue the next one is compatibility in regulations and certification.

          In addition the countries that already have a trade agreement with the EU, will often follow these standards as well, so the figure becomes that much larger.

          This really is not that difficult to understand.

          Yes and we export as much to China as we export to Ireland.

          • libertarian
            Posted June 21, 2018 at 4:56 pm | Permalink

            hans

            Oh boy, you have a lot of international business experience so you really should have paid more attention to the reality of what goes on.

            Why you think that the EU is the arbiter of global regulations, standards and rules Ive no idea.

            Most countries in FTA’s accept mutual recognition of standards . Baring in mind we are talking about manufactured goods here ( the service based regulations are entirely different and the EU is about to get its arse handed to it on a plate over some of the nonsense they are planning) , the safety and usage specs are fairly obvious, the differences normally come in power ratings, co2 output levels etc , there are not normally that many regulatory differences .

            There are numerous global standards bodies IEEE, BASLE Agreements, ITU, in fact over 50

            Perhaps you could give me a real example of a product that would not be acceptable to the EU that would have divergent specs.

            Oh and you are typical of the type of people who run the EU. You are so far removed from creativity and innovation its untrue. Do you not understand that divergence from the existing product spec is what leads to the creation of new products. Blimey I really shouldn’t have to explain this to someone with your experience

          • Edward2
            Posted June 21, 2018 at 8:21 pm | Permalink

            There are lots of different customer requirements in export markets.
            There are lots of different standards and specifications in export markets.
            Even between nations in Europe.
            But manufacturers that export meet all these requirements already.
            There are bodies like ISO who try to minimise the differences and do good work.

      • David Price
        Posted June 21, 2018 at 4:57 am | Permalink

        As an exporter I would expect to comply with the regulations and requirements of my target markets, but that does not mean they must apply everywhere else including to domestic trade.

        The EU is clearly not our most “important” trading partner since we get the dirty end of the stick in our trade relations with them and they constrain our trade relations with everyone else.

    • simon
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 10:28 am | Permalink

      What freedoms are you most looking forward to regaining on a personal basis?

      • NickC
        Posted June 20, 2018 at 6:16 pm | Permalink

        Simon, As a free voter within an independent UK? No longer being a serf of the EU empire; being able to elect and remove our own government; being able to campaign against unjust laws so that MPs notice and are free to respond; not being forced to contribute money to the EU; being free of the EAW; being free to refuse my help as the EU descends into chaos; not being forced to bail out the Euro (again); being free of UK civil servants conniving with their EU “colleagues” behind my back; being free of continuing over-intrusive and/or inappropriate laws; etc; etc; etc.

        • David Price
          Posted June 21, 2018 at 5:05 am | Permalink

          I suspect there will be UK people who continue to connive with the EU doing anything they can to damage and disrupt us. The struggle to free ourselves of the EU tentacles and bureaucrats will not cease on 30th March 2019.

          This could and should have been an amicable separation however the EU and our own bureaucrats and politicians have made it anything but.

      • Adam
        Posted June 20, 2018 at 7:33 pm | Permalink

        Having what has been my ancestral home for over 300 years restored to self-government.

  17. Anonymous
    Posted June 20, 2018 at 6:43 am | Permalink

    We’ll have even more revenue once cannabis is legalised (not !)

    Once legalised it should be taxed punitively like alcohol and tobacco. If not then why not ?

    I wonder if a certain leading legaliser will allow his airline pilots and train drivers to use it on their days off. If not then why not ?

    Perhaps he spies more NHS opportunities.

  18. Narrow Shoulders
    Posted June 20, 2018 at 6:45 am | Permalink

    What a complete waste of (our) money. Who agreed to this level of wastage? Did our sovereign Parliament spend as much time scrutinising and agreeing the formula or was it waved through on the nod?

  19. acorn
    Posted June 20, 2018 at 6:50 am | Permalink

    The IFS is saying £8 BN. To get to your £12 BN, the government would have to renege on replacing 100%, EU spending in the UK, is that the plan?

    The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR, the government’s independent and official forecaster) currently assumes that upon leaving the EU, any payments that would have been made to the EU will be recycled into other forms of spending. This is the OBR’s ‘fiscally neutral assumption’ made in the absence of clear government policy on the matter.

    “The government could in principle replace all EU funding in the UK and still have around £8 billion (the net contribution) that could either be spent elsewhere, used to finance tax cuts or used to reduce the deficit. While this is some way from £350 million per week …”

  20. Michael Wood
    Posted June 20, 2018 at 6:50 am | Permalink

    I understand from http://www.facts4eu.org that there are also ‘under the counter’ contributions by the UK that have not been discussed in Parliament and are not included in the figures you have quoted above!

  21. margaret
    Posted June 20, 2018 at 6:57 am | Permalink

    I think we were told that even with the rebate the NHS would still need more money and that in itself belittles savings.

  22. Posted June 20, 2018 at 7:10 am | Permalink

    Well I still worry about the ‘transition and leaving payment’.

