The Chancellor gets his big fiscal consequences of leaving wrong- we will have £39bn more to spend!

The Chancellor’s re use of silly forecasts by the government  this time admits that the model they use “is not well suited to analysis of short term developments”. That as near as we get to an apology for the disgracefully wrong forecasts of the aftermath of the referendum they used to try to frighten people into voting to remain.

He just says in 15 years time there will be a bit less growth and tries to convert this into tax loss. Meanwhile he studiously refuses to argue the case in government which he should be arguing, that there is no way we should give £39bn to the EU when leaving! Now that would provide a great boost to our economy in the short term, as we could start spending it in April next year.

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219 Comments

  1. Posted August 24, 2018 at 6:31 am | Permalink

    You should by now have accepted that May and Hammond must go.

    • Posted August 24, 2018 at 11:52 am | Permalink

      Exactly. As I said yesterday, you’re preaching to the converted here John. The only hope for your party but much more importantly for the country, is for these two socialist treacherous duplicitous incompetents to go – and go now. Why have you or any of your fellow Brexiters not acted yet?

      • Posted August 24, 2018 at 9:22 pm | Permalink

        Hammond is the modern day cowardly Halifax. May Chamberlain. Put them out of ours and their own misery.

        • Posted August 25, 2018 at 7:13 am | Permalink

          You are wrong to malign Chamberlain. He had been an excellent Chancellor, May was useless as Home Secretary. Also Chamberlain allowed Britain to re-arm whilst buying time to do so. His reputation is past time for revision.

    • Posted August 24, 2018 at 6:19 pm | Permalink

      Dear Micke–Some of us simply could not begin to understand how these two Remainiacs could have become 1 and 2 in the first place never mind being allowed to continue–Idiotic on the part of Tories–Bring back smoke filled rooms and to Hell with the 3 months business. Beyond my credence that Hammond allowed to mouth off with his unchanged opinions at this stage in the way he has. Who cares what he individually thinks especially given the Treasury’s opinions being proven bumf and viewed with nothing short of derision?

  2. Posted August 24, 2018 at 6:40 am | Permalink

    Quite honestly John it seems that Governments have been using questionable figures and systems for years, for either recording or predicting anything.
    Look at the recorded Crime figures which exclude so many crimes it is all rather pointless.
    Look at the immigration figures, which are simply based on an average through some airports.
    Look at examination results, which are fixed up or down to a percentage pass rate.

    Then we have trade figures which are again adjusted up or down months later.
    Then and still, the farcical Fear one before the Referendum, and now Fear two of if we leave the EU.

    Quite honestly John the less the Government interfered the better for all of us, as the constantly moving of the goalposts just lead to farcical decisions.

    • Posted August 24, 2018 at 12:00 pm | Permalink

      Look at the entirely bogus (government claimed £250K) graduate lifetime earnings premium. It is complete tosh historical data when few went to university, confusing cause and effect and ignoring the cost of the degree, taxation and the lost 3 years earning.

      For about 2/3 of graduates you are saddling them with £50K + of debt for a largely worthless degree in a largely worthless subject. It is government mis-selling on a massive scale (and it damages the economy too). No wonder some youth are so angry.

      • Posted August 25, 2018 at 11:57 am | Permalink

        UK government taking on EU and bank debt and converting it into consumer and student debt?

    • Posted August 24, 2018 at 1:11 pm | Permalink

      Soviet grain harvests and tractor production figures come to mind!

    • Posted August 24, 2018 at 2:35 pm | Permalink

      If 82% of UK population growth is from migration, how long might it take people from other countries to outvote whatever indigenous folk want to do within their own homeland?

    • Posted August 24, 2018 at 4:09 pm | Permalink

      and then there is inflation! Pick a number that suits the Government and civil service and BoE pensions

  3. Posted August 24, 2018 at 6:42 am | Permalink

    Hammond looks to me like a politician maximising TV, radio, and confrontational headline sucking article writing income prior to his withdrawal from politics certainly for good.

  4. Posted August 24, 2018 at 6:51 am | Permalink

    Leaving the EU, not the sheer fear of it was the subject of the referendum and forecasts preceding it ..again and again and again..ye gods its like a malfunctioning robot having a breakdown. Fear and uncertainty has indeed cost the country £200bn of annual additional borrowing and a debauched monetary Policy .
    Borrowing and throwing money at the economy cannot go on forever and the immoral theft of our children`s money by the old is an unwholesome not to say vampiric spectacle. In fact Hammond has not even begun to grasp the threats to this country , the extent of lost growth at its most benign is more than was experienced in 2008

    Think on that you desiccated grasping coffin dodgers in the year in which dead people contributed more to the Conservative Party than the living

    • Posted August 25, 2018 at 1:23 pm | Permalink

      Newmania

      The more that you Andy, Tabulazero, Hans and Rein throw around vile abuse, idiotic scare stories and display your total ignorance the more determined we are to Leave. Do keep it up

      • Posted August 25, 2018 at 8:32 pm | Permalink

        Libertarian,

        I was not aware there we any particular scare stories but I was aware of unwanted and unnecessary personalise attacks by you , which I both out of order and unnecessary and you should know better

        • Posted August 25, 2018 at 10:26 pm | Permalink

          Still no apology hans for your “unnecessary personalised attack” on me and one other on here recently.
          Seems you get all cross when it happens to you.
          Out of order as you say.

        • Posted August 28, 2018 at 6:12 pm | Permalink

          hans

          I guess you not being aware doesn’t surprise me in the least, you seem to be in a bubble formed sometime 30 years ago.

          By the way in your perpetual anger at people who know more than you your grammar and spelling is getting worse with each post. Try proof reading before pressing enter, or better still type your missive then press delete

    • Posted August 25, 2018 at 3:44 pm | Permalink

      £200 billion?
      Borrowing is falling.
      The deficit is ahead of target for reducing to zero.
      Growth continues.
      Above forecasts.

      • Posted August 25, 2018 at 8:34 pm | Permalink

        Edward2

        With the lowest growth in Europe (except for one quarter) and the lowest in the G7 and a deficit when most northern European countries have a surplus.

        You really have a bit of an illusion wot work on

        • Posted August 25, 2018 at 10:29 pm | Permalink

          Doesnt actually answer the question about where the 200 billion claim comes from though dors it hans?

          PS look at growth over a longer timescale and you see how sluggish the Eurozone has been

  5. Posted August 24, 2018 at 6:57 am | Permalink

    Presumably he is not willing or able to take on Sir Humphrey?

  6. Posted August 24, 2018 at 7:00 am | Permalink

    I am utterly sick of Leavers telling me that I did not know what I was voting for or why I voted.

    No. I did not expect things to be easy.

    • Posted August 24, 2018 at 7:00 am | Permalink

      Replace Leavers with Remainers.

      • Posted August 24, 2018 at 11:45 am | Permalink

        Point out to those Remainers that if the vote was to Remain, then the Schengen wall would go – -and UNLIMITED people from anywhere, could be invited by Merkel and her buddies – – all able to walk into the UK for free everything. Ask the Remainers what they would do about THAT. I have – and not one of them has even started to give me an answer.

        • Posted August 24, 2018 at 11:48 am | Permalink

          And ask them what our daily “contributions” would go up to – -something that has been kept VERY quiet.

        • Posted August 24, 2018 at 5:39 pm | Permalink

          What happened to the Brexiteer version of ‘project fear’ about Turkey about to join the EU?

          Reply Turkey entered into a comprehensive Association Agreement including free movement as we said, and we then with the rest of the EU had to pay to help them build an enormous bord4er fence.

          • Posted August 24, 2018 at 8:55 pm | Permalink

            Whilst there are hurdles to overcome for Turkey to gain membership there have been several sessions of recent talks and in the near future they will be admitted.
            Remain said it would never happen.

          • Posted August 25, 2018 at 12:00 pm | Permalink

            What happened to Remainer reassurances that any talk of an EU army was sheer fantasy?

        • Posted August 24, 2018 at 8:16 pm | Permalink

          It doesn’t merit an answer because it is a fake fear. There are 500m people living in the EU and if Brexiteers are to be believed they would all rock up here and settle in the UK tomorrow.

