Let’s spend the EU exit tax on ourselves instead – that’s a £39bn boost to us all

Here’s a paradox. Ask the UK Treasury for money for schools or social care or defence and they say there isn’t any. Ask the Treasury for more money for the EU, and they say how much would the EU like?

Here’s a popular policy. The PM should tell the Treasury that the £39 billion they say we can afford to give to the EU should be spent at home instead. Let’s leave in March 2019 with no leaving present to Mr Juncker and his friends.

With £39bn to spend we could

Increase the NHS spend as planned – as long as we control what the money goes on and secure more quality and capacity with it

Sort out social care, offering £2bn a year more for that

Strengthen our armed forces

Increase schools spending

Give everyone a Brexit  bonus by cutting Income Tax rates

Give business a boost by cutting business rates

Collect more revenue by cutting CGT and Stamp duty rates which are too high

The reason the UK economy is growing more slowly than the US is they have supportive tax cuts and spending boosts, and helpful authorities who are promoting growth.

I wonder why the Uk Treasury rejects that model? And why does it only have money for the EU, which we are meant to be leaving?

If we left on WTO terms we would also have the £13bn of new tariff revenue. That should also be given back to us as tax cuts.

Spending the £39 bn at home means we can have tax cuts, domestic spending increases and less state borrowing. Why doesn’t the Treasury demand this?

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320 Comments

  1. Mick
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 5:41 am | Permalink

    We should tell the Eu to go whistle for it they had there chance and have repeatedly blew it, Mrs May would do well to remember the first time she was in Brussels and all these Eurocrats giving her the cold shoulder, and I hope she stick to her guns about not having a People’s vote or any other kind of vote , we all know this would just be a ploy by the Eu loving muppets to thwart Brexit and keep us in the dreaded Eu

    • Hope
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 9:48 am | Permalink

      JR,

      You do not have to convince us by rehearsed arguments to rebut your lying Govt. Trade was not and is not the central theme to leaving. Remainer May has taken ‘personal control’, as is her dictatorial manner, and is clearly using trade and the Irish border as a scare tactic and has planned this in an underhand way for a very long time. Your failure and those other leave MPs and ministers is failing to act quicker against her. It is difficult to understand how slow and what Davis was thinking! You should have ousted her before the last election and put a leaver in office.

      Please read Martin Howe’s briefing paper No1 in Lawyers for Britain about ECJ application to the UK. Mays white paper will have huge economic, social and political disadvantages for our country. As he states it is alarming that May has broken her promises and then repeatedly claimed she has not.he claims sophistry at best. I think with all other factors and speeches from her she is lying. Look at the facts from the article and draw your own opinion. it is worth while to promote before Mays string of scare stories hit the public.

      Considering this is her opening for negotiation it is a truly shocking capitulation to make our country a vassal state in so many policy areas with a non regression clause forcing our country to comply with policy issues even if it is not in or national interest. Once more, it is like a Boas grip on our nation ever tightening with no chance of escape.

      Note to May: We voted leave, you promised to deliver several times. Have the honour and decency to act on what you said or resign for selling out our country and lie to the public to achieve your aim. You actions are a disgrace to the nation.

    • NickC
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 2:29 pm | Permalink

      Mick, As I predicted on here, the EU has not rejected Theresa May’s WP proposals. The EU has done what it always does: any concessions are banked immediately, and further concessions are sought. That’s what has happened to the Dec 2017 Withdrawal “agreement” and it is happening to the WP too. Any hope you have that Mrs May will tell the “EU to go whistle” is the triumph of hope over experience.

    • Richard
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 3:03 pm | Permalink

      And the final cost could be far higher: https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/5581747/theresa-may-barnier-hide-90billion-brexit-bill/ –”‘total possible liabilities of £90 billion”.
      For example if HMT are wrong that: (i) ‘contingent liabilities’ will never fall due, (ii) to assume “a greater proportion of reste à liquider (RAL) wish-list decommitments than the EU usually assumes” (source: HOC Library report)

      The £39Bn estimate also excludes areas defined as outside the EU Budget eg
      a) “European Peace Fund” http://facts4eu.org/news_jun2_2018.shtml#epf
      b) “European Development Fund” http://http://facts4eu.org/news_apr_2017.shtml#eu_to_demand_billions_from_uk_in_foreign_aid_part_1

      • Mitchel
        Posted August 1, 2018 at 9:12 am | Permalink

        It’s a bit like the BP oil spill compensation fiasco in the USA.

    • Richard
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 3:09 pm | Permalink

      Page 25 of this well known report makes clear that there is not even a moral obligation to pay the divorce bill: : http://www.lawyersforbritain.org/files/the-withdrawal-of-the-uk-from-the-eu–analysis-of-potential-financial-liabilities.pdf “Mr Cameron’s Bloomberg speech in which he announced an In-Out referendum on membership was given in January 2013, whereas the current MFF and ORD run from the beginning of 2014 and were negotiated and agreed during 2014. So all the Member States knew when the ORD and MFF were agreed that it was all dependent on the UK voting to stay in the EU in the referendum.”

      There is also no moral reason why the UK is not receiving:
      a) its share of EU assets (Galilleo, EU buildings etc),
      b) the UK rebate for the final year, or
      c) retained prior year profits at the EDB.

    • Richard
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 4:16 pm | Permalink

      http://www.politeia.co.uk/a-40bn-boost-for-the-uk-economy-by-sheila-lawlor-2/
      An analysis by the economist David B. Smith looked at the UK Treasury’s options and calculated that £40bn kept here and not paid to the EU could:
      – cause a real terms boost to UK GDP (up to 1.4%), UK household consumption (up to 3.5%), UK private investment (up to 3.6%); a 0.8% lower unemployment rate and lower public sector borrowing.

    • Hope
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 5:31 pm | Permalink

      Here is another paradox. Tory Leave MPs know that May has ratted on the country and them in an underhand way to betray leaving the EU.

      They could trigger a leadership contest and have over 40 MPs to do so, but they would not be confident there would be sufficient numbers for her not to be voted back in and could not challenge her leadership for a year. Therefore do they try to use their voting power to thwart most of remaining in or change her aims to remain in as best they can or accept if she calls an election the Tories would be booted out?

      I have an answer, exercise courage, call the leadership contest and the publicand Tory associations will support you overwhelmingly to get rid of her that your party would not dare to put her back in charge. The alternative is May will keep the U.K. In the EU by another name and your party will be toast forever. In which case you have a lose lose situation by keeping her in office as it will increase her confidence she can do whatever she likes.

      There is a double play in motion at the moment where May is encouraging Labour to vote against a no deal keeping the UK in the EU- claiming it is a Labour plan, the alternative being to accept her a Chequers sell out. Again, the answer is to get rid of this underhand untrustworthy toxic person.

      • Chris
        Posted July 31, 2018 at 9:52 pm | Permalink

        Absolutely right, again, Hope.

  2. Nig l
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 5:42 am | Permalink

    Absolutely correct. But you tell us. You have the access.

  3. Peter Wood
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 5:44 am | Permalink

    Yes, totally agree…. however, to make this come true, FIRST:

    1) Remove Mrs. May from government
    2) Remove all Remainers from cabinet
    3) Put the nation on full preparedness for WTO terms of trade
    .

    I’m sure other contributors will add more!

    • Lifelogic
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 7:57 am | Permalink

      The problem is more than half of the Tory MPs are lefty, dithering, Brexit means sweet FA lefties just like Theresa May and Philip Hammond. They might just replace her with yet another EUphile dope in the Heath, Major, Cameron, May mode. They cannot agree on the direction so T May alas remains at the wheel of of the bus (as Tebbit puts it) making the appalling prospect of a crash & a Corbyn/Mc Donnall government more likely by the day.

      • Bob
        Posted July 31, 2018 at 8:31 am | Permalink

        @lifelogic

        “half of the Tory MPs are lefty, dithering, Brexit means sweet FA lefties just like Theresa May and Philip Hammond”

        The BBC has coined a new term to describe those that support Mrs May’s BRINO plan.

        “Pragmatic Leavers”

        • Lifelogic
          Posted July 31, 2018 at 3:33 pm | Permalink

          And Lord Mandelson says that – Brexiteers are nationalists who hate foreigners, not patriots like me.

          In the Telegraph today. So that is about 60-70% of the population then.

        • A mccormack
          Posted July 31, 2018 at 3:58 pm | Permalink

          Pratmatic is the word. Im very pedantic about spelling.

          • A mccormack
            Posted July 31, 2018 at 4:00 pm | Permalink

            Of course that is what the remainers think.

      • Hope
        Posted July 31, 2018 at 9:53 am | Permalink

        If the UK remains in the EU it matters not who is in office they will be under the control of the EU. Corbyn’s plans are not allowed under the EU rules. The EU might have given him assurances to change his party’s stance to remaining, betraying the British public and against its manifesto and voting in parliament, but the EU will not be legally bound by an invitation/suggestion to him to gain his change of mind. Corbyn would be an idiot to think otherwise. It would be better for him and his party to leave the EU and then he could fulfil his extreme left lifetime dream.

        • Mitchel
          Posted July 31, 2018 at 5:03 pm | Permalink

          Worry not!Just keep a red flag in your wardrobe,unfurl it every 1st May,go out onto the streets with the comrades and chant until hoarse:

          “MARX! ENGELS! LENIN! STALIN! CORBYN!

          Your bread ration will be secure for the next year……probably.However,I fear Lifelogic may have already irrevocably earned enemy of the people status,so off to the East Anglian turnip kolkhoz with him!

  4. eeyore
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 5:46 am | Permalink

    I suspect the public have their own two red lines: get back our fishing, and no £39bn bung for nothing to the EU. Politicians who think they’ll get away with either face a nasty shock.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 8:00 am | Permalink

      May’s government has no intention at all of doing anything positive on our fishing waters and will pay the bung (using our money of course and making the UK less competitive as a direct result).

    • NickC
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 3:03 pm | Permalink

      Eeyore, I wonder when a concerned Leave supporter will take the government to court? The 2015 EU Referendum Act provided for two outcomes only: to Remain in the EU on the terms negotiated by David Cameron; or to Leave the EU altogether. Quite clearly neither the Dec 2017 Withdrawal “agreement”, nor the May/Robbins WP result in the outcome we voted for – Leave – in any meaningful sense of the word.

    • Tad Davison
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 8:49 pm | Permalink

      Yes, May will cave-in but give them a damned good finger wagging!

      Tad

  5. Ian wragg
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 5:48 am | Permalink

    The betrayal continues. Robins has agreed that the ECJ will police the withdrawal agreement and be the final arbiter on EU citizens rights.
    They will decide what benefits are payable etc.
    This is not taking back control.

    • Jagman84
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 7:50 am | Permalink

      Robbins should not have authority to agree anything. We need to take back control from the civil service before we can make any headway. If they provide a service at all, it certainly isn’t for our benefit.

      • Lifelogic
        Posted July 31, 2018 at 9:24 am | Permalink

        The problem with civil servants (just like EU bureaucrats) it that are very good at protecting the interest of bureaucrats. They are in the regulation industry after all. The industry of inconveniencing, licencing, fining, regulating and taxing the productive while looking after their own interest and fiefdoms.

        Robbins is private school, Oxford PPE and then straight in to the Civil Service. Did he ever have so much as a paper round job or one at Woolworths in the private sector one wonders? They govern for the 20% state sector who essentially parasite off the 80%. May & Hammond alas trust Civil Servants – this as they are clearly not bright enough to think for themselves an question their agenda.

        • Richard1
          Posted July 31, 2018 at 4:24 pm | Permalink

          Let’s be fair to the guy he’s probably doing his professional best to execute the orders he’s been given. We need to look to ministers and specifically to Mrs May to set the policy. We can’t blame the civil service!

          • Woody
            Posted July 31, 2018 at 7:20 pm | Permalink

            You assume that he takes his orders from the politicians .. I can assure you he will take his orders from whoever is most likely to promote him .. and that’s his civil service boss.

          • Jagman84
            Posted July 31, 2018 at 10:42 pm | Permalink

            The issue is who is giving him his orders? The unelected seem to be at both sides of the negotiating table. Maybe this is what Lord Mandelson meant about the post-democratic age?

    • Fedupsoutherner
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 10:52 am | Permalink

      Ian, I hope this is a joke! Words fail me. We have become a tin pot nation.

      • Mitchel
        Posted July 31, 2018 at 1:32 pm | Permalink

        The venerable Sir Peregrine Worsthorne(still alive I believe) marked as the day “Britain ceased to be a serious country”the takeover of the (London) Evening Standard by the Russians(2009?).

        Mind you,he had also heralded the emergence of David Cameron as “the return of the English gentleman.”

      • Ian wragg
        Posted July 31, 2018 at 1:33 pm | Permalink

        No joke. Ask John.

    • NickC
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 3:09 pm | Permalink

      Ian Wragg, True. This is the way the EU operates and our civil service have either gone native, or they haven’t learnt even after 46 years. The EU banks all concessions then demands more. JR’s theory that “nothing is agreed until everything is agreed” is not how the EU works. The EU always agrees concessions – and the other party must never “backslide” on those.

  6. Helena
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 6:00 am | Permalink

    The 39 billion is the sum that covers the UK’s existing liabilities. It is not a leaving present. The UK government has agreed to pay, already last December. You are here misrepresenting the position, and advocating that the UK break its promises. Your irresponsibility is shameful

    Reply Not true . It was a promise to pay for another 21 months in the EU in return for a Future Partnership Deal which we think is worthwhile. No such deal is forthcoming so lets just leave.

    • Know-Dice
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 7:21 am | Permalink

      Helena, I believe that £39 Billion shows the true cost of “free trade”, not so free is it. And that doesn’t even take in to account the trade deficit with have with the EU.

      All we are liable for is our ongoing subscription until we actually leave, which with Weak & Wobbly could be some time never…

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 7:24 am | Permalink

      “The UK government has agreed to pay, already last December.”

      Helena, you conveniently forget what your EU chums always say:

      “Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed”.

      http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2017/04/29/euco-brexit-guidelines/

      “2. Negotiations under Article 50 TEU will be conducted in transparency and as a single package. In accordance with the principle that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed, individual items cannot be settled separately.”

      Your dishonesty is disgusting but quite typical of EU supporters.

      • Turboterrier.
        Posted July 31, 2018 at 4:10 pm | Permalink

        Denis Cooper

        Second that Denis.

        The way they are ramping up project fear Mk 3 ably supported by the BBC and all the other media is as you say totally disgusting.

        Treating the electorate with absolute contempt.

      • Hope
        Posted July 31, 2018 at 5:41 pm | Permalink

        I accept your view Dennis, but it is proposed the Withdraw Agreement will be signed off and put in Treaty before any trade deal is agreed. The EU are eager for this to happen.

