Project Fear caricatures itself

The latest round of Project Fear stories are usually re runs of past versions of the same thing. This time they are often repeated in even shriller and more apocalyptic tones, as the clock ticks down to our exit in March 2019.

Let’s deal with a few of them:

1. They said ” The UK will lose the advantage of the EU policy removing roaming charges for use of mobiles around Europe.” This was often mentioned in the Referendum campaign as one of the few examples of a positive from the EU. This week the main mobile companies confirmed they will not be imposing new roaming charges when we leave! There is enough competition in the market to keep prices down. A company like Vodafone anyway offers free roaming for non EU countries like Norway and Turkey as well as Iceland, a country which cancelled its application to join the EU. It is always wise to check your contract, as the so called EU free roaming may well have a usage limit.

2. They said ” The trade deals the EU has with other countries around the world will cease for us when we leave”. Six countries have already confirmed in an international Agreement they will continue these more favourable terms with the UK after we have left. No country who has signed an EU trade deal has said it intends to cancel it for the UK.

3. They said “There will be delays and queues at the UK ports leading to food shortages”. The UK government has made clear it is not going to impose a new range of delaying checks and procedures at our ports to hold up food we wish to buy from the continent after we have left. Why would we want to do that?

4. They said “The NHS could run out of medicines and we need to stockpile before departure”. No EU pharmaceutical company that currently supplies the NHS has said it wishes to cancel its contract the day we leave the EU! They will be legally bound to carry on supplying us. The NHS and UK port authorities have not announced any new checks or delays they wish to impose on medicines approved here for use here and imported from the continent.

5. They said (Treasury and Bank of England) that we would have a recession in the winter after voting to leave, with 800,000 job losses and a house price collapse. None of this happened, with continued economic growth, record levels of employment and a stable house market.

6. The press say the Bank is now forecasting a 35% house price fall if we just leave without a Withdrawal Agreement. This has recently been denied by the Bank, which is relief, as there is no way just leaving the EU could lead to any such house price fall.

7. Some still say airlines will not be able to fly into London after we leave. The leading continental airlines are busy selling tickets for trips into the UK after March next year, and assure those buying the tickets they will be flying.

How much more of this nonsense do we have to listen to? When will more journalists push back on these absurd stories?

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134 Comments

  1. Lifelogic
    Posted September 16, 2018 at 5:35 am | Permalink

    How much more of this nonsense do we have to listen to? Well until we are rid of the daft, economically illiterate, rudderless, tax to death, interventionist, remainers May, Hammond and Carney it will surely just continue. They are clearly orchestrating it or nodding approval of it.

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted September 16, 2018 at 8:40 am | Permalink

      Yes, it has become blindingly obvious that some of the rising flood of anti-Brexit propaganda is coming directly from the government, more of it is being supplied and its publication is being choreographed by the government, and as mentioned months ago none it is being effectively rebutted by the government.

      Those of us who are still alive in thirty years may find out more when the cabinet papers should be officially released, rather than carefully selected contents being leaked with the unconstitutional sanction of the Prime Minister.

      This morning on BBC TV Theresa May told Nick Robinson:

      “You bide your time and you’re bloody difficult when the time is right”

      and I think we can deduce that in her zero integrity Machiavellian scheme the time was not right for honesty when she made her Lancaster House speech, she never meant a word of it, but it has since become right to stab us in the back.

      I would keep the word “bloody” but replace “difficult” with a variety of alternative adjectives, none of which could ever be construed as complimentary.

      • Hope
        Posted September 16, 2018 at 11:16 am | Permalink

        JR, this is a politically cowardly way of addressing comments in your blog today and your previous blogs over recent days. May is PM. Therefore she is responsible. It is in her gift to speak truthfully, act truthfully and deliver truthfully on th public mandate and vote. She is a liar. She has failed in every regard. Read your manifesto, not just on Brexit, read her Lancaster speech and following comments, look at her behaviour at the eleventh hour in December sneaking at night to see EU to collude over Irish border, look at the way she hid and delivered her betrayal of the electorate in her chequers proposal. Look at the way Carney this week and Hammond are delivering fear with her knowledge and connivance. We know this because she previously slapped down Boris for promoting govt policy to leave.

        Your govt and May is not fit for office. This includes economy and trying to trash it by Hammond and Carney, crime and disorder, prisons, industry, sneaky underhand policies of Snoopers charter, HMRC secret investigations, thought crime, masss immigration, Windrush scandal, loss of hundreds of thousands of illegal immigrants while May sanctions,vans calling for immigrants to go home! It is nothing short of shocking. Every day May remains in office every day yourchances as a party of ever getting elected again diminishes.

        Blog to the heart of the problem- May and her advisors.

        Reply Bizarre comment. I am seeking changes of policy in the areas you highlight and have said I do not support Chequers

        • Hope
          Posted September 16, 2018 at 4:00 pm | Permalink

          Not bizarre, you are putting party before national interest to oust May and call he out. May is not listening to any of you.

          You keep saying govt or they. Any leader, who had qualitilties of a leader which she does not, if they believed in Brexit would not tolerate any of the points you make if she delivered on her words in her Lancaster,speech and following,comments. After all May said you have to believe in Brexit to deliver Brexit! She will not even say it is good to leave! Your points should name May not some inanimate term. She is meant to be the leader of your party and leader of the govt. It is May’s betrayal of the country, your party, Brexit minister and team, voting public and the nation. Not govt or they, May.

          May has supported the reappointment of Carney, the day after he is back to project fear with Hammond. Why has she not dismissed both for failing to support govt policy to leave the EU?

          Back stabbing Gove talking rot today about any new PM could change chequers. This is theoretically the position but very unlikely. His two policies of agriculture and fishing are dire another change in badge with slight amendments! he has lost all credibility and integrity,a rounding leaving the EU. He ought to keep,quiet instead of e,barraging himself.

        • Dennis Zoff
          Posted September 16, 2018 at 4:36 pm | Permalink

          John, Hope is simply addressing the obvious and like us all, highly frustrated that this nefarious political anti-UK/Voters is allowed to continue.

          You are in this Government (unfortunately becoming tainted by its treachery, if in deed it succeeds), gallantly shouting from the sidelines agreed “but more substance is called for” and each day there are greater question marks regarding where exactly do Conservative MP Brexiteers allegiances lie?…..Remarks that are being made on more and more occasions about their Self interest; Advancement; Political security; Keeping one’s job with the accompanying nice financial pot that goes with a Governmental role?…integrity, honesty and believability is all, and at this time, thoroughly lost!

          I am guessing what Hope is really saying “Sniping at one’s own Government whilst remaining a member smacks of duplicity!”

          Should T. May win, all political babies (by association) will be thrown out with the bath water, regardless of their integrity or honesty.

          “You cannot make a revolution with silk gloves” Stalin

          Reply I am not a member of the government and receive no government salary!

          • Dennis Zoff
            Posted September 18, 2018 at 1:08 am | Permalink

            Reply to reply: Indeed, “Pay and expenses for MPs – UK Parliament”, which comes from the taxpayer, does it not?

            You are an MP in the Conservative party and currently, the Conservatives govern this country (allegedly) and therefore you are associated with its appalling performance (some would say). You may not be driving the Government agenda, but you are, or are not, part of the solution…if you choose to act directly? Hope’s point?

            You may have also noted I used the third person in the body of my comment, respectfully to exclude you directly.

        • Stred
          Posted September 16, 2018 at 5:57 pm | Permalink

          You forgot retrospective tax regulations to seize unpaid tax in very large sums from the self employed who were advised the scheme was legal and following court decisions against HMRC. Enthusiastically enforced by the ministers of the party of business.

      • John Hatfield
        Posted September 16, 2018 at 6:58 pm | Permalink

        I have a suspicion that when she made her Lancaster House speech she was being sincere.
        But I think that since then she has been got at by the powers that installed her in No. 10.

        • Lifelogic
          Posted September 17, 2018 at 7:06 pm | Permalink

          May, during the referendum, assured (or rather lied to) the nation that “we had control of our borders while in the EU by not being a member of Schengen”! Yet you think she was being “sincere” in her Lancaster House speech?

    • margaret howard
      Posted September 16, 2018 at 11:20 am | Permalink

      Lifelogic

      “How much more of this nonsense do we have to listen to?”

      The truth hurts. It’s still the truth however much you like to pretend otherwise. Maybe you would like to tell us what you believe to be the advantages Brexit will bring us?

      None?