          And yet we know they won’t – because they could have done it yesterday and didn’t. They could have done it any day for the last 25 years. And didn’t. Somewhere well north of 99% of those who could have moved here never have. And never will. And that is because the vast majority of people are happy to stay in their home country. You probably have no interest in moving to Croatia. And, similarly, most Croatians have no desire to move here. They have beautiful country with great food and lovely beaches. They have no desire to move to whatever grim town you come from to live in an overpriced bedsit, in naff weather while being surrounded by unwelcoming and unfriendly natives.

          • Posted August 25, 2018 at 9:44 am | Permalink

            “They” said under 15,000 Poles would want to come here.
            Over 600,000 actually came here.
            No one thinks the whole of Europe wants to come here Andy.
            That is your absurd fantasy which you predict on others.
            But having an increase in our population of several hundred thousands every year is unsustainable.
            We need a new city to be built every year.
            The level of growth of our population since 2000 is the greatest in our history.
            Ten times the post-war average.

          • Posted August 25, 2018 at 1:30 pm | Permalink

            Andy

            That being the case that 99% of Europeans want to stay in their own country would you let us know why you come on here day after day crying and whining that the nasty Brexit people have stopped people moving?

            So Andy we discover as I think most Leavers have said all along the EU is a club for the 1% & the wealthy

            So according to Andy

            Theres no real value in the freedom of movement as 99% dont want to move

            There is no single market in services ( 80% of our economy)

            The SM/Customs union in goods is now a small and diminishing part of our exports and makes our food expensive

            So what does that leave us with Andy as a reason to remain?

          • Posted August 25, 2018 at 1:30 pm | Permalink

            Andy, I know of no Leave who has claimed any such thing. The fact is we have had average net migration of over 250,000 people per year, every year for the last 14 years. There are no signs the influx is stopping. “Despite Brexit”.

            There are now over 9 million people in the UK not born here. And those are the official figures. The reality is much worse – probably double – given the NINos. That is just not sustainable; as well as stealing our rights to decide who comes here and what sort of society we want.

        • Posted August 24, 2018 at 9:19 pm | Permalink

          Bigneil, the uk is outside the schengen area. That is why you have to show a passport at heathrow and st pancras. Didnt you know? Maybe you never travel out of little england

        • Posted August 25, 2018 at 8:37 pm | Permalink

          Edward2

          Thinking that Turkey will be admitted to the Eu, I just scare propaganda and fake new and there is no basis of that prediction, except scare mongering

          • Posted August 26, 2018 at 7:48 am | Permalink

            Nonsense Hans.
            Talks are going on
            It is a policy objective of the EU
            It is an ambition of Turkey

            I am not frightened nor scared of that happening.
            Are You?

      • Posted August 24, 2018 at 1:49 pm | Permalink

        If only we could.

  7. Posted August 24, 2018 at 7:04 am | Permalink

    No such thing as more or less to spend. It’s a false narrative filled with language, framing and propaganda satchi and satchi would be proved of.

    HM Treasury coud spend £50 trillion on Monday morning if it wanted to by using an index finger. There’s no gold coin getting pushed into the ethernet.

    But of course that would cause inflation. So the key to government spending is if you are going to spend X you better make sure you have the skills and resources to absorb that spending or taxes will have to rise to stop inflation.

    It doesn’t matter if it is banks, companies or government all spending carries an inflation risk. The only constraint an index finger at the treasury has is a skills and resource constriant period.

    • Posted August 24, 2018 at 2:13 pm | Permalink

      Derek Henry

      Thanks for yet another deluded post. You seriously , i mean you actually typed this… you seriously dont know that raising taxes will actually cause more inflation not less ?? Boy oh boy

      Oh and we have a major skills shortage in the UK. 829,000 unfilled jobs today

    • Posted August 24, 2018 at 3:34 pm | Permalink

      And inflation means the cash value of the inflation linked debts, 11.5 trillion pounds, gets bigger.

  8. Posted August 24, 2018 at 7:07 am | Permalink

    Keep up the good work John, you’re cutting the feet from underneath the remainer’s whose arguments are being shown to be erroneous if not spurious. Even wavering Tory MPs who have hitherto been unsure which way to jump are starting to get the message.

    Tad

  9. Posted August 24, 2018 at 7:14 am | Permalink

    We need Javid. He’ll get us our pints through if any man can.

  10. Posted August 24, 2018 at 7:14 am | Permalink

    The Chancellor’s worldview is perculiar. Potential half percent drop in growth per year (some of which will be lower population), forecast over 1 or 2 business cycles over which time the world will go through more AI, more robotics, more nanotech, more self-drive, more space, more gene editing, quantum computing, etc. There will be political instabilities, more emerging markets will have fully emerged, platforms will come out of Africa not just USA and Asia, and so on.

    So an unpredictable, noise size downside growth risk at a time of great change and opportunity. A time where the UK will want reliable institutions, flexibility, control, accountability and democracy. 0.5% growth risk per year … Cheap as chips.

  11. Posted August 24, 2018 at 7:15 am | Permalink

    It seems that what he is arguing is the short term savings of WTO – the £39bn etc – will over time be outweighed by lower tax receipts as a result of a smaller economy. But as Patrick Minford pointed out in his criticism of the Treasury’s original projections, that of course depends on the assumptions. If you pursue free trade on a global basis, then in the opinion of economists such as Minford, Roger Bootle etc, the economy will be larger, not smaller, than it otherwise would have been. In other words change the assumptions, change the conclusion. Just like any other computer model eg of a business or project. At the very least MPs should require the Treasury to release in full its model and assumptions in order can be subject to proper rigorous scrutiny.

    • Posted August 24, 2018 at 12:45 pm | Permalink

      It is “not realistic” to believe the UK can begin trading under World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules the day after Brexit in March, the head of the intergovernmental group has said.

      “I was a trade negotiator; I negotiated trade deals my whole life and I’m very realistic about how fast you can go with those deals.” WTO director-general Roberto Azevêdo told the BBC’s Today programme.

      “The moment that other countries begin to sense an opportunity to increase their market share or increase a quota here or there, they are going to go for that.

      • Posted August 24, 2018 at 9:16 pm | Permalink

        Acorn, There is no “begin” about it. We already trade globally with the WTO system for nearly 60% of our exports. And no, the RTAs and MRAs negotiated by the EU on our behalf do not alter the fact that it is the comprehensive WTO system that we use for the RoW, and could use tomorrow for our exports to Germany or Portugal.

        • Posted August 25, 2018 at 8:52 am | Permalink

          You really should read “Would British trade thrive on WTO terms? Absolutely not Brexiteer arguments on free trade are riddled with basic misunderstandings” . Google it

          • Posted August 25, 2018 at 8:10 pm | Permalink

            Written by a remain supporter?

        • Posted August 25, 2018 at 11:54 am | Permalink

          No we don’t! The majority of our non-EU export trade are under EU trade deals with third countries. There is no guarantee that any of these can be rolled-over post Brexit for most contain EU specific articles which will not be applicable.

          Google “EU Treaties database” and have a look around. Try some of what you consider important countries (e.g. USA, China, Japan).

          • Posted August 28, 2018 at 6:19 pm | Permalink

            John O’Leary

            Oh dear , you dont know that the EU trades with its biggest market USA under WTO rules , and as a member of WTO CURRENTLY trading under WTO rules with the USA we are perfectly entitled to carry on.

            I love that you give 3 examples of EU trade agreements the two biggest by far are both wrong. The EU does not have a trade agreement with the US or China. You obviously didn’t read your own link

      • Posted August 24, 2018 at 9:43 pm | Permalink

        Australia negotiate their trade deals in <18 months.

      • Posted August 25, 2018 at 7:55 am | Permalink

        As a trade negotiator he should also know that where there is the political will much can be done on a provisional basis.

        As the example I offered before, Croatia joined the EU more than five years ago and the necessary amendments to the EEA Agreement were sorted out by April 2014 and started to be applied on a provisional basis:

        http://www.efta.int/EEA/news/Croatia-joins-EEA-2750

        “Croatia joins the EEA”

        ” … Pending their entry into force, the above Agreement and one of the related agreements … will be applied on a provisional basis as of 12 April 2014 in accordance with an exchange of letters also signed today … ”

        More than four years later and as far as I can tell those amendments still have not been fully ratified, and you can actually see that in the right hand panel here:

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Economic_Area

        where Croatia is shown as “EU member state provisionally applying the EEA agreement”, rather than as “EU and EEA member state”.