        The Withdraw Agreement as it stands is a trap to keep the U.K. in the EU, will be arbitrated by the ECJ, by the alleged and overblown non problem Irish border backstop. Therefore the nothing is agreed until everything agreed is not going to take place. The Withdraw Agreement MUST at all costs be voted down. Raab appeared to me to have lost Leave of his senses when presenting Robbins’ Withdraw agreement bill on the last day of parliament. I am s

    • Dave Andrews
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 7:52 am | Permalink

      The UK’s existing liability to the EU is its dues until the date we leave. There is no provision in any of the treaties for further payments after that date.
      I acknowledge the UK has participated in EU budget agreements, in which case we can agree to contribute to committed projects in return for a share of the benefits when they are completed.
      What we certainly should not be doing is contributing to EU programmes, the object of which is to build up EU industry at the expense of our own. We must not sponsor the EU’s anti-UK agenda.

    • A.Sedgwick
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 8:35 am | Permalink

      The UK has shares in many assets in the EU e.g. many colossal buildings and the EU should be paying us as in any divorce assets are apportioned. If we pay this £39b in any circumstances the lunatics will have taken over.

      • Turboterrier.
        Posted July 31, 2018 at 4:18 pm | Permalink

        A Sedgwick.

        lunatics will have taken over.

        Too late they already have, sadly it is us on the outside that can see it.

        For their part they have not got a clue they really do believe in what they are doing and saying. Their incompetence knows no bounds.

        • Jagman84
          Posted July 31, 2018 at 10:48 pm | Permalink

          That’ll be their Socialist roots in action! They never learn from their mistakes because they will never admit to any faults in their ideology.

    • Fedupsoutherner
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 10:53 am | Permalink

      Helena, do your homework

    • GregH
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 12:17 pm | Permalink

      The 39B’n will have to be paid as part of the divorce settlement agreed in December..it has nothing to do with the future or any future transition period or deal. If we renege on this then first thing we can expect is the channel ports will be closed..next thing the air space closed and then next all financial and insurance business severed..need I go on..if you continue in talking about the legal or not legal way then we’re in the wrong groove..this is purely business..political business..but serious business overarching everything else

      • Original Richard
        Posted July 31, 2018 at 8:29 pm | Permalink

        “If we renege on this then first thing we can expect is the channel ports will be closed..next thing the air space closed and then next all financial and insurance business severed..need I go on….”

        So a total blockade then ?

        Will the EU be airlifting its nationals out of the UK or will they also suffer the consequences?

        Fortunately we did not make the mistake of joining the Euro so we will still have the potential to buy emergency food and medical supplies from non-EU countries.

        • PrezleB
          Posted August 1, 2018 at 6:51 pm | Permalink

          EU and UK nationals will be swopped as per Red Cross

      • Tad Davison
        Posted July 31, 2018 at 9:14 pm | Permalink

        Wot? No German cars entering the UK nor EU agricultural produce because the EU has shut down the ports? No more massive UK trade deficits with the EU? No more foreign aircraft flying over UK airspace – some of the busiest in the world? EU businesses deprived of some of the best banking services in the world? Oh My God, whatever will we do!

        I think their businesses might have something to say about that. Need I go on?

        (You’ve been watching too much BBC scaremongering I fear).

      • Geoffrey Bastin
        Posted August 1, 2018 at 7:50 am | Permalink

        I can tell you have no idea about how to negotiate with the EU. It was the EU that said nothing is agreed until everything is agreed and judging by the way things are going we will be leaving without a deal or will become a vassal state.
        The ports, airports and financial services cannot be stopped as it would be an act of war. You have been listening to the Cameron/Osborne fear stories again. In any case why should the trade and livelihoods of millions be interrupted by a bunch of useless politicians because they haven’t got the common sense to find agreement.

    • zorro
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 12:54 pm | Permalink

      Have you got skin in the game Helena 😉? You are very keen to ensure the EU gets the taxpayers’ money aren’t you?

      zorro

    • NickC
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 3:27 pm | Permalink

      Helena, The UK’s requirement to pay for our liabilities already agreed, is enshrined in the Vienna Convention. We agreed the MFF with the EU, and it runs until end of Dec 2020. Assuming we leave end of March 2019 (we won’t, in practice) then we owe only what the EU loses by us leaving before 2021.

      That amounts to 21 months of our net contribution, or about £18bn. Nowhere near £39bn. Then the EU owes the UK for its liabilities to us. The final balance is probably around zero. So the £39bn is indeed a bribe for trade. Which is illegal under the Bribery Act 2010 and the 1997 OECD anti-bribery Convention.

    • Treacle
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 6:31 pm | Permalink

      Helena, I found this on the BBC website (you can google it). The House of Lords found that we do not have to pay the EU anything at all. Nor should we. Some of us feel that we should have stopped giving them our money decades ago.

      “An in-depth report on this debate, issued by the House of Lords, acknowledges that there are “competing interpretations” on what the UK should pay, but it reaches the conclusion that, because the European treaties do not say anything on the matter, there would be no enforceable obligation to make the UK pay any financial contribution at all.”

    • acorn
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 6:34 pm | Permalink

      Helena, it is worth having a read of the detail of the settlement that has already been set out and agreed between the EU and the UK. https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Exiting-the-EU-The-financial-settlement.pdf

      You will see the title of Part one is: “Why the government agreed the financial settlement.” Ignore the clueless comments on this site.

  7. formula57
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 6:00 am | Permalink

    And another paradox arises: suggest such a sensible, worthwhile, “putting Britain first” approach as you have and this government, that is supposed to adopt such policies, will have nothing to do with it.

  8. oldtimer
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 6:04 am | Permalink

    Hammond and Treasury officials are opposed to Brexit so they will not promote any real or potential benefits. Along with May and other Remainers they support what amounts to a coup d’etat from within the state to frustrate Brexit – both the referendum result and the parliamentary votes to implement it. Many Conservative MPs appear to support this course of action.

    This is dangerous territory for the Conservative party. If the efforts to frustrate Brexit were to succeed then there would likely be two consequences. Many Leavers would join a new movement to implement Brexit. Corbyn would use it as justification for his own brand of revolution arguing, correctly, that the people’s will had been denied by a privileged, self serving elite. The political system, as we know it, would be discredited and be seen to have failed. The Conservative party, and especially its MPs, are rapidly running out of time to make a choice – abide by the referendum result or travel the road to chaos and potential oblivion.

    • oldtimer
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 6:12 am | Permalink

      Since posting this, I read Paul Goodman’s report that a Conservative Home poll reveals that 45% of Conservative party members want May to resign now. Their instincts are surely correct.

      • Ian wragg
        Posted July 31, 2018 at 7:25 am | Permalink

        And probably 90% of the country .
        Politicians are playing a very dangerous game which will result in the decimation of the 3 legacy parties into extreme right and left-wing parties rising like Phoenix from the ashes.

        • Nicholas Murphy
          Posted July 31, 2018 at 4:17 pm | Permalink

          An ‘Alternative for Britain’ would gather a lot of support right now – some at the expense of UKIP and some from the Conservatives.

      • Henry Spark
        Posted July 31, 2018 at 7:40 am | Permalink

        You think a new leader would be able to persuade the EU to let the Uk have its cake and eat it? No way. The problem here is not Mrs May. The problem here is that the case for Brexit was built on a pack of lies about us holding all the cards, the US, Australia etc desparate to do trade deals with us, money for NHS, etc. Fantasy! Time for a 2nd referendum now we know the truth of it

        • Know-Dice
          Posted July 31, 2018 at 8:10 am | Permalink

          Ah, the classic EU trick – keep on voting till they [the EU] get the right answer…

          Regardless of what the luvies in main stream media maintain, the reality is people are just saying “get on with it”….

        • alan jutson
          Posted July 31, 2018 at 8:35 am | Permalink

          Henry

          Have you read the Five Presidents report ?

          That is the way the EU will go in the future.

          Afraid Remain as it is, is not an option even for those currently in the EU.

          • Lifelogic
            Posted July 31, 2018 at 3:46 pm | Permalink

            Indeed who on earth would want to remain in an EU such as they envisage.

          • hans christian ivers
            Posted July 31, 2018 at 5:49 pm | Permalink

            this is really a load of unsubstantiated nonsense of the EU is more than 60% just to give you an example

        • libertarian
          Posted July 31, 2018 at 8:42 am | Permalink

          Dear Henry Spark

          As each day goes past ultra remainers prove that its the remain camp that are thick and ignorant.

          Already 60% of UK export trade is conducted under WTO rules. The EU’s BIGGEST customer the USA trades with the EU under WTO rules

          German car manufacturers are the biggest losers from us walking away estimated it will cost them $14 billion per year

          You obviously never watch the news, The Australian Foreign Minister said in a statement last week that they are ready to sign a FTA with the UK the moment we leave. You missed the UK government announcement about increased ( £20 billion) spending on the NHS ?

          You do indeed live in a fantasy world.

          • hans christian ivers
            Posted July 31, 2018 at 5:50 pm | Permalink

            unnecessary and far too personalised attack you should really know much better and you usually do as well

          • libertarian
            Posted July 31, 2018 at 6:32 pm | Permalink

            hans

            Any thought on you know, the actual facts presented? No thought not. Still waiting for your list too, having trouble thinking up 5 reasons to be in the EU. Try 3 then, dont want to over tax you

        • Caterpillar
          Posted July 31, 2018 at 8:56 am | Permalink

          Henry Spark,

          What is this EU termed cake and eat it? A clean Brexit is simply restoration of the freedom and clear accountability to make our own decisions. That is it, ‘no pack of lies’. The possibility afterwards of a free trade deal with the EU is/should be a separate issue. The need for so much negotiation, hence use of such emotive terminology (cake, divorce, cards to play, etc.), is created. This is the narrative with less ‘truth’. Negotiating to achieve no change (as both, so called, sides are appearing to do) but with alternatively documented agreements is the less honest path. The lost clean Brexit in which actual rather than paper changes are made was the more honest, democratic and ultimately accountability producing path.

          Remainers have already won (only paperwork will have changed), a second referendum cannot restore democracy. A second vote to leave would again be ignored, a vote to remain would demonstrate that narrative can guide the electorate to the ‘desired’ result, lower turnout would confirm disenchantment in the democratic process. Arguing about different economic predictions is neither here nor there, the loss of democracy, whether to avoid accountability or due to vested interests is the issue. Remain has won and democracy has lost.

        • oldtimer
          Posted July 31, 2018 at 10:28 am | Permalink

          No I do not think that. As JR has pointed out the choices are revert to WTO or negotiate FTA (probably too late now because of the time wasted by May chasing up her blind alley).

        • Jagman84
          Posted July 31, 2018 at 11:45 am | Permalink

          The danger for the EU is that post-Brexit, we may find a new supplier of cake that will not come with a host of oppressive regulations. Losing your prime customer is not a good business model. It shows that the EU is all about power and control and not a free trading club.

          • rose
            Posted July 31, 2018 at 2:48 pm | Permalink

            Yes, they bent all the rules to hang on to Greece and yet we were not worth tempting to stay.

        • Turboterrier.
          Posted July 31, 2018 at 4:36 pm | Permalink

          Henry Spark.

          It will not happen and the reason it will not is simple. ITALY

          The financial experts and media are all holding their breath. For weeks commentators across the international markets are all coming to the same conclusion regarding the Italian debt crisis. The euro zone is on the cliff edge and that in its self is crumbling. Every financial institution will be affected it will be a wipe-out. But the heads of the EU are going around doing nothing just hoping it will go away whilst they try to destroy the will of the British people.

        • Geoffrey Bastin
          Posted August 1, 2018 at 7:57 am | Permalink

          If your ideas about a pack of lies were true why are the Tories still arguing about how to leave after two years.
          It’s because we have a PM, Chancellor and Foreign Secretary that are all Remainers and have no intention of Leaving.
          They are the fifth columnists that are betraying us and you are too vague to see it.
          Leaving the EU is simple and straightforward and is only complicated by giving the job to those who have no interest in delivering the democratic decision of June 2016.

      • Chris
        Posted July 31, 2018 at 9:54 am | Permalink

        …and the majority of the true grassroots conservatives are apparently not on Conshome as they have been weeded out. Thus, if this is effectively a poll of left of centre Conservatives then the results are even more significant.

        • Iain Gill
          Posted July 31, 2018 at 3:56 pm | Permalink

          Yep con home does ban people from the comments section for simply asking for policies in the manifesto.

          • Tad Davison
            Posted July 31, 2018 at 10:04 pm | Permalink

            What’s that telling us Iain?

            So much for a democratic party run by the grass roots. The party big-wigs only want the plebs to lick the stamps and post the leaflets. Have a say on the party’s direction or the way it is run??? Ha!

            Perish the thought!!!

            Tad

          • Iain Gill
            Posted August 1, 2018 at 6:33 pm | Permalink

            they really didnt like pro brexit views on the run up to the referendum…

  9. Bob Dixon
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 6:05 am | Permalink

    Happy days.

  10. Peter VAN LEEUWEN
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 6:09 am | Permalink

    £39bn as a one time soother may seem attractive, but will soon pale in comparison to the annual £40bn damage to the UK economy that the BOE, the OECD and other institutes report to already being done to the post referendum pre-Brexit UK economy. Are Brexiteer believers becoming like the three monkeys? A disorderly withdraw may not turn out to be the plain sailing that Brexiteers foretell their followers.

    Reply Brexit has done no damage to the UK economy – not like the ERM and the Euro crisis which did grave damage

    • Know-Dice
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 7:23 am | Permalink

      PvL, some simple maths will show you that any sensible person would soon realise that that is not the reality….

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 7:34 am | Permalink

      JR, why isn’t the government rebutting any of this stream of rubbish?

      Rather than tolerating it, and actually generating more of it at public expense.

      • alan jutson
        Posted July 31, 2018 at 8:36 am | Permalink

        Dennis

        “Why is the Government not rebutting this stream of Ruibbish’

        Because at heart Mrs May is a Remainer.

      • libertarian
        Posted July 31, 2018 at 8:47 am | Permalink

        Denis

        Because its all part of the remain narrative. They feed this to the naive trolls who then go all over social media repeating stuff like food and drug shortages etc. All lies all totally fake BUT the government, the establishment and most of the media are happy to go along as its building the “case” to say we can’t leave.

        What mystifies me is that not one single politician has seen the opportunity staring them in the face to reinvent the political landscape in this country. They are all like the proverbial frog in a pan of boiling water .