      Reply Big boost to economy when we get to spend our own money on our own priorities to start with, restoration of our fishing industry, better farming policies, trade deals with other parts of the world etc

      • Lifelogic
        Posted September 16, 2018 at 4:39 pm | Permalink

        Plus opportunity to have huge deregulation, tax cuts, easy hire and fire, to opt for cheap reliable energy, to take only the immigrants who will significantly benefit the economy, to be nimble by having a government that acts mainly in the UK’s interests and can make fast adjustments as needed to legislation, we will need far fewer lawyers and bureaucrats too, the legal system can be far simpler with fewer court levels, we can make our own court decisions on “human rights” and the likes…….

        Put Britain (or UK) first, Britain First – as Trump might put it.

        Checkers alas kills nearly all these advantages of leaving.

        • Lifelogic
          Posted September 16, 2018 at 4:43 pm | Permalink

          No need for all those silly and expensive smart meters either, which also stem from the EU.

      • L Jones
        Posted September 16, 2018 at 5:07 pm | Permalink

        Perhaps you, Margaret would like to tell us what YOU believe to be the advantages that staying trapped within the EU would have brought us.

        Instead of criticising others, you could always try to win hearts and minds by extolling the virtues of your EU masters and their failing social experiment – but that was never the remainders’ way, was it?

      • libertarian
        Posted September 16, 2018 at 6:54 pm | Permalink

        margaret howard

        You have the bare faced cheek to post that, after you repeatedly posted a comment that was shown to be factually incorrect.

        First things first

        Tell me about the job losses, why are we going to lose jobs, in what industries and why 800,000?

        Here are just a few advantages to leaving

        1) Protect our world leading new digital industries from the insane EU internet shut down regulations

        2) Save a huge amount of taxpayers money that can be more effectively spent here

        3) Gain a level of democratic control that has been removed

        4) We can negotiate our own FTA on our own terms rather than wait for things like Italian tomato growers holding up Australian FTA by 10 years

        5) Recover our fishing industry

        6) Reduce food prices in the shops

        7) Set our own VAT rates on things like energy, sanitary products etc

        I’ve answered your question, now answer mine

        • Stred
          Posted September 17, 2018 at 6:31 am | Permalink

          We could also open a special zone where large numbers of itinerant British laptop workers, who have to compete with non-EU internet companies, can come home and work without complicated VAT and higher corporation tax. Government would gain the tax that Singapore and HK make.

      • John Hatfield
        Posted September 16, 2018 at 7:06 pm | Permalink

        And also Margaret, if you think that EU membership has any advantages for Britain.
        The UK is the largest net loser from the Single Market. Trade in the Single Market costs the UK a deficit of just under £100bn per year The UK is the biggest net loser from trade in the Single Market, out of the 28 member states.
        http://facts4eu.org/news_aug_b_2018.shtml#bot
        Apart from regaining our sovereignty and being able to trade with the rest of the world, saving all that money will be an enormous “advantage”.

  2. Lifelogic
    Posted September 16, 2018 at 5:36 am | Permalink

    Still some excellent news, I see that ‘Ruth Davidson rules out becoming next Tory leader’ (not that she ever had much chance). The last thing the party needs is another daft, misguided, tax to death, left wing, green crap, remainer to replace the current one.

    But also we had:- UK Police Officer Suspended for Using Term ‘Whiter Than White’
    What wonderful priorities the UK police have I thought is was about shirts and ‘the glows in UV light’ washing powders they sold buy it seems now it is a reaon to suspend and investigate someone (all at taxpayers expense one assumes).

    Plus we had Cresida Dick totally wasting police time making statements about Boris and hate crimes (is wasting police time not an offence?). She sounds far more like a leader of a police officer’s trade union and a second rate social worker than someone actually trying to serve the public by cutting serious & violent crimes or indeed doing anything very useful at all.

  3. Steve
    Posted September 16, 2018 at 6:07 am | Permalink

    Don’t know which is worse; the lies being told by project fear, or the insult in the fact that they think people are dumb enough to believe them.

    Either way attempting to strike fear in the minds of people with such baloney is a very cheap strategy. We are more astute than project fear assume, which is why they maintain regular and ever fanciful bull**** updates.

    I just view their prophecies as light entertainment, but you would think by now they’d realise it isn’t working.

    • L Jones
      Posted September 16, 2018 at 7:55 am | Permalink

      Project Fear perpetrators seem to have the Facebook clickers in thrall, though.

      I don’t know about ”journalists pushing back on these absurd stories” – what about a few MPs like our host here taking the time to refute them as they arise, and show them up for the absurdities they are?

    • cornishstu
      Posted September 16, 2018 at 8:03 am | Permalink

      The problem is there are still a lot of people who hear it on the bbc and think it’s therefore fact. There is very rarely any counter statements and when they do they are usually dismissed or ridiculed by another bbc expert. Hopefully there are enough of us to see thru the bull and propaganda.

  4. Ian wragg
    Posted September 16, 2018 at 6:13 am | Permalink

    Reading Peter Oborne and Juiet Samuels they seem to think Chequers Agreement will be voted through as it will be a confidence vote.
    Surely the Withdrawal Agreement and gets voted on first and that should be well and truly binned.
    That is the real surrender document.

    • acorn
      Posted September 16, 2018 at 8:55 am | Permalink

      Read Section 13 of the EU Withdrawal Act. http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2018/16/section/13/enacted

      The EU (Withdrawal Agreement) Bill, gets moved if “the negotiated withdrawal agreement and the framework for the future relationship have been approved by a resolution of the House of Commons on a motion moved by a Minister of the Crown”

      • Ian wragg
        Posted September 16, 2018 at 1:34 pm | Permalink

        I read it as the Commons and Lords have to vote on it.
        Perhaps John could clarify.

        • acorn
          Posted September 16, 2018 at 3:52 pm | Permalink

          It’s the “meaningful vote” Ian. Remember that the HoC specifically wanted such a thing. Most votes in the UK parliament are meaningless; because the Downing Street “executive” does not allow them to be anything else.

          It is a fact that Mrs May as UK Prime Minister, has considerably more executive powers than Donald Trump has, as US President. The US Congress can exercise considerable control over the actions of a US President.

          The UK Parliament has no such control over its “President” in Downing Street. That’s why former Lord Chancellor of the United Kingdom, Lord Hailsham, described, in 1976, the UK democracy to be an “elective dictatorship”.

          Realise also that the UK’s “President T. May” was elected by less than 0.1% of UK registered voters. The US President was elected by 46% of US registered voters.

    • Alison
      Posted September 16, 2018 at 9:20 am | Permalink

      If MPs vote through Chequers because it is a vote of confidence in Mrs May, then that is simply treachery to the nation. Chequers signs away sovereignty to a third party – laws & regulations on goods and ECJ. I would march them to the Tower. My only comfort is that their constituents would make sure they are not voted in again. I suppose they are gambling on Corbyn.

      • Alison
        Posted September 16, 2018 at 9:29 am | Permalink

        ‘they are gambling on Corbyn’ – that is, the MPs

  5. Mike Stallard
    Posted September 16, 2018 at 6:14 am | Permalink

    Before anyone comments, allow me to ask that they read the Advice to Stakeholders.

    • Mark B
      Posted September 16, 2018 at 8:34 am | Permalink

      Mike

      Link please

  6. Norman
    Posted September 16, 2018 at 6:14 am | Permalink

    The very nature of this campaign of disinformation should be enough to cause alarm bells to ring, and strengthen the Leave cause. All these informative articles of yours should be widely published.
    But the nagging doubts will remain for some – why would the Governor of the Bank of England make such misleading statements about a collapse in property prices – is he just being risk averse?
    Just as in America, its becoming apparent that EU-Britain has its own toxic ‘Deep State’!

  7. ML
    Posted September 16, 2018 at 6:25 am | Permalink

    For any Brexit doubters, I’d suggest some reading unlikely to be at the top of a must-read list for many JR blog readers: Yanis Varoufakis’ “And the weak suffer what they must”.

    It’s an inside look at the machinations of the EU by the left-wing, pro-EU economist and former Greek finance minister who believes only one British PM has ever understood the nature of the EU – Mrs T. How anyone can remain pro-EU after reading it is a mystery.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted September 16, 2018 at 10:42 am | Permalink

      How anyone honest can remain pro-EU at all, unless they are one of the rather few who are directly enriched by it (lawyers, bureaucrats, regulators, the BBC, some politicians, pushers of green crap, “consultants” on the latest daft EU policies and regulations…….) is beyond me.

      Especially as they are deliberately harming both the UK and the 27 with their absurdly obstructive Brexit negotiation stance.