    Especially if Mrs. May is in charge.

    • Hope
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 10:09 am | Permalink

      There is no transition. The U.K. is not changing from one thing to another it is remaining as a vassal state. What is changing in the punishment extension that is not already happening? That is just political lies to con the public.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 11:15 am | Permalink

      I worry about everything with T May in charge. She is clearly as daft as a brush and wrong on almost everything. (but at least we get an upskirting law and gender pay reporting I suppose).

      My main worry is that she is so inept, misguided, pathetic and cowardly that she might even give us a Corbyn/SNP government.

      • Chris
        Posted June 20, 2018 at 7:19 pm | Permalink

        She is a tool for the eurocrats and can be employed to perform whatever task they ask. Ductile and malleable comes to mind from Chemistry O level days (and also dense?).

      • JoolsB
        Posted June 20, 2018 at 7:25 pm | Permalink

        You’re not alone Lifelogic – pity Conservative MPs haven’t got the guts to replace her. She’s making the party unelectable with her promises of tax increases and her EU dithering.

  23. Drachma
    Posted June 20, 2018 at 7:12 am | Permalink

    However it works out we will still pay..if not paying VAT to the EU we’ll be paying it to the treasury..today we hear again that GCHQ wants a bespoke arrangement..last week a special case for Galileo was being put forward..are we going to leave or are we going to half leave? 😂

    • Chris
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 8:51 am | Permalink

      Mrs May is like a learner driver dithering on a roundabout. Could some competent Brexiters put an end to the dithering for the safety/survival/wellbeing of all concerned and just tell her which is the right exit to take. To continue the analogy, she just shouldn’t be on the roads, in my view.

    • NickC
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 11:28 am | Permalink

      Drachma, At the moment the UK will nominally leave the EU treaties post March 2019. Unfortunately Mrs May has capitulated to Remain on almost everything except the CAP, so in practice we will remain subject to the EU for years.

      There will be a Brexit dividend because we will cease to pay the annual membership fee, but offset against that is the £39bn bribe and ongoing payment for all continued subjugation by the EU that Mrs May has engineered.

  24. Newmania
    Posted June 20, 2018 at 7:12 am | Permalink

    The OBR, in material released alongside the chancellor’s spring statement, said it expected the total divorce settlement to be c . £37.1bn Overall , the OBR stressed that lower migration, sluggish productivity growth and an economic slowdown – as well as higher inflation would lead government borrowing to increase by about £15bn a year by 2023.The claim there is a Brexit bonus, is therefore , according to the OBR, not true
    I would like John Redwood to clarify is he us making such a claim a claim or not because this post would be easy to misinterpret in such a way . A clear sentences of this sort would be fine :
    “I John Redwood accept there will be no Brexit bonus which was a false claim ”

    PS I have huge problems with other aspects of his “summary” which I will return to if I have time

    • Edward2
      Posted June 21, 2018 at 7:01 am | Permalink

      It’s a prediction.
      One of 15 years into the future.
      Previous predictions can be seen to be very pessimistic.
      You treat them as facts.
      They are just predictions.

    • libertarian
      Posted June 21, 2018 at 5:02 pm | Permalink

      Newmania

      I have done a huge amount of analysis and looked at all the available data , Ive done this from an independent point of view , here is a fact for you

      In 2032 on a Saturday in mid year 02 20 36 39 55 56 will be the winning lottery numbers

      • hans christian ivers
        Posted June 22, 2018 at 7:02 am | Permalink

        Libertarian

        One day when I have enough time I will explain to you what a free trade zone really entails

        • libertarian
          Posted June 22, 2018 at 8:03 pm | Permalink

          hans

          1) What on earth has you silly post got to do with this particular thread?

          2) I’m fully aware of what a free trade zone is ( hint , it isn’t anything in the internal market of the EU)

          3) You seem to have plenty of time to pontificate, nanny and lecture but not enough time to post anything factual

          I’m very disappointed in you hans, your credibility is sinking by the day

  25. fedupsoutherner
    Posted June 20, 2018 at 7:18 am | Permalink

    Sorry John, this is what I meant to put in over the abolition of the HOL.

    As stated in our manifesto, comprehensive reform of the House of Lords is not a priority for this parliament.

    Therefore, the Government does not intend to hold a referendum on the abolition of the House of Lords.

    As set out in the manifesto, comprehensive reform of the House of Lords is not a priority. Therefore, the Government does not intend to hold a referendum on the abolition of the House.

    The Government is committed to ensuring that the House of Lords continues to fulfil its constitutional role as a revising and scrutinising chamber which respects the primacy of the House of Commons. We will also continue to work to ensure that the House of Lords remains relevant and effective by addressing issues such as its size.

    The Lord Speaker’s committee on the size of the House of Lords, chaired by Lord Burns, made recommendations in October 2017 on ways of reducing the size of the House without requiring legislation. In response, The Prime Minister has written to the Lord Speaker and agreed to continue with the restraint she has shown so far when making appointments to the House. It is incumbent on all sides of the House to consider what they can do to further promote the culture of retirement. In light of the Prime Minister’s letter, the Lord Speaker has reconvened the Committee to consider next steps.