        17.4 million people voted to leave, the largest mandate in UK political history , yet everyone has ignored the opportunity to start a Brexit Party and carry it through

        • graham1946
          Posted July 31, 2018 at 2:28 pm | Permalink

          We had (and still do, just) a Brexit Party. The problem is that FPTP doesn’t allow room for new parties. UKIP got 4 million votes, far more than the Greens, SNP etc. but ended up with nothing. With this corrupt system it is almost impossible. The only hope after May has sold us out is for a big public backlash and a resurgence of UKIP. They are currently recruiting new members already. They could potentially kill the Tories stone dead if 17.4 million Brexit voters turned to UKIP in anger.

      • Chris
        Posted July 31, 2018 at 9:57 am | Permalink

        Reported in the press this morning: Mrs May has now apparently advised publicly that Labour, through some arcane process, could actually delay Brexit. More help to the Remainers in addition to all the scare stories?

      • Peter VAN LEEUWEN
        Posted July 31, 2018 at 11:17 am | Permalink

        @Denis Cooper: If it is all rubbish, should we then say than a looming Brexit has NO adverse effect on the UK economy?
        In that case, interesting that some continental countries do pick up business from the UK, so this really must be a win-win development???

        The Netherlands is only a small player in this field and with its 20% cap on bonusses not the most attractive those businesses which still promise a 200% bonus as (perverse) financial incentive for their employees. Still, the Netherlands has already been chosen for relocations of (parts of ) businesses from the UK – post referendum:
        Unilever, The European Medicines Agency, Heathrow holding company (Ferrovial), Cboe Global Markets (largest stock exchange company in Europe), London Stock Exchange Group, Tradeweb, MarketAxess, NXGN.L, CME.O, MUFG (Japan’s biggest bank).
        All this benefiting both the continent AND the UK???
        I’m really not trying to rub salt in any wounds but the statement that the referendum has adverse effects on the UK economy is not so far-fetched.

        • Denis Cooper
          Posted July 31, 2018 at 1:41 pm | Permalink

          The Netherlands, your country, can do as it pleases, but your unwanted officious interference in our affairs has already reduced the number of potential UK customers for its products by two …

        • NickC
          Posted July 31, 2018 at 4:34 pm | Permalink

          PvL, On balance, Leave will be financially beneficial. And, especially, Leave will be democratically beneficial. Of course there will be minor economic benefits because of Brexit, and minor losses too. Minor in the context of the overall UK economy, that is. It is the balance, and over many years too – a decade at a minimum – that matters.

          The EU is, relatively, not an integrated economy so it makes our leaving easier for both sides. It is much harder for an integrated economy to split up. That makes Brexit more difficult for Eire due to higher Eire – UK integration. About 40% of Eire exports of food and drink go to the UK and about 80% of Eire road hauled exports to the EU go through the UK. The EU may think it’s being clever, but you are doing no favours to Eire by egging on the lunatic in charge.

          • Peter VAN LEEUWEN
            Posted August 1, 2018 at 7:41 am | Permalink

            @NickC: I DO have more concern about Ireland than the UK or the Netherlands, and I hope that sufficient solidarity will be shown to it from the continent. Some investment in cargo shipping lines (container vessels) to go from Ireland directly to France, Belgium and Holland has already been done and if they are clever enough they can export much of their produce to the continent. Through the decades I have experienced the Irish as quite entrepreneurial and international! They were among the first to benefit from the disappearance of the Iron curtain. I met them everywhere!
            The one thing I don’t understand is, while we have customs and checks between different parts of the Kingdom of the Netherlands, what is so difficult about avoid a land border in Ireland by using the only pragmatic solution – more checks at Belfast seaport and airport.

    • Ian wragg
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 7:34 am | Permalink

      Those erstwhile institutions who didn’t see the crash of 08.
      The same institutions that called for us to join the Euro.
      Dream on you silly person.

      • Turboterrier.
        Posted July 31, 2018 at 4:43 pm | Permalink

        Ian Wragg

        If Italy goes down it will make the 08 crash seem like the mad hatters tea party.

        I think PVL will then have to remove his rose tinted glasses and see the real world

      • hans christian ivers
        Posted July 31, 2018 at 5:50 pm | Permalink

        Ian

        behave yourself

    • Henry Spark
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 7:41 am | Permalink

      No damage? Investment and growth in the Uk are at historical lows. No one believes a word of the Brexit fantasy

      Reply We are still firmly in the EU so the slower growth has nothing to do with Brexit and everything to do with the fiscal and monetary tightening I have predicted and described to you

      • libertarian
        Posted July 31, 2018 at 8:57 am | Permalink

        Henry Spark

        Oh dear oh dear

        Our trade deficit narrowed by £12.8bn as UK goods and services exports grew to £625.9bn in the year to Jan 2018 @ONS figures released this month show.

        From the Depart International Trade

        In 2018 the UK remains the TOP destination in Europe and THIRD in the World for foreign direct investment

        You are clueless Henry, just making up scare stories

      • Tad Davison
        Posted July 31, 2018 at 8:59 am | Permalink

        Reply to reply:

        Glad to see you make that point and blow these foolish remain people out of the water yet again. We leavers know where the fault with slower growth lies, it’s with the poor judgement of the occupant of No 11 Downing Street and the evidence is well documented.

        It used to be said that Theresa May wanted rid of the arch-remainer Hammond, but I have never been convinced of that, even when she made her much welcomed Lancaster House speech. She said all the right things in that speech, but I urged caution back then, and I was right to do so for it smacked of treachery. Having hapless Hammond as Chancellor serves her purpose.

        We don’t give May enough credibility. She is as good as any political con-artist that I have ever seen. She is dangerous and has that almost impossible super-human ability to simultaneously look one in the eye whilst stabbing them in the back. She is the linchpin. Get rid of her and the house of cards that is the remain part of the parliamentary Conservative Party will fall, and the country can then breathe a big sigh of relief and get on with leaving the EU without any more delay and obfuscation.

        Tad

      • Denis Cooper
        Posted July 31, 2018 at 1:56 pm | Permalink

        UK growth is at a historic low? What, you mean even lower than when it was negative during the last recession? How stupid can you get?

        As it happens I read that the latest statistic for growth in the eurozone was a bit lower than expected as so I looked up this chart:

        https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/gdp-growth-annual

        and set it for the past ten years, and then compared it with this chart of UK growth over the same ten years:

        https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-growth-annual

        and I can see that the most recent peak in the UK growth rate was in late 2014, over 3%, and since then it has trended down both before and after the 2016 referendum, but it now seems close to its bottom; while on the other hand the eurozone growth rate peaked later, towards the end of 2017, and is still declining, and I guess the two may cross over the next year.

        And as for the lowest UK growth rate during that period, that would be -6% in early 2009, not the + 1.2% in the second quarter of this year.

      • hans christian ivers
        Posted July 31, 2018 at 8:12 pm | Permalink

        JR..

        If you know about economics you would know it is all about expectations, anticipations and confidence so suggesting it ahs nothing to do with Brexit is just a lot of nonsense from you personally and you should know better

    • Peter VAN LEEUWEN
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 8:06 am | Permalink

      Reply to reply: Brexit is still a future event and for the economic damage done post-referendum you do find yourself in a very small minority. No use arguing about it, I’ll just side with the overwhelming majority of economic analysis on this.

      Reply You are wrong and no sensible economist can find a quantified adverse Brexit effect

      • NickC
        Posted July 31, 2018 at 3:45 pm | Permalink

        PvL, If you were right every country on the planet would be clamouring to join the EU. Instead many of the existing EU members are actually significantly impoverished by the EU/EZ, many Europeans are distinctly unhappy about the EU, and many new anti-EU parties have sprung up. Pull the other one, it has bells on.

        • hans christian ivers
          Posted July 31, 2018 at 8:14 pm | Permalink

          NIck C

          You have had false bells on from the beginning because you are generally badly informed

          • mancunius
            Posted August 3, 2018 at 10:45 pm | Permalink

            Ah, you don’t like being reminded.

            AfD now 17% support in Germany – and that I would bet is a wildly understated figure.

            Ukip support more than doubled since Chequers.

            Lega and 5-star sweeping the board in Italy, with big support for the Italian government’s tough stance on the NGO-facilitated economic migrants from Libya.

            The FN received 33.9% of the votes in the French presidential election.

            Ant-centralist Euroscepticism is inexorably on the march.

    • Sir Joe Soap
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 8:10 am | Permalink

      The minute net migration from the EU goes below zero in our free-for-all immigration system is the minute I’ll believe the EU is a more attractive destination for your countrymen than is the UK. Until then regard yourself as talking baloney.

    • Mockbeggar
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 8:34 am | Permalink

      According to an article in the Sunday Times this week by Tim Shipman and Mark Hookham, last Christmas the then Brexit minister commissioned work on how much it would cost the other 27 countries in lost trade. ‘ “Robbins simply refused to raise it,” said one source. “It found that the cost to the EU in the event of no deal was far greater than the cost to the UK, but the cost to no single country was greater than to us.”
      Since when was the will of the majority of voters able to be overturned by a single Civil Servant? And can we see a full copy of this report,please?

    • Anonymous
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 9:53 am | Permalink

      There are some things we are prohibited from including in ‘damage to our economy’ by the EU (and there has been so much that 52% voted to quit.)

      Everything EU good.

      Everything Brexit bad.

      Write out one hundred times.

    • MikeP
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 11:06 am | Permalink

      I understand that France’s Q2 GDP growth is 0.2% compared to the UK’s expected result of at least 0.4%. What damage ?

    • Anonymous
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 1:19 pm | Permalink

      In answer to the link you made between Brexit voters and climate change deniers.

      Both the EU and the climate lobby seem to advocate for socialism as solutions to most things, replete with a privileged and hypocritical elite.

      • Anonymous
        Posted July 31, 2018 at 1:19 pm | Permalink

        That was in answer to PvL.

    • Psephologist
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 5:01 pm | Permalink

      Why is the PVV doing so well in the Netherlands?

    • Original Richard
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 8:09 pm | Permalink

      Whatever damage the EU can do to us outside the EU is nothing compared to the damage they can wreak upon us when we are inside the EU and subject to their directives, rules and regulations decided either by unelected bureaucrats or by QMV.

    • Lindsay McDougall
      Posted August 2, 2018 at 12:52 am | Permalink

      Jacob Rees-Mogg and Patrick Minford reckon that there will be a huge Brexit dividend. It does, though, depend on a complete divorce from the European Commission, the ECJ and the EU-27 as a collective. We would negotiate free trade deals with individual countries, including any EU-27 Member States willing to break ranks.

      Remember, free trade does not require acts of government, merely the absence of government.

      • Richard Clark
        Posted August 4, 2018 at 8:07 pm | Permalink

        Oh you very silly person. A clean break as advocated by clowns like Rees Mogg would mean we would be the only developed naion with no trade deals. Trade deals take many years to negotiate. How would you replicate the loss of over 40 trade deals in any reasonable period, considering that the UK lacks competent experienced trade negotiators? Grow up!

  11. Fedupsoutherner
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 6:15 am | Permalink

    They simply don’t want to leave and see the EU as Lord and Master which is exactly how Merkel and co like it. We need that money at home and its disgraceful its bring given away for others to spend. It really does amount to treason. The way the EU is behaving towards us shows they don’t give a damn about us so why don’t we reciprocate those feelings. We are bring led by complete morons.

    • Tad Davison
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 9:22 am | Permalink

      What is the difference between Theresa May and Max Bygraves?

      Max Bygraves used to like people to sing along. Theresa May just likes gullible people she can string along.

      The mark of a good con-artist, is when the victim doesn’t even know they have been had. Prominent Brexiteers within the Tory party (save but an exceptional few) even now say they have faith in Mrs May and that she will get us out of the EU.

      That is in spite of revealing her hand and true intent with the Chequers statement. How much more evidence do they need before they lose this person and get a REAL Brexiteer leader instead?

      She is letting the country down. She is slowly but surely stopping Brexit, and they are unwittingly assisting her in that process. Time to get real and see her for what she is.

      Tad

      • Hope
        Posted July 31, 2018 at 1:13 pm | Permalink

        Lawyers for Britain, article one, by Martin Howe QC. It provides a brilliant analysis of the rot May has spoken about her White paper. It is clear the ECJ would have supremacy over our country if we left on these stupid terms. It would have an effect on our economy and ability to make trade deals. Any minister who says otherwise is a liar. Read and reach your own conclusion.

      • Lifelogic
        Posted July 31, 2018 at 3:53 pm | Permalink

        Theresa May, on the eve of the royal wedding, nominated nine new Tory peers. Only one was a leaver. May like Cameron can only be judged by her actions. Perhaps she thought having about 4 to 1 remainers in the Lords was just insufficiently pro remain? The BBC after all is more like 20:1.

  12. lifelogic
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 6:17 am | Permalink

    You wonder why the UK Treasury rejects that model.

    Well Hammond is an economic illiterate who even taxes profits that are not being made. Which is hardly likely to be sustainable for long before you kill the golden goose. The idiotic bank lending restrictions through government regulation and lack of much real competition in banking causes further massive damage and deters many business from expanding. As does his attacks on the Non Doms, private pensions, landlords and tenants, people who die, the prudent, the hard working and the wealthy and his increases in IHT and ratting on the IHT £1M each promise. Many of these people then leave the country or do not come here. Taking their investments and jobs with them.

    Yet he chooses to fund totally absurd things like HS2, endless green crap, fecklessness, biofuel importation, the dysfunctional unreformed NHS and Hinckley C. A rather typical, innumerate PPE graduate with zero understanding of real economics, science, business, engineering, logic or reason. Almost as much of a dire robotic electoral liability as T May herself.

    He, May and the Treasury are clearly trying to kill Brexit at every turn, so it suits them to harm the economy in this way for political ends. Plus issue all the project fear propaganda. It is economic vandalism. We have over taxation, over regulation, absurdly complex and idiotic taxation, endless waste in government and appalling public services too. Well done Hammond.

    I see that the state sector also take three more sick days PA than the private sector too. Some state employees that I knew thought is was part of the deal to take their X paid sick days each year as it was know that up to X days PA no action was ever taken. Fridays and were always very popular for this.

    • Old person
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 9:30 am | Permalink

      It is obvious to anyone that the EU without major reform will not last another decade.

      The punitive actions of the EU like those against Greece will not be tolerated by other Southern European countries.

      A brave face is shown by the EU in front of the cameras, but behind the scenes they will seek to punish us.

      Remember the BSE crisis? Our farmers culled whole herds and suffered severe movement restrictions. When the UK was declared (by the EU) free of BSE, did the EU member countries all import our beef again? Did we receive compensation for refusal to trade?

      Remember all the chaos at French ports due to all the strikes? Was compensation ever paid?