    • Geoff not Hoon
      Posted September 16, 2018 at 1:49 pm | Permalink

      Excellent book. Lets hope his words of “the government overthrowing the people” doesn’t apply to us!

  8. eeyore
    Posted September 16, 2018 at 6:25 am | Permalink

    With diehard and unscrupulous Remainers in charge, Project Fear may well have self-fulfilling aspects. It must be expected that those who have been loudest in their forecasts of difficulties and defeat will do their best to make them happen.

    After Brexit there will undoubtedly be difficulties.We don’t know what, the future being unknowable, but they are out there – Rumsfeldian known unknowns. Some hysterical defeatist – possibly one of our pet Remainers here – will have predicted them and been right for once.

    He or she will claim prophet’s rights. Such people deserve our forebearance, and then a hard punch on the nose.

  9. Lifelogic
    Posted September 16, 2018 at 6:33 am | Permalink

    NHS to fund a disabled student to study in the USA for a four years at university with 24 hour care.

    The NHS spokesman said “it is not costing any more than if she were studying in this country”. This seems highly unlikely as medical care in the US is far more expensive and wages are generally higher too. Furthermore the tax these care workers pay will not be collected by HMRC but by the USA.

    This while thousands are dying every year due to NHS negligence that could be improved with just better organisation and fairly trivial sums of money.

    After all, as we know, the UK’s health service performed worse than just ‘average’ in the treatment of eight out of the 12 most common causes of death. They included deaths within 30 days of having a heart attack and within five years of being diagnosed with breast cancer, rectal cancer, colon cancer, pancreatic cancer and lung cancer.

    The NHS was also the third-poorest performer in cases where medical intervention should have prevented death, and had consistently higher death rates for babies at birth or just after (perinatal mortality), and in the month after birth (neonatal mortality).

    Do the NHS have no duty to spend money where it will give maximum benefit to patients? It seems not?

    • bigneil
      Posted September 16, 2018 at 10:41 am | Permalink

      Some years ago I read of an American drug dealer convicted here, who was on insulin from the NHS. He was to be deported after his sentence, but successfully fought the deportation because, back home in the USA he would be unemployable as he had a criminal record and with no wage, would be unable to afford the insulin. He was allowed to stay, presumably continue his criminal activities, while freeloading off the UK taxpayer. It’s only taxpayer’s money going to reward criminal behaviour after all, as usual. Keep throwing it away seems the chant from the elite.

      • L Jones
        Posted September 16, 2018 at 5:09 pm | Permalink

        They’re not ”elite”.

  10. sm
    Posted September 16, 2018 at 6:37 am | Permalink

    The media as a whole will not ‘push back on these absurd stories’ because they are addicted to melodrama, and any individuals or organisations that are politically motivated (in whatever direction) will know that it is far easier to provoke a reaction by encouraging wild bursts of adrenaline-fuelled anger rather than by offering reasoned analysis.

  11. Peter
    Posted September 16, 2018 at 6:44 am | Permalink

    ‘How much more of this nonsense do we have to listen to? When will more journalists push back on these absurd stories?’

    We have to listen to lots more. There are no new developments in the Brexit story so journalists recycle old favourites while we wait on real news.

    Furthermore, you see journalists explaining how wonderful Chequers is while most of their readership take the opposite view. Peter Obornein the Daily Mail is a notable example.

    • Peter Wood
      Posted September 16, 2018 at 7:16 am | Permalink

      Yes it is an indictment of our Brexiteer politicians that they cannot speak with one voice and produce an electable leader. If Mrs May is the best the Tory party can offer then perhaps it is dinosaur time!

  12. Helena
    Posted September 16, 2018 at 6:51 am | Permalink

    1. Iceland has not left the EU.
    2. The 6 countries explictly wrote into the agreement that it is not legally binding, and they may yet make further demands of the UK. 150+ countries have not even made a non-binding promise, nor will they until the UK does a deal with the EU.
    3. It is exports, not imports, that are the problem. Without a deal our exports will not be recognised in the EU. Economic disaster for our export trade.
    4. See 3.
    5. It is the hard work of the Governor of the bank of England since the referendum that has protected us. If we leave with no deal, then all this, and worse, will follow.
    6. If the Bank did not say this, what is your beef?
    7. Without a deal, no flights. That is the law. A deal will be done – but on the EU’s terms.

    How much more of your nonsense do we have to listen to? Please inform yourself better

    • Richard1
      Posted September 16, 2018 at 7:49 am | Permalink

      1. Iceland has suspended discussions on EU membership and remains outside
      2. Of course they aren’t legally binding, the U.K. is prevented from signing or even negotiating trade deals whilst an EU member, because in the EU trade policy is outsourced. No country has said it does not wish to novate its EU agreement to the U.K. & why would it?
      3. It is highly unlikely the EU will wish to start a trade war by blocking exports from the U.K., especially when it runs a huge trade surplus with the U.K. & would presumably face Retaliation. Such a blockade would also be illegal under WTO rules – and we keep hearing that the EU is a rules based system
      4. Ditto. Why would the EU blockade the export of medicines to the U.K. & on what grounds. This is clearly absurd
      5. We do not know the counter-factual, but the bank has tightened credit in some areas with adverse results over the last year as discussed here. Personally I think we should be gradually normalising interest rates as the US fed is doing. Mr Carney has been a vociferous remain supporter and has made some very silly forecasts of disaster which so far have proven false
      6. If the Bank did not say this it should have made a clear correction
      7. You are confusing a trade deal with other arrangements. There is no trade deal between the U.K. and the US yet it is possible to fly between the two countries.

      You repeatedly post bad tempered nonsense. You would do well to inform yourself properly and think before you press post. thanks.

      • Hope
        Posted September 16, 2018 at 11:21 am | Permalink

        Rich1, Well said.

    • Dave Andrews
      Posted September 16, 2018 at 8:21 am | Permalink

      Haven’t you got the message – Project Fear is the boy crying “wolf!”?
      The EU can’t refuse our exports without the UK taking reciprocal action. Sure the EU can survive in the long term, but the immediate effect is severe disruption to the EU businesses that right now depend on things the UK produces and UK consumers. I see Audi are still advertising their cars on TV, so they have no doubt trade will continue, as they haven’t withheld their investment on sales promotion.
      No flights without a deal is not the law, it’s EU rules at most. Rules, if such is the case, can be broken when expedient to do so.

    • L Jones
      Posted September 16, 2018 at 8:29 am | Permalink

      Helena – why is it that Remoaners cannot comment without insult? It seems that you all need such imprecations and rudeness to bolster a weak argument.

      Perhaps if you read our host’s words again, you’d see he didn’t say Iceland was in the EU.

      ”How much more … do we have to listen to?” Well, none, actually. Go back to Facebook – that’s much more your style, I’d guess. Project Fear is alive and well there.

    • Caterpillar
      Posted September 16, 2018 at 8:38 am | Permalink

      Helena,

      3. The ‘project fear’ has suggested imports will be queuing for more checks and that broad tariffs together will cause shortages, delays and price rises, Dr Redwood has indicated that the UK will not have these inward queues, moreover he has previously called for publication of the UK’s intended tariff schedule. In terms of exports, exports to the EU are only (about) 12% of UK GDP (goods and services, and not % of total economic activtiy). The UK’s largest service buyer is the US. Companies that are currently aligned to EU regulations and systems will undoubtedly see an effect in the short term if they have not prepared (partially the fault of government/civil service for not getting on with the referendum result immediately), companies that export to non-EU would ideally be freed from EU regulations/standards and be able to focus on target markets. Much on the supposed goods supply chain problem is already solved by technology, in terms of tariffs the Govt needs to clarify on what components (e.g. automotive) components will go to zero. This would allow supply chains to adapt.

    • Edward2
      Posted September 16, 2018 at 9:20 am | Permalink

      Sadly helena, it seems you have swallowed the propaganda hook line and sinker.

    • David Price
      Posted September 16, 2018 at 9:21 am | Permalink

      @Helena
      1. Iceland never joined the EU, it is in EFTA and EEA but withdrew it’s application to join the EU.
      2. I suggest the criterion is not that a UK deal is done with the EU but that the relationship is clear. Using WTO rules would be a clear basis.
      3. The knife cuts both ways, why should EU imports to the UK internal market be treated any differently than UK imports to the EU internal market?
      4. How can the EU legally prevent us importing goods?
      5. Rubbish
      6. You didn’t read JR’s comment did you – the issue is misreporting by the press.
      7. You didn’t read JR’s comment did you – how can the EU legally prevent aircraft landing in the UK?