        Nobody is much bothered by this, as far as I can tell.

      • Posted August 25, 2018 at 1:34 pm | Permalink

        acorn

        The average WTO trade deal takes 14 months

        We are ALREADY trading under WTO rules

        • Posted August 25, 2018 at 8:41 pm | Permalink

          Libertarian,

          So what happens in the interim 14 months or if it takes longer/ more fake news

          • Posted August 26, 2018 at 10:25 am | Permalink

            Trade carries on.

          • Posted August 28, 2018 at 6:23 pm | Permalink

            hans

            Let me help you with some of the business basics. We carry on trading just like we have for 100’s of years. How many more times do you need to be told. Trade happens between buyers and sellers. We can sell things to anyone ( except North Korea etc) and anyone can buy from us. You do not need an intergovernmental agreement of any kind in order to sell stuff to a customer . Doh.

  12. Posted August 24, 2018 at 7:20 am | Permalink

    He’s become the Minister for Silly Forecasts

  13. Posted August 24, 2018 at 7:22 am | Permalink

    It must be very reassuring for Brussels to have both parties in the negotiations sitting on the same side of the table.
    When is this economically incompetent going to be removed.

  14. Posted August 24, 2018 at 7:22 am | Permalink

    Apart from anything else, does Mr Hammond think that his scaremongering will help the UK’s negotiating position?

    Or is he batting for the other side?

  15. Posted August 24, 2018 at 7:30 am | Permalink

    I believe this is the first time in nearly 50 years of my interest in politics that the term ‘impeachment’ hovers seductively in the nethermost regions of my mind.

  16. Posted August 24, 2018 at 7:39 am | Permalink

    Congratulations to Moggy for his doggy comment concerning our foolish Chancellor.

  17. Posted August 24, 2018 at 7:44 am | Permalink

    The Chancellor has to deal with reality unlike the Brexiters who favour the realm of fantasy.

    Unless the UK tries to emulate North Korea, there will be a deal between the UK and the EU. It’s a consequence of geography.

    So if the UK does not pay now, it will pay the £39bn then because you can be sure that full payment of what the UK owe the EU and has already foolishly acknowledged to pay will be the top item on the EU’s agenda.

    It is therefore not a matter of if but rather of when and the only thing left to discuss is how bad will the deal be.

    • Posted August 24, 2018 at 11:45 am | Permalink

      You are not factoring in

      “In accordance with the principle that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed, individual items cannot be settled separately.”

      and that was straight from the mouth of the EU and works both ways…

      http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2017/04/29/euco-brexit-guidelines/

    • Posted August 24, 2018 at 11:57 am | Permalink

      The UK owe the EU NOTHING. If anything they owe us if you take 40 years of net contributions into account. But don’t worry, May is on your side and it looks like she is determined to hand over our hard earned cash no matter what, even if we get a rotten deal which is what we’ll certainly get is she is allowed to continue in office.

    • Posted August 24, 2018 at 2:15 pm | Permalink

      Tabulazero

      Business may be a matter of close geography for those of you who still dwell in 1952 , but here in the 21st century in an economy that is 80% services geography has no meaning what so ever

      • Posted August 25, 2018 at 8:42 pm | Permalink

        NO for goods across borders it is still very relevant as is often the case, so Tabulazero does have a good point for the remainder

        • Posted August 28, 2018 at 6:30 pm | Permalink

          hans

          As we already sell 56% of our goods OUTSIDE the EU , so geography isn’t much of a hinderence there either. Our biggest single market is USA which is 3,000 miles away . Talking of geography Blue Sea Seafoods of Cornwall spend less shipping their produce to China by boat than it costs to ship to London by train. Tell me again about geography

    • Posted August 24, 2018 at 3:36 pm | Permalink

      Why should the UK bail Eurocrats out of their pension mess?

      We paid them, they spent the pension money and didn’t invest it.

    • Posted August 24, 2018 at 5:04 pm | Permalink

      The EU is rapidly declining, in trade terms, on the world stage. Our exit will only accelerate that decline. The EU commission is putting personal politics before the economic needs of the individual member states. The world markets will show them the error of their ways.

      • Posted August 25, 2018 at 6:23 am | Permalink

        The Commission has the full backing of the Member States. None of them have any intention to let the English have their cake and eat it at their expense.

        • Posted August 25, 2018 at 8:13 pm | Permalink

          There are already European nations calling for a deal to be done.
          There are some sound voices in member states.
          I hope the unelected commission will listen.

        • Posted August 28, 2018 at 6:31 pm | Permalink

          tabulazero

          What is this cake you think we want?

    • Posted August 24, 2018 at 9:26 pm | Permalink

      Tabulazero, A bi-lateral trade deal between the UK and the EU is certainly not necessary for the UK. As we trade with the USA under the WTO system, so we can trade with the USE in the same way. Why are you Remains so obsessed by the EU? It’s not necessary and it’s not wanted. The EU is just the latest useless ideology sold to gullible Europeans who always seem prone to believe the latest double-utopia salesman.

      • Posted August 25, 2018 at 6:17 am | Permalink

        The UK does not trade with the US on pure WTO terms. It trades with the US under a whole web of Mutual Recognition Agreements (MRA) the EU has negotiated with the US. These MRAs greatly facilitate trade and the U.K. will lose them once it leaves the EU.

        None of the U.K. peers or major export markets trade on pure WTO terms.

        • Posted August 25, 2018 at 8:15 pm | Permalink

          Yet trade carries on even without these deals you talk about.
          During the last decades Canada traded with Europe whilst a deal was being negotiated.

        • Posted August 28, 2018 at 6:35 pm | Permalink

          Tabulazero

          That would be Mutual Recognition Agreements ( MRA’s) As recognised by the WTO

          Trade happens between buyers and sellers , not governments.

      • Posted August 25, 2018 at 8:43 pm | Permalink

        Nick C

        More fake news and no facts

        • Posted August 28, 2018 at 6:33 pm | Permalink

          hans

          Rude and not for the first time totally wrong. It is a FACT That the EU and US trade under WTO rules

  18. Posted August 24, 2018 at 7:59 am | Permalink

    PH is not being helpful to anybody. If he opposes government policy or wishes to stress the risks of government policy he should leave government to do so.

    In government he is an irritation.

    • Posted August 24, 2018 at 5:28 pm | Permalink

      An appalling chancellor and electoral liability too.

  19. Posted August 24, 2018 at 8:04 am | Permalink

    The Chancellor and Treasury must surely be given credit for their ability to foresee 15 years into the future. But wait! What happened to their previous forecasts?

  20. Posted August 24, 2018 at 8:05 am | Permalink

    Instead we could divide the 39B up and give to every person in the land.. 600- each

    • Posted August 24, 2018 at 11:59 am | Permalink

      Nah don’t be silly victor. Don’t you know Governments of all colours, this ‘Tory’ (???) one included, know how to spend our money far better than we do?

  21. Posted August 24, 2018 at 8:12 am | Permalink

    These are forecasts commissioned by Brexiteers who were in government. Steve Baker, David David etc. Inconvenient.

    You only find them silly now because they demonstrate how devastatingly expensive your bonkers project is for Britain.

    Now, admittedly, they are only forecasts – and forecasts are not always right. But forecasts are the best we have and you ignore them at your peril.

    It seems to me that, with the knowledge that we now have about how damaging Brexit is likely to be, if the Tories plough on regardless they will be committing an extra special kind of treachery.

    It is all but inevitable that Brexit ultimately ends with us all significantly poorer than we would have been – and with some of today’s most vocal Brexiteers in prison.

    • Posted August 24, 2018 at 11:39 am | Permalink

      But the forecasts are not knowledge. Knowledge is what is known….forecasts are of what is not known.

      Similar forecasts were Hillary would become POTUS, Remain would win the referendum, the UK would lose investment if it did not join the Euro. ..

      Nothing is more uncertain than prophesies……especially about the future….

      • Posted August 24, 2018 at 8:52 pm | Permalink

        Yes – but forecasts are just that. A forecast. It tells you what is most likely to happen. It does not mean that it will happen – it just means that, using the analysis available, this is the most likely outcome.

        Weather forecasters rarely get it completely right. But if they tell you it is going to be hot, sunny and 30 degrees then you can be pretty sure that it won’t snow. You may decide to take a ski jacket out with you anyway – but the chances are you won’t need it.