      And what does our government do now to distract us from thinking about Brexit? It touts the idea of starving vulnerable people to death without needing a legal ruling. At least this will solve the NHS bed-blocking problem and the lack of affordable care home places. I can just see the Office of the Public Guardian and NHS Administrators having a meeting so no one individual can be held accountable for a patient’s death. Forget ethics, just maximise the cost savings and potential IHT.

  13. Sakara Gold
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 6:19 am | Permalink

    John, its a good idea – but i’m not sure Mr Hammond has actually printed the £39bn yet so he will probably find a reason not to, if we actually crash out

  14. ChrisS
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 6:20 am | Permalink

    Why doesn’t the Treasury demand this?

    Because they are overwhelmingly die-hard Remainers !

  15. Posted July 31, 2018 at 6:23 am | Permalink

    Mr Redwood, there isn’t going to be a bonus.

    If – big if – the hard Brexit comes to pass, then believe me there is going to be a big bonus for IEA, Legatum and Shanker Singham.
    All the rest of us are going to have to live as we were in the 1950s, probably with the Labour government of Mr Corbyn too.
    Muy buenas, as they say in Venezuela.

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 7:37 am | Permalink

      You’re asking a lot with your “… believe me …”.

    • Anonymous
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 9:56 am | Permalink

      We’re not going back to the 50s.

      Even the poorest on the planet have smart phones and micro fibres.

    • forthurst
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 11:58 am | Permalink

      I can’t talk about the 50s but in the 70s, in the City, brokers were still blocking tickets, at the brokerage responsible for the issuance of gilts, clerks sat on high stools posting journals in a ledger book with quill pens; in wholesalers, invoices were typed on typewriters with the extensions calculated on comptometers from typewritten price lists: stock records were manually maintained. Freight forwarders typed their bills of lading; manifests were produced likewise. By the late 70s, these businesses were transformed by basic computer systems which over the years since have been replaced by far more sophisticated systems as the real price of hardware has plummeted with the widespread use of microcomputers.

      People who know nothing about business administration need to temper their utterances appropriately. Changing the way we do business with the EU will not involve the purchase of thousands of typewriters and the hiring of thousands of clerks; it will involve using the same systems as currently used for external trade: that is it.

    • NickC
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 4:42 pm | Permalink

      Mike Stallard, You provide no facts to back up your assertion that “there isn’t going to be a bonus”. Not even an argument. Most of the planet is not in the EU, and has no intention of being so either. QED.

  16. Gary C
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 6:24 am | Permalink

    JR,

    “I wonder why the Uk Treasury rejects that model? And why does it only have money for the EU, which we are meant to be leaving?”

    You can add the vast majority of the 14billion spent on foreign aid to that question as well, unfortunately they find it easy to give away the money squeezed from the hard working taxpayer.

    Question, Why use the word ‘meant’ whats happened to ‘are’?

    • bigneil
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 12:50 pm | Permalink

      Gary C . . ” why does it only have money for the EU, ” – -simple – -none of those throwing money away are in anyway in need of money themselves. The taxes come from the poorer end of the pile so the effect isn’t felt by the top end. They don’t care – -a clearer case of “I’m all right Jack” there couldn’t be. The hordes of 3rds worlders arriving won’t be put living among those throwing away other people’s taxes, there would be uproar if there was.

  17. Old Albion
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 6:26 am | Permalink

    ” Why doesn’t the Treasury demand this? ”

    Because the vast body of politicians and their Mandarins in the UK are Remainiacs. They regret giving the Plebs a voice and are doing all they can too keep us in the EU.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 9:27 am | Permalink

      Exactly. But the Plebs are right as usual and they are wrong.

  18. DUNCAN
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 6:32 am | Permalink

    The real question for all Tory MPs is simple

    May or the EU?

    Which is it John?

    The fact that this non-Tory is still our leader and therefore the PM of the UK is enough evidence to confirm my own suspicions that you John and indeed all your colleagues are colluding to maintain the status quo

    If Tory MPs really wanted us a PM to adhere to the result of the EU referendum then May would be replaced because she’s no intentions of taking the UK out of the EU either formally or informally

    We expect treachery from Labour, it is what they are. To see it from the Tories as well is beyond belief and utterly soul destroying

    Your crocodile tears are deeply embarrassing

    • Know-Dice
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 8:12 am | Permalink

      Unfortunately Duncan with May at the helm it looks like “Chequers or Remain” 🙁

      • bigneil
        Posted July 31, 2018 at 12:52 pm | Permalink

        To me it looks like plenty of Cheques AND Remain.

    • forthurst
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 9:14 am | Permalink

      The Tory Party has been a Europhile party since the time of Macmillan; if you haven’t understood that, that is your error, not the that of ‘your’ party. It is the Eurosceptics that belong to a party within a party, not the other way round. They are allowed to remain in the party in order to give it a veneer of Euroscepticism to hoodwink dupes into voting for it rather than a genuine Eurosceptic party.

      • Jagman84
        Posted July 31, 2018 at 11:55 am | Permalink

        Indeed. Cameron tried to silence the dissidents by calling the referendum, as he assumed that a Remain vote was a given. Fortunately, the electorate thought otherwise. That’s why preparation for such an outcome was not even contemplated.

    • Tad Davison
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 10:00 am | Permalink

      Duncan,

      I hear what you say about Labour and know it to be true, but we can’t be too starry-eyed about the Tories. I had decent, honest Tory MPs telling me about the shenanigans of the Heath-ites from decades ago, so the duplicity and treachery was just as evident then as it is now.

      What I fail to grasp, is how dishonest duplicitous people ever got to be Members of Parliament in the first place. Less than camera-shy people who see the position merely as a stepping stone to money, fame, and fortune. As a stage and a way of self-advancement, not as a way to make people’s lives better. Only when they have been elected do the public get to see what they’re really like, by which time it is too late, but what about the local party chairmen and the people who select candidates?

      If and when we ever get out of the EU, the remain MPs will still be in the House of Commons sniping from the side lines ostensibly against declared government policy. Maybe therefore, we need to take a look at the whole selection process to ensure in future, we only get the very best people with the highest integrity whose loyalty to the United Kingdom and its people is beyond question.

      Tad

      • Turboterrier.
        Posted July 31, 2018 at 5:01 pm | Permalink

        Tad Davison.

        Maybe therefore, we need to take a look at the whole selection process.

        Totally correct.

        All the political parties really need to reinvent themselves and come into the 21st century. The same could be said for the civil service.

        It amazes me that the Clarkes, Soubry, Grieves and the Robbins of this world are still in post. In reality the same could be said for the PM and her Chancellor.

    • Fedupsoutherner
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 11:01 am | Permalink

      Duncan. I have to agree with you on this. This has been the most important democratic vote of our lifetime and May and her useless mandarins are blatantly ignoring it. Why aren’t politicians like you John with your views and a fair sense of play getting rid of May? I think you underestimate the anger out here.

      • NickC
        Posted July 31, 2018 at 5:09 pm | Permalink

        Fedupsoutherner, I suspect the eurosceptic Conservatives have been out-gunned and out-played. They’ve let the May/Robbins WP slide through; the EU has now banked the concessions in it (no “backsliding” now); and further concessions will ensue. And the time for ousting May will never be right. Then we’ll get a second referendum where one option will be the WP+, or Remain in fact.

  19. zorro
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 6:33 am | Permalink

    From my experience, it really does not surprise me that they are the beating HEART of remainerism – hopelessly wrong with their Project Fear forecasts, and continuing too undermine our economic success with their policies.

    Do you know what we need JR? A great big stake and we need to know where to put it!

    zorro

  20. Sebastian Weetabix
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 6:42 am | Permalink

    Your party is a walking corpse, Mr Redwood. It is led by someone who appears, to all intents and purposes, to be a socially awkward duplicitous schemer who is intent on subverting our democracy. It is as plain as the nose on my face that she will take the vassal status Barnier offers and will pay whatever they ask. She will also lock us in forever with her non-regression clauses. Her announcements that ECJ oversight will end are simply a lie. As long there is a “common rule book” (another lie, it is the EU rule book) the ECJ will decide. She must think the public are stupid. And yet the parliamentary party does not remove her.

    Expect oblivion at the next election as at least 52% of the electorate walk away.

    • Sir Joe Soap
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 8:20 am | Permalink

      As Lord Owen says, May is creating an extremely dangerous situation, where the Brexit cities (to start with) realise they’ve been duped. These people also know, or will come to realise, that Corbyn won’t solve all their problems. They see these stemming from mass immigration, corporate/big bank greed and a failure to stop crime and terrorism.

      A UKIP-like party will be the safe answer, but if that doesn’t take off, then authoritarianism is all that is left for these folk.

      • Mitchel
        Posted July 31, 2018 at 1:15 pm | Permalink

        Good interview with Lord Owen in the Telegraph yesterday;he’s become much more likeable in his old age!

        • libertarian
          Posted July 31, 2018 at 6:42 pm | Permalink

          Mitchel

          His old party the SDP is still around and they are a Leave party

      • Lifelogic
        Posted July 31, 2018 at 3:57 pm | Permalink

        The only hope is that the sound wing of the Tories capture the party, get a sensible leader and kick the lefty, big state remainer dopes out on their ears.

    • Anonymous
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 9:58 am | Permalink

      It is so obvious that it’s embarassingly insulting.

    • NickC
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 5:14 pm | Permalink

      Sebastian, Yes, it’s so obvious I am completely bewildered as to why the Tory party activists and eurosceptic MPs don’t do something about Mrs May. Unless of course it’s deliberate. Nothing will be done until UKIP is consistently high the polls again. Fortunately UKIP is heading that way.

  21. acorn
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 6:47 am | Permalink

    The Financial Times reported, “The UK will still have to honour a British “divorce bill” of up to £39bn even if it crashes out of the EU without a trade deal, the head of the National Audit Office said.

    Appearing before the House of Commons Treasury select committee on Tuesday, Sir Amyas Morse said the payments would be required “no matter what, under international law”.

    Last year Britain reached a deal on its EU exit terms, which committed the UK to honouring outstanding EU liabilities when they fall due over coming decades. The agreement contains no figures, but during the talks the UK estimated its net payment would be between £35bn and £39bn.”

    Who should we believe?

    Reply Me. Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. There is no legal requirement to pay anything after March 2019 unless we reach a general Agreement and sign up to pay them more.

    • Know-Dice
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 7:29 am | Permalink

      If we are going to honour ongoing EU commitments then we need ongoing access to those assets.

      Who would pay for something then just walk away?

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 7:54 am | Permalink

      I remember David Davis boasting that one of his younger officials had gone through a supposed claim from the EU line by line and torn it to shreds … oh, but that was last August, presumably before Therolly resolved to make our EU exit look as painful as possible so that we will change our minds in that second referendum we will definitely not be having until the position has “evolved” enough for us to have it and reverse the result of the first one in fine old eurofederalist style.

      From August 31st 2017:

      https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/08/31/brexit-bulldog-david-davis-hold-frosty-press-conference-eu-chief/

      “EU Brexit negotiators were left “flabbergasted” on Wednesday after their British counterparts launched a legal deconstruction of the so-called “Brexit bill” yesterday as the Brussels talks headed for an increasingly acrimonious impasse.

      “EU taxpayers should not pay at 27 for obligations undertaken by 28 it would not be fair,” said Mr Barnier.

      “In July, the UK recognised it has obligations beyond the Brexit date but this week the UK explained it felt its obligation were limited to the last payment of the current EU Budget.”

      Laughable, the bloke was talking about “fair” … the last obligatory payments would be for the period up to our leaving date, not the end of the budget period; anything beyond that would be goodwill payments, and as there is clearly no goodwill on the part of the EU there should be no such payments.

      • Sir Joe Soap
        Posted July 31, 2018 at 8:26 am | Permalink

        Interesting to note New Zealand’s attitude to quotas for their exports, which apparently we have agreed to split with the EU in proportion to something or the other. NZ doesn’t like it and thinks the EU should stick to their full EU quota for the EU after Brexit, which is logical in view of the fact that the EU made that agreement with NZ regardless of the constituent nations of the EU. We could then make our own deals with NZ, which will clearly be hampered if we “already” have an EU-agreed quota coming this way.

      • Tad Davison
        Posted July 31, 2018 at 10:15 am | Permalink

        You read the situation well my esteemed friend.

        Tad

    • George
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 11:25 am | Permalink

      Reply to reply..you should get legal advice on this..a slogan like ‘nothing is agreed unless everything is agreed’ is too simplistic..if we refuse to acknowledge our debts and commitments already made then what standing will we have in the face of prospective new partners..what about our honour or the honour of Britain and the empire that once was..you talk nonsense sir..the money was for departure..was agreed in December..and pne way or another will have to be paid..sooner or later

      Reply Not true. It was money for a transition period and a deal.

      • KeithL
        Posted July 31, 2018 at 3:37 pm | Permalink

        reply to reply..Don’t be daft- who is going to pay 39 billion for a transition deal and a deal- complete bunkum- the money owing is because our past association

      • NickC
        Posted July 31, 2018 at 5:21 pm | Permalink

        George, “… the honour of … the empire that once was …”. What are you talking about? There is no British Empire.

    • George
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 11:41 am | Permalink

      This is not about legal requirements it is about obligations and honouring our debts..that’s if we don’t want to lose our place and standing in the world as an honest dealer…we were part of EU for 45 years..we now want to walk away..we owe

      • mancunius
        Posted July 31, 2018 at 12:26 pm | Permalink

        ‘/any one of a thousand aliases.’

      • Sir Joe Soap
        Posted July 31, 2018 at 2:47 pm | Permalink

        Point to the legal text showing that we owe. There is none. This is a payment known as “ex-gratia”. That is all. It is our money and it is ours to give or not to give. I hope this is straightforward enough for you.

      • zorro
        Posted July 31, 2018 at 5:11 pm | Permalink

        WE OWE??? Prove it! We have paid hundreds of billions over what we have received during our membership. It really makes my skin crawl to think that there are people who think that ‘we owe’…. Is it any wonder that the EU takes and never concedes anything? The EU, whilst encouraging you, holds ‘useful idiots’ like you in contempt!

        zorro

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 3:05 pm | Permalink

      Sir Amyas Morse should check page 62 in this Lords committee report:

      https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201617/ldselect/ldeucom/125/125.pdf

    • NickC
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 5:42 pm | Permalink

      Acorn, It is a fact in international law (principally the Vienna Convention) that any country can abrogate a treaty. In the case of the UK leaving the EU, we must abide by the EU treaties until we have left them; and we must honour all obligations that we have undertaken whilst subject to those treaties. (Btw, that’s why the “agreement” to allow respective nationals to stay was pure theatre).