    • Jagman84
      Posted September 16, 2018 at 9:23 am | Permalink

      1. Iceland are EEA & EFTA members, so are heavily influenced by the EU. They have never been an actual member of the EU.
      2. None can be legally binding until we leave in March. That’s the rules we have to abide by.
      3. We will have commonality of future standards with the EU via the Great Repeal Bill. Other non-EU nation’s products are fine, so why not ours
      4. See 3.
      5. Is a matter of opinion, not fact. I am not sure who he is working for at present.
      6. The bank has retracted such notions. It seems to be the work of “useful idiots” within the BOE. For the definition of a “useful idiot”, have a look in a mirror (not the newspaper).
      7. Aviation is controlled by International agreements, via the UN agency, ICAO. The EU like to think that they run everything but, fortunately, they do not!

      “How much more of your nonsense do we have to listen to? Please inform yourself better!”
      Maybe you should listen to your own advice now and again?

    • Woody
      Posted September 16, 2018 at 10:44 am | Permalink

      Iceland is a member of the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), a grouping of four non-EU European countries …. note the bit about iceland being a non eu country … so as your first point is incorrect then it is safe to say the rest of your diatribe is also rubbish.

    • Steve
      Posted September 16, 2018 at 4:52 pm | Permalink

      Helena

      “3. It is exports, not imports, that are the problem. Without a deal our exports will not be recognised in the EU. Economic disaster for our export trade.”

      We don’t need to trade with them anyway. Most of us who voted leave want nothing to do with Europe, primarily because we were born pre -EEC, so we know this country can do well without the EU.

      “1. Iceland has not left the EU.”

      Indeed that is true, but only because she was never in a position to leave. You work it out.

      “7. Without a deal, no flights. That is the law. A deal will be done – but on the EU’s terms.”

      Even if the EU / French cry babies did manage to prevent flights over Europe firstly THAT would be illegal, secondly any British government worth it’s salt would retaliate.

      “How much more of your nonsense do we have to listen to? Please inform yourself better”

      You were saying ?

    • Helen Smith
      Posted September 16, 2018 at 6:52 pm | Permalink

      There are few better informed than our host. On the other hand the fact that you are actually think, or more likely purport to think, that exporters in the EU will forgo profits from selling medicines to us, or that planes will cease to fly, or that the EU can discriminate against our exports which will meet every jot and tittle of their regs on day 1 of Brexit without breaching WTO MFN rules shows you are woefully ignorant of the EU.

  13. Mick
    Posted September 16, 2018 at 6:51 am | Permalink

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6171351/Blair-Major-Cleggs-mission-stop-Brexit-Former-pa.html
    Project fear still going strong with ( people ed) like these three stooges, do they honestly think that the 17.4 million and growing would just sit back and allow the referendum result to be overturn, these self interesting (people ed)should pack there bags and bugger off and go live in there beloved Europe, oh no they’ll not do that because they want the best of both worlds, JUST GO MUPPETS

  14. Richard1
    Posted September 16, 2018 at 7:02 am | Permalink

    Although the French Government has reportedly threatened to stop eurostar running for “years” and to turn back flights in mid air! This seems an extraordinary threat to make to a friendly allied country. Perhaps it’s best to just ignore such a silly threat, but it’s a terrible advert for EU membership, the last thing we should want is a political union with a country that makes such threats. I can hardly believe it. Perhaps it’s been mis-reported?

    • Bob
      Posted September 16, 2018 at 7:55 am | Permalink

      @Richard1
      The UK sold it’s stake in Eurostar to the French, so the French would be the ones to suffer if it stopped operating.

      Do the Remainers think that the French are stupid?

    • Legrand
      Posted September 16, 2018 at 8:30 am | Permalink

      You voted to leave the EU. You regard all international cooperation as an impediment to democracy practised at Westminster. You want to take back control. But you seem surprised when other countries say “well, OK, if you want to leave the club, that’s up to you, but you don’t get the benefits of the club any more”. You Brits took back control – so will the EU 27. Do you even know what it is you voted for?

      • Andy
        Posted September 16, 2018 at 11:37 am | Permalink

        What are you wittering on about ?? No one is against ‘International Cooperation’ – what we are against is the creation of a ‘United States of Europe’ which rides roughshod over our Democracy and Laws. We have voted to Leave a political construct we should never have joined in the first place. So perhaps you Continental Europeans should decide if you want friendly and warm relations with a neighbouring country or to declare War.

      • Ian wragg
        Posted September 16, 2018 at 1:40 pm | Permalink

        We know well and we don’t want to be a province in the United States of Europe.

      • Richard1
        Posted September 16, 2018 at 1:42 pm | Permalink

        You do not know which way I voted. But the referendum result was clear. À vote to Leave the EU was a vote against supra-national government not international cooperation. I don’t suppose this particular French minister was speaking for President Macron, but if she was our govt should request clarification. It’s very bizarre that remainers want a political union with countries and an institution prepared to behave in that way.

      • Woody
        Posted September 16, 2018 at 2:25 pm | Permalink

        And the benefits of being in the club are ? Not seeing any down side in leaving but I see freedom from suffocating self serving bureaucracy.

    • Steve
      Posted September 16, 2018 at 5:06 pm | Permalink

      Richard 1

      “Although the French Government has reportedly threatened to stop eurostar running for years”.

      Let them. It’ll save us having to block our end off.

      Why do we want a tunnel to a country that we’ve saved from tyranny, only for that country to turn on us time and time again.

      Fortunately I’m old enough to remember the french attacking British pensioners at calais, attacking British lorry drivers and burning sheep alive, all under the watchful eye of the gendarmes.

      Such a grateful and civilised people.

  15. Lifelogic
    Posted September 16, 2018 at 7:02 am | Permalink

    Theresa May on the news just now:- “This debate is not about my future, this debate is about the future of the people of the UK and the future of the United Kingdom.”

    It is indeed about the future of the United Kingdom. Is the UK going to be a vassal state of the EU and a socialist, taxed and regulated to death basket case as May/Hammond/Carney want (with Corbyn to follow) or not?

    That is why you have to go dear, you have a duff compass, just like Heath, Major, Cameron.

    • Fedupsoutherner
      Posted September 16, 2018 at 7:56 am | Permalink

      Brilliant posts today from yourself LL and JR.

  16. George Brooks
    Posted September 16, 2018 at 7:10 am | Permalink

    This is all fuelled by the printed media’s struggle for circulation and readership in a falling market and the broadcaster’s quest for ratings in the ever increasingly crowded airwaves.
    Editors and journalists alike don’t care about the validity of a statement, if it has the possibility of grabbing a headline, they use it.

    A very high proportion of those working in the media have absolutely no knowledge of life before the EU and wrongly assume that the only solution is to stay within it. As several Prime ministers have signed away our freedom over a series treaties we now have what may be our last chance to cut free and regain a top spot in today’s world.

    Life did not begin with the formation of the EU, it started to go down hill and it will continue to do so until it falls apart completely.

  17. agricola
    Posted September 16, 2018 at 7:15 am | Permalink

    Time is their enemy, anticipate a plague of rats.

  18. formula57
    Posted September 16, 2018 at 7:20 am | Permalink

    “When will more journalists push back on these absurd stories?” – there are so few journalists now that the huge numbers of infotainment industry operatives who have replaced them have a near clear run at passing on propaganda and fake news and otherwise advertising.

  19. Gary C
    Posted September 16, 2018 at 7:22 am | Permalink

    Re: ‘How much more of this nonsense do we have to listen to? When will more journalists push back on these absurd stories?’

    Much if not all of this nonsense would be squashed if TM was to stand up and say just how ridiculous these untruths are.

    So the big question is; Why does she not do so?

    She obviously does not wan’t to admit that Boris is right, she is not only prepared to submit to the EU she is willing to pay them for the pleasure of being our masters.

  20. DUNCAN
    Posted September 16, 2018 at 7:44 am | Permalink

    The trend of pro-EU liberal left (authoritarianism ed) that we have seen since Blair came to power and its continuation under various Tory PMs is directly responsible for the UK becoming more authoritarian than it’s ever been before.

    The use of propaganda to incite fear. The use of narrative to warp a people’s perceptions. The use of unsubstantiated statements to manipulate emotional responses. The use of gender, sexuality and race to slander those who refuse to submit to the pro-EU liberal left agenda.

    The UK’s next Tory PM must destroy this cult of identity politics that as infected all aspects of our politics, the British state, UK legislation and wider society

    We are seeing nothing less than a State authorised attack on our freedoms and liberties. On our divine right to express our views without fear or favour.