        And so it is with the Treasury forecasts. Are they 100% accurate? Probably not. Will we ever even be able to tell if they were right? Again, probably not. But should we be messing around with anything that even has the potential to make us 10% poorer? Hell no.

        And your polling analogy is wrong. Plenty of polls had Leave ahead in the run up to June 2016 – most, correctly, had the result with the margin of error. And polls predicted that Hillary Clinton would win the popular vote. Which she did convincingly.

        • Posted August 25, 2018 at 9:51 am | Permalink

          But you need to follow forecasters that tend to get it right.
          Previous Treasury forecasts can be seen to be wrong.
          Yet you still follow them.
          Just like Project Fear Mark 1 predictions can be seen not to have come true yet you still believe Project Fear Mark 2 predictions.
          If I predicted a 10% chance of rain and a 90% chance of sunshine would you cancel you day out and stay inside all day?

        • Posted August 25, 2018 at 12:58 pm | Permalink

          Andy, Brexit itself will not make us “10% poorer”. Only about 12% of UK GDP derives from our exports to the EU, so your claim is impossible unless you are proposing that all trade with the EU ceases.

          • Posted August 25, 2018 at 8:45 pm | Permalink

            NIck C
            I am really sorry but you do not get it, has to do with the confidence in the economy no the degree of trade with the EU.
            Why, is that necessary to explain?

          • Posted August 28, 2018 at 6:41 pm | Permalink

            hans

            Congratulations you win the most deluded post.

            I’m going to the pub to buy a beer based on confidence

    • Posted August 24, 2018 at 1:17 pm | Permalink

      Steve Baker was reproved for his criticism of the civil service over this.

    • Posted August 24, 2018 at 1:41 pm | Permalink

      The previous predictions of the Treasury have been proved wrong.
      Using the same methodology these predictions will also be proved wrong.

      • Posted August 24, 2018 at 5:01 pm | Permalink

        It is immaterial whether forecasts prove right or wrong. Government solemnly pledged to implement the referendum result. Parliament solemnly seconded that promise. Either they keep their word, or they break it.

        This is not a question of predictions. It is a question of honour.

        • Posted August 24, 2018 at 8:58 pm | Permalink

          I agree eeyore.

    • Posted August 24, 2018 at 2:19 pm | Permalink

      Andy

      Provide one shred of evidence for this totally discredited trope.

      Remind me how your last set of forecasts went

      Then remind me what the polls forecast the day before the referendum

      Hold on how will we be poorer , you’ve already told us we can’t fly anywhere, we can’t travel to Europe, we can’t buy food or medicine or cheese or German cars so what will we be spending money on that will make us poorer?

      • Posted August 25, 2018 at 6:54 am | Permalink

        Libertarian,

        We are already poorer by the much lower growth du to lack of confidence in the economy, so you do not have to wait for that. Actually 12 quarters in a row than the rest of the G7.

        • Posted August 28, 2018 at 6:44 pm | Permalink

          hans

          wages are rising ( slowly, because taxes are rising)

          tax revenues are rising

          the deficit is falling

          we have one of the lowest unemployment in EU

          We are creating new tech firms at the rate of 1 every 55 minutes

          Exports are rising

          FDI is rising

          we have 829,000 unfilled jobs

          Bloody help I can’t wait for us to rebuild confidence in the economy

    • Posted August 24, 2018 at 3:27 pm | Permalink

      Still waiting for those 500,000 job losses and an immediate recession in the year following a Leave vote. Any update on that Andy ? Bristol council analysed it yet ?

      • Posted August 25, 2018 at 8:47 pm | Permalink

        But we did go form the best performing economy in the G7 to the slowest in a very sort time and for very many quarters.

        What happened to the £350 million for the NHS more a week?

        • Posted August 28, 2018 at 6:48 pm | Permalink

          hans

          Thats got nothing do with the lie that we would lose 500,000 jobs.

          The City has also resolutely NOT moved to Frankfurt

          The government has already promised to spend more than £350m week on the NHS

          We are spending £2.4 billion per week on the NHS

    • Posted August 24, 2018 at 3:33 pm | Permalink

      Forecasts? With the greatest technological equipment in the world, space satellites beyond our ken, the weather forecast after a bit of nice summer was a few showers then back to the “heat wave”. Well, it a very wet heat wave here.
      I did in fact write a comment to JR of what the weather would be…a three-week advance weather cast. He didn’t publish it. I was spot on. I’m a Brexiteer!

    • Posted August 24, 2018 at 3:38 pm | Permalink

      So these forecasters.

      One of their recent predictions was that on a no vote, 500,000 people would lose their job. Immediately. On the vote, not after brexit.

      Why would you trust an organisation whose predictions were completely opposite to the reality.

      And that’s repeatedly.

      Why would you trust an organisation that leaves 11.5 trillion pounds of debts off the books, just being concerned about what’s owed to bankers.

    • Posted August 24, 2018 at 4:37 pm | Permalink

      Perhaps the time has come, Andy, to start posting daily words of wisdom telling us exactly WHY the EU is such a wonderful ‘organisation’ and why we are ”bonkers” to want to cut ourselves free of it.

      Tell is why your EU masters are the ones who should be running this country with their superior knowledge of law and economics that will benefit our unimportant (except in terms of its being a milch cow) country.

      Tell us why we should be grateful to be allowed to pour money into its coffers instead of using it for our own people.

      You should really spend time trying to bring us around to your way of ”thinking”, instead of spouting insults and attempting to denigrate well-read people who are far more clued up than you and your Facebook ”friends”. But you won’t will you? Or you can’t.

      (Do try to do this without reference to your own finances and whining about being ”made poorer” by Brexit. It gets tiresome.)

      • Posted August 24, 2018 at 8:56 pm | Permalink

        I have done this many times. It does not get published.

        • Posted August 25, 2018 at 1:37 pm | Permalink

          Andy

          Sorry but I dont believe you. Without your normal vile abuse etc just post one good reason that we need to be in the EU that can’t be achieved outside it ONE

          • Posted August 25, 2018 at 8:48 pm | Permalink

            libertarian

            Abuse of what kind personal abuse?

          • Posted August 28, 2018 at 6:50 pm | Permalink

            hans

            Have you never read any of Andy’s posts? Or are you just trying to be funny?

            Would you like a list of Andy’s personal abuse?

            You notice he never answered the question again. Bit like you hans you never answer the question either.

    • Posted August 24, 2018 at 4:40 pm | Permalink

      “It is all but inevitable that Brexit ultimately ends with us all significantly poorer than we would have been – and with some of today’s most vocal Brexiteers in prison”.
      Evidence, Andy and upon what charge would they be committed to prison, pray?

      • Posted August 24, 2018 at 9:45 pm | Permalink

        Martyn G, He has no evidence, or in the months gone by he would have given it. He is a troll with a fixed array of sentences, which he juggles with, decided by others.

        • Posted August 25, 2018 at 6:55 am | Permalink

          NickC,

          Who exactly are you taking about?

    • Posted August 24, 2018 at 8:59 pm | Permalink

      @Andy, a comment on another day, you postponed our downfall by 10 years, now you say “ends with us all significantly poorer than we would have been ” meaning we will be richer than now, which is a less than a subtle change to complete and utter disaster which you insisted at first.
      Slowly but slowly you are coming to the conclusion you were wrong, are wrong and now you are arguing whether you will be wrong. Man, you are just plain WRONG!

  22. Posted August 24, 2018 at 8:12 am | Permalink

    Hammond is a proven tosser when it comes to fiscal manamebt and taxation. He should have been sacked after his abysmal budget to fleece the self employed, to fleece adult social care. Anyone who suggests giving away £100 billion for a trade deficit Off£80 billion needs their head Examined! There are countries who would bite our hands off for the business, not alone a group who has mass unemployment, basket case economies, with large parts of their agriculture products relying on British consumption! Anyone would think by this govt and dopey chancellor the position was the other way around!

    UK must pay £100 billion to talk about a £80 billion trade deficit! With countries like Italy, Ireland and Spain being severely hit. Is May and Hammond effing mad? No withdrawal agreement, no chequers plan. Leave and work out a trade deal afterwards. No security or intelligence for nothing, exchange information on a case by case basis. Give them nothing unless we get something in return.