    We are lumbered with what we have got now and probably more obnoxious appointments in the future.

  26. Denis Cooper
    Posted June 20, 2018 at 7:19 am | Permalink

    The government has allowed its various opponents to establish a false narrative that we will be paying to leave the EU when the truth is the opposite, that we will only be paying because we made the mistake of joining the EEC in the first place. It should never have allowed grossly misleading terms such as “exit fee” and “divorce settlement” to have gained such wide circulation that they are now unquestioned parts of the political lexicon, its Brexit rapid rebuttal unit should have been instantly down on anybody and everybody who used such terms in the media and put them right. But then of course it has never had any such Brexit rebuttal unit, rapid or otherwise, and to the contrary it has permitted, or maybe even encouraged, public resources to be misused to continue Project Fear almost as if it is still following the previous official policy of remaining in the EU.

  27. Anonymous
    Posted June 20, 2018 at 7:21 am | Permalink

    No money saved.

    According to Remainers any economic woes will be down to Brexit and not BofE/Govt economic slow down measures.

    There are also carbon emission cuts which have made energy expensive.

    All very well Remainers stating that the EU is cutting carbon emissions too but BP figures show Germany’s have increased dramatically.

    I’m not suprised with all that cannabis being smoked. And the muggy thinking.

  28. Ian wragg
    Posted June 20, 2018 at 7:23 am | Permalink

    Tonight is a day that will be a turning point in the future of this once proud and independent country.
    If the rebels succeed then we are lost.
    May has to go and a true patriot put in her place.
    Yesterdays meeting between Macron and Merkel should act as a warning to the Remainiacs as to the nature of the Franco German stitch up that is the EU.

    • Right Wing Extremist
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 10:05 am | Permalink

      Don’t worry. It will work out for us, whatever 🙂

    • eeyore
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 5:06 pm | Permalink

      Congratulations to JR and his fellow Brexiters in the House. Freedom-hating Remainer saboteurs stared into the abyss and bottled it. If not their Waterloo, today was at least their Quatre Bras.

      They will regroup, of course. The great battle is yet to come. I hope all who follow this heart-shaking narrative relish the historic times we live in and gladly acknowledge the debt we owe our champions in Parliament.

      One day, perhaps, the names Redwood and Mogg will resonate like Pym and Hampden. Given the contemptible nature of British education (aka statist propaganda) it seems unlikely. But we can live in hope.

      • Chris
        Posted June 20, 2018 at 7:20 pm | Permalink

        Oh that they would rise to their full stature…..

  29. Brian Tomkinson
    Posted June 20, 2018 at 7:41 am | Permalink

    Thank you for stating the details so clearly. However, the Remoaners will never accept that any benefit derives from leaving the EU. Membership of this anti-democratic, protectionist club seems to be akin to a religion to many of them.

  30. Denis Cooper
    Posted June 20, 2018 at 7:46 am | Permalink

    Off-topic, according to Sky News the EU has now marked our most recent homework on the fabricated ‘Irish problem’, graded it 0/10, and scrawled “Very poor. Must try harder.” in red ink across every page that we put in.

    I agree that our government should try harder; it should start by backing away from Theresa May’s unnecessary and stupid concession in her March Mansion House speech, effectively accepting responsibility for whatever deliberately obstructive or otherwise idiotic measures the EU may choose to implement on its side of the border.

    Nowhere in the EU treaties does it say:

    “A member state which decides to withdraw from the Union shall be responsible for solving any and all problems that its withdrawal may cause for the Union and other member states continuing in the Union”.

    As for the best plan, I have outlined that previously, for example here:

    http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/06/14/in-the-customs-doldrums-again/#comment-940587

    and the crucial passage is:

    “… we should do nothing at all at the border; we should leave it exactly as it is now, with completely free and unchecked movement of both goods and people … “

  31. NHSGP
    Posted June 20, 2018 at 7:48 am | Permalink

    Where’s the CAP number?

    • acorn
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 4:52 pm | Permalink

      €3.83 bn (£3.11 bn in 2016). Agriculture and Fisheries represent 54% of EU spending in the UK.

  32. Know-Dice
    Posted June 20, 2018 at 7:49 am | Permalink

    Many thanks for these figures…now off topic 🙁

    You will no doubt be busy today – please make sure that Mrs May stands firm against the “rebels”, anything else shows that she intends to deliver Brexit in Name Only…

    It is also clear from Barnier’s comments on security and Galileo that he is not interested in what is best for the EU, UK and Europe just to keep regurgitating the same old EU dogma.

    There is no negotiation, May needs to recognise this and deal with our future relationship with the best interests of the UK foremost in her strategy.

    • Hope
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 10:05 am | Permalink

      Oh please. Stand firm? Name a key point in her Lancaster speech, her red lines, strap lines that she has stood firm on to leave the EU? The exception being her punishment extension and now she has changed that to extension on an extension! But her punishment extension was not a key point to leave.