    If I was PM I would make it a criminal offence to ‘play the race, misogyny, homophobe and (religious ed)’ card against another British citizen. The invoking of Godwin’s Law to silence the opposition is one of the most sinister forms of politics I have seen in a generation

    And this PM as taken identity politics and the pandering to this form of politics to a whole new level.

    The politicisation of human relationships is destroying trust amongst us and affording the creation of a new form of power politics

    The EU’s attempts to play the race card against the Polish government for the temerity to take back control of its own judiciary is beyond belief. I cannot believe that the Poles are taking this interference on the chin. This is the ultimate slander

  21. justbecause
    Posted September 16, 2018 at 7:57 am | Permalink

    We are so near the end now it is hardly worthwhile commenting..so just sit back, relax, and watch how things unfold. Mrs May and government have it in their power to collapse government and go for a GE, thereby letting Corbyn in, or she can go for another peoples vote to clear the air. One thing for sure the EU side is not going to accept the chequers proposals in their present form as they would compromise their four Pillars and Freedoms neither are they going to deal with Boris the next wouldbe replacement PM so that leaves only departure without any deal – for sure. Few of these Project Fear things will come about in any case the same as the other Project Fear when we were warned before the referendum of the Turks 80 million and Middle Eastern starving peoples all heading for Britain..so let’s just sit back and wait and see.

  22. margaret
    Posted September 16, 2018 at 7:58 am | Permalink

    I really don’t want to enter in any argument except to ask .

    1) Who benefits from stirring trouble?

    2) Who benefits from pedantry and argument?

    3) Who puts arguments forward designed to cause friction ?

    4)Who Knows how to put positions and arguments forward designed to find the weak spot of workers ?
    5 ) Who knows how to compile text to create a bias.?

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted September 16, 2018 at 12:10 pm | Permalink

      Baroness Wheatcroft was open about it, back in August 2016:

      http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/opinions/a-rebellion-in-the-lords-brexit-article-50-referendum

      “With no constituents to fear and a conviction that remaining in the EU and helping it reform would be a much better option than plunging into the unknown, they would defy the whip, which cannot inflict the same pain as it does in the Commons. The Lords would be resoundingly “not content” and could remain a blockage to the legislation for up to one year.

      Much might change in that time. The EU might even concede that the UK was not the only country which needed to see some curbs on free movement and make changes. Then their lordships might argue that there was a good reason to call that second referendum and hope for a very different result.”

      Theresa May has been helping that along, while pretending the opposite.

      Reply The Lords allowed both the EU Withdrawal Act and the Article 50 Act to pass

      • Helen Smith
        Posted September 16, 2018 at 7:02 pm | Permalink

        The Lords are trying to overturn the Customs Bill by tacking amendments they cannot add to it to the Trade Bill. Their claim to just be ‘scrutinising’ bills has never looked so threadbare. They are clearly in cahoots with Remoaners in the HOC.

      • margaret
        Posted September 17, 2018 at 8:31 pm | Permalink

        Is it not the case by disallowing the EU Withdrawal Act and Article 50 their own position ,which would be against the referendum result ( and apparently was only advisory) would be untenable.

  23. Fedupsoutherner
    Posted September 16, 2018 at 8:05 am | Permalink

    I have become so fed up with these ridiculous stories of gloom and failure I don’t bother to listen anymore. I’d find out more from a fairy tale! Alot of what we hear is designed to frighten those who think the BBC is gospel in the hope that when we get the second referendum Blair and Cable so desperately want people will vote to stay. I would never want to be closely aligned to countries who wish to harm us and I can also see that this country is strong enough and determined enough to go it alone. It would be nice if May and Hammond could work with us instead of against us. For those of you that are concerned over the bull s**t you hear in the ‘news’ can I suggest you look back in history and see just what this nation is capable of when we all pull together?

    • Lifelogic
      Posted September 16, 2018 at 10:51 am | Permalink

      Exactly.

      I too would never want to be closely aligned to countries who wish to harm us (and indeed the 27). This country is strong enough to go it alone indeed will be far better placed if it does so. Expecially if it cuts taxes, regulations and the green crap very rapidly after exit and avoids Corbyn/SNP.

  24. Dave Andrews
    Posted September 16, 2018 at 8:28 am | Permalink

    I see Ed Davey on TV calling for a referendum on whether the UK accepts the deal or stays in the EU.
    Surely, the second referendum, if such should be called, would be on whether to leave with the deal, or leave without a deal? The question of leaving the EU has already been decided by the first referendum.
    The BBC presenter didn’t have the wit to challenge him.

    • miami.mode
      Posted September 16, 2018 at 1:48 pm | Permalink

      Poor or no challenges by most interviewers, Dave. As Mrs May has already written the letter triggering Article 50 it may well be legally impossible to remain in the EU with the same conditions e.g. Schengen, euro and rebate.

      These people are never challenged as to whether they have had any contact with EU officialdom to establish the viability of their wishes.

    • Stred
      Posted September 16, 2018 at 6:23 pm | Permalink

      The plot is to split the leave vote between ‘crashing out’, sell out or stay in. The 52% would then be in two halves and less than 48%. They have always planned to get the worst deal. This is why May had to stop Davis getting a good one.

  25. Mark B
    Posted September 16, 2018 at 8:31 am | Permalink

    Good morning

    But we are not leaving are we ? Everything will be agreed at the last minute and parliament will vote through the Withdrawal Agreement as their will be no alternative. EU-LITE/ Soft Remain it is.

  26. Iain Moore
    Posted September 16, 2018 at 8:41 am | Permalink

    I see Major, Blair and Clegg are trying to over turn Brexit, going behind the nation’s back and negotiating with Barnier, in the past this would have been seen as treason, but values seem to count for little these days.

    It worth taking a look at the democratic integrity of these three EU stooges.

    Major forced through Maastricht on a vote of confidence, the treaty that brought EU into being. He didn’t think us plebs should have a say in the creation of the political EU.

    Blair signed up to Nice, that removed whole tranches of vetoes that diminished our sovereignty , and promised us he wouldn’t sign up to an EU constitution, ratted on that, and ratted on the referendum he promised us on Lisbon.

    Clegg, promised us a referendum on Lisbon, then whipped his MPs to sit on their hands when there was a chance to force Blair to honour his promise, saying what the country really wanted as an In/Out referendum, but now we have had the referendum, is seeking to over turn the result.

  27. A.Sedgwick
    Posted September 16, 2018 at 8:45 am | Permalink

    The “bloody difficult woman” is still sticking with Chequers. Other epithets might be more appropriate.

  28. L Jones
    Posted September 16, 2018 at 8:46 am | Permalink

    It seems that too many ill-informed younger people are quite unable to do some of their own research to understand the UK before the EU got its talons into it. They cannot possibly consider that the success of the EU’s plans of total control of erstwhile sovereign countries may be at least partly due to its using the UK as a milch cow. Germany didn’t want to pay for all this themselves – they had Mitteleuropa and hegemony to plan for.

    Who knows how well the UK may have done if it had never been so tied to the EU? They’d hardly have ignored us, knowing where the money was. Remainders speak as though membership of the EU has been the pinnacle of our achievements, and we will collapse without its ‘support’. We’ve done ourselves no favours in many ways by sincerely attempting to make erstwhile enemies our friends, without being the least bit suspicious of their long term intentions and self-interest.

  29. William Long
    Posted September 16, 2018 at 8:50 am | Permalink

    I am afraid it has never been the way of journalists to spoil a good story with the truth and I see little sign of it happening now. Neither are May and Hammond and their ilk likely to as al this rubbish chimes well with their BRINA position.

  30. hans christian ivers
    Posted September 16, 2018 at 9:00 am | Permalink

    JR,

    A good summary but with the latest imaginary report outcome from the ERG group about trillions of Pounds in 15 years, (fake news) and none realistic proposal for the Irish border and various other unrealistic forecasts. I think we can say that both sides need some reality checks

  31. Andy
    Posted September 16, 2018 at 9:17 am | Permalink

    These latest ‘project fear’ stories came from the Brexit department. They are from the technical notices. The release of these was something Brexiteers had demanded for a long time to show we were prepared for a no-deal. Now they are being released, as Brexiteers demanded, you do not like them. This is unsurprising as they lay out the stark implications of your folly. Let’s deal with each of your points in turn.

    1 – Roaming.
    Mobile companies used to make huge money from data roaming across the EU – but were banned from doing so in 2017. EEA countries also follow this rule which is why it applies to Norway and Iceland. Contrary to your claims it does not apply in Turkey though some operators choose not to charge roaming costs in Turkey. On a recent visit to Switzerland – not in the EU – I was charged £5 per day to roam. Some operators may choose not to reintroduce charges but you’ll note that none willingly abolished roaming until they were forced to. This year the EU also introduced a new rule allowing Europeans to access their own streaming content across the single market. Your UK Netflix and Amazon Prime account etc are now portable. Until Brexit.