    • Posted August 24, 2018 at 2:07 pm | Permalink

      Stockholm syndrome by the Tory remainiacs/federalists.

  23. Posted August 24, 2018 at 8:18 am | Permalink

    Dr. Redwood,
    Today programme had David Lidington waffling away trying to defend the indefensible and claiming, the whole Government is working hard to make the Chequers White Paper a success. They clearly think the Brexiteers will break or don’t need your votes.

    Your voices need to be louder. The future of our nation is at stake.

  24. Posted August 24, 2018 at 8:19 am | Permalink

    Well said Sir

  25. Posted August 24, 2018 at 8:19 am | Permalink

    JR,

    Your proposed WTO deal will also give us less growth according to the Treasury, so the saved £39 billion , is actually less than we lose with going for no-deal. So your proposed boost with the so-called saving does not seem particularly realistic.

    Or does your economic models look so much different than the Treasury, OECD, IMF and others

    Reply No economic model can predict UK output in 15 years time. The Chancellor’s statement was ludicrous. Practically everything will have changed by 2033, and our output will depend on who has been in government, what policies we have followed, how technology has developed, what the state of the world economy is etc

    • Posted August 24, 2018 at 2:27 pm | Permalink

      hans

      Even if we remained in the EU you, me no-one has any idea what the economy will be like in 15 years time.

      Oh and I went to a meeting with some folks from the BoE and the Treasury in 2013 . I presented them with data on unemployment. When I said it would fall below 7% they all laughed at me , 9 months later it was 6% and its now 4% I’m afraid the organisations you mention have less success at forecasting than Mystic Meg

      You are also very confused there is no such thing as no deal. Its either a deal with the EU or WTO.

      • Posted August 25, 2018 at 6:56 am | Permalink

        Libertarian,

        Thank you for your precision. I do not think the WTO solution is a deal at all.

        • Posted August 25, 2018 at 8:21 pm | Permalink

          Over 90% of world trade carries on using WTO’s system.
          Yet you continue to believe it cannot work.

          • Posted August 25, 2018 at 8:50 pm | Permalink

            I did not say it would not work but what I have asid it will take much more than just a simple switch which most of you seem to argue on this site, which is not the case as it ahs been confirmed yesterday by the head of the WTO

          • Posted August 26, 2018 at 7:57 am | Permalink

            Now you have moved your argument to agree the WTO does work OK for over 90% of world trade but the UK will find it difficult to agree new arrangements with countries we already trade with under EU arrangements.
            Despite many of those countries saying they want trade with the UK to carry on uninterrupted.

    • Posted August 24, 2018 at 7:15 pm | Permalink

      The UK is the largest net loser from the Single Market. Trade in the Single Market costs the UK a deficit of just under £100bn per year The UK is the biggest net loser from trade in the Single Market, out of the 28 member states.
      The EU has been ripping us off for years. Britain will prosper free of the EU.
      The Treasury, OECD, IMF and others have globalist Remainer axes to grind and should be disregarded.

    • Posted August 24, 2018 at 9:52 pm | Permalink

      Hans, You clearly have no experience of trade or business. The EU (your evident boss) wouldn’t be making such a fuss about our WTO deal if it really was as unrealistic as you imagine.

      • Posted August 25, 2018 at 6:58 am | Permalink

        NickC.

        I will for the sake of mine and your good mood not begin to tell you how much you do not understand with the sentence you have just written

  26. Posted August 24, 2018 at 8:20 am | Permalink

    Government ministers and departments are completely happy to lie about Brexit to further their own interests. They have proved it over and over. This is the calibre of people we have running our economy. No wonder we are so regularly betrayed.

  27. Posted August 24, 2018 at 8:28 am | Permalink

    We’ll have 39B more to spend?- No we won’t..they are going to screw us- one way or the other

    Just wondering why some persist with this silly line of thinking that we can get away without paying- We were part of it for 45 years and now we want to leave, so we have to settle the account, and it’s nothing to do with legal opinion or UKIP or tory party politics but. more like the Treaty of Versailles rules- now you see- reality starting to bite..not very nice is it?

    • Posted August 24, 2018 at 12:27 pm | Permalink

      Settle what account ?
      Have we seen an audited list of what we owe the EU and what the EU owes us ?
      When I worked in finance there were 2 sides to a balance sheet and 2 sides to a profit and loss account.

    • Posted August 24, 2018 at 1:20 pm | Permalink

      You mean the reality of what people like you have done to this country over the past forty five years.

    • Posted August 24, 2018 at 2:29 pm | Permalink

      FrankG

      Oh if you want to apply those rules, you better also start to add up the UK share of EU assets that will have to be repaid to us. Reality is a bit of pain isn’t it

    • Posted August 24, 2018 at 5:22 pm | Permalink

      “Settle the account”

      What on earth do you mean ?

      We have been net contributors to the EU budget for decades when most countries are net recipients.

      Whilst at the same time we have an £80bn PER YEAR trading deficit with the EU and massive immigration from the EU caused partly as a result of very high levels of unemployment in the Eurozone.

      And the EU has never published an exit account because Article 50 doesn’t require any money to be paid by the exiting state.

    • Posted August 24, 2018 at 9:56 pm | Permalink

      FrankG, What the EU owes us in assets offset against what we owe the EU for promises made under the MFF cancel out approximately. The £39bn is a bribe.

      • Posted August 25, 2018 at 6:59 am | Permalink

        NickC

        Can we please see the statistics on that particular calculation?

  28. Posted August 24, 2018 at 8:30 am | Permalink

    He and Carney cannot predict things very well at all. Not even for a month or two, let alone for 15 years time. Anyway to predict 15 year time one would need to know when the appalling May and Hammond will finally be evicted, then if we are to get a sensible Chancellor and PM or if we will have to suffer the appalling Hammond and Mc Donnall/SNP disaster in let’s become Venezuela mode. Or indeed countless other variables.

    Even a competent chancellor could not predict 15 years, far too many unknown variables. Certainly an economic ignoramous has no chance. Just May & Hammond resigning would be a massive boost to confidence and the economy.

    My guess is that the hapless May and Hammond are far, far more likely to lead to a Corbyn disaster than a sensible Tory government with sensible low tax policies. The sooner the better please.

    • Posted August 24, 2018 at 8:33 am | Permalink

      So dim is Hammond that he thinks taxing landlords on profits they have not even made, ratting on the IHT promise and having stamp duty at up to 15% is a great economic and plan! It is also electorally likely to be a complete disaster too.

  29. Posted August 24, 2018 at 8:33 am | Permalink

    How much longer is this charade going to continue? It’s as clear as day that every effort is being put into scaring people to stay in the EU. The broadcast media is in full propaganda mode in support. The consequences of this contempt for the result of the referendum are incalculable but very dangerous.

    • Posted August 24, 2018 at 2:30 pm | Permalink

      Brian

      Absolutely correct and currently the Leaver side seems content to let those two (people ed) Farage and Banks manage the narrative for Leave.

      When does the fightback start ?

      • Posted August 25, 2018 at 7:00 am | Permalink

        Libertarian

        Well written

  30. Posted August 24, 2018 at 8:40 am | Permalink

    This is a CONSERVATIVE government , Conservative

    Every week a new tax

    bedroom tax, dementia tax, plastic tax, Amazon tax on and on. Since 2008 the government has introduced 8 EIGHT new taxes . More red tape not less

    Since 2010 1.3 million new small businesses have been started , SME’s are responsible for the boom in jobs, 16 million employed by SME’s and growing yet this CONSERVATIVE government continues to attack small business. They are obsessed with doing any amount of damage as long as we can stay in the EU

    There was a 21% swing to Labour in a Midlands council election in a totally safe Tory ward last night. How many more signals does the Tory party need to wake up and see they are walking into oblivion ?

    STOP playing politics and start to listen to the people

    • Posted August 24, 2018 at 12:12 pm | Permalink

      Of course there has to be new taxes – There are many more arriving than is admitted to. Not only do we have to work/pay to keep the roof over our own heads, we have to work/pay to keep the roofs over their’s as well. And their NHS. And their benefits. And their kid’s schooling. And all the translators. We are seeing constant cuts to council services. There is a reason.

    • Posted August 24, 2018 at 2:11 pm | Permalink

      May doesn’t realise she has two ears and one mouth so should listen twice as much. The electorate have spoken. We don’t want Chequers BRINO nonsense. It has been blown out of the water. I wrote to her Chairman in Maidstone explaining the strength of feeling in the Country.
      She needs to deliver or call an election so we can replace remainiacs.