      • Know-Dice
        Posted June 21, 2018 at 7:54 am | Permalink

        We can but hope, Hope…

        Apparently the flying pig farmers of Maidenhead are doing a roaring trade…

    • Helen Smith
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 1:54 pm | Permalink

      Correct in all respects. It will be the end of anyone’s career to vote against the government today, small mercy at least for the Tories if we, that is 17.4m Leavers lose.

  33. Richard1
    Posted June 20, 2018 at 7:52 am | Permalink

    Well set out thank you, hopefully this will silence the fake facts emerging from so many sources on the absence of a potential Brexit dividend.

    I received an email from Mrs May yesterday,headed “ You’ll never guess what we got the NHS for its birthday…£394m per week”. I will continue to vote Conservative but there must be many who will find this exceptionally irratiating and patronising. 4 years before the next election we already in an auction as to how to look as virtuous as possible by promising ever more money to “our” NHS. Meanwhile the main item on the news is the killing of some NHS patients due to incompetence and the newspapers are full of stories of absurd waste – millions on consultants, loo rolls costing a quid, surgical gloves costing 10x more than they should. No mention of any attempt to reform and improve the NHS.

    It’s really quite depressing. I guess it’s down to the leadership.

    • Student
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 8:24 am | Permalink

      And all funded by tax increase. When will we see some proper conservative policy?

      • JoolsB
        Posted June 20, 2018 at 7:26 pm | Permalink

        When we get a proper Conservative Government???

    • Fedupsoutherner
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 8:31 am | Permalink

      Richard1,yes I said this before. The amount if money being paid for some items is absurd. Who is going the buying for some of these hospitals? They should be sacked. Most of these items would cost less in your local supermarket.

    • formula57
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 8:46 am | Permalink

      Voter cynicism rather then credit seems to flow from the NHS funding announcement. It does have the look of a hastily prepared gimmick and exemplifies the lack of sureness and soundness of the May government. Does it have to be like this?

    • Mike Wilson
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 8:49 am | Permalink

      It’s really quite depressing. I guess it’s down to the leadership.

      You pay peanuts … Why would anyone put themselves out for £200k a year?

    • JoolsB
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 9:49 am | Permalink

      This socialist Government haven’t got the guts to sort out the NHS, Labour would have a field day which might lose them votes and that’s all that matters at the end of the day. Better to compete with Labour on how much of our hard earned money they can chuck at it instead. Oh for a Conservative Government with the courage to do what’s needed…..!!

    • Hope
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 10:03 am | Permalink

      Unusually, More fool you. You will never achieve change by voting the same. You are also not voting for a Conservative party that went years ago. The statement about NHS funding was a clear unequivocal statement that May has taken her party to the left of New alabour not the realms of magic money trees! You even make the point about the NHS procurement needing reform before any additional money should be given.

    • a-tracy
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 11:40 am | Permalink

      The UK has borrowed £22bn to bail out the Eurozone quite happily. The government decided to loan this money to Ireland at rates half that it chooses to charge English graduates on their loan which is infuriating!

      There are plenty of people in the UK who want the NHS spending to increase, however, I’m one of those people who think we should investigate how we spend our Health dividend bonus wisely especially if we are borrowing the money to finance it. For example, if our hospitals are struggling and charge say £5000 to do a hip replacement but we can buy it elsewhere for £2500 including stay shouldn’t we offer the public this and clear the lists. Our hospitals are struggling they tell us, especially A&E this needs swift investigation and we need to set up a charging system and claim our fair share back from the EU as they do with us.

    • Bob
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 3:38 pm | Permalink

      @Richard1

      “the main item on the news is the killing of some NHS patients”

      The report referred to it as “life shortening”.

      • Richard1
        Posted June 20, 2018 at 5:53 pm | Permalink

        Yes a ridiculous euphamism

    • Chris
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 7:23 pm | Permalink

      The Conservatives will never recover until they ditch the idiot direction of the Party at the moment, Richard1. Why are they so unperceptive, or rather, plain stupid?

  34. Peter Miller
    Posted June 20, 2018 at 7:53 am | Permalink

    Be nice to no longer be subsidising French, Italian and Spanish farmers and those who make it impossible to audit the EU budgets.

    • JoolsB
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 9:43 am | Permalink

      True but we’ll still be subsidising farmers here not to mention all landowners. Even the Queen has done very nicely out of the ridiculous common agricultural policy.

  35. A.Sedgwick
    Posted June 20, 2018 at 8:03 am | Permalink

    I understand the public sector receipts are largely at the whim of Brussels and our involvement only advisory and as lobbyists.

  36. Beecee
    Posted June 20, 2018 at 8:07 am | Permalink

    Why do some commentators say that we shall get a negative Brexit dividend?

    Is this based on post Brexit spurious growth expectations or real money?