    2 Trade deals
    70 odd countries have trade deals with the EU. Just 6 – all small African ones – have so far agreed to roll them over. Note, these 6 have not offered the UK a better deal than we have now. Dr Fox and David Davis said better deals would be easy. The 6 have agreed to leave in place the same deal. Meanwhile, South Korea – for one – has expressed serious concerns about maintaining the UK deal. And several countries – including the US have raised objections about U.K. schedules in the WTO. Since the referendum the EU has agreed huge comprehensive trade deals with Canada and Japan. Negotiations are advancing with Australia and New Zealand. The UK has agreed nothing with no-one. Our home grown trade negotiators have so few skills that we had to hire a foreigner to negotiate for us.

    3 Queues
    It is inevitable that Brexit will lead to queues at ports. The question is how long those queues will be. The government is working on the assumption that they will be long – which is why they are working on Operation Brock – the Brexiteers plan to turn the M20 into a lorry park. To think, Kent used to vote Tory. It is also worth remembering that Vote Leave promised Brexit meant ‘taking back control of our borders’ – and now Mr Redwood and others think the way for us to do this is simply to wave lorries through. Hmmm. The Home Secretary has also pledged to introduce British only passport queues at airports – despite being told, by airports, that this will lead to longer queues for Britons and shorter queues for everyone else. Still, it will be more time for you all to admire your French made blue passports.

    4 Drugs
    Drug companies have confirmed that they are now stockpiling more medicines. The Brexit department asked them to. The EMA has left London, taking thousands of good jobs with it. Some drug companies have also moved parts of their operations to the EU. Others have warned of extra bureaucracy and expense. As usual the Brexiteers know best. Nobody intends to stop supplying the NHS – but it will become more expensive to do so. Before Brexit a drug only had to be approved once across the single market. Now we need a new regulator in the UK meaning that process has to take place twice. This extra Brexit red tape costs money. Because the UK is leaving Euratom its compliance with international nuclear rules fall away meaning cancer patients needing some radioisotopes may not get treatment because it will be illegal to supply the UK with nuclear material.

    5. Economy
    The UK went from being the fastest growing G7 country to the slowest after the vote. While the rest of the world is booming our growth is anaemic. We were kept out of recession only by the collapse in the pound and the fact that we were pulled along by everyone else doing so well.

    5 – House prices
    House price growth has halved across the country – and prices are now falling in London. The rest of the country usually follows London. It is the Bank of England’s job to prepare for all risks. Mr Carney – a Remainer – is doing his job diligently. He is rightly concerned about the Brexit risk to house prices and he has raised it with ministers. If they ignore him it is clear who is to blame. Ah, cry the Brexiteers, the Bank did not spot the 2008 crash coming! That is true. But then at the time the Bank was led by Mervyn King. He is an old white man who, in 2016, backed Brexit – but in the last week has been on TV bemoaning how awfully Brexit is going.

    6 Aviation
    Aviation is a rules based business. When a French airline flies a plane full of Dutch passengers from Heathrow to Rome via Berlin on an Airbus jet, who has jurisdiction? We can not be involved in EU aviation safety bodies because they are governed by the rules of the ECJ. So we need our own safety bodies which we do not have. We need to renegotiate hundreds of bilateral deals to enable our planes to fly. We probably will do this but the terms may not be as good. For example the Americans are already offering a worse deal than the one we have.

    The one point I agreee with you in is that journalists are being negligent. They are being negligent because they continue to treat Brexiteers as credible. The stunning photograph from last week’s EEG launch of its economic plan in which the leading Brexiteers literally all have their heads in their hands says more than words ever can. Brexit is a farce. And you all know it.

    Reply This is a better effort at disinformation, in a less aggressive style. I have answered all these points before. For example, we take back control of our borders by being free to put in new rules to control who receives benefits and who can work here. We never said we wanted to stop people coming here with new blocks at Dover of Heathrow. The NHS already has to go through an expensive testing and approvals system for any drug it buys and uses, under the work of NICE. That will remain the same once we are out. EU airlines continue to sell tickets to fly to London after 29 March, as they know they will be able to do so.Are you suggesting they are lying and wrongly selling tickets they cannot honour? There is no need for new queues at ports owing to Brexit. We will tax and check goods coming in through electronic manifests and computers and inspections away from the border point as we do now. Etc

    • L Jones
      Posted September 16, 2018 at 5:16 pm | Permalink

      Gosh, Andy – that was better out than in, wasn’t it?

    • Andy
      Posted September 16, 2018 at 6:38 pm | Permalink

      Except that the vast majority of people who are experts in the fields of trade, aviation, borders, migration etc think you are not just wrong but that you are horribly wrong.

      I have asked before, and have never had an answer, what if they are right and you are not? This matters to my country and my children and we should not be expected to put it all on faith. Why should we believe the ERG when you have been proven repeatedly wrong on Brexit?

      • Edward2
        Posted September 17, 2018 at 6:55 am | Permalink

        Why do you still believe these experts when their previous predictions can be seen not to have come true?

        • Mitchel
          Posted September 17, 2018 at 9:31 am | Permalink

          And “faith” can move mountains!

    • Original Richard
      Posted September 16, 2018 at 9:28 pm | Permalink

      Andy,

      Roaming charges, queues of lorries on the M20, availability of drugs and flights between the UK and the EU will all be dependent upon how nasty the EU wants to be.

      We’re currently “waving through” EU lorries, and we are proposing to do so after Brexit but will retain the right to make changes in the future which we cannot do as a member of the EU.

      I shall be very happy for the UK to have its own regulators and testing procedures after the massive German diesel emissions testing scam defrauded millions of UK motorists without compensation.

      If house prices were to fall, as the Governor of the BoE predicts, then I would expect all young people to now be voting for Brexit in the same numbers as they voted for the elimination of university tuition fees.

      We will benefit enormously from being able to negotiate our own trade deals.This is because the EU is representing many different countries each with their own interests.

      So, firstly it will be very difficult and time consuming for the EU to strike a deal and secondly there is absolutely no guarantee that any trade deal will actually benefit the UK, and could even be detrimental to our interests.

      Finally, no-one knows how well the economy will perform in or out of the EU, although at the moment we are paying £20bn/year (£15bn/year loss of control, £10bn net/year) for membership of a CU with which we have a £100bn/year trading deficit. Trading on WTO terms cannot be any worse and most likely will improve as more manufacturing and farming will need to take place in the UK.

      Not that the economy is important compared to being a free and independent country able to make our own laws, control our immigration, military, elections and internet access, decide our taxes, trade and foreign policies and have the ability to elect and remove our leaders.

  32. Rien Huizer
    Posted September 16, 2018 at 9:49 am | Permalink

    Mr Redwood,

    Another cleverly crafted piece of propaganda. The items you mention are either put out of context, misquoted by the press or simply uncertain. For instance the 35% fall in house prices is merely a worst case number put into the Bank’s DSGE model and the result of such a large fall in prices (over a period of 3 years according to the MPC summary) would still not exhaust the regulatory capital of the UK baning system. Is such a fall likely? Not really. Possible? Of course. A rerun of the 2008 crisis could easily run into such losses, since similar falls have happened in several housing markets around the 2008 crisis, but not the UK at the time.

    Regarding medicines, roaming, food (and the just in time manufacturing systems employed by many manufacturing industries) these depend on two things: applicable regulatory regimes and de novo border formalities. Unilateral action on the part of the UK cannot prevent that EU borders would have to be policed by the relevant EU countries. Even if the UK would drop all tariffs and unilaterally decided to maintain EU regulatory standards, traffic would still stop at the borders, inspections would take place, etc. Even in case the EU would offer the UK the same treatment as Ukraine or Norway, there would be border friction. There is of course the MFN aspect to UK unilateral action. Whatever is afforded to EU states, has to be offered to all WTO members, in theory at least.

    My point is that this summing up of badly presented versions of things that could go wrong does not lead to the conclusion that there would be nothing to fear. Maybe Prof. Minford should construct a model that does not ignore transitional effects and costs. The BoE might even lend a helping hand. Their DSGE model (COMPASS) is especially focussed on modeling the short term effects of shocks. Everything that the ERG puts out either lacks plausible evidence, or simply omits the inconvenient aspects of leaving on hostile terms. So much for the “Project Have No Fear”.