  31. Posted August 24, 2018 at 8:54 am | Permalink

    Whenever I have heard Hammond speak on the £39 bn he says that this is the sum due to the EU for budgetary commitments made by us while members and that morally we are due to pay what we have already agreed.

    Comment ?

    • Posted August 24, 2018 at 1:06 pm | Permalink

      Morally is not the same as legally!

      A point made frequently by our host and not stressed enough by others.

    • Posted August 24, 2018 at 2:04 pm | Permalink

      MoK, since when does morally mean legally?

      • Posted August 24, 2018 at 5:43 pm | Permalink

        And since when do we seek morality lessons from politicians? Better take flying lessons from Icarus, or King Herod’s childcare course.

        If Mr Hammond thinks it moral to appease his conscience with someone else’s £39bn, he badly needs morality lessons from us.

    • Posted August 24, 2018 at 2:10 pm | Permalink

      JR obviously has no idea about this, hence no comment.

      • Posted August 24, 2018 at 10:01 pm | Permalink

        Dennis, JR has already explicitly stated we do not owe the EU £39bn or anything like. Why should he keep repeating it just for you? Even if you disagree with what he has said it is a travesty and bad faith to claim that he hasn’t said anything about it.

    • Posted August 24, 2018 at 2:12 pm | Permalink

      He’s talking about the budget that ends in 2020. The EU could easily have amended by now as they have had over 2 years to do so and many commitments had not been agreed at the time of the referendum.

    • Posted August 24, 2018 at 3:29 pm | Permalink

      @Man of Kent

      “this is the sum due to the EU for budgetary commitments”

      Q: Why doesn’t he publish the figures?
      A: Because it wouldn’t stand up to scrutiny.

  32. Posted August 24, 2018 at 9:10 am | Permalink

    John, you said “We are leaving to take back control of our laws, our money and our borders. We are restoring our democracy. Why can’t you understand that?” my question is on things we can sort out now that are within our democratic responsibility why is your chancellor just throwing his hands up in the air and panicking, he is not stable or strong enough to stand up for our interests and is making himself look like a foolish weak person. He needs to tell us why he wants to give £39bn of our money to the EU with no agreement and protection for the UK in the interim period, what exactly is that bill for?

    • Posted August 24, 2018 at 7:42 pm | Permalink

      The answer is Tracy that Hammond works for the EU. Not directly but for the pro-Brussels, crony-corporatist big-businesses.

  33. Posted August 24, 2018 at 9:10 am | Permalink

    Your party is making such a dog’s breakfast of this that, clearly, we ought to just give up and Remain. Leaving on the terms ‘negotiated’ by this government would be 10 times worse than remaining. The government is providing endless ammunition for they hysterics who predict ‘catastrophe’ – and people are beginning to believe it. Time to give up. Disband Westminster and just hand everything over to Brussels.

    • Posted August 24, 2018 at 5:42 pm | Permalink

      That’s the plan by the remainers who have been in charge of the negotiations from the very beginning.

      We are witnessing a coup.

      The country voted to leave but a remain dominated Parliament is intending to seize power and ignore the referendum result by either agreeing for the country to become a vassal state/colony of the EU or to extend the leaving date indefinitely.

      • Posted August 24, 2018 at 10:06 pm | Permalink

        Original Richard, We are indeed witnessing a Remain coup. Not least because there is no time left to depose the blessed Theresa. Not many Brexit Conservative MPs are going to vote down her revolving-door Remain just to let Corbyn in. We’re stuffed I’m afraid. But of course it won’t end there. The May Remain will fester for decades impoverishing us all.

        • Posted August 25, 2018 at 3:49 pm | Permalink

          The Brexit supporting MPs know that even if they sent the required number of letters to the Chairman of the 1922 Committee (currently 48) to trigger a leadership election, a remain candidate, probably Mrs. May, would win again because there is a majority of remain Conservative MPs.

          Just as Mr. major did in 1995.

          If a coup does finally happen and the referendum result is ignored by Mrs. May and Parliament then the Brexiters only course of individual action will be to ensure that they never vote again for a remain supporting candidate in order to elect a Brexit supporting Parliament.

          At the same time I doubt that Mr. Corbyn would benefit as many voters would also not be voting for Corbyn supporting candidates.

  34. Posted August 24, 2018 at 9:27 am | Permalink

    An EU min wage earner pays £13.11 a week in tax. If they bring a wife and a couple of kids they cost £54,000 in state services a year.

    There are lots of EU migrants in that category.

    Now if we apply that EU rule about no recourse to public funds in full, forget 39 bn one off, we will have over 60 bn every year to use to reduce debts.

    After all those debts you won’t talk about John. That legacy of off the book accounting fiddles. That’s 209 bn a year.

    What could the people of the UK do if they had another 260 bn to invest?

    They can’t have it, because you won’t let them. What happened to explicit informed consent when it comes to the state?

    If its right for sexual matters, explicit informed consent matters for money too.

    What’s your view on consent?

    • Posted August 25, 2018 at 10:59 am | Permalink

      I think John’s consent was to leave the EU in 2016!!

  35. Posted August 24, 2018 at 9:36 am | Permalink

    Aaron Banks has been denied membership?

    Doesn’t that symbolise the very problem?

    Surely it is the prime minister and chancellor who should be denied membership of the Conservative Party?

    imho it is time to root out these entryists and return the Conservative Party to its roots.

    • Posted August 24, 2018 at 11:49 am | Permalink

      But the like of May and Hammond ARE the roots of the Conservative party. It has always been committed to preserving the interests of the few and relied on the support of those who feared Labour, whilst totally ignoring their interests.

    • Posted August 24, 2018 at 2:25 pm | Permalink

      If someone with strong monetary resource wanted to exert opposing influence via membership, they could achieve more by funding large numbers of covert like-minded individuals to act & vote according to instructions. Even a billionaire’s single vote might not outweigh that of a bona fide member.

    • Posted August 24, 2018 at 4:20 pm | Permalink

      Quite extraordinary that he and an associate appear to have been denied membership.
      Infra dig and all that still lives on.

    • Posted August 24, 2018 at 5:51 pm | Permalink

      The problem is that leavers voting keep for remain supporting candidates.

      This is the very definition of stupidity – that is, doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.

      • Posted August 24, 2018 at 7:53 pm | Permalink

        That is Original Richard because politicians tell lies. They, especially the Conservative Party and more especially the Conservative Party prime minister, say one thing but do another. Theresa’s proclamation that Brexit means Brexit actually means we will leave the EU but on the terms required by our (the Tory’s) pro-Brussels, crony-corporatist big-business sponsors.

        • Posted August 25, 2018 at 3:51 pm | Permalink

          Then stop voting for remain supporting candidates!

  36. Posted August 24, 2018 at 9:38 am | Permalink

    What does it say about collective responsibility when one Cabinet member makes a measured speech about the effects of a ‘No deal’ situation that is in effect contradicted within hours by another member? It looks to me like a put-up job between Mr Hammond and Nicky Morgan. How can Mrs May tolerate this sort of thing? Either she, or Hammond, or preferably both should now depart. If nothing happens we will know for sure that she supports Hammond and is determined to Remain.

    • Posted August 24, 2018 at 1:28 pm | Permalink

      Theresa May does not just tolerate it, she and her euromaniac sidekick Olly Robbins arrange it all together, just as they did when she was Home Secretary. One thing is clear to me: I consciously put aside my disbelief and trusted her and voted for her at the last general election, and now I will never again vote for any Tory candidate.

  37. Posted August 24, 2018 at 9:43 am | Permalink

    It seems to me, that all the “news” about no deal from the government, is May saying that we must have another referendum before we get out. She will say, “The situation is too dire so another referendum is necessary.” Get the signatures required and get rid of her, and take Hammond with her.

  38. Posted August 24, 2018 at 9:51 am | Permalink

    I have read that Treasury forecasts predict that the UK leaving the EU without a deal could wipe up to 10% of the country’s GDP over the next 15 years.

    We give away 10% of our GDP over 15 years as foreign aid.

    • Posted August 24, 2018 at 11:30 am | Permalink

      and a further 10% to Brussels. So independence costs us 0.75% p.a.. SO WHAT.
      Treasury forecasts are always wrong so why should this be right.