    • Newmania
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 9:45 am | Permalink

      It is not just commentators it is a little thing we call the treasury . We are in the absurd position of a government announcing to the “little people” there is a Brexit bonus whilst budgeting within the fiscal constraints of a loss of tax revenue
      My guess is that this lie is designed to stop Fiscal conservatives from crying wolf on territory Corbyn can hardly enter .
      The fact it is not in any sense true is relatively unimportant .It reminds me a bit of the vast fictional NHS bonus that was covered as ” The Gord Giveth” years ago. £20bn turned out to be about 50p of new money

    • Hope
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 9:59 am | Permalink

      There is no dividend for years based on the appaling deal May has agreed to date with the equally useless Davis. Why are Leave MPs and ministers know accepting this capitulation to remain in the EU by a different name is the real question? I suspect they think they can get full leave at a further date, but have not factored in that remainers are fanatics who will not stop until a clean break is truly made. No compromises, we did not vote for a compromise, we voted leave.

    • Edward2
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 2:14 pm | Permalink

      It is all predictions dressed up as facts.
      Usual remainer research think tanks.

  37. Peter VAN LEEUWEN
    Posted June 20, 2018 at 8:22 am | Permalink

    I might have indeed been too pessimistic with my recent calculation:
    £12bn.Number of households in the UK 22.7 mln
    £12bn/22.7mln households=£529.
    BOE calculation:-£900
    Brexit dividend =£529-£900=-£371 peer household (and not -£460, apologies)
    A remaining issue is that not everybody in the UK trusts its BOE, trust being in short supply these days.

    • NickC
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 6:23 pm | Permalink

      PvL, As you should know the BoE magic £900 was estimated from the BoE guesses as to what the economy would have done in theory if we had voted Remain. It is not a real figure.

    • Edward2
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 6:28 pm | Permalink

      That is irelevant.
      The saving is to government.
      Nothing goes to individual households.

  38. JoolsB
    Posted June 20, 2018 at 8:38 am | Permalink

    It’s disgraceful that the politicians have allowed this to go on for so long and even more disheartening that so many of them want it to continue.

    £12 billion x 44 (years) = a staggering £528 billion. Add that to the ridiculous arbitrary foreign aid budget we squander every year – just think of all the good uses in this country that could have been put to over the years. And yet socialists May and Hammond still talk about taxing us more and robbing our elderly (only the thrifty ones of course) of all their assets should they need to go into care and don’t get me started on the crippling debts this Government are happy to bestow on England’s young. They are a disgrace!!

  39. Mike Wilson
    Posted June 20, 2018 at 8:47 am | Permalink

    I think it would be very helpful to the debate – and shut up some of the hysterical remainers – if the government simply said:

    Anyone currently receiving EU payments now will continue to receive them for the next 10 years. After that, we will review.

    Then all the idiots shouting about our farmers not getting subsidies and ‘the regions’ not getting subsidies, would have nothing to shout about. It seems very simple – we pay the money to the EU and they pay it to our farmers. So, we pay it direct to our farmers. Mr. Redwood, why doesn’t the government simply do this?

  40. formula57
    Posted June 20, 2018 at 8:52 am | Permalink

    The savings you quote show how much money has been squandered since the referendum and Mr. Cameron’s failure to serve the Article 50 notice as promptly as when he said he would. In consequence, I wish never to hear from this government that there is a lack of funds.

  41. ian
    Posted June 20, 2018 at 9:07 am | Permalink

    DO you know how much the contribution will be if the UK stays after 2021, John?

  42. Prigger
    Posted June 20, 2018 at 9:13 am | Permalink

    They refuse to hold a referendum on the abolition of the House of Lords. Here is there response to a huge petition
    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/209433

    “The Government’s response to this petition has changed. This change took place on 19 June 2018.

    This is because the Petitions Committee (the group of MPs who oversee the petitions system) did not think that the Government’s first response was satisfactory, because it did not address directly the petition’s specific request for a referendum on the abolition of the House of Lords.

    The Committee wrote to the Government to ask for a new response which answered the petition more directly.
    You recently signed the petition “Give the electorate a referendum on the abolition of the House of Lords”:
    The Government has produced a new response:

    As stated in our manifesto, comprehensive reform of the House of Lords is not a priority for this parliament.

    Therefore, the Government does not intend to hold a referendum on the abolition of the House of Lords.”
    This means they violate the Will of the People, bigly……., as Trump might say.

  43. MikeP
    Posted June 20, 2018 at 9:16 am | Permalink

    Thanks for the figures, it seems that some of your correspondents don’t understand the nature of our GNI or GDP, otherwise they wouldn’t peddle this myth that (a) we’re going to lose all our EU trade and (b) it’s a huge chunk of our GDP. I confess I don’t have precise figures but understand that 80% of our output is domestic, ie what we buy and sell within the UK, not surprising as we’re a large nation of 60 million consumers. So just 20% of our GDP is our exports and just 40% of that to EU (some say 44% but the Rotterdam effect means some should be subtracted), in other words 8% of the whole. Few if any believe that ALL of this is at risk. Perhaps you could run through these figures too sometime?