      There is an argument as to whether the MFF is an intention or a commitment. I believe it as argument we would lose, so I have always accepted that our MFF obligations must be honoured (21 months at c£10bn/yr = c£18bn, not £39bn). Then the EU has financial obligations to the UK. The balance I expect would be around zero. So you are technically correct, but your detractors are practically correct.

      Then there is the mantra: “Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed” so beloved of JR, and the EU. The reality is the EU banks concessions, even conditional concessions, and then asks for more. And we walk right into it. It must be in the psychology of the people of the EU and of the UK. Can you seriously see Mrs May (or even Barnier, Corbyn, Hunt, etc) agreeing to the mantra? No, neither can I.

  22. Stephen Priest
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 6:50 am | Permalink

    The question is: would Phillip Hammond and Theresa May want Brexit to look this good?

    BBC Holiday Project Fear falls flat this morning:

    The reporter could not find one British tourist who was worried about the following scare stories he was peddling:

    1. You might need to pay €7 for a visa.
    (answer from tourist: if you have to pay more you have to pay more – you always have to pay more anyway )

    2. You may no longer have the E111 health insurance card
    (answer from tourist: you will just have to make sure you have holiday medical insurance )

    3. Roaming may no longer be free
    (answer from tourist: I’ll just have to be careful how I used my phone )

    • Nicholas Murphy
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 7:48 am | Permalink

      I heard that! The tourist had more resoluteness than May shows.

      Will the EU charge us for visas? I’d wager that they won’t – and that they will treat us like, for example, Aussies. But if they do, should we retaliate? I think we should be focused purely on the balance of payments effects when we examine our options. And that probably means we should encourage tourism by NOT levying a retaliatory visa fee. Instead, retaliate in other ways. Sending back the Irish traveller ‘community’ would be a vote winner.

      • Sir Joe Soap
        Posted July 31, 2018 at 8:33 am | Permalink

        Yes clearly we can be cleverer than charging a flat fee. Many countries have a tax de sejour… we need a tourist tax per night which UK residents don’t pay.

  23. Leslie Singleton
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 6:51 am | Permalink

    Dear John–I am with you 100% but it doesn’t work simply to ignore the other side of the argument–The answer to your question is that the hot bed of Remainers in the Treasury take the view that Everything, absolutely everything, is as nothing compared with Market access

    • Anonymous
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 10:03 am | Permalink

      And that is wrong.

      I don’t have to lodge the supermarket workforce in my house if I want to buy from (or sell to) Tesco.

      • bigneil
        Posted July 31, 2018 at 1:02 pm | Permalink

        At least two of the staff at my local supermarket are over pension age. I have spoke to them both and they both said that they HAD to find work to pay their bills. Both are British born and bred. THEY have to work, the so-called refugees and freeloaders don’t. As Louis Armstrong sang . . . “What a wonderful world “. . . . for them.

  24. Mark B
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 6:53 am | Permalink

    Good morning

    I would like to know what we reasonably owe the EU and what for ? Whatever we owe we should pay as I believe we are an honourable people even if they are not. After that, and unless we sign up to things that are mutually beneficial we no loss of sovereignty, we should pay them no more.

    I believe that cutting taxes is a Good thing but, removing needless EU regulation that most business’s have to comply with whether or not they sell to the EU or not. As we all know, most EU regulation is used to stiffle competition and that competition drives down costs, creates jobs, increases quality and is the father of invention.

    Reply We owe them nothing after March 29 2019 if we leave without a Withdrawal Agreement, as we are entitled to do.

    • old salt
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 8:30 am | Permalink

      What happens about our share of the EIB, Euro Investment Fund, EU Strategic Investment Fund, EU Bank Reconstruction & Development Property Portfolio etc.etc. How many billions does this amount to exactly or are we going to forfeit the lot for nowt? Is it equivalent to the oft quoted 39bn or ten times or even more than that?

      Reply Just as we owe them nothing after we leave, so they owe us nothing from the accumulated assets. We certainly don’t stand responsible for any accumulated debts after we have left.

    • a-tracy
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 8:31 am | Permalink

      John, if you are correct that “we owe them nothing after March 29 2019 why is this “Sir Amyas Morse said the payments would be required “no matter what, under international law”. going unchallenged?

      Was it challenged by the Treasury Select Committee or accepted and minuted as true?

      Don’t our media and politicians on these committees ever challenge anything anymore are we just to be subsumed in Love Island nonsense and whether Kim Kardashian has had her hair cut and lost weight, and just accept statements from civil servants without question (which often seem to be later changed with no fanfare) it’s just pathetic I stopped my paid subscription to news last year, it’s hard to know what to believe anymore especially with news sites you used to trust like the BBC and C4 whose fact checks are been proved wrong recently.

  25. George Brooks
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 6:59 am | Permalink

    Because Hammond is blocking it as he wants to STOP Brexit altogether. I am sure he is actively supporting and promoting Ollie Robins and the PM is swallowing it hook line and sinker.

    He needs to be ignored or replaced so we can get on and get a deal

    • Chris
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 12:54 pm | Permalink

      Hook, line and sinker…you are implying that Theresa May is being duped. I do not believe that for one minute. In my mind, she has proved herself to have been deceitful and duplicitous and scheming. I believe that she is very much on board with Olly and Hammond.

      • Stred
        Posted August 1, 2018 at 8:59 pm | Permalink

        It is possible to be thick and I league with Robbins and Hammond at the same time.

        • Stred
          Posted August 1, 2018 at 9:01 pm | Permalink

          in league… smart phone alteration.

  26. alan jutson
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 7:00 am | Permalink

    Perhaps someone should ask exactly what you suggest at Prime Ministers Question Time.

    You do not need to convince many out here John, its the inhabitants who work in the wonderful Bubble of Westminster Palace who need to be convinced.

    Perhaps they fear being held responsible for their decisions, if they can no longer blame the EU.

    Reply I have often put this simple point to the PM and Ministers and will continue to do so.

    • Know-Dice
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 8:15 am | Permalink

      “Reply I have often put this simple point to the PM and Ministers and will continue to do so. “

      And what was the answer?

      Reply They preferred their Chequers approach which has now of course been rejected by the EU as I predicted

      • Chris
        Posted July 31, 2018 at 12:57 pm | Permalink

        Reply to reply: Mr Redwood, I fear greatly that the initial “refusal” is part of the charade, and that they will accept it with some more concessions. Theresa May, after all, apparently got approval from Merkel first, and she is really the one in power (at the moment).

    • alan jutson
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 8:40 am | Permalink

      Reply-reply

      Have you ever got a sensible answer.?

  27. Dr GP
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 7:05 am | Permalink

    The flip side is that if you give my money, other people’s money to the EU without our consent, we will quite rightly blame you and take it out on you at the ballot box.

    Consent matters.

    Remember, you have voted for all finance bills.

    You cannot now claim you were not in favour.

  28. Dr GP
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 7:07 am | Permalink

    If we left on WTO terms we would also have the £13bn of new tariff revenue. That should also be given back to us as tax cuts.
    =============

    By US you mean you as MPs.

    The tariffs will come out of the public’s pocket.

    Where’s the benefit to the public?

    It’s a loss.

    Not only will we have to pay the tariffs, you and the state will cream off a cut.

    Then the money will not go to those who pay the tariffs, you will use it as a bribe to pay others, your preferred voters.

    • bigneil
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 1:07 pm | Permalink

      Any money the govt gets will be diverted into building new houses and all relevant infrastructure for new arrivals.

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 3:08 pm | Permalink

      Where do you think the EU’s tariffs go now?

  29. Richard1
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 7:13 am | Permalink

    It’s incredible how weak our Govt has been in these negotiations. The latest we hear is Mrs May has ‘clarified’ that when she meant we want mutual recognition for financial services – which is the way all trade arrangements should be going – she actually meant she accepts the EUs jurisdiction, and London will be like any other third country such as Singapore or New York, and can be cut off at a moments notice. If that’s the position there is no point having regulatory alignment on goods and foodstuffs, we’d be better off independent! I know all these civil servants such as mr Robbins are meant to be ardent Remainers, but surely they can see that these negotiation tactics are just absurd?!

    • Nicholas Murphy
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 7:51 am | Permalink

      May’s weakness as a negotiator should prompt us to question if she is mentally robust enough to be trusted with the nuclear deterrent.

      • Chris
        Posted July 31, 2018 at 10:01 am | Permalink

        I believe she was chosen precisely for that quality – easily manipulated, and putty in the hands of Remainer mandarins?

      • Anonymous
        Posted July 31, 2018 at 10:05 am | Permalink

        Trump actually controls our nuclear deterrent.

        • Nicholas Murphy
          Posted July 31, 2018 at 3:39 pm | Permalink

          Wrong. Our deterrent has always been ‘operationally independent’ of Uncle Sam.

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 8:01 am | Permalink

      Do they care? Does Theresa May care? I doubt that she will stand at the next election, like all of them she will find some cushy number after her political career.

      • Sir Joe Soap
        Posted July 31, 2018 at 2:50 pm | Permalink

        Following Cameron, through the same door.

      • Nicholas Murphy
        Posted July 31, 2018 at 3:43 pm | Permalink

        Do we know enough about May to say that? On the one hand, a ‘legacy’ of having delivered Brino (or Brexit) might be enough to sate her power-lust. Or perhaps she feels that she will be viewed as a Heath-level failure if she doesn’t fight and win an election. I’m not sure which is the case – and I won’t be buying her memoirs to find out. I suspect that she won’t bother job-hunting when she leaves No 10.

      • Richard1
        Posted July 31, 2018 at 4:31 pm | Permalink

        To be fair to her I think she has a high sense of duty. But she is woefully inadequate for the task.

        • Denis Cooper
          Posted August 1, 2018 at 4:58 pm | Permalink

          I would now question that.

    • Posted July 31, 2018 at 3:01 pm | Permalink

      A weak hand or a weak negotiator. It is institutionally impossible to achieve an agreed result (= deal) that would make the UK and EU happy. The UK will never (internally) agree on a result that the EU can (internally again) accept. A child could have seen that. It is in or out and no amount of negotiation will change that. Unfortunately, no UK prime minister wants to be responsible for the” out”.

      • Yvybybgh
        Posted July 31, 2018 at 7:28 pm | Permalink

        A majority of the British electorate have decided to leave the EU. It doesn’t matter what the PM thinks, it is her job to implement our wishes. This is çalled democracy, EU trolls like you need to mind your own business.

      • Richard1
        Posted July 31, 2018 at 7:51 pm | Permalink

        Yes you might be right although that does indicate the dysfunctionality of the EU. It is plainly in the mutual interest of the EU and the U.K. to come to a comprehensive FTA, given that we start with complete alignment and zero tariffs.

      • NickC
        Posted July 31, 2018 at 8:37 pm | Permalink

        Rein, By voting for the Leave outcome we voted for independence. I believe that is what the government is legally obliged to deliver. Politicians no longer have a say in the outcome because they delegated the decision to us.

        Then it is a matter of agreeing a trade deal (only) with the EU. Or not. But the putative trade deal cannot take away our independence – just as S.Korea, Canada, Japan have trade deals but are still independent. None of that is difficult to understand. So why is the EU still trying to take away our independence?

  30. dittoagain
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 7:21 am | Permalink

    The treasury doesn’t demand this because they live in the real world. Nobody is going to shell out 39 Billion unless there is a damn good reason. The reason is that this money is owing for commitments made in the past for projects and pensions etc made into the EU future. The ownership for us comes when we sat at the EU top table with the EU 28 past governments helping to make those decisions. OK let’s say we leave abruptly without acknowledging our commitments already made then what do you think will happen? there’s no need for me to spell it out- I find it hard to understand that someone of your supposedly enlightened and educated self could come up with such rubbish- I then think could it be the silly season? or else could this just blind panic setting in?

    Reply There is no legal requirement to pay anything after March 29 when we leave

    • Dave Andrews
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 12:00 pm | Permalink

      Fulfil our commitments.
      Let’s take the Galileo project for example.
      The UK is quite prepared to continue involvement in this and paying our share. However, the EU want us locked out of the security elements, and don’t seem to mind us ceasing our contribution.
      Roll this over to all the other projects we have made commitments to; presumably we agreed on the basis that the end result would be something of value. If we are denied the benefit, we are morally justified in ending our contribution.
      Our continuing contributions should be only for items that are of benefit to us, not the EUs political agenda.

  31. Charles v
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 7:25 am | Permalink

    Oh for heavens sake!

    The question at the moment are friction at the borders and contingency planning for no deal and you do a post about budgetary contributions which says nothing you haven’t said 101 times before.

    Reply There need be no friction at our borders as we will control them! Its all nonsense.

  32. agricola
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 7:36 am | Permalink

    Lets not be naïve , the Treasury under Hammond is a remain department. Every forecast they have made has been designed to make leave appear a very risky business. Being proved wrong at every instance has not deterred them. It is based on the (propaganda ed) principal that if you keep repeating the lie then eventually people will believe it.

    Incidentally your £13Bn in new tariff revenue is at best £8Bn because we will have to pay around £5Bn on our exports to the EU. Additionally we will find better sources for much of the EU food we import so this becomes a short term gain.

    The past two years demonstrates what a fragile entity our democracy is in the UK. The people vote giving a very clear message that we should leave the EU. Then all those bodies that do not like this apply their disproportionate power to those designated to carry it out. I have in mind, the H o L, H o C,CBI, IOD, Civil Service. The power and lobbying freedom they have is anti democratic. We even have to carry a fifth column in the negotiating team comprising a PM and chief advisor who since Chequers have proved to be blatantly remain. That the PM lied to the country in her various speeches over two years is to my mind unforgivable.

    My hope is that strong voices, especially from the grass roots of the conservative party take control of the conference. It is encouraging to hear that there is a tidal wave of disapproval of everything since Chequers. If conference is allowed to become the usual stand ,clap, and pay homage to ourselves it will spell the end to the party where it matters, among voters.

  33. gregory martin
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 7:39 am | Permalink

    Can we not just PRINT the 39 Billion in Euros, denominations of 50, and air drop them on ‘beleagured’ capitals of Italy, Greece,Spain Portugal etc?

    • Ian wragg
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 8:52 am | Permalink

      We’ve been doing that for years. Have you been to Spain lately and seen fully staffed airports with no planes.
      The magnificent roads which are largely unused.
      We’ve paid £billions towards EU infrastructure especially in Eastern Europe.

      • hans christian ivers
        Posted July 31, 2018 at 11:46 am | Permalink

        Yes, Ian and it has worked wonders for their growth and their consumers and our exportres thank you very much

        • mancunius
          Posted July 31, 2018 at 12:35 pm | Permalink

          Maybe it has benefited you in Scandinavia, but no UK exporter has had any net benefit from the empty motorways in Andalucia and glitzily renovated government buildings in Warsaw and Budapest.