    • stred
      Posted September 16, 2018 at 2:27 pm | Permalink

      According to some latest reports, the 35% drop in house prices was indeed a worst case scenario for the banks and Carney was reporting to the cabinet. Someone leaked the story to the press as a forecast and the BBC and others eagerly took it up as an anti- Brexit piece of propaganda. By the time it had been proved wrong, the public will have been fed the fake news and at least half of them will believe it.

      David Davis was on LBC explaining his decision to oppose Chequers when a regular anti-Brexit caller ( Jason) told everyone that he worked in the import area and had clients who could not, even now, place orders for drugs with EU manufacturers because they could not do so legally. He has called with similar stories about plane being grounded the minute after we leave. Perhaps this is because the Commission refuses to negotiate the details of a deal until we agree the ransom, but it clearly must be nonsense. Which company is going to refuse to sell to a non-EU country when they already supply the ROW or sell airline tickets.

      The ERG need to get some investigator to find the names of these leakers and callers. It would be surprising if they were not being coordinated by the campaign run from Millbank, which merged all the groups including foreign moneybags with a globalist agenda. Expose the plotters for the liars they are.

    • libertarian
      Posted September 16, 2018 at 7:28 pm | Permalink

      Andy

      The 3 Network removed roaming charges BEFORE the EU mandated it

      Vodafone removed roaming charges in 48 countries

      You might want to check the last quarter UK economy GDP, and wage growth and unemployment rates

      The CAA have repeatedly confirmed that they see no problems with international air space. You also seem totally unaware that UK air traffic control manages North Atlantic air movements from Europe to North America

      House Prices, whoops slightly undone by the former Goldman Sachs banker ( who didn’t see the 2008 crash coming) Mark Carney now going back on what he said and claiming that he didn’t think prices would fall…

      The EMA has a total staff of 600 and so far hasnt actually moved as the proposed move to Holland isn’t ready yet and anyway the city of Milan has lodged a complaint about the move

      Er what makes you think that the EU is the only regulator of drugs? New drugs already have to be approved in a number of different markets

      Every month the UK exports 45 million packs of medicines to the EU and EEA countries, and imports 37 million. The scare story is, IF there were delays at ports some refrigerated drugs would suffer, what you mean just like now when the French regularly go on strike in Calais

    • David Price
      Posted September 16, 2018 at 7:30 pm | Permalink

      Regarding your comment medicines, food etc you and all the other sock puppets don’t explain how the EU will legally block or ban exports to the UK.

      • Stred
        Posted September 17, 2018 at 6:51 am | Permalink

        I don’t think Rien is a pock suppet, just a bit too clever and he hasn’t been over the Swiss borders with the EU recently. Being Dutch, he doesn’t like mountains.

        • David Price
          Posted September 17, 2018 at 10:19 am | Permalink

          Good point.

        • Dennis Zoff
          Posted September 18, 2018 at 1:25 am | Permalink

          Stred

          I agree with your comment, but not the bit about the Dutch and mountains.

          To be a little picky, the Dutch love mountains (well in my family they do) and drive a long way through Germany and France to get to one….if you have ever been on the French or German motorways during holiday season, you would have noticed many Dutch vehicles beating a path to the mountainous regions, particularly in winter.

          I would be most surprised if Rien is not a fan of Mountains?

      • Rien Huizer
        Posted September 17, 2018 at 12:54 pm | Permalink

        Wrong, about six weeks ago.

        • Stred
          Posted September 18, 2018 at 1:05 pm | Permalink

          How long did you have to wait?

      • Rien Huizer
        Posted September 17, 2018 at 1:07 pm | Permalink

        I was not referring to the case that the EU would block exports to the UK (although it is quite concivable that certain items would be restricted, for instance if there was scarcity within the EU or for tother reasons. Export bans do exist.

        But of course the much more probable situation is the EU applying friction to goods entering from the UK (one reason why the Irish are looking for alternatives for the exiting traffic pattern). That would hurt UK exporters, especially the ones who rely on very fine schedules or export perishables.

        • David Price
          Posted September 18, 2018 at 3:49 am | Permalink

          So you are saying that Ireland, still an EU member, is so concerned that France or the Nederlands, also EU members, would impose such burdensome customs procedures on freight that they are looking to bypass their largest market entirely?

          I would imagine this freight transiting through the UK would be using the TIR process – would the EU really discriminate against such commerce because it was transiting through the UK … so much for a rules based regime.

  33. Drachma
    Posted September 16, 2018 at 9:54 am | Permalink

    It’s no wonder we are getting nowhere with the EU if our negotiaters are all talking in the same way as M Gove..M Gove speak..Carney is doing a good job now..two months ago he wasn’t..jeez

    • miami.mode
      Posted September 16, 2018 at 1:54 pm | Permalink

      Drachma, some men have a sock drawer. Michael Gove seems to have a wardrobe full of hats and he chooses to select a different one to wear fairly frequently.

  34. Denis Cooper
    Posted September 16, 2018 at 10:19 am | Permalink

    On the Andrew Marr show this morning Michael Gove claimed that after we have left the EU under the Chequers plan the House of Commons would have the power to authorise departures from the so-called “common rulebook” – which would in reality be the EU’s rulebook – on everything to do with goods.

    So let us see that unilateral national right written into the withdrawal agreement.

    Of course he knows very well what would happen if we did try that on without such a right having been expressly recognised in the treaty, and if he didn’t know then the Norwegians and the Swiss could tell him.

  35. JustGetOnWithBrexit
    Posted September 16, 2018 at 10:24 am | Permalink

    A denial by the Bank about a fall in house prices…not seen that one yet. No surprise there.
    …………………………………………………………………………….
    Project Fear Awards for September 2018.

    Best Scaremonger —> The Bank of England,
    Best Supporting Act —> The BBC.

  36. DUNCAN
    Posted September 16, 2018 at 10:25 am | Permalink

    Liam Fox backs May to lead the Tories into the next General Election

    I don’t what Fox’s plan is but I know one thing. If this woman is leading my party at the next GE I WILL NOT VOTE TORY

    I am not voting for a party that is lead by a liar and a liberal left (authoritarian ed).

    May is poison through and through. Her instincts are authoritarian and her desire to betray the people’s will is nothing short of a threat to democracy itself

    We are now ruled by a pro-EU……….. elite who will not tolerate dissent and opposition

    • Steve
      Posted September 16, 2018 at 12:37 pm | Permalink

      Duncan

      “Liam Fox backs May to lead the Tories into the next General Election”

      Yes it’s incredible isn’t it ?

      You’d think think he and the rest of the goblins would realise it’s the kiss of death.

  37. English Pensioner
    Posted September 16, 2018 at 10:38 am | Permalink

    When these scares come along, particularly those about travel to the EU, I just ask myself “How do other non-EU countries manage”? Last time I was in Germany there were lots of American, Chinese and Japanese tourists; how on earth did they manage to get there? As for the various food and medicine shortages, do the people who believe that really believe that the US and other countries won’t rush to fill the gap and try to take over as our regular suppliers?
    As for phone charges, my daughter has recently returned from a business trip and the company paid for her calls, so she’s not worried; when she’s on holiday, she’s on holiday and may just make a call to tell us she’s arrived safely, but that’s all. People addicted to their smart phones on holiday deserve all they get!!
    A lot of fuss about nothing.

    • Christine
      Posted September 16, 2018 at 12:39 pm | Permalink

      Three mobile provides free roaming in 71 countries.

      • hefner
        Posted September 16, 2018 at 5:02 pm | Permalink

        As advised by JR, one has to check the exact wording of the contract, as some UK providers (funnily the bigger ones) might restrict the total amount of Gbytes of free roaming. I have a 15 Gb/month in the UK limited to a so called fair usage outside the country. And this fair usage is in fact 3 Gb in any 60 days within a 120 day period. It is obviously more than OK for emails but you don’t want to watch any long debate in the HoC, as very quickly you might be charged around £5 per additional Gb over the fair usage.

      • old salt
        Posted September 16, 2018 at 8:01 pm | Permalink

        And at what cost to those who do not travel out of the UK. My PAYG charge went up 57% overnight to cover those who do. How fair is that?

    • Andy
      Posted September 16, 2018 at 2:48 pm | Permalink

      Nobody has said that after Brexit you will not be able to travel to the EU. Doing so will be more expensive, more bureaucratic and pointlessly harder – but you will still be able to do it.

      If you want to live, work, study or retire to the EU – as more than 1 million Britons have done it will be much harder than it is now. Those of us with assets will still be able to do it. But lots of the sorts of penisoners who’ve made their homes in Spain and Portugal over recent decades will no longer be able to. That is what you voted for.