  44. Nig l
    Posted June 20, 2018 at 9:38 am | Permalink

    Interesting kite being flown by Charles Grant in the FT about staying in the single market and all that means, no external trade details, being a rule taker, ECJ, migration etc.

    Time for you (and the other Brexiteers) to state your red lines or else all of the comments about no deals etc become BS.

  45. Ian Terrell
    Posted June 20, 2018 at 9:53 am | Permalink

    and £ 12 bn as a % of total government spending is?…..ah debt £41bn, Transport £35bn, Housing £31 bn, Education £102 bn Indutry £23 bn, Health £155 bn, Social Protection £232 bn

    So investing in the car boot sale to make a fortune doesn’t look a bad deal does it unless you are mendacious…..

  46. William Long
    Posted June 20, 2018 at 9:58 am | Permalink

    So why d0es Dr Wollaston, the Chairwoman of the Health select committee, describe the premise that some of the recently announced increase in spending on the NHS will come from savings from leaving the EU, as ‘Tosh’?
    I should have thought it would have been more constructive to welcome the extra expenditure, wherever it was coming from, but insist that her committee will ensure that the money is not wasted, as it almost certainly will be if left to NHS managers.

    • Christopher Hillidge
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 8:33 pm | Permalink

      Sarah Wollaston is a Bachelor of Medicine – not an economist – and she might be
      better employed in caring for patients than pontificating on some parliamentary select committee or other… soon after the next election, she most likely will be…

  47. Alison
    Posted June 20, 2018 at 10:01 am | Permalink

    Super post, thank you. In great haste: Charles Grant in the FT’s columns is apparently saying that Mrs May is considering asking to stay in the Single Market for goods. This is crackers, bonkers and not what we voted for in the referendum. Haven’t had time to read the FT article, but I assume he ignores or fudges the Rotterdam Effect, not to mention failing to net off the indirect damage. Grrrrrrr
    Could we ensure somehow that Mrs May gets our host’s post printed out on the back of her morning Cornflakes packet? So she doesn’t go for Single Market for goods.

  48. ChrisS
    Posted June 20, 2018 at 10:06 am | Permalink

    Now that the UK is leaving, the Commission is planning to end the entire system of rebates. In the FT on 2nd May, Juncker is quoted as defended the plans, saying “the rebates had to disappear. ” “Along with the UK”. He went on to say “The calculation basis for the other rebates will disappear too,”

    They will get their way on this despite opposition from the likes of Germnay and the Netherlands by making it effective after the current crop of politicians are no longer around. They’ll also add in a few of the non-existent sweeteners they used to get Blair to foolishly give up a large element of our rebate negotiated by Mrs Thatcher.

    If we were to ask to rejoin, as Remainers want, we can be sure that they would demand that there be no rebate.

    With their planned increase in the budget, our contribution would then be well over your quoted £25bn pa !

  49. The Truth
    Posted June 20, 2018 at 10:33 am | Permalink

    None.

    We will save no money John

    It’s going to cost us billions for generations which, I assume, is why you, on record, advised people in the City of London to place their cash and assets abroad

    Brexit is a disaster by design

  50. Posted June 20, 2018 at 10:55 am | Permalink

    The so called rebate we don’t actually get to spend the way we would like to.

    It is allocated to whatever the EU wishes to spend it on. Even their own offices and commissioners in the UK.

    Parks and amenities, retired actors union etc.

    So in real terms, we would be saving another 4.7billion euros.

  51. Denis Cooper
    Posted June 20, 2018 at 11:16 am | Permalink

    Off-topic again, on Monday there was a Westminster Hall debate in response to a petition for the abolition of the House of Lords:

    https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2018-06-18/debates/37FAA193-1A7C-4FD9-9F12-3275460784D4/HouseOfLordsAbolition

    I signed that petition, not because abolition would be my preferred option but because it is utterly insufferable to have jumped-up unelected legislators-for-life defying not just the elected chamber but the whole body of citizens who elected that chamber, and the threat that we will shut down their “best club in London” might have some effect.

    In my view it is a distraction to talk about the composition of the Lords, the crucial thing is that however they are composed they should be stripped of their power to delay Bills passed by the Commons.

    In 1911 it was necessary to take away their veto and allow them only a two year period of delay, in 1949 it was seen as necessary to cut that back to just one year, and now they should be finally neutered by cutting the maximum delay available to them to one month for all Bills, as it already is for Money Bills, unless the Commons positively votes to allow them a specified longer period for their consideration of a particular Bill.

  52. Helen Taylor
    Posted June 20, 2018 at 12:02 pm | Permalink

    I think we need to put reverse perspective on this. For all the non believers why don’t you look at the EU figures to see how much extra they are saying they need to make up the shortfall from Brexit. What ever they say is the shortfall from the UK leaving, is obviously what we would have had to fork out to keep their gravy warm

  53. Ron Olden
    Posted June 20, 2018 at 12:12 pm | Permalink

    This is just the tip of the iceberg.