          Ah, but then, you knew that already.

          • hans christian ivers
            Posted July 31, 2018 at 8:16 pm | Permalink

            no I did not know that having worked for UK exports to the Region successfully in the past 20 years but you probably do not care or know anyway?

        • Jagman84
          Posted July 31, 2018 at 1:28 pm | Permalink

          Most of it has gone to German banks, to bail them out for misjudged lending to the Piigs. It’s a consequence of keeping the Euro afloat.

        • libertarian
          Posted July 31, 2018 at 4:13 pm | Permalink

          hans

          Any jobs for the youth in Spain then? That would be the 0.6% GDP growth then ? Wow , wonders you say. Please also explain how Spainish consumers have benefited from planeless airports

        • fedupsoutherner
          Posted July 31, 2018 at 4:14 pm | Permalink

          Hans Which is why Spain, Greece, Italy and Portugal are in financial trouble. Spain is still very corrupt especially the local notaries. I don’t know where you live but perhaps you should consider staying in one of the EU countries as you think it’s so good. Let’s hope it stays that way as the Euro doesn’t look too sound at the moment.

          • hans christian ivers
            Posted July 31, 2018 at 8:18 pm | Permalink

            to me the EURO looks quite stable and I have lived in more of tehse countries for more years then you will ever experience or even understand, so what is new

        • NickC
          Posted July 31, 2018 at 5:50 pm | Permalink

          Hans, No it hasn’t because they’ve been impoverished by the Euro, a greater effect.

          • hans christian ivers
            Posted July 31, 2018 at 8:19 pm | Permalink

            NIckC,

            Your level of high knowledge about Europe that it is absolute astonishing, so of course I have no further comments to your particular insights

  34. JoolsB
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 7:45 am | Permalink

    Great idea John but good luck with getting that one past socialist, money wasting, Euro loving May and Hammond!

  35. hefner
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 7:47 am | Permalink

    That’s not a proper distribution of the £39bn, just another empty “we could, we should, a boost to us all”. As I guess anybody trying to establish a household monthly or annual budget I want some hard figures: so much for the NHS, so much for social care, armed forces, police, … In my household budget I want those figures to check how I have done at the end of the year.
    I want those figures to be able to (try to) keep you on the right track and be able at the next election to see whether you as my MP have actually kept your word and voted according to these promises. Or whether as has been the case over most of the past thirty years you have been in words a weakling for this or that gang within the Conservative Party but voting practically always along party lines.

    • Fedupsoutherner
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 11:07 am | Permalink

      Hefner. Where are the audited figures for EU spending? That’s what I would like to see.

      • acorn
        Posted July 31, 2018 at 12:37 pm | Permalink

        http://ec.europa.eu/budget/library/figures/internet-tables-all-revised.xls

        This sheet covers all EU spending into the private sector as well as the public sector.

      • hefner
        Posted July 31, 2018 at 1:27 pm | Permalink

        As Tina Turner could have (almost) said ‘What’s that got to do with it’. And BTW do you know how what you’ve just done is called rhetorically speaking?

      • hefner
        Posted July 31, 2018 at 1:42 pm | Permalink

        FUS, please have a look at fullfact.org
        “Is the EU budget signed off by auditors?”

        • NickC
          Posted July 31, 2018 at 8:39 pm | Permalink

          Hefner, Hahaha, no-one uses “fullfact” usually known as “fakefact”.

          • hefner
            Posted August 1, 2018 at 4:45 pm | Permalink

            Trumpy, trumpy, trumpy, Trump.

    • NickC
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 5:53 pm | Permalink

      Hefner, In your household you control your budget. That’s what Brexit is about – control. Unfortunately JR does not control the UK budget – we’d do better if he did – and he certainly doesn’t control the EU budget.

      • hefner
        Posted July 31, 2018 at 10:16 pm | Permalink

        Indeed, he doesn’t. But that should not prevent him from giving us an idea on how he would distribute the £39bn, given he asserts we are all going to benefit from that money. Will I potentially benefit directly from more money in the NHS, and/or my grandchildren from more money in schools, more grant money to local authorities, or will the money go preferentially to please the old schnocks to the military, the police, … (that’s just an example … 😉

  36. Adam
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 7:53 am | Permalink

    It is deviant that we have had a person tantamount to an EC Commissioner performing the role of UK Chancellor, controlling our money as if it were theirs. He should be removed & replaced.

    In balance, an arch Euro-sceptic should be empowered to control the whole of EU spending for 5 years. He could allocate whatever the UK needs as a priority over all else. As a token of kindness, he may authorise a few leisure centres in EU countries, built at their own local expense, but displaying prominent signs reading ‘This facility has been donated from UK funds’. However, the local country would also have to pay for the signs.

  37. Kevin
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 7:54 am | Permalink

    Two years after the referendum, the terms “Brexiter” and “Remainer” should be redundant. “Remain”, if anything, should refer to those who want to remain outside of the EU, because that should be our present position. Opponents would then be called, “Rejoiners”. The fact that the latter term is not accurate, and that “Brexiter” and “Remainer” are still in currency, reveals the political reality that the referendum vote – that democracy – is being treated as conditional rather than absolute. And the condition appears to be that we obtain the EU’s consent, at a price.

    Will we be taking this approach to general elections? For example, if Labour win the next one, will the Prime Minister wait a year befor submitting her resignation to the Monarch, in order to allow for the formation of a new Department for the Transition of Power? Will there be court proceedings on the basis that Parliament did not ratify the result? Will Labour have no authority to carry out policy because others say that Britons did not vote to be poorer? Will a second general election be called before the first one has been implemented?

    • sm
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 9:14 am | Permalink

      Kevin – one can but fantasise that Gina Miller, Andrew Adonis and Ken Clarke are planning to answer your question about the next GE as we speak…..! (sarc)

    • NickC
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 5:55 pm | Permalink

      Kevin, really good points, thank you.

  38. Michael
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 7:56 am | Permalink

    Remainers are pushing hard for a referendum. They say the first one was unfair, we did not know the facts then and the Leave campaign did not play by the rules.

    Leavers must counter the second season of project fear. We are going to face a barrage of stuff in the media warning the public in apocalyptic terms about what could possibly happen.

    Most important the benefits and opportunities of BREXIT need to be explained in easy to understand language. And if a deal is done it must NOT shackle the UK to the EU. We must achieve true freedom and independence.

    • The Great Eye
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 10:23 am | Permalink

      The media’s psychological manipulation, historically, means that at some stage they will seem to go onto the Brexiteer side.But too much.
      This position will then be relatively quick in retreat towards the undemocratic “Centre Ground” which is believed to be natural human behaviour. Then with a final last shot against our people but ever so slightly yet loudly saying “Well, only a second referendum will do.”
      Our media is not just Fake News. It is an active ongoing traitor to our country and people.

      • Chris
        Posted July 31, 2018 at 1:01 pm | Permalink

        Regarding your last sentence, TGE: the same in the USA where most of the media is controlled by the deep state (many ex CIA apparently went straight into powerful media jobs, and that was not coincidental).

      • Mitchel
        Posted August 1, 2018 at 9:36 am | Permalink

        Of course.It serves a higher cause!

      • The Great Eye
        Posted August 2, 2018 at 2:13 am | Permalink

        I always apologise to you JR and then keep on writing too much. I’ll try to stop. You do not know me nor in your personal and professional life are we likely to even meet. But my family tree , name by name, is traced back resident in the UK for 500 years . Not nobility. I was born and bred here.YET. My youth was nearly of the highest rebellion possible against my country.
        I am one of possibly less than 10 or even 5 British persons to have actually lived and worked, not via a Western company or agency …totally resident in a Communist country. And personally experienced what it is to exist under Socialism Soviet Style. Oh it makes Reagan’s term Evil Empire the greatest English understatement of all time. Worse, there are not words to convey the horror to a British mindset. There are no British equivalents and reference points to explain to our people anything they could relate to. You have to personally suffer it to know. Unless I get better at English 🙂

    • Fedupsoutherner
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 11:11 am | Permalink

      Michael. Project fear is so ridiculous I can’t imagine anyone believing it except Andy and a few other gullible people. For me, I have had enough of the childish games. I don’t listen anymore.

  39. Brian Tomkinson
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 8:00 am | Permalink

    Most on here agree wholeheartedly with you. However, Mrs May and Mr Hammond are unreformed Remainers who can see no further than keeping the UK in or as close as possible to EU and its control. The last two years have been a charade. I find Mrs May mendacious and duplicitous. She is now engaged in Project Fear Mark 2 rubbishing the very prospect you advocate. We must hope that you Conservative MPs know what you’re doing because why she is still PM and your party leader is a mystery.

    • Christine
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 10:35 am | Permalink

      May and Hammond need to go now before they inflict irreparable damage on our country.

      • fedupsoutherner
        Posted July 31, 2018 at 4:10 pm | Permalink

        Christine. They are already doing so. New car sales have halved since Hammonds tax punishments and the fiasco over diesel and electric cars.

  40. Iain Gill
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 8:07 am | Permalink

    Secure more quality and capacity, noble words but how?

    Unless and until real buying power is handed over to patients there is no chance.

  41. VotedOut
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 8:14 am | Permalink

    It has been reported that 95% or burglaries are never solved.

    It will not take long for that to have significant political blowback when more and more victims see no effective police response.

    A pledge for 30,000 extra police officers might be a good idea for a conservative politician worried that their middle class vote base is living in fear when once they were not.

    • bigneil
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 1:13 pm | Permalink

      Pledges are to get votes – once the polling station closes, the pledges have either done their work or not. They will be ignored and passed off with some trumped up excuse.

    • Anonymous
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 3:12 pm | Permalink

      We’re on our own.

      Some communities around here are resorting to private security patrols – to be honest it is looking very close to Mafia protection.

      The British government is useless.

      We

      Do

      Not

      Need

      It.

    • Nicholas Murphy
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 3:48 pm | Permalink

      Indeed. We can be certain that Corbyn will be pledging more coppers and the public will see the sense in that. Too bad, for us, that May doesn’t give a hoot about crime levels.
      P.S. As I type this, an acid thrower is being sent down for 17 years. Not enough of them are.

  42. Roy Grainger
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 8:31 am | Permalink

    Corbyn’s position is interesting. May’s white paper contains a specific commitment to abide by EU state aid rules along with assorted level playing field commitments. I don’t think Corbyn could ever agree to that. His current policy of exiting the Single Market but staying in the Customs Union is in practice very foolish but might represent a good staging post for a few years till we get a proper Brexit government. Just a thought given that the only available voting choice for most of us who read this blog in the next General Election will be Labour or UKIP.

    • fedupsoutherner
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 4:09 pm | Permalink

      Roy, what’s the point of voting for Labour? Corbyn wants us to stay in the customs union and the single market so we won’t get Brexit with him. Add to that we will soon be broke with the kind of spending he wants to do. Of the two UKIP would be my choice. They have a Conservative manifesto, want to abolish the BBC licence and want to get us out of the EU. That’s fine by me. If Farage was to return I think they would get more votes than ever as many Labour voters are pissed off too.

  43. Dennis Zoff
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 8:34 am | Permalink

    Very good John, but I would rather read your comment in the mainstream media or better, hear it in the house of commons….although nice here, it is still somewhat of an echo chamber!

    We need the population to hear and read your sensible and insightful thoughts directly!

    Reply I said this on Sky yesterday. Express reported it. etc. I publish here so its out there, not to keep it secret!

    • NickC
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 6:01 pm | Permalink

      Reply to reply, I cannot thank you enough for all your hard work promoting Leave. Though I sometimes disagree with you, if everyone in Parliament was as honourable and diligent as you, we would not be in this mess.

  44. Original Richard
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 8:51 am | Permalink

    The EU Commission don’t want an FTA with the UK.

    They either want WTO terms or UK membership of the/a CU.

    This is because they want to ensure they continue to receive as much revenue as they can from the 80% of import duties they collect – either from the UK when it belongs to the/a CU or on the duties collected on the WTO tariffs from goods imported into the EU from the UK.

    This is also making negotiation difficult.

  45. Peter D Gardner
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 8:55 am | Permalink

    Steady on, Dr Redwood. You’ll be having the Tories deliver Brexit if you’re not careful.

  46. Newmania
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 8:58 am | Permalink

    The EU have set out the basis of calculation and it has been accepted and incorporated into the Spring Statement. Under EU treaties the amounts are due and relate to the multi financial year budget pensions and on. There is no question that these undertakings were made and no question that our subsequent political nervous breakdown is no-one else’s fault.
    As all this derives ultimately form the treaties themselves the HOL have on balance concluded we are strong legal ground to fight this at an International Court. There was,considerable disagreement on this point and the EU have made it clear they will bring this case either themselves or via member Nations. It would be a question of whether international law regarding all treaties applied and to what extent …etc

    The cataclysmic consequences of being in this legal battle are such that it has never been contemplated. End of , so stop banging on about it.

    • mancunius
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 12:55 pm | Permalink

      Nice try, but no figure has been set out and agreed. And nothing is agreed until all parts of the entire agreement are agreed and ratified by all parties.
      You might as well get used to the fact that that isn’t going to happen.

      The EU have no case under international law. Let them sue – they’ll lose. End of – stope banging on about it.

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 3:13 pm | Permalink
  47. Alastair Harris
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 9:04 am | Permalink

    the economy needs a fiscal stimulus – tax cuts. The government needs to reduce its debt. The NHS is a monster that needs emergency surgery. Education suffers from the curse of the blob. The last thing we need is the political chattering classes thinking they have a windfall to splurge on their favourite projects

  48. Ken Moore
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 9:25 am | Permalink

    So why is Olly Robbins, Tony Blairs former advisor, handling Brexit negotiations?.

    Why is a man that has never had to face the ballot box been handed so much power ??

    • Turboterrier.
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 5:09 pm | Permalink

      Ken Moore

      Exactly. She is extracting the urine

    • NickC
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 6:04 pm | Permalink

      ken Moore, Good point – it is a constitutional outrage.

    • Original Richard
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 8:47 pm | Permalink

      Don’t be silly.

      Mr. Robbins is simply working to Mrs. May’s instructions.

      • mancunius
        Posted August 3, 2018 at 10:51 pm | Permalink

        Or perhaps the other way round?