  39. Posted August 24, 2018 at 9:57 am | Permalink

    Hammond and Carney are both past their sale by date. Have they not notice anything they say or do we all take a big pinch of salt.

  40. Posted August 24, 2018 at 10:07 am | Permalink

    Jacob Rees-Mogg’s statement reported in today’s Telegraph is very apt. ”As a dog returneth to his vomit, so a fool returneth to his folly” By the same measure the Treasury must be akin to Battersea Dogs Home suffering from an outbreak of food poisoning.

    Throughout history we have had several dangerous Chancellors now this one is steadily climbing up that league table and should be removed before does any more damage to the future of this great country

    • Posted August 24, 2018 at 12:22 pm | Permalink

      It is outrageous that the Treasury has made forecasts relating to WTO outcome without publishing the relevant assumptions as to NTB’s.
      RIRO provides that a poor outcome follows logically from “unrealistic” assumptions.

      Why has there not been a call for ALL assumptions to be made explicit?

      In the event that the forecasts prove wide of the mark, those responsible from the Chancellor downwards should be held accountable.

      But, that surely is the reason that the assumptions are not made explicit.

  41. Posted August 24, 2018 at 10:27 am | Permalink

    But Sir, you make it sound like we would have that 39 bn stored somewhere. I wonder if the majority of your readers have understood that this payment will be paid over decades. Was it to 2064? Not as a lump sum.
    So I have difficulties to see where do we suddenly find these 39 bn GDP.

  42. Posted August 24, 2018 at 10:47 am | Permalink

    The disgracefully wrong forecasts you talk about comes from the brexit camp UKIP and right wing tory stalwarts like IDS..Gove..B Cash and of course Boris. While Dr Fox promised everything would be so easy..and yourself wete always on about taking back control..whatever that means for the ordinary joe soap? So enough of this silly talk and lets get on with living so that we have the least amount of disruption to our lives

    • Posted August 24, 2018 at 11:55 am | Permalink

      Taking back control means being able to vote out those who rule us. Tony Benn defined this as democracy, but in more eloquent terms.

      I doubt that many believed the promises made by either side in the Referendum.

    • Posted August 24, 2018 at 2:36 pm | Permalink

      Your user name is very apt

      The forecasts are from the UK Treasury and they are definitely remainers

      The ONLY thing making this difficult is the government is trying to Remain in the EU while pretending to negotiate.

      Heres what WE voted for and what the EU said

      We voted to leave totally, triggered A50 and leave within 2 years. The government should be working on untangling the tentacles of the EU , NOT trying to negotiate future trading relationships. Leave trade like everyone else including the EU under WTO rules, once we are out we can then start talking about future trading relationships .

  43. Posted August 24, 2018 at 10:52 am | Permalink

    It is now nearly 800 days since the UK as a whole voted to leave the EU

    Why have we not left?

    • Posted August 24, 2018 at 11:32 am | Permalink

      Because Traitor May and the majority of trough feeders in Westminster don’t want to.

      • Posted August 24, 2018 at 2:15 pm | Permalink

        That will change at the next election as the people have been betrayed by the Tory’s so who could ever trust them again?

      • Posted August 24, 2018 at 6:06 pm | Permalink

        There is no doubt that a big majority of the 17.4m leavers, and quite possibly a number of remainers who believe in democracy, will not be happy to see a remain led Conservative Party ignore the referendum result and this will have a massive electoral impact upon the Conservative Party.

    • Posted August 24, 2018 at 1:16 pm | Permalink

      Because the letter Mr Cameron said would be sent next day, took nearly two years for Mrs May to write!

    • Posted August 24, 2018 at 2:15 pm | Permalink

      because the UK voted to leave the EU while magically retaining all the good bits it liked about it.

      Now it has to deliver that which is impossible.

      • Posted August 24, 2018 at 5:19 pm | Permalink

        Wrong.
        We just expect to be treated similarly to all the other non EU nations that trade with the EU quite happily.

        • Posted August 24, 2018 at 9:32 pm | Permalink

          And we will be. That means a hard border.

          • Posted August 25, 2018 at 9:59 am | Permalink

            No delays at European or world borders today with goods moving in and out.

            When I travel it takes me little extra time to pass through non EU passport controls at ports and airports.
            Often the bigger delay is waiting for the luggage to arrive on the carousel after a flight.

          • Posted August 25, 2018 at 1:02 pm | Permalink

            Andy, You’ll have to take that up with the EU – the entity which will put up your “hard border”.

      • Posted August 24, 2018 at 5:46 pm | Permalink

        Tabulazero

        Go one, please I’ve been waiting for this Please list the good bits we want to retain

        • Posted August 24, 2018 at 9:39 pm | Permalink

          – Free movement – a wonderful right allowing even you to live, work and study bureaucracy free in more than 30 countries.
          – Frictionless trade in goods
          – Increasingly frictionless trade in a growing number of services
          – Passporting
          – Highest product standards
          – The strongest protections for consumers
          – No credit card supplements
          – Cheap airtravel
          – Free mobile roaming
          – War on plastic waste
          – Highest environmental standards
          – Commitment to expanding prosperity and democracy
          – Erasmus
          – Galileo
          – Shared regulation leading to less bureaucracy
          – EU citizens

          There’s a starter for you. All things you are stealing from your grandchildren, for some spurious reason which you haven’t figured out yet.

          • Posted August 25, 2018 at 10:15 am | Permalink

            Nearly all the things you list are things the EU copied off the UK and just rolled out across Europe.
            Contract Laws
            Consumer Protection laws
            Health and Safety laws at work
            Employment rights
            Consumer Protection laws
            Environmental protection laws e.g. climate change act
            We travelled worked and lived in Europe with little trouble before the EU came up with the concept of free movement.
            I’m not very impressed by your list.
            Neither are the millions currently unemployed throughout the Eurozone.

          • Posted August 25, 2018 at 1:18 pm | Permalink

            Andy, The EU, as a political invention, has no inherent “rights” of its own to give, they’ve all been stolen from the member nation.

            “Free” movement has been stolen from the citizens of the nation you impose yourself on without even asking them.

            It is perfectly possible to co-operate on programs like Galileo (we did it with the USA on the F35B) without being ruled by the other nation.

            Free trade is possible with mutual recognition; it doesn’t need harmonisation, or central rule.

            There is no demos in the EU, therefore no democracy. The EU parliament is a figleaf borrowed from the GDR. Making us vote until we get the “right” answer gives the game away.

            Good regulation is better if it is homegrown, for the rather obvious reasons that it is more likely to be proportionate and in our own interests. As well as under our control so we can get rid of it if necessary.

            The EU is a political ideology – a successor to Fascism and Communism, more benign (up to now) than both, obviously, but based on the same rotten totalitarianism.

          • Posted August 25, 2018 at 8:56 pm | Permalink

            Edward2

            Edward2

            Which laws were actually copied across Europe from the UK that were not already in existence at a much higher level in most of northern Europe like employment law, environmental laws, consumer protection laws and contract protection laws.

            There are lots of countries in Europe which have as low or lower unemployment than the UK. How does this illusion arise?

          • Posted August 26, 2018 at 8:05 am | Permalink

            I’ve listed a few in my original post.
            Employment laws started in the early part of the 20th century with the Truck Acts
            We had laws on unfair dismissal and maternity pay and paid holidays and contracts of employment and environmental laws like
            The Clean Air Act which came in the 1960s
            Well before the EU was even born.
            Contract Laws in the UK goes back centuries.
            Sale of Goods act was 1893

            Unemployment is no illusion for the millions in the Eurozone.

    • Posted August 24, 2018 at 4:29 pm | Permalink

      VotedOut..I’m quite sure we would have already left if only there was somewhere to go…problem is our political leaders are finding it difficult to deliver on the referendum promises made about that rosy future ahead..a lot of them just don’t see it now.

  44. Posted August 24, 2018 at 11:40 am | Permalink

    This Country must not be treated like a conglomeration of traders in the Stock exchange .

    • Posted August 25, 2018 at 12:06 am | Permalink

      @margaret
      Why? Stock Exchange trader workers earn a very good living. Working in a conglomeration they exchange information and earn even more. They are bright!