    When consumers and the Public Sector (including the NHS etc) are able to buy things on the global market, instead of having to pay EU tariffs on them, these savings will escalate.

    Neither should we ignore that fact that when we have a more balanced migration policy the migrants we’ll be allowing in will be those who can earn more and therefore pay more tax and claim less ‘in work’ or other benefits.

    A more balanced migration policy will also give us cheaper and better highly skilled people to fill the jobs where there are shortages.

    At the moment we’ve been turning away skilled people who are delighted to come and work here for the wages on offer (or less).

    And we’ve been doing so simply because we’ve been swamped by so many low skilled EU unemployed.

  54. Prigger
    Posted June 20, 2018 at 12:33 pm | Permalink

    Sorry I posted the on yestrday’s blog comments instead of today’s.

    The continued anti-Trump rhetoric was permitted in PM Questions today and not put down by Mr Speaker at the onset who remarkably, is a highly intelligent man nor Mrs May.

    She insisted Trump will visit the UK as scheduled. He should cancel the visit. Treat the UK Parliament as it should be treated, that is with utter contempt. I am British. I would prefer him to visit but quite understand if American people as a whole demand a total ban on British imports and US withdrawal from all defence agreements with the UK.

  55. huev
    Posted June 20, 2018 at 12:57 pm | Permalink

    A few more off-the-books fund payments, of which we will be paying 12% presumably.

    10bn EU military
    6bn for refugees in Turkey.
    EU development fund for Africa etc.
    EU Bank ‘investment.’ Will we see that cash back?
    Borrowed to lend to Eire sums vary from 3.2bn to 7bn.

  56. Ian wragg
    Posted June 20, 2018 at 12:59 pm | Permalink

    So the FT reports that the government wants to stay in the Single Market for goods. That of course rules out any trade agreement s. It also signals the end of the Tory party for a generation. What part of leave don’t you understand.

  57. bigneil
    Posted June 20, 2018 at 1:05 pm | Permalink

    It would be nice to know what staying in would cost. Inevitably our financial contributions would go up and up, while our effectiveness in the EU would be made less and less. Now with one of the Swedish parties asking for a referendum on their continuing membership after realising their contributions would go up when we ( supposedly ) stop handing the EU billions.

  58. Dh
    Posted June 20, 2018 at 1:10 pm | Permalink

    The contributions to the EU budget are dwarfed by the stuff they never discuss… the overseas aid budget is TWICE that of the EU, the cost of subsidising British banks is TEN times that amount … and interest servicing the national debt is FIFTEEN times that. All of those were due to colossal economic mismanagement by the British political system. So blame them for the mess not the EU

  59. PaulW
    Posted June 20, 2018 at 1:36 pm | Permalink

    The way things are going we are not going to get any kind of a bespoke type of deal that government seems to be looking for..the EU are never going to compromise their four basic freedoms for mrs mays red lines..therefore we will leave with no deal and fall back on trading by WTO rules..we should be preparing for that now instead of arguing amongst ourselves over ‘meaningful’..all will become clearer next week at the EU Council summitand we should leave speculation of the arithmetic about all of this to the future because to tell the truth nobody has a clue, not one iota, about how all of this is going to play out.

  60. Helen Smith
    Posted June 20, 2018 at 1:52 pm | Permalink

    I voted Leave because I wanted to stop subsidising the EU, to regain our fishing waters, regain control over immigration, regain control over our law makers and because I strongly believe we will be better outside of EU rules and regs.

    No deal hold no terrors for me, I suspect the main reason many MPs oppose it is because they know we will do so well they will look bad for keeping us in the EU all these years.

  61. MickN
    Posted June 20, 2018 at 2:33 pm | Permalink

    So it sees that the rebels have backed down. This was achieved by Mrs May giving the final say to the speaker – the man with so little respect for our democracy that he has a “B*ll*cks to Brexit ” sticker on his car. I am 30 miles from Parliament s the crow flies but I can smell the stench from here and it is making me wretch. What does it feel like to be a boiling frog?

    • MickN
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 3:09 pm | Permalink

      I’m sorry John. I should not have a pop at you as you must be as frustrated and seething as a lot of us out here. I am getting near to the point where I think the only way forward on this is to take to the streets. I will be there when the time comes.

  62. hefner
    Posted June 20, 2018 at 2:37 pm | Permalink

    Are you a policy professional? If yes, hurry up, you have till 26/06/2018 to apply for the new Civil Service position of
    Head of Aviation EU Exit Negotiations, Grade 6, £62,519-70,859 depending on previous experience. Anybody interested?

    And I guess you might be supported I your tasks by the RHM for Wokingham who had told us there would be no problem whatsoever with air transport.

    • Edward2
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 6:30 pm | Permalink

      It is just the Civil Service empire building.
      One minute they complain about terrible budget pressures, next they invent new non jobs.

    • Richard
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 6:35 pm | Permalink

      On the Montreal-based world regulatory bodies IATA & ICAO: http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/02/24/restoring-our-fish-and-farms/#comment-920955

      Lufthansa reportedly has £1bn+ of Heathrow landing slots at risk if no Air Deal.