  49. margaret
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 9:31 am | Permalink

    Lets invest it

  50. Mick
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 9:43 am | Permalink

    Just been watching Sky and there usual project fear with the help of the road haulage association about total chaos at Dover , don’t these people ever give up we are leaving end of and I’m sure we will survive, did we only start trading with the Eu post 1973 thought not, if it comes to it build more ferry terminals along the east coast it’s not rocket science

    • Bob or two
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 12:36 pm | Permalink

      Any build- up at ferry terminals in the UK will be build-up at ferry terminals in the EU.

      Are the French government’s toll road owners ready for it and their much-lauded EU interconnections to same irrespective of whether their final destinations’ traffic is to the UK?

      Well not on Sundays in France for sure. Their helicopters also are too few in number to deliver fuel, water and food, and certainly not on Sundays. Their armed services need a day off too!!!!
      They should stockpile!!! We could lease them helicopters so long as they pay using Pound Sterling. We are not stupid.

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 3:28 pm | Permalink

      Richard North had something sensible to say about that yesterday:

      http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86947

      “A point I’ve made several times now is that any interruptions in our supply of food, post-Brexit, are entirely preventable. As long as the government keeps our ports clear of outbound traffic, unless it can be shown that their consignments will be cleared once they arrive at the EU border, the flow of goods into the country (and medicines, for that matter) will be relatively secure.

      Indeed, as it may well prove impossible to export some foods to the EU, there may well be local surpluses and food normally produced for export is diverted onto the home market. Only later, as producers go out of business, will we experience shortages in certain commodities.”

      While we will be leaving the EU the EU countries supplying us will not be leaving the EU, and their suppliers will still be subject to EU law after we have left, so there will be no rational reason why we must immediately start to check incoming trucks which we are not checking now.

      If there were food shortages after Brexit that could only be because Theresa May had deliberately wanted to create “entirely preventable” food shortages.

      • Original Richard
        Posted July 31, 2018 at 8:52 pm | Permalink

        “A point I’ve made several times now is that any interruptions in our supply of food, post-Brexit, are entirely preventable. As long as the government keeps our ports clear of outbound traffic, unless it can be shown that their consignments will be cleared once they arrive at the EU border, the flow of goods into the country (and medicines, for that matter) will be relatively secure.”

        Correct, but are we sure the EU won’t try to blockade us entirely and prevent any goods coming to the UK ?

  51. getahead
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 10:04 am | Permalink

    “Why doesn’t the Treasury demand this?”
    As if you didn’t know the answer John. The Treasury works for the EU and its globalist leeches.

  52. Andrew S
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 10:07 am | Permalink

    Great, but this is merely a dream unless remainer May and Hammond are removed by Conservative MPs, and replaced by a true Brexit PM . Otherwise you’re simply wasting our time with titillations that can’t be realised.

  53. BOF
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 10:23 am | Permalink

    Oh yes Dr Redwood, oh yes.

    But to achieve all that requires replacing Mrs May, Hammond and all her remainer cabinet. In addition a transfer for Robbins to DVLA.

    Otherwise we can only dream. We ARE meant to be leaving the EU, but NOT with the current leadership who seem prepared to go to any lengths to keep us attached.

    This country, I am deeply afraid will be made to pay a terrible price by the EU once Mrs May has engineered Brino.

    • Turboterrier.
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 5:13 pm | Permalink

      BOF

      In addition a transfer for Robbins to DVLA.

      The motorist have enough crap to deal with why pick on us?

      Put him out to grass

  54. Kenneth
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 10:40 am | Permalink

    The Treasury does not work for us, but worst still neither does the Prime Minister.

    You need to replace the PM first and then start the sackings at the Treasury

  55. Jacey
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 10:42 am | Permalink

    Our host makes the excellent point that if we do not pay the 39 billion that we do NOT owe to the E.U. and we cease large regular net contributions to the E.U. then we could do a great deal to directly benefit ourselves.
    But approaching this issue from a slightly different angle I would like to see a closer examination of the structure that some propose sending this money too ; namely the E.U.
    Does it observe its own rules ( which Mr. Barnier attachs such importance too ) ? Is it a believer in free trade ? And perhaps most crucial of all ; is it a financially sound organisation ? Any detailed analysis of these considerations is frequently ignored by some commentators.

  56. mancunius
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 10:57 am | Permalink

    We need tax cuts in personal and corporate taxes now, and a resolute preparation for WTO trading to show we mean business. We also need to beef up our military defences.

    That means dumping May, Hammond, Heywood and Robbins. They need to be dumped so hard that they will never be able to get up off the ground again.

    What on earth are you waiting for, John???

  57. robert lewy
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 11:18 am | Permalink

    Surely it is beyond contention that TM is hell-bent on securing a deal which keeps us tethered to the EU at all costs.
    It follows that the aspirational possibilities that accrue from a £39 billion windfall from leaving on WTO terms are the least of our problems. I am sure that there will be sufficient to meet some of everyone’s needs.
    Much more important is that we remain ( pls excuse the word) vigilant in ensuring that the October vote on the Withdrawal Bill and Framework Agreement does not lock us into making the £39 billion payment unless there is enough agreement on the principle terms of the Framework agreement to ensure that:
    1) No dilution is possible by clever legal drafting which erodes those principles.
    2) No payment is made until the FTA agreement is executed
    Experience suggests the Government is not to be trusted.
    It is therefore necessary to hold TM’s face to the flames by making her in no doubt that any further betrayal will result in a motion of no-confidence and worse the probable election of a Labour Government. If a stand is not made at that point in time the passing of the Withdrawal Bill will mean saying goodbye to that £39 billion windfall. Country must be put before party, 17.4 million votes demand so.
    As regards the morality of paying the Withdrawal charge it should not be forgotten that the contributions paid into the various EU programs were made for the future benefit of the EU. As we will be outside the EU and will not participate in that benefit it seems only proper that an independent assessment should be made of the value of that asset which should be deducted from the exit charge. Of course that will not happen.

  58. Den
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 11:29 am | Permalink

    It is solely because the Treasury is part of the Establishment and the Establishment thinks more of itself than of the people they are mandated to serve.
    Similarly, with the EU Commission, who are more self-servers than representatives of the ordinary people. So the Treasury and the Cabal in Brussels belong to the same secretive elitist group which is the reason why OUR Treasury favours Brussels over democracy.
    And more the reason for this country to eliminate such an arrogant negative approach to OUR decision in the EU referendum. Why does Mr Hammond not cleanse his department of Remainers?

  59. Mr Obvious
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 11:30 am | Permalink

    Not many Remoaner Cabinet Ministers have resigned.

    One, our money is going to be sent to EU when we will not be a member.

    Two they do not wish to be a part of leaving the EU because they think they know it will do catastrophic damage to the UK.

    That’s because they know we are not leaving.

    Looking to the future, they are just hanging around.

    • Den
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 5:44 pm | Permalink

      BUT! Why do they think our leaving will do “Catastrophic damage to the UK”?
      We export MORE to the Rest of the world than we do to the EU BUT we buy more from the EU than any other country in the world.
      We have a MASSIVE Trade DEFICIT of £80 Billions per year with the EU but to them we are but servants who MUST do as we are told.
      What other Country in the World would tolerate such abuse from their suppliers?
      We must leave before the EU self-destructs and expects Britain to bail them out! AGAIN!

      • Know All
        Posted July 31, 2018 at 9:14 pm | Permalink

        “BUT! Why do they think our leaving will do “Catastrophic damage to the UK”?”
        Some of them honestly believe it. They are educated in believing “teacher knows best” ( experts ). Also that they themselves think independently.
        All of us as communal beings …go with the flow… at times.

        The LUCK is being wrong, totally wrong, in our lives using all at our command—information, intellect, logic…and finding we are thrust then because of a particular and a tiny event to the exact opposite which, we attach the aforementioned to prove to our new opinion.
        We find on each occasion we can justify both positions using almost identical input. It is called personal perspective and we know little about the latter and its decisiveness in absolutely everything we do and think. Everyone is right!

  60. hans christian ivers
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 11:45 am | Permalink

    JR

    there is still negotiations gong on with the EU and we still do not know what the outcome of these negotiations are gong to be and what size the end bill is going to be.

    So why, do you keep coming up with theses highly imaginative solutions instead of trying to back up the government, where they are trying to find the best solution for the UK. Your WTO solution is according to the IMF, OECD, Treasury and a number of independent insitutes just not a realistic option for the UK alone going forward.

    Can we please have some reality that supports UK business

    Reply This is a sensible solution which takes of the fact that the EU says no to anything the UK proposes.

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 2:40 pm | Permalink

      So what would have been the end bill if we had voted to stay in?

      The sequence of comments which finished here in February 2016:

      http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2016/02/13/lets-get-rid-of-eu-austerity/#comment-801362

      started with:

      “I make that 14.5% a year compound over those 7 years …”

      And led on to:

      “Carry on like that for another 40 years – it has been four decades since the last time we were allowed a direct say on this, in the 1975 referendum – and the annual cash payment it will increase further by a factor of 256 to £2842 billion.”

      And then:

      “… so it is fair to say that if the EU carries on like it has done over the past 7 years then by the time we have the next EU referendum our net contribution would be eating up most, two thirds, of our public spending.”

      You never think about that, do you.

    • libertarian
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 4:17 pm | Permalink

      hans

      Please dont make yourself look any more unemployable. Its sad when a formerly successful person goes off the rails by being stuck in a luddite backwater

      Quote

      ..half of the UK’s trade is already on WTO terms with the US, China and..large emerging nations..it’s not the end of the world if the UK trades under WTO rules with the EU..it’s not like trade..is going to stop..it is perfectly manageable.” R. Azevêdo, Director General of WTO.

      • hans christian ivers
        Posted July 31, 2018 at 8:23 pm | Permalink

        with your level of personal arguments and therefore the level of quality I am not particularly worried about my future prospects , but I am more worried about your self-worth when you have to look yourself in the mirror. But thank you for the very deep advise

    • NickC
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 6:08 pm | Permalink

      Hans, The UK already uses the WTO system for c61% of our exports. There is no reason why that cannot apply to the other c39% which goes to the EU.

      • hans christian ivers
        Posted July 31, 2018 at 8:24 pm | Permalink

        NIckC

        Your figures are wrong for goods once more, but never seems to bother you anyway

  61. Andy
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 11:54 am | Permalink

    There is no £39bn.

    The Treasury says it is not there. The OBR agrees. And the IFS.

    The £39bn exists only in the minds of Brexiteers.

    However what does actually exist is a huge bill for your Brexit.

    We will be paying it off until the 2060s.

    And all that time we will be getting comparatively poorer too.

    You will all be 6ft under by the time your debt is settled.

    But the real tragedy of Brexit is not the economic wealth you are stealing from your kids.

    It is the Rights you are removing, the values you are stomping on, the undemocratic way you are behaving and the backwards direction in which you are taking our country. Demonstrated perfectly by the frequency with which you all refer to the Second World War – a conflict you were all too young to have actually fought in yourselves.

    • Edward2
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 7:45 pm | Permalink

      £39 billion exists if we pay it.

    • NickC
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 8:51 pm | Permalink

      Andy, You sound like Remain with their pamphlet stating that we get nearly £10 out of the EU for every £1 we put in. Where’s all this money coming from? Unless the EU is a Ponzi scheme, of course.

      We will certainly do better financially out of the EU than trapped within it, obeying its labyrinthine rules, and paying it danegeld every year. Our children will no longer be slaves to the EU empire: we will gift them their heritage back.

      • hans christian ivers
        Posted August 2, 2018 at 7:46 am | Permalink

        never have so few said so much nonsense in such a short time

    • Anonymous
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 9:43 pm | Permalink

      WTF ?

      How often is WW2 mentioned ?

    • Original Richard
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 9:53 pm | Permalink

      Andy,

      Only an EU collaborator could believe that leaving the EU and enabling us to control our own money, laws, borders and assets and enabling us to elect and remove our own leaders was less democratic than remaining in the EU.

      There is no way that leaving the EU will cost us more than remaining as past history shows.

      We have not only been a net contributor for many years to the EU budget, whilst most countries are net recipients, but we have now a massive £80bn per year trading deficit. We also gave away our fishing grounds.

      Whatever damage the EU can inflict upon the UK when it is out of the EU it is nothing to the damage the EU can inflict upon us when we are in the EU and subject to all their rules, laws, directives and regulations.

    • Fedupsoutherner
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 10:02 pm | Permalink

      Andy. Undemocratic? You’re having a laugh. I’ve decided you must be the main writer for a boys comic. Your posts contain the most exaggerated load of bull designed to draw attention to yourself. Do you really think anyone takes you seriously? You always brighten my day though and I’ve always got a smile on my face when I’ve read your posts. Thanks for that.

  62. Prigger
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 12:02 pm | Permalink

    The UK October Revolution

    It could start with the Labour and Tory Party Conferences. Internal strife not just on Brexit especially for Labour.

    US Elections

    EU further disintegration.

    The probable culmination date of US-EU sanctions and counter-sanctions and who will win….and its ramifications on geo-politics.

    We will see what happens.

    It is to be hoped key remoaners resign from the Tory Party and set up buy-to-let properties. Then thump massive taxes on such…instead of a costly trial. Prudent!!!!

  63. Local Lad
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 12:17 pm | Permalink

    MR REDWOOD Please add to your list the debt owed by the Treasury to Equitable Life Pensioners after the inadequate compensation scandal.

    • ChrisShalford
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 7:22 pm | Permalink

      Similarly there was no compensation package for savers with the less well known Presbyterian Mutual.

  64. Jasg
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 1:24 pm | Permalink

    It was the same when we decided to go to War in Afghanistan and Iraq. £70 billion was the final bill give or take a billion. Are these countries any better off?

  65. Victoria Smart
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 2:43 pm | Permalink

    “If we left on WTO terms we would also have the £13bn of new tariff revenue. That should also be given back to us as tax cuts.”
    This will add 5.7% duty to the cost of our materials plus the admin cost of importing which will have to be passed onto our customers and our EU customers will have another 5.7% added when we export our finished goods to the EU.

    • NickC
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 9:03 pm | Permalink

      Victoria, That’s not so smart. We already trade with the rest of the world – about 61% of our exports go there, and c46% of our imports come from there, all using the WTO system. We therefore clearly can cope with the customs and admin because we already do. And those figures will rise when we leave, to compensate – because the EU will become more expensive.

  66. Posted July 31, 2018 at 2:54 pm | Permalink

    Mr Redwood,

    “The reason the UK economy is growing more slowly than the US is they have supportive tax cuts and spending boosts, and helpful authorities who are promoting growth.”

    Again you are confusing association and causality. The main reason why the US grows faster (trendwise, nit quarter by quarter) is that the US has much higher population growth as wel as a higher growth of physical capital. In addition, the US primary sector is much larger (much lower population density plus highgky productive agricultural and mining sectors). I suspect that the overall quality of US management is better and finally, US firms operate is a much less “social” environment while conditions for capital are close to ideal. That would be difficult to replicate anywhere where democratic participation in key political contests is high.