  45. Posted August 24, 2018 at 1:27 pm | Permalink

    Free female sanitary products available from colleges in Scotland, free prescriptions, free hospital car parking… Does the continual freebies in Scotland funded by the English taxpayer have to keep getting more and more ridiculous before something is done? Who is speaking for England?

    • Posted August 24, 2018 at 5:20 pm | Permalink

      Your question may be rhetorical but have you listened to John Denham’s lecture? If you listen carefully Mr Redwood sadly does not qualify as one who speaks for England, in spite of his claim to do so. As I understand it he is one of those who Prof. Denham considers a British Unionist/Imperialist with whom the Union comes first, and he will not put it at risk by campaigning for a true parliament for England, and all that will inevitably follow.

      This is an issue which will not go away.

    • Posted August 24, 2018 at 5:41 pm | Permalink

      And Scotland is opening a diplomatic outpost in Ottawa, I kid you not, on what planet is this good use of taxpayers money, and in any case international diplomacy is supposed to be reserved to the UK government surely

      Scottish government playing games while the UK government is clearly in meltdown

      • Posted August 24, 2018 at 9:12 pm | Permalink

        You’ll find the SNP heirarchy have relations in Canada and will get free air tickets to visit them….oh and be diplomatic about it of course

    • Posted August 25, 2018 at 8:40 pm | Permalink

      Iain, don’t forget the free baby boxes.

  46. Posted August 24, 2018 at 1:44 pm | Permalink

    This whole Brexit thing is fast developing into a complete farce and just a political game. TM gives us DR and then PH comes out with his twaddle. No doubt TM sanctioned it as she is quite obviously a complete bona fide remainer.

  47. Posted August 24, 2018 at 1:55 pm | Permalink

    The World Trade Organization has warned about potential disruption for the UK from a no-deal Brexit, saying that it is “very unlikely” that the government will have agreed tariffs and quotas with all other member countries by next March.

    Roberto Azevêdo, the head of the WTO, said on Friday that other countries would look to take advantage of the UK’s position, complicating or preventing agreement on some points.

    “The moment that other countries begin to sense an opportunity to increase the market share or increase the quota here or there, they’re going to go for that. There will be a lot of uncertainty here, there will be a lot of unpredictability,” he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.

    Reply All on track as far as I know

    How does your assurance that the current FTA the UK enjoy under the EU will get rolled look like, Mr Redwood ?

    • Posted August 24, 2018 at 9:27 pm | Permalink

      I too would like an answer on this. Redwood says the agreements novate to us. Dr Fox and Mr Raab say this is untrue. More Redwood fairies and unicorns?

      Reply They will novate. Name a country that says ti wishes to cancel them

    • Posted August 24, 2018 at 10:16 pm | Permalink

      Tabulazero, What, you mean the FTA that the EU “enjoys” with the Pitcairn Islands?

      • Posted August 25, 2018 at 7:03 am | Permalink

        NickC

        Even you know better than that

      • Posted August 25, 2018 at 9:00 pm | Permalink

        NickC

        Comparing the EU to totalitarian ideologies like Communism and fascism just makes your contribution look completely like fake news with no credibility

    • Posted August 25, 2018 at 8:28 am | Permalink

      Did you ever notice that the EU’s schedules were not being immediately updated in line with its successive enlargements?

      https://www.ictsd.org/opinion/nothing-simple-about-uk-regaining-wto-status-post-brexit

      “We don’t know what most of the EU’s current commitments in the WTO are … The only confirmed commitments on tariffs, quotas, and farm subsidies are from before 2004 when the EU had 15 member states … ”

      So what have been the practical consequences of these technical irregularities?

  48. Posted August 24, 2018 at 1:57 pm | Permalink

    Why would we want to pay the EU £39 Billions so that they can access our more lucrative market?
    Our consistent EU Trade Deficit currently runs at £80 Billions per year. It sounds more than crazy or worse than incompetent to actually pay them to sell us their products.
    Nowhere else in the world does this occur and for good reason. For it is the most insane business practice ever developed. But that is just the mad, mad, maddening world of the European Union, AKA EUSSR.

  49. Posted August 24, 2018 at 2:53 pm | Permalink

    It strikes me that the wrong question was asked at the time of the referendum..instead we should have been asked- do you want the Empire back? because that’s what it boils down towith all of this chatter about taking back control..think about it

    • Posted August 24, 2018 at 10:18 pm | Permalink

      Notachance, No, we don’t want the EU empire back, thank you very much. We want to Leave the EU empire.

    • Posted August 25, 2018 at 8:30 am | Permalink

      I won’t waste even a second thinking about your rubbish, I will give some thought as to why our host seems to prefer to publish such timewasting rubbish …

    • Posted August 25, 2018 at 10:43 am | Permalink

      Hello! I think you will find we left the “Empire” behind” during the 20th Century. They ALL wanted Independence from Britain and they were given it with our blessing.
      All we want for ourselves now, is OUR own Independence so what is so wrong about that?
      BTW the old Empire AKA ‘The Commonwealth’ is much larger than the EU and is outpacing its GDP growth. The EU is falling behind the rest of the world in growth and no wonder with its ancient USSR-style economic policies and its outmoded protectionist trade principles.

  50. Posted August 24, 2018 at 3:20 pm | Permalink

    This 39bn. We don’t actually have it do we. It is 39bn of borrowing. So if we don’t have to pay it then it’s not there to “spend” on anything, it just means we have lower debt. I mean even if we borrow 39bn and give it to the EU then why not borrow another 39bn and spend it on other things ? That’s the logical position if you count borrowed money as available to spend on whatever you want. Odd really, Conservative policy used to be to try to reduce borrowing.

  51. Posted August 24, 2018 at 3:48 pm | Permalink

    Good afternoon.

    15 years ! I am amazed. So amazed in fact that the Treasury could not predict the financial crash of 2008.

    If I were the Chancellor I would keep the Treasury forecast quiet.

  52. Posted August 24, 2018 at 5:00 pm | Permalink

    If I were PM then Hammond would have been on the back benches months ago…

  53. Posted August 24, 2018 at 7:24 pm | Permalink

    Turkey allows certain Russian planes into NATO airspace as did Iceland years ago, fighters, to refuel on NATO aviation fuel, in the 1960s-1970s, check flight plans! Roger.
    Yes they did. Roger.

  54. Posted August 24, 2018 at 7:37 pm | Permalink

    Are they silly? How does gaining a reputation as a country that reneges on international obligations and the potential loss of £240 billion in export trade compensate for £39 billion withdrawal settlement?

    Reply We will not lose our trade and we have no obligation to pay them money after we leave

    • Posted August 24, 2018 at 10:24 pm | Permalink

      John O’Leary, The UK owes the EU some, and the EU owes us some. That just about balances out. So the £39bn is a bribe. But you are missing one of the main points – the £39bn is from our wealth, or our profit. The £240bn is turnover. The profit on that is around £24bn. And even that depends on us losing all trade with the EU. Is that what you’re claiming? The EU is that bad in your view?

  55. Posted August 24, 2018 at 7:55 pm | Permalink

    I’m just glad that the US and the UK share so much Intelligence. The EU lacks it

  56. Posted August 24, 2018 at 8:50 pm | Permalink

    Conservatives putting the plastic bag tax up I see. Nowadays the Conservatives have become the high tax virtue signalling party, wont get them elected though.

  57. Posted August 25, 2018 at 12:08 pm | Permalink

    The government appears to be planning for the UK to be more or less dependent on the EU for our energy. We already import nuclear power from France. Hinkley will never be built (this will be presented as a massive additional Brexit dividend). HS2 savings will also be presented as a massive Brexit dividend.

    However, national oil processing will be decimated, particularly after we no longer rely on plastics to the same extent.

    We will export all our heavy crude to the EU and they will process the diesel and use this to generate electricity which they will feed back to us at a premium. We will be totally dependent on this because we have intermittent wind and no solar to talk about.

    They will have us over a barrel as always intended. We will never be free of the EU after that.

  • About John Redwood


    John Redwood won a free place at Kent College, Canterbury, and graduated from Magdalen College Oxford. He is a Distinguished fellow of All Souls, Oxford. A businessman by background, he has set up an investment management business, was both executive and non executive chairman of a quoted industrial PLC, and chaired a manufacturing company with factories in Birmingham, Chicago, India and China. He is the MP for Wokingham, first elected in 1987.

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