      Ryan Air is expanding at Southend, Wizz is expanding at Luton, EZJ has obtained an EU operators licence.

      And evidence given 16:52 onwards that it’s in EU interests to do an Air Deal (although planes would still fly anyway). https://parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/558a1399-6328-4d06-b1fa-c19e50801a6c

    • Kitchen Cabinet
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 7:20 pm | Permalink

      Remoaners will not accept results. They are still are “debating” whether the British won against Germany in 1914-1918. No doubt they echo German arguments, the clock is ticking, our exports to the Kaiser accounts for 200,000 million jobs in Birmingham alone”

    • stred
      Posted June 21, 2018 at 12:01 pm | Permalink

      £70k pa to say ” Can we have the same conditions as we have now, please? If you don’t want to we will arrange to impound EU aircraft in the UK and ban overflying of UK airspace. Shall we need to inform the various tourist boards?”

      There should be lots of applicants.

  63. M.W.Browne
    Posted June 20, 2018 at 2:39 pm | Permalink

    We could receive a similar rebate if we abolished overseas aid.

    • ChrisS
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 6:23 pm | Permalink

      And cut Scotland, Wales and NI loose.

      All of a sudden England would be at least £42bn pa better off and no Irish border problem.

    • Richard
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 7:07 pm | Permalink

      If like Canada, Australia & NZ the UK contributed the OECD median of 0.27%, that would save £8.6Bn (=£14-5.4Bn). And still be higher than USA, Japan, S Korea. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_development_aid_country_donors

      Add that to the Brexit dividend and Mrs May’s £20Bn to the NHS becomes funded.

  64. ji
    Posted June 20, 2018 at 2:50 pm | Permalink

    Cut the foreign aid budget.

    • NickC
      Posted June 20, 2018 at 6:26 pm | Permalink

      Ji, Indeed, close down DfID entirely and give some (£2bn?) shared between the FCO and the armed forces to cope with emergency relief only.

  65. lojolondon
    Posted June 20, 2018 at 4:35 pm | Permalink

    John, I know these are hard to quantify now, but these are going to be very big :

    What about all the tariffs we collect and send to the EU, that we can now collect for ourselves?
    What about the taxes we can now collect from Microsoft, IBM, HP, Amazon, Starbucks, etc. which all currently pay tax in other EU tax havens like Ireland and Lichtenstein, etc. but will now have to pay tax locally?
    What about going from importing £2Bn of fish each year to exporting £3Bn?
    What about buying commodities, especially food and drink from Australia, New Zealand, Argentia, Chili, California, South Africa, India and Canada without any tariffs?
    The UK is ahead of the ‘free trade’ curve, we are headed for some very good times and there is a load of good news on the way!!

    • KZB
      Posted June 21, 2018 at 12:56 pm | Permalink

      Then again we have apparently agreed with the WTO to retain the EU tariff list after Brexit. To me this is daft and not what we were promised.

  66. Iain Gill
    Posted June 20, 2018 at 5:31 pm | Permalink

    Hunt apologies for more death and misery… And yet still plans to hand more money over to the shambles of an organisation that did it

    Staggering

  67. Freeborn John
    Posted June 20, 2018 at 9:30 pm | Permalink

    A historic day with the passing of the EU Withdrawal bill. But This only marks the optimum moment to replace May and install a new leader with the competence to deliver a clean brexit. The longer she stays the worse the deal she will cave in to.

  68. margaret howard
    Posted June 20, 2018 at 9:55 pm | Permalink

    Whether it is £3billion a year in subsidies for British farmers, scrapping exorbitant roaming fees, or ensuring London remains the financial centre of the EU – the British representatives have for decades used Brussels to get what is best for Britain. It’s not by staying in but by leaving that we’ll be handing all that power to our European neighbours.

    According to a speech by CBI director-general John Cridland EU membership is worth £3,000 to every UK household. BBC 3/11/13

    • Edward2
      Posted June 21, 2018 at 7:11 am | Permalink

      The govt have said that our farming industry will still get subsidies paid to them direct.
      So little change there.
      Roaming charge reductions was caused by the phone companies trade body agreeing the uniformity of charges.
      Yes national government via the EU helped but it was coming anyway.
      London will always be a world financial capital. They trade worldwide including Europe and this will continue.
      PS I wouldn’t believe the CBI figures if I were you
      Their elite group of a few hundred multi nationals love the protectionist bloc that is the EU
      Wrong on the ERM Wrong on the Euro and fanatically remain supporters.

  69. KZB
    Posted June 21, 2018 at 12:49 pm | Permalink

    We never hear anything about off-the-books spending on EU schemes.

    Apparently we are paying towards “Accession Countries” (including Turkey !) and most of this is not included in the EU budget. Another is the EU Army, again off-the-books spending.

    I bet this all adds up to several billion a year extra to the advertised spending, which we never get to hear about.

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