    You will not be able to replicate US growth in the UK with existing physical and human capital, and socio-economic culture for two reasons: (1) extreme reliance on services ( low productivity potential)and 2 likely exodus of EU immigrants (this year alone 50K skilled polish workers joined the Netherlands labour force, mostly migrating from the UK) thus depressing growth of human capital. If one could change the culture and effect of democratic institutions, of course any country can be turned into a Tory sweatshop, or a Labour Venezuela. I think the British people in general are to pragmatic and conservative to move far, culturally.

    Taxation plays a minor role in long term growth (it is a bit like cosmetic surgery, after a while the effect disppears and key variables return to the mean of long term trends.

    Expert opinion (BoE for instance do not estimate UK potential growth (as different from cyclical variation) above 2-2.5%). You are betting on a slow horse (UK) in a relatively slow group (Europe , ie not only the EU). Reason: demographics, democracy and mobile capital.

    • mancunius
      Posted August 3, 2018 at 11:01 pm | Permalink

      The BoE is a political tool, not an ‘expert opinion.’

      This week’s latest Eurostat figures show that the UK economy is now expected to have overtaken the eurozone again in Q2 of this year.

      90 per cent of future growth in world trade will be outside the EU.

      Over the last 12 months the take-up of City offices has increased by 10 per cent.

      The Lord Mayor of the City of London has said that it now seems there would be only 7,500 jobs moving from the City – not the 75,000 predicted by the Project Fear consultants engaged by the government.

      Quite an error – like all the other doommongering.

  67. KeithL
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 3:14 pm | Permalink

    I see where Mrs May is going to meet Macron of France on Friday..I thought she was on her holidays..so just what the hell is going on?..doesn’t she know we are going out 29th March, we don’t want another deal because we did not vote for another deal so why bother talking to Macron…why leave and then rejoin in some other way..doesn’t make sense..let those that want to continue trading with them do it through WTO rules whenever we get our membership sorted out..nothing about this from Fox yet

    • mancunius
      Posted August 3, 2018 at 11:05 pm | Permalink

      KeithL – Welcome!!!!
      How are GregH, PrezleB, cryingoutloud, meAgain, and the rest of your little gang of one?
      It’s good to have your Fox references recycled again. I was beginning to miss them. It must be a lonely life for you, always recycling the same old same old, having to make up a constantly new ID every day, and it must be so frustrating for you, never being able to work out why you’re always so easy to spot…

  68. Chris
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 3:23 pm | Permalink

    It seems that yet another Conservative Association has had enough of May and her Chequers Plan, and many members are apparently so disgusted they are speaking out very forcefully:

    “Westmonster went to Orpington Conservative Association and asked members what they thought about Theresa May and her Chequers deal, and their answers were damning.

    It’s got so bad, that life-long Tory members are now refusing to campaign for the party.

    Last week the Association released a statement “The sense of betrayal is clearly behind the widespread anger expressed among members. A clear majority were calling for the Prime Minister to be replaced.”

  69. Denis Cooper
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 3:56 pm | Permalink

    JR, why is Michael Gove allowing this silly rubbish to go unchallenged?

    https://twitter.com/roobloo1/status/1024052606669340672

    “There will be serious problems in terms of some of the fresh ingredients we bring in from the European Union,” says Jim Winship from the British Sandwich Association, meaning a limited choice for consumers as there is no way to stockpile fresh ingredients”

    Do you see this comment?

    “It’s about delay at the ports not restrictions. Why would you or anyone else know better than a man whose job it is to know these details. Delays are not disputed hence HMG setting aside miles of motorway as a lorry park.”

    That “HMG” is your Tory government, the minister concerned is a Tory who claimed that he wanted to leave the EU, so why does he allow this misinformation to circulate without any challenge or correction?

    Day after day, week after week, month after month, we have had this constant stream of anti-Brexit propaganda, and as Theresa May’s government has done nothing to stem the flow, and has actually added to it, what does that tell us?

    • Chris
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 7:29 pm | Permalink

      I think Michael Gove has always been of a dubious character. The fact that he stabled Boris in the back revealed all. He was not really a committed Leave voter and was more interested apparently in personal ambition and power juggling. Someone apparently not to be trusted, as has been borne out again with the Chequers Plan.

  70. margaret howard
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 4:09 pm | Permalink

    Was this article commissioned by the Daily Mail?

    • NickC
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 9:05 pm | Permalink

      Margaret Howard, Are your comments copied and pasted from EU central control?

      • Stred
        Posted August 2, 2018 at 8:01 am | Permalink

        More likely the HoL or Oxford Uni for Daft Women.

    • Paper Boy
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 11:38 pm | Permalink

      You should not blatantly advertise a paper even though , from time to time, it gets it absolutely correct.

  71. Spratt
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 5:09 pm | Permalink

    I haven’t read the Chequers proposals in detail but have heard that they include a continued contribution to the EU Development Fund. I recently visited a former French colony that has had a series of coups since independence and that has desperately poor infrastructure . According to locals, corruption is endemic. EU logos adorn many public works and I was informed that the usual practice is to repair half a kilometre of road, send photos to Brussels and then cease all activity. Where the money goes is open to conjecture.

  72. Peter Parsons
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 5:46 pm | Permalink

    The question isn’t whether the UK can afford to honour its commitments, but whether it can afford not to. The figure represents the remainder of the commitment made by the UK under the current EU budgeting cycle. If the UK turns around and says “we aren’t going to keep to what we previously committed, we won’t keep our word, we won’t honour our promises”, who in the rest of the world is going to trust the UK in the future? After all, if the UK proves itself capable of breaking a promise once, no country will believe that the UK is not capable of doing so again.

    Anyone who cares about the UK’s integrity and reputation in the world should not be countenancing the thought of not honouring our agreed commitments.

    • Edward2
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 6:55 pm | Permalink

      Agreed commitments…..what legal ones are those?
      Keep our word…..what legal promises?
      Please give us evidence of your claims.

      • Peter Parsons
        Posted August 1, 2018 at 11:23 am | Permalink

        Who mentioned the word “legal” Edward? Not me. The UK was a party the current 7 year EU budgeting cycle, including how contributions would be shared and made. That agreement should be honoured.

        Imagine you go out for dinner with 27 friends and agree beforehand to split the bill. At the start of the evening you all then order a 5 course dinner and drinks. However, partway through the third course you decide that you just don’t want to be there any more and say you’re leaving. Are you under a legal obligation to pay the share you agreed to at the start of the evening? No. Are you under a moral obligation to honour your commitment to your friends? I would say yes. Would your friends think less of you as a result if you don’t pay your share? Quite possibly.

        If you want the UK to have a reputation as a country which signs up to things and then doesn’t follow through by honouring its agreements, by all means, argue for not paying, but don’t expect the UK’s reputation to go untarnished if that is what the UK government does.

    • NickC
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 9:13 pm | Permalink

      Peter Parson, You obviously have no idea what you are talking about. We cannot owe more than we would have paid if we had remained part of the EU – for obvious reasons. From April 2019 to end Dec 2020 (the current MFF end), is 21 months at c£10bn net/yr, equating to about £18bn. Then the EU has liabilities to the UK. The net result is probably around zero, certainly nowhere near the ludicrous £39bn.

      • Peter Parsons
        Posted August 1, 2018 at 4:39 pm | Permalink

        If the net result was zero, as you state, would that not have been the outcome of the calculations? The calculation has been agreed by the UK. The UK should honour its agreements.

    • Fedupsoutherner
      Posted July 31, 2018 at 9:55 pm | Permalink

      Peter. I wonder also what the rest of the world thinks about the negative attitude the EU shows us. Complete arrogance.

      • Peter Parsons
        Posted August 1, 2018 at 11:43 am | Permalink

        It depends on whether you think the EU is showing a negative attitude. The EU has a set of rules, rules which the UK has helped to shape over many years, one of which is those around membership. The rules aren’t going to be rewritten solely to suit the internal domestic politics of a country which has chosen to leave (or to assuage fundamental divisions within a single political party in that country).

        A country is either a member of the EU, a member of EEA/EFTA or a third country. The UK has said two of those are not acceptable, so that leaves only one option. That’s not down to the EU, that’s the UK’s choice.

        • Fedupsoutherner
          Posted August 1, 2018 at 2:12 pm | Permalink

          Yes and out is what we voted for. If the EU can offer trade deals to the rest if the world without threatening behaviour then why not us?

    • mancunius
      Posted August 3, 2018 at 11:16 pm | Permalink

      Non, no, no – you’re thinking of some other country. There are no such legally binding ‘commitments’. There is a conditional imprecise and extremely generous offer that we shall certainly withdraw if the EU continues on its current course.
      It would never get through Parliament unless the EU agrees a future trade deal, which it refuses to do without trying to apply its political rules to us.

      I don’t recall our agreeing to introduce communism in order to trade with the USSR and China. We are not going to accept one of your grannies every time we import a slab of Edam. Buy One Get One Landed On You is not an attractive business model.

      We are not even legally liable for payments for membership beyond 29 March 2019.
      But if you disagree, find a suitable international court and sue. The lawyers will all be thrilled. But it will take years and get you nowhere.
      Art. 50 has no stipulation about financial commitments.

  73. hans christian ivers
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 5:53 pm | Permalink

    JR

    I do not see that to be the case for most of the leaders of northern Europe nor Spain or Portugal,so let us just give them time to negotiate before we start big biased conclusions

    • mancunius
      Posted August 3, 2018 at 11:24 pm | Permalink

      The ‘leaders of northern Europe nor Spain or Portugal’ have no part in the negotiations, which are with the Commission. They’ve kept as quiet as docile mice so far, and it’s too late for them to pipe up now.

      Nor have they any say at all in our decision as to how we are going to spend the £39bn we shall not be giving you.

      In any case, the EU has ensured that nothing it is prepared to agree to will ever get through Parliament. I wonder if M Barnier has ever heard the phrase ‘too clever by half’? It might have been invented for him.

      French anglophobic chauvinism has won the day – the rest of the 27 will just have to suck it up.

  74. Max Taylor
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 7:04 pm | Permalink

    Brilliant argument and writing, who can syndicate this everywhere?

  75. Iain Gill
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 9:32 pm | Permalink

    Civil Servants should not be offered employment contracts longer than they have already worked in the private sector. So if they have worked 2 years in private sector offer them 2 years in civil service, if they have worked 10 years in private sector offer them 10 years max in civil service, etc. And nobody without private sector experience should be allowed into the civil service at all.

  76. Steve
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 9:37 pm | Permalink

    This country ‘owing’ Europe anything ? Totally absurd.

    Twice in the last century the UK has given blood to free Europe from tyranny. Europe owes us !

    Barnier and his walloon friends would probably not exist if it wasn’t for the UK.

    As for May, well I’m seriously beginning to think the view that she is deliberately sabotaging BREXIT might actually be true. If May and her goons think the British public will let this go unpunished they’re making a grave misjudgement. Thwarting the will of the people carries the risk of mass civil unrest.

    In her latest act of arrogance – the liar is now shacked up in Macron’s pad. This is very alarming as we know that prior to Chequers she was at Merkel’s place. This kind of skullduggery behind the backs of the electorate and parliament should be stopped immediately.

    What scheming treachery is the sneak up to this time ? She arrogantly thinks it’s acceptable to go galavanting behind our backs propagating more capitulations to her European cohorts.

    I also wonder how many people are aware that May is actually french, family name Brazier.

    As far as one might be concerned for the national interest and this country being bullied and held to ransom, the woman is a security risk and needs expedient removal, followed by prosecution.

  77. Chris
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 9:56 pm | Permalink

    Some money should be put back into vocational and technical training e.g. President Trump seems to know exactly what to do:

    ” President Trump Delivers Remarks on Vocational Workforce Development – Career Technical Education Bill Signing.

    Today, prior to a MAGA Rally in Tampa Florida, President Trump will sign his administration’s first major Education Policy bill at Tampa Bay Technical High School and deliver remarks on the ongoing vocational/technical workforce development program.

    The bill received bipartisan support in Congress and will allot $1B in grants to students receiving vocational and technical skills training to aid workforce development in the U.S…”
    (Source The Conservative Tree House website)

  78. Ed Mahony
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 11:02 pm | Permalink

    And thank you, Mr Redwood. God bless you, sir.

  79. Lindsay McDougall
    Posted July 31, 2018 at 11:30 pm | Permalink

    Why haven’t you and your fellow Brexiteers not mounted a rebellion in parliament and forced the Government’s hand?

    I’ve decided that if the Conservative Party is still led by pro-European Tory Wets at General Election time, I shall be voting for UKIP. And I won’t give a damn if that let’s Corbyn in. Better the devil himself than a bunch of stinking hypocrites.

  80. Know All
    Posted August 1, 2018 at 1:24 am | Permalink

    Correction in syntax of point 1/ should be written and understood as “The breadth of the GAP inbetween the cavity walls and the external walls of the house” not to be confused with as I wrote the breadth of the cavity wall itself which may be good in one respect but bad in another.
    #House construction is complex 🙂

  81. Know All
    Posted August 1, 2018 at 3:01 am | Permalink

    Apologies for numerous comments. Yes I’ve seen Russian villagers well away from cities wearing their fur coats inside out. What can they be thinking of?
    Don’t play them at chess! They think too much.

  82. Cis
    Posted August 1, 2018 at 10:40 am | Permalink

    Surprised not to see funding fishery protection boats and beefing up the border agency in your up-front list.

  83. Martin
    Posted August 1, 2018 at 11:22 am | Permalink

    Sorry Mr Redwood – I come back top the same point if you want to improve Britain’s economic performance the biggest obstacle remains the Nimby planning “system”.

    The no-deal Brexit, we are heading for, will cause an enormous amount of economic rebalancing. Any rebuilding cannot happen if things are stuck for years in the planning appeals “system”.

  84. Posted August 2, 2018 at 4:25 pm | Permalink

    Here’s a wild idea – why not zero rate gas and electric and water? The only reason we have a 5% VAT rate is because the EU won’t let us exempt it or zero rate it. That would be a nice Brexit bonus for everyone…

    • mancunius
      Posted August 3, 2018 at 10:46 pm | Permalink

      And why do we have 20% VAT on tourist hotel costs, when other countries get away with 8-10% for the sake of promoting their tourism.

  • About John Redwood


    John Redwood won a free place at Kent College, Canterbury, He graduated from Magdalen College Oxford, has a DPhil and is a fellow of All Souls College. A businessman by background, he has been a director of NM Rothschild merchant bank and chairman of a quoted industrial PLC.

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