      • Edward2
        Posted September 16, 2018 at 3:33 pm | Permalink

        What changes have the EU said they would actually bring in to make it significantly more difficult?
        Or are you just making things up as usual andy?

      • Christine
        Posted September 16, 2018 at 6:40 pm | Permalink

        Andy, What a load of rubbish. Where I stay in Spain it’s full of Russians, South Americans, Chinese, Norwegians who live there. All people have to provide for themselves, as benefits are almost non-existent.
        There will always be winners and losers but the 65 million residents in the UK have to trump the 1.2 million living in EU countries. Brexit is about
        more than holidays and mobile phones. It’s about the future sovereignty of our country. You might want to live in the EU dictatorship where you can’t elect the people who make the laws but I don’t.

      • Jagman84
        Posted September 16, 2018 at 7:16 pm | Permalink

        Illegal migrants do not seem to have any problems entering and living in the EU, normally at our expense. I am sure that British citizens, with their own means of support, will be still welcomed. Such individuals moved to live in the Iberian peninsula way before we joined the EU.

      • Steve
        Posted September 16, 2018 at 9:48 pm | Permalink

        Andy

        “But lots of the sorts of penisoners who’ve made their homes in Spain and Portugal over recent decades will no longer be able to.”

        Oh dear what a shame my heart bleeds.

    • fedupsoutherner
      Posted September 16, 2018 at 7:18 pm | Permalink

      English Pensioner. You have taken the words right out of my mouth. When we lived in Spain we swapped homes and cars with some Canadians and they or we had no problems at all driving in each others countries. People travel all across the world every day. It’s called tourism or business. It’s normal. Not unusual. I hardly use my mobile on holiday. It’s a chance to get away from normality. If I have to pay a bit more then so be it. It would be worth it.

  38. Prigger
    Posted September 16, 2018 at 11:40 am | Permalink

    Mayor Khan has just come down with a terribly new idea. It is to be hoped he gets better. We are.

  39. hellbent
    Posted September 16, 2018 at 12:29 pm | Permalink

    What is happening today is much worse than project fear- it is disaster staring this whole country straight in the face and it’s the young people who will pay the price and for generations to come. In a few years time JR and his pals will have taken to the hills, if they have not already marked out a spot for themselves in the Lords- I’ve nothing more to say

    Reply Not disaster, but opportunity for a better life

    • hellbent
      Posted September 17, 2018 at 10:55 am | Permalink

      Yes JR, but better for the 19th century

  40. Steve
    Posted September 16, 2018 at 12:29 pm | Permalink

    Alison

    “If MPs vote through Chequers because it is a vote of confidence in Mrs May, then that is simply treachery to the nation. Chequers signs away sovereignty to a third party – laws & regulations on goods and ECJ. I would march them to the Tower. My only comfort is that their constituents would make sure they are not voted in again. ”

    Well just about every conservative MP is by now aware there will be serious repercussions if they do us over.

    However their apparent arrogance in thinking they can get away with it defies belief, and any politician who does really needs to think again.

    Not being electable could end up being the least of their worries.

    They have been warned.

    Reply Opponents of Chequers have made clear we will vote against the measures needed to bring the Withdrawal Agreement into UK law, but not in favour of a motion of no confidence in the government where a government defeat could bring about a General Election. Under the 5 Year Parliament Act the motion has to be an express motion of confidence, not a motion about some part of the government’s proposals.

    • Iago
      Posted September 16, 2018 at 4:13 pm | Permalink

      I am unclear about this 5Year Parliament Act. I was surprised that May was able to call an election in 2017, two years after the 2015 one. I just put it down to everyone ignoring the law, just like the police refusing to enforce the criminal law.

  41. Christine
    Posted September 16, 2018 at 12:36 pm | Permalink

    You need to get the message out that the EU isn’t standing still. It is fast moving towards the United States of Europe. The British public are being fed a bias, one-sided view, by our MSM. Where’s the in-depth analysis of Jean-Claude Juncker’s State of the Union Address? The British people are being kept in the dark about the EU plans for the future. This speech wasn’t even made available in English. Proposals include – Qualified majority voting on foreign policy; controlling elections; controlling the internet; controlling borders. Do people really want this much power put into the hands of the unelected EU Commission? Be in no doubt the EU is a dictatorship.

  42. Brian Tomkinson
    Posted September 16, 2018 at 12:50 pm | Permalink

    JR: “How much more of this nonsense do we have to listen to?”
    Plenty, as long as Mrs May is PM. She is an unreformed Remainer. What is needed, now more than ever, is a PM who realyy believes in taking the UK out of the EU and who will enthusiastically embrace all the consequential positive opportunities. What we have is someone who wants to give the impression of delivering the result of the referendum but only in the form of rhetoric whilst taking action to keep us under EU domination. The scale of the duplicity and mendacity is disgraceful.

  43. Robin Wilcox
    Posted September 16, 2018 at 1:59 pm | Permalink

    Unfortunately a lot of people were frightened into voting Remain because of these stories. Had the Remain campaign not resorted to these tactics then Leave would have won by a much greater margin. Not many have a high opinion of the EU.

  44. JustGetOnWithBrexit
    Posted September 16, 2018 at 2:56 pm | Permalink

    May has another think coming, if she thinks she can treat voters with utter contempt, and try to fool the Electorate into accepting her “Faux Brexit”.

    This Leader will be remembered in history, as the Prime Minister who was presented with a golden opportunity for her Country, yet managed to “snatch defeat from the jaws of victory”.

    • The Prangwizard
      Posted September 16, 2018 at 5:11 pm | Permalink

      Trouble is, she is doing it, she knows it, she doesn’t care. She’s sure she can get away with it. She sees herself as a Merkel of the UK, to whom she likes to defer, to be around for years doing more or less whatever she wants as Merkel does. There’s no-one who dares challenge her, shame on them.

  45. mancunius
    Posted September 16, 2018 at 3:24 pm | Permalink

    And now we have the BBC searching out advocates of a second referendum to interview. ‘Well no, we don’t call it that,’ said its spokesman cheerfully, we call it ‘the people’s vote’.

    Its object is clear: to have three alternatives, of which one will be – as in 2016 – remain in the EU, and the other two will be attempts to split the Leave vote. (Justine Greening already acted as its stalking-horse in the HoC, to noises of approval even on her side.)

    If Parliament agrees to this, it will be clear that democracy has been replaced by totalitarian coercion. Why would the tyranny of a Westminster parliament whose politicians, determined to act in the interests of their own personal career, ignoring the will of the people, be any whit better than tyrannical rule from Brussels?

  46. mancunius
    Posted September 16, 2018 at 3:27 pm | Permalink

    ‘ignoringignore the will of the people’ etc

  47. Roy Grainger
    Posted September 16, 2018 at 3:50 pm | Permalink

    Mark Carney has said there could be a 30%+ fall in house prices. So more affordable housing for first-time buyers !

  48. Newmania
    Posted September 16, 2018 at 7:18 pm | Permalink

    1-Article 50 says the “Treaties shall cease to apply to the State …two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2” No-one has to cancel anything there is nothing to cancel
    2- The Government issued warnings on food and medicine
    3-If there are no checks at the border will the UK the UK comply with WTO quotas and tariffs ?
    3- The 35% House Price fall was a projection presented by the Bank of England.

  49. Original Richard
    Posted September 16, 2018 at 9:56 pm | Permalink

    It feels like the only threat not yet applied by the EU and its UK collaborators (Roman Catholic Europe) to the break from (the Treaty of) Rome is the outright use of trade sanctions (the Armada).

    • Dead Warrior
      Posted September 17, 2018 at 5:22 pm | Permalink

      I do love the use of putting our Brexit struggle in terms of warfare of a kind.
      In reflects the march to battle for our Country over our heart’s glorious landscape.
      It’s one angle on it, also

  50. Kevin
    Posted September 17, 2018 at 8:39 pm | Permalink

    Item 5 you talk about stable house market after brexit vote. Wonder what stable means in your language?. My house value in Wokinghsm has droped by 10 percent since the brexit vote.

    Reply Average house prices have not fallen

  • About John Redwood


    John Redwood won a free place at Kent College, Canterbury, and graduated from Magdalen College Oxford. He is a Distinguished fellow of All Souls, Oxford. A businessman by background, he has set up an investment management business, was both executive and non executive chairman of a quoted industrial PLC, and chaired a manufacturing company with factories in Birmingham, Chicago, India and China. He is the MP for Wokingham, first elected in 1987